Tag: USD-JPY

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 27 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Weaker Dollar In-Play

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 97.65 in thin holiday trading. The Euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1101, and the British pound gained 0.3% to $1.3001. The USD/JPY climbed 0.2% to 109.54.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 97.65 in thin holiday trading. The Euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1101, and the British pound gained 0.3% to $1.3001. The USD/JPY climbed 0.2% to 109.54.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 97.65 in thin holiday trading. The Euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1101, and the British pound gained 0.3% to $1.3001. The USD/JPY climbed 0.2% to 109.54.

The U.S. Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims fell to 222,000 in the week ended December 21 (220k expected) from 235,000 in the prior week. Today, the focus is going to be on the technical side of the market as the economic calendar remains muted. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD edged up 0.1% to $1.1101, and the British pound gained 0.3% to $1.3001. The U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping would have a ceremony to sign the phase-one of the trade deal reached earlier this month. 

Mr. Lowe also added that the E.U. was failing, so they rammed the Euro in. He said that Euro was destined to fail and would have collapsed by now if it was not for massive quantitative easing by ECB.

On the other hand, the macroeconomic calendar remained empty on Thursday except for the U.S. jobless claims for the previous week. The U.S. unemployment claims during last week were recorded as 222K, which came in line with the expectations. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0974
  • S2 1.1031
  • S1 1.1053

Pivot Point 1.1089

  • R1 1.1111
  • R2 1.1146
  • R3   1.1203

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with the slightly bearish sentiment, and it’s very likely to test the next support area around 1.1110 on the 4-hour chart. The bearish breakout of this level can trigger further selling until 1.1085. Conversely, the bullish bias can lead the EUR/USD to 1.1125 and 1.1160 resistance levels. Let’s wait for the buy trade above 1.1110 today.  

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD gained 0.3% to $1.3001. Boris Johnson has announced to make his Brexit deal as law, and in case of not reaching a trade deal with E.U. by the end of next year, then U.K. will leave E.U. without any agreement. However, it was highly unlikely because PM Johnson now holds the majority of the U.K. Parliament. 

The Parliament has already approved his deal for leaving E.U., and there are fewer chances that E.U. & U.K. will not reach a trade deal. Furthermore, PM Johnson has also said that he would make sure the departure of the U.K. from the European Union on January 31.

The British economy has been showing weaknesses for some time, and it is possible that Bank of England would start easing its monetary policy soon, which will drag the GBP/USD pair back from 1.30 level.

In the U.K., the British Banker’s Association will report November finance loans for housing (41.2 billion pounds expected).

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2757
  • S2 1.2901
  • S1 1.2955

Pivot Point 1.3044

  • R1 1.3099
  • R2 1.3188
  • R3 1.3331

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has broken the support mark of 1.3060, and currently, this level is expected to serve as a resistance for the GBP/USD. On the downside, the GBP/USD can exhibit further selling until the next target level of 1.2940.

The RSI and MACD have now crossed over 50 and 0 zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal in the GBP/USD pair. Consider staying bullish above 1.2995 and bearish below 1.3100 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY fell to 109.48. This morning, official data showed that Japan’s jobless rate dropped to 2.2% in November (2.4% expected and in October), while industrial production slid 0.9% on the month (-1.0% expected). Also, retail sales grew 4.5% (+5.0% expected).

The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Thursday that the central bank would ease its monetary policy further without hesitation if the momentum toward its 2% inflation goal came under threat.

He also offered a brighter view of the global economic outlook and said that the Bank of Japan would not rush to change its current policy for now. After a week after Central bank kept its short term rates target at -0.1% and long-term at 0%, Kuroda said that the trend of Japan’s economy was at moderate growth.

However, the easing of global trade tensions has reduced the chances that the central bank would ease its monetary policy further. Reduction in uncertainties over the US-China trade war has played an essential role in facilitating global economic conditions.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.56
  • S2 108.97
  • S1 109.17

Pivot Point 109.38

  • R1 109.58
  • R2 109.8
  • R3 110.21

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has already completed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 109.200 level. Now, this level is supporting the safe-haven pair along with an immediate resistance around 109.350. 

The RSI and MACD are suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. The pair may trade bearish below 109.50 to target 109.200 and even below to 108.950 today. 

All the best!

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 23 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Durable Goods Ahead! 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 97.68. The euro slipped 0.4% to $1.1079. The German GfK Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 9.6 for January (9.8 expected) from 9.7 in December.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 97.68. The euro slipped 0.4% to $1.1079. The German GfK Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 9.6 for January (9.8 expected) from 9.7 in December.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 97.68. The euro slipped 0.4% to $1.1079. The German GfK Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 9.6 for January (9.8 expected) from 9.7 in December.

The British pound was little changed at $1.3004. U.K. House of Commons voted 358 to 234 in support of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal. 

Regarding U.S. economic data, third-quarter GDP growth was confirmed at an annualized rate of 2.1% on the quarter (as expected). Meanwhile, personal income rose 0.5% on month in November (+0.3% expected) and personal spending grew 0.4% (as expected). Later today, economists expect durable goods orders to rise 1.5% on month in November, while new home sales are anticipated to fall to 730,000 units.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing red and dropped to 1.1080 and failed to extend Friday’s declines from 100- Day Moving Average. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1078 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1073 – 1.1083.

At the yearly front, the EUR/USD currency pair has lost a significant part of the gains during the January 2017 – February 2018 period and trading bearish while ending 2019. As of now, the pair is trading near the 1.1082, representing a 3.17% decline on a year-to-date basis. Notably, the pair dropped by 14.14% during 2018.

The greenback strength held ground against the EUR currency over intensifying trade tensions, which pushed Germany to the recession. Besides this, the European Central Bank further delivered the rate cut into the negative territory during September and declared a fresh bond-buying program.

The market is expecting that the EUR/USD currency pair may pick up the strong bullish buying in 2020. Whereas, the continued gains could remain difficult if the Eurozone economic data do not show any substantial progress.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0974
  • S2 1.1031
  • S1 1.1053

Pivot Point 1.1089

  • R1 1.1111
  • R2 1.1146
  • R3    1.1203

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with the slightly bearish sentiment, and it’s very likely to test the next support area around 1.1110 on the 4-hour chart. The bearish breakout of this level can trigger further selling until 1.1085. Conversely, the bullish bias can lead the EUR/USD to 1.1125 and 1.1160 resistance levels. Let’s wait for the sell trade below 1.1110 today. 

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair failed to extend its bearish weekly streak despite the United Kingdom’s political uncertainty. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3013 and consolidates in the bearish range between the 1.2990 – 1.3017. Moreover, the cables traders seem to avoid declining political optimism in the United Kingdom.

The British pound was little changed at $1.3004. U.K. House of Commons voted 358 to 234 for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal.

The United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson succeeded in getting his European Union Withdrawal agreement bill passed from the new Parliament. Whereas, the House of Common has not passed the bill so far, but will have lesser stops considering the Tories majority.

The U.S. Commerce Department will release November durable goods orders (+1.5% on month expected) and new home sales (730,000 units expected). The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago will post November National Activity Index (-0.31 expected).


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2757
  • S2 1.2901
  • S1 1.2955

Pivot Point 1.3044

  • R1 1.3099
  • R2 1.3188
  • R3 1.3331

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has broken the support mark of 1.3060, and currently, this level is expected to serve as a resistance for the GBP/USD. On the downside, the GBP/USD can exhibit further selling until the next target level of 1.2940.

The RSI and MACD have now crossed over 50 and 0 zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal in the GBP/USD pair. Consider staying bullish above 1.2995 and bearish below 1.3100 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY was broadly flat at 109.44. The USD/JPY currency pair flashing green and picked up the bids to 109.50, mainly due to the United States President Donald Trump Weeknd’s positive comments. The pair also got support from the United States upbeat data, which turned the market risk-on. 

On the Weekend holidays, the United States President Donald Trump said: “We have just achieved progress on the trade deal, and we will be signing it very soon. The same motivates the risk-takers to start the holiday-shortened week on a positive side.

It is worth to mention that the Fridays strong United States GDP hit down the talks of the slowdown. Moreover, the reason behind the greenback strength was the upbeat data from the U.S., including Personal Consumption Expenditure and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Looking forward, the market traders will take note of the November month U.S. Durable Goods Orders, up for publishing on Monday, to verify the fresh, positive data from the U.S. The report of Durable Goods Orders is anticipated to increase by 1.9% from downwardly revised 0.5% previous.

Besides this, the November month Chicago Fed National Activity Index, as well as New Home Sales, will also entertain traders before spreading the holiday mood. Whereas the activity gauge is anticipated to recover to -0.09 against -0.71 earlier, the housing data could soften to 0.728M against 0.733M prior.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.56
  • S2 108.97
  • S1 109.17

Pivot Point 109.38

  • R1 109.58
  • R2 109.8
  • R3 110.21

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has already completed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 109.200 level. Now, this level is supporting the safe-haven pair along with an immediate resistance around 109.350. 

The RSI and MACD are suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. The pair may trade bearish below 109.50 to target 109.200 and even below to 108.950 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 20 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – GDP Figures in Highlights! 

On the forex front, the British pound slid 0.5% to a two-week low of $1.3017, posting a three-day decline. Official data showed that U.K. retail sales dropped 0.6% on month in November (+0.2% estimated), falling for a fourth straight month–the worst run since 1996. On the other hand, the Bank of England held its benchmark rate at 0.75% unchanged as expected.

On the forex front, the British pound slid 0.5% to a two-week low of $1.3017, posting a three-day decline. Official data showed that U.K. retail sales dropped 0.6% on month in November (+0.2% estimated), falling for a fourth straight month–the worst run since 1996. On the other hand, the Bank of England held its benchmark rate at 0.75% unchanged as expected.

On the forex front, the British pound slid 0.5% to a two-week low of $1.3017, posting a three-day decline. Official data showed that U.K. retail sales dropped 0.6% on month in November (+0.2% estimated), falling for a fourth straight month–the worst run since 1996. On the other hand, the Bank of England held its benchmark rate at 0.75% unchanged as expected.

The European Commission will release the eurozone’s December Consumer Confidence Index (-7.0 expected). In Germany, the GfK Consumer Confidence Index for January will be published (9.8 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair exhibit bearish bias to hit the low level of 1.1117 from the Tuesday high of 1.1175 ahead of United States data release. At the moment, the EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1116 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1114 – 1.1126. The pair has dropped but still staying inside the one-week-old symmetrical triangle.

The EUR/USD currency pair’s weekly candle now has a long upper shadow, which is a significant clue of bulls losing steam above the resistance of the trendline dropping from September 2018 and June 2019 highs.

The currency pairs trendline resistance is currently seen at 1.1148. The pair had increased to a high of 1.1175 previously but dropped again below 1.1148 on the next day. As a result, the consecutive failure of buyers to beat the convincing break above the trendlines has supported the negative risks, which may increase if the United States data ignore past expectations. The data is scheduled to release today.

If the personal spending and Core PCE release unexpectedly come out better, they will validate the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to pause the rate cuts and push the greenback higher.

On the other hand, a big miss may fuel the greenback sell-off. Looking forward, the EUR/USD currency pair will turn bullish mainly if the pair beats the weekly close above the trendline hurdle at 1.1148.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1108
  • S2 1.1112
  • S1 1.1114

Pivot Point 1.1116

  • R1 1.1118
  • R2 1.112
  • R3 1.1124

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Friday, the EUR/USD continues to trade mostly sideways, while investors await the U.S. GDP figures. The EUR/USD is trading with slightly bearish sentiment, and it’s very likely to test the next support area around 1.1110 on the 4-hour chart. 

The bearish breakout of this level can trigger further selling until 1.1085. Conversely, the bullish bias can lead the EUR/USD to 1.1125 and 1.1160 resistance levels. Let’s wait for the sell trade below 1.1110 today. 

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the bullish track and recovered to 1.3020, mainly due to optimism surrounding the Brexit due to the voting on the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s WAB. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3022. The GBP/USD traders seem confident ahead of the House of Commons voting on the UK PM’s Brexit bill.

The European Union Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) will allow the United Kingdom to leave the European Union on January 31 while it’s also arranging the stage for no transition period beyond December 2020. The bill will also allow more British judges to leave from the previous rulings of the European Union’s top court.

The U.K. Office for National Statistics will release final readings of third-quarter GDP (+1.0% on-year expected), current account (15.5 billion pounds deficit expected), and November public sector net borrowing excluding banking groups (6.1 billion pounds expected).

The voting result will be released at 15:00 GMT on Friday. Traders will likely watch the final figures of the United Kingdoms’ 3rd-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for new directions. According to the forecast, there will no change in the GDP figures on QoQ and YoY basis that are 0.3% and 1.0%, respectively.

Daily Support and Resistance

 

  • S3 1.2757
  • S2 1.29
  • S1 1.2955

Pivot Point 1.3044

  • R1 1.3098
  • R2 1.3188
  • R3 1.3331

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has broken the support mark of 1.3060, and currently, this level is expected to serve as a resistance for the GBP/USD. On the downside, the GBP/USD can exhibit further selling until the next target level of 1.2940.

The RSI and MACD have now crossed over 50 and 0 zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal in the GBP/USD pair. Consider staying bullish above 1.2995 and bearish below 1.3100 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 109.366 after placing a high of 109.685 and a low of 109.180. Overall the trend for USD/JPY on Thursday remained bearish after the Bank of Japan kept its rates unchanged on Thursday at minus -0.1% the pair USD/JPY dipped in the financial market. 

The BOJ voted 7 to 2 to keep its short-term interest rates at -0.1% and the long-term rates at 0%. According to the Central Bank of Japan, the economy was likely to continue on a moderate expanding trend. The impact of the global economic slowdown on domestic demand was expected to be limited in the future. Although the fears of global economic slowdown still prevail in the market.

Recently, the government of Japan implemented a $122B fiscal stimulus package to aid economic growth. Japanese debt levels highly criticized this idea, but it was a wise decision as the government implemented a consumer tax hike after that.

The global economic outlook was raised after the phase-one deal between the U.S. & China and the victory of Johnson in Britain elections. Bank of Japan revised its GDP forecast for next year to 1.4% from the previous prediction of 1.2%.

The positive gestures and statements in Bank of Japan’s monetary policy statement on Thursday weighed on USD/JPY prices.

Adding in the downward trend of pair USD/JPY was the U.S. economic data that day. At 18:30 GMT, the Current Account Balance for the 3rd Quarter of the U.S. declined to -124B from -122B expectations. The Unemployment claims from last week surged to 234K from expected 225K. The C.B. Leading Index also fell to 0.0%, and the Existing Home Sales dropped to 5.35M from 5.44M of expectations.

On the other hand, the U.S. House of Representatives voted in favor of passing the impeachment of Donald Trump and made him third U.S. president to be impeached. However, the U.S. Senate of Republicans is still to vote on this, and it is expected that they will not vote against Trump.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • S3 108.56
  • S2 108.97
  • S1 109.17

Pivot Point 109.38

  • R1 109.58
  • R2 109.79
  • R3 110.21

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has already completed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 109.200 level. Now, this level is supporting the safe-haven pair along with an immediate resistance around 109.350. 

The RSI and MACD are suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. The pair may trade bearish below 109.50 to target 109.200 and even below to 108.950 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 19 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for BOE Interest Rate

The U.S. Dollar Index was up for a second day, rising 0.2% to 97.40. The British pound lost 0.3% to $1.3085. Official data showed that U.K. core CPI grew 1.7% on year in November (as expected). On the other hand, the Bank of England is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 0.75% unchanged later today. Also, November retail sales will be reported (+0.2% on month estimated).

The U.S. Dollar Index was up for a second day, rising 0.2% to 97.40. The British pound lost 0.3% to $1.3085. Official data showed that U.K. core CPI grew 1.7% on year in November (as expected). On the other hand, the Bank of England is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 0.75% unchanged later today. Also, November retail sales will be reported (+0.2% on month estimated).

The U.S. Dollar Index was up for a second day, rising 0.2% to 97.40. The British pound lost 0.3% to $1.3085. Official data showed that U.K. core CPI grew 1.7% on year in November (as expected). On the other hand, the Bank of England is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 0.75% unchanged later today. Also, November retail sales will be reported (+0.2% on month estimated).

The euro dropped 0.3% to $1.1115. The German Ifo Business Climate Index climbed to 96.3 in December (95.5 expected) from 95.1 in November.

Later today, the U.S. Labor Department will report initial jobless claims for the week ending December 14 (225,000 expected, 252,000 in the prior week). Existing home sales are expected to slightly decrease to an annualized rate of 5.44 million units in November (5.46 million units in October).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing green and hit the bullish track from the average support and picked up some buying mainly due to greenback weakness. Although, the currency pair did not beat the 200-day Moving Average so far. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1126 and representing 0.14% gains. By the way, the pair is now consolidating in the range between the 1.1113 – 1.1133.

President Donald Trump was accused by the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday night for the abuse of power. The House also approved a 2nd-charge that Trump obstructed a Congress investigation. The greenback came under pressure after the impeachment news hit the wires. 

It should be noted that the declines in the greenback were modest and will likely be reversed during Europe as the Senate, which is controlled by Trump’s Republican Party, possibly absolve to him of all charges. Moreover, the chances of Donald Trump vacating office are low. Looking forward, the Senate trial will likely start in January. 

With the German economy showing indications of bottoming out and heading into New Year with more confidence, there seem fewer chances that EUR traders will pick up the selling trend.

From a technical perspective, the currency pair is currently trading in no man’s land. A close above the 200-day average at 1.1151 is needed to revive the short-term bullish setup. On the flip side, a break below Wednesday’s low of 1.1115 would imply a short-term bearish reversal. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1117
  • S2 1.1121
  • S1 1.1124

Pivot Point 1.1126

  • R1 1.1128
  • R2 1.113
  • R3 1.1134

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

Technically, the EUR/USD traded mostly sideways ahead of CPI, and German Business Climate figures. The EUR/USD is trading with a slightly bearish bias, and it’s very likely to test the bullish trendline on the 4-hour chart. The bullish trendline is expected to support the EUR/USD above 1.1125. Continuation of a bullish bias over 1.1125 can hold EUR/USD bullish unto 1.1160 and 1.1185. The EUR/USD’s next support lingers around 1.1095 today,

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair still found under pressure and hit the weekly lows despite the greenback weakness and waiting for fresh clues from the United Kingdom data/events which are scheduled to be released. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3081 and consolidates in the range between 1.3072 – 1.3091.

At the USD front, the greenback showed a broad-based weakness mainly due to the House Representatives, which voted to impeach President Trump. The House also approved a 2nd-charge that Trump obstructed a Congress investigation. Moreover, the ball will meet the Senate someday during early January for the opposition Democrats to make Donald Trump as the 3rd in the history to get impeached.

The GBP currency traders will keep their eyes on the November month Retail Sales ahead of the monetary policy meeting of the Bank of England and the British Queens speech setting out the Conservative government’s agenda for the coming year. The trader will also carefully observe the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, Existing Home Sales, and Weekly Jobless Claims.

For now, BOE is likely to keep the rate unchanged at 0.75%. However, the markets are pricing a 65% probability of a rate cut by May 2020. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.295
  • S2 1.3019
  • S1 1.3049

Pivot Point 1.3089

  • R1 1.3118
  • R2 1.3159
  • R3 1.3229

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a slightly bullish bias now above 1.3178 as the pair has violated the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3240. Below the same mark, the 50 periods EMA is likely to provide resistance to the GBP/USD. 

The RSI and MACD are holding in the oversold zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal upon completion above the double bottom support level of 1.3095. Today, consider taking buying trades above 1.3100 and bearish trades below 1.3178. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair dropped from the weekly high after the United States House of Representatives voted to impeach President Donald Trump. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair s currently trading at 109.60 even after the status quo BOJ and remains stuck in the same range between the 109.56 – 109.59.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained the short-term interest rate at -0.1 and kept the 10-year yield target unchanged around 0%, as expected. The risk-off sentiment is expected to remain ahead. The United States’ ten-year treasury yields fell to 1.90%, whereas the S&P 500 Futures also decreases.

Looking forward, traders will keep their eyes on the monetary policy decision by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Ahead of the releases, analysts at T.D. Securities said, “The Bank Of Japan will continue its last meeting of the year. This should move with little fanfare because the BOJ has made the necessary changes in October.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.07
  • S2 109.3
  • S1 109.43

Pivot Point 109.53

  • R1 109.66
  • R2 109.76
  • R3 109.99

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

From the technical perspective, a breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from the December low of 108.46 and may yield a rally to 110.00. On the flip side, range breakdown will likely allow a re-test of support at 109.20-109.00. 

On the technical side, the USD/JPY consolidates below 109.700 resistance level.

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is supporting the USD/JPY pair around 109.200 level. While the RSI and MACD are suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. The pair may trade bearish below 109.53 to target 109.200 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 18 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes On UK CPI!

On the forex front, the British pound plunged 1.6% to $1.3122, wiping out its gains since the election day last Thursday. Media reported that U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson might amend the withdrawal agreement bill to block any further extension of Brexit. Hence the prospect of a no-deal Brexit is still on the table.

On the forex front, the British pound plunged 1.6% to $1.3122, wiping out its gains since the election day last Thursday. Media reported that U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson might amend the withdrawal agreement bill to block any further extension of Brexit. Hence the prospect of a no-deal Brexit is still on the table.

On the forex front, the British pound plunged 1.6% to $1.3122, wiping out its gains since the election day last Thursday. Media reported that U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson might amend the withdrawal agreement bill to block any further extension of Brexit. Hence the prospect of a no-deal Brexit is still on the table.

Also, the U.K.’s official data showed that the jobless rate for the three months to October was steady at 3.8% (3.9% expected). Later today, investors will focus on U.K. consumer inflation data for November (CPI +1.4% on year expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair remains in the red territory and hits the strong bearish track after got repeated rejection to cross the 200-day Moving Average resistance. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1133, representing a 0.14% declines on the day and consolidates in the range between 1.1131 – 1.1155.

The EUR/USD pair hit the high level of 1.1155 but failed to beat the 200-day Moving Average resistance. Looking forward, the currency pair will likely pick up further selling trend if the German data disappoints expectations, whereas if the German data beats expectations figures, the currency pair can beat the 200-day Moving average.

It should also be noted that the buyers failed to secure a daily close above the long-term average for the 4th-straight day on Tuesday because the range between the United States and German ten-year bond yields increased nearly 5-basis points to 218 basis points.

Looking ahead, the German IFO survey, scheduled to release at 09:00 GMT, is expected to show the expectations index increased to 93.0 in December from 92.1, according to the latest survey of analysts. 

As we recently mentioned that an above-forecast figure is needed to confirm last week’s ZEW survey, which showed the German economy has bottomed out and draws bids for the EUR currency. Moreover, an upbeat on expectations will likely yield a move above the 200-day MA at 1.1151.

The European Central Bank’s President, Lagarde, is scheduled to speak at 08:30 GMT. Lagarde is unlikely to sound dovish and will likely repeat the need for fiscal stimulus. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1062
  • S2 1.1107
  • S1 1.113

Pivot Point 1.1153

  • R1 1.1176
  • R2 1.1198
  • R3 1.1243

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

Technically, the EUR/USD traded mostly sideways ahead of CPI, and German Business Climate figures. The EUR/USD is trading with a slightly bearish bias, and it’s very likely to test the bullish trendline on the 4-hour chart. The bullish trendline is likely to support the EUR/USD above 1.1125. Continuation of a bullish bias over 1.1125 can hold EUR/USD bullish unto 1.1160 and 1.1185. The EUR/USD’s next support lingers around 1.1095 today,

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and hit the four-day lows of 1.309 down -0.30% on the day. The currency pair continues its bearish streak and still under pressure. That is mainly due to hard Brexit fears intensified after UK PM Johnson’s confirmed to the parliament that his office planned to ensure by law that the U.K.’s post-Brexit departure period will end in Dec 2020. 

As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading 1.3102 and consolidates in the range between the 1.3072 – 1.3135.

It should be noted that the departure uncertainty regarding Brexit was always considered as the risk faced by the GBP currency, but it was priced in sooner than anticipated. As a result, the soft Brexit premium is currently being priced out of GBP, and buyers have been sent back from the buying track.

At the greenback front, the U.S. Dollar (USD) benefited from the upbeat industrial production and housing market numbers along with the welcome comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. The greenback also got the support of trade-related positive statements from the Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.

Looking forward, the GBP buyers will closely observe the November month inflation data, whereas the Fed speak will likely offer additional hints. In this regard, T.D. Securities said, “We look for CPI to edge a touch lower to 1.4% y/y in November (market 1.5%). Underlying this, we expect core CPI to hold unchanged at 1.7% y/y (market 1.6%) for the 3rd-month in a row. 


Daily Support and Resistance 

  • S3 1.2774
  • S2 1.2976
  • S1 1.3054

Pivot Point 1.3178

  • R1 1.3256
  • R2 1.338
  • R3 1.3581

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading bearish below 1.3178 as the pair has violated the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3240. Below the same mark, the 50 periods EMA is likely to provide resistance to the GBP/USD. 

The RSI and MACD are holding in the oversold zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal upon completion above the double bottom support level of 1.3095. Today, consider taking buying trades above 1.3100 and bearish trades below 1.3178. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 109.472 after placing a high of 109.632 and a low of 109.441. Overall the trend for USD/JPY pair remained bearish that day.

