Tag: Support and Resistance

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, September 22 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Fed Chair Powell Testifies!

The economic calendar is again busy with Federal Reserve events such as today, the Fed Chair Powell Testifies. Jerome Powell is expected to testify on the CARES Act before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington DC. Besides this, the eyes will be on the Existing Home Sales from the United States. Overall, the market is likely to exhibit corrections today.

The economic calendar is again busy with Federal Reserve events such as today, the Fed Chair Powell Testifies. Jerome Powell is expected to testify on the CARES Act before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington DC. Besides this, the eyes will be on the Existing Home Sales from the United States. Overall, the market is likely to exhibit corrections today.

The economic calendar is again busy with Federal Reserve events such as today, the Fed Chair Powell Testifies. Jerome Powell is expected to testify on the CARES Act before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington DC. Besides this, the eyes will be on the Existing Home Sales from the United States. Overall, the market is likely to exhibit corrections today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.7713 after placing a high of 1.18715 and a low of 1.17315. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair slumped on Monday amid the reclaimed safe-haven status by the U.S. dollar and the re-imposed lockdown measures to curb the spread on the virus in Europe.

The U.S. Dollar Index was up by 0.8% to 93.69 level on Monday, its highest level since August 13. This supported the greenback on its way to reclaiming its safe-haven status and pulled the EUR/USD pair on the downside.

According to the European health minister, the second wave of coronavirus in France, Austria, and the Netherlands could spike and affect the European countries and hold threats that Germany could also see infection spikes. 

The U.K. is also reporting new coronavirus cases and the Britain Chief Scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, said that there could be 50,000 new infections every day by mid-October if the virus continues at its current rate. The rising number of coronavirus cases from Europe weighed on prices of EUR/USD pair on Monday.

Furthermore, the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that Europe’s economic rebound was uncertain and uneven, and it required a careful assessment of incoming data, including the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic. On Monday, Lagarde said that the recovery strength was dependent on the future evolution of the pandemic and containment policies’ success. These remarks came in as the economists expect the ECB to expand its emergency 1.35T euros bond-buying program this year to revive inflation.

Germany’s Bundesbank also said that it expected the recovery in Europe’s largest economy to continue at a slower pace during the rest of the year. These concerning comments raised caution and stressed the local currency that ended up weighing on EUR/USD pair prices on Monday.

Meanwhile, the risk sentiment further deteriorated after the US-China tensions continue to expand along with the delayed U.S. stimulus measure that raised the safe-haven appeal. The U.S. dollar regained its safe-haven status and was up by 0.8% on Monday. This strong U.S. dollar added further pressure on EUR/USD prices.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1709     1.1851

1.1649     1.1933

1.1568     1.1993

Pivot Point: 1.1791

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The stronger U.S. dollar has also driven sharp selling in the EUR/USD pair as it trades at 1.1768 level today. The pair gains support over a double bottom pattern of 1.1736, and a bullish crossover of 1.1773 level may extend the buying trend until 1.1797 level. Bullish bias can remain strong today as most of the traders may do profit-taking in the EUR/USD pair. Let’s stay bullish over the 1.1728 level and bearish below the same level today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

Today in the Asian trading hours, the GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.28156 after placing a high of 1.29664 and a low of 1.27751. Overall the movement of the GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair extended its previous day’s losses on Monday and fell to its 5-days lowest level amid the broad-based U.S. dollar strength and rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.K., along with Brexit worries.

The rising signals drove the downward momentum in the Pound to U.S. dollar exchange rate that the U.K. government could send Britain into another lockdown. The rising concerns over Britain’s economy and the stalled Brexit process further weighed on the Sterling that dragged the GBP/USD prices on Monday.

The top science adviser of the U.K., Sir Patrick Vallance, said on Monday that U.K.’s coronavirus numbers could reach new 50,000 cases per day by mid-October. His warning was based on current trends that showed that the pandemic was doubling every seven days.

Valance said that 50,000 figure was a warning and not a prediction. In response to his warning, the fears that the U.K.’s economy could see another round of lockdown measures to control the spread of coronavirus raised and weighed on local currency. The weak British Pound added further pressure on the declining GBP/USD prices on Monday.

On the Brexit front, the former Prime Minister of the UK, Theresa May, said that she could not support the government’s plan to override parts of its Brexit agreement with the European Union. She said that moving ahead with this law would break international law and damage the United Kingdom’s trust. On Tuesday, the internal market bill will be voted on in the Commons as it had already passed the first hurdle last week. Ministers have said that the bill contains vital safeguards to protect Northern Ireland and the rest of the U.K. 

In simple terms, the bill is designed to enable goods and services to flow freely across England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland after Brexit on January 1 when U.L. will leave the E.U.’s single market customs union. However, this bill gives the government the power to change the aspects of the E.U. withdrawal agreement that was signed between both nations earlier this year. Theresa May has spoken against this bill, and the markets have started selling British Pound that ultimately led to a declining GBP/USD pair.

On the data front, the Rightmove Housing Price Index in September rose to 0.2% against the previous -0.2% and supported GBP. On the other hand, the greenback was strong across the board as it regained its safe-haven status amid the increasing concerns over the U.S. stimulus measure. The strength of the U.S. dollar added further pressure on GBP/USD pair on Monday.

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2737     1.2930

1.2659     1.3045

1.2544     1.3123

Pivot point: 1.2852

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded sharply bearish at 1.2784 support level, having violated the upward channel on the hourly chart. The triple bottom level of 1.2780 is likely to keep the GBP/USD pair supported, and violation of this may lead the Cable towards 1.2727 level. On the higher side, the GBP/USD may drive upward movement until the 1.2840 level. The 50 periods EMA are likely to extend selling until 1.2727 level. The MACD is currently moving into the bullish zone; however, it can be merely for correction. Let’s consider taking a sell trade below 1.2780 level today. 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair failed to extend its early-day recovery moves and dropped to a 104.47 level while representing 0.11% losses on the day. However, the currency pair losing streak could be attributed to the downbeat market sentiment, which tends to underpin the safe-haven Japanese yen and contributed to the currency pair declines. Hence, the market trading sentiment was being pressured by the negative comments from the Federal Reserve members. 

Apart from this, the recent resurgence in the pandemic, mainly in Europe and the U.K., also weighing on the market risk tone. Across the pond, the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the multiple factors, could also be considered as a key factor that dragged the currency pair lower. Currently, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 104.53 and consolidating in the range between 104.47 – 104.75.

However, the market risk tone extended its previous 5-consecutive day selling bias as fears of the coronavirus (COVID-19) resurgence disturbed the global markets. In the meantime, the Federal Reserve members’ downbeat comments also exerted pressure on the global traders. It is worth mentioning that the Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the economic recovery track remains “highly uncertainty.” Moreover, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard, also delivered a dovish tone while stating that the Fed will be much less pre-emptive about increasing rates.

On the flip side, the renewed tussle between the U.S. and China and Trump’s latest warnings to the firms helping Iran build arms also exerted downside pressure on the market risk-tone. The tension further boosted after the U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo took help from France, Germany, and the U.K. to reject China’s South China Sea claims at the United Nations (U.N.). This, in turn, underpinned the safe-haven Japanese yen and dragged the currency pair lower.

At the coronavirus front, the recent hike in the virus cases, mainly in Europe and the U.K., probes the buyers. As per the World Health Organization’s (WHO) regional director Hans Kluge, Europe reported 300,000 new infections, the most significant weekly rise ever, including the first spike in spring. Meanwhile, the U.K. is also preparing to slap new restrictions, which keeps the market trading ton sluggish and contributed to the currency pair losses.

Across the ocean, the decision-makers from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) also cited their worries in the latest appearances, which also probe the bulls. This was evident from a bearish sentiment around the equity markets, which underpinned the safe-haven Japanese yen and contributed to the USD/JPY pair’s downfall.

Despite the risk-off market sentiment, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction and edged lower on the day amid worries over the U.S. Congress’ stimulus impasse. Furthermore, the concerns about the ever-increasing number of coronavirus cases faded the optimism over the V-shape recovery, which also kept the U.S. dollar under pressure. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar kept the USD/JPY currency pair lower. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies fell to 93.623.

Looking forward, the traders will keep their eyes on the continuous drama surrounding the US-China relations and updates about the U.S. stimulus package. Given the holiday in Japan, due to the Autumnal Equinox Day, coupled with an absence of major data/events, the USD moves and coronavirus headline will be key to watch.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

104.44     105.10

104.15     105.47

103.78     105.76

Pivot point: 104.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

Despite sharp movement in the other currency pairs, the USD/JPY continues to follow the same technical setup. On the 4 hour chart, the downward channel is anticipated to drive selling sentiment in the USD/JPY pair as it provides resistance at the 104.800 level. On the downside, the support lingers at 104.100 level, and a bearish breakout can lead USD/JPY price further lower towards 103.700 level. The eyes will remain on the Fed Chair Powell Testifies as it may drive further market trends. 

Good luck! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, September 21 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Fed Chair Powell in Focus! 

The market’s fundamental side is likely to offer us a Fed Chair Powell Speech later during the New York session. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak, along with the rest of the FOMC board members, about rule-making for the Community Reinvestment Act, via satellite. It may drive volatility in the market today.

The market’s fundamental side is likely to offer us a Fed Chair Powell Speech later during the New York session. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak, along with the rest of the FOMC board members, about rule-making for the Community Reinvestment Act, via satellite. It may drive volatility in the market today.

The market’s fundamental side is likely to offer us a Fed Chair Powell Speech later during the New York session. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak, along with the rest of the FOMC board members, about rule-making for the Community Reinvestment Act, via satellite. It may drive volatility in the market today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18404 after placing a high of 1.18703 and a low of 1.18258. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The Euro U.S. Dollar exchange rate dropped on Friday amid the declining U.S. stock and risk sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Futures also fell from its record high. The risk sentiment was affected by the rising number of coronavirus cases in Europe.

 According to Johns Hopkins University, the number of coronaviruses confirmed cases across the globe have raised to 30 Million, and it raised fears of the second wave of coronavirus. Since the outbreak started in China late last year, the death toll has risen more than 940,000.

After the United States, India, and Brazil, Europe has reached the most confirmed cases as it has seen a renewed spike in the infections. The World Health Organization has also issued a warning that Europe could see many deaths from coronavirus over November and October. This has weighed heavily on the Euro currency, and the EUR/USD pair has been under pressure since then.

The rising number of coronavirus cases in Europe, some European countries imposed new lockdown measures to slow down the virus spread, and it raised fears for a quick economic recovery that also kept the EUR/USD prices on the downside on Friday.

Meanwhile, at 11:00 GMT, the German PPI in August remained flat with a projection of 0.0% on the data front. At 13:00 GMT, the Current Account Balance from Eurozone also showed a surplus of 16.6B against the projection of 12.0B and supported Euro.

On the U.S. front, the Current Account Balance from the U.S. dropped by -171B against the forecasted -158B and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The C.B. Leading Index also declined to 1.2% from the forecasted 1.3%, and the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment rose to 78.9 against the forecasted 75.0. The Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations came in at 2.7%. 

Apart from that, the U.S. dollar’s safe-haven status gained traction on Friday after the tensions between the United States and China raised amid the tech war. The U.S. government attempted to ban the Chinese WeChat app’s download in the United States, which was, however, failed due to rejection from the Judge. China may react to such action with anger, and this fear raised safe-haven appeal, and the U.S. dollar advanced that added pressure on EUR/USD prices on Friday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1772 1.1889

1.1696 1.1930

1.1655 1.2007

Pivot point: 1.1813

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair trades bullish at 1.1868 level, holding right below an immediate resistance level of 1.1870 that’s extended by a triple top pattern. On the hourly timeframe, a bullish crossover of 1.1870 level may lead EUR/USD prices towards the next target level of 1.1882 level. Conversely, selling bias remains strong below 1.1870 until the 1.1840 level today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

Today in the Asian trading hours, the GBP/USD currency pair extended its previous bullish trend and took some further bids around above the mid-1.2950 level. However, the currency pair’s bullish trend could be associated with the weaker sentiment surrounding the broad-based U.S. dollar ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve official’s speech. Adding to the U.S. dollar’s problem is its latest tussle with Iran and an on-going tension with Beijing. 

This, in turn, boosted the sentiment around the currency pair. Moreover, the currency pair gains could also be associated with the latest reports that the U.K. Finance Minister Rishi Sunak is again stepping forward to help businesses. On the contrary, the growing worries over a nationwide lockdown in the wake of rising coronavirus cases became the key factor that kept the lid on any additional currency pair gains. Apart from this, the on-going Brexit pessimism also keeps challenging the currency pair bullish bias. Moving on, the currency pair traders seem cautious to place any strong position ahead of the Fed policymakers’ comments during the American session,

The fears of rising COVID-19 cases in the UK, Spain, and some of the notable Asian nations like India continually fueling worries that the economic recovery could be halt, which eventually weighed on the market trading sentiment. Apart from this, the on-going political impasse over the shape and size of the next U.S. fiscal recovery package also played its role in declining equity markets. Elsewhere, the renewed conflict between the U.S. and China and the US-Iran tussle and Trump’s latest warnings to the firms helping Iran build arms also exerted downside pressure on the market risk-tone and underpinned the safe-haven Japanese yen.

Despite the risk-off market sentiment, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction and edged lower on the day ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve official’s speech, which is scheduled to happen later in the week. Besides, the decision over the inclusion of Chinese government bonds in the FTSE Russell World Government Bond Index (RWGBI) also keeps the USD bulls on the defensive. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar kept the GBP/USD currency pair higher. 

At home, the upcoming speech of British Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty suggests that the coronavirus return is not only halting the economic recovery but also pushes the country towards another lockdown and a “very challenging winter.” On the other hand, London Mayor Sadiq Khan also said that they’re “catching up” with Covid-19 hotspots in northern England. 

Additionally, capping the gains could be the fresh warning by the U.K. Transport Minister Grant Shapps about the rising odds of a nationwide lockdown, as the country’s coronavirus situation is at a critical point. At the Brexit front, the long-lasting Brexit pessimism is still looming over the GBP traders. Having initially showed a willingness to hear the Internal Market Bill (IMB), mainly due to the UK PM Boris Johnson’s offer to ease fisheries, the European Union (E.U.) is repeating the warning if London moves ahead to overcome the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB). These renewed fears also weighed on the GBP currency.

Looking forward, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which is expected 1.95 against 1.18 prior, will be key to watch on the day. Apart from this, the traders will also keep their eyes on the speech from the U.K.’s health authorities, at 10:00 AM GMT will be the key to watch. Whereas, the continuous drama surrounding the US-China relations and updates about the U.S. stimulus package will also be closely followed. 

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2890 1.3025

1.2810 1.3080

1.2756 1.3160

Pivot point: 1.2945

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Monday, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.2941 mark, staying within an upward channel that’s supporting the pair at 1.2909 level. The closing of the recent Doji candle above the EMA and upward trendline support level of 1.2909 level signals chances of upward direction in the market. Thus, traders should consider looking for a buying trade with a target of 1.2996 level. Violation of 1.2909 level can trigger selling bias until 1.2828 level. 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair extended its early-day losing streak and hit the intra-day low around the 104.28 regions in the last hours. However, the reason for the currency pair bearish bias could be attributed to the risk-off market sentiment, which tends to underpin the safe-haven Japanese yen and contributed to the currency pair decline. Hence, the market trading sentiment was being pressured by the coronavirus (COVID-19) and downbeat catalysts from America. 

Apart from this, the absence of any major data/events from the rest of the Asia-Pacific nations also kept the currency pair’s performance confined. On the other hand, the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak could also be considered a key factor that dragged the currency pair lower. 

Elsewhere, the market risk tone has been sluggish since the day started, possibly due to the worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in the U.K. and Europe. Meanwhile, the renewed conflict between the U.S. and China and the US-Iran tussle and Trump’s latest warnings to the firms helping Iran build arms also exerted downside pressure on the market risk-tone and underpinned the safe-haven Japanese yen. As per the World Health Organization’s (WHO) regional director Hans Kluge, Europe reported 300,000 new infections, the most significant weekly rise ever, including the first spike in spring. Furthermore, France, Poland, the Netherlands, and Spain are facing the second wave. The U.K. is already considering a new lockdown, while countries from Denmark to Greece announced new restrictions on Friday. These headlines add an extra burden on the market risk tone.

Across the ocean, the positive remarks from Chinese President Xi Jinping and hopes of further stimulus for the Asian major under the presidency of Yoshihide Suga might help the market trading sentiment to limit its deeper losses. At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction and edged lower on the day ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve official’s speech, scheduled to happen later in the week. Besides, the decision over the inclusion of Chinese government bonds in the FTSE Russell World Government Bond Index (RWGBI) also keeps the USD bulls on the defensive. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar kept the USD/JPY currency pair lower. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies fell by 0.16% to 92.870 by 9:55 PM ET (2:55 AM GMT).

Looking forward, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which is expected 1.95 against 1.18 prior, will be key to watch on the day. Apart from this, the continuous drama surrounding the US-China relations and updates about the U.S. stimulus package will also be closely followed. In the meantime, the USD moves and coronavirus headlines will not lose their importance as they could play a key role in the currency pair movements.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

104.44 105.10

104.15 105.47

103.78 105.76

Pivot point: 104.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair had disrupted the double bottom support mark of 104.650, and presently it’s holding beneath 50 periods EMA, implying chances of selling bias in the USD/JPY. On the 4 hour chart, the downward channel is anticipated to drive selling sentiment in the USD/JPY pair. On the downside, the support lingers at 104.100 level, and a bearish breakout can lead USD/JPY price further lower towards 103.700 level. The eyes will remain on the Fed Chair Powell’s speech as it may drive further market trends. The MACD and EMA are also in support of selling bias. 

Good luck! 

 

 

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CAD Bounces off to test Resistance Level – Brace for Buy Signal! 

The USD/CAD currency pair failed to stop its previous session declining rally and took some further offers while refreshing 3-day lows, around the 1.3135 regions in the last hour. However, the sentiment around the currency pair was being pressured by the US dollar’s selling tone. Hence, the broad-based US dollar weakness could be associated with the renewed optimism over a possible vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease, which eventually forced investors to continue dumping the safe-haven greenback. 

The USD/CAD currency pair failed to stop its previous session declining rally and took some further offers while refreshing 3-day lows, around the 1.3135 regions in the last hour. However, the sentiment around the currency pair was being pressured by the US dollar’s selling tone. Hence, the broad-based US dollar weakness could be associated with the renewed optimism over a possible vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease, which eventually forced investors to continue dumping the safe-haven greenback. 

The USD/CAD currency pair failed to stop its previous session declining rally and took some further offers while refreshing 3-day lows, around the 1.3135 regions in the last hour. However, the sentiment around the currency pair was being pressured by the US dollar’s selling tone. Hence, the broad-based US dollar weakness could be associated with the renewed optimism over a possible vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus disease, which eventually forced investors to continue dumping the safe-haven greenback. 

