Categories
Forex Videos

Forex Options Part 13! Selling a Vertical Spread…

 

Forex Options XIII – Selling a Vertical Spread

 

A vertical spread is a combination of options in which the trader buys a Call or Put and sells another Call or Put of the same underlying at a different strike.
Buying a Vertical Spread
We are long ( buying the vertical spread) when we buy the at-the-money or in-the-money option and sell an out-of-the-money option. A vertical spread is a strategy similar to a naked option. The selling of the out of the money call simply lowers its cost, as the trader is aware that the price is unlikely to move above the sold option’s strike level.
Traders buy vertical spreads when they are sure about the market direction, have a target for the move, and seek to optimize the cost of the trade.

Selling a Vertical Spread

We sell a vertical spread when we sell the at-the-money or in-the-money option and buy an out-of-the-money option. This is not a market-timing strategy, but a statistically-based move. The purpose of this is to profit from the decay and volatility drop, avoiding the unlimited risk of a naked option.

It is well known that the sellers make the majority of the money on options trading. That is because options will lose all its premium at expiration. Over 60% of all options that are out of the money expire worthless. This fact gives option sellers an advantage. The downside is that naked options involve the assumption of unlimited risk. The selling of an out-of-the-money option and the simultaneous purchase of a further out-of-the-money option solves this issue. This strategy allows traders to profit from high volatility and market-timing situations such as market tops and bottoms.

Key factors to maximize the trade potential of a vertical spread

  • The implied volatility is in the upper range, historically, the higher, the better to maximize the amount of premium received.
  • Identify support and resistance levels on the underlying’s price action, and sell the option whose strike price is at or beyond that level ( so that the chance to cross it is minimized).
    Sell the call with a delta of 40 or a put with a delta of -40. That way, the chance of the option to expire in the money is below 50%, while the premium is still acceptable.
  • Choose options with less than one month to expiration to make the time decay more pronounced
  • Look for the situation where the volatility of the sold option is higher than the one you intend to buy.

Market timing

Option writing can be used in place of option buying to take advantage of a market-timing strategy when volatility is very high. Inexperienced traders usually make the mistake of buying naked options to profit from the market movements without caring for volatility, losing money, long-term, because the more expensive the cost is, the larger the movement of the underlying to compensate for the costs of the trade. Furthermore, a posterior drop in volatility will further reduce the options’ value, hurting the naked position.
The best alternative to option buying when you believe the underlying is going to move in a determined direction and volatility is high, is selling a vertical spread. When you have reasons to believe that the market is going to rally or remain flat, you may sell a vertical put spread, usually called “Bull Put Spread.” Conversely, if you consider the market is going to fall, flat, or with limited movement, you may decide to sell a vertical call spread, called “Bear Call Spread.”

Position management

To optimize the profits, you should look at your strategy’s risk-profile curve at expiration to determine your maximum potential profit.
Also, check the risk curves before expiration to determine how far against your position should move the market to create a loss equal to your maximum profit, and determine the level at which to cut losses. The main idea is we don’t want reward-to-risk trades below 1.

Stop-loss
  • Close the trade if the loss surpasses the max-profit value.
  • If you consider that some significant support or
  • resistance was broken and the scenario you considered for the trade is no longer valid.

Taking profits

Close the trade if your profit reaches 80% of the maximum profit potential.
The idea behind this is that holding the trade trying to get the last 20% of the profits is wrong from the risk-reward point of view, as the R/R is
RR =0.25.

Categories
Forex Options

FX Options Market Combined Volume Expiries for 11th September 2020

Thank you for visiting the Forex Academy FX Options market combined volume expiries section. Each day, where available, we will bring you notable maturities in FX Options of amounts of $100 million-plus, and where these large combined maturities at specified currency exchange rates often have a magnetic effect on price action, especially in the hours leading to their maturities, which happens daily at 10.00 AM Eastern time. This is because the big institutional players hedge their positions accordingly. Each option expiry should be considered ‘in-play’ with a good chance of a strike if labelled in red, still in play and a possible strike if labelled in orange and ‘out of play’ and an unlikely strike if labelled in blue, with regard to the likelihood of price action meeting the strike price at maturity.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………

FX option expiries for Friday September 11 at the 10am NY cut

EUR/USD euro amount
  •  1.1800 746m
  •  1.1850 1.0bn
  •  1.1900 901m

EURUSD pair has found support above 1.1800 with ECB yesterday practically giving the pair a green light for a move higher with its stance on current exchange rate levels.

USD/JPY USD amount

  •  105.00 437m
  •  106.00 508m
  •  106.35 479m
  •  107.00 351m
  •  107.15 750m

USDJPY price action is fading to the upside in a wedge formation. UK / Japanese trade agreement just announced may provide the path for a firmer yen.

AUD/USD AUD amount

  •  0.7200 694m

AUDUSD pair is in a strong bull trend. The option expiry is out of play.

USD/CAD USD amount

  •  1.3220 972m

USDCAD is oversold but remains in a bear trend with a confirmed area of resistance. The option is out of play.

………………………………………………………………………………….

As you can see on the preferred 1-hour chart(s), we have also plotted the expiration levels at the various exchange rate maturities and we have also labelled in red, orange and blue.  Therefore, if you see option expiry exchange rates labelled in red these should be considered in-play, because we believe there is a greater chance of the expiry maturing at these levels based on technical analysis at the time of writing. There is still a lesser possibility of a strike if they are in orange and so these are ‘in-play’ too. However, if we have labelled them in blue, they should be considered ‘not in-play’ and therefore price action would be unlikely to reach these levels, which are often referred to as Strikes, at the time of the 10 AM New York cut.

Our technical analysis is based on exchange rates which may be several hours earlier in the day and may not reflect price action at the time of the maturities. Also, we have not factored in economic data releases or keynote speeches by policymakers, or potential market volatility leading up to the cut.

Although we have added some technical analysis, we suggest you take the levels and plot them onto your own trading charts and incorporate the information into your own trading methodology in order to use the information to your advantage. Remember the higher the amount, the larger the gravitational pull towards the exchange rate maturity at 10:00 AM Eastern time.

If you want to learn how forex option expiries affect price action in the spot FX market see our educational article by clicking here: https://bit.ly/2VR2Nji

DISCLAIMER: Please note that this information is for educational purposes. Also, the maturities will look more or less likely to become a strike at 10 AM NY time due to exchange rate fluctuations resulting in a different perspective with regard to technical analysis, and also due to upcoming economic data releases for the associated pairs.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Sept 11 – DeFi Sector Experiences Volatility; The Rest Of The Market Stable

The cryptocurrency market has experienced large volatility in the DeFi sector, while the rest of the market was relatively stable. Bitcoin is currently trading for $10,301, which represents a decrease of 0.68% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 0.11% on the day, while XRP lost 0.73%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

If we take a look at the top100 cryptocurrencies, aelf gained 152.47% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. Flexacoin (45.07%) and Ampleforth (35.77%) also did great. On the other hand, the SushiSwap lost 14.95%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Elrond’s loss of 7.82% and Serum’s loss of 6.08%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level experienced a massive drop since our last report, with its value currently being at 54.44 9.29%. This value represents a 4.85% difference to the downside when compared to when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has gone up in the past 24 hours. Its current value is $337.66 billion, which represents an increase of $5.84 billion when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has spent another day trying to push past the $10,360 resistance. However, every attempt in the past few days ended up in BTC passing the level, but then coming back under it due to being unable to confirm its position above. While the resistance level weakens each time Bitcoin attempts to pass it, it brings more bears to the game as most people intuitively trade in the direction opposite to the most recent failed attempt.

If Bitcoin doesn’t pass $10,360 soon, we should look for support at $9,600, and ultimately at the 200-day SMA ($9,080).

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:
  • Price is below the 50-period EMA and right above the 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly closer to the middle than the top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (49.57)
  • Volume is stable
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $10,360                                1: $10,015

2: $10,500                                2: $9,870

3: $10,630                                 3: $9,600

Ethereum

Ethereum has, unlike Bitcoin, managed to gain some value as it reached past its $360 level. However, the move has ended and Ethereum is now stuck in a narrow range between $360 to the downside and $371 to the upside. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has repeatedly tried to get past it, but with no success.

Ethereum’s break above $371 should establish a short-term bullishness, while a break below $360 is not as relevant, and we may look for $340 as the next support.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:
  • The price is above its 21-period while it is currently crossing the 50-period EMA
  • The price is near its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (52.77)
  • Volume is low and stable
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $371                                     1: $360

2: $400                                     2: $340

3: $415                                      3: $300

Ripple

XRP failed to break its immediate resistance of $0.2454, which triggered a small pullback. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap doesn’t seem like it will be able to break this level any time soon unless it gets a massive influx of bulls. Unlike the aforementioned two cryptocurrencies, XRP is a bit more stable, and failing to push above a resistance level doesn’t necessarily mean that it will attempt a move towards the downside.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:
  • The price is just below its 21-period EMA and well below its 50-period EMA
  • Price is sitting at the middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral and descending (47.20)
  • Volume is low and stable
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.2454                                  1: $0.235 

2: $0.266                                    2: $0.227

3: $0.285                                   3: $0.221

 

Categories
Forex Videos

Forex Options Part 12… Buying a Straddle!

 

Forex Options XII – Buying a Straddle

Straddle buying involves buying a Call and a Put at the same time and strike. There is a variant called Strangle, where the strike prices differ. This strategy is exclusive of options, and, theoretically, allows the trader to profit from a large movement at a key level when the likely direction is unknown, for instance, on a Central Bank news release, where the moment of the statement is known, but there is no way to known the posterior movement of the forex pair.
Since the cost of the straddle is expensive ( two premiums), it shows the lowest probability of all options strategies of making profits (and even more so on strangles). Thus, the best moments to buy it is when volatility is at its lowest point, and a sudden jump can be forecasted in advance of the rest of the participants.

Thus, the key elements to be decided to use Straddles are:
There is some key market factor that makes you believe a large move is ready to occur.
The market is quiet, and the implied volatility is at the lowest extreme.
There is enough time to expiration for the market move.
The reward is equally good, no matter which direction will move the underlying. That means making the trade delta-neutral by being as close to the current spot price as possible.

The dangers

As Jay Kaeppel reminds in his book,
“The goal in option trading is to put the odds as far in your favor as possible each time you enter a trade. Paying a lot of time premium on both a call option and a put option is not consistent with this goal and should generally be avoided.”

Time to expiration

Traders usually make the mistake of buying short-term straddles because they are cheaper, but that is wrong. The asset must make a large enough movement to pay for the two premiums. Thus, it is essential to let it the time to do it. Traders must analyze equal moves historically and determine the proper time to expiration. Of course, if the expected move has to do with a determined news release, that date, plus the expected time for the posterior movement, will set the correct timeframe.
You also have to take into account that it is advisable to close the trade earlier than the last two weeks before expiration unless one of them is deep in the money. In this case, it is best to hold if there are reasons to think the move is not over.

Volatility high

When buying a straddle when implied volatility is relatively high, and, following the purchase, volatility collapses, you’ll be hurt twice because the time premium part of the price will collapse as well. Under this circumstance, the probability of making a profit is close to null.

The Opportunity

If you focus your straddle purchases on very low implied volatility, you’ll profit not only on the price movement of the underlying asset but also on the rise of volatility that will increase both the call and the put.

Exiting the trade

Stop-loss

The best way to cut losses is to plan the trade so that the premium is low due to the low implied volatility. But, besides this,
You can plan to close the trade if it has not made profits before the last two weeks before expiration, since after that, the time premium decay accelerates its decline.
Cut your losses to a determined amount or percentage, for example, 50% of the total price paid. Let it go until expiration if you’ve decided that the premium is your risk. The downside is your position size will be smaller than if you choose to cut your loss at 50% of the cost.

Taking profits

There are several methods for taking profits.

  • Locking-in profits after the position doubles its value, by selling 50% of the position ( it requires to being long several straddles, of course), and trailing-stop the rest of the open position.
  • Setting a profit target, based on the technical analysis of support/resistance of the underlying.
  • Just use trail stop all the way.
    There is no guarantee that these approaches to stop-loss and take-profit will improve results. Still, it is important to have planned all the trade details to avoid emotionally driven errors.
Categories
Forex Videos

Forex Options Part 11… Buying a Calendar Spread!

 

Forex Options XI – Buying a Calendar Spread

The Calendar Spread is a strategy only available on options. As we already know, Options on assets come with different expiration dates, and each one offers different implied volatility levels. What’s more, at times, they show strikingly different values. Traders can use this situation to take advantage of the disparity by selling the option that trades at a significantly high price and buying the cheaper one.

The main factors for using calendar spreads are:
The written option should trade at least at 15% higher implied volatility than the option bought.
If the overall volatility is high, it is wrong to use it. It works best when the bought option shows low implied volatility.
The sold option expiry is within the next 45 days.
There are reasons to think that the underlying market will remain in a range.

A calendar spread is a neutral position that is entered by buying one option of a determined strike price and expiration month, and selling at the same time another option of the same type and strike price, but with less time until expiration than the option bought. The right time to enter a calendar spread is when the short-term implied volatility is over 15% higher than the long-term one. The higher the implied volatility of the option sold relative to the option bought, the higher the likelihood of profit.

The dangers

A significant advance or decline in the underlying makes the trade very unprofitable.
A sharp decline in implied volatility degrades the odds of a profit.
Therefore, the less time to expiration for the option sold, the better, provided it allows enough premium to have profits.

Factors to profitability

According to Jay Kaeppel, to maximize profits, we must consider the following:
Only trade a calendar spread when the volatility gap between sold and bought option is higher than 15%
Rank the volatility from 0 to 10 land trade calendar spreads only when below 6, ideally in the 1-2 range. If volatility increases on a trade entered at these volatility levels, it would return extraordinary profits, because the bought long-term option will increase much more than the short-term option that was sold.
Don’t sell options with more than 45 days to expiration.
The options traded must show deltas within 30 to 65 on calls and -30 to -65 on puts. As a rule of thumb, avoid trading options with more than one strike price from the current asset price.
Ideal markets for a calendar spread are assets moving in a trading range, where supports and resistances are clearly identified.

A decline in volatility

A decrease in volatility is the worst that can happen on a calendar spread trade. To understand why we have to remember that we sell the short-term option and buy the longer-term option. The longer the time to expiration, the higher the sensitivity of the option to volatility changes. That means a rise in volatility would result in increased profits because the option bought will increase more than the option sold. Conversely, a volatility drop would drive the trade to the losing side as the price of option bought sinks relative to the option sold.

References: “The option’s trader guide to probability, volatility and timing” by Jay Kaeppel

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, September 10 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – ECB Monetary Policy In Focus

It will be a big day for the European pairs as the European Central Bank is due to report it’s minimum bid rate along with the Press Conference to determine the monetary policy. Besides, the U.S. Unemployment Claims and PPI data will be the main market mover of the market.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18027 after placing a high of 1.18339 and a low of 1.17525. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The market sentiment was sour on Wednesday amid the pause in the AstraZeneca & Oxford University vaccine’s final clinical trials. The trials were paused due to an unexplained illness in one participant. This weighed on risk sentiment and kept the EUR/USD pair under pressure on Wednesday.

The much-awaited decision of the European Central Bank monetary policy will announce on Thursday, and the market participants have started to bets on it. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar surging due to increased pressure on its rivals dropped on Wednesday and caused a surge in EUR/USD pair.

The ECB is concerned about the appreciation in Euro and increased deflationary pressure and the uncertainty around Europe’s coronavirus situation. The bank is set to announce no changes in its upcoming monetary policy for the second month in September. The bank expanded it’s Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program with EUR 600 billion in June.

The interest rates on main refinancing operations are at 0.00%, on the marginal lending facility are at 0.25%, and the deposit facility is at -0.50%. All are expected to remain unchanged in this monetary policy meeting. The PEPP will also remain unchanged at EUR 1350 Billion. The speech from the ECB President Cristine Lagarde will remain under focus by traders to find fresh clues about the EUR/USD pair.

For August, the Eurozone inflation came in negative when the annualized consumer price index fell by 0.2% versus the July’s rise by 0.4% and raised concerns about the local economy. The impact of coronavirus has been rising as the coronavirus is surging in the Eurozone. To combat coronavirus’s economic impact, ECB expanded its balance sheet from 4500 B euros to 6424B euros. The long-term Eurozone inflation is also gloomy and shows a downward trend.

Traders await that the euro appreciation will remain under the focus of Lagarde’s speech, and measures that she will announce to cope with it will provide massive movements in EUR/USD prices on Thursday. The Eurozone economy outlook from the European Central Bank will also give clues on the EUR/USD pair.

On the U.S. side, the Consumer Credit in July dropped to 12.2B from the forecasted 12.9B and weighed on the U.S. dollar that helped EUR/USD move upward. EUR/USD pair posted gains after falling for three consecutive days on Wednesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1795 1.1820 1.1857
1.1758 1.1882
1.1733 1.1919

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD has recovered a bit to trade at 1.1820 level ahead of the ECB Monetary policy decision due to coming out during the late European session. ECB isn’t expected to change its rate; however, the press conference will be the EUR/USD pair’s main mover. On the higher side, the pair may find resistance at 1.1860 level along with support at 1.1797 level. Below 1.1797, the pair may drop towards 1.1755 level. Conversely, a bullish breakout of 1.1825 level can lead EUR/USD prices towards 1.1866.


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.29986 after placing a high of 1.30231 and a low of 1.28847. Overall the movement of the GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. After falling for two consecutive days and posting massive losses, the GBP/USD pair dropped on Wednesday in an earlier trading session near the lowest level since July 28. However, in the late trading session, the pair successfully recovered its daily gains and reversed its direction and started posting gains.

The pair followed its previous day bearish trend in the early trading session on Wednesday that the new Internal Market Bill news from the U.K. Parliament pushed. The new bill was issued to protect the United Kingdom’s jobs after the transition period ends next December. 

The bill raised fears that it might impact the relationship between the U.K. and the E.U. It could re-write the parts of the Brexit withdrawal agreement related to the Northern Ireland protocol. In response to the new bill news, the E.U. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that breaching the singed withdrawal agreement would break the international law and undermine trust. This weighed on the local currency GBP and dragged the pair towards the lowest level since July 28.

However, the pair’s downward movement was further supported by the latest news that weighed on risk sentiment that AstraZeneca & Oxford University vaccine’s final clinical trials were paused after an unexplained illness was found in a participant.

Whereas, on the U.S. front, the U.S. dollar came under pressure on Wednesday after rising for the past few days on the back of weak rival currencies performance. The weakness in the U.S. dollar was ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday. The U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.1% on Wednesday to 93.16 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that supported the GBP/USD pair’s movement.

On the data front, the Consumer Credit for July dropped to 12.2B against the forecasted 12.9B and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further support to the GBP/USD pair. On Wednesday, PM Boris Johnson said that they must act to avoid another lockdown as virus cases were rising in England. He was referring to the new rule that restricts the gathering of more than six people. The new rule can issue fines or make arrests in case of breach of law.

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3079 1.3125 1.3196
1.3008 1.3242
1.2962 1.3313

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair has formed a Doji pattern over 1.2901 area, and the support level is extended by an upward trendline on four hourly timeframes. On the higher side, the pair may face immediate resistance at 1.3021, and above this, the Cable may head towards 61.8% Fibo level of 1.3154 level. Jobless claims data may play the role today.


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 106.174 after placing a high of 106.272 and a low of 105.785. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. After falling on Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair gained traction on Wednesday and started rising. The pair fell to 6 days lowest level on Wednesday in the early trading session but reversed its direction and moved upward on the back of the upbeat market sentiment.

The market mood improved on Wednesday and made it difficult for the safe-haven Japanese Yen to find demand and pushed the pair USD/JPY higher. After falling for three consecutive days, the equity market was raised on Wednesday with the S&P 500 index up by 1.85% and confirmed the risk-on market sentiment. The U.S. Treasury bond yields for a 10-year note also rose to 2.2% and supported the upward market sentiment.

Moreover, the U.S. Dollar Index also rose on Wednesday to 93.66 level the highest since August 12 and supported the upward U.S. dollar movement. 

However, the USD/JPY par gains were capped by multiple factors, including the US-China tussles and negative vaccine news.

On Wednesday, the long-awaited vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University stopped its final stage clinical trials due to an unexplained illness found in one of the participants. This news raised concerns over vaccines’ development and, ultimately, on the economic recovery and capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the rising tensions between the U.S. & China after the latest comments from President Donald Trump and his administration regarding the tech fight and bringing back the production to America raised fears for the phase-one deal completion. These tensions and the lingering fight on the South China Sea have weighed on market sentiment that undermined the risk sentiment and supported the Japanese Yen, ultimately capping further gains in the USD/JPY pair.

Moreover, the new Brexit worries after the U.K. introduced new potential internal law that could change the initial withdrawal agreement terms related to the Northern Ireland border, also weighed on risk sentiment. The uncertainty regarding a Brexit deal between the E.U. & U.K. also weighed on market sentiment and limited the USD/JPY pair’s gains.

On the data front, the M2 Money Stock for the year in Japan rose to 8.6% in August from 8.2% and supported the Japanese Yen that capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair. At 10:59 GMT, the Prelim Machine Tool Orders decreased by -23.3% in August compared to July’s -31.1%. On the U.S. front, the JOLTS Job Openings in July rose to 6.62M against the forecasted 6.05M and supported the U.S. dollar that added further support to the USD/JPY pair on Wednesday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.9500 106.2700 106.6800
105.5500 106.9900
105.2300 107.4000

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Thursday, the USD/JPY is consolidating at 106.050, with a resistance mark of 106.480 level. An upward crossover of 106.480 level may extend further buying trend until the 106.840level, and the violation of this level can extend buying until the next resistance level of 107.150. On the downside, the safe-haven USD/JPY currency may gain support at 105.620 and 105.280. Let’s consider taking a sell trade below 106.024 level as the MACD and RSI also suggest selling bias. Good luck! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

CAD/JPY: A massive round number holding the key

CAD/JPY produced a bullish inside bar yesterday. The price had a bounce at the same level earlier and made a bullish move. The daily chart suggests that the price has some space to travel towards the North. However, if a bullish inside bar is followed by a bearish engulfing candle, it ends up being prolific for the sellers. The H4 chart looks bullish. On the other hand, the H1 chart looks a bit bearish biased. Thus, traders are to be very watchful to trade in the pair. Let us now have a look at three vital charts.

Chart 1 CAD/JPY Daily Chart

The chart shows that it had a bounce at the level of 80.000 earlier. It is a massive round number. It pushed the price towards the North, and the price made a bearish move, closing within the level. Yesterday’s candle came out as a bullish inside bar. As far as the round numbered support is concerned, the price may make a bullish move. However, if the price gets bearish and ends up producing a bearish engulfing candle closing below 80.000, the sellers may go short in the pair aggressively and drive the price towards the level of 78.300. On the other hand, if the price gets bullish, it may find its next resistance around 81.400.

Chart 2 CAD/JPY H4 Chart

The chart shows that the price upon having a bounce at the level of 80.800 produced a spinning top and headed towards the North. It made a bullish breakout at the level of 80.600. The pair had a rejection at 80.800. It has been in a bearish correction. The level of 80.600 may work as a level of support. If the level ends up producing a bullish reversal candle, the buyers may go long above the level of 80.800. The price may find its next resistance around 81.400.

Chart 3 CAD/JPY H1 Chart

The price had a rejection at the level of 80.800 twice. It produced a bearish engulfing candle. The pair is trading around the neckline at 80.640. A bearish reversal candle may attract the sellers to go short in the pair and drive the price towards the South. The price may find its next support around 80.150. On the other hand, the buyers are to wait to go long above the level of 80.800.