On the data side, at 2:00 GMT, the U.S. Department of the Treasury published the TIC Long-Term Purchases for October, and it showed a decline to 32.5B from expected 52.2B and weighed on U.S. dollar.

The Building Permits from the United States showed growth in November when released at 18:30 GMT. In the previous month, it was expected that 1.41M building permits would be issued. Still, according to the reports, the number of actual building permits in November exceeded the expectations and came in as 1.48M to support the U.S. dollar.

The number of U.S. residential buildings that began construction during November also exceeded the expectations and supported the U.S. dollar on Tuesday. It was expected that 1.34M house buildings would start its construction, but in actual 1.37M, housing starts.

At 19:15 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from Federal Reserve was published, which showed that 77.3% of available resources were being utilized during November. The expected figure was almost the same 77.4% and did not affect the U.S. dollar. However, Industrial Production from the United States for November also increased to 1.1% from expected 0.8% and supported the U.S. dollar.

At 20:00 GMT, the JOLTS Job Openings for October showed growth to 7.27M from the expected 7.01M and supported the U.S. dollar. And at 20:01 GMT, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism for the month of December was surged to 57.0 from forecasted 54.2 and supported U.S. dollar on Tuesday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.14
  • S2 109.34
  • S1 109.42

Pivot Point 109.53

  • R1 109.62
  • R2 109.72
  • R3 109.92

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the technical side, the USD/JPY consolidates below 109.700 resistance level. The same level marks a triple top pattern has the USD/JPY faced a hard time violating it back on Dec 1, 13, and 16. 

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is supporting the USD/JPY pair around 109.200 level. While the RSI and MACD are suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. The pair may trade bearish below 109.53 to target 109.200 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 13 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Borish Johnson’s Takes a Lead! 

Welcome to the last trading day of a week. The British Pound surged 2.1% to a six-month high of $1.3474. U.K. exit polls predicted that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative party would win a majority in the House of Commons.

Welcome to the last trading day of a week. The British Pound surged 2.1% to a six-month high of $1.3474. U.K. exit polls predicted that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative party would win a majority in the House of Commons.

Welcome to the last trading day of a week. The British Pound surged 2.1% to a six-month high of $1.3474. U.K. exit polls predicted that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative party would win a majority in the House of Commons.

The euro advanced 0.5% to $1.1184. While the European Central Bank kept its monetary policy unchanged as expected, President Christine Lagarde said there are some indications of stabilization in the slowdown in the Eurozone’s growth and downside risks are less pronounced.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

AUD/USD – Daily Analysis

The AUD/USD currency pair flashing green and hit the fresh one-month highs closer to the 0.690 levels. The AUD/USD currency pair is trading at 0.6909 and consolidates n the range between 0.6867 – 0.6910. The AUD/USD did not take any effect from the greenback strength and had continued its bullish rally.

The buying tone surrounding the China-proxy Aussie seemed rather unaffected by persistent risk regarding a phase one trade deal ahead of the December 15 deadline for the new U.S. tariffs on around $156 billion worth of Chinese imports.

At the Sino-US front, the U.S. President Donald Trump is yet to decide on the December 15 tariffs, though optimism continues on the back of news that negotiators were laying the groundwork for a preliminary deal to end the trade war.

Looking forward, Thursday’s U.S. economic docket, featuring the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), will likely influence the USD price dynamics and produce some short-term trading opportunities during the early North-American session.

Daily Support and Resistance 

  • R3 0.7038
  • R2 0.6977
  • R1 0.6953

Pivot Point 0.6915

  • S1 0.6891
  • S2 0.6854
  • S3 0.6793

AUD/USD– Trading Tips

The AUD/USD pair is hanging around 0.6900, trading mostly bullish despite staying in the overbought zone. The traded higher further above the 0.6865 mark, the 61.8% Fibo retracement level of its November slide. In the 4-hour chart, the 20 SMA has hastened north over the bigger ones, all of them under the current mark. In contrast, the technical indicators lead to the north in overbought territory, without indications of bullish exhaustion. The rally is set to remain on a break over 0.6930, the next resistance.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The British Pound surged 2.1% to a six-month high of $1.3474. U.K. exit polls predicted that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative party would win a majority in the House of Commons.

The British Pound advanced piercingly overnight following the Conservative Party of Boris Johnson, who won a substantial majority in the General Election, and while the GBP has found a temporary resistance. Fundamentally, I do see the potential for further gains after sterling completes the bearish retracement. 

Besides this, the focus is on trade wars whereby an official announcement is expected to come from U.S. President Donald Trump. Bloomberg reported in recent trade that Trump would meet with his trade advisers at 19:30 GMT. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, White House economic adviser Kudlow and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are expected to attend the meeting.

The latest reports are that the United States has considered offering a 50% reduction on $360 billion worth of Chinese imports, which raised market spirits, fulling higher benchmarks and gave an increase in U.S. Treasury bond yields. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2969
  • S2 1.3071
  • S1 1.3133

Pivot Point 1.3173

  • R1 1.3235
  • R2 1.3276
  • R3 1.3378

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is presently consolidating around at1.3457, placing around 19-month high to 1.3515 during the U.S. session yesterday. The U.K. election exit polls foretelling a big win for the incumbent Prime Minister Boris Johnson. 

The GBP/USD pair’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is now floating around 80.47. I must say it’s the highest mark since January 2018. An above 70-reading shows overbought situations. Consider capturing retracement below 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair was flashing green and climber from 108.60 to 109.30, hit the highest level for one-week mainly due to the latest trade headlines in which U.S. President Trump suggests an imminent deal with China. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.36 and consolidates in the range between 108.45 – 109.44.

Fresh expectations regarding a deal between the United States and China on tariffs before the December 15 deadline supported equity markets. The Dow Jones reached new record highs and now is up 0.35%, off highs as the optimism eased. 

The United States bonds fell, pushing the yen lower across the board. The United States’ ten-year yield raised by more than 5% as it soared to 1.90% from 1.80% just in a few minutes. Other save haven assets like gold, also dropped significantly. 

More headlines related to trade may continue to flow, giving an impact on market sentiment. The rally of the USD/JPY was also supported by technical factors. The pair climbed above the 109.00 area, breaking a 7-day trading range. It also rose back above the 20-day moving average that stands at 108.80, level that could be seen now as the immediate support. The next support is the lower limit of the mentioned range around 108.40.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 107.94
  • S2 108.28
  • S1 108.42

Pivot Point 108.61

  • R1 108.75
  • R2 108.94
  • R3 109.27

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY rose 0.8% to 109.40 as investors’ risk appetite grew. The pair is heading towards the double top resistance level of around 109.700. Below this, the USD/JPY is likely to show a bearish correction of up to 38.2% level, which stays at 109.200. 

On the higher side, the bullish breakout of USD/JPY can lead the Japanese pair towards 110.300. The MACD and RSI are in support of the bullish trend. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 11 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for FOMC & Fed Rate!

The forex market extends trading sessions mostly with the mixed sentiments as the trader’s eye remains on the Fed Policy decision and CPI rate today. The FOMC will publish its policy statement, and Chairman Powell will be giving his comments on the policy standpoint. Ahead of this event, the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.22% at 97.45 on Tuesday, supporting the pair stay relaxed above the 0.6800 handles. 

The forex market extends trading sessions mostly with the mixed sentiments as the trader’s eye remains on the Fed Policy decision and CPI rate today. The FOMC will publish its policy statement, and Chairman Powell will be giving his comments on the policy standpoint. Ahead of this event, the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.22% at 97.45 on Tuesday, supporting the pair stay relaxed above the 0.6800 handles. 

The forex market extends trading sessions mostly with the mixed sentiments as the trader’s eye remains on the Fed Policy decision and CPI rate today. The FOMC will publish its policy statement, and Chairman Powell will be giving his comments on the policy standpoint. Ahead of this event, the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.22% at 97.45 on Tuesday, supporting the pair stay relaxed above the 0.6800 handles. 

Today, the trader’s focus will stay on the U.S. Monetary Policy and CPI rate from the U.S. Let’s brace for it. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals. 

AUD/USD – Daily Analysis

The AUD/UD currency pair flashing green and rose to 0.6835, mainly due to the upbeat data from Australia and unexpectedly higher inflation figures from China. As of writing, the AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6814 and consolidates in the range between the 0.6800 – 0.6837.

The currency pair struggled to maintain its recovery rally due to a lack of progress surrounding the United States and China trade war and fell to a fresh weekly low of 0.6800 before recovering modesty.

The National Australia Bank’s Business Conditions Index remained unchanged at 4 in November, but it beat the expectations of 2. On the other, the annual House Price Index for the third quarter came in at -3.7%, after a second quarter’s figure of -7.4%, which supported the Australian Dollar.

In the second half of the day, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the U.S. and China’s trade negotiators are working toward delaying the December 15 tariff hike. That gave a boost to the market sentiment and trade-sensitive AUD.

During the Asian session on Wednesday, Westpac Consumer Confidence Index from Australia, which is expected to drop to -0.7% in December from 4.5% in November, will be keeping under the eyes. 

Following in the day, the FOMC will release its policy statement, and Chairman Powell will be delivering his remarks on the policy outlook. Ahead of this event, the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.22% at 97.45 on Tuesday, supporting the pair stay relaxed above the 0.6800 handles.

While reviewing Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, “after three cuts in a series, we expect the Fed to remain on hold (target range 1.50-1.75%) when it meets next week,” said Danske Bank analysts. “FOMC members have made it clear that they think the ‘current stance of monetary policy is appropriate’ and that they now want to wait some time and see how everything plays out before acting again.”


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 0.6795
  • S2 0.6811
  • S1 0.6817

Pivot Point 0.6826

  • R1 0.6833
  • R2 0.6842
  • R3 0.6858

AUD/USD– Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the AUD/USD is consolidating mostly bearish after falling below 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6820. It has also completed 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6795. The AUD/USD pair is now trading around 0.6808, in between the upper limit of 0.6820 and a lower limit of 0.6795. 

 A bearish breakout of 0.6795 level can extend selling until 0.6775. The MACD is holding below 0, suggesting the chances of a bearish trend continuation in Aussie. Let’s look for buying above 0.6775 and selling below 0.6820level. 

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing green and hit the seven-months high from the bearish level of 1.3132 to 1.3189 while heading toward the United Kingdom elections on Thursday, and the result of elections will be released early Friday morning. As of writing, the currency is currently trading at 1.3188 and consolidates in the range between the 1..3132 to 1.3197.

According to the current situation, the Tories are ready to win the U.K. election, which may put the Brexit deal to bed. Today, the United Kingdom’s economic data don’t take a front seat due to the election hype, despite flat figures for Gross Domestic Produce for October. 

The GDP figures have followed 2-consecutive monthly contractions, which means we have now seen 3-consecutive months of negative/zero m/m growth for the 1st-time since 2009.

It should be noted that after this week’s snap December election, the next difficulty for the United Kingdom markets is next week’s Bank of England decision. However, the United Kingdom data continues to fall at a moderate rate since the last BoE meeting, which drives the dovish sentiment regarding the next rate decision. 

Looking forward, the markets will keep their focus on the Federal Open Market Committee and the Federal Reserve after the interest rate decision. Rates are expected to remain stable at 1.50-1.75%, while patience rhetoric will follow previous Federal Reserve speeches and statements furnished with preconditions before rate cut again in the future. 

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3056
  • S2 1.3104
  • S1 1.3124

Pivot Point 1.3153

  • R1 1.3173
  • R2 1.3202
  • R3 1.325

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The cable pair holds a bullish tone, but it is showing some short-term bearish signals after being unable to stay on top of 1.3160. Nevertheless, the trend in the pair points clearly to the upside, and consolidation of the GBP/USD above 1.3180 would expose the pair towards 1.3200. The prices need to cross May month high near 1.3180 to target 1.3200 and 1.3270 figures to the north, declining to do so highlights Wednesday’s top surrounding 1.3120 as immediate support. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the bullish track and reached 108.75, mainly due to the Wall Street Journal reported that the United States and China trade talks are working toward delaying the tariff hike. After fastening to a fresh daily bullish of 108.75, the pair USD/JPY currency pair reversed slightly and was last seen trading at 108.62, where it was up 0.05% on a daily chart.

The U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are planning for a delay of a fresh round of tariffs set to impose on December 15, according to officials on both sides. The market reaction to this headline also provided the ten-year United States Treasury bond yield to cancel its daily losses and helped the S&P 500 futures to move into the positive territory, pointing out to a positive shift in the market sentiment.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index remains to move sideways a little above the 97.50 marks to allow the risk perception to continue to drive the pair’s action.

At the starting of today, the NFIB Business Optimism Index in the U.S. increased to 104.7 during November from 102.4, but the Unit Labor Costs rose 2.5% in the 3rd-quarter to drop short of the market expectation for an increase of 3.3%. But, these readings were largely ignored by the market members ahead of the FOMC’s monetary policy announcements on Wednesday. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.06
  • S2 108.31
  • S1 108.43

Pivot Point 108.56

  • R1 108.68
  • R2 108.8
  • R3 109.05

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY is likely to trade sideways until the release of FOMC and U.S. inflation rates. The pair is trading above 108.550, which is working as a double bottom support level. A bearish breakout of this level can trigger selling until 108.250. The USD/JPY has already completed 81% retracement on three hourly charts, and this level can give some support to USD/JPY. Above this, the pair may find resistance around 108.900. Let’s wait for FOMC to determine the further trend of USD/JPY. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 10 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on British GDP Figures! 

The market continues to trade mixed risk sentiment due to diminishing expectations of no interest rate cuts by the Fed and delay in the trade deal. The top White House Economic Adviser, Larry Kudlow, confirmed on Friday that the December 15 deadline to impose new tariffs on around $156 billion worth Chinese products remains in place.  

The market continues to trade mixed risk sentiment due to diminishing expectations of no interest rate cuts by the Fed and delay in the trade deal. The top White House Economic Adviser, Larry Kudlow, confirmed on Friday that the December 15 deadline to impose new tariffs on around $156 billion worth Chinese products remains in place.  

The market continues to trade mixed risk sentiment due to diminishing expectations of no interest rate cuts by the Fed and delay in the trade deal. The top White House Economic Adviser, Larry Kudlow, confirmed on Friday that the December 15 deadline to impose new tariffs on around $156 billion worth Chinese products remains in place.  

At the same time, he also said that the U.S. President Donald Trump is satisfied with the recent progress in trade discussions. Yet he is not looking to go with the current phase one trade deal. 

Today, the trader’s focus will stay on the British GDP and further events from the Eurozone. Let’s brace for it. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair continues its bullish moves mainly due to the greenback’s bearish reversal across the board and weaker United States Treasury yields. As of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.1064 and consolidates in the narrow range between the 1.1053 – 1.1078.

Besides, the currency pair picked up the fresh buying during the last hour, in the wake of the revived trade war between the United States and China. The dismal of China trade data also depressed the market mood.

The lowered demand for higher-yielding assets such as the Treasury yields pushed the U.S. dollar broadly lower. The USD index corrects Friday’s positive U.S. payrolls led upsurge to 97.84, now trading at session lows of 97.63, -0.15% on the day.

Even after the recent bullish moves, the currency pair still in the red zone because the greenback may remain supported by the stronger United States employment data that diminished the 2020 rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve.

At the ECB front, the European Central Bank (ECB) President Largerde will deliver her first speech as a president regarding monetary policy during this Thursday. She will likely provide a hint about the ECB’s commitment to the recent stimulus package that included a rate cut and the restarting of the quantitative rate cut(Q.E.) program.

Meanwhile, the markets now await the Eurozone Sentix Investor Sentiment data, which is de during the European session today. Better-than-expected German Trade and Current Account data also collaborate with the positive tone around the shared currency.

Furthermore, the investor’s confidence in the Eurozone increased sharply in December, despite rising US-China trade tensions and the German slowdown, the latest data published by the Sentix research group showed on Monday.

The quote climbed to +0.7 in December from -4.5 in November and against a figure of -4.9 expected. The investors’ confidence hit the highest since March 2018.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.093
  • S2 1.1
  • S1 1.1031

Pivot Point 1.107

  • R1 1.1101
  • R2 1.1141
  • R3 1.1211

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has disappointed in its first test of the 5-month downtrend at 1.1113. The EUR/USD is trending lower but has not gained any support until now. The EUR/USD has next support near 61.8% Fibonacci support level of 1.1040.  

While the resistance stays around 1.1070, and the 1.1075 horizontal resistance mark strictly follows it. Considering the recent crossover on MACD, the pair may trade bearish below the 1.1070 level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and representing declines to 1.3135 from the highest level since early April of 1.3180 after the release of a new poll ahead of the snap December elections in the United Kingdom. The Cable experienced a slight bearish reversal on Monday and mostly traded at 1.3155/60, up 20 pips for the day. 

The GBP/USD currency pair was seen on the bullish track on Monday, but it remains under 1.3200. The GBP continues to be supported by the polls showing a top position of the Conservatives Party. Just minutes ago, the fresh opinion poll by ICM revealed that the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johson’s Conservative Party remain unchanged at 42%. In contrast, support for the party rose by 1 point to 36%. The Tory slightly pushed lower the GBP in advance.

The reversal in the GBP/USD currency pair was limited as the volatility remain low, and the U.S. dollar continued to show slight bearish bias. 

Looking forward, the critical event in the U.S. will be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Analysts and traders are also focusing on trade progress as the December 15 deadline for hiking tariffs on Chinese goods remains in highlights. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3004
  • S2 1.3069
  • S1 1.3103

Pivot Point 1.3134

  • R1 1.3168
  • R2 1.32
  • R3 1.3265

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On the technical side, the cable pair holds a bullish tone, but it is showing some short-term bearish signals after being unable to stay on top of 1.3160. Nevertheless, the trend in the pair points clearly to the upside, and consolidation of the GBP/USD above 1.3180 would expose the pair towards 1.3200. 

The prices need to cross May month high near 1.3180 to target 1.3200 and 1.3270 figures to the north, declining to do so highlights Wednesday’s top surrounding 1.3120 as immediate support.

In the daily timeframe, the GBP/USD has an upward crossover on MACD. Lastly, the three white candles on the daily timeframe are suggesting bullish bias among traders. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the five-days low below the 108.50 ahead of important macroeconomic events. The pair struggle to stage a recovery on Monday and was last seen trading at 108.49, a few pips above the 5-day low that it set at 108.43 in the last hour.

The economic figures showed that the business sentiment grew slightly during November with the Eco Watchers Survey’s Outlook and the Current indexes both coming out better than their October figures.

Looking forward, the trader will keep their eyes on the fresh progress surrounding the United States and China trade talks. If both sides could make a deal and sign the phase-one of the trade deal ahead of the United States tariff hike on Chinese imports on December 15, a relief rally will likely cause the Japanese Yen to lose interest as a safe-haven and support the pair gain bullish moves.

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be publishing its monetary policy decisions on Wednesday. In contrast, the FOMC is not expected to make any changes to its policy rate. It will be interesting to see how the Fed estimates the positive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. 

Last week on Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 266,000 during November to cross the market expectation of 180,000 and provided a boost to the U.S. Dollar Index. Consequently, the USD/JPY pair got bullish support. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 futures are virtually unchanged on the day, hinting that Wall Street is likely to open flat to reiterate the neutral market sentiment.


Daily Support and Resistance   

  • S3 107.85
  • S2 108.26
  • S1 108.44

Pivot Point 108.68

  • R1 108.85
  • R2 109.1
  • R3 109.51

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the demand for haven assets and weaker U.S. dollar has driven sharp selling in the USD/JPY currency pair this week. For now, the pair is trading above 108.550, which is working as a double bottom support level.

A bearish breakout of this level can trigger selling until 108.250. The USD/JPY has already completed 81% retracement on three hourly charts, and this level can give some support to USD/JPY. Above this, the pair may find resistance around 108.900. Let’s wait for NFP to determine the further trend of USD/JPY. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 09 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Mixed Risk Sentiment In Play!

The U.S. dollar rebounded against other major currencies, as the ICE U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 97.68, halting a six-session losing streak. EUR/USD lost 0.4% to close at 1.1060. Germany’s industrial production declined 1.7% on month in October (+0.1% expected).

The U.S. dollar rebounded against other major currencies, as the ICE U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 97.68, halting a six-session losing streak. EUR/USD lost 0.4% to close at 1.1060. Germany’s industrial production declined 1.7% on month in October (+0.1% expected).

The U.S. dollar rebounded against other major currencies, as the ICE U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 97.68, halting a six-session losing streak. EUR/USD lost 0.4% to close at 1.1060. Germany’s industrial production declined 1.7% on month in October (+0.1% expected).

The U.S. Labor Department reported that the economy added 266,000 nonfarm payrolls in November (+180,000 expected, +156,000 in October). The jobless rate dropped to 3.5% from 3.6%, the lowest level since 1969. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan Sentiment Index (preliminary reading) rose to 99.2 in December (97.0 expected) from 96.8 in November.

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

Economic Events to Watch Today

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair is flashing red and representing marginal declines on the day, mainly due to the tension of the intensified trade war between the United States and China. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1055 and consolidates in the narrow range between 1.1053 – 1.1061.

As we know, the pair had closed above 1.1097 during the Thursday, canceling the lower highs setup on the daily chart and confirming the bullish reversal. The breakout was short-lived because the currency pair fell from 1.1110 to 1.1040 during the U.S. trading session in the wake of the Nonfarm Payrolls figure.

At the fed front, the traders priced out chances of 25-basis-points rate cut by the Federal Reserve rate cut in 2020 after the release of the upbeat United States employment report. While on the U.S. dollar front, the greenback may remain in buying mainly due to upbeat payrolls data and trade tensions.

The data released during the weekend showed China’s exports to the U.S. dropped by 23% in November, the most significant monthly decline since February. 

The depressing figures may convince the United States President Donald Trump that his trade war is creating desired results, and he will likely move forward with a tariff spike on $160 billion of Chinese goods.

At the Sino-US front, the tensions regarding the United States and China intensified trade war will likely keep the shared currency under pressure. Ultimately, the trade fears have pushed Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.093
  • S2 1.1
  • S1 1.1031

Pivot Point 1.107

  • R1 1.1101
  • R2 1.1141
  • R3 1.1211

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has disappointed in its first test of the 5-month downtrend at 1.1113. The EUR/USD is trending lower but has not gained any support until now. The EUR/USD has next support near 61.8% Fibonacci support level of 1.1040.  

While the resistance stays around 1.1070, and it’s strictly followed by the 1.1075 horizontal resistance mark. Considering the recent crossover on MACD, the pair may trade bearish below the 1.1070 level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

 The GBP/USD currency pair is flashing green and representing 0.10% gains on the day in the wake of weekend polls. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3146 and consolidates in the range of 1.3133 – 1.3151. 

The market traders seem very careful to continue the recent bullish streak beyond the 7-month high ahead of the snap December election in the United Kingdom.

Moreover, the weekend survey indicates that the ruling Conservative Party continues to maintain top position across all major surveys. However, the opposition Labour Party seems to cut the lead as far as data from ComRes and Deltapoll are concerned. 

The fresh news from the U.K. politics shows that the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson agrees that there will be insignificant checks between the U.K. and Northern Ireland. The United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johson has been criticized many times for not coming in the General debates. Still, the recent one on Channel 4 looks to be suitable for the Tories. 

At the Sino-US front, the United States (U.S.) did not reduce the scope of fresh tariffs on Chinese goods that are up for December 15. The same thing keeps market players under pressure because phase-one talks are yet to provide any strong development.

The traders will keep their eyes on Thursday’s election, as well as monthly figures of Manufacturing Production, Industrial Production, and Gross Domestic Product will likely offer fresh direction to the cable pair.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3004
  • S2 1.3069
  • S1 1.3103

Pivot Point 1.3134

  • R1 1.3168
  • R2 1.32
  • R3 1.3265

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On the technical side, the prices need to cross May month high near 1.3180 to target 1.3200 and 1.3270 figures to the north, declining to do so highlights Wednesday’s top surrounding 1.3120 as immediate support.

In the daily timeframe, the GBP/USD has an upward crossover on MACD. Lastly, the three white candles on the daily timeframe are suggesting bullish bias among traders. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and found near the 108.58, in short, the pair stays moderately changed to Friday range despite the upbeat growth data from Japan. As of writing, the USD/JPY Currency Pair currently trading at 108.58 and consolidates in the narrow range between the 108.55 – 108.67.

The final figures of Japan’s 3rd-quarter (Q3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased past-0.2% forecast and 0.1% preliminary expectations to +0.4% on QoQ basis. Though the annually figures matched no change expectations of 0.6%. Moreover, Japan’s Trade Balance on Balance of Payment (BOP) Basis for October crossed ¥1.1 B before a whooping ¥254 B.

Markets risk sentiment didn’t succeed in extending the previous gains because the traders look careful ahead of the critical week that includes the crucial central bank meeting and the general election in the United Kingdom. Moreover, recent polls of the British December snap election seem to keep the ruling Conservative Party at the top and decrease fears of the united kingdom political trauma.

At the Sino-US front, the United States tariffs of China are ready to happen on December 15, and the Trump administration wants a phase-one to turn the tariff’s switch off. However, China seems not in a mood to respect the U.S. and trade deal, even after supporting agricultural demand. Looking forward, traders may look for trade/political headlines for fresh impulse.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 107.85
  • S2 108.26
  • S1 108.44

Pivot Point 108.68

  • R1 108.85
  • R2 109.1
  • R3 109.51

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The boosted demand for haven assets and weaker U.S. dollar has driven sharp selling in the USD/JPY currency pair this week. For now, the pair is trading above 108.550, which is working as a double bottom support level.

