Categories
Forex Videos

The US Stock Market Bubble Is About To Burst – Here’s Why You Should GTFO!

US stock market: Are investors walking into a trap?

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In this session, we will be looking at US stock markets, which have rocketed to historic highs, even though the United States economy is in the grip of the Coronavirus.

On Friday the 4th December, just post the non-farm payroll numbers, the S&P 500 index reached an all-time record high…

….this was also the case for the DOW Jones 30 industrial average…….
….the NASDAQ Composite index followed suit …….
….and so did the Barons 400 index


For all of these indices to simultaneously hit fresh all-time record highs is a very rare occurrence. It shows that investor sentiment is extremely high, potentially buoyed by a forthcoming and greatly anticipated next round for the Covid stimulus bill, if and when the democrats and republicans can reach an agreement on the size, currently estimated at $900 billion. The markets are also confident that the federal reserve is doing a good job in propping up the ailing American economy and sticking to a policy of low-interest rates for at least the next 2 years, which has typically corresponded with higher investment in stocks and shares, historically speaking.
Investors will look at the fed’s response to the crisis as a kind of insurance policy, that behind the scenes, the federal reserve will not allow the stock market to crash.

However, analysts who follow the Buffett indicator, which is the original measure for US market capitalisation, point out that since 1947 earnings per share have grown at around 6.21% annually, while the economy has expanded by 6.47% annually. This premise that the market capitalisation ratio to gross domestic product is based on the economy driven roughly 70% by consumption, where individuals must earn in order to buy products. And that consumption is where corporations earn their revenues, and ultimately this is where their profits come from.

The Buffett indicator shows that the mean average of around 0.7 has been closely adhered to since the 1950s, and the last time it broke away to the upside was in 1999, when speculators were investing heavily in Dot-Com companies, and where this led to the market crash in March 2000, and where we see that around this time the indicator pulls back to the mean average. Analysts at Deutsche Bank also point out that the recent run in US stocks has taken the market shift above the ratio of price to earnings above the level seen just before the 1929 stock market crash.


And here we see that the currents levels on the indicator are again highly inflated to a record high on the graph above the mean average at around 1.7.
…….
……and coincides with being above 2 standard deviations of the average range, which is an extremely rare occurrence.
And yet with the American economy still suffering from the pandemic, American corporations profit ratios are not reflective of consumer consumption, rather this time we have the Federal Reserve and US government stimulation packages which are churning out dollars into the market, and where investors are using much of those funds to push up the level of stocks due to FOMO, or fear of missing out. and where are the traditional corporate valuation matrix simply do not apply to certain stocks anymore.
Fear of a recurrence of the dot-com bubble correction, where investors ignored earnings per share valuations – many of these Dot-com firms were not making any profit at all – is another reason why we might potentially be looking at the top for stocks. Also, a fairly simple one; many of the favourites for investors, such as Amazon, Apple, and Tesla, for example, are not cheap anymore. This means that investors will be looking at cheaper stocks with growth potential, while others which are too expensive and are seen as potentially overbought. And in an economy which may not see growth return to any kind of normality for years, it adds weight to the thorny issue that the Dow Jones 30 industrial average – home to the top 30 most expensive stocks in the USA – and which is considered as a benchmark of the health of the US economy, may find buyers to be thin on the ground now, in which case a correction could be not too far away, based on everything set out in our assessment today.

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Forex Videos

No Bulls**t Guide to Forex! Why You Are Still Blowing Your Account!


Are there Forex trading secrets? 

Thank you for joining this forex academy educational video.

In this session, we will be asking the question, are there forex trading secrets?  And hopefully coming up with some answers.

The internet is awash with firms, including brokers and educational platforms, offering to teach new traders the secrets of trading forex.  Such as ‘’9 secrets to successful forex trading’’ or ‘’seven-day trading secrets exposed’’ or something along the lines of ‘’the five major secrets to apply to make a killing in forex trading.’’

Some Forex educational platforms and Forex brokers will use any gimmick they can to get new traders on board to service the revolving door of new traders coming in, blowing their accounts – where statistics show that will over 75% of new traders lose their money in the first 6 months of trading – while enticing new traders in to maintain their client numbers and keep their businesses afloat.

And so back to the question, are there any secrets in forex trading? Absolutely not!  This is not the Knights Templar, nor the Freemasons, or a secret society.  And it is most certainly not a get rich quick scheme as some people would have you believe. 

In reality, Forex is a business – the largest business on the planet – which turns over trillions of dollars 24/5.  It is complex: the financial markets are interwoven with each other, where a forex exchange rate trend can turn in an instant, with no apparent reason, other than sentiment.

It is heavily correlated with fundamental reasons and political ones, where a rumour from a tweet, or a speech by a policymaker, can cause severe volatility in the markets.  Where trends can change because of a certain time of day, where perhaps one country stops trading for the day and another begins.

If the market isn’t changing because of fundamental reasons, it is constantly changing because of technical ones.  That’s chart patterns.  Technical analysis, or the study of chart patterns, including exchange rate price action, and the implementation of technical analysis tools and indicators is pretty much the backbone of forex trading, with the upmost single important thing being where the price is at any given time, and which is also known as price action.  This, on its own, is of paramount importance because it shows who’s in control of a forex pair, whether it’s the bulls or bears, or whether the market is simply consolidating and no one is effectively driving the market in any particular direction other than sideways.

If somebody offers to sell you the secret to fixing your car engine troubles, you would probably laugh and take your car to a garage. If they offered you the secret to remove your painful appendix, you would cry in horror and run off to see your doctor.  Forex trading is a profession not a secret ridden gimmick.  The best traders learn about fundamental analysis, technical analysis, market sentiment, market correlation, how currency pairs move and why trends are developing, and when and why they stop and reverse.  And this is the real key to making money while trading Forex:  knowledge.  The more you learn, the more you will earn.

So, in conclusion, don’t be seduced by offers of learning secrets, when here at Forex Academy our professional traders, some ex institutional,  offer a totally free educational, informative service, with its reliable signal service, supported by a broker – EagleFX – which doesn’t need gimmicks, with the idea being that if traders make money on a reliable platform, where education is absolutely free, then everyone is a winner.  

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Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 29 – XRP Trading Suspended by Coinbase and OKEx, Causing a 22% Price Dip

The cryptocurrency sector had is currently in a consolidation phase as Bitcoin fell below $27,000. Bitcoin is currently trading for $26,624, representing a decrease of 1.13% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 2.56% on the day, while XRP had another major dip, losing 19.42% of its value.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Ethereum Lightning gained 1097.36% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by N3RD Finance’s 94.18% and Matrix AI Network’s 86.08% gain. On the other hand, COVER Protocol lost 97.97%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Encryptgen’s loss of 91.18% and Mining Core Coin’s loss of 69.41%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved up slightly since our last report, with its value currently being 69.2%. This value represents a 0.1% difference to the upside than the value it had when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector capitalization has decreased slightly since we last reported, with its current value being $712.73 billion. This represents an $8.45 billion decrease when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

Ever since it hit the $28,391 all-time high, Bitcoin has been trading in a sideways manner. Its price is currently within a large channel, bound by $25,512 to the downside and the aforementioned all-time high to the upside.

The descending volume alongside sideways trading was never a long-term occurrence with Bitcoin, but rather good indicators of a new explosive move ahead.

Bitcoin traders should be mindful of any volume spikes when trading, and should look for smaller time-frame Fib retracements if they want to be more precise with setting their support and resistance levels.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart

Bitcoin’s technicals on both short-term and long-term time-frames are completely bullish and show close to no signs of neutrality or bearishness.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (55.72)
  • Volume is slightly above average, but descending
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $28,391                                 1: $25,512

2: $29,000                                 2: $24,696

3: $30,000                                  3: $24,315

Ethereum

Ethereum’s move towards the upside ended at $747, prompting a pullback. However, while many analysts believed that Ether would not keep its price above $700, that’s exactly what happened.

Ethereum’s signature trading move has occurred once again, with that move being: pushing up, then pulling back, and breaking the 21-hour moving average to the downside, only to find support at the 50-hour moving average and push back up. Knowing how Ethereum moves alongside watching Bitcoin’s moves is one of the safest ways to trade cryptocurrencies at the moment, as the moves have pre-determined stop-losses and targets.


ETH/USD 1-hour Chart

Ethereum’s shorter time-frames are completely bullish and show no signs of neutrality or bearishness, while its longer-time frames have some neutrality present alongside the overall bullishness.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is above its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (59.39)
  • Volume is trading on above-average levels
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $747                                     1: $675

2: $800                                     2: $653 

3: $900                                      3: $632

Ripple

XRP has experienced another extremely bad day, as its price dropped more than 22% on the day. The move came as a result of two major exchanges, OKEx and Coinbase, dropping support for XRP due to the pending lawsuit against its company, Ripple, as well as Ripple’s executives.

Trading XRP is extremely risky at the moment due to price fluctuations that are a result of news rather than technical formations.

XRP/USD 1-hour Chart

XRP’s technicals on all time-frames are tilted towards the sell-side, with all of them showing slight signs of neutrality.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Its price is currently far below both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is in the oversold territory (28.88)
  • Volume has spiked to above-average levels
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.25                                    1: $0.214

2: $0.30                                     2: $0.14

3: $0.358 

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

EUR/AUD Global Macro Analysis – Part 3

EUR/AUD Exogenous Analysis

  • The EU and Australia Current Account to GDP differential

The current account to GDP shows the percentage of a country’s international trade that makes up the GDP. Countries with higher current account surplus have a higher current account to GDP ratio while those running deficits have a negative current account to GDP ratio.

In this case, if the GDP differential is positive, it means that the exchange rate for the EUR/AUD pair will increase. But if the differential is negative, then the exchange rate for the pair will drop.

In 2020, the current account to GDP ratio in the EU is expected to hit 3.4% and -1.5% in Australia. Thus, the current account to GDP differential is 4.9%. We assign a score of 3.

Typically, investors put their money into financial instruments that offer higher interest rates. Therefore, the country with a higher interest rate should be expected to have more inflow of funds than that with a lower interest rate. Note that when foreign investors invest in the local economy, they have to convert their money into the domestic currency. This conversion increases the demand for the domestic currency in the forex market hence increasing its value.

In forex trading, if the EUR/AUD pair has a positive interest rate differential, it means that the exchange rate of the pair will increase. Conversely, a negative interest rate differential implies that the pair has a bearish outlook.

In 2020, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash rate from 0.75% to 0.1%, while the ECB has maintained interest rates at 0%. Therefore, the interest rate differential for the EUR/AUD pair is -0.1%. We assign a score of -3.

  • The EU and Australia Growth Rate differential

In any economy, the value of the domestic currency is mostly determined by the growth of the local economy. Therefore, a country whose economy is growing faster will see its domestic currency appreciate faster.

If the growth rate differential is negative for the EUR/AUD pair, we can expect a bearish outlook. If it is positive, it implies that the exchange rate for the pair will rise.

For the first three quarters of 2020, the Australian economy contracted by 4% and the EU economy by 2.9%. The GDP growth differential is 1.1%. We assign a score of 2.

Conclusion

The EUR/AUD exogenous factors have a score of 2. If the conditions observed in the exogenous factors persist, we can expect that the pair will adopt a bullish trend in the short-term.

The technical analysis of the EUR/AUD shows the weekly price chart bouncing off the oversold region of the lower Bollinger bands. More so, the pair is still trading above the 200-period MA. All the best.

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

EUR/AUD Global Macro Analysis – Part 1 & 2

Introduction

Global macro analysis of the EUR/AUD pair will focus on the endogenous analysis of fundamental factors driving economic growth in the EU and Australia. It will also involve exogenous analysis that will focus on factors that influence the EUR/AUD pair’s exchange rate.

Ranking Scale

This analysis will assign a score between -10 and +10, depending on the endogenous and exogenous factors’ impact.

A negative score for the endogenous factors means that the local currency shed some value. When positive, it means that the domestic currency has appreciated. The endogenous score is determined through correlation analysis between the endogenous factors and the GDP growth rate.

On the other hand, when the exogenous factors have a negative score, it means that the exchange rate between the EUR and the AUD will drop. A positive score means that the exchange rate will rise. The exogenous score is determined via a correlation analysis between the exogenous factors and the EUR/AUD pair’s exchange rate.

EUR Endogenous Analysis – Summary

The endogenous analysis of the EUR has an overall score of -3. Based on the factors we have analyzed, we can expect that the Euro has marginally depreciated in 2020.

AUD Endogenous Analysis – Summary

As you can see in the below image, according to the Endogenous Indicators of AUD, we can conclude that this currency has depreciated as well in 2020.

The employment change in Australia tracks the monthly number of people who are gainfully employed or engaged in unpaid work. The fluctuation in the number of those employed on a full-time or parttime basis helps to show economic growth.

Between September and October 2020, the number of those employed in Australia increased by 178,800. This shows that the economy is recovering and adding more jobs to the labor market. However, from January to October, the Australian labor market has lost about 190,100 jobs. Hence, we assign a score of -6.

  • Australia GDP Deflator

The GDP deflator measures the overall inflation for the economy. It is a comprehensive measure of inflation rate compared to other measures since it accounts for the changes in the prices of all goods and services produced within Australia. Changes in the prices often correspond to changes in economic growth.

In the third quarter of 2020, the Australia GDP deflator rose to 102.03 points from 101.64 in Q2. Up to Q3, the GDP deflator in Australia has dropped by 0.07 points. We assign a score of -2.

  • Australia Industrial Production

Industrial production measures the quarterly changes in output from the manufacturing sector, utilities, and mining. Note that the Australian economy is heavily dependent on commodity exports, which means that industrial production changes significantly impact economic growth.

In Q2, the industrial production in Australia dropped by 3.3%, while the YoY Q3 industrial production dropped by 2.02%. The drop in Q2 is the largest quarterly drop in over 25 years. We assign a score of -6.

  • Australia Manufacturing PMI

This PMI is from a survey of companies operating in the industrial sector. The index shows whether the manufacturing sector in Australia is expanding or contracting. In Australia, the Ai Group surveys the changes in new orders, employment, inventory, output prices, and production levels. When the index is above 50, it means that the manufacturing sector is expanding and contracting when it’s below 50.

In November 2020, the AIG Australian manufacturing PMI dropped to 52.1 from 56.3 in October. Despite the drop, the Australian manufacturing PMI points to growth in the industrial sector. Hence, we assign a score of 6.

  • Australia Retail Sales

The retail sales data in Australia tracks the monthly change of the consumer expenditure on goods and services. Consumer goods include items of clothing and footwear, food, and household items. Purchases made in restaurants, departmental stores, and hotel services and deliveries are also included as retail sales.

In October 2020, the MoM retail sales increased by 1.4% from a 1.1% drop in September. In 2020, the average MoM retail sales have grown by 0.97%. We assign a score of 2.

  • Australia Consumer Confidence

The Melbourne Institute and Westpac Bank survey about 1200 households in Australia and constructs the consumer confidence index. The index is based on households’ evaluation of their financial condition for the preceding year and in the next 12 months. It also includes their economic expectations in the next one and five years. When the index is above 100, it shows that households are optimistic and pessimistic if the index is below 100. Note that consumer confidence about their finances and the economy determines their level of expenditure; hence, it drives the rate of GDP growth.

In December 2020, consumer confidence in Australia rose to 112 from 107.7 in November, which is the highest in over ten years. We assign a score of 5.

  • Australia Government Debt to GDP

The government debt to GDP determines the ability of the economy to service its debts. It also impacts the ability of the government to take on more debt to advance an economic agenda. A debt level of below 60% of the GDP is preferable since it ensures that the government can take on more debt without over-leveraging the economy.

In 2019, the Australian government debt to GDP rose to 45.1% from 41.5% in 2018. In 2020, it is expected to reach 50% on account of increased government expenditure during the coronavirus pandemic. We assign a score of -3.

Please check our following article where we discuss the Exogenous analysis of the EUR/AUD Forex pair. Cheers.

Categories
Forex Course

198. The ‘Dollar Smile Theory’

Introduction

The U.S. Dollar Smile Theory is a popular notion that illustrates that the U.S. Dollar stays positive in good as well as bad market conditions. This theory was created by a former economist and strategist Morgan Stanley, and it became popular in 2007.

This was the time when the U.S. dollar witnessed a significant boost amidst the global recession. Many times, looking at the market conditions, people would think the U.S. dollar would fall, but surprisingly it continues to grow.


Source: here.

Why does that happen?

The Dollar Smile Theory answers this question.

Following are the three scenarios that Morgan Stanley put forward to explain the positive growth of the U.S. Dollar.

  • The Strength Due To Risk Aversion

The first reason that the U.S. dollar rise is due to risk aversion. This is a situation where investors rely more on safe-haven currencies such as the dollar, yen, etc. During this period, investors consider the global economy in an unstable position. Hence, they are less likely to invest in the risky asset; instead, they put their cash on U.S. dollars.

  • The Dollar Weakens to New Low – Economic Recession and Slowdown

Under this scenario, the US dollar falls to a new low. The bottom of the smile indicates the dull performance of the currency as the economy struggles with weak fundamentals. Additionally, the possibility of falling interest rates also impacts the position of the U.S. Dollar. This results in the market participants steering clear from the dollar.

Subsequently, the primary motto of the U.S. Dollar becomes to Sell. Investors move from buying the currency to selling it and moving towards currencies that are providing higher yields.

  • The Strength Of The U.S. Economy Helps

The U.S. dollar continues to grow because of the strong economy of the country. After the low, a new smile emerges as the economy sees its light at the end of the tunnel. With the signs of the recovery of the economy, a sense of optimism spreads through the market.

This increases the sentiments towards the dollar again. With the US economy enjoying higher GDP growth, the greenback continues to appreciate. This increases the interest rate in the international market.

Though the theory is quite relevant and backed by some logic, the economy is extremely volatile. So only time will tell how definite the Dollar Smile theory is in the future.

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Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 29 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Technical Levels in Play! 

On Tuesday, the market’s fundamental side is mostly muted as we don’t have any significant economic data scheduled from any economy. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y will be released during the U.S. session; however, it’s low-impact and may not drive any major movement in the market today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.22142 after placing a high of 1.22501 and a low of 1.21809. EUR/USD pair posted gains on Monday; however, some of the gains were lost in the late trading session. On the first day of the new trading week, the EUR/USD pair moved on the upside on the back of a weak U.S. dollar and the rising risk sentiment in the market. The global risk sentiment remained well supported by the latest optimism over a last0-minute Brexit deal and got an additional boost after the U.S. President Donald Trump finally signed the $2.3 trillion pandemic aid and spending package.

On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump signed the bipartisan bill of $2.3 trillion packages, including $900 billion for stimulus checks and $1.4 trillion for government funding. Trump, who first called this bill a disgrace, signed the bill and made it legislation as the government was near to shut down. However, he urged the U.S. Congress to increase the stimulus check amount to $2000 from $600. Given his calls, the House of Representatives led by Democratic leaders approved the CASH Act on Monday. The Act was designed to support Trump’s decision to increase the stimulus checks. The House voted 275-134 on Monday to increase the proposed $600 payments to more than triple $2000 and send it to Senate.

All these developments in the U.S. stimulus measure raised the market’s risk sentiment that ultimately added strength in the risk perceived EUR/USD pair. Meanwhile, another reason behind the EUR/USD pair’s upward momentum was the sharp rise in European markets on Monday. At the start of the last trading week of 2020, the Brexit developments and the U.S. stimulus measure raised the risk sentiment that supported the European stocks to move higher levels added in the EUR/USD pair. France’s CAC40 rose by 1.3%, the Swiss SMI surged by 1.8%, and Germany’s DAX index finished up by 1.5% on Monday.

However, some of the EUR/USD pair gains in the late trading session on Monday were lost after the news of a new variant of coronavirus reaching eight European countries emerged. The more contagious variant of coronavirus identified in the U.K. has been confirmed to be reported in Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, and France. This spread of a new variant of coronavirus affected EUR/USD’s upward momentum by weighing on the local currency Euro, as fears for economic slowdown emerged again in the European countries.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2179     1.2249

1.2144     1.2286

1.2108     1.2320

Pivot Point: 1.2215

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD consolidating in a narrow trading range of 1.2259 – 1.2205. On the 2 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has formed an ascending triangle pattern supporting the pair around 1.2204 and a resistance at 1.2259. The MACD and RSI have now shifted to the bullish zone, supporting a bullish trend in the EUR/USD pair. Additionally, the 50 periods EMA supports the pair at 1.2204, and it’s also expending bullish sentiment for the EUR/USD pair today. 


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.34574 after a high of 1.35760 and a low of 1.34289. On Monday, the currency pair GBP/USD fell sharply as market participants showed concerns that the post-Brexit trade agreement will slow the trade after the crucial services sector was largely excluded from the deal. The mayor of French fishing port has warned that Thursday’s historic Brexit trade deal between the U.K. and E.U. still left the fishing sector with many key questions unanswered. The mayor of Boulogne-sur-Mer, Frederic Cuvillier, said that the agreement left French fishermen wondering how it will impact them once the festive season was over. 

The long-awaited agreement between the two parties was resolved after granting a five-year transition period over fisheries, after which E.U. fish captures ought to be reduced by 25%. The concession was given from the U.K., who has initially demanded 60% at the start of the negotiations. Furthermore, on financial services, the Brexit deal is said to go in favor of the E.U. According to Boris Johnson, the agreement on financial services has fallen short of U.K. hopes. He said that perhaps the financial sector did not go as far as the U.K. would like. After these comments, Rishi Sunak offered financial services firms the prospect of closer access to E.U. markets than outlined in the Brexit trade deal.

Sunak said that he hoped that a planned memorandum of understanding on this issue between the U.K. and E.U. would smooth over many obstacles in the next few months. However, all these tensions weighed on the local currency British Pound and dragged the GBP/USD pair to the downside.

Meanwhile, the U.K. reported its highest day of new coronavirus infections on Monday with 41,385 new COVID-19 cases. The surge was driven by the new variant of the virus that is more transmissible and has forced the hospitals to cancel non-urgent procedures and scramble to find the space. Even though the new variant does not appear to make people sicker, it is believed to be up to 70% more contagious, resulting in an increased number of coronavirus infections in the U.K.

The rising number of coronavirus in the country and its faster rate affected the local currency, as hopes for an economic recovery dampened and weighed on the GBP/USD pair. It was another reason behind the downward momentum of the GBP/USD pair on Monday. However, the pair’s losses were limited on Monday due to the weakness of the U.S. dollar. The greenback was weak across the board as the U.S. President Donald Trump has signed the new coronavirus relief bill, turning it into law on Sunday. 

Whereas, the House of Representatives, which is led by Democrats, held a vote on the CASH Act on Monday, approved the Act, and passed it to the Senate. According to CASH Act, the number of stimulus checks in the bipartisan bill of $600 will be increased to $2000 as demanded by U.S. President Donald Trump and supported by the House of Democrats.

All the U.S. stimulus relief bill developments weighed on the U.S. dollar and capped further losses in the GBP/USD pair on Monday in the absence of any macroeconomic data release.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3393     1.3541

1.3337     1.3633

1.3245     1.3689

Pivot point: 1.3485

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.3485, having supported over 1.3443 level. The support level is extended by an upward trendline on the two-hourly timeframes. The GBP/USD pair is likely to face resistance at the 1.3525 level, and a bullish crossover of 1.3525 level can drive Sterling’s price towards 1.3620. The bullish trendline is likely to support the pair today at the 1.3443 level, and violation of this can extend the selling trend until the 1.3343 level.     


