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Forex Market Analysis

Gold’s Bullish Breakout Setup Activated – Get Ready to Buy! 

On Thursday, the precious metal gold prices trade bullish as investors await clarity on Brexit following the European Union delayed a verdict on allowing Britain an extension. Considering the safe-haven demand in gold, the U.S. dollar has dropped from the 99.5 level to 97.2 continuously for the last two weeks.

It’s been months now, the financial markets are volatile and trading the risk-off sentiment in the wake of geopolitical risks such as the U.S.-China trade war, Brexit, Hong Kong rallies and stresses in the Middle East.

As you know, traders divert their investments from the U.S. dollar, stock markets, and other financial instruments to the safe-haven asset gold during the time of uncertainty. That’s precisely what happening right now. Traders seem to move investments into the gold.

Moreover, the weaker dollar is also keeping the precious metal gold supported due to its negative correlation with gold. Let’s take a look at the technical side of the market.


XAU/USD – Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1488         1496.18

1484.02    1500.37

1475.85    1508.55

Key Trading Level: 1492.2

On the technical side, gold has violated the ascending triangle pattern, which was keeping gold in check below 1,496. Since this level is violated, we may see gold prices going towards 1,504 and 1,507 area. Therefore, consider keeping buying above 1,497. All the best! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Safe-haven Gold Trades Higher – Brexit Uncertainty Dominates!

The safe-haven metal prices fond on the bullish track due to fresh Brexit headlines. Prime Minister Boris Johnsons Brexit bill gained the parliamentary support, but the government timeline of just three-days discussion on the bill was rejected.

The Chances of Britain departing the European Union before the deadline date of 31 October has dropped sharply, mainly due to parliamentary failure.

On the other hand, the headline came from the Prime Minster Boris Johnson office said that if the European Union agree to a delay until January, then the only way to shift from Britain’s Brexit crisis is a new election.


At the US-China trade front, Chinse Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng said during this week that the China and United States reached on some developments in trade talks, as well as he said that as long as both nations respected between ourselves, all problems can resolve.

Trouble in Hong Kong also gained some attention, after the financial Times reported overnight that China is considering replacing Hong Kong’s chief executive, Carrie Lam, by March.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1474.16

S2 1480.41

S1 1484.27

Pivot Point 1486.66

R1 1490.52

R2 1492.91

R3 1499.16

Consider trading bearish below 1,497 area with a stop loss above the 1,500 level. Conversely, selling trades can be taken below 1,496 to target 1,486. All the best! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 18 – Major Trade Setups – Risk Appetite Rises Amid Brexit Deal! 

On Friday, the U.S. dollar trades bearish after the U.S. dollar slid to a nearly eight-week low in the prior session, keeping gold prices underpinned. 

European Union leaders collectively supported a new Brexit agreement with Britain on Thursday. The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is facing a battle to ensure the U.K. parliament’s support for the deal if he is to get Britain outside of Europe on October 31.

The risk sentiment improved yesterday due to the announcement of the United Kingdom and the European Union that they looked the Brexit deal. Still, the Brexit deal concerns continued to increase because the markets are worrying about the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s probabilities of getting the approval for the Brexit deal by the U.K. parliament.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 


XAU/USD– Daily Analysis

The safe-haven-metal prices dropped despite the weak China GDP data, and the drop came at the prices due to the markets were digesting headlines regarding Brexit and the US-China trade war.

U.S. Gold Futures for December delivery dropped 0.2% to $1,494.95 per ounce by 1:05 AM ET (05:05 GMT).

The risk sentiment improved yesterday due to the announcement of the United Kingdom and the European Union that they looked the Brexit deal. Still, the Brexit deal concerns continued to increase because the markets are worrying about the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s probabilities of getting the approval for the Brexit deal by the U.K. parliament.

Moreover, China’s 3rd-quarter GDP rose slower than expected. Chinese stocks dropped after the release of the data, but the safe-haven gold didn’t get any benefit from this.

Continuing trade tussle with the U.S. will keep under the eyes. Therefore, China said on Thursday that it believed to be in the last phase of the trade agreement with the United States. At the same time, China gave a warning that the United States has to cancel new tariffs for a full trade deal.