A bearish breakout of this level can trigger selling until 108.250. The USD/JPY has already completed 81% retracement on three hourly charts, and this level can give some support to USD/JPY. Above this, the pair may find resistance around 108.900. Let’s wait for NFP to determine the further trend of USD/JPY. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 06 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for Nonfarm Payroll! 

The British pound extended its gains on expectations that Brexit uncertainty could be cleared when the ruling Conservative Party wins a majority in the December 12 general election. GBP/USD charged 0.4% higher to 1.3157, a fresh 7-month high. EUR/GBP declined 0.2% to 0.8438, which was last seen in May 2017.

The British pound extended its gains on expectations that Brexit uncertainty could be cleared when the ruling Conservative Party wins a majority in the December 12 general election. GBP/USD charged 0.4% higher to 1.3157, a fresh 7-month high. EUR/GBP declined 0.2% to 0.8438, which was last seen in May 2017.

The British pound extended its gains on expectations that Brexit uncertainty could be cleared when the ruling Conservative Party wins a majority in the December 12 general election. GBP/USD charged 0.4% higher to 1.3157, a fresh 7-month high. EUR/GBP declined 0.2% to 0.8438, which was last seen in May 2017.

The U.K. Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders reported that new car registrations declined 1.3% on year in Nov. (-6.7% in Oct.).

The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1104. The eurozone’s third-quarter GDP growth (final reading) posted at 0.2% on quarter (as expected) and 1.2% on year (as expected). Also, the eurozone’s retail sales declined 0.6% on month in Oct. (-0.5% expected) but rose 1.4% on year (+2.2% expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing green and found above the November 21 high of 1.1107 despite the depressed German Factory Orders data. As of writing, the currency pair consolidates in the range of 1.1102 – 1.1110. The 14-day relative strength index is also representing bullish sentiment with an above-50 print.

The EUR/USD currency pair will be unlikely to take the significant declines even if the industrial production figures release below expectations. On the other hand, the positive data from the United States (NFP) may stop supporting the bullish technical setup. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a primary indicator of strength in the manufacturing industry.

Looking forward, the Eurozone’s manufacturing hub Germany release Industrial Production figures for October at 07:00 GMT. The data was expected to show the factory activity increased at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.1% month-on-month in October, but the actual data fell to -1.7%. Evidently, the EUR/USD is trading under pressure since it’s release. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.104
  • S2 1.1068
  • S1 1.1086

Pivot Point 1.1097

  • R1 1.1115
  • R2 1.1126
  • R3 1.1155

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Friday, the traders are waiting for the U.S. Non-farm Payroll and Employment change figures to drive the next movement in the market. 

The EUR/USD has next support is near mid-1.1050 and is strictly followed by the 1.1075 horizontal support mark. Considering the recent crossover on MACD, the pair may trade bullish above the 1.1070 level today. On the upper side, resistance stays around 1.1140 and 1.1170. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the seven-month high and found near the 1.3160 ahead of the United States nonfarm payroll. As of writing, the currency pair consolidates in the range of 1.3153-1.3163. 

The recent polls of the United Kingdom December election maintain the ruling Conservative Party on the top place, Prime Minister Boris Johson seems to be stuck recently as the Tory leaders again reject to take part in ITV and BBC debates.

On the other hand, optimism surrounding the trade deal by the UK Chancellor Sajid Javid and ex-Brexit Party members’ who seem to push to vote Tories seem to play their roles. Moreover, the pairs’ bullish sentiment could also be attributed to the greenback weakness. 

Markets seem inactive and cautious because all eyes stay on the Novembers’ employment data from the United States. As a result, the United States’ ten-year treasury yields, and most of the Asian stocks stay modestly changed. 

Ahead of the U.S. jobs report, U.K. Halifax House Prices will likely entertain the traders. Notably, we expect payrolls to increase by a solid 200k in November, which is higher than the previous month’s 128k release. If this happens, the GBP/USD may face headwind to target the next resistance level of 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3021
  • S2 1.3082
  • S1 1.312

Pivot Point 1.3143

  • R1 1.3181
  • R2 1.3204
  • R3 1.3265

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On the technical side, the prices need to cross May month high near 1.3180 to target 1.3200 and 1.3270 figures to the north, declining to do so highlights Wednesday’s top surrounding 1.3120 as immediate support.

In the daily timeframe, the GBP/USD has an upward crossover on MACD. Lastly, the three white candles on the daily timeframe are suggesting bullish bias among traders. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and dropped from the 108.97 to 108.66 overnight, mainly due to the positive headlines which came from the United States and China trade. This helped the United States stocks to survive further gains. 

As of writing, the currency pair is trading near the 108.70 and consolidates in the range of 108.66-108.78. Recently the risk appetite was healthy, and investors were trading based upon the set of positive news during this week from the United States. Although, without any positive response from China, markets were afraid to take any action ahead.

Before the headlines, there were upbeat tones from the United States President Donald Trump, who said that the United States is having meetings and trade talks with China. Something may happen regarding the December 15 tariff, but we are not discussing currently.

As for U.S. yields, the two-year Treasury yields increased slightly from 1.56% to 1.60%, ten-year yields rose from 1.76 to 1.82%. “Markets are pricing a near to zero chance of rate cut at the Fed’s December 11 meeting but a terminal rate of 1.25%.

Looking forward, the trader will keep their eyes on the coming Nonfarm Payrolls. Nov Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise 185k and report that the unemployment rate is likely to stay at 3.6%. Average hourly earnings are expected to hold at 3.0%, still down from the 3.2% beforehand.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.12
  • S2 108.46
  • S1 108.61

Pivot Point 108.81

  • R1 108.95
  • R2 109.15
  • R3 109.49

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The boosted demand for haven assets and weaker U.S. dollar has driven sharp selling in the USD/JPY currency pair this week. For now, the pair is trading above 108.550, which is working as a double bottom support level.

A bearish breakout of this level can trigger selling until 108.250. The USD/JPY has already completed 81% retracement on three hourly charts, and this level can give some support to USD/JPY. Above this, the pair may find resistance around 108.900. Let’s wait for NFP to determine the further trend of USD/JPY. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 04 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on US ADP Report! 

The market trades risk-off sentiment as the U.S. China trade war continues to play. The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Uighur Act, a bill to condemn the Chinese government for its mass internment of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang. China has denounced the U.S. movement and has warned to take revenge.

The market trades risk-off sentiment as the U.S. China trade war continues to play. The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Uighur Act, a bill to condemn the Chinese government for its mass internment of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang. China has denounced the U.S. movement and has warned to take revenge.

The market trades risk-off sentiment as the U.S. China trade war continues to play. The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Uighur Act, a bill to condemn the Chinese government for its mass internment of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang. China has denounced the U.S. movement and has warned to take revenge.

It should be noted that the intensified political tensions will likely complicate the trade deal matters. As a consequence, the shared currency will likely struggle to pick up secure buying.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing red and representing marginal declines, mainly due to renewed trade tension between the United States and China. As of writing, the currency pair currently trading at 1.1079, having hit a high level of 1.1094 in the overnight trading hours. For now, the breakout may remain elusive if the key U.S. data releases ignore expectations by a big range, which is scheduled to release on the day.

The EUR/USD currency pair surged 0.58% on Monday, confirming its most significant single-day rise since September 17. The sharp rise neutralized the immediate bearish setup but failed to draw stronger buying pressure, leaving the pair below the November 21 high of 1.1097. A close higher is needed to confirm a bullish breakout.

However, that seems complicated due to fading optimism regarding the trade deal between the United States and China. President Donald Trump said that he would likely delay a trade deal with China until after the 2020 presidential election.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Uighur Act, a bill to condemn the Chinese government for its mass internment of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang. China has denounced the U.S. movement and has warned to take revenge.

It should be noted that the intensified political tensions will likely complicate the trade deal matters. As a consequence, the shared currency will likely struggle to pick up strong buying.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0883
  • S2 1.097
  • S1 1.1025

Pivot Point 1.1057

  • R1 1.1112
  • R2 1.1145
  • R3 1.1232

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

With an increased level of uncertainty, the dollar is getting weaker, which is why the EUR/USD is on hold despite entering the overbought zone. At the moment, the pair is holding right below a strong triple top resistance level of 1.1090, having formed a series of bullish and bearish candles. 

Below this level, we can expect a slight retracement in the EUR/USD until 1.1060 and 1.1038. Conversely, the bullish breakout can lead EUR/USD prices towards 1.1120.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the 6-week high and taking rounds to 1.3000 on the day, mainly due to recent polls raid chances of the ruling Conservatives Partys victory in December snap election. As of writing, the cable currency pair is currently trading at 1.2994 and consolidates in the range of 1.2992-1.3004 ahead of key data.

However, the recent polls that showed the reducing lead of the Tories against the opposition Labour Party, the recent survey from the YouGov and Kantar signal increased the popularity of the Converaitce Party. 

At the Sino-US front, the chances of the United States and China phase-one trade deal getting reduce day by day. The United States President recently warned the deal might happen till late-2020 while the U.S. House announced sanctions on the senior Chinese diplomats.

Additionally, the Independent’s news that Hundreds of protesters march to Buckingham Palace over the U.S. President Trump NHS fears might have exerted additional pressure on the trading sentiment. As a result, stocks in Asia and S&P 500 Futures keep in the red zone.

Today, the traders are preparing for the key U.K. Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), anticipated to continue unchanged at 48.6, as well as the U.S. Markit Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Whereas the U.S. Markit data could reprint 51.6 figure, it’s ISM counterpart might decline to 54.5 from 54.7. Moreover, the US ADP Employment Change, forecast 140K against 125K prior, will likely offer additional pressure on market watchers.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2823
  • S2 1.2876
  • S1 1.2908

Pivot Point 1.2929

  • R1 1.2961
  • R2 1.2982
  • R3 1.3035

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading outside of the normal trading range, which was extending resistance around 1.2956. Now the same level is likely to work as a support. Traders may look for bearish retracement below 1.3000 psychological trading levels, but later, buying can be seen above 1.2965.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair came under pressure and hit the multi-day low of 108.65, mainly due to fading optimism of the United States and China trade deal, as in result kept the JPY strong in the wake of risk-off sentiment. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair consolidates in the range between the 108.48 – 108.67.

Looking forward, Japan’s Jibun Bank Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for November, expected 50.4 against 49.7, is likely to offer fresh direction to the pair during initial Tokyo open. However, the trader’s eyes will be on this week’s U.S. employment data and trade war headlines for fresh impulse.

Because of the lack of major catalysts from Japan, Friday’s key monthly jobs report from the U.S. is now getting more attention. As a consequence, today’s ADP Employment Change for November, forecast 140K against 125K earlier, will be closely observed for fresh direction. 

Concerning Friday’s employment numbers, the headlines Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to increase from 128K to 180K, whereas Unemployment Rate and Average Hour Earnings (YoY) will likely remain unchanged at 3.6% and 3.0% respectively.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 107.65
  • S2 108.42
  • S1 108.7

Pivot Point 109.2

  • R1 109.48
  • R2 109.98
  • R3 110.76

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing green and hit the bullish level of 109.19 from the 5-day low despite the broad risk-off sentiment. As of writing, the pair is consolidating in the range between the 108.95 – 109.20.

At the moment, the USD/JPY is trading with a strong bearish bias, and we may see a bullish reversal in USD/JPY somewhere around 108.800 level today. Below this, the pair can go after 108.500 level.

On the technical side, the USD/JPY has shown a dramatic dip until 108.950, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The pair has violated the bullish channel, which was supporting the safe-haven pair around 109.350. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 03 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Dollar Weakens Over ISM Manufacturing PMI 

The global financial markets are trading the weaker dollar sentiment in the wake of worse than expected ISM manufacturing PMI data. On the news, the Euro gained 0.5% to $1.1079, the largest percentage gain since September 17. The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (final reading) for November was released at 46.9 (46.6 expected). Similar PMIs for Germany and France were posted at 44.1 (43.8 expected) and at 51.7 (51.6 expected), respectively. While the Markit U.S. 

The global financial markets are trading the weaker dollar sentiment in the wake of worse than expected ISM manufacturing PMI data. On the news, the Euro gained 0.5% to $1.1079, the largest percentage gain since September 17. The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (final reading) for November was released at 46.9 (46.6 expected). Similar PMIs for Germany and France were posted at 44.1 (43.8 expected) and at 51.7 (51.6 expected), respectively. While the Markit U.S. 

The global financial markets are trading the weaker dollar sentiment in the wake of worse than expected ISM manufacturing PMI data. On the news, the Euro gained 0.5% to $1.1079, the largest percentage gain since September 17. The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (final reading) for November was released at 46.9 (46.6 expected). Similar PMIs for Germany and France were posted at 44.1 (43.8 expected) and at 51.7 (51.6 expected), respectively. While the Markit U.S. 

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) posted a final reading of 52.6 (52.2 expected and in preliminary reading), the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.1 (49.2 expected) from 48.3 in October. Construction spending declined 0.8% on month in October (+0.4% expected, -0.3% in September).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

Economic Calendar by TradingView


 

 EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair climbed 0.58% very sharply during the Monday, representing its most significant single-day upward movement since September 17. As of now, the currency pair is currently trading near the 1.1076. Notably, the outlook will likely shift to the bullish track if the currency pair crosses the November 21 figures high of 1.1097. That would confirm a double bottom breakout on the daily chart and create an opportunity for 1.12.

The breakout could be possible if we look at the dismal of the United States data, which was released on Monday. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index dropped to 48.1% in November from October’s 48.3%, confirming the 4th-straight month of contraction.

At the greenback front, as we know that the U.S. Dollar already shows losses in the wake of the weak data, and the focus will likely shift to the on-going trade tensions; in that case, the breakout will likely remain elusive.

The United States President Donald Trump administration said late Monday it is planning to impose tariffs up to 100% on around $2.4 billion of French goods in return to take revenge on France’s decision to impose a tax on digital services.

Looking forward, the Eurozone producer price index is scheduled to release at 10:00 GMT, and the US ISM-NY Business Conditions Index (Nov) will hit the wires at 14:45 GMT. These data sets rarely have a big impact on the currency markets. Although, the EUR may take hints from a speech by European Central Bank’s (ECB) member Benoir Coeure scheduled at 17:30 GMT.

On the bearish side, the November 29 low of 1.0981 is the level to beat for sellers. At press time, the pair is trading at 1.1075, representing little change on the day.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0883

S2 1.097

S1 1.1025

Pivot Point 1.1057

R1 1.1112

R2 1.1145

R3 1.1232

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD pair concluded the day over 1.1065, the 38.2% retracement level on 4-hour chart. Weaker ISM manufacturing data from the U.S. economy is driving bearish bias for the EUR/USD pair ahead of NFP data, which is due on Friday. 

The EUR/USD has reached the triple top resistance area of 1.1085, which is keeping the Euro on hold below this area. Although the closing of candles below this level is suggesting chances of a bearish bias, the RSI and MACD value is still in the bullish zone. These may drive more buying in the EUR/USD currency pair. In the case of a bullish breakout of 1.1085, the EUR/USD may lead towards a 1.1120 trading level. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and shifted from the recovery track to bearish track mainly due to greenback recovery. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2940. Moreover. The reason behind the cable pairs pullback could also the recent changes in the United Kingdom politics and careful trading ahead of the United States President Trumps London visit for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit.

Tory leader has recently been fired by the opposition or the media, which in turn might have reduced the scope of the Conservatives holding the British rule after the December election.

At the greenback front, the U.S. Dollar was found on the strong bearish track on Monday because the United States President Donald Trump announced a measure that shows the world’s largest economy’s preference for trade protection. Apart from this, the United States and China trade war regarding Hong Kong also leaving pressure on the greenback. Freshly, China announced sanctions over the US Non-Government Organization (NGO).

Looking forward, the United States President Donald Trump will visit London tomorrow for the NATV summit. By the way, traders are not expecting something from this meeting, but the United Kingdoms opposition parties will keep their eyes on the meeting between the United States and United Kingdom leaders to increase their earlier claims that the United Kingdom Prime Minister has plans to sell National Healthcare System to the United States.

On the economic calendar, the final figures of November month U.K. Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will be watched for fresh directions.

Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1.2823

S2 1.2876

S1 1.2908

Pivot Point 1.2929

R1 1.2961

R2 1.2982

R3 1.3035

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The British pound was up for a second session as it edged up 0.1% to $1.2939. The Markit U.K. Manufacturing PMI (final reading) for November came in at 48.9 (48.3 expected). On Tuesday, the GBP/USD is trading with a strong bullish trend as it already has violated the symmetric triangle pattern at $1.2935. 

The symmetric triangle pattern typically breakout on either direction, but the weaker dollar causes a bullish trend in the GBP/USD. For now, the GBP/USD pair may find next resistance around 1.3015 along with immediate support around 1.2970 and 1.2930.  

On the 4-hour timeframe, the RSI and MACD are holding are still signaling bullish bias. Thus, let’s consider taking buying trades above 1.2950 to target 1.3010 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The currency figures marked the highest losses on Monday, mainly due to headlines from the United States flashed challenges to the global trade system. As well as, another reason behind the pairs bearish trend was downbeat data from the United States.

The United States and China phase-1 deal or steel tariff on South American economies, not to forget possible trade negative measures against the European Union, the United States ran the trade show during the Monday.

Moreover, the US ISM manufacturing numbers stayed in the contraction region for the 4th-consecutive month and increased uncertainties on the strength of the world’s largest economy.

At the data front, the market’s risk aversion hit Wall Street on the 1st-trading day of the month while the United States’ ten-year Treasury yields increased by 4-basis points to 1.82%. However, the latest figures seem to change with the S&P 500 Futures be quietly on the positive side with the U.S. government bonds on the waiting mood for fresh directions.

The United States President Donal Trump continues his hate factor for the Federal Reserve monetary policy, as Trump said that the Federal Reserve should lower rate and loosen, making us competitive with other countries, and manufacturing will SOAR. The greenback is very strong as compared to others. Whereas the Federal Reserve policymakers are on the blackout session, negative data from the United States keep decreasing the chances of any monetary policy stabilization due to conflicting comments from the United States President Donald Trump.

Additionally, a repeat of the November news that the Japan government is considering 25 Trillion Japanese yen (JPY) economic stimulus package, as per the NHK, recently crossed the wires while supporting the pair.

Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 107.65

S2 108.42

S1 108.7

Pivot Point 109.2

R1 109.48

R2 109.98

R3 110.76

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing green and hit the bullish level of 109.19 from the 5-day low despite the broad risk-off sentiment. As of writing, the pair is consolidating in the range between the 108.95 – 109.20.

On the technical front, the USD/JPY has shown a dramatic dip until 108.950, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. As we can see in the chart above, the pair has violated the bullish channel, which was supporting the safe-haven pair around 109.350. 

At the moment, the USD/JPY is trading with a strong bearish bias, and we may see a bullish reversal in USD/JPY somewhere around 108.800 level today. Below this, the pair can go after 108.500 level.

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 02 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – ISM Manufacturing PMI In Focus! 

The U.S. Dollar Index rose edged down to 98.27 from 98.33 during the previous week. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1015. Official data showed that November consumer prices in

The U.S. Dollar Index rose edged down to 98.27 from 98.33 during the previous week. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1015. Official data showed that November consumer prices in

The U.S. Dollar Index rose edged down to 98.27 from 98.33 during the previous week. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1015. Official data showed that November consumer prices in the eurozone increased 1.0% on year in November (+0.9% expected), and October jobless rate was at 7.5% (as expected, 7.6% in September). 

The U.S. stocks closed lower while ending November with the most significant monthly gain since June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 112 points (-0.4%) to 28051, the S&P 500 lost 12 points (-0.4%) to 3140, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 39 points (-0.5%) to 8665.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair hit the bearish track and continue to flashing red despite the positive China manufacturing data. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair currently trading near the 1.1018, representing slight declines on the day and consolidates in the range of 1.1015-1.1028.

The Caixin PMI, which surveys the small and medium-sized export-oriented units, increased to 51.8 in November from October’s 51.7 to record the fastest expansion in 3-3-years. While the official PMI released on Saturday also printed well above 50 to mark the first expansion in 13 months.

As in result, the risky assets getting bids due to data. For example, Japan’s Nikkei surged by1% in Asia, and the NZD/USD pair rose to a one-month high. Even so, the EUR currency is struggling.

Looking ahead, the EUR/USD currency pair may take bids if the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s pushes European leaders to boost spending, indirectly hinting low chances of more monetary stimulus in the foreseeable future. Notably, the Lagarde’s testimony is scheduled to happen at 14:00 GMT.

The market’s focus will shift to the U.S. data on the North American session. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov), due at 15:00 GMT, is forecasted to print at 49.4 against 48.3 in October. An above-50 print may put pressure on EUR/USD.

The final German and Eurozone PMI numbers scheduled to release in Europe may not have a big impact, unless they carry a significant upward or downward revisions to the preliminary figures released on November 22.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0915
  • S2 1.0962
  • S1 1.099

Pivot Point 1.1009

  • R1 1.1037
  • R2 1.1056
  • R3 1.1103

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

Traders are strengthening the downside bias amid positive NFP forecast, which is due to release later this week. The EUR/USD disrupted the tight trading range of 1.1016 – 1.0992 to trade near the 1.1020 trading level. 

At the moment, the EUR/USD’s now consolidating in a narrow trading range of 1.1030 – 1.1015. A bullish breakout of 1.1030 can lead the EUR/USD prices towards 1.1055, and on the lower side, 1.0985 endures the final support.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and representing 0.10% losses. As of writing, the cable pair is currently trading at 1.2915 and consolidates in the narrow range between 1.29107 and 1.2918 at the start of the week, mainly due to series of United Kingdom election polls which doing limited to affect a leading Tory sentiment.

The GBP currency was seen stronger in the recent times in the wake of Brexit Party promising not to stand against the Tories in voters where there is a sitting Tory MP, underpinning the probability of a Tory majority after the quick threat of no-deal Brexit.

The investors are now keeping their eyes on the election outcomes. Still, the market will likely hold the risks of talks between the United Kingdom and the European Union, which may cover any quick bullish move in the GBP on a Tory victory.

At the Sino-US front, doubts over the phase-one deal between the United States (U.S.) and China are weighing on the greenback, whereas recently, actual activity data from China adds strength to the risk sentiment.

Looking forward, the market will keep their eyes on the U.S. main event in the U.S. nonfarm payroll jobs report. We expect employees to increase by 200k in November, after the above-consensus 128k October print.

All traders will keep their eyes on the trade and political headlines November month Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from the U.S., and the U.K. will likely offer intermediate moves. Including, U.K. Manufacturing PMI, anticipated 48.3, will be the first to observe ahead of the U.S. Markit and ISM activity indices. 

Estimates suggest the Markit PMI remain unchanged at 52.2, but ISM Manufacturing PMI may rise to 49.9 from 45.5.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2784
  • S2 1.285
  • S1 1.2889

Pivot Point 1.2917

  • R1 1.2955
  • R2 1.2984
  • R3 1.3051

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The cable pair is currently trading at 1.2915 and consolidates in the narrow range between 1.29107 and 1.2918 at the origin of the week, mainly due to series of United Kingdom election polls which doing limited to affect a leading Tory sentiment.

On Friday, the GBP/USD continues to above the suggested support level of 1.2880. The pair has formed neutral candles above this level as traders are waiting for a fundamental reason to get in the market. 

On the 2-hour timeframe, the RSI and MACD are holding near 50 and 0, suggesting neutral bias among investors. Therefore, we may see a slightly bearish trend in the GBP/USD below 1.29400 area until a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2900. Consider staying bullish above 1.2900 today to target 1.2945/65. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the 6-months high 109.70; this is the highest level since May 30, by the way, the safe-haven currency Japanese Yen came under pressure after the upbeat China manufacturing data and uptick in the United States equity index futures.

As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.70, the highest level since May 30, and the S&P 500 futures are reporting a 0.30% rise.

As we all well aware that President Donald Trump signed the Hong Kong Democracy Bill. China criticized the move because interference into its internal matters regarding Hong Kong, China warned to take revenge.

However, China did not take any revenge so far, and that may support the risk assets. Moreover, the data released over the weekend showed China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly increased in November. The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for China’s manufacturing sector inched up to 50.2 in November from 49.3 in October. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

At the greenback front, the U.S. dollar stayed little changed on Monday in Asia after the release of reliable economic data in the U.S. the previous week. The U.S. Dollar Index traded marginally higher early in the day, up 0.03% to 98.20 by 8:41 PM ET (01:40 GMT).

Looking forward, the initial indications of a turnaround in the world’s 2nd-largest economy support further upside in the risk assets and the USD/JPY pair. The Caixin China manufacturing PMI, which focuses on the small and medium-sized export-oriented units, printed above the estimate of 51.5 soon before press time.

