Forex Market Analysis

Forex and Indices Daily Update 25.06.18

Fundamental Overview

Understanding the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence Index (CCI).

Tomorrow, the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence Index will be released. This reflects the business conditions and likely developments for the months ahead. The report is issued monthly and is a barometer of the health of the U.S. economy from the perspective of the consumer.

The current CCI level reported in May is 128 pts, and the analysts’ consensus for June is a decrease to 127.6 points. The decreasing could be attributed to the protectionist policy which the Trump Administration is boosting. Despite this decline, consumer confidence keeps having record highs. The highest level reached in the year is 130 pts, the record high since December 2000.


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Technical Analysis



Since June 22nd, the EURUSD has made an impulsive move reaching the short-term target area between 1.17043 and 1.17617. Our vision is that the common currency could strike the 1.1853 level before it starts a brief retracement to the area between 1.1679 and 1.15892, from there, the price should make a new rally with a target placed at 1.19467. Invalidation level is at 1.1508.


GBPUSD bounced on June 21st aided by the Bank of England monetary policy decision. Now the price is consolidating the previous impulsive move. We should see a limited fall in three waves to the area between 1.3237 and 1.3165, from where we foresee fresh highs with the target at 1.3443. Invalidation level is at 1.31020.


The USDCHF pair is testing the long-term ascending trendline. Our forecast for USDCHF is that it could make a flag pattern reaching the 0.99277 level before we see the continuation of the previous move with a target placed on the area between 0.97225 and 0.96495. Invalidation level of this scenario is at 0.99909.


The EURJPY cross is moving in a corrective structure as an A-B-C Pattern, which could make a new lower low. RSI Oscillator is running supported by an ascending trendline refecting the corrective structure of the principal trend. We foresee a new bearish move to 124.94 and 126.62; this area converges with the ascending long-term trendline from where EURJPY could start a new rally. Invalidation level of the bearish cycle is 130.347.


The GBPJPY cross is building a consolidation pattern as a flag pattern, which could make fresh highs to the area between 149.34 and 150.70. Our vision for the cross is that the price could reach the bearish mid-term trendline before it collapses to the lower line of the ascending channel completing a bearish flag pattern of major degree. The next key support is 143.209, invalidation level of the main bearish cycle is at 152.775.

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 index started the week by falling for the sixth consecutive week. In this session the British index broke down the key support at 7,548, the low reached on June 18th. As we forecasted, FTSE continues their selloff approaching the Potential Reversal Zone in the 7,400 area, from where FTSE could build a new bullish connector. If the index breaks down, the Control Level is likely, that reaches from 7,182 level to 7,073 area. Invalidation level of the bearish scenario is 7,793.5.

DAX 30

DAX  30 is moving bearish in the same way that FTSE 100 is developing a Dead Cat Bounce Pattern. Today, the German index has fallen to the Potential Reversal Zone forecasted, from now we are cautious because the index could start to bounce. The price action, and RSI Oscillator and Awesome Oscillator do not show divergences or reversal signals. To summarise, the short-term bias is bearish. Invalidation level of the bearish cycle is at 13,170 pts.


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