Apart from this, the doubts over the US fiscal stimulus measures and upbeat China data also weighed on the broad-based US dollar. On the contrary, the subdued/range-bound trading moves around the crude oil prices could be considered one of the key factors that kept the lid on any additional currency pair losses. At the time of writing, the USD/CAD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3162 and consolidating in the range between 1.3132 – 1.3187.

The global market trading sentiment got a strong boost after AstraZeneca resumed phase-3 clinical trials of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate. As per the latest report, the Chinese CDC chief biosafety expert recently confirmed that the Ordinary Chinese could take the COVID19 vaccine as early as November or December as the phase III clinical trial went very smoothly. Besides, Pfizer and BioNTech also boosted vaccine hopes while saying that they are also looking to expand their candidates’ trials. 

Furthermore, the risk-on market sentiment was further bolstered after the release of stronger-than-expected Chinese industrial production data, which strengthened the hopes that the world’s second-largest economy is returning to normal and weighed over the US dollar. At the data front, China’s August Retail Sales YoY, the number came at 0.5%. 0% exp and -1.1% last, with Industrial Output YoY at +5.6% and +5.1% exp and +4.8% last. In the meantime, the Fixed Asset Investment YoY unchanged at -0.3% vs. -0.4% expected and -1.6% last. At the same time, China’s January-August Private Sector Fixed Asst Investment dropped by 2.8% YoY.  

As a result, the broad-based US dollar failed to gain any positive traction and remained bearish. Moreover, the US dollar losses could also be attributed to the doubts over the US fiscal stimulus measures. The chances for a comprehensive stimulus seem weakened after Democratic voted to block a Republican bill that would have provided around $300 billion in new coronavirus aid. However, the losses in the US dollar kept the USD/CAD currency pair under pressure. Whereas, the US dollar index dropped to 93.029, slipping further from a one-month high of 93.664 touched last Wednesday, with its low last week of 92.695 seen as immediate support.

However, the market trading sentiment was rather unaffected by the rising global COVID-19 cases, fears of no-deal Brexit, and the Sino-American tussle. At the US-China front, Sino-US’s tensions picked up further pace after the US blocks Chinese goods made with forced labor. As per the latest report, the Trump administration has banned importing certain apparel and computer parts from China, while saying forced Muslim laborers make them from the Xinjiang region.

On the contrary, the crude oil prices failed to maintain its early-day small gains and started to flash red during the European session around 37.18. However, the reason for the bearish bias around the crude oil prices could be attributed to the fears of the oversupply and lower demand. Moreover, Libya’s news is restoring its exports also added extra burden around the crude oil prices. Thus, the decline in oil prices undermined the demand for the commodity-linked currency, the loonie, and the key factor that cap further downside momentum for the currency pair. 


The USD/CAD pair is trading sharply bullish at 1.3237 level, having formed a series of bullish engulfing candles on the hourly timeframe. On the higher side, the pair may soar further until 1.3243 level. The MACD and RSI suggest a bullish bias, while the 50 periods EMA also suggests a bullish trend. Let’s follow a trading plan below.  

Entry Price – Buy 1.31816

Stop Loss – 1.31416

Take Profit – 1.32216

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

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Categories
Forex Daily Topic Forex Price Action

Keep an Eye at the Last Daily Candle’s Closing

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of the daily-H4 chart combination trading. In the daily-H4 chart combination trading, the daily chart plays a very significant role. As long as the price in the daily chart heads towards the trend, the traders may find the opportunities to take entry. Let us now proceed and find out what that means.

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of the daily-H4 chart combination trading. In the daily-H4 chart combination trading, the daily chart plays a very significant role. As long as the price in the daily chart heads towards the trend, the traders may find the opportunities to take entry. Let us now proceed and find out what that means.

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of the daily-H4 chart combination trading. In the daily-H4 chart combination trading, the daily chart plays a very significant role. As long as the price in the daily chart heads towards the trend, the traders may find the opportunities to take entry. Let us now proceed and find out what that means.

It is a daily chart. The chart shows that the price heads towards the North with good bullish momentum. The last candle comes out as an inverted hammer with a tiny bullish body. The long upper shadow suggests that the price has a strong rejection at a level of resistance. Nevertheless, the candle has a bullish body, and the candle closes above its last candle’s highest high. Thus, the daily-H4 combination traders may flip over to the H4 chart to go long in the pair.

This is how the H4 chart looks. It produces a bearish engulfing candle followed by a spinning top. It seems that the price may have found its support. If the price makes a breakout at the last swing high, the buyers may go long in the pair.

The chart produces two more bullish candles. The last candle comes out as a hammer with a bearish body. It seems that the price does not know where to go. Traders must be patient here.

The chart produces a bullish engulfing candle closing well above the last swing high. The buyers may trigger a long entry right after the last candle closes. It seems that the bull may make another strong move towards the North. Let us find out how the trade goes.

As expected, the price heads towards the trend with extreme bullish pressure. It hits 1R by the next candle. The candle closes with a thick bullish body. It means that the buyers still have control in the chart. Thus, the buyers may wait for the price to consolidate and get a bullish reversal candle followed by a bullish breakout to go long and drive the price towards the North further.

If we concentrate on the daily chart, we see that the last daily candle is not a strong bullish candle. However, consolidation and a bullish engulfing candle in the H4 chart attract the buyers to go long in the pair. As long as the daily candle closes above/below the last candles highest high/lowest low, the daily-H4 chart combination traders shall keep their eyes in the H4 chart for finding trading opportunities.

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CHF Erased Its Previous Session Losses – An Update on Signal! 

During the Friday’s European trading hours, the USD/CHF currency pair stopped its early-day bearish rally and drew some fresh bids around above 0.9100 level despite the cautious mood around the equity markets. Besides this, the prevalent selling bias surrounding the U.S. dollar also failed to drag the currency pair down. Hence, the broad-based U.S. dollar came under pressure instantly after the Thursday’s rather unimpressive U.S. economic data. 

During the Friday’s European trading hours, the USD/CHF currency pair stopped its early-day bearish rally and drew some fresh bids around above 0.9100 level despite the cautious mood around the equity markets. Besides this, the prevalent selling bias surrounding the U.S. dollar also failed to drag the currency pair down. Hence, the broad-based U.S. dollar came under pressure instantly after the Thursday’s rather unimpressive U.S. economic data. 

During the Friday’s European trading hours, the USD/CHF currency pair stopped its early-day bearish rally and drew some fresh bids around above 0.9100 level despite the cautious mood around the equity markets. Besides this, the prevalent selling bias surrounding the U.S. dollar also failed to drag the currency pair down. Hence, the broad-based U.S. dollar came under pressure instantly after the Thursday’s rather unimpressive U.S. economic data. 

Apart from this, the U.S. dollar losses were further bolstered by the fresh fall in U.S. tech stocks on Thursday, which tends to drag the currency pair down. Across the pond, the risk barometer tracks Wall Street’s mild losses to print a three-day losing streak, which in turn, underpinned the safe-haven Swiss Franc and becomes the key factor that kept the lid on any further gains in the currency pair. 

Currently, the USD/CHF currency pair is currently trading at 0.9099 and consolidating in the range between 0.9075 – 0.9100. The faith over the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine/treatment was dominated by concerns about the second wave of coronavirus infections, which fading optimism over a sharp V-shaped global economic recovery. Besides this, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) another stress test for large banks and a lack of major data/events also keeps the market trading sentiment under pressure. Whereas, the U.K. scientist group’s readiness for a state lockdown of almost two weeks and Global Times’ direct war signals to the U.S., over American diplomat’s visit to Taiwan, also exerted downside pressure on the equity market, which tend to underpin the safe-haven Swiss Franc.

Despite the risk-off market sentiment, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction and edged lower on the day as doubts persist over the global economic recovery from COVID-19. The disappointing U.S. employment data witnessed that. Apart from this, another rout in U.S. tech stocks also undermined the U.S. dollar. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar becomes the key factor that kept the lid on any further gains in the currency pair. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies, dropped by 0.05% to 92.927 by 12:48 AM ET (5:48 AM GMT).

Looking forward, the market traders will keep their eyes on the USD moves amid the lack of major data/events on the day. However, the U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September, which is expected 75 versus 74.1 prior, will likely help resolve near-term USD moves. Furthermore, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, will also be key to watch for the fresh direction.


The USD/CHF is trading at 0.9104, holding right below a strong resistance level of 0.91130. Closing of candles over the support level of 0.9077 level can trigger buying trades in the USD/CHF pair. The series of EMAs is also supporting buying trends; therefore, we may look for bullish trades on the USD/CHF pair. Check out the forex trading signal below…

Entry Price – Buy 0.90932

Stop Loss – 0.90532

Take Profit – 0.91332

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

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Forex Signals

Bullish Channel Underpins the EUR/CHF – Update on Signal!

The EUR/CHF continues trading bullish at 1.0776 as stronger Euro is likely to drive EUR/CHF bullish. The demand for safe-haven assets is keeping the CHF supported; however, the technical side of the market is still dragging the EUR/CHF higher. The optimism over the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine/treatment was overshadowed by the concerns about the second wave of coronavirus infections, which fading optimism over a sharp V-shaped global economic recovery. 

The EUR/CHF continues trading bullish at 1.0776 as stronger Euro is likely to drive EUR/CHF bullish. The demand for safe-haven assets is keeping the CHF supported; however, the technical side of the market is still dragging the EUR/CHF higher. The optimism over the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine/treatment was overshadowed by the concerns about the second wave of coronavirus infections, which fading optimism over a sharp V-shaped global economic recovery. 

The EUR/CHF continues trading bullish at 1.0776 as stronger Euro is likely to drive EUR/CHF bullish. The demand for safe-haven assets is keeping the CHF supported; however, the technical side of the market is still dragging the EUR/CHF higher. The optimism over the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine/treatment was overshadowed by the concerns about the second wave of coronavirus infections, which fading optimism over a sharp V-shaped global economic recovery. 

Whereas, the U.K. scientist group’s readiness for a state lockdown of almost two weeks and Global Times’ direct war signals to the U.S., over American diplomat’s visit to Taiwan, also exerted downside pressure on the equity market, which tend to underpin the safe-haven Swiss Franc.

Despite the risk-off market sentiment, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to achieve any positive traction and trimmed lower on the day as doubts persist over the global economic recovery from COVID-19. The disappointing U.S. employment data witnessed that. Apart from this, another rout in U.S. tech stocks also undermined the U.S. dollar. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar becomes the key factor that kept the pressure on any additional gains in the pair. While, the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies, dropped by 0.05% to 92.927 by 12:48 AM ET (5:48 AM GMT).


Technically, the EUR/CHF is supported over 1.0763 level, and closing of candles above this support level may drive further buying until 1.0785. The MACD and 50 EMA are also supporting an upward trend in the market. Recent bullish engulfing is also supporting the bullish trend in the market. Checkout a trading plan below…

Entry Price – Buy 1.07692

Stop Loss – 1.07292

Take Profit – 1.08092

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

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Forex Signals

EUR/JPY Failed to Gains Positive Traction – Quick 40 Pips Profit! 

Today in the early European trading session, the EUR/JPY currency pair failed to stop its previous session losing streak and further offers around below the 124.00 regions in the last hours. However, the bearish bias around the currency pair was bolstered by the reports suggesting the confirmation of deflation seeping back into the Eurozone, which undermined the shared currency and contributed to the currency pair declines. Meanwhile, the continued rise in coronavirus cases also exerted downside pressure on the shared currency, which dragged the currency par below 124.00. 

Today in the early European trading session, the EUR/JPY currency pair failed to stop its previous session losing streak and further offers around below the 124.00 regions in the last hours. However, the bearish bias around the currency pair was bolstered by the reports suggesting the confirmation of deflation seeping back into the Eurozone, which undermined the shared currency and contributed to the currency pair declines. Meanwhile, the continued rise in coronavirus cases also exerted downside pressure on the shared currency, which dragged the currency par below 124.00. 

Today in the early European trading session, the EUR/JPY currency pair failed to stop its previous session losing streak and further offers around below the 124.00 regions in the last hours. However, the bearish bias around the currency pair was bolstered by the reports suggesting the confirmation of deflation seeping back into the Eurozone, which undermined the shared currency and contributed to the currency pair declines. Meanwhile, the continued rise in coronavirus cases also exerted downside pressure on the shared currency, which dragged the currency par below 124.00. 

The reason for the currency pair selling bias could also be attributed to the market risk-off mood, which eventually underpinned the Japanese yen’s safe-haven demand. Hence, the risk-off market sentiment was mainly sponsored by the Fed’s hint for another stress test for large banks as well as the U.K. scientist group’s readiness for another national lockdown also weighed on the market risk tone. At this particular time, the EUR/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 123.86 and consolidating in the range between 123.81 – 124.31.

At the coronavirus front, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases increased to 263,773, with a total of 9,378 deaths reported on the day. Meanwhile, the number of new infections rose by 1,916 on Friday, while the death toll rose by 7, as per the latest data from the German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI). This, in turn, undermined the sentiment around the single currency and contributed to the currency par declines.

Moreover, the sentiment around the shard currency was further bolstered by the reports suggesting confirmation of deflation seeping back into the Eurozone. Detail suggested the Eurozone annualized CPI confirmed the -0.2% previous estimate.

Across the pond, the market trading sentiment has been flashing mixed signals since the day started. Be it the American lawmakers’ failure to offer any positive announcement on the coronavirus (COVID-19) relief package or the recent escalation in the Sino-American tussle, not to forget the downbeat U.S. data, these all factors have been weighing on the market risk tone. This, in turn, underpinned the safe-haven Japanese yen.

The employment data released on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims dropped slower than expected at the data front. Eight hundred sixty thousand claims were filed over the past week against the predicted 850,000.

Additionally, weighing the market trading sentiment could be the fears of rising COVID-19 cases in the U.S., Europe, and some of the notable Asian nations like India, fueling fears that the economic recovery could be halted. 

Looking forward, the market traders will keep their eyes on the USD moves amid the lack of major data/events on the day. However, the U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September, which is expected 75 versus 74.1 prior, will likely help resolve near-term USD moves. Furthermore, the risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes, not to forget the Brexit, will also be key to watch for the fresh direction.


We decided to open a sell position in the EUR/JPY pair during the European session as it formed a bearish engulfing pattern below 124.250 level. The candle closing drove more selling in the EUR/JPY pair, and now it’s likely to trigger more selling until the 123.375 level. The MACD and 50 EMA were also supporting selling bias; therefore, we decided to capture a quick sell position to target 123.742 take profit level. Let’s keep an eye on 123.3750 now as the closing of candles above this level may drive some buying during the U.S. session. Good luck! 

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Forex Signals

Gold Choppy Session Continues – Quick Buy Limit!  

The yellow metal prices failed to maintain its previous-day gaining streak and edged lower to 1,940 level due to the broad-based U.S. dollar strength, backed by the better-than-expected U.S. unemployment figures. Apart from this, the central bank said that it expects the U.S. economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis to gather pace, boosting the U.S. dollar sentiment.

The yellow metal prices failed to maintain its previous-day gaining streak and edged lower to 1,940 level due to the broad-based U.S. dollar strength, backed by the better-than-expected U.S. unemployment figures. Apart from this, the central bank said that it expects the U.S. economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis to gather pace, boosting the U.S. dollar sentiment.

The yellow metal prices failed to maintain its previous-day gaining streak and edged lower to 1,940 level due to the broad-based U.S. dollar strength, backed by the better-than-expected U.S. unemployment figures. Apart from this, the central bank said that it expects the U.S. economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis to gather pace, boosting the U.S. dollar sentiment.

However, the U.S. dollar upticks pushed the bullion prices down in Asian morning trade, although the U.S. Federal Reserve also stated yesterday that it was keeping interest rates close to zero until inflation increases to over 2%. On the contrary, the previous market optimism over the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine/treatment was recently overshadowed by the latest mixed signals regarding the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine and U.S. aid package. This, in turn, the market trading sentiment turned sour, which might help the gold prices to limit its deeper losses. 

It is worth recalling that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) upwardly revised short-term economic forecasts. Meanwhile, he also repeated their promise to do everything necessary. The U.S. central bank also holds the Average Inflation Targeting (AIT) program while displaying a readiness to keep the easy monetary policy even if the inflation shoots above the 2.0% target. 

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar extended its early bullish trend on the day amid mixed sentiment in the market. Moreover, the foresees unemployment falling faster than the central bank expected in June, also helped the greenback to put the fresh bids. Let me remind, the Us dollar saw losses in the wake of the Fed’s comments and disappointing U.S. retail sales data but gradually erased the losses after the Fed hinted economic growth to improve from the COVID-19. However, the modest surge in the greenback kept the gold prices under pressure as gold price is inversely related to the U.S. dollar price. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index Futures that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies was up 0.45% to 93.543 by 12:24 AM ET (5:24 AM GMT).

However, the equity market has started to flash red since the Asian session started. Hence, the reason for the risk-off market sentiment could be the deadlock over the U.S. Congress proceeding over the much-awaited aid package. Although the U.S. President Donald Trump recently indicated the solution to arrive soon, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s rejection of holding the votes on a package around $1.5 trillion shows that the Democrats are in no mood to relinquish controls. This, in turn, undermined the market trading sentiment and helped the gold prices to limit its deeper losses.

The market trading sentiment was further bolstered by the fresh U.S. President Donald Trump’s warnings to the World Trade Organization for its favor to China. This, in turn, might recall the trade war concerns that have been silent off-late. Across the pond, the COVID-19 outbreak continues to rise, which keep dampening the global economic outlook.

On the contrary, the market trading sentiment was rather unaffected by the renewed optimism over the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine/treatment. Nevertheless, U.S. President Donald Trump said that late-October would distribute the COVID-19 vaccine, and policymakers in the U.K., China, and Russia also join the upbeat tone about finding the cure of the pandemic. This could help the market trading sentiment to limit its losses.


Looking ahead, the market players will keep their eyes on the busy economic calendar for near-term moves—the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and the U.S. housing data will be key to watch. Meanwhile, the updates surrounding the fresh Sino-US tussle and the coronavirus (COVID-19) updates could not lose their importance.

Gold prices slipped dramatically from 1,959 level to the 1,940 mark operating above the 1,936 support range. The triple bottom pattern on the hourly chart is expected to support gold prices now at 1,936. Beyond this, bullish sentiment can pull gold price higher until the 1,949 level, and over this, the 1,958 level may serve as resistance. Breakout of 1,936 mark can prolong selling bias unto 1,924 area today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, September 17 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for BOE Policy! 

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the U.K. Monetary Policy reports due during the late European hours. BOE isn’t expected to change the rates, and it may keep them at 0.10%; however, it will be important to see MPC Official Bank Rate Votes. Besides, the European Final CPI data will remain in focus today. During the U.S. session, the Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be the main highlight to drive further market movement.

