News Commentary
US President Trump has restated his call for OPEC to bring down the price of gasoline. He recently asked Saudi Arabia to increase production after he imposed Iran with sanctions reducing Iran’s production by up to 1.1M barrels per day. An Iranian Republican Guard Commander has said that Iran would block the Strait of Hormuz if the US stops Iranian oil sales.
Investors are still cautious ahead of Friday’s deadline for the U.S. to impose a 25% tariff on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports, which Beijing has pledged to match with a levy on U.S. products.
The Fed will release minutes of its June meeting today, with investors looking for clues on whether it is still on track to raise interest rates twice more this year
Most economists expect that the FED will persist in raising the rates at its own pace.
“Every FED official but one projects the central bank will get rates above 3% by 2020”, said Michael Hanson, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities.
Seth Carpenter, chief U.S. economist at UBS, agreed. He said it would take “a major surprise” to keep the FED from pushing interest rates up at a steady pace.
On other hand, some ECB members seemed to be troubled about the slow pace of rates hikes, saying that a Sept/Oct 2019 hike is too late. In response, the probability of a September rate hike has risen from 69% to 80%.
German industrial orders bounced back in May with higher than expected results after four consecutive monthly drops, as demand from domestic customers and the rest of the Eurozone picked up.
Chart Analysis
USD INDEX
As we expected on the daily chart, the price had reached the key resistance at 95.5 and bounced back from it, powered by divergence on RSI.
The price also had shaped a reversal double top pattern.
So, the index is supposed to get back down to the support zone of 93.2-92.6 again, then start its journey to the C wave.
USD/JPY
On the daily chart, the pair retested the key resistance of 111.1 again and the descending trend from the high of 2017 to shape a double top reversal pattern.
So, the price is expected to assure the next bearish move that leads it to the support zone of 108.65-108.15.
AUD/USD
On the daily chart, the price has reached the support zone of 0.7325-0.7365.
The pair is supposed to find some breath powered by divergence on RSI to reach the key resistance of 0.7515, where the descending trend from the high of February is located.
As we expected before, the price has reached the support zone 81.2-80.5 as the price is moving sideways.
So, the price is expected to retest the head of the pattern to again reach the levels of 84-84.4.
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