Categories
Forex Price Action

Significance of Having the Belief in Your Analysis

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of H1-15 combination trading. The price trends from the level of 61.8%. Usually, when the price trends from the level of 61.8%, it does not take that long to make a breakout. However, in this example, we will demonstrate that it may sometimes take longer than our expectations. Let us get started.

The chart shows that the price makes a strong bullish move towards the North. The last candle comes out a bearish inside bar. It indicates that the price may make a bearish correction. The buyers are to wait for the price to produce a bullish reversal candle followed by a bullish 15M breakout at the highest high of the wave to go long in the pair. This is the plan of the game. Let us find out how it goes.

The next candle comes out as a bearish candle as well. The last bearish candle has a long lower shadow. It indicates that the chart may produce a bullish reversal candle anytime soon. The buyers are to wait here with patience.

As expected, the chart produces a bullish reversal candle. The candle comes out as a bullish engulfing candle. The H1-15M combination traders are to flip over to the 15M chart and wait for a bullish 15 candle breaching the wave’s highest high to trigger a long entry.

You may have noticed that the price has been within the level of resistance for several candles. It means the buyers are to keep their eyes on this pair for a long time. Look at the last candle. After so many hours of waiting, the 15M chart produces a bullish candle that closes above the level of resistance. The buyers may trigger a long entry right after the last candle closes. Let us flip over to the H1 chart with Fibo levels on and find out what happens here.

The Fibo level shows that the price trends from the level of 61.8%. This is one of the levels, which usually produces good momentum. In this example, it produces a good bullish momentum after the breakout, but it takes a long time to make the breakout. The H1-15 combination traders’ patience is tested here. The buyers who wait and keep the belief that it may end up producing the signal make money out of this setup in the end. It is not easy, but this is what trading is all about. Having a belief in analysis helps a trader be a better trader.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, June 5 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on U.S. Non-farm Payroll! 

On the news front, it’s likely to be a busy day with most of the focus staying on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting. ECB’s Main Refinancing Rate holds at 0%, and So far, the ECB isn’t expected to change it. However, we need to closely monitor the Press conference as the hawkish or dovish remarks from President Christine Lagarde can drive price action in the EUR/USD pair today. Besides, the dollar may stay supported ahead of the NFP figures coming out on Friday.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair continues to draw bids and hit above the new three-month high of 1.1370 marks as the investors continue to cheer the bigger-than-expected coronavirus emergency purchase program (PEPP) announced by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday to boost the economic recovery. The ECB expanded PEPP by EUR600 billion. On the other hand, the broad-based U.S. dollar modest strength turned out to be one of the key factors that kept a lid on any additional gains in the pair, at least for now. The EUR/USD is trading at 1.1368 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1325 – 1.1377. However, the traders seem cautious to place any strong position ahead of the German Factory Orders.

At the data front, the German Factory Orders are scheduled to release at 06:00 GMT, which is expected to drop by 19.7% month-on-month in April, having fallen 15.6 in March. On an annualized basis, the industrial orders dropped by 7.4% in April. 

Despite the predictions of a sharper drop in the Factory Orders, the shared currency continues to draw bids, backed by the hopes of coronavirus emergency purchase program announced by the European Central Bank (ECB).

On the other hand, the IHS Markit’s German Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing was revised downwards to 36.6 in May from the preliminary figures of 36.8, even after it improving slightly from April’s 34.5. The Germany manufacturing sector continued to weaken last month, possibly due to the weakening demand triggered by the coronavirus pandemic. Manufacturing production was already down 7-8% from a peak in late 2017 even before the onset of the pandemic, and now that figure looks to be in the region of 25-30%,” IHS Markit reported.

The decline in the German Factory Orders by the big margin could push the EUR/USD currency pair lower below 1.1300. As well as, if the U.S. dollar takes bids on the worsening market mood, the currency pair extend further declines towards 1.1243 (5-DMA). For now, the traders are waiting for the U.S. NFP data tp drive market movement. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.157
  • R2 1.1466
  • R1 1.1402

Pivot Point 1.1298

  • S1 1.1233
  • S2 1.113
  • S3 1.1065

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD continues to trade bullish around 1.1360, heading towards the next resistance level of 1.1450 level. The European Central Bank policy decision drove a recent jump in Euro, and now the U.S. NFP will be taking over the game during the U.S. session. So, we can expect EUR/USD to face a strong hurdle around 1.1450 level along with support level around 1.1247. The 50 EMA is suggesting bullish bias along with the MACD indicator, which is holding and forming histograms over the 0 level. Let’s look for buying positions above 1.1298 level today and selling below 1.1458. 


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.25957 after placing a high of1.26331 and a low of 1.25005. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair rose for the 6th consecutive day on Thursday and peaked since April 30 after posting 0.5% losses on that day. The GBP/USD pair first dropped and lost ground in early trading session but managed to find support and ended its day with a bullish bias.

The selling bias in GBP was due to a lack of progress in the current round of Brexit negotiations on the future relationship. The 4th round of talks will end on Friday, and more chances for no-deal persists in the market as hopes for mutual concessions on fisheries and trade came and went throughout the talks.

However, the U.K. risk of falling to world trade organizations rule instead of having a deal with E.U. has been increased as BoE issued notice to be prepared for the worst-case scenario I,e no-deal Brexit. These fears amongst investors related t no-deal Brexit also kept the British Pound under pressure on Thursday and caused the early drop of GBP/USD pair.

Another factor involving in the downward movement of GBP/USD pair in the early trading session was the poor than expected Construction PMI from the U.K., which dropped to 28.9 in May from 29.5 of expectations and weighed on GBP.  

But in later sessions after the release of American economic data, the pair started to rise again and started following its previous day’s trend. At 17:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims for last week were reported as 1.88M from the U.S. against the expected jobless claims as 1.82M and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Revised Nonfarm Productivity for the quarter dropped to -0.9% against the forecasted -2.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. 

At 19:30 GMT, the Trade Balance also showed a deficit of 49.4B against the expected deficit of 41.5B in April and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

The weakness of the U.S. dollar on Thursday gave a push to GBP/USD, and it started to move in an upward trend again. On the other hand, racial tensions in the U.S. were calmed a bit after the three additional police officers involved in the murder of George Floyd were filed with charges. However, the unrest was primarily ignored by the market participants despite its potential impact on the U.S. elections.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2787
  • R2 1.271
  • R1 1.2652

Pivot Point 1.2576

  • S1 1.2518
  • S2 1.2442
  • S3 1.2384

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the GBP/USD continues trading bullish to reach at 1.2650 levels, having violated the triple top level on the 4-hour timeframe. The GBP/USD pair has formed an upward regression trend channel, which is supporting further buying in the Cable. 

Continuation of a bullish trend can lead to GBP/USD prices towards the next resistance level of 1.2690 level. Above this, the next resistance holds around 1.2765 level. Conversely, the support is likely to be found around 1.2605 and 1.2550 level today. Let’s look for buying over 1.2605 level ahead of NFP data today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 108.899 after placing a high of 108.980 and a low of 108.420. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair extended its previous day’s gains and rose above 108.900 level pacing a high since April 9 on the back of increased risk appetite. The risk-on market sentiment weighed on safe-haven Japanese Yen and pushed the USD/JPY pair above multi week’s highest level.

The U.S. dollar index slipped to its three-month low level due to increased global risk sentiment after the hopes for faster recovery increased due to easing lockdown restrictions. The DXY fell to 97.19 low from 97.63 on the day. Despite the drop in the U.S. Dollar Index, the pair USD/JPY managed to post gains on the back of the strong U.S. equity market.

On the other hand, China’s headlines stopped buying U.S. farm goods and were proven false after the reports suggested that Chinese state-owned firms bought U.S. soybean cargo this week. This raised the optimism that US-China worries would become less. It was also supported by the comments from U.S. Senator Grassley, who said that the US-China trade deal was on track.

Meanwhile, at 17:15 GMT, the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for May showed a decline in the number of jobless people to 2.76M from the forecasted 9.0M and helped the U.S. dollar to gain traction. At 18:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI from the U.S. came in line with the expectations of 37.5. At 19:00 GMT, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI showed a surge to 45.4 from the expected 44.2 for May and supported the U.S. dollar. The Factory orders in April were declined by 13% against the expected decline of 13.7%. Let’s brace for the U.S. Nonfarm payroll data today. 

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 109.93
  • R2 109.56
  • R1 109.35

Pivot Point 108.98

  • S1 108.76
  • S2 108.4
  • S3 108.18

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Friday, the USD/JPY bullish bias continues to drive buying to lead the pair towards 109.350 level. The USD/JPY pair is now breaking above 109.280 level, and above this, the next target is likely to be found around 110. The 50 EMA and MACD both are supporting the buying trend in the USD/JPY pair, and it can lead the USD/JPY prices further higher today. On the lower side, the support holds around 108.640, but the recent bullish engulfing candle and upward price action in the safe haven pair can drive further buying in the USD/JPY pair. Let’s look for buying over 109 levels today. All the best for today! 

 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jun 05 – Hackers Target US Universities After “Kidnapping” a Whole Town; BTC Used as Ransom

The crypto market has spent the day with low volatility as it was trying to consolidate.  Bitcoin is currently trading for $9,778, which represents an increase of 1.31% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 0.16% on the day, while XRP lost 0.7%.

Wax took the position of today’s biggest daily gainer, with gains of 62.34%. Zilliqa lost 8.4% of its daily value, making it the most prominent daily loser.

Bitcoin’s dominance increased slightly since we last reported, with its value currently at 65.14%. This value represents a 0.07% difference to the upside when compared to yesterday’s value.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization increased slightly as most cryptos gained some value when compared to yesterday. The market’s current value is $277.65 billion. This value represents an increase of $2.3 billion when compared to the value it had yesterday.

What happened in the past 24 hours

NetWalker attacking US universities with ransomware

A ransomware gang called NetWalker claims to have successfully attacked three large US universities within the last seven days. They say that their latest attack was aimed against the University of California San Francisco, while that they also attacked Michigan State University and Columbia College of Chicago.

NetWalker threatened to leak all the sensitive data they have acquired in less than a week if they don’t receive a crypto payment in Bitcoin. The information came from Michigan State, Columbia College of Chicago, and UCSF themselves.

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has spent the day slowly testing its support and resistance levels. After breaking the $9,735 to the upside but failing to conquer $9,870, Bitcoin started to drop in price and retest $9,735 as a support level. It has held up quite nicely so far, with no indications of BTC falling below it with this volume.


Bitcoin’s volume reduced drastically when compared to the past week, while its RSI is at 58.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $9,870                                           1: $9,735

2: $10,010                                         2: $9,580

                                                           3: $9,250

Ethereum

Ethereum had a great little run towards the upside yesterday, passing the $240 level and trying to consolidate above it. The consolidation has continued since, with Ethereum successfully getting $240 as a support level. The 4-hour 21-period moving average seems to be holding the price above the level as well.


Ethereum’s volume drastically reduced and is almost non-existent, while its RSI level is at 56.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $251.4                                            1: $240

2: $260                                              2: $225.4

                                                           3: $217.6

Ripple

XRP didn’t perform its consolidation, as well as Ethereum, did after a good run towards the upside they had. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap fell under the $0.205 level after testing its strength as a support level. However, the current increase in volume indicates that XRP might get above it once again.


XRP’s volume was mostly lower than yesterday, while its RSI level is at 50.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $0.205                                           1: $0.2

2: $0.214                                           2: $0.19

 3: $0.227                                                        

 

Categories
Forex Options

FX Options Market Combined Volume Expiries for 5th June 2020

Thank you for visiting the Forex Academy FX Options market combined volume expiries section. Each day, where available, we will bring you notable maturities in FX Options of amounts of $100 million-plus, and where these large combined maturities at specified currency exchange rates often have a magnetic effect on price action, especially in the hours leading to their maturities, which happens daily at 10.00 AM Eastern time. This is because the big institutional players hedge their positions accordingly. Each option expiry should be considered ‘in-play’ with a good chance of a strike if labelled in red, still in play and a possible strike if labelled in orange and ‘out of play’ and an unlikely strike if labelled in blue, with regard to the likelihood of price action meeting the strike price at maturity.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

FX option expiries for June 5 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.

– EUR/USD: EUR amounts

  • 1.1235 900m
  • 1.1250 892m
  • 1.1300 600m

The EURUSD pair is overbought on the one hour chart but we are in uncharted waters up at this multi-month high of 1.1370 at the time of writing. Potential for a pullback/consolidation phase as the market takes stock of these new levels and general weakness in the US Dollar. Yesterday’s saw a flat refusal to pull under the 1.1200 key round number for the pair. The next big test will be US Non-Farm payrolls and associated data release before the New York Cut at 10 AM. Eastern time. Until then the 1.1300 maturity is in play.


– USD/JPY: USD amounts         

  • 108.80 1.0bn

USDJPY is in a bull trend which remains true of yesterday’s analysis where we suggested the price action had more upside to run. Price action is subdued and the one hour chart is overbought. US data out later applies just as much here also. The maturity at 108.80 looks unlikely but is only 46 pips away from the current price action. Watch for a break under the lower trend line to confirm downside and a break in the trend to the maturity.


– USD/CAD: USD amounts

  • 1.3400 969m
  • 1.3500 2.3bn

USDCAD is in a descending wedge formation with pressure building to the downside. The narrow trading range of late tells us the market is unsure of directional bias. Overall US dollar weakness is the main driving factor in the strength of the Loonie. Again, US and Canadian employment data due out before the New York cut will define the next trend in price action. The 1.3400 maturity looks the most likely candidate in current conditions.

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As you can see on the charts we have also plotted the expiration levels at the various exchange rate maturities and we have also labelled in red, orange and blue. Therefore, if you see option expiry exchange rates labelled in red these should be considered in-play, because we believe there is a greater chance of the expiry maturing at these levels based on technical analysis at the time of writing. There is still a lesser possibility of a strike if they are in orange and so these are ‘in-play’ too. However, if we have labelled them in blue, they should be considered ‘not in-play’ and therefore price action would be unlikely to reach these levels, which are often referred to as Strikes, at the time of the 10 AM New York cut.

Our technical analysis is based on exchange rates which may be several hours earlier in the day and may not reflect price action at the time of the maturities. Also, we have not factored in economic data releases or keynote speeches by policymakers, or potential market volatility leading up to the cut.

Although we have added some technical analysis we suggest you take the levels and plot them onto your own trading charts and incorporate the information into your own trading methodology in order to use the information to your advantage.

Remember the higher the amount, the larger the gravitational pull towards the exchange rate maturity at 10:00 AM Eastern time.

If you want to learn how forex option expiries affect price action in the spot FX market see our educational article by clicking here: https://bit.ly/2VR2Nji

DISCLAIMER: Please note that this information is for educational purposes. Also, the maturities will look more or less likely to become a strike at 10 AM NY time due to exchange rate fluctuations resulting in a different perspective with regard to technical analysis, and also due to upcoming economic data releases for the associated pairs.

Categories
Crypto Daily Topic

The Bart Simpson Phenomenon and Tuesday’s Baffling Bitcoin Drop

On Tuesday, Bitcoin looked like it would finally surge past the hotly-anticipated $10,500. However, the coin ended up plummeting by more than $800 in under only 5 minutes. The sell-off started at 9:45 a.m. ET, when the cryptocurrency was changing hands for$10,137. By 9.49 a.m., the price had dipped to $9,298. At the time of writing, the currency is trading at $9,643.51.

Price Manipulation? 

The 4-hour chart, during the period leading up to the drop, as well as the hourly, had formed what’s called the ”Bart Simpson” pattern. This pattern usually indicates probable manipulation caused by whales and institutional players. The pattern occurs when an asset rapidly shoots up or down,  followed by a sideways movement, then a violent move in the opposite direction.

What’s the Bart Simpson Pattern? 

This price action resembles the famous cartoon character Bart Simpson’s head. The name is one of many eccentric memes created by the crypto community. 

The Bart Simpson pattern phenomenon made its debut in 2018 when the Bitcoin market became a bit subdued. Volume and liquidity began to decrease due to declining interest in the cryptocurrency. 

Due to the current uncertain Bitcoin market (more on that later), the low liquidity and low volume trading environment create the perfect recipe for Bart Simpson charts to start appearing again. 

The Bart patterns also sometimes appear in the inverse, with the zig-zag formation occurring at the bottom of a sudden price move before reversing back upward.

Bart Simpson patterns are somehow unique to the Bitcoin and crypto market. And although hilarious, they are a bad sign for the market. Ordinary investors and traders mostly get burned, while big players such as whales and institutional investors go home with huge profits.

What leads to the Bart Simpson Pattern?

There’s consensus in some quarters that the pattern occurs due to a lack of liquidity in the Bitcoin market.

After the 2017 bull run, big investors liquidated their positions, with the majority of them not returning to the market. This led to the price crashing from 5 digits to 4 digits. Pump-and-dump schemes also became commonplace, and whales could sway prices with big enough orders. Add this to the sometimes artificial prices caused by trading bots – which have become popular more than ever.

Do Bart Simpson Patterns Appear in the Traditional Finance Market? 

The answer is yes, and no. Since early 2018, the cryptocurrency market started a downward trend. In January, the total crypto market capitalization was at an all-time peak of $800 billion. Through the following months, this steadily decreased. On October 23, 2018, 54% of the total market cap of the entire crypto market was Bitcoin’s. This is comparable to the market cap of companies such as McDonald’s and IBM. As you can see, it’s difficult to compare the traditional market with the crypto market, especially due to the mostly poor participants and emerging factors like regulation of the crypto market. 

Also, a market where participants can make massive orders provides a fertile playground for price manipulation. In the crypto market, investors can enter such orders due to the lack of regulation. Also, there are looser thresholds for entering the crypto market. Plus, the execution of trades in the traditional markets is more rational and controlled. For instance, there are ‘circuit breakers’ and other mechanisms that put a halt to trading as soon as certain thresholds have been reached.

There’s also the existence, in the traditional market, of financial intermediaries that help traders achieve optimized trading that does not affect prices, avoiding Bart Simpson patterns.

How Bart Simpson patterns Affect The Market

Bitcoin ETFs: Events like these, together with similar ones, are partly why the Securities Exchange Commission refuses to approve Bitcoin ETFs. The truth is that the total market is still unstable and can be easily manipulated. In a way, the crypto market is the whales’ playground. They can send the prices up or down whenever they so wish.

Miners: Price manipulation that results in Bart Simpson patterns affects miners. When prices go down, profitability does too. The money they make might not be enough to cover their costs.

Tips to Survive Bart Simpson Patterns

  • If your goal is to go long in the medium-term or long-term, these patterns will affect you less
  • If you are a short-term trader, you may consider having stop-loss orders
  • If you notice a sudden move followed by a consolidation, know that the price can quickly move the other direction

Difference on BitMEX

BitMex recorded the lowest drop, with the currency dropping to $8600. Bitstamp hit a low of  $9135. The majority of the lows were between $9350 – $9100. The dramatic difference in Bitmex could have been due to slippage and cascading liquidations. The crash caused $100 million long liquidations on the exchange.

Bitcoin’s $10,500 Surge Is Rejected Again 

This was the third time in recent months when buyers failed to take the price past the $10,500 mark. The crypto has struggled to break past the resistance level three times the past eight months. 

The number one cryptocurrency hit $10, 500 in October 2019. In 4 weeks, it had dropped to $6, 400. In February this year, the crypto attempted to surpass the level again. But it took a violent dip to $8,400, before falling even further to $3,600 in the following four weeks. 

After its failure to cross the same level for three consecutive times, Bitcoin’s investors and enthusiasts are asking themselves if the coin will break anytime soon. Many are wondering if BTC will initiate a bull trend and test even higher resistance levels of $11,500 and above. The question is even more pertinent when you consider the intensity of the falls, and how the market has shaped up generally in recent months. 

Categories
Forex Signals

EURCAD Piercing Pattern and Breakout

EURCAD has been moving in a slightly descending channel, here shown as a linear regression channel.  The last iteration of the Price drove it from the top of it to near the bottom. There, it made a double bottom figure and headed up again. After being rejected by the central regression line (dotted line), the Price retraced slightly, then, four hours ago, The Price made a piercing candlestick followed by a large candlestick that went above the last high.

A trade can be made with the entry at 1.5191, a stop below the recent low (1.5110), and a profit target neat the last high of 1.5374. for a reward/risk ration of over 2.

The technical factors ate in favor of the trade. The price moves above the +1 sigma line of the Bollinger bands, and the bands are heading up. Also, the Stochastic oscillator has triggered a buy signal near the oversold level.

The Setup

Buy Entry: 1.5191

Stop-loss:1.5110 or lower

Take-profit: 1.5374

Reward/Risk: 2

Dollar risk: $575 on one lot. $57.5 on a mini lot, and $5.75 on a micro lot

Dollar reward: $1,150 on a lot.

It is recommended not to go above 1 percent of your balance in a single position. Thus, traders should not take more than two micro lots for every $1000 in their trading account.

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Choppy Session Continues – Brace for Breakout! 

The USD/CAD was closed at 1.34942 after placing a high of 1.35722 and a low of 1.34798. Overall the movement of USD/CAD remained bearish throughout the day. The USD/CAD pair posted losses for the 3rd consecutive day on Wednesday amid the weakness on the US dollar due to risk-on market sentiment. The reopening of economies has boosted the expectations of faster economic recovery and provide confidence to the investors that central banks and governments were there to underpin the global economy.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the US dollar against the basket of six currencies, fell to its lowest since mid-March at 97.19, which ultimately dragged the USD/CAD pair with itself.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada held its interest rates at 0.25%, which BoC said is as low as it will go. According to Bank, the Canadian economy appeared to have avoided the worst-case scenario of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Bank also started a number of debt & bond-buying programs in order to make sure that there will be enough cash in the system. Bank announced on Wednesday that it was still buying government bonds to make sure banks have enough money to lend to creditworthy borrowers. Bank also stated that the measures taken to reduce the coronavirus crisis’s effect on improving market conditions were having their intended effect. The Bank said that it was ready to adjust these programs if the market conditions suggest so.

According to the Bank, the effect of coronavirus has likely peaked, and the expectations of second-quarter contraction could be 10-20% rather than the predictions made beforehand. On the US front, despite upbeat market data, the US dollar remained under pressure due to increased risk-on sentiment, which added in the downfall of the USD/CAD pair on Wednesday. On the crude oil front, the WTI Crude prices surged above $38 level and supported commodity-linked currency Loonie. 


