Forex Market Analysis

Good News Expected for RBNZ Decision – Forex and Indices – Daily Update – 27.06.18

Fundamental Overview

Good News Expected for RBNZ Interest Rate Decision.

During the overnight session, Stats NZ released the Trade Balance data from New Zealand, which shows an improvement in the commercial situation in June. Exports of meat grew by 17% reaching $817M. While the meat exported increased by 12 per cent reported Stats NZ, the destination of the main export was China, which rose by 27 per cent reaching $1.2B in June. The European Union exports also increased rising by 17 per cent ($664M).

On the other hand, vehicles, parts, and accessories led imports by 25 per cent, climbing to $924M. Whereas, Oil imports were reduced by 30 per cent, falling to $455M in May.

Source: Forex.Academy Collection.


Technical Analysis


EURUSD is making the retracement of the first impulsive move testing the blue box from where the euro could start the continuation of the previous movement. RSI is testing support above the 40 level, which makes us suspect that the EURUSD pair could be testing support. Our mid-term vision is that the common currency could beat 1.1853, even reaching the target placed at 1.19467. Invalidation level is at 1.1508.


The GBPUSD pair is still consolidating the previous impulsive move in the descending long-term trendline. The price is moving in the Potential Reversal Zone (Blue Box) from where we expect the bullish reaction as a continuation of the previous movement. We foresee fresh highs with the target at 1.3443. Invalidation level is at 1.31020.


USDCHF is moving slightly bullish consolidating in the long-term ascending trendline. Our main vision for USDCHF is the formation of a flag pattern reaching the 0.99277 level before continuing with the previous bearish move with a target placed on the area between 0.97225 and 0.96495. Invalidation level of this scenario is at 0.99909.


EURNZD continued developing a bullish impulsive move. As we forecasted in a previous Daily Update (June 20th, 2018), the cross is moving near to the target area at 1.7064. Still, we foresee a more upside to the 1.7148 level. Invalidation level is 1.6572.


GBPNZD still is moving in an ascending channel to the Potential Reversal Zone proposed in our Daily Update for June 20th. The price could reach the target between 1.944 and 1.958 area, from where the cross should complete a bullish cycle. Invalidation level is 1.8909.

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 index bounced from the sell-off performed on the Monday 25th trading session; despite this bounce, we expect more dips. FTSE should reach at least the 7,468.3 level before it completes the short-term bearish cycle. From this zone, we could build a new bullish connector. If the index breaks down, the Control Level is likely to reach from the 7,182 level to 7,073 area. Watch out for the RSI which is moving sideways between the 40 and 60 level; this coincides with the consolidation pattern that still is running. Invalidation level of the bearish scenario is 7,793.5.

DAX 30

DAX 30 is testing support on the PRZ forecasted at 12,238 pts. The RSI level at 26 makes us foresee that the German index is developing a wave three. In consequence, more downsides are pending; likely DAX 30 plunge below 12,100 pts. Invalidation level of the bearish cycle is at 13,170 pts.

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