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Daily: Trade War Fears Fading; Strong Kiwi on NZ GDP Increase; U.K Retail Sales Printing Upward Momentum on the Pound

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NEWS COMMENTARY


 

 

Markets extended their rally on Thursday as U.S.-China trade war fears were set aside and investors focused on bullish macroeconomic and corporate news.

Global markets appear to be shrugging off concerns over an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China

The British Pound got a strong boost following the surprisingly positive UK monthly retail sales figures, coming in to show 0.3% m/m growth in August as against a contraction of 0.2% anticipated. This coupled with some optimistic Brexit comments by the European Commission President Juncker and Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney remained supportive of the strong bid surrounding the cross.

In Europe, attention will be focused on an informal summit of European Union leaders in Austria on Thursday. Brexit and immigration are set to be the main points of discussion. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May, under pressure at home and abroad to achieve a workable Brexit deal, has called for “goodwill” and flexibility from her EU counterparts. The future of the Irish/Northern Irish border remains a stumbling block in talks.

The New Zealand dollar jumped to three-week highs after strong domestic GDP data showed the country’s economy grew at the fastest pace in two years in the second quarter.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy, thereby stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB remains at –0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at between –1.25% and –0.25%. The SNB will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration. Since the monetary policy assessment of June 2018, the Swiss franc has appreciated noticeably, against the major currencies as well as against emerging market currencies. The Swiss franc is highly valued, and the situation on the foreign exchange market is still fragile. The negative interest rate and the SNB’s willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary remain essential in order to keep the attractiveness of Swiss franc investments low and thus ease pressure on the currency.

 


CHART ANALYSIS


 

OIL

Last week price continued its ranging move between support at 66.2-64.15 and resistance at 74.45-72.45. After having breached the ascending trend, price turned back to the support zone with a bounce from an ascending trend as shown on the daily chart below. Price is now “pin bar” retesting this zone, as we expect bullish momentum to build up towards the 72.45-74.45 level.



S&P 500

On the daily chart, the price has broken the key resistance level at 2875.58 and stayed above it to reinforce the bullish bias.

However, we should highlight significant reversal signs, including:

1. Elliot’s Wave 5 has formed;
2. AB=CD harmonic pattern in play.
3. A Wedge reversal pattern remains active.
4. RSI Divergence.

Thus, if price breaks through support at 2875.58 we should witness a correction towards 2797.82.



AUD/USD

On the daily chart, the Aussie is clearly reflecting a bearish bias as it descends down a channel that started forming since the beginning of this year; reaching support at 0.71 where some clear sign of reversal showed up.

We expect reversal/consolidation to develop further as:

1. Price has bounced from the support zone between 0.71-0.716.
2. An AB=CD harmonic pattern is rather suggestive.
3. A Wedge reversal pattern.
4. RSI divergence.

the price manages to stay above 0.7225,then it has the potential of reaching 0.733 and 0.745



USD/CAD

On the daily chart, we observe the Loonie to follow a descending channel since June this year, with a false 2 weeks reversal before continuing its way down.

We expect price to fall further to 1.289 and meet the ascending trend line from March’s Low, coupled with the 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)



USD/CHF

On the 4H chart, price is moving in a broadening wedge while breaking through the continuous Rectangle pattern at 0.9652. A correction has been already made to this level at the descending trend of the wedge. so, any reverse will take the price back to 0.956



USD/JPY

On the daily chart, price is moving upwards to the 113 target, leaving 112 as near-term support. We expect an extension towards the 113 area before resumption of the downside towards at least 109,75.



 

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