The negative figure of crude oil inventories from the United States as -2.1M rose Crude oil prices and helped Loonie to find traction in the market. The strong Loonie dragged the pair USD/CAD further, and hence pair dropped for the 3rd consecutive day. However, the upbeat economic data from the United States about the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI gave strength to the US dollar and kept a lid on additional losses of pair USD/CAD.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3457 1.3552

1.3420 1.3610

1.3362 1.3647

Pivot point: 1.3515

On the technical side, the USD/CAD is trading sideways within a narrow trading range of 1.3550 – 1.3485. Breakout of this range will drive further trends in the USD/CAD pair. The bearish breakout of 1.3485 support level can open up further room for selling until the next support area of the area of 1.3395. The bullish breakout of 1.3550 level can lead the USD/CAD prices to be higher until 1.3625 and 1.3700 level, which marks 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. Let’s keep an eye on 1.3485 level to stay bullish or bearish below this level today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Videos

Forex – Predicting Interest Rate Changes For Maximising Profit!

Predicting Interest Rate Changes to Improve FOREX Profits

One of the biggest factors influencing the foreign exchange market is interest rate changes that are made by some of the eight global central banks.
These changes are acting as indirect responses to other economic indicators, and they can potentially move the market sharply and immediately. As surprise rate changes almost always have a great impact on traders, understanding how to react to or even predict these volatile moves can lead to higher profits.

How Rates Are Calculated

Each central bank’s board of directors has control over the monetary policy of its country. This includes control over the short-term interest rate at which banks borrow from one another. Central banks often hike rates in order to curb their inflation, while they cut rates to encourage lending as well as to inject money into the economy.

Typically, the Central bank will decide what to do by examining the most relevant economic indicators; such as:

The Consumer Price Index
Consumer spending
Employment levels
Housing market
Subprime market

Predicting Central Bank interest Rates

A trader can estimate the rate change range by examining these indicators themselves. Typically, as the aforementioned indicators improve, the rates will need to be raised or (if the change is small) to stay at the same level. On the other hand, any significant drops in these indicators should be a sign of a possible rate cut to encourage borrowing.

Major announcements are another way central bank leaders can let people know how the rates will change. Whenever a board of directors from any central bank is scheduled to talk publicly, the news on how the particular Central bank views the current economic position will be revealed.

Traders can also estimate rates by averaging forecasts made by financial institutions, though this estimate would be second-hand and, therefore, less reliable.

Surprise Rate Changes

No matter how calculated a trader is, Central banks can, without any prior notice, deliver a surprise rate change. However, this may not be such a bad thing as the effect on the market is sharp, immediate, and most notably:

PREDICTABLE.
If there is a rate hike, the currency will almost always appreciate. Traders should act quickly and buy the currency as soon as possible. On the other hand, interest rate cuts indicate a currency going down in price, and traders should sell or short. Trading trend reversals is also a viable strategy, as the market will most likely overextend while performing a sudden and intense move.

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

Best Way of Trading The ‘Rectangle Chart Pattern’

Introduction

The ‘Rectangle’ is a classical technical analysis pattern described by horizontal lines showing support and resistance levels on the price chart. This pattern resembles the concept of buying at A significant support level and selling at a predominant resistance level. The price can stay between the Rectangle pattern for a long time, or the pattern can be very small.

The appearance of this pattern implies that the supply and demand of the currency pair are in balance for an extended period. The price action finds resistance at the top of a rectangle and support at the bottom of a rectangle. The pattern can easily be recognized and confirmed after the formation of two highs and two lows. These highs and lows form two parallel lines above and below the price action. These lines act as a strong support and resistance levels to the price action.

Keep in mind that this pattern doesn’t have a bullish or bearish bias. It is a neutral pattern that shows both parties are holding an equal amount of power. Using this pattern, we can trade with the trend, or it can be used to trade the counter trend and reversals also. In short, the Rectangle chart pattern is both continuous and reversal as well. However, technical experts believe that using the Rectangle as a continuation pattern has higher odds of performing.

Trading The Rectangle Chart Pattern

Example 1

The Rectangle pattern can be easily found on the price charts, and it mostly appears on all the trading timeframes. The below chart indicates the formation of the Rectangle chart pattern on the AUD/NZD daily chart.

As discussed, there is no such thing as a bullish or bearish Rectangle pattern. When we find this pattern on any timeframe, all we need to do is to trade with the trend. We can also trade the Rectangle pattern, just like how we trade ranges.

The image below represents the same Rectangle chart pattern that is shown in the above figure but on the 240 Minutes timeframe. The orange box represents a couple of buy and sell opportunities, but we have decided only to trade this pattern with the trend. The green arrows represent our buying entry in the pair.

The below chart represents our entry and exit in the AUD/NZD Forex pair. The green arrow represents our entry in this pair, and the stop-loss is placed just below the orange box that represents the formation of this pattern. The placement of stop-loss depends on you. If you are an aggressive trader, place the stop-loss just below the entry, and the conservative traders must go for more profound stop-loss.

The take-profit placement is an art as we can exit our positions in many correct ways. You can make use of technical indicators to close the positions. When the trend loses its momentum, use the support, resistance area to close your positions. In the above example, we can see the reversed deeply as soon as we exited our position. This is because that is the place where the significant resistance line is.

Example 2.1

On the daily chart of the AUD/NZD, the below image represents the formation of two rectangle chart patterns in a downtrend.

The below image is the same rectangle pattern (1st) that is shown in the above chart but on a lower timeframe, which is 240 Minutes chart. Most of the time, we will find the Rectangle patterns in a trending market only. Also, this pattern represents the pullback phase of an ongoing trend. Another thing that a Rectangle pattern implies is that both of the parties hold equal power during the pullback phase. That is the reason for this pattern to form in the first place.

So be careful while trading this pattern because, in the consolidation phase, markets often throws a couple of spikes on the price chart. The safest way of trading this pattern is when the price action approaches at the upper area of the Rectangle. In the below chart, the Red arrow represents our selling trade in this pair.

The below chart represents our entry, exit, and risk management in this pair. The entry was at the top of the box. If you compare the stop-loss with take-profit, it clearly shows that we have opted for a smaller stop-loss, it was because the upper line of Rectangle acts as a primary resistance line. If the price action breaks the resistance line, the pattern by default gets invalid, and there is no need to hold our position. Around our take profit area, the price action started struggling, which indicates the power. Hence we decided to close our position.

Example 2.2

The below AUD/NZD Forex chart represents the formation of a Rectangle chart pattern on the 240 minutes chart. The pattern that you see below has appeared right after the previous trade that is discussed above. At times we will see these patterns consecutively, especially in a strong trending market. It is strongly recommended to go with the flow and trade them with confidence. The chart below shows that the price action spends some time in the rectangle box, and when it hits the bottom of the Rectangle, we activated our selling trade in this pair.

The chart below represents the entry, exit, and take-profit in this pair. As we can see, the entry was at the bottom of the Rectangle, and the stop-loss placement was above the Rectangle. For take-profit, we have waited for the sellers’ momentum to die out to close our trade.

Conclusion

For a Rectangle pattern to be valid, the price must have gone through at least two tops and two bottoms on the price chart. Always make sure to hold your trade till the market loses its momentum. You can also look for the formation of any candlestick patterns to exit the trades. If you activate your trade at the top of the Rectangle, make sure to place the stop-loss just above the Rectangle pattern. If the activation was after the breakout, place the stop-loss in the middle of the Rectangle range.

We hope you understood the trading of the Rectangle chart pattern. In case of any queries, let us know in the comments below. Cheers.

Categories
Forex Daily Topic Forex Fundamental Analysis

The Importance of ‘Fiscal Expenditure’ as a Macro Economic Indicator

Introduction

Fiscal Expenditure is one half of the Fiscal Policy that will shape the economic growth for the fiscal year. It is a closely watched statistic by traders and investors to analyze the policy maker’s behavioral trends, actions, and corresponding economic consequences for the current fiscal year.

What is Fiscal Expenditure?

Fiscal Policy

It is a strategy or scheme followed by the Government to manage its tax revenues and allocate those funds appropriately as Government spending to manage economic conditions for a fiscal year. Fiscal Policy is the action plan of a Government that decides how the inflow of the Government from tax revenue is channeled into different Government Spending programs. Fiscal Policy is analogous to Monetary Policy.

Monetary Policy is an economic lever used by the Central Bank of a nation using Money Supply and Interest Rates to influence the economy. Whereas, Fiscal Policy is an economic lever used by the Central Government of a nation using Taxation Policies and Public Spending to influence and manage the economy.

The revenue received through taxes is called Federal Receipts, and Government Spending is called Federal Outlays. The difference between the two is called the Federal Deficit or Surplus. When the spending exceeds the revenue, the Government is said to be running a deficit, and when the revenue exceeds the spending, it is said to be running a surplus.

It is preferable to balance out the spending and receipts for optimal growth. Excess revenue by holding down spending slows down the economy, and excess spending accumulates debt.

Fiscal Expenditure

It is a one-half component of the Fiscal Policy, and it refers to the outlays part of the Fiscal Policy. The proportion of revenues allocated to different sectors within the economy determines the amount of stimulus and support from the Government, helping them become profitable quickly. Fiscal Expenditure is public spending by the Government.

How can the Fiscal Expenditure numbers be used for analysis?

Apart from the mandatory spending like Medicare, Social Security, etc. the remainder of the revenue and the additional debt taken by the Government to invest in public spending to keep the economy vibrant determines the growth rate and GDP print for the year.

The Central Authorities can manipulate the taxation rules to increase its revenue, which generally puts the burden on the citizens. The second lever is the Fiscal Expenditure, where the Central Authorities may decide based on the economic situation to borrow money to finance its Public Spending programs.

When the Government Spending is increased, through forms like, for example, building a bridge. Such a project would increase employment, increase spending as more people are employed, pumping more money into the economy, and thereby making the economy stimulated. The Government can also implement tax cuts, as that leaves more money in the consumer’s hands and encourages spending and hence, stimulating the economy.

Tax Cuts and Fiscal Expenditure are both levers that the Government has to influence the economy. But these are no hard-and-fast guarantees of economic stimulation. The effectiveness of the Fiscal Expenditure lever depends on what the current economy is going through. It is useful for a stagnant economy that has slowed down. Spending acts as a fuel to the fire and rekindles the business environment in the economy, thus keeping the GDP print back on track. As shown below, during recent times, the Government has tried to increase its spending by creating deficits through increased Fiscal Expenditure.

On the other hand, Fiscal Expenditure can be reduced, coupled with increased tax cuts to curb inflation and faster than the normal growth rate. It is a cool down measure used by the Government when the economy is hyper-inflating, which leads to too much money in the economy, and goods and services prices inflate quickly beyond their value. The Government’s Debt also plays a vital role in Fiscal Expenditure. After the mandatory payments, the interest payments for the Debt and Debt itself are what takes a portion of the pie (Government revenue).

The higher the amount dedicated to service interest and debt payments, the lesser the spending for the economy. It leads to a slowdown in the economy, and deflationary conditions start to appear in the economy. When the interest rates are either low or kept low (by suppressing interest rates lower through Central Banks), it leaves a more significant room for spending on public welfare that gains favor amongst the citizens but piles up debt for the future.

In this way, the Government is stuck between a rock and a hard place. A slowing economy and piling debt. It is the case with most developed economies where their spending outstrips their revenue and thereby run large deficits running huge debts that have to be serviced in the future. As the Government keeps stimulating the economy by spending beyond its means, the Government and the country is slowly being cornered into a debt trap that can be avoided through only a massive surge in GDP prints.

The only way to manage debt is to increase revenue through GDP that has proven to be difficult in recent times for most mature economies. Hence, Fiscal Policy and mainly its components revenue and Fiscal Expenditure are being closely watched by investors today to predict economic growth and assess the risk of default by the Governments.

Impact on Currency

Fiscal Expenditure is an inverse leading indicator meaning that the currency appreciates when Fiscal Expenditure depreciates in the short-term. When money is infused into the economy in the form of Fiscal Expenditure, it stimulates the economy, prevents deflation (inflationary conditions), leading to currency depreciation in the short-term.

While the Government chooses to avoid deflation and keep the economy going by paying the price in terms of currency depreciation as people and economy take precedence over the currency.

Economic Reports

For the United States, the Treasury Department releases monthly and annual reports on its official website. The treasury statements detailing the Fiscal Policy containing receipts and outlays are released at 2:00 PM on the 8th business day every month.

Sources of Fiscal Expenditure

United States Monthly Fiscal Policy statements can be found in the below-mentioned sources – Monthly Treasury Statement – United StatesFederal Surplus or Deficit – St. Louis FRED

The monthly Fiscal Expenditure statistics of countries across the globe can be found here.

Impact of the ‘Fiscal Expenditure’ news release on the price charts

After getting a clear understanding of the Fiscal Expenditure fundamental indicator, we will now extend our discussion and discover the impact of the news release on different currency pairs.  Fiscal Expenditure refers to the sum of government expenses, including spending on goods, investment, and transfer payments like social security and unemployment benefits. This indicator is very useful in measuring the steps taken by the Government for the welfare of the country. Investors consider this data to be an important determinant of the growth of the economy.

In today’s lesson, we will be looking at the Fiscal Expenditure of New Zealand that was published on 8th October 2019 and analyze the impact on the New Zealand dollar. The below image shows an increase in government expenditure for the previous fiscal year. A higher than expected number is considered to be positive for the currency while a lower than expected data is considered as negative. Let us find out the reaction of the market to this data.

NZD/USD | Before the announcement:

We will start will the NZD/USD currency pair for examining the change in volatility due to the announcement. In the above chart, it is clear that the market is in a strong downtrend, and recently the price seems to have a retraced near the ‘resistance’ area. Technically, we will be looking to sell the currency pair after the appearance of suitable trend continuation patterns. However, it is possible that the news announcement can cause a reversal of the trend.

NZD/USD | After the announcement:

After the news announcement, the market initially reacts positively to the news data and shows some bullishness, but later the sellers take the price a little lower and close the ‘news candle’ with a wick on the top. The volatility is seen in both the directions of the market, but the price manages to close in ‘green.’ We still cannot say if the positive news outcome will cause as reversal as the price has not indicated any reversal patterns in the market. This is how technical analysis should be combined with fundamental analysis.

GBP/NZD | Before the announcement:

GBP/NZD | After the announcement:

The above images represent the GBP/NZD currency pair, where we see that before the news announcement, the market is in an uptrend, and recently, the price has pulled back to the ‘support’ area. There is a high chance that the price will bounce on the upside from here and continue the trend. Technically, this is an ideal place for joining the trend by going ‘long’ in the market, but depending on the news data, we will decide if we can do so.

After the news announcement, the price falls lower, and volatility increases to the downside, which is the consequence of positive Fiscal Expenditure data. Since the Fiscal Expenditure was increased in that month, traders sold the currency and bought New Zealand dollars, thereby strengthening the quote currency. Now that the price is exactly at the ‘demand’ area, one needs to be very careful before taking a ‘short’ trade.

NZD/JPY | Before the announcement:

NZD/JPY | After the announcement:

Lastly, we discuss the NZD/JPY currency pair and observe the change in volatility due to the announcement. From the first image, it is clear that the market is in a strong downtrend, and presently the price is at its lowest point. Since, at this point, buyers took the price higher last time, we can expect the buyers to activate again. Thus, aggressive traders can take a few ‘long’ positions with strict stop loss.

After the news announcement, the price goes higher in the beginning but immediately comes lower and closes near the opening price. We witness a fair amount of volatility on both sides of the market, and finally, the ‘news candle’ closes, forming a ‘Doji’ pattern. Since the news release did not have any major impact on the currency pair, one can go ‘long’ under such situations.

That’s about ‘Fiscal Expenditure’ and its impact on the Forex market after its news release. If you have any questions, please let us know in the comments below. Good luck!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, June 4 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on ECB Policy Meeting! 

On the news front, it’s likely to be a busy day with most of the focus staying on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting. ECB’s Main Refinancing Rate holds at 0%, and So far, the ECB isn’t expected to change it. However, we need to closely monitor the Press conference as the hawkish or dovish remarks from President Christine Lagarde can drive price action in the EUR/USD pair today. Besides, the dollar may stay supported ahead of the NFP figures coming out on Friday.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.12334 after placing a high of 1.12577 and a low of 1.11665. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair extended its previous bullish rally for 8thconsecutive day on Wednesday and surged to its highest level since March 12 at 1.12500 level. The risk-on market sentiment continued to weigh the U.S. dollar and pushed the EUR/USD pair on an upward trend.

The U.S. Dollar Index was calm during the European trading hours at 97.50, but after the release of economic data, Index lost its traction and was dragged down. At 12:15 GMT, the Spanish Services PMI for May surged to 27.9 against the expected 24.7. At 12:45 GMT, the Italian Services PMI also exceeded the expectations of 26.2 and came in as 28.9. At 12:50 GMT, the French Services PMI for May increased to 31.1 against the expected 29.4. At 12:55 GMT, the German Final Services PMI also surged to 32.6 from 31.4 of expectations. At 13:00 GMT, the Final Services PMI for the whole Eurozone exceeded the expectations of 28.7 and came in as 30.5 to make Euro stronger against the U.S. dollar.

At 12:55 GMT, the German Unemployment Change showed that 238K people lost their jobs in April against the expectation of 188K. At 13:00 GMT, the Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate decreased to 6.3% from the expected 9.2% and supported Euro. At 14:00 GMT, the PPI for the month of April from the whole bloc was declined by 2.0% against the forecasted decline by 1.8% and weighed on Euro. However, the whole bloc’s unemployment rate was recorded as 7.3% against the expected 8.2% in April and supported Euro.

Better than expected Services PMI and Unemployment data from the whole bloc and its countries gave a push to Euro prices against the U.S. dollar and moved EUR/USD pair in an upward trend on Wednesday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1362
  • R2 1.131
  • R1 1.1272

Pivot Point 1.1219

  • S1 1.1181
  • S2 1.1128
  • S3 1.109

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The single currency Euro also took a bearish turn against the U.S. dollar to complete 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1215 level today. This level is extending solid support to the EUR/USD, and violation of this level can extend the EUR/USD pair until 1.1190 level. While above 1.1212 level, the EUR/USD can bounce off until 1.2305 level. Let’s wait for the ECB rate decision to determine further trends in the EUR/USD. 


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.25749 after placing a high of 1.26148 and a low of 1.25448. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. Sterling rose to its five-week highest level on Wednesday, and the pair GBP/USD continued to post gains for the 5th consecutive day on the back of the risk-on market sentiment. U.S. dollar was under heavy pressure amid risk appetite despite U.S. unrest and good economic data. The recent reopening of economies from across the globe boosted investors’ confidence in global economic recovery in the second half of the year, which was also backed by the recent economic data which has already has started to show the signs of betterment.

Markets moved towards riskier assets, including GBP and hence, the pair GBP.USD gained traction in the market. At 13:30 GMT, the Final Services PMI from Great Britain surged to 29.0 from the expected 27.9 and supported Sterling. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change reported a job loss of 2.76M against the expected job loss of 9.0M. At 19:00 GMT< the ISM Services PMI from the U.S. also increased to 45.4 from 44.2 expected.

However, the gains in GBP/USD pair remained under pressure due to looming Brexit risks after the Bank of England warned the city to prepare for no-deal Brexit. The final round of talks between the E.U. & U.K. has been started, but the chances to secure a deal are highly unlikely.

The governor of Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, told the British biggest lenders to bolster their preparations for a no-deal Brexit. He said that it was Bank of England’s duty to prepare the U.K.’s financial system for all risks that it might face. And to do so, the warning to be ready for the worst-case scenario was issued. This warning by BoE kept a lid on any additional gains in GBP/USD pair on Wednesday.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2684
  • R2 1.265
  • R1 1.2612

Pivot Point 1.2578

  • S1 1.254
  • S2 1.2506
  • S3 1.2468

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD was trading with a bullish bias to reach at 1.2600 levels, testing the triple top level on the 4-hour timeframe. The bullish channel has driven a bearish correction in the pair, and on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD seems to have more potential for selling until the next support area of 1.2475 level. The MACD has also crossed below 0, which demonstrates initiation of a selling bias, and it may lead the Cable lower to 1.2479 level. Consider taking selling trades over below 1.2600 today.


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 108.899 after placing a high of 108.980 and a low of 108.420. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair extended its previous day’s gains and rose above 108.900 level pacing a high since April 9 on the back of increased risk appetite. The risk-on market sentiment weighed on safe-haven Japanese Yen and pushed the USD/JPY pair above multi week’s highest level.

The U.S. dollar index slipped to its three months low level due to increased global risk sentiment after the hopes for faster recovery increased due to easing of lockdown restrictions. The DXY fell to 97.19 low from 97.63 on the day. Despite the drop of the U.S. Dollar Index, the pair USD/JPY managed to post gains on the back of strong U.S. equity market.

On the other hand, the headlines of China stopped buying U.S. farm goods and were proven false after the reports suggested that Chinese state-owned firms bought U.S. soybean cargo this week. This raised the optimism that US-China worries would become less. It was also supported by the comments from U.S. Senator Grassley, who said that the US-China trade deal was on track.

Meanwhile, at 17:15 GMT, the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for May showed a decline in the number of jobless people to 2.76M from the forecasted 9.0M and helped the U.S. dollar to gain traction. At 18:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI from the U.S. came in line with the expectations of 37.5. At 19:00 GMT, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI showed a surge to 45.4 from the expected 44.2 for May and supported the U.S. dollar. The Factory orders in April were declined by 13% against the expected decline of 13.7%.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 109.71
  • R2 109.35
  • R1 109.12

Pivot Point 108.77

  • S1 108.54
  • S2 108.19
  • S3 107.96

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY bullish bias violated the series of resistance levels to lead the USD/JPY currency pair towards 108.770 level. The closings of bullish engulfing and three white soldiers candlestick patterns are likely to drive further buying until 109.125 level today. On the 4 hour timeframe, the USD/JPY pair has crossed over 50 EMA and has closed a few candles above resistance become support area of 108.350, which is supporting bullish bias among traders. The USD/JPY pair may find support at 108.350 and resistance at 109.125 level while the breakout of this range will determine the next trend in the pair. Today let’s consider buying over 108.35. All the best for today! 