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the U.K. Monetary Policy reports due during the late European hours. BOE isn’t expected to change the rates, and it may keep them at 0.10%; however, it will be important to see MPC Official Bank Rate Votes. Besides, the European Final CPI data will remain in focus today. During the U.S. session, the Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be the main highlight to drive further market movement.

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the U.K. Monetary Policy reports due during the late European hours. BOE isn’t expected to change the rates, and it may keep them at 0.10%; however, it will be important to see MPC Official Bank Rate Votes. Besides, the European Final CPI data will remain in focus today. During the U.S. session, the Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be the main highlight to drive further market movement.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.18161 after placing a high of 1.18824 and a low of 1.17873. The EUR/USD pair continued following its previous day bearish trend on Wednesday ahead of the FOMC meeting. The pair posted losses on the day despite upbeat macroeconomic data from Europe.

The U.S. dollar became strong in response to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. The Fed left its monetary policy unchanged and signaled no changes to borrowing costs potentially through 2023. The growth projections by Fed pointed a return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021.

The Federal Reserve Chairmen, Jerome Powell, said that the current bond-buying level was appropriate and said that more fiscal support was likely to be needed. The U.S. dollar index found support at 92.8 level and spiked to 93.15 level and weighed on EUR/USD pair.

On the data front, At 14:00 GMT, the Trade Balance from the Eurozone showed a surplus of 20.3B against the forecasted 19.3B in July and supported single currency Euro. However, the upbeat data failed to reverse the pair’s movement as the focus was all on the FOMC meeting and Fed decision.

On the U.S. front, the Core Retail Sales in August declined to 0.7% from the forecasted 1.0%, and the Retail Sales in August also dropped to 0.6% from the projected 1.2% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. Whereas, the Business Inventories in July dropped to 0.1% from the projected 0.2% and supported the U.S. dollar. The NAHB Housing Market Index advanced to 83 from the anticipated 78 and supported the U.S. dollar. The mixed macroeconomic data from the U.S. also failed to impact on EUR/USD prices on Wednesday.

As the WHO has warned that the death toll in Europe is likely to increase in October and November, the local currency has come under pressure since then. On Wednesday, the regional health authorities announced that Madrid’s Spanish capital would introduce selective lockdowns in urban areas where the coronavirus has spread widely. This also weighed on local currency and added further pressure on EUR/USD pair.

On Wednesday, the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen came to the European Parliament in Brussels to deliver her first state of European Union Address. She announced new plans that included measures to tear down single market restrictions, a new strategy for the Schengen zone, a proposal to increase the 2030 target of emission reduction to 55%, and investment for digital technologies. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1773 1.1828 1.1869
1.1732 1.1924
1.1676 1.1966

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair has traded sharply bearish at 1.1750 area, and now the same level is extending solid support to the pair. On the higher side, the EUR/USD may soar until 1.1780 level that marks 38.2% Fibo and 1.1810 level of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Conversely, the support stays at 1.1699 level today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.29666 after placing a high of 1.30070 and a low of 1.28749. Overall the movement of the GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The pair GBP/USD extended its previous daily gains and rose above 1.3000 level on Wednesday amid dovish hopes for the FOMC meeting. The strong CPI report from the U.K. negative Retail Sales report from the U.S. also added further gains in the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday.

As investors have digested the recent developments surrounding Brexit and the internal market bill, the heavy tone surrounding the U.S. dollar also helped the GBP/USD pair to surgeon Wednesday. The heavy bearish pressure on the U.S. dollar was exerted by the release of disappointing U.S. monthly Retail Sales figures for August.

At 17:30 GMT, the Core Retail Sales dropped to 0.7% from the anticipated 1.0%, and the Retail Sales were declined to 0.6% from the projected 1.1% and weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar that helped GBP/USD pair to move on the upside. Meanwhile, from the U.K., at 11:00 GMT, the Consumer Price Index for the year rose to 0.2% from the expected 0.1% and supported the Sterling. The Core Consumer Price Index also rose to 0.9% from the expected 0.7% and supported British Pound.

Whereas the PPI Input in August was declined to -0.4% from the forecasted 0.1%, and the PPI Output also declined to 0.0% against the forecasted 0.2% and weighed on local currency. The year’s RPI declined to 0.5% from the expected 0.6% and weighed on British Pound. However, the Housing Price Index for the year rose to 3.4% from the projected 3.2% and supported British Pound that added further gains in GBP/USD pair.

On the Brexit front, the head of the European Commission said on Wednesday that the chances of reaching a trade deal with Britain were fading by the day as the British government pushes ahead with moves that would breach their withdrawal agreement.

Brussels have warned Prime Minister Boris Johnson to scrap the Internal Market Bill, or it would sink the talks on future trade arrangements before Britain finally leaves the E.U.’s orbit on December 31. However, Johnson has refused to step back from issuing an Internal Market Bill. 

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that the timely agreement’s chances have started to fade with the time passing, which raised the fears on no-deal Brexit. However, this failed to cap the additional gains in GBP/USD pair as markets have already priced the no-deal Brexit worries. Moreover, the U.S. dollar was also under pressure on Wednesday ahead of FOMC meeting results and the speech of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This added further strength in the GBP/USD pair.

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.2890 1.2949 1.3024
1.2815 1.3083
1.2757 1.3157

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.2909 level, holding within an upward channel supporting the pair at 1.2909 level. The closing of the recent Doji candle over the EMA and upward trendline support level of 1.2909 level suggests odds of upward movement in the market. Considering this, we may have some upward trend in the Sterling ahead of the BOE rate decision. Thus, we should look for a buying trade with a target of 1.2996 level. Violation of 1.2909 le el can trigger selling bias until 1.2828 level, but it depends upon the policy decision today. Let’s keep an eye on it. 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY Pair was closed at 104.944 after placing a high of 105.432 and a low of 104.799. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bearish throughout the day. The pair USD/JPY extended its bearish trend for the 3rd consecutive day and fell to its lowest since July 31. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.3% on Wednesday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting outcome.

The decline in the U.S. dollar was due to the expectations that the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee will maintain a dovish stance on the economy’s outlook. Last month during the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium, the Federal Reserve unveiled a major change in policy and said it would now target an inflation rate that averages 2% over time. Previously the Fed’s target was to maintain inflation at 2%; the current U.S. consumer inflation is at 1.3%.

The Market Participants do not expect any rise in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate of 0.25% for a longer period; however, they were keenly awaiting the meeting to conclude whether the central bank issues any surprise economic projections. The dovish expectations kept the local currency under pressure that weighed on the USD/JPY pair on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the Trade Balance from Japan showed a surplus of 0.35T from the anticipated 0.01T and supported the Japanese Yen that added further pressure on the USD/JPY pair on the data front. On the U.S. side, the Core Retail Sales in August fell to 0.7% from the anticipated 1.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that exerted further pressure on the USD/JPY pair. In August, the Retail Sales also fell to 0.6% from the anticipated 1.1% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that kept the pair USD/JPY on the downside.

However, in July, the Business Inventories that were released at 19:00 GMT dropped to 0.1% from the forecasted 0.2% and supported the U.S. dollar. The NAHB Housing Market Index also favored the U.S. dollar when it rose to 83 from the anticipated 78 and capped further downward movement in the USD/JPY pair.

On Wednesday, the U.S. President Donald Trump urged Republicans to hold a larger coronavirus package as this will increase the chances of striking a deal with Democrats. The comments from Trump showed a need for stimulus and raised hopes that the stimulus package will be announced soon, and hence, the U.S. dollar came under fresh pressure that ultimately weighed on USD/JPY pair prices.

On the other hand, the USD/JPY pair’s losses were limited by the latest news that supported the risk sentiment in the market. The U.S. Federal Government drew a sweeping plan on Wednesday to make vaccines for the coronavirus available for free to all Americans. The federal health agencies and the Defense Department offered plans for a vaccination campaign that will start in January or later this year. The market participants are waiting for his speech to find fresh clues about the economic condition and further monetary policy decisions by the U.S. government. Hence, the local currency remained under pressure ahead of it and kept weighing the USD/JPY currency pair.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
104.6700 105.0600 105.3300
104.4100 105.7100
104.0200 105.9800

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair had violated the double bottom support level of 105.300 level, and closing of the candle below 105.300 level may drive more selling bias in the USD/JPY. On the lower side, the support stays at 104.780 level, and a bearish breakout can lead USD/JPY price further lower towards 104.300 level. The focus will remain on the U.S. Jobless claims data as it may drive further market trends. The MACD and EMA are also in support of selling bias. 

Good luck! 

 

 

Categories
Forex Signals

Gold Trades Choppy Ahead of FOMC – Ascending Triangle in Play! 

During Wednesday’s Asian trading session, the yellow metal prices extended its overnight buying bias and gathered some pace around the two-week tops above 1,960. The massive offered tone surrounding the greenback was seen as one of the major factors that helped the dollar-denominated commodity gold. However, the weaker tone around the U.S. dollar was mainly driven by the ongoing risk-on mood, which eventually undermined the safe-haven U.S. dollar. Besides, the U.S. dollar bearish bias could also be associated with traders’ cautious mood ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Apart from this, the market trading sentiment was being supported by the news suggesting the AstraZeneca’s restart of the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine trials.

During Wednesday’s Asian trading session, the yellow metal prices extended its overnight buying bias and gathered some pace around the two-week tops above 1,960. The massive offered tone surrounding the greenback was seen as one of the major factors that helped the dollar-denominated commodity gold. However, the weaker tone around the U.S. dollar was mainly driven by the ongoing risk-on mood, which eventually undermined the safe-haven U.S. dollar. Besides, the U.S. dollar bearish bias could also be associated with traders’ cautious mood ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Apart from this, the market trading sentiment was being supported by the news suggesting the AstraZeneca’s restart of the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine trials.

During Wednesday’s Asian trading session, the yellow metal prices extended its overnight buying bias and gathered some pace around the two-week tops above 1,960. The massive offered tone surrounding the greenback was seen as one of the major factors that helped the dollar-denominated commodity gold. However, the weaker tone around the U.S. dollar was mainly driven by the ongoing risk-on mood, which eventually undermined the safe-haven U.S. dollar. Besides, the U.S. dollar bearish bias could also be associated with traders’ cautious mood ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Apart from this, the market trading sentiment was being supported by the news suggesting the AstraZeneca’s restart of the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine trials.

Meanwhile, the risk-on sentiment was further bolstered by the University Of Pittsburgh School Of Medicine’s positive news, where experts produced the strongest antibody component for the coronavirus tested over animals. These positive headlines became the key factor that kept the lid on any further yellow metal gains. On the contrary, the Sino-US trade area and coronavirus woes flashed mixed signals, which keep challenging the market risk-on sentiment. Gold prices are currently trading at 1,966 and consolidating in the range between 1,949.99 – 1,962.97. Moving on, the market traders seem reluctant to place any strong position ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, which is due to happen on the day. 

Despite the COVID-19’s ongoing global spread and the Sino-American tussle, not to forget the fears of no-deal Brexit, the market trading sentiment extended its early-day positive tone and remained supportive by the positive data from the U.S. and China, which suggesting gradual recoveries in the global economics from China and the U.S. At the data front, China’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales surpassed forecasts for August, the U.S. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index also recovered to 17.00 and pleased the optimists. 

Apart from this, the reasons for the risk-on market trading sentiment could also be attributed to the positive headlines concerning the coronavirus vaccine. The AstraZeneca showed readiness for resuming its vaccine trials after a brief “routine” pause, while the Pfizer is confident about getting the cure of the pandemic by the year’s end. Furthermore, the latest news came from the University Of Pittsburgh School Of Medicine, wherein the scientists produced the strongest antibody component for the pandemic. This, in turn, underpinned the market trading sentiment and kept the lid on any further gains in the gold prices.

Across the pond, the tussle between the US-China flashed mixed signals as the Trump administration quietly eased warning towards China and Hong Kong. Whereas, the Dragon Nation extended tariff relief for U.S. imports. This, in turn, the U.S. rolled back the decision to ban some of the productions from Xinjiang. Despite this, the relationship between US-China turned sour after the World Trade Organization (WTO) ruled against the Trump administration’s decision to levy multiple trade sanctions on China. These mixed headlines might exert downside pressure on the market trading sentiment, which could help further the safe-haven assets.

The broad-based U.S. dollar failed to keep its overnight gains and edged lower on the day, mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment. Moreover, the U.S. dollar losses could also be associated with cautious sentiment ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, which is scheduled to take place on the day. It is worth mentioning that the Fed will speak later to hand down its policy decision; as we know, this will be its first meeting since Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced a more relaxed approach to inflation at the Jackson Hole symposium August 27. However, this stance is broadly expected to be continued and could undermine the U.S. dollar by introducing further stimulus measures. At the coronavirus front, the ongoing rise in COVID-19 cases globally continues to fuel worries concerning the global economic outlook for the foreseeable future.


Looking ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on Japan’s trade numbers and Aussie housing data. Whereas, investors are also looking to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, scheduled to take place on the day. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s Current Account and the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) will also key to watch. All in all, the updates surrounding the Brexit, virus, and US-China tussle will not lose their importance. 

The yellow metal gold traded sharply bullish amid weaker U.S. dollar to trade at 1,961 level. On the higher side, the gold prices may continue to trade bullish until 1,970 and 1,985 and 1,994 resistance levels. On the lower side, the gold may gain support at 1,963 and 1,955 levels. Overall, the trading bias seems bullish. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Managed To Keeps Winning Streak – Buy Signal In Play! 

Today in the early European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair extended its previous session bullish bias and took further bids around a weekly high 0.7329 level, mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment, backed by the on-going optimism over treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus. Moreover, the renewed Sino-American trade optimism also helped the market risk tone, which underpinned the Australian dollar’s perceived risk currency and contributed to the currency pair gains.  

Today in the early European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair extended its previous session bullish bias and took further bids around a weekly high 0.7329 level, mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment, backed by the on-going optimism over treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus. Moreover, the renewed Sino-American trade optimism also helped the market risk tone, which underpinned the Australian dollar’s perceived risk currency and contributed to the currency pair gains.  

Today in the early European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair extended its previous session bullish bias and took further bids around a weekly high 0.7329 level, mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment, backed by the on-going optimism over treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus. Moreover, the renewed Sino-American trade optimism also helped the market risk tone, which underpinned the Australian dollar’s perceived risk currency and contributed to the currency pair gains.  

Apart from this, the broad-based U.S. dollar selling bias, triggered by the cautious mood of traders ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, also supported the currency pair. The AUD/USD currency pair is currently trading at 0.7329 and consolidating in the range between 0.7288 – 0.7330.

The market trading sentiment recently got the lift after the positive news from the University Of Pittsburgh School Of Medicine, suggesting that the experts produced the strongest antibody component for the coronavirus, tested over animals. Meanwhile, the Trump administration stepped back from its plans for importing cotton and tomato products from China’s Xinjiang region. This, in turn, boosted further the market trading tone. 

Furthermore, the U.S. and China’s positive data, which suggests gradual recoveries in global economics, also boosted the market trading tone. Detail Suggested, China’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales surpassed forecasts for August, the U.S. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index also recovered to 17.00 and pleased the optimists. This, in turn, underpinned the perceived risk currency Australian dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains.  

On the contrary, the uncertainties over the much-awaited fiscal package remain on the play as both sides do not show any clues on it. Meanwhile, the rising COVID-19 cases globally continue to fuel worries concerning the global economic outlook. This gloomy factor could be considered as the key factor that cap further gains in the currency pair.

Looking ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on Japan’s trade numbers and Aussie housing data. Whereas, investors are also looking to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, scheduled to take place on the day. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s Current Account and the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) will also key to watch. All in all, the updates surrounding the Brexit, virus, and US-China tussle will not lose their importance. 


The AUD/USD pair continues to encounter resistance at the 0.7344 mark, and an upward crossover of 0.7344 mark can drive bullish bias unto 0.7412 and 0.7450 level today. On the downside, the support continues to linger at 0.7245 and 0.7149 level. Bullish bias appears powerful today; nevertheless, the focus will remain on the U.S. FOMC and Fed Fund Rate today. 

Entry Price – Buy 0.73241

Stop Loss – 0.72841

Take Profit – 0.73641

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

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Forex Daily Topic Forex Price Action

Trendline Trading: A Trendline forming with a Tiny Slope

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate the formation of a down-trending Trendline. A trendline can be formed with a double top or double bottom as well. However, double top’s resistance or double bottom’s support may not be horizontal. Let us find out how they may look in the chart.

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate the formation of a down-trending Trendline. A trendline can be formed with a double top or double bottom as well. However, double top’s resistance or double bottom’s support may not be horizontal. Let us find out how they may look in the chart.

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate the formation of a down-trending Trendline. A trendline can be formed with a double top or double bottom as well. However, double top’s resistance or double bottom’s support may not be horizontal. Let us find out how they may look in the chart.

The chart shows that the price heads towards the South with moderate bearish pressure. The last candle comes out as a bearish engulfing candle closing well below the last swing low. The sellers may wait for the price to consolidate or make a bullish correction to go short.

The chart produces two bullish candles. The price has a rejection from the zone where it had a rejection earlier. The last rejection does not come from horizontal support, but it looks adjacent to that. Thus, it can be considered as a double top’s resistance zone.

The price heads towards the South by making a breakout at the last swing low. It produces a bullish inside bar. If the chart produces a bearish reversal candle, the sellers may go short below the last swing low. Let us proceed to find out what happens next.

The price gets bearish by making a breakout at the last swing low. Look at the last three candles. The combination of these three candles is called Morning Star. It seems that the price may make a long bullish correction. Can you guess where the price may find its next resistance?

We can draw a down-trending trendline here by using those points of the double top. Look at the price action around the trendline’s resistance. The last candle comes out as a bullish candle with an upper shadow. A bearish reversal candle at the trendline’s resistance may drive the price towards the South again.

The trendline’s resistance produces a bearish engulfing candle. It has a long lower shadow, though. The sellers may go short below the last candle’s lowest low. Let us find out what the price does.

As expected, the price makes a strong bearish move and makes a new lower low. Thus, the sellers may wait again for the price to go towards the trendline’s resistance and get a bearish reversal candle to go short in the pair. In a word, a very valid trendline is in play in this chart. Do you remember how it has started? It has started from a point that does not seem to form a trendline. The slope has been tiny, making it difficult to spot out. However, the market often produces such a trendline with a tiny slope, which shall be taken into account by the trendline traders.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, September 16 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on FOMC Fed Fund! 

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate, which is not expected to show a rate change but will help us understand U.S. economic situation and policymakers’ stance on it. Besides, the Inflation reports from the U.K. and Eurozone are also likely to drive some price action during the European session today.

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate, which is not expected to show a rate change but will help us understand U.S. economic situation and policymakers’ stance on it. Besides, the Inflation reports from the U.K. and Eurozone are also likely to drive some price action during the European session today.

