Forex Market Analysis

Daily Market Update: Release of US Prelim GDP, and Big Day for the Canadian Dollar


News Commentary


Italian President Sergio Mattarella assigned a former-IMF economist as a temporary Prime Minister.

Now the eurozone’s third-largest economy, Italy will hold new elections in September 2018. Investors may consider whether these elections will strengthen or weaken Italian populist forces.

Besides, economists have concluded that the ECB will begin hiking rates in the middle of next year.

German retail sales & preliminary CPI will be released today with a forecast of 0.5% & 0.3% respectively, followed by Spanish flash CPI with an expectation of 1.7%.

Two big releases for the US are the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change with a forecast of 191K after a previous reading of 204K, and preliminary GDP of 2.3%.

The big announcement today goes for the Bank of Canada with their overnight rate to be stable at the last level of 1.25%, followed by the rate statement which may catch any notes about rate hikes.



Chart Analysis


On the daily chart, as we expected before, the price had made its way up to targets at the resistance zone 1.0815-1.0865, boosted by a BAT  harmonic pattern.

The price is going to have a little retracement at these levels to continue its bullish movement up to the 1.1045 level.




On the daily chart, the price reversed from the support zone of 107.6-108.4, then broke the descending channel up to reach the key resistance at 112.1.

The price had made a pullback from this level to retest the channel & the zone.

So, the price is expected to revisit these level before approaching the 38.2% Fibonacci at 112.1-112.6.




On the daily chart, the pair is still being traded above the ascending trend and the support of 0.6875, with oversold on RSI.

We can also notice that there’s a descending channel that the price has already broken, along with a BAT harmonic pattern which is already shaped. So, we can conclude that the last break beneath the upward trend line was a false break and the pair is about to restart its bullish momentum towards the resistance zone of 0.697-0.702.