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair closed at 103.778 after placing a high of 103.896 and a low of 103.402. The currency pair USD/JPY extended its gains on Monday and raised for the second consecutive day as the market’s risk sentiment increased. The risk-on market sentiment was driven by the latest decision of Donald Trump to sign the bipartisan stimulus bill of $2.3 trillion that he had initially refused to pass. 

The U.S. President Donald Trump turned the bill of $2.3 trillion, including $900 billion for pandemic aid and $1.4 trillion for spending package on Sunday as the government was near to shut down in less than 30 days. However, despite signing the bill, Donald Trump continued urging Congress to increase the number of stimulus checks from $600 per person to $2000. Followed by his calls, the House of Representatives with a Democratic majority approved the CASH Act on Monday to allow the rise in payment of stimulus checks demanded by Donald Trump. The CASH Act was approved by Democrats and sent to Senate for further proceedings.

This added in to the risk sentiment as it raised hopes for economic recovery in a depressing environment and weighed on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately added in the USD/JPY pair’s upward momentum on Monday. Furthermore, the Bank of Japan released the summary of opinions at the December rate review that showed that the B.O. policymakers were divided on how far to go in changing its stimulus program, with some calling for an overhaul of its strategy achieving 2% inflation. 

The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, said that the policy review would not lead to big changes to yield curve control (YCC) instead of focusing on fine-tuning the framework to make it more sustainable. However, some BOJ board members called for a more ambitious review as the hit to grow from coronavirus stokes fears of a return to deflation. 

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the Prelim Industrial Production reduced to 0.0% against the forecasted 1.4% and weighed on the Japanese Yen that added gains in the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair’s gains were limited on Monday as the U.S. dollar was weak across the board due to the second round of stimulus relief package issuance. The bill will restore unemployment benefits to millions of Americans and averted a partial federal government shutdown that would have begun on Thursday. It raised the risk sentiment and weighed on the U.S. dollar that ultimately capped further upside in the USD/JPY pair on Monday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.47     104.02

103.25     104.37

102.91     104.58

Pivot point: 103.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading sideways at the 103.700 level, supported by an ascending triangle pattern. On the 2 hour timeframe, the USD/JPY pair is gaining support at 103.600 and 103.400 levels along with a resistance level of 103.860, which is extended by a triple top pattern. The pair is now closing a series of doji and spinning top candles, suggesting neutral bias among investors. It’s common during such a timeframe of December as most of the traders are on holiday. Let’s consider taking a buy trade over 103.860 level and selling below the same as this level is of major importance today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

Trading The Forex Market Effectively Using ‘Renko’ Charts

Introduction

If you are a Forex trader, you can agree-many winning strategies exist out there. And Renko charts are among the handy weapons you can deploy to your advantage. This write-up will help you grasp handy tips to get your feet wet, as well as scaling your trading into a profitable trajectory.

Renko charts are not very popular as bars or candlesticks among traders. However, they can be very profitable when a trader uses them correctly. Renko chart trading is a robust way to analyze price trends, and even superb when you combine it with another tool to confirm entry and exit positions.

What Is Unique With Renko?

Well, Renko charts only show you the price movements of an underlying asset without factoring in time and volume. The formation of a Renko bar or body is in one direction. And it forms only when prices move by a predefined amount in pips. You can adjust the number of pips per block to suit your needs or trading strategy.

Also, a subsequent Renko bar can only form either adobe or below a previous one. It’s that model that shows you the price direction with unique preciseness.

Their naming arises from Japanese “Renga,” which means brick. Therefore, Renko charting arises from a series of blocks. In the light of Forex trading, the charting of the blocks moves up or down with prices.

Advantages of Trading Forex using Renko charts

  1. Renko charts are simple in both ease of interpretation and use.
  2. Great for determining the levels of support and resistance.
  3. Traders can adjust the block sizes to suit their trading needs.
  4. Renko charts are great at signaling price breakout or reversal.
  5. Ideally, Renko charts only show you how prices are moving.

Overall, Renko charts give traders an edge with overly volatile commodities like Oil and Gold. The charting digs deeper into the pricing histories. The charting model behind Renko builds on plotting price on the -Y-axis Vis a Vis time.

Renko beats conventional price-charting by removing insignificant price movements.

There are three metrics that Renko shades off from ordinary price action. And they are:

  • Any false price breakouts
  • The candle-wicks
  • The price volatility

Ideally, it pays attention to the critical metrics: support, resistance, and the trend.

Whenever prices move, Renko converts that into a commensurate block on the chart. And every block forms after price confirmations. The reality is, Renko charts do not work with partial blocks. They have to be wholesome and in line with the set numbers per single block.

As a trader, it makes great sense if you’re able to sift out short-term fluctuations out of a price chart. Beauty is Renko charting is a great tool at that. Price volatility is the greatest enemy for many traders, especially if you can only bring in a small trading margin.

While most traders can establish trends from normal price- charting, Renko charting is another wholesome set of trading tools to help you sharpen your decisions while trading.

More Pointers with Renko Charts

As indicated earlier, Renko charting creates blocks after by concurrently establishing the closing positions of a previous block. Next, subsequent blocks can only form either below or above a previous one.

Using the precedence above, Renko charting brings you a precise tool into your trading arsenal to help you view trends more clearly. Along with that, it’s also important to calculate the most appropriate block size – in line with the asset you target to trade.

Calculation of Renko blocks

There are two documented methods for the determination of the optimal sizes of Renko blocks.

First is the ATR or Average True Range. It relies on the ART indicator to determine the height of an ordinary candlestick.

Second is the model where a trader provides a predefined value for the size of a block.

So, new blocks only form when price movements meet the minimum value set for a block.

Sniffing a Buy Opportunity with Renko Charts

Image credits: best-trading-platforms.com

Renko charts help traders spot trend directions very clearly. And there are two ways to spot an opportunity to go long. Using the image above, a monthly view of a stock’s prices is visible. Simple, green bricks signify uptrends, while the ref ones signify the downtrend.

Primarily, the years 2017 and 2019 are trends – good opportunities to go long (buy). Towards the end of 2018, there’s a trend reversal (bricks turn red- the opportunity for buyers to exit and pocket profits)

Also, the same trend reversal creates an opportunity for traders to go short and also take profits. Look at 2019 also; the green bricks signify the continuity of the uptrend.

Image Credits: best-trading-platforms.com

Look at the figure above, the EUR/USD pair oscillations ranging from 1.0500 – 1.1500 from 2015 through to -2016. Also, notice the uptrend starting from 2017 but with a reversal along the way. Uptrends are opportunities to go long, while downtrends are opportunities to go short.

Pro Tip: If you are looking to upscale your trading success, Renko charts greatly help. However, ensure that aside from mastering them, it’s excellent to confirm the trends, support, and resistance levels using one or more indicators.

Keep in mind that trading success arises from careful analysis of entry and exit positions. Upfront, it may seem cumbersome – taking time to do the due diligence in the analysis. Utmost, do not trade with emotions. Renko charts and many other tools will help you sharpen your analysis.

The preciseness and effectiveness of a strategy arise from long spells of practical use. Renko is a super-tool for scalping when you compare it to classical price charting or bar or candlesticks.

Other handy trade signal tools to combine with Renko Charts

  • Simple Moving Averages -SME Enter trades with three bars in the direction of the trend and 10 SME sloping downwards or upwards. (This will help you avoid false breaks in a reversal against the trend)
  • On Balance Volume –OBV Enter trades when you confirm the trend and SME as tally that with OBV indicator’s direction.

Parting Shot

Renko charting brings in more preciseness for your trend confirmation in line with price action and the trend. It helps you filter out the noise with volume and time and leaves you with price direction only. For successful scalping, incorporating Renko is a better way to go about it. Renko charts help you keep the focus on the trend for position trades and note it’s the reversal in good time to exit.

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

EUR/NZD Global Macro Analysis – Part 3

EUR/NZD Exogenous Analysis

  • The EU and New Zealand Current Account to GDP differential

An economy’s current account comprises the balance of trade, net transfer payments, and net factor income. In international trade, a country with a higher current account surplus experiences higher demand for its domestic currency. That means the value of its currency will be higher. Typically, a higher current account to GDP means that the country has more current account surplus.

For the EUR/NZD pair, if the differential of the current account to GDP is negative, it means that the pair’s exchange rate will fall. If it’s positive, we can expect the pair’s exchange rate to increase.

In 2020, New Zealand’s current account to GDP is forecasted to reach -0.8% while that of the EU 3.4%. Thus, the current account to GDP differential between the EU and New Zealand is 4.2%. We assign a score of 4.

The prevailing interest rate in a country determines the flow of capital from foreign investors. Naturally, the country that offers a higher interest rate will attract more foreign investors who seek higher returns. Similarly, a country with lower interest rates will experience an outflow of capital by foreign investors. In the forex market, a currency pair with a positive interest rate differential tends to be bullish since traders are buying the base currency – which offers a higher interest rate and sell the quote currency – which has a lower interest rate. Conversely, a currency pair is expected to be bearish if the interest rate differential is negative since investors will sell the base currency and buy the quote currency.

In 2020, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate to 0.25%, while the ECB maintained the interest rate at 0%. Hence, the interest rate differential for the EUR/NZD pair is -0.25%. We assign a score of -3.

  • The EU and New Zealand GDP Growth Rate differential

The value of a country’s domestic currency is impacted by the growth rate of the local economy. Thus, comparing the growth rate between countries’ GDP growth rates helps determine which currency appreciated or depreciated more than the other.

The New Zealand economy contracted by 3.2% in the first three quarters of 2020 and that of the EU by 2.9%. The GDP growth rate differential is 0.3%. We assign a score of 2.

Conclusion

The EUR/NZD exogenous analysis has a cumulative rank of 3. This means that the pair is expected to trade in a bullish trend in the short-term.

The bullish trend can also be observed from the technical analysis of the weekly price charts. The pair is trading above the 200-period MA and the weekly price rebounding from the lower Bollinger Band.

We hope you found this analysis informative. If you have any questions, please let us know in the comments below. Cheers!

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

EUR/NZD Global Macro Analysis – Part 1 & 2

Introduction

In conducting the global macro analysis for the EUR/NZD pair, we will analyze the endogenous factors that impact the EU and New Zealand economic growth. We’ll also analyze exogenous economic factors that affect the EUR/NZD pair’s exchange rate in the forex market.

Ranking Scale

We will rank the effects of the endogenous and exogenous factors on a sliding scale of -10 to +10. The endogenous factors will be ranked based on correlation analysis with the GDP growth rate. When the endogenous ranking is negative, it means that the domestic currency will depreciate and appreciate when positive.

Similarly, the exogenous factors are scored based on correlation analysis with the EUR/NZD pair’s exchange rate. A positive score means that the EUR/NZD pair’s price will rise and drop if the score is negative.

Summary – EUR Endogenous Analysis

Based on the factors we have analyzed, we have got a score of -3, and we can expect the Euro to be marginally depreciating in 2020.

Summary – NZD Endogenous Analysis

A score of -4 on NZD Endogenous Analysis implies that in 2020, the NZD has depreciated as well.

Employment change measures the quarterly change in the number of people who are gainfully employed. It can be used as a comprehensive measure of the labor market changes, which corresponds to economic growth.

In Q3 of 2020, Employment in New Zealand dropped by 0.8%, from a 0.3% drop in Q2 to 2.709 million. The Q3 reading is the largest drop in QoQ employment since Q1 of 2009. We assign a score of  -6.

  • New Zealand GDP Deflator

This indicator measures the quarterly changes in the price of all economic output in New Zealand. It is regarded as the most specific inflation measure since it covers price changes for every good and service produced.

In Q2 of 2020, the New Zealand GDP deflator dropped to 1238 points from 1242 in Q1. This shows that the economy contracted in Q2. Hence, we assign a score of -3.

  • New Zealand Manufacturing Sales

New Zealand manufacturing sales track the change in the volume of total sales made in the manufacturing sector. The indicator tracks the sales in 13 industries, which comprehensively represents New Zealand’s economy. The changes in the volume of sales are directly correlated to the growth of the economy.

In Q3 of 2020, the YoY manufacturing sales in New Zealand increased by 3.1% after dropping by 12.1% in Q2 and 1.9% in Q1. The increase in Q3 is the largest recorded since January 2017. However, since the overall industrial production is still at multi-year lows, we assign a score of -6.

  • New Zealand Manufacturing PMI

This index is aggregated from a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. It is a composite of scores regarding output in the sector, prices, expected output, employment, new orders, and inventory. When the PMI is above 50, it means that the manufacturing sector is expanding. A PMI score below 50 shows that the sector is contracting. Naturally, these periods of expansions and contractions are leading indicators of changes in the GDP growth rate.

In November 2020, the New Zealand manufacturing PMI rose to 55.3 from 51.7 in October. The rise was due to increased new orders, inventory, production, and deliveries, as uncertainties surrounding COVID-19 decreased. We assign a score of 4.

  • New Zealand Retail Sales

The retail sales track the changes in the quarterly purchase of final goods and services by households in New Zealand. Although retail sales are often affected by seasonality and tend to be highly volatile, it is a significant measure of the overall economic growth since consumer expenditure is one of the primary drivers of GDP growth.

In Q3 of 2020, New Zealand retail sales increased by 28% from 14.8% recorded in Q2. Historically, the Q3 retail sales increase is the largest rise recorded in New Zealand since 1995. The increase was driven by increased expenditure on groceries, vehicles, and household goods. On average, the QoQ New Zealand retail sales figure has grown by 4.1%. We assign a score of 4.

  • New Zealand Consumer Confidence

The New Zealand consumer confidence is also called the Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index. The index measures the quarterly change in consumers’ pessimism or optimism about the performance of the economy. When the index is above 100, it shows increased optimism by households, and that below 100 shows pessimism.

In the fourth quarter of 2020, New Zealand consumer confidence rose to 106 from 95.1 in Q3. The increased optimism was driven by higher readings in both the current and expected financial situation. We assign a score of 2.

  • New Zealand Government Net Debt to GDP

Investors use this ratio to determine if the economy is capable of servicing its debt obligations. Consequently, the government’s net debt to GDP affects the government securities yield and determines a country’s borrowing costs. Typically, levels below 60% are deemed favorable.

In 2019, the New Zealand Government Net Debt to GDP dropped to 19% from 19.6% in 2018. In 2020, it is projected to range between 27% to 32%, which would be the highest since 1998. We assign a score of 1.

In the next article, we have done the exogenous analysis of both EUR and NZD pairs to accurately forecast this currency pair’s future trend. Please check that out. Cheers.

Categories
Forex Trading Guides

Guide To 160+ Forex Fundamental Indicators

As we all know, there are three primary techniques to trade the Forex market. They are Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, and Sentimental Analysis. Technical Analysis is one of the most prominent ways of trading the market, which involves using Technical Indicators, Price Action Techniques, etc. However, Fundamental analysis is one of the most underrated techniques to gauge the currency price movement.

Therefore, at Forex Academy, we have put forward a series of Fundamental Indicators that we believe strongly impact the Forex price charts. We have clearly explained the importance of each of these indicators and pictographically showed the relative impact of the indicator’s news release on the Forex currency pairs.

This guide will help you navigate through these indicators in the easiest way possible. The order of these indicators implies their relative importance. As the list goes down, the importance of the indicators deteriorates.

Interest Rate

Inflation Rate

Government Debt to GDP Ratio

Current Account to GDP Ratio

Balance Of Trade

Unemployment Rate

Labor Force Participation Rate

Core Inflation

Cash Reserve Ratio

Productivity

Foreign Exchange Reserves

Non-Farm Payroll

Consumer Price Index

Producer Price Index

Corporate Tax

Building Permits

Income Tax

Consumer Confidence

Capital Flows

Crude Oil Production

Consumer Credit

Gold Reserves

Consumer Spending

Tourism Revenues

Personal Spending

Personal Saving

Initial Jobless Claims

Terrorism Index

Gasoline Prices

Government Debt

Credit Rating’

Core Consumer Price

New Orders

Mining Production

Car Registrations

Manufacturing Production

Manufacturing PMI

Leading Economic Index

Households Debt to GDP

Imports

Housing Index

Housing Starts

Government Budget

Disposable Personal Income

Cement Production

Car Production

Capacity Utilization

Bank Lending Rate

Home Ownership Rate

Government Spending

Foreign Direct Investment

Fiscal Expenditure

Government Revenue

Exports

Employed Persons

Construction Output

Wage Growth

Private Sector Credit

Steel Production

Services PMI

Terms Of Trade

Ease of Doing Business

Corruption Index

Electricity Production

Composite PMI

Industrial Production Index

Factory Orders

Corporate Profits

Internet Speed

ZEW Economic Sentiment Index

Changes in Inventories

GDP Constant Prices

Retail Sales MoM

Gross National Product

GDP From Agriculture

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

GDP From Manufacturing

GDP From Public Administration

GDP Per Capita PPP

GDP Per Capita

GDP Growth Rate

Long Term Unemployment Rate

Labour Costs

Full-Time Employment

Minimum Wages

Employment Change

Central Bank Balance Sheet

Youth Unemployment Rate

Harmonized Consumer Prices

Export Prices

Imports by Category

Import Prices

Imports by Country

Exports by Category

GDP From Utilities

GDP From Transport

GDP from Services

GDP from Mining

GDP from Construction

Business Confidence

Sales Tax Rate

Social Security Rate

Job Vacancies

Corruption Rank

Interbank Rate

Small Business Sentiment

Bankruptcies’

Deposit Interest Rate

Employment Rate

Food Inflation

Households Debt to Income

Lending Rate

Industrial Production MoM

Inflation Rate MoM

Producer Prices Change

GDP Annual Growth Rate 

Loan Growth

Loans to Private Sector

Retail Sales YoY

Wages

GDP Deflator

Total Vehicle Sales

IP Addresses

Asylum Applications

Government Budget Value

Social Security Rate For Employees

Social Security Rate For Companies

Employment Trends Index

Commitments of Traders

Reserve Assets

Money Supply

New Home Sales

Public Sector Net Borrowing

Cryptocurrency Negotiation

Existing-Home Sales

Durable Goods Orders

Pending Home Sales

Job Cuts

Home Loans

Sentix Investor Confidence

Gross Domestic Product Estimate

Foreign Securities Purchases

Mortgage Market Index

US Crude Oil Inventories

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index

Machinery Orders

Long Government Bond Auction 

US Redbook

German Ifo Business Climate Index

US 10-Year TIPS Auction

US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

Jobs to Applications Ratio

Commodity Prices

Business Investment

Wholesale Trade Sales

Retail Sales Monitor

Economy Watchers Current Index

US TIC Net Long-Term Transactions

This list is all you need, to master the fundamental indicators and how they affect the Forex price movements. If you have any questions, please let us know in the comments below. Cheers!

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 28 – Ethereum Breaks $700; Bitcoin at $30k?

The cryptocurrency sector had an incredible weekend as Bitcoin skyrocketed towards $28,000. Bitcoin is currently trading for $27,031, representing a decrease of 2.91% compared to yesterday’s value, but a massive increase compared to its value on Friday. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 12.79% on the day, while XRP managed to lose 4.05%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

EncrypGen gained 2787.56% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by Bankacoin’s 212.44% and Trabzonspor Fan Token’s 178.8% gain. On the other hand, CEZO lost 89.89%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by JD Coin’s loss of 64.79% and Triumph X’s loss of 57.74%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved down slightly since our last report, with its value currently being 69.1%. This value represents a 0.25% difference to the downside than the value it had when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector capitalization has increased over $100 billion since we last reported, with its current value being $721.10 billion. This represents a $101.89 billion increase when compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin did not sleep this weekend as it took its time to push towards new all-time highs. The best-known cryptocurrency pushed towards the upside, reaching as high as $28,391 at one point. It is now consolidating around the $27,000 level and preparing for the next move.

Our Fib extensions drawn on Friday worked exactly as expected, with Bitcoin respecting every single one of them. With all of them still being a valid choice, traders should either look for a bounce off the immediate support levels or increased volume followed by a sharp increase in price. Trading Bitcoin’s pullbacks is not exactly the best option at the moment.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart

While Bitcoin’s 4-hour and weekly technicals show a full tilt towards the buy-side, its daily and monthly technicals show some neutrality signs.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above its 50-period EMA and slightly above its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly above its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (62.10)
  • Volume is slightly above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $28,391                                 1: $25,512

2: $29,000                                 2: $24,696

3: $30,000                                  3: $24,315

Ethereum

While Ethereum did manage to score some gains over the weekend, its upside got overshadowed by Bitcoin’s growth. However, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has decided to make that up by suddenly pushing from $624 all the way up to $738. While the move seemingly ended here, it is not yet certain whether the price will break the level or go even higher, or start its consolidation at slightly lower levels.

Traders should utilize the volume indicator, order books, and well-established support/resistance levels to its fullest to catch these explosive trades while remaining safe.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s shorter time-frames are completely bullish, while its longer-time frames show slight neutrality signs.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is far above both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its top Bollinger band
  • RSI has stepped into the overbought territory (71.68)
  • Volume is trading on above-average levels
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $738                                     1: $675

2: $800                                     2: $632 

3: $900                                      3: $600

Ripple

XRP has been trading on low volume and slowly descending after a brief rally to $0.385. The fourth-largest cryptocurrency keeps getting crushed by various companies dropping support or liquidating their XRP positions after Ripple and its executives got sued by the SEC.

XRP traders should (more than anything) pay attention to the news. However, there are many other cryptocurrencies with much safer and potentially more profitable trading setups at the moment.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP’s technicals on all time-frames slightly tilted towards the sell-side, but they all show some signs of uncertainty.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Its price is currently far below its 50-period EMA and slightly below its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly below its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI has left the oversold territory (37.46)
  • Volume is returning to average levels
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.30                                    1: $0.25

2: $0.358                                   2: $0.214

3: $0.475 

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

GBPCAD Triangle Pattern Completion. What’s Next?

The GBPCAD cross shows the completion of an Elliott wave triangle developed in its wave ((b)) of Minute degree, which moves inside the incomplete wave 2 of Minor degree. 

Technical Overview

The big picture of GBPCAD cross under the Elliott Wave view exposed in the following daily chart shows the progress of a corrective structure that began on March 09th when the price found fresh sellers at 1.80531. Once the cross topped at 180531, the cross completed an impulsive wave identified as wave 1 of Minor degree labeled in green and began to develop its wave 2 of the same degree, which remains incomplete.

The previous chart also shows the price developed its wave ((a)) of Minute degree in black as a sharp decline, making its next path corresponding to wave ((b)) as a triangle pattern. This price context carries us to verify the alternation principle between waves inside a corrective pattern. In fact,  the speedy first corrective leg gave way to an elapsed second move in an extended time range compared with wave ((a)). Likewise, the next decline corresponding to wave ((c)) shouldn’t be as quick as wave ((a)).

On the other hand, the piercing below the base-line of the triangle that connects the end of waves (b) and (d) of Minuette degree labeled in blue suggests that the cross could see further declines in the following weeks. Additionally, considering that the price action didn’t surpass the end of wave (e), the likelihood of further drops increases.

Technical Outlook

The next daily chart exposes the time segment of the corrective sequence corresponding to wave 2 of Minor degree, in which waves ((a)) and ((b)) in black were moving for 259 days, starting when the cross topped at 1.80531 and till the end of wave (e) in blue. Additionally, the piercing of the base-line that connects the end of waves (b) and (b) suggests that wave (c) should be in progress.