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate, which is not expected to show a rate change but will help us understand U.S. economic situation and policymakers’ stance on it. Besides, the Inflation reports from the U.K. and Eurozone are also likely to drive some price action during the European session today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.18461 after placing a high of 1.19003 and a low of 1.18393. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. After rising for four consecutive days, the EUR/USD pair fell on Tuesday amid renewed safe-haven appeal for the U.S. dollar despite the strong Eurozone data. The EUR/USD turned negative for the day as the greenback managed to trim losses versus Euro as the latest statement from WTO weighed down the risk sentiment.

On Tuesday, the World Trade Organization ruled that the U.S. tariffs imposed on Chinese goods in 2018 that led to trade war were inconsistent with international trade rules. The WTO said that the U.S. did not provide evidence that its claims of China’s unfair technology theft and state aid justified the border taxes. 

The U.S. condemned and called WTO inadequate to the task of confronting China while Chinese officials cheered the ruling. Due to its safe-haven status on such news and weighed on EUR/USD pair on Tuesday, the U.S. dollar gained due to its safe-haven status.

On the data front, at 11:45 GMT, the French Final CPI in August remained flat with the expectations of -0.1%. At 14:00 GMT, the ZEW Economic Sentiment for Eurozone rose in September to 73.9 from the forecasted 63.0 and Euro. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment in September also rose to 77.4 from the forecasted 69.7 and supported the single currency. These positive reports from Eurozone gave the Euro strength and capped further losses in EUR/USD pair.

On the U.S. front, the Empire State Manufacturing Index for August rose to 17.0 from the projected 6.2 and supported the U.S. dollar that added further losses in EUR/USD pair. The Import Prices in August also advanced to 0.9% from the anticipated 0.5% and supported the losses of the EUR/USD pair.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) erased its previous losses and rose to 93.00 and was up by 0.6% on Tuesday. On the other hand, the Euro was weak against the U.S. dollar; hence, the pair EUR/USD came under pressure. Another factor involved in the sudden fall of EUR/USD pair prices was the World Health Organization’s latest warning. The WHO warned on Monday that Europe would face a rising death toll from the coronavirus during the autumn months as the number of daily infections worldwide reached a high record. This raised the fears and weighed on risk sentiment that dragged the EUR/USD pair on the downside.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1821 1.1861 1.1883
1.1799 1.1923
1.1760 1.1945

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EURUSD pair is bouncing off the support level of 1.1835 level, and now it’s trading at 1.1845 level. For now, the EUR/USD may find support at 1.1815 level, and above this, the continuation of a bullish trend may lead EUR/USD price until 1.1903 level. Bearish correction can be seen until 1.1815 and 1.1764 support levels.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.28885 after placing a high of 1.29262 and a low of 1.28145. Overall the movement of the GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair on Tuesday rose and extended its previous day’s bullish track on the back of positive macroeconomic data from the U.K. despite the strong rebound of the U.S. dollar in the market. However, the gains were limited as the issue of the internal market bill was still intact.

The GBP/USD pair rose on the strong U.K. jobs data on Tuesday when at 11:00 GMT, the Claimant Count Change from the U.K. dropped in August to 73.7K from the forecasted 99.5K and supported a single currency, the British Pound.

The Average earning Index for the quarter came in as -1.0% against the forecasted -1.3% and supported the British Pound that helped GBP/USD to gain traction. The Unemployment Rate in July remained flat with expectations of 4.1%.

The strong jobs report from the U.K. gave strength to the local currency Sterling and helped the pair rise for the second consecutive day. 

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar was also strong on the board after the WTO ruled the U.S. tariffs as illegal on Chinese goods imposed in 2018 and triggered the US-China trade war. The U.S. dollar’s safe-haven status supported the greenback and the capped further gains in GBP/USD pair on Tuesday.

Moreover, the mixed U.S. macroeconomic data also helped the GBP/US pair to post gains on Tuesday. At 17:30 GMT, the Import Prices in August rose by 0.9% from the forecasted 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. While, at18:15 GMT, the Industrial Production from the U.S. in August fell to 0.4% from the forecasted 1.2% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Capacity Utilization Rate also dropped to 71.4% from the expected 71.7% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that ultimately supported the GBP/USD pair’s strength on board.

Furthermore, the concerns related to the availability of coronavirus testing in the country have been raised as the hospital staff has warned about the situation. However, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has unveiled an “Operation Moonshot” that aimed to test 10 million people every day for the coronavirus and restore life to normal by winter.

The U.K. also struggled to impose the latest “rule of six” limit on social gathering as the crime minister urged neighbors to report for any suspected breach of the new rule. This comes after the U.K.’s reproduction or R number escalated between 1 and 1.2 for the first time since March. These ongoing virus updates also capped further upside momentum in GBP/USD pairs.

However, on the Brexit front, the main sticking point, for the time being, was that whether the U.K. will go back on its word over the custom territory in Northern Ireland. The Internal Market bill is undervotes through the House of Commons and the House of Lords. It is not clear whether the bill will pass, but it will break the international law if it does. A deal between the E.U. and the U.K. will still be possible, but it would represent a lack of trust and could impact the future relationship of E.U. & U.K.

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.2825 1.2876 1.2937
1.2763 1.2989
1.2712 1.3050

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded sharply lower at 1.2843 level, and now it’s forming a Doji candle, which may trigger buying in the GBP/USD pair. On the higher side, the Sterline may soar to target 1.2928 level, and even above this, the next target for Sterling can be 1.3033 level. The MACD and EMA are still supporting a selling bias; therefore, we should be looking to take selling entry below 1.2928 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.440 after placing a high of 105.812 and 105.299. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bearish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair extended its losses and dropped to its 2-weeks lowest level near 105.200 ahead of the FOMC meeting. The U.S. Dollar Index fell to 92.85 on Tuesday and lost 0.22% as the U.S.’s major equities were higher with the S&P 500 up by 0.7%.

The USD/JPY pair came under fresh pressure after the latest comments from WTO and WHO on Tuesday. China’s upbeat data also boosted risk sentiment, but the market traders ignored it, and the pair USD/JPY continued its downward movement. On Tuesday, the World Trade Organization ruled that the tariffs imposed in 2018 on Chinese goods by the United States were inconsistent with the international rules. This raised the uncertainty and safe-haven appeal, and the Japanese Yen gained traction that ultimately weighed on the USD/JPY pair.

The top American trade Ambassador, Robert Lighthizer, said that the U.S. must be allowed to defend itself against unfair trade practices and that WTO was inadequate with its task to confront China. Whereas, Chinese officials cheered the ruling by WTO.

 On the other hand, on Monday, the World Health Organization warned that Europe would see a rise in the daily number of COVID-19 deaths in October and November as the rising number of coronavirus cases worldwide was not slowing down. This also weighed on risk sentiment, and the Japanese Yen gained traction that led to downward momentum in the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales for the year advanced in August and supported the hopes of economic recovery. This supported the risk sentiment and capped further losses in the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

On the data front, at 17:30 GMT, the Empire State Manufacturing Index in September rose to 17.0 from the expected 6.2 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Import Prices in August also rose to 0.9% from the forecasted 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. 

At 18:15 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from the U.S. in August dropped to 71.4% from the forecasted 71.7% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported the downward momentum of the USD/JPY pair. The Industrial Production in July also dropped to 0.4% from the forecasted 1.2% and the previous 3.5% and weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar that supported the losses of the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday. 

Furthermore, the FOMC meeting for September has started on Tuesday, and it will be concluded on Wednesday with the speech of Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve. The market participants are waiting for his speech to find fresh clues about the economic condition and further monetary policy decisions by the U.S. government. Hence, the local currency remained under pressure ahead of it and kept weighing the USD/JPY currency pair. In July, industrial production also dropped to 0.4% from the forecasted 1.2% and the previous 3.5% and weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar that supported the losses of the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday. 

Furthermore, the FOMC meeting for September has started on Tuesday, and it will be concluded on Wednesday with the speech of Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve. The market participants are waiting for his speech to find fresh clues about the economic condition and further monetary policy decisions by the U.S. government. Hence, the local currency remained under pressure ahead of it and kept weighing the USD/JPY currency pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.2100 105.5200 105.7500
104.9800 106.0600
104.6700 106.2800

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY currency pair continues to drop to test the

the double bottom support area of 105.250 level. Recently on the 4-hour timeframe, the USD/JPY pair is forming a bullish engulfing candle that’s followed by the bearish candles, suggesting that sellers are exhausted, and the bulls enter the market now. The USD/JPY pair may bounce off over 105.250 level to complete the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 105.545 and 61.8% Fibonacci level of 105.750 level. Later today, the U.S. Fed Fund Rate will remain in the highlights. Therefore, we should be cautious with the trades that we open, and in fact, we should try to close them ahead of the news release. Good luck! 

 

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/JPY Selling Bias Dominates – Quick Update on Signal! 

The USD/JPY closed at 105.730 after placing a high of 106.164 and a low of 105.547. The USD/JPY pair finally found some specific direction to follow and moved in the downward trend amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. However, the improved risk sentiment around the market capped further downward movement in the currency pair.

The USD/JPY closed at 105.730 after placing a high of 106.164 and a low of 105.547. The USD/JPY pair finally found some specific direction to follow and moved in the downward trend amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. However, the improved risk sentiment around the market capped further downward movement in the currency pair.

The USD/JPY closed at 105.730 after placing a high of 106.164 and a low of 105.547. The USD/JPY pair finally found some specific direction to follow and moved in the downward trend amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. However, the improved risk sentiment around the market capped further downward movement in the currency pair.

The greenback came under selling pressure ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee’s meeting. The meeting is due to start on Tuesday and will conclude with the comments from Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech. The speech is expected to provide further decisions of the Federal Reserve related to average inflation targeting. The market participants are hoping that the Fed will remain dovish about its monetary policy on Wednesday.

The central bank seems to be satisfied with the interest rates being near-zero levels, and there will be no change in interest rates. However, the comments from Fed Chair related to further stimulus measures and monetary easing along with the inflation target will provide fresh clues about U.S. economic conditions. The U.S. dollar came under pressure as the House of Representatives have returned from summer break and the chances for the fifth round of stimulus measures to reach consensus have increased as talks would resume soon.

The weak U.S. dollar weighed heavily on the USD/JPY pair, and the pair dropped to 9 days the lowest level on Monday. Furthermore, the improved risk sentiment and the equity market also weighed heavily on the safe-haven Japanese Yen that provided some strength to the currency pair USD/JPY.

The U.S. equity rose on Monday after the Oxford University and AstraZeneca vaccine re-started its phase-3 trials and raised the hopes for economic recovery. The trials were paused due to some unexplained illness that was found in one of the participants last week. However, the trials were resumed and provided some strength to the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the statement by the World Health organization that in a single day, the record-high number of coronavirus cases were reported that raised fears for the resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic WHO reported that in the time of 24 hours, a record high of more than 307,000 cases was recorded globally which was the largest daily number since the pandemic started. This raised uncertainty in the market and supported the safe-haven Japanese yen that added further downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

On the data front, there was no release from the U.S. side, however, at 09:30 GMT, the Tertiary Industry Activity from Japan dropped to -0.5% in July from the forecasted 0.6% and weighed on the Japanese Yen. Whereas, at 09:33 GMT, the Revised Industrial Production from Japan in July rose to 8.7% from the forecasted 8.0% and supported the Japanese Yen that added further pressure on the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.


The USD/JPY currency pair has dropped sharply amid increased safe-haven appeal and weakness in the U.S. dollar. The pair fell from 106 to 105.650 level, and now it’s facing resistance at 105.795 level. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair may drop until 105.265.

Entry Price – Sell 105.574

Stop Loss – 105.974

Take Profit – 105.174

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, September 15 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Series of Events in Focus! 

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the U.K. labour market report along with EU ZEW Economic Sentiment and German ZEW Economic Sentiment that are forecasted to report negative figures. Later during the U.S. session, the U.S. Capacity Utilization Rate and Industrial Production m/m are expected to support greenback amid positive forecast.

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the U.K. labour market report along with EU ZEW Economic Sentiment and German ZEW Economic Sentiment that are forecasted to report negative figures. Later during the U.S. session, the U.S. Capacity Utilization Rate and Industrial Production m/m are expected to support greenback amid positive forecast.

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the U.K. labour market report along with EU ZEW Economic Sentiment and German ZEW Economic Sentiment that are forecasted to report negative figures. Later during the U.S. session, the U.S. Capacity Utilization Rate and Industrial Production m/m are expected to support greenback amid positive forecast.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.18633 after placing a high of 1.18877 and a low of 1.18316. The EUR/USD pair moved in an upward direction on Monday and extended its bullish streak for the 4th consecutive day on the back of a weak U.S. dollar and improved the global equity market along with the positive Eurozone economic data.

The S&P 500 futures were up by 1.2%, and Dow Jones Futures was up by 0.9% whereas the NASDAQ rose by 1.6%. The EUR/USD pair moved higher as the equities were marginally higher in Asia and Europe on the back of positive news from the vaccine side. The vaccine developed by Oxford and AstraZeneca has resumed its phase-3 trials, and this improved the market risk sentiment on the renewed hopes of potential vaccine development.

The same vaccine trials were stopped in the previous week after a participant was reported with an unexplained illness. However, the trials have been started this week again, and the hopes for economic recovery have returned with it that gave a push to EUR/USD prices on the upside.

Other than that, July’s Industrial Production from Eurozone showed an improvement to 4.1% against the forecasted 4.0% and supported the single currency Euro. The strong Euro then added further gains in the EUR/USD pair.

Moreover, the U.S. dollar weakness also played an important role in pushing the pair EUR/USD further on the upside. The U.S. dollar was weak on the board ahead of the upcoming Fed’s September monetary policy meeting this week. The two-day meeting of the FOMC (Federal Reserve Open Market Committee) will start on Tuesday and will be concluded by the comments from Jerome Powell on Wednesday.

The market participants are waiting for the comments from the Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday, and this has increased the selling pressure against the U.S. dollar. The weak U.S. dollar pushed the EUR. The USD pair is higher on Monday.

The U.S. dollar was under more pressure after the House of Representatives returned from summer break, and the hopes for reaching a consensus on the fifth round of stimulus measure increased. These hopes exerted further pressure on the U.S. dollar and added strength to the EUR/USD pair’s upward movement.

However, the gains in EUR/USD pair were capped after the WHO reported a record rise in the daily cases of coronavirus from across the globe. The organization said that 307,930 cases were recorded in a single day. This raised uncertainty around the market related to economic recovery and helped cap further losses in EUR/USD pair on Monday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1835 1.1862 1.1894
1.1803 1.1921
1.1776 1.1954

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EURUSD pair has violated the double top resistance level of 1.1885 level, and now it’s trading at 1.1895 level. For now, the EUR/USD may find support at 1.1885 level, and above this, a continuation of a bullish trend may lead EUR/USD price until 1.1916 level. Bearish correction can be seen until 1.1885 and 1.1870 before continuation of further buying trend in the EUR/USD.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.28450 after placing a high of 1.2919 and a low of 1.27705. The pair GBP/USD rose in the first trading session on Monday, and after that, it converted its direction in the late trading session and lost some of its daily gains. The rise in prices of the GBP/USD pair on Monday was due to a weak U.S. dollar and improved risk sentiment. 

However, the Pound eased from session highs on Monday as Prime Minister Boris Johnson continued to make a case for a controversial bill that threatens to break the terms of the post-Brexit deal with the European Union the following vote later today.

The U.S. dollar came under fresh selling pressure on Monday after the equities rose in Asian and European session due to positive news from the vaccine front. The AstraZeneca and Oxford vaccine resumed its vaccine’s phase-3 trials after they were paused due to an unexplained illness found in one of the shareholders last week. 

The resumed trials of the long-awaited vaccine raised hopes for economic recovery and risk sentiment and helped the risk perceived British Pound to gain traction and move the GBP/USD pair on the upside.

However, the GBP/USD pair came under pressure ahead of the parliament vote on the internal market bill when Boris Johnson suggested that the legislation was needed to avoid a situation in which the E.U. counterparts seriously believe that they had the power to break up the U.K.

The expectations are high that the bill will pass the first parliamentary process despite the several party members of the Tory government have refused to back the bill. Furthermore, the upward movement of the Pound was short lives ahead of the Bank of England’s meeting later this week. Market participants have suggested that the central bank would welcome further easing in November and would renew its cautious outlook on the economy.

The hopes for further easing also weighed on GBP/USD pair and capped further gains in the currency pair at the starting day of the week in the absence of any macroeconomic data from both sides.

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.2774 1.2847 1.2919
1.2702 1.2992
1.2629 1.3063

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded sharply lower at 1.2843 level, and now it’s forming a Doji candle, which may trigger buying in the GBP/USD pair. On the higher side, the Sterline may soar to target 1.2928 level, and even above this, the next target for Sterling can be 1.3033 level. The MACD and EMA are still supporting a selling bias; therefore, we should be looking to take selling entry below 1.2928 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair failed to halt its Asian session bearish moves and witnessed some further selling moves near 105.90 level mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the doubts over the next round of the U.S. fiscal stimulus measures. Moreover, the upbeat market sentiment, backed by the recently positive coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine news, also weighed on the safe-haven U.S. dollar, which ultimately dragged the currency pair below 106.00 level. However, the risk-on market sentiment also undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen and became the critical factor that helped the USD/JPY currency pair to limits its deeper losses. 

On the contrary, the fears of a no-deal Brexit and the Sino-American tussle keep challenging the market risk-on tone, which might suffer the currency pair into deeper losses. 

The ongoing impasse over the next round of the U.S. fiscal stimulus or the upbeat market sentiment, not to forget the record single-day increase in COVID-19 cases, these all factors tend to undermine the broad-based U.S. dollar. The U.S. Senate rejected a Republican bill that would have provided around $300 billion in new coronavirus aid. Democrats voted to block the law as they have been pushing for more funding to control the economic downturn that led the coronavirus pandemic.

Despite the lingering doubts over the U.S. economic recovery and the intensifying tension between the world’s two biggest economies, the market players continue to cheer the optimism about the coronavirus treatment. These hopes fueled after the AstraZeneca’s showed readiness to restart the third phase of coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine trials. 

This, in turn, the broad-based U.S. dollar edged lower on the day as the lack of progress over the U.S. aid package continuously destroying hopes for a quick economic recovery. Meanwhile, the weaker tone surrounding the U.S. Treasury bond yields further weakened the already weaker sentiment surrounding the dollar. At the US-China front, the rising tensions between the United States and China as China’s Commerce Ministry said that it launched an anti-subsidy investigation on certain glycol ethers imports from the U.S., starting September 14.

Besides this, China announced that Beijing had sent a note detailing reciprocal restrictions on the U.S. Embassy and consulates on Friday. These moves came after the U.S. sanctions on Chinese individuals, which fuels worries about worsening US-China relations. These fears keep challenging the market risk-on tone and might suffer the currency pair into deeper losses.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.4500 105.8300 106.1200
105.1600 106.5000
104.7800 106.7800

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY currency pair has dropped sharply amid increased safe-haven appeal and weakness in the U.S. dollar. The pair fell from 106 to 105.650 level and now it’s facing resistance at 105.795 level. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair may drop until 105.265. Let’s consider opening a sell trade below 105.750 to target 105.450 and 105.250 level as the MACD and RSI also signalling selling bias. Good luck! 