The H1 chart looks bearish biased. However, the daily and the H4 chart look bullish. Considering these three charts, it seems that the pair may end up having another bullish day.

Categories
Forex Options

FX Options Market Combined Volume Expiries for 10th September 2020

Thank you for visiting the Forex Academy FX Options market combined volume expiries section. Each day, where available, we will bring you notable maturities in FX Options of amounts of $100 million-plus, and where these large combined maturities at specified currency exchange rates often have a magnetic effect on price action, especially in the hours leading to their maturities, which happens daily at 10.00 AM Eastern time. This is because the big institutional players hedge their positions accordingly. Each option expiry should be considered ‘in-play’ with a good chance of a strike if labelled in red, still in play and a possible strike if labelled in orange and ‘out of play’ and an unlikely strike if labelled in blue, with regard to the likelihood of price action meeting the strike price at maturity.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………

FX option expiries for Sept 10 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.

– EUR/USD: EUR amounts

  • 1.1700 587m
  • 1.1780 1.0bn
  • 1.1790 517m
  • 1.1800 740m
  • 1.1890 789m

EURUSD is flat ahead of ECB rate decision and US data up later which will affect all of our pairs today.

– GBP/USD: GBP amounts

  • 1.2960 201m
  • 1.3090 262m

GBPUSD found significant support just below the 1.2900 level after a substantial fall due to Brexit woes and a firmer US dollar. Price action looking muted at the key 1.30 level.

– USD/JPY: USD amounts

  • 105.00 923m
  • 105.80 780m
  • 105.85 1.1bn
  • 106.00 1.9bn
  • 106.50 660m
  • 106.75 557m
  • 107.00 650m
  • 107.05 560m
  • 107.11 1.2bn

USDJPY has found an area of resistance and if pulling back towards a cluster of option expiries.

– NZD/USD: NZD amounts

  • 0.6600 312m

NZDUSD is overbought and has found resistance ay 0.6680 and is moving lower. Potential for a strike at the single option, however, there is a floor at this level.

………………………………………………………………………………….

As you can see on the preferred 1-hour chart(s), we have also plotted the expiration levels at the various exchange rate maturities and we have also labelled in red, orange and blue.  Therefore, if you see option expiry exchange rates labelled in red these should be considered in-play, because we believe there is a greater chance of the expiry maturing at these levels based on technical analysis at the time of writing. There is still a lesser possibility of a strike if they are in orange and so these are ‘in-play’ too. However, if we have labelled them in blue, they should be considered ‘not in-play’ and therefore price action would be unlikely to reach these levels, which are often referred to as Strikes, at the time of the 10 AM New York cut.

Our technical analysis is based on exchange rates which may be several hours earlier in the day and may not reflect price action at the time of the maturities. Also, we have not factored in economic data releases or keynote speeches by policymakers, or potential market volatility leading up to the cut.

Although we have added some technical analysis, we suggest you take the levels and plot them onto your own trading charts and incorporate the information into your own trading methodology in order to use the information to your advantage. Remember the higher the amount, the larger the gravitational pull towards the exchange rate maturity at 10:00 AM Eastern time.

If you want to learn how forex option expiries affect price action in the spot FX market see our educational article by clicking here: https://bit.ly/2VR2Nji

DISCLAIMER: Please note that this information is for educational purposes. Also, the maturities will look more or less likely to become a strike at 10 AM NY time due to exchange rate fluctuations resulting in a different perspective with regard to technical analysis, and also due to upcoming economic data releases for the associated pairs.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Sept 10 – Ethereum Double-Digit Gains; Crypto – S&P500 Correlation nears All-Time-Highs

The cryptocurrency market recovered today as Bitcoin bulls pushed past $10,360. On top of that, Ethereum skyrocketed, netting double-digit gains on the day. Bitcoin is currently trading for $10,391, which represents an increase of 3.90% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 11.36% on the day, while XRP gained 5.48%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

If we take a look at the top100 cryptocurrencies, Solana gained 42.61% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. Yearn.finance (24.55%) and Aave (24.03%) also did great. On the other hand, the Hyperion lost 24.27%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Blockstack’s loss of 5.21% and Tron’s loss of 2.60%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level decreased slightly since our last report, with its value currently being at 59.29%. This value represents a 0.60% difference to the downside when compared to when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has gone up slightly in the past 24 hours. Its current value is $331.80 billion, which represents an increase of $4.90 billion when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has spent the past 24 hours trying to push past the $10,360 resistance level, which is key if the largest cryptocurrency by market cap wants to continue its bullish presence. Even though the level has fallen, BTC needs to reliably pass it and confirm its position above it in order to encourage more bulls to enter the market. If Bitcoin positions itself above $10,360 well, the influx of bullish pressure will most likely send its price further up towards $10,500 or even $10,630

If, however, Bitcoin manages to fall below $10,000 and confirms its position below it, we can expect to see a bear push towards $9,600 and ultimately to the 200-day SMA ($9,080).

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:
  • Price is below 50-period EMA while being above its 21-period EMA
  • Price is hitting the top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral and pushing towards the upside (54.00)
  • Volume is stable
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $10,360                                1: $10,015

2: $10,500                                2: $9,870

3: $10,630                                 3: $9,600

Ethereum

Ethereum skyrocketed in the past 24 hours, with its price reaching double-digit gains. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap overcame the initial rejection of the $360 level and ultimately pushed past it, reaching the $371 level and getting stopped out there. The next move Ethereum makes will be crucial and will determine its short-term future.

If Ethereum manages to pull off a confirmation move above $360, we can expect a push towards $371. However, if that does not happen, we can expect ETH to return to its previous levels.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:
  • The price is well above its 21-period while being slightly above its 50-period EMA
  • The price is above its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral and pushing towards the upside (57.49)
  • Volume is low and stable
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $360                                     1: $340

2: $371                                     2: $300

3: $400                                      3: $289

Ripple

XRP made a move towards the upside like Ethereum and Bitcoin, but its move was more alike to Bitcoin’s than Ethereum’s. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap managed to gather some bullish pressure and push towards the $0.2454, which barely touched at the time of writing). However, just like with Bitcoin, XRP did not conquer this resistance level yet, and it will have to confirm its position above it in order to bring the attention of more bulls.

XRP might face another resistance level in the form of its 50-period moving average, which sits very close to its current price.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:
  • The price is just above its 21-period EMA and right above its 50-period EMA
  • Price is above its top Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral and moving towards the upside (54.76)
  • Volume is low and stable
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.2454                                  1: $0.235 

2: $0.266                                    2: $0.227

3: $0.285                                   3: $0.221

 

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

What Should You Know About ‘Loans to Private Sector’ Fundamental Forex Driver

Introduction

Private Sector has a significant and crucial role to play in the economic growth of capitalist economies. The development of private sectors can single-handedly drive the GDP and development of the country forward. Credits and loan availability to the private sector can significantly impact the pace of expansion of the country. Hence, an analysis of the loans disbursed to the private sector can offer us much insight into the country’s growth.

What are Loans to Private Sector?

Loan

It is a credit incurred by an individual or entity. The creditor is generally a financial institution or the Government. The lenders give borrowers money on certain conditions that can include terms relating to the repayment date, interest charges, or other transactional fees. A loan can be secured or unsecured. In secured loans, the loan is given out against collateral like property, mortgages, or securities.

Private Sector

It refers to the part of the economy, which is not under state or central government’s control. The private sector industries are mostly privately owned and for-profit businesses. Private sectors can produce productive jobs, higher income, productivity growth. When private sectors are complemented with the Government sector’s support, the growth rate is multiplied many folds.

Loans to Private Sector

It refers to credits provided to the private sector by financial corporations. Credit can be as loans, nonequity securities purchases, and trade credits, etc. Financial corporations here can be monetary authorities (ex: Central Banks), finance and leasing companies, lenders, pension funds, insurance companies, and foreign exchange companies.

How can Loans to Private Sector numbers be used for analysis?

Most modern economies are capitalist economies, i.e., most of the GDP is derived from the private sector that operates on profitability. Economic indicators like employment, wage growth, the standard of living, GDP, etc. are all heavily dependent on the private sector. In the United States, the private sector contributes more than 85% of the total GDP. Hence, private sector growth is almost equivalent to the country’s growth.

In capitalist economies, the private sectors are competitive, provide high employment, better income, and lie at the forefront of technological innovation in general. Due to competition amongst fellow business organizations, the benefits of working in the private sector far exceed that of the public sector.

Credit plays a vital role in the economic growth of capitalist economies. Credit serves as a crucial channel for money transmission from central authorities to the private sector. Loans can fund production, consumption, and capital formation for businesses that, in turn, generate revenue for the country.

Loans can help private businesses to expand beyond just the cash in hand and speed up their growth rate. The ease with which credit facilities are made available to the private sector will largely control the pace of economic growth. The Government and the Central Bank authorities’ support in providing credit to private industries have historically proven to be very beneficial for the state and country’s urbanization and rapid growth.

On the flip side, a decrease or lack of credit availability can significantly impact small and medium businesses, resulting in halting expansion plans, laying off employees, or in the worst close filing bankruptcy.

The public sectors can only take care of the essential services and set rules and regulations in different areas. The required development has to come from the private sector. But it is the private sector that can boost economic growth through investment, employment, competition, innovation, and better wages.

In the underdeveloped economies, the Government’s support in credit and business support to the private sector has mostly helped uplift people from poverty. In the developing economies, private sector investments have dramatically improved the standard of living for many countries like China, Japan, and India. Private sectors of developed countries already enjoy the support from the public and banking sector, which explains their high GDP and consistent growth rate.

Impact on Currency

An increase in loans to the private sector is a positive sign for the economy. It indicates more businesses are now creditworthy and are working on expansionary plans. A healthy increase in the number of loans to the private sector is good for the future economy. An increase in loans to the private sector also indicates the market is more liquid, and the currency will lose value for the same set of goods and services. Conversely, a decrease in loans to the private sector means the market is less liquid, and money is costly. Currency appreciates, but economic growth is difficult to achieve.

Loans to private sector statistics are useful for the Governments and international investors and companies to check the health of the private sectors in a particular economy. International companies open businesses where ease of doing business is high. For them, it is a useful indicator. Private Sector Loan is not a significant economic indicator for the FOREX markets. Hence it is a low impact indicator.

Economic Reports

The World Bank collects domestic credit data to the Private Sector as a GDP percentage on their official website. The dataset is annual and covers most countries. The datasets are updated once they receive the latest data from the respective countries.

Sources of Loans to Private Sector

The World Bank’s Domestic Credit to private sector reports is available here.

We can also find a consolidated list of Loans to the private sector on the Trading Economics website.

How Loans to Private SectorAffects The Price Charts?

Loans to the private sector is not a statistic most forex traders keep an eye when making their trades. The lack of interest is because it is considered a their-tier leading indicator. It is, however, essential to know how the release of this fundamental economic indicator affects the forex price charts.

The Eurozone private sector loans data is released monthly by the European Central Bank about 28 days after the month ends. It measures the change in the total value of new loans issued to consumers and businesses in the private sector. The most recent release was on July 27, 2020, 8.00 AM GMT can be accessed here. A more in-depth review of the economic news release can be accessed at the ECB website.

Below is a screenshot of the Forex Factory official website. On the right side, we can see a legend that indicates the level of impact the Fundamental Indicator has on the EUR.

As can be seen, low impact is expected on the EUR.

The screengrab below is of the most recent change in private loans in the EU. In June 2020, private loans grew by 3% as compared to the same period in 2019. This change represented a flat growth from the previous release. Based on our fundamental analysis, this should be positive for the EUR.

Now, let’s see how this positive news release made an impact on the Forex price charts.

EUR/USD: Before Eurozone Private Sector Loans release on July 
27, 2020, Just Before 8.00 AM GMT

From the above chart, the EUR/USD pair is trading on a neutral trend before the data release. The candles are forming around the flattening 20-period Moving Average. This trend is an indication of relative market inactivity.

EUR/USD: After Eurozone Private Sector Loans release on July 
27, 2020, 8.00 AM GMT

After the news release, the pair forms a 15-minute bullish candle as EUR becomes stronger as expected. However, the news release was not strong enough to cause a shift in the pair’s trend since the pair continued to trade in the previously observed neutral trend.

Now let’s see how this news release impacted other major currency pairs.

EUR/JPY: Before Eurozone Private Sector Loans release on July 
27, 2020, Just Before 8.00 AM GMT

Before the news release, EUR/JPY traded in a similar neutral trend as observed with the EUR/USD with the candles forming around a flattening 20-period Moving Average.

EUR/JPY: After Eurozone Private Sector Loans release on July 
27, 2020, 8.00 AM GMT

As observed with the EUR/USD pair, EUR/JPY formed a 15-minute bullish candle after the news release as expected. The subsequent trend does now significantly shift.

EUR/CAD: Before Eurozone Private Sector Loans release on July 
27, 2020, Just Before 8.00 AM GMT

EUR/CAD: After Eurozone Private Sector Loans release on July 
27, 2020, 8.00 AM GMT

The EUR/CAD pair shows a similar neutral trading pattern as the EUR/USD and EUR/JPY pair before the news release. After the news release, the pair forms a 15-minute bullish candle but later continued trading in the earlier observed neutral trend as the 20-period Moving Average flattens.

Bottom Line

Loans to the private sector play a vital role in stimulating a country’s economic growth. From the above analyses, the release of the loan growth data has an instant short-term effect on the EUR. The data is, however, not significant enough to cause any relevant shift in the prevailing market trend.

Categories
Forex Daily Topic Forex Price Action

Trendline Trading: How a Trend upon a Trendline Run Longer

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of a chart that made a long bearish move obeying a bearish trendline. The price after forming a bearish trendline does not offer entry to the sellers. It makes a breakout at the first trendline and then produces another bearish trendline ending up offering short entries. Let us now have a look at the chart and find out how it happens.

The chart shows that it makes two swing lows trending from two swing highs. By joining those points, we can draw a trendline shown in the above chart. The sellers may wait for the price to go back at the trendline’s resistance and produce a bearish reversal candle to go short in the pair. However, the price action has been choppy around the trendline’s resistance. The last candle comes out as a bullish engulfing candle. It does not look good for the sellers.

The price makes a breakout at the trendline’s resistance. It heads towards the North and then makes a strong bearish move. Such price action may puzzle traders. Do you notice something interesting here? Have a look at the next chart.

The sellers may draw another bearish trendline by joining two swing lows. As long as the price makes new lower lows, we can draw a bearish trend line by joining two higher highs. We know what sellers are to do here. Yes, they are to wait for the price to go back to the trendline’s resistance and produce a bearish reversal candle to go short in the pair.

The chart produces a bearish inside bar. It is not a strong reversal candle. However, it is produced at a trendline’s resistance. The sellers may keep their eyes in the pair to go short according to their trading strategies. The price may find its next support at the last swing low. The chart shows that the price has enough space to travel towards the South.

The price heads towards the South at a moderate pace. It makes a long bearish wave, though, by making a breakout at the horizontal support. In the end, it comes out as an excellent trade for the sellers.

If we recap, the first drawn trendline is disobeyed by the price. It is breached, and the chart looks slightly bullish biased. It does not make any more bullish breakout but makes a long bearish move by making a breakout at the last swing low. It gives the sellers an opportunity to draw another bearish trendline, and that ends up offering an excellent entry.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, September 09 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. China Conflict in Play! 

On the news front, the Bank of Canada Overnight Rate rate and Rate Statement will be in focus, and it may drive some price action in Canadian pairs. Elsewhere, we don’t have any major events that can drive sharp movements in the U.S. dollar related pairs. Let’s focus on technical levels.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The UR/USD pair was closed at 1.17734 after placing a high of 1.18273 and a low of 1.17654. The EUR/USD pair dropped on Tuesday and extended its bearish move for the 3rd consecutive day on the back of a strong U.S. dollar and ahead of ECB monetary policy meeting.

Recently ll eyes have turned towards the upcoming meeting of European Central Bank on Thursday to observe if they will do anything to push inflation pressure higher. Chief Economist Philip Lane has raised concerns over the high prices of local currency the last week. Though the currency has already come under pressure due to currency devaluation expectations or inflation, investors are still awaiting the words from ECB. The currency Euro is facing heavy pressure ahead of ECB’s monetary policy meeting and is weighing on EUR/USD for the past three days. The pair continued following the same pressure and dropped on Tuesday as well.

On the data front, 10:30 GMT, the French Final Private Payrolls for the quarter dropped to -0.8% from the projected -0.6%and weighed on Euro. At 11:00 GMT, the German Trade Balance showed a surplus of 18.0B against the expected 14.9B and supported Euro. At 11:45 GMT, the French Trade Balance was released that remained flat with the expectations of -7.0B. At 13:00 GMT, the Italian Retail Sales for July dropped to -2.2% from the projected 1.1% and weighed on Euro. At 14:00 GMT, the Final Employment Change for the quarter dropped to -2.9% from the forecasted -2.8% and weighed on Euro. The Revised GDP for the quarter from Eurozone dropped by -11.8% against the expected -12.1% and supported Euro. As most data came in against the single currency Euro, the EUR/USD pair came under fresh pressure and dropped on Tuesday to 8th day lowest level.

From the U.S. side, the NFIB Small Business Index was released at 15:00 GMT that advanced to 100.2 against the expected 99.0 and supported the U.S. dollar. The strong U.S. dollar added further pressure on EUR/USD pair and dragged the pair down.

Meanwhile, as the global coronavirus cases have surged to 27.3M, including 893,000 deaths, Spain has become the first nation in Western Europe to exceed half-million COVID-19 total infections. This also weighed on the local currency Euro and added in the currency pair losses.

The U.S. dollar was already strong because of its safe-haven status amid the rising US-China tensions after the tech fight escalated. 

The U.S. has announced tariffs of any American company forcing overseas production. The U.S. has also warned its companies not to work with any Chinese company or face sanctions. Whereas, the greenback was also strong because of the weakness of its rival currency like the Euro and GBP. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1753 1.1791 1.1817
1.1727 1.1855
1.1690 1.1881

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias around 1.1780 level, having immediate support at 1.1756 level that’s extended by a double bottom pattern. On the 4 hour timeframe, the violation of the 1.1756 level may extend the selling trend until the 1.1715 level. The EUR/USD may find resistance at 1.1862 and 1.1958 level. Bullish bias seems dominant today.


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.29806 after placing a high of 1.31697 and a low of 1.29798. Overall the movement of the GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. THE GBP/USD pair fell below 1.30 level on Tuesday at the lowest level since 30-July 2020. The pair extended its previous day bearish movement due to a fresh threat by Prime Minister Boris Johnson to leave the E.U. without any deal if progress in talks will not be made till October 15.

Johnson has said that there would need to be an agreement in place by the mid-October deadline when European Council convenes or warned that the U.K. would leave the negotiating table and follow the WTO rules.

However, the talks have become tough after the U.K. has already angered the E.U. members by unveiling plans to introduce a new law that would undermine the withdrawal agreement. Both parties signed the agreement into law and included all terms and conditions of the U.K.’s departure from the bloc.

The new bill aims to create common rules that would apply across the whole of the U.K. are expected to clash with the terms of the withdrawal agreement that requires the Northern Ireland to keep following E.U. rules in the post-Brexit period to avoid a hard border with the Republic of Ireland.

The talks have started on Tuesday between the E.U. chief negotiator Michel Barnier and U.K. chief negotiator David Frost. The U.K.’s controversial move about new law has made the E.U. angry, and the E.U. has said that it will be ready for a no-deal Brexit when the transition period ends on December 31. The British Pound suffered massively as the concerns raised ahead of Brexit talks and dropped below 1.30 level on Tuesday.

On the data front, at 04:01 GMT, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor for the year in August rose to 4.7% from the expected 3.5% and supported British Pound, but the traders ignored it as the focus was shifted towards Brexit talks. The U.S. dollar was also strong in the market due to positive data and safe-haven appeal and also weighed on GBP/USD currency pair. At 15:00 GMT, the NFIB Small Business Index advanced to 100.2 from the expected 99.0 and supported the U.S. dollar that added pressure on GBP/USD pair.

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.2918 1.3049 1.3118
1.2849 1.3249
1.2719 1.3318

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a selling bias at 1.2948 level, set to test the support level of 1.2923 level. The Cable is trading within a downward channel, extending support at 1.2923 level and resistance at 1.3013. On the downside, the GBP/USD pair may find support at 1.2857 level upon the violation of the 1.2923 level. The recent bearish engulfing candle is also in support of the selling trend. The MACD is also supporting selling bias; therefore, we will be looking for selling trades below the 1.3000 level.  


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

Today in the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to break its thin trading range and still hovering below the 106.50 marks. However, the choppy trading around the currency pair could be associated with the risk-off market sentiment, driven by the US-China tussle and Brexit concern, which eventually underpinned the safe-haven Japanese yen and kept the currency pair under pressure. On the other hand, the broad-based U.S. dollar strength, supportive by the safe-haven demand, becomes the key factor that keeps trying to break the pair’s thin trading range. At this moment, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 106.30 and consolidating in the range between 106.20 – 106.39.

Despite the optimism over a potential treatment/vaccine for the highly infectious virus, the market risk sentiment remains depressive. Be it the worrisome headlines concerning the Brexit or the tension between the US-China, not to forget the coronavirus issues in the U.S., the market trading sentiment has been flashing red since the European session started, which ultimately keeps the safe-haven assets supportive on the day. 

At the US-China front, the rising tensions between the United States and China continued to pick up the pace as President Trump earlier imposed punitive measures over the Asian major. As a result, China announced new visa restrictions to counter the Trump administration’s action against China. Also fueled the tension could be the fresh headlines suggested that the U.S. is considering banning some or all products made with cotton from China’s Xinjiang region. Apart from this, the Brexit’s gloomy headlines also weighed on the market trading sentiment, which eventually supported the safe-haven appeal in the market and dragged the currency pair down.

Also weighed on the market trading sentiment were the fears of rising COVID-19 cases in the U.S., Europe, and some of the notable Asian nations like India, which fueling fears that the economic recovery could be halt.

On the contrary, the broad-based U.S. dollar succeeded in maintaining its positive traction and remaining bullish on the day amid risk-off sentiment. The U.S. dollar gains were further bolstered by the ongoing upsurge in the U.S. Treasury bond yields. However, the U.S. dollar’s modest gains turned out to be the major factor that capped the pair’s further downside momentum. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies, rose by 0.13% to 93.168 by 9:53 PM ET (2:53 AM GMT).


Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.7900 106.0900 106.3200
105.5600 106.6200
105.2500 106.8500

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is consolidating at 105.928 area, having a resistance mark of 106.025 level. An upward crossover of 106.024 level may extend further buying trend until the 106.480 level, and the violation of this level can extend buying until the next resistance level of 106.840. On the downside, the safe-haven USD/JPY currency may gain support at 105.620 and 105.280. Let’s consider taking a sell trade below 106.024 level as the MACD and RSI also suggest selling bias. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Options

FX Options Market Combined Volume Expiries for 9th September 2020

Thank you for visiting the Forex Academy FX Options market combined volume expiries section. Each day, where available, we will bring you notable maturities in FX Options of amounts of $100 million-plus, and where these large combined maturities at specified currency exchange rates often have a magnetic effect on price action, especially in the hours leading to their maturities, which happens daily at 10.00 AM Eastern time. This is because the big institutional players hedge their positions accordingly. Each option expiry should be considered ‘in-play’ with a good chance of a strike if labelled in red, still in play and a possible strike if labelled in orange and ‘out of play’ and an unlikely strike if labelled in blue, with regard to the likelihood of price action meeting the strike price at maturity.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………

FX option expiries for Sept 9 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.