In this context, the incomplete bearish sequence in progress corresponding to wave ((c)) could extend in a fraction of 259 days, for example, 50 percent of that time or approximately 130 days, which carries us to foresee a downward correction in the GBPCAD cross till early April 2021. Likewise, the potential bearish target zone can be found between 1.65562 and 1.63042.

In summary, the GBPCAD cross advances in an incomplete corrective sequence corresponding to wave 2 of Minor degree. Simultaneously, its internal structure reveals the progress in its wave ((c)). The potential bearish target for this segment extends between 165562 and 1.63042. Also, the downward sequence could elapse until early April 2021. Finally, the invalidation level of the current bearish scenario is located at 1.75549.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 24 – XRP Downturn Pulls the Crypto Sector in the Red

The cryptocurrency sector reacted to XRP getting crushed by the market and ended up mostly in the red. Bitcoin is currently trading for $23,112, representing a decrease of 1.97% when compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 6.27% on the day, while XRP managed to lose a whopping 30.85%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Folgory Coin gained 5571.49% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by MINDOL’s 1224.26% and DACC’s 1070.44% gain. On the other hand, 3x Long XRP Token lost 77.00%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by B21 Invest’s loss of 74.30% and YFPRO Finance’s loss of 70.96%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved up over one percent since our last report, with its value currently being 69.3%. This value represents a 1.5% difference to the upside than the value it had when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector capitalization has decreased significantly since we last reported, with its current value being $619.31 billion. This represents a $22.90 billion decrease when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

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_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin was one of the few cryptocurrencies not affected by the major downturn of XRP after the SEC announced a lawsuit against Ripple and its executives. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap stayed within its wide range and continued trading sideways after bouncing back from the $24,000 level.

Traders currently have the option to catch a couple of safe trades within the trading range Bitcoin is in, or wait for it to spike in volume and break the range (either to the downside or upside).

BTC/USD 4-hour chart

While Bitcoin’s daily and weekly technicals are slightly tilted towards the bull side, its 4-hour and monthly technicals show some hints of neutrality alongside the bullishness.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above its 50-period EMA and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (53.57)
  • Volume is slightly above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $24,315                                 1: $22,054

2: $24,700                                 2: $21,350

3: $25,511                                  3: $19,918

Ethereum

Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum got affected by XRP’s downturn, which pulled it back over 5% on the day. The second-largest cryptocurrency fell below its $600 support level, and caused a quick panic-sell which brought its price as low as $550 (though just for a moment). Ether is now fighting to stay above the $581 level, which it will most likely succeed.

Many analysts are calling for a double bottom and are expecting an upswing from Ethereum. Traders should pay close attention to Ether’s volume and (possibly) order books.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s weekly and monthly technicals are completely bullish, while its 4-hour and daily overview are mainly tilted towards the sell-side, but show some signs of uncertainty.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is below both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is close to its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (37.44)
  • Volume is on slightly above-average levels
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $581

2: $632                                     2: $564 

3: $675                                      3: $545

Ripple

XRP got crushed as more bad news came. The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap got dropped by various exchanges, as well as its positions fully liquidated by major funds such as Bitwise. Its price dipped over 65% in just 5 days. However, XRP seems to have found support in (first) the $0.214 and (later) $0.25 levels.

XRP will most likely try to either hold its price level or push slightly towards the upside. While its further downside potential is not very high (unless more bad news comes out), buying or longing XRP is extremely risky.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP’s technicals on all time-frames are completely tilted towards the sell-side.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Its price is currently far below both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly above its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is in the oversold territory (19.40)
  • Volume is on extremely high levels
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.30                                    1: $0.25

2: $0.358                                   2: $0.214

3: $0.475 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 23 – Is This the End of XRP? SEC Officially Files Lawsuit Against Ripple and its Executives

The cryptocurrency sector was mostly neutral as Bitcoin gained even more market dominance. Bitcoin is currently trading for $23.498, representing an increase of 3.53% when compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 1.28% on the day, while XRP managed to lose a whopping 23.99%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

SYNC Network gained 97.23% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by 3x Short XRP Token’s 84.56% and Basis Share’s 77.1% gain. On the other hand, DMme lost 85.99%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by 3x Long XRP Token’s loss of 66.89% and S4FE’s loss of 60.04%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved up over one percent since our last report, with its value currently being 67.8%. This value represents a 1.2% difference to the downside than the value it had when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector capitalization has increased since we last reported, with its current value being $642.21 billion. This represents a $9.69 billion increase when compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin continued trading within a decently large range, bound by $22,054 to the downside and $24,315 to the upside. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap managed to gain a couple of percent on its price today, as most of the market consolidated. Therefore, Bitcoin market dominance has risen once again, almost reaching 70%.

Bitcoin’s descending volume and sideways trading were always a sign of a new move in the making. However, as the current trading range is quite wide, the sharp move to either side might not be so imminent.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart

While Bitcoin’s daily and weekly technicals are tilted towards the bull side, its 4-hour and monthly overviews are slightly bullish, but show some hints of neutrality.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above its 50-period EMA and slightly above its 21-period EMA
  • Price near its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (56.31)
  • Volume is slightly above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $24,315                                 1: $22,054

2: $24,700                                 2: $21,350

3: $25,511                                  3: $19,918

Ethereum

Ethereum has followed Bitcoin to the upside and gained just enough traction to attempt a $632 level break, but not enough to actually break it. This triggered a small correction, which brought it to the middle of the range, bound by $600-$602 to the downside and $632 to the upside.

Ethereum’s price movements are (in the past couple of days) either an exact copy of Bitcoin’s moves, or an exaggerated move in the same direction. Traders could possibly use this to trade Ether’s exaggerated moves by watching Bitcoin’s movement.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s daily, weekly, and monthly technicals are completely bullish, while its 4-hour overview is tilted towards the sell-side.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is slightly below both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is close to its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (44.94)
  • Volume is on slightly above-average levels
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $632                                     1: $600

2: $675                                     2: $581 

3: $738.5                                   3: $564

Ripple

XRP got crushed today on horrible news of SEC officially filing a lawsuit against its company Ripple as well as against its cofounders. While MoneyGram took a lenient position and didn’t want to make any negative comments, most crypto exchanges are planning on delisting XRP due to concerns regarding regulation.

While some may think that short-selling XRP is a good idea, watch out for slippage and insufficient demand.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP’s short-term technicals show a heavy tilt towards the sell-side, while its long-term technicals (weekly and monthly) remain bullish.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Its price is currently far below both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly below its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is in the oversold territory (18.53)
  • Volume is on extremely high levels
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.40                                    1: $0.33

2: $0.475                                   2: $0.297

3: $0.481 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 22 – XRP Plummets on News of SEC Suing Ripple; Crypto Sector in the Red

The cryptocurrency sector bounced back from its recent highs as the news of a new COVID-19 strain came out. Bitcoin is currently trading for $22,716, representing a decrease of 5.01% when compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 5.41% on the day, while XRP managed to lose a whopping 16.97%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

P2P gained 185.24% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by DMme’s 123.95% and Actinium’s 96.18% gain. On the other hand, Wownero lost 54.05%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Tap’s loss of 47.05% and Super Bitcoin’s loss of 46.31%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved up over one percent since our last report, with its value currently being 66.6%. This value represents a 1.4% difference to the downside than the value it had when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector capitalization has decreased significantly since we last reported, with its current value being $632.90 billion. This represents a $36.72 billion decrease when compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin experienced a 5% pullback after the news of a new strain of COVID-19 came out. Of course, Bitcoin was not the only one hit, as all traditional asset classes dipped in the past 24 hours as well. The downturn got stopped at the $22,054 level, and quickly sprung up to the current levels.

As mentioned in our previous daily crypto review, Bitcoin would experience an increase in volume as it exits consolidation below the recent highs, which happened today.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart

While Bitcoin’s daily technicals are tilted towards the bull side, its 4-hour overview is completely neutral. On the other hand, its weekly and monthly overviews are tilted towards the buy-side, but show hints of neutrality.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above its 50-period EMA and below its 21-period EMA
  • Price between its bottom and middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (48.91)
  • Volume is slightly above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $24,315                                 1: $22,054

2: $24,700                                 2: $21,350

3: $25,511                                  3: $19,918

Ethereum

Ethereum has followed Bitcoin to the downside, and lost just over 5% on the day. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap fell below the $632 level and attempted to break the $600-$602 support line. However, ETH bulls stopped the downturn, and the cryptocurrency is now consolidating right above this level.

Ethereum’s price movements are pretty tame so far, and traders should pay close attention to Bitcoin and its movement in the near future as Ether seems to follow it almost to the tee.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s daily, weekly and monthly technicals show a strong bullish tilt, while its 4-hour overview is tilted towards the sell-side.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is below both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is close to its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is heading towards being oversold (37.52)
  • Volume is on slightly above-average levels
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $632                                     1: $600

2: $675                                     2: $581 

3: $738.5                                   3: $564

Ripple

XRP had a horrible 24 hour trading session as its price crashed on Ripple’s announcement that they will most likely get sued by the SEC. This news brought its price down almost 20%, with it currently trading right above the $0.457 level, which stopped XRP from going down further.

XRP traders should pay attention to further updates on the lawsuit news as well as to any volume increase the cryptocurrency experiences.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP’s long-term technicals (weekly and monthly) show a slight tilt towards the buy-side, while its short-term technicals (4-hour and daily) are completely bearish.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Its price is currently far below both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly below its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is in the oversold territory (25.83)
  • Volume has returned to average levels
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.5                                      1: $0.475

2: $0.543                                   2: $457

3: $0.57                                    3: $45

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 21 – Bitcoin Dangerously Close to Making a Sharp Move

The cryptocurrency sector is split between gainers and losers as Bitcoin consolidates right below its all-time high level. Bitcoin is currently trading for $23,825, representing an increase of 1.03% when compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 1.42% on the day, while XRP managed to lose 3.20%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Axion gained 3402.38% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by MahaDAO’s 199.69% and Elxis’ 186.79% gain. On the other hand, Golden Ratio Per Liquidity lost 59.64%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by ALL BEST ICO’s loss of 50.84% and Quras’s loss of 49.42%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved down almost half a percent since our last report, with its value currently being 65.1%. This value represents a 0.4% difference to the downside than the value it had when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector capitalization has increased since we last reported, with its current value being $669.26 billion. This represents an $18.25billion increase when compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin has spent its weekend slowly rising towards the resistance level of its trading channel, which is bound by $22,055 to the downside and $24,315 to the upside. However, The two attempts to break the resistance level and enter the price discovery phase failed, leaving Bitcoin just below $24,315. With volume descending ever since Dec 17, we might expect this consolidation to end with a volume boom and a very sharp move.

While it is yet unknown whether this sharp move will be to the upside or downside, the increase in volume and a strong push towards one side will make it quite clear. Traders can use this momentum to catch a very safe trade.


BTC/USD 2-hour chart

While Bitcoin’s technicals are overall bullish, they either show signs of neutrality or even hints of bearishness. Its daily and monthly overviews have some indications of sellers being present, while its 4-hour and weekly overviews are bullish-neutral.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is far above both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly below its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is close to being overbought (65.90)
  • Volume is decreasing, and trading below the average level
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $24,315                                 1: $22,054

2: $24,700                                 2: $21,350

3: $25,511                                  3: $19,918

Ethereum

Ethereum has, unlike Bitcoin, descended slowly within its trading range, which is bound by $675 to the upside and $632. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap had one strong push towards the downside, which brought its price all the way down to $620 on Dec 20. However, the bulls prevailed, and Ether is now trading above $632 safely.

Ethereum’s price movements seem pretty tame, meaning that its next move will be of larger magnitude. Traders should pay close attention to Bitcoin and its moves in the near future before trading any other cryptocurrency, including Ether.

ETH/USD 2-hour Chart

Ethereum’s technicals are very bullish on all time-frames, with only its weekly overview showing slight neutrality.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is far above its 50-period and at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly below its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (52.43)
  • Volume is on slightly above-average levels
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $675                                     1: $632

2: $738.5                                  2: $600 

3: $817.5                                   3: $581

Ripple

With XRP’s strong push towards the upside ending on Dec 17, the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has entered another descending channel. The price was slowly dwindling down over the weekend, breaking the $0.57 support level, and then confirming its position below it. The price even went below the $0.543 support at one point, but quickly recovered.

XRP’s volume is currently almost non-existent, and traders should pay attention to any volume spikes if they intend on trading XRP.

XRP/USD 2-hour Chart

XRP’s technicals are quite mixed, but overall tilted slightly towards the buy-side. It’s 4-hour and daily overviews are bullish-neutral, while its weekly overview shows some hints of bearishness. Its monthly overview, however, is completely bullish.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Its price is currently between its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly above its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (48.77)
  • Volume has descended to average levels
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.57                                    1: $0.543

2: $0.597                                   2: $0.5

3: $0.63                                    3: $0.475

Categories
Crypto Videos

Stimulus Hope Is Driving Up The Dow Jones – Should You Buy Or Short it?


Stimulus hopes drive up the Dow Jones – where next? 

Thank you for joining this Forex Academy educational video

In this session, we will be looking at the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Index and looking for indications of the next likely move.

While the United States economy is still reeling from the ongoing Covid situation, which has as a country in its grip, investors are looking long-term, buoyed on by vaccine news and hopes of a speedy back to normal recovery once it has been rolled out to the general population. 

In reality, of course, this may still take over 12 months to implement. Therefore hopes of the recovery are fuelled by my hopes that the American government will continue to support individuals and companies via a Covid-19 relief aid stimulus to help unemployed and financial relief for other individuals and those who need it.

This has been stifled somewhat by the fact that the discussions between the democrats and republicans have not yet been able to agree on how much money the state should put up. Current estimations are that a $900 billion stimulus bill may include checks for $600 for eligible adults and their independents. 

Some Republicans have asked for hand-outs of $1,200 per individual and $2400 per couple, with $500 going to children, to support families through this critical time.

The plan is that the 900 billion stimulus package will be the first of two parts, with phase one considered as an emergency relief bill, and phase two will kick in during the early part of January 2021, once that has been agreed on.

It is talk of the stimulus package, which has been keeping the Dow Jones at record highs.

This is a daily chart of the Dow Jones 30 industrial index.  We can see that since March 2020, the general trend has been a bull trend to the upside, following on from the earlier crash as the pandemic took hold in early February. The technical line numbered 1 shows the general upward trend as hopes of a V-shaped recovery fuelled investor to buy the index.

More recently, talks of an emergency stimulus package, and especially during November where investors believed a deal was imminent, saw price action move higher from this average and particularly where we see the bullish bounce from the line where we see a steady rise up to the record-breaking 30,000 level at position A. 

Talks of the stimulus package went to and fro between the democrats and republicans, with concerns of the, will they or won’t they agree on a package and where price action moved lower to the trend line at position 2, while talks stalled, and where price action itself bounced this higher trend line, marked as 2, back up at position B C  and D in an overall bias squeeze to the upside, where price continued to flirt with 30,000 and eventually where there was a significant close and open above this key level.

In this 1-hour chart, we can see that price action is seeing resistance at around 30,300.

And by adding this support line, we now have rising wedge formation clearly evident, where price action is fading to the upside, with a potential break above the 30,300 level. Should this immanent covid relief bill be agreed upon, price action could punch higher and continue with potential for the 30,300 level to become a support line and a possible move higher by 200 or 300 points.

There is so much pressure on the American government right now to come up with an agreed amount of stimulus for those who need it that it is almost impossible that nothing will happen. This is what is driving the Dow Jones Index and other US indices higher at the moment.

  

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

AUDNZD: Profiting from its Intraday Triangle Pattern

The AUDNZD cross seems to start a movement in wave 3 of Minor degree labeled in green after completing its second corrective wave of the same degree, which found its bottom at 1.04181 on December 01st.

Technical Overview

The big picture of the AUDNZD cross and under the Elliott Wave perspective and illustrated in the following daily chart reveals the bullish sequence of Minor degree that began last March 09th, when the price pierced the parity level, dropping to 0.99906.

Once the price found fresh buyers, the Oceanic cross climbed in five internal movements of Minute degree, identified in black, until 1.10438, where the cross completed its first wave in green. After this completion, AUDNZD dropped in a complex corrective formation identified as a double-three pattern, which found support at 1.04181 on December 01st. From there, it bounced up to the current levels. 

On the other hand, the breakout of the short-term descending trendline that connects the end of wave ((x)), in black, with the end of wave (b), in blue, suggests the end of the second wave of Minor degree.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The intraday view unfolded in the next 2-hour chart shows the rally that remains in progress since December 01st when the cross found fresh buyers at 1.04181 suggesting further upsides in the following trading sessions.

The previous chart shows the wave (iii) movement of the Minuette degree labeled in blue, which currently looks consolidating its internal structure in a potential running triangle pattern. 

According to the Elliott Wave theory, practically all running triangle patterns tend to be confused with ending diagonals driving retail traders to open trades in the opposite direction to the current trend instead of considering the pattern as a continuation of the trend. Therefore under this scenario, our main bias remains on the bullish side. In this regard, this triangular pattern makes us think that the Oceanic cross might continue extending its movement until the potential target zone between 1.0758 and 1.0816, where the price could complete its third wave, in blue.

In summary, the AUDNZD cross completed its second wave of Minor degree subdivided in a descending three-wave sequence calling for a new upward movement in favor of the first rally, which should follow a five-wave sequence. In this context, the internal structure shows the progress in the third wave of an impulsive wave, which looks consolidating in a running triangle pattern. The potential target of the current rally is located between 1.0758 and 1.0816. On the other hand, the bullish scenario’s invalidation level is set at 1.04181, corresponding to the origin of the current upward sequence.

Categories
Forex Videos

Forex Trading Algorithms Part 5 Elements Of Computer Languages For EA Design!

 

Trading Algorithms – The Elements of a Computer Language – Part III: Objects

 

The most striking feature of modern programming is object-oriented programming. This video will explain the underlying philosophy and why OOP is such a big deal in modern app development.

 

Procedural programming versus OOP

Traditional programming is based on procedures or functions applied to a pre-defined collection of data structures. The main procedure starts moving and modifying variables and structures to obtain an output to print or display on a screen. 

The main drawback is that most of the primary data is globally allocated and potentially modified by other application sections. Thus a change to improve or correct one section of the code may interact with other sections, potentially creating hard to detect new bugs. The maintenance of large projects based on procedural programming is a nightmare, especially when a different programmer has to do it.

 

Object-oriented programming, on the other hand, uses objects with their own inner data structures. So, code mods happen within a single self-contained object, and any new bug is limited to that object.

 

Classes

The basic unit on Object-Oriented Programming is the Class. A Class is the description of an Object. Then, several objects are to be created using that Class description, called “instances” of the Class. 

Simply put, a Class is a collection of data structures and the procedures or functions allowed for these data structures. Classes provide data and function together. 

In our real-life, we are surrounded by objects with shape and functionality, such as cars, TVs, houses, and pants. All have their intrinsic properties. A vehicle has an engine, four wheels, battery, throttle, brakes, steering wheel, doors, seats, and so forth, and all these parts are also objects. But not all cars are equal; brand, color, engine power, seat materials, etc., change. That also happens with computer objects.

A new class can be created from a parent class, with new functionality, or with changing functionality from the parent class in a process called “inheritance.”

 

An example of a class

The Bag class is just a container for other objects. We can add or take out items to and from the Bag. The main data storage is in the self.data variable. But, bear in mind that self.data is different for every new Bag object created!. We can see that the data structure of the Bag object cannot be accessed but with the supplied methods, addsub, and show.

 

A Python financial class

A financial class can be made of around a historical OHLC data structure. Using it, we can create new information such as indicators and various stats, such as swing high/low length and duration statistics, and other information related to price analysis and forecasting.

You can see an example of what a pro-built class can do by looking at the stock-pandas class package documentation. We can see that the stock-pandas project is solely focused on the creation of a class to handle statistics and indicators for a financial data series, presenting a complete package.

As we can see, the advantages of OOP are huge. Packages can be built, which, later, can easily be versioned, updated, and expanded. The creation of apps using classes and OOP is much more straightforward, so the time needed to complete a project is shortened drastically.

Now that we have reviewed the basics of modern programming, let’s move back to trading algorithms.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

BTC/USD Weekly Chart Analysis + Possible Outcomes

In this week’s BTC/USD analysis, we will be taking an in-depth look at the most recent technical formations, as well as look for the possible price outcomes in the following days.

Overview

The crypto sector was nothing short of explosive as Bitcoin pushed past its old all-time highs and reached almost as high as $24,000. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap went into skyrocket mode without facing much resistance until it hit a wall near $23,800. As it failed to break this level twice, it started a consolidation phase.

While Bitcoin’s sentiment is extremely bullish, many analysts call for a pullback and say that the most recent push to the upside is still much overextended. However, Bitcoin is consolidating sideways rather than pulling back. One thing is certain, Bitcoin is preparing for its next move.

Technical factors



Bitcoin is currently in consolidation mode after it hit a wall twice near the $23,800 price level. The price range is getting narrower and narrower as time passes, indicating a strong breakout move out of the current boundaries inevitable. On top of that, Bitcoin’s volume has been steadily declining after the final attempt above $23,777. When it comes to support, Bitcoin’s downside is protected by the 21-period moving average as well as the $22,320 Fib retracement line.

While a move to the downside should be considered healthy, the current price bouncing off of its support levels might be just good enough for BTC to push towards the upside once again.

Likely Outcomes

We can expect three main outcomes for Bitcoin, with the ones starting with an upswing being just slightly more plausible.

  1. Bitcoin’s price can easily shoot up past $23,777 and enter price discovery mode yet again. Not much to say about the target levels there, except that the possible resistance zones might be Fib extensions from the current Fib retracement levels.
  2. Bitcoin’s price is most likely to push towards the upside, hit the all-time high level, and fail to break it, therefore prompting a pullback. In this case, the price will most likely fall below $22,320 and head straight for the $21,420 or even lower (some analysts are calling for a drop below $20,000 and a CME Futures gap fill).
  3. Bitcoin’s price might head straight down and break the $22,320 level, in which case the market will steadily test every single support level that has worked until now.

In any case, a significant increase in volume will be required, and traders should certainly pay attention to it.

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

NZD/USD Global Macro Analysis – Part 3

NZD/USD Exogenous Analysis

To effectively compare the US and the New Zealand economies, we will conduct exogenous analysis using the following fundamental aspects;

  • The US and New Zealand balance of trade difference
  • GDP growth differential in the US and New Zealand
  • The US and New Zealand interest rate differential

The US and New Zealand balance of trade difference

A country’s participation in international trade tends to determine the demand for its domestic currency. If a country is a net exporter, its currency will be in high demand in the forex market, increasing its value against other currencies.

In October 2020, New Zealand’s trade deficit was NZD 500 million compared to the US trade deficit of $63.1 billion. Although New Zealand’s trade deficit is improving, it is still lower than the balance of trade in January. On the other hand, the US trade deficit has been widening throughout the year. The difference between the two countries’ balance of trade is the trade deficit differential. Based on its correlation with the price of the NZD/USD pair, we assign a score of 4.

GDP growth differential in the US and New Zealand

GDP growth differential is the difference between the rate at which the US and New Zealand economies are expanding. It will help to show which economy is growing at a faster pace hence impacting the exchange rate between the two countries. A country whose GDP is expanding faster will enjoy favorable domestic macroeconomic conditions. Hence its currency will appreciate.

In Q3 of 2020, the New Zealand GDP contracted by 12.2% while that of the US expanded by 33.1%. That represents a GDP growth rate differential of 45.3%. If this trend continues, we should expect that the USD will strengthen against the NZD hence a bearish NZD/USD pair.