 

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/USD Bullish Momentum Continues – Update on Buying Signal!  

During Monday’s early European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair successfully extended its previous session bullish trend and kept gaining its positive traction around above the 1.1850 level due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. dollar weakness could be associated with the massive U.S. tech selloff. Moreover, the upbeat market sentiment, supported by optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus, also weighed on the safe-haven USD and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

During Monday’s early European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair successfully extended its previous session bullish trend and kept gaining its positive traction around above the 1.1850 level due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. dollar weakness could be associated with the massive U.S. tech selloff. Moreover, the upbeat market sentiment, supported by optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus, also weighed on the safe-haven USD and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

During Monday’s early European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair successfully extended its previous session bullish trend and kept gaining its positive traction around above the 1.1850 level due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. dollar weakness could be associated with the massive U.S. tech selloff. Moreover, the upbeat market sentiment, supported by optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus, also weighed on the safe-haven USD and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

On the other hand, the French FinMin Le Maire’s positive comments over the French economy also gave some support to the shared currency, which pushed the currency pair intra-day high. Meanwhile, the shared currency was also being supported by Thursday’s decision of the European Central Bank (ECB). Apart from this, the investors seem to be avoiding the rise in coronavirus infections across the old continent. The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1867 and consolidating in the range between the 1.1831 – 1.1869.

 

The sentient around the shared currency is remained supportive by the comment from the ECB’s Villeroy that “We don’t target exchange rate”. Besides, the central bank’s President Christine Lagarde’s positive statement that Eurozone’s domestic demand had recorded a notable recovery from low levels also played a key role in underpinning the shared currency.

Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said in an interview with France 2 television on the day that “The French economy is in the right direction.” He further added that “French economy could do better than 11 percent contraction currently forecast for 2020”. Thus, The common currency recently got some extra support from the above comments and hit the intra-day high level around above 1.1865.

On the other hand, the positive tone around the market trading sentiment undermined the safe-haven U.S. dollar, giving support to the currency pair. Despite the fears of no-deal Brexit and the Sino-American tussle, not to forget the record single-day increase in COVID-19 cases, the market trading sentiment extended its early-day positive tone and remained supportive by the weekend positive headlines suggesting the AstraZeneca’s restart of the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine trials. As in result, the S&P 500 Futures add 0.73% to 3,347 as of now. Considering the risk-barometers’ positive tone, the market’s safe-haven demand undermined, eventually weighing on the safe-haven U.S. dollar.

The reasons for the risk-on market trading sentiment could be attributed to the positive headlines concerning the coronavirus vaccine. The AstraZeneca showed readiness for resuming its vaccine trials after a brief “routine” pause. At the same time, Pfizer is confident about getting the pandemic’s cure by the year’s end.

As a result, the broad-based U.S. dollar stopped its overnight gains and started to flash red. Moreover, the U.S. dollar losses could also be associated with a selloff rally in U.S. tech stocks overnight. This, in turn, fueled worries about the recovery. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar kept the EUR/USD currency pair higher. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a bucket of other currencies dropped by 0.16% to 93.192 by 11:57 PM ET (4:57 AM GMT).


Looking ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on updates surrounding the Brexit, virus, and US-CHina tussle. Whereas, investors are also looking to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting scheduled to take place on Wednesday. The EUR/USD continues to trade at 1.1835 level as the ECB decided to leave its interest rate unchanged in its Monetary policy meeting.  On the higher side, the pair may find resistance at 1.1839 level and above this, the pair may find the next resistance at 1.1860 level along with support at 1.1828 level. Below 1.1828, the EUR/USD may find the next support at 1.1797 and 1.1755 level.

Entry Price – Buy 1.18562

Stop Loss – 1.18162

Take Profit – 1.18962

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

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Forex Signals

Gold’s Choppy Session in Play – Brace for Selling Signal! 

During Monday’s early Asian trading session, the yellow metal prices extended its halt its overnight bearish bias and gathered some pace around above the 1,950 level. The U.S. tech stocks continue to fall, led once again by NASDAQ, which tends to help the gold prices to stay bid. However, the weaker bias around the U.S. dollar was mostly driven by the lack of safe-haven demand. Hence, the market trading sentiment was being supported by the news suggesting the AstraZeneca’s restart of the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine trials, after stopping it during the last week. In the meantime, the risk-on sentiment was further bolstered by the comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers suggesting further easy money days. These positive headlines became the key factor that kept the lid on any further yellow metal gains. The market players did not give any major heed to the Sino-US on-going tussle and Brexit looming worries across the pond. 

During Monday’s early Asian trading session, the yellow metal prices extended its halt its overnight bearish bias and gathered some pace around above the 1,950 level. The U.S. tech stocks continue to fall, led once again by NASDAQ, which tends to help the gold prices to stay bid. However, the weaker bias around the U.S. dollar was mostly driven by the lack of safe-haven demand. Hence, the market trading sentiment was being supported by the news suggesting the AstraZeneca’s restart of the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine trials, after stopping it during the last week. In the meantime, the risk-on sentiment was further bolstered by the comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers suggesting further easy money days. These positive headlines became the key factor that kept the lid on any further yellow metal gains. The market players did not give any major heed to the Sino-US on-going tussle and Brexit looming worries across the pond. 

During Monday’s early Asian trading session, the yellow metal prices extended its halt its overnight bearish bias and gathered some pace around above the 1,950 level. The U.S. tech stocks continue to fall, led once again by NASDAQ, which tends to help the gold prices to stay bid. However, the weaker bias around the U.S. dollar was mostly driven by the lack of safe-haven demand. Hence, the market trading sentiment was being supported by the news suggesting the AstraZeneca’s restart of the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine trials, after stopping it during the last week. In the meantime, the risk-on sentiment was further bolstered by the comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers suggesting further easy money days. These positive headlines became the key factor that kept the lid on any further yellow metal gains. The market players did not give any major heed to the Sino-US on-going tussle and Brexit looming worries across the pond. 

The yellow metal price is trading at 1,946.49 and consolidating in the range between 1,937.40 – 1,951.72. The market traders seem cautious to place any strong position ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, which is scheduled to take place on Wednesday. Despite the fears of no-deal Brexit and the Sino-American tussle, not to forget the record single-day increase in COVID-19 cases, the market trading sentiment extended its early-day positive tone and remained supportive by the weekend positive headlines suggesting the AstraZeneca’s restart of the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine trials. The S&P 500 Futures add 0.73% to 3,347 as of now. Considering the risk-barometers’ positive tone, the market’s safe-haven demand undermined, eventually weighing on safe-haven metal prices.

The reasons for the risk-on market trading sentiment could be attributed to the positive headlines concerning the coronavirus vaccine. The AstraZeneca showed readiness for resuming its vaccine trials after a brief “routine” pause, while the Pfizer is confident about getting the cure of the pandemic by the year’s end. Furthermore, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data flashed another positive signal, after the Producer Price Index (PPI), for the Federal Reserve policymakers to meet this week. This exerted an extra positive impact on the market trading sentiment. Moreover, the market trading sentiment was further bolstered by the latest positive report that Libya’s oil industry will reopen after almost 8-months of a stop to exports.  

The fears of no-deal Brexit and the Sino-American tussle keep challenging the positive market tone across the ocean, which might help the yellow-metal prices. At the US-China front, the tensions between Sino-US remain on the card amid China’s retaliation to the U.S. sanctions on diplomats. Meanwhile, the looming decision on TikTok also keeps the world’s two largest economies at the slippery track.

At the coronavirus front, the on-going rise in COVID-19 cases globally continues to fuel worries concerning the global economic outlook for the foreseeable future. The World Health Organization (WHO) recorded a record single-day hike in COVID-19 cases by 307,930 in 24 hours. Apart from this, Politico’s news that Iran’s preparing to take revenge for their soldier Qassem Soleimani adds pressure to the market trading sentiment. Furthermore, New Zealand’s extension of lockdown restrictions until September 21 with stricter conditions in Auckland also ap further gains in the equity market. This, in turn, might helps the safe-heaven gold prices.

On the flip side, the news that Tropical Storm Sally is expected to become a hurricane on Monday may affect a region stretching from Morgan City, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. Thus, these gloomy headlines might support the gold prices by undermining the market trading sentiment. Looking ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on updates surrounding the Brexit, virus, and US-CHina tussle. Whereas, investors are also looking to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting scheduled to take place on Wednesday.


Gold is trading at 1947 mark, meeting the next resistance at 1,950. On the 4 hour chart, XAU/USD has set a double top pattern that’s expected to drive gold prices lower unto 1,942 mark. Overall trading in gold is sideways in between 1,950 to 1,942 mark though, the destruction of this area may drive additional moves. On the higher side, resistance lingers at 1,958 and 1,966 while support lingers at 1,937 level. 

Entry Price – Sell 1947.44 

Stop Loss – 1953.44

Take Profit – 1939.94

Risk to Reward – 1:1.25

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$600/ +$750

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$60/ +$75

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

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Forex Signals

USD/CHF Depressed Near 1-1/2-Week Lows Below 0.9100 – Signal Update 

During the Friday’s Asian trading hours, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its previous day declining streak and took further offers below the 0.9100 level. Let me remind you, the currency pair extended this week’s rejection slide from the 0.9200 round-figure marks and saw some follow-through selling for the third-straight session on Friday. However, the reason for the bearish tone around the currency pair could be associated with the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered after the U.S. markets witnessed yet another stock selloff overnight. Apart from this, the upbeat market sentiment, supported by optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus, also undermined the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

During the Friday’s Asian trading hours, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its previous day declining streak and took further offers below the 0.9100 level. Let me remind you, the currency pair extended this week’s rejection slide from the 0.9200 round-figure marks and saw some follow-through selling for the third-straight session on Friday. However, the reason for the bearish tone around the currency pair could be associated with the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered after the U.S. markets witnessed yet another stock selloff overnight. Apart from this, the upbeat market sentiment, supported by optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus, also undermined the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

During the Friday’s Asian trading hours, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its previous day declining streak and took further offers below the 0.9100 level. Let me remind you, the currency pair extended this week’s rejection slide from the 0.9200 round-figure marks and saw some follow-through selling for the third-straight session on Friday. However, the reason for the bearish tone around the currency pair could be associated with the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered after the U.S. markets witnessed yet another stock selloff overnight. Apart from this, the upbeat market sentiment, supported by optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus, also undermined the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

On the contrary, the positive tone around the equity market also undermined the safe-haven Swiss franc. It became the factor that cap further downside momentum for the USD/CHF currency pair. Currently, the USD/CHF currency pair is currently trading at 0.9098 and consolidating in the range between 0.9080 – 0.9110.

It is worth mentioning that the broad-based U.S. dollar remained bearish through the first half of the trading action amid strong buying around the single currency, which remained supported by the report that ECB officials are growing more optimistic over the Eurozone economic outlook. Furthermore, the stronger tone surrounding the global equity markets also undermined the safe-haven U.S. dollar.

The market trading sentiment remained supported by the Indian and Chinese military group’s joint statement to ease the border tension. Besides this, the positive headlines over the receding coronavirus (COVID-19) led activity restrictions in Tokyo, and the record recovery in the BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index for the 3rd-quarter (Q3) also exerted a positive impact on the market sentiment. In the meantime, the optimism over the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine/treatment led by the positive comment from the Goldman Sachs that Pfizer’s candidate vaccine could be approved as early as October, boosted the risk sentiment. 

On the contrary, the positive around the equity markets also weakened the demand of safe-haven Swiss franc, which becomes the factor that caps further downside momentum for the USD/CHF currency pair.

The losses could be associated with the euro’s bullish momentum, led by the European Central Bank’s latest policy announcement. However, the U.S. dollar losses became the key factor that kept the currency pair under pressure. Across the ocean, the equity market’s optimism was unaffected by the intensified US-China tussle and Brexit concerns. At the US-China front, the Trump administration continues to keep TikTok on the sellers’ radar. In the meantime, the cancellation of over 1,000 visas of Chinese residents also irritates China. 

Moving on, the market traders will keep their eyes on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, which is expected 1.2% against 1.0% YoY. Moreover, the updates surrounding the Sino-US tussle and Brexit-related headline could not lose their importance.


On the technical front, the USD/CHF is trading with a bearish bias at 0.9091 level, facing immediate resistance at 0.9108 level. On the lower side, the USD/CHF may drop until the support level of 0.9055 level. The MACD and 50 EMA are in support of selling bias today. Check out the trade plan below: 

Entry Price – Sell 0.90897

Stop Loss – 0.91297

Take Profit – 0.90497

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, September 11 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Inflation Figures in Highlights

On the fundamental side, the eyes will remain on the U.S. Inflation and core inflation figures expected to underperform compared to previous figures. In this case, the U.S. dollar may trade with a bearish bias today.

On the fundamental side, the eyes will remain on the U.S. Inflation and core inflation figures expected to underperform compared to previous figures. In this case, the U.S. dollar may trade with a bearish bias today.

On the fundamental side, the eyes will remain on the U.S. Inflation and core inflation figures expected to underperform compared to previous figures. In this case, the U.S. dollar may trade with a bearish bias today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18143 after placing a high of 1.19173 and a low of 1.17981. The EUR/USD pair rose on Thursday to its highest for 6 days on the back of optimistic comments from the European Central Bank. The currency pair recovered much of its recent losses following the ECB’s policy decision and the weakened US dollar by US job stats.

On the data front, the French Industrial Production was released at 11:45 GMT, and was declined to 3.8% from the forecasted 5.1% and weighed on Euro. At 13:00 GMT, the Italian Industrial Production advanced to 7.4% from the expected 3.6% and supported a single currency that took the EUR/USD pair higher.

The European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde took a modestly upbeat view on Europe’s recovery from a historic recession on Thursday and played down the concerns about Euro’s strength. She also disappointed the hopes for the more stimulus from the European government.

Lagarde signaled higher underlying inflation and slightly upgraded the bank’s 2020 growth forecast on the back of strong rebound inactivity. In response to the latest 8% rise of the Euro against the US dollar, the President of ECB took a benign view on the currency and simply said that the bank would monitor carefully exchange rate movements.

Analysts were highly awaiting this response but these simple comments disappointed them as these were the weakest possible expression of concern. She said that exchange rates will carefully monitor and the matter was being discussed in the governing council. Investors had expectations of tougher language but the simple comments that were keen to avoid a currency war actually firmed the Euro. The ECB’s rate-setting Governing Council said that they judged that the currency was broadly in line with economic fundamentals and they feared any hint of a currency war with the United States.

In response to deflation concerns, the ECB President Lagarde said that deflation pressures had eased since June and that the weak inflation levels could be attributed to low energy prices. And for the high value of the Euro, she said that there was no need for the markets to overreact to the currency gains.

With the strong Euro amid hawkish comments from ECB, the EUR/USD pair rose above 1.191 level on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the US dollar was also weak onboard that added further strength in the pair’s gains. At 17:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from the previous week rose to 884K against the expected 838K and weighed on the US dollar. The rise in unemployment benefit claims raised concerns for economic recovery and weighed on local currency and gave support to the EUR/USD pair.

However, the gains in the EUR/USD pair failed to hold position and dropped in the late trading session and lost most of its gains on the back of rising concerns over the coronavirus cases. Western Europe surpassed the US in new daily COVID-19 infections and was re-emerging as a global hot spot after bringing the pandemic under control in the summer. 

The rising coronavirus cases in European countries exerted negative pressure on the local currency due to economic recovery concerns and the pair reversed its direction.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1770 1.1844 1.1888
1.1726 1.1962
1.1653 1.2006

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD continues to trade at 1.1835 level as the ECB decided to leave it’s interest rate unchanged in its monetary policy meeting. On the higher side, the pair may find resistance at 1.1839 level, and above this, the pair may find the next resistance at 1.1860 level along with support at 1.1828 level. Below 1.1828, the EUR/USD may find the next support at 1.1797 and 1.1755 level.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.28051 after placing a high of 1.30350 and a low of 1.27724. Overall the movement of the GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair moved on a track for its biggest weekly fall in nearly six months on Thursday as the European Union threatened to pursue legal action against the U.K. if it proceeds with the bill that aims to undermine the Brexit-withdrawal agreement.

The GBP/USD pair fell by 1.56% on Thursday to its lowest since July 27. The E.U. demanded the British government drop its internal market bill by the end of the month or risk jeopardizing negotiations and legal action.

The U.K. government published the internal bill on Wednesday that seeks to create common rules that apply across the U.K., including England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales. 

The bill would likely clash with the terms agreed on Withdrawal agreement requiring that Northern Ireland follow E.U. rules in the post-Brexit period to avoid a hard border with the Republican of Ireland. However, The Cabinet minister Michael Gove insisted the U.K. will not withdraw the bill. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has already said that the U.K. will leave the E.U. without a deal if Europe and the U.K. failed to reach an agreement by October 15. If no-deal is secured by then, the U.K. will follow the World Trade Organization’s trade rules. 

The hopes of any progress in upcoming Brexit-deal talks faded after the E.U.’s latest threat, and the hopes for a “hard Brexit” have increased. This weighed heavily on GBP/USD pair on Thursday, and the pair fell to its multi month’s low level.

On the data front, at 04:01 GMT, the RICS House Price Balance rose to 44% against the forecasted 23% and supported GBP/USD pair. At 06:30 GMT, the C.B. Leading Index dropped to -0.3% in July from the previous 0.0%. From the U.S. side, the Core PPI in August rose to 0.4% from the forecasted 0.2% and supported the U.S. dollar that added further pressure on GBP/USD pair. The Producer Price Index in August rose to 0.3% against the projected 0.2% and supported the U.S. dollar that added in the losses of the GBP/USD pair on Thursday. At 19:00 GMT, the Final Wholesale Inventories in July came in as -0.3% against the projected -0.1% and supported the U.S. dollar that took the GBP/USD prices further towards the downside.

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.2706 1.2871 1.2969
1.2608 1.3134
1.2443 1.3232

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded sharply lower at 1.2843 level, and now it’s forming a Doji candle, which may trigger buying in the GBP/USD pair. On the higher side, the Sterline may soar to target 1.2928 level, and even above this, the next target for Sterling can be 1.3033 level. The MACD and EMA are still supporting a selling bias; therefore, we should be looking to take selling entry below 1.2928 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair stopped its early-day bearish rally and drew some modest bids around above 106.20 level, mainly due to the risk-on market. However, the positive tone around the equity market was supported by the news of receding tension between India and China, and Tokyo’s optimism over easing lockdown restriction also favor the market trading sentiment, which eventually undermined the Japanese yen currency and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

The broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, in the wake of low safe-haven demand, becomes the major factor that kept the presure on any further gains in the currency pair. Meanwhile, the on-going US-China tussle over several issues, the risk of a no-deal Brexit, and delay in the U.S. stimulus keep challenging the market trading sentiment, which might cap further gains in the currency pair. The USD/JPY is trading at 106.19 and consolidating in the range between 106.08 – 106.20.

