Categories
Forex Risk Management

Best Trading Position Part 3 – Risk in Parallel Trades

If you are reading this article, you must be serious about trading. Did you know that curiosity and eagerness to learn are the two crucial components of being a successful trader in the long term? Since this is our part three discussion on the best trading position, we are continuing our journey of discovery, listing proven ways to achieve sustainable success. Now, of course, there can be many different approaches to trading, but here you can learn what actually works. If you happen to be seeing this title for the first time, make sure that you go back and read the story from the beginning, covering parts one and two as well, along with related exercises

Last time we talked about effective ways to protect your trades, deepening the story about the risk and introducing the topic of stop losses. What we did not talk about in the previous article is that traders often wonder about exiting trades, fearing that they might miss that one opportunity to preserve their assets. However, you will find that with the right system in place, you should always be notified before a particular trend or favorable period ends, so the price should not even hit your stop loss.

If the price ends up violently moving in a different direction from what you would want to, you still know that you would never lose more than 2% of your account if you set everything up the way we discussed earlier in this series. That is what the ATR indicator we previously talked about is about, helping you manage and adjust to volatile markets regardless of the circumstances. Now, besides general risk and exiting trades, there is another key question to ponder about if you really want to protect your assets.

How many individual trades can I have open at 2%?

When traders read about the 2% instruction, they often fall for the trap of overleveraging, which tends to lead to really bad consequences. To understand where most traders fail, imagine that you entered three trades involving the following currencies: the EUR/AUD long, AUD/USD short, and AUD/CAD short. You assume that by opening three trades at 2% each, you are doing the right thing. Unfortunately, your thinking would be faulty here and you would add more risk instead of controlling it properly. Since there are three trades involving one currency (AUD), you now have a 6% risk in one asset. Therefore, please note down the following rule in your notebook: You can have as many trades running at the same time as you please, but you must never have more than one trade at 2% risk going long or short with the same currency.

What should I do if I am getting several signals for one currency?

There are a few solutions that you can always use in trading if you find yourself in a similar situation. For example, you can choose only one trade to enter. You can either make this choice freely or, if you need reassurance, compare the other two currencies in the pair and measure them against other currencies. So, if you are weighing between the AUD/USD and the AUD/CAD, compare the USD basket and the CAD basket to see which seems to be a better option

Aside from this approach, you can also opt for entering both trades but at 1% risk each. This is not only a wise way to control the risk when you have multiple trades open at the same time but also a form of a hedge, as you have one currency against two different ones.

What should I do when I almost get another signal involving the same currency?

First of all, you do not have to necessarily ignore all signals of this type. If you happen to get one signal for a particular pair, followed by something that may turn out to be a signal soon, you can always choose to play smart – enter one trade at 1% and wait to see what will happen with the other pair the following day. With such “almost signals,” it is always wise to give yourself space to gather more facts before you make any decisions.

Should I always enter trades at 1% risk only?

No, by no means should you enter all trades at reduced risk. Overleveraging is as detrimental to your account and development as is being timid. This mindset will not get you far, so make sure that you avoid seeing this as a form of protection because it is will hinder your growth, both in terms of your trading skills and your finances.

Regardless of your market of choice, you must always put your risk under control no matter how many trades you decide to enter. Greed can be a funny thing, especially when we don’t know what situations trigger our hunger for more. To have control over your trades, you must consciously choose to follow a specific rule and do so in a disciplined manner. And, on this note, we are going to end today’s lesson, leaving you with the task of trying out these methods with your demo account as soon as possible.

As we promised, we are offering you the right solution to the problem given in the last article of this series:

RISK = TOTAL ACCOUNT x 2% = 50,263 USD x 2% (0,02) = 1,005.25 ≈ 1,005

ATR = 86

STOP LOSS = ATR x 1.5 = 86 x 1.5 = 129

PIP VALUE = RISK ÷ STOP LOSS = 7.79 ≈ 7.8

Upon the completion of this task, we know that one pip should equal the previously calculated amount, so we can estimate that the unit value is going to be 78,000 (usually 0.78 lots) for the EUR/USD currency pair. 

P.S. Practice note-taking whenever you test a new method or approach in trading and watch for Part IV to follow.

Good luck!