Based on our correlation analysis, we assign the GDP growth differential between the US and New Zealand a score of -4.

The US and New Zealand interest rate differential

The interest rate differential is the difference between the prevailing interest rates in New Zealand and the US. The country with a higher interest rate tends to attract more capital, inceasing the value of its currency.

At the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its official cash rate from 1% to 0.25%. During the same period, the US Federal Reserve cut the interest rate from 1.75% to 0.25%. Presently, the interest rate differential in NZD/USD is 0%.

Based on the correlation with the price of the NZD/USD pair, we assign a score of 1.

Conclusion

The NZD/USD pair has an exogenous score of 1. That means we should expect that the pair will continue on a mild bullish trend in the short-term. Note that this trend is also supported by technical analysis.

As seen in the above 1-week chart, the NZD/USD has successfully breached the upper Bollinger band indicating bullish momentum. This supports our fundamental analysis, as well. All the best.

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

NZD/USD Global Macro Analysis – Part 1 & 2

Introduction

The global macro analysis of the NZD/USD pair will involve the endogenous and exogenous analyses of the US and New Zealand economies. The endogenous analysis will focus on domestic macroeconomic factors that drive the economy. The exogenous analysis will focus on economic indicators that comprehensively compare both the US and New Zealand economies.

Ranking Scale

Both the endogenous and exogenous factors will be ranked on a scale of -10 to +10. A negative ranking for the endogenous means that the factor had a negative impact on either the currency, while a positive ranking had a bullish impact on the currency.

Similarly, when the exogenous factor is negative, it has a bearish impact on the currency pair, while a positive ranking means it had a bullish impact.

Summary – USD Endogenous Analysis

From the above table, a clear deflationary effect can be seen on the USD currency and implies that USD has depreciated in its value since the beginning of 2020. For the complete USD Endogenous Analysis, please check here.

Summary – NZD Endogenous Analysis

The NZD endogenous analysis has a total score of 4. This shows that the NZD appreciated in 2020.

  • New Zealand Inflation Rate

The CPI is the most commonly used measure of inflation in New Zealand. Here are the top categories included in the CPI: Housing with a weight of 24.2%; food and non-alcoholic drinks 18.8%; transportation 15%; recreation 9.4%; alcoholic drinks 7%; clothing, household goods and services, health, and education all have a combined weight of 18.2%.

In September 2020, New Zealand CPI increased by 0.7%. Based on the correlation with the GDP, we assign a score of -1.

  • New Zealand Unemployment Rate

This rate shows the number of New Zealand’s working population out of work and actively looking for gainful employment. As an economic indicator, it can be used to show the economy’s ability to add new jobs to the market.

In Q3 of 2020, the New Zealand unemployment rate increased to 5.3% from 4% in Q2. This shows that the labor market is yet to recover from the economic shocks of the coronavirus pandemic. Based on correlation analysis, we assign a score of -5.

  • New Zealand Manufacturing PMI

This is an index that measures the growth in the manufacturing sector in New Zealand. It is a composite of new orders, employment, inventories, and orders delivered from the manufacturing sector. When the index is above 50, it means that the manufacturing sector in New Zealand is expanding. The sector is seen to be contracting when the index is below 50.

In October 2020, the index declined to 51.7 from 54. However, the index is above the pre-coronavirus levels. That implies the manufacturing sector is recovering swiftly. Based on the correlation analysis with GDP, we assign it a score of 3.

  • New Zealand Business Confidence

In any economy, business confidence goes hand-in-hand with business confidence. In New Zealand, the business confidence index is based on a survey of about 700 businesses. The index is the difference between the number of businesses that anticipate economic improvements and those that expect the economic conditions will decline. The index covers export intentions, profit expectations, employment intentions, activity outlook, and capacity utilization.

In November 2020, the ANZ Business Confidence was -6.9 compared to -15.7 in October. Although in the negative territory, the November reading is the highest since September 2017. This shows that more businesses are becoming optimistic about the future operating environment, mostly thanks to the aggressive expansionary monetary and fiscal policies.

Based on correlation analysis with the GDP, we assign ANZ business confidence a score of 4.

  • New Zealand Retail Sales

In New Zealand, retail sales data is aggregated quarterly. It measures the change in the value of goods and services purchased by households. Remember that consumer expenditure is the main driver of economic growth, which makes the retail sales data a leading indicator of GDP growth.

In Q3 of 2020, the New Zealand retail sales increased by 28% from a drop of 14.6% and 1.2% in Q2 and Q1, respectively. The 28% increase is the largest quarterly increase in 25 years. The YoY retail sales increased by 8.3% in Q3 compared to a 14.2% drop in Q2. Based on our correlation analysis, we assign the New Zealand retail sales a score of 6.

  • New Zealand Consumer Confidence

In New Zealand, consumer confidence tends to correlate with households’ willingness to spend in the economy. The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index gauges the optimist of New Zealand households regarding the economy. The index covers households’ views on their finances, purchases in the economy, and the overall economy.

A score of above 100 shows an increasing level of optimism, while below 100 shows increasing pessimism.

In Q3 of 2020, the New Zealand consumer confidence index dropped to 95.1 from 97.2 in Q2 and 104.2 in Q1. Q3 reading is the lowest in New Zealand since 2008. Based on its correlation with GDP, we assign a score of -4.

  • New Zealand Government Net Debt to GDP

Gross national Debt to GDP helps both local and foreign creditors gauge a country’s ability to service its debt. This indicator shows the level at which the domestic economy is leveraged. A lower ratio is preferable since it means that the country has a higher GDP compared to its debt. This means that it can be able to access cheap debt in the future.

In the 2018/2019 fiscal year, the New Zealand government debt to GDP dropped to 19% from 19.6% in the 2017/2018 fiscal year. In 2020, the New Zealand government debt to GDP is projected to increase to 27% on account of the government’s aggressive spending to ease the economic pressure from the coronavirus pandemic. Based on correlation analysis with GDP, we assign New Zealand government debt to GDP a score of 1.

In the very next article, let’s analyze the exogenous indicators and forecast if this currency pair seems to be bullish or bearish in the near future.

Categories
Forex Videos

US Stock Indices – Which Currencies Should You Be Buying Right Now!


US stock indices – Bad news is the new good news!

Thank you for joining this forex academy educational video.

In this session we will be looking at us stock indices,  and trying to reason why they are at record highs when the US economy is faltering due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

This is a chart of the S&P 500 index which measures the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on the United States stock exchanges it is a commonly follow equity index.

On Friday the 4th of December 2020 the index rose to an all-time record high currently sitting at 3699.  Remarkable considering the unit United States is still in the grip of the coronavirus pandemic and where hospitals are currently overrun with victims of the disease across the United States, and especially New York and California, where ICU capacity is down to just 15%, and where the governor of California has recently said he expects large areas of the state of California to be locked down within the next few days affecting businesses and individuals’ livelihoods.

 In an almost identical trajectory since march the Dow Jones industrial average index has also reached record highs and is holding ground above the key 30,000 level.  This is simply staggering bearing in mind millions of people are still unemployed and gross domestic product and have a key indicators show that the American economy is not showing a V-shaped recovery, as was expected and hoped for by the federal reserve.

The NASDAQ Composite index and Barrons 400 also simultaneously hit all time highs. A rare occurrence.

Conversely the US dollar index, or DXY, which is a weighted index against major currencies including the euro, British pound, and yen, over the same period since the middle of march 2020 has been falling from its peak of 103.00, to 90.7 at the time of writing.

Traders have been using the dollar index as any inversely correlated technical analysis tool in particular when trading the Dow Jones 30 industrial average.

One of the reasons for this is that as the federal reserve pour billions of dollars into the system many of these are being used by institutions, traders, speculators and investors to buy stocks and shares in the hope that the US economy will quickly recover once the pandemic is under control within the United States and things revert to normal, and where history tells us that many stock indices go on to recover over 10% of their market value following previous pandemics, including Sars, and asian bird flu.

 It was no coincidence that these levels were reached after the November us non farm payroll where the unemployment rate fell to 6.7% from 6.9% and where 245,000 jobs were added, and although just year ago these types of numbers would have been seen as fantastic for the American economy,  the November key jobs report, where analyst expectations were  for over 600,000 jobs to have been added, was seen as disappointing.

 

And so while the US economy looks to be stalling and payroll numbers are weak and yet there is such optimism by investors which is keeping the US stock market buoyant. So what is going on what is really behind this?  Certainly, the US dollar seems to be reflective of the poor state of affairs with the United States economy.  And as previously alluded to, some of these dollars are finding their way back into the stock market, even though some major American corporations are lagging. The news that the covid vaccine will soon be rolled out across the globe has encouraged investors, but the truth may be that the market is expecting that the woeful economic data will simply force congress to quickly pass a stimulus bill before the Christmas break, and this would effectively prop up the American economy providing a much-needed lifeline for workers and businesses and where some of the anticipated $900 billion being talked about as a potential amount which could be agreed by both the democrats and republicans would likely maintain the buoyancy in the stock markets. The flip side of the stimulus is that on a supply and demand basis the influx of dollars will likely weigh on the dollar index providing counter currencies such as the Euro, Canadian dollar and the Australian and New Zealand dollars a lift.    

 

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Forex Course

193. Summary – Carry Trading

Introduction 

Carry trade involves borrowing or selling of an asset that has a low-interest rate, for the purpose of using the fund proceeds to make another investment with a higher rate of interest. By paying a lower rate of interest on assets and collecting a higher interest rate from another asset, traders make a difference in the interest rate.

Currency Carry Trading – How Does It Work?

In currency carry trading, the trader borrows one currency known as the borrowing fund. And, then they use this fund to purchase another currency. The traders pay low-interest rates on the borrowed currency while collecting a higher interest rate on the purchasing currency. This type of trade gives traders an effective alternative to purchasing low and sell high, which is difficult to do on other trading options. AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY are the most common currency pairs to carry trade.

Opportunities & Risks Involved

The most profitable time to perform a carry trade is when the country’s central banks are increasing or about to raise the interest rate. Low volatility situations are also profitable for these trades as traders are more likely to take more risks. Granted that the value of the currency does not fall, traders are likely to get a good amount.

There is a big risk associated with currency carry trading, primarily because of the uncertainties associated with the exchange rate. When high leverage levels are used in this trade, it implies that even small movement in the exchange rates can result in a substantial loss if the traders fail to hedge their positions properly.

Risk Management 

While lucrative, carry trading comes with its own share of risks. This is because currencies are prone to volatility. Moreover, the negative market sentiment of the traders within the currency market can also have a substantial impact on carry pair currencies. Without improper risk management, traders could end up bearing a high degree of risk. The best way to avoid risk in a carry trade is when the market sentiment and fundamentals support them.

Final Thoughts

If you are looking to invest in a carry trading, the first steps are to select the most lucrative broker vs currency pair combination. The charges of brokers vary significantly across various currencies. Therefore, it is important to ensure that the trade offers an effective risk-adjusted return. Cheers.

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Forex Signals

Gold Trade Choppy – Can Upward Channel Underpin? 

During Friday’s Asian trading session, the yellow metal prices failed to extend their overnight winning streak. They edged lower around the $1,880 level mainly due to the upbeat market sentiment, which tends to undermine the yellow-metal prices as investors continuing a retreat from the safe-haven asset after progress in U.S. stimulus measures and Brexit talks. Elsewhere, the reason behind the risk-on market sentiment could also be associated with the expectations for global economic recovery on potential coronavirus vaccines. 

In contrast to this, the widespread rise in the COVID-19 cases from the U.K., U.S., and Europe keeps challenging the market risk-on mood, helping the bullion prices limit their deeper losses. Apart from this, the US-China long-lasting tussle is also questioning the market upside momentum, which also caps further downside for the gold. Besides this, the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness has also played its major role in supporting the gold prices as the price of gold is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar. The yellow metal is currently trading at 1,883.14 and consolidating in the range between 1,878.60 – 1,886.06.

The news about vaccine rollouts was supporting the market trading sentiment. In the meantime, the progress on both Brexit trade talks and the latest U.S. stimulus measures also boosted the market trading sentiment, which tends to undermine the safe-haven metal prices. As per the latest report, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she hopes to receive the final legislative text on the deal later on Thursday. Whereas, President Donald Trump said by a tweet that stimulus talks were looking good. However, the lawmakers are now confident to approve the stimulus before the year-end. Additionally, the market trading sentiment was supported by the on-going hopes of the coronavirus vaccine. Thus the positive tone surrounding the market trading sentiment was seen as one of the key factors that kept the gold prices under pressure. 

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its long bearish bias and dropped towards its worst week in a month as demand for the safe-haven assets declined amid progress toward agreeing U.S. fiscal stimulus. It is worth mentioning that the U.S. dollar was down 1.2% for the week so far and has dropped by 12.7% from a 3-year peak in March, falling to 89.862, just above a 2-and-a-half-year low seen on the previous day. Besides, the U.S. dollar losses could also be associated with Powell’s dovish comments on inflation. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s promised to keep interest rates low until an economic recovery is secure. However, the U.S. dollar losses helped the yellow-metal prices limit its deeper losses as the price of gold is inversely related to the U.S. dollar price.

In contrast to this, the growing worries over the resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic have been destroying the hopes of the global economic recovery, which keeps challenging the market trading sentiment and help the yellow-metal prices to limit their deeper losses. On the other hand, the long-lasting tussle between the United States and China remains on the cards as the U.S. continuously imposing sanctions on Beijing. This, in turn, added further questions around the market trading sentiment and became the key factor that kept the lid on any additional losses in the safe-haven metal prices.

Looking ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on U.K. Retail Sales m/m, which are scheduled for publicity later in the day. Meanwhile, the German PPI m/m data will also be key to watch. Apart from this, the updates surrounding the Brexit, virus, and U.S. stimulus package will not lose their importance. 



Daily Support and Resistance

S1 1807.17

S2 1827.65

S3 1840.79

Pivot Point 1848.13

R1 1861.27

R2 1868.61

R3 1889.09

The yellow metal gold is trading in between a tight range of 1,884 – 1,880 mark. Gold retraced downward to complete 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1,876. On the daily timeframe, gold has formed an upward channel supporting gold around 1,874 level along with a resistance level of 1,894 and 1,910 level. The 50 periods EMA holds around 1,864, suggesting an upward trend in gold; however, we are not opening a buying trade yet as the MACD forms histograms below 0, supporting a selling trend. Let’s consider taking a buying trade over the 1,874 level today. Good luck! 

 

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Technical Analysis

EURJPY Consolidates Expecting Further Upsides

Technical Overview

The EURJPY cross consolidates in the extreme bullish sentiment zone, suggesting a bullish continuation of the strong upward movement developed in early December.

The following daily chart exposes the EURJPY cross developing a consolidation pattern, which looks like a flag pattern bounded between 125.77 and 126.70. According to the chartist analysis, the formation suggests the continuation of the previous movement. In this case, the cross could extend its gains surpassing the next resistance corresponding to the 52-week high located at 127.075.

The mid-term overview for the EURJPY cross reveals its primary trend plotted in blue, supporting a rally that remains in progress since the price confirmed its bottom at 114.397 touched on last May 07th. The secondary trend traced in green and minor trend drawn in black supports the price acceleration, which currently consolidates carrying to expect the bullish continuation for the following trading sessions.

Technical Outlook

The big picture for the EURJPY cross under the Elliott wave perspective unfolded in the next 12-hour chart shows the incomplete corrective rally corresponding to wave ((b)) of Minute degree labeled in black. This corrective rally remains in progress since the price found fresh buyers at 121.617 on last October 29th and could reach new yearly highs.

The upper degree structure of the EURJPY cross illustrated in the previous chart exposes the progress in wave B of Minor degree labeled in green, which began when the cross completed its wave A at 127.075 on last September 01st. Currently, the price advances in its wave ((b)) in black. Likewise, its internal structural series shows the development in the wave (c) of Minuette degree labeled in blue, which at the same time, looks starting to develop the wave v of Suminuette degree identified in green.

In this context, the EURJPY cross could extend its gains toward the potential target zone bounded between 126.96 until 128.08, where the cross could find fresh sellers expecting to drag the price to new lows developing the wave ((c)) in black. 

In this regard, if the price confirms its new bearish leg, the cross could complete the third segment of wave B in green. On the other hand, considering both the alternation principle and the wave ((a)) and ((b)) looks extended in terms of time, the wave ((c)) could be a sharp decline.

In conclusion, the EURJPY cross moves mostly upward in a corrective rally that belongs to wave ((b)), corresponding to the second segment of the upper degree wave B. If the price breaks the sideways consolidation structure developed since early December, the cross could strike the potential target zone between 126.96 and 128.08. Likewise, the invalidation level of the bullish scenario locates at 125.130.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 18 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – German IFO Business Climate in Focus! 

On Friday, the fundamental side-eyes will remain on the German Ifo Business Climate figures, which are expected to drop from 90.7 to 90.2 along with the current account data, which is likely to drop from 25.2 B to 22.6B. Both of these figures extend bearish pressure on the Euro. Later, the Canadian retail sales will be in focus as it may drive some price action in the Canadian pairs.


 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.22679 after placing a high of 1.22725 and a low of 1.21897. EUR/USD pair extended its gains on Thursday and peaked in April 2018, amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and the rebound of the Eurozone economy. The U.S. dollar weakness was derived from various factors, including rising hopes that the coronavirus relief bill will release soon, the dovish comments from Powell post-meeting, and the soft U.S. labor market data on Thursday. 

The Democrats and Republicans were close to reaching a deal over a new $900 billion proposal, including $600-$700 in paychecks and unemployment benefits. The U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has even said that it might be possible that U.S. lawmakers will have the agreement in writing by the end of Thursday. These rising hopes for the U.S. stimulus bill added pressure on the U.S. dollar that ultimately supported the EUR/USD pair’s upward movement.

Powell emphasized that the Fed was following outcomes-based policies, which means if progress slows toward achieving those outcomes, then-Fed could step up its asset purchases. Powell’s dovish comments weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported rising EUR/USD prices on Thursday. Furthermore, on Thursday, the soft labor market data weighed on the U.S. dollar as the Unemployment Claims from last week surged to 885K. The weak U.S. dollar because of rising unemployment claims also supported the upward momentum in EUR/USD pair on Thursday.

On the data front, at 15:00 GMT, the Final CPI for the year in November remained flat at -0.3%. The Final Core CPI from Eurozone in November also remained as expected at 0.2%. From the U.S. side, at 18:29 GMT, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index in December declined to 11.1 against the projected 20.1 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported EUR/USD prices. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week surged to 885K against the projected 817K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. For November, the Building Permits surged to 1.64M against the projected 1.55M and supported the U.S. dollar. The Housing Starts in November remained flat as projected 1.55M.

The Eurozone economy was rebounded as suggested by the December Eurozone’s Composite PMI that rose above 49 levels compared to expected 45.3 and supported the single currency. However, the Eurozone market confidence was tempered by the news that Germany, the largest Eurozone economy, would re-enter lockdown in January to curb coronavirus spread.

Meanwhile, the global economic outlook continued to improve following the news that Europe will be rolling out coronavirus vaccines. The E.U. Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said that the coronavirus vaccination would start from December 27 in Austria, Germany, and Italy. The Health Minister Jens Spahn said that if the approval comes as planned, Germany will start vaccination on December 27. The potential vaccine rollout in Europe raised the Eurozone economy’s outlook and supported the single currency Euro and added the EUR/USD pair’s gains.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2143      1.2231

1.2090      1.2266

1.2055      1.2320

Pivot point: 1.2178

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD bullish bias continues to drive an upward movement at 1.2245, and continuing an upward trend is likely to be continued. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EURUSD has entered the overbought zone, and it has completed 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at the 1.2240 level. A bearish breakout of 1.2240 can send the EUR/USD pair towards a 38.2% Fibo level of 1.2214. The odds of buying seems strong over the 1.2214 level today.


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

 The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.35833 after placing a high of 1.36244 and a low of 1.34950. GBP/USD pair extended its gains for the third consecutive day on Thursday and peaked since May 2018 due to broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The British Pound pared some gains on Thursday after the U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that it was likely that a deal would not be reached until the European Union eased its stance over key sticking issues, including fishing rights.

Johnson poured cold water on the deal’s hopes, saying that it looked very likely that the agreement will not be finalized until the European Union shifts its position substantially. This update came in the right after the positive comments from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who said that the progress in trade negotiations was seen.


Despite the hints of possible progress on a post-Brexit trade deal, PM Johnson has not shied away from his views that the possible outcome for the U.K. to leave the E.U. was without a deal. In this scenario, the U.K. and E.U. will follow the terms and conditions under the World Trade Organization that would not be good for both nations. The European Parliament has given Brexit negotiators until December 20 to strike a deal to allow enough time to ratify a potential agreement before the end of the U.K.’s transition period to leave the E.U.

Furthermore, on Thursday, the Bank of England kept interest rates at the lowest level on record after warning that rapid growth in coronavirus infections will deliver a bigger hit to the U.K. economy than expected in the final months of 2020. The official interest rate was kept unchanged at 0.1% by BoE, while the bank also left the Q.E. bond-buying program unchanged at 895 billion pounds after pumping an additional 150 billion pounds into the economy last month.

The bank acknowledged that against a backdrop of soaring coronavirus infections amid the second wave of the pandemic has forced the government to launch tier-3 restrictions in England and tighter control over Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland that has put the economy under pressure. The bank projected that the GDP of the U.K. in the final three months of 2020 would contract by a little over 1%, which means that national output for 2020 will be 11% below 2019, and it will be the biggest recession in 300 years. These dovish comments from the Bank of England removed some of the GBP/USD pair’s daily gain on Thursday.

On the data front, at 17:00 GMT, the Asset Purchase Facility from Great Britain in December remained flat at 895B. 

From the U.S. side, at 18:29 GMT, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index in December fell to 11.1 against the anticipated 20.1 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the GBP/USD pair. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week rose to 885K against the anticipated 817K and weighed on the U.S. dollar, and added further gains in GBP/USD pair. For November, the Building Permits rose to 1.64M against the anticipated 1.55M and supported the U.S. dollar. The Housing Starts in November remained flat as anticipated 1.55M.  The U.S. dollar was weak across the board as the hopes for the second round of stimulus bills raised as the Democrats and Republicans were coming closer to reach a $900 billion proposal that would include $600 to $700 paychecks and unemployment benefits. The rising hopes that U.S. stimulus will reach an agreement soon weighed on the U.S. dollar and added in the gains of GBP/USD.

The U.S. dollar was also weak because of the rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. despite the vaccine rollout. According to Johns Hopkins University, the U.S. confirmed 247,403 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday, and the number of Americans’ deaths was recorded as 3656 in a single day. Meanwhile, the risk perceived the latest improvement in risk sentiment also supported British Pound after the hopes of another vaccine approval rose. A vaccine by Moderna that will offer about 94% protection against the coronavirus was set to get emergency authorization as early as this week by US FDA. On Thursday, a panel of 22 members of experts met to discuss the efficacy and potential side effects of Moderna’s vaccine. However, the American public will start receiving vaccine shots possibly after months, and in the meantime, the hospitals across the country will be caring for the coronavirus patients. These rising optimism raised the hopes that global economic recovery will reach soon and supported the risk sentiment that added strength in Sterling and helped GBP/USD pair to continue its upward movement.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3442      1.3562

1.3378      1.3618 

1.3322      1.3683

Pivot point: 1.3498

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.3550 level, facing an immediate support level of 1.3518 level. This support level is extended by an upward trendline, which can be seen in the 4-hour timeframe. On the higher side, the pair can extend the buying trend until the 1.3588 level, and the continuation of the buying trend can also lead Sterling towards the 1.3625 level. Support holds around the 1.3518 level, and a breakout can lead the pair towards the 1.3495 area. Bullish bias dominates today.