 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jun 04 – The US Becoming The New Mining Giant; Cryptos On The Rise

The crypto market has spent the day slowly gaining upward momentum and testing resistance levels.  Bitcoin is currently trading for $9,655, which represents an increase of 1.55% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 3.21% on the day, while XRP gained 1.3%.

HedgeTrade took the position of today’s biggest daily gainer, with gains of 29.13%. ABBC Coin lost 4.23% of its daily value, making it the most prominent daily loser.

Bitcoin’s dominance decreased slightly since we last reported, with its value currently at 65.07%. This value represents a 0.15% difference to the downside when compared to yesterday’s value.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization increased slightly as most cryptos gained some value when compared to yesterday. The market’s current value is $275.19 69.53 billion. This value represents a decrease of $14 billion when compared to the value it had yesterday.

What happened in the past 24 hours

The US becoming the new mining giant

Marathon Patent Group, a US-based company, announced that it had installed 700 units of Bitcoin mining application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) units.

According to the June 3 announcement, Marathon Patent Group has installed 700 Whatsminer M30S+ ASICs that were produced by MicroBT. On top of that, the company is reportedly waiting for a delivery from BitMain (the leading mining ASIC producer) of 1,160 AntminerS19 Pro units.

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has spent the day slowly testing resistance levels and gaining a slight bit of value. Once the price stabilized around the $9,450 level, Bitcoin started working its way up, slowly testing and then passing the $9,580 level. It is now in the process of testing this level to determine whether it will turn into support or if the price will go back down.


Bitcoin’s volume reduced drastically when compared to yesterday, while its RSI is at 52.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $9,735                                           1: $9,580

2: $9,870                                           2: $9,250

3: $10,010                                          3: $9,120

Ethereum

Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin on the daily as it made more bold moves throughout the day. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization did the same as Bitcoin, just with a larger percentage gain. Its price stabilized around the $235 level before it started moving up, passing the $240 resistance and reaching $246.3. The price is now on a slight decline and possibly testing the $240 level.


Ethereum’s volume came back to below-normal levels after yesterday’s downswing, while its RSI level is at 58.5.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $251.4                                            1: $240

2: $260                                              2: $225.4

                                                           3: $217.6

Ripple

XRP didn’t do anything to differ that much from the other two aforementioned cryptocurrencies. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap managed to reach past the $0.205 level after a whole day of slowly moving up. It is currently in the process of testing the level as support. XRP’s moves above $0.205 are seemingly more violent and volatile, while the moves below it are slower and more gradual.


Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $0.214                                           1: $0.205

2: $0.227                                           2: $0.2

                                                           3: $0.19

 

Categories
Forex Options

FX Options Market Combined Volume Expiries for 4th June 2020

Thank you for visiting the Forex Academy FX Options market combined volume expiries section. Each day, where available, we will bring you notable maturities in FX Options of amounts of $100 million-plus, and where these large combined maturities at specified currency exchange rates often have a magnetic effect on price action, especially in the hours leading to their maturities, which happens daily at 10.00 AM Eastern time. This is because the big institutional players hedge their positions accordingly. Each option expiry should be considered ‘in-play’ with a good chance of a strike if labelled in red, still in play and a possible strike if labelled in orange and ‘out of play’ and an unlikely strike if labelled in blue, with regard to the likelihood of price action meeting the strike price at maturity.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

FX option expiries for June 4 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.

– EUR/USD: EUR amounts

  • 1.1205 727m
  • 1.1215 603m
  • 1.1245 617m

The EURUSD pair is off of its highs and in a downward channel but oversold on the one hour chart. A slew of data out later including ECB interest rate decision and initial jobless claims in the US could see market volatility. Current maturities are in play, but the data release may well push these into the shade as the day progresses and data is taken on board post-release.

– USD/JPY: USD amounts         

  • 107.85 435m
  • 108.00 578m
  • 108.10 475m

The USDJPY pair is in an upward channel where a previous key area of resistance has become an area of support. The option expiries are out of play. Expect more upside.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

As you can see on the charts we have also plotted the expiration levels at the various exchange rate maturities and we have also labelled in red, orange and blue. Therefore, if you see option expiry exchange rates labelled in red these should be considered in-play, because we believe there is a greater chance of the expiry maturing at these levels based on technical analysis at the time of writing. There is still a lesser possibility of a strike if they are in orange and so these are ‘in-play’ too. However, if we have labelled them in blue, they should be considered ‘not in-play’ and therefore price action would be unlikely to reach these levels, which are often referred to as Strikes, at the time of the 10 AM New York cut.

Our technical analysis is based on exchange rates which may be several hours earlier in the day and may not reflect price action at the time of the maturities. Also, we have not factored in economic data releases or keynote speeches by policymakers, or potential market volatility leading up to the cut.

Although we have added some technical analysis we suggest you take the levels and plot them onto your own trading charts and incorporate the information into your own trading methodology in order to use the information to your advantage.

Remember the higher the amount, the larger the gravitational pull towards the exchange rate maturity at 10:00 AM Eastern time.

If you want to learn how forex option expiries affect price action in the spot FX market see our educational article by clicking here: https://bit.ly/2VR2Nji

DISCLAIMER: Please note that this information is for educational purposes. Also, the maturities will look more or less likely to become a strike at 10 AM NY time due to exchange rate fluctuations resulting in a different perspective with regard to technical analysis, and also due to upcoming economic data releases for the associated pairs.

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave

Advanced Applications in Wave Analysis – Part 3 of 4

Introduction

The triangle pattern is the third basic model of the corrective structures defined by R.N. Elliott. The triangle contains five internal segments and tends to appear in waves 4 and B. 

Glenn Neely, in his work “Mastering Elliott Wave,” expands the definitions of contracting and expanding triangle introduced by Elliott proposing two subcategories identified as non-restricting and restricting. 

In this educational article, corresponding to the third of four parts, we’ll present the triangle pattern variations and its implications in the wave analysis. In particular, we’ll discuss the contracting triangle pattern and its restrictive subcategory.

Contracting Triangles

This type of triangle is the most frequently identified in the real market. In this group, there are two types of triangles, restrictive and non-restrictive contracting triangles.

Restrictive Contracting Triangle

All contracting triangles have a similar shape in its construction. The main characteristic is that wave E ends before the apex of the triangle. The apex tends to occur in a range of 20% to 40% of the total triangle time extension. 

Concerning the thrust, in restrictive contracting triangles, it is limited by the most extended segment of the triangle (25% approx.) This type of triangles corresponds to the formations described by Elliott in his Treatise. Moreover, these patterns tend to appear in waves 4 and B.

  • Horizontal Contracting Triangle. Each segment must measure at least 38.2% of the previous segment, except for wave E. Wave B can’t be more than 261.8% of A, wave C can’t extend more than 161.8% of B. Wave D must be shorter than wave C, and wave E must be shorter than wave D.
    1. Wave A. This wave will not necessarily be the largest in terms of the price of the triangle. Likewise, it will not be the shortest wave of the pattern.
    2. Wave B. In this case, if wave B is shorter than wave A, then the rest will be shorter. If the wave is longer than wave A, there are a few possibilities that wave C will be longer than wave B, and the triangle formation corresponds to a contracting triangle. If wave C is longer than wave B, then the structure corresponds to an expanding triangle
    3. Wave C. Under a few circumstances, wave C could get longer than wave B. If this scenario occurs, then the base-line should be traced connecting waves C and E.
    4. Wave D. This wave must be shorter than wave C, although it could last longer than wave C.
    5. Wave E. This one must be the shortest wave of the triangle pattern.
  • Irregular Contracting Triangle. This variation is characterized by wave B being the most extended of the structure.
    1. Wave A. In this case, wave A will tend to be shorter in terms of time than wave B. The extension of wave B should be longer than 161.8 of wave A. Wave A could be any corrective pattern except for a triple zigzag or an extended flat.
    2. Wave B. This wave should be the largest wave of the entire formation, extending until 161.8% of wave A, but never beyond 261.8%. Wave B tends to be a zigzag or a double zigzag.
    3. Wave C. This wave will be shorter than wave B and should retrace at least 38.2% of wave B. Wave C could be a zigzag, flat, or an extended flat.
    4. Wave D. This wave will be shorter than wave C and should retrace at least 38.3% of wave C. Wave D could be any corrective pattern that alternates with wave C.
    5. Wave E. This wave will be the shortest wave of the triangle pattern in terms of price. Generally, wave E will tend to be a triangle pattern.
  • Continuous Contracting Triangle. This pattern is detected through the advance of waves B and D. Wave B will be larger than wave A, and simultaneously, wave D will be larger than wave C. The thrust of this pattern would be at least 161.8% respect to the largest segment of the triangle.
    1. Wave A. This wave should not be lower than 38.2% of wave B. Wave A could be a flat or a zigzag, but never a triangle or a double or triple zigzag. Most of the time, wave A will be a flat pattern.
    2. Wave B. This wave must be the largest segment of the complete formation. Its formation could correspond to a zigzag, double zigzag, or rarely a triple zigzag.
    3. Wave C. This segment must be shorter than wave B, and can’t be more complex than wave B.
    4. Wave D. This segment must be larger than wave C in terms of price and could be any type of corrective pattern except a triple zigzag.
    5. Wave E. This segment must be the shortest wave of the triangle. If the continuous triangle moves in wave B, this wave will frequently end at 61.8% or 38.2% of the entire movement.

Conclusions

In this educational article, corresponding to the third part of the four-part series, we presented the contracting triangle pattern under the restrictive subcategory.

The contracting triangle tends to be the most common corrective pattern in waves 4 and B. As said by R.N. Elliott in his Treatise, the knowledge of the corrective formations and its implications provides to wave analyst an advantage of the potential next move of the market.

In the next article, we’ll end this four-part present the non-restrictive contracting triangles and the expanding triangles.

Suggested Readings

  • Neely, G.; Mastering Elliott Wave: Presenting the Neely Method; Windsor Books; 2nd Edition (1990).

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, June 3 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for Advance NFP Figures! 

On Wednesday, the market is likely to exhibit sharp price actions in the wake of series of high impact economic events such as Final Services PMI, G7 Meeting, ADP Non-farm payroll, and Canadian monetary policy meetings. Most of the price action is expected to be driven by Advance Non-farm payroll figures, which are expected to perform slightly better than the previous month. It can drive buying in the U.S. dollar.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.11687 after placing a high of 1.11958 and a low of 1.11149. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair extended its bullish rally for the 7th straight day on Tuesday due to risk-on market sentiment and made the risk-sensitive Euro to outperform the U.S. dollar. The pair rose to its highest since mid-march near 1.1196.

At 11:45 GMT, the Budget Balance from the French government was issued, which showed a deficit of 92.1B. AT 12:00 GMT, the Spanish Unemployment Change was decreased to 26.6K from the expected 230.3K and supported Euro, which ultimately raised EUR/USD prices on Tuesday.

The U.S. dollar weakened against its rivals, and the U.S. Dollar Index dropped to its lowest level in12 weeks at 97.43. The weakened U.S. dollar also gave support to EUR/USD gains on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, for Euro traders, the unemployment data will be looked upon for fresh impetus. While on Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce its monetary policy decision, which will be under close watch by the investors. 

It is widely expected that ECB would extend the PEPP program to a total of 1 Trillion euros. If that happens, it would further add in the EUR/USD gains. Furthermore, on Tuesday, the European Commission started a process that could lead to reforms of drug manufacturing pharmaceuticals to limit shortages of vaccines and antibiotics and the availability of medicine more easily.

The move came in after the E.U. faced many difficulties in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic related to the healthcare shortcomings due to dependency of the bloc on foreign supplies of essential drugs and chemicals from India and China.

According to the European Commission, there was a need to build a holistic patient-centered pharmaceutical Strategy that could cover the whole life cycle of pharmaceutical products i,e from its scientific discovery to authorization and patients access.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.129
  • R2 1.1243
  • R1 1.1208

Pivot Point 1.1161

  • S1 1.1125
  • S2 1.1079
  • S3 1.1043

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The bullish bias of the EUR/USD pair continues to drive an upward trend in the market, as it leads to EUR/USD prices to 1.1204. The pair is likely to find immediate support around 1.1150 level, while resistance holds around 1.1236 level. The overall trend is bullish, but we can expect a slight retracement until 1.1180 level before seeing additional buying.


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD was closed at 1.25514 after placing a high of 1.25758 and a low of 1.24782. Overall the movement of GBP/USD remained bullish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair continued its bullish track and rose for the 4th consecutive day on Tuesday and crossed a level of 1.25700 on the back of broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. Another factor in the upward rally of GBP/USD, along with the U.S. dollar weakness, was Pound’s strength due to renewed optimism in Brexit developments.

According to Brussels sources reported in The Times, U.K. was expected to signal compromises on fisheries and some trade rules if the E.U. agreed to back down from its demand for regulatory alignment and fishing access.

After this statement came into the market, the demand for British Pound increased, which raised the bars for GBP/USD pair across the board. However, the rally was on its way to posting remarkable gains but was dragged down after U.K.’s Prime Minister dismissed the report for compromising on key sticking points that have paused the progress in the post-Brexit deal.

The U.K. rather expressed its desire to take control over access to its waters and fish after the transition period ends. U.K. showed disagreement to stick with the E.U.’s Common Fisheries Policy in which fishing quotas for E.U. member states are fixed.

The official spokesman of Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the reports suggesting that the U.K. was ready to compromise on fishing and its waters were only “wishful thinking by E.U.” The remarks added to the growing concerns over the lack of progress on negotiations. The final round of detailed negotiations took effect from today, and results will be under close observation by British Pound traders. It should be noted that if both parties failed to secure a deal or agree on a point, it would demand an extension in the transition period. But Johnson has promised not to extend this period, which will lead to no-deal Brexit.

Boris Johnson has suggested the country would accept a no-deal Brexit if London and Brussels failed to agree on new trade rules by December 31.

On the economic data front, at 11; 00 GMT, the Nationwide HPI dropped to -1.7% against the expected drop by-1.0%. 

At 13:30 GMT, the Mortgage Approvals from the U.K. came in as 16K against the expected 34K and weighed on Pound. The Net Lending to Individuals came in negative as -6.9B against the expected 1.7B. A sharp fall in U.K. Mortgage approvals in April and House price suffering kept a lid on additional gains of GBP/USD.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2691
  • R2 1.2634
  • R1 1.2592

Pivot Point 1.2535

  • S1 1.2493
  • S2 1.2436
  • S3 1.2395

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD continues trading bullish as it has violated the double top resistance area around 1.2545 level, and now it’s testing the upward channel, which extends resistance around 1.2603. Bullish crossover of 1.2603 level is now likely to extend the buying trend until 1.2690. While the support level stays at 1.2550 today. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA is suggesting bullish bias, and now the MACD is suggesting buying trend in the GBP/USD pair as the histograms are forming above zero levels. Consider taking buying trades over 1.2605 and selling below the same level today.


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 108.675 after placing a high of 108.770 and a low of 107.512. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained bullish throughout the day. The pair USD/JPY moved beyond 108.00 level and extended its gains to the fresh seven weeks high of 108.77. The increased risk appetite caused the upbeat movement of USD/JPY after the easing of lockdown measures from across the globe, which raised optimism about the quick economic recovery.

Despite the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, the pair USD/JPY took its pace on the upside due to underpinned demand for safe-haven Japanese Yen in the risk-on market sentiment. On the other hand, the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six currencies, fell 0.30% around 97.5 level on Tuesday.

President Donald Trump vowed to use military action against the increasing protests near the White House, which raised fears for even more disruptive economy of the United States. The protests were against the killing of an unarmed black man George Floyd in police custody two weeks ago. Other than that, China halted the purchases of U.S. Soybeans and pork on Tuesday against U.S. decision to revoke the special status of Hong Kong, which increased the ongoing tensions between the world’s two largest economies. China’s move could also lead towards the cancellation of phase one trade deal, which both parties signed in January.

On the data front, there was no economic report released by the United States on Tuesday, which left the pair at the mercy of market risk sentiment, which eventually drove the pair to 7 weeks’ highest level.

However, on Japan front, at 4:50 GMT, the Monetary Base for the year from Japan was increased to 3.9% from the forecasted 2.6% and supported the Japanese Yen. Traders will be waiting for the U.S. response against the move by China to halting the purchases of U.S. agricultural goods.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108.33
  • R2 108.1
  • R1 107.84

Pivot Point 107.61

  • S1 107.36
  • S2 107.12
  • S3 106.87

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY bullish bias violated the series of resistance levels to lead the USD/JPY currency pair towards 108.770 level. The closings of bullish engulfing and three white soldiers candlestick patterns are likely to drive further buying until 109.125 level today. On the 4 hour timeframe, the USD/JPY pair has crossed over 50 EMA and has closed a few candles above resistance become support area of 108.350, which is supporting bullish bias among traders. The USD/JPY pair may find support at 108.350 and resistance at 109.125 level while the breakout of this range will determine the next trend in the pair. Today let’s consider buying over 108.35. All the best for today! 

 

Categories
Forex Price Action

The Daily-H4 Combination Trading: Do Not Only Look for Reversal Candle

The daily–H4 combination traders are to wait for the daily chart to produce a reversal candle first to look for entry. Once the chart produces a daily reversal candle, traders are to flip over to the H4 chart; wait for consolidation and an H4 reversal candle to trigger an entry. We must not forget that if the daily chart is trending, the daily-H4 combination trading strategy may offer entry as well. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of that.

This is a daily chart. The pair produced a bullish engulfing candle and three more bullish candles followed. The daily-H4 combination traders are to keep their eyes on the pair right after it produces that bullish engulfing candle. Let us assume on the fourth day, we flip over to the H4 chart as well.

This is how that H4 chart looks. The chart shows that after making a bullish move, the price starts having consolidation. The last candle comes out as a bearish pin bar. It seems the chart may take time to produce a bullish reversal candle to offer a long entry. Then again, we never know. It may be just around the corner.

The char produces a good-looking bullish engulfing candle closing well above consolidation resistance. The buyers may trigger a long entry right after the last candle closes by setting stop loss below consolidation support and by setting take profit with 1R. Let us move to the next chart to see how the trade goes.

The price consolidates again. After producing such a good-looking signal candle, it seems a bit unusual. The last candle has a bearish body but it has a long lower shadow. Be patient and see what the price does next.

Look at the last candle. It comes out as a bullish engulfing candle. This is a strong sign that the price may head towards the North now. As far as the last candle is concerned, the price may not take too long to hit the target.

As expected, the price heads towards the North with good bullish momentum. It produces only one bearish candle before hits the target. As it seems, a bearish inside bar followed by a bullish engulfing candle may push the price towards the North further. Anyway, the buyers have achieved their 1R here with ease.

The message we get from today’s lesson is that if the daily chart is trending, we may keep an eye on the H4 chart to take entries with the trend as well. If it produces a reversal candle, we may look for entries too. However, we must not look for short entries if the last daily candle is bullish and vice versa.

Categories
Forex Options

FX Options Market Combined Volume Expiries for 3rd June 2020

Thank you for visiting the Forex Academy FX Options market combined volume expiries section. Each day, where available, we will bring you notable maturities in FX Options of amounts of $100 million-plus, and where these large combined maturities at specified currency exchange rates often have a magnetic effect on price action, especially in the hours leading to their maturities, which happens daily at 10.00 AM Eastern time. This is because the big institutional players hedge their positions accordingly. Each option expiry should be considered ‘in-play’ with a good chance of a strike if labelled in red, still in play and a possible strike if labelled in orange and ‘out of play’ and an unlikely strike if labelled in blue, with regard to the likelihood of price action meeting the strike price at maturity.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

FX option expiries for June 3 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.

– EUR/USD: EUR amounts

  • 1.1100 667m
  • 1.1135 701m
  • 1.1175 805m
  • 1.1180 567m
  • 1.1210 770m
  • 1.1215 582m
  • 1.1220 597m


EURUSD pair is overbought on our one hour chart but remains well bid. There are several option maturities just above the key 1.12 level and with Eurozone and US data due over the next few hours expect a pullback before the 10 AM New York cut.

– GBP/USD: GBP amounts        

  • 1.2560 603m 


GBPUSD is approaching an area of resistance just above the key 1.26 level and the maturity at 1.2560 is large in size at £603M. UK and US data out before the cut. Expect a reversal in the current bullish price action.

– USD/JPY: USD amounts         

  • 108.06 446m
  • 108.50 445m
  • 108.70 355m


USDJPY is in a consolidation phase after the bull push during yesterday’s European session. US data out may well influence the next breakout from the current price range. The 2 red options at 108.70 and 108.50 will likely act as a magnet until then.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

As you can see on the charts we have also plotted the expiration levels at the various exchange rate maturities and we have also labelled in red, orange and blue. Therefore, if you see option expiry exchange rates labelled in red these should be considered in-play, because we believe there is a greater chance of the expiry maturing at these levels based on technical analysis at the time of writing. There is still a lesser possibility of a strike if they are in orange and so these are ‘in-play’ too. However, if we have labelled them in blue, they should be considered ‘not in-play’ and therefore price action would be unlikely to reach these levels, which are often referred to as Strikes, at the time of the 10 AM New York cut.

Our technical analysis is based on exchange rates which may be several hours earlier in the day and may not reflect price action at the time of the maturities. Also, we have not factored in economic data releases or keynote speeches by policymakers, or potential market volatility leading up to the cut.

Although we have added some technical analysis we suggest you take the levels and plot them onto your own trading charts and incorporate the information into your own trading methodology in order to use the information to your advantage.

Remember the higher the amount, the larger the gravitational pull towards the exchange rate maturity at 10:00 AM Eastern time.

If you want to learn how forex option expiries affect price action in the spot FX market see our educational article by clicking here: https://bit.ly/2VR2Nji

DISCLAIMER: Please note that this information is for educational purposes. Also, the maturities will look more or less likely to become a strike at 10 AM NY time due to exchange rate fluctuations resulting in a different perspective with regard to technical analysis, and also due to upcoming economic data releases for the associated pairs.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jun 03 – Large BTC Miner Capitulation Causing The Price Drop? BTC Under $10,000 Again

The crypto market has declined and lost all the gains it made yesterday. This was all due to, allegedly, a large unknown Bitcoin miner moving and selling his coins.  Bitcoin is currently trading for $9,514, which represents a decrease of 6.12% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 3.99% on the day, while XRP lost 4.09%.

Flexacoin took the position of today’s biggest daily gainer, with gains of 13.68%. Nexo lost 17.32% of its daily value, making it the most prominent daily loser.

