Forex Market Analysis

No change on interest rates in the ECB Meeting


Draghi stated that Eurozone area growth is “solid and broad-based”, then he continue saying that “the ECB didn’t discuss plans for its June meeting”. The ECB kept rates unchanged at its meeting earlier, while inflation has risen sustainably close to its target of 2%.

“The RBA is the furthest away from hiking rates amongst any industrialized countries,” said Michael Kushma, chief investment officer for global fixed income at Morgan Stanley in an interview in Singapore. “That could allow Australian bonds to continue to do well versus U.S. bonds and other Group-of-10 government bonds.’’

Rising U.S. yields and the expectations of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year have enhanced the dollar in recent sessions. Expectations of higher interest rates are making the dollar more attractive to investors.

The bank of Japan’s two-day meeting concludes tomorrow.  For all practical purposes, there is no chance of a change in policy. At last week’s G20 meeting Kuroda made it clear that an aggressive attitude is needed for some time. He was quoted in the papers saying, “There is still a long way to achieve the 2% inflation target, but risks are skewed to the downside.”



Swiss national bank was lately protecting CHF price at 1.2 Euro. Every time the price had reached this level it directly pulled the trigger. Until January 2015 when the SNB released the preservation of this level, which made the price suffered a downward movement of more than 2000 pips!. So, this key level became a strong resistance after being a secure support.

As we see on the daily chart, the price rebounded from this level. Along with reversing from the upper edge of the upward channel. Also, the price couldn’t effectively break the upward trend line connecting the lows of the August-17 to January-18 movement. With its RSI in overbought levels, the price is expected to go down to 1.1815-1.169



On the daily chart, the price rebounded from the lower trend line from the high of 2007. It’s the same level of the broken uptrend from the low of July 2017. With a combination of key resistance level at 0.7695, 61.8% Fibonacci, & B level of the harmonic pattern, besides forming a new harmonic pattern (BAT). Finally, the chart shows an overbought condition in the RSI, so the price is expected to move bearish to retest 0.75




On the daily chart, the price has reversed from the key resistance 1.614. This creates on the pair two reversal patterns: double top & wedge. It presented also pin bar & divergence in RSI, the price is expected to go down to the support zone starting with 1.585


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