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

Simple Yet Effective Position Trading Strategy

If we look at it a little bit, in recent years, we have seen great trends that were noticed, first, in the JPY in the short term and later, in the recent long-term trend of the USD. Usually, when the market is in these conditions, many Forex traders begin to wonder why they are not getting the kind of trades where the winners last weeks or even months, gathering thousands of pips of profits in the process. This type of long-term trading is known as position trading or position trading.

Traders accustomed to short-term trading tend to find this style of trading as a major challenge they could hardly meet. It’s a shame that this happens because reality is usually the easiest and most profitable type of trading that retail Forex traders can find. Next in this article, I will describe a trading strategy with fairly simple and easy-to-follow rules, and that uses only a few indicators to try to catch and maintain the longer and stronger forex market trends.

Step 1. Choose the currencies to be traded.

To do this, you need to find out which currencies have been winning in recent months and which have been falling. A good time frame to use for this measurement is about 3 months and if it shows the same direction as the longer-term trend, as for example in the framework of 6 months, that would be a very good sign. A simple way to do this is to set a 12-period RSI and scan weekly charts of the 28 most important currency pairs each weekend. By noticing which currencies are above or below 50 in front of all or almost all of your currency pairs and crosses, you can have an approximation of which pairs should be traded during the following week. The idea, basically, is “buy what’s going up and sell what’s going down”. It’s against intuition, but it works in most cases.

Step 2. Decide that yes and no.

You should now have a maximum of 1-4 currency pairs to trade. You do not need to trade excess pairs.

Step 3. Configure the graphics with the time frames D1, H4, H1, M30, M15, M5, and M1. Set an RSI of 10 periods, the EMA of 5 periods, and the SMA of 10 periods.

You are looking to place operations in the direction of the trend when these indicators align in the same direction as the trend in ALL TIME FRAMES during active market hours. That means having the RSI above the level of 50 for long operations or below that level for short operations. As for moving socks, for most pairs, this would be 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., London time. If both coins are from North America, I could extend this to 5 pm, New York time. If both currencies are from Asia, you can also look for operations during the Tokyo session.

Step 4. Decide what percentage of your account you will risk in each transaction.

Usually, the best thing is, risk less than 1% for each operation. Calculate the amount of money you are going to risk and divide it by the Average True Range (ATR) of the last twenty days of the pair you are going to negotiate. This is the amount you should risk per pip. Keep it that way.

Step 5. Enter the transaction according to point 3) and place a stop loss in the ATR of 20 Days from your ticket price.

Now you should be patient, watch, and wait.

Step 6. If the trade moves quickly against you by about 40 pips and shows no signs of turning around, run the output manually.

If this does not happen, wait a couple of hours and check again at the end of the trading day. If the trade is not showing a positive candle pattern in the desired direction, then exit the trade manually.

Step 7. If the trade is in your favor at the end of the day, then watch and wait for you to go back to your point of entry.

If you don’t bounce back within a few hours of reaching your entry point, quit trading manually.

Step 8. This should continue until your operation reaches the profit level twice that of your stop loss.

At that point, move the stop to break even (also known as deadlock, balance, or break-even).

Step 9. As the trade moves more in your favor, move the stop up under the support or resistance, as appropriate for the direction of your operation.

It will eventually be stopped, but in a good trend, the operation should provide thousands or at least hundreds of pips.

You can be a Positions Trader if:

-You are an independent thinker.

-You are able to ignore popular opinion and make your own educated conclusions as to where the market is headed.

-You have a great understanding of the fundamentals and have good foresight on how they affect your currency pair in the long run.

-You have thick skin and can resist any recoil you face.

-You have the capital to be able to support several hundred pips if the market turns against you.

-You don’t mind waiting for your big reward. Long-term Forex trading can give you from several hundred to several thousand pips. If you are excited to move to 50 pips and already want to leave the trade, consider moving to a short-term trade style.

-You’re extremely patient and calm.

You may NOT be a Position Trader if:

-You will easily be influenced by popular opinions about the markets.

-You don’t have enough knowledge of how they can affect the fundamentals markets in the long run.

-Don’t wait. Even if you are somewhat patient, this may still not be the negotiating style for you. Don’t wait You have to be the ultimate zen master when it comes to this kind of patience!

-You don’t have enough seed money.

-You do not like it when the market goes against you.

-You like to see your results quickly. It may not bother you to wait a few days, but months or even years is too long for you to wait.