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.074 after placing a high of 103.560 and a low of 102.872. The currency pair USD/JPY fell for the third consecutive day on Thursday amid the U.S. dollar’s broad-based weakness. The U.S. dollar fell significantly against the Japanese Yen, and the USD/JPY pair reached 102 level on Thursday as the U.S. dollar index fell below 90 levels for the first time since April 2018. The U.S. Dollar Index that measures the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six currencies fell to 89.7 level on Thursday and dragged the USD/JPY pair further on the downside towards its lowest since March.

On Thursday, the Wall Street main indexes rose modestly, with Dow Jones up by 0.39% and the NASDAQ by 0.42%. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen performed well against its rivals across the board despite the risk appetite and kept the USD/JPY pair under pressure. The hopes for the second round of U.S. stimulus bill from Congress rose and weighed on the U.S. dollar as the Democrats and Republicans reached a consensus over the proposal of $900 billion stimulus aid that will include $600-$700 in the paychecks and unemployment benefits. Furthermore, the rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. were also weighing on the local currency as the cases in total reached about 17M in the U.S. Despite the vaccine rollout in the U.S., the rising number of coronavirus causes added pressure on the U.S. dollar and added further downside on the USD/JPY pair.

The USD/JPY pair’s downward momentum was the disappointing U.S. jobless claims on Thursday. On the data front, at 18:29 GMT, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index in December decreased to 11.1 against the estimated 20.1 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added pressure over the USD/JPY pair. At 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week increased to 885K against the estimated 817K and weighed on the U.S. dollar and dragged the pair USD/JPY further on the downside. Building Permits for November increased to 1.64M against the estimated 1.55M and supported the U.S. dollar. The Housing Starts in November remained flat as estimated at 1.55M.

Since September, the rising number of unemployment claims to the highest level suggested the effect of increasingly restrictive measures in many states due to increased coronavirus cases and people’s loss of confidence. Meanwhile, in Japan, the main upcoming event was the central bank meeting on Friday. The most likely scenario was a no change in the monetary policy setting and keeping the rates at -10bps and the 10-year JGB yield target at 0.00%. The emergency lending facilities are expected to extend beyond the current run-off date of March 31, 2021. There were no macroeconomic figures to be released from Japan on Thursday, so the pair USD/JPY kept following the U.S. dollar movements that were weak across the board on the day.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.47      104.02

103.25      104.37

102.91      104.58

Pivot point: 103.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has reversed the selling bias to trade at the 103.550 level. The safe-haven currency pair is trading beneath an immediate support mark of 103.750, and the formation of candles beneath this level will reinforce the bearish breakout. If this happens, we may have an opportunity to short the USD/JPY pair today. Bearish bias looks firm as the MACD is creating histograms underneath 0, and the 50 periods EMA is operating around 103.800 level, suggesting strong probabilities of selling. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair may find subsequent support at the 102.900 level. It can be a good idea to take a selling position below 103.750 today. Good luck!

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 18 – Bitcoin at $23,000; Crypto Sector Preparing for the Next Move

The majority of the cryptocurrencies ended up in the green as the cryptocurrency sector tried to consolidate after Bitcoin’s price discovery in the all-time high territory. Bitcoin is currently trading for $22.912, representing an increase of 3.96% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 0.16% on the day, while XRP managed to gain 3.79%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

MobileGo gained 94.96% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by Puriever’s 85.99% and Tokes’ 85.09% gain. On the other hand, Basis Share lost 49.6%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by 3x Short Litecoin Token’s loss of 46.73% and Force For Fast’s loss of 42.92%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved up half a percent since our last report, with its value currently being 65.5%. This value represents a 0.5% difference to the upside than the value it had when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector capitalization has increased since we last reported, with its current value being $651.01 billion. This represents a $17.07 billion increase when compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin has stopped its price discovery phase as it bounced off the $24,000 level and began consolidating. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently fighting for the $23,000 level, a minor pivot point within a larger range bound by $24,000 to the upside and $22,050 to the downside.

At the moment, the Fib extension sitting at $22,055 is the most likely strong support level, while Bitcoin’s upside is open to new highs if the cryptocurrency passes $24,000, $23,315, and $24,500.

BTC/USD 2-hour chart

Bitcoin’s 4-hour and weekly overview are fully bullish, while its daily and monthly time-frames show slight neutrality on top of the overall bullishness.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is far above both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly below its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is heavily overbought (80.71)
  • Volume is far higher than its average levels
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $24,315                                 1: $22,054

2: $24,700                                 2: $21,350

3: $25,511                                  3: $19,918

Ethereum

Ethereum has, just like Bitcoin, hit a wall in its price ascension, triggering a pullback from the highs of $675. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap quickly fell to its immediate support level, which sits at $632. This level held up nicely, and Ethereum is now on a slow rise after confirming the support level.

An important thing to note is that Ethereum is very far from reaching its all-time high. It might be a good value investment simply because of its potential to increase its price faster than Bitcoin.

ETH/USD 2-hour Chart

Ethereum’s 4-hour and monthly overview are fully bullish, while its daily and weekly time-frames show slight neutrality on top of the overall bullishness.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is far above both its 50-period and its 21-period EMAs
  • Price is between its middle and top Bollinger band
  • RSI has barely left the overbought territory (67.29)
  • Volume is much higher than its weekly average but is descending
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $675                                     1: $632

2: $738.5                                  2: $600 

3: $817.5                                   3: $581

Ripple

XRP was the cryptocurrency that experienced the largest gains out of the three cryptocurrencies we cover daily. The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap couldn’t break a high of $0.597 with conviction (though the price briefly went as high as $0.656), which triggered a correction to its $0.57 support level. After confirming this level as strong support, XRP continued its path towards the upside and slowly started increasing in price. It is currently contesting the $0.597 level once again.


XRP/USD 2-hour Chart

XRP’s 4-hour and monthly overview are fully bullish, while its daily and weekly time-frames show slight neutrality on top of the overall bullishness.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Its price is currently above both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly below its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is nearing the overbought territory (63.71)
  • Volume is well above its average level, thought descending
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.597                                    1: $0.57

2: $0.63                                    2: $0.543

3: $0.66                                     3: $0.5

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

The Most Reliable 5-Minute Forex Scalping Strategy

Introduction

Scalping is a type of trading that involves placing many trades in a single day to profit from minor price changes in the Forex market. Traders who use this strategy are known as scalpers. It is crucial to have a robust exit strategy for scalpers to earn large gains from small market moves.

Scalping strategies are mostly applied to the intraday markets, and the trade holding duration can vary from a few seconds to minutes. For novice Forex traders, this type of trading is not recommended as scalping involves a fast-paced activity that requires precision in timing and execution.

We must always use a smaller timeframe such as a 5-min or 1-min for scalping the Forex market. We can use various reliable indicators for scalping, but in this article, we’ll learn how to scalp the 5-minute timeframe using Bollinger Bands.

Why Bollinger Bands?

Bollinger Bands is a technical analysis tool that was developed by John Bollinger. This indicator is composed of three lines as follows – A Simple Moving Average, which is the Middle band, the Upper Band & the Lower Band. The usage of Bollinger Bands indicator goes like this – the closer the price action moves to the upper band, the more overbought the market. Likewise, the closer the price moves to the lower band, the more oversold the market. The bands in this indicator widen and contract based on the market volatility. They expand when the market activity is increased and contract in choppy or less volatile markets. Let’s use this indicator in the 5-min timeframe to identify potential trading opportunities.

Scalp Trading With Bollinger Bands

We must go long when the price hits the lower band and look out for short-selling opportunities when prices hit the upper band. This is the traditional way of trading the market using Bollinger bands which is still being used by scalp traders across the world. The reason why this strategy is famous is because of its ease of usage and its ability to milk quick buck from the market.

Scalping Ranges – Example 1

In the below price chart, you can see that we have taken five buying and four selling trades in the EUR/NZD Forex pair. In this example, we have applied this strategy in a ranging market. When the price approached the support line, and when it also hit the upper Bollinger band, it is an indication for us to go long. Similarly, when the price goes near the resistance line in a range, it is an indication for us to close our long positions and look for selling opportunities.

By doing this, we have been continuously engaged in the market and made some consistent profits overall.

Example 2

Below is another example of scalp trading the Forex market when it is in the consolidation phase. Typically in a range, both the parties have equal strength. Also, it is a known fact that it is comparatively hard to trade the consolidation markets than the ranging markets. However, using this strategy, we have managed to take five buying and three selling trades in the GBPJPY Forex pair.

Scalpers typically go long or short when the price approaches the upper or lower range lines. This is the right approach, but by pairing that strategy with an indicator like Bollinger band can drastically increase the probability of those trades. The USP of the Bollinger band indicator is that it works well in all the types of market situations. It really doesn’t matter whether you scalp the ranges, channels, or even trends; this strategy will always provide reliable trading opportunities.

Example 3

In the below price chart, the price was dragging towards the upside, indicating a buying momentum, but it ended up forming a channel. In a channel, both parties hold equal power and us being scalpers; it is easy to make money from both sides. Below we can notice that if we go either long or short, we can make an equal amount of money if we are right. This is the major benefit of using Bollinger bands in channel conditions.

Scalping Trends – Example 1

Below is the price chart of the AUD/JPY currency pair in an uptrend. As you can see, during the pullback phase, the market gave us the first buy trade. When the price action approached the upper Bollinger band, the price immediately moved in the opposite direction. As a scalper, prepare your mind for these kinds of quick moves. Follow the rules of the strategy to the point, and if any trade goes three to four pips against you, immediately exit and wait for the next opportunity.

Our third buy trade also performed, but it didn’t go for bigger targets. Instead, the price action immediately reversed, which end up generating a sell signal. The next buy trade was also ended u with minor profits. For scalpers, even a profit of 8 to 10 pips can be considered good in a single trade.

Example 2

Below is an example of buying and selling trades in an uptrend in the AUD/JPY pair. We are saying this pair is an uptrend after analyzing its higher time frame. In the lower timeframe, the market may seem to be ranging, but since we know that this pair is up-trending overall, we must consider buying opportunities over sell signals.

The markets gave us five buying and three selling trades in this pair. Even though we have identifies many sell signals, we recommend not to enter those unless you have confirmation. Always remember that trend is your friend and trade according to the trend. This is the essence of scalp trading the trending markets. Therefore, when scalping trends, always go for bigger targets by following the trend. Also, expect less accuracy on counter-trend trades.

Conclusion

It requires a lot of practice to master scalping. Since the time frame is small, you must be quick in everything you do while scalping. Also, talking additional confirmations is not possible in this form of trading because of its swift nature. Please practice these strategies on a demo account before you apply them on the live markets. All the best. Cheers!

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

USD/CHF Global Macro Analysis – Part 3

USD/CHF Exogenous Analysis

The exogenous analysis covers fundamental indicators that can compare the performance of the US and Swiss economies. Note that this comparison between the two economies is what drives the exchange rate of USD/CHF. They are:

  • US and Swiss interest rate differential
  • The difference in the GDP growth in the US and Switzerland
  • Balance of trade differential

Balance of trade differential

For each country, the balance of trade shows the demand for the domestic currency in the international market. When a country has a surplus of the balance of trade, it means that its currency is in high demand in international trade. The rationale behind this is that when a country exports more than it imports, other countries will need more of that country’s currency to participate in international trade.

The balance of trade differential measures the difference between the balance of trade in Switzerland and the US. If the Swiss balance of trade is higher than that of the US, the USD/CHF pair will be bearish.

In October 2020, Switzerland had a trade surplus of CHF 2.9 billion while the US a deficit of $63.1 billion. Throughout 2020, the US trade deficit has been widening from $37 billion in January, while the Swiss trade surplus has increased from CHF 2.8 billion.

Based on the correlation with the USD/CHF pair, we assign the balance of trade differential a score of -5.

US and Switzerland interest rate differential

Typically, the country with a higher interest rate attracts more foreign capital seeking superior returns. A higher interest rate increases the domestic currency demand, which makes it appreciate in the forex market. More so, forex traders tend to be bullish on the currency with the higher interest rate.

The interest rate by The Swiss National Bank is -0.75% since January 2015. In the US, the federal funds rate is 0.25%. That makes the interest rate differential 1% for the USD/CHF pair.

Based on the correlation analysis with the USD/CHF pair, we assign the interest rate differential a score of 3.

The difference in the GDP growth in the US and Switzerland

A country’s GDP is primarily driven by domestic consumption. Although the GDP size differs in absolute terms, we can compare the US and Swiss GDP in terms of growth rate. An expanding economy is accompanied by appreciating currency. Therefore, if the US growth rate is higher than Switzerland’s, we can expect a bullish trend for the USD/CHF pair.

In Q3 of 2020, the Swiss economy expanded by 7.2% and the US by 33.1%. It means that the US economy is recovering faster than that of Switzerland. We, therefore, assign a score of 2. This implies that the GDP growth rate differential between the US and Switzerland has led to a bullish USD/CHF.

Conclusion

The USD/CHF pair has an exogenous score of -2. This implies that we can expect the pair to continue with its current bearish trend in the near future.

Note that the USD/CHF pair has breached the lower Bollinger band. Therefore, we can expect the downtrend to continue for a while, which supports our fundamental analysis. All the best.

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

USD/CHF Global Macro Analysis – Part 1 & 2

Introduction

When conducting the global macroeconomic analysis, endogenous and exogenous factors are considered. These analyses can be used to explain the price dynamic of a currency pair. In this case, we will analyze the endogenous factors that drive the economy in the US and Switzerland. We will also analyze the exogenous factors that primarily drives the price of the USD/CHF pair.

Ranking Scale

A sliding scale from -10 to +10 will be sued to ranks the impact of the individual endogenous and exogenous factors on the currency. A negative ranking for the endogenous factors means that they had a depreciating impact on the individual currencies, while a positive ranking means they resulted in currency appreciating.

Similarly, a negative ranking for the exogenous factors implies that they’ve had a bearish impact on the currency pair, while a positive ranking means they’ve had a bullish impact.

Summary of USD Endogenous Analysis

From the above table, we can see a clear deflationary effect on the USD currency and implies that it has depreciated in its value since the beginning of the year. You can find the complete USD Endogenous Analysis here.

Summary of CHF Endogenous Analysis

Overall, the endogenous analysis of CHF has a score of -5. That implies that the CHF is expected to have depreciated marginally in 2020.

  • Switzerland Inflation Rate

The rate of inflation is used to measure the changes in the price of consumer goods in Switzerland over a specified period – usually monthly or yearly. Here are the components of the CPI in Switzerland: Housing and energy, which accounts for 25% of the total CPI weight; 16% for healthcare; Transport accounts for 11%; Food and non-alcoholic drinks 11%; hotel and restaurant services 8%; 4% for Household goods and services; and clothing 3%. Education, communication services, and alcoholic beverages cumulatively account for 7% of the total CPI weight.

In November 2020, the YoY CPI in Switzerland dropped by 0.7%, while the MoM CPI dropped by 0.2%. The fall in prices of the hotel and holiday packages contributed to the drop in the inflation rate. The Switzerland CPI is at the lowest point since January 2018.

Based on our correlation analysis, we assign the Switzerland rate of inflation a score of -3.

  • Switzerland Unemployment Rate

This economic indicator shows the percentage of the total Swiss labor force that is actively seeking a job. Note that not all unemployed portion of the working-age population are seeking employment; so, they are not captured by the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate can also be used to show the rate at which the economy is adding or cutting job opportunities. This can be used to show economic growth.

In October 2020, the Swiss unemployment rate was 3.2%, down from highs of 3.4% in May, while the employment rate in Q3 2020 was 79.7%. Although it is higher than the 79.1% registered in Q2, it is still significantly lower than the pre-pandemic rate of 80.4%.

The Swiss unemployment rate has a high correlation with the GDP, but since it only increased marginally, we assign it a score of -2.

  • Switzerland Manufacturing PMI

The Swiss procure.ch Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index surveys the executives in the manufacturing sector. The index is a measure of the Swiss manufacturing sector’s performance and serves as a leading indicator for business expectations.

The Manufacturing PMI is an aggregate of five components: new orders, which a weight of  30%, output 25%, employment 20%, supplies 15%, and inventory 10%. The manufacturing sector is expected to expand when the index is above 50 and contract when the index is below 50.

In November 2020, the Swiss procure.ch Manufacturing PMI increased to 55.2, the highest since December 2018. Based on the correlation analysis with the GDP, we assign a score of 7 since it shows a robust expansion.

The Swiss services industry employs over 60% of the working population and accounts for 73% of Switzerland’s GDP. This makes the services PMI a crucial indicator of the overall economy. The Services PMI is obtained through a comprehensive survey of 300 purchasing managers in the services sector to evaluate the changes in business activities.

The survey covers areas such as customer new orders, purchasing, and sales prices, and changes in the employment level.

In November 2020, the Swiss services PMI dropped to 48 from 50.4 in October, primarily attributed to new orders’ contraction. Although it is almost double the 21.4 recorded in April, it is still lower than the 57.3 recorded in January 2020. We, therefore, assign it a score of -4.

  • Switzerland Consumer Confidence

In Switzerland, consumer confidence is used to evaluate households’ opinion on the overall economy and their financial position. Typically, consumer confidence is higher when there is high GDP growth, and the unemployment rate is low.

In the fourth quarter of 2020, the Swiss consumer confidence was -12.8, better than Q2 -39.3. Consumer confidence is used to show the likelihood of how much households will spend in the economy. Hence we assign it a score of -2.

  • Switzerland Government Gross Debt to GDP

The Swiss government debt is the totality of the government’s amount owed to both domestic and foreign lenders. This debt is expressed as a percentage of the GDP o help determine the indebtedness of the economy. Lenders also use this metric to determine if there is a possibility of default by the government. Typically, government debt that is less than 60% of the economy is considered ideal.

In 2019, Switzerland’s government gross debt to GDP was 41%, and it’s projected to hit 49% in 2020 due to increased government expenditure to curb the economic slowdown brought about by the coronavirus pandemic. However, the Swiss government’s gross debt to GDP has been steadily declining since 2004, averaging at around 37%. Based on our correlation analysis and the fact that it has marginally increased in 2020, we assign a score of -1.

Now we know that both USD and CHF have depreciated according to their respective endogenous indicators. Please check our next article to know if this pair is expected to be bullish or bearish in the near future according to their exogenous indicators. Cheers.

Categories
Forex Course

192. Criteria To Carry Trade The Forex Market and Risks Involved

Introduction

In the previous lesson, we discussed instances when a carry can work, and when it’s bound to fail. But, having this knowledge won’t be of much help if you do not know the best criteria for a currency carry trade and the risks involved.

Criteria to Carry Trade

There are two basic criteria to carry trade the Forex market profitably.

The interest rate differential between two currency pairs needs to be high with no prospects of reducing in the near term.

The currency pair that we choose has to be on a bullish trend in favor of the currency with the higher interest rate. The reason for this is to ensure you can remain bullish on the high yielding currency and profit from the interest rate differential for the longest possible time.

Let’s take the example of the AUD/JPY pair. Japan’s interest rate has remained at -0.1%, while in Australia was held at 0.25%. That means the interest rate differential between the AUD/JPY pair has been 0.35%. Therefore, if you were to borrow and sell the JPY to buy the AUD, you’d expect a pay-out of 0.35%. Note that this is the same as going long on the AUD/JPY pair.

In this scenario, going long on AUD/JPY from March 2020 to October 2020 would have earned you over 900 pips. At the same time, you’d be earning an interest rate differential of 0.35%.

Risks Involved In Carry Trading

So far, a carry trade sounds like a risk-free strategy. But, like any other investment, the carry trade has its fair amount of risks – especially when leverage is involved.

Remember, in the previous lesson, we mentioned two conditions for a carry trade to thrive. First, there had to be low volatility in the market. The reason for this is to ensure that your open position is not wiped out due to currency fluctuations before you reap the profits of interest rate differential. Note that using trailing stop orders can help mitigate the risk of price fluctuations in the forex market.

The second condition for a carry trade to thrive was the stable economic conditions that might encourage the hiking of interest rates. If the economic climate is full of uncertainties, like with the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, central banks are more likely to cut interest rates than hike them. Therefore, if extreme interest rate cuts occur while you are in a currency carry trade, it could result in losses. 

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Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 17 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – BOE Policy In Limelight! 

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the U.K. Monetary Policy reports due during the late European hours. BOE isn’t expected to change the rates, and it may keep them at 0.10%. However, it will be essential to see MPC Official Bank Rate Votes. Besides, the European Final CPI data will remain in focus today. During the U.S. session, the Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be the main highlight to drive further market movement.

 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.21988 after placing a high of 1.22121 and a low of 1.21450. EUR/USD pair extended its gains and rose for 3rd consecutive day on Wednesday to reach its highest since April 2018.

EUR/USD pair broke above 1.22 level mainly because of the strong PMIs on Wednesday and the U.S. dollar weakness. On the data front, at 13:15 GMT, the French Flash Services PMI for December raised to 49.2 against the expected 39.9 and supported Euro. The French Flash Manufacturing PMI in December also raised to 51.1 against the estimated 50.0 and supported Euro. 

At 13:30 GMT, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI in December surged to 58.6 against the forecasted 56.4 and supported Euro. The German Flash Services PMI also advanced to 47.7 against the expected 44.1 and supported Euro. At 14:00 GMT, the Flash manufacturing PMI from Eurozone raised to 55.5 against the forecasted 53.0 and supported Euro. The Flash Services PMI in December from the whole bloc also raised to 47.3 from the expected 41.9 and supported Euro. At 15:00 GMT, the Trade Balance from Eurozone for October came in greater than expected 22.1B as 25,9B and supported Euro.

The manufacturing and services sector in Eurozone advanced and showed growth in December that supported the single currency Euro and added in the daily gains of the EUR/USD pair. From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales for November declined to -0.9% against the projected 0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported EUR/USD gains. For November, the Retail Sales also declined to -1.1% against the projected -0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added in the EUR/USD pair. AT 19:45 GMT, the Flash manufacturing PMI for December rose to56.5 against the projected 55.9 and supported the U.S. dollar, and capped further gains in EUR/USD pair. 

The Flash Services PMI for December declined to 55.3 against the projected 55.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported momentum upward in EUR/USD pair. At 20:00 GMT, the Business Inventories for October rose to 0.7% against the projected 0.6%and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The NAHB Housing Market Index also declined to 86 against the projected 88 and weighed on the U.S. dollar, and added additional EUR/USD pair gains.

Apart from strong PMI figures, the latest news that Moderna’s vaccine was also up to getting emergency use authorization from the US FDA by the end of this week. This vaccine will be the second vaccine after Pfizer’s drug was approved last week and is currently being used on people. This news added in the risk sentiment and supported the risk perceived EUR/USD pair.

Furthermore, the Brexit hopes also raised on Wednesday and supported the single currency Euro after E.U.’s chief negotiator explained that she could not say if there will be a trade deal with Britain, but there had been progressing. The next few days would be critical. These developments also added to the upward trend of the EUR/USD pair on Wednesday.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve concluded its two-day meeting on Wednesday and decided to keep its interest rates at the same level until the inflation reaches its target. However, it decided to extend its Q.E. program that weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the EUR/USD pair’s upward trend.


Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2126      1.2175

1.2077      1.2197

1.2099      1.2224

Pivot point: 1.2148

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD bullish bias continues to dominate the market as it’s trading at 1.2225. On the higher side, the EUR/USD may target the 1.2250 level and 1.2282 resistance areas. The direct currency pair may find support at 1.2175, which is extended by a double top resistance, which now is working as a support. The MACD and RSI are supporting bullish bias along with the 50 periods EMA. We can expect a continuation of a bullish trend in the EUR/USD today.


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

 The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.35083 after placing a high of 1.35543 and a low of 1.34340. GBP/USD pair extended its gains on Wednesday and rose to its highest level since May 2018. The British Pound pared gains on Wednesday against the U.S. dollar as reports suggested that U.K. and E.U. were close to a breakthrough on a key sticking point amid the ongoing talks. The President of European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said that there was a narrow path to an agreement on a post-Brexit trade deal with the U.K.

The U.K. acknowledged that some progress had been made but continued to suggest a no-deal was most likely outcome as significant differences remain. Reports suggested that progress has been made over the level playing rules, but differences remain over the fisheries issue, as fishing quotas remain a challenge in negotiations.

However, the U.K. has softened its tone on fisheries in a bid to get a deal over the line. Britain ditched the demands for fishing vessels operating under the U.K. flag to be majority British-owned in the post Brexit era. Whereas PM Boris Johnson remained harsh in his speech on Wednesday and said that the E.U. should realize that the U.K. has a right to take control over its land and waters like every other country.

The hopes for the Brexit trade deal increased as the recent progress on talks came as both sides were coming under increasing pressure to secure a deal before the transition period on December 31. These hopes kept the British Pound supported and GBP/USD pair higher.

On the data front, at 12:00 GMT, the Consumer Price Index from the U.K. for November fell short of expectations of 0.6% and came in as 0.3% that weighed on the British Pound. In November, the Core CPI also fell to 1.1% against the expectations of 1.4% and weighed on Sterling. The RPI of the year from the U.K. for November also declined to 0.9% against the forecasted 1.3% and weighed heavily on GBP. At 12:02 GMT, the PPI Input from the U.K. declined to 0.2% from the expected 0.4% in November and weighed on the British Pound. The PPI Output, however, remained flat with the expectations of 0.2%. At 14:30 GMT, the Flash manufacturing PMI in December from Great Britain raised to 57.3 against the projected 55.9 and supported British Pound and added GBP/USD pair gains. The Flash Services PMI, however, declined to 49.9 against the forecasted 50.5 in December and weighed on Sterling. The Housing Price Index for October advanced to 5.4% against the estimated 5.1% and supported British Pound. 

Most of the data came in against the British Pound; however, the currency pair GBP/USD remains on the upside over the latest Brexit optimism.

From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales for November fell to -0.9% against the anticipated 0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported GBP/USD pair. The Retail Sales for November also fell to -1.1% against the anticipated -0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added gains in GBP/USD pair. 

At 19:45 GMT, the Flash manufacturing PMI for December surged to56.5 against the anticipated 55.9 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Flash Services PMI for December fell to 55.3 against the anticipated 55.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 20:00 GMT, the Business Inventories for October surged to 0.7% against the anticipated 0.6%and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The NAHB Housing Market Index also fell to 86 against the anticipated 88 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added further gains in GBP/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3338      1.3258

1.3213      1.3595

1.3147      1.3719

Pivot point: 1.3404

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

Since the Cable is also a direct currency pair and the dollar is getting weaker, we can expect a continuation of an upward trend in the GBP/USD pair. The GBP/USD pair may find resistance at 1.3600 and 1.3706 level, while the support level stays at 1.3470 marks. The MACD and EMA are supporting the bullish trend in the Cable. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has formed an upward channel, which may keep pushing the Sterling further higher today. The buying trend can be seen over 1.3470 level until 1.3600 and 1.3706 level.


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 103.419 after placing a high of 103.915 and a low of 103.259. The USD/JPY pair extended its losses on Wednesday and reached its lowest since November 9. The USD/JPY pair dropped on Wednesday amid the U.S. dollar weakness due to rising stimulus hopes and growing vaccine optimism. The U.S. lawmakers made progress toward a coronavirus relief package that added weight on the U.S. dollar and dragged the USD/JPY pair on the downside. The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies was down on Wednesday to 0.1% at 90.317. 

The bipartisan group had originally proposed a $908 billion stimulus bill, but it has now been split into two bills. The first bill includes a $748 billion proposal, including aid for vaccine distribution and unemployment benefits. This bill has gained traction and is expected to pass by Congress by the end of the week. The second bill that is worth $160 billion for local and state government support along with the temporary coronavirus liability protection that appears to be having more difficulty in gathering the necessary support from Congress.

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the Trade Balance from Japan for November surged to 0.57T against the forecasted 0.54T and supported the Japanese Yen that added further losses in the USD/JPY pair. At 05:30 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from Japan in December also raised to 49.7 against the forecasted 48.9 and supported the Japanese Yen that added additional losses in USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve kept its interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and said that they would remain the same until the inflation reaches 2-3%. However, Federal Reserve also announces to purchase at least $120 Billion of U.S. treasuries and mortgage-backed securities each month until employment gets better. This way to support the U.S. economy by increasing bond purchases also weighed on the U.S. dollar and dragged the USD/JPY pair on the downside.

From the U.S. side, at 02:00 GMT, the TIC Long-Term Purchases dropped to 51.9B against the forecasted 75.5 B and weighed on the U.S. dollar, and supported the downside movement in the USD/JPY pair. At 18:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales for November decreased to -0.9% against the estimated 0.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and weighed on the USD/JPY pair. The Retail Sales for November also decreased to -1.1% against the estimated -0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. AT 19:45 GMT, the Flash manufacturing PMI for December advanced to56.5 against the estimated 55.9 and supported the U.S. dollar. 

The Flash Services PMI for December decreased to 55.3 against the estimated 55.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and dragged the USD/JPY pair on the downside. At 20:00 GMT, the Business Inventories for October advanced to 0.7% against the estimated 0.6%and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The NAHB Housing Market Index also decreased to 86 against the estimated 88 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added further losses in the USD/JPY pair.

Another factor included in the losses of the USD/JPY pair was the increasing risk sentiment of the market from another coronavirus vaccine. Moderna has also applied for emergency use authorization of its vaccine from the U.S. regulatory FDA that is expected to approve within a week. Moderna will become the second company to get authorization from the U.S. regulator after Pfizer got approval last week and is currently being roll-out. This latest news added in the risk sentiment and weighed on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately weighed on the USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.47      104.02

103.25      104.37

102.91      104.58

Pivot point: 103.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY extends it’s selling trend as the pair trades at 103.250. The safe-haven currency pair is trading below an immediate support level of 103.250, and the closing of candles below this level will confirm the bearish breakout. If this happens, we may have an opportunity to short the USD/JPY pair today. Bearish bias seems solid as the MACD is forming histograms below 0, and the 50 periods EMA is holding around 103.860 level, suggesting strong odds of selling. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair may find next support at the 102.900 level. Let’s consider taking a selling trade below 103.650 today. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 17 – BTC Reaches a New ATH at $22k; XRP Skyrockets as it Breaks its Descending Channel

The cryptocurrency sector experienced an overall major gain as Bitcoin reached its new all-time high. Bitcoin is currently trading for $22.095, representing an increase of 13.82% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 9.69% on the day, while XRP managed to gain a whopping 23.35%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Puriever gained 238.59% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by Combine.finance’s 159.58% and Amun Bitcoin 3x Daily Shorts’ 146.94% gain. On the other hand, BigGame lost 82.62%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by GNY’s loss of 75,95% and Hush’s loss of 61.30%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved up over a whole percent since our last report, with its value currently being 65%. This value represents a 1.1% difference to the upside than the value it had when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector capitalization has increased drastically since we last reported, with its current value being $634.94 billion. This represents a whopping $70.94 billion increase when compared to our previous report.

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What happened in the past 24 hours?

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin has had quite an amazing day, as its price skyrocketed to new all-time highs. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap reached price discovery mode as its price topped at $22,400. While there are no set resistance levels at the moment, we can use Fib retracement extensions to determine where they could form.

At the moment, the Fib extensions sitting at $21,350 and $22,055 are the best contenders to act as support levels to Bitcoin’s eventual downturn.


BTC/USD 4-hour chart

Bitcoin’s daily and weekly overview are fully bullish, while its 4-hour and monthly time-frames show slight neutrality on top of the overall bullishness.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is far above both its 50-period and its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly above its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is heavily overbought (86.76)
  • Volume is far higher than its average levels
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $24,315                                 1: $22,054

2: $24,700                                 2: $21,350

3: $25,511                                  3: $19,918

Ethereum

Ethereum followed the extremely bullish sentiment caused by Bitcoin’s push, reaching a price of $625 before hitting a sell wall. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has held these levels, and is currently consolidating above the $632 level.

An important thing to note is that, while Bitcoin has reached its ATH, Ethereum is very far from it. Ethereum might be a good value investment simply due to its potential to possibly reach towards higher levels on account of pushing towards its ATH.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

While Ethereum shows overall bullish sentiment on all time-frames, every time-frame except the monthly time-frame shows slight neutrality.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is far above both its 50-period and its 21-period EMAs
  • Price is at its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is heavily overbought (78.20)
  • Volume is much higher than its weekly average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $675                                     1: $636.5

2: $738.5                                  2: $632 

3: $817.5                                   3: $600

Ripple

Unlike most days where XRP is having larger moves to the downside and smaller moves to the upside compared to BTC and ETH, the roles are reversed this time. The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has gained almost 25% on the day as its price bounced off of the lower line of the descending channel, and pushed towards the upside, reaching as high as $0.583 before starting its consolidation.

XRP is now trading within a range, bound by the $0.57 resistance and $0.543 support levels.


XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP has changed its sentiment to overall bullishness, with its monthly time-frame showing full tilt towards the buy-side, and the rest of the time-frames showing some neutrality or hints of bearishness remaining.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Its price is currently above both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price slightly below its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is nearing the overbought territory (61.30)
  • Volume is well above its average level
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.57                                     1: $0.543

2: $0.597                                    2: $0.5

3: $0.63                                     3: $0.475

Categories
Forex Technical Analysis

US Dollar Index awaiting FOMC Meeting in the Extreme Bearish Zone

The US Dollar Index (DXY) reached a new yearly low of 90.128, expecting the last FOMC interest rate decision meeting of the year. The analysts’ consensus anticipates the rate unchanged at 0.25% by the FED.

Source: TradingEconomics.com

Technical Overview

The short-term overview for the Greenback illustrated in the following 8-hour chart displays the short-term market participants’ sentiment unfolded by the 90-day high and low range, which shows the price action moving in the extreme bearish sentiment zone. Likewise, the bullish divergence observed on the EMA(60) to Close Index carries to expect a recovery for the following trading sessions.

On the other hand, the short-term primary trend outlined with its trend-line drawn in blue reveals that the bearish bias remains intact since September 25th, when the price topped at 94.742. The secondary trend plotted with the trend-line in green shows the acceleration of the downward movement that began on November 04th at 94.302.

Nevertheless, the breakdown of the last sideways range developed by DXY during the latest trading session, combined with the bullish divergence observed between the price and the EMA to Close indicator, makes us suspect a bounce, which could hit the resistance of the extreme bearish sentiment zone at 91.282.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The short-term Elliott wave view for the US Dollar Index unfolded by the next 4-hour chart exposes the bearish progression of wave ((iii)) of Minute degree labeled in black that belongs to the downward sequence that began on November 04th at 94.302. 

 

According to the textbook, the price action requires to confirm the third wave’s completion before acknowledging the start of the wave ((iv)) in black. In this regard, the internal structure of the wave ((iii)) added to the bullish divergence observed in the MACD oscillator; thus, suggesting the advance in wave (v) of Minuette degree identified in blue.

On the other hand, considering both the alternation principle and that the second wave of the same degree looks simple in terms of price and time, the next corrective structure should be complex in terms of price, time, or both.

In this context, the next DXY path could produce a bounce corresponding to the fourth wave of Minute degree, advancing to the supply zone between 91.014 and 91.200, and even strike the 91.580 level.

In summary, the US Dollar Index looks advancing in the fifth wave of Minuette degree that belongs to the third wave of Minute degree. In this context, the price action could experience a bounce corresponding to the fourth wave of Minute degree, which could move up to 91.850. Nevertheless, if the price surpasses the invalidation level located at 92.107, the Greenback could be showing the start of a reversal of the current bearish trend.

Categories
Forex Videos

Make Money In Forex With Less Risk Counter Trend Trading!

 


How to reduce risk while counter trading a trend

Thank you for joining this Forex Academy educational video.

In this session, we will be looking at how to reduce your risk in a counter-trend set up.

Trading against the trend is inherently risky.  However, as your experience grows as a trader, you will likely start seeing opportunities where trends run out of steam and look right for a reversal.  These kinds of trades can often be extremely profitable if the timing is right. 

Of course, trading any financial asset, but specifically foreign exchange, is almost impossible to correctly find entries and exits which are down to the pip perfect, i.e., identifying an entry or exit of a particular move within a single pip.

This is where it is important to adopt a variable approach to leverage.  Quite often, new traders will simply execute the same amount of leverage per trade, no matter what the circumstances.  So any particular trade, they might open with half a standard lot, or even a full lot, no matter whether they are trading after an economic data release, which might be low impact or a high-impact release such as non-farm payrolls, they keep their trade size the same no matter what, and this can be particularly dangerous and it is a poor aspect of money management.  A variable approach is another string to the bow of becoming a more rounded trader.

This is a 4-hour chart of GBP USD

The majority of the price action as shown during position A in this section from the 24th of November to the 3rd of December has largely been a sideways move while traders wait for the outcome of the Brexit future trade negotiations with the EU. 

Although there was a spike outside of the range at position B, price action reverted back within the original range on the 2nd of December.

There is then a bounce off of the support line and a 200 pip bull run, which breaches the resistance line, and takes price action all the way up to within a pip of the key 1.3500 level.

This is a good opportunity for profit-taking for many traders and a potential double top reversal …….

…from this daily chart of the pair with which was a multi-month as shown during August 2020.

Under these circumstances, we believe there may be a reversal in price action, and we had decided to trade against the trend, believing that it will reverse at this point.  And we initiate a short trade, with reduced leverage than perhaps we might normally use because we are trading against the trend, and then we will layer the trade with market executions or sell limit orders just above our first trade, dependant on risk, and because we cannot predict where the reversal will happen, if at all.

Had this been a real trade, at least two of the orders would have been filled, including the at market order and where there was a reversal of 89 pips, which is a healthy profit.

In this particular instance, we have taken advantage of uncertainty in the market with regard to Brexit, a multi month high, double top scenario, and a key round number 1.3500.  We have reduced our leverage because of uncertainty and the fact that it was a counter-trend reversal trade, which can be inherently risky.  But we have diluted that risk by lowering our leverage and layering the trades over varying exchange rates in close proximity to the key level of 1.3500. Stop losses should be implemented as per your personal risk appetite.    

This style can also be implemented for long trades with similar principles, and the reduced leverage and layering style can be adopted in any trade scenario. 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 16 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.K.Manufacturing PMI Figures Ahead! 

On the news front, eyes will remain on the series of Manufacturing PMI figures from the Eurozone, U.K., and the U.S. Although it’s a low impact event, it may help determine the market sentiment today.

 

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.21522 after placing a high of 1.21687 and a low of 1.21210. Despite the coronavirus related lockdowns, the EUR/USD pair moved higher on Tuesday as the European stock markets traded higher amid the optimism over the ongoing Brexit trade negotiations.

The European Union negotiator Michel Barnier said that securing a trade deal with Britain was still possible. In contrast, European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said that there was some movement over the sticking points.

According to the Times of London, the two sides had made progress on the level playing field, and only the biggest obstacle to a deal has left of differences over fishing rights. However, the hopes increased that some form of a deal could be reached with just days to go before the U.K. leaves the E.U. trading bloc. This optimism kept the single currency Euro higher and supported the upward momentum in EUR/USD pair.

On the data front, at 12:45 GMT, the French Final CPI for November came in line with the expectations of 0.2%. At 15:00 GMT, the Italian Trade Balance for October raised to 7.57B against the forecasted 5.40B and supported Euro and added gains in the EUR/USD pair.

On the U.S. front, at 18:30 GMT, the Empire State Manufacturing Index for December declined to 4.9 against the projected 6.3 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in EUR/USD pair. The U.S. Import Prices in November fell to 0.1% against the projected 0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the upward momentum in EUR/USD pair. At 19:15 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from the U.S. for November rose to 73.3% against the projected 73.1% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Industrial Production in November also surged to 0.4%against the projected 0.3% and supported the U.S. dollar and capped further gains in EUR/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the lockdown restrictions increased in Europe, given the region’s rising number of coronavirus cases. On late Monday, the U.K. government imposed tighter restrictions on London amid the increased infection rates. It cited that these may be partly linked to a new variant of the coronavirus. From Wednesday, Germany will also enter a lockdown that will include the closure of non-essential stores. Netherland also announced a new five-week lockdown, while Italy was considering more restrictions over the Christmas holidays.

Throughout the region, these lockdown restrictions added pressure on the single currency Euro and capped further gains in the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2126       1.2175

1.2099       1.2197

1.2077       1.2224

Pivot point: 1.2148

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The precious metal gold continues to trade bullish at 1,857, having crossed over double top resistance level of 1,857 level. On the higher side, the metal opens up further room for buying until the next target level of 1,865 and 1,875 level. On the lower side, the precious metal gold may find support at 1,848, and below this level, the metal may drop until the 1,832 level. Let’s consider staying bullish over 1,848 today. The 50 periods EMA supports a bullish bias, keeping the EUR/USD pair in a little bit of buying mode. Simultaneously, the MACD and RSI are also supporting a buying trend; thus, we should look for a buying trade over the 1.2175 level to target the 1.2265 level today. 


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

 The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.34635 after placing a high of 1.34688 and a low of 1.32800. The GBP/USD pair was among the best performer on the day amid the speculation regarding the prospect of an imminent Brexit deal.

There were speculations mostly amongst Conservative M.P.s that a Brexit deal was close and might be voted in the House of Commons next Monday and Tuesday. This optimism led the GBP/USD pair higher in the market to post gains for the day.

After posting losses for three consecutive days, the currency pair GBP/USD pair rose by nearly 1% on Tuesday after the speculation that there had been progressing on the issue of a level playing field. The European Union negotiator Michel Barnier said that reaching a trade pact with Britain was still possible. At the same time, European Commission Ursula von der Leyen noted that there was some progress made over the sticking points.

British Pound is highly sensitive to Brexit progress, and any news showing optimism regarding the post-Brexit trade deal with the E.U. will have a great impact on the GBP/USD pair. This was the reason behind the sudden surge in GBP/USD currency pair on Tuesday despite the renewed lockdown restrictions by the U.K. government over London.

The Health Secretary of the UK, Matt Hancock, said on Monday that this week London would return to a strict lockdown as the coronavirus cases have soared in the British capital. Hancock said London would move from England’s Tier 2 – high alert local restrictions to Tier 3 – very high alert on Wednesday noon. 

Under the highest restriction level, all hospitality venues, including pubs, restaurants, and cafes, will close except for takeout and delivery. People will avoid unnecessary traveling and reduce the number of journeys. Residents in London will be restricted from meeting in private gardens or outdoor venues.

Meanwhile, on the data front, at 12:00 GMT, the Average Earnings Index from Great Britain raised to 2.7% against the forecasted 2.2% and supported the British Pound that added gains in the GBP/USD pair. The Claimant Count Change from the U.K. raised to 64.3K against the expected 10.5K and weighed on British Pound. The Unemployment Rate from the U.K. dropped to 4.9% from the expected 5.1% and supported the Sterling that added strength to the GBP/USD pair.

From the U.S. side, at 18:30 GMT, the Empire State Manufacturing Index for December fell to 4.9 against the estimated 6.3 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in GBP/USD pair. The U.S. Import Prices in November dropped to 0.1% against the estimated 0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the upward momentum in GBP/USD pair. At 19:15 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from the U.S. for November surged to 73.3% against the estimated 73.1% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Industrial Production in November also rose to 0.4% against the estimated 0.3% and supported the U.S. dollar.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3338       1.3528

1.3218       1.3595

1.3147       1.3719

Pivot point: 1.3404

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3460 level, facing immediate resistance at 1.3475 and 1.3538 level. While the support stays at 1.3430 and 1.3401 level. The RSI and MACD support the buying trend in the market, while Cable has the potential to stay bullish over 1.3400 today. A choppy session can be expected until the pair violates the 1.3345 – 1.3309 range.


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair closed at 103.647 after placing a high of 104.150 and a low of 103.604. The USD/JPY pair failed to capitalize on its previous daily gains and dropped on Tuesday over the fears of a new variant of coronavirus and the increased lockdown restrictions over the globe.

The safe-haven appeal in the market returned after the U.K. Health Minister Matt Hancock told parliament that a new variant of the coronavirus associated with faster spread had been identified in southeast England. This led to widespread concern as headlines in the newspaper called this new variant “Super covid” and “mutant covid.”

Matt Hancock added that about 60 different local authorities had recorded coronavirus infections caused by the new variant. He also said that the World Health Organization had been notified, and a detailed study by U.K. scientists has started.

The fear of new and improved disease raised the market’s safe-haven appeal as London went into renewed lockdown restriction of Tier-3 level. Along with London, Germany and Netherland also extended their lockdown restrictions. The rising demand for safe-haven assets added strength to the Japanese Yen that ultimately weighed on the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, on the data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Empire State Manufacturing Index for December declined to 4.9 against the anticipated 6.3. It weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further losses in the USD/JPY pair. The U.S. Import Prices in November fell to 0.1% against the anticipated 0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added further in the losses of the USD/JPY pair. At 19:15 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from the U.S. for November rose to 73.3% against the anticipated 73.1% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Industrial Production in November also surged to 0.4% against the anticipated 0.3% and supported the U.S. dollar and capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair.

Furthermore, on Tuesday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. senior official for infectious diseases, predicted that the U.S. could begin to achieve early stages of herd immunity against the deadly coronavirus by late Spring or Summer. 

Fauci said that to see an impact of the vaccine over the coronavirus spread, almost 50% of people would have to get vaccinated. To achieve herd immunity, 75 to 85% of people would have to get vaccinated. 

Herd immunity occurs when enough people become immune to the disease that the spread of the virus from one person to another person becomes unlikely. Fauci pointed to polio and measles as examples of herd immunity. Despite these positive statements from the top health official from the U.S., the USD/JPY pair failed to reverse its direction upward because of traders’ focus on the new variant of coronavirus.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

103.47       104.02

103.25       104.37

102.91       104.58

Pivot Point: 103.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading dramatically bearish, falling below 103.700. This resistance area is extended by a double bottom pattern, which later was violated on the 2-hour timeframe. Below this level, the USD/JPY pair has odds of extending a sell trade until the next support level of 103.211. The 50 EMA and MACD are supporting selling bias. Thus we can expect to sell below 103.700, to target the 103.200 mark. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 16 – XRP Getting Crushed; BTC and ETH Stuck within a Range

The cryptocurrency sector was mostly stable today as Bitcoin kept within its trading range. Bitcoin is currently trading for $19,393, representing an increase of 1.13% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 0.10% on the day, while XRP managed to lose a whopping 8.56%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

XcelToken Plus gained 263.82% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by Amun Bitcoin 3x Daily Long’s 161.53% and rbase.finance’s 129.84% gain. On the other hand, Maximine Coin lost 99.42%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by STEM CELL COIN’s loss of 97.69% and Patron’s loss of 89.45%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved up since our last report, with its value currently being 63.9%. This value represents a 0.4% difference to the upside than the value it had when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector capitalization has decreased slightly since we last reported, with its current value being $564.0 billion. This represents a $4.20 billion decrease when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

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_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin has continued trading within a range between $19,100 and $19,570, possibly hitting a wall of profit-taking institutional traders. Despite the overall bullishness of the market, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap failed to break the $19,666 level or even reach it. This is because of the increasing number of BTC Whales (holders of 10,000 to 100,000 Bitcoin) leaving the market and taking profit as the price approaches the $20,000 mark.