Bitcoin’s dominance decreased slightly since we last reported, with its value currently at 65.22%. This value represents a 0.64% difference to the downside when compared to yesterday’s value.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased drastically as most cryptos went back down in price when compared to yesterday’s value. The market’s current value is $269.53 billion. This value represents a decrease of $14 billion when compared to the value it had yesterday.

What happened in the past 24 hours

Miners selling more BTC than they created

One of the largest unknown mining pools moved and sold thousands of Bitcoin, which allegedly triggered the price crash. This miner has produced 51 blocks over the past four days, earning 637.5 BTC in that period (this represents 9% of the total rewards mined in that period).

While some speculate that this mining pool is capitulating, it might be that it is only moving and selling Bitcoin as it reached the price point they want to sell at.

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization lost all of the gains it made just a day after breaking $10,000. The move towards the downside was just as sharp as the one to the upside and with even greater volume. While the price fell to $9,120 at one point, it stabilized just below the $9,580 resistance level.


Bitcoin’s volume is still elevated from the bearish move, while its RSI fell to 46.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $9,580                                           1: $9,250

2: $9,735                                           2: $9,120

3: $9,870                                            3: $8,980

Ethereum

Ethereum followed Bitcoin’s spike yesterday as well as its collapse today. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap fell down to the $225.4 level before bouncing back and consolidating at above-$235 levels. Ethereum’s move towards the downside also managed to surpass the upswing in terms of magnitude as well as volume.


Ethereum’s volume came back to normal after the downswing, while its RSI level is at 52.5.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $240                                               1: $225.4

2: $251.4                                           2: $217.6

3: $260                                               3: $198

Ripple

XRP also had quite a violent day in terms of price movement. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap lost all its gains in a matter of minutes as its price fell from $0.215 all the way down to $0.197. However, the price went up slightly and started consolidating at the $0.202 level, right in between the support of $0.2 and resistance of $0.205.


Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $0.205                                           1: $0.2

2: $0.214                                           2: $0.19

3: $0.227                                                         

 

Categories
Forex Options

Expiry Options Weekly Review! How Forex Academy Is Helping Traders Profit!

FX Options Market Combined Volume Expiries. A weekly retrospective review

Hello everybody and thank you for joining us for the daily FX Options Market Combined
Volume Expiries review for the trading week ending on Friday 29th May 2020. Each week we will bring you a video taking a look back at the previous week’s FX option expiries and how they may have attributed to price action leading up to the maturities which happen at 10 a.m. Eastern Time, USA.

If it is your first time with us, the FX currency options market runs in tandem with the spot FX market, but where traders typically place Call and Put trades on the future value of a currency exchange rate and these futures contracts typically run from 1 day to weeks, or even months.


Each morning, from the FA website, our analyst, Kevin O’Sullivan, will bring you details of the notable FX Options Market Combined Volume Expiries, where they have an accumulative value of a minimum of $100M + and where quite often these institutional size expiries can act as a magnet for price action in the Spot FX arena leading up to the New York 10 a.m. cut, as the big institutional players hedge their positions accordingly.

Kevin also plots the expiration levels on to the relevant charts at the various expiry exchange rates and colour codes them in red, which would have a high degree of being reached, or orange which is still possible and where these are said to be in-play. He also labels other maturities in blue and where he deems it unlikely price action will be reached by 10 a.m. New York, and thus they should be considered ‘out of play.’ Kevin also adds some technical analysis to try and establish the likelihood of the option maturities being reached that day. These are known as strikes.
Please bear in mind that Kevin will not have factored in upcoming economic data releases, or policymaker speeches and that technical analysis may change in the hours leading up to the cut.
So let’s look at a few of last week’s option maturities to see if they affected price action.


So on Monday 25th, there were two maturities for the EURUSD pair with a red one at 1.0895 for €559M. And we can see that the technical analysis as provided by Kevin was, and I quote what he put on the website at around 8 a.m.: The EURUSD pair is in a bear channel but is oversold on our one hour chart. We should expect subdued price action due to a lack of market data out today and the fact that it is a public holiday in the UK and the USA. The option maturity at 1.0895 is currently in close proximity to the exchange rate, and we may see a pull-back to the level later in the session. However, at the moment, the bears are in control.


Now let’s turn to the one hour chart at 10 a.m. New York time. The pair was an official

Strike at 1.0895.
The second maturity was labelled in blue and was considered to be out of play.


On Tuesday 26th May, we brought you a couple of options expiries for EURUSD at 1.0900 and 1.0945, and this is the original price action and technical analysis chart where the pair had been trading at 1.0915 at the time Kevin wrote the analysis.


Now let’s take a look at the price action at the time of the New York cut. Price action continued as per the technical analysis throughout the European trading session and ended up at 1.0979, which was just 33 pips above the maturity of 1.0945. Options traders who bought a premium Put option for this expiry level would have been in the money.
Retail forex traders who had bought the pair during the European sessions based on Kevin’s analysis would have been in profit by over 63 pips.

 


On Wednesday 27th, there were two option maturities for the EURUSD pair. At the time of the cut, the FX exchange rate was 1.0986. This was just four pips away from the huge €1 B option at 1.0990


And here is the original analysis from Kevin at just after 8 a.m. BST. Pretty much spot on to what happened at the time of the cut.

 


There were three option expiries for USDJPY on Wednesday, and price action at around 8 a.m. suggested consolidation with a continuation to the downside. However, the 107.86 maturity was too much of a pull. The FX pair was at 107.83 at 10 a.m. New York time. That was just a few pips either way for the two maturities Kevin marked in orange.


We have a similar story with the AUDUSD pair on Wednesday, which had a large maturity at 0.6600 and where the FX exchange rate hit 0.652, which was just 17 pips shy of the maturity.


Of the notable option expiries for Thursday 28, we brought you one for USDJPY, where there was an expiry at 107.75, which was just one pip away from the exchange rate at the cut or 107.74. Remember, other brokers may be a pip out either side, in case this was as good as a strike.
We also had an expiry for the EURUSD pair at 1.0990 and 1.1020, and where the exchange rate at the cut was 1.1031. just 11 pips away from the latter.

 


On Friday 29th, we had an option at 107.50 for the USDJPY pair, which Kevin labeled in red, the maturity was just a couple of pips higher at the cut.


Several option expiries for the GBPUSD pair, but only one labeled in red at 1.2355 again, at the cut the exchange rate was just five pips short.

And the AUDUSD pair had a red maturity at 0.6650, and at the new york cut, the price was just 15 pips short.

Please remember, Kevin’s technical analysis is based on exchange rates, which may be several hours earlier in the day and may not reflect price action at the time of the maturities.
We suggest you get into the habit of visiting the FA website each morning just after 8 a.m. BST and take the levels and plot them onto your own trading charts and incorporate the information into your own trading methodology in order to use the information to your advantage.
Remember, the higher the amount, the larger the gravitational pull towards the exchange rate maturity at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time.
For a detailed explanation of FX options and how they affect price action in the spot forex market, please follow the link to our educational video.

Categories
Forex Price Action

The H1-15M Combination Trading: Waiting for an H1 Reversal Candle Ensures Better Reward

The H1 reversal candle plays a significant part in the H1-15M chart combination trading. If the traders wait to get an H1 reversal candle, by using candle’s lower low/higher high, they get a better risk-reward. In a bearish market, a trader needs to wait for an H1 bearish reversal candle after the breakout. In a bullish market, he needs to do the opposite. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of a bullish market where the H1-15M chart combination offers an entry upon producing an H1 bullish reversal candle. Let us get started.

This is an H1 chart. The chart shows that the price heads towards the North with good bullish momentum. The price, then upon finding its resistance, has been in a bearish correction. It consolidates around a level and heads towards the North. The buyers are to keep their eyes on the chart with a hope that it may make a bullish breakout.

The chart shows that the last candle makes a bullish breakout closing well above the last highest high. The buyers are to wait for the chart to produce an H1 bullish reversal candle followed by a 15M bullish candle to trigger a long entry. Let us keep watching the chart to get that H1 bullish reversal candle.

The chart shows that it produces two doji candles. It means the price has been in bearish correction at the minor charts. An H1 bullish reversal candle at the breakout level would be the ‘getting ready’ signal to go long in the pair.

Look at the last candle. The last candle comes out as a bullish candle forming at the breakout level. The buyers are waiting for the chart to produce such a candle. They may flip over to the 15M chart now. Let us flip over to the 15M chart.

The last candle comes out as a bearish inside bar. Since the H1 candle closes as a bullish candle, so a 15M bullish candle is the signal to trigger a long entry. Let us proceed to the next chart.

Here it is. The chart produces a bullish Pin Bar. The buyers may trigger a long entry right after the last candle closes. Traders may set their stop loss below the H1 bullish reversal candle’s lowest low, which is below the red-marked level. To set take profit, they may use Fibonacci levels. If the price trends from 61.8%, it usually goes up to the level of 161.8%. Let us find out how this one goes.

Yes, the price heads towards the level of 161.8% with good bullish momentum. If we flip over to the 15M chart right after the breakout, we would take entry by setting stop loss below 00.00%. By waiting for an H1 reversal candle, we may set the stop loss below 38.2%. This ensures a better risk-reward. On the other hand, if we always wait to get an H1 reversal candle after the breakout, we may not get it all the time. Thus, we end up being offered less number of entries in the H1-15M chart combination trading.

 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jun 02 – Bitcoin Above $10,000; BTC Miners Selling More Than They Mine

The crypto market has spent the day making moves to the upside as Bitcoin broke $10,000.  Bitcoin is currently trading for $10,115, which represents an increase of 6.14% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 4.96% on the day, while XRP gained 3.68%.

Nexo took the position of today’s biggest daily gainer, with gains of 20.30%. Flexacoin lost 12.56% of its daily value, making it the most prominent daily loser.

Bitcoin’s dominance increased slightly since we last reported, with its value currently at 65.86%. This value represents a 0.24% difference to the downside when compared to yesterday’s value.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization increased drastically as most cryptos went up in price when compared to yesterday’s value, with its current value being $283.53 billion. This value represents an increase of $16.27 billion when compared to the value it had yesterday.

What happened in the past 24 hours

Miners selling more BTC than they created

A report shows that Bitcoin miners sold 11% more Bitcoin than they were able to generate over the same period. The report comes from the ByteTree chain analysis portal.

According to ByteTree’s metric that tracks Bitcoin wallet addresses that are associated with miners, somewhere around 5,800 BTC was generated in the past seven days, while over 6,500 were sold by performing so-called “first spend” transactions.

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization finally broke $10,000 in an explosive attempt. After days of consolidation around the $9,300-$9,800 level, Bitcoin soared and went past many resistance levels, only to land back in the ascending trend it was in a while ago. The trend clearly keeps Bitcoins price within it (as shown on the chart), which is certainly a good thing in the short-term. However, long-term, this trend will be unsustainable. Traders can look for the exit from the trend as an opportunity to make a trade.


Bitcoin’s volume increased greatly during the spike but has since returned to normal. Its RSI level is in the overbought territory at the moment.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $10,350                                         1: $10,010

2: $10,500                                         2: $9,870

                                                          3: $9,735

Ethereum

Ethereum followed Bitcoin’s spike and caught the train to the upside as well. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap managed to break the $240 resistance level and establish itself just below the $251.4 resistance, which it got rejected from overtaking.


Ethereum’s volume is currently normalizing, while its RSI level is walking on the overbought territory line.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $251.4                                              1: $240

2: $260                                           2: $225.4

                                                           3: $217.6

Ripple

XRP didn’t do anything out of the ordinary and followed Bitcoin’s initiative towards the upside as well. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is possibly creating a double top after being rejected from the $0.214 resistance level, which may open up short trades with the target of $0.205. However, traders may want to wait for confirmation in terms of volume or some other metric.


XRP’s volume increased (on average) in the past few days), while its RSI level is currently at 62.5.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $0.214                                           1: $0.205

2: $0.227                                           2: $0.2

                                                           3: $0.19

 

Categories
Forex Daily Topic Forex Fundamental Analysis

Importance Of ‘Government Spending’ & It’s Relative News Impact On The Forex Market

Introduction

Government Spending is an essential determinant of the economy’s growth. The portion of GDP that is allocated to Government Spending can primarily set the pace of economic growth. Increased Government Spending has been a critical lever to stimulate the economy during times of recession.

Government Spending numbers also determine whether the Government is elected by people next time or not. Hence, Government Spending numbers also can help or hurt the Government in elections. Thus, this can be considered a critical macroeconomic indicator for economists, analysts to predict upcoming trends.

What is Government Spending?

The Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment are together, forming what is called Government Spending in general. Both of these are the final expenditures accounted for by the governing sector. Government Consumption Expenditures contains Spending by the governing body to produce and provide goods and services to the public. Expenditures would typically include National Defense and Public School Educations, etc.

Gross Investments includes the Spending by Government for fixed assets that directly benefit the general public. Investments can consist of road construction, public transports, or procuring military equipment. Hence, overall Government Spending refers to the money spent on the acquisition of goods and services such as education, health, social protection, and defense. When the Government procures products and services for current use to directly benefit an individual or collective requirements of the community, it is called Government final consumption spending. When the same is done for future use, it is classified as Government investment.

Government Spending assists businesses and people economically in many ways. Unemployment compensation, Child Nutrition, Student Loans, retirement and disability programs, etc. all are facilitated out of Government’s revenue. During the time of recession or economic contractions, the Government increases its Spending and decreasing tax rates to stimulate the economy and vice-versa.

There are four primary sources for Government Spending:

  • Tax Receipts
  • Indirect Taxes
  • Money borrowing from citizens (ex: government bonds)
  • Money borrowing from foreign (ex: Loans from World Bank)

How can the Government Spending numbers be used for analysis?

The main factors that affect Government Spending are:

Mandatory Programs: In the United States, necessary programs like Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare make up about two-thirds of federal expenses. As more baby-boomers reach retirement age, the increase in all the above costs puts weight on Government that affects its spending capability. These kinds of payments where there is no exchange of goods and services in return are classified as Transfer Payments Spending.

National Debt and Interest bills: The United States currently has a record-high debt level of 22 trillion US dollars, which, when taken as a percentage of GDP, exceeds a hundred percent. What this means is that the National Debt is greater than the revenue it generates. Even if the entire GDP were allocated to service debt hypothetically, it would still not suffice. Such skyrocketed debt levels have put the country in between a rock and a hard place. The United States must keep the interest rates low to be able to continue paying its interests to avoid the risk of default.

Defaulting on the debt could be catastrophic for the nation and can lead to economic collapse. Increased deficit spending (Spending beyond budget) to stimulate the economy during times of recessions and bearing expenses of war and international contingency operations all have piled on the debt burden further.

Discretionary Spending: For the above two categories, the Government has no choice but to spend, but Discretionary Spending is for everything else. The Government decides how much money is to allocate to programs. Cutting back majorly on these can hurt the governing bodies in the next elections. Increased Discretionary Spendings can help in the short-run, but in the long run, all these will catch up, and consequences can be severe.

GDP: The revenue itself is an essential factor; decreased GDP rates can create deflationary situations that the Government tries to avoid in all conditions. Increased productivity and stimulations that result in higher prints in GDP can help service debts and still have enough resources to spend on economic activities freely. Increased taxes can help build up revenue for the Government but can lead to losing elections as the public might vote them out for imposing higher taxes. The Governments have increasingly relied on deficit spending to boost economic growth as indicative of the below graph.

Impact on Currency

By relative comparison with previous years, what policymakers have decided to spend on can determine many local level and national level economic impacts. Cutting back on certain sections can lead to slowdowns in that sector and vice-versa. Investors and Economists use this to predict economic trends.

In general, a relative increase in Government Spending is good for the economy. This indicator is typically expressed as a percentage of GDP, signifying how many portions of the total revenue Government has prioritized over debt servicing to stimulate growth. Government Spending for a given business cycle will decide the economy’s inflationary or deflationary conditions. When the economy is growing at a faster pace than the targeted rate, the Government can cut back on Spending and service their debts, or increase taxes to stabilize and vice-versa.

In this sense, Government Spending is a proportional indicator, the more, the better for the economy. It is a lagging indicator, as it is usually reactionary to situations in the marketplace and not an initiative effort. Government Spending is a lever used generally to fix an issue that already has happened (hyperinflation or deflation), hence has a lower impact on the long-term market volatility in the world of trading markets, although there may be some panic trading due to press releases.

Economic Reports

The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases quarterly reports on Government Receipts and Expenditures, which contains the Spending on different sectors, on their official website.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development also releases quarterly estimates of the associated countries on their official websites under the category of General Government Spending in two varieties: Government Spending per Capita and Government Spending as a percentage of its GDP.

Sources of Government Spending

The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis reports are available here:

The General Government Spending details are available for OECD countries on their official website here

Quarterly Government Spending reports of the United States Government can be found here categorically.

Below is a comparative index for countries – Government Spending as a percentage of GDP. Government Spending as a percentage of GDP – Trading Economics

Impact of the ‘Government Spending’ news release on the price charts

We understood in the previous section of the article that Government Spending refers to the money spent by the public sector for purchasing goods and providing essential services such as education, healthcare, social protection, and security. The two major categories of Spending include Current Spending and Capital Spending.

Government Spending ensures that the country is having basic facilities such as roads, bridges, hospitals, schools, and other allowances such as unemployment and disability benefits. Hence public sector spending plays a crucial part in the economic growth of a country. If Government Spending of a country is high, it also attracts foreign investment and other capital flows. Thus, the greater the Government spends, the greater will be the growth of the currency.

Today we will be discussing the impact of the news release on various currency pairs and examine the change in volatility before and after the release. For this, we have collected the latest Government Spending data of Australia, where the below image shows the quarter-on-quarter numbers of the same. The latest figures show an increase in Government Spending for the December quarter compared to the previous quarter.

AUD/USD | Before the announcement:

The first currency pair we will be discussing is the AUD/USD pair, where, in the above image, we see that the market is on the verge of continuing its uptrend after an appropriate retracement. At this point, if the Government Spending comes out to be positive for the Australian economy, we can expect the price to rise at least the recent ‘high.’ But if it were to be negative, we can expect a short-term reversal in the market.

AUD/USD | After the announcement:

Looking at the chart above, we can say that the market reacted positively to the news announcement and the price closed as a bullish candle. The bullishness in currency is due to the encouraging Government Spending data, which showed an increase in expenditure from the previous quarter. The upbeat data created cheer among traders, which made them go ‘long’ in the currency pair and buy more Australian dollars. One can ‘buy’ the currency pair after the news release after seeing that the data was better than last time.

EUR/AUD | Before the announcement:

EUR/AUD | After the announcement:

The above images represent the EUR/AUD currency pair, and as we can see, the overall trend and here too market seems to be continuing its downtrend after an appropriate retracement. Since the Australian dollar is on the right-hand side, a downtrend shows strength in the currency. Aggressive traders can take go ‘short’ in the currency pair before the news announcement as the trend shows an increase in the Government Spending from quarter-on-quarter. Remember that the stop loss should be kept higher than the recent ‘high’ due to increased volatility during the announcement.

After the numbers are released, volatility increases on the downside, and the price closes as a bearish candle, indicating selling pressure in the market. This is due to better than expected Government Spending data, which was higher than last time, and thus the market suddenly goes lower. One can go ‘short’ in the currency pair after analyzing the outcome of the data, with a stop loss above the recent ‘high.’

AUD/USD | Before the announcement:

AUD/USD | After the announcement:

Lastly, we find out the impact of the news on AUD/JPY currency pair, where we, in the first image we see that the market is range-bound and just before the announcement the price is at the ‘resistance’ of the range. This means we could expect sellers to become active at this point. However, the reaction depends on the Government Spending data, which can cause spikes on either side of the market. A ‘buy’ is also not recommended as the market is not in an uptrend.

After the news is announced, we witness a similar impact where the price goes higher and closes as a bullish candle. The positive news outcome and an increase in volatility to the upside is the ideal trade setup for going ‘long’ in the market. Thus, one can buy the currency pair with a stop loss below the support and a higher ‘take-profit.’

That’s about ‘Government Spending’ and its impact on the Forex market after its news release. If you have any questions, please let us know in the comments below. Good luck!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, June 2 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Risk Sentiment Remains Mixed!

The U.S. dollar after this lost demand in the market and Wall Street’s main indexes started to move in positive territory. The U.S. Dollar Index dropped below 98, which further pushed the rising prices of EUR/USD pair on Monday.

On the news side, the economic calendar isn’t likely to have any high impact on economic events. Therefore, the market will wait for ADP figures tomorrow and NFP figures by the end of the week.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.11337 after placing a high of 1.11539 and a low of 1.11003. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. On Monday, the EUR/USD pair rose for the 6th consecutive day, extended its previous day gains, and moved above 1.11500 level, which was highest since March 17.

Most major European markets were closed due to Whit Monday, which limited the trading activity for a large part of the day. Data from the United States showed that ISM Manufacturing PMI in May came in worse than expectations and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The ISM Manufacturing PMI was expected to rise by 43.6pints, but instead, it came as 43.1.

The U.S. dollar after this lost demand in the market and Wall Street’s main indexes started to move in positive territory. The U.S. Dollar Index dropped below 98, which further pushed the rising prices of EUR/USD pair on Monday.

The European Commission has approved Latvia’s support program to support tourism operators worth 800,000 euros. The tourism operators cover travelers’ repatriation costs in the context of the coronavirus outbreak. The Latvia support program was approved on March 19 and was amended on April 3 and May 8.

Furthermore, the European Commission also launched a dialogue initiative with the financial sector. The first roundtable meeting between the European Commission and the European financial sector, including business and consumer representatives, has launched. This meeting was conducted to find out the best practices to support E.U. citizens & businesses.

At the data front, at 12:15 GMT, the Spanish Manufacturing PMI came in line with the expectations of 38.3. The Italian Manufacturing PMI at 12:45 GMT exceeded the expectations of 35.5 and came in as 45.4.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.122
  • R2 1.1187
  • R1 1.1161

Pivot Point 1.1128

  • S1 1.1101
  • S2 1.1069
  • S3 1.1042

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The bullish bias of the EUR/USD continues to prevail in the market as the EUR/USD is heading north towards the next target level of 1.1150 level. A bullish breakout of 1.1150 level may lead the pair towards 1.1220 level today while support holds around 1.1080 level. Bullish bias seems dominant today. Consider taking buying trades over 1.1140 level to target 1.1199. 