Meanwhile, the bullish movement will likely weaken if the focus shifts to the negative news regarding the United States and China trade talks because the report came earlier today that the optimism between the United States and China decreased about the phase-one deal.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.98
  • S2 109.25
  • S1 109.38

Pivot Point 109.53

  • R1 109.65
  • R2 109.8
  • R3 110.07

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is consolidating at 109.425, and it has just begun to trade in the overbought zone as the RSI and MACD are stuck in the overbought territory. On the 4 hour graph, the USD/JPY has created a Doji and Spinning top, which typically implies chances neutral bias in the USD/JPY. On the downside, the USD/JPY may drop towards 38.2% Fibonacci retracement until 109.150. Besides Fibonacci, the bullish channel is also supporting the USD/JPY at the same level. So look for taking a sell trade below 109.700 today to target 109.200 and buying above 109.300 to target 109.700. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 29 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for European Inflation Report! 

The U.S. dollar steadied against most major currencies on Thanksgiving day, with the ICE Dollar Index closing relatively unchanged on the day at 98.32. The euro edged up 0.1% to

The U.S. dollar steadied against most major currencies on Thanksgiving day, with the ICE Dollar Index closing relatively unchanged on the day at 98.32. The euro edged up 0.1% to

The U.S. dollar steadied against most major currencies on Thanksgiving day, with the ICE Dollar Index closing relatively unchanged on the day at 98.32. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1012. Official data showed that the eurozone’s Economic Confidence Index rose to 101.3 in November (101.0 expected) from 100.8 in October. Later today, November CPI (+0.9% on-year expected) and October jobless rate (steady at 7.5% expected) will be reported.

The German Federal Statistical Office will release November jobless rate (steady at 5.0% expected) and October retail sales (+0.2% on month expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair found on the bearish track and representing 1.27 decline on the monthly opening rate of 1.1151. As of writing, the currency pair is trading near 1.10.

The EUR/USD currency pair is moving bearish at the end of November, having surged 2.33% during October. So, that was the most significant monthly increase since January 2018. However, the currency pair has come under pressure, pouring cold water over the optimism generated by October’s 2.3% gain.

On the other hand, Consumer spending, as represented by retail sales, is anticipated to have increased at an annualized rate of 1.1% in October, having increased by 3.4% in the previous month. The retail sales data is scheduled to release at 07:00 GMT.

Meanwhile, the data due at 08:55 GMT is expected to show the economy added 5,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate continued steady at 5%. The Post-German data, the focus would shift to the Eurozone consumer price index and the jobless rate, scheduled for release at 10:00 GMT. 

The EUR currency may come under the selling pressure and hit the bearish track if the German jobs data disappoint expectation. As we know, Germany is already facing bearish pressure from the external sector. If the labor market cools sharply, the consumers will likely shift on the purse saving mood, leading to a deeper economic recession.

On the other side, the EUR/USD currency pair will likely find love if the key data crosses the forecast figures. Notably, the gains could be short-lived due to the United States and China trade tensions. As we all well aware that President Donald Trump signed the Hong Kong Democracy Bill earlier this week, irritating China. That could hurt the trade matters.

Daily Support and Resistance

    

  • S3 1.0958
  • S2 1.098
  • S1 1.099

Pivot Point 1.1002

  • R1 1.1012
  • R2 1.1024
  • R3 1.1046

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR currency outlined a sideways trading pattern, which is signifying neutral bias among traders, and that’s mostly due to the limited volatility ahead of the weekend. However, traders are strengthening the downside bias put forward by the lower high at 1.1097 established on November 21.  

The 14-day relative strength index is proposing bullish bias, but it’s directing lower now as it’s valued may cross below 50. Let’s look for bearish trades below 1.1020 level today to target 1.1099 and 1.0960.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair is consolidating in the narrow range of 1.2910-1.2917. The pair got support from the polls showing continued fame of the ruling Conservative Party. Moreover, probably the reason behind the lack of more strength is the stepping back of the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnsons from certain debates.

After the YouGov’s poll of a clear lead of the ruling Tory Party over the opposition Labour Party, accusations on the United Kingdom Prime Minster raised as he stepped back from the debate on channel4 and is yet to confirm an interview with BBC’s Andrew Neil, as per the Independent. Whereas the opposition leaders have started using rude words and media support the reaction, probably due to this, they will lose their fame ere the December snap election.

The Conservative’s boss was recently criticized by the opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn regarding selling the National Healthcare Systems (NHS) to the United States, citing leaked government papers. The decreasing chances of another strong poll supporting the Troy leadership and the greenback recovery are the major catalyst to drive trading volume in the GBP/USD pair.

So far, the market risk sentiment is still directionless, with the United States’ ten-year Treasury yields taking rounds to 1.77% with Asian equities flashing mixed signals.

Looking ahead, the half-day trading session in the U.S. and shortage of data and events will likely keep the market unactive. However, political and trade headlines will entertain the traders.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2698
  • S2 1.2794
  • S1 1.2857

Pivot Point 1.2891

  • R1 1.2954
  • R2 1.2987
  • R3 1.3083

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

On Friday, the GBP/USD continues to above the suggested support level of 1.2880. The pair has formed neutral candles above this level as traders are waiting for a fundamental reason to get in the market. 

On the 2-hour timeframe, the RSI and MACD are holding near 50 and 0, suggesting neutral bias among investors. Therefore, we may see a slightly bearish trend in the GBP/USD below 1.29400 area until a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2900. Consider staying bullish above 1.2900 today to target 1.2945/65. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

 The USD/JPY currency pair is flashing red and hit the session low near the 109.46, having hit the high of 109.60 three hours ago. As of writing, the currency pair is consolidating in the day’s range of 109.47-109.59.

The USD/JPY currency pair is stepping back, possibly following the slow descent of the S&P 50 futures. The index futures were down 0.10% in early Asia and are currently reporting a 0.26 decline. Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) Governor Kuroda was out on the wires a few minutes before press time asking for structural changes. Kuroda told Parliament that structural reforms must accompany fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to heighten the economy’s long-term growth potential and added that the central bank’s ultra-loose policy is aimed at boosting inflation to 2% and not monetize debt. 

Governor Kuroda’s comments are not surprising because the central bank has little capacity to stimulate, having run an expansionary monetary policy for more than 6-years. 

Looking forward, the Japanese Yen will likely continue to gain ground, because equities may trade risk-averse in the wake of the decision by President Trump to sign the Hong Kong Democracy Bill. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.42
  • S2 108.92
  • S1 109.24

Pivot Point 109.42

  • R1 109.74
  • R2 109.93
  • R3 110.43

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is consolidating at 109.425, and it has just begun to trade in the overbought zone as the RSI and MACD are stuck in the overbought territory. On the 4 hour graph, the USD/JPY has created a Doji and Spinning top, which typically implies chances neutral bias in the USD/JPY.  

On the downside, the USD/JPY may drop towards 38.2% Fibonacci retracement until 109.150. Besides Fibonacci, the bullish channel is also supporting the USD/JPY at the same level. So look for taking a sell trade below 109.700 today to target 109.200 and buying above 109.300 to target 109.700. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 28 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Happy Thanksgiving! 

The U.S. dollar kept trading within a tight range on Wednesday, amid thin trading before the Thanksgiving holiday. The ICE Dollar Index closed broadly flat on the day at 98.31.

The U.S. dollar kept trading within a tight range on Wednesday, amid thin trading before the Thanksgiving holiday. The ICE Dollar Index closed broadly flat on the day at 98.31.

The U.S. dollar kept trading within a tight range on Wednesday, amid thin trading before the Thanksgiving holiday. The ICE Dollar Index closed broadly flat on the day at 98.31.

The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.2930. A U.K. election poll showed that the Conservative would retain a majority of seats in the parliament. The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1005, while USD/JPY gained 0.3% to 109.38. 

The Federal Reserve released the Beige Book, which stated that economic activity expanded modestly, the outlook remains positive, and growth is expected to continue into next year. Besides, theU.S. economic data, third-quarter GDP growth was revised to 2.1% (1.9% expected and previously estimated), and durable goods orders increased 0.6% on month in October (-0.9% estimated).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair consolidates on the uncertain track and may face a hard time defending crucial support until the German inflation data blows past predictions, weakening dovish ECB expectations. Today, the German inflation data is scheduled to release at 13:00 GMT.

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair seems set for a possible break below 1.0994, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 1.0879 to 1.1179.

At the USD front, the greenback got the support mainly due to the 3rd-quarter gross domestic product was updated higher to 2.1% from 1.9%, in the wake of positive consumer spending data. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, soared higher to 2.1% from 1.9% in the 2nd-quarter. The inflation gauge exceeded an expectation of 1.7%.

It must be noted that the upbeat data of the U.S. may push the greenback further high on the day. Traders will be likely to sell dollars over increases uncertainty as President Trump’s decision to sign the Hong Kong Democratic Bill has irritated the Dragon Nation, and fears have increased regarding side effects on the trade deal. This is evident from the 0.25% drop in the S&P 500 futures seen at press time.

Looking forward, the breakdown will likely remain elusive manly if the preliminary German consumer price index for November crosses expectations by a considerable range, creating the opportunity for the European Central Bank head Christine Lagarde to maintain her neutral-to-hawkish stance for some time.

On the flip side, the CPI is anticipated to drop 0.6% month-on-month in November, having increased by 0.1% in October. The EUR/USD currency pair may plan a notable bounce from $1.10 if the inflation figure crosses estimates by a significant margin.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0958
  • S2 1.098
  • S1 1.099

Pivot Point 1.1002

  • R1 1.1012
  • R2 1.1024
  • R3 1.1046

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On the technical side, the EUR currency charted a bearish engulfing candle yesterday, strengthening the downside bias put forward by the lower high at 1.1097 established on November 21. On the technical side, indicating the route of least resistance is to the bearish. The 14-day relative strength index is suggesting selling conditions with as the RSI value holds below 50, and the daily MACD histogram is again printing deeper bars below the zero line, a sign of strengthening bearish momentum. Let’s look for staying bullish above or bearish below 1.1000 level today to target 1.1055 on the upper side and 1.0985 on the lower side. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing green and hit the 4-day high to 1.2920, mainly due to the ruling Tory party, which will keep the helm of the United Kingdom with a vast majority. The YouGov Poll on the MRP model is highly appreciated for its forecasts regarding the United Kingdom’s result since they forecasted a suspended parliament in 2017. 

The poll suggests Conservatives gain 359 seats against the opposition Labour Party’s 211 seat estimate. Apart from this, It also shows that 43% of vote share will be allocated to the ruling Tories against Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour Party’s 32% expected share, which in turn indicates an 11-point lead of the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson led Conservatives over the Labour Party.

On the other hand, the GBP/USD currency pair is found under pressure during the Asian session today. The GBP currency has initially fallen mainly due to expectations that the Tory announcement might leave a negative impact on the ruling party popularity ahead of the December Snap election. But now the GBP/USD is likely to find enough support below at the 1.2900 regions to bounce yet again. 

A report came from the Guardian’s journalist Owen Jones that the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservatives have a significant majority over the Labour Party in the YouGov’s MRP poll.

Looking forward, the traders will just have limited data to trade as the United States enjoys thanksgiving holiday. Therefore, trade and political headlines will keep the market active.


Daily Support and Resistance

    

  • S3 1.2698
  • S2 1.2794
  • S1 1.2857

Pivot Point 1.2891

  • R1 1.2954
  • R2 1.2987
  • R3 1.3083

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

On Thursday, the GBP/USD has hit our previously suggested target level of 1.2880; in fact, it soared further to trade around 1.2940 level. Currently, the pair has entered the overbought zone, as we can see on the 2-hour timeframe, the RSI and MACD are holding near 70 suggesting chances of a bearish correction.

Therefore, we may see a slightly bearish trend in the GBP/USD below 1.29400 area until a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2900. Consider staying bullish above 1.2900 today to target 1.2945/65. 

 USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and dropped by 0.13% to 109.38, mainly due to fears regarding United States President Donald Trump’s decision to sign the Hong Kong bill. It may irritate China and could drop a negative impact on the trade talks. 

As a result, the safe-haven currency Japanese Yen has picked up buying. The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 109.38, representing a 0.13% drop on the day. The pair has dropped more than 20 pips in the last 90 minutes or so. 

The U.S. President Trump signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act in early Asia, reaffirming support for Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests after the majority of the City’s districts turned in favor of pro-democracy candidates with record voter turnout this week.

It must be noted that China has repeatedly warned the U.S. administration not to interfere in their internal affairs. Therefore, President Trump’s move will likely hurt the relationship with China at a time when both sides are trying to reach a “phase one” trade deal.

Looking forward, deeper declines could be in the offing if the Asian and European equities turn risk-averse concerning the latest political developments. 

At the USD front, the greenback found on the buying track during the United States trading hours on Wednesday, mainly due to official data, which showed the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.1% in the 3rd-quarter, driven by strong consumer spending. Notably, the pair hit a 6-month high of 109.61 before dropping on Trump’s decision to sign Hong Kong Democracy bill. 

Daily Support and Resistance

    

  • S3 108.42
  • S2 108.92
  • S1 109.24

Pivot Point 109.42

  • R1 109.74
  • R2 109.93
  • R3 110.43

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 109.425, and it has just entered the overbought zone as the RSI and MACD are stuck in the overbought territory. On the 4 hour chart, the USD/JPY has formed a tweezers top, which typically suggests chances of a bearish bias trend in the USD/JPY. 

On the downside, the USD/JPY may drop towards 38.2% Fibonacci retracement until 109.150. Besides Fibonacci, the bullish channel is also supporting the USD/JPY at the same level. So consider taking a sell trade below 109.500 today to target 109.200. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 22 – Major Trade Setups – Who’s Up for ECB and PMI Data?

The U.S. Dollar Index edged up 0.1% on the day to 97.96, as investors remained prudent over the prospects of a U.S.-China trade deal. The U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned

The U.S. Dollar Index edged up 0.1% on the day to 97.96, as investors remained prudent over the prospects of a U.S.-China trade deal. The U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned

The U.S. Dollar Index edged up 0.1% on the day to 97.96, as investors remained prudent over the prospects of a U.S.-China trade deal. The U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned that China is not stepping up in trade negotiations, while the Wall Street Journal reported that China’s chief trade negotiator Liu He had invited his U.S. counterparts for more talks.

The U.S. Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims amounted to 227,000 for the week ended November 16 (218,000 expected, 227,000 in the prior week). Existing home sales grew to an annualized rate of 5.46 million units in October (5.49 million units expected, 5.36 million units in September).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing green and will likely hit the bearish track if the new European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde sounds dovish in her first policy speech. So, let’s see what will happen.

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair currently trading near 1.1063, showing a 0.12% increase in the trading hours, by the way, the pair hit the high of 1.1097 yesterday. The new European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will be giving her first big policy speech at a banking conference in Frankfurt. She avoided talking regarding the monetary policy during her last November 4 speech in Berlin.

It should be noted that the dovish comments may send the EUR/USD currency pair near the bearish level of 1.10. The EUR currency will likely cancel the next bearish move if the Lagarde sounds hawkish regarding the policy and calls for more effort on the fiscal front.

On the other hand, the recent report came that many board members held against the previous President Draghi’s decision to add further stimulus in September. So, Lagarde has limited opportunities to raise expectations for more stimulus. Moreover, Germany avoided recession in the 3rd-quarter.

According to the forecast, the chance of Lagarde sounding neutral-to-hawkish is high. However, the resulting increases in the EUR will likely to be canceled if the preliminary Eurozone and German PMI, scheduled for release after Lagarde’s speech, disappoint expectations. The final figures for Germany’s 3rd-quarter GDP, recorded at 07:00 GMT.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0981

S2 1.1026

S1 1.1044

Pivot Point 1.107

R1 1.1089

R2 1.1115

R3 1.116

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The currency pair created a bearish hammer candle on Wednesday, indicating the bullish move from its recent lows below 1.10 has run out of steam and sign of an aggressive bearish move. However, a bearish reversal will be confirmed if the EUR/USD pair closes below the candle’s low of 1.1053 (a hammer) on Thursday. Also, a close above 1.1081 would negate the bearish hammer and signal a resumption of the recovery rally.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair found on the bullish track the first time after the starting of the week due to a variation in the market trade sentiment. While the pair is currently taking bids to the 1.2920.

The recent recovery could partially be attributed to the silence before taking a decisive turn in the US-China trade tussle. As per the Reuters, the United States (U.S.) may delay December 15 tariff hikes while the CNBC’s news of China still having U.S. trade negotiators on their invitation list triggered risk recovery. Even so, the U.S. Navy’s claim of “Freedom of Navigation” in the South China Sea was harshly criticized by Beijing.

We may say that the recent recovery in the GBP/USD currency pair inspired by the silence before happening any positive activity in the United States and China trade deal. Moreover, the chances that the United States will likely delay the increased tariff on Chinese goods. In contrast, China invited the United States negotiators, recently trying to restore the sentiment of the market. 

However, uncertainties still surrounding the United States and China trade deal because China now awaits the United States President Donald Trumps to proceed with the Hong Kong bill after congress passed the much-criticized bill.

On the economic calendar, Markit is scheduled to release preliminary readings of the U.K.’s Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) figures, whereas the US PMIs and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also enhance the line.

On the other hand, the month brings the first flash PMIs for the U.K. For the manufacturing PMI, we look for a bit of a pullback to 49.3 (market: 48.8), as election uncertainty weighs on sentiment. Notably, the Chances for Sino-US trade deal and hard possibilities of hard Brexit should support the PMI above its lows from the summer.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.277

S2 1.2847

S1 1.2878

Pivot Point 1.2924

R1 1.2955

R2 1.3001

R3 1.3078

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

On the technical side, bears look for a daily closing below 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 1.2880 to try for monthly low surrounding 1.2770, until then 1.3000 and 1.3015 will stay on buyers’ radars. 

On a shorter timeframe, the GBP/USD is trading with a bullish bias at 1.2930. The bullish trend is mostly triggered due to the Three White Soldiers pattern, which is suggesting a strong buying trend in the GBP/USD pair. On the upper side, the immediate target is likely to be 1.2960. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is sideways near the 108.60 and consolidates in the narrow range of 408.46 and 108.70 because markets want more transparency on the trade deal between the United States and China. 

At the Sino-US front, the chances that the United States will likely delay the increased tariff on the Chinese goods. In contrast, China invited to the United States negotiators, as delivered by the South orning Post and the Wall Street Journal, recently trying to retore the sentiment of the market. However, uncertainties still surrounding the United States and China trade deal because China now awaits the United States President Donald Trumps to proceed with the Hong Kong bill after congress passed the much-criticized bill.

Finally, the greenback drifted a little higher, whereas the United States’ two-year Treasury yields bounced off 1.55% to 1.60%. The ten-year yields rose from 1.71% to 1.78%. Markets are pricing a terminal funds rate of 1.20% (vs. 1.63% currently).

U.S. stocks closed modestly lower with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, DJIA, losing 54.8 points, or 0.2%, to 27,766.29 while the S&P 500 dropped back 4.92 points, or 0.2%, to 3,103.54. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 20.52 points, or 0.2%, to 8,506.21, having closed at its highest levels at the start of the week.

At the Japan front, the Japan October Consumer Price Index was expected to tick up fractionally, to 0.3% YoY overall, 0.6% YoY ex-fresh food & energy. 

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.11

S2 108.35

S1 108.48

Pivot Point 108.59

R1 108.72

R2 108.83

R3 109.07

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.500, just below the bearish trendline, which is extending resistance at 108.700 area. The closing od Doji candle below 108.700 level saying a lot about investors’ sentiment. On the other hand, the MACD and RSI are still holding in the bullish zone. 

Due to different sentiments, we should keep a close eye on 108.550 level today as the USD/JPY can trade bearish below and bullish above this level. On the lower side, the target remains 108.250, while 109 remains the bullish target. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 21 – Major Trade Setups – ECB Ready to Shake the Market

The U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range, closing flat at 97.83. The euro and the British pound were little changed at $1.1079 and $1.2929, respectively. The USD/JPY slipped 0.1% to 108.46. The USD/CAD advanced 0.3% to 1.3307. Official data showed that Canada’s consumer prices grew 1.9% on year in October (as expected).  […]

The U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range, closing flat at 97.83. The euro and the British pound were little changed at $1.1079 and $1.2929, respectively. The USD/JPY slipped 0.1% to 108.46. The USD/CAD advanced 0.3% to 1.3307. Official data showed that Canada’s consumer prices grew 1.9% on year in October (as expected).  […]

The U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range, closing flat at 97.83. The euro and the British pound were little changed at $1.1079 and $1.2929, respectively. The USD/JPY slipped 0.1% to 108.46. The USD/CAD advanced 0.3% to 1.3307. Official data showed that Canada’s consumer prices grew 1.9% on year in October (as expected). 

Later today, existing home sales are expected to post a growth of 2.0% on month to a yearly rate of 5.49 million units in October. The Leading Index is likely to slip by 0.2%. Besides, the U.S. unemployment claims for the week ended November 16 is anticipated to fall to 218,000 from 225,000 in the prior week.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is found on the bearish territory and created a bearish hammer candle ahead of Europan Central Bank minutes. That might anticipate that members stand divided on which course to take, in short, there could be seen the opposite sentiment as compared to earlier.

It should be noted that the market turned into the risk-off in Aisa, in the wake of political and trade uncertainty. The report came that the fair trade deal between the United States and China will likely shift into next year. Moreover, traders are also worried that resumed political tensions between the United States and China will likely damage the global economy and could complicate matters on the trade front.

On the other hand, Beijing warned the United States to do not interfere in this matter. The risk-tone also weighs down amid on-going protests in Hong Kong and Israel. 

At the ECB front, the EUR currency will likely take a buying if the ECB meeting minutes exhibits growing resistance to the massive easing package announced by the former President Draghi in September.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1012

S2 1.1041

S1 1.1057

Pivot Point 1.1069

R1 1.1085

R2 1.1097

R3 1.1126

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The currency pair created a bearish hammer candle on Wednesday, indicating the bullish move from its recent lows below 1.10 has run out of steam and sign of an aggressive bearish move. However, a bearish reversal will be confirmed if the EUR/USD pair closes below the candle’s low of 1.1053 (a hammer) on Thursday. Also, a close above 1.1081 would negate the bearish hammer and signal a resumption of the recovery rally.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair turned to green and taking round near the 1.2930, mainly due challenges to Tories recede. After the ITV debate between the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and the opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn immediate votes challenges to Tories. The latest surveys from the Savanta Comres says that about one in five Labour voters is considering backing the Tories. 

The market has recently stayed under pressure because the United States and China trade dispute escalated, whereas the House of Representatives passed the Hong Kong bill. Risk-tone stays slow with the United States ten-year treasury yield and the Asian stocks both flashing red signals.

Whereas a shortage of significant data/events will likely keep trade/political headlines concerning the U.S. and China in the light, news from the U.K. and 2nd-tier Housing and manufacturing data from the U.S. could offer intermediate progress. 

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.283

S2 1.2872

S1 1.2897

Pivot Point 1.2913

R1 1.2939

R2 1.2955

R3 1.2997

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

On the technical side, bears look for a daily closing below 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 1.2880 to try for monthly low surrounding 1.2770, until then 1.3000 and 1.3015 will stay on buyers’ radars. 

On a shorter timeframe, the GBP/USD is trading with a bullish bias at 1.2930. The bullish trend is mostly triggered due to the Three White Soldiers pattern, which is suggesting a strong buying trend in the GBP/USD pair. On the upper side, the immediate target is likely to be 1.2960. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair increased its moderate recovery from the 50-day Moving Average support manly due to the China Vice Premier and trade negotiator Liu He stated that he is hopeful about reaching a phase-1 trade deal. 

As of now, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 108.49, representing a 0.13% decline on the day, having bounced from the 50-day moving average support of 108.28 in the last one hour.

It must be noted that Liu He is showing optimism on trade, but few traders seem to avoid going long on the JPY trades, helping the pair to show a slight recovery. However, the futures on the S&P 500, are still reporting a 0.22% decline. Moreover, the Asian equities are down with Japan’s Nikkei reporting a 1% drop.

Whereas, the United States’ ten-year treasury yield is also showing no sign of life. The Treasury yield is currently trading at two-week lows near 1.73%.

Basically, the equity and bond market are not looking so impressed by the Premier Liu He’s comments and continue to worry about declining the trade certainty due to intensifying political tension.

Therefore the USD/JPY currency pair will likely fall back to the 50-day average at 108.28. However, if the equities recover, the pair will probably move into the positive region above 108.60.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.78

S2 108.17

S1 108.39

Pivot Point 108.57

R1 108.78

R2 108.96

R3 109.35

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.500, just below the bearish trendline, which is extending resistance at 108.700 area. The closing od Doji candle below 108.700 level saying a lot about investors’ sentiment. On the other hand, the MACD and RSI are still holding in the bullish zone. 

Due to different sentiments, we should keep a close eye on 108.550 level today as the USD/JPY can trade bearish below and bullish above this level. On the lower side, the target remains 108.250, while 109 remains the bullish target. 

All the best!

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 19 – Major Trade Setups – U.S. China Trade War Plays! 

The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.1% on the day to 97.82, extending its decline to a third session. The euro gained 0.2% to $1.1072, and the British pound advanced 0.3%

The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.1% on the day to 97.82, extending its decline to a third session. The euro gained 0.2% to $1.1072, and the British pound advanced 0.3%

The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.1% on the day to 97.82, extending its decline to a third session. The euro gained 0.2% to $1.1072, and the British pound advanced 0.3% to $1.2947. The USD/JPY slipped 0.1% to 108.67.

After Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell met with President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to discuss the economy, the Fed released a statement saying Powell’s comments were consistent with his remarks at his congressional hearings last week.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair overall flashing green and consolidates in the narrow range of 1.1063 – 1.1076 due to renewed trade tensions leaving the selling pressure on the greenback. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair rose by 0.10% at 1.1060 and hit a high level of 1.1076.

As we all well aware that the pair extended its bullish trend for the 3rd session in a row, extending its recovery trend from the recent 5-weeks lows of 1.0990/85 range, mainly due to the selling pressure in the greenback and some fresh trade tensions.

At the Sino-US trade front, the Chinese legislators showed some attention during the earlier session regarding the singing of the Phase one deal after the United States President Donald Trump announced to ruled out the rollover of some tariffs. In the consequences, due to these concerns, the U.S. Treasury yields turned into lower and some resurgence cities in the safe-havens, weakening further the greenback sentiment.

According to the schedule, the ECBs C.Lagarde is scheduled to deliver the speech in Frankurt later in the week, whereas the investors should keep their eyes on the ECB minutes and the preliminary figures of November PMIs in core Euroland as well.

It should b noted that the pair is increasing the recovery from the last week lows in sub-1.10 range, mainly due to the renewed weakness of U.S. Dollar and hopes of the United States a China fair trade deal. 

On the other hand, the outlook in the Euroland continues weak and does nothing but justify the failure for the more extended monetary policy by the European Central Bank and the bearish outlook on the single currency in the medium term, at least. So, from this point of view, all eyes will be on the publication of flash PMIs figures for the current month later in the week.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1

S2 1.1036

S1 1.1054

Pivot Point 1.1072

R1 1.109

R2 1.1108

R3 1.1144

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD displayed bullish behavior to examine the resistance mark of 1.1090. Today extension of buying biases can direct the EUR/USD prices towards 1.1125 areas. While support lingers around the 1.1065 area.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair trading on the bullish track and takes buying to 1.2950 in the wake of fresh hints of political stability, and the successful Brexit keeps the cable pairs strong. As of writing, the pairs consolidate in the range of 1.2944 – 1.2967 dring the Asian session.

The GBP/USD currency pairs recently got the support from the Brexit party decrease of candidates, whereas also avoiding the Bank of England’s dovish bias.

Apart from the continued support for the tory leadership during the December election, as defined by the major surveys, the recent decision regarding the ban of liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party form the T.V.’s cross-party political discussion also speaks louder for the Conservative’s position in the United Kingdom.

Challenges are surrounding Prime Minister Boris Johnson avoid to release documents regarding Russian interference in the Brexit election stop to cuts the British locals, including Tories, highly criticize corporate tax. Moreover, the European Union stable on the decision does not change the Brexit deal gains less of market attention.

Whereas, the trade and political headlines regarding the United States and China and ITVs debate will likely keep the entertaining investors of markets, as well as, all eyes will be on the November month CBI Industrial Trends Survey data from the U.K., the U.S. Building Permits, Housing Starts and speech from the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John C. Williams.

Markets are looking for CBI industrial orders to increase from October’s multi-year low of -37 to -30 during November. We think that risks lie toward a more significant gain because the October survey hopefully didn’t capture the improvement in sentiment because Brexit success chances were increased.

The market expects housing starts to have rebounded to 1,320k in October, reflecting a firm 5.1% m/m jump. This would follow a notable -9.4% tumble in September, which was primarily driven by a sharp -28.2% m/m contraction in the volatile multifamily segment,” says T.D. Securities.

Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1.2826

S2 1.289

S1 1.2922

Pivot Point 1.2954

R1 1.2986

R2 1.3018

R3 1.3081

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is consolidating with a bullish bias, and it surged to test resistance mark around 1.2970 level. The GBP/USD pair is now facing a double top resistance level at 1.2975 on the 4-hour chart. Typically, the pair becomes bearish below the double top. Therefore, the GBP/USD may exhibit bearish retracement unto 1.2925 ere driving the bullish trend to 1.2975. 

The MACD and RSI are staying in the bearish zone, suggesting chances of bearish trading in the GBP/USD trading today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidates in the narrow range between the 108.60 and 108.70 so far. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading near the 108.60.

The USD/JPY currency pair has been capped due to markets presuming a soft dollar policy from the United States administration, whereas trade discussions between the United States and China are on the close track, but the tension still surrounding the market.

The USD/JPY currency pair dropped from 109.05 in early N.Y. to just above 108.50. As for United States treasury yields, the United States’ two-year yields have been on the buying from 1.60% to 1.63% before dropping back to 1.59% due to the US-China trade doubt. The 10-year yields also dropped from 1.85% to 1.80%. 

On the technical side, the USD/JPY pair now tries to re-test 50% Fibonacci retracement of April-August drops at 108.40. However, a confluence of 50 and 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 108.30/25 will be the key to limit the pair’s further bearish sentiment. The Japanese Trade Minister was on the wires last minutes, also telling the need for an extra budget of around JPY 10 trillion.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.63

S2 108.19

S1 108.44

Pivot Point 108.75

R1 109

R2 109.32

R3 109.88

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.60, completing 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 108.550. For now, this level also works a double bottom support level as the USD/JPY prices are pushing higher. 

On the uppers side, the USD/JPY may find resistance at 108.700, and bullish breakout of this level can extend buying until 108.900 level today. Consider taking sell positions below 108.900 to target 108.500 today. 

All the best!

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 15 – Major Trade Setups – Core Retail Sales In Focus! 

The US greenback has stretched back a little versus the Japanese yen, as risk-off sentiment dominated the market. That being said, this market is highly sensitive to risk appetite, so

The US greenback has stretched back a little versus the Japanese yen, as risk-off sentiment dominated the market. That being said, this market is highly sensitive to risk appetite, so

The US greenback has stretched back a little versus the Japanese yen, as risk-off sentiment dominated the market. That being said, this market is highly sensitive to risk appetite, so with the multitude of problems that the global economy has right now/ Friday is a calm day ahead of the data aspect. There are no economic figures due from the United Kingdom to give the Sterling with direction.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

 

   

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

A day before, the EUR/USD currency pair traded on the bearish track as on the way a stable support level of 1.0990 was there to stop its movement. As we know, the German Q3 GDP showed the Eurozone’s largest member miss entering Techincal slowdown but overall look still darker. 

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair seen on the bearish track and losing almost 160 ticks during the last ten trading session. At the starting of the month, we observed the 200-day Moving Average as a robust range for the EUR/USD pair to hit, which it proved, and any support from the 50 and 20-day Moving Average proved short-lived.

As of now, the EUR/USD currency pair continues to move lower with the 1.1000. The EUR/USD currency pair on the overselling track, but this may well slow down and not change its direction. A double at the 1.0879, while these targets remain near and achievable. 

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0936

S2 1.0974

S1 1.0998

Pivot Point 1.1013

R1 1.1037

R2 1.1052

R3 1.109

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD continues to trade lower, maintaining a bearish bias after violating the support level of 1.1000. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has inside down candlestick pattern, which is signaling chances of further sell-off in the market. 

For the moment, the EUR/USD is holding above a crucial trading level of 1.0990 as below this; the pair can continue falling until 1.0960. So consider staying bearish below 1.0990 level today.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair sideways and taking round to 12840 mainly due to optimism surrounding the United Kingdom political plays face the greenback strength ahead of the United Kingdom Retail Sales Data for October. 

Friday is a calm day ahead of the data aspect. There are no economic figures due from the United Kingdom to give the Sterling with direction. The shortage of fundamentals leaves the Pound firmly in support of UK politics and the general voting opinion polls. At the moment, the Pound was down by 0.02% to $1.2879.

The GBP/USD was range-bound since Monday, in what has been a dull week, but the Cable showed a dramatic surge to 1.2880 level. The pair is still finding support around 1.2870, and below this, the GBP/USD can drop until 1.2860 level. On the higher side, we see resistance at 1.2925, which is defending the symbolic level of 1.3000.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2767

S2 1.2806

S1 1.2829

Pivot Point 1.2845

R1 1.2868

R2 1.2884

R3 1.2923

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD has come out of a broad trading range of 1.2970 – 1.2780 to trade at 1.2870 level. The MACD and RSI are holding in an overbought zone as their values stay at 0 and 50, respectively. With this, the odds of bearish correction are becoming very strong. 

At the time, the GBP/USD trades at 1.2880 level, and it may find support immediate support around 1.2870. I will consider taking buying positions above 1.2875 and bearish positions if this level breaks on the lower side. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The US greenback has dropped a bit versus the Japanese yen, tearing through the 200 day EMA but has a vital sum of support just below as well. I think we maintain the very slovenly trading, as markets have multiple concerns to trade with at the same time.

The US greenback has stretched back a little versus the Japanese yen, as risk-off sentiment dominated the market. That being said, this market is highly sensitive to risk appetite, so with the multitude of problems that the global economy has right now, it’s not difficult to imagine a situation where the Japanese yen remains to be a market that traders jump in and out of.

The latest update on the global macro figures is presenting a not so definite hint of the pernicious influence the protracted US-China trade war is becoming on the global economy.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.87

S2 108.37

S1 108.57

Pivot Point 108.86

R1 109.06

R2 109.36

R3 109.85

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.50, right below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This level also marks double bottom support and may keep the USD/JPY pair supported today.

The violation of the 108.500 level can extend selling until 108.200. The MACD and RSI are also supporting the bearish trend in the USD/JPY pair. 

All the best!>

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 14 – Major Trade Setups – German Prelim GDP In Focus! 

On Thursday, the safe-haven demand remains high as the trader’s eyes stay on the United States and China trade news to observe the impact on the riks sentiment, which continues

On Thursday, the safe-haven demand remains high as the trader’s eyes stay on the United States and China trade news to observe the impact on the riks sentiment, which continues

On Thursday, the safe-haven demand remains high as the trader’s eyes stay on the United States and China trade news to observe the impact on the riks sentiment, which continues to play an impactable role in the USD/JPY currency par prices. The market will closely be observing the US producer Prices Index an Unemployment Claims data, which is scheduled to release ahead of day 2 of Powell’s testimony.

At the Hong Kong front, the Hong Kong civil unrest and violence take the worst turn for the 4th-straight day on Thursday, after the police reported that a man dressed in black and aged in his 30s died.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

   

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair currently trading near the level of 1.1006 on the day. Even after the pair spot staying below 200-bar Simple Moving Average, the EUR/USD currency pair bounces off 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its October month upward. 

However, the buyers will likely wait for a bullish break of 200-bar moving Average at 1.1058 now, followed by 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and late-October lows surrounding 1.1065/75, to target 1.1100 marks.

On the positive side, if the GDP positive release, the pair may attempt recovery of 1.1040 and 1.156, the confluence zone of the 50 and 10-DMA. Buyers will likely try for the test of the 100-day Moving Average at 1.1100 on a continues break above the last. 

On the technical side, the pairs Techincal st up continues to favor the buyers because the EUR/USD pair still on the track to test the immediate support of mid-October lows near the 1.0991. While the break bellow will likely escalate selling pressure, because of the buyer’s eyes 1.0950 as the next support, the more bearish trend in pairs could hit the multi-year lows of 1.0879 over again.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0958

S2 1.0983

S1 1.0996

Pivot Point 1.1008

R1 1.1021

R2 1.1033

R3 1.1058

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD continues to trade lower, maintaining a bearish bias after violating the support level of 1.1000. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has inside down candlestick pattern, which is signaling chances of further sell-off in the market. 

For the moment, the EUR/USD is holding below a crucial trading level of 1.1000 as below this; the pair can continue falling until 1.0960. So consider staying bearish below 1.1000 level today.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair sideways and taking round to 12840 mainly due to optimism surrounding the United Kingdom political plays face the greenback strength ahead of the United Kingdom Retail Sales Data for October.

Brexit party leader Nigel Farage’s denial of the Conservative’s request of standing down more than 317 candidates, earlier promised, will likely negatively affect the British Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s popularity. The United Kingdom’s (UK) PM Boris Johnson was recently hackled during a speech to the flood-affected area. Whereas, surveys regarding the December election keep showing Tories holding power.

Looking forward to October, UK Retail Sales could boost the GBP/USD demand if it hit the upbeat predictions. However, the market’s rush to risk-safety can increase the USD gains if the Fed Chair support upside momentum during his Testimony 2.0.

Overview of UK Retail Sales, the UK retail sales, scheduled to be released later this session at 0930 GMT, is forecasted to come in at 0.2% MoM in October, after no increase seen in September. Total retail sales are seen coming at 3.7% over the year in the reported month, up from 3.1% booked previously.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2767

S2 1.2806

S1 1.2829

Pivot Point 1.2845

R1 1.2868

R2 1.2884

R3 1.2923

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is consolidating in the broad trading range of 1.2970 – 1.2780, while if we narrow it down, it becomes 1.2870 – 1.2785. The MACD and RSI have passed above 0 and 50, sequentially, indicating the probabilities of a downward movement in the GBP/USD. 

At the moment, the GBP/USD trades at 1.2835 level, and it may find support around 1.2785. I will consider taking buying positions above 1.2845 and selling below the same level today. 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair failed to hit the recovery track from thee 6-days lows of 108.65 and still stands near the range of 108.80 area, mainly due to on-going trade uncertainty between the United States and China. On the other hand, the pairs didn’t get any impact by the Japans Q3 GDP because of the renewed Sino-US trade war.

The Japanese Preliminary Q3 GDP rate slightly increased even less-than-expected across the time limit. However, the Japanese yen currency gave little attention to the sluggish figure releases. The Japanese yen continued getting support from the risk-off sentiment in Wall Street’s futures and global equities mainly after the United States and China trade tension again escalated during the overnight trading hours.

Trader’s eyes stay on the United States and China trade news to observe the impact on the riks sentiment, which continues to play an impactable role in the USD/JPY currency par prices. The market will closely be observing the US producer Prices Index an Unemployment Claims data, which is scheduled to release ahead of day 2 of Powell’s testimony.

At the Hong Kong front, the Hong Kong civil unrest and violence take the worst turn for the 4th-straight day on Thursday, after the police reported that a man dressed in black and aged in his 30s died.

Despite the Hong Kong confusion and renewed US-China trade tensions, the market mood looks to be developing over the last, with S&P 500 futures having flashed green as well as the Japanese stocks. This has helped put a minor buying under USD/JPY that is now trading in session highs near the 108.85 regions.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.87

S2 108.37

S1 108.57

Pivot Point 108.86

R1 109.06

R2 109.36

R3 109.85

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.70, right above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This level also marks double bottom support and may keep the USD/JPY pair supported today.

The violation of the 108.700 level can extend selling until 108.500, the 61.8% Fibo level today. The MACD and RSI are also supporting the bearish trend in the USD/JPY pair. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 13 – Major Trade Setups – Fed Chair Speech In Focus! 

On Wednesday, the global financial markets await the Fed Chair speech along with the CPI (Consumer Price Index) data from the U.K and the U.S. The United States and China

On Wednesday, the global financial markets await the Fed Chair speech along with the CPI (Consumer Price Index) data from the U.K and the U.S. The United States and China

On Wednesday, the global financial markets await the Fed Chair speech along with the CPI (Consumer Price Index) data from the U.K and the U.S. The United States and China trade front, the trade concerns between the United States and China are getting severe, with the Trump administration warned to increase the tariff but not until the deal gets confirmation.

We look for CPI to decline from 1.8% y/y in September to 1.5% in October (mkt 1.6%), in line with the BoE’s forecast from November. Let’s take a more in-depth look at the technical side of the market. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair found on the high range of 1.10 handle, as of now, the pair consolidate in the narrow range around the 1.10 handle because tye buyers await for the key inflation report and Federal Reserve Chair Powells statement for the next move.

As of writing, the currency pair is found slightly supported from the pause in the greenback strength after the United States President Trump’s latest comments failed to offer any detail on the United States and China trade agreement and due to this partial trade deal’s uncertainty increased. The U.S. Dollar index trades flat near the 98.30, consolidating the increase to a 4-week high of 98.42.

On the technical side, the 5-Moving Average barrier at 1.1025 is could to reduce the recovery attempts, whereas the bearish sees the next support around the 1.0950 level. The sub-1.1000 levels could be tested on a likely increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is scheduled to release at 1330 GMT.

Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1.0944

S2 1.0981

S1 1.0995

Pivot Point 1.1017

R1 1.1031

R2 1.1053

R3 1.1089

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with a slightly bullish bias since it violated the resistance level of 1.1025. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has formed a bullish engulfing candle, which is signaling chances of further buying in the market. 

For the moment, the EUR/USD is concentrating on a critical trading level of 1.1060, which is probable to hold the EUR/USD bearish below this mark. Below this level, the EUR/USD may gain support at 1.1025 and 1.1000 level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair found near the 1.2850, notably the lack of significant impetus from the United Kingdom, has recently limited the cable pairs movement, as well as the market traders on the waiting track ahead of the critical data and events. 

After the mixed figures of the British employment details, the GBP/USD currency pair saw another pressure on the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Jonhson to release a report regarding the Russian interference in the 2016 Brexit referendum. 

On the United States and China trade front, the trade concerns between the United States and China are getting severe, with the Trump administration warned to increase the tariff but not until the deal gets confirmation.

We look for CPI to decline from 1.8% y/y in September to 1.5% in October (mkt 1.6%), in line with the BoE’s forecast from November MPR. The complete deceleration in inflation is due to energy prices; household energy prices will be affected by the OFGEM cap, while fuel prices may decline a bit on a y/y basis. Stripping out the volatility, we’re looking for core CPI to hold steady at 1.7% y/y (Mkt 1.7%).

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2728

S2 1.2787

S1 1.2816

Pivot Point 1.2845

R1 1.2875

R2 1.2904

R3 1.2962

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD appears to have broken the bearish trendline resistance of 1.2825 upon the release of optimistic GDP figures. The MACD and RSI have crossed above 0 and 50, respectively, implying the odds of a bullish bias in the GBP/USD. The Cable may find immediate support at 1.2845 level. But the closing of candles above 1.2845 area suggests a strong chance of buying trend continuation. 

Consider taking buying positions above 1.2845 and selling below the same level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair still consolidates in the bearish range of 109 handles, and traders are found on the waiting track even after the latest updates regarding Hong Kong protests and the United States and China trade deal.

Whereas the intensifying uncertainty between the United States and China trade deal as well as the protest unrest in Hong Kong, keep leaving bearish pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair, the overall hawkish sentiment at the Federal Reserve limits the bearish off-late.

Officials from the United States, including President Donald Trump and White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow, just show a willingness to raise the tariff on the Chinese goods if the round-1 talks fail. Moreover, the political also did clear that the existing tariff could reduce but not until the deal gets confirmation.

Market traders are now planning for the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powells statement in front of the Joint Economic Committee, and traders will closely follow Fed speak, whereas the market is also waiting for the October month Consumer Prices Index.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.33

S2 108.7

S1 108.86

Pivot Point 109.07

R1 109.23

R2 109.44

R3 109.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair is forming higher’s high and higher’s low pattern on the 4-hour chart, which suggesting bullish bias among traders. The USD/JPY has immediate support at 108.900 and resistance at 109.400. 

The MACD is forming histograms in the bearish zone, but the recent histogram is likely to develop above 0, and it may drive more buying until 109.450 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 12 – Major Trade Setups – Trump’s Speech Ahead! 

The buck slipped along with the global stock, which plunged on Monday following the U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments during the weekend tore investor confidence that Washington and Beijing would

The buck slipped along with the global stock, which plunged on Monday following the U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments during the weekend tore investor confidence that Washington and Beijing would

The buck slipped along with the global stock, which plunged on Monday following the U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments during the weekend tore investor confidence that Washington and Beijing would immediately reach an agreement to settle their debilitating trade war.

At the Sino-US trade front, the United States and China trade tension flashing continuously, whereas the United States interference in the Hong Kong protests awaits China’s response fro fresh risk-off. The market’s risk-tone continues slowly, with the United States ten-year treasury yields being around 1.92%, with most Asian stocks flashing mixed signals. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range of 1.1030 and 1.1050 due to the greenback continues its recovery rally. As of writing, the pair mostly trades near the 1.10 range during on the day, because of USD strength. As we all well aware, the uncertainty surrounding the United States and China trade deal and Hong Kong’s civil protest worries resurged the demand for safety, so that’s why the market was favoring the U.S. currency.

Whereas, on the EUR-side of the equation, the uncertain result of the Spanish general election combined with Eurozone economic growth worries continues to remain a bearish impact on the common currency.

Markets now traders keenly await the German macro news and some new transparency on the US-China trade front for fresh trading impulse, whereas Trump’s speech scheduled today at 1700 GMT will likely also direct the next moves in the spot.

Daily Support and Resistance  

S3 1.0953

S2 1.0992

S1 1.1006

Pivot Point 1.1031

R1 1.1045

R2 1.107

R3 1.1108

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with a slightly bullish bias since it violated the resistance level of 1.1025. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has formed a bullish engulfing candle, which is signaling chances of further buying in the market. 

For the moment, the EUR/USD is concentrating on a critical trading level of 1.1060, which is probable to hold the EUR/USD bearish below this mark. Below this level, the EUR/USD may gain support at 1.1025 and 1.1000 level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair got limited benefits from the United Kingdoms’ optimism because the pairs await fresh hints from the monthly employment figures whereas taking the buying to 1.2865. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair currently trading at 1.2865.

At the Sino-US trade front, the United States and China trade tension flashing continuously, whereas the United States interference in the Hong Kong protests awaits China’s response fro fresh risk-off. The market’s risk-tone continues slowly, with the United States ten-year treasury yields being around 1.92%, with most Asian stocks flashing mixed signals. 

There will likely be a moderate weakness in Claimant Count estimates amid no change in Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. After the data, the speech from the United States President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve speech will be closely followed to decide the future of the United States and China trade relations and the U.S. Federal Reserve futures moves, respectively.

Daily Support and Resistance   

S3 1.2676

S2 1.2732

S1 1.2754

Pivot Point 1.2789

R1 1.281

R2 1.2845

R3 1.2901

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD appears to have broken the bearish trendline resistance of 1.2825 upon the release of optimistic GDP figures. The MACD and RSI have crossed above 0 and 50, respectively, implying the odds of a bullish bias in the GBP/USD. 

On the lower side, the GBP/USD may find immediate support at 1.2845 level. But the closing of candles above 1.2845 area suggests strong chance of buying trend continuation. 

Consider taking buying positions above 1.2845 and selling below the same level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair found on the bullish track and taking buying near the 109.20 on the day, despite the trade tension between the United States and China, and protest in Hong Kong. The greenback strength could be the reason behind the pair’s bullish trend. Notably, the recovery of U.S. bond trading, greenback sent higher.

However, investors broadly avoided the United States’ expectations regarding the tariff roll back from the European Union automobiles and positive comments from the Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura as well.

Whereas the traders will keep their eyes on trade and Hong Kong worries, as well as the United States President Donald Trump comments from the Economic Club of New York, lunch will also keep under the eyes. The United States President is broadly expected to clarify the much needed United States and China trade relations and the U.S. tariff policy.

Looking forward, Focus will be on Trump’s speech and speeches by the Federal Reserve officials, which is scheduled to speak later on Friday, in the absence of relevant macro data out of the U.S. President is scheduled to speak at the Economic Club of New York around 1700 GMT.

Daily Support and Resistance   

S3 108.48

S2 108.88

S1 109.08

Pivot Point 109.28

R1 109.47

R2 109.68

R3 110.07

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the 4 hour chart, the USD/JPY pair is forming higher’s high and higher’s low pattern, which suggesting bullish bias among traders. The USD/JPY has immediate support at 108.900 and resistance at 109.400. 

The MACD is forming histograms in the bearish zone, but the recent histogram is likely to develop above 0, and it may drive more buying until 109.450 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 11 – Major Trade Setups – U.S. China Trade War In Play!

The U.S. dollar was marginally softer against the single currency euro and safe-haven currency Japanese yen, following some traders caution that the agreement could still unravel. The dollar index traded

The U.S. dollar was marginally softer against the single currency euro and safe-haven currency Japanese yen, following some traders caution that the agreement could still unravel. The dollar index traded

The U.S. dollar was marginally softer against the single currency euro and safe-haven currency Japanese yen, following some traders caution that the agreement could still unravel. The dollar index traded at $1.1020 versus the shared currency euro and 109.23 against the Japanese yen. 

Whereas the Chinese yuan was marginally lower in the offshore business, but still on the strong opponent of 7-per-dollar at 6.9892 in foreign trade. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair stops its further declining streak after a 5-day losing trend. As of writing, the pair is currently trading above the 1.1000, having hit the 3-weeks low of 1.1017 last Friday. Notably, the EUR/USD pair remains cautious, mainly due to the greenback strength.

As of now, the pair is fluctuating up and down between a 10-pips narrow range during the Monday. The markets await fresh clues regarding the United States and China trade relations for a new direction, as well as the big economic releases from both sides of Atlantic the week ahead for the next direction. The United States docket discusses the releases of the CPI data and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s testimony, whereas the EUR calendar headlines the Eurozone growth figures.

Looking ahead, the pair could keep its range trade steady mainly due to the holiday in the United States, the markets of the United States closed in the wake of Veterans Day. However, the greenback will continue its progress due to fresh trade-related development.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0953

S2 1.0992

S1 1.1006

Pivot Point 1.1031

R1 1.1045

R2 1.107

R3 1.1108

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is consolidating with a bearish bias since it broke the bullish trendline support around the 1.1025 area. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair has formed strong bearish channels, which are signaling chances of further selling in the market. 

