Forex Course

203. Bond Spreads Between Two Economies and Their Exchange Rate


Bond spreads play a vital role in the movement of currencies. The difference between the bond yield of two countries is called interest rate differential. It is more impactful on the currency direction as opposed to the actual bond spreads. The difference between the interest rate between the bond yield of two countries typically moves together with the corresponding currency pair.

Understanding The Impact

The prices of different currencies can influence the monetary policy decision by the central banks across the globe. However, monetary policy decisions, as well as interest rates, can also contribute to the price movement of the currencies. For example, a stronger currency will help control the inflation rate, whereas the weaker currency will contribute to inflation.

Additionally, the central banks harness this relationship as a means to manage the monetary policies in the respective countries. By comprehending as well as assessing these relationships and the patterns, people get a window into the currency market, thereby getting a means to forecast and capitalize on the currency movements.

An Example of This Relationship

In 2000, post the tech bubble burst, traders who were earlier looking for the highest returns shifted their focus on capital preservation. However, the U.S. was provided with below 2% interest rate, a lot of hedge funds, and those who had access to the international market moved abroad looking for higher yields.

Moreover, Australia has similar risk factors as the U.S. extended interest rate of 5%. Consequentially, this attracted a lot of investment money within the country, creating asset domination. This significant difference in interest rate resulted in the growth of the carry trade. In this, the investors bought currency from low yielding countries and invested in high yielding countries, and benefited from the difference in the interest rate.

Bond Spreads and Movement Of Currency

Bong spreads differential typically move together with currency pairs. This notion emerges as the capital flows move towards high yielding currencies. When there is an increase in one currency rate with respect to another currency, the investors move towards the higher-yielding currency.

Furthermore, the cost of acquiring lower-yielding currencies rises as the bond spread differential moves in favor of selling currency.

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