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD was closed at 1.24884 after placing a high of 1.25064 and a low of 1.23236. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The British Pound rose to near one month high against the U.S. dollar on Monday, ahead of Brexit talks, which are scheduled on Tuesday. Market participants are cautious and fear that the U.K. and E.U. might fail to make progress on upcoming trade talks. Sterling rose above 1.2500 level, which is its highest since May 5.

The chances for any real progress in negotiations between the E.U. and U.K. are very low, and that is why GBP/USD was raised on Monday on the back of increased risk sentiment. Time for agreeing to extend the transition period by June 30 deadline is running out when the U.K. had already denied extending the transition period, the risk for no-deal Brexit increased and made investors cautious.

Market participants are buying Sterling with hope for failure in the next round of talks and catching big moves on Tuesday, and this large buying on Monday gave a push to GBP/USD pair. No-deal Brexit would further harm the already disturbed economy of Great Britain due to the coronavirus crisis, and it would make the recovery even more difficult.

Some market participants think that the increased economic growth concerns have made Britain’s bargaining power a little less, and they are waiting to place any big move. 

On the data front, at 13:30 GMT, The Final Manufacturing PMI from Britain in the month of May came in line with the expectations of 40.7. The U.S. dollar was weak across the board due to the poor-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI release, which came in short of expected 43.5 as 43.1 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The weak U.S. dollar further added in the upward trend of GBP/USD on Monday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2744
  • R2 1.2626
  • R1 1.256

Pivot Point 1.2441

  • S1 1.2375
  • S2 1.2256
  • S3 1.219

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD continues trading bullish as it has violated the double top resistance area around 1.2545 level. Bullish crossover of this level is now likely to extend the buying trend until 1.2600, but on the way, the upward channel’s upward trendline is expected to provide resistance around 1.2560, while the support level stays at 1.2480 today. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA is suggesting bullish bias, and now the MACD is suggesting buying trend in the GBP/USD pair as the histograms are forming above zero levels. Consider taking buying trades over 1.2510 and selling below the same level today.


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY was closed at 107.587 after placing a high of 107.855 and a low of 107.376. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained bearish throughout the day. The pair USD/JPY started its week on the back foot as the U.S. dollar faced pressure due to increased protests across the U.S. The U.S. Dollar Index extended its losses and moved below the handle of 98.

Thousands of protesters came out to the streets of cities around the U.S. despite curfew orders on Monday. The protests were against the killing of George Floyd, a black man in police custody. Angry protests continued nationwide a week after George Floyd’s death. Reports of looting, destruction, and firing came in from across the cities. On Monday, police used tear gas to clear a path for Donald Trump to visit a damaged church. Thousands of arrests have been made, and five deaths and millions of dollars in property damage were reported, which made investors sell the U.S. dollar, and hence, the U.S. dollar became weak across the board.

On the US-China front, the news conference of Donald Trump failed to entertain the hopes of new sanctions on China on Friday. Trump refrained from imposing new sanctions on China against the new security law on Hong Kong rather than announced to halt the U.S. relationship with WHO.

The threats of revoking phase-one trade deal, which was signed in January, are increasing day by day with the increasing tensions between China & the United States.

On the data front, at 4:50 GMT, the Capital Spending for the quarter from Japan was increased by 4.3% against the declined forecast of 5.1% and gave strength to JPY. At 5:30 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI for May came in line with the expectations of 38.4 from Japan. The stronger than expected data from Japan gave strength to the Japanese Yen and added in the downward pressure of the USD/JPY pair.

At 18:45 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI for May came in line with the expectations of 39.8. At 19:00 GMT, the closely watched ISM Manufacturing PMI fell short of expected 43.5 and released as 43.1 and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

The Construction Spending for the month fell less than expected -6.5% as -2.9% and supported the U.S. dollar. The ISM Manufacturing Prices rose to 40.8against the 40.0 of expectations and supported the U.S. dollar.

The closely watched and long-awaited ISM Manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations and weighed on the U.S. dollar resulted in a downward trend of USD/JPY at the starting day of the week.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108.33
  • R2 108.1
  • R1 107.84

Pivot Point 107.61

  • S1 107.36
  • S2 107.12
  • S3 106.87

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair continues to trade sideways, maintaining the same trading range of 107.950 – 107.400. On the 4 hour timeframe, the USD/JPY pair has crossed below 50 EMA and has also formed a bearish engulfing candle supporting bullish bias among traders. The USD/JPY pair may find support at 107.425 and resistance at 107.900 level while the breakout of this range will determine the next trend in the pair. Today let’s consider buying over 107.400 and resistance around 107.900. All the best for today! 

 

Categories
Forex Options

FX Options Market Combined Volume Expiries for 2nd June 2020

Thank you for visiting the Forex Academy FX Options market combined volume expiries section. Each day, where available, we will bring you notable maturities in FX Options of amounts of $100 million-plus, and where these large combined maturities at specified currency exchange rates often have a magnetic effect on price action, especially in the hours leading to their maturities, which happens daily at 10.00 AM Eastern time. This is because the big institutional players hedge their positions accordingly. Each option expiry should be considered ‘in-play’ with a good chance of a strike if labelled in red, still in play and a possible strike if labelled in orange and ‘out of play’ and an unlikely strike if labelled in blue, with regard to the likelihood of price action meeting the strike price at maturity.

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FX option expiries for June 2 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.

– EUR/USD: EUR amounts

  • 1.1010 1.0bn
  • 1.1100 1.1bn


EURUSD price action is muted and caught in a wedge shape. The break out from here will add impetus for the next trend. The 1.1100 maturity is in play.

– NZD/USD: NZD amounts

  • 0.6280 229m

NZDUSD the recent bull run has stalled and the pair is in a bear channel on our one hour chart. The 0.6280 maturity remains in play as the pair is showing signs of being oversold.

 

– EUR/GBP: EUR amounts

  • 0.8985 425m


EURGBP pair is in a bear trend with the Pound showing strength across the board. The maturity is out of play.

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As you can see on the charts we have also plotted the expiration levels at the various exchange rate maturities and we have also labelled in red, orange and blue. Therefore, if you see option expiry exchange rates labelled in red these should be considered in-play, because we believe there is a greater chance of the expiry maturing at these levels based on technical analysis at the time of writing. There is still a lesser possibility of a strike if they are in orange and so these are ‘in-play’ too. However, if we have labelled them in blue, they should be considered ‘not in-play’ and therefore price action would be unlikely to reach these levels, which are often referred to as Strikes, at the time of the 10 AM New York cut.

Our technical analysis is based on exchange rates which may be several hours earlier in the day and may not reflect price action at the time of the maturities. Also, we have not factored in economic data releases or keynote speeches by policymakers, or potential market volatility leading up to the cut.

Although we have added some technical analysis we suggest you take the levels and plot them onto your own trading charts and incorporate the information into your own trading methodology in order to use the information to your advantage.

Remember the higher the amount, the larger the gravitational pull towards the exchange rate maturity at 10:00 AM Eastern time.

If you want to learn how forex option expiries affect price action in the spot FX market see our educational article by clicking here: https://bit.ly/2VR2Nji

DISCLAIMER: Please note that this information is for educational purposes. Also, the maturities will look more or less likely to become a strike at 10 AM NY time due to exchange rate fluctuations resulting in a different perspective with regard to technical analysis, and also due to upcoming economic data releases for the associated pairs.

Categories
Forex Assets

AUD/HRK – Analyzing The Costs Involved While Trading This Exotic Pair

Introduction

The abbreviation of AUD/HRK is Australian Dollar, paired with the Croatian Kuna. Here AUD is the official currency of Australia and is also the fifth most traded currency in the Foreign Exchange market. In contrast, HRK stands for the Kuna, and it is the official currency of Croatia. The Croatian National Bank issues this currency.

Understanding AUD/HRK

In the Forex market, to determine the relative value of one currency, we need another currency to compare. Here, when we buy a currency, which is known as the base currency and simultaneously sell the quote currency. The market value of AUD/HRK helps us to understand the strength of HRK against the AUD. So if the exchange rate for the pair AUD/HRK is 4.5571, it means to buy 1 AUD, we need 4.5571 HRK.

Spread

A spread is defined as the difference between the purchasing & selling price of a Forex pair. In simple words, it is the difference between the bid price and the ask price of an asset. Below is the spread charges for ECN and STP brokers for AUD/HRK pair.

ECN: 40 pips | STP: 43 pips

Fees

A Fee is the charges that we traders pay to the broker for executing a trade. Fees to a much depend on the type of broker(STP/ECN) we use.

Slippage

When we want to execute a trade at a particular market rate, but instead, the trade gets executed at a different rate, and that is because of the slippage. Slippage occurs when we counter a volatile market, and when we execute a large order at the same time.

Trading Range in AUD/HRK

The trading range here will determine the amount of money we will win or lose in a given amount of time. In the below table, we have the representation of the minimum, average, and maximum pip movement in a currency pair. Here we will use the ATR indicator that indicates the price movement in a currency pair. We will evaluate it merely by using it with 200-period SMA.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a significant period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

AUD/HRK Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

The cost of trade depends on the broker type and varies based on the volatility of the market. The overall cost of trade includes spread, fees, and sometimes slippage if the volatility is more. To decrease the cost of the trade, we can use limit orders instead of market execution.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 40 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 5

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 40 + 5 = 48

STP Model Account

Spread = 43| Slippage = 3 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 43 + 0 = 46

Trading the AUD/HRK

AUD/HRK is an exotic currency pair. As we can see, the average pip movement in 1hr is 133, which implies higher volatility. The higher the volatility, the higher is the risk and lower is the cost of the trade and vice versa. Taking an example, we can see from the trading range that when the pip movement is lower, the charge is high, and when the pip movement is high, the charge is low.

To reduce our costs of trade, we may place trades using limit orders instead of market orders. In the below table, we will see the representation of the cost percentages when limit orders are used. As we can see, the cost of slippage is zero. In doing so, the slippage will not be included in the calculation of the total costs. And this will help us in reducing the trading cost by a considerable margin. An example of the same is given below.

ECN Model Account (Using Limit Orders)

Spread = 40 | Slippage = 0 |Trading fee = 5

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 0 + 40 + 5 = 45

Categories
Forex Videos

Using CPI Data To Increase Your Win Ratio In Forex

Fundamental Analysis For Novices Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services
purchased by consumers.
Each month the data is released into the financial market by the various economic and not for profit organizations. In Germany, for example, the information is provided by the Federal Statistical Office, Germany.
So what is the Consumer Price Index, which is also referred to as CPI?


This is what you would expect to see on your calendar. The section highlighted is for the Germany CPI figure. The data is the average price measurement change for all goods and services which were bought by households in any given country, in this case, Germany, for consumption purposes.
CPI is considered to be very important because it is the main indicator to measure inflation and fluctuations in buying trends. The higher the unit measurement reading, the more it is considered positive (or Bullish) for the Euro, and if the unit measurement is a low reading, it is considered negative (or bearish).


Here we can see that the data has been added after the embargo release.


We simply follow the corresponding data to the event log at the top of the page, and we can see the actual released number, in this case, 0.6%, and do the same across the data field to see what the previous release was and also what the market expected. When the released data falls out of line with market expectations, you might find extra volatility kicking in to the Euro currency as traders adjust their trading books accordingly.


In the case of the Eurozone of which Germany is a member state, the information is also added to the Eurozone CPI in which is called the Harmonized Index for Consumer Price Index, or HICP.

This information is collated by the Statistics Office of the European Union and is released at the same time as one of the member states’ data but after all member states have reported.
The cumulative effect or the HIPC is then used by the governing council of the Eurozone area to define and assess overall price stability as a whole. When trading this data, look for inconsistencies in the consensus and the actual figure. An unexpected lower number would be seen as bad for the Euro while the opposite applies for a higher than expected number.

Categories
Forex Daily Topic Forex Price Action

The Levels You Need to Pay Extra Attention

Support and Resistance are the two key factors of Forex trading. The good thing is in most cases time these levels can be guessed well earlier. By drawing support/resistance levels where the price reacts earlier,   we can spot those levels. This helps a trader set his stop loss, take profit and make a trading decision. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of how the previous levels where the price reacts earlier play a significant part as far as support/resistance is concerned.

Look at the chart carefully. The price makes a strong bearish move and makes an upside correction. The chart produces a spinning top followed by a bearish engulfing candle. If we consider the existent trend and candlestick pattern, it is a short signal. The question is whether it really is a short signal or not. Look at the next chart.

At the correction, one of the candles breaches through a level. This level was a level of support earlier. After being bearish, the level should work as a level of resistance. It does not. The price breaches through the level. In fact, it may work as a level of support again. If it produces a bullish reversal candle, the buyers are going to take control here.

The level seems to hold the price as a level of support. It produces two a bullish pin bar and a doji candle. If it produces a bullish engulfing candle here, the price may get bullish and head towards the North.

The chart produces a bullish engulfing candle closing well above the wave’s highest high. Let us calculate whether the buyers should go long here or not. The price makes a bullish move breaching a significant level. The price makes a bearish correction and the breakout level works as a level of support. As far as price action trading is concerned, traders may trigger a long entry right after the last candle closes.

As expected, the price heads towards the North with good bullish momentum. It gets the buyers 1R already. The last candle comes out as a bearish inside bar. The price may reverse now. However, there is still a 40% possibility that the price continues its bullish move. Let us assume that the buyers close the trade and cash in some profit.

If we consider the whole scenario, the market seems bearish in naked eyes. When we draw the significant level, it gives us a clearer picture of the breakout and correction. We, then realize that the market is actually bullish. A long entry at the pullback gets the buyers some green pips. This is what Support and Resistance (significant levels) do.

Categories
Forex Psychology

Do Not Let Your Losing Trade Chase You

Trading depends a lot on a trader’s mindset. It does not matter theoretically how strong a trader is. If he does not know how to deal with trading pressure accordingly, he will never be a successful trader. One of the biggest issues in trading is encountering losing trades. It diverts the traders’ mindset, which makes him make more mistakes and lose money in the end. We mostly choose winning trade setup in our trading lessons. However, we sometimes chose a trade setup that encounters a loss as a part of our trading psychology lesson. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate a losing trade.

This is a daily chart. The price heads towards the North upon producing a C point. Look at the last candle. It comes out as a bearish engulfing candle producing right at the level, where the price had a rejection earlier. The H4-daily combination traders may flip over to the H4 chart to go short in the pair.

This is the H4 chart. The chart shows that the price heads towards the North with good bearish momentum. The sellers are to wait for the price to consolidate and produce a bearish engulfing candle to go short in the pair.

The chart produces a bullish inside bar. It seems that the chart may produce a short signal for the sellers soon. The H4-daily combination sellers must keep their eyes on the chart.

The last candle comes out as a bearish engulfing candle closing well below consolidation support. The sellers may trigger a short entry right after the candle closes. This looks like an A+ trade setup. It seems that the sellers do not have to wait too long to earn their profit.

Things do not go according to the sellers’ expectations. The chart produces a spinning top followed by a bullish engulfing candle. Some sellers may want to close their entry with some losses here. Let us assume that we let our trade run. Then, here comes the last candle. It looks good for the sellers again.

The chart produces a bullish engulfing candle again. This must be annoying for the sellers. Let us assume that we keep holding the position with the hope that it goes towards the South and hits Take Profit.

It does not. It hits Stop Loss instead. An A+ entry ends up being a losing trade. If you keep thinking about a losing trade (with your proven strategy) and do not look to find out new entry, it means a losing trade chases you much more than it should. You really have to find out a way to avoid it.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, June 01 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – ISM Manufacturing PMI In Highlights

On Monday, the fundamentals side is likely to drive no major movement during the European session. Still, the U.S. session may offer some price action on the release of ISM manufacturing PMI figures today.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.11032 after placing a high of 1.11450 and a low of 1.10676. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD continued its previous trend and finally crossed above 1.11 level on Friday and rose for the 5th consecutive day this week. The pair showed the longest run since late March at the end of this week on the back of Euro’s strength.

At 11:00 GMT, the German Import Prices for April were released as -1.8% against the -1.5% forecasted and weighed on Euro. The German Retail Sales dropped less than expected 12% as5.3% in April and supported single currency Euro. At 11:45 GMT, the French Consumer Spending for April was declined by 20.2% against the forecasted 14.5% and weighed on Euro. The French Prelim CPI for May dropped by0.05 from the expected drop of 0.1% and weighed on Euro.

However, the French Prelim GDP for the quarter dropped less than the expectations of 5.8% decline and came in as 5.3% and supported shared currency Euro. At 13:00GMT, the M3 Money Supply for the whole bloc surged to 8.3% from the forecasted 8.1% and supported Euro.

The Private Loans from the whole bloc for the year dropped to 3.0%from the forecasted 3.5%. At 14:00 GMT, the CPI Flash estimate for the year for the whole Eurozone came in line with the expectations of 0.1%.  

However, the Core CLPI Flash estimate of the whole bloc for the year increased to 0.9% from the expected 08% and supported Euro. The Italian CPI for May came in line with the expectations of -0.1%.

Better than expected GDP and CPI data from Eurozone gave strength to the Euro against the U.S. dollar and supported the upward trend of EUR/USD pair on Friday.

On the other hand, the United States’ economic data was gloomy and weighed on the U.S. dollar, which added in the upward movement of EUR/USD pair. At 17:30 GMT, the Core PCE Price Index for April was dropped more than the expected -0.3% as -0.4% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. Personal Spending also declined more than expectations of 12.6% decline as 13.6% in April and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Goods Trade Balance for April showed a deficit of 69.7B against the forecasted deficit of 64.8B and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Prelim Wholesale Inventories for April surged to 0.4% from the expected -0.5% and added in U.S. dollar weakness.

The Chicago PMI at 18:45 GMT came in as 32.3 points against 40.1 of expectations and weighed the U.S. dollar. The Revised Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan for May dropped to 72.3 from the expected 73.7 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Revised Inflation Expectations from the University of Michigan for May were reported as 3.2% from the previous 3.0%.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1158
  • R2 1.1141
  • R1 1.1129

Pivot Point 1.1113

  • S1 1.1101
  • S2 1.1085
  • S3 1.1073

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The bullish bias of the EUR/USD continues to prevail in the market as the EUR/USD is heading north towards the next target level of 1.1150 level. A bullish breakout of 1.1150 level may lead the pair towards 1.1220 level today while support holds around 1.1080 level. Bullish bias seems dominant today. Consider taking buying trades over 1.1140 level to target 1.1199. 


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.23459 after placing a high of1.23940 and a low of 1.22902. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The pair GBP/USD reached above its two-week high level on Friday near 1.2400 level but could not stay there and dropped back to 1.2300 level. The drop in sterling was caused by the awaiting speech of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Sterling started its day on firm tone and extended its previous day’s gains on the back of broad-based U.S. dollar weakness due to poor than expected U.S. economic data release. The decline in U.S. Treasury bond yields also added to the fault of the U.S. dollar. The Chicago PMI for May dropped to 32.3 from the expected 40.1 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Revised Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan for May also dropped to 72.3 against the expected 73.7 and added negative pressure on USD.

Other than economic data, the comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell also exerted pressure on the U.S. dollar. Powell said that the U.S. economy had crossed many red lines that had never crossed before. He also stated that the Fed was launching Main Street Lending Program, which had not used since the Great Depression. After these comments, the GBP/USD pair started to move upward.

Investors became cautious before U.S. President Donald Trump’s speech on Friday and started selling Sterling, who made the pair lose its early daily gains. However, after his speech, the pair continued its bullish trend and ended its day with a bullish candle. The heat between China and the United States was enhanced after the strong response from U.S. President Donald Trump over the new security bill in Hong Kong by China, which was highly awaited as Trump had announced it before earlier this week.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2388
  • R2 1.2371
  • R1 1.2358

Pivot Point 1.2341

  • S1 1.2328
  • S2 1.2311
  • S3 1.2298

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD continues trading bullish as it has violated the double top resistance area around 1.2364 level. Bullish crossover of this level is now likely to extend the buying trend until 1.2458, but on the way, the upward channel’s upward trendline is likely to provide resistance around 1.2410, while the support level stays at 1.2370 today. 

On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA is suggesting bullish bias, and now the MACD is suggesting buying trend in the GBP/USD pair as the histograms are forming above zero levels. Consider taking buying trades over 1.2370 and selling below the same level today.


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY was closed at 107.767 after placing a high of 107.894 and a low of 107.077. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained bullish throughout the day. At 4:30 GMT, the Tokyo Core CPI for the year came in as 0.2% against -0.2% and supported the Japanese Yen. The Unemployment Rate from Japan also decreased in April to2.6% from the expectations of 2.7% and supported Yen.

However, the Prelim Industrial Production for April dropped by 9.1% against the expected drop of 5.5% and weighed on Yen at 4:50 GMT. The Retail Sales for the year from Japan also dropped by 13.7% against the expected drop of 11.2% and weighed on Yen. At 10:00 GMT, the Housing Starts for the year dropped by 12.9% against the drop of 12% expected and weighed on Yen. At 10:02 GMT, the Consumer Confidence for April increased to 24.0 from the expected 213 and supported Yen.

The increased confidence in Japan’s economy and better than expected CPI and Unemployment Rate supported Yen and made it stronger against the U.S. dollar, which dragged the USD/JPY currency pair in earlier Asian trading session on Friday.

 The pair dropped to its two weeks lowest level on Friday at 107.077 on the back of increased demand for safe-haven Yen amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and China. On Friday, the President of the United States, Donald Trump announced to revoke its relationship with WHO due to its mishandling of coronavirus pandemic. The U.S. had warned the WHO to be independent of China, change its reforms, and give it 30 days to do so. However, when on Friday, 30 days ended, and no response came back from WHO, the U.S. declared to end its relationship with it.

Trump said that the U.S.’s funds to transfer to WHO will be given to more deserving other nations where urgent help will be required. The decision came in after China issued and passed a new security bill on Hong Kong, and the U.S. said that it would retaliate.

Categories
Forex Options

FX Options Market Combined Volume Expiries for 1st June 2020

Thank you for visiting the Forex Academy FX Options market combined volume expiries section. Each day, where available, we will bring you notable maturities in FX Options of amounts of $100 million-plus, and where these large combined maturities at specified currency exchange rates often have a magnetic effect on price action, especially in the hours leading to their maturities, which happens daily at 10.00 AM Eastern time. This is because the big institutional players hedge their positions accordingly. Each option expiry should be considered ‘in-play’ with a good chance of a strike if labelled in red, still in play and a possible strike if labelled in orange and ‘out of play’ and an unlikely strike if labelled in blue, with regard to the likelihood of price action meeting the strike price at maturity.