– EUR/USD: EUR amounts

  • 1.1800 717m
  • 1.1840 508m
  • 1.1925 773m

EURUSD pair is in a downward trend currently finding support at 1.1750 with several attempts yesterday to cling on to 1.18 failing

– USD/JPY: USD amounts

  • 105.40 450m
  • 105.45 520m
  • 105.50 426m
  • 106.25 533m
  • 106.50 841m

USDJPY pair is in a descending wedge shape with the recent sell-off likely caused by a flight to safety for the yen in a risk-off market.

– NZD/USD: NZD amounts

  • 0.6550 203m
  • 0.6680 231m

NZDUSD pair is overbought. Expect a pull-back, but both options look to be out of play.

………………………………………………………………………………….

As you can see on the preferred 1-hour chart(s), we have also plotted the expiration levels at the various exchange rate maturities and we have also labelled in red, orange and blue.  Therefore, if you see option expiry exchange rates labelled in red these should be considered in-play, because we believe there is a greater chance of the expiry maturing at these levels based on technical analysis at the time of writing. There is still a lesser possibility of a strike if they are in orange and so these are ‘in-play’ too. However, if we have labelled them in blue, they should be considered ‘not in-play’ and therefore price action would be unlikely to reach these levels, which are often referred to as Strikes, at the time of the 10 AM New York cut.

Our technical analysis is based on exchange rates which may be several hours earlier in the day and may not reflect price action at the time of the maturities. Also, we have not factored in economic data releases or keynote speeches by policymakers, or potential market volatility leading up to the cut.

Although we have added some technical analysis, we suggest you take the levels and plot them onto your own trading charts and incorporate the information into your own trading methodology in order to use the information to your advantage. Remember the higher the amount, the larger the gravitational pull towards the exchange rate maturity at 10:00 AM Eastern time.

If you want to learn how forex option expiries affect price action in the spot FX market see our educational article by clicking here: https://bit.ly/2VR2Nji

DISCLAIMER: Please note that this information is for educational purposes. Also, the maturities will look more or less likely to become a strike at 10 AM NY time due to exchange rate fluctuations resulting in a different perspective with regard to technical analysis, and also due to upcoming economic data releases for the associated pairs.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Sept 9 – Will DeFi Bubble Burst, Send Ethereum to Freefall?

The cryptocurrency market had another pullback today, with Bitcoin coming dangerously close to $10,000. Bitcoin is currently trading for $10,087, which represents a decrease of 2.29% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 3.26% on the day, while XRP lost 2.52%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

If we take a look at the top100 cryptocurrencies, IOST gained 11.86% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. TRON (11.78%) and Ontology (7.92%) also did great. On the other hand, the SushiSwap lost 15.01%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Hyperion’s loss of 14.32% and Ocean Protocol’s loss of 11.46%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level stayed at the same spot since our last report, with its value is currently at 59.89%. This value represents a 0.05% difference to the upside when compared to when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has gone down slightly in the past 24 hours. Its current value is $326.90 billion, which represents a decrease of $6.34 billion when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has been clinging to the $10,000 psychological resistance for the past 24 hours as bears took over the market yet again. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap fell well below $10,000, but quickly recovered and stayed just a bit up for the duration of the day. The reason for the sudden drop is most likely the inability to break the $10,360 resistance level. Lower time-frames show that Bitcoin might have formed a triple bottom formation, which would indicate some form of bullishness.

When it comes to predictions, we are one step closer to the bearish scenario than yesterday. A drop sustained drop below $10,000 could lead us to $9,600 and ultimately to the 200-day SMA ($9,080). On the other hand, if BTC manages to bounce off the current levels and surpass $10,500, a move to $11,000 is likely.


BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:
  • Price is well below its 50-period, while it’s slightly below its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly below middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (43.31)
  • Volume is stable
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $10,360                                1: $10,015

2: $10,500                                2: $9,870

3: $10,850                                 3: $9,600

Ethereum

Ethereum had quite a bad day, with its price falling below the $340 mark. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is already down over 30% from the $490 peak, with many indicators showing bearish scenarios. If the DeFi bubble pops, we can see Ethereum in freefall, though that is unlikely simply due to high yields current investors are collecting from staking.

On the other hand, while some DeFi enthusiasts cashed out and left the market due to the volatility, Ethereum’s gas prices have normalized from its Sept 2nd highs, which may be just enough to push the price slightly up or at least keep it stable.

Traders should pay attention to how Ether handles the $340 level.

 

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:
  • The price is slightly below its 21-period and well below its 50-period EMA
  • The price is right below its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (41.08)
  • Volume is descending (low)
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $340                                     1: $300

2: $360                                     2: $289

3: $371                                     

Ripple

XRP has lost a couple of percent of its value, though nothing to be scared of. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap tested its support level of $0.235 for a couple of times in the past 24 hours, and all attempts towards the downside failed. Many analysts are calling for XRP’s future rise, but we need to see a drastic change in volume for that to happen.

XRP traders should watch out for volume spikes, as even sideways trading is hard now due to the extremely low volume.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:
  • The price is just under its 21-period, while it is well below its 50-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (45.18)
  • Volume is low
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.2454                                  1: $0.235 

2: $0.266                                    2: $0.227

3: $0.285                                   3: $0.221

 

Categories
Forex Assets

Analyzing The Costs Involved While Trading The NZD/SGD Exotic Forex Pair

Introduction

NZD/SGD is the abbreviation for the native currencies of New Zealand and Singapore. It is considered an exotic pair, where NZD is the first (base) currency, and SGD is the second (quote) currency.

Understanding NZDSGD

This pair’s price determines the value of SGD, which is equivalent to one New Zealand Dollar, NZD. We can quote it as 1 NZD per X number of SGD. For example, if the NZDSGD pair’s value is at 0.90759, we need almost 0.90759 SGD to buy one NZD.

NZDSGD Specification

Spread

The spread comes from the difference between the bid and the ask prices offered by the broker. This value is controlled by the brokers; therefore, traders don’t have a say in this. This value varies on the type of execution used for performing the trades. Below are the ECN and STP values for NZD/SGD currency pair.

Spread on ECN: 26 pips | Spread on STP: 31 pips

Fees

The fee or commission in Forex is similar to the one that is paid to stockbrokers, where it is automatically deducted from traders’ accounts when they take a trade. Note that there are no fees on STP trading accounts, but a few pips are charged on ECN accounts.

Slippage

Slippage happens when a trader tries to open a trade in a price, but it opens at another price. The main reason to occur slippage is the market volatility and the broker’s execution speed.

Trading Range in NZDSGD

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

NZDSGD Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

If we look at the volatility values at the above table, we can see how the cost changes with the change in volatility of the market. We just have got that ratio and converted into percentages.

ECN Model Account 

Spread = 26 | Slippage = 5 | Trading fee = 8

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee

= 26 + 5 + 8

Total cost = 39

STP Model Account

Spread = 26 | Slippage = 5 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee

= 26 + 5 + 0

Total cost = 31

The Ideal way to trade the NZDSGD

The NZDSGD is a currency pair that has a lot of volatility and liquidity. Therefore, it is easier for a trader to trade this currency pair. The above-mentioned percentage values are all within almost 500%. It is an indication that the cost is higher in the lower timeframe and lowers in the higher timeframe.

In other words, the cost rises with an increase in volatility. Therefore, the risk of this pair is that it is highly volatile. However, the best time to trade in this pair is when the volatility is at the average value. A decrease in volatility is ineffective, while the increase in volatility is risky. Therefore, sticking to the average value is suitable for this pair.

Furthermore, there’s an additional way to lessen the cost of the trades you execute. This is by placing a pending order as a ‘limit’ order instead of a ‘market’ order. In this case, there will be no slippage. So, in this example, the total cost will be reduced by five pips.

STP Model Account (Using Limit Orders)

Spread = 26 | Slippage = 0 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee

= 26 + 0 + 0

Total cost = 26

Categories
Forex Price Action

When Key Fibonacci Level Produces an Engulfing Candle

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of a chart that makes a strong bullish move upon producing a bullish engulfing candle at a key Fibonacci level. We know an engulfing candle creates good momentum. If it is created at a significant Fibonacci level, it often pushes the price towards the trend further than traders’ expectations. Let us see and find out what and how that happens.

It is an H1 chart. The chart shows that the price heads towards the South. It keeps making new lower lows. At the last bounce, the chart produces a Morning Star. It may make a bullish reversal now. Let us wait and see whether it makes a breakout at the last swing high or not.

The chart produces four consecutive bullish candles. The price breaches the last swing high. The buyers may wait for the price to consolidate around the breakout level and get a bullish reversal candle to go long in the pair.

It produces a bearish candle closing within the breakout level. The buyers may keep their eyes sharp to see how the next candle comes out. A bullish reversal candle followed by a breakout at the highest high is the signal to trigger a long entry. If the reversal candle comes out as a bullish engulfing candle closing above the resistance, the buyers may trigger a long entry right after the candle closes.

The candle comes out as a bullish engulfing candle closing well above the resistance. The buyers may trigger a long entry right after the candle closes. Since it is an H1 chart, Fibonacci levels come extremely handy to determine the take profit level. We find out that in a minute. At first, let us find out what the price does.

The price heads towards the North with extreme bullish momentum. It produces only one bearish candle and resumes its bullish journey. With naked eyes, we can tell that the price travels about 4R. It means as far as risk-reward is concerned, it is an excellent deal. Let us draw Fibonacci and see price trends from where to where.

The price makes the bullish reversal at 61.8% and heads towards the level of 161.8% in a hurry. It makes a breakout at 161.8% consolidates and resumes its bullish move. Ideally, the buyers should set their take profit at 161.8%. It would allow them to take 1:2 risk-reward. However, we have seen here that the price travels towards the North even further than that. It often happens when the reversal candle comes out as a bullish engulfing candle, and it is produced at the key Fibonacci level at 61.8%. We may not be too greedy but set our take profit at 161.8% in such cases. However, back in our mind, we know that we are dealing with an excellent trade setup.

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

The Importance of ‘Loan Growth’ as a Forex Macro Economic Indicator

Introduction

Loan Growth is a suitable parameter for us to check whether the monetary strategies implemented by the Central Authorities are coming into play yet or not. Loan Growth also helps us to gauge the health of the economy in terms of liquidity. Loan Growth percentage serves as a litmus test, especially in a capitalist economy, where credit and inflation primarily drive the economy forward.

What is Loan Growth?

Loan: It is a debt incurred by an individual or entity. The lender is generally a bank, financial institution, or the Government. The lender credits the borrower a sum of money. The borrower agrees to specific terms and conditions that can include finance charges, interest payments, due dates, and other conditions.

Loans can be secured or unsecured. In secured loans, the loan is given out against collateral with a financial value like a property, mortgages, or securities, etc.

Loan Growth: Loan Growth refers to the percentage increase in the number of loans issued overall by banks in a particular region over a particular time frame. The time frame can be monthly, semi-annual, or annual.

Most modern economies today we see are capitalist economies, i.e., they grow through capitalism. A capitalist economy requires money to expand and grow. Hence, credit is an inevitable fuel required for economic growth.

How can the Loan Growth numbers be used for analysis?

A healthy increase in the percentage of Loans is suitable for a stable and healthy economy. But as with any case, there is no perfect economy, and there are two sides of analysis to Loan Growth.

First Scenario

A healthy economy means it is growing at a stable rate year over year with mild inflation each year. Credit fuels economic growth in this type of economy. In this type of economy, an increase in the number of loans taken can be considered a positive sign for the economy.

Businesses can grow beyond just cash in hand. Householders can purchase homes without saving the entire cost before purchase. Governments can meet their spending needs without relying solely on tax revenues. Be it a business, householder, or a Government can smoothen out their economic activities in terms of money. They will take credit when in deficit and payback when in surplus.

An increase in Loan Growth can imply that more people are creditworthy, and more businesses are taking credit to expand and grow. Both of these scenarios are good for the GDP and is a good sign for the economy.

Second Scenario

The first scenario takes into the assumption that the economy is strong and stable. In reality, currently, most of the developed nations are struggling to maintain their economic growth. For example, the United States debt to GDP ratio is above 100%, which indicates that even if the entire GDP were given out to repay the debt, it would still be in some debt. Most of the developed nations have taken substantial credits to keep the economy from ticking over.

Keeping economic growth and global competency in mind, most countries have invested heavily in overgrowing in the short-term. By taking on more and more debts, countries may have achieved the necessary growth and needs now but have pushed their problems to the future.

Economists argue that eventually, there would be a time when countries cannot afford any more debt and would be backed into a corner. The only way out then would be at a considerable cost of losing out more than what they had made. Studies also show that rapid loan growth than the long term average also has seen an increase in underperforming or bad loans.

It is also essential to know that increase in Loan Growth should be accompanied by the fact that no bad loans are given out. Giving loans to people and businesses who do not have the eligibility but just because money is lying around is also a problem.

In the United States itself, the Government has been injecting money into the economy since the financial crisis in the form of Money Supply and Quantitative Easing programs to inflate their way out of depression or recession. Until now, the Government has not been able to reduce debt and is only taking on more debt to sustain the current growth.

An increase in loans is good or bad for the economy remains debatable for many. Without credit, sector growth is almost unimaginable in present times. For our analysis, we can use the Loan Growth rate as a litmus test to see whether the injected money from the Central Authorities has started reaching the public and businesses.

When the Central Authorities want to inflate the economy, they reduce interest rates by injecting money into the interbank market. The injected money takes time to get into the economy, and loans are one form in which this money gets circulated.

Overall, for our analysis, once Loan Growth shows increasing numbers, we can assume that the injected money is reaching the intended sectors, and consequent effects could be predicted on businesses and consumers. Loan Growth is indicative of a growing economy in general and is more prominent in developing countries.

Impact on Currency

Loan Growth is a by-product of a reduction in interest rates from the Central Banks of the country and an increase in employment and business growth. An increase in Loans indicates that money is “cheaper” to borrow. It is inflationary for the economy and is given out to induce growth (which may or may not happen).

An increase in Loan Growth depreciates currency as more money is competing against the same set of goods and services. A decrease in Loan growth appreciates the currency as the reduced liquidity forces goods and services to come at reduced prices.

Overall, Loan Growth is a low-impact indicator, as the Central Bank’s interest rates are the leading indicators, and the desired effect from increased loans can be traced from other leading indicators like Consumer and Business surveys.

Economic Reports

Since Loan Growth is not a significant economic indicator, official publications for significant countries are not explicitly published but can be obtained through reports analysis. For our reference, the Trading Economics website consolidates the Credit Growth in different sectors for data available countries on its official website. Since it is a consolidation, frequency and time of publication vary from country to country.

Sources of Loan Growth

Loan Growth consolidated available data for different countries are available here.

“The impact of bank lending on Palestine economic growth: an econometric analysis of time series data” has been referenced for this article.

How Loan Growth Affects The Price Charts

Loan growth is not a statistic. Most forex traders keep an eye when making their trades. The lack of interest is because it is considered a their-tier leading indicator. It is, however, essential to know how the release of this fundamental economic indicator affects the forex price charts.

In the EU, loan growth data is released monthly by the European Central Bank about 28 days after the month ends. It represents the change in the total value of new loans issued to consumers and businesses in the private sector. The most recent release was on July 27, 2020, 8.00 AM GMT can be accessed here. A more in-depth review of the economic news release can be accessed at the ECB website.

Below is a screengrab of the Forex Factory website. On the right, we can see a legend that indicates the level of impact the Fundamental Indicator has on the EUR.

As can be seen, low impact is expected on the EUR.

The screengrab below is of the most recent change in the loan growth in the EU. In June 2020, private loans grew by 3% as compared to the same period in 2019. This change represented a flat growth from the previous release. Based on our fundamental analysis, this should be positive for the EUR.

Now, let’s see how this positive news release made an impact on the Forex price charts.

EUR/USD: Before Loan Growth release on July 27, 2020, 
Just Before 8.00 AM GMT

From the above chart, the EUR/USD pair is trading on a neutral trend before the data release. The candles are forming around the flattening 20-period Moving Average. This trend is an indication of relative market inactivity.

EUR/USD: After Loan Growth release on July 27, 
2020, 8.00 AM GMT

After the news release, the pair forms a 15-minute bullish candle as EUR becomes stronger as expected. However, the news release was not strong enough to cause a shift in the pair’s trend since the pair continued to trade in the previously observed neutral trend.

Now let’s see how this news release impacted other major currency pairs.

EUR/JPY: Before Loan Growth release on July 27, 2020, 
Just Before 8.00 AM GMT

Before the news release, EUR/JPY traded in a similar neutral trend as observed with the EUR/USD with the candles forming around a flattening 20-period Moving Average.

EUR/JPY: After Loan Growth release on July 27, 
2020, 8.00 AM GMT

As observed with the EUR/USD pair, EUR/JPY formed a 15-minute bullish candle after the news release as expected. The subsequent trend does now significantly shift.

EUR/CAD: Before Loan Growth release on July 27, 2020, 
Just Before 8.00 AM GMT

EUR/CAD: After Loan Growth release on July 27, 2020, 
8.00 AM GMT

The EUR/CAD pair shows a similar neutral trading pattern as the EUR/USD and EUR/JPY pair before the news release. After the news release, the pair forms a 15-minute bullish candle but later continued trading in the earlier observed neutral trend as the 20-period Moving Average flattens.

The release of the loan growth data has an instant short-term effect on the EUR. The data is, however, not significant enough to cause any relevant shift in the prevailing market trend.

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Market Analysis Forex Technical Analysis

Gold Continues its Triangle-Pattern Consolidation

Overview

Gold continues on the fifth consecutive week of consolidation. The pattern is developing a contracting triangle which remains incomplete. The internal structure observed in this consolidation pattern suggests a limited upside before completing the corrective formation in progress.

Market Sentiment Overview

The price of Gold continues moving sideways by the fifth week in a row, testing the support on the extreme bullish sentiment zone of the 52-week high and low range. Although the precious metal eases 7.5% from its all-time high at $2,075.14 per ounce to date, the yellow metal report gains over 27.7% (YTD).

The following chart presents the yellow metal in its weekly timeframe. In it we distinguish the price movement testing the extreme bullish zone support located at $1,917.81 per ounce. This market condition leads us to expect a new decline for the coming trading sessions, finding support in the 26-week moving average, which currently moves in the $1,850.10 per ounce.

The potential decline in Gold’s price is backed by the strength of the U.S. Dollar Index, shown in the next intraday chart. In the figure, we observe the Greenback showing recovery signals moving above the 120-hour moving average.

On the other hand, the Gold Volatility index continues consolidating in a flag pattern. As discussed in our previous analysis, the current sideways movement, in progress, converges with gold’s consolidating formation, suggesting a new decline in the valuation of the precious metal.

Summarizing, the market sentiment for the yellow metal reveals the exhaustion of the extreme bullish sentiment that dominated the market participants’ activity until early August when the yellow metal reached its record high at $2,075.14 per ounce. At the same time, the recovery signals unveiled by the U.S. Dollar Index lead us to expect further declines in the precious metal.

Elliott Wave Outlook

The short-term Elliott Wave perspective for the yellow metal illustrated in the following hourly chart reveals a consolidation formation identified as an incomplete contracting triangle pattern.

In the hourly chart, we recognize the price action advancing in an incomplete corrective structural series, which began after the yellow metal topped at $2,075.14 per ounce from where the golden metal started to find sellers. The first decline corresponding to wave (a) of Minuette degree identified in blue found support at $1,832.62 per ounce. This bearish aggressively-looking leg alternates with wave (b), which still remains in progress.

The incomplete wave (b) in progress follows the internal sequence of a contracting triangle pattern, which currently ended its wave d of Subminuette degree labeled in green. According to the Elliott wave theory, the price should develop a marginal advance completing a wave e, in green, before continuing its bearish path. The limited upward move expected corresponds with the potential decline foreseen in the Gold Volatility Index, which shows a consolidation in the form of a flag pattern.

Categories
Forex Basic Strategies

Learning To Trade The ‘Turn To Trend’ Forex Strategy

Introduction

Although many times before, we have stressed on trading with the direction of the market, yet most traders have a hard time trading with the trend. The observation is contrary to what is said by experts and professional traders since the majority of retail traders claim to be trading with the trend but end up trading counter-trend. While everyone talks of the idiom, “the trend is your friend,” in reality, most traders love to pick tops and bottoms and constantly violate the above rule.

Time Frame

The strategy is fixed to two-time frames. The daily time frame for trend identification and the 1-hour time frame for trade entry.

Indicators

We use the following technical indicators for the strategy:

  • 20-period SMA
  • Three standard deviations Bollinger band (3SD)
  • Two standard deviations Bollinger band (3SD)

Currency Pairs

This strategy is applicable to most of the currency pairs listed on the broker’s platform. However, exotic pairs should be avoided.

Strategy Concept

This setup recognizes the desire of most traders to buy low and sell high but does so in the predominant framework of trading with the trend. The strategy uses multiple time frames and a couple of indicators as it’s a tool for entry. First and foremost, we look at the daily chart to ascertain of the pair in a trend. For that, we use the 20-period simple moving average (SMA), which tells us the direction of the market. In technical analysis, there are numerous ways of determining the trend, but none of them is as simple and easy as the 20-period SMA.

Next, we switch to the hourly charts to find our ‘entry.’ In the ‘Turn to Trend’ Strategy, we will only trade in the direction of the market by buying highly oversold prices in an uptrend and selling highly overbought prices in a downtrend. The question arises, how do we know the market is overbought or oversold? The answer is by using Bollinger bands, which help us gauge the price action.

Bollinger bands measure price extremes by calculating the standard deviation of price from its moving average. In our case, we use the three standard deviation Bollinger band (3SD) and Bollinger band with two standard deviations (2SD). These two create a set of Bollinger band channels. When price trades in a trend, most of the price action will be contained within the Bollinger bands of 2SD and 1SD.

Trade Setup

In order to illustrate the strategy, we have considered the chart of EUR/CAD, where we will be applying the strategy to take a ‘long’ trade.

Step 1

The first step is to identify the major trend of the market. This can be done using the 20-period simple moving average (SMA). If the price is very well above the SMA, we say that the market is in an uptrend. Likewise, if the price is mostly below the SMA, we say that the market is a downtrend. For this strategy, we have to determine the trend on the daily chart of the currency pair.

In our case, we see that the market is in a strong uptrend, as shown in the below image. Hence, we will enter for a ‘long’ trade at the price retracement on the 1-hour time frame.

Step 2

Next, we have to change the time frame of the chart to 1 hour and wait for a price retracement. In order to evaluate the retracement, we plot three standard deviations (3SD) and two standard deviations (2SD) Bollinger band on the chart. After plotting the two Bollinger bands, we need to wait for the price to get into the zone of 2SD-3SD BB.

In the below image, we can see that the price breaks into the zone of 2SD-3SD BB after a lengthy ‘range’ movement.

Step 3

Once the price moves into the zone of 2SD-3SD BB, we wait for the price to bounce off from the lower band of the 3SD BB to give an indication of a reversal. In a ‘short‘ set up, the price should react off from the upper band of the 3SD BB, and give an indication of downtrend continuation. During this process, we need to make sure that the price does not break below or above the 3SD BB. Because if this happens, the ‘pullback’ is no more valid, and this could be a sign of reversal. This is a crucial aspect of the strategy.

The below image shows how the price bounces off from the lower band of the 3SD BB two candles after the price moves into the zone.

Step 4

We enter the market at the first sign of trend continuation, which was determined in the previous step. Now we need to define the stop-loss and take-profit for the strategy. Stop-loss should be placed below the lower band of the 3SD BB, in case of a ‘long’ trade and above the upper band of the 3SD BB, in a ‘short’ trade. The ‘take-profit’ is not a fixed point. Instead, we take our profit as soon as the price touches the opposite band of the 3SD BB.

In the case of EUR/CAD, the resultant risk-to-reward of the trade was a minimum of 1:2, as shown in the below image.

