The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.161 after placing a high of 105.514 and a low of 105.034. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bearish throughout the day. The rising uncertainties in the market related to US stimulus, vaccine development, global economic recovery, and the US November presidential elections gave a push to safe-haven appeal that supported safe-haven Japanese Yen and weighed on USD/JPY pair.
The currency pair dropped on Wednesday to one week’s lowest level as the hopes for the next round of US stimulus package before elections fell after Nancy Pelosi said that the newly proposed package of $1.8 trillion by President Trump would be not sufficient to provide support to economic recovery from the pandemic and deep recession.
Another reason behind the faded risk sentiment was the latest news about the vaccine trials from different candidates. Earlier this week, Johnson & Johnson halted their coronavirus vaccine’s clinical trials due to an unexpected illness in one of the participants. And on Wednesday, the Eli Lilly and Co. also stopped its vaccine’s trials for coronavirus, and this raised concerns that without a vaccine, the economic recovery will be slow. These concerns added in demand for safe-haven and raised the Japanese Yen that ultimately weighed on the USD/JPY pair.
On the data front, the Revised Industrial Production from Japan for August dropped to 1.0% from the forecasted 1.7% and weighed on the Japanese Yen. The PPI and the Core PPI data from the United States for September raised to 0.4% from 0.2% of forecasts and supported the US dollar. Macroeconomic data from both sides supported the USD/JPY pair but failed to reverse the direction as the investors were focusing on the rising number of uncertainties in the market.
Meanwhile, the 2020 World Bank Group-IMF Annual Meetings started on October 12th to 18th, in which global finance leaders warned that the fragile recovery would be crushed by the failure to stop the spread of coronavirus, maintain stimulus, and rising debts in developing nations.
Global poverty has been raised to the highest levels for the first time in 2 decades due to the coronavirus crisis. Developing nations had been hit hard by the pandemic as the debts for recovering through the crisis rose in developing nations to alarming levels. The annual meetings’ agenda was to take necessary actions to build a strong foundation for a strong recovery that would help all countries.
The US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin urged both global institutions IMF and World Bank on Wednesday to work thoughtfully within their existing resources to battle the coronavirus pandemic. Mnuchin also urged G20 nations to approve a proposed debt restructuring framework.
The rising hopes that developing nations will be getting help to recover from the pandemic also raised the market’s risk sentiment that limited additional losses in USD/JPY prices on Wednesday.
Furthermore, on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida said that the US economic data has been shockingly strong since May, but the output will still take another year to climb back to its pre-pandemic level. Clarida’s comments raised uncertainty over recovery and supported the Japanese Yen that weighed on the USD/JPY pair.
Daily Support and Resistance
S1 104.26
S2 104.74
S3 104.93
Pivot Point 105.22
R1 105.41
R2 105.7
R3 106.18
The USDJPY pair is trading with a selling bias below an immediate resistance level of 105.349 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the USD/JPY has formed a downward channel that’s extending resistance at 105.349. Closing of candles beneath this level is likely to keep the USD/JPY pair in a selling mode until the 105.050 mark, conversely, the bullish breakout of the 105.349 level may lead the pair further higher towards the 105.580 level.
Entry Price – Buy 105.245
Stop Loss – 105.645
Take Profit – 104.845
Risk to Reward – 1:1
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40
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