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FX option expiries for June 1 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.

– EUR/USD: EUR amounts

  • 1.1000 3.8bn
  • 1.1100 1.7bn
  • 1.1250 2.5bn


EURUSD pair is overbought on the one hour chart and showing signs of running out of steam to the upside with a double top formation and with Markit PMI’s and US data out before the New York cut. The 1.1100 maturity is very much in play. The 1.1000 maturity should not be discounted due to its massive size.

– GBP/USD: GBP amounts        

  • 1.2210 428m
  • 1.2220 471m

GBPUSD pair is approaching an area of resistance but moving in an upward channel. The 2 maturities look to be out of play. UK and US data out later.

– USD/JPY: USD amounts         

  • 107.40 525m
  • 107.80 820m
  • 108.05 881m
  • 108.10 450m
  • 108.25 375m
  • 108.30 680m


USDJPY pair is in a bear channel but oversold on our one hour chart. The 107.40 maturity looks to be the most likely candidate for a strike. Look out for US PMI data later.

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As you can see on the charts we have also plotted the expiration levels at the various exchange rate maturities and we have also labelled in red, orange and blue. Therefore, if you see option expiry exchange rates labelled in red these should be considered in-play, because we believe there is a greater chance of the expiry maturing at these levels based on technical analysis at the time of writing. There is still a lesser possibility of a strike if they are in orange and so these are ‘in-play’ too. However, if we have labelled them in blue, they should be considered ‘not in-play’ and therefore price action would be unlikely to reach these levels, which are often referred to as Strikes, at the time of the 10 AM New York cut.

Our technical analysis is based on exchange rates which may be several hours earlier in the day and may not reflect price action at the time of the maturities. Also, we have not factored in economic data releases or keynote speeches by policymakers, or potential market volatility leading up to the cut.

Although we have added some technical analysis we suggest you take the levels and plot them onto your own trading charts and incorporate the information into your own trading methodology in order to use the information to your advantage.

Remember the higher the amount, the larger the gravitational pull towards the exchange rate maturity at 10:00 AM Eastern time.

If you want to learn how forex option expiries affect price action in the spot FX market see our educational article by clicking here: https://bit.ly/2VR2Nji

DISCLAIMER: Please note that this information is for educational purposes. Also, the maturities will look more or less likely to become a strike at 10 AM NY time due to exchange rate fluctuations resulting in a different perspective with regard to technical analysis, and also due to upcoming economic data releases for the associated pairs.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jun 01 – Ether and XRP making moves; McAfee Calls His Prediction Nonsense

The crypto market has spent the weekend mostly without any big moves.  Bitcoin is currently trading for $9,469, which represents a decrease of 1.75% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 4.2% on the day, while XRP lost 1.37%.

Zilliqa took the position of today’s biggest daily gainer, with gains of 8.93%. Matic Network lost 12.56% of its daily value, making it the most prominent daily loser.

Bitcoin’s dominance decreased slightly since we last reported, with its value currently at 65.62%. This value represents a 0.77% difference to the downside when compared to yesterday’s value.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization increased when compared to Friday’s value, with its current value being $266.8 billion. This value represents an increase of $1.3 billion when compared to the value it had on Friday.

What happened in the past 24 hours

John McAfee on his prediction

John McAfee, a controversial cryptocurrency advocate, posted a tweet stating that his previous prediction of Bitcoin reaching $1 million a nonsense and that people who believed his prediction are absurd.

He repeated that the prediction was a joke and that the statement is ridiculous, as “If Bitcoin ever hit $1 million, it’s market cap would be greater than the entire North American Continent GDP.”

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization spent the weekend without much movement, except for the one push towards $10,000, which got shut down pretty quickly. Bitcoin is currently almost at the same place as when we last reported on Friday. It is bound within the resistance level of $9,580 and support of $9,250.


Bitcoin’s volume is slightly lower than during the past week, while its RSI is currently at 55.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $9,580                                           1: $9,250

2: $9,735                                           2: $9,120

3: $9,870                                            3: $8,980

Ethereum

Ethereum has, unlike Bitcoin, made some moves over the weekend. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization surpassed its $225.4 resistance level, turning it into support. The push towards the upside even broke $240, but quickly returned below it. The move was accompanied by soaring volume.


Ethereum’s volume is currently normalizing, while its RSI level came back from the overbought levels and is now at 60.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $240                                               1: $225.4

2: $251.4                                           2: $217.6

                                                           3: $198

Ripple

XRP’s chart showed us quite a bit of volatility throughout the weekend. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap had a bull run, which broke the $0.2 resistance without any effort, $0.205 resistance with a bit of effort, and then stopped at $0.214 when the bulls ran out of steam. The price has since returned to the $0.205 levels, where XRP is fighting for whether the price will end up above or below it.


XRP’s volume increased when compared to the previous week, while its RSI level is currently at 53.5

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $0.205                                           1: $0.2

2: $0.214                                           2: $0.19

3: $0.227                                            3: $0.1785

 

Categories
Forex Videos

Forex & Gross Domestic Product – How To Trade Fundamentals!

Fundamental Analysis For Novices Gross Domestic Product

Gross Domestic Product, which is commonly referred to as GDP, is one of the most important features of fundamental analysis.
New traders often skip fundamental analysis, preferring to learn a few technical analysis setups and hoping they will be able to ‘wing it’ and make money that way.

However, fundamental analysis is just as important, if not more so, than being able to learn to trade simply by looking at setups on a chart. At the very least, the two go hand in hand, and it is thoroughly recommended that new traders learn both sides to trading.

So what is Gross Domestic Product or GDP, and how should it be applied to trading currency pairs within the forex arena?
Quite simply, GDP is a measurement of a country’s financial health. It usually fluctuates from month to month and is updated by way of released economic data each month for market analysts and traders to view and where the results will likely affect how its currency exchange rate moves up and down against other currencies in the Forex market. This will, therefore, potentially impact on your trades, with regard to opened trades or those in the process of being opened. And so it is imperative that you learn about the GDP for both currencies – remember they are always traded in pairs – that you are trading, or thinking of trading. This also means that you must be aware of when these monthly data releases are happening.

What aspects make up GDP?


You will find GDP release information on your economic calendar, and it will provide you with the anticipated levels of GDP and show you the importance. So here we can see that German GDP YOY – or year on year came in at – 1.9% and had a market level of importance at medium but where the quarter on quarter figure came in at -2.2% and was considered as very important as it shows how Germany is coping during the pandemic.

GDP is updated then compared month by month, then quarterly and annually. It is based on the monetary value of goods which are produced and sold and services which are provided. Some of these goods and services will be sold within the country, and some will be exported.
But the consumption of these is referred to as consumer spending. GDP also takes into account investment into the country and government spending. It then takes the total value of all exports and deducts imports, and what is left is known as real GDP. This figure can then be further divided on a per capita basis or per individual, and all of this gives an overall picture of the financial health of a nation.

How to trade with GDP data

Essentially, if a country’s monthly GDP data is released as per market expectations, the fundamentals

should already be in the price action. That is to say, there should not be any shock factor, and price action movement should, theoretically, continue with technical analysis.
If the GDP comes in weaker than expected, it would be bad for an economy, and therefore, the price action of that country’s currency should weaken against any counter currency being traded.

If the GDP is better than the market forecast, the country’s currency should strengthen.
Ironically, we are in the most difficult of times currently, with a lot of countries’ GDP being decimated by the Coronavirus. So how does this impact on a country’s currency? At the moment, investors are trying to find ways of looking at how governments are handling the crisis and what level of money they are leveling at their country’s to prop them up and help individuals and companies to stave off bankruptcy. And therefore, this form of fundamental analysis has never been so fraught with danger in regard to using it to trade currencies. It is probably better to stay on the sidelines during these types of news releases until such time as some normality has returned to the world. But, GDP – especially if it comes in at an unexpected level – will always be a market mover, so be warned.

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Forex Fibonacci

How to Use Fibonacci Levels in the H1-15M Combination Trading

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of an H1 chart offering an entry. We find out how Fibonacci levels and 15-min chart help us take the entry. Let us get started.

This is an H1 chart. The chart shows that the price after making a strong bearish move has been making an upward correction. The chart produces a Shooting Star and creates a bearish momentum. However, the sellers are to wait for the chart to make a breakout at the lowest low of the wave. Let us proceed to the next chart to find out what the price does next.

The price keeps driving towards the South and makes a breakout at the lowest low. The breakout candle has a long lower shadow, but it closes well below the level of support. The H1-15M combination traders may flip over to the 15M chart now.

This is how the 15M chart looks. The last candle comes out as a bullish candle. The sellers are to wait for a bearish reversal candle to go short in the pair. They must concentrate hard on the chart. It is waiting time for the sellers.

The 15M chart produces a bearish reversal candle. The candle has a long lower shadow but has a thick bearish body. Moreover, the H1 chart makes a breakout, so a 15M bearish reversal candle means a lot to the sellers. The sellers may trigger a short entry right after the last candle closes. There is another equation, which we will reveal in a minute. Let’s now find out how the trade goes.

The price heads towards the South with good bearish momentum. The 15M chart shows that it consolidates now and then. The H1 chart should look much more bearish than this. Ok, here is the equation we have pointed out a bit earlier. Let us draw Fibonacci levels and find out how it may help us set our stop-loss and take-profit levels.

The Fibonacci levels show that the price trends from the level of 61.8%. It makes a breakout at the level of 100.0 and heads towards the level of 161.8. When the price trends from 61.8%, it creates an extra momentum. This is what this example shows, as well. With Fibonacci, we know where to set the take-profit level. Yes, it is to be at 161.8%. With stop-loss, you may set it above 61.8% if you are too defensive a trader. If you want to be too tight with your stop loss, you may set it between 78.6% to 100.0%. The first one offers less risk-reward, but it has a higher winning percentage. On the other hand, the second one offers excellent risk-reward but has less winning percentage. The choice is yours.

Categories
Forex Assets

AUD/RON – What Should You Know Before Trading This Exotic Pair?

Introduction

The abbreviation of AUD/RON is Australian Dollar paired with Romanian Leu. Here AUD is the official currency of Australia and is also to be the fifth most traded currency in the Forex market. While RON stands for The Romanian leu, and it is the currency of Romania.

Understanding AUD/RON

In AUD/RON currency pairs, the first currency (AUD) is the base currency, and the second currency (RON) is the quote currency. In the Foreign Exchange market, we always buy the base currency and simultaneously sell the quote currency and vice versa. Here, the market value of AUD/RON helps us to understand the strength of RON against the AUD. So if the exchange rate of the pair AUD/RON is 2.9141, it means to buy1 AUD we need 2.9141 RON.

Spread

Forex brokers charge some commission on the trade we open, and that depends on the ask and the bid price by the broker. Spread is the difference between this Ask and Bid price. Every broker has different ask and bid prices. Below is the spread charges for ECN and STP brokers for AUD/RON pair.

ECN: 33 pips | STP: 35 pips

Fees

A Fee is the charges that we traders pay to the broker for opening a trade. This fee depends on the type of broker we use (STP/ECN).

Slippage

When we want to execute a trade at a particular market rate, but instead, the trade gets executed at a different rate. This is because of slippage. Slippage can take place at any time, but mostly we can counter a volatile market, and when we execute a large order at the same time.

Trading Range in AUD/RON

As a trader, our main motive should be to know the market volatility and avoid losses. The trading range here will determine the amount of money we will win or lose in a given amount of time. ATR is a technical indicator that indicates the price movement in a currency pair. In the below table, we have the representation of the minimum, average, and maximum pip movement in a currency pair. We will evaluate it merely by using the ATR indicator combined with 200-period SMA.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can determine a significant period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

AUD/RON Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

The cost of trade depends on the broker type and varies based on the volatility of the market. The overall cost of trade includes spread, fees, and sometimes slippage if the volatility is more. To decrease the cost of the trade, we can use limit orders instead of market execution.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 33 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 5

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 33 + 5 = 41

STP Model Account

Spread = 35| Slippage = 3 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 35 + 0 = 38

Trading the AUD/RON

AUD/RON is an exotic currency pair. As we can see, the average pip movement in 1hr is 127, which shows the volatility is very high. Note, the higher the volatility, the higher is the risk and lower is the cost of the trade and vice versa.

Taking an example, we can see from the trading range that when the pip movement is lower, the charge is high, and when the pip movement is high, the charge is low. AUD/RON must be traded with proper risk management because of its volatile nature. If we have our strategy with adequate risk management, we can trade in a volatile market too.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, May 29 – Bitcoin above $9,500; Goldman’s Criticism vs. Grayscale’s Optimism

The crypto market has spent the day gaining some more value, with Ethereum performing the best out of the top10 cryptos.  Bitcoin is currently trading for $9,512, which represents an increase of 4.15% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 7.92% on the day, while XRP gained 2.24%.

Bancor took the position of today’s biggest daily gainer, with gains of 33.09%. Theta lost 6.56% of its daily value, making it the most prominent daily loser.

Bitcoin’s dominance stayed at the same place since we last reported, with its value currently at 66.39%. This value represents a 0.02% difference to the downside when compared to yesterday’s value.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization increased when compared to yesterday’s value, with its current value being $265.5 billion. This value represents an increase of $9.18 billion when compared to the value it had yesterday.

What happened in the past 24 hours

Goldman Sachs vs. Bitcoin investors

Goldman Sachs announced in its most recent conference call with investors that Bitcoin is not an asset class and that people shouldn’t invest in it. However, Bitcoin investors seem to not follow this advice, as the largest crypto by market cap increased from $8,800 to over $9,500 since then.

The rise may be somewhat related to recent news from Grayscale, a financial institution that believes in Bitcoin. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust analysis has shown that Grayscale has bought 150% of the newly-mined Bitcoin since the halving.

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization came back above $9,000 yesterday, only to break out again and push for $9,500 today. The move was stopped by $9,580 and Bitcoin went down slightly since. However, the outlook seems quite bullish and the possibility of breaking $10,000 in the short-term is incredibly high.


Bitcoin’s volume is returning to normal after a surge during the big price increase, while its RSI on the 4-hour chart approaches 66.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $9,580                                           1: $9,250

2: $9,735                                           2: $9,120

3: $9,870                                            3: $8,980

Ethereum

Ethereum has finally gathered enough bullish pressure to attempt a break of a long-time resistance of $217.6. The push was successful and Ethereum is now trading at $220 after being stopped by the $225.4 resistance. This move is very important for Ethereum as it shows that its moves do not fully rely on Bitcoin’s initiative (or that even if they do, they can do better than Bitcoin).


Ethereum’s volume is above average for the whole day, while its RSI level on the 4-hour chart is at 72.3.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $225.4                                            1: $217.6

2: $240                                              2: $198

3: $251.4                                            3: $193.6

Ripple

XRP’s chart shows that the third-largest cryptocurrency (XRP retook the third place from USDT with its most recent move) by market cap is in a pretty important stage. While the most recent move broke it from the loop of constantly making new lower highs, the move got stopped by the horizontal $0.2 resistance level.


XRP’s volume is higher than average for the whole day, while its RSI level is just under 60.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $0.2                                               1: $0.19

2: $0.205                                           2: $0.1785

3: $0.214                                            

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, May 29 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Fed Chair Powell Speech in Focus! 

The European Commission will post May CPI (+0.1% on-year expected). The European Central Bank will publish the eurozone’s M3 money supply in April (+8.2% on-year expected). The German Federal Statistical Office will report April retail sales (-12.0% on month expected). France’s INSEE will release final readings of 1Q GDP (-5.4% on year expected) and May CPI (+0.3% on-year expected). The U.S. Commerce Department will post April wholesale inventories (-0.7% on month expected), advance goods trade balance (65 billion dollars deficit expected), personal spending (-12.8% on month expected), and personal income (-6.0% on month expected). The Market News International will release May Chicago PMI (40.0 expected). The University of Michigan will report its final data of the May Consumer Sentiment Index (74.0 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.10771 after placing a high of 1.10934 and a low of 1.09915. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day.

The EUR/USD pair continued its bullish streak for the 4th consecutive day on Thursday and rose near 1.1100level, highest since March 30. On Wednesday, the European Commission proposed an additional $18.2Billion for the European Union’s foreign spending as part of its COVID-19 recovery package. The proposed package gave relief to NGOs that had feared further rate cuts.

This proposal by the European Commission must be approved by E.U. states and would allocate 86 billion euros to the bloc’s development for 2021-2027. The additional resources would be drawn from the 750 billion euro recovery fund, which was also announced on Wednesday, which will be raised by borrowing on financial markets.

On the data front, the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index for May declined by -0.1% against the expected 0.1% and weighed on single currency Euro. While at 12:00 GMT, the Spanish Flash Consumer Price Index for the year came in line with the expectations of -1.0%.

The European Commission indicated that the Consumer Confidence Index in Eurozone edged higher to -18.8 from -22. Still, the Business Climate Index fell to -2.43 from -1.99 and stopped the shared currency from gathering strength against its rivals.

However, the risk-on market sentiment of the market continued to support the EUR/USD pair and weighing on the U.S. dollar. The potential coronavirus vaccines, reopening of economies across the globe, and potential risk for the second wave of corona kept the risk appetite in the market and continued weighing on the U.S. dollar. The weakness of the U.S. dollar gave a push to EUR/USD pair.

On American economic docket, the poor than expected data also kept the U.S. dollar under pressure on Thursday. The jobless claims from the United States for last week rose to 2.123M from the expected 2.1M and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales for April dropped more than expectations and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The actual figure came in as -21.8% against the expected -15%. The closely watched Prelim GDP for the quarter from the United States also weighed on the U.S. dollar when it was released as -5.0% against the expected -4.8%. The EUR/USD pair rose to its 12 weeks highest level on the back of broad-based U.S. dollar weakness on Thursday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.122
  • R2 1.1157
  • R1 1.1117

Pivot Point 1.1054

  • S1 1.1014
  • S2 1.0951
  • S3 1.0911

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The bullish bias of the EUR/USD continues to prevail in the market as the EUR/USD is heading north towards the next target level of 1.1150 level. The pair have already violated the triple top resistance level of 1.09985, and bullish crossover of 1.1146 level may lead the EUR/USD prices further higher towards 1.12118 level. The closing of three white soldiers in the daily timeframe is also supporting an upward trend in the market.


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.23222 after placing a high of 1.23443 and a low of 1.22336. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day.

According to the policymaker of Bank of England, Michael Saunders, easing too much rather than easing a little by Bank of England was easier in response to the coronavirus pandemic. He said that the U.K. was at risk of relatively slow recovery than other countries from the coronavirus crisis, and it could prove damaging to the U.K.’s economy.

On Thursday, Saunders added that if Bank of England failed to add more stimulus measures in the economy, than it could slip the economy into an “inflation trap.” Saunders was one of two policymakers of BoE that wanted an expansion inn asset purchases in May. While the other majority wanted to wait, though accepted, more stimulus would be required.

The first speech of Saunders after COVID-19 was encouraging the central bank to cut interest rates to a record low of 0.1%, increase the bond-buying, and boost the capital. However, in response to his speech, British Pound came under pressure on Thursday and fell by 0.2%. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar also remained weak during the day because of risk-on market sentiment along with the poor economic data. The broad-based U.S. dollar weakness overshadowed the drop in GBP and raised the GBP/USD pair.

The closely watched Prelim GDP for the second quarter from the United States was dropped by -5.90% against the expected drop by -4.8% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 17:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last weeks also reported higher than expectations of 2100K as 2123K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales for April also declined by 21.8% against the expected decline by 15%.

Despite reopening all 50 states from coronavirus induced lockdowns, unemployment claims still showed higher than expected figures, which resulted in the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness on Thursday.

On Brexit front, the final round of talks between the U.K. & E.U. before a summit in June will be held next week. Because of the last negotiations that went bad after the exchange of letters between the British negotiator, David Frost, and his E.U. counterpart, Michel Barnier, the hopes for the success of final round talks have decreased. This has raised the bars for no-deal Brexit possibility.

U.K. Prime Minister, Boris Johnson will travel to Brussels for talks with European leaders next month to attempt to revive the negotiations. The two sides were still far apart on fisheries, and the U.K. has said that it would abandon the talks if “shape of a deal” has not emerged by the end of June. The U.K. traders will keep an eye onus data and Brexit updates for further actions.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.259
  • R2 1.2477
  • R1 1.2405

Pivot Point 1.2292

  • S1 1.222
  • S2 1.2107
  • S3 1.2035

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the GBP/USD is trading with a slightly bullish bias, facing a double top resistance area around 1.2364 level. Bullish crossover of this level may extend the buying trend until 1.2458. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA is suggesting bullish bias, and now the MACD is suggesting buying trend in the GBP/USD pair as the histograms are forming above zero levels. 

Today, the Sterling may find immediate support around 1.2245 levels along with resistance at 1.2360 while the closing of candles above the 1.2360 level may drive buying until 1.2450 level. The violation of support is likely to push the cable further lower until 1.2160 level. Consider taking buying trades over 1.2162 and selling below the same level today.


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair extended its previous 2-days winning streak. They rose to 107.90 marks mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment, which undermined the Japanese yen’s safe-haven demand and exerted some bullish impact on the currency pair. On the other hand, the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness turned out to be one of the main factors that kept a lid on any additional gains in the pair. At this particular time, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 107.83 and consolidating in the range between 107.69 and 107.91.

However, the reason for the upbeat market sentiment could be attributed to the recent optimism about a possible COVID-19 vaccine and hopes of a global economic recovery, which eventually sent the currency pair higher.

Despite the bullish trend in the currency pair, the USD/JPY pair held well within a near two-week-old trading range. The reason behind the confined trading range could be the escalating tensions between the U.S. and China relations, which kept investors cautious about placing any strong position.

The intensifying tension between the United States and China was further bolstered by the U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s statement in which he denied Hong Kong’s special status and said that it was no longer autonomous from China. 

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar erased its previous day gains and slipped 0.16% to 98.900 on the day due to the rise in Asian shares and U.S. stock futures, which eventually limited the additional gains in the pair. Whereas, The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies dropped 0.16% to 98.900 by 11:26 AM ET (4:26 GMT). 