The sheer amount of resistance hovering above $19,500 will make it quite hard for Bitcoin bulls to push towards the all-time highs. In case the aforementioned push doesn’t happen, we can expect a possible dip towards $18,000.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart

Bitcoin’s overview on all time-frames is bullish, with its weekly time-frame being the only one completely bullish. The rest of the time-frames are slightly tilted to the neutral side.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above its 50-period and slightly above its 21-period EMA
  • Price is between its middle and top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (60.06)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $19,100                                 1: $18,600

2: $19,666                                 2: $18,190

3: $20,000                                  3: $17,800

Ethereum

Ethereum has hit a sell wall as well, stopping its upward price movement just below $600 for the third time in 3 days. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is stuck between $581 to the downside and $600 to the upside, which is a very narrow range for long-term trading.

Ethereum will most likely experience a sharp break out of the current range, creating a potential safe trade with set parameters.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s overview on all time-frames is bullish, with its daily time-frame being the only one completely bullish. The rest of the time-frames are slightly tilted to the neutral side.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is slightly above its 50-period and at its 21-period EMAs
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (54.03)
  • Volume is slightly below average when compared to the previous week
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $581

2: $632                                     2: $565 

3: $636.5                                   3: $545

Ripple

XRP has continued its downturn, this time breaking the crucial $0.475 level. Its price has steadily decreased ever since Dec 1, when it could not break $0.683. This steady descent has created a downtrend, which many analysts think is the death of XRP’s price.

However, there is still hope for XRP. Some analysts believe that this is the 4th of 5 waves in a pattern that XRP started creating on Aug 20 and that the next wave will start an uptrend that will propel its price above $1.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP’s longer-term technicals are tilted towards the buy-side, while its short-term technicals are tilted towards the sell-side. While its 4-hour time-frame is completely bearish, its daily overview is slightly more neutral.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Its price is currently well below both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is close to the oversold territory (31.25)
  • Volume is well below its average level
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.5                                      1: $0.475

2: $0.543                                   2: $0.45

3: $0.57                                    3: $0.425

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

EURAUD Advances Supported by the RBA Minutes

Technical Overview

The EURAUD cross advanced on the overnight trading session, expecting the minutes from the last Reserve Australia Bank (RBA) interest rate decision meeting, where policymakers decided to keep unchanged the rate at 0.1% for the second month in a row.

Source: TradingEconomics.com

On the technical side, the following 12-hour chart shows the short-term market sentiment unfolded by the 90-day high and low range, which illustrates the cross consolidating in the extreme bearish sentiment zone

The bullish candlestick formation developed during the recent trading sessions carries to suspect the possibility of a short-term bounce. This bounce could find strike the level 1.62374 that corresponds to the resistance of the extreme bearish zone.

On the other hand, the short-term primary trend plotted in blue shows the bearish bias that remains in progress. The secondary trend also shows the intraday downward acceleration, which dragged the price until 1.60408, where the cross found support. Likewise, the bounce observed on the EMA(60) to Close Index carries to support the possibility of a limited recovery.

Technical Outlook

The short-term Elliott wave view for the EURAUD cross shows the downward progress of the incomplete five-wave sequence of Minute degree labeled in black, suggesting a limited recovery in the following trading sessions.

The next 4-hour chart shows the bearish movement subdivided into a five-wave sequence of Minute degree identified in black. It began on October 20th at 1.68273 and found its temporary bottom at 1.60408 on December 11th.

The previous figure illustrates the price looks advancing in its fifth wave in black, which after the bottom reached on the last Friday 11 session completed its wave (iii) of Minuette degree labeled in blue. In this context, according to the Elliott wave theory, the price action should start to develop a corrective formation, which could find resistance in the supply zone between 1.61786 and 1.62271.

On the other hand, considering that the wave ((iii)) in black looks like the extended wave, the fifth wave could have a limited extension. In this context, the lesser degree structure of the wave ((v)) could pierce slightly below the end of wave (iii) in blue.

In conclusion, the EURAUD cross shows the possibility of a limited recovery, which could strike the supply zone between 1.61786 and 1.62271, where the price could start to consolidate in a sideways range with support at the end of wave (iii) at 1.60408. On the other hand, if the cross surpasses the supply zone, it would indicate further recoveries, and the price could start a bullish rally. Finally, the invalidation level of the current bearish scenario locates at 1.62872.

Categories
Forex Videos

Forex For Beginners – How To Trade EURGBP! Buying The Euro With A No Brexit Trade Deal!

For beginners – How to trade the EURGBP with no trade deal Brexit 

Thank you for joining this forex academy educational video.

Great Britain voted in a national referendum to leave the European Union June 2016.  The  United Kingdom officially left the EU you in January 2020 with a one-year transition period which ends on the 31st of December 2020.

This was to allow the EU and the United Kingdom four years to come up with a future trading solution with regard to laws and arrangements which would allow the United Kingdom to take back its sovereignty, which is what the people of Great Britain wanted.

However, unravelling the years of business ties between the two areas, including laws,  fishing rights,  humanitarian issues,  worker’s rights,  competitive fairness,  financial regulatory alignment, including a whole myriad of rules and regulations has been one of the most complicated issues in modern times.  The affair is turning into an acrimonious divorcAfter the transition period, theThe two sides agreed thod they would work towards having a free trade agreem,ent which would lead to an almost seamless continuation of business.

But the United Kingdom claims that many of the terms and conditions as set out by the European Union in order to grant a free trade agreement to the United Kingdom are seen as not acceptable to the British government.  Some of these conditions are centred around fishing, where the EU wants to continue fishing in British sovereign waters, a so-called level playing field,  where the United Kingdom cannot go out and sign up other trade agreements around the world by undercutting EU member states.  And where the EU has said that any breach by the UK of such a future agreement, or where the EU changes regulations, and the UK does not fall into line, would be penalised by tariffs and which the UK has said this is totally unacceptable.  Ten deadlines have come and passed between the two sides regarding reaching an agreement,  and where currently, at the time of writing,  there are just a few days left to instigate and agreement,  and where both sides are saying this is now very unlikely to happen.

This is a daily chart of the euro to Great British pound pair ,or EURGBP,  and where we can clearly by the blue candlesticks that since the latter part of November 2020, the Euro is gaining in value on the exchange rate.  

Investors believe that the sentiment has changed in the latter stages of November and certainly since the 7th of December, and  where they believe that in the current state there will likely be no deal and therefore because the European Union is economy is much greater than that of the United Kingdom that the Euro will fare better than the pound in the event of a no tariff-free arrangement being reached.

In in the same chart we have highlighted a section A,  where the pound was gaining against the euro since August,  because the market considered that an agreement would be reached.

 

 So how can investors get in on the action and ride the pair hire based on current sentiment?

Firstly, we need to bring the chart down to a smaller time frame, such as the one hour.  Here we can see a defined bull channel, with areas of support at two points and areas of resistance at two points as show by the exchange rate touching the two purple lines, and where we might consider going long at a pull-back to the support line, perhaps somewhere around the X mark.  

By reverting back to our daily chart we can see some potential targets, or areas of resistance, the closest is 0.9294  which was reached in September 2020 and way back in  the middle of March this year, where we have a target/resistance level of 0.9500.

Of course the exchange rate might be a little different by the time you get to view this video, however, should there be a no tariff deal agreement and where the United Kingdom crashes out of the EU on world trade organisation rules, where tariffs will be imposed by either side,  but most likely to be more detrimental to the UK than the EU, you should then be looking for setups such as we have shown today to buy the pair.

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Supported Over 0.7515 Level – Is It Good Time to Buy? 

The AUD/USD pair was closed at 0.75324 after placing a high of 0.75779 and a low of 0.75243. After placing gains for three consecutive days, the AUD/USD pair dropped on Monday despite the market’s risk flows. After rising above the highest level since June 2018, the AUD/USD pair saw heavy technical selling in the market. The pair reached above the 0.75700 level and faced heavy selling pressure as the investors started to take profits from their trades. The profit-taking overshadowed the market’s risk flows, and the pair AUD/USD continued falling on Monday. 

The risk sentiment was improved on Monday due to the latest vaccine rollout in the US and Canada after the UK. The US started giving Pfizer and BioNtech vaccine doses to nurses and health officials on Monday as it provides a 95% efficacy rate against the coronavirus.

The vaccine rolls out raised hopes that the global economic recovery will soon begin as the coronavirus will become less of a threat. This optimism raised the risk sentiment in the market but failed to impress the risk-sensitive Aussie buyers.

The risk sentiment was also supported by the latest hopes that the US coronavirus stimulus bill will be released soon to support the US economy from the coronavirus impact. The US dollar also came under pressure as the coronavirus cases, and the death toll from COVID-19 surpassed 300,000 number. The US dollar weakness could not impress the AUD/USD buyers, and the pair continued its bearish movement on Monday.

Meanwhile, the AUD/USD pair was under pressure on Monday as Biden has said that he will not remove the tariffs on Chinese products by Trump immediately. The President-elect nominated Katherine Tail for the role of US trade representative said on Friday that she was the trade enforcer against China’s unfair trade practices that will be a key priority in the Biden-Harris administration. It was a sign that Donald trump’s trade war will continue, which weighed on the China-Proxy Australian dollar and added losses in the AUD/USD pair on Monday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.7514 0.7570

0.7492 0.7602

0.7459 0.7625

Pivot point: 0.7547

The AUD/USD is trading sideways at 0.7515, but it’s supported by an upward trendline that can be seen in the 2-hour timeframe. On the higher side, the AUD/USD is forming a double top level at 0.7527, which is now extending resistance. The leading technical indicators such as MACD and RSI support the buying trend, while the 50 periods EMA is also supporting the AUD/USD pair at 0.7515. Let’s consider buying over 0.7515 level to capture quick 40 pips. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 15 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.K. Labor Market Figures! 

Investor’s eyes will stay on the French Final CPI and Italian Trade Balance due from the European Economy. Economists are expecting no major changes in these inflation and trade balance data. Thus it may go muted. However, the Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate data from the U.K. is likely to drive market movements. Let’s keep an eye on U.K. labor market figures today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

During Tuesday’s Asian trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair managed to extend its overnight winning streak and sidelined near above the 1.2150 level mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment. That was supported by the upbeat China data and optimism over treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus, which weakens the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributes to the currency pair gains. Moreover, the upbeat market tone was further boosted by the further U.S. stimulus package’s rising expectations, which add further burden around the U.S. dollar and boost the currency pair. 

On the contrary, the ongoing concerns about increasing COVID-19 deaths and the possibility of economically-painful hard lockdowns become the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2149 and consolidating in the range between 1.2143 – 1.2165.

As we already mentioned, the market trading sentiment succeeded in extending its previous day bullish bias and still representing positive performance on the day as the bullish appearance of Asia-Pacific stocks and the gains of the U.S. stocks futures tends to highlight the risk-on mood. However, the risk-on market sentiment could be attributed to the vaccine optimism and upbeat China data, which showed the economic recovery increased in November. On the data front, China’s Retail Sales increased by 5.0% year-on-year in November, marking the 4th-successive month of growth. Industrial Production, a gauge of manufacturing, mining, and utility output, rose 7% year-on-year versus October’s 5.9% growth. 

On the other hand, the renewed optimism over a possible vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease also keeps supporting the market trading sentiment. It is worth recalling that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted permission for emergency use to BNT162b2, the COVID-19 vaccine co-developed by Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (F:22UAy) on December 11. The approval will see the first U.S. deliveries of BNT162b2 later in the day, which lifted hopes that the world’s largest economy will likely see a reduction in the COVID-19 cases. However, the positive developments over the covid vaccine keep favoring the market risk-on mood and undermine the safe-haven U.S. dollar.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its previous day bearish bias and drew further offers on the day as demand for the safe-haven assets decreased amid progress toward agreeing on U.S. fiscal stimulus and optimism for a Brexit deal. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar losses were further bolstered by the Fed’s expectations to keep interest rates low for an extended period at its last policy meeting of 2020. However, the U.S. dollar losses helped the gold prices to deeper its losses as the gold price is inversely related to the U.S. dollar price. The U.S. Dollar Index Futures that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped to 90.642.

On the contrary, the concerns about rising COVID-19 deaths and the possibility of economically-painful hard lockdowns keep challenging the upbeat market performance, which becomes the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains currency pair. As per the latest report, the growing virus cases recall the local lockdowns in the U.K. and the U.S. After New York, that was witnessed readiness to enter a second full lockdown as the number of COVID-19 cases surge. In addition to this, Germany also extended national activity restrictions. Across the ocean, the fears of a full-fledged trade/political war between the West and China also challenge the market’s upbeat mood. The tension between the two biggest economies in the world was fueled after the U.S. imposed back to back travel restrictions over the Chinese Communist Party members and their families.

In the absence of the major data/events on the day, the market traders will keep their eyes on the continuous drama surrounding the U.S. stimulus package. In the meantime, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, will also be key to watch for a fresh direction. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2044       1.2133

1.2006       1.2186

1.1954       1.2223

Pivot point: 1.2096

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The technical side of the EUR/USD is still unchanged as it trades at the 1.2131 level, facing immediate resistance at 1.2160 and 1.2196 level along with a support level of 1.2085. Closing of candles below the 1.2103 level can send the EUR/USD pair further lower until 1.2080 and 1.2040. The 50 periods EMA supports a bullish bias, keeping the EUR/USD pair in a little bit of buying mode. Simultaneously, the MACD and RSI are also in support of a buying trend; thus, we should look for a buying trade over the 1.2175 level to target the 1.2265 level today. 


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

During Tuesday’s Asian trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair maintained its strong bid tone through the first half of the Asian session and remained positive around the 1.3335 level mainly due to the reports suggesting that the U.K. and the E.U. agreed to extend Brexit talks. Furthermore, the bid tone surrounding the British pound was further bolstered after the E.U.’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said that they could face every hurdle to reach a post-Brexit trade deal. 

Across the ocean, the broad-based U.S. dollar fresh weakness, backed by the market risk-on mood, also played its major role in underpinning the currency pair. At a particular time, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3333 and consolidating in the range between 1.3312 – 1.3348. Moving on, the traders seem cautious to place any strong position ahead of the U.K. jobs data, which is due to release later in the day.

It is worth recalling that the U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President announced that they discussed the key issues and decided to go for another round of discussions to reach a historic trade deal, which in turn, raised expectations for a free trade agreement before the end of Brexit transition period on December 31. However, these hopes were further fueled after the E.U.’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, told them to use every way to reach a post-Brexit trade deal.

Despite the prevalent doubts over the global economic recovery from coronavirus (COVID-19), the market trading sentiment managed to extend its previous day’s positive performance. It remained supportive by optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus. Let me remind you that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted permission for emergency use to BNT162b2, the COVID-19 vaccine co-developed by Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (F:22UAy) on December 11. However, the positive developments over the covid vaccine keep favoring the market risk-on mood and undermine the safe-haven U.S. dollar.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its previous day bearish bias and drew further offers on the day as demand for the safe-haven assets decreased amid progress toward agreeing on U.S. fiscal stimulus and optimism for a Brexit deal. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar losses were further bolstered by the Fed’s expectations to keep interest rates low for an extended period at its last policy meeting of 2020. However, the U.S. dollar losses provided an additional boost to the GBP/USD currency pair and remained supportive of the strong intraday positive move. The U.S. Dollar Index Futures that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped to 90.642.

On the bearish side, the concerns about rising COVID-19 deaths and the possibilities of the economically-painful hard lockdowns keep challenging the upbeat market performance, which becomes the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. As per the latest report, the growing virus cases recall the local lockdowns in the U.K. and the U.S. After New York, that was witnessed readiness to enter a second full lockdown as the number of COVID-19 cases surge. In addition to this, Germany also extended national activity restrictions. 

Moving on, the traders seem cautious to place any strong position ahead of the U.K. jobs data, which is due to release later in the day. From the projected view, the U.K. labor market report is anticipated to show that the average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the 3-months to October, to increase from the previous 1.3% to 2.2%, while ex-bonuses, the wages are seen improving from 1.9% to 2.6% during the stated period. 

In addition to this, the number of people asking for jobless benefits is expected to rise from -29.8K previous to +50K in November. Moreover, the ILO Unemployment Rate may rise from 4.8% to 5.1% during the 3- months ending in October. However, the positive earnings growth tends to underpin the GBP; conversely, the low figures would be seen as negative for the GBP currency.

In the absence of the major data/events on the day, the market traders will keep their eyes on the continuous drama surrounding the U.S. stimulus package. In the meantime, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, will also be key to watch for a fresh direction. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3338       1.3466

1.3280       1.3536

1.3209       1.3594

Pivot point: 1.3408

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading at the 1.3330 level, maintaining a narrow trading range of 1.3345 – 1.3309. A lack of high-impact economic data drives the choppy session; however, the market will be offering us labor market figures, which are expected to be worse than before, and it may drive selling in the Sterling. Technically, the bearish breakout of the 1.3309 level can extend the selling trend until the 1.3265 level, whereas a bullish breakout can lead it towards the 1.3409 mark. A choppy session can be expected until the pair violates the 1.3345 – 1.3309 range.


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

During Tuesday’s Asian trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair managed to stop its previous day losing streak and drew some modest bids around well above the 104.00 level. However, the bullish sentiment around the currency pair was supported by the upbeat market mood, which undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen and contributed to the currency pair gains. Apart from this, the latest local lockdowns in the northern hemispheres and the surge in Tokyo’s virus figures added further pressure on the Japanese yen and boosted the currency pair. On the contrary, the broad-based U.S. dollar, triggered by the upbeat market mood, has become the key factor that capped further upside momentum for the currency pair. Currently, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 104.09 and consolidating in the range between 103.98 – 104.15. 

As we already mentioned, market trading sentiment has been gaining positive traction since the day started and supported by the optimism over the U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s victory in the Electoral College. As per the latest report, the U.S. President-elect Joe Biden recently won Electoral College and claimed his victory over President Donald Trump by achieving over 270 votes needed. In addition to this, the intensifying hopes of the U.S. covid stimulus also positively impacted the market trading sentiment. These hopes were triggered after Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi urged policymakers toward an early aid package while also indicating good progress in the discussions. 

Across the ocean, the reason behind the risk-on market sentiment could also be attributed to the upbeat China data, which showed the economic recovery improved in November. On the data front, China’s Retail Sales increased by 5.0% year-on-year in November, marking the 4th-successive month of growth. Industrial Production, a gauge of manufacturing, mining, and utility output, rose 7% year-on-year versus October’s 5.9% growth. 

On the other hand, the renewed optimism over a possible vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease also keeps supporting the market trading sentiment. It is worth recalling that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted permission for emergency use to BNT162b2, the COVID-19 vaccine co-developed by Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (F:22UAy) on December 11. The approval will see the first U.S. deliveries of BNT162b2 later in the day, which lifted hopes that the world’s largest economy will likely see a reduction in the COVID-19 cases. However, the positive developments over the covid vaccine keep favoring the market risk-on mood and undermined the safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen and U.S. dollar.

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar extended its previous session bearish bias. It failed to gain any positive traction during the Asian trading hours amid risk-on market sentiment. Apart from this, the greenback losses could also be associated with the Fed’s expectations to keep interest rates low for an extended period at its last policy meeting of 2020. However, the U.S. dollar losses might stop bulls from placing any strong position and keep a lid on any further gains for the USD/JPY currency pair. The U.S. Dollar Index Futures that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped to 90.642.

However, the market trading sentiment was rather unaffected by the fresh lockdown restrictions in Britain and Europe. As per the latest report, the growing virus numbers recall the local lockdowns in the U.K. and the U.S. After New York, a willingness to enter a second full lockdown as the number of COVID-19 cases surge. In addition to this, Germany also extended national activity restrictions. 

In the absence of the major data/events on the day, the market traders will keep their eyes on the ongoing drama surrounding the U.S. stimulus package. In the meantime, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, will also be key to watch for a fresh direction. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.04       104.41

103.86       104.60

103.67       104.78

Pivot Point: 104.23

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is hardly moving as it continues to trade sideways below the 104.150 resistance area. This resistance area is extended by a double top level on the 2-hour timeframe. Bullish crossover of 104.156 level can open buying until 104.590 level. Conversely, the support holds around 103.910 level. A bearish breakout of this support can drive the selling trend until the next support area of 103.700 and 103.500. Let’s keep an eye on a breakout before placing any bullish or bearish bets. Good luck! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 15 – Bitcoin Whales Stopping the Push Towards $20k; XRP on the Downturn

The majority of the cryptocurrency sector ended up being in the slight green since we last reported, with Bitcoin trying to reach the all-time highs (though so-far unsuccessfully). Bitcoin is currently trading for $19,106, representing an increase of 0.15% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has decreased by 0.32% on the day, while XRP managed to lose 2.97%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

Mandi Token gained 175.35% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by yTSLA Finance’s 169.53% and DefHold’s 129.84% gain. On the other hand, DistX lost 98.32%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by AC Index’s loss of 94.05% and YXO’s loss of 43.16%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved up very slightly since our last report, with its value currently being 63.5%. This value represents a 0.2% difference to the upside compared to the value it had when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector capitalization has increased since we last reported, with its current value being $569.80 billion. This represents a $9.01 billion increase when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin had quite an interesting day as it (at one point) tried to push towards the all-time highs, or at least towards its next resistance level (sitting at $19,666). However, the sheer resistance near the $20k level was immense, and the largest cryptocurrency by market cap dipped to its immediate support level ($19,100), which is where it’s at right now.

The data provided by various sources point to Bitcoin whales blocking the way towards and past $20k, despite all the bullish sentiment currently surrounding the cryptocurrency.


BTC/USD 4-hour chart

Bitcoin’s overview on all time-frames is fully bullish, with its monthly time-frame being slightly more tilted to the neutral side than the rest.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above its 50-period and slightly above its 21-period EMA
  • Price is near its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (55.33)
  • Volume is average when compared to the past week
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $19,100                                 1: $18,600

2: $19,666                                 2: $18,190

3: $20,000                                  3: $17,800

Ethereum

Ethereum was in the same boat as Bitcoin for the past couple of days, with its price movement mirroring Bitcoin’s. Ether tried to move towards the $600 mark, but got stopped out just below it, triggering a pullback to its immediate support level ($581). However, its downside is well-guarded, both by the $581 support level and the 4-hour 21-period moving average.

Ethereum will most likely continue mirroring Bitcoin’s moves in the short future, meaning that traders should either focus on trading Bitcoin or pay close attention to its movements while trading Ether.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s overview on all time-frames is fully bullish, with its weekly time-frame being slightly more tilted to the neutral side than the rest.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is slightly above both its 50-period and 21-period EMAs
  • Price is near its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (53.74)
  • Volume is slightly below average when compared to the previous week
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $581

2: $632                                     2: $565 

3: $636.5                                   3: $545

Ripple

XRP is one of the cryptocurrencies that rarely mirrors Bitcoin’s movements, and that was the case in the past 24 hours as well. However, the fact that its price doesn’t mirror the largest cryptocurrency was bad news lately. XRP’s price continued its slow descent, this time breaking the $0.5 mark to the downside. At one point, there was an attempt to regain this level, which got shut down pretty quickly.