Strategy Roundup

The beauty of this setup is that it prevents us from guessing the turn in the market prematurely by forcing us to wait until the price action confirms a swing bottom or a swing top. If the price is in a downtrend, we watch the hourlies for a turn back to the trend. If the price continues to trade between the 3SD and 2SD BB, we stay away as long as we get confirmation from the market. We can also set our first take-profit at 1:1 risk to reward to lock in some profits.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, September 08 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – European Data in Focus! 

On Tuesday, the economic calendar offers low impact economic events that may not drive any solid movement in the market. However, the eyes will remain on the German Trade Balance, French Trade Balance, and Revised GDP figures from the Eurozone. EUR currency pairs can show some price action during the day today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18120 after placing a high of 1.18485 and a low of 1.18114. The EUR/USD pair dropped on Monday and extended its previous day’s losses due to decreased risk appetite and negative industrial production data from Germany. However, the change in prices was little as the U.S. financial markets were closed for the Labor Day Holiday.

The U.S. Dollar was steady on Monday with a little change in U.S. Dollar Index at 92.895 level. However, the greenback sentiment remained weak after the dovish comments from Jerome Powell on Friday that interest rates will remain lower for longer. The dollar was also steady because of the slow growth in the job sector was reported in August.

On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor showed slow growth and increased permanent job losses as the government funding was running out. It has raised doubts about the sustainability of the economic recovery. On the Euro front, traders’ focus has shifted to the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday this week. As it is expected, ECB will not change policy stance, but the focus will solely remain on the message the ECB will deliver on its inflation forecasts.

The local currency Euro marked a 2-year high at the beginning of the month, and after that, the European Central Bank meeting will hold more importance. Because officials were concerned about the higher Euro prices, it would impact the exports and prices.

On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German Industrial Production in July decreased to 1.2% from the expected 4.5% and weighed on the local currency Euro. At 13:30 GMT, the Sentix Investor Confidence for September came in as -8.0 against the expected -11.4 and supported single currency Euro. The decreased German Industrial Production raised concerns over the economic growth and weighed on the Euro that dragged the currency pair EUR/USD on the downside.

The EUR/USD pair was down on Monday because of the European Union’s rising coronavirus cases. On Monday, Spain became the first European country to surpass 500,000 coronavirus cases after the second surge in infections caused after schools were reopened. On Tuesday, the Trade Balance from Germany and France and the Retail Sales data from Italy will be under traders’ focus for finding fresh impetus.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1803 1.1826 1.1841
1.1788 1.1864
1.1764 1.1879

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a selling bias around 1.1801 level, heading lower towards the next support area of 1.1780 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD may find support at 1.1780, the triple bottom level, which is extended by an upward trendline. Below this, the next support is likely to be found around the 1.1725 level.


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD failed to stop its previous session losing streak and took further offer below the 1.3150 level while represented 0.96% losses on the day mainly due broad-based U.S. dollar on-going strength, supported by the combination of factors. On the other hand, the reason behind the currency pair declines could also be associated with the rising fears of a no-deal Brexit, which joined the on-going pessimism around the Cable and contributed to the currency pair losses. At this time, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading at 1.3155 and consolidating in the range between 1.3145 – 1.3267.

The GBP currency took a hit on the 1st-day of the week manly after the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson set October 15 as the deadline for a Brexit trade agreement with the European Union, which eventually bolstered the risk of a messy end to the Brexit transition period on December 31. As per the keywords, “U.K. will be ready to trade with the E.U. on Australia type terms if no deal agreed.” He further added, “If no deal reached by October 15 with the E.U., both sides should accept this and move on. Also, fuel the fears could be the reports that the U.K. 

However, the Brexit fears played a major role in weakening the market trading sentiment as the U.S. is on the labor day holiday. Across the pond, the intensifying tensions between the U.S. and China also added a burden around the market trading sentiment. After the U.S. punished Chinese technologies and diplomats by imposing several sanctions, China’s Foreign Ministry urged the U.S. to stop abusing private companies. As per the keywords of China’s Foreign Ministry, “Without evidence, the U.S. has abused national power to take measures on Chinese companies.” This ultimately exerted downside pressure on the trading sentiment and contribute to the currency pair losses.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar flashed green and took the safe-haven bids on the day amid market risk-off sentiment. However, the U.S. dollar gains could also be associated with the upbeat U.S. labor market report, which showed a decline in the unemployment rate and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Thus, the gains in the U.S. dollar kept the currency pair under pressure. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies rose by 0.18% to 92.882 by 12:05 AM ET (5:05 AM GMT).

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3109 1.3197 1.3254
1.3052 1.3342
1.2964 1.3398

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a selling bias at 1.3125 level, set to test the support level of 1.3120 level. The Cable is trading within a downward channel, which may extend support at 1.3120 level along with resistance at 1.3186. On the downside, the GBP/USD pair may find support at 1.3051 level upon the violation of the 1.3125 level. The MACD is also supporting selling bias; therefore, we will be looking for selling trades below the 1.3165 level. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 106.227 after forming a high of 106.503 and 106.055. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. The pair USD/JPY moved in the upward direction and posted gains on Monday. The currency pair extended its bullish streak for the 5th consecutive day despite the sow job growth in the U.S. and increasing US-China tensions.

The tensions between U.S. & China further escalated on Monday after the U.S. administration of President Donald Trump announced a ban on the usage of products made from cotton from China’s Xinjiang region. The ban was imposed against the human rights violation in Xinjiang over the forced labor on Muslim minorities.

China’s response to such a ban is yet to come, but it is expected that the latest ban would only increase the lingering tensions between both nations. These conditions helped fade the market risk sentiment and capped on additional gains in the USD/JPY pair on Monday. The greenback gathered strength against its rivals on the back of upbeat macroeconomic data released in the previous week. But the pair’s upside momentum was limited after a sharp decline in the major equity indexes in the U.S. that helped the JPY to find demand as safe-haven.

On the data front, at 10:00 GMT, the leading indicators in July rose to 86.9% compared to June’s 83.8%; it failed to impact USD/JPY’s pair prices as it came in line with the forecast. However, traders’ focus has now shifted towards the second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Trade Balance data from Japan that will be released on Tuesday. Markets expect the Japanese economy to contract by 8.1% every quarter. Any better than expected reading would give strength to the Asian stock markets and hurt the Japanese Yen that will add further gains in USD/JPY pair.

According to Johns Hopkins University data on the coronavirus front, the total number of coronavirus cases reached 27 million on Monday. These fears kept the risk sentiment under pressure and weighed on the USD/JPY pair’s gains.

However, the risk sentiment was favored by the latest comments from Steven Mnuchin on Sunday. He said that the new stimulus measures’ details would be delivered by the end of this week. He reiterated that the new bill would provide funds to the federal government through the start of December.

The White House and Congress agreed on the same terms to extend the funding, as confirmed by Nancy Pelosi and Steven Mnuchin. The announcement came to avoid the economic shutdown as the current funding was near to expire at the end of this month. These positive comments from Mnuchin raised the risk sentiment and weighed on the Japanese Yen and pushed the USD/JPY pair higher.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
106.1100 106.2500 106.3800
105.9900 106.5100
105.8500 106.6400

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is consolidating at 106.250 area, having a resistance mark of 106.485 level. An upward crossover of 106.505 level may extend further, buying into the next resistance mark of 106.850. On the downside, the safe-haven USD/JPY currency may gain support at 106.028 and 105.628. Let’s consider taking a bullish trade over 106.028 level as the MACD and RSI also suggest neutral bias. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Options

FX Options Market Combined Volume Expiries for 8th September 2020

Thank you for visiting the Forex Academy FX Options market combined volume expiries section. Each day, where available, we will bring you notable maturities in FX Options of amounts of $100 million-plus, and where these large combined maturities at specified currency exchange rates often have a magnetic effect on price action, especially in the hours leading to their maturities, which happens daily at 10.00 AM Eastern time. This is because the big institutional players hedge their positions accordingly. Each option expiry should be considered ‘in-play’ with a good chance of a strike if labelled in red, still in play and a possible strike if labelled in orange and ‘out of play’ and an unlikely strike if labelled in blue, with regard to the likelihood of price action meeting the strike price at maturity.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………

FX option expiries for Tuesday, September 8 at the 10am NY cut

-EUR/USD euro amount
  •  1.1695 757m
  •  1.1815 511m
  •  1.1870 587m
  •  1.1895 552m
  •  1.1900 1.9bn

EURUSD pressure building to the downside. Euro area and US data up later.

-USD/JPY USD amount

  •  106.00 795m
  •  107.00 1.4bn

USDJPY price action is fading to the downside. US data up later may provide the next directional push.

-EUR/GBP euro amount

  •  0.9000 710m

EURGBP pair is in a double top formation. The option will likely be too much of a magnet for a full rejection and the Pound is currently on the back foot over Brexit related fears.

………………………………………………………………………………….

As you can see on the preferred 1-hour chart(s), we have also plotted the expiration levels at the various exchange rate maturities and we have also labelled in red, orange and blue.  Therefore, if you see option expiry exchange rates labelled in red these should be considered in-play, because we believe there is a greater chance of the expiry maturing at these levels based on technical analysis at the time of writing. There is still a lesser possibility of a strike if they are in orange and so these are ‘in-play’ too. However, if we have labelled them in blue, they should be considered ‘not in-play’ and therefore price action would be unlikely to reach these levels, which are often referred to as Strikes, at the time of the 10 AM New York cut.

Our technical analysis is based on exchange rates which may be several hours earlier in the day and may not reflect price action at the time of the maturities. Also, we have not factored in economic data releases or keynote speeches by policymakers, or potential market volatility leading up to the cut.

Although we have added some technical analysis, we suggest you take the levels and plot them onto your own trading charts and incorporate the information into your own trading methodology in order to use the information to your advantage. Remember the higher the amount, the larger the gravitational pull towards the exchange rate maturity at 10:00 AM Eastern time.

If you want to learn how forex option expiries affect price action in the spot FX market see our educational article by clicking here: https://bit.ly/2VR2Nji

DISCLAIMER: Please note that this information is for educational purposes. Also, the maturities will look more or less likely to become a strike at 10 AM NY time due to exchange rate fluctuations resulting in a different perspective with regard to technical analysis, and also due to upcoming economic data releases for the associated pairs.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Sept 8 – Peter Schiff Buying More Bitcoin; Investors Keep Buying BTC Despite Downside Potential

The cryptocurrency market was quite slow today, with most cryptocurrencies establishing their positions rather than pushing towards upside or downside. Bitcoin is currently trading for $10,329, which represents an increase of 0.64% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 2.23% on the day, while XRP lost 0.36%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

If we take a look at the top100 cryptocurrencies, BitShares gained 9.64% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. Dash (8.35%) and Zcash (5.51%) also did great. On the other hand, the Reserve Rights lost 12.27%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Kusama’s loss of 9.38% and Arweave’s loss of 9.26%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has gone up slightly, with its value is currently at 59.84%, which represents a 0.23% difference to the upside when compared to when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has gone up slightly in the past 24 hours. Its current value is $333.24 billion, which represents an increase of $1.71 billion when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s price has been holding to the psychological $10,000 support all weekend, trying to stay above it. While the largest cryptocurrency by market cap managed to stay above it, this has been the second day that it couldn’t pass the $10,360 resistance. On top of that, the past 24 hours showed us a much greater spike in volume during a support retest than a resistance test. Lower time frames show that Bitcoin has possibly made a double bottom, which calls for a slightly more bullish scenario.

When it comes to predictions, nothing has changed from yesterday. If the bulls fail to break the $10,360 level soon (and sustain it), the bears will most likely make another attempt to bring the price down. A drop to the 200-day SMA ($9,080) is highly likely. On the other hand, if BTC manages to bounce off the current level and surpass the next one ($10,500), a move to $11,000 is likely. While traders should wait for a bigger move to happen before trading, small profits can be made on sideways-movement trades.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:
  • Price is well below its 50-period, while it is at its 21-period EMA
  • Price is slightly above middle Bollinger band
  • RSI has recovered and is neutral (46.38)
  • Volume is stable
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $10,360                                1: $10,015

2: $10,500                                2: $9,870

3: $10,850                                 3: $9,600

Ethereum

Ethereum has broken free from its descending trend as well, with its price consolidating between the $340 and $360 levels. Ethereum tested the $340 level with a strong push towards the downside, but the level held up quite nicely. This may give Ethereum the opportunity to gather its strength and push past the $360 level.

Ethereum’s gas prices have dropped slightly from the highs it reached on Sept 2nd, which may be just enough to push the price slightly up.

Traders should pay attention to how Ether handles the $360 level.


ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:
  • The price is slightly below its 21-period and well below its 50-period EMA
  • The price is right at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (42.37)
  • Volume is descending (low)
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $360                                     1: $340

2: $371                                     2: $300

3: $400                                      3: $289

Ripple

XRP has also taken the day to consolidate and establish its presence at the levels it reached after its price plummeted. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading within the range bound by the $0.235 and $0.2454. The most recent retest of the support level showed that $0.235 will be hard to get through for bears, while the $0.2454, as well as the 21-period moving average, will require a lot more bullish presence to get conquered as well.

XRP traders should either trade within the range or wait for a breakout.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:
  • The price is just under its 21-period, while it’s well below its 50-period EMA
  • Price is slightly above its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral (44.06)
  • Volume is average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.2454                                  1: $0.235 

2: $0.266                                    2: $0.227

3: $0.285                                   3: $0.221

 

Categories
Forex Daily Topic Forex Price Action

Trend Line Trading: The Entries to be Skipped

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of a chart that trends towards the North by obeying a trendline. It offers a long entry once the trendline is established. At the fourth bounce, it produces a bullish reversal candle. We find out whether the buyers should take a long entry or not upon getting the bullish reversal candle at the trendline’s support. Let us get started.

The chart shows that the price heads towards the North upon producing a bullish reversal candle. It consolidates and resumes its bullish journey. The chart looks like the buyers’ hunting ground.

The price upon producing a spinning top, it produces a long bearish candle. It consolidates with some candles and produces a bullish engulfing candle. The buyers may keep an eye in the chart to go long above the last swing high. If the price makes a bullish breakout, the buyers get two swing lows and two swing highs to draw an uptrending trend line.

Here it goes. The price makes a bullish breakout and heads towards the North further. The chart produces a bearish engulfing candle. It may make a bearish correction. As it looks, the chart belongs to the Bull without any doubt.

The price makes a bearish correction; consolidates and heads towards the North again. The breakout traders may find a long opportunity and grab some pips. The price makes a long bearish correction. In fact, it makes a breakout at a significant level of swing low. It seems that the chart is slightly bearish biased. Have a look at the chart below.

The trendline’s support holds the price and produces a bullish engulfing candle. The trendline traders may go long in the pair right after the last candle closes. The last swing high is the safest option to set take profit. It means the risk-reward ratio looks good for the trendline traders.

The price heads towards the North with good bullish momentum. However, it seems that the horizontal level of resistance is too strong to be breached. The price consolidates here with several candles. The last candle comes out as a bearish engulfing candle. The buyers may close the entry. The question is does the price come back to the trendline’s support or it makes a breakout at the highest high.  Let us proceed to the next chart and find out what happens.

The price comes back at the trendline’s support. It produces a hammer. Should the buyers go long from here as far as trendline trading is concerned? Think about it for a minute.

If your answer is ‘No’, you are right. The reason why the buyers should not go long from here is it does not make a new higher high upon getting its last bounce. In fact, traders may wait for the price to make a breakout at the trendline’s support and go short in the pair. In our forthcoming lessons, we will learn about trendline breakout and trendline breakout trading. Stay tuned.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Dow Jones Declines Below an Ending Diagonal Pattern

Overview

The Dow Jones Industrial Average stopped its progress that started on the March 23rd’s low at 18,213.5 pts, from which it proceeded toward the 29,193.6 pts, reached on September 03rd. This movement made it recover its yearly losses that happened in the first quarter of 2020. The latest decline observed following the ending-diagonal breakdown leads us to warn about a likely bearish scenario.

Market Sentiment Overview

The Dow Jones Industrial Average stopped its advance from the mentioned recovery in our previous analysis. In our previous outlook, we commented about the divergence between the S&P 500 and the Industrial Average, which still did not reach a fresh record high as the S&P 500 did. As the following figure illustrates, the divergence observed between the two U.S. indices drives us to the conclusion that the last all-time high reached by the S&P 500 remains without confirmation by the Dow Jones. This situation carries us to expect the exhaustion of the current stock market recovery.


The next chart illustrates the Industrial Average in its daily timeframe. In the figure, we distinguish the market action moving on an extreme bullish sentiment zone, confirmed by its price action above the 60-day moving average. However, the latest sell-off negated the strike of the opening 2020 price easing near to 1.75% (YTD).

The breakdown observed in the Fear and Greed Index highlighted in yellow, signal the decline of the bullish sentiment prevailing during the previous stock market sessions. This reading adds to the context observed in the Dow Jones Volatility Index daily chart, which remains well in the bearish sentiment zone – above the 60-day moving average. This leads us to suspect that the recovery observed in the stock market is ending.

In consequence, from a market sentiment perspective, our position for the Dow Jones changes from bullish to neutral expecting the bullish continuation or bearish reversal confirmation.

Elliott Wave Outlook

Under the mid-term Elliott Wave perspective, the Industrial Average in its 4-hour chart reveals the completion on September 03rd of the fifth wave of Minuette degree labeled in blue, as the price topped at 29,193.6 pts., where Dow Jones found fresh sellers.

The last Dow Jones rally observed in the previous chart, developed in five waves, illustrates an ending diagonal pattern, which, after the price broke and closed below the line (ii)-((iv), dropped until the wave (iii) in blue. This movement leads us to expect further corrections in the U.S. stock market.

Simultaneously, the completion of the wave ((c)) of Minute degree in black and wave B of Minor degree in green points us to anticipate the development of a regular flat pattern, which follows a 3-3-5 structural sequence. In this context, Dow Jones might start to develop a new decline into five waves.

Finally, our central perspective for the Industrial Average remains neutral, expecting additional confirmation signals for the next movement. If the price action confirms a bearish continuation, the Dow Jones index could find support in 21,000 pts.

Categories
Forex Options

FX Options Market Combined Volume Expiries for 7th September 2020

Thank you for visiting the Forex Academy FX Options market combined volume expiries section. Each day, where available, we will bring you notable maturities in FX Options of amounts of $100 million-plus, and where these large combined maturities at specified currency exchange rates often have a magnetic effect on price action, especially in the hours leading to their maturities, which happens daily at 10.00 AM Eastern time. This is because the big institutional players hedge their positions accordingly. Each option expiry should be considered ‘in-play’ with a good chance of a strike if labelled in red, still in play and a possible strike if labelled in orange and ‘out of play’ and an unlikely strike if labelled in blue, with regard to the likelihood of price action meeting the strike price at maturity.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………

FX option expiries for Monday the 7th of September at the 10am NY cut
EUR/USD EUR amount
  •  1.1800 950m
  •  1.1810 754m

EURUSD is maintaining the same consolidation zone as Friday. With little on the calendar and a US holiday, only the option expiries should be a magnet for price action.

USD/JPY USD amount

  •  106.05 410m

USDJPY is in a tight range with the option within range.

………………………………………………………………………………….

As you can see on the preferred 1-hour chart(s), we have also plotted the expiration levels at the various exchange rate maturities and we have also labelled in red, orange and blue.  Therefore, if you see option expiry exchange rates labelled in red these should be considered in-play, because we believe there is a greater chance of the expiry maturing at these levels based on technical analysis at the time of writing. There is still a lesser possibility of a strike if they are in orange and so these are ‘in-play’ too. However, if we have labelled them in blue, they should be considered ‘not in-play’ and therefore price action would be unlikely to reach these levels, which are often referred to as Strikes, at the time of the 10 AM New York cut.

Our technical analysis is based on exchange rates which may be several hours earlier in the day and may not reflect price action at the time of the maturities. Also, we have not factored in economic data releases or keynote speeches by policymakers, or potential market volatility leading up to the cut.

Although we have added some technical analysis, we suggest you take the levels and plot them onto your own trading charts and incorporate the information into your own trading methodology in order to use the information to your advantage. Remember the higher the amount, the larger the gravitational pull towards the exchange rate maturity at 10:00 AM Eastern time.

If you want to learn how forex option expiries affect price action in the spot FX market see our educational article by clicking here: https://bit.ly/2VR2Nji

DISCLAIMER: Please note that this information is for educational purposes. Also, the maturities will look more or less likely to become a strike at 10 AM NY time due to exchange rate fluctuations resulting in a different perspective with regard to technical analysis, and also due to upcoming economic data releases for the associated pairs.

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

What Is GDP Annual Growth Rate & What Impact It Has On The Forex Price Charts?

Introduction

Apart from inflation, gross domestic product growth is one of the most closely monitored macroeconomic statistics. This interest in the GDP growth rate is because GDP is one of the leading indicators of economic health in any country. Therefore, apart from understanding how the GDP growth rate impacts a nation’s economy, forex traders must comprehend how it affects the exchange rate.

Understanding the GDP Annual Growth Rate

GDP: A country’s gross domestic product is the monetary measure of the entirety of goods and services that have been produced within an economy over a specific period. The formula for calculating the GDP for a country is summing up the households’ consumption expenditure, expenditure by the national government, spending by businesses, and the net value of exports. The fact that the GDP covers the entire expenditure within an economy makes it a robust leading indicator of economic health.

GDP Growth Rate: The measure of how the various components in an economy are changing over a given period is the GDP growth rate. The GDP growth rate shows how much a country’s economy has expanded or shrunk relative to the previous period. Thus, the GDP growth rate is the primary measure of how well or poorly an economy is performing.

GDP Annual Growth Rate: The GDP growth rate is calculated every quarter. However, the annual growth rate measures the change in the real GDP between a given quarter and a similar quarter in the previous calendar year. While the QoQ GDP growth rate gives a more recent picture of how the economy is fairing, the annual growth rate is necessary to indicate the longer-term trajectory of the economy.

How the GDP Annual Growth Rate is Measured

It is worth noting that the GDP annual growth rate is calculated using the “real” GDP, meaning that the GDP has been adjusted for inflation. This adjustment is made to ensure the effects of inflation do not result in a false sense of economic progression. There are two ways of determining the GDP annual growth rate.

The first one is by annualising the QoQ GDP growth rate. Annualising means converting the short term QoQ GDP growth rate into an annual rate.

Annualised GDP growth rate  = (1 + QoQ GDP)4 – 1

The second method for calculating the annual GDP growth rate is by comparing the rate of change from a given quarter with that of the same quarter in the previous year.

YoY GDP growth = (Current quarter GDP/ Similar Quarter's GDP – previous year) – 1

How the GDP Annual Growth Rate can be used for analysis

Economists track the GDP growth rate not just because it shows the current state of the economy but because it the primary objective of fiscal and monetary policy formulation. The annual GDP growth rate shows a long-term trajectory of the economy. It provides an effective measure to compare the sizes of economies of different countries.

Governments and central banks formulate their policies around the GDP growth numbers. When the YoY GDP is falling, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies that will be implemented. A falling GDP is an indicator that the economy is heading to higher levels of unemployment; reduced wages; and a general reduction in aggregate demand and supply. Therefore, to avoid recession, expansionary policies like a reduction in interest rates are introduced. These measures are reducing the cost of borrowing, which in turn leads to increased expenditure by households, businesses, and the government.

Conversely, a rapidly increasing growth rate of the annual GDP signifies that the economy is performing well. This economic prosperity translates to a higher rate of employment, higher wages; increased levels of investment and re-investments; and higher aggregate demand and supply within the economy. However, although an increasing GDP is good, a rapidly increasing annual growth rate could forebode an overheating economy.