The market trading sentiment was bolstered by optimism over a possible vaccine and treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus. After the Goldman Sachs, these hopes fueled that Pfizer’s candidate said that Pfizer’s candidate vaccine could be approved as early as October. In the meantime, the news of receding tensions between India and China and the optimism over the easing coronavirus (COVID-19)-led lockdown restrictions also boosted the market trading sentiment. This in, turn, undermined the safe-ave Japanese yen and extended support to the currency pair. 

The reason for the upbeat sentiment could also be associated with record recovery in the BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index for the third quarter (Q3). The record recovery in the BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index for the third quarter (Q3), from -44.2 expected and -52.3 before +0.1, citing that the Japanese economy is up for a strong recovery. 

Across the ocean, the market trading sentiment rather unaffected by the intensified US-China tussle and Brexit issue. The Trump administration continues to keep TikTok on the sellers’ radar. In the meantime, the cancellation of over 1,000 visas of Chinese residents also irritates China. 

Also capping the gains could be the headlines suggesting that the Tokyo metropolitan government lowered its coronavirus alert by one level to 3 on Friday. This might underpin the local currency and dragged the currency pair down. The Japanese yen currency might also take clues from the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for August that recovered to -0.5% from -0.9% YoY.

The traders will keep their focus on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, which is expected 1.2% against 1.0% YoY. Moreover, the updates surrounding the Sino-US tussle, as well as Brexit related headline, could not lose their importance.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.9700 106.1400 106.3000
105.8200 106.4600
105.6500 106.6200

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is consolidating at 106.050, with a resistance mark of 106.480 level. An upward crossover of 106.480 level may extend further buying trend until the 106.840level, and the violation of this level can extend buying until the next resistance level of 107.150. On the downside, the safe-haven USD/JPY currency may gain support at 105.620 and 105.280. Let’s consider taking a sell trade below 106.024 level as the MACD and RSI also suggest selling bias. Good luck! 

 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, September 10 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – ECB Monetary Policy In Focus

It will be a big day for the European pairs as the European Central Bank is due to report it’s minimum bid rate along with the Press Conference to determine the monetary policy. Besides, the U.S. Unemployment Claims and PPI data will be the main market mover of the market.

It will be a big day for the European pairs as the European Central Bank is due to report it’s minimum bid rate along with the Press Conference to determine the monetary policy. Besides, the U.S. Unemployment Claims and PPI data will be the main market mover of the market.

It will be a big day for the European pairs as the European Central Bank is due to report it’s minimum bid rate along with the Press Conference to determine the monetary policy. Besides, the U.S. Unemployment Claims and PPI data will be the main market mover of the market.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18027 after placing a high of 1.18339 and a low of 1.17525. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The market sentiment was sour on Wednesday amid the pause in the AstraZeneca & Oxford University vaccine’s final clinical trials. The trials were paused due to an unexplained illness in one participant. This weighed on risk sentiment and kept the EUR/USD pair under pressure on Wednesday.

The much-awaited decision of the European Central Bank monetary policy will announce on Thursday, and the market participants have started to bets on it. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar surging due to increased pressure on its rivals dropped on Wednesday and caused a surge in EUR/USD pair.

The ECB is concerned about the appreciation in Euro and increased deflationary pressure and the uncertainty around Europe’s coronavirus situation. The bank is set to announce no changes in its upcoming monetary policy for the second month in September. The bank expanded it’s Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program with EUR 600 billion in June.

The interest rates on main refinancing operations are at 0.00%, on the marginal lending facility are at 0.25%, and the deposit facility is at -0.50%. All are expected to remain unchanged in this monetary policy meeting. The PEPP will also remain unchanged at EUR 1350 Billion. The speech from the ECB President Cristine Lagarde will remain under focus by traders to find fresh clues about the EUR/USD pair.

For August, the Eurozone inflation came in negative when the annualized consumer price index fell by 0.2% versus the July’s rise by 0.4% and raised concerns about the local economy. The impact of coronavirus has been rising as the coronavirus is surging in the Eurozone. To combat coronavirus’s economic impact, ECB expanded its balance sheet from 4500 B euros to 6424B euros. The long-term Eurozone inflation is also gloomy and shows a downward trend.

Traders await that the euro appreciation will remain under the focus of Lagarde’s speech, and measures that she will announce to cope with it will provide massive movements in EUR/USD prices on Thursday. The Eurozone economy outlook from the European Central Bank will also give clues on the EUR/USD pair.

On the U.S. side, the Consumer Credit in July dropped to 12.2B from the forecasted 12.9B and weighed on the U.S. dollar that helped EUR/USD move upward. EUR/USD pair posted gains after falling for three consecutive days on Wednesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1795 1.1820 1.1857
1.1758 1.1882
1.1733 1.1919

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD has recovered a bit to trade at 1.1820 level ahead of the ECB Monetary policy decision due to coming out during the late European session. ECB isn’t expected to change its rate; however, the press conference will be the EUR/USD pair’s main mover. On the higher side, the pair may find resistance at 1.1860 level along with support at 1.1797 level. Below 1.1797, the pair may drop towards 1.1755 level. Conversely, a bullish breakout of 1.1825 level can lead EUR/USD prices towards 1.1866.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.29986 after placing a high of 1.30231 and a low of 1.28847. Overall the movement of the GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. After falling for two consecutive days and posting massive losses, the GBP/USD pair dropped on Wednesday in an earlier trading session near the lowest level since July 28. However, in the late trading session, the pair successfully recovered its daily gains and reversed its direction and started posting gains.

The pair followed its previous day bearish trend in the early trading session on Wednesday that the new Internal Market Bill news from the U.K. Parliament pushed. The new bill was issued to protect the United Kingdom’s jobs after the transition period ends next December. 

The bill raised fears that it might impact the relationship between the U.K. and the E.U. It could re-write the parts of the Brexit withdrawal agreement related to the Northern Ireland protocol. In response to the new bill news, the E.U. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that breaching the singed withdrawal agreement would break the international law and undermine trust. This weighed on the local currency GBP and dragged the pair towards the lowest level since July 28.

However, the pair’s downward movement was further supported by the latest news that weighed on risk sentiment that AstraZeneca & Oxford University vaccine’s final clinical trials were paused after an unexplained illness was found in a participant.

Whereas, on the U.S. front, the U.S. dollar came under pressure on Wednesday after rising for the past few days on the back of weak rival currencies performance. The weakness in the U.S. dollar was ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday. The U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.1% on Wednesday to 93.16 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that supported the GBP/USD pair’s movement.

On the data front, the Consumer Credit for July dropped to 12.2B against the forecasted 12.9B and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further support to the GBP/USD pair. On Wednesday, PM Boris Johnson said that they must act to avoid another lockdown as virus cases were rising in England. He was referring to the new rule that restricts the gathering of more than six people. The new rule can issue fines or make arrests in case of breach of law.

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3079 1.3125 1.3196
1.3008 1.3242
1.2962 1.3313

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair has formed a Doji pattern over 1.2901 area, and the support level is extended by an upward trendline on four hourly timeframes. On the higher side, the pair may face immediate resistance at 1.3021, and above this, the Cable may head towards 61.8% Fibo level of 1.3154 level. Jobless claims data may play the role today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 106.174 after placing a high of 106.272 and a low of 105.785. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. After falling on Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair gained traction on Wednesday and started rising. The pair fell to 6 days lowest level on Wednesday in the early trading session but reversed its direction and moved upward on the back of the upbeat market sentiment.

The market mood improved on Wednesday and made it difficult for the safe-haven Japanese Yen to find demand and pushed the pair USD/JPY higher. After falling for three consecutive days, the equity market was raised on Wednesday with the S&P 500 index up by 1.85% and confirmed the risk-on market sentiment. The U.S. Treasury bond yields for a 10-year note also rose to 2.2% and supported the upward market sentiment.

Moreover, the U.S. Dollar Index also rose on Wednesday to 93.66 level the highest since August 12 and supported the upward U.S. dollar movement. 

However, the USD/JPY par gains were capped by multiple factors, including the US-China tussles and negative vaccine news.

On Wednesday, the long-awaited vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University stopped its final stage clinical trials due to an unexplained illness found in one of the participants. This news raised concerns over vaccines’ development and, ultimately, on the economic recovery and capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the rising tensions between the U.S. & China after the latest comments from President Donald Trump and his administration regarding the tech fight and bringing back the production to America raised fears for the phase-one deal completion. These tensions and the lingering fight on the South China Sea have weighed on market sentiment that undermined the risk sentiment and supported the Japanese Yen, ultimately capping further gains in the USD/JPY pair.

Moreover, the new Brexit worries after the U.K. introduced new potential internal law that could change the initial withdrawal agreement terms related to the Northern Ireland border, also weighed on risk sentiment. The uncertainty regarding a Brexit deal between the E.U. & U.K. also weighed on market sentiment and limited the USD/JPY pair’s gains.

On the data front, the M2 Money Stock for the year in Japan rose to 8.6% in August from 8.2% and supported the Japanese Yen that capped further gains in the USD/JPY pair. At 10:59 GMT, the Prelim Machine Tool Orders decreased by -23.3% in August compared to July’s -31.1%. On the U.S. front, the JOLTS Job Openings in July rose to 6.62M against the forecasted 6.05M and supported the U.S. dollar that added further support to the USD/JPY pair on Wednesday.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.9500 106.2700 106.6800
105.5500 106.9900
105.2300 107.4000

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Thursday, the USD/JPY is consolidating at 106.050, with a resistance mark of 106.480 level. An upward crossover of 106.480 level may extend further buying trend until the 106.840level, and the violation of this level can extend buying until the next resistance level of 107.150. On the downside, the safe-haven USD/JPY currency may gain support at 105.620 and 105.280. Let’s consider taking a sell trade below 106.024 level as the MACD and RSI also suggest selling bias. Good luck! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, September 09 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. China Conflict in Play! 

On the news front, the Bank of Canada Overnight Rate rate and Rate Statement will be in focus, and it may drive some price action in Canadian pairs. Elsewhere, we don’t have any major events that can drive sharp movements in the U.S. dollar related pairs. Let’s focus on technical levels.

On the news front, the Bank of Canada Overnight Rate rate and Rate Statement will be in focus, and it may drive some price action in Canadian pairs. Elsewhere, we don’t have any major events that can drive sharp movements in the U.S. dollar related pairs. Let’s focus on technical levels.

On the news front, the Bank of Canada Overnight Rate rate and Rate Statement will be in focus, and it may drive some price action in Canadian pairs. Elsewhere, we don’t have any major events that can drive sharp movements in the U.S. dollar related pairs. Let’s focus on technical levels.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The UR/USD pair was closed at 1.17734 after placing a high of 1.18273 and a low of 1.17654. The EUR/USD pair dropped on Tuesday and extended its bearish move for the 3rd consecutive day on the back of a strong U.S. dollar and ahead of ECB monetary policy meeting.

Recently ll eyes have turned towards the upcoming meeting of European Central Bank on Thursday to observe if they will do anything to push inflation pressure higher. Chief Economist Philip Lane has raised concerns over the high prices of local currency the last week. Though the currency has already come under pressure due to currency devaluation expectations or inflation, investors are still awaiting the words from ECB. The currency Euro is facing heavy pressure ahead of ECB’s monetary policy meeting and is weighing on EUR/USD for the past three days. The pair continued following the same pressure and dropped on Tuesday as well.

On the data front, 10:30 GMT, the French Final Private Payrolls for the quarter dropped to -0.8% from the projected -0.6%and weighed on Euro. At 11:00 GMT, the German Trade Balance showed a surplus of 18.0B against the expected 14.9B and supported Euro. At 11:45 GMT, the French Trade Balance was released that remained flat with the expectations of -7.0B. At 13:00 GMT, the Italian Retail Sales for July dropped to -2.2% from the projected 1.1% and weighed on Euro. At 14:00 GMT, the Final Employment Change for the quarter dropped to -2.9% from the forecasted -2.8% and weighed on Euro. The Revised GDP for the quarter from Eurozone dropped by -11.8% against the expected -12.1% and supported Euro. As most data came in against the single currency Euro, the EUR/USD pair came under fresh pressure and dropped on Tuesday to 8th day lowest level.

From the U.S. side, the NFIB Small Business Index was released at 15:00 GMT that advanced to 100.2 against the expected 99.0 and supported the U.S. dollar. The strong U.S. dollar added further pressure on EUR/USD pair and dragged the pair down.

Meanwhile, as the global coronavirus cases have surged to 27.3M, including 893,000 deaths, Spain has become the first nation in Western Europe to exceed half-million COVID-19 total infections. This also weighed on the local currency Euro and added in the currency pair losses.

The U.S. dollar was already strong because of its safe-haven status amid the rising US-China tensions after the tech fight escalated. 

The U.S. has announced tariffs of any American company forcing overseas production. The U.S. has also warned its companies not to work with any Chinese company or face sanctions. Whereas, the greenback was also strong because of the weakness of its rival currency like the Euro and GBP. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1753 1.1791 1.1817
1.1727 1.1855
1.1690 1.1881

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias around 1.1780 level, having immediate support at 1.1756 level that’s extended by a double bottom pattern. On the 4 hour timeframe, the violation of the 1.1756 level may extend the selling trend until the 1.1715 level. The EUR/USD may find resistance at 1.1862 and 1.1958 level. Bullish bias seems dominant today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.29806 after placing a high of 1.31697 and a low of 1.29798. Overall the movement of the GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. THE GBP/USD pair fell below 1.30 level on Tuesday at the lowest level since 30-July 2020. The pair extended its previous day bearish movement due to a fresh threat by Prime Minister Boris Johnson to leave the E.U. without any deal if progress in talks will not be made till October 15.

Johnson has said that there would need to be an agreement in place by the mid-October deadline when European Council convenes or warned that the U.K. would leave the negotiating table and follow the WTO rules.

However, the talks have become tough after the U.K. has already angered the E.U. members by unveiling plans to introduce a new law that would undermine the withdrawal agreement. Both parties signed the agreement into law and included all terms and conditions of the U.K.’s departure from the bloc.

The new bill aims to create common rules that would apply across the whole of the U.K. are expected to clash with the terms of the withdrawal agreement that requires the Northern Ireland to keep following E.U. rules in the post-Brexit period to avoid a hard border with the Republic of Ireland.

The talks have started on Tuesday between the E.U. chief negotiator Michel Barnier and U.K. chief negotiator David Frost. The U.K.’s controversial move about new law has made the E.U. angry, and the E.U. has said that it will be ready for a no-deal Brexit when the transition period ends on December 31. The British Pound suffered massively as the concerns raised ahead of Brexit talks and dropped below 1.30 level on Tuesday.

On the data front, at 04:01 GMT, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor for the year in August rose to 4.7% from the expected 3.5% and supported British Pound, but the traders ignored it as the focus was shifted towards Brexit talks. The U.S. dollar was also strong in the market due to positive data and safe-haven appeal and also weighed on GBP/USD currency pair. At 15:00 GMT, the NFIB Small Business Index advanced to 100.2 from the expected 99.0 and supported the U.S. dollar that added pressure on GBP/USD pair.

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.2918 1.3049 1.3118
1.2849 1.3249
1.2719 1.3318

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a selling bias at 1.2948 level, set to test the support level of 1.2923 level. The Cable is trading within a downward channel, extending support at 1.2923 level and resistance at 1.3013. On the downside, the GBP/USD pair may find support at 1.2857 level upon the violation of the 1.2923 level. The recent bearish engulfing candle is also in support of the selling trend. The MACD is also supporting selling bias; therefore, we will be looking for selling trades below the 1.3000 level.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

Today in the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to break its thin trading range and still hovering below the 106.50 marks. However, the choppy trading around the currency pair could be associated with the risk-off market sentiment, driven by the US-China tussle and Brexit concern, which eventually underpinned the safe-haven Japanese yen and kept the currency pair under pressure. On the other hand, the broad-based U.S. dollar strength, supportive by the safe-haven demand, becomes the key factor that keeps trying to break the pair’s thin trading range. At this moment, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 106.30 and consolidating in the range between 106.20 – 106.39.

Despite the optimism over a potential treatment/vaccine for the highly infectious virus, the market risk sentiment remains depressive. Be it the worrisome headlines concerning the Brexit or the tension between the US-China, not to forget the coronavirus issues in the U.S., the market trading sentiment has been flashing red since the European session started, which ultimately keeps the safe-haven assets supportive on the day. 

At the US-China front, the rising tensions between the United States and China continued to pick up the pace as President Trump earlier imposed punitive measures over the Asian major. As a result, China announced new visa restrictions to counter the Trump administration’s action against China. Also fueled the tension could be the fresh headlines suggested that the U.S. is considering banning some or all products made with cotton from China’s Xinjiang region. Apart from this, the Brexit’s gloomy headlines also weighed on the market trading sentiment, which eventually supported the safe-haven appeal in the market and dragged the currency pair down.

Also weighed on the market trading sentiment were the fears of rising COVID-19 cases in the U.S., Europe, and some of the notable Asian nations like India, which fueling fears that the economic recovery could be halt.

On the contrary, the broad-based U.S. dollar succeeded in maintaining its positive traction and remaining bullish on the day amid risk-off sentiment. The U.S. dollar gains were further bolstered by the ongoing upsurge in the U.S. Treasury bond yields. However, the U.S. dollar’s modest gains turned out to be the major factor that capped the pair’s further downside momentum. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies, rose by 0.13% to 93.168 by 9:53 PM ET (2:53 AM GMT).


Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.7900 106.0900 106.3200
105.5600 106.6200
105.2500 106.8500

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is consolidating at 105.928 area, having a resistance mark of 106.025 level. An upward crossover of 106.024 level may extend further buying trend until the 106.480 level, and the violation of this level can extend buying until the next resistance level of 106.840. On the downside, the safe-haven USD/JPY currency may gain support at 105.620 and 105.280. Let’s consider taking a sell trade below 106.024 level as the MACD and RSI also suggest selling bias. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

GBP/USD Slips Muti-Week Low – 40 Green Pips Encashed 

During Tuesday’s European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair failed to stop its previous day bearish moves and dropped further to a multi-week low near below the 1.3050 level while represented 0.113% losses on the day mainly due broad-based U.S. dollar ongoing strength, backed by high safe-haven demand. 

During Tuesday’s European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair failed to stop its previous day bearish moves and dropped further to a multi-week low near below the 1.3050 level while represented 0.113% losses on the day mainly due broad-based U.S. dollar ongoing strength, backed by high safe-haven demand. 

During Tuesday’s European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair failed to stop its previous day bearish moves and dropped further to a multi-week low near below the 1.3050 level while represented 0.113% losses on the day mainly due broad-based U.S. dollar ongoing strength, backed by high safe-haven demand. 

