Introduction
Trend trading is a great way to earn money from the forex market. Any retail trading strategy based on a trend continuation pattern works well when it moves within a trend. Therefore, in this trading strategy, we will take trades from minor corrections using the parabolic SAR towards the trend.
Furthermore, we will use a 100-period exponential moving average to determine the trend. If the price is trading above the 100 exponential moving average, we will consider the trend as an uptrend. If the price is trading below the 100-period exponential moving average, it will consider it a downtrend. We will follow a simple logic by considering buying trades when the market moves up and considering sell trades when the market is moving to drown.
However, there are no specific rules about the period of your moving average. Some traders are comfortable with 100 EMA, while some traders are compatible with 20 EMA or SMA. Therefore, if you’re trading in a lower timeframe, you can use any moving average from 20 to 100 periods. However, we will focus on 100 EMA as it provides good profitability based on swing trading ideas.
Why Should We Use Parabolic SAR?
Parabolic SAR is a forex trading indicator that stands for “stand and reverses.” This trading indicator was devised by J Welles, represented by some dots below and above the candlestick. In an uptrend, dots remain below the price and indicates a bullish pressure once the price is rejected from these dots. Similarly, in a downtrend, the dots form above the price, and the price starts to move once it gets rejected from the parabolic SAR.
In the image below, we can see a clear chart of the candlestick pattern.
Let’s plot the parabolic SAR in the price chart and see how it looks like.
It is visible that in an uptrend, Parabolic SAR is below the price, and in a downtrend, the parabolic SAR is above the price. This is why the parabolic SAR is considered as a stop and reverse indicator.
Furthermore, the parabolic SAR has a built-in stop-loss function. Once the price moves up or down with a new candle, the parabolic SAR changes with the price. Therefore, you can move your stop loss once the price creates a new higher or lower low. Furthermore, you can edit the primary parameter of Parabolic SAR from the indicator’s setting, but in this trading strategy, we will use the default format.
Moving Average with Parabolic SAR
If we use a 100-period exponential moving average, we can catch the major trend direction from the minor correction. The forex market Moves Like a zigzag. Therefore, there is a minor correction in a major bullish trend and minor bullish correction in a major downtrend. If we know the major trend, we can quickly enter the trade from a correction to get the maximum reward from the minimum risk.
In the forex market, parabolic SAR usually provides trading signals earlier than expected, which might create a negative impact on your trading result. Overall, any trend following indicator does not provide a good result when the price moves within a range. In most of the cases, markets follow the trend of about 35% of the time. Therefore, it is essential to filter out the conditions where the market is moving within a range.
We can eliminate the unexpected market behavior by using the 100 moving average as it will provide a more significant trend that will prevent over-trading. In the image below, we can see how the parabolic SAR provides false trading signals when the market moves within a range.
In the ranging market, it would be difficult to make a profit using this trading strategy. Therefore, it is better to use the 100 moving average to get the overall direction of the trend.
Moving Average With Parabolic SAR Trading Rules
Every trading strategy has its unique rules. In the moving average with the Parabolic SAR trading strategy, our main aim is to follow the trend towards the direction of 100 EMA.
Overall, we will follow simple rules as Complex trading rules make it challenging to implement it on the chart. You can make good profits with a simple trading strategy if you can utilize it well with appropriate trade management and money management rules.
Timeframe
The moving average with the Parabolic SAR trading strategy works well in all timeframes from 5 minutes to weekly charts. The longer timeframe will provide better trading results. However, it is better to stick to the 1 hour to daily chart as it can cover fresh moves driven by banks and financial institutes.
Currency Pair
There is no obligation to use a currency pair. However, it is better to use a currency pair that does not remain within a range for a long time like EURCHF. Therefore, all major and minor pairs are good to go with this trading strategy.
Buy Entry (Inverse for Sell Entry)
- Identify the price above the 100 periods moving average. If the price is choppy at the 100 EMA, Ignore the price chart, and move to another market.
- Identify the parabolic SAR to point dots below the candlestick, which will be a buy signal (above the candlestick is a sell signal).
- Later on, place a buy stop order above the candlestick high.
- Put your stop loss below the printed dot with some buffer.
Example of Parabolic SAR Strategy
At the image below and see how parabolic SAR provided a buy trade setup.
- Notice that the price is moving in a range at the 100 EMA area with a violation. The blue horizontal line represents the support and resistance level, where the price is consolidating. In this consolidation, we will not take any trade.
- If you look at the price structure, you can see the price is moving within a range from their resistance to support. On the price move above the 100 exponential moving average, you should put a pending order above the range, projecting that it will break out from the resistance level and create an impulsive bullish pressure.
Stop Loss and Take Profit Set
When you put the pending order above the resistance level, you should put a stop loss below red dots that have appeared below the candlestick. While setting the stop-loss, make sure to use some buffer of 10 to 15 pips.
Later on, hold the price until it points red dots above the price. The red dot above the price will indicate that sellers are entering the market, and there is a possibility to create a new lower low. Furthermore, while sitting the stop loss and take profit, you should follow the basic rules of price action, including the breakout and pullback.
Summary
Let’s summarize the moving average with the Parabolic SAR trading strategy:
- You should look for a fresh trending movement above or below 100 exponential moving average.
- Parabolic dots below the price will provide buy-entry, and parabolic dots above the price will indicate sell-entry.
- You should avoid ranging markets where the price might violate parabolic dots.
Moreover, trade management and good trading psychology are mandatory for every trading strategy. You cannot make a decent profit until you know how to minimize the risk to get the maximum benefit from trade.