An overheating economy is one that is experiencing an unsustainable period of prolonged economic growth. This prolonged growth risks high levels of runaway inflation in the economy due to the continually rising wages. More so, an overheating economy results in inefficient allocation of the factors of production since producers oversupply the economy to take advantage of the higher prices. These inefficiencies are likely to result in a nationwide economic recession.

To prevent the effects of an overheating economy, the government and central banks will implement contractionary monetary and fiscal policies. They include a reduction in government expenditure and increasing the interest rate. These policies will help slow down the rate of inflation and increase the cost of borrowing, effectively reducing the aggregate demand.

Therefore, the YoY GDP growth rate provides an important metric for the relevant authorities to ensure that the economy is progressing at a sustainable pace. Furthermore, it is a way for the governments and central banks to gauge the effectiveness of the policies put in place.

Impact on Currency

Forex traders keenly follow the changes in fundamental economic indicators to establish whether there will be a future hike or cut in the interest rate. A falling annual GDP growth rate is accompanied by expansionary monetary policies such as a reduction of the interest rate. This cut tends to depreciate a country’s currency. Therefore, a falling annual GDP growth rate is negative for the currency.

Conversely, an increasing annual GDP growth rate forestalls an increase in the interest rate to prevent runaway inflation. Therefore, it is expected that a rising annual GDP growth rate leads to the appreciating of the currency.

Sources of the GDP Annual Growth Rate

The statistics on global GDP annual growth rate can be accessed at Trading Economics and The World Bank.

How GDP Annual Growth Rate Data Release Affects The Forex?

This analysis will focus on the annual GDP growth rate in Australia. The most recent data release was on September 2, 2020, at 1.30 AM GMT and can be accessed at Forex Factory here. A more in-depth review of the data release can be accessed from the Australia Bureau of Statistics.

The screengrab below is of the annualised QoQ GDP growth rate from Forex Factory. On the right of the image is a legend that indicates the level of impact it has on the AUD.

As can be seen, both the annualised QoQ GDP growth rate data is expected o result in a high impact on the AUD.

In the 2nd quarter of 2020, the Australian economy contracted by an annualised rate of 7% compared to a 0.3% contraction in the first quarter. This contraction was worse than analysts’ expectation of 6%. This contraction is expected to depreciate the AUD relative to other currencies.

Let’s now analyse the impact made by this release on the Forex price charts of a few selected pairs.

AUD/USD: Before Annualised QoQ GDP Growth Rate Release on 
September 2, 2020, Just Before 1.30 AM GMT

From the above 15-minute chart, the AUD/USD pair was trading in a neutral trend before the data release. This trend is evidenced by candles forming just around an already flat 20-period Moving Average. However, 30 minutes to the news release, the pair adopted a steep downtrend forming two long bearish candles with the 20-period MA falling.

AUD/USD: After the Annualised QoQ GDP Growth Rate Release on 
September 2, 2020, at 1.30 AM GMT

After the data release, extreme volatility is observed. As expected, the pair forming a long 15-minute bearish candle due to the weakening AUD. The 20-period MA continued to fall steeply even though the pair started recovering from the worse than expected data release. Subsequently, the steepness of the 20-period MA subsided.

GBP/AUD: Before Annualised QoQ GDP Growth Rate Release on 
September 2, 2020, Just Before 1.30 AM GMT

The GBP/AUD pair traded in a similar pattern as observed with the AUD/USD pair before the annualised GDP data release.

GBP/AUD: After the Annualised QoQ GDP Growth Rate Release on 
September 2, 2020, at 1.30 AM GMT

As expected, after the news release, the pair formed a long 15-minute bullish candle due to the weakening AUD. As with the AUD/USD pair, the GBP/AUD pair underwent a period of correction with the 20-period MA flattening and the subsequent candles forming lower than the news candle.

EUR/AUD: Before Annualised QoQ GDP Growth Rate Release on 
September 2, 2020, Just Before 1.30 AM GMT

EUR/AUD: After the Annualised QoQ GDP Growth Rate Release on 
September 2, 2020, at 1.30 AM GMT

Like the other pairs, the EUR/AUD pair traded within a neutral trend with a significant shift in the trend immediately before the GDP data release. Like the GBP/AUD pair, the EUR/AUD pair formed a long 15-minute bullish candle after the news release due to the worse than expected data.

Bottom Line

The above analyses have shown that the GDP annual growth has a significant effect on price action. The period of relative market inactivity before the data release indicates that most forex traders avoid opening any new, significant positions until the data is released.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Sept 7 – Peter Schiff: “I Was Wrong About Bitcoin”; Bitcoin Facing $9,000 or Recovering?

The cryptocurrency market has been trying to establish its position after the pullback that happened on Wednesday and Thursday. Bitcoin is currently trading for $10,260, which represents a decrease of 1.34% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum recovered from its big drop and gained 7.3% on the day, while XRP gained 2.67%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

When taking a look at the top100 cryptocurrencies, SushiSwap gained 79.68% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. UMA (31.22%) and Flexacoin (26.59%) also did great. On the other hand, the HedgeTrade lost 20.50%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Hyperion’s loss of 15.70%. The rest of the market was either in the green or lost sub-1% of its value.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has gone up slightly, with its value is currently at 59.61%, which represents a 0.32% difference to the upside when compared to when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has gone down slightly in the past 24 hours. Its current value is $331.58 billion, which represents a decrease of $3.07 billion when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

After failing to break the $12,000 mark, BTC bears have taken over the market, causing the price to plummet, reaching as low as $10,000. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap took the weekend to consolidate and establish its presence above $10,000. However, the $10,360 resistance level proves its strength once again, making Bitcoin’s rebound towards the upside that much harder.

If the bulls fail to break the $10,360 level and sustain it, the bears will most likely make one more attempt to bring the price down. In this case, a drop to the 200-day SMA ($9,080) is likely. However, if BTC manages to bounce off the current level and rise above $10,500, a move to $11,000 is likely.

Traders should pay close attention to Bitcoin’s price movement around the $10,360 level, as the next move will determine its short-term future.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:
  • Price is well below its 50-period and 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is recovering from being in the oversold territory (38.77)
  • Volume is descending (from extremely high)
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $10,360                                1: $10,015

2: $10,500                                2: $9,870

3: $10,850                                 3: $9,600

Ethereum

Ethereum had a similar weekend as Bitcoin, as its price consolidated and tried to establish itself above the most recent low of $310. While its price did get stuck at the $360 resistance level, it increased in value much more than Bitcoin, most likely due to the growing popularity of DeFi.

With all being said, Ethereum’s short-term future will be decided by the popularity of DeFi and the problems it will encounter with extremely high Gas fees.

Traders should pay attention to how ETH handles the $360 level.


ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:
  • The price is well below its 21-period and 50-period EMA
  • The price is near its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is neutral and recovering from being oversold (40.82)
  • Volume is descending (from high)
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $371                                     1: $360

2: $400                                     2: $340

3: $415                                      3: $300

Ripple

While XRP suffered the same fate as Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of price movement, the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap did have slight differences in the move towards the downside. XRP had several bull comebacks that tried to push the price back up, but failed due to the overall bearishness of the market.

XRP is now consolidating between the $0.235 and $0.2454, with low volume and no signs of future movement (unless the technicals change drastically).

XRP traders should watch out for any form of break of the immediate support/resistance levels.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:
  • The price is well below its 21-period and 50-period EMA
  • Price is near its middle Bollinger band
  • RSI is recovering from being oversold (40.84)
  • Volume is low (back from elevated)
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.2454                                  1: $0.235 

2: $0.266                                    2: $0.227

3: $0.285                                   3: $0.221

 

Categories
Crypto Daily Topic

The Upsides and Downsides of Trading Forex with Bitcoin

Forex trading and cryptocurrency trading are the most popular investments for the modern investor. Forex trading, in particular, is the largest trading market in the globe – operating every single hour of every single day.  Cryptocurrencies, which have become uber-popular in less than a decade, have injected a very interesting dimension to the investment landscape. 

Now, forex brokers are embracing Bitcoin – the largest and most successful crypto, as a trading pair, as well as other cryptocurrencies. But before you decide to throw your hard-earned Bitcoin in the pool, let’s first find out what you need to know. 

The Upsides 

#1. No centralized control:  When you’re trading forex with Bitcoin, you know it’s not controlled by any single entity – state or otherwise. Cryptocurrency is free from any sort of centralized control, as well as macroeconomic factors such as inflation and interest rates. 

#2. High leverages: Most forex brokers now offer quite generous margins for bitcoin trades. If you’re an experienced trader, you can capitalize on such margins for potentially more lucrative trades. Bear in mind, though that with margin trading, the potential loss is of the same magnitude as the potential profit. This means you should exercise great caution with high margin trading. 

#3. Affordable deposit amounts: Some forex trading platforms allow you to deposit as little as $25 to start trading forex with Bitcoin. Other platforms even match your initial deposit amount. As a trader, you can take advantage of these offers. However, make sure the trading firm is legit before you deposit money.

#4. Low trading costs: In order to attract more crypto users to the fold, forex trading platforms are charging very tiny amounts of fees. 

#5. Security and privacy: Unlike with traditional money, when trading with Bitcoin, you can keep your financial info like debit/credit card details private. 

#6. No geopolitical boundaries: Bitcoin transactions transcend all boundaries. A trader in Nigeria can trade forex via a broker based in Australia – as long as both parties are willing to transact. 

The  Downsides

While trading forex with Bitcoin has several bright sides, it also has not-so-bright ones. 

#1. Varying exchange rates: Different exchanges feature different exchange rates for Bitcoin. Ensure that you know which Bitcoin exchange rate your would-be broker uses. 

#2. U.S. dollar exchange rate: Due to the volatility of Bitcoin, forex brokers usually exchange Bitcoin deposits for U.S. dollars immediately. Even if you don’t enter a trade as soon as you deposit Bitcoin, you’re still exposed to any losses that may occur from the exchange process. 

#3. Volatility: Bitcoin is infamously volatile. And due to the lack of regulation in the Bitcoin market, rogue forex brokers can manipulate this volatility to their advantage and to the trader’s disadvantage. 

#4. Security Risks: Bitcoin and other cryptos are usually high targets for sophisticated hackers. No single online storage is safe enough – and that includes exchanges and your broker’s Bitcoin wallet. For this reason, you want to use a forex broker that has insurance against theft/loss of funds. 

#5. Risk of Loss Through Leverage: The risk of losing money via leverage trading is always there. If you’re a beginner forex with Bitcoin trader, you ought to watch out for this risk.

Mixing Asset Types: Bitcoin belongs to a wildly disparate asset class from the ones traditionally found in Forex trading. How Bitcoin is assigned value is also different. Trading forex with Bitcoin introduces a new dynamic that could trigger both loss and profits in unexpected ways. 

Closing Thoughts

Bitcoin is gaining traction in entirely new frontiers. One of these is forex trading – which both brokers and traders seek to capitalize on Bitcoin’s best. This article should help you navigate the contours of trading forex with Bitcoin more successfully.

Categories
Forex System Design

Introduction to Walk-Forward Analysis – Part 2

Introduction

In the previous part, we introduced the walk-forward analysis concept, its objectives, and its advantages. This educational article will continue discovering the benefits of using the WFA and how to set it up.

Walk-Forward Analysis and Market Impacts

The walk-forward analysis provides information about the impact of changes in trends, volatility, and market liquidity on the performance of the trading strategy or system. Generally,  when these changes occur, they arrive at a fast pace, heavily degrading the trading performance.

The WFA may extend its study in a wide range of time; however, analyses and evaluates the trading performance by separate windows. The broad range of results obtained by the study could provide the developer with a piece of useful information about the market changes impact the trading strategy performance.

Parameters Selection

As a robust optimization system, the WFA can provide the most appropriate parameters for real-time trading.

Simultaneously, the walk-forward analysis provides the strategy developer with the duration of the optimal period of time in which the set of parameters will consistently produce real-time benefits before the deterioration in trading system performance occurs.

Statistical Rigor in the Walk-Forward Analysis

As mentioned above, a large amount of data provides greater confidence in any phenomenon’s statistical study. This concept is also valid in the walk-forward analysis.

In this context, the walk-forward analysis must be large enough to produce several trades such that a large amount of data can be generated for the study. According to Pardo, in his work, he says that a WFA must be as long as possible, usually at least 10 to 20 years, whenever possible. Finally, he adds that these multiple walk-forwards combined performance will often be sufficient to produce the statistical rigor required in the analysis.

As a result, WFA’s multiple optimization windows will be able to give the developer a better idea of how the trading strategy will behave in the face of market changes.

Developing the Walk-Forward Analysis

A walk-forward analysis consists of two stages. In the first section, traditional backtest optimization is developed. The parameters of the trading strategy are analyzed using a sample established according to the developer’s objectives.

The second stage, which is the one that characterizes a walk-forward analysis, evaluates the performance of the parameters using an additional sample that was not used during the previous optimization stage.

The walk-forward analysis process requires the following elements to be set:

  1. Scan range for variables to optimize. The developer must define the time frame in which the trading strategy’s optimization should be performed. The developer should consider that the scan range uses a computational resources level that it will use to evaluate and weight the parameter to be optimized. In this regard, an exploration in a small number of historical simulations will consume less computational resources than a more extensive optimization.
  2. Identify a target or a search function. The developer must define what the purpose of the optimization study is.  A usual target can be a mix of the normalized average trade return (the reward/risk factor), the standard deviation of this figure, and the percentage of winning trades. These three factors will define the quality of any trading system. A fourth key factor is the number of monthly trades delivered by the system.
  3. Size of the optimization window. Generally, this optimization range can vary from 3 to 6 years. This duration depends on different factors such as, for example, the market, the type of trading strategy, the confidence level required by the developer in the optimization results, among other factors determined by the developer.
  4. Size of the walk-forward out-of-sample window. This period is defined based on the optimization window. In most cases, this window can be between 25% and 35% of the optimization time.

The length of the optimization window is determined by:

  1. Availability of data. Depending on the type of market and accessibility of the data to perform the analysis, the developer might find a restriction on the amount of historical data needed to perform strategy optimization.
  2. Trading strategy style. A short-term trading strategy should require a smaller optimization window than a long-term strategy.
  3. The pace of trading strategy. The pace of strategy is highly variable and tends to vary from strategy to strategy. For example, a long-term strategy, such as swing trading, will slower than a short-term trading strategy, which will require less time to produce the same number of trades.
  4. The relevance of data. The relevant data depends on a large number of factors that could empirically be determined. However, Pardo proposes a basic guideline stating that a short-term strategy can be tested using one or two years of data, whereas an intermediate-term strategy would require two to four years, and a long-term strategy four to eight years of data.
  5. The validity of the strategy’s parameters. The developer expects the parameters employed will generate benefits in the historical simulation. Furthermore, it also requires a trading strategy to produce profits in real-time market trading.

Finally, the walk-forward analysis is a post-optimization method, highly effective and revealing when it comes to discriminating a trading system’s robustness. Regarding that, the market is dynamic and changes periodically; the trading system should be re-optimized with a certain periodicity.

For example, a properly optimized short-term strategy could be re-optimized between three and six months of real-time trading. While the long-term between one and two years.

Conclusions

In this second and final part, we reviewed the basics of walk-forward analysis, characterized by providing the trading system developer with a powerful tool for testing, validation, and measuring trading strategy. Among the benefits that this stage of the development of a trading system provides we can mention:

  1. Measurement of robustness.
  2. Reduction of overfitting.
  3. Assessment of market changes in the trading strategy.
  4. Selection of optimal parameters for the strategy.
  5. Statistical reliability, when correctly applied.

Finally, despite the benefits provided by this analysis methodology, the strategy developer should consider that the trading system may need to be re-optimized with a certain periodicity.

Suggested Readings

  • Jaekle, U., Tomasini, E.; Trading Systems: A New Approach to System Development and Portfolio Optimisation; Harriman House Ltd.; 1st Edition (2009).
  • Pardo, R.; The Evaluation and Optimization of Trading Strategies; John Wiley & Sons; 2nd Edition (2008).

 

Categories
Forex Assets

Asset Analysis – Trading Costs Involved While Trading The CAD/AED Currency Pair

Introduction

CAD/AED is a Forex exotic currency pair, where CAD represents the currency of Canada, an AED is the currency of the UAE. In this exotic currency pair, CAD is the base first, and AED is the second currency.

Understanding CADAED

This pair’s price determines the value of AED, which is equivalent to one CAD. We can term it as 1 CAD per X numbers of AED. For example, if the CAD/AED pair’s value is at 2.8007; therefore, we need almost 2.8007 AED to buy one CAD.

CADAED Specification

Spread

In every financial market, Spread represents the difference between the Bid and Ask. It is usually a charge that is deducted by the forex broker. This value changes with the type of execution model.

Spread on ECN: 10 pips | Spread on STP: 15 pips

Fees

The trading fees in the forex market and stock market are the same. It is deducted from the traders’ accounts as soon as they open a new position. Note that STP accounts do not charge anything, but a few pips charges on ECN accounts.

Slippage

Slippage happens when price opens above or below the execution level. Slippage occurs because of two important reasons – market volatility and broker’s execution speed.

Trading Range in CADAED

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

CADAED Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

The volatility values on the above table indicate how the cost varies with the change in market volatility. All we did is to get the ratio between the total cost and the volatility values and converted them into percentages.

ECN Model Account 

Spread = 10 | Slippage = 5 | Trading fee = 8

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee

= 10 + 5 + 8 = 23

STP Model Account

Spread = 10 | Slippage = 5 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee

= 10 + 5 + 0 = 15

The Ideal way to trade the CADAED

The CADAED is an exotic cross currency pair with higher volatility and liquidity. Because of this, traders may find it easy to trade in this pair. We can see that the percentage values above where the value did not move above 230% that represents a higher trading cost in the lower timeframe. However, when we move to the monthly timeframe, the average cost came to below 2%.

Therefore, trading intraday in this currency pair is risky due to the high trading cost. On the other hand, trading in a higher timeframe has less cost, but it requires a lot of patience and time. Overall, for every trader, it is recommended to stick on trading where the trading cost is at the average value.

Another way to reduce the cost is to place a pending order as ‘limit’ and ‘stop’ instead of ‘market.’ In that case, there will be no slippage in the calculation of the total costs. So, in our example, the overall cost will be reduced by five pips.

STP Model Account (Using limit orders) 

Spread = 10 | Slippage = 0 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee

= 10 + 0 + 0 = 10

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

What is Producer Prices Change and what should you know about it?

Introduction

For forex traders, the producer prices change come as an afterthought. The changes in the prices of the output by domestic producers is a vital macroeconomic indicator since it is considered a leading indicator of inflation. Therefore, understanding how these changes impact the economy, the rate of inflation, and the currency can be useful to forex traders.

Understanding Producer Prices Change

Producer prices change in the United States is measured using the producer price index (PPI). The PPI is a weighted index that measures the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

The consumer price index is the most cited metric for measuring inflation. However, PPI can be used as a measure of inflation; because it tracks the changes in prices from the perspective of producers. CPI tracks price changes from the consumers’ perspective. Therefore, PPI can be used as the foremost tracker of inflation since it measures the changes in the prices of output before it is distributed to the consumers. PPI can be considered to the purest change in the prices of output since it does not include the changes caused by sales taxes and mark-ups by retailers. Hence, PPI is predictive of the CPI, as shown by the correlation in the chart below.

Source: St. Louis FRED

Since the PPI does not represent the general and final changes in the prices of goods and services in an economy, it is regarded as a weak economic indicator in the forex market.

How PPI is measured

Although the PPI is quoted as the change in the price of the producers’ output, it is measured in three distinct stages based on the level of production. They include the PPI Commodity Index, which measures the changes in the price of input materials, PPI Processing Index, which measures the changes in the price of intermediate goods, and Core PPI, which measures the finished output.

It is worth noting that the prices of food and energy are considered to be highly volatile and are therefore not included in the computation of the core PPI. This omission is justified by the fact that their prices are reliant on the short term supply and demand, which makes it difficult to compare these prices in the long-run.

As mentioned earlier, PPI is a weighted index. Weighting means the size and importance of the items sampled are used. The changes in prices compared to those of 1982 as the base year.

How can the PPI be used for analysis?

The inflation data is among the most-watched economic indicators because the rate of inflation informs the monetary and fiscal policies in a country. Being a leading indicator for the CPI, the PPI serves an important role. This role is precipitated by the fact that inflation is one of the primary drivers of monetary and fiscal policies.

Rising inflation signifies the availability of cheap money, which encourages spending and investments. The Federal Reserve then raises interest rates to reduce the amount of money in circulation. At higher interest rates, borrowing money becomes expensive hence reducing consumption. Similarly, it becomes lucrative for households to save money since they earn more. Postponing consumption tends to reduce the amount of money I circulation hence lower rates of inflation.

Inarguably, low rates of inflation result in a stagnant economy. Although inflation is good for the economy, when it gets out of hand, it results in a rapid depreciation of a country’s currency. It is for this reason that the central banks use interest rate policies to set the desired maximum and minimum inflation rate. In the US, for example, the Federal Reserve has set the country’s inflation target at an average of 2%.

An increase in the PPI signifies that the overall rate of the CPI will also increase. This increase will reduce the purchasing power of the country’s currency since the same amount of money will afford a lesser quantity of goods and services. Therefore, an increasing rate of inflation encourages consumption within an economy because savers will be afraid that their money will lose value.

This increased consumption leads to growth within an economy. Conversely, a decreasing PPI signifies that the overall inflation is likely to reduce. This reduction, in turn, encourages people to save their money hence reducing the rate of consumption in an economy.

Inflation can result in a feedback loop. Hence, rising inflation will encourage more expenditure and investment in an economy leading to further inflation. This feedback loop occurs when savers opt for consumption to avoid the depreciation of their money; this, in turn, increases the amount of money in circulation, which causes the purchasing power of money even to reduce further.

Impact on Currency

The end goal for any forex trader is to establish whether a change in any fundamental indicator will lead to an interest rate hike or cuts. This anticipation is what primarily impacts the price action in the forex market.

A rising PPI  signifies rising inflation, which would be accompanied by an increase in the interest rates. Since the increasing interest rate is good for the currency, an increase in PPI results in appreciation of the currency relative to others.

Conversely, dropping levels of PPI signifies that the overall rate of inflation will fall. Therefore, a steadily dropping PPI forestall a drop in the interest rate. Therefore, decreasing levels of PPI leads to a depreciating currency.

Sources of Producer Price Changes

The producer price changes data can be accessed from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, along with the monthly updates. A comprehensive look into the US PPI data can also be accessed from St. Louis FRED website. Statistics on global producer price changes can be accessed at Trading Economics.

How PPI Data Release Affects The Forex Price Charts

The most recent PPI data was released on August 11, 2020, and can be seen at Forex factory here. A more in-depth review of the PPI report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics can be accessed at the BLS website.

As can be seen, both the monthly PPI and core PPI data are expected to have a high impact on the USD upon release.

The screengrab below shows the most recent changes in the MoM PPI and core PPI in the US. In July 2020, the monthly PPI increased by 0.5% compared to a 0.3% decrease in June. The core PPI increased by 0.6% in July compared to a 0.2% decrease in June. Both changes in the MoM PPI and core PPI were better than analysts’ expectations of 0.1% and 0.3% increase, respectively.

Now, let’s see how this release made an impact on the Forex price charts of a few selected pairs.

EUR/USD: Before Monthly PPI Release on August 11, 2020, 
Just Before 8.30 AM ET

As can be seen from the above 15-minute chart of EUR/USD, the pair was on a steady uptrend before the release of PPI data. This trend is evidenced by candles forming above the steeply rising 20-period MA. However, 30 minutes before the release, the steady uptrend tapered with the 20-period MA peaking.

