Daily: New Episode of Trade War, Brexit Negotiations, U.S & South Korean Summit

NEWS COMMENTARY

U.S. President Donald Trump and South Korean leader Moon Jae-in will meet in New York on Monday to discuss how to move forward on a formal declaration of the end of the Korean War. Moon met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un last week. “Chairman Kim expressed his wish to finish complete denuclearization at an early date and focus on economic development,” Moon said of his meeting with the North Korean leader in Pyongyang.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia pushed back against a call last week by U.S. President Donald Trump to lower prices. “I do not influence prices,” Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told reporters as OPEC and non-OPEC energy ministers gathered in Algiers. The group of oil producers is in discussion about rising output to counter falling Iranian supplies due to U.S. sanctions but made no formal recommendation for any additional supply boost at its Sunday meeting.

British Prime Minister Theresa May is under attack from several fronts over her Brexit plan. Members of her own party launched an alternative plan for leaving the European Union which would involve ditching her Chequers deal for a cleaner break with the bloc. The main opposition Labour Party are holding their annual conference where members will decide on whether to back a second referendum on the issue. There were also reports over the weekend of a possible snap election in November. Relations with the EU side, meanwhile, continue to be strained.

CHART ANALYSIS

OIL

Last week price continued its ranging move between support at 66.2-64.15 and resistance at 74.45-72.45. After having breached the ascending trend, price turned back to the support zone with a bounce from an ascending trend as shown on the daily chart below. As we expected, price is now “pin bar” reaching the main resistance zone with touching 72.45, we expect bullish momentum to build up towards the 74.45 level. and then wait for a bounce or a break to determine the next move

S&P 500

On the daily chart, the price has broken the key resistance level at 2875.58 and stayed above it to reinforce the bullish bias.

However, we should highlight significant reversal signs, including:

1. Elliot’s Wave 5 has formed;
2. AB=CD harmonic pattern in play.
3. A Wedge reversal pattern remains active.
4. RSI Divergence.

Thus, if price breaks through support at 2875.58 we should witness a correction towards 2797.82.

AUD/USD

On the daily chart, the Aussie is clearly reflecting a bearish bias as it descends down a channel that started forming since the beginning of this year; reaching support at 0.71 where some clear sign of reversal showed up.

We expect reversal/consolidation to develop further as:

1. Price has bounced from the support zone between 0.71-0.716.
2. An AB=CD harmonic pattern is rather suggestive.
3. A Wedge reversal pattern.
4. RSI divergence.

the price manages to stay above 0.7225,then it has the potential of reaching 0.733 and 0.745

USD/CAD

On the daily chart, we observe the Loonie to follow a descending channel since June this year, with a false 2 weeks reversal before continuing its way down.

As we expected before that the price fell further to 1.289 and meet the ascending trend line from March’s Low, coupled with the 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

Now the price located at the key support of 1.289 besides the ascending trend line from the low of 2017. so, any bounce here would expose the price back to 1.312. and any break beneath these levels would continue the bearish bias to 1.272

USD/JPY

On the daily chart, as expected, price is moving upwards to the 113 target, leaving 112 as near-term support. We expect an extension towards the 113 area before resumption of the downside towards at least 109,75.