“Green sprout” in New Zealand?
Forex Market Update: The increase in building consents in New Zealand which reached 3,407 permits in May, the highest level reached since June 2004, represents 7.1% after the fall of 3.6% registered in April. Will this be a green outbreak of improvement in New Zealand’s macroeconomic conditions or will it be only an isolated effect?
The pair is moving in a bearish wedge pattern which could drive to the price to a new lower low ending the bearish cycle near to the 1.145 zone coinciding with the lower trendline of the bearish wedge. Invalidation level of the downward cycle is at 1.18523.
GBPUSD is moving in a bearish wedge in the same way as the EURUSD. We expect a spike to the PRZ before it makes a reversal move, maybe in the next week. A key level to watch out for is 1.30 as a psychological level. Invalidation level of the bearish cycle is at 1.34725.
The Swiss currency is moving in a triangulation structure which represents a continuation of the previous bullish move. However, as an inverse correlation with EURUSD, the movement could be a false breakout as a bull trap. In this pair, we will maintain in a neutral position before taking a position in the market.
The EURCHF cross is turning bullish after the breakout above the 1.1565 level, a throwback to this level could drive the cross to the 1.1772 short-term targets. RSI is supporting this scenario with the upward trendline.
The GBPCHF 2-hour chart shows the importance of the invalidation level of a proposed scenario and its ex-post analysis. In this cross, we expected a limited retrace to the area between 1.3124 and 1.3089 for an upward move, with the profit target in the area between 1.3323 and 1.3374. However, after the retrace to the blue box, the GBPCHF cross continued falling. Watching the AO oscillator between May 18th and June 1st, we can appreciate that the bearish move corresponds to a bearish wave 3, then the retrace analysed is a wave 4. In consequence, the final movement as a bearish wedge pattern, which should end the bearish cycle.
The FTSE 100 is moving sideways with a bearish bias which is correcting the previous rally realised from March to May. Despite the bearish bias of global indices, we prefer to avoid the short positions expecting the timing for entry in the bullish side.
In the Thursday 28th trading session, DAX 30 fell to the control level finding support to the corrective move. Now we expect consolidation on the 12,100 pts from where the German Index could start a new bullish cycle.