At the moment, the EUR/USD is focusing on a crucial trading level of 1.1060 level, which is likely to keep the EUR/USD bearish under this. Below this level, the EUR/USD may gain support at 1.1025 and 1.1000 level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the 3-week low mainly due to Moodys cut the United Kingdom outlook unfavorable. By the way, the pair stop its further bearish movement because of UK GDP. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair currently trading around 1.2793.

The U.S. Dollar continues its recovery rally due to the global investors try safety and cautious in the wake of intensifying uncertainty surrounding the United States and China trade deal and protests in Honk Kong. Moreover, the reason behind the greenback safe-haven demand could be the geopolitical tension in the Middle East.

On the other hand, Chancellor’s defeat to justify the criticism of the opposition Labour party’s spending plan increased the uncertainties regarding the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Jonson’s lead during the snap elections, which is scheduled to happen in December.

As of data, the UK GDP is expected to increase to +0.3% from -0.2% on QoQ; the YoY figures might decrease to 1.1% from 1.3%. Moreover, Manufacturing Production could shrink -0.2% against -0.7% prior, whereas Industrial Production could increase to -0.1% from -0.6%.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2676

S2 1.2732

S1 1.2754

Pivot Point 1.2789

R1 1.281

R2 1.2845

R3 1.2901

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD seems to have violated the sideways channel following the Bank of England policy decision. The MACD and RSI have crossed below 0 and 50, respectively, suggesting the chances of a bearish trend in the GBP/USD. On the downside, the GBP/USD has closed one of the candles below 1.2785 area, which suggests strong chances of a bearish trend continuation. 

Next support prevails around 1.2750, and the violation of this level can extend sell-off until 1.2685. 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair remained on the bullish track and got the additional boost and reached near the multi-month high mainly due to Japan Machinery Orders declined below the expected figures. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair currently trading at 109.20 on the day.

Japan’s September month Machinery Orders against market forecasts on MoM and YoY basis. Whereas the monthly numbers dropped below +0.9% expected and -2.4% before -2.9%, yearly numbers seem a bit less negative with +5.1% growth figures against 7.9% consensus and -14.5% earlier readouts.

While looking at the lack of the United States traders from markets, mainly due to the Veterans Day holiday, along with the recent data, US investors have no key event and statistics for publishing on the economic calendar.

Notably, the lowest inflation figures from the United States and the Federal Chairs’ testimony may also force the traders to keep away from the big position before the event.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.48

S2 108.88

S1 109.08

Pivot Point 109.28

R1 109.47

R2 109.68

R3 110.07

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the technical side, the USD/JPY currency pair had shown the wrong direction to the buyers of the market during the last 48 hours as you know the pair dropped in 48 hours against the buyer’s expectations. The pair closed above the 200-day M.A. on Monday to fall back below the long-term M.A. in the overnight trade. Consider staying bearish below

109.100 today to target 108.850 and 108.700. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily November 07– Major Trade Setups – Brace for BOE Rate Decision! 

On Thursday, the dollar’s determined and blending strength will last well into next year, and even if an incomplete U.S.-China trade agreement is signed, it will at most hit the

On Thursday, the dollar’s determined and blending strength will last well into next year, and even if an incomplete U.S.-China trade agreement is signed, it will at most hit the

On Thursday, the dollar’s determined and blending strength will last well into next year, and even if an incomplete U.S.-China trade agreement is signed, it will at most hit the currency by 1-2% in the instant aftermath. 

Today, the focus of traders stays on the series of services PMI figures from the Eurozone. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing red and dropped for 3-consecutive days, this bearish trend considered as the biggest losing streak since early September. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair closed at 0.10% bearish during the Wednesday, as well as the pair was dropped by 0.33% and 0.48% during the Monday and Tuesday. The 3-day declining streak is the highest early September. 

At the time of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1059, showing a 0.06% decline on the day. On the technical side, the technical outlook found on the bearish track with Wednesday close below 1.1073, which confirmed a double top bearish breakdown on the daily chart.

The possibility of Industrial production missing forecasts is high. That would support the bearish technical trend, probably increase the losses in the EUR. It should be noted that the upbeat expectation will likely a good sign of EUR currency. However, the strong close above 1.1073 is much needed to cancel the bearish trend.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1018

S2 1.1047

S1 1.1056

Pivot Point 1.1075

R1 1.1084

R2 1.1103

R3 1.1131

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias since it violated the bullish trendline support around 1.1125 area. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair has formed strong bearish channels, which are signaling chances of further selling in the market. 

At the moment, the EUR/USD is focusing on a crucial trading level of 1.1060 level, which is likely to determine the further direction of the pair. Below this level, the EUR/USD may gain support at 1.1040 and 1.1010 level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair hit the bearish track and hit the weekly low as the cautious sentiment of the GBP traders due to Super Thursday. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair currently trading at 1.2837, as well as the greenback is increasing across the board and uncertainty regarding the trade deal between Sino-US also leaving an impact on the EUR/USD currency pair.

At the Sino-US trade front, the condition surrounding the round-1 trade deal between the United States and China seems doubtful recently. Although, thee U.S. Dollar supported from the move as new thinkings of the Federal Reserves pause in the rate cut cycle.

On the other hand, the investors will strictly be observed to the speech of UK Chancellor Sajid Javid and second-tier data from the U.S., coupled with comments by the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan which is scheduled to deliver later. 

Today, the whole focus stays on the Bank of England monetary policy report, where the BOE is widely supposed to keep the interest rate on the clutch at 0.75% today.  

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2758

S2 1.2812

S1 1.2832

Pivot Point 1.2865

R1 1.2886

R2 1.2918

R3 1.2971

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD hasn’t improved enough as it extends to trade sideways ahead of the Bank of England policy decision. The MACD and RSI have crossed below 0 and 50, respectively, suggesting the chances of a bearish trend in the GBP/USD. But the thing is, investors are staying out of the market ahead of BOE rate. On the downside, the GBP/USD may see next support around 1.2786, and the violation of this level can extend sell-off until 1.2690. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair are representing losses by 24-pips and currently trading at 108.74. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is on the bearish attitude due to the moderate declines in the U.S. index futures. Notably, the futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are reporting 0.12% and 0.17% losses; respectively, the uncertainty increased again between the United States and China trade deal.

While the United States ten-year treasury yields stop previous drops around 1.815% whereas the NIKKEI opens a tad lower after weak signals.

Whereas, the pairs traders cautious after the Tankan number & trade news. Tankan manufacturing poll, which tracks the steps of Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) essential Tankan quarterly survey, recently fell to the lowest since March 2013 during October.

At the Sino-US trade front, the condition surrounding the round-1 trade deal between the United States and China seems doubtful recently.

Looking ahead, the traders will keep their focus on the United States, and China round-1 phase, and Brexit details for getting fresh hints and clues as well as the trader will carefully observe the 2nd-tier data on the economic calendar. The greenback hit a bullish trend in the wake of the ISM beat. 

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.34

S2 108.66

S1 108.82

Pivot Point 108.98

R1 109.14

R2 109.3

R3 109.62

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the technical side, the USD/JPY currency pair had shown the wrong direction to the buyers of the market during the last 48 hours as you know the pair dropped in 48 hours against the buyer’s expectations. The pair closed above the 200-day M.A. on Tuesday to fall back below the long-term M.A. in the overnight trade. Consider staying bullish above 

108.700 today.

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 06– Major Trade Setups – European Data In Focus! 

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index is mostly unchanged, trading at 97.936 in early Asian trade, following a surge of 0.37% the previous day. The headlines came that the United

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index is mostly unchanged, trading at 97.936 in early Asian trade, following a surge of 0.37% the previous day. The headlines came that the United

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index is mostly unchanged, trading at 97.936 in early Asian trade, following a surge of 0.37% the previous day. The headlines came that the United States and China are still on the doubtfull track and so far from reaching even a phase one deal, whereas increasing uncertainty in the trade is China’s intact support for Hong Kong’s hard stand against protestors.

Today, the focus of traders stays on the series of services PMI figures from the Eurozone. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair found on the bearish track for the last two days. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1073; the neckline supports double top pattern on the daily chart.

The German data is scheduled to release at 06:00 GMT and expected to show factory orders, a vital impulse for Europe’s largest economy, which dropped for the 3rd consecutive month during September.

Moreover, IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Germany dropped to 41.7 during September to register the weakest figures since 2009 and 8-straight monthly drop in output. The PMI was at 43.5 in August. A number below 50 indicates contraction.

As we all well aware, the EUR/USD currency pair is already trading on the slippery ground and having charted a bearish trend over the last two days. Therefore, the unexpected weaker factory orders data could allow a possible break below 1.1073.

On the positive note, the EUR currency will likely take buying if the critical data will release better than expected. However, the technical outlook would become bullish above 1.1180.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0939

S2 1.1016

S1 1.1045

Pivot Point 1.1093

R1 1.1122

R2 1.1169

R3 1.1246

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The direct currency pair EUR/USD exhibited a dramatic selling from 1.1120 to 1.1065 area. Today this level is likely to extend support to the EUR/USD pair. New candles are Doji, which are followed by a strong bearish candle. This suggests that sellers are exhausted, and we may see buying behavior in the market. Consider taking buying positions above 1.1065 today.  

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the bearish track despite increasing hopes for the Tory leader to win the snap election. Notably, probably the reason behind the bearish trend of cable pair is uncertainty surrounding the United States, and China trade deal keeps the U.S. Dollar strength intact. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair currently trading at 1.2880 on the day.

The headlines came that the United States and China are still on the doubtfull track and so far from reaching even a phase one deal, whereas increasing uncertainty in the trade is China’s intact support for Hong Kong’s hard stand against protestors.

As of data, the preliminary figures of the United States Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labour Coast for the 3rd quarter will be under the focus after the JOLTS Job Openings Challenged the U.S. employment optimism on Tuesday.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.277

S2 1.2828

S1 1.2856

Pivot Point 1.2887

R1 1.2915

R2 1.2946

R3 1.3004

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD hasn’t changed much so far as it continues to trade bullish due to the weaker U.S. dollar. The Cable has outraged the previous resistance level of 1.2930. Now the pair is likely to face fresh resistance around 1.3050 area. Consider staying bullish above 1.2941 today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY Currency Pair currently trading at 109.04; the pairs hit the low of 109.00 despite the weak macro data. During the Tokyo session, the USD/JPY currency pair was trading near the 109.13 even after the BOJ minutes keeping easy money policy on the cards.

The final Jibun Bank Japan Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is seen at 49.7 in October from 52.8 in September on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The below-50 figures are the first since September 2016.

Despite the weak data approved by the Bank of Japan easing policy, the pair found at 109.20 and has slipped back to near 109.00, mainly due to the drop in the S&P 500 futures. As of writing, the index futures are representing the 0.15% decline.

Moreover, the USD/JPY currency pair may continue taking hints from the movement in the equities and Treasury yields. As of now, the ten-year yield is trading at 1.84%, representing two-basis-points declines from the session high of 1.86%.

Looking forward, traders will keep their eyes on Japan’s Jibun Bank Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for October. In contrast, few other Federal Reserve policymakers will carefully observe for additional direction during the latter part of the day. Market estimates suggest a soft PMI figure of 50.3 against 52.8 prior.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.05

S2 108.55

S1 108.85

Pivot Point 109.05

R1 109.35

R2 109.55

R3 110.05

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY traded bullish, placing a high around 109.200 level. As per the recent technical analysis of the pair, the USD/JPY is facing resistance around 109.20. Below this level, we can expect a continuation of the selling trend until 108.900 and 108.650.

Besides, the MACD and Stochastics are holding in the overbought range, suggesting chances of a bearish trend in the USD/JPY. Consider taking sell positions below 109 today as the immediate target stays at 108.650. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 05– Major Trade Setups – Services PMI Figures In Highlights! 

During the Asian session, the economic event well-occupied as it included October Service sector PMI figures coming out from China and Retail Sales Monitor figures from the United Kingdom. 

On

During the Asian session, the economic event well-occupied as it included October Service sector PMI figures coming out from China and Retail Sales Monitor figures from the United Kingdom. 

On

During the Asian session, the economic event well-occupied as it included October Service sector PMI figures coming out from China and Retail Sales Monitor figures from the United Kingdom. 

On the flip side, the Reserve Bank of Australia also released its November interest rate verdict and rate statement. The RBA decided to keep the policy unchanged today.  

On the geopolitical uncertainty aspect, chatter on trade contributed backing for riskier investments in the first section of the day. The focus today stays on the series of economic events from the U.S. and New Zealand. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

Economic Calendar by TradingView

   

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair still flashing red for the 3rd consecutive day and dropped to 1.2880 on the day. Apart from trade positive headlines, recent uncertainty is taking place, surrounding the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s victory in the snap election, which is scheduled to happen in December.

Besides that, not only the trade-positive comments from the United States and Chinese officials but the United States administration plan to remove some tariff on Chinese goods looks to support the existing risk-on sentiment. Everything boosts the chances of an incomplete trade deal between the United States and China.

A Labour-party member as the speaker of House of Commons and questions on the Prime Ministers’ performance in the report of Russia interference in British politics looks to hint additional difficulty for the United Kingdom citizen.

However, the British traders will keep their eyes on October month figures of services Purchasing Managers Index from the United Kingdom, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, second-tier jobs data, and trade balance will enhance the economic calendar of United States.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2769

S2 1.2835

S1 1.2858

Pivot Point 1.29

R1 1.2924

R2 1.2965

R3 1.303

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD hasn’t changed much so far as it continues to trade bullish due to the weaker U.S. dollar. The Cable has outraged the previous resistance level of 1.2930. Now the pair is likely to face fresh resistance around 1.3050 area. Consider staying bullish above 1.2941 today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing green and representing 0.17% gains on the day mainly due to positive news came regarding trade. Notably, the pair is currently hit the session highs above 108.77. Whereas the recovery in the pair came from Friday’s lows of 107.89 is bright.

Japanese traders enjoy the heightening chances of the Successful trade deal between the United States and China after a holiday. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair takes buying to 108.75.

Besides, it’s not only the trade war-related positive comments from the United States and Chinese officials, but the United States administration plan to remove some tariff on Chinese goods looks to support the existing risk-on sentiment.

As a result, the United States’ ten-year Treasury yields continue the previous run-up to 1.8%, whereas Japan’s NIKKEI climbed 1.5% high at the start of Tuesday trading.

There is another reason behind the pair’s bullish trend, and that’s the support of greenback from the market. It came after the Fridays more than expected Nonfarm Payrolls that ward off Mondays’ adverse Factory Orders. Moreover, the U.S. dollar strong buying could be the new comments from the San Francisco Feds Mary C Daly, who declined the scope of the recession.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.62

S2 108.05

S1 108.33

Pivot Point 108.49

R1 108.76

R2 108.92

R3 109.35

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade bearish with the selling bias due to weakness in the U.S. dollar. The USD/JPY pair broke the bullish channel, which was holding the USD/JPY at 108.800 zones.

Three Black Crows candlestick patterns are suggesting chances of additional selling in the USD/JPY until 107.450 today. On the upper side, resistance is likely to stay at 108.350. Consider taking bearish trades under 108.350 today.  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair found on the bearish outside day candlestick pattern even after the positive news came regarding the United States and China trade progress and seen the risk-on sentiment in the financial markets.

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair dropped from 1.1175 to 1.1125 during the Monday and consolidating between the highs and lows. Notably, the bearish outside day candlestick pattern is broadly considered as a sign of a coming bearish reversal.

If the EUR/USD currency pair closes below the level of 1.1125 in today’s trading hour so then the trend reversal would be confirmed. By the way, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1124, having hit the low of 1.1113 a few minutes ago.

The German economy badly damaged mainly due to the United States and China trade war, sending the Eurozone’s manufacturing powerhouse on the edge of the slowdown. So, the heightened chances of the United States and China makes a trade deal are supportive headlines for Eurozpn and Germany.

The market bought greenback during the Monday and will likely continue to buy more today, possibly due to the decrease of trade tensions that provides the Federal Reserve more opportunity to pause the rate cut series.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1033

S2 1.1087

S1 1.1105

Pivot Point 1.114

R1 1.1158

R2 1.1194

R3 1.1247

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has struck below the double top resistance point of 1.1175 and has lately closed series of neutral candles, which are suggesting chances of a bearish bias until the 1.1175 level gets violated. The pair still stays in the buying zone as the MACD, and RSI value is holding above 0 and 50, respectively. Consider staying bullish above 1.1153 to 1.1180 and 1.1220 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 04– Major Trade Setups – Stronger NFP Supports Dollar!

The Dollar Index slipped 0.2% on the day to 97.12 on Friday, down for a fifth straight session. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1167 while the British pound was

The Dollar Index slipped 0.2% on the day to 97.12 on Friday, down for a fifth straight session. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1167 while the British pound was

The Dollar Index slipped 0.2% on the day to 97.12 on Friday, down for a fifth straight session. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1167 while the British pound was little changed at $1.2935. The Markit U.K. Manufacturing PMI bounced to 49.6 in October (48.2 expected) from 48.3 in September.

USD/JPY rebounded 0.2% from a three-week low to 108.19. USD/CAD fell 0.2% to 1.3136. The Markit Canada Manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.2 in October from 51.0 in September.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

  

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing green and found on the recovery track mainly due to increasing optimism regarding the post-December election. As of writing, the cable pair currently trading at 1.2940.

At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair was traded at 1.2937, up 0.03%, because traders await new ECB head Christine Lagarde’s first official speech, which is scheduled to happen later in the day.

Be it YouGov, Ipsos or Deltapoll suggest a clear lead of the Boris Johnson over the main opposition Labour Party regarding the general election on December 12. However, the United Kingdom Prime Minster Boris Johnson still looks doubtful due to Times mentions that the PM Boris Johnson will remove all fear regarding the no-Brexit deal from the Conservative party manifesto.

Moreover, the announcement came from the U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross during the Sunday that the licenses for the American firm to perform business with the blacklisted Chinese Huawei companies will be given very soon. Apart from this, he said that the United States and China already very delayed with phase one of the trade deal, so the agreement will likely be signed very soon.

As we know, there was a little movement in the risk-on market, possibly due to President Donald Trump did not attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Thailand.

Moreover, the market sentiment has been unstable since the start due to the lack of primary data, and the event and Japan market closed as well.

Looking forward, all investors will keep their eyes on the trade and Brexit headlines whereas also keeping the focus on Markit Construction Purchasing Managers Index from the United Kingdom and the United States Facote Orders for September. 

Market consensus supports an upbeat print of 44.00 against 43.3 from the British PMI, whereas also expecting the U.S. statistics to decrease further to -0.3% from -0.1% previous.



Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1.2855

S2 1.2901

S1 1.292

Pivot Point 1.2946

R1 1.2966

R2 1.2992

R3 1.3037

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD hasn’t changed much so far as it continues to trade bullish due to the weaker U.S. dollar. The Cable has outraged the previous resistance level of 1.2930. Now the pair is likely to face fresh resistance around 1.3050 area. Consider staying bullish above 1.2941 today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidates in the narrow range near the 108.22, and the pair failed to reach on the bullish track of 100-day EMA as the global risk headlines were entirely in the market for the weekend.

However, the USD/JPY currency pair recently got support from the United States, and China trades positive news because the United States President Donald Trump recently hinted that the round-one of a trade deal would be signed in this month near the U.S. 

Moreover, the announcement came from the U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross during the Sunday that the licenses for the American firm to perform business with the blacklisted Chinese Huawei companies will be given very soon. Apart from this, he said that the United States and China already very delayed with phase one of the trade deal, so the agreement will likely be signed very soon.

While the United States’ ten-year treasury yield recently declined to multi-weeks lows mainly due to the United States Federal Reserve Bank, Indonesia and Central Bank of Brazil recently announced the 3rd consecutive rate cut in their benchmark rates.

Such as the markets of japan close today due to culture holiday so that investors will keep their focus on the risk catalysts like the United States and China trade-headlines and political plays regarding the Brexit for fresh impulse.

Notably, the risk tone in the market could keep recent recovery mainly due to the positive sentiment regarding trade deal between the United States and China and also due to receding political uncertainty regarding Brexit. However, any negative activity or headlines could be taken very seriously regarding the market’s uncertainty.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 107.33

S2 107.74

S1 107.96

Pivot Point 108.14

R1 108.37

R2 108.55

R3 108.96

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade bearish with the selling bias due to weakness in the U.S. dollar. The USD/JPY pair broke the bullish channel, which was holding the USD/JPY at 108.800 zones.

Three Black Crows candlestick patterns are suggesting chances of additional selling in the USD/JPY until 107.450 today. On the upper side, resistance is likely to stay at 108.350. Consider taking bearish trades under 108.350 today.  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing green and presently trading at 1.1170, in the wake of the United States and China trade patch-up certainty. Moreover, the EUR/USD pair could take more buying trends, mainly due to confidence surrounding the United States and China.

Whereas, the Shared currency hit the low of 1.1128 during the United States trading session on Friday due to U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls beats forecasted numbers. No Doubt, the decline was short-lived, and the EUR/USD currency pair closed on the bullish track near 1.1165.

So, the EUR/USD currency pair least resistance level is on the bullish range. Whereas, the pair’s bullish sentiment could be increased due to the United States and China trade optimism and the resulting risk-on in the equities. 

An announcement came from the U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross during the Sunday that the licenses for the American firm to perform business with the blacklisted Chinese Huawei companies will be given very soon. Apart from this, he said that the United States and China already very delayed with phase one of the trade deal, so the agreement will likely be signed very soon.

It should be noted that the Eurozone’s manufacturing powerhouse has got a big hit in the wake of the Sino-US trade war. Therefore, trade certainty between the United States and China could support the German economy and the EUR currency.

As of data, the final Manfutring PMI figures are scheduled to release across the EurozoneEurozone. Moreover, the Eurozone’s Sentix Investor Confidence for November is expected to release at 09:30 GMT, may leave any impact on the currency pair. Across the pond, the ISM-NY Business Conditions Index (Oct) and Factory Orders (Sep) data are scheduled for release. 



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1067

S2 1.1111

S1 1.1138

Pivot Point 1.1155

R1 1.1182

R2 1.1199

R3 1.1243

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has struck below the double top resistance point of 1.1175 and has lately closed series of neutral candles, which are suggesting chances of a bearish bias until the 1.1175 level gets violated. The pair still stays in the buying zone as the MACD, and RSI value is holding above 0 and 50, respectively. Consider staying bullish above 1.1153 to 1.1180 and 1.1220 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 01– Major Trade Setups – Trader Awaits NFP Figures! 

The U.S. dollar weakened further Thursday, amid uncertainties over a long-term U.S.-China trade deal and impeachment inquiry into President Trump. The ICE Dollar Index slid 0.2% on the day to

The U.S. dollar weakened further Thursday, amid uncertainties over a long-term U.S.-China trade deal and impeachment inquiry into President Trump. The ICE Dollar Index slid 0.2% on the day to

The U.S. dollar weakened further Thursday, amid uncertainties over a long-term U.S.-China trade deal and impeachment inquiry into President Trump. The ICE Dollar Index slid 0.2% on the day to 97.30, posting a four-day decline.

The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1157. Official data showed that the eurozone third-quarter GDP grew 1.1% on the year, and CPI rose 0.7% on year in October, both were in-line with estimates.

The British pound advanced 0.3% to $1.2938. Later today, the Markit U.K. Manufacturing PMI for October will be released (48.2 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing green and consolidates near the recent gains to 1.2930 by the press time. Notably, the GBP/USD currency pair currently awaits the early-month data from the United States and the United Kingdom to extend the recent bullish moves beyond 8th-day tops.

As we all well aware that these days confirmed to be most damaging for the U.S. Dollar against the bucket of currencies, therefore the traders of U.S. Dollar await for fresh clues.

The main reasons behind the greenback weakness are a rate cut, which is delivered by the Federal Reserve for the 3rd time back to back during this year, and apart from this, the rising uncertainty between the United States and China trade matter and china joined mixed data from the United States.

At the GBP front, the British got support from the increasing possibilities of the United Kingdoms present Prime Minster Boris Johnson to continue to his post after the snap elections during the December. Also, there were strong expectations regarding the pair’s bullish trend as the United Kingdom Prime MInster Boris Johson has strong relations with the United States and can be trusted for good trade relations in the future.

At the data front, all eyes will be on October month Market Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) from the U.K. and employment stats, ISM Manufacturing PM. We look for the manufacturing PMI to increase from 48.3 to 48.9 during October, supported by inventory building ahead of the (at the time of the survey) Brexit deadline of October 31. 

Regarding the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), “U.S. Oct non-farm payrolls are anticipated to increase by 85,000 with the General Motors strike and decrease in census workers both a drag on headline employment increases. The jobless rate is seen to edge back up to 3.6% from a 50 year low 3.5%, and average hourly earnings growth is anticipated to stabilize at 3.0%yr after Sep’s sudden fall to 2.9%yr from 3.2%yr during August.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2821

S2 1.2881

S1 1.2906

Pivot Point 1.2941

R1 1.2966

R2 1.3001

R3 1.3062

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD hasn’t changed much so far as it continues to trade bullish due to the weaker U.S. dollar. The Cable has outraged the previous resistance level of 1.2930. Now the pair is likely to face fresh resistance around 1.3050 area. Consider staying bullish above 1.2941 today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and dropped from the high of 108.90 and just below the 200-day Moving Average, mainly due to report regarding trader war. Thus, investors were cautious and uncomfortable in the wake of news in which China said that we still open to continue trade talks after the first phase.