China’s Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng also said that we expect that both nations can continue to work together to more progress in discussions. As soon as possible, we will reach on a phased deal as well and make new progress with the help of canceling tariffs.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1462.89

S2 1476.9

S1 1484.38

Pivot Point 1490.91

R1 1498.39

R2 1504.92

R3 1518.93

XAU/USD– Trading Tips

Gold prices continue to trade in the same range of 1,496 – 1,488 as investors focus mostly stay on the Brexit deal and Sterling pairs. Technically, the precious metal gold has formed an ascending triangle on the 4-hour timeframe, which is extending substantial resistance at 1,495. Thus, consider staying bearish below 1,496 level to target 1,488 and 1,484. 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair found below the 100-day Moving Average of 1.1137, and the pair hit the high of 1.1140 on Thursday due to the headline that the United Kingdom and European Union officials teams (E.U.) have reached a Brexit departure deal.

The upward rally suddenly stopped near the 100-day Moving Average in the overnight session, possibly due to the concerns that the United Kingdom Parliament may reject the deal.

Looking forward, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will face a strongly divided parliament on Saturday, because all the opposition will try to delay the agreement in parliament and another election. Moreover, Boris Johnson Brexit deal already rejected once by the Northern Irish ally, the Democratic Unioost Party.

According to the entire situation, we can say that the chances of the United Kingdom parliament approving the Brexit deal by Boris Johnson are too low. The E.U. currency may remain below the 100-day Moving Average due to uncertainty surrounding the Brexit deal.

On the other hand, the equities could remain under pressure in the wake of sluggish China data; as of data, the final data released in the Asin session which was showed Chinas economy improved 6.0% from a year ago in the 3rd quarter, the weakest data sine 27.5 years.

The E.U. and Pound, both of the currencies, will take a buying trend if the Domcarative Unionist Party gives a softening statement about the Brexit deal on Saturday. In such a case, the EUR/USD currency pair could close above the 100-day Moving Average for the 1st time since July 18.


Daily Support and Resistance  

S3 1.0961

S2 1.1036

S1 1.1082

Pivot Point 1.1111

R1 1.1157

R2 1.1186

R3 1.1261

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has come out of the sideways range of 1.1020 – 1.1070. The pair is now holding above 1.1070 level, which is currently working as a support.

The bullish engulfing candle above 1.1100 level is suggesting the chances of further buying in the major currency pair. The RSI and MACD are indicating a buying trend, but the pair may show some correction until 1100 before showing a further bullish trend.

Consider staying bullish above 1.1100 level today to target 1.1160 on the upper side.


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the bearish track, representing a 0.30% declines on the day, mainly due to the fears that Prime Minister Boris Johnson could fail to approve the new Brexit deal in the United Kingdom parliament on coming Saturday.

As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair currently trading around the 1.2850, having hit a high of 1.2990 on Thursday. By the way, it was the highest level since May 13.

Moreover, the GBP currency took a strong buying trend during the European trading hours due to the report that the United Kingdom and the European Union have reached a Brexit departure deal.

The GBP/USD rose to 5-months highs, but it was short-timed because the optimism decreased on the realization that the United Kingdom parliament could deny the deal.

In an amazing Saturday meeting, the first since 1982, the parliament will vote on approving the new Brexit deal.

Looking forward, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will face a strongly divided parliament on Saturday, because all the opposition will try to delay the agreement in parliament and another election. Moreover, Boris Johnson Brexit deal already rejected once by the Northern Irish ally, the Democratic Unioost Party.


Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1.2396

S2 1.2636

S1 1.2764

Pivot Point 1.2877

R1 1.3004

R2 1.3117

R3 1.3357

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is trading within a bullish channel, which is extending support around 1.2850 level. The GBP/USD has from inside up bar pattern on the 4-hour chart, which is suggesting a bullish trend in the Cable.

The immediate support prevails at 1.2800, and resistance is likely to stay at 1.2900 today. Consider staying bullish above 1.2800, where the violation of 1.2870 can also lead the GBP/USD towards 1.2910. 

All the best!  

 

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Forex Market Analysis

Gold’s Safe Haven Demand Fades – Partial Trade War Plays! 

On Monday, the safe-haven metal prices rose but remain below the level of $1500 as the United States and China completed one round of trade meetings, and the United States planned to delay tariff on Chinese goods this week. Gold contract slipped 0.2% to trade at $1,491.35.

The U.S. President Donald Trump sketched the first round of a deal to settle the protracted Sino-U.S. trade war and halted a vulnerable tariff hike, the most significant step by the two nations in 15 months.

In return for the U.S. decision to delay tariff, China agreed to buy $40 billion and $50 billion in U.S. agricultural goods. More steps will be reached in the second phase, the president said.

The safe-haven metal prices swiftly dropped after the report came that the investors adopted the risky assets and dropped the safe-havens.

