Forex Market Analysis

Daily Review -US-EU Negotiations, Brexit Deal, UK Wages Hike, NAFTA Discussions



Markets stalled on Tuesday as uncertainty over a trade dispute between Washington and Beijing kept investors on edge.


U.S. President Donald Trump wants to impose tariffs on almost all imported Chinese goods .China’s foreign ministry said on Monday that it would respond to any new steps on trade.



US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer just finished a meeting with European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom in Brussels yesterday. Malmstrom said in a tweet that “Lighthizer discussed how the EU-US achieves concrete results in the short to medium term towards a free trade agreement.” And they’ll meet again at the end of September.

Lighthizer’s office described the talks as constructive. Also, work would be done in October to identify tariff and non-tariff barriers that could be cut. And trade chiefs of EU and US will follow up in November to finalize certain results.

However, a deal is not likely to be reached as soon as the White House administration would like



The euro rose on Tuesday as easing concerns about Italian debt boosted the single currency for a second day,

The euro was strengthened by a fall in Italian government borrowing costs this week after Economy Minister Giovanni Tria on Monday predicted yields would drop as the government lays out its much-anticipated budget for 2019


More upbeat talk from the EU negotiator sent sterling higher


Barnier said in a forum in Slovenia that “if we are realistic we are able to reach an agreement on the first stage of the negotiation, which is the Brexit treaty, within 6 or 8 weeks.” And, “taking into account the time necessary for the ratification process, the House of Commons on one side, the European Parliament and the Council on the other side … we must reach an agreement before the beginning of November. I think it is possible.”

What enhances the pound further that wages came strong at 2.6% higher than expected 2.4%, so it would be a confidence builder for pound longs


Canada and the US will restart high-level trade talks in Washington today. Whether it’s still NAFTA or not, the two sides reached a deadlock in three key issues, Canadian dairy market access, cultural exemption for Canada and Chapter 19 dispute resolution mechanism. Not much news is released regarding the discussions as both sides agreed not to negotiate in public.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau just reiterated yesterday that “we continue to work hard and we are positively optimistic that we can get a win-win-win for all three countries.” Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, who’ll be in Washington today, said last week that the negotiation has entered into a “very intense phase” and the officials have been working 24-7.






On the daily chart, we can see that the price had a bearish rally for the past six weeks until it reached the key support zone of 11900.8-11742.4

It’s also the lower side of the descending channel along with 88.6% Fibonacci

The price is technically expected to have its way up back again to the key resistance level 12582.46 which is the top of descending channel and the broken ascending trend



On the daily chart, the price is moving sideways between the support area 66.2-64.15 and the resistance area 74.45-72.45

After breaking the ascending trend, the price turned back to this support zone with bounce from an ascending trend as shown

The price now is retesting this zone with price action “pin bar”, to have a bullish movement again

So, it’s expected to go up to the resistance zone of 72.45-74.45



On the daily chart, the pair is facing a punch of support levels

Firstly the key support level of 0.732, secondly the ascending trend from the low of 2016, third the Gartley harmonic pattern, forth the wedge reversal pattern, and finally the oversold on RSI

So, the price is supposed to get back up again to the resistance 0.762



On the daily chart, the pair was moving bearish on the last two weeks, down from a strong resistance zone

Until it reached the key support of 83.75, followed by the ascending trend line from the low of 2018

After forming pin bar followed by bullish candle, the price is expected to hike again to the zone 86.15-86.9




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