Notably, the benchmarks on Wall Street were stepped back from its highs due to the report that stated that Chinese legislators are spreading uncertainties regarding the matter of making a comprehensive long-term trade deal with the United States, even as both sides are close to reached on the trade deal.

Overall, the United States’ two-year treasury yields subsequently dropped from 1.62% to 1.52%, whereas the ten-year yield fell from 1.78% to 1.68%. After yesterday’s Federal Reserve interest rate cut and statement, markets were pricing in a Federal Reserve rate of 1.50% at the December conference and a terminal rate of 1.15% against 1.63% currently.



Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 106.63

S2 107.43

S1 107.73

Pivot Point 108.23

R1 108.52

R2 109.02

R3 109.82

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues to trade bearish with the selling bias due to weakness in the U.S. dollar. The USD/JPY pair broke the bullish channel, which was holding the USD/JPY at 108.800 zones.

Three Black Crows candlestick patterns are suggesting chances of additional selling in the USD/JPY until 107.450 today. On the upper side, resistance is likely to stay at 108.350. Consider taking bearish trades under 108.350 today.  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

EUR/USD pair overall sentiment is bullish. But as for now, the EUR/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range near the 1.1170 after the post-EMU data releases in the Euroland.

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair bullish trend is still strong and well sound, mainly after the advanced inflation figures in the Euroland. Also, headline consumer prices are anticipated to increase at an annualized 0.7% from 0.8% while Core prices are also rose somewhat to 1.1% from 1.0.

Moreover, the flash GDP numbers observe the economy in the bloc expanding 1.1% every year from 1.2% during the July and September month 

Whereas, the consecutive weakness in the U.S. dollar still support the EUR/USD currency pair while resumed trade concerns raised recently due to the Chinese officials remain doubtful on the long term trade deal with the United States.

On the technical side, the EUR/USD currency pair is rose by 0.19% at 1.1171 and faced the high resistance barrier at 1.1179 (monthly high Oct.21) seconded by 1.1186 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally) and finally 1.1197 (200-day SMA). At the bearish front, the breakdown of 1.1072 (low Oct.25) would target 1.1042 (55-day SMA) en route to 1.0925 (low Sep.3).

Such as, the EUR currency has succeeded in recovering the bullish monthly range, mainly due to the continued selling pressure in the Greenback.

On the other hand, the chances that the German economy may move into recession in Q3 remains an obvious risk for the outlook and is expected to send EUR currency down for the short and medium-term range.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1064

S2 1.1109

S1 1.113

Pivot Point 1.1153

R1 1.1175

R2 1.1197

R3 1.1242

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has struck below the double top resistance point of 1.1175 and has lately closed series of neutral candles, which are suggesting chances of a bearish bias until the 1.1175 level gets violated. The pair still stays in the buying zone as the MACD, and RSI value is holding above 0 and 50, respectively. Consider staying bullish above 1.1153 to 1.1180 and 1.1220 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 31– Major Trade Setups – Fed Cuts Rates, GPD Figures In Highlight! 

The U.S. dollar softened Wednesday, as the Fed expectedly lowered interest rates. The ICE Dollar Index was down 0.2% on the day to 97.45. The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1152.

The U.S. dollar softened Wednesday, as the Fed expectedly lowered interest rates. The ICE Dollar Index was down 0.2% on the day to 97.45. The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1152.

The U.S. dollar softened Wednesday, as the Fed expectedly lowered interest rates. The ICE Dollar Index was down 0.2% on the day to 97.45. The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1152. Official data showed that French GDP grew 1.3% on year in the third quarter (as expected and +1.4% in the second quarter). Later today, the eurozone third-quarter GDP will be reported (+1.1% on-year expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing green and trading near the 1.2930 due to decreeing the uncertainty surrounding the British politics and Federal Reserve rate cut.

One of the main reasons behind the GBP/USD pair revery is Europen Unions 3-month Brexit extension, as well as increasing chances of the December snap election and public support to the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johson looks to support the cable pair recently. 

At the trade front, the uncertainty surrounding the United States and China trade deal, in the wake of no fixed meeting place, joins the U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s said that China’s ruling Communist Party (CCP) took benefits from the U.S. goodwill. All traders look to ignore the recent support from the United States side to China.

Whereas, the Chinas Commerce Ministry shares more direction regarding trade discussion, which will happen through the telephone call between the official, and made sure that no change will be coming in the plan for talks.

It should be noted that the risk sentiment has been slow, and also the U.S. ten-year Treasury yields fell to 1.80%, whereas Asian stocks supported by the Feral Reserve rate cut.

Looking forward, the markets will ready for Friday’s employment headlines data from the United States, as well as all focus will keep on trade and Brexit headlines and 2nd-tier statistics on the economic calendar.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2758

S2 1.2822

S1 1.2862

Pivot Point 1.2885

R1 1.2926

R2 1.2949

R3 1.3013

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is trading bullish in the wake of a weaker dollar. The pair faced triple bottom support at 1.2780 level, which triggered a bullish trend in the GBP/USD. On the upperside, the Cable may hit the first target at 1.2960, and the bullish breakout of this level can drive more buying until 1.3000 today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair found on the multi-day low nearby 108.65 despite the Bank of Japan announces that no monetary policy change. The Bank of Japan faced the broad expectations of the market, whereas the holding short-term interest rate target at -0.10% with a 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield target around zero. However, the Japanese central bank gave more transparency in its fresh direction through the 3rd-quarter Outlook Report.

As a result, the greenback and Treasury yields surged but then turned back during the Powell press conference. The United States’ two-year Treasury yields surged six-basis points to 1.67% before sliding back to 1.60%, -4 basis points for the day. Finally, the USD/JPY currency pair rose to 109.29 – as being a 3-month bullish before going back to 108.85, unchanged on the day. 

At the data front, the United States Q3 GDP slipped from 2.0% to 1.9% annualized but was above expectations of 1.6%, supported by a stronger consumer. In y/y terms Q3 19 against Q3 18, growth slipped to 2.0% from 2.3%. Personal consumption increased by 2.9%, crossed the estimate of 2.6%, with particularly strong personal durable goods purchases of 5.4%. Core PCE inflation rose to a 2.2% pace from 1.9%, as expected. The ADP private payrolls survey rose 125k in Oct (vs. est. 110k), but the previous reading was revised down from 135k to 93k.

On the other hand, the risk market has been slow overnight due to the uncertainty surrounding the United States and China trade deal. In the wake of no fixed meeting place, joins the U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s said that China’s ruling Communist Party (CCP) took benefits from the U.S. goodwill. All traders look to ignore the recent support from the United States side to China. Traders want to decrease the uncertainty regarding Brexit.

Looking forward, the markets will ready for Friday’s employment headlines data from the United States, as well as all focus will keep on the Nonfarm Payrolls, while trade and Brexit headlines and 2nd-tier statistics on the economic calendar will continue under the trader’s eyes.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.82

S2 108.39

S1 108.63

Pivot Point 108.96

R1 109.19

R2 109.53

R3 110.09

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading sharply bearish amid weakness in the U.S. dollar over interest rate cut decision. The USD/JPY pair violated the bullish channel, which was supporting the USD/JPY at 108.800 area. 

Bearish engulfing candles are still suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY until 108.450 today. On the upper side, resistance is likely to stay at 108.750. Consider taking selling trades below 108.750 today.  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD Currency Pair hit the bullish track and surged sharply from the 20-day Moving Average at 1.1075, increasing more than 50-basis-points. The pair crossed the level 1.1130 and found on the six-day high at 1.1149. So, the EUR/USD currency pair currently stands on the bullish tone, mainly after the FOCM meeting.

After the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the U.S. Dollar surged across the boards, sending the EUR/USD currency pair toward the 1.1070and 1.1080 range. As expected, the central bank rate cut the key interest rate but signaled a pause ahead. 

During Powell’s speech, the U.S. Dollar lost the strength and then rose sharply, mainly due to when Chairman mentioned there would not be a rate hike until there is a significant move up in inflation. Whereas, Chairman’s comment pushed higher the equity princes in Wall Street and sent the greenback to fresh lows across the board.

As of now, the EUR/USD Currency Pair remains to increase into 4th-day during the Thursday, in the wake of Greenback weakness, mainly due to the latest United States Federal Reserve rate cut continues to keep the bearish sentiment around the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.

As we all well aware that the Federal Reserve delivered a rate cut by the 25-basis-points during the last trading hours; however, they indicated a pause in the future easing. Moreover, the traders continue to worry because of the impact of the rate cut on the economy and about Uncetanitny between the United States and China trade progress.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0981

S2 1.1055

S1 1.1104

Pivot Point 1.1129

R1 1.1178

R2 1.1203

R3 1.1277

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has reached under the double top resistance level of 1.1175 and has recently closed the Doji candle, which is suggesting chances of a bearish bias in the pair. The pair is oversold as the MACD, and RSI value stays in the bullish zone. Consider staying bearish below 1.1175 to target 1.1120 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 30– Major Trade Setups – Monetary Policy Decisions Ahead! 

The U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range on Tuesday, closing down 0.1% to 97.69, as investors await the Fed’s interest rates decision.

The euro gained 0.1% to

The U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range on Tuesday, closing down 0.1% to 97.69, as investors await the Fed’s interest rates decision.

The euro gained 0.1% to

The U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range on Tuesday, closing down 0.1% to 97.69, as investors await the Fed’s interest rates decision.

The euro gained 0.1% to $1.1112, while the British pound was flat at $1.2866. The U.K. Parliament finally supported Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plan for an early election, which would be held on December 12.

USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 108.88.

Meanwhile, USD/CAD advanced 0.3% to 1.3092 amid weakness in oil prices. On the other hand, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 1.75% unchanged later today.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range near the 1.2865 despite the United Kingdom parliament approving the extension for the December snap elections. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair s currently trading at 1.2863 and has spent a large part of the last 12 hours chipping away at the resistance of the bull flag on the 4-hour chart.

As we all well aware that the market is cautious not only because of key events but the shortage of fresh hints, so in the consequences, the GBP/USD pair is stuck in the tight range during the Asian trading hours.

During the Tuesday, the United Kingdom parliament approved the law for the first December snap eclection since 1932. The bill will likely become law on the weekend.

On the other hand, the breakout could remain difficult or fail mainly if the Federal Reserve delivers the rate cut by the 25 basis-points and give a hint to pause rate cut series, pushing the U.S. Treasury yields and the greenback higher across the board. It should also b noted that the market has already priced in the 25-basis-points easing.

Apart from the Federal Reserve decision, the GBP/USD currency pair could take hints from the U.S. Q3 preliminary GDP and the monthly ADP jobs data.

On the technical side, while 1.3000 and the fresh high near 1.3015 could keep the pair’s near-term upside limited, a bearish break of 1.2800 could take rest on the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 1.2715 ahead of revisiting September high surrounding 1.2580.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2661

S2 1.276

S1 1.2813

Pivot Point 1.2859

R1 1.2911

R2 1.2958

R3 1.3056

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is still trading the same range, mostly trading bullish above 1.2830 range. On Wednesday, the GBP/USD proceeds to trade bullish above 1.2830 major trading levels. 

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has formed Doji patterns, which is weighing on the bullish trend, but the MACD and RSI are proposing bullish preference. Consider taking buying positions over 1.2859 and bearish under the same level ahead of FOMC and Fed rate decision.

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 108.974 after placing a high of 109.037 and a low of 108.657. The overall movement for the pair remained Bullish that day. At 4:50 GMT, the Services Producer Price Index (SPPI) from the Bank of Japan was released and remained the same for the year at 0.5%. 

At 17:30 GMT, the International Goods Trade Balance of the United States for September came in as -70.4B against the expectations of -73.5B and supported the U.S. Dollar on Monday. The negative Prelim Wholesale Inventories from the United States for September also supported the U.S. Dollar. It showed a decline to -0.3% from the previous month’s 0.2%.

The robust macroeconomic data from the U.S. at the starting day of the week gave strength to the U.S. Dollar and increased the prices of USD/JPY in Financial Markets.

On Monday, USD/JPY was rallied to 109 after the Positive comments from Trump about the US-China trade deal and increased U.S. Yields. Trump told the reporters on Monday that he was expecting to sign a significant portion of the Phase-one deal ahead of schedule. Although he did not mention the time for signing the part of the deal, the hint of pre-schedule deal signing itself created a big fluctuation in the market.

The overall optimistic mentality from China & U.S. gave hopes to a possible end of the prevailing Trade-war between them. U.S. & China were expected to sign the phase-one deal at the upcoming APEC Summit in Chile, but Trump announced that a portion of that deal would be signed before the Summit.

This state of affairs raised the appetite for riskier assets in the market, and USD/JPY gained traction in this regard and created a Bullish trend for itself after moving in a consolidated range for almost 2-3 previous days. The incoming positive trade headlines increased the U.S. Yields and hence created more demand for USD/JPY.

  


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.13

S2 108.52

S1 108.75

Pivot Point 108.9

R1 109.13

R2 109.28

R3 109.66

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY surged to test the resistance area of 109.030, but the bullish momentum wasn’t strong enough to retain a bullish trend for a more extended period. The USD/JPY has dropped below the 109.036 area to retest the bullish trendline support at 108.800. Above this, we can expect USD/JPY to continue trading bullish today. 

So let’s keep an eye on 108.800 today to stay bullish above and bearish below the same level to capture quick 30 pips. The USD/JPY may gain support around 108.550 today. 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range near the 1.1109. The pair were fell from the recent highs near the 1.1180 during the previous session; probably, the pair will hit the high level again if the German inflation crosses the forecast figures, and the Federal Reserve delivers a dovish rate cut at the coming meeting.

On the technical side, the currency pair had created a bullish hammer candlestick during yesterday, making a strong follow-through to Mondays bullish inside day candlestick.

The consecutive bullish candles indicate the recovery from 1.1180 has likely ended up creating a bullish higher low near 1.1073. 

Whereas, the preliminary German consumer price index for October is still unchanged at 0% and fell moderately to 1.1% from 1.2% in annualized terms. 

The EUR/USD currency pair will likely get hints from the German job data, which is scheduled to release at 08:55 GMT. On the other hand, the preliminary U.S. Q3 GDP and the monthly ADP employment figures could leave a slight impact on the EUR pairs before the Federal Reserve rate decision.

The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver the 3rd rate cut by the 25 basis-points during 2019 on Wednesday and gives the hint of pause easing further. Moreover, the hawkish rate cut could be capping the upside in EUR/USD currency pair.

According to the forecast, the market has already priced in the rate cut. So, the EUR/USD currency pair could increase mainly if the Federal Reserve keeps the doors open for delivering another rate cut before the year’s end.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1011

S2 1.1056

S1 1.1084

Pivot Point 1.1101

R1 1.1129

R2 1.1147

R3 1.1192

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD jumped off the support point of 1.1065 yesterday. A bullish trendline extended the support level, which is still keeping the EUR/USD upbeat. The pair rose to the retest 1.1100 area. Today, consider staying bullish above 1.1101 until the FOMC and Fed rate decision comes out.

All the best!

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 29 – Major Trade Setups – Trade War Fear Fades!

The risk sentiment remains on today amid faded safe-haven appeal over-optimism from the U.S. China trade deal. Regarding Brexit, Prime Minister Boris Johnson would still need support from the Liberal

The risk sentiment remains on today amid faded safe-haven appeal over-optimism from the U.S. China trade deal. Regarding Brexit, Prime Minister Boris Johnson would still need support from the Liberal

The risk sentiment remains on today amid faded safe-haven appeal over-optimism from the U.S. China trade deal. Regarding Brexit, Prime Minister Boris Johnson would still need support from the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party.

Notably, the 2-parties shown willingness to support a coming election if the Prime Minter Boris Johnson satisfies three conditions, no-deal Brexit is ruled out, no attempt to pass the PM’s Brexit deal before the election, and the election date is stipulated.

At the Fed front, the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver the rate cut by the 25-basis-points. As we are all well aware that this rate cut is counted as a 3rd-consecutive rate cut since July, markets are expecting the rate cut by 21-basis-points at the upcoming meeting on October 30 and the terminal velocity of 1.27% against the 1.88% currently.

The FOMC is expected to communicate patience in deciding future policy movements after the next week’s rate cut as they estimate the impact of the cuts which are delivered already. 

 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

Economic Calendar by TradingView

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

Today in the early Asian session, the GBP/USD currency pair found on the bullish track according to the technical indicators. However, the strong bullish trend could remain difficult if the United Kingdom parliament again rejects Prime Minster Boris Jonhson December election proposal.

On the technical side, the 50-day Moving Average has ticked above the 100-day Moving Average, confirming a bullish cross for the first time after February.

The crossover shows a sequence of the recent rally from lows near 1.22, and so does the buyer’s flag marked on the 4-hour chart. As we are well aware that the Europan Union gave a Brexit extension of 3-months and the United Kingdom parliament has rejected Boris Johnson’s offer of snap elections.

The report came from an unknown source that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will request for another vote during the December election Tuesday, there are many possibilities of success as compared to the past way because thereby they just need a simple majority to succeed.

Looking ahead, Prime Minister Boris johnson would still need support from the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party. Notably, the two parties shown willingness to support a coming election if the Prime Minter Boris Johnson satisfies three conditions: no-deal Brexit is ruled out, there are no attempts to pass the PM’s Brexit deal before the election, and the election date is stipulated.

On the other hand, the United Kingdom housing prices, Consumer Credit, Money Supply, and Mortgage Approvals are scheduled to release during the European trading hours. Across the pond, the eyes will be on the U.S. Consumer Confidence data and Pending Home Sales. 

The GBP may challenge recent highs above 1.30, as hinted by technical studies if the Europan Parliament allows an early election. Notably, If the vote fails, then GBP could drop below support at 1.2788.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2727

S2 1.2789

S1 1.2826

Pivot Point 1.2851

R1 1.2888

R2 1.2914

R3 1.2976

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.2855 area, after gaining support at 1.2830. On Tuesday, the cable continues to trade choppy from 1.2950 – 1.2785. On the 4-hour chart, the bearish engulfing pattern is anticipated to hold the GBP/USD prices towards 1.2785 area today. 

The technical indicators such as the MACD and RSI are proposing neutral bias for the GBP/USD. Consider staying bullish above 1.2785 and bearish blow the same area to capture 30 pips on either side. 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidates in the narrow range of 108.70 and 108.75, which is the strongest part of overnight trade until New York traders stepped in. This initiated a squeeze to as high as 109.04 3-months high, mainly due to the rise in the U.S. Treasury yields and certainty surrounding the United States and China trade relations.

The USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 108.98, flashing green on the day, having examined the 200-day M.A. line of 108.05 in the early Asian trading hours. 

President Donald Trump has fueled the market expectations by announcing that the United States is ahead of schedule to sign the first round of the United States and China trade deal ahead of when Xi and Trump are ready to meet in Chile next month. Moreover, the Chinese official said that most main parts of the deal basically completed already.

At the data front, the United States’ two-year Treasury yields rose from 1.63% to 1.67% – a one-month high, before steadying at 1.64%. The 10-year yield rose from 1.80% to 1.85%. United States benchmarks were also supported by the risk-on sentiment, with a fresh all-time closing high for the S&P 500, weighing on the Yen. 

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to deliver the rate cut by the 25-basis-points, as we all well aware that this rate cut is counted as a 3rd-consecutive rate cut since July while markets are expecting the rate cut by 21-basis-points at the upcoming meeting on October 30 and the terminal velocity of 1.27% against the 1.88% currently.

The FOMC is expected to communicate patience in deciding future policy movements after the next week’s rate cut as they estimate the impact of the cuts which are delivered already.      


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.13

S2 108.52

S1 108.75

Pivot Point 108.9

R1 109.13

R2 109.28

R3 109.66

 USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY currency pair has already violated the sideways trading range to hit our suggested target of 108.950 area. For now, the 108.800 level is likely to extend solid support to the USD/JPY currency pair. 

With the bullish breakout of the 108.800 level, the USD/JPY is expected to trade until 109.355 while the MACD and RSI are also supporting the bullish bias in the USD/JPY currency pair today.   

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

During the Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range around 1.100. However, during the Monday trading session, the couple was found on the bullish track and created a bullish inside day candlestick pattern, but the bullish moves could be capped due to hawkish expectation regarding the Federal Reserve rate cut and increase in the U.S. Treasury yields.

The EUR/USD currency pair closed at 0.19% up yesterday. Moreover, the bullish and bearish levels fell in Fridays trading range. As we know, the shared currency created a bullish inside day candle, which was showing by the chart.

The candlestick pattern arrangement is biased bullish. Although, the bullish trend in the pair could be reduced or continue to difficult because the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver the rate cut by the 25-basis-points during the Wednesday and lessen the need for an additional rate cut.

Therefore, heading toward the Federal Reserve rate cut decision, the United States Treasury yields could increase, keeping the greenback better buying. Notably, the ten-year yield has already increased by 14-basis-points, since the last 3-days

As of writing, the Treasury yield is found at 1.85%, and the EUR/USD currency pair is trading mostly flat on the day near 1.11.

On the other hand, the EUR currency may take hints from the German Bundesbank President Weidmann’s speech, which is scheduled to deliver at 09:50 GMT and the U.S. housing data and consumer confidence number expected to release at 14:00 GMT.

Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1.1045

S2 1.107

S1 1.1085

Pivot Point 1.1096

R1 1.1111

R2 1.1121

R3 1.1147

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

As discussed before, the EUR/USD is trading below 1.1100 support becomes resistance area. Overall, the trend in the EUR/USD remains bearish below 1.1100, as we can also notice the leading indicators such as MACD and RSI. 

On the lower side, the EUR/USD may find support at 1.1065, and the violation of this level could extend sell-off until the 1.1020 area. On the upperside, the resistance prevails at 1.1115. A bullish breakout of 1.1115 can lead to 1.1160. Let’s for selling trades below 1.1110 today. 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 25 – Major Trade Setups – Risk-off Sentiment Plays! 

The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.2% on the day to 97.68 on Thursday amid mixed U.S. economic data. The euro slid 0.3% to $1.1104. The European Central Bank held its

The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.2% on the day to 97.68 on Thursday amid mixed U.S. economic data. The euro slid 0.3% to $1.1104. The European Central Bank held its

The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.2% on the day to 97.68 on Thursday amid mixed U.S. economic data. The euro slid 0.3% to $1.1104. The European Central Bank held its benchmark rates unchanged as expected. ECB President Mario Draghi said risks to the outlook are “on the downside” compared with “tilted to the downside” previously. 

On the other hand, the Markit eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was flat on the month at 45.7 in October (46.0 expected) while the Services PMI rose to 51.8 (51.9 expected) from 51.6.

The pound dropped 0.6% to $1.2838. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he would call for an early general election for December 12. Meanwhile, the European Union is expected to decide the length of Brexit delay later today.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair consolidating in the narrow range below the 200-hour Moving Average at 0.2852, due to the uncertainty intensified regarding the Brexit deal and the United Kingdom eclection. Notably, the pair may remain under pressure mainly due to increased risk.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson admitted for the first time that he would not fulfill his (do or die) promise to get a departure between the U.K. and E.U. before October 31 and asked for a fresh election on December 12 to break Britain’s Brexit obstacle.

Although the opposition has rejected the election offer and LAbour leader Jermy Corbyn said that he would wait to observe what will the European Union decides regarding the Brexit delay before deciding that how to put the vote on Monday.

Moreover, the European Union is thinking of granting a 3-months delay. However, the decision may not come on Friday. The Brexit is moving in the uncertainty track, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson looks stuck in the middle. Therefore, traders are cautious about buying GBP.

On the technical side, the Technical charts are also indicating a move lower. It should be noted that Thursday’s bearish candlestick has opened the opportunities for a broader reversal, perhaps to the 200-day average at 1.2710.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2539

S2 1.2701

S1 1.2774

Pivot Point 1.2862

R1 1.2936

R2 1.3024

R3 1.3186

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

After violating the bullish channel, the GBP/USD pair is trading bearish at 1.2835 area. Overall, the Cable is maintaining a sideways range of 1.2950 – 1.2785. The bearish engulfing candle on the 4-hour timeframe is likely to lead the GBP/USD prices towards 1.2785 area today. 

The MACD and RSI indicators are holding in the selling zone, supporting the bearish trend in the GBP/USD. Consider staying bearish below 1.2845 today. 

 

XAU/USD – Daily Analysis

The safe-haven prices rose somewhat due to traders are awaited the next weeks, the United States Federal Reserve policy conference.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policymakers will attend next week. Its Oct. 29-30 policy settlement is required to yield in a 3rd-straight quarter-point rate cut.

President Trump tweeted that, “The Federal Reserve is negligent in its duties if it doesn’t deliver the rate cut and even, ideally, stimulate.

Gold prices remain supported in the wake of Japan’s manufacturing activity, which declined at the fastest rate in 3-years. Meanwhile, The U.S. PMI opposed expectations for a drop and rose marginally, but with limited impact on the prices of the safe-haven gold.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1466.32

S2 1482.53

S1 1493.22

Pivot Point 1498.74

R1 1509.43

R2 1514.95

R3 1531.16

XAU/USD – Trading Tips

Gold’s bullish trend continues to dominate the market. Closing of 4-hour candles above 1,495 and 1,503 area is indicating chances of further buying in the gold. The precious metal has formed three white soldiers pattern, which typically drives the bullish trend in the market.

