On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 99.49 amid thin holiday trading. The economic calendar is a bit muted, but the only focus today will be on the U.S. Labor Department will release the March import price index (-3.2% on month expected).
Economic Events to Watch Today
EUR/USD – Daily Analysis
The EUR/USD found bids and crossed above 1.09 level while representing 0.37% gains, mainly due to the recent broad-based U.S. dollar weakness after risk recovery in the market sentiment in the wake of fresh measured optimism about coronavirus outbreak.
The fresh uptick in the oil prices and above-forecast China trade data also helping restore the risk-sentiment. At the moment, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0941 and consolidates in the range between the 1.0893 – 1.0967.
At the coronavirus front, Australia has shown very sharp declines in the virus cases as compared to other countries and also registered declines in the death toll as per the latest report. Meanwhile, India’s flow is starting to drop, as the growth rate of new cases has consecutively declined after April 6. Moreover, the discussion of easing restrictions on activity is taking attention in the U.S. and other parts of the world.
On the other hand, the above-forecast China trade data, especially imports, which registered a growth of 2.4%, contradicting expectations for a 2.4% decline, and the uptick in the crude oil prices, is helping improve the risk sentiment.
The EUR currency got supported by multiple factors, the figures of newly infected peoples and death toll showing a sign slowing down across the hotspots in Europe and boosted the sentient around the shared currency. The Eurogroup has reached a half a trillion euros virus rescue package gave further support to the common currency bulls.
Looking forward, the USD moves and virus updates will continue to play an important role. Traders will keep their eyes on the G7 meeting for the fresh trading sentiment.
Daily Support and Resistance
- S1 1.0772
- S2 1.0847
- S3 1.0877
- Pivot Point 1.0923
- R1 1.0953
- R2 1.0998
- R3 1.1073
EUR/USD– Trading Tips
Last week, the EUR/USD violated the asymmetric triangle pattern, which has lead the EUR/USD prices further higher towards the next resistance level of 1.09299 area. The long-held trading range of 1.0922 – 1.0765 as it’s been already violated, and now the pair is holding above this level.
At this moment, the EUR/USD is holding at 1.09320, having an immediate support level of around 1.09060, where the bearish breakout of this level can extend selling until the next support level of 1.0846 and 1.07990. Conversely, the resistance stays at 1.0970 and 1.1035. The MACD is tossing above and below 0, converting the bearish sentiment into bullish and vice versa. Let’s consider staying bullish over 1.0960 today.
GBP/USD– Daily Analysis
Today in the Asian trading hours, the GBP/USD currency pair found bids and hit the monthly high near above 1.2550, mainly due to fresh declines in the broad-based U.S. dollar in the wake of risk-on market sentiment. As well as, the latest statement that the UK PM Boris Johnson has discharged from the hospital and still recovering from coronavirus, this news also helped the pairs quote. The GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2568 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2504 – 1.2574. However, the currency pair traders did not give any major attention to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis at home because the cases are comparatively larger in the U.S.
At the U.K. Crisis front, the United Kingdoms’ coronavirus death toll rose above 11,000, but the buyers are ignoring this probably because the death toll is comparatively larger in the U.S. almost 20,000 deaths have been registered so far.
On the other hand, the reason behind the pair’s bullish moves could also be the UK PM Boris Johnson’s health recovery as Johnson left the hospital. Though, The Guardian relied on his spokesman to say that He is “focusing on recovery.”
On the negative side, there are many chances to extend the U.K. lockdown for another month. Sir Patrick Vallance, Government Chief Scientific Adviser, said that the deaths toll from coronavirus could continue to rise this week or that could last for up to 3-weeks. It is worth mentioning that Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS (National Health Services) Providers, indicates the lack of medical supplies.
Daily Support and Resistance
- S1 1.2366
- S2 1.2436
- S3 1.2474
- Pivot Point 1.2505
- R1 1.2544
- R2 1.2575
- R3 1.2645
GBP/USD– Trading Tip
The GBP/USD is trading with a bullish bias over 1.2500 to trade around 1.2496 but still holds within a sideways channel. The GBP/USD sideways channel has already been violated as the GBP/USD is holding around 1.2520 and along with resistance around 1.2770. Considering the weakness in the U.S. dollar, the chances of selling remains low, but the bullish bias remains solid over 1.2500 level.
Since the resistance level of 1.2500 has already been violated, we may see GBP/USD prices going towards the next resistance level of 1.2720. The MACD and 50 EMA are also supporting the bullish bias, so let’s consider taking buying trades over 1.2432 with a target of 1.2500 first and then buying over 1.2500 to target 1.2610.
USD/JPY – Daily Analysis
the USD/JPY currency pair failed to continue its winning moves and dropped to 2-weeks low near the 107.53, mainly due to the fresh losses in the broad-based U.S. dollar in the wake of risk-on market sentiment. On the flip side, the risk-on market sentiment also weakened the Japanese yen and helped limit the downside in the currency pair, at least for the time being.
The USD/JPY is trading at 107.69 and consolidates in the range between the 107.53 – 107.81. The reason behind the global risk-on market sentiment could also be better-than-expected Chinse trade data, which keeps the U.S. dollar U.S.wer and provided the goodish boost to the riskier currencies.
At the data front, the data showed China’s exports improved in March and fell 6-6% YoY as compared to a 17.2% slide in the previous month. Moreover, imports reversed the previous month’s decline and rose 2.4% during the reported month.
While the futures on the S&P 500 are representing a 1.27% gain at press time and the U.S. dollar U.S.ntinues to lose its momentum across the board. The dollar index, which measures the worth of the greenback against majors, is reporting a 0.30% drop.
Daily Support and Resistance
- S1 106.59
- S2 107.18
- S3 107.46
- Pivot Point 107.77
- R1 108.05
- R2 108.36
- R3 108.95
USD/JPY – Trading Tips
The USD/JPY is trading with a bearish bias, and it is pretty much likely to find support around the triple bottom area of 107.039. A bearish breakout of this level can extend selling until 105.300. While the resistance holds around 108.640. The MACD and 50 periods of EMA are suggesting bearish bias, while the fundamentals side is also in favor of selling. Since we don’t have any major fundamental coming out shortly, traders will focus on the technical side and levels. Hence, we should look for selling trades below 108 to target 107.030 today.
All the best for today!