While the overall crypto sector is surrounded by bullish sentiment, XRP is looking quite bearish in the short-term. Shorting the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap can be a valid trading strategy, simply due to its consistency going down in recent days.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP’s longer-term technicals are completely bullish, while its daily overview is slightly more tilted towards neutrality. Its 4-hour time-frame, however, is slightly tilted towards the sell-side.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Its price is currently below its 50-period EMA and slightly below its 21-period EMA
  • Price is between its middle and bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (37.98)
  • Volume is well below its average level
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.5                                      1: $0.475

2: $0.543                                   2: $0.45

3: $0.57                                    3: $0.425

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis

NZDUSD Could Reach a New Yearly High

The NZDUSD pair continues extending its gains, testing the psychological barrier of 0.71, helped by the US Dollar weakness. The Oceanic currency outperforms over 5.4% during the current year. Also, the pair advances over 27% since it confirmed its bottom on March 22nd at 0.55862.

Technical Overview

The big picture of the NZDUSD illustrated in the following 12-hour chart shows the primary upward trend, its trendline plotted in blue, intact since March 22nd when the price confirmed its bottom at 0.55862 and began the rally that remains in progress to date. Likewise, the secondary trend and its green trendline reveal the acceleration of the price testing by the third time the psychological barrier of 0.71.

Considering that the NZDUSD pair currently re-tests the 0.71 level, the price could extend its gains, reaching a new yearly high, to find resistance in the next psychological resistance of 0.72.

Short-term Technical Outlook

The short-term Elliott wave view for the NZDUSD pair unfolded by its 4-hour chart led us to observe an incomplete impulsive sequence of Minute degree labeled in black, which began on October 22nd price found fresh buyers at 0.65529.

The previous chart illustrates the impulsive structure that continues progressing and looks to develop its fourth wave of Minute degree labeled in black. Moreover, in the chart, we should remark that the third wave, which looks like the extended wave of the incomplete impulsive sequence identified in black, has found resistance at 0.71043 on December 03rd. 

Once the price topped the yearly high at 0.71043, the pair began to develop a sideways corrective formation, still progressing. In this regard, considering both the alternation principle stated by the Elliott Wave Theory and that wave ((ii)) in black looks like a simple corrective pattern, the current wave ((iv)) of the same degree should be complex in terms of price, time, or both.

In this scenario, the price action might retrace until the demand zone bounded between 0.69462 and 0.68970, where the Kiwi could find fresh buyers expecting to boost the pair toward a new yearly high. This high could strike the potential target zone between 0.71618 and 0.7260.

In summary, the short-term Elliott wave perspective for the NZDUSD pair reveals the advance in a bullish trend that currently moves mostly sideways in an incomplete corrective formation. The fourth wave in progress could find support in the demand zone bounded between 0.69462 and 0.68970. Likewise, fresh buyers could boost the price toward 0.71618 and extend its gains until 0.7260. Finally, the invalidation level of the current bullish scenario is located at 0.68106.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 14 – BTC and ETH Consolidating After A Bull Rally; XRP Left in the Dust

The majority of the cryptocurrency sector ended up in the green as Bitcoin spent the weekend regaining the value it lost after failing to break its all-time high with confidence. Bitcoin is currently trading for $19,144, representing an increase of 1.69% compared to yesterday’s value. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price has increased by 3.61% on the day, while XRP managed to gain 3.77%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

BDCC Bitica COIN gained 229.29% in the past 24 hours, making it the most prominent daily crypto gainer by far. It is followed by Ethereum Lightning’s 223.18% and Nuggets’ 190.36% gain. On the other hand, rbase.finance lost 72.18%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by COIL’s loss of 48.85% and SBank’s loss of 40.65%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s market dominance has moved up half a percent since we last reported, with its value currently being 63.3%. This value represents a 0.5% difference to the upside compared to the value it had when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The cryptocurrency sector capitalization has increased significantly over the weekend, with its current value being $560.79 billion. This represents a $31.22 billion increase when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has been on fire this weekend, with its price skyrocketing from its recent lows. The uptrend that started on Dec 11 brought its price from $17,600 all the way up to $19,400 before starting to consolidate. The steep ascending trend it created was unsustainable in the long run, so Bitcoin left it and continued trading sideways just above $19,100. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently fighting for this level, with the previous five 4-hour candles holding above the support.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart

Bitcoin’s daily and monthly technicals show slight signs of neutrality on top of its overall bullishness. On the other hand, its 4-hour and weekly technicals are completely bullish.

BTC/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above both its 50-period and 21-period EMAs
  • Price is between its middle and top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (59.17)
  • Volume is slightly below the average level
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $19,100                                 1: $18,600

2: $19,666                                 2: $18,190

3: $20,000                                  3: $17,800

Ethereum

Ethereum has followed Bitcoin’s footsteps and created its own ascending channel, in which it moved from Dec 11 until Dec 13. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has left this channel and started its own consolidation phase right above the $581 support level.

Ethereum’s moves seem like a mirror to Bitcoin’s moves, with slightly more or less intensity. Traders should be extremely careful of sudden moves Bitcoin can make that could disrupt their Ethereum trades.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Ethereum’s 4-hour, daily, and weekly technicals overall bullish but show signs of neutrality or even some bearish indicators. On the other hand, its monthly technicals are completely tilted towards the buy-side.

ETH/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical Factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Price is above both its 50-period and 21-period EMAs
  • Price is between its middle and top Bollinger band
  • RSI is starting to descend after being close to overbought (58.72)
  • Volume is average when compared to the previous week
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $600                                     1: $581

2: $632                                     2: $565 

3: $636.5                                   3: $545

Ripple

XRP performed much worse than Bitcoin and Ethereum over the weekend, with its short-term outlook being quite bearish. The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap ended up losing $13.11% of its value week-over-week, with its price currently sitting at the $0.5 level.

XRP is currently fighting to stay above the $0.5 level, with its past four 4-hour candles managing to do this. Traders may be able to catch a trade in either direction when XRP confirms its position above/below $0.5 on increased volume.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

XRP’s 4-hour and daily overviews are heavily tilted towards the sell-side but still show some neutral indicators. Its longer-term technicals, though, are completely bullish.

XRP/USD 1-day Technicals

Technical factors (4-hour Chart):
  • Its price is currently below both its 50-period EMA and its 21-period EMA
  • Price is between its middle and bottom Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (37.98)
  • Volume is slightly below the average level
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.5435                                 1: $0.5

2: $0.57                                     2: $0.475

3: $0.6                                      3: $0.45

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 14 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – European Events in Highlights!  

On the news side, the market is expected to report a low impact on economic events, which may have a very slight or no effect on the market. The German WPI m/m, Industrial Production, and German Buba Monthly Report will be released from the European economy. Still, I suspect there’s not going to be any significant movement in the market.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

  


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

During Monday’s Asian trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair succeeded in extending its overnight winning streak and remained well bid around the 1.2140 level mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment. That was supported by the optimism over treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus, which tends to weaken the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributes to the currency pair gains. 

Moreover, the upbeat market tone was further boosted by the increasing expectations of a further U.S. stimulus package, which boosted the currency pair. On the contrary, the fresh jump in infections and death toll in Europe keeps fueling the doubts over the Eurozone economic recovery, which becomes the key factor that kept the lid on any additional currency pair gains. The EUR/USD is trading at 1.2134 and consolidating between 1.2116 and 1.2145.

The global equity market has been flashing green since the day started and is supported by the further stimulus package’s renewed possibilities. As per the latest report, the U.S. Congress members are still progressing over the much-awaited stimulus talks. In that way, the latest talks suggest the partition of over $900 billion of aid package with $748 billion and $160 billion likely figures for each bill. Across the pond, the optimism over treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus has also been favoring the market trading sentiment. These hopes were sparked after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) officially authorized the Pfizer-BioNTech covid vaccine for emergency use. Thereby, the upbeat market mood has been playing its major role in underpinning the currency pair.

The broad-based U.S. dollar declined to obtain any positive traction and drew an offer on the day as doubts persist over the global economic recovery from COVID-19. That was witnessed by the U.S. previous week’s downbeat U.S. data. Meanwhile, the risk-on market sentiment also weighed on the U.S. currency. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar losses were further bolstered by the Fed’s expectations to keep interest rates low for an extended period at its last policy meeting of 2020. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar becomes the key factor that kept the currency pair higher. The U.S. Dollar Index Futures that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped by 0.17% to 90.773 by 9:48 PM ET (1:48 AM GMT).

On the contrary, the intensifying coronavirus woes across the globe and intensifying lockdowns restrictions in Europe and the U.S. keep challenging the upbeat market performance and become the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. As per the latest report, the growing virus cases recall the local lockdowns in the U.K. and the U.S. In the meantime, Germany also extended national activity restrictions. Meanwhile, the fears of a full-fledged trade/political war between the West and China also challenge the market’s upbeat mood. The tension between the two largest markets in the world was fueled after the U.S. imposed back to back travel restrictions over the Chinese Communist Party members and their families.

Looking forward, the traders will keep their eyes on the U.S. employment data for November along with Euro German Factory Orders data, which will likely entertain market players amid a light calendar. All in all, the updates surrounding the Brexit, virus, and U.S. stimulus package will not lose their importance. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.2044       1.2133

1.2006       1.2186

1.1954       1.2223

Pivot point: 1.2096

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The technical side of the EUR/USD is trading choppy at the 1.2131 mark, meeting immediate resistance at 1.2160 and 1.2196 marks along with a support mark of 1.2085. Formation of candles beneath the 1.2103 level can send the EUR/USD pair further lower until 1.2080 and 1.2040. Industrial Production and German Buba Monthly Report will remain in highlights. Let’s wait to trade a breakout setup during the European or the U.S. session today. 


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

During Monday’s Asian trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair managed to stop its previous week’s bearish bias and refresh the intra-day high around above the mid-1.3300 level, mainly due to reports suggesting that the UK PM. Boris Johnson and the European Commission (E.C.) President Ursula von der Leyen agreed to extend the Brexit talks for one more week, which eased fears of a no-deal Brexit and contributed to the currency pair gains. On the other hand, the broad-based U.S. dollar fresh weakness, backed by the market risk-on mood, also played its major role in underpinning the currency pair. At a particular time, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3325 and consolidating in the range between 1.3291 – 1.3354.

It is worth recalling that the U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President announced that they discussed the key issues and decided to go for another round of discussions to reach a historic trade deal, which in turn, boosted the sentiment around the British Pound and contributed to the currency pair gans. In contrast, the British PM Johnson repeats, “I’m afraid we’re still very far apart on some issues.” However, this negative statement failed to leave any meaningful impact on the Pound. 

Despite the lingering doubts about global economic recovery and the intensifying tension between the world’s two biggest economies, the market players continue to cheering the optimism over a possible vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease. These hopes were fueled after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) officially approved the Pfizer-BioNTech covid vaccine for emergency use. However, the positive developments over the covid vaccine keep favoring the market risk-on mood. Apart from this, the global equity market was further supported by the further stimulus package’s renewed possibilities. As per the latest report, the U.S. Congress members keep working to give the much-awaited stimulus package ahead of this Friday’s deadline. In that way, the latest talks suggest the partition of over $900 billion of aid package with $748 billion and $160 billion likely figures for each bill. 

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its bearish bias and remained depressed on the day. Moreover, the doubts over the global economic recovery from COVID-19 remains on the card. That was witnessed by the U.S. previous week’s downbeat U.S. data. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar losses were further bolstered by the Fed’s expectations to keep interest rates low for an extended period at its last policy meeting of 2020. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar becomes the key factor that kept the currency pair higher. The U.S. Dollar Index Futures that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped by 0.17% to 90.773 by 9:48 PM ET (1:48 AM GMT).

Conversely, the intensifying coronavirus woes in the U.K. and the U.S. and intensifying lockdown restrictions keep challenging the upbeat market performance and become the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. As per the latest report, the U.S. and U.K. policymakers were forced to impose the local lockdowns once again. In the meantime, Germany also extended national activity restrictions. 

Looking forward, the market traders will keep their eyes on the developments surrounding the Brexit story for some significant direction in the pair. Furthermore, the updates covering the virus and the US-China tussle will also be key to watch.

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

1.3338       1.3466

1.3280       1.3536

1.3209       1.3594

Pivot point: 1.3408

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading at the 1.3313 level, holding below an immediate resistance level of 1.3322. On the upper side, the GBP/USD pair can lead to a 1.3390 level, and support stays at 1.3269, which is extended by a double bottom level. Selling bias seems dominant; therefore, we should be looking for a sell trade only upon the violation of the 1.3265 level. The lagging technical indicators like 50 EMA suggest selling bias. Thus we should look for selling trades below 1.3400 and upon breakout 1.3265 level too.   


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

During Monday’s Asian trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to gain any positive traction. They witnessed some modest selling moves near below the 104.00 level, mainly due to the upbeat market sentiment, which tends to undermine the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributes to the currency pair losses. However, the market trading sentiment was supported by the optimism about the coronavirus treatment and progress in the U.S. stimulus talks. Simultaneously, the market’s upbeat mood weakens the safe-haven Japanese yen, which could be considered one of the key factors that help the currency pair limit its deeper losses. In contrast, Japan’s Tankan data for the 4th-quarter (Q4) marked upbeat figures, which boosted the Japanese yen’s sentiment and contributed to the currency pair losses.  

At the data front, Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for Q4 grew from -27 to -10, against expectations of -15, while the Non-Manufacturing Index increased from -6 market consensus to -5 during the stated period. Moreover, Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook and Non-Manufacturing Outlook also recorded upbeat numbers of -8 and -6 respectively, against -11 and -7 forecasts in that order.

Despite the lingering doubts over the U.S. economic recovery and the escalating tension between the world’s two biggest economies, the market players continue to cheer the optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly dangerous coronavirus infection. These hopes were fueled after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) officially approved the Pfizer-BioNTech covid vaccine for emergency use. In turn, the New York Times got help to say that the White House staff members will be among the first to be vaccinated. However, the positive developments over the covid vaccine keep favoring the market risk-on mood and contributed to the currency losses by undermining the safe-haven U.S. dollar.

Apart from this, the global equity market upticks were further fueled by the further stimulus package’s renewed possibilities. As per the latest report, the U.S. Congress members keep working to give the much-awaited stimulus package ahead of this Friday’s deadline. In that way, the latest talks suggest the partition of over $900 billion of aid package with $748 billion and $160 billion likely figures for each bill. 

This, in turn, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to stop its bearish traction and edged lower on the day. Moreover, the doubts over the U.S. economic recovery from COVID-19 remains on the card, as witnessed by the U.S. previous week’s downbeat U.S. data. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar losses were further bolstered by the Fed’s expectations to keep interest rates low for an extended period at its last policy meeting of 2020. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar becomes the key factor that kept the currency pair lower. The U.S. Dollar Index Futures that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped by 0.17% to 90.773 by 9:48 PM ET (1:48 AM GMT).

The rising tensions between the United States and China keep challenging the market risk-on tone and might suffer the currency pair into deeper losses. It’s also questioning the market risk-on mood could be the intensifying coronavirus woes in the U.K. and U.S., which leads to the intensifying lockdown restrictions. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance

104.04       104.41

103.86       104.60

103.67       104.78

Pivot Point: 104.23

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

During the previous week, the USD/JPY violation of the symmetric triangle pattern at 104.346 faked out as the safe-haven currency pair reversed trade within the same triangle pattern. The current trading range of the USD/JPY pair remains 104.375 – 103.650, and violation of this range can extend the selling trend until the next support area of 103.200 level. Typically, such a triangle pattern can breakout on either side; this, we should be careful before opening any trade. The market is neutral as investors seem to wind up their positions ahead of the December holidays. Good luck

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

BTC/USD Weekly Chart Analysis + Possible Outcomes

In this week’s BTC/USD analysis, we will be taking an in-depth look at the most recent technical formations, as well as look for the possible short-term price outcomes.

Overview

Bitcoin has had quite a volatile week experienced yet another steep decrease in price as a continuation of the bear retracement after the cryptocurrency couldn’t post new all-time highs with confidence. However, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap has recovered from the decline in a matter of days, with its price over $19,000 once again.

While Bitcoin’s fundamentals only grew stronger as more and more institutional investors acknowledge it as a competitor to gold. This trend of large public companies investing in the best-known cryptocurrency has been seen throughout 2020, and many say that this is the sole reason for the current Bitcoin’s run.

Technical factors



Bitcoin is currently in a steep upwards-facing trend, which brought its price from $17,600 all the way to $19,000. While the channel is way too steep to be considered a long-term option, Bitcoin has the option to follow it for a little bit more, possibly riding the way up to the $19,666 major resistance (and a previous all-time high on Bistamp). This will most likely be the pivot point for Bitcoin, which will decide if it will try to tackle the levels above $20,000 or stay below it and seek support near $19,100.

Likely Outcomes

Bitcoin’s currently sending out very bullish signals, but we included a slightly bearish scenario as well, just to make sure all bases are covered.

1: In case Bitcoin heads further up, its price will most likely stop at the major pivot point, which sits at $19,666. This level is the all-time high from 2017 and is a major resistance level. From here, Bitcoin bulls will have to decide whether they will push towards the upside or remain below this level:

  • In case that the price moves further up, its next possible resistance level (there isn’t much resistance above $20,000, so all possible resistance levels will be extensions of the Fib retracements) is most likely to be sitting at around $20,750.
  • In case the price decides to stay below $19,666, we can expect it to move down and look for support at $19,100 or $18,600 levels.

2: If Bitcoin breaks the ascending channel early and pushes towards the downside, its first strong support level is $19,100 (which it will inevitably break if it pushes down and breaks the channel) and then $18,600.

Entering any short trades could be quite risky at the moment due to the bullish momentum Bitcoin has gathered. However, trading above $20,000 is equally as risky as Bitcoin would be entering a zone with no set resistance and support levels. However, entering long traders is certainly a safer option at the moment.

Categories
Forex Videos

Forex Trading Algorithms Part 3-Converting Trading Strategy To EA’s & Elements Of Computer Language!


Trading Algorithms – The Elements of a Computer Language – Part I

 

A computer language is a formal language to convert our ideas into a language understandable by a computer. Along with computing history, languages have evolved from plain ones and zeroes to assembly language and up to the high-level languages we have today.

Assembly language

Assembly language is a direct link to the computer’s CPU. Every assembly instruction of the instruction set is linked to a specific instruction code to the CPU.  

Fig 1. The basic structure of an X86 CPU. Source cs.lmu.edu

The CPU characteristics are reflected in the instruction set. For instance, an X86 CPU has eight floating-point 80-bit registers, sixteen 64-bit registers, and six 16-bit registers. Registers are ultrafast memories for the CPU use. Thus every register has assembly instructions to load, add, subtract, and move values using them. 

Fig 2- Example of assembly language

source codeproject.com

A computer program developed in assembly language is highly efficient, but it is a nightmare for the developer when the project is large. Therefore, high-level languages have been created for the benefit of computer scientists.

The Elements of a high-level language

A modern computer language is a combination of efficient high-level data structures, elegant and easy-to-understand syntax, and an extensive library of functions to allow fast application development.

Numbers

A computer application usually receives inputs in the form of numbers. These come in two styles: integer and floating-point. Usually, they are linked to a name called “variable.” That name is used so that we can use different names for the many sources of information. For instance, a bar of market data is composed of Open, High, Low, and Close. We could assign each category the corresponding name in our program.

Integers correspond to a mathematical integer. An integer does not hold decimals. For instance, an integer division of 3/2 is 1. integers are usually used as counters or pointers to larger objects, such as lists or arrays.

A floating-point number is allowed to have decimals. Thus a 3/2 division is equal to 1.5. All OHLC market data comes in floating-point format.

Strings

A string is a data type to store written information made of characters. Strings are used as labels and to present information in a human-understandable form. Recently, strings are used as input in sentiment-analysis functions. Sentiment analysis 

Boolean

Boolean types represent true/false values. A true or false value is the result of a question or “if” statement. It can also be assigned directly to a variable, such as in

buyCondition = EURUSD.Close[0] > 1.151

In this case, buyCondition is False for EURUSD closes below 1.151, and is True when the close value is higher than 1.151.

Lists 

We usually do not deal with a single number. If we want to compute a 20-period moving average of the USDJPY pair’s Close, we would need its last 20 closes. To store these values, the language uses lists (or arrays in C++). A list is an ordered collection of values or other types of information, such as strings.

Since Lists are ordered, we can refer to a particular element in the list using an index. For instance, if we were to retrieve the candlestick Close two bars ago of the USDJPY, we would ask for USDJPY.Close[2]

Sets

A Set is an unordered collection of elements. Sets do not allow duplication of elements. That means it eliminates duplicate entries. Not all languages have built-in Sets, although it can be made through programming if needed.

Dictionaries

Dictionaries are a useful data type that maps a key to a value. For instance, in Python 

tel = {‘Joe’: 554 098 111, ‘Jane’: 660 413 901} 

is a telephone structure. To retrieve Joe’s phone, we would write:

mytel = tel[‘Joe’]

with mytel holding 554 098 111

As with sets, not all high-level languages have built-in dictionaries, but a savvy programmer is able to create one.

 

In the next video of this series, we will explain the elements for flow control.

 

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Technical Analysis

EURGBP Soars!, More Gains Ahead?

The EURGBP cross soared on Friday session, surpassing the psychological 0.92 barrier, advancing until the target area forecasted in our previous short-term analysis (here.)

Technical Overview

Our previous analysis discussed the completion of the complex corrective formation identified as a double-three pattern of Minute degree labeled in black, which began on last September 11th at 0.92916 and finished on November 11th at 0.88610. Likewise, after the double-three completion, the cross completed the wave B of Minor degree identified in green.

Once the EURGBP found the bottom at 0.88610, the cross began a rally corresponding to wave C. We have seen in our previous analysis the price completed wave ((ii)) at 0.88667 on November 23rd. After this completion, both the breakout of the descending trendline of the second wave in black and the strong bullish long-body candlestick formation developed in the November 27th session confirmed the start of the third wave in black.

Technical Outlook

During the last trading session of the week, the short-term Elliott wave view for the EURGBP cross exposed in the following 8-hour chart reveals the acceleration in its advance, which surpassed the supply zone between 0.92008 and 0.92181, finding resistance at 0.92298.

The impulsive upward movement observed during Friday’s session allows us to distinguish the completion of the wave ((iii)) at 0.92298 and the beginning of the fourth wave of the same degree.

In this context, the current corrective formation identified as wave ((iv)) in black could decline until the previous supply zone between 0.90686 and 0.90446, where the cross could find fresh buyers. Once the fourth wave completes, the cross should advance in a new rally corresponding to wave ((v)), which would be subdivided into a five-wave sequence. The potential target for the end of wave C is within the next supply zone between 0.92568 and 0.92916.

In summary, the EURGBP cross appears moving in an incomplete wave C of Minor degree, which, in its lesser degree count, shows the beginning of the fourth wave in black. This corrective formation could decline until the previous supply zone is located between 0.90446 and 0.90686. The cross, then, could find fresh buyers expecting the continuation of the trend that would push up the price toward the supply zone between 0.92568 and 0.92916.

Lastly, the invalidation level for this bullish scenario can be found at 0.90031.