On the upper side, the next resistance is likely to be 1,511. Therefore, we should look for buying positions above 1,500 area to target 1508 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is sidelined below the 200-day moving average and consolidating in the narrow range of 108.50 and 108.7 overnight, even after the United Sateta data a geopolitical uncertainty. 

As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 108.60, having ranged between the level of 108.56and 108.64.

At the Hong Kong front, the condition is dull in Asia right now, but the markets keep their eyes on how the Chinese can react to comments regarding the Honk Kong and China, where he criticized the Chinese over security and human rights.

At the U.S. data front, the United States September Durable Goods Orders were depressed, and the volatile headline dropped -1.1%m/m against an estimate of -0.7%m/m. Though, September New Home Sales found on the positive side, with an increase of 701,000 against 702,000, against the previous revised to 706k from 713k, though average annual prices continued to ease. Markit PMIs also held steady in October, whereby Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 and bat the estimates of 50.9 and prior 51.1. Services came in line with expectations with an increase in the composite level to 51.2 from 51.0.

Moreover, the United States’ two-year Treasury yields waited in normal ranges between 1.55% and 1.58%, and the ten-year return moved between 1.74% and 1.77%. Markets are expecting 22-basis points of a rate cut at the October 30 meeting and a terminal rate of 1.21% against 1.88% currently. President Trump tweeted that, “The Federal Reserve is negligent in its duties if it doesn’t deliver the rate cut and even, ideally, stimulate.

At the Brexit front, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson admitted for the first time that he would not fulfill his (do or die) promise to get departure between the U.K. and E.U. before October 31, and asked for fresh elections on December 12 to break Britain’s Brexit obstacle.

While the European Union was expected to give its answer to the United Kingdom governments request for a delay of European Union membership beyond October. However, due to the conflict between the United Kingdom parliament members, the European Union will decide to prefer to get some transparency first because it is continuously creating uncertainty in U.K. politics and Brexit.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.11

S2 108.37

S1 108.5

Pivot Point 108.63

R1 108.76

R2 108.88

R3 109.14

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Friday, the safe have currency pair USD/JPY is facing support at 108.280. This level has become a triple bottom level and pushed the USD/JPY higher for the third time. At the moment, the USD/JPY trend is mixed as it holds right below an immediate resistance level of 108.650. Violation of this level can extend buying until the next resistance level of 108.900. 

Today, let’s keep an eye on 108.650 to stay bearish or bullish above this level to capture quick trade in the USD/JPY. 

All the best!  

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 24 – Major Trade Setups – Traders Brace for ECB! 

The European Central bank rate decision is scheduled to release at 11:45 GMT, and Mario Draghi will conduct the press conference at 12:30 GMT. Apart from this, the

The European Central bank rate decision is scheduled to release at 11:45 GMT, and Mario Draghi will conduct the press conference at 12:30 GMT. Apart from this, the

The European Central bank rate decision is scheduled to release at 11:45 GMT, and Mario Draghi will conduct the press conference at 12:30 GMT. Apart from this, the EUR/USD currency pair may get any fresh hints from the United States Durable Goods order, which is scheduled to release at 12:30 GMT and the German preliminary Manufacturing PMIs and Eurozone due in the European trading hours.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair consolidating in the narrow range near the 1.29 and could continue to trading in the tight range due to the Brexit Uncertainty.

As the Prime Minister Boris Johson failed to convince parliament to approve the Brexit deal as a law, therefore Prime Minister Boris Johnson is now on the waiting mood that the Europan Union to decide whether to agree to his 3-months delay request.

Moreover, PM Boris Johnson Spokesman has stated that the election will be compulsory if the European Union approved a request for a 3-month delay.

However, there are very fewer chances that the European Union will decide before Friday. So, traders will be cautious until any fresh news does not come.

The GBP/USD currency pair may beat the recent highs around the 1.30 in the American trading hours if the United States Goods order data release below expects figures, by the way, the data is scheduled to release at 12:30 GMT, rising the dovish Federal Reserve expectations.

It should also be remarked that the United States Central Bank is expected to deliver a rate cut by the 25-basis-points at its coming meeting.


Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1.2733

S2 1.2813

S1 1.2864

Pivot Point 1.2894

R1 1.2945

R2 1.2974

R3 1.3054

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD has broken the bullish channel, which was carrying the pair near 1.2945. The formation fo a bearish engulfing candle is suggesting chances of a bearish reversal in the GBP/USD pair. 

On the lower side, the Sterling may find support at 1.2785 level, which also marks a double bottom on the 4-hour chart. Besides, the resistance stays at 1.2945 level. Consider staying bearish below 1.2920 today. 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

During the early Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair trying to cross the 100-hour Moving Average level at 1.1140, mainly due to the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision, which will be the last decision by the Mario Draghi as president.

The central bank rate cut by ten-basis points to -0.5% during September and announced a new step of the asset purchase program.

Europan Central Bank hasn’t many reasons to change its position at today’s meeting because the recent macro data report has been positive. Moreover, the European Central Bank members were divided due to the need to reviving bond purchases.

However, the bearish trend seems limited because the September month stimulus has been priced in. Besides this, it appears that markets are more interested in knowing hints by the incoming President Christine Lagarde in 2019 and 2020.

The European Central bank rate decision is scheduled to release at 11:45 GMT, and Draghi will hold the press conference at 12:30 GMT. Apart from this, the EUR/USD currency pair may get any fresh hints from the United States Durable Goods order, which is scheduled to release at 12:30 GMT and the German preliminary Manufacturing PMIs and Eurozone due in the European trading hours.

An unexpectedly weaker US data will support the dovish Federal Reserve expectations, and probably this greenback will drop across the board. Notably, the markets remain expecting the Federal Reserve will deliver the rate cut by the 25-basis-points on October 30.

Daily Support and Resistance 

S3 1.1058

S2 1.1092

S1 1.1112

Pivot Point 1.1126

R1 1.1147

R2 1.1161

R3 1.1195

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The EUR/USD consolidates between 1.1116 and 1.1157 after placing a high around 1.1160 at the start of the week. For now, the EUR/USD is likely to continue consolidating in the narrow range of 1.1110 – 1.1150, at least ahead of the ECB rate decision. 

The EUR/USD is bearing double bottom support at 1.1110 regions, and over this, we can anticipate a bullish trend in the EUR/USD until 1.1150 and 1.1180. On the flip side, selling can be expected beneath 1.1110 till the 1.1065 area. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and declines to 108.60, due to downbeat Brexit news increased the risk-on sentiment. The USD/JPY currency pair recently got support from the upbeat headlines regarding the United States and China trade agreement and Brexit, not to ignore the greenback weakness due to soft data. Although the increases could not long term due to the current threats from the United Kingdom. As of consequence, the recovery in the United States ten-year US treasury yields could not take much longer, whereas Wall street also ended with minor increases.

Brexit headlines and SIno-US trade headline keeps the markets cautious, as fears of hard Brexit and a potential trade deal between the United States and China.

Europan Central Bank hasn’t many reasons to change its position at today’s meeting because the recent macro data report has been positive. Moreover, today’s last meeting of President Draghi’s should be directed on the Governing Council’s views on the economic and geopolitical outlook, especially should talk about Germany’s slowdown as well as on the loud criticism by some Europan Central Bank member of restarting asset purchases. 

The ECB’s policy meeting will be under the eyes overnight, but the market doesn’t anticipate much action after last month’s rate cut package.

On the other hand, the US Durable Orders, Purchasing Managers Index, and New Home Sales will also keep under focus.

Daily Support and Resistance

 S3 107.69

S2 108.12

S1 108.39

Pivot Point 108.55

R1 108.81

R2 108.97

R3 109.4

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY gained support above 108.280, the triple bottom level, which triggered a bullish reversal in the USD/JPY. At the moment, the bullish trend seems pretty strong, but the USD/JPY may find an immediate resistance at 108.900 area first. 

The MACD and Stochastics have diverted their direction to the bullish side, signaling chances of further buying in the pair. Today, the violation fo 108.270 can help us capture a quick sell position until 107.950. Whereas, buying can be seen until 108.900 level.

All the best!  

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

USD/JPY Currency Pair Unchanged – Eyes on Brexit Uncertainty!

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidating between the narrow range of 108.29 and 108.48; by the way, the pair hit the high of108.48 so far. The pair dropped from 108.70 to

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidating between the narrow range of 108.29 and 108.48; by the way, the pair hit the high of108.48 so far. The pair dropped from 108.70 to

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidating between the narrow range of 108.29 and 108.48; by the way, the pair hit the high of108.48 so far. The pair dropped from 108.70 to 108.40 on Friday, 

Financial market’s eyes were on the Brexit ending moments, while the Chinese Gross Domestic produce disappointing figures was also a weigh on risk appetite. As well as the stocks were underperforming into the close with the S&P 500 off by 0.4%, although the DAX was down 0.2%, and the FTSE 100 was down 0.4%.

At the Brexit front, the Chinas economy increased at the target rate by 6% in the 3rd-quarter, which boosted the safe-haven demand, whereas the Brexit uncertainty is currently doing the same work.

United Kingdom Parliament voted 322 to 306 in support of Lewtin Amendment to delay Prime Minister Johnson Brexit’s deal with European Union, but the U.K parliament declared an act withholding support until full legislation is passed. So, Prime Minister Boris Johnson requested the European Union for a 3-months delay, but he didn’t sign the letter yet and stating that his plan was still to get approval for the departure deal and leave European Union by 31 October. Notably, the European Union twenty-seven leaders are remained to respond.

On the other hand, the United States’ two-year treasury yields dropped from 1.59% to 1.57%, whereas the ten-year return consolidated sideways between 1.73% and 1.77%. Markets are anticipating 22 basis points of rate cut the 31 October meeting and a terminal rate of 1.21% against 1.88% currently.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.8

S2 108.15

S1 108.28

Pivot Point 108.5

R1 108.63

R2 108.85

R3 109.2

Consider staying bullish above 108.450 to target 108.600 and 108.750 today. On the lower side, 108.200 and 108 are likely to be potential targets. All the best! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis Forex Signals

USD/JPY Testing Lower Edge of Bullish Channel – Can We Expect Buying?

The USD/JPY currency pair traded bullish to hit the three-months high at 108.94 before declining to 108.40. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is trading near the 108.40s and

The USD/JPY currency pair traded bullish to hit the three-months high at 108.94 before declining to 108.40. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is trading near the 108.40s and

The USD/JPY currency pair traded bullish to hit the three-months high at 108.94 before declining to 108.40. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is trading near the 108.40s and touches away from the 200-day Moving Average.

Brexit developments left a positive sentiment on the market, and the investors got encouragement from the progress between Turkey and Syria wherein the ceasefire was formed by the United States announced by the VP Pence in a press conference during the United States session.

However, third-quarter earnings statements were the main focus that raised the benchmarks, and subsequently, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, DJIA, ended with an increase of approximately 26 points, or 0.1%, near 27,028. Consequently, the safe-haven currency Japanese lost its haven appeal despite US September industrial production came worse than expected. The figure fell by -0.4%m/m against estimates of -0.2% while August was revised to +0.8%m/m from +0.6%m/m.

As for yields, the United States 2-year treasury yields increased from 1.58% to 1.64% due to the Brexit headlines then fell back to 1.60%. Markets are still expecting 20-basis-points of a rate cut at the 31 October meeting and a terminal rate of 1.24% against1.88% currently.

Japanese inflation data for September reported with the headline Consumer Price index in at 0.2% Year over Year (YoY) vs. the expected 0.2% & prior 0.3%.

  • Japan CPI (YoY) sep: 0.2% (est 0.2%, prev 0.3%).
  • Ex fresh food (YoY): 0.3% (est 0.3%, prev 0.5%).
  • Ex fresh food, energy (YoY): 0.5% (est 0.5%, prev 0.6%).

USD/JPY – Technical Analysis 

On the 4 hour chart, the USDJPY is trading bullish above 108.400, and above this, we can expect the USD/JPY to go after 108.900. It’s the bullish channel, which is keeping the safe-haven pair supported.

Daily Support and Resistance
S3 107.69
S2 108.18
S1 108.4
Pivot Point 108.67
R1 108.89
R2 109.16
R3 109.65

In the case of a bearish breakout, the USD/JPY pair can drop towards 108.000 level. Therefore, the traders may consider staying bullish over 108.400 and bearish below the same to capture quick 30/50 pips on either side.
All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily Market Update: Trade War Still on Fire

 

 News Commentary

 

“The United States is insisting that all countries that have placed artificial Trade Barriers and Tariffs on goods going into their country, remove those Barriers &amp

 

 News Commentary

 

“The United States is insisting that all countries that have placed artificial Trade Barriers and Tariffs on goods going into their country, remove those Barriers &amp

 

 News Commentary

 

“The United States is insisting that all countries that have placed artificial Trade Barriers and Tariffs on goods going into their country, remove those Barriers & Tariffs or be met with more than Reciprocity by the U.S.A. Trade must be fair and no longer a one-way street”.

With this tweet, Trump started the markets by denting investor risk appetites and drove down the U.S. yields.

 

The Yen and Swiss Franc were the highest gainers in the Asian session.

 

Chart Analysis

 

USD INDEX

As we expected on the daily chart, the price had reached the key resistance at 95.5 and bounced back from it, powered by divergence on RSI & the B wave (Elliot waves).

So, the index is supposed to get back down again to the support zone of 93.2-92.6, then start its journey to the C wave.


 

USD/JPY

On the daily chart, as we expected, the pair had broken the ascending channel followed by bouncing from the descending trend from the high of 2017 and the key resistance of 111.1.

The price also broke the support of 110.05 to reach the next support 108.15, to then get back up again from this level to retest the level at 110.05.

As you can see on the chart, the price is moving according to Elliot waves. By forming the A & B waves, we are waiting for the next move down to hit the C level which is located at the support of 106 and also to meet the ascending trend from the low of 2016.

So, a bounce has started and on its way.


 

USD/CAD

As we expected before, the price has reached the key resistance level of 1.334.

As we can see the price is located at very strong selling area according to many factors including key resistance level, 78.6% Fibonacci, the upper level of the reversal wedge, forming the Gartley harmonic pattern, and overbought in RSI.

So, any bounce there will lead the price down to the support zone at 1.309-1.299.


 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily Market Update: BoE Left Rates On Hold, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Declined

 

 News Commentary

 

The Pound strengthened after the Bank of England left interest rates steady, but the vote for a rate hike by the bank’s chief economist came with

 

 News Commentary

 

The Pound strengthened after the Bank of England left interest rates steady, but the vote for a rate hike by the bank’s chief economist came with

 

 News Commentary

 

The Pound strengthened after the Bank of England left interest rates steady, but the vote for a rate hike by the bank’s chief economist came with a surprise that supported the probability for the next hike in the August meeting.

The MPC voted 6-3 to hold rates flat, but the fact that there were three dissenting votes cast in favour of a rate hike today was a bit more hawkish than what was expected

 

Tensions between the U.S. and China continue, as the two largest economies in the world faced a tit-for-tat over trade tariffs. Earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese goods. China could strike back at blue-chip firms including Caterpillar and Boeing who rely on China for revenue.

The dollar also eased following the release of soft U.S. manufacturing data to drop at 19.9, lower than expected 28.9

But demand for the dollar continued to be boosted after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday reiterated that the case for gradual rate hikes remains strong.

 

New Zealand GDP growth dropped by 0.1% compared to the previous two quarters, coming in at just 0.5%, lower than the previous reading of 0.6%

 

 

Chart Analysis

 

 

USD/JPY

On the daily chart, as we expected, the pair had broken the ascending channel followed by bouncing from the descending trend from the high of 2017 and the key resistance of 111.1.

The price also broke the support of 110.05 to reach the next support 108.15, to then get back up again from this level to retest the level at 110.05.

As you can see on the chart, the price is moving according to Elliot waves. By forming the A & B waves, we are waiting for the next move down to hit the C level which is located at the support of 106 and also to meet the ascending trend from the low of 2016.

So, a bounce has started and on its way.



 

AUD/NZD

On the daily chart, as we expected before, the price had made its way up to targets at the resistance zone 1.0815-1.0865, boosted by a BAT harmonic pattern.

The price has already made its retracement as we expected it to.

Reaching the support zone and shaping the Gartley harmonic pattern, the price is supposed to continue its bullish movement up to the 1.1045 level after forming hammer & engulfing candles respectively.



 

USD/CAD

As we expected before, the price has reached the key resistance level 1.334.

As we can see the price is located at very strong selling area according to a key resistance level, 78.6% Fibonacci, the upper level of the reversal wedge, forming the Gartley harmonic pattern, and overbought in RSI.

So, any bounce there will lead the price down to the support zone at 1.309-1.299.



 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily Market Update: US- North Korea Summit, Italian Politics, and Negotiations of NAFTA

 

News Commentary

 

 

The news has featured that the U.S.-North Korea summit is back on track. North Korea and the US are starting the preparations for the June

 

News Commentary

 

 

The news has featured that the U.S.-North Korea summit is back on track. North Korea and the US are starting the preparations for the June

 

News Commentary

 

 

The news has featured that the U.S.-North Korea summit is back on track. North Korea and the US are starting the preparations for the June 12 summit between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump.

Separately, Trump contacted the Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe. He “affirmed the shared imperative of achieving the complete and permanent dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons and ballistic missile programs,” The White House claimed. And they would meet before the Kim-Trump summit.

Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield fell at the beginning of the week to a six-week low at 2.89%.

Japan’s unemployment rate remained stable at 2.5% but the jobs ratio moved lower from 1.6% to 1.59%.

 

The political situation in Italy also blocked investor’s risk appetite. Italian President Sergio Mattarella refused to accept the nomination of a euroskeptic finance minister, motivating the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and far-right League party to give up trying to form an administration.

 

Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia will fly to Washington to continue the NAFTA negotiations on Tuesday and Wednesday. “we’ve said all along we are ready to go (to Washington) at any time.” Said her spokesman Adam Austen.

 

 

Chart Analysis

 

AUD/USD

On the daily chart, the price had a false break beneath the support zone 0.75-0.7535.

That enhances the AB=CD harmonic pattern, with breaking a descending channel.

The pair had risen with an engulfing candle and pulled back with a hammer, one touching the support zone again.

Along with divergence in RSI, the price is ready for the next move up to 0.774 which is a level with a combination of the lower trend line from the high of 2018 & the broken uptrend.



 

USD/JPY

The price has reversed from a very strong short-selling area, rebounding from the key resistance level at 111.1 and the lower trend line from the high of 2015, also reversing from the top edge of the upward channel along with forming an AB=CD harmonic pattern with overbought on RSI.

The price has broken the key support level 110.05 along with the ascending channel.

So, the price is supposed to revisit the support level at 108.15.



 

AUD/JPY

On the daily chart, as we expected, the price reached the resistance zone at 84-84.35 affected by shaping a head & shoulders reversal pattern.

The price couldn’t break through this area to bounce back.

It could reach the support levels at 81.25-80.5 to pull back up again, as the pair is currently moving sideways.



 

 

USD/CAD

On the daily chart, the price had made its way into the resistance zone of 1.289-1.298, also reaching near the key resistance at 1.309.

With an approach from the descending trend line starting from the high of 2015 and the upper edge of the horn pattern.

If the daily candle closes beneath this zone again with suitable price action, it will prompt the price to be bearish to the support zone 1.2525-1.2415.



 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily Market overview: Currency Devaluation Game

 

News Events

President Trump accused China and Russia of depreciating their currencies, breaking from his own administration’s view that no major trading partners are currency manipulators.

Trump took to Twitter on Monday to declare that China and Russia are playing what he called a “currency devaluation game” at a time when the U.S. Federal Reserve is raising interest rates. “Not acceptable!’’ Trump wrote.

The attack added fuel to the brewing trade dispute between the U.S. and China and drew swift criticism from Russia, which the White House recently imposed sanctions on and collided with over Syria. The Bloomberg Dollar Index moved down to its lowest level since March 26 after Trump’s tweet, while Treasuries fluctuated.

On the other side, the release of China’s GDP is 6.8 % after the forecast which was 6.8% too.

Eyes will be on US building permits on 12:30 GMT

 

EUR/USD

On the daily chart, as shown, there’s a consolidation area which narrows with time until presently reached 1.2395

With a breakout of the channel from the low of October 2017 which the price has rejected

So we overview a retest to this area that will be critical as it decides whether to fall back again or it was a false break

Also, the pair’s near the lower trend line from the high of 2008 and the resistance 1.2515

 

 

On 4H chart, the price is at a crucial point as it hit the broken up channel along with lower trend line (as shown)

If there’s any rebound from these level, bears will be ready to attack

 

USD/JPY

On the daily chart, the price has accomplished a correction to the 38.2% Fibonacci level which is located at the same resistance level 107.8

Last February, the pair had broken the upper trend line from the low of 2011, maybe it has not enough potential to retest it now

The price has formed a very decisive continuing pattern (flag), that maintain the bearish bias

On 1H frame, the price broke the lower trend line which is considered as wedge too (reversal pattern)

 GOLD

On the daily chart, Gold is struggling to break through the resistance level 1362.4

As we see, there are many tops that couldn’t make some bullish noise

As the price is walking through a rectangle, there is a possible correction waving ahead. 

On 1H frame, the price broke the trend line that connected the higher lows,  then broke up the rising channel  rebounding from the resistance 1348.9.

 

© Forex.Academy

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Dolar Index closes bearish helped by mixed CPI data

Hot Topics:

Dolar Index closes bearish helped by mixed CPI data.
EUR-USD is losing momentum.
Manufacturing Production (YoY) falls, and pound closes slightly upward.
BoJ – Kuroda keeps the promise

Hot Topics:

Dolar Index closes bearish helped by mixed CPI data.
EUR-USD is losing momentum.
Manufacturing Production (YoY) falls, and pound closes slightly upward.
BoJ – Kuroda keeps the promise

Hot Topics:

  • Dolar Index closes bearish helped by mixed CPI data.
  • EUR-USD is losing momentum.
  • Manufacturing Production (YoY) falls, and pound closes slightly upward.
  • BoJ – Kuroda keeps the promise of monetary policy.
  • Crude Oil climbs to the highest level since 2014.

Dolar Index closes bearish helped by mixed CPI data.

The index of the greenback yesterday closed down 0.04%, finding support at level 89.03 weighed down by mixed inflation data. On the one hand, Core CPI (YoY) rose to 2.1% in March from 1.8% registered in February. On the other side, the Consumer Price Index CPI (MoM) fell to -0.1% in March, while in February it recorded an advance of 0.2%. We continue to observe the lateral range in which the price is with a bearish bias. (Click on the chart for full resolution).


 

EUR-USD is losing momentum.

The pair of the single currency is losing momentum, in the fourth consecutive trading session, the euro advanced 0.10% finding resistance at 1.2395. In an interview with Reuters, the ECB lawmaker Ardo Hansson said that the ECB “needs to be patient and eliminate its stimulus very gradually.”

Although the ECB has kept the interest rate at low levels and has maintained its policy of buying bonds, lawmakers are debating that it is time to start cutting this policy. ECB legislator Ewald Nowotny, meanwhile, said he would have “no problem” in raising the deposit rate from -0.4% to -0.2% as a means to normalise monetary policy.

In this macroeconomic context, the euro is reaching a key area in the range 1.2412 – 1.245. Should not exceed the level 1.2476, the pair could make a new bearish leg. In the long term, we still have our eyes on 1.26 as the end zone of the EUR / USD bullish cycle.

Manufacturing Production (YoY) falls, and pound closes slightly upward.

Manufacturing Production (YoY) fell to 2.5% in February well below the consensus that estimated an advance of 3.3%. The sector that was most affected was the construction sector with a decline of 1.6% in February. The National Statistics Office attributes to a large extent these low figures to the effect of severe weather.

On the technical side, we are observing a possible corrective process that could begin to be developed from area 1.42 – 1.425 with a potential level of invalidation in over 1.4345 coinciding with the highest level of the year.

 

BoJ – Kuroda keeps the promise of monetary policy.

The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, reiterated his optimistic view on the expansion of Japan’s economy, affirming that “With the improvement of the product gap and the medium to long-term inflation expectations observed, we expect that inflation will accelerate as a trend and go to 2 percent. ”

On a technical level, on the one hand, the USD-JPY is still in a limited lateral range between 106.64 and 107.49, the predominant bias is bullish and increases its probability of strength as it closes above 108. The level The invalidation of the bullish sequence is 105.66.

On the other hand, by a positive correlation concerning USDJPY, we see in the Nikkei 225 Index within a long-term bearish pattern developing an ascending diagonal formation, which in case of exceeding 21,957 could lead to exceeding 22,500 pts.

 

Crude Oil climbs to the highest level since 2014.

First, it was the turn of the Brent oil; now it is the turn of the Crude oil that has climbed to the highest levels since 2014, reaching 67.36 US $ / Barrel, while the Brent oil climbed to new highs reaching $72.69.

For the Brent Oil, although the trend is bullish, the closest resistance is $72.91, while the level of invalidation of the bullish cycle is below $67.

As with the Brent Oil, the Crude Oil is in a free climb up to $ 70.7 as long as it remains above the $64 level.

On the opposite side, by inverse correlation, the Loonie remains in free fall with a target at the base of the bullish channel, the impact zone could be between 1.2456 to 1.235.