Categories
Forex Course

8. Which Is The Right Currency Pair To Buy & Sell?

Introduction

By now, we know that trading Forex market involves trading of currencies pairs rather than just a single currency. The working mechanism of this is quite different from that of the stock market. In the previous lessons, we learned how the buying and selling of a  currency pair work. However, this is still insufficient to take a trade on these currencies. Though you have the knowledge of which pair is strong or weak, choosing the right currency pair plays a vital role. There are times where you make a loss even if your analysis of the currency was correct. In this lesson, we shall try keeping you away from incurring these events.

Strength of the currency pairs

As discussed in the previous lessons, in a currency pair, we have something called as a base currency and a quote currency. To brush things up, the left currency on currency pair is called the base currency, and the one on the right is called the quote/counter currency. To trade the forex market successfully, one must do their analysis on both the currencies of the currency pair. For example, if you wish to trade the EURUSD currency pair, having knowledge in either EUR or USD is insufficient. Instead, you must have insights on both the currencies. This will not only prove the rightness of your analysis but will also reduce your risk considerably. Now, let us understand this in detail.

The answer to ‘why’ you must consider both currencies in a currency pair in your analysis rather than just one currency lies in the previous lessons. Well, when you go long/short on a currency pair, you are actually buying one currency and simultaneously selling the other one. So, if you analyze only one currency, you will be blindly be hitting a buy or sell on the other currency. Hence, it becomes equally important to consider the other currency in your analysis as well. For example, if you buy AUD/USD thinking that AUD is strong, there is no certainty that the prices of this pair will rise, as USD has its role to play as well.

Choosing the apt pair to trade

The answer to choosing the right currency pair is self-explanatory. It is always recommended to choose a currency pair where one of them is strong, and the other is equally weak. For example, let’s say in the USD/CHF pair, USD is strong, and CHF is weak. Ideally, one would buy a currency that is strong and would sell a currency pair that is weak. Coming to the case of USD/CHF, if you buy this currency pair, you are buying the USD and even selling CHF at the same time. Hence, you are basically doubling your success probability or halving your failure probability. If we were to visualize this currency pair, the USD would be shooting to the north while the CHF would be dropping towards the south. And in the form of a currency pair (where the base currency is taken into consideration), the chart would visually look in one direction, which is upward.

Apart from strong vs. weak pairs, you can even trade strong/weak vs. neutral pairs as well. But, note that it is highly risky to trade a strong vs. strong or weak vs. weak as the overall direction of the market becomes hard to predict. We hope you understood this concept. Now, let’s take a quick quiz.

[wp_quiz id=”44815″]
Categories
Forex Course

4 – Understanding The Mechanism In Buying And Selling Of Currency Pairs

Introduction

The mechanism of the forex market is quite different when compared with other markets like stocks and commodities. In the stock market, we essentially consider a company’s stock to trade. But in the foreign exchange market, we cannot trade a single currency. Instead, we must trade them in pairs.

In the previous lessons, we understood the meaning of base and quote currencies and also the right way to read the symbols. In this lesson, let’s explain how exactly this buying and selling happens in the Forex market.

The working principle

Before getting into the topic, let us understand a few common terms to grip the concept much better.

Long – It is a basic term in trading, which refers to the ‘buying of security.

Short Selling – This term refers to the ‘borrowing’ of security from the broker and selling it at the current market price. You can assume this to be the right opposite of long. Note that Shorting security and selling security are two different terms.

For example, let’s say you went long on a security, and now you wish to close it. To close it, you will have to ‘sell’ it. Here, you are ‘selling’ and not ‘shorting’ the security.

Now, with this on our back, let us get into the working of buying and selling currency pairs.

Going Long on a Currency Pair

When you go long on a currency pair, you actually buy the base currency, and short sell the quote currency. For example, if you go long 100,000 units on EUR/USD, you are buying 100,000 Euros and short selling 100,000 US Dollars.

Short Selling a Currency Pair

Short selling in the forex market is quite different from that of the stock market. In the forex market, when you short sell a currency pair, you will be selling the base currency and buying the quote currency. Hence, shorting in forex is the same as placing a regular sell order.

However, the main motive remains that the prices must decline from the point you executed the short position to generate a profit. For example, if you short 10,000 units of USD/CAD, you are actually selling 10,000 US Dollars and buying the same number of Canadian Dollars. Hence, here, you’re not borrowing a certain amount of currency to go short.

What next?

With the concept of the long and short sell, let us understand how to make a profit from it.

To profit from a long trade, you need the currency pair prices to increase.

To profit from a short trade, you need the currency pair prices to decline.

This also implies that, in a long trade, an increase in the base currency prices will put you in profit, and in a short trade, a decrease in the base currency prices will give you profits.

Example

Consider the current market price of USD/CHF to be 0.9850. Let’s say you went long on this currency pair. The buy/sell mechanism here is simple – you bought the USD (the base currency) and simultaneously short sold the CHF (the quote currency). Hence, to make a profit from this, you need currency pair prices to increase, which in turn means that you need the value of the base currency (USD) to increase or the value of the CHF to decrease because you’ve bought the USD.

This is how the buying and selling of currency pairs work internally. However, since all of this is managed by the broker, all you need to know is if the prices should rise or fall according to the position you took.

In the next article, we will be discussing the sheer size and liquidity of the Forex market along with the perks involved. For now, check if you can get the below questions right.

[wp_quiz id=”42315″]