Obviously, you should customize this strategy a little according to your preferences. However, whatever you do and whatever you decide, assume you will have a large share of losing operations and spend long periods of time where there will be no operations – which is boring – or where each operation is a loser or ends in a stalemate. There will be moments of frustration and difficult periods. However, you will earn money in the long run, if you follow this type of trading strategy of the forex markets, as you will follow the eternal principles of solid and successful trading.

Finally, to close with a twist, if you really want to develop a trading strategy to make sure your trades are winning, when trading Forex, don’t forget the following:

– Cut soon your operations with losses

– Let your operations run with profit

– Never risk too much in a single operation.

– Set the size of the positions according to the volatility of the market where you are trading.

– Work with the trend.

– Do not worry about taking the first segment of a trend or its duration. What is sufficiently safe and profitable is the middle part.

Categories
Forex Market

What is the Best Trading Position? Part II – Trade Protection

Last time we started talking about risk management, giving you the exact number of what your risk in trading should be. In case you are eager to learn how to secure the best trading position, go back and read the first article of this series and do the test at the end. If you have already done that, prepare your pen and paper once again because we are covering key concepts that you will need to get the best possible results trading in the forex market.

Why is Stop Loss Important?

Owing to the stop loss, i.e. a specified number of pips away from the point of entry, you will always know that your trades are protected. If there is an unfavorable move and you are not there to oversee your trades or if you are simply tired of being on the watch all the time, stop loss is surely your best friend. Your stop loss will also help you determine the value of each pip and control your risk. Therefore, make sure to set up your stop loss before you enter any new trade because it is one of the most important tools you will learn to use in trading.

How Can I Set up My Stop Loss?

Here is one way to do it. In order to make proper use of stop losses, you will need to meet two conditions: use the ATR (Average True Range) indicator and use the daily chart. Pull up the indicator in the chart for the pair you wish to trade and do not change the default value (14). You will find the ATR on the left side of the indicator window under the white line in the middle. If you see a value of 0.0071, you will know that the ATR for that specific currency pair equals 71 pips. To set up your stop loss, you need to multiply this number by 1.5. Just make sure you remember that any other time frame will not give you correct numbers, so this form of protection would not work in that case.

How do I Calculate My Pip Value?

Use this simple equation to calculate the value of a pip: RISK ÷ STOP LOSS = Pip Value. Now is the time to remember the previous lesson and calculate your risk for a 50,000 USD account and a value of 0.0071 on the left side of your chart. In case you forgot, we will do it together now:

RISK = TOTAL ACCOUNT x 2% = 50,000 USD x 2% (0,02) = 1,000

ATR = 71

STOP LOSS = ATR x 1.5 = 71 x 1.5 = 106.5 ≈ 106

PIP VALUE = RISK ÷ STOP LOSS = 9.43

This is how you determine your risk, set up your stop losses, and protect your trades. Whatever you do, make sure not to deviate from this plan, especially if you are a beginner trader. While this may seem like a lot of trouble to go through, understand that you will know that you have succeeded the moment you see your losses no longer affect your account. Try to use the ATR and set up stop losses for each trade in your demo account for at least six months before you decide to start trading real money.

Part 2 Task

As always, we will give you a task to do on your own and provide you with the results in the next article of this series:

Calculate the pip value for your 50,263 USD account based on the information you can find in the chart for the EUR/USD currency pair.

The correct answers for the last task are provided below. Please, besides the answer key, read the explanations under each answer as well.

  • a, b & c

All three answers are correct because we need risk management regardless of our individual stage of development as traders. 

  • a & c

Do not get misled by a few wins here and there because successful professional trading entails consecutive and sustainable winning.

  • a & b

The first task and primary responsibility of every trader is to learn why a certain trade did not go as planned. The worst mistake one can do is just to keep trading regardless of poor results. This is the approach that leads to losses and blown accounts.

  • a, b & c

All of the options are correct since forex trading is not only about securing wins but making sure that losses are controlled. We can do that after learning what went wrong in the past and how we can fix those issues.

  • b & c

Risk is never about one number alone. Risk entails a series of tasks and strategies that we are still learning about in these articles. Securing the best position will mainly depend on how you manage your risk too, so stay tuned until next time when we will be sharing another set of invaluable tips and tools.

Watch for Part III to be posted tomorrow!