EUR/USD: After Monthly PPI Release on August 11, 2020, 
at 8.30 AM ET

After the PPI data release, the pair formed a 15-minute bullish candle followed by a period of volatility. The pair later adopted a bearish trading pattern with the 20-period MA steadily sloping downwards, showing that the USD became stronger as expected.

Now let’s see how this news release impacted other major currency pairs.

GBP/USD: Before Monthly PPI Release on August 11, 2020, 
Just Before 8.30 AM ET

Before the news release, the GBP/USD pair showed a similar steady uptrend as observed with the EUR/USD pair. As seen above, the 20-period MA is steeply rising with candles forming above it.

GBP/USD: After Monthly PPI Release on August 11, 2020, 
at 8.30 AM ET

After the PPI release, the pair formed a 15-minute bullish “hammer” candle. As with the EUR/USD, the pair subsequently reversed the uptrend and traded in a steady downtrend, the 20-period MA sloping downwards.

AUD/USD: Before Monthly PPI Release on August 11, 2020, 
Just Before 8.30 AM ET

AUD/USD: After Monthly PPI Release on August 11, 2020, 
at 8.30 AM ET

Unlike the strong uptrend observed with the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs, the AUD/USD pair traded in a weak uptrend before the PPI data release. This trend is evidenced by candles forming just around the slightly rising 20-period MA. After the news release, the pair formed a 15-minute “bearish Doji” candle signifying a period of volatility. The pair subsequently reversed the trend adopting a steady bearish stance with the 20-period MA sloping downwards.

Bottom Line

Although the PPI is a relatively low impact fundamental indicator compared to the CPI, this analysis has proved that its release has a significant impact on the price action. Forex traders should avoid having any significant positions open before the release of the PPI.

Categories
Forex Price Action

Fibonacci Trading: Fibonacci Levels Maximize Profit for Intraday Traders

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an H1 chart offering an entry by using intraday support/resistance. To go with it, Fibonacci levels are used to spot out the stop-loss and take-profit levels. Let us now get started.

The chart shows that the price makes a long bearish move. The H1 chart makes a breakout at the last day’s lowest low (black drawn line). Usually, the chart attracts the sellers to look for short opportunities upon getting a bearish reversal candle. However, look at the combination of the last three candles. It is called Morning Star, which is one of the strongest bullish reversal patterns.

The price heads towards the North and goes back in the last day’s lowest low. Moreover, it makes a breakout at today’s highest high as well (black drawn line). Within four candles, the chart looks good for the buyers. The buyers may look to go long in the pair upon getting a bullish reversal candle at the breakout level.

The chart produces a bearish candle. The breakout level seems to hold the price as a level of support. A bullish reversal candle at the level may attract the buyers to go long and push the price towards the North further.

Here it comes. The chart produces a bullish engulfing candle right at the breakout level. The buyers may trigger a long entry right after the last candle closes by setting stop loss below the lowest low of the signal candle. We are going to talk about the take profit level in a minute. Let us find out how the trade goes.

The chart produces a bullish candle. The price heads towards the upside with the next candle as well. However, the candle comes out as a Doji candle having a long upper shadow. It suggests that the price may make a bearish correction or make a bearish reversal. Since the trade setup is based on the H1 chart, the buyers may lose a good number of pips if they are to wait for the chart to produce a reversal candle to close their entry. It is tough to manage trade in the H1 chart manually. Thus, setting the take profit is the best way. The question is, where should we set our take profit? In this regard, Fibonacci levels come extremely handy. Let us draw the Fibonacci levels in the chart and find out how they work in the chart above.

There you go. The price produces a bullish reversal candle at 61.8% level and heads towards the level of 161.8%. It means the buyers may achieve 1:2 risk-reward easily by using Fibonacci levels in intraday trading. In our fore coming lessons, we are going to demonstrate more examples of integration of Fibonacci levels and intraday trading. Stay tuned.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Sept 4 – Bitcoin at $10,000: What Happened? Detailed Price Level Analysis

The cryptocurrency market has been decimated after Bitcoin plummeted below $11,000. Bitcoin is currently trading for $10,260, which represents a decrease of 10.02% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 12.07% on the day, while XRP lost 9.21%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

When taking a look at the top100 cryptocurrencies, TRON gained 15.35% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. Celo (13.98%) and ZB Token (8.75%) also did great. On the other hand, the Ampleforth lost 33.29%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Sushi Swap’s loss of 32.41% and DFI. Money’s drop of 32.28%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has gone up slightly, with its value is currently at 59.29%, represents a 0.67% difference to the upside when compared to when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has plummeted in the past 24 hours. Its current value is $334.65 billion, which represents a decrease of $39.74 billion when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

After failing to break the $12,000 mark, Bitcoin bears have taken over the market and the price plummeted, reaching as low as $10,000. While it was true that many people were bullish and called for a bull market, Bitcoin’s continuous failed attempts to break $12,000 took its toll and started a short-term bear trend that could reach $9,600 at some point.

There are many reasons that caused Bitcoin (and the rest of the crypto market) to plummet, mainly the US traditional market, DeFi, miners as well as traders.

  1. The US S&P 500 index pulled back on Thursday after reaching record highs just earlier this week. This happened because of a US report showing jobless claims of over 881,000 in August. While this number was, in fact, better than expected, it is still much larger than the one that the US saw during the 2009 recession high-point (665,000). Bitcoin is not completely uncorrelated from the traditional markets and has most likely reacted slightly to this news.
  2. While the DeFi craze is continuing, many believe that the fact that people are locking billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin may cause any form of market manipulation or influx of buyers/sellers much more significant due to reduced supply in circulation. It is also not implausible that DeFi is in a bubble (even some DeFi project leaders/creators such as Yearn Finance’s Andre Cronje say it), and that this is a form of a bubble “pop”.
  3. Miners and traders gathered up to sell Bitcoin at the $12,000 mark, which triggered this crash. Miners tried to secure their profits and play it safe, and traders most likely did the same, as they saw strong resistance sitting at the $12,000 level. All of the big mining pools saw large BTC outflows from the wallets, incidacting a market play with the intention to take profits and secure gains.

Traders should pay attention to Bitcoin’s price movement around $10,090 and $10,400.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:
  • Price is well below its 50-period and 21-period EMA
  • Price is just above its lower band
  • RSI is deep in the oversold territory (21.56)
  • Volume is elevated
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $10,360                                1: $10,015

2: $10,500                                2: $9,870

3: $10,850                                 3: $9,600

Ethereum

Ethereum had a similar day to Bitcoin, with its price plummeting and reaching as low as $371. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap tried to break the downward pressure after dropping below $445. It quickly bounced off of $415 and pushed towards the upside. However, the $445 level was now resistance, and after a failed attempt to break it, ETH moved further down.

Ethereum is now in its consolidation/recovery stage near $380.

Traders should pay attention to any influx in volume as well as how ETH handles $415.


ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:
  • The price is well below its 21-period and 50-period EMA
  • The price is just above the lower band
  • RSI is in the oversold territory (28.35)
  • Volume is descending (from extremely high)
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $400                                     1: $371

2: $415                                     2: $360

3: $445                                                 

Ripple

XRP was no exception when it comes to today’s price movement. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap plummeted and reached as low as $0.238 before starting to recover. The price is now recovering at the $0.2454 support level, which is (at the moment) contested. It is still unsure of whether XRP will end up above or below it, so traders should watch out to a breakout to any side.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:
  • The price is far below its 21-period and 50-period EMA
  • Price is at its lower band
  • RSI is in the oversold area (29.09)
  • Volume is above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.266                                   1: $0.2454 

2: $0.285                                   2: $0.235

3: $0.31                                    3: $0.227

 

Categories
Forex Options

FX Options Market Combined Volume Expiries for 4th September 2020

Thank you for visiting the Forex Academy FX Options market combined volume expiries section. Each day, where available, we will bring you notable maturities in FX Options of amounts of $100 million-plus, and where these large combined maturities at specified currency exchange rates often have a magnetic effect on price action, especially in the hours leading to their maturities, which happens daily at 10.00 AM Eastern time. This is because the big institutional players hedge their positions accordingly. Each option expiry should be considered ‘in-play’ with a good chance of a strike if labelled in red, still in play and a possible strike if labelled in orange and ‘out of play’ and an unlikely strike if labelled in blue, with regard to the likelihood of price action meeting the strike price at maturity.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………

FX option expiries for Sept 4 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.

– EUR/USD: EUR amounts

  • 1.1700 870m
  • 1.1780 615m
  • 1.1790 1.8bn
  • 1.1800 811m
  • 1.1850 651m
  • 1.1875 968m
  • 1.1900 2.4bn
  • 1.1905 554m
  • 1.1950 958m

EURUSD pair is flattening off to the upside. A huge cluster of option expiries in the locality of the current exchange rate should keep price action in this area at least until US data out later. Watch out for continuing US dollar strength.

– GBP/USD: GBP amounts

  • 1.3100 261m
  • 1.3350 270m

GBPUSD pair is in a tight sideways consolidation. UK and US data out later will be important for a potential breakout.

– USD/JPY: USD amounts

  • 105.00 692m
  • 105.55 482m
  • 105.75 365m
  • 106.00 1.8bn
  • 106.50 613m
  • 106.60 570m
  • 106.65 870m
  • 106.75 455m
  • 106.95 634m
  • 107.00 702m

USDJPY is touching oversold with the likely candidate for a strike at 106.00 with some yen safe-haven buying in this turbulent US dollar resurgence. US data up later will be important for the next trend.

– AUD/USD: AUD amounts

  • 0.7200 598m

AUDUSD finding support near 0.7250 leaving the single option expiry out of play.

– NZD/USD: NZD amounts

  • 0.6610 351m

NZDUSD is consolidating. The option is out of play.

………………………………………………………………………………….

As you can see on the preferred 1-hour chart(s), we have also plotted the expiration levels at the various exchange rate maturities and we have also labelled in red, orange and blue.  Therefore, if you see option expiry exchange rates labelled in red these should be considered in-play, because we believe there is a greater chance of the expiry maturing at these levels based on technical analysis at the time of writing. There is still a lesser possibility of a strike if they are in orange and so these are ‘in-play’ too. However, if we have labelled them in blue, they should be considered ‘not in-play’ and therefore price action would be unlikely to reach these levels, which are often referred to as Strikes, at the time of the 10 AM New York cut.

Our technical analysis is based on exchange rates which may be several hours earlier in the day and may not reflect price action at the time of the maturities. Also, we have not factored in economic data releases or keynote speeches by policymakers, or potential market volatility leading up to the cut.

Although we have added some technical analysis, we suggest you take the levels and plot them onto your own trading charts and incorporate the information into your own trading methodology in order to use the information to your advantage. Remember the higher the amount, the larger the gravitational pull towards the exchange rate maturity at 10:00 AM Eastern time.

If you want to learn how forex option expiries affect price action in the spot FX market see our educational article by clicking here: https://bit.ly/2VR2Nji

DISCLAIMER: Please note that this information is for educational purposes. Also, the maturities will look more or less likely to become a strike at 10 AM NY time due to exchange rate fluctuations resulting in a different perspective with regard to technical analysis, and also due to upcoming economic data releases for the associated pairs.

Categories
Forex Videos

The Dollar Index & The COVID 19 Effect!

U

The Dollar Index and the COVID-19 Effect

Thank you for viewing this Forex academy educational video. In this session, we will be looking at the U.S. dollar index and how it has been affected by the global pandemic.

The Dollar Index is also known by the following acronyms, the DXY, or DX, and USDX. The United States dollar is the single largest currency traded in the forex market. The U.S. dollar index is a weighted measurement of the value of the United States dollar against six other currencies, including the euro, the Japanese yen, Australian dollar, the British pound, the Canadian dollar, the Swedish krona, and the Swiss franc. The values of the dollar index or updated every few seconds during normal market trading activity.
If you like to trade any of these pairs, it is advisable that you keep an eye on the U.S. dollar index at all times.


This is a historical 6-month view of the dollar index, and although the pandemic was already starting to escalate in February, the disease was mostly effecting Europe and Asia, and after a move lower, the index climbed to a high of 103.00 just one month later due to its safe-haven status. However, this healthy level for the United States dollar has fallen off since that high to a low of 92.54 at the beginning of August.
This dollar fall has largely been due to the fact that Europe is seen to be recovering from the coronavirus and where governments such as the European Union and the British have been seen to be implementing monetary policies that will be good for the recovery for their respective economies. Also, Australia has handled the pandemic very well and where the infection rates have been quite low in that country.
On the flip side, we have the United States, which is systemically failing in coming to grips with the Corona outbreak, which has been escalated in many of the U.S. states.

While the federal reserve has been wildly applauded for their implementation of quantitative easing and handling of interest rates in reaction to the escalating economic fallout, President Donald Trump has been criticized for not taking the disease seriously enough, and many would say he has had his head in the buried in the sand hoping that it will go away and that much of his rhetoric surrounding that disease is tilted towards the upcoming presidential elections. This had caused the markets to wonder if America will actually get a grip on this horrendous disease, and this had caused market sentiment to shift away from the United States dollar in favor of the other major currencies, which have all pulled back from their lows when Europe was very badly hit back in March.

However, on Friday the 7th of August, the non-farm payroll reports took a little bit of heat of the DXY when it posted jobs growth of 1.76M in the United States for July, which went on to erase some of the concerns about the state of the United States labor market and this gave the dollar index a lift. In fact, it was up 0.6% at 93.40, a 3-day high. But this was still only bouncing off the loads of 7 weeks and straight declines.
While the boot has been firmly put into the U.S. Dollar in the last few months, it is important to remember that one month’s good U.S. jobs figures may not be enough to raise the U.S. dollar index back to its highs in March. The next biggest test will be whether or not the U.S. government can agree on a new pandemic relief package. So far, the democrats and republicans have been at each other’s throats and not being able to come to a successful conclusion on this matter with regard to how much relief is necessary. Watch this space. The outcome will affect the Dollar index.

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

Understanding The ‘Inflation Rate MoM’ Macro Economic Indicator

Introduction

The GDP and Inflation rate are two of the most closely watched macroeconomic statistics by economists, business analysts, investors, traders, government officials, and the general population. The inflation rate has an impact on everyone, and no one is exempt from it. Understanding its effect on the currency, economy, living conditions, and how to use it for our analysis is paramount.

What is Inflation Rate, MoM?

Inflation: The increase in the prices of commodities over time is called inflation. It is the rise in the cost of living over time where the purchasing power of the currency depreciates. Inflation erodes the value of the currency, meaning a unit of currency can procure lesser goods and services than before.  Inflation occurs when more currency is issued than the wealth of the country.

Inflation Rate: The percentage increase in price for a basket of goods and services for a particular period is called the inflation rate. It is used to measure the general increase in the cost of goods and services. It is contrasted by deflation, which refers to the appreciation of the currency and leads to decreased prices of commodities. When more currency chases, fewer assets inflation occurs.

Inflation Rate MoM: The general measure of the inflation rate is YoY, i.e., Year-over-Year. It serves as a means to measure how currency has faired over the year against inflation. The rate tells how fastly prices increased. The inflation rates are often low and incremental over time and hence make more sense for a YoY comparison for general use. However, for traders and investors, MoM is more useful for close monitoring to trade currencies.

How can the Inflation Rate MoM numbers be used for analysis?

As inflation continues, the standard of living deteriorates. Inflation is an essential economic indicator as it concerns the standard of living. Hence, it requires much attention to understand and analyze. Inflation can occur due to the following reasons: cost-push inflation, demand-pull inflation, and in-built inflation.

Demand-pull inflation: When too few goods are chased by too much money, we get demand-pull inflation. It is the most common form of inflation. The demand for commodities is so high that people are willing to pay higher prices.

Cost-push inflation: It occurs when there is a limit or constraint on the supply side of the demand-supply equation. A limited supply of a particular commodity makes it valuable, pushing its price higher. It can also occur when the cost of manufacturing or procuring raw materials increase that forces businesses to sell at higher prices.

Built-in inflation: It occurs out of people’s adaptive expectations of future inflation. As prices surge, workers demand higher pay due to which manufacturing costs increase and form a feedback loop. It forms a wage-price spiral as one feeds of another to reach a new higher equilibrium.

Inflation mainly affects middle-class and minimum wage workers as they immediately experience the effects of inflation. Generally, the monthly inflation rates would be less than 1% or 0.00 to 0.20% in general. Such increments can be useful for currency traders to short or long currency pairs by comparing relative inflation rates.

Central authorities are committed to ensuring a low and steady inflation rate throughout. The policies are also drafted to counter inflation or deflation. The central authorities would likely intervene with a loose-monetary policy to inject money into the system and induce inflation when the economy is undergoing a slowdown or deflation. A tight monetary policy (withdrawing money from the economy) would be used to induce deflation to counter hyperinflation.

Impact on Currency

The monthly inflation rates are essential economic indicators for both equity and currency traders. It is an inversely proportional high-impact coincident indicator. An increase in the inflation rate deteriorates currency value and vice-versa. As it has a direct impact on the currency, the volatility induced as a result of significant changes in the inflation rate is also high.

Economic Reports

There are multiple indices to measure the inflation rate. The CPI, Producer Price Index (PPI), Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), GDP Deflators are all popular statistics used for measuring inflation in a variety of ways.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the United States releases the CPI and PPI reports on its official website every month. The GDP Deflator is published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) every quarter. The PCE is also published by BEA every month.

Sources of Inflation Rate MoM

BLS publishes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) on its official website. The data is available in seasonally adjusted and non-adjusted versions, as inflation is also affected by business cycles. A comprehensive and visual representation of these statistics is available on the St. Louis FRED website. The BEA releases its quarterly GDP deflator statistics and monthly Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on its official website for the public. Consolidated statistics of monthly inflation reports of most countries are available on Trading Economics.

How the Monthly Inflation Rate Data Release Affects The Price Charts

For this analysis, we will use the monthly consumer price index (CPI) to measure the rate of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the MoM CPI data in the US. It measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. The most recent data was released on August 12, 2020, at 8.30 AM ET and can be accessed at Forex factory here. An in-depth review of the latest CPI data release can be accessed at the BLS website.

The image below shows the most recent changes in the MoM CPI in the US. In July 2020, the US CPI changed by 0.6%, the same increase as that of June.

Now, let’s see how this release made an impact on the Forex price charts.

EUR/USD: Before Monthly CPI Release on August 12, 2020, 
Just Before 8.30 AM ET

From the above 15-minute chart of the EUR/USD, the pair can be seen to be on a steady uptrend before the CPI data release. The 20-period MA in steeply rising with candles forming above it.

EUR/USD: After Monthly CPI Release on August 12, 2020, 
8.30 AM ET

After the data release, the pair formed a long 15-minute bullish candle indicating that the news release negatively impacted the USD. The pair subsequently continued trading in the previously observed uptrend.

Now let’s see how this news release impacted other major currency pairs.

AUD/USD: Before Monthly CPI Release on August 12, 2020, 
Just Before 8.30 AM ET

The AUD/USD pair traded in a subdued uptrend before the data release. The 15-minute candles are forming just around an almost flattening 20-period MA.

AUD/USD: After Monthly CPI Release on August 12, 2020, 
8.30 AM ET

Like the EUR/USD pair, the AUD/USD formed a long bullish 15-minute candle after the news release. Afterwards, the 20-period MA steeply rises as the pair adopted a steady uptrend.

NZD/USD: Before Monthly CPI Release on August 12, 2020, 
Just Before 8.30 AM ET

NZD/USD: After Monthly CPI Release on August 12, 2020, 
8.30 AM ET

Before the data release, the NZD/USD pair traded within a neutral pattern with the 15-minute candles crisscrossing an almost flattening 20-period MA. As observed with the other pairs, the NZD/USD formed a long 15-minute bullish candle after the news release. It subsequently traded in a steady uptrend with the 20-period MA steeply rising.

Bottom Line

In theory, an increasing rate of CPI should be a strong USD, but as observed in the above analyses, a high CPI resulted in a weakening USD. The CPI is often considered a leading indicator for interest rate; hence, a rising CPI is accompanied by a rising interest rate. However, since the US Fed had already indicated that it has no intention of increasing the interest rate, a high CPI implies a depreciating USD. It is, therefore, imperative that forex traders have the Fed’s decision in mind while trading with CPI data.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, September 03 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – A Day Before NFP! 

On the news front, the eyes will be on the U.S. ADP Non-farm payroll figures, which may drive price action during the New York session today. Besides, the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories will remain in highlights as economists expect a slight draw in U.S. oil stocks that may drive buying in WTI crude oil.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.18542 after placing a high of 1.19286 and a low of 1.18219. On Wednesday, Euro fell sharply against the U.S. dollar as the European Central Bank’s growing expectations will roll out additional stimulus after dismal Eurozone PMI data on Tuesday.

The Eurozone data on the previous day suggested that it had slipped into deflation as the prices of main goods were dropping for the first time in four years. As a result, markets were expecting another round of stimulus package from Europe’s central bank, which raised the European stocks higher.

The central bank’s expectations would unleash a new monetary stimulus, raised the global equities, and added pressure on EUR/USD pair. Expansion in more financial asset purchases is expected from ECB to stimulate the pandemic-stricken economy.

As the European Central Bank meeting is coming next week, some members have raised concerns that the Euro currency was rising sharply, and there was a need for more stimulus package in the economy. According to the ECB’s Chief Economist, Philip Lane, the euro currency levels do matter for monetary policy as a stronger currency generally weighs on export growth and curbs import prices that will lead to a slowdown in inflation.

These growing hopes for a fresh round of stimulus measures from ECB came in just after days the Federal Reserve announced its policy shift to tolerate a rise in inflation from its initial target of 2%. Investors interpreted the Fed’s latest decision as the interest rates will remain lower for longer.

These interpretations were also backed by the New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, who said that even talk of raising interest rates was so far off in the future. The hopes for another round of Europe’s stimulus weighed on the Euro currency and hence paired EUR/USD dropped.

On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German Retail Sales in July was dropped to -0.9% from the forecasted 0.5% and weighed on single currency Euro. At 12:00 GMT, the Spanish Unemployment Change in August rose to 29.8K from the expected 10.1K and weighed on the shared currency Euro and dragged EUR/USD pair further on the downside.

At 14:00 GMT, the Producer Price Index from Eurozone for July rose to 0.6% from the forecasted 0.5% and supported the Euro currency. Most of the data came in against shared currency, and hence EUR/USD pair suffered losses on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, from the U.S. side, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came in as 428K against the expected 1250K and weighed on the U.S. dollar but failed to reverse the EUR/USD pair’s bearish movement. However, the Factory Orders from the U.S. rose to 6.4% from the projected 6.0% and supported the U.S. dollar that added further in the EUR/USD pair’s losses on Wednesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1805 1.1868 1.1914
1.1759 1.1977
1.1696 1.2024

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

As expected, the EUR/USD continues to extend it’s selling bias to 1.1812 level after violating the support level of 1.1890 level. On the lower side, the EUR/USD may find support at 1.1780 level. Above this, we can expect the EUR/USD to take a bullish correction. But for now, we can see the selling trend in the EUR/USD pair. Today, EUR/USD may find resistance 1.1825. Bearish bias dominates.


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.33504 after placing a high of 1.34022 and a low of 1.32831. Overall the movement of the GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. After posting gains for three consecutive days and reaching its highest since December 2019, GBP/USD pair dropped on Wednesday and posted losses on the day. The fall in GBP/USD pair was triggered by the dovish commentary by the Bank of England on Wednesday.

Another reason behind the decreased GBP/USD pair prices was the increased safe-haven demand for the greenback that made the U.S. dollar strong and weighed on the currency pair. On Wednesday, the Governor of Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, said that the E.U.’s strategy to force Britain to follow E.U. rules in the future could be seen by European Union’s refusal to grant cross-border access to investment banking services from London.