Technically, the Fibonacci retracement levels are playing a significant role. As you can see on the 2-hour chart above, the XAU/USD is trading right below the 38.2% retracement. This level used to work as resistance last week, but now, the same level is working as a resistance.

The closing of a 2-hour candle below 1,496 is suggesting bearish bias among traders. On the lower side, gold may find support at 1,486 and 1,480 level today.

Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1430.45

S2 1459.63

S1 1474.37

Pivot Point 1488.82

R1 1503.56

R2 1518

R3 1547.19

Consider staying bearish below 1,494 areas to target 1,487 and 1,482 today. On the flip side, buying can be seen in over 1,496 areas.

All the best!

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Forex Market Analysis

Gold Slips to 61.8% Retracement – Safe Have Demand Fades! 

On Friday, gold prices reversed from a one-week high after a rumor hinted that China needs to reach an agreement with the U.S. to avoid further acceleration of an open-ended trade. The safe-haven-metal prices slipped due to positive headlines cames regarding the US-China trade war and Brexit.

The stock market traded bullish due to the positive trade news that the United States and China could reach on the positive outcome this week. As a result, the safe-haven gold prices came under pressure. The United States and China may announce a limited trade agreement during this week, avoiding a new increase in trade tension.

The White House stated that the trade talks going unexpectedly well. However, the future positive headlines regarding trade increased the chances of a currency deal this week.

The market is now trading with Risk-off sentiment, shifting all the investment from gold to stock market. Technically, the precious metal gold has dropped from 1499 area to 1479 points amid faded safely have demand.

Earlier gold faced triple top resistance at 1,513 area, which pushed gold prices lower towards 1,479 that marks 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1459.04

S2 1480.2

S1 1492.88

Pivot Point 1501.36

R1 1514.04

R2 1522.52

R3 1543.68

What’s Next?

Gold prices can stay bullish above 1,479 area, and closing of 4-hour candles bove this level could drive buying in gold. 

The RSI and MACD have already entered the oversold zone, suggesting bulls are looming around the corner. 

Gold may find an immediate resistance at 1,487, along with support around 1,479. Violation of 1,479 can lead to gold prices to 1,470 later in the U.S. session. 

All the best! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Gold’s Ascending Triangle Set to Break Lower – Eyes On 1,492!

 On Thursday, the precious metal gold prices climbed one-week highs, staying mostly over above $1,500 during the European session. But the scenario seems to change now as the U.S. investors seem to do profit takings in the overbought gold. 

The market sentiment is being driven by two things lately: 

There’s a potential rate cut in the next policy decision by the Federal Reserve. 

The United States and China trade war is damaging the United States economy as well.

The Federal Reserve has already delivered two rates back to back rate cuts so far this year, in the wake of protecting the United States economy record decade-long growth.

Following an FOMC meeting minutes and the Fed Chair speech, the market is focusing on the Jerome Powell announcement that the market participants are possibly expecting another rate cut, and this may not be on the cards this year. So basically, it’s a hawkish statement that drives the bearish trend in the gold prices. 

On the other hand, the traders want more transparency and certainty in the matter of the United States and China trade war. The market is still careful due to conflicting hints from both sides, as trades discussions continued this week.

Gold – Technical Outlook

Recalling our earlier update on gold, the XAU/USD had formed an ascending triangle pattern, which was keeping gold steady below 1,512 resistance level, and it was also extending support at 1,500 level.


Just an hour ago, the XAU/USD violated the ascending triangle pattern on the lower side. Gold may drop further towards a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1,492. Whereas the violation of 1,492 could lead to gold prices deeper towards 1,485. 

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1480.69

S2 1493.37

S1 1499.52

Pivot Point 1506.06

R1 1512.2

R2 1518.74

R3 1531.43

Consider taking a sell position below the 1,500 level to target 1,494 and 1,486.

All the best!

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Forex Signals

Gold Surge Amid Boosted Haven Appeal – Trade War In Focus!

 Today in the early European session, the safe-haven metal prices slipped due to less expectation of the rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Earlier today, the U.S. Gold was down by 0.6% at $1,495.85 as Fed Rate Monitor Tool showed a high chance for a quarter-point rate cut when the Federal Reserve meets Oct. 28-29 at 69.5 percent, versus 72.7 percent on Monday and 78 percent on Friday. The lowered chances of easing by the Federal Reserve continued to hurt gold in post-settlement trade, sending it under the critical $1500 level.

As of writing this, the precious metal gold prices are surging in the wake of boosted safe-haven appeal amid the uncertainty. China-U.S. trade talks are expected to affect gold’s movement late this week when high-level negotiations between the two sides resume this Thursday.