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108.39
  • R2 108.16
  • R1 107.86

Pivot Point 107.63

  • S1 107.33
  • S2 107.1
  • S3 106.79

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The safe-haven Japanese yen continues to gain bullish momentum in the wake of increased safe-haven appeal for JPY, and it’s dragging the USD/JPY pair lower at 107.120. The odds of selling in pair remains strong as the pair is likely to drop towards the next support level of 106.850. The recent strong selling candle also suggests odds of further selling in the USD/JPY pair today. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Videos

The Forex BCI Indicator! Step Up Your Trade Game!

Fundamental Analysis For Novices Business Climate Indicator

Welcome to the educational video where in this session, we will be looking at Fundamental Analysis For Novices!

 

The Business Climate Indicator or BCI

So what is it, and how does it affect currency trading? Trading is a multifaceted and multi-layered business machine. Now just because the majority of new forex traders hardly ever bother with fundamental analysis, which, incidentally, is why over 70% fail, in institutional trading, traders will look closely at all fundamental indicators, of which the BCI is an important one. These institutions also have professional economists and analysts looking at this kind of data and relaying their findings to the trading desk, who will act on the views of the analysts. In essence, you are up against these teams when you trade, so it is better to be knowledgeable on such subjects in order to more fully understand price action.

Manufacturing is the process of taking raw materials, substances, and components and turning these into finished products that can be sold in the marketplace, both at home and abroad. There are many ways that analysts look at the health of a nation, but the BCI is a key barometer. It looks at the development conditions of the manufacturing sector.
In the Euro area, a sample of 23 thousand companies representing all sectors within manufacturing, including automotive vehicles and parts, planes, trains, transportation equipment, machinery, electrical sector, chemicals. Energy, construction, food industry, textiles, and consumer goods. Millions of people are employed in this sector.
Each month respondents are asked, during a brief prearranged phone call, five key questions: the number of new orders, for domestic and export consumption, production volumes, their inventories for the last three months, and their outlook for production volumes. The respondents are also asked if the situation has improved, deteriorated, or remained the same.
The results are converted into a unit measurement and released to the market at set times, subject to an embargo.


In the combined Eurozone BCI, numbers above 0 suggest increased confidence in near future business performance, and numbers below 0 indicate pessimism towards future performance. The minus numbers in this chart reflect the devastating effect that the coronavirus pandemic has had on manufacturing recently.
So, how to use this information when trading currencies. Quite simply, the worse the number, the worse the economic outlook for a country. However, keep an eye out for the release of this information in your economic calendar. And note, that the eurozone comprises 27 countries all releasing their individual BCI each month, and where 19 countries are using the Euro as their currency. Therefore, If you see sharp, unexpected moves in the BCI release, wait for the big guns to set trend direction and then jump on it according to your own trading methodology.

Categories
Forex Videos

Forex! Maximise Profits With The Correct Pairs!

Reducing risks by choosing the right pair to trade

 


If you could walk into a casino and you knew for a fact that the next spin of the roulette wheel would throw up a black, you’d bet your house on it. Obviously, that knowledge isn’t possible, and so, as traders, we do the next best thing. We use our knowledge and skills to set tip the odds in our favor while trading currencies.
One of the biggest problems here is that, depending on the time frame, you prefer to trade with, knowing exactly where exchange rate price action is going to turn in your favor can be difficult and somewhat challenging, especially when you factor in news events and also unexpected market turbulence caused by rumors and unexpected announcements by policymakers. All very inconvenient if any such event should turn your trade against you.

You only have to take a look at this daily chart of the GBPUSD pair to realize that within a daily short space of time, the exchange rate has been up to a high of 1.35100 in January 2020 to a low of 1.1400 in March 2020. Without tight stop losses in place, these types of swings, assuming you were the wrong way around and bought the pair at 1.35 and did not incorporate a tight stop loss can be account killers for many retail traders. And the hope of seeing a return to those levels could be a very long way away for the rest especially as the Pound is susceptible to trade talks with the European Union and where the negotiations are up against a tight timeline and need to be concluded by the end of this year.


Let’s turn our attention to the NZDAUD pair. If you think about it, the two countries are in close proximity, and they are very similar in that they are heavily reliant on exporting their goods and services, mostly commodities and with large trade deals with China. And so their economies are similar.

This means that to a large extent, their currencies remain in fairly tight ranges, although all currency pairs are prone to turbulence from time to time, especially when it comes to setting interest rates. But if we look a little closer at this 4-hour chart, the pair has been trading in a narrow range of not more than 250 ips since the beginning of April. This allows a little more flexibility with stop losses and also, for traders in Europe, or the USA, there are less likely to be any shocks with regard to economic data releases, or unexpected policymaker decisions because most of this will have come out during the Asian session when these countries are in full flow during their business hours.

So, bear this in mind. It is great to be on the right side of a 500 pip move, but it can be a whole lot stressful just bagging a few pips here and there in a pair that is trading within a narrow range and should not, in theory, break out unexpectedly during different time zones of their own.

Categories
Forex Signals

BTCUSD: Consolidation after double bottom

Bitcoin made a high-volume bullish candle after a double bottom touching the lower edge of its bullish channel. After bouncing off of its 200-SMA has created a consolidation channel in which you see two engulfing candles, after a bounce from the 50% level of the initial bull candlestick.

On the other hand, the Stochastic RSI indicator is in its lower side of the range, ready to make a crossover to upper levels. Thus, instead of waiting for the $9,300 break, we could test the strength of the market and make a spot order at the current levels with a relatively tight stop 100 pips under the current level and see if the strength shown continues.

The channel shown is a linear regression channel, with the edges separated + and – two sigmas from the real regression line. Thus a bounce off the -2-sigma edge means a value buy and a progression towards the consensus, or fair price, which is represented by the regression line shown in dotted gray/red. This action is a high probability event in this kind of mean-reverting market, such as is happening with Bitcoin. Moreover, the trade goes with the main upward trend. Thus the target is set conservatively below that level, at 9,740.

The levels

Buy entry: 9,203

Invalidation level: 9042

Profit Target: 9,741

Risk: $100 on each BTC purchased

Reward: $540 on each BTC purchased

Reward/Risk: 3.34

Categories
Forex Daily Topic Forex Price Action

Double Top-Engulfing Combination and Trade Management

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of daily-H4-combination trading. The trade setup starts with a double top, and the trend-initiating candle comes out as a bearish engulfing candle. The price consolidates and produces another bearish engulfing candle closing below consolidation support. We find out what happens next and how we may manage the trade to get the best result out of it.

This is an H4 chart. The chart shows that the price produces a double top. At the second rejection, the reversal candle comes out as a bearish engulfing candle and drives the price towards the South with good bearish momentum. Upon finding its support, it consolidates for a while and produces another bearish engulfing candle. We know what the daily-H4 combination traders are to do here.

The daily-H4 combination traders may trigger a short entry right after the last candle closes by setting stop-loss above consolidation resistance and by setting take profit with 1R. Let us proceed to the next chart to find out what the price does after triggering the entry.

The next candle comes out as a bearish candle as well. It looks good for the sellers. It seems the price may not take too long to hit the target of 1R. Let us proceed to the next chart.

It does not look good for the sellers now. The last candle comes out as a bullish engulfing candle. It suggests that the price may get bullish and hit the stop loss. Since this is an H4 chart, traders are to manage their trades according to the candlestick. The entry is carrying a loss now. Traders have three options here.

  1. They may close the whole entry
  2. They may let the whole trade run
  3. They may close 50% of the entry

It depends on an individual trader how he likes to manage his trades. Some traders may want to keep the whole trade, and some may want to close the whole trade. There is a saying that cut your losses short and let your profit run. Thus, we may manage the trade by closing half of it and let the rest of it run. This is how we earn or lose 50% of the initial target. Let us see how it goes now.

The chart produces a spinning top and heads towards the downside. The last candle comes out a hammer, but it hits the target of 1R. This means the trade setup brings profit for the sellers. It may have gone another way round. Thus, in such a situation, taking out half of the trade offers us less profit but less loss as well in the end. It does not always happen. However, when it does, we may consider managing the trade by doing it so.

Categories
Forex Options

FX Options Market Combined Volume Expiries for 28 May 2020

Thank you for visiting the Forex Academy FX Options market combined volume expiries section. Each day, where available, we will bring you notable maturities in FX Options of amounts of $100 million-plus, and where these large combined maturities at specified currency exchange rates often have a magnetic effect on price action, especially in the hours leading to their maturities, which happens daily at 10.00 AM Eastern time. This is because the big institutional players hedge their positions accordingly. Each option expiry should be considered ‘in-play’ with a good chance of a strike if labelled in red, still in play and a possible strike if labelled in orange and ‘out of play’ and an unlikely strike if labelled in blue, with regard to the likelihood of price action meeting the strike price at maturity.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

FX option expiries for May 28 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.

– EUR/USD: EUR amounts

  • 1.0995 612m
  • 1.1020 673m


EURUSD pair on our one hour chart has begun to find a firm footing above the key 1.10 exchange rate. Currently oversold and trapped in a wedge formation the 1.1020 maturity is looking attractive. However, we have a slew of data coming out of the Eurozone area during the European session, including, inflation and personal spending and other data including initial claims due from the US before the 10 AM cut.

– GBP/USD: GBP amounts        

  • 1.2160 701m 


The GBPUSD pair saw a sharp bear reversal yesterday to the key 1.22 level, which was rejected. Price action is currently muted and consolidating as traders seek the next break out. Again, this may be dependent on the US data due out at 1.30 (BST). We could see another push lower due to uncertainties and tension regarding the trade EU trade talks. The 1.2160 maturity looks to be out of play.

– USD/JPY: USD amounts         

  • 106.95 360m
  • 107.00 535m
  • 107.10 369m
  • 107.75 400m
  • 107.90 1.8bn
  • 108.33 446m

USDJPY is currently trading in a tight consolidation range on our one hour chart. The 107.90 maturity is large at $1.8 Bn and will prove to be a strong magnet for price action up to the release of the US data and then on to the New York Cut. 5 previous attempts at similar high levels have resulted in a push lower.

– NZD/USD: NZD amounts

  • 0.6230 209m 


NZDUSD is in a tight bullish channel where the price action is somewhat muted. The pair will likely conform with the general trend in the US Dollar (long US dollar short NZ $ or vice versa) during the European and US session. The 0.6230 maturity is in play.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

As you can see on the charts we have also plotted the expiration levels at the various exchange rate maturities and we have also labelled in red, orange and blue. Therefore, if you see option expiry exchange rates labelled in red these should be considered in-play, because we believe there is a greater chance of the expiry maturing at these levels based on technical analysis at the time of writing. There is still a lesser possibility of a strike if they are in orange and so these are ‘in-play’ too. However, if we have labelled them in blue, they should be considered ‘not in-play’ and therefore price action would be unlikely to reach these levels, which are often referred to as Strikes, at the time of the 10 AM New York cut.

Our technical analysis is based on exchange rates which may be several hours earlier in the day and may not reflect price action at the time of the maturities. Also, we have not factored in economic data releases or keynote speeches by policymakers, or potential market volatility leading up to the cut.

Although we have added some technical analysis we suggest you take the levels and plot them onto your own trading charts and incorporate the information into your own trading methodology in order to use the information to your advantage.

Remember the higher the amount, the larger the gravitational pull towards the exchange rate maturity at 10:00 AM Eastern time.

If you want to learn how forex option expiries affect price action in the spot FX market see our educational article by clicking here: https://bit.ly/2VR2Nji

DISCLAIMER: Please note that this information is for educational purposes. Also, the maturities will look more or less likely to become a strike at 10 AM NY time due to exchange rate fluctuations resulting in a different perspective with regard to technical analysis, and also due to upcoming economic data releases for the associated pairs.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, May 28 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Prelim GDP In Highlights!  

On the news front, the U.S. GDP figures will remain the main highlight of the day. It’s expected to be weak, which may drive weakness in the U.S. dollar. The durable goods orders are also likely to come out during the U.S. session and may drive bullish bias in gold and bearish trend in USD.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.10090 after placing a high of 1.10307 and a low of 1.09337. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair followed its previous day’s move and posted gains on Wednesday for the 3rd consecutive day on the back of new plans of European Union to borrow 750 billion euro to aid economic recovery. The pair EUR/USD climbed to its highest level of 1.10307 since early April on Wednesday.

The European Union unveiled its plans for a 750 billion euros recovery fund, which would help the region to face the worst economic crisis since the 1930s. The total of 750 billion euros includes 500 billion euros in grant and 250 billion euros in loans to member states. However, this plan still requires the backing of all 27 member states, which is more than the Franco-German proposal worth 500 billion euros that was revealed last week.

If member states approve the proposal, some funds will take effect from 2020, but the most significant portion of the proposal would come next year when the first bonds were issued. However, some market participants raised concerns about the lack of details on how the bonds issued will finance the funds.

The proposal was announced ahead of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting, which is due next week, which will provide the bloc’s economic outlook in coronavirus crisis. The proposal lifted the demand for a single currency across the board and supported EUR/USD prices.

Furthermore, on Wednesday, the President of European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, said that the 19 member euro area economy would likely contract by 8%-12% this year. She said that the previously estimated contraction in the Eurozone economy was recorded as 5%, which has probably become outdated now. She added that Eurozone might be somewhere between medium and severe scenarios.

In April, ECB estimated that the euro area’s GDP could fall by between 5% and 12% in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, which had medium scenario as 8% contraction. This was depended on the duration of containment measures and the effectiveness of policies and measures to diminish the crisis.

Lagarde also announced that European Central Bank would soon publish a fresh forecast about GDP in early June. On the other and, U.S. dollar faced some pressure on Wednesday, and after dropping to its lowest level in 23 days at 98.72, the U.S. dollar Index raised beyond 99.00 and settled there in late session.

The U.S. economic data showed that the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index advanced to -27 in May from -53 of April and beat the market expectations of-47. This supported the U.S. dollar across the board ad limited the EUR/USD pair’s gains on Wednesday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1126
  • R2 1.1061
  • R1 1.1021

Pivot Point 1.0956

  • S1 1.0915
  • S2 1.0851
  • S3 1.081

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair continued to exhibit bullish bias, having violated the triple top resistance level of 1.1004 level. Bullish crossover of the triple top-level is likely to drive more buying in the pair. On the higher side, the EUR/USD prices may head further towards 1.1056 resistance while the next resistance holds around 1.1139. The EUR/USD pair may find immediate support at 1.0995 and 1.0975 level.


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.22601 after placing a high of 1.23538 and a low of 1.22041. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair dropped sharply on Wednesday on the back of speculations over Bank of England, potentially cutting interest rates into negative territory and lost near 1% on the day after reaching a high of 1.2353. 

Sterling’s mood was generally soured after the comments of chief economist Andy Haldane and Governor Andrew Bailey, who seemed to put the possibility of negative interest rates on the table.

According to Haldane, the consequences of Britain’s banks and lenders’ negative interest rates were the key factors for the Bank of England to consider before making any decision. Haldane said that reviewing and doing were different things, and Bank of England was currently in review phase and has not reached on doing phase yet.

Last week, Governor Andrew Bailey also said that he was less opposed to the negative interest rates given the coronavirus crisis’s circumstances. He also said that there were mixed reviews in the market about the experience of other central banks’ negative interest rates.

On Tuesday, Haldane said that some of the data came in just a shade better than the “scenario for the economy,” which was published by BoE earlier this month. Haldane added that risks remained there that the recovery could be slower as companies and consumers were still cautious because of the possible second wave of coronavirus.

Apart from possible negative interest rates, the Brexit trade agreement’s lack of progress also added to the downward movement of Pound on Wednesday. The United Kingdom has refused to extend the transition period beyond the end of the year, which has increased the odds of a no-deal Brexit, which has exerted negative pressure on British Pound.

However, there were reports on Tuesday that the E.U. might give up its demand for access to the U.K.’s fishing waters to push the paused trade negotiations between the U.S. & E.U. On the U.S. dollar front, the U.S. Dollar Index rose beyond 99.00 and settled there in late session on Wednesday and added the daily losses of GBP/USD pair.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.259
  • R2 1.2477
  • R1 1.2405

Pivot Point 1.2292

  • S1 1.222
  • S2 1.2107
  • S3 1.2035

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD slipped lower after facing resistance around 1.2360 level, which was extended by an upward channel. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA is still bullish, but the MACD is suggesting odds of selling bias in the GBP/USD pair as the histograms are forming below zero levels. Today, the Sterling may find immediate support around 1.2225 level while the closing of candles above this level may drive buying until 1.2300 and 1.2360 level. While the violation of support is likely to push the cable further lower until 1.2160 level. Consider taking buying trades over 1.2162 and selling below the same level today.


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.714 after placing a high of 107.945 and a low of107.364. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair surged on Wednesday on the back of the increased mixed market sentiment; the market participants were caught between the opening up of global economy from COVID-19 lockdown and the pressure of the second wave of the virus, emerging trade wars and the long term effects of Hong Kong fight.

On Wednesday, the cold war between China & the U.S. escalated after U.S. Secretary of State; Mike Pompeo reported the U.S. congress that Trump administration no longer consider the status of Hong Kong autonomous from China.

The decision to revoke the Hong Kong autonomous status from China by the United States came in against the new security law introduced by China recently. The law will be presented to the Chinese Parliament on Thursday for approval.

The relation between China and the United States was already disturbed due to the U.S. allegations on China about the spread of coronavirus pandemic and pressuring WHO to refrain it from taking any early action to combat the virus. China has denied such allegations and blamed them back on the U.S. that it was covering its failure to contain the virus by blaming it on China. The safe-haven demand increased after this news, and Japanese Yen gained traction, which kept a lid on any additional gains of the pair USD/JPY.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108.39
  • R2 108.16
  • R1 107.86

Pivot Point 107.63

  • S1 107.33
  • S2 107.1
  • S3 106.79

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY prices continue to trade sideways within a narrow trading range of 107.899 – 107.650 level. We may see further trends in the USD/JPY pair as soon as this trading range gets violated. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 108.450 level while bearish breakout of 107.650 level can lead USDJPY prices lower to 107.350. Let’s look for choppy trading until the trading range gets violated. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, May 28 – “We Are All Satoshi” – Craig Wright Exposed?

The crypto market has spent the day trying to reach new highs (and mostly succeeding in doing that).  Bitcoin is currently trading for $9,229, which represents an increase of 4.22% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 3.04% on the day, while XRP gained 1.67%.

Electroneum took the position of today’s biggest daily gainer, with gains of 17.25%. Theta lost 0.97% of its daily value, making it the most prominent daily loser.

Bitcoin’s dominance increased quite a bit since we last reported, with its value currently at 66.41%. This value represents a 0.74% difference to the upside when compared to yesterday’s value.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization increased when compared to yesterday’s value, with its current value being $256.32 billion. This value represents an increase of $7.2 billion when compared to the value it had yesterday.

What happened in the past 24 hours

Craig Wright exposed?

The Kleiman estate legal team has announced that they have submitted evidence of 145 addresses so far claimed by Craig Wright are not controlled by him at all. They said that the new evidence proves the “CSW Filed List” is definitively not a list of Wright’s Bitcoin addresses, but instead a “purposeful fabrication” by Wright.

May 24 brought us a Bitcoin transaction signed by the private keys that belong to one of the CSW filed list addresses, saying, “Craig Steven Wright is a liar and a fraud. He doesn’t have the keys used to sign this message … We are all Satoshi.”

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization came back above $9,000 yet again as bulls came into the market. The price increase was most likely caused by the confirmation that the message sent from one of the CSW list addresses (which is supposedly owned by Satoshi Nakamoto) claiming that he is a fraud.


Bitcoin’s volume returned to normal after a surge during the big price increase, while its RSI on the 4-hour chart approaches 61.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $9,250                                           1: $9,120

2: $9,580                                           2: $8,980

3: $9,735                                            3: $8,820

Ethereum

Ethereum has spent the day following Bitcoin’s initiative and pushing towards the upside. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization managed to reach $209 before losing momentum. While the uptick Ethereum has made is good, the fact that ETH has created another lower high does not look well as far as mid-term analysis is concerned.


Ethereum’s volume doubled during the uptick, while its RSI started reverting after reaching the value of 58.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $217.6                                            1: $198

2: $225.4                                           2: $193.6

3: $240                                               3: $185

Ripple

XRP’s chart looked a lot like Ethereum’s chart yet another time. The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has created another lower high after a move up that brought it (briefly) to just above $0.2. However, the movement lost momentum, and XRP seems to be in a downturn at the moment.


XRP’s volume increased to several times its average during the uptick but quickly returned to its average levels. Its RSI on the 4-hour chart is currently at 54.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $0.2                                               1: $0.19

2: $0.205                                           2: $0.1785

3: $0.214                                            

 

Categories
Forex Signals

GBPJPY Bearish Engulfing after double top at the upper edge of the descending channel

GBPJPY has been moving in a descending channel since April 10. The action created a lot of volatility, driving prices back and forth from top to bottom of the channel. The last iteration drove its price to surpass the upper limit, a +2 sigma event, which means the pair was overpriced if we compare it with what we may call the fair price, which is the linear regression channel, the red mid-line.

After the double top, a large bearish engulfing candle was drawn, confirming the reversal signal; thus, we can set up a short trade with entry at the current level, an invalidation point beyond the last top and a target at the projected linear regression point. The Reward/risk ratio of 2 is a conservative value that will ensure our long-term profitability.

Key levels:

Short-Entry:132.175

Take.profit:130.575

Stop-Loss: 132.965

Reward Ratio: 2.03

Risk:735 USD per lot, 73.5 USD per mini-lot.

Reward: 1,491USD per lot, 149 USD per mini-lot.

Position sizing: 2% Risk equals 3 micro-lots for every $1,000 balance in the trading account.

Categories
Forex Assets

Trading The AUD/DKK Forex Pair & Analyzing The Trading Costs Involved

Introduction

The abbreviation of AUD/DKK is the Australian Dollar paired with the Danish Krone. Here, AUD is the official currency of Australia and many others like Christmas Island and Norfolk Island. AUD is also to be the fifth most traded currency in the Forex market. In contrast, DKK stands for the Danish Krone, and it is the currency of Denmark, Greenland, and the Faroe Islands.

