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Daily Market Update: Upbeat Data From Australia, UK CPI, Powell Set To Be Hawkish Again

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 News Commentary


 

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell supported the Dollar by bullish comments, which affirmed expectations about the central bank’s possible interest rate moves this year.

In Congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday, Powell said he believed the United States was in steady growth for years, and carefully played down the risks to the U.S. economy of an escalating trade conflict.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s top economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, said that he believed Chinese President Xi Jinping has blocked any progress on a deal to end the duelling in U.S. and Chinese tariffs.

“China could end U.S. tariffs by providing a more satisfactory approach” and “taking steps that other countries are also calling for”, Kudlow said.

 

The U.K. was pulled down yesterday on weak inflation data, with the CPI reading 2.4%, less than the expectation of 2.6%, causing market expectations for a BoE August rate hike to ease slightly from 77% to 68%

 

Earlier, the Australian economy added 50.9K jobs in June, better than the estimated forecast of 16.7K
More importantly, the full-time jobs rose by 41.2 K following a 20.6K drop registered in May. Meanwhile, the jobless rate came in at a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.4% as expected.

 

 


 Chart Analysis


 

 

US INDEX

On the daily chart, the price has returned to the red resistance zone with shaping before the reversal double top.

The price has formed another reversal pattern to assure the bearish bias with the wedge.

Followed by a break beneath an ascending trend on RSI, the index is supposed to make its way back to the support zone 93.2-92.6



 

AUD/USD

On the daily chart, the pair bounced back from the resistance 0.7455 to retest the green support zone again.

Followed by divergence on RSI, our bullish view is still the same: Heading towards the combination of levels of descending trend, ascending channel and resistance zone at 0.7655-0.774.



 

NZD/USD

On the daily chart, the price retested the green support zone 0.682-0.6775, followed by divergence in RSI.

An AB=CD harmonic pattern has been shaped to reinforce the bounce.

The price is supposed to head back to the top of the descending channel with the resistance zone at 0.697-0.703.



 

USD/CAD

On the daily chart, the price reached the support of 1.3085 with the ascending trend line from the low of April.

On the other hand, the price has shaped a GARTLEY harmonic pattern with a reversal wedge, bouncing from the 78.6% Fibonacci level, followed by a divergence in RSI.

So, If the price breaks above the resistance 1.3225, it would head back to 1.34.

If it breaks beneath the wedge and the support of 1.3085, it would head back to 1.289.



AUD/JPY

On the daily chart, as we expected before, the price has reached the red resistance zone at 83.9-85.95.

It’s a crucial area that if the price bounces back from, it will continue its sideways movement to the support zone 81.2-80.5.

If the price breaks above it, it will head new levels to the next resistance zone 85.5-85.95.



 

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