European Union has said that as the Britain access to the bloc will end on December 31, the services of investment banks from London to E.U. member states will be blocked. E.U. said that it wanted to review the rules first, and then it will decide how much direct access it will grant all types of U.K. financial activity under its system.

British rules will be compared to the 27-nation bloc’s rules, and then the decision of whether to grant access will take place accordingly.

He also warned that the U.K. economy was facing a record level of uncertainty about its future and a significant risk that growth will be far weaker than recently forecasted. He added that the forecasts made in August were done in the face of huge uncertainty due to the continuous fight against COVID-19, structural economic changes, and stalled Brexit trade talks.

These comments weighed on a single currency British Pound and added in the losses of GBP/USD pair on the day. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar rose on Wednesday as the concerns around the U.S. elections and the ongoing US-China tensions have restored the appetite for the safe-haven greenback. 

Despite a sharp decline in the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in August, the U.S. dollar continued to post gains and weighed on GBP/USD pair. In July from the U.S., the Factory orders were increased to 6.4% from the forecasted 6.0% and supported the U.S. dollar that added further pressure on GBP/USD pair.

From the Great Britain side, at 04:01 GMT, the BRC Shop Price Index for the year dropped to -1.6% in September from the previous -1.3%. At 10:57 GMT, the Nationwide Housing Price Index in August rose to 2.0% from the expected 0.5% and supported the Sterling. At 13:30 GMT, the House Price Index from the U.K. for the year increased to 2.9% from the projected 2.8%.

Furthermore, the BoE Deputy Governor, Ben Broadbent, said on Wednesday that fears that BoE was bailing out the U.K. government by financing its coronavirus surge in public spending were misplaced and the central bank has not lost its credibility.

Just like Broadbent, several BoE officials have sought to explain that the central bank’s decision to ramp up its government bond-buying since the COVID-19 crisis was not to restore monetary financing of the government’s spending push. Moreover, the British Pound also fell on Wednesday as the uncertainty over a post-Brexit trade deal between the U.K. & E.U. continued to weigh on the Sterling. With a lack of progress in trade deal talks, investors were concerned about the British economy’s future, and hence the pair GBP/USD dropped.

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.9000 106.1100 106.3700
105.6400 106.5800
105.4300 106.8400

 GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading bearish at 1.3308 level, set to test the support level of 1.3168 level. The Cable has already violated an upward trendline at 1.3375 level, which is already violated. On the lower side, the GBP/USD pair may drop further below 1.3358 until the 1.3263 level. The MACD is also supporting selling bias; therefore, we will be looking for selling trades below the 1.3355 level. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.955 after placing a high of 106.150 and a low of 105.589. The USD/JPY pair moved sideways on Tuesday but ended its day with posting gains as the selling pressure against the U.S. dollar was faded away after the release of ISM Manufacturing data and some fresh comments from Fed Governor. 

However, the fading risk sentiment kept the gains in the USD/JPY pair checked after the coronavirus cases started to rise globally. The worldwide toll of cases reached 25 million with the United States on top with 6 million cases on Wednesday. India reported its biggest single-day surge in coronavirus cases of 78,761 on the weekend, while Spain reported a daily toll of more than 8000. After the U.S., Brazil, and India, now Russia has also entered the country with more than 1 million coronavirus cases. Besides, the Scottish government announced restrictions on people traveling from Greece to Scotland due to developing coronavirus cases.

The increasing number of COVID-19 cases decreased the risk appetite and helped safe-haven Japanese Yen to gain traction that weighed on the USD/JPY pair and limit the additional gains in the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday. Moreover, the renewed US-China tensions after Beijing’s new law to impose restrictions on tech export. China forced a ban on the export of tech companies that will require government approval, which will take 30 days approx. 

The move came in against the order of Donald Trump in which he gave 90 days to the TikTok app for sale or transfer of its rights to the U.S. The tensions also supported the Japanese Yen and capped further upside in the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3288 1.3346 1.3409
1.3225 1.3467
1.3167 1.3530

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY currency pair is trading at 106.077with an immediate resistance level of 106.085 level. Bullish crossover of 106.085 level may drive further buying until the next resistance level of 106.570. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair may find support at 105.800 and 105.500 levels. Let’s consider buying over 106.100 level as the MACD and RSI also suggest the same. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Options

FX Options Market Combined Volume Expiries for 3rd September 2020

Thank you for visiting the Forex Academy FX Options market combined volume expiries section. Each day, where available, we will bring you notable maturities in FX Options of amounts of $100 million-plus, and where these large combined maturities at specified currency exchange rates often have a magnetic effect on price action, especially in the hours leading to their maturities, which happens daily at 10.00 AM Eastern time. This is because the big institutional players hedge their positions accordingly. Each option expiry should be considered ‘in-play’ with a good chance of a strike if labelled in red, still in play and a possible strike if labelled in orange and ‘out of play’ and an unlikely strike if labelled in blue, with regard to the likelihood of price action meeting the strike price at maturity.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………

FX option expiries for Sept 3 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.

– EUR/USD: EUR amounts

  • 1.1830 513m

EURUSD is oversold but remains in a bear channel. Potential for a pullback. Eurozone and US data will be important later.

– USD/JPY: USD amounts

  • 105.55 513m
  • 107.00 505m

USDJPY pair is flattening out at an area of resistance. Potential for a move lower. US data out later will be important for the pair’s next move, but the two options look to be out of play

………………………………………………………………………………….

As you can see on the preferred 1-hour chart(s), we have also plotted the expiration levels at the various exchange rate maturities and we have also labelled in red, orange and blue.  Therefore, if you see option expiry exchange rates labelled in red these should be considered in-play, because we believe there is a greater chance of the expiry maturing at these levels based on technical analysis at the time of writing. There is still a lesser possibility of a strike if they are in orange and so these are ‘in-play’ too. However, if we have labelled them in blue, they should be considered ‘not in-play’ and therefore price action would be unlikely to reach these levels, which are often referred to as Strikes, at the time of the 10 AM New York cut.

Our technical analysis is based on exchange rates which may be several hours earlier in the day and may not reflect price action at the time of the maturities. Also, we have not factored in economic data releases or keynote speeches by policymakers, or potential market volatility leading up to the cut.

Although we have added some technical analysis, we suggest you take the levels and plot them onto your own trading charts and incorporate the information into your own trading methodology in order to use the information to your advantage. Remember the higher the amount, the larger the gravitational pull towards the exchange rate maturity at 10:00 AM Eastern time.

If you want to learn how forex option expiries affect price action in the spot FX market see our educational article by clicking here: https://bit.ly/2VR2Nji

DISCLAIMER: Please note that this information is for educational purposes. Also, the maturities will look more or less likely to become a strike at 10 AM NY time due to exchange rate fluctuations resulting in a different perspective with regard to technical analysis, and also due to upcoming economic data releases for the associated pairs.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Sept 3 – DeFi Flippening: Unifi’s Volume Topples Coinbase

The crypto sector had quite a bad day as almost every single cryptocurrency ended up in the red. Bitcoin is currently trading for $11,376, which represents a decrease of 4.26% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 6.82% on the day, while XRP lost 9.33%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

When taking a look at the top100 cryptocurrencies, Kusama gained 24.25% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. UMA (13.51%) and JUST (9.08%) also did great. On the other hand, the Ampleforth lost 26.14%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by OMG Network’s loss of 15.44% and Aragon’s drop of 15.44%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has gone up slightly, with its value is currently at 58.62%, represents a 0.48% difference to the upside when compared to when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has decreased significantly over the course of the day. Its current value is $375.41 billion, which represents a decrease of $15.64 billion when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s push towards the upside yesterday culminated by the cryptocurrency price reaching the $12,000 mark before triggering a bear push. The largest crypto by market cap couldn’t keep its price above the level, which triggered massive bearish volume that brought the price down as low as $11,150. Bitcoin is currently consolidating right below $11,460, which it is testing and trying to get past. However, this level has proven to be a strong resistance point at the moment.

Traders should pay attention to Bitcoin’s price movement around $11,460.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:
  • Price is below its 50-period and 21-period EMA
  • Price is just above its lower band
  • RSI is stable (38.13)
  • Volume is coming back to normal after a massive spike
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $11,630                                1: $11,460

2: $12,015                                2: $11,090

3: $12,330                                 3: $10,855

Ethereum

Ethereum had a similar day to Bitcoin, with its price plummeting and reaching as low as $418 after failing to break $496 to the upside. The second-largest crypto by market cap is currently near the $445 level, which is resisting any current pushes towards the upside that Ethereum makes at the moment.

With all this being said, Ethereum is still looking extremely bullish as DeFi’s volume and the number of users is reaching its all-time highs. Traders should look for a break from the $445 level.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:
  • The price is at its 21-period and below 50-period EMA
  • The price is just below the middle band
  • RSI is neutral (52.47)
  • Volume is descending (from extremely high)
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $445                                     1: $415

2: $496                                     2: $400

                                                  3: $360

Ripple

XRP was no exception when it comes to today’s price movement. The third-largest crypto by market cap crashed, at one point reaching sub-$0.266 levels. However, the price recovered, and XRP is currently consolidating at the $0.272 level. However, unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, which seem ready to test its resistance levels, XRP’s low volume as well as price position signal that there is almost no chance it will move towards the upside on its own.

Traders should look at XRP’s next move, which will be triggered by a volume spike.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:
  • The price is below its 21-period and 50-period EMA
  • Price is just above its lower band
  • RSI is stable and leaning towards the oversold area (39.55)
  • Volume is slightly below average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.285                                   1: $0.266 

2: $0.31                                     2: $0.2454

3: $0.32

 

Categories
Forex Videos

Forex Options Part 9 – Buying Naked Options!

Forex Options IX – Buying Naked Options

Buying naked options means the purchase of just calls or puts of the same strike and expiration date, with no ownership of the underlying asset, nor other simultaneous purchases of a different call ( or put).
Buying a naked option is a market-timing strategy. The options trader considers that, at the current price, the asset is overvalued or undervalued, and, also, there are signs of a market reversal.

The main factors to consider are:

There are technical reasons to believe in a large movement soon! Actual low implied volatility! Good Delta and time remaining to expiration so time decay will be minimal.

The main errors novice options traders do when buying naked options are:

Only consider market timing to make a trade.
Buying out of the money options because they are cheap. Buying options with no regard to the current implied volatility. And if they are expensive, switching to an even more out of the money strike. Buying options with short expiries because they are cheaper.

The threats

Poor timing is the main threat. Buying a call followed by a drop in price will swiftly devalue the option. Therefore, to buy options, it is imperative to have a fairly precise timing signal.
Also, time decay will hurt the value of the option if the underlying security fails to make the expected movement, which will cause a drop in volatility and a decrease in the premium. This effect increases if the time to expiration is short.

The following rules will maximize the odds in our favor:

Buy naked options only if your timing method has proven accurate
Buy calls with Delta over 50 or puts with Delta below -50 to improve the chances.
Buy calls near support, buy puts near resistance, especially on non-trend or mean-reverting markets. Lower volatility is a plus, although not too critical if the action is short-term
At least 30 days to expiration to minimize time decay.

The key elements to make a profit are two:
  • A reliable indicator or pattern that consistently predicts a large movement
  • Avoiding being hurt by time decay and drops in volatility.

A possible use of this strategy is to catch tops and bottoms. Options will limit the risk at the premium paid by the option. With enough time to expiration, the timing required to succeed does not need to be as accurate as with the underlying instrument. The risk is limited without the need for stop-loss orders, which on many occasions, get taken, and then the market reverses.


The risk/reward profile of a Call

The risk-reward profile of a naked call has already been shown, and it shows the characteristic stick profile with limited risk and unlimited reward. The intrinsic value line shows the values at expiration, but, since the before expiry, the option has a time value. The real market value at a set date before expiration draws a curve similar to the red line shown in the image. The shorter the time to expiry, the closer this line will be to its intrinsic value, since time value decay, as we already know.

Similarly, the risk/reward profile of a Put shows a stick-like pattern; only this time, the rewards come from prices under the strike price. As it happens in Calls, the red line in the image shows a likely value line of a Put before expiry, that would get closer and closer to the intrinsic line as the time approaches the expiry date.

Categories
Forex Videos

Forex Options Part 8 – Market Overview of Option Strategies!

Forex Options VIII – Market Overview of Option Strategies

In the previous videos, we have discovered the basics of options and the main topics that need to be mastered to trade them, such as Deltas, Volatility, Time to expiration, risk profiles, and market timing.
In this video, we will sketch the main strategies using options, with one goal in mind: to simplify the decision process.

Elements to success
There are two elements to consider when trading options: Volatility and price direction. A trader should consider if he wants to seek a directional strategy or a neutral one. After deciding that whether bullish, bearish, or neutral, the trader must look at the current and future implied volatility to decide which is best: to buy or write options.

The strategy matrix

These strategies will be covered in the following video presentations, and our critical variables of volatility and market direction will play the primary role in the decision-making process. The process will always be the same: you should decide first if you’re bullish, neutral, or bearish, and then assess the volatility.
To help in the decision making, it could be handy to have:

A chart with the price action of the underlying instrument, to help us visualize the situation of the market action

An implied volatility graph of the option in question, to assess whether it is at a low or high point


Source: cmegroup

The options chain with prices of the asset, to help us see the proximity to the spot price and also the expirations.

Source: traderji.com
A risk profile graph. That kind of graph is available in the majority of the option-trading tools. A risk profile helps not only assess the potential profits but also visualize the worst-case scenario.

Source: gfmi.com

Position Management:
To option traders, the most challenging decision is to exit. Thus, besides knowing when to use the strategy and the right moment to enter a trade, it is essential to understand when to exit for a profit and cut losses.

The strategies we will cover in the coming videos are

Buying a naked option
Buying a backspread
Buying calendar spreads
Buying Straddles

Selling a Naked put
Selling a vertical spread
Butterfly spread

Dental neutral strategies
Adjustments to increase profits

Categories
Forex Assets

Analyzing The CAD/DKK Forex Exotic Currency Pair

Understanding CADDKK

CADDKK is an exotic currency pair where CAD is the major currency Canada and DKK is the currency of Denmark. In this currency pair, CAD is the first currency, and DKK is the quote currency.

The price of CADDKK determines the value of DKK that is equivalent to one CAD. We can term it as 1 CAD per X amount of DKK. For example, if the CADDKK pair’s value is at 4.7712, we need almost 4.7712 DKK to buy one CAD.

CADDKK Specification

Spread

When we subtract the Bid price and the Ask price, we will find the Spread. Spread is a trading cost that is controlled by the broker. Therefore, traders don’t have to do anything with this. This value changes with the change in execution.

Spread on ECN: 19 pips | Spread on STP: 24 pips

Fees

Trading fees in the forex market is the cost that the broker takes from traders. It is automatically deducted from traders’ trading account. Note that a few pips charges on ECN accounts but there is no fee on STP.

Slippage

Spread is the difference between the execution level and the open price level when it is an excessive level of volatility in the price. Market volatility and execution speed of your broker mainly contributes to the degree of slippage.

Trading Range in CADDKK

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

CADDKK Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

With the volatility, values provide an indication of how the cost varies with the change of volatility. We got the ratio between the cost and volatility and converted into percentages.

ECN Model Account 

Spread = 19 | Slippage = 5 | Trading fee = 8

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee

= 19 + 5 + 8

Total cost = 32

STP Model Account

Spread = 19 | Slippage = 5 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee

= 19 + 5 + 0

Total cost = 24

The Ideal way to trade the CADDKK

The CADDK is an exotic currency pair with stable volatility in the price. Therefore, it may provide a decent movement even in intraday trading. The percentage of values did not move above 64%. Therefore, we can say that that CADDKK is nicely tradeable even if in the lower timeframe. However, the trading risk is an essential factor that most of the traders should consider while making a trading decision.

Overall all traders should trade when the cost is at an average value. The increase in volatility is risky for the possibility of unwanted stop loss hit, while the decrease in volatility might make trading worthless. To reduce the cost, furthermore, you can place either a ‘limit’ or ‘stop’ order. In this case, there will be no slippage, and in this example, our total cost will be reduced by five pips.

STP Model Account (Using Limit Orders)

Spread = 19 | Slippage = 0 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee

= 19 + 0 + 0

Total cost = 19

Categories
Forex Fundamental Analysis

What Should You Know About Industrial Production MoM Forex Indicator?

Introduction

Before the Service sector dominated the Industrial sector as a significant contributor to the GDP, it was the industrial production alone that was seen as a measure of economic growth. It still holds for many developing economies. Economies like China, Japan, India, etc. all had significant industrial revolutions that helped their countries to improve their economy. The industrial sector still contributes a considerable percentage to the economy and employs millions of people.

What is Industrial Production MoM?

Industrial Production: It refers to the total output produced by the industrial sector. Here the industrial sector consists of the mining, manufacturing, electric, and gas utility sectors. It is like a mini-GDP report for the industrial sector. By definition, it must be apparent that it primarily deals with tangible commodities or physical goods. On the other hand, The Service sector comprises of non-tangible entities largely.

The Industrial Production Index goes as back as 1919 if required, and is published by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in the United States. The extended time-frame availability of data makes it a more robust, reliable economic indicator as more data points are available relative to other sectors.

The data is aggregated by combining data in different units. Some of the data may be in dollar terms, some may be in tonnes (e.g., the weight of barrels of oils and steel), or inferred by the number of hours worked. The logged-in hours are obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is expressed as a percentage of real output relative to a base period. The base year is currently 2012. The methodology incorporated to calculate the Industrial Production is the Fisher Ideal Index, where the contribution of each sector is weighted (the higher the contribution, the higher is the weightage in the index calculation).

Industrial Production Indices comes in YoY and MoM versions comparing production size with the previous year and month, respectively. The YoY figures deem more use to analysts and government officials to analyze the performance of the industrial sector for this financial year. The MoM (Month over Month) figures are useful for closely monitoring for the expected uptrends or downtrends during business cycles. The MoM figures are more useful for investors in this regard.

How can the Industrial Production MoM numbers be used for analysis?

We have to understand the significance of this statistic historically. Before the development of the service sector, i.e., before the era of computers and the internet, the most industrialized countries were the most advanced economies. Countries that had many factories manufacturing tons of commodities were seen as highly advanced economies back in the day. Hence, it is no surprise that at such times the Industrial Production figures were a direct measure for the economy’s economic activity and growth.

The general trend in economic growth has been that underdeveloped economies have the primary sector as a significant contributor to the GDP. The developing economies have the secondary sector (industrial sector) as the primary contributor to the GDP, while the developed economies have the tertiary (or service) sector.

For the United States, the Industrial Sector now contributes less than 20% to the overall GDP, while more than 80% comes from the Service sector itself. Although it may sound like only 20%, it is only in comparison, but individually the industrial sector is in itself huge and employs millions of people. 15-20% is still a significant contribution, and that is the reason why it is still being published as well as analyzed by investors, traders, analysts frequently to infer significant economic conclusions.

With machine automation, the advancement of technologies, and the introduction of artificial intelligence, many traditional jobs in the industrial sector are getting replaced. This trend is likely to continue further down the line. As of now, the Industrial Production figures bear some relevance, though it is only a matter of time that its contribution further falls and is overlooked by investors and analysts.

(Image Credit: St. Louis FRED)

The industrial sector is more sensitive to business cycles as well as economic shocks, as evident from the historical plot. The current COVID-19 pandemic has had a more significant impact on the industrial sector than the service sector due to the nature of business.

Impact on Currency

Since the Industrial Production figures only account for a few sectors of the economy, hence it is not a macroeconomic indicator encompassing all industries into its statistics. For this reason, the relative significance of this indicator in the currency markets is less. Whereas, investors looking to invest in stocks of companies belonging to the Industrial sector use Industrial Production MoM figures to make investment decisions. Overall, it is a low-impact coincident indicator that bears no significant volatility in the currency markets but has a significant influence on the equity markets.

Economic Reports

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System publishes reports of the Industrial Production statistics as part of its monthly “G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization” report on its official website. It is released around the 15th of the month for the previous month. It is a preliminary estimate and is annotated with a superscript ‘p’ in the tables. It is subject to revision in the subsequent five months as more data becomes available. The report details both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted versions for our convenience.

Sources of Industrial Production MoM

The Federal Reserve publishes Industrial Production MoM reports on its official website. The same statistics are available with more tools for analysis on the St. Louis FRED website. Similar Industrial Production MoM statistics for most countries is available on the Trading Economics website.

How the Monthly Industrial Production Data Release Affects The Price Charts

In the US, the monthly industrial production data is released by the Federal Reserve about 16 days after the month ends. It measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. The most recent data was released on August 14, 2020, at 9.15 AM ET and can be accessed at Investing.com here. An in-depth review of the industrial production data release can be accessed at the Federal Reserve website.

The screengrab below is of the monthly industrial production from Investing.com.

As can be seen, the industrial production data is expected to have a low impact on the USD upon its release.

The screenshot below represents the most recent changes in the monthly industrial production in the US. In July 2020, the US industrial production increased by 3% down from a 5.7% increase in June. This change was in line with analysts’ expectations of a 3% change. Therefore, this is expected to be positive for the USD.

Now, let’s see how this release made an impact on the Forex price charts.

EUR/USD: Before the Monthly Industrial Production Data Release 
on August 14, 2020, Just Before 9.15 AM ET

Before the data release, the EUR/USD pair was trading in a renewed uptrend with the 15-minute candles forming above a steadily rising 20-period Moving Average. This pattern indicates that the USD was weakening against the EUR.

EUR/USD: After the Monthly Industrial Production Data Release 
on August 14, 2020, at 9.15 AM ET

As expected, the pair formed a 15-minute bearish candle after the data release indicating a  momentary strength in the USD. The data was, however, was not significant enough to bring forth a change in the trading pattern. The pair continued trading in the earlier observed uptrend with the 20-period Moving Average steadily rising.

Now let’s see how this news release impacted other major currency pairs.

NZD/USD: Before the Monthly Industrial Production Data Release 
on August 14, 2020, Just Before 9.15 AM ET

Similar to the trend observed with the EUR/USD pair, the NZD/USD was trading in an uptrend before the data release. The 20-period Moving Average can be seen to be steadily rising in the above 15-minute chart.

NZD/USD: After the Monthly Industrial Production Data Release 
on August 14, 2020, at 9.15 AM ET

After the data release, the pair formed a 15-minute bearish candle. As observed with the EUR/USD pair, NZD/USD continued trading in the earlier observed uptrend with the 20-period Moving Average steeply rising.

AUD/USD: Before the Monthly Industrial Production Data Release 
on August 14, 2020, Just Before 9.15 AM ET

AUD/USD: After the Monthly Industrial Production Data Release 
on August 14, 2020, at 9.15 AM ET

Before the data release, the AUD/USD pair was trading in a similar uptrend pattern as the EUR/USD and NZD/USD pairs. After the data release, the pair formed a 15-minute bearish candle and subsequently continued trading in the earlier observed uptrend similar to the other pairs.

Bottom Line

The monthly US industrial production data an important leading indicator of the economy’s health. From this analysis, however, while the data release affects the USD, it is not significant enough to cause a shift in the prevailing market trend.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Sept 2 – Ethereum Pushing Towards $500; Decentralized Exchanges Volume Surges

While the top cryptocurrencies had quite a slow day, the DeFi market kept going up. Bitcoin is currently trading for $11,890, which represents an increase of 2.37% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 7.57% on the day, while XRP gained 6.91%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

When taking a look at top100 cryptocurrencies, DFI.Money gained 111.02% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. SushiSwap (35.54%) and Flexacoin (23.70%) also did great. On the other hand, the bZx Protocol lost 16.28%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by Aragon’s loss of 10.47% and Kusama’s drop of 9.44%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has gone down slightly, with its value is currently at 58.14%, represents a 0.26% difference to the downside when compared to when we last reported.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto sector capitalization has increased significantly over the course of the day. Its current value is $391.05 billion, which represents an increase of $14.67 billion when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

After managing to fend off the bears and establish its presence above $11,630 yesterday, Bitcoin started moving towards the upside. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap pushed towards the upside and quickly reached the $12,000 mark. However, the cryptocurrency did not stay above it for long and fell under it yet again. Bitcoin is now on a path towards the downside.