Trade discussions are expected to manage the gold prices movement during this week when both high-level officials will do talks between the two sides’ resumes on Thursday.

At the Hong Kong front, the government of Hong Kong invoked a colonial-era emergency law to stop protesters wearing face masks. Due to this decision, further made the worst environment, which damage China’s banking facilities and retail outlets in the entire city.

Gold – Technical Analysis 

On the technical front, gold has for Doji pattern at 1,497 area, which has to extend support to gold since the morning while the RSI and MACD are shifting in the buy zone.  

   


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1456.57

S2 1476.39

S1 1484.55

Pivot Point 1496.21

R1 1504.37

R2 1516.03

R3 1535.85

Three bullish candles on the 4-hour chart are signaling chances of a further bullish trend. Today, gold may find an immediate resistance level at 1,513 and support at 1,487 level. Consider staying bearish below the triple top level of 1,513 zones. 

All the best

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Forex Market Analysis Forex Signals

Bullish Gold Heads for 61.8% Retracement – Weaker Dollar In Play! 

On Wednesday, the precious metal gold expanded after softer-than-expected U.S. economic figures which hiked concerns about global economic growth. Alongside this, it also raised chances of additional interest rate reductions, pushing traders towards the safe-haven metal.

The precious metal gold is still trading bullish adding 0.3% to trade at $1,483.6. Yesterday, gold slipped dramatically to place two months low at $1,458.50. However, the losses in gold were short-lived as it surged markedly as much as 1% during the late U.S. session.

The U.S. manufacturing activity dropped to a more than a decade low in September as imminent trade tautness pressures on exports. The vulnerable economic report raised global growth anxieties, leading global stock markets to a one-month low and boosting forecasts for further monetary policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Gold – Technical Outlook

On the technical front, gold has formed a bullish engulfing candle at 1,480 area, which is suggesting strong bullish bias among traders. On the upper side, gold is likely to meet the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1,492, but that’s only possible if it manages to crossover the 50% Fibo level of 1,487. 



Gold – Daily Technical Levels

Support    Resistance 

1,463.06    1,491.28

1,446.99    1,503.43

1,418.77    1,531.65

Pivot Point 1,475.21

Gold traders can consider trading bullish above 1,475 level today as the immediate target is likely to be 1,488 and 1,495. Selling can be seen below 1,498 level today. 

All the best!  

 

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Forex Market Analysis Forex Signals

Gold Loses Safe Haven, Can Triple Bottom Underpins? 

What’s happening on Gold?

On Monday, the yellow metal gold prices were headed distinctly lower, slipping beneath a psychologically vital level at $1,500 on the last trading day of a month as well as a quarter. 

Most of the bearish trend in gold is triggered by a more robust dollar and slight buying in the U.S. stocks and yields, pulling demand away from bullion market.

The U.S. President Donald Trump’s government is weighing delisting Chinese businesses from U.S. stock exchanges. Three specialists advised on the matter stated on Friday, in what would be a drastic intensification of U.S.-China trade tensions. 

This was supposed to drive a sharp buying in gold, but the subsequent news that the United States does not currently intend to prevent Chinese companies from entering on U.S. exchanges drove the risk-on sentiment in the market. 

Gold – Technical Outlook 

On the technical side, gold is trading at the triple bottom level of 1485, which is extending pretty solid support. The new candle has closed as a sort of hammer which may help drive bullish retracement in the gold. 

The leading indicator MACD is still forming bearish histograms, and its value stays at -14, suggesting a substantial bearish bias among traders.


The RSI and moving averages are still signaling bearish bias for gold, but may not see further selling until 1,485 gets violated. On the upperside, gold is likely to face resistance at 1,492 and 1,499. 

Gold – Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1,486.94    1,507.06

1,476.88    1,517.12

1,456.76    1,537.24

Pivot Point 1,497

Let’s seep an eye on 1497 to stay bearish and 1484 to remain bullish in gold today. All the best! Let’s

 

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Forex Market Analysis

XAUUSD Major Bear Move Ahead

The arc was holding as a strong support zone for gold, but we have ultimately seen it breakdown and out from that area. We have had an extended bear flag on this chart since the 21st of May and when combining Gann’s Market geometry with the Ichimoku system, we can see a clear and strong sell signal has been generated with both of these methods of analysis. I am targeting the 1282.68 zone as my first profit target area but we should and could see some support off of the 1×2 angle below us at the 1292.5 value area.