Understanding AUD/DKK

In AUD/DKK currency pairs, the first currency(AUD) is the base currency, and the second currency(DKK) is the quote currency. In the foreign exchange market, when we sell a currency pair, we always sell the base currency and simultaneously buy the quote currency and vice versa. Here, the market value of AUD/DKK helps us to understand the strength of DKK against the AUD. So if the exchange rate for the pair AUD/DKK is 4.4625, it means we need 4.4625 DKK to buy 1 AUD.

Spread

Forex brokers have two prices for currency pairs: the bid and ask price. The bid price is the price in which we sell an asset, and ask is the price at which we buy it. The difference between the ask and the bid price is called the spread. Below are the spread values for the AUD/DKK Forex pair.

ECN: 20 pips | STP: 23 pips

Fees

A Fee is the charges that we traders pay to the broker for opening a trade. This fee depends on the type of broker (STP/ECN) we use.

Slippage

When we want to execute a trade at a particular price, but instead, if the trade gets executed at a different price, we call that difference as Slippage. The Slippage can take place at any time, but mostly we can counter a volatile market.

Trading Range in AUD/DKK

As a trader, our main motive should be to avoid losses and risks. The trading range here will determine the amount of money we will win or lose in a given amount of time. ATR is a technical indicator that indicates the price movement in a currency pair. In the below table, we have the representation of the minimum, average, and maximum pip movement in a currency pair. We will evaluate it merely by using the ATR indicator combined with 200-period SMA.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a significant period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

AUD/DKK Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

The cost of trade depends on the broker type and varies based on the volatility of the market. The total cost of trade involves spread, fees, and sometimes Slippage if the volatility is more.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 20 | Slippage = 3 |Trading fee = 5

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 3 + 20 + 5 = 28 

STP Model Account

Spread = 23| Slippage = 3 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee = 23 + 3 + 0 = 26

Trading the AUD/DKK

AUD/DKK is an exotic currency pair that less traded in the forex exchange market. The average pip movement in 1hr is 183, which shows the volatility is very high.

Note, The higher the volatility, the higher is the risk and lower is the cost of the trade and vice versa. Taking an example, we can see from the trading range when the pip movement is more, the cost is low, and when the pip movement is low, the cost is high.

Trading using LIMIT ORDERS

To reduce our costs of trade, we can place the trades using limit orders instead of market orders. In doing so, we can eliminate the Slippage that will help reduce the overall cost of the trade. An example of a Limit order is given below.

Spread = 20 | Slippage = 0 |Trading fee = 5

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 0 + 20 + 5 = 25

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave

Advanced Applications in Wave Analysis – Part 2 of 4

Introduction

As we commented in previous articles that cover the corrective structures, R.N. Elliott considers its study as a key to understand the current market situation and what to expect for the next path.

In this educational article, we expand the observations of the flat and the zigzag pattern.

Corrective Patterns in Action

In the first part of this four-part series, we commented that impulsive waves create trends. Corrective waves correct or retrace the progression of the trending movement developed by the motive waves. A corrective structure will never appear in a wave 1, 3, 5, in a wave A and C of a zigzag, and wave C of a flat pattern.

The Flat Pattern

The flat pattern develops different variations depending on the strength of the trend or the level of complexity of the correction in progress. In its fundamental nature, the flat follows an internal sequence as 3-3-5.

On the other hand, variations in the flat pattern surge in the extensions of its waves B and C. In brief words, as wave B extends more than the 100% of wave A, wave C will tend to be short. And the lesser the retrace of wave A by wave B, the larger wave C will be.

  1. Failure in B. This case represents the scenario when wave B retrace between 61.8% and 81% the progress of wave A. If wave B extends beyond 81%, it means that the market is temporarily weak. Wave B will fail when the wave A be a double zigzag or a double combination. Wave C will tend to retrace the advance of wave B entirely. This variation could appear in waves 2, 4, A, B, or inside a horizontal triangle in its legs C, D, or E.
  2. Failure in C. This type of failure tends to occur when wave A experiences a complete or almost complete retracement made by wave B. When the price movement fails in wave C, the market shows a signal against the dominant trend. In this context, this pattern will appear in a terminal sequence. Wave C duration will be shorter than wave B and will show a similar duration than wave A. This variation could arise in waves 2, 4, A, B, or the wave 5 of a terminal impulsive wave.
  3. Regular. This formation is the typical flat pattern. Wave B retraces at least 81% of wave A, and wave C will advance wave B entirely. Also, this wave could extend between 10% and 20% beyond the end of wave A. In this variation, wave B will tend to be a complex structure, and its extension in time will be longer than waves A and C. The regular flat could rise in waves 2, 4, A, B, or in waves C, D, or E in a terminal impulsive wave.
  4. Double Failure. This scenario is infrequent; however, the double failure occurs when wave B to retrace beyond 81% of wave A, and wave C doesn’t extend beyond 100% of wave A. The double failure variation will look like a contracting triangle. Finally, this scenario will tend to appear in waves 2, 4, in wave A inside of a triangle or an irregular flat. When it happens in a wave B, it could belong to a zigzag, a regular on in an extended flat.
  5. Extended. This configuration occurs when wave C advance reaches between 138.2% or beyond 161.8% of wave B. Waves A and B must be similar in terms of price and time. This variation should tend to appear in waves 1, 3, or 5 as an impulsive terminal wave. In waves A, B, C, or D in a horizontal triangle, or wave E of an expanding triangle.
  6. Irregular. This is the most straightforward variation of the flat pattern. At the same time, it isn’t easy to find it in the real market. This pattern is indicative of the strength of the previous move. Wave B must be higher than wave A in price. Generally, wave C will be equal to wave A in price and time relation. This variation tends to appear in waves 2, 4, in wave B before the extended wave C of a flat, or as the wave B in a zigzag when wave C moves beyond 161.8% of wave A.
  7. Continuous. This correction is the most powerful variation of the flat pattern. This type of formation tends to imply volatile movements of the same degree. The continuous flat pattern tends to emerge in the second wave after an extended third wave. When it appears in the fourth wave, this variation could occur before a fifth extended wave. In a wave B, it surges before an extended wave C; in a triangle pattern, it could happen in the a-b-c series, or in a wave B of a zigzag that forms a triangle structure.

The following figure represents the seven flat pattern variations.

The Zigzag Pattern

The main difference between zigzag and flat pattern is that zigzag does not have a wide variety. The central aspect to take in consideration with the zigzag pattern is the extension of wave C compared with wave A, and the subdivisions number of wave C compared with wave A.

  1. Wave A. This wave must have an impulsive structure; this means that its internal structure must contain five segments. The A wave of a zigzag formation shouldn’t experience a retrace beyond 61.8% by wave B. If the wave B retraces beyond 61.8%, this could be indicative that the market is developing a complex correction as a double zigzag or a double combination.
  2. Wave B. This wave must show a corrective structure with three segments in its construction. As stated earlier, its progression should not go beyond 61.8% of wave A. This wave never will present a continuous correction. If this situation occurs, then the zigzag moves inside a triangle pattern. In this case, the zigzag will be the second wave of an impulsive sequence. Consequently, if this scenario occurs, then the wave B could not be a complex corrective structure as a double or triple zigzag, nor any other type of combination of corrective structures.
  3. Wave C. This part of the zigzag pattern contains five internal segments. Its extension could be from 61.8% to 161.8% of wave A.

Conclusions

In this educational article, we presented the variations of the flat pattern and the zigzag. These variations can provide a significative clue to the wave analyst respecting to the market situation and what to expect for the following sessions.

In the next educational article, corresponding to the third part of the advanced applications in wave analysis, we will present the variations in the triangle pattern.

Suggested Readings

      • Neely, G.; Mastering Elliott Wave: Presenting the Neely Method; Windsor Books; 2nd Edition (1990).
Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, May 27 – BTC Transaction Fees Down More Than 50%

The crypto market has spent the day slowly testing out immediate support and resistance levels.  Bitcoin is currently trading for $8,836, which represents a decrease of 1.28% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 0.37% on the day, while XRP gained 0.08%.

SOLVE took the position of today’s biggest daily gainer, with gains of 15.32%. Theta Fuel lost 10.48% of its daily value, making it the most prominent daily loser.

Bitcoin’s dominance decreased quite a bit since we last reported, with its value currently at 65.77%. This value represents a 0.34% difference to the downside.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased when compared to yesterday’s value, with its current value being $249.12 billion. This value represents a decrease of $0.87 billion when compared to the value it had yesterday.

What happened in the past 24 hours

BTC transaction fees

After spiking to Feb 2018 level-highs just a week ago, the average Bitcoin transaction fee has dropped by more than 50%.

The data shows that Bitcoin’s average fee fell from $6.65 on May 20 all the way down to $3.07 on May 25, representing a nearly 54% decrease.

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization had quite a slow day of testing its support and resistance levels. As it failed to break $8,980 resistance line, Bitcoin started dropping towards the downside and only stopping at the $8,650 support level. However, the bounce from the $8,650 level was strong enough to put Bitcoin back to where it was, practically nullifying all efforts made by both the bulls and the bears.


Bitcoin is still trading between the $8,820 support and $8,980 resistance. Breaking above the resistance level could trigger another strong push towards the upside, while a break below the support is less valuable as a signal (unless accompanied by a strong volume and goes below $8,650).

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $8,980                                           1: $8,820

2: $9,120                                           2: $8,650

3: $9,250                                            3: $8,000

Ethereum

Ethereum has spent most of the day dropping towards the $198 support line and testing its strength. The level held strong, and ETH bulls came in and picked up the slack and struck when bears were weakened from the push. Ethereum has, over a couple of hours, managed to reach $205 levels.


Ethereum’s volume is still incredibly small, while its RSI is in the middle of the value range.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $217.6                                            1: $198

2: $225.4                                           2: $193.6

3: $240                                               3: $185

Ripple

XRP’s chart looked a lot like Ethereum’s chart yet again. The price has fallen slightly as bears tried to take over the market, but it then corrected to the upside and came back to the previous levels. Out of the three cryptocurrencies we are covering, XRP was the only one that ended up in the green today.


XRP’s volume decreased slightly when compared to yesterday, while its RSI stayed just below the middle of the value range.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $0.2                                               1: $0.19

2: $0.205                                           2: $0.1785

3: $0.214                                            

 

Categories
Forex Options

FX Options Market Combined Volume Expiries for 27 May 2020

Thank you for visiting the Forex Academy FX Options market combined volume expiries section. Each day, where available, we will bring you notable maturities in FX Options of amounts of $100 million-plus, and where these large combined maturities at specified currency exchange rates often have a magnetic effect on price action, especially in the hours leading to their maturities, which happens daily at 10.00 AM Eastern time. This is because the big institutional players hedge their positions accordingly. Each option expiry should be considered ‘in-play’ with a good chance of a strike if labelled in red, still in play and a possible strike if labelled in orange and ‘out of play’ and an unlikely strike if labelled in blue, with regard to the likelihood of price action meeting the strike price at maturity.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

FX option expiries for May 27 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.

– EUR/USD: EUR amounts

  • 1.0930 871m
  • 1.0990 1.0bn

The EURUSD pair has found some support overnight at the 1.0950 level and is currently oversold on our one hour chart. Price action was capped just under the key 1.10 level in yesterday’s European and US session but a large €1B option expiry at 1.0990 will act as a magnet. Caution should be noted as there are key ECB policymaker speeches due this morning, including Ms Lagarde.

– GBP/USD: GBP amounts

  • 1.2500 460m

 

Cable is coming off a bull run where it ran into resistance at 1.2362 after HM Gov announced an easing of lockdown measures and where the ECB policymakers eased their stance on fishery rights which might open the way to more successful trade talks next month. Even so, the 1.25 option looks well out of play as the pair remains in a bear channel due to profit-taking.

 

– USD/JPY: USD amounts

  • 107.80 868m
  • 107.90 889m
  • 108.15 1.0bn

 


After a corrective double top downturn, the USDJPY pair is in a consolidation phase. A breakout is imminent, the likely candidate is a continuation to the bear move.

– AUD/USD: AUD amounts

  • 0.6600 1.1bn
  • 0.6650 633m

The AUSUSD pair is stuck in a low volume sideways action and the 0.6650 cut is right in the middle. Expect a continuation in this motion as price action is thin.

– EUR/GBP: EUR amounts

  • 0.8900 794m

EURGBP is in a sideways move as it consolidates looking for the next breakout. The pound has been firming over the last 24 hours and ECB policymaker speeches due in the next few hours may set the tone for the next move out of this price action phase. The 0.8900 is a large expiry and looks to be very much in play.

 

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

As you can see on the charts we have also plotted the expiration levels at the various exchange rate maturities and we have also labelled in red, orange and blue. Therefore, if you see option expiry exchange rates labelled in red these should be considered in-play, because we believe there is a greater chance of the expiry maturing at these levels based on technical analysis at the time of writing. There is still a lesser possibility of a strike if they are in orange and so these are ‘in-play’ too. However, if we have labelled them in blue, they should be considered ‘not in-play’ and therefore price action would be unlikely to reach these levels, which are often referred to as Strikes, at the time of the 10 AM New York cut.

Our technical analysis is based on exchange rates which may be several hours earlier in the day and may not reflect price action at the time of the maturities. Also, we have not factored in economic data releases or keynote speeches by policymakers, or potential market volatility leading up to the cut.

Although we have added some technical analysis we suggest you take the levels and plot them onto your own trading charts and incorporate the information into your own trading methodology in order to use the information to your advantage.

Remember the higher the amount, the larger the gravitational pull towards the exchange rate maturity at 10:00 AM Eastern time.

If you want to learn how forex option expiries affect price action in the spot FX market see our educational article by clicking here: https://bit.ly/2VR2Nji

DISCLAIMER: Please note that this information is for educational purposes. Also, the maturities will look more or less likely to become a strike at 10 AM NY time due to exchange rate fluctuations resulting in a different perspective with regard to technical analysis, and also due to upcoming economic data releases for the associated pairs.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, May 27 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – ECB President Lagarde Speaks! 

The U.S. dollar, which behaves like a safe-haven asset during political uncertainty & market turmoil, rose to a one-week high against the basket of 6 currencies, but it started to erase its daily gains in late London Session. Tensions between U.S. &China have increased since the coronavirus outbreak, over which both countries have exchanged accusations of cover-ups and lack of transparency with the world. The signs for easing tensions between the two biggest economies of the world are decreasing day by day and have created an uncertain environment in the market weighing on the market.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.09821 after placing a high of 1.09956 and a low of 1.08913. Overall the movement of EUR/USD remained bullish throughout the day. On Tuesday, EUR/USD prices surged and recovered its previous three days’ losses and regained strength in the market on the back of the renewed risk-on market sentiment. The risk appetite after easing of lockdown throughout the world gave strength to the riskier assets like EUR/USD pair and rose them across the board.

The rising hopes for potential coronavirus vaccine added in the risk sentiment and increased expectations for a quick economic recovery. A bid pharmaceutical company, which was the first to make the Ebola vaccine revealed its plans on Tuesday and said that it was working on two potential vaccines and one drug to cure the virus’s infection. The CEO of the company was cautious that it might take a long time to deliver vaccines across the globe.

This raised optimism around the market and raised the bars for riskier assets and moved EUR/USD pairs to recover its previous day’s losses.

On the other hand, in the economic docket, EUR found extra support after the German Consumer Climate from Gfk came in as -18.9 against the expectations of -19.1.

Furthermore, the European Central Bank said that the coronavirus pandemic had amplified the existing vulnerabilities of the financial sector, which will make Eurozone banks face significant losses.

ECB reported that the pandemic had caused one of the sharpest economic contraction in recent history. Still, a wide range of policy measures has been proved helpful in averting a financial meltdown.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1126
  • R2 1.1061
  • R1 1.1021

Pivot Point 1.0956

  • S1 1.0915
  • S2 1.0851
  • S3 1.081

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair is testing triple top level, which is providing resistance around 1.0995 level. Closing of candles below this level may drive selling trades until 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0970, and below this, the next support holds around 1.0920, which marks 61.8% Fibonacci area. Overall, 1.0995 is a crucial trading level as above this; the EUR/USD pair may lead it’s prices further higher towards 1.1137. Bullish bias seems dominant today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.23373 after placing a high of 1.23630 and a low of 1.21807. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The Pound outperformed on Tuesday and rose to a level 1.236 highest since May 12 on the back of raised optimism about the EU-UK trade deal.

The next round of Brexit talks are due next week, and there have been headlines revolving that British negotiators could seal their first victory in next talks with the E.U. Reports suggested that the European Union was willing to shift its stance on fisheries in the next round of talks with Great Britain next week. If that happens, it would be a significant concession from the bloc in talks with the U.K. on their new relationship after Brexit.

The fisheries were important to the E.U. as most of the fishing takes place in U.K. waters, but the catch goes to E.U. fishers. U.K. wanted to ensure that after Brexit, which will take effect from next year, the U.K. as a newly independent coastal state could be solely in control of its waters and fish.

So far, the European Union has been reluctant to give up U.K. waters and demanded the things to remain the same as they were before in fisheries. However, on Tuesday, an E.U. official said that the bloc’s executive committee, which will negotiate with the U.K. in the name of all 27 E.U. member states, could ease its demand if the U.K. were to move as well.

According to Michel Barnier, surrendering the access to Britain’s fishing waters would be just one of the costs the British government must pay for a trade deal with the bloc. However, he faced pressure from other officials not to surrender to Britain too soon.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.259
  • R2 1.2477
  • R1 1.2405

Pivot Point 1.2292

  • S1 1.222
  • S2 1.2107
  • S3 1.2035

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD prices traded sharply bullish soaring from 1.2200 level to place a high around 1.2360 level. The resistance level of 1.2360 is extended by an upward channel, which can be seen on the 4-hour timeframe. The 50 EMA is bullish, but the MACD is suggesting odds of selling bias in the GBP/USD pair, perhaps because the Sterling is in the overbought zone. Bullish crossover of 1.2360 level may lead Sterling prices further higher towards 1.2460, while support is likely to be found around 1.2289 and 1.2165. Consider taking buying trades over 1.2292 and selling below the same level today.


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.539 after placing a high of 107.921 and a low of 107.399. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bearish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair showed a bearish trend on Tuesday but consolidated in a range between 107.3 and 107.9.

At 18:00 GMT, the Housing Price Index for March from the United States was dropped to 0.1% against the forecasted 0.6% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI for the year advanced to 3.9% against the expectations of 3.4% and supported the U.S. dollar. At19:00 GMT, the Consumer Confidence from Conference Board for May decreased to 86.6 from the forecasted 87.1 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The New Home Sales for April were recorded as 623K against the expected 429K and supported the U.S. dollar.

The closely watched Consumer Confidence from the United States declined and made the U.S. dollar weak across the board and ultimately dragged the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday. From the Japanese side, at 4:50 GMT, the Services Producer Price Index (SPPI) for the year was dropped to 1.0% against the forecasted 1.3%and weighed on Japanese Yen. At 9:30 GMT, All Industrial activities for March came in line with the expectations of -3.8%. At 10:00 GMT, the Core CPI for the year from Bank of Japan also dropped to -0.1% from the expected 0.0% and weighed on Japanese Yen.

The Governor of Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, said that the central bank was ready to ease monetary policy further. To add more stimulus measures, the bank decided to expand its loan programs, cut the rates further, and ramp up the risky asset purchases. In his semiannual testimony to parliament, Kuroda said that Bank of Japan was ready to do whatever it can to ensure markets were stable. He added that the stability of markets was its first importance now because once the pandemic was over, Japan’s economy could resume a solid recovery path.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108.39
  • R2 108.16
  • R1 107.86

Pivot Point 107.63

  • S1 107.33
  • S2 107.1
  • S3 106.79

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair continues to trade choppy sessions within the same trading 107.950 – 107.350. Above 107.950 level, we may see USD/JPY prices heading towards the next resistance level of 108.330. The 50 EMA is currently supporting the USD/JPY around 107.350. Breakout of USD/JPY support area of 107.35 can lead the USD/JPY prices towards 106.850. So let’s consider taking buying trades over 107.63 and selling below the same level today. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, May 26 – Tether (USDT) now Third-Largest Cryptocurrency by Market Cap; XRP Down to Fourth

The crypto market has spent the day trying to slowly regain the lost value. However, most of the cryptocurrencies failed in doing so, which triggered a small pullback.  Bitcoin is currently trading for $8,893, which represents an increase of 0.52% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 0.4% on the day, while XRP lost 0.06%.

THETA took the position of today’s biggest daily gainer, with gains of 16.53%. Theta Fuel lost 19% of its daily value, making it the most prominent daily loser.

Bitcoin’s dominance increased quite a bit since we last reported, with its value currently at 66.11%. This value represents a 0.22% difference to the upside.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased when compared to yesterday’s value, with its current value being $249.89 billion. This value represents a decrease of $5.87 billion when compared to the value it had yesterday.

What happened in the past 24 hours

Tether

Tether (USDT) has managed to overtake Ripple’s XRP and became the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Ripple has, as a consequence, fell to fourth place.

While many explain this event with XRP’s failure to gain adoption amongst retail investors, Tether’s insane volume, as well as constant total market cap additions, made this “dethroning” event possible.

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization tried to recover from its most recent bear push which brought it under $9,000. It tried to revitalize and go for the $9,000 push even though the volume was quite low. As expected, the move got stopped at $8,980 and Bitcoin retraced to $8,820, where the support stopped the move.


Bitcoin is currently trading between the $8,820 support and $8,980 resistance. Breaking above the resistance level might trigger another strong push up, while a break below the support has less of a chance of turning into a sharp move down.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $8,980                                           1: $8,820

2: $9,120                                           2: $8,650

3: $9,250                                            3: $8,000

Ethereum

Ethereum has, after bouncing from the $198 level, started to recover and gain a bit of value slowly. However, the most recent Bitcoin move stopped Ether from freely rising even more, triggering a stagnation (or a slow retracement) phase.


Ethereum’s volume is incredibly small, while its RSI is in the middle of the value range, both suggesting that there is no independent move on the horizon.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $217.6                                            1: $198

2: $225.4                                           2: $193.6

3: $240                                               3: $185

Ripple

XRP’s chart looked a lot like Ethereum’s chart in the past couple of days. The now-fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap was slowly rising towards its $0.2 resistance, when it was stopped by Bitcoin’s retracement after failing to break $9,000. XRP retraced just slightly, and is already stabilizing.


XRP’s volume decreased slightly when compared to yesterday, while its RSI stayed in the middle of the value range.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $0.2                                               1: $0.19

2: $0.205                                           2: $0.1785

3: $0.214