Traders should pay attention to how Bitcoin’s price reacts to its moving averages, as well as to $11,630.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:
  • Price is above its 50-period and 21-period EMA
  • Price is at its middle band
  • RSI is neutral (52.80)
  • Volume is slightly increased
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $11,630                                1: $11,460

2: $12,015                                2: $11,090

3: $12,330                                 3: $10,855

Ethereum

Ethereum had another extremely bullish day, where its parabolic rise continued. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap surged towards the upside and passed $445 with ease, only to be stopped a little under $490. Ethereum is now consolidating slightly below this level.

Ethereum’s parabolic price rise is attributed to a surge of interest in DeFi projects, and all they have to offer.

Ethereum traders should pay attention to DeFi announcements, as well as to how ETH will consolidate.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:
  • The price is above its 21-period and 50-period EMA
  • The price is just below the upper band
  • RSI is in the overbought territory (73.71)
  • Volume is descending (from extremely high)
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $445                                     1: $415

2: $496                                     2: $400

                                                  3: $360

Ripple

XRP, boosted by the other cryptos increasing in price, pushed towards the upside itself. The third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap managed to get past the $0.285 resistance level, and then quickly (and successfully) retested it. The move towards the upside got stopped at $0.305, and XRP is now consolidating slightly under it.

While XRP’s move seems like it ran out of steam, its volume is still relatively high, which may indicate a possibility of further volatility.

Traders should look at XRP’s volume spikes and check for any signs of its next move’s direction.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:
  • The price is above its 21-period and 50-period EMA
  • Price is just under its upper band
  • RSI is stable and extremely close to being overbought (63.57)
  • Volume is slightly above average
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.31                                     1: $0.285 

2: $0.32                                     2: $0.266

3: $0.3328                                3:$0.2454

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, September 02 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on ADP Non-Farm Employment! 

On the news front, the eyes will be on the U.S. ADP Non-farm payroll figures, which may drive price action during the New York session today. Besides, the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories will remain in highlights as economists expect a slight draw in U.S. oil stocks that may drive buying in WTI crude oil.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.19117 after placing a high of 1.20113 and a low of 1.19010. On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rose above 1.2000 level in earlier trading session but failed to keep the level and dropped in the late session to post losses. The gains in the first half of the day were associated with the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness; however, in the late session, the losses were associated with the dollar strength triggered by better than expected ISM Manufacturing PMI.

The upward momentum that took the pair above 1.200 level on Tuesday was derived from the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness followed by the new policy shift from Federal Reserve. The improved risk sentiment due to vaccine hopes also helped the pair reach its highest since May 2018. However, the gains were limited as the pair started to fell in the second half of the day.

The losses in the EUR/USD pair were also encouraged by the fading market risk sentiment due to increased coronavirus cases worldwide. On Wednesday, the number of cases reached 6 million in the U.S., while India reported the biggest single-day jump of 78,761 in coronavirus cases over the weekend, whereas the daily case count reached 8000 in Spain. Meanwhile, after the U.S., Brazil, and India, now Russia also became the fourth country to exceed 1 million cases of COVID-19.

Furthermore, to prevent the second wave of coronavirus, the Scottish government announced new restrictions on travelers from Greece to Scotland; quarantine restrictions will be imposed on people traveling from Greece to Scotland due to emerging coronavirus cases. These tensions weighed on market risk sentiment and added in the further losses of EUR/USD on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1870 1.1941 1.1981
1.1829 1.2053
1.1758 1.2093

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair fell to trade at 1.1901 level, having immediate support at 1.1891 level, which is extended by double bottom level. Violation of 1.1891 level may extend selling until 1.1845 support. On the higher side, the resistance stays at 1.1935 and 1.1978 level for EUR/USD. Price action will highly depend upon the U.S. Advance NFP figures today.


GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.33830 after placing a high of 1.34820 and a low of 1.33561. Overall the movement of GBP/USD remained flat yet bullish throughout the day. In the first half of the day, the pair rose and extended its gains to reach its highest since December 2019, near 1.3500 level on the back of selling bias surrounding the U.S. dollar. However, most of its early gains were lost in the second half of the day after the release of ISM Manufacturing PMI data on Tuesday.

In the early trading session, the equity markets moved in a higher direction after releasing China’s manufacturing PMI data from Caixin that showed an expansion in the industry by 53.1 against the estimated 52.6. It showed that the world’s second-largest economy was improving and raised the chances for quick economic recovery.

The improvement in China’s economy when the U.S. is suffering against the coronavirus pandemic increased the risk sentiment and weighed on the U.S. dollar that pushed the risk-sensitive currency pair GBP/USD higher on board. However, USD and risk appetite’s selling bias did not remain in the market for long and started to fade in the late session as the macroeconomic data from both the U.K. & U.S. came in against GBP/USD pair on Tuesday.

At 13:30 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI from the U.K. in August dropped to 55.2 from the forecasted 55.3 and weighed on GBP. The M4 Money Supply in July from Britain also dropped to 0.9% from the expected 1.2% and weighed on the Sterling. The Mortgage Approvals, however, rose to 66K against the estimated 55K and supported GBP. The Net Lending to Individuals remained flat with the expectations of 3.9B. Most data from Great Britain was against British Pound, and hence, the GBP/USD pair suffered and lost some of its gains on the day.

On the other hand, from the U.S. side, the highly awaited ISM Manufacturing PMI was released at 19:00 GMT, which exceeded the expectations of 54.6 and came in as 56.0 and supported the U.S. dollar. The strong U.S. dollar added weight on the GBP/USD pair that lost most of its daily gains but still ended its day with a slightly bullish trend.

Apart from macroeconomic data, the progress towards Brexit deal also drove the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday when PM Boris Johnson’s spokesman said that Britain wanted to agree simpler parts of the future relationship with the E.U. first to create momentum in the negotiations. While the E.U. has been insisting on reaching a consensus on difficult areas in talks such as E.U. state aid before any other negotiation area, even legal texts.

However, the next round of talks is scheduled for next week, but before that, another meeting was scheduled for Tuesday ahead of formal negotiation resumption next Monday. Michel Barnier went to London for informal talks with his U.K. counterpart, David Frost, as the transition period is near to end. It is yet to see how the informal talks went between both parties and discussed in the next round of formal meetings. Traders are cautiously waiting for some direction towards Brexit-deal.

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.6400 105.9000 106.2100
105.3300 106.4700
105.0700 106.7800

 GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading bearish at 1.3358 level, set to test the support level of 1.3358 level. The Cable has already violated an upward trendline at 1.3375 level, which is already violated. On the lower side, the GBP/USD pair may drop further below 1.3358 until the 1.3263 level. The MACD is also supporting selling bias; therefore, we will be looking for selling trades below the 1.3355 level. Lets brace for ADP NFP figures for better price action. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.955 after placing a high of 106.150 and a low of 105.589. The USD/JPY pair moved sideways on Tuesday but ended its day with posting gains as the selling pressure against the U.S. dollar was faded away after the release of ISM Manufacturing data and some fresh comments from Fed Governor. 

However, the fading risk sentiment kept the gains in the USD/JPY pair checked after the coronavirus cases started to rise globally. The worldwide toll of cases reached 25 million with the United States on top with 6 million cases on Wednesday. India reported its biggest single-day surge in coronavirus cases of 78,761 on the weekend, while Spain reported a daily toll of more than 8000. After the U.S., Brazil, and India, now Russia has also entered the country with more than 1 million coronavirus cases. Besides, the Scottish government announced restrictions on people traveling from Greece to Scotland due to developing coronavirus cases.

The increasing number of COVID-19 cases decreased the risk appetite and helped safe-haven Japanese Yen to gain traction that weighed on the USD/JPY pair and limit the additional gains in the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday. Moreover, the renewed US-China tensions after Beijing’s new law to impose restrictions on tech export. China forced a ban on the export of tech companies that will require government approval, which will take 30 days approx. The move came in against the order of Donald Trump in which he gave 90 days to the TikTok app for sale or transfer of its rights to the U.S. The tensions also supported the Japanese Yen and capped further upside in the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3330 1.3407 1.3459
1.3279 1.3535
1.3202 1.3587

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY currency pair is trading at 106.077with an immediate resistance level of 106.085 level. Bullish crossover of 106.085 level may drive further buying until the next resistance level of 106.570. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair may find support at 105.800 and 105.500 levels. Let’s consider buying over 106.100 level as the MACD and RSI also suggest the same. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Options

FX Options Market Combined Volume Expiries for 2nd September 2020

Thank you for visiting the Forex Academy FX Options market combined volume expiries section. Each day, where available, we will bring you notable maturities in FX Options of amounts of $100 million-plus, and where these large combined maturities at specified currency exchange rates often have a magnetic effect on price action, especially in the hours leading to their maturities, which happens daily at 10.00 AM Eastern time. This is because the big institutional players hedge their positions accordingly. Each option expiry should be considered ‘in-play’ with a good chance of a strike if labelled in red, still in play and a possible strike if labelled in orange and ‘out of play’ and an unlikely strike if labelled in blue, with regard to the likelihood of price action meeting the strike price at maturity.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………

FX option expiries for Sept 2 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.

– EUR/USD: EUR amounts

  • 1.1875 929m

EURUSD pair is lower on US dollar strength. US data will be key. The only option is in play.

– USD/JPY: USD amounts

  • 105.55 829m
  • 105.75 465m
  • 106.00 581m
  • 106.50 1.1bn

USDJPY has found resistance at the key 106.00 level.

– USD/CAD: USD amounts

  • 1.3225 1.1bn

USDCAD found major support at 1.3000 but the option is out of play.

– NZD/USD: NZD amounts

  • 0.6750 211m

NZDUSD has found resistance and is overbought. It will likely follow the US dollar today. Look out for US data later to confirm this.

………………………………………………………………………………….

As you can see on the preferred 1-hour chart(s), we have also plotted the expiration levels at the various exchange rate maturities and we have also labelled in red, orange and blue.  Therefore, if you see option expiry exchange rates labelled in red these should be considered in-play, because we believe there is a greater chance of the expiry maturing at these levels based on technical analysis at the time of writing. There is still a lesser possibility of a strike if they are in orange and so these are ‘in-play’ too. However, if we have labelled them in blue, they should be considered ‘not in-play’ and therefore price action would be unlikely to reach these levels, which are often referred to as Strikes, at the time of the 10 AM New York cut.

Our technical analysis is based on exchange rates which may be several hours earlier in the day and may not reflect price action at the time of the maturities. Also, we have not factored in economic data releases or keynote speeches by policymakers, or potential market volatility leading up to the cut.

Although we have added some technical analysis, we suggest you take the levels and plot them onto your own trading charts and incorporate the information into your own trading methodology in order to use the information to your advantage. Remember the higher the amount, the larger the gravitational pull towards the exchange rate maturity at 10:00 AM Eastern time.

If you want to learn how forex option expiries affect price action in the spot FX market see our educational article by clicking here: https://bit.ly/2VR2Nji

DISCLAIMER: Please note that this information is for educational purposes. Also, the maturities will look more or less likely to become a strike at 10 AM NY time due to exchange rate fluctuations resulting in a different perspective with regard to technical analysis, and also due to upcoming economic data releases for the associated pairs.

Categories
Forex System Design

Introduction to Walk-Forward Analysis – Part 1

Introduction

Once completed the optimization process of a trading system, the developer could develop an advanced strategy optimization method, the walk-forward analysis. In this educational article, we will introduce the basic concepts of this methodology.

What is Walk-Forward Analysis?

The Walk-Forward Analysis (WFA) is an advanced method for testing, validating, and optimizing a trading strategy, by measuring its performance using out-of-sample results. The WFA attempts to achieve the three objectives identified as follows.

  1. Determine if the trading strategy continues being profitable using unseen or out-of-sample price history.
  2. Find out the optimal values of the parameters to be used in real-time trading.
  3. Delimit the optimization window size and the period at which the system should be reoptimized.

Measuring the Robustness of a Trading System

A robust trading system is profitable, even when the actual market conditions change. These profits tend to be consistent, with the results obtained in the historical simulation stage. In other words, a walk-forward analysis allows the system’s developer to determine if the trading strategy can produce real-time profits.

The system’s developer is able to compute the robustness of a trading strategy using a statistical criterion called Walk-Forward Efficiency (WFE) ratio, which measures the current optimization process’s quality.

The WFE ratio is computed by the out-of-sample annualized rates of return divided by the in-sample returns. A robust trading strategy should achieve reliable performance, both in-sample and out-of-sample data. A 100% ratio would indicate that the out-of-sample figures match exactly the returns obtained with the backtests. That would indicate the system is sound and reliable.  Pardo, in his book The Evaluation and Optimization of Trading Strategies, comments that “robust trading strategies have WFEs greater than 50 or 60 percent and in the case of extremely robust strategies, even higher.”  A WFE ratio below 50% would indicate poor performance. Finally, ratios over 100% are suspicious, and the system should be analyzed to discover the reason for this behavior.

WFA and Overfitting

Overfitting is a condition resulting from an excessive readjustment of the strategy’s parameters aimed at artificially improve its performance. An overfitted strategy is likely to lose money in real-time trading, even when a historical simulation would present terrific gains.

By its nature, a walk-forward analysis is a cure for overfitting abuse. This edge comes from the fact that the WFA evaluates the strategy’s performance using data not belonging to the optimization process.

By using WFA, the developer is certain about the robustness of a trading strategy. In other words, a not too robust trading strategy would not pass a walk-forward analysis.

Considering that a large number of samples increase the statistical validity and confidence, it is unlikely that an unprofitable trading strategy would make significant profits using a large number of samples. Consequently, a poor trading strategy delivering gains could be the product of chance.

Conclusions

The Walk-Forward Analysis (WFA) is a powerful tool for testing, validating, and measure the quality of a trading strategy, which is characterized by the use of out-of-sample data to evaluate its performance. In this educational article, we have presented the advantages of using WFA to evaluate the strategy’s robustness and how WFA can help the developer avoid overfitting, increasing confidence through an objective statistical measure.

In the next educational post, we will continue reviewing the benefits of using the walk-forward analysis and setting up the walk-forward analysis.

Suggested Readings

  • Jaekle, U., Tomasini, E.; Trading Systems: A New Approach to System Development and Portfolio Optimisation; Harriman House Ltd.; 1st Edition (2009).
  • Pardo, R.; The Evaluation and Optimization of Trading Strategies; John Wiley & Sons; 2nd Edition (2008).
Categories
Forex Options

FX Options Market Combined Volume Expiries for 1st September 2020

Thank you for visiting the Forex Academy FX Options market combined volume expiries section. Each day, where available, we will bring you notable maturities in FX Options of amounts of $100 million-plus, and where these large combined maturities at specified currency exchange rates often have a magnetic effect on price action, especially in the hours leading to their maturities, which happens daily at 10.00 AM Eastern time. This is because the big institutional players hedge their positions accordingly. Each option expiry should be considered ‘in-play’ with a good chance of a strike if labelled in red, still in play and a possible strike if labelled in orange and ‘out of play’ and an unlikely strike if labelled in blue, with regard to the likelihood of price action meeting the strike price at maturity.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………

FX option expiries for Sept 1 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.

– EUR/USD: EUR amounts

  • 1.1895 571m
  • 1.1900 569m
  • 1.1950 981m
  • 1.2000 834m

EURUSD fell short of the 1.20 by a few pips at the first test. Profit-taking pulling the pair back currently. Eurozone and US data out later.

– GBP/USD: GBP amounts

  • 1.3310 280m

GBPUSD holding ground above 1.34 but is overbought as the US dollar onslaught continues. Data from both economies up later and may affect the direction. The option expiry is out of play.

– USD/JPY: USD amounts

  • 105.00 1.1bn
  • 105.50 600m
  • 106.00 846m
  • 106.60 511m
  • 106.75 460m

USDJPY currently manoeuvring between 105.00 and 106.00.

………………………………………………………………………………….

As you can see on the preferred 1-hour chart(s), we have also plotted the expiration levels at the various exchange rate maturities and we have also labelled in red, orange and blue.  Therefore, if you see option expiry exchange rates labelled in red these should be considered in-play, because we believe there is a greater chance of the expiry maturing at these levels based on technical analysis at the time of writing. There is still a lesser possibility of a strike if they are in orange and so these are ‘in-play’ too. However, if we have labelled them in blue, they should be considered ‘not in-play’ and therefore price action would be unlikely to reach these levels, which are often referred to as Strikes, at the time of the 10 AM New York cut.

Our technical analysis is based on exchange rates which may be several hours earlier in the day and may not reflect price action at the time of the maturities. Also, we have not factored in economic data releases or keynote speeches by policymakers, or potential market volatility leading up to the cut.

Although we have added some technical analysis, we suggest you take the levels and plot them onto your own trading charts and incorporate the information into your own trading methodology in order to use the information to your advantage. Remember the higher the amount, the larger the gravitational pull towards the exchange rate maturity at 10:00 AM Eastern time.

If you want to learn how forex option expiries affect price action in the spot FX market see our educational article by clicking here: https://bit.ly/2VR2Nji

DISCLAIMER: Please note that this information is for educational purposes. Also, the maturities will look more or less likely to become a strike at 10 AM NY time due to exchange rate fluctuations resulting in a different perspective with regard to technical analysis, and also due to upcoming economic data releases for the associated pairs.

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Sept 1 – Binance Crypto Card Expanding To The US; YFI Token Up 1,000,000% Since July

While the top cryptocurrencies had quite a slow day, the DeFi market kept going up. Bitcoin is currently trading for $11,630, which represents a decrease of 0.38% on the day. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 2.99% on the day, while XRP lost 0.59%.

 Daily Crypto Sector Heat Map

When taking a look at top100 cryptocurrencies, Sushi gained 110.98% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer. BitShares (72.48%) and Kusama (35.57%) also did great. On the other hand, DFI.Money lost 18.67%, making it the most prominent daily loser. It is followed by bZx Protocol’s loss of 13.96% and NXM’s drop of 9.34%.

Top 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bottom 10 24-hour Performers (Click to enlarge)

Bitcoin’s dominance level has gone down slightly, with its value is currently at 58.40%, represents a 0.84% difference to the downside when compared to our last report.

Daily Crypto Market Cap Chart

The crypto market cap has increased significantly over the course of the day. Its current value is $375.72 billion, which represents an increase of $3 billion when compared to our previous report.

_______________________________________________________________________

What happened in the past 24 hours?

_______________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

After a weekend of steady gains, Bitcoin spent the day trying to establish its presence above the newly-conquered $11,630 level. While the fight is still in progress, it seems that the largest cryptocurrency by market cap will stay above the level, thus turning it into support.

Traders should take a look at how Bitcoin handles its next resistance, which is at around $11,820.

BTC/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:
  • Price is above its 50-period EMA and 21-period EMA
  • Price is above its middle band
  • RSI is neutral but leaning towards overbought (57.26)
  • Volume is low
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $11,630                                1: $11,460

2: $12,015                                2: $11,090

3: $12,330                                 3: $10,855

Ethereum

Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum has had a great day. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap continued its rush towards the upside, fueled by the expansion of DeFi. The move towards the upside rekindled after ETH confirming its position above $415 and stopped (for now) at its next resistance level, which is sitting at $445. While Ethereum has a chance of breaking this level as well, it is unlikely that it will stay above it as the volume seems to be fading, while its RSI is in the overbought territory.

Ethereum traders should look for ETH’s pullback after the bullish move ends.

ETH/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical Factors:
  • Price is currently above its 21-period and 50-period EMA
  • Price is just below the upper band
  • RSI is in the overbought territory (74.23)
  • Volume is descending
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $445                                     1: $415

2: $496                                     2: $400

                                                 3: $360

Ripple

XRP’s move towards the upside ended abruptly as the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap failed to break the $0.285 resistance level. While it is still very close to it, XRP shows no signs of breaking the resistance any time soon, unless it gets external help in the form of BTC pushing the price of the whole crypto market.

On the other hand, XRP doesn’t show any signs of going down anytime soon, so we can expect some range-bound trading in the near future.

Traders should look for an opportunity within the range XRP is currently in.

XRP/USD 4-hour Chart

Technical factors:
  • The price is above its 21-period and 50-period EMA
  • Price is slightly above its middle band
  • RSI is stable and neutral (58.98)
  • Volume is low and relatively stable
Key levels to the upside          Key levels to the downside

1: $0.285                                   1: $0.266 

2: $0.31                                     2: $0.2454

3: $0.32                                    3:$0.235

 

Categories
Forex Assets

Analyzing The Costs Involved While Trading The CAD/NOK Exotic Pair

Introduction

CADNOK is a Forex currency pair, where CAD is the official currency of Canada, and NOK is the native currency of Norway. In this exotic pair, CAD is the base currency, and NOK is the quote currency.

Understanding CADNOK

This pair’s price determines the value of NOK, which is equivalent to one CAD. We can quote it as 1 CAD per X numbers of NOK. For example, if the CADNOK pair’s value is at 6.7135, it means we need almost 6.7135 NOK to buy one CAD.

CADNOK Specification

Spread

In forex trading, Spread indicates the difference between the Bid price and the Ask prices. Traders don’t have to do anything with this as it is deducted by the broker. This value changes with the type of execution model used for executing the trades. Below are the ECN and STP spread values of this currency pair.

Spread on ECN: 39 pips | Spread on STP: 44 pips

Fees

The trading fees that forex brokers take are similar to other financial markets. It is deducted from the traders’ accounts when they take a trade. Note that STP accounts do not take any charge, but a few pips are charged in ECN accounts.

Slippage

Slippage happens when a trader opens a trade at a price, but it opens at another price by expanding the Spread. The main reason to occur slippage is the market volatility and the broker’s execution speed.

Trading Range in CADNOK

The trading range is the representation of the minimum, average, and the maximum volatility of this pair on the 1H, 4H, 1D, 1W, and 1M timeframe. Using these values, we can assess our profit/loss margin of trade. Hence, this proves to be a helpful risk management tool for all types of traders.

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

CADNOK Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

If we look at the volatility values from the above table, we can see how the cost changes with the change in volatility. We have provided the ratio between the cost and the volatility values into percentages.

ECN Model Account 

Spread = 39 | Slippage = 5 | Trading fee = 8

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee

= 39 + 5 + 8

Total cost = 52

STP Model Account

Spread = 39 | Slippage = 5 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee

= 39 + 5 + 0

Total cost = 44

The Ideal way to trade the CADNOK

The CADNOK is an exotic currency pair that has enough liquidity. As a result, traders may find it easy to trade in this exotic currency pair. The percentage values from the above table did not move above 138%, which is an indication of less volatility. However, the Percentage of trading cost is lower in the higher timeframe.

Therefore, traders should be cautious to determine the price where trading is suitable. An increase in volatility is risky, while the decrease in volatility is less profitable. Therefore, the best time to trade in this pair is when the volatility remains at the average value.

Furthermore, another way to reduce the cost is to place a pending order as ‘limit’ and ‘stop’ instead of ‘market.’ In that case, the slippage will not be considered in the calculation of the total costs. So, the total cost will be reduced by five pips.

STP Account Using Limit Model Account

Spread = 39 | Slippage = 0 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Spread + Slippage + Trading Fee

= 39 + 0 + 0

Total cost = 39