On the other hand, the reason behind the currency pair declines could also be associated with the rising fears of a no-deal Brexit, which joined the Cable’s ongoing pessimism and contributed to the currency pair losses. The rising coronavirus cases in the U.K. also add downside pressure around the currency pair. At this particular time, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3051 and consolidating in the range between 1.3023 – 1.3174.

The U.K.’s Environment Secretary George Eustice declined chatters surrounding significant changes in the Brexit agreement, while the E.U. diplomat Michael Barnier recently showed a willingness to leave the trade negotiations. On the other hand, Ireland’s Foreign Minister advised traders to not overreact to the news that the Tories may seek to weaken the Brexit withdrawal agreement. In the meantime, the Irish diplomat warned the Boris Johnson and Company over any such action. In turn, this raised the fears of further losses to the British funds after seeing a record outflow of $1.6 billion in three months to August amid such pessimism.

Also fueling the concerns was the report that the Head of the U.K. Government’s legal department, Jonathan Jones, resigned from his dissatisfaction concerning the overall Brexit situation. It is worth mentioning that Jones is the 6th-senior U.K. government official to resign this year, which increases the ongoing uncertainty over the political scene. This, in turn, undermined the British Pond and extended the currency pair losses.

Moreover, Germany’s Finance Minister Olaf Scholz stated that London’s latest signals do not raise hopes for a Brexit agreement. However, these downbeat comments from Scholzfurther fueled the uncertainty around the Brexit agreement. At the coronavirus front, the U.K.’s coronavirus (COVID-19) cases eased from the highest since May of 2,988 to 2,948 while eased the virus-led restrictions from Northern England. Moreover, BOE’s Chief Economist Andy Haldane appreciated the U.K. recovery from the virus-hit times and pushed for the furlough scheme’s end. However, these positive headlines failed to reduce the ongoing bearish tone around the currency pair.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar flashed green and took the safe-haven bids on the day amid market risk-off sentiment. However, the U.S. dollar gains could also be associated with the upbeat U.S. labor market report, which showed a decline in the unemployment rate. Thus, the gains in the U.S. dollar kept the currency pair under pressure. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies, rose by 0.13% to 93.168 by 9:53 PM ET (2:53 AM GMT).


Looking forward, the market traders will keep their eyes on the Brexit talks. The risk catalyst like geopolitics and the virus woes will be key to watch for the fresh direction, not to forget the Brexit. The GBP/USD is trading within a downward channel extending resistance at 1.3137 level and a support level of 1.3020 level. Violation of 1.3021 level may drive the selling trend until the next support level of 1.2959 level. Well, we are already out of the trade as our forex trading signal at taking profit at 1.30917, securing us 40 green pips. Let’s brace for profit-taking before taking selling trade below 1.3085 level. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, September 08 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – European Data in Focus! 

On Tuesday, the economic calendar offers low impact economic events that may not drive any solid movement in the market. However, the eyes will remain on the German Trade Balance, French Trade Balance, and Revised GDP figures from the Eurozone. EUR currency pairs can show some price action during the day today.

On Tuesday, the economic calendar offers low impact economic events that may not drive any solid movement in the market. However, the eyes will remain on the German Trade Balance, French Trade Balance, and Revised GDP figures from the Eurozone. EUR currency pairs can show some price action during the day today.

On Tuesday, the economic calendar offers low impact economic events that may not drive any solid movement in the market. However, the eyes will remain on the German Trade Balance, French Trade Balance, and Revised GDP figures from the Eurozone. EUR currency pairs can show some price action during the day today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18120 after placing a high of 1.18485 and a low of 1.18114. The EUR/USD pair dropped on Monday and extended its previous day’s losses due to decreased risk appetite and negative industrial production data from Germany. However, the change in prices was little as the U.S. financial markets were closed for the Labor Day Holiday.

The U.S. Dollar was steady on Monday with a little change in U.S. Dollar Index at 92.895 level. However, the greenback sentiment remained weak after the dovish comments from Jerome Powell on Friday that interest rates will remain lower for longer. The dollar was also steady because of the slow growth in the job sector was reported in August.

On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor showed slow growth and increased permanent job losses as the government funding was running out. It has raised doubts about the sustainability of the economic recovery. On the Euro front, traders’ focus has shifted to the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday this week. As it is expected, ECB will not change policy stance, but the focus will solely remain on the message the ECB will deliver on its inflation forecasts.

The local currency Euro marked a 2-year high at the beginning of the month, and after that, the European Central Bank meeting will hold more importance. Because officials were concerned about the higher Euro prices, it would impact the exports and prices.

On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German Industrial Production in July decreased to 1.2% from the expected 4.5% and weighed on the local currency Euro. At 13:30 GMT, the Sentix Investor Confidence for September came in as -8.0 against the expected -11.4 and supported single currency Euro. The decreased German Industrial Production raised concerns over the economic growth and weighed on the Euro that dragged the currency pair EUR/USD on the downside.

The EUR/USD pair was down on Monday because of the European Union’s rising coronavirus cases. On Monday, Spain became the first European country to surpass 500,000 coronavirus cases after the second surge in infections caused after schools were reopened. On Tuesday, the Trade Balance from Germany and France and the Retail Sales data from Italy will be under traders’ focus for finding fresh impetus.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1803 1.1826 1.1841
1.1788 1.1864
1.1764 1.1879

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a selling bias around 1.1801 level, heading lower towards the next support area of 1.1780 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD may find support at 1.1780, the triple bottom level, which is extended by an upward trendline. Below this, the next support is likely to be found around the 1.1725 level.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD failed to stop its previous session losing streak and took further offer below the 1.3150 level while represented 0.96% losses on the day mainly due broad-based U.S. dollar on-going strength, supported by the combination of factors. On the other hand, the reason behind the currency pair declines could also be associated with the rising fears of a no-deal Brexit, which joined the on-going pessimism around the Cable and contributed to the currency pair losses. At this time, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading at 1.3155 and consolidating in the range between 1.3145 – 1.3267.

The GBP currency took a hit on the 1st-day of the week manly after the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson set October 15 as the deadline for a Brexit trade agreement with the European Union, which eventually bolstered the risk of a messy end to the Brexit transition period on December 31. As per the keywords, “U.K. will be ready to trade with the E.U. on Australia type terms if no deal agreed.” He further added, “If no deal reached by October 15 with the E.U., both sides should accept this and move on. Also, fuel the fears could be the reports that the U.K. 

However, the Brexit fears played a major role in weakening the market trading sentiment as the U.S. is on the labor day holiday. Across the pond, the intensifying tensions between the U.S. and China also added a burden around the market trading sentiment. After the U.S. punished Chinese technologies and diplomats by imposing several sanctions, China’s Foreign Ministry urged the U.S. to stop abusing private companies. As per the keywords of China’s Foreign Ministry, “Without evidence, the U.S. has abused national power to take measures on Chinese companies.” This ultimately exerted downside pressure on the trading sentiment and contribute to the currency pair losses.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar flashed green and took the safe-haven bids on the day amid market risk-off sentiment. However, the U.S. dollar gains could also be associated with the upbeat U.S. labor market report, which showed a decline in the unemployment rate and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Thus, the gains in the U.S. dollar kept the currency pair under pressure. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies rose by 0.18% to 92.882 by 12:05 AM ET (5:05 AM GMT).

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3109 1.3197 1.3254
1.3052 1.3342
1.2964 1.3398

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a selling bias at 1.3125 level, set to test the support level of 1.3120 level. The Cable is trading within a downward channel, which may extend support at 1.3120 level along with resistance at 1.3186. On the downside, the GBP/USD pair may find support at 1.3051 level upon the violation of the 1.3125 level. The MACD is also supporting selling bias; therefore, we will be looking for selling trades below the 1.3165 level. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 106.227 after forming a high of 106.503 and 106.055. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. The pair USD/JPY moved in the upward direction and posted gains on Monday. The currency pair extended its bullish streak for the 5th consecutive day despite the sow job growth in the U.S. and increasing US-China tensions.

The tensions between U.S. & China further escalated on Monday after the U.S. administration of President Donald Trump announced a ban on the usage of products made from cotton from China’s Xinjiang region. The ban was imposed against the human rights violation in Xinjiang over the forced labor on Muslim minorities.

China’s response to such a ban is yet to come, but it is expected that the latest ban would only increase the lingering tensions between both nations. These conditions helped fade the market risk sentiment and capped on additional gains in the USD/JPY pair on Monday. The greenback gathered strength against its rivals on the back of upbeat macroeconomic data released in the previous week. But the pair’s upside momentum was limited after a sharp decline in the major equity indexes in the U.S. that helped the JPY to find demand as safe-haven.

On the data front, at 10:00 GMT, the leading indicators in July rose to 86.9% compared to June’s 83.8%; it failed to impact USD/JPY’s pair prices as it came in line with the forecast. However, traders’ focus has now shifted towards the second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Trade Balance data from Japan that will be released on Tuesday. Markets expect the Japanese economy to contract by 8.1% every quarter. Any better than expected reading would give strength to the Asian stock markets and hurt the Japanese Yen that will add further gains in USD/JPY pair.

According to Johns Hopkins University data on the coronavirus front, the total number of coronavirus cases reached 27 million on Monday. These fears kept the risk sentiment under pressure and weighed on the USD/JPY pair’s gains.

However, the risk sentiment was favored by the latest comments from Steven Mnuchin on Sunday. He said that the new stimulus measures’ details would be delivered by the end of this week. He reiterated that the new bill would provide funds to the federal government through the start of December.

The White House and Congress agreed on the same terms to extend the funding, as confirmed by Nancy Pelosi and Steven Mnuchin. The announcement came to avoid the economic shutdown as the current funding was near to expire at the end of this month. These positive comments from Mnuchin raised the risk sentiment and weighed on the Japanese Yen and pushed the USD/JPY pair higher.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
106.1100 106.2500 106.3800
105.9900 106.5100
105.8500 106.6400

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is consolidating at 106.250 area, having a resistance mark of 106.485 level. An upward crossover of 106.505 level may extend further, buying into the next resistance mark of 106.850. On the downside, the safe-haven USD/JPY currency may gain support at 106.028 and 105.628. Let’s consider taking a bullish trade over 106.028 level as the MACD and RSI also suggest neutral bias. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Stopped Losing Streak – Bullish Correction in Play!  

Today in the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair succeeded in stopping its previous session losses and took fresh bids above the 0.7280 level as the U.S. stock futures turned positive. The fresh gains were backed by the optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus, which eventually underpinned the perceived risk currency Australian dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

Today in the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair succeeded in stopping its previous session losses and took fresh bids above the 0.7280 level as the U.S. stock futures turned positive. The fresh gains were backed by the optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus, which eventually underpinned the perceived risk currency Australian dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

Today in the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair succeeded in stopping its previous session losses and took fresh bids above the 0.7280 level as the U.S. stock futures turned positive. The fresh gains were backed by the optimism over a potential vaccine/treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus, which eventually underpinned the perceived risk currency Australian dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

On the contrary, the broad-based U.S. dollar ongoing strength, backed by the upsurge in the U.S. Treasury bond yields, kept a lid on additional currency pair gains. Also, capping the quote upside momentum could be the ongoing US-China tussle. The AUD/USD currency pair is currently trading at 0.7283 and consolidating in the range between 0.7251 – 0.7288. Moving on, the market traders seem reluctant to place any strong position ahead of U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls.

It is worth recalling that the market trading sentiment was supported by optimism over a possible vaccine and treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus. Also, supporting the trading sentiment factor could be the ongoing chatters between the House of Speak Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin concerning the U.S. stimulus package. Tthe House of Speak Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin agreed on the stop-gap funding before the current bill expires on September 30. Also supporting the upticks in U.S. stocks future could be the Fed policymakers’ clears view of keeping the monetary policy easy and without doubt, unlike others. In turn, this underpinned the perceived risk currency Australian dollar and extended some support to the currency pair.

On the contrary, the renewed conflict between the U.S. and China fueled after the Dragon Nation warned the U.S. to cut its American debt holdings. This step has taken by China after the Trump administration announced extra hardships for Beijing diplomats. This eventually exerted downside pressure on the trading sentiment and capped further upside momentum in the U.S. stock futures.

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar succeeded in gaining positive traction and edged higher on the day amid mixed sentiment. The U.S. dollar gains were further bolstered by the ongoing upsurge in the U.S. Treasury bond yields. However, the U.S. dollar’s modest gains became the major factor that capped the pair’s upside momentum. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index Futures that tracks the greenback against a bucket of currencies inched up at 92.47 by 10:23 PM ET (2:23 AM GMT).

Moving on, the August month’s employment data for the U.S., which is scheduled to release at 12:30 GMT, will be key to watch on the day. The headline U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data is expected to drop to 1400K against 1763K prior, while the Unemployment Rate may fall from 10.2% previous to 9.8%. As well as, the coronavirus (COVID-19) updates, U.S. stimulus news, and the US-China tensions could not lose their importance on the day.


The AUD/USD pair traded distinctly bearish to linger at 0.7268 mark, achieving critical support at 0.7250 and resistance at 0.7277. Breach of this area may define the next move in the AUD/USD pair. On the higher side, the AUD/USD pair may encounter resistance at 0.7340 and support at 0.7225. The trend will be concluded following the announcement of NFP figures later through the U.S. session. 

Entry Price – Buy 0.7285

Stop Loss – 0.7245

Take Profit – 0.7325

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, September 04 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for U.S. NFP Figures! 

On the news front, the eyes will be on the U.S. ADP Non-farm payroll figures, which may drive price action during the New York session today. Besides, the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories will remain in highlights as economists expect a slight draw in U.S. oil stocks that may drive buying in WTI crude oil.

On the news front, the eyes will be on the U.S. ADP Non-farm payroll figures, which may drive price action during the New York session today. Besides, the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories will remain in highlights as economists expect a slight draw in U.S. oil stocks that may drive buying in WTI crude oil.

On the news front, the eyes will be on the U.S. ADP Non-farm payroll figures, which may drive price action during the New York session today. Besides, the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories will remain in highlights as economists expect a slight draw in U.S. oil stocks that may drive buying in WTI crude oil.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18513 after placing a high of 1.18644 and a low of 1.17888. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained flat yet bullish throughout the day. After dropping for two consecutive days, the EUR/USD pair extended its losses in the first half of the day but reversed its direction and started posting gains in the late trading hours.

After reaching a 2-years peak level, the EUR/USD pair saw subsequent profit-taking that weighed on its prices and dragged it down. However, on Thursday, the pair’s extra downside pressure was due to the strong U.S. dollar amid better than expected economic data.

The Unemployment Claims from the United States last week dropped to 881K from its previous forecast of 955K and supported the U.S. dollar. The less unemployment claim benefits mean more people rejoined their jobs during the last week in the U.S. and raised hopes for a quick economic recovery.

Moreover, from the European side, at 12:15 GMT, the Spanish Services PMI in August dropped to 47.7 from the forecasted 48.0 and weighed on the shared currency Euro. At 12:45 GMT, the Italian Services PMI for August also dropped to 47.1 from the expected 49.4 and weighed on Euro. AT 12:50 GMT, the French Final Services PMI dropped to 51.5 from the projected 51.9 and weighed on Euro.

However, at 12:55 GMT, the German Final Services PMI rose to 52.5 from the expected 50.8and supported Euro. At 13:00 GMT, the Final Services PMI for the whole bloc in August also rose to 50.5 and showed an expansion against the expectations of 50.1 and supported the Euro that added further in the EUR/USD pair’s gains. At 14:0 GMT, the Retail Sales data from Eurozone dropped to -1.3% in July against the anticipated 1.3% and weighed heavily on Euro.

Most data from Europe on Thursday came in against the local currency and took the pair EUR/USD to its five days lowest level on Thursday. However, in the late trading session, the pair managed to reverse its track and started posting gains. On the other hand, on Thursday, a survey showed that the Eurozone’s rebound from its deepest economic downturn was weakened in August as some countries in the E.U. suffered more than others from the restrictions imposed to curb the spread of the virus.

On Thursday, France’s government detailed its 100 billion euro stimulus plan to erase the coronavirus crises’ economic impact over two years. The billions of euros were lined up in public investments, subsidies, and tax cuts. This added pressure on the single currency Euro and the pair dropped in the first session.

Meanwhile, the countries that rely heavily on tourism like Italy, Spain, and Greece saw a large contraction in the services PMI on Thursday as travel restrictions were put in place to stop the coronavirus spread.

Apart from that, the EUR/USD pair was also under pressure on Thursday because of the latest comments from the Chief ECB Economist, Philip Lane, who said that authorities have started to become uncomfortable with the single currency’s recent appreciation. This not only triggered the profit-taking but also hopes for a new stimulus measure from the European Union to ease the rally of EUR currency. However, the pair EUR/USD managed to find support at the ending hours of Thursday’s trading session as the selling pressure was eased ahead of the NFP data from the U.S.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1802 1.1834 1.1879
1.1757 1.1911
1.1726 1.1956

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

As expected, the EUR/USD bounced off over the support level of 1.1795, and now it’s heading further higher until the next target of 1.1890. The pair may find an immediate resistance at 1.1860 level. Conversely, the EUR/USD may find support at 1.1808 and 1.1780 levels. NFP will determine further price action in the pair. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.32804 after placing a high of 1.33584 and a low of 1.32424. Overall the movement of the GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The British Pound fell for a second straight day on Thursday and threatened to reverse the 3-week winning streak on the Bank of England’s rising expectations of negative interest rates.

Recently, the Governor of Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, has said that the central bank could adopt the worst-case scenario’s negative interest rate policy. The scenario pointed towards the second wave of coronavirus and failure to reach a post-Brexit trade deal with the E.U.

According to Andrew Bailey, the use of negative interest rates would be strong in the worst-case scenario instead of using bond buying or quantitative easing, which are considered the central bank’s preferred tools.

He added that the fears of the second wave of coronavirus affected the recovery pace as the key parts of economy operations were under their normal level. He said that he was worried about the weak economic activity in London.

Bailey also highlighted that there was still a huge amount of uncertainty around the effects that the crisis would have on the economy long term. These concerning comments from bailey weighed on a single currency Pound and kept the GBP/USD pair under pressure on Thursday.

Moreover, the U.S. dollar also played an important role in keeping the currency pair GBP/USD on the downside on Thursday after the release of U.S. Unemployment Claims data.

At 17:30 GMT, the Jobless Claims from last week dropped to 881K from the forecasted 955K and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the highly awaited ISM non-Manufacturing PMI remained flat with the expectations of 47.0. The strong U.S. dollar then weighed on GBP/USD pair and extended its previous day losses.

Whereas, from the Great Britain side, at 13:30 GMT, the Final Services PMI for August dropped to 58.8 against the anticipated 60.1 and weighed on single currency Sterling. The already weak Sterling weighed on GBP/USD pair, and the pair posted losses on the day.

On the Brexit front, the E.U. chief negotiator Michel Barnier launched another attack on U.K.’s post-Brexit stance and said that the British government sought to have its cake and eat it. He accused the U.K. of failing to engage constructively in talks on the future relationship. He stressed the need to approve an agreement by the end of October to have time for ratification. Barnier claimed that despite the U.K.’s desire for independence from the E.U., in practice, the U.K. was seeking the status quo but without obligations. Barnier’s comments raised concerns over the Brexit deal and weighed on GBP that dragged the currency pair GBP/USD on the downside.

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3228 1.3293 1.3344
1.3177 1.3409
1.3112 1.3460

 GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair is trading bearish at 1.3308 level, set to test the support level of 1.3168 level. The Cable has already violated an upward trendline at 1.3375 level, which is already violated. On the lower side, the GBP/USD may drop further below 1.3358 until the 1.3263 level. The MACD is also supporting selling bias; therefore, we will be looking for selling trades below the 1.3355 level. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 106.184 after placing a high of 106.551 and a low of 106.000. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY remained flat yet bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair extended its bullish streak for the 4th consecutive day and rose to a high of 106.5 level on Thursday on positive U.S. jobless claims and services PMI data. However, the pair failed to remain higher and lost most of its daily gains in the late session as the Japanese Yen found demand as a safe-haven.

The U.S. stock market dropped sharply on Thursday, with S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite indexes down by 3.5% and 5.05%. The fall in equities was caused by the lack of progress in the next coronavirus stimulus package by the U.S. government and overdue correction.

Moreover, the US-Treasury yields for the 10-year note lost almost 5%, and the U.S. Dollar Index stayed in the positive territory near 92.8 level as the greenback continued to perform higher against its risk-sensitive rival currencies and helped the USD/JPY to limit its fall in the second session.

On the data front, at 17:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from last week were dropped to 881K from the projected 955K and supported the U.S. dollar that added further gains in the USD/JPY pair. 

The Revised Non-farm Productivity for the quarter raised to 10.1% from the forecasted 7.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Revised Unit Labor Costs for the quarter declined to 9.0% from the anticipated 12.0% and pressured on the U.S. dollar. The Trade Balance in July showed a deficit of 63.6B against the expectations of 58,2B deficit and weighed on the U.S. dollar. At 18:45 GMT, the Final Services PMI for August rose to 55.0 from the expected 54.8 and supported the U.S. dollar that added strength in the USD/JPY pair. At 19:00 GMT, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI remained flat with the expectations of 47.0 and had almost no effect on the U.S. dollar.

The decrease in Unemployment claim benefits and rise in Final Services PMI gave a push to U.S. dollar and USD/JPY pair gains on Thursday.

On the coronavirus front, 25.8 million people have been reported to be diagnosed from coronavirus globally. Almost 17 million people have been reported to be recovered, while more than 850,000 have reported as dead. On Wednesday, after easing the pandemic restrictions, India reported more than 78000 cases in a single day and surpassed the U.S. for a daily case record of coronavirus.

Australia saw the biggest drop in GDP for the quarter and was pushed into recession for the first time since 1991 amid a pandemic crisis and its effect on the economy. These lingering concerns over the coronavirus kept the safe-haven demand for Japanese yen on board and limited the USD/JPY pair’s gains.


 

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.9300 106.2500 106.5000
105.6800 106.8200
105.3700 107.0700

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Friday, the USD/JPY currency pair is trading at 106.077with an immediate resistance level of 106.085 level. Bullish crossover of 106.085 level may drive further buying until the next resistance level of 106.570. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair may find support at 105.800 and 105.500 levels. Let’s consider buying over 106.100 level as the MACD and RSI also suggest the same. Later today, the eyes will remain on the U.S. NFP figures. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Bullish Correction Completed – Brace for Selling! 

The AUD/USD failed to stop its previous session losing streak and dropped below 0.7300 level due to the broad-based U.S. dollar strength, buoyed by the Tuesday’s better-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data. Also weighing on the currency pair was the downbeat data from Australia and China. On the contrary, the market risk-on sentiment, supported by the vaccine hopes and hopes of further U.S. stimulus, becomes the key factor that helped the currency pair limit its deeper losses. 

The AUD/USD failed to stop its previous session losing streak and dropped below 0.7300 level due to the broad-based U.S. dollar strength, buoyed by the Tuesday’s better-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data. Also weighing on the currency pair was the downbeat data from Australia and China. On the contrary, the market risk-on sentiment, supported by the vaccine hopes and hopes of further U.S. stimulus, becomes the key factor that helped the currency pair limit its deeper losses. 

The AUD/USD failed to stop its previous session losing streak and dropped below 0.7300 level due to the broad-based U.S. dollar strength, buoyed by the Tuesday’s better-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data. Also weighing on the currency pair was the downbeat data from Australia and China. On the contrary, the market risk-on sentiment, supported by the vaccine hopes and hopes of further U.S. stimulus, becomes the key factor that helped the currency pair limit its deeper losses. 

At the press time, the AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7302 and consolidating between 0.7297 and 0.7340. Moving on, the currency pair may find some support as the ongoing rally in the U.S. dollar seems to be short-lived as the doubts remain about the U.S. economic recovery amid the weaker than expected ADP report. Australia’s July month Trade Balance registered another fundamental disappointment for the Australian policymakers. Australia’s July month Trade Balance dropped below 5400M flash forecasts and 8202M prior to the data front. Details suggest that the Imports increased past-1.0% to 7.0% while Exports fell to -4.0% from +3.0% prior.

Across the ocean, China’s Caixin Services PMI rose to 54.00 versus 50.4 expected and 54.1 before August. The same push the composite PMI data to 55.1 versus 54.5 prior. As a result of mixed data from the Aussie and China, the AUD/USD currency pair extends its bearish trajectory for the 3rd-day in a row.

However, the reason for the risk-on market sentiment could be associated with the probabilities of further stimulus and hopes of the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine, which tends to underpin the perceived risk currency Australian dollar and helps the pair to limit its deeper losses. It is worth reporting that the AstraZeneca continues its final tests for the coronavirus vaccine. Meanwhile, around 76 rich countries, the global policymakers join to help for the vaccine developments and distribution.

On the contrary, the two biggest economies are at loggerheads after the latest headlines concerning additional sanctions on China diplomats by the U.S. Also fueling the tussle could be the reports suggests Beijing’s embassy in America criticized harshly by the U.S. However, these gloomy headlines could also be considered as the key factor that has been weighed on the Aussi pair.

Despite the risk-on market sentiment and downbeat U.S. data, the broad-based U.S. dollar flashing green on the day supported by Tuesday better-than-expected PMI data, which fueled the hopes of the U.S. economy. However, the U.S. dollar’s bullish bias could be short-lived as doubts remain about the U.S. economic recovery amid Wednesday weaker than expected ADP report. However, the gains in the U.S. dollar became the key factor that kept the currency pair lower. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that measures the greenback against a bucket of 6-major currencies rose by 0.03% to 92.977.

Looking ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on final German and Eurozone PMI readings, which is scheduled for release on the day. As well as, the Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will also be key to watch. In the meantime, the updates surrounding the fresh Sino-US tussle, this time over the South China Sea, and the coronavirus (COVID-19) updates, could not lose their importance.


The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7317, having violated the double bottom support level of 0.7337 level. Closing of candles below this level may drive sharp selling until 0.7289 and even below this until 0.7275. Conversely, a bullish crossover of 0.7369 may drive intense buying until the 0.7385 level. Bearish bias may dominate today.

Entry Price – Sell 0.7296

Stop Loss – 0.7336

Take Profit – 0.7256

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, September 03 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – A Day Before NFP! 

On the news front, the eyes will be on the U.S. ADP Non-farm payroll figures, which may drive price action during the New York session today. Besides, the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories will remain in highlights as economists expect a slight draw in U.S. oil stocks that may drive buying in WTI crude oil.

On the news front, the eyes will be on the U.S. ADP Non-farm payroll figures, which may drive price action during the New York session today. Besides, the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories will remain in highlights as economists expect a slight draw in U.S. oil stocks that may drive buying in WTI crude oil.

On the news front, the eyes will be on the U.S. ADP Non-farm payroll figures, which may drive price action during the New York session today. Besides, the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories will remain in highlights as economists expect a slight draw in U.S. oil stocks that may drive buying in WTI crude oil.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.18542 after placing a high of 1.19286 and a low of 1.18219. On Wednesday, Euro fell sharply against the U.S. dollar as the European Central Bank’s growing expectations will roll out additional stimulus after dismal Eurozone PMI data on Tuesday.

The Eurozone data on the previous day suggested that it had slipped into deflation as the prices of main goods were dropping for the first time in four years. As a result, markets were expecting another round of stimulus package from Europe’s central bank, which raised the European stocks higher.

The central bank’s expectations would unleash a new monetary stimulus, raised the global equities, and added pressure on EUR/USD pair. Expansion in more financial asset purchases is expected from ECB to stimulate the pandemic-stricken economy.

As the European Central Bank meeting is coming next week, some members have raised concerns that the Euro currency was rising sharply, and there was a need for more stimulus package in the economy. According to the ECB’s Chief Economist, Philip Lane, the euro currency levels do matter for monetary policy as a stronger currency generally weighs on export growth and curbs import prices that will lead to a slowdown in inflation.

These growing hopes for a fresh round of stimulus measures from ECB came in just after days the Federal Reserve announced its policy shift to tolerate a rise in inflation from its initial target of 2%. Investors interpreted the Fed’s latest decision as the interest rates will remain lower for longer.

These interpretations were also backed by the New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, who said that even talk of raising interest rates was so far off in the future. The hopes for another round of Europe’s stimulus weighed on the Euro currency and hence paired EUR/USD dropped.

On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German Retail Sales in July was dropped to -0.9% from the forecasted 0.5% and weighed on single currency Euro. At 12:00 GMT, the Spanish Unemployment Change in August rose to 29.8K from the expected 10.1K and weighed on the shared currency Euro and dragged EUR/USD pair further on the downside.

At 14:00 GMT, the Producer Price Index from Eurozone for July rose to 0.6% from the forecasted 0.5% and supported the Euro currency. Most of the data came in against shared currency, and hence EUR/USD pair suffered losses on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, from the U.S. side, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came in as 428K against the expected 1250K and weighed on the U.S. dollar but failed to reverse the EUR/USD pair’s bearish movement. However, the Factory Orders from the U.S. rose to 6.4% from the projected 6.0% and supported the U.S. dollar that added further in the EUR/USD pair’s losses on Wednesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1805 1.1868 1.1914
1.1759 1.1977
1.1696 1.2024

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

As expected, the EUR/USD continues to extend it’s selling bias to 1.1812 level after violating the support level of 1.1890 level. On the lower side, the EUR/USD may find support at 1.1780 level. Above this, we can expect the EUR/USD to take a bullish correction. But for now, we can see the selling trend in the EUR/USD pair. Today, EUR/USD may find resistance 1.1825. Bearish bias dominates.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.33504 after placing a high of 1.34022 and a low of 1.32831. Overall the movement of the GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. After posting gains for three consecutive days and reaching its highest since December 2019, GBP/USD pair dropped on Wednesday and posted losses on the day. The fall in GBP/USD pair was triggered by the dovish commentary by the Bank of England on Wednesday.

Another reason behind the decreased GBP/USD pair prices was the increased safe-haven demand for the greenback that made the U.S. dollar strong and weighed on the currency pair. On Wednesday, the Governor of Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, said that the E.U.’s strategy to force Britain to follow E.U. rules in the future could be seen by European Union’s refusal to grant cross-border access to investment banking services from London.

European Union has said that as the Britain access to the bloc will end on December 31, the services of investment banks from London to E.U. member states will be blocked. E.U. said that it wanted to review the rules first, and then it will decide how much direct access it will grant all types of U.K. financial activity under its system.

British rules will be compared to the 27-nation bloc’s rules, and then the decision of whether to grant access will take place accordingly.

He also warned that the U.K. economy was facing a record level of uncertainty about its future and a significant risk that growth will be far weaker than recently forecasted. He added that the forecasts made in August were done in the face of huge uncertainty due to the continuous fight against COVID-19, structural economic changes, and stalled Brexit trade talks.

These comments weighed on a single currency British Pound and added in the losses of GBP/USD pair on the day. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar rose on Wednesday as the concerns around the U.S. elections and the ongoing US-China tensions have restored the appetite for the safe-haven greenback. 

Despite a sharp decline in the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in August, the U.S. dollar continued to post gains and weighed on GBP/USD pair. In July from the U.S., the Factory orders were increased to 6.4% from the forecasted 6.0% and supported the U.S. dollar that added further pressure on GBP/USD pair.

From the Great Britain side, at 04:01 GMT, the BRC Shop Price Index for the year dropped to -1.6% in September from the previous -1.3%. At 10:57 GMT, the Nationwide Housing Price Index in August rose to 2.0% from the expected 0.5% and supported the Sterling. At 13:30 GMT, the House Price Index from the U.K. for the year increased to 2.9% from the projected 2.8%.

Furthermore, the BoE Deputy Governor, Ben Broadbent, said on Wednesday that fears that BoE was bailing out the U.K. government by financing its coronavirus surge in public spending were misplaced and the central bank has not lost its credibility.

Just like Broadbent, several BoE officials have sought to explain that the central bank’s decision to ramp up its government bond-buying since the COVID-19 crisis was not to restore monetary financing of the government’s spending push. Moreover, the British Pound also fell on Wednesday as the uncertainty over a post-Brexit trade deal between the U.K. & E.U. continued to weigh on the Sterling. With a lack of progress in trade deal talks, investors were concerned about the British economy’s future, and hence the pair GBP/USD dropped.

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.9000 106.1100 106.3700
105.6400 106.5800
105.4300 106.8400

 GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading bearish at 1.3308 level, set to test the support level of 1.3168 level. The Cable has already violated an upward trendline at 1.3375 level, which is already violated. On the lower side, the GBP/USD pair may drop further below 1.3358 until the 1.3263 level. The MACD is also supporting selling bias; therefore, we will be looking for selling trades below the 1.3355 level. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.955 after placing a high of 106.150 and a low of 105.589. The USD/JPY pair moved sideways on Tuesday but ended its day with posting gains as the selling pressure against the U.S. dollar was faded away after the release of ISM Manufacturing data and some fresh comments from Fed Governor. 

However, the fading risk sentiment kept the gains in the USD/JPY pair checked after the coronavirus cases started to rise globally. The worldwide toll of cases reached 25 million with the United States on top with 6 million cases on Wednesday. India reported its biggest single-day surge in coronavirus cases of 78,761 on the weekend, while Spain reported a daily toll of more than 8000. After the U.S., Brazil, and India, now Russia has also entered the country with more than 1 million coronavirus cases. Besides, the Scottish government announced restrictions on people traveling from Greece to Scotland due to developing coronavirus cases.

The increasing number of COVID-19 cases decreased the risk appetite and helped safe-haven Japanese Yen to gain traction that weighed on the USD/JPY pair and limit the additional gains in the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday. Moreover, the renewed US-China tensions after Beijing’s new law to impose restrictions on tech export. China forced a ban on the export of tech companies that will require government approval, which will take 30 days approx. 

The move came in against the order of Donald Trump in which he gave 90 days to the TikTok app for sale or transfer of its rights to the U.S. The tensions also supported the Japanese Yen and capped further upside in the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3288 1.3346 1.3409
1.3225 1.3467
1.3167 1.3530

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY currency pair is trading at 106.077with an immediate resistance level of 106.085 level. Bullish crossover of 106.085 level may drive further buying until the next resistance level of 106.570. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair may find support at 105.800 and 105.500 levels. Let’s consider buying over 106.100 level as the MACD and RSI also suggest the same. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/JPY Violates Symmetric Triangle Pattern – Buy Signal in Play! 

The USD/JPY has violated the ascending triangle pattern at 106.08 level, and it may head further higher until the next target level of 106.500 level. On the data front, at 04:30 GMT, the Unemployment Rate from Japan dropped to 2.9% from the expected 3.0% in July and supported the Japanese Yen. At 04:50 GMT, the Capital Spending from Japan dropped by -11.3% against the estimated -4.0% and weighed heavily on the Japanese Yen. At -5:30 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI for August from Japan expanded to 47.2 against the projected 46.6 and supported the Japanese Yen.

The USD/JPY has violated the ascending triangle pattern at 106.08 level, and it may head further higher until the next target level of 106.500 level. On the data front, at 04:30 GMT, the Unemployment Rate from Japan dropped to 2.9% from the expected 3.0% in July and supported the Japanese Yen. At 04:50 GMT, the Capital Spending from Japan dropped by -11.3% against the estimated -4.0% and weighed heavily on the Japanese Yen. At -5:30 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI for August from Japan expanded to 47.2 against the projected 46.6 and supported the Japanese Yen.

The USD/JPY has violated the ascending triangle pattern at 106.08 level, and it may head further higher until the next target level of 106.500 level. On the data front, at 04:30 GMT, the Unemployment Rate from Japan dropped to 2.9% from the expected 3.0% in July and supported the Japanese Yen. At 04:50 GMT, the Capital Spending from Japan dropped by -11.3% against the estimated -4.0% and weighed heavily on the Japanese Yen. At -5:30 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI for August from Japan expanded to 47.2 against the projected 46.6 and supported the Japanese Yen.

The strong data from Japan supported the safe-haven Japanese Yen and weighed on the USD/JPY pair that kept the currency pair’s gains on Tuesday. Meanwhile, from the U.S. side, the Final Manufacturing PMI in August dropped to 53.1 from the anticipated 53.6 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. Whereas, the highly awaited ISM Manufacturing PMI for August that was released at 19:00 GMT, advanced to 56.0 against the estimated 54.6, and supported the U.S. dollar that helped the USD/JPY pair’s bullish trend on Tuesday.

Moreover, the Construction Spending from the U.S. in July declined to 0.1% from the expected 1.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The ISM Manufacturing Prices in August increased to 59.5 from July’s 53.2. The Wards Total Vehicle Sales from the U.S. came in as 15.2M against the expected 15M and supported the U.S. dollar added in the gains of USD/JPY.


Furthermore, on Tuesday, the U.S. dollar also gained some traction after the comment from the Fed Governor Lael Brainard, who said that to overcome the impact of coronavirus from the economy, the central bank would have to roll out new efforts. She also said that the Fed should adopt an aggressive approach to live up to its promise of stronger job growth and higher inflation. She also stressed the important role massive asset purchases would play in achieving the new policy shift’s targeted goals.

The USD/JPY prices may continue to trade higher until the 106.550 level. The pair has violated the ascending triangle pattern at 106, and above this, the USD/JPY may trade bullish. The MACD and RSI are both suggesting a buying trend. Let’s consider taking buying trade today. 

Entry Price – Buy 106.199

Stop Loss – 105.799

Take Profit – 106.599

Risk to Reward – 1:1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CHF Enters Overbought Zone – Brace for Selling Signal! 

Today in the early European trading session, the USD/CHF currency pair successfully stopped its previous day bearish moves and hit the 1-1/2-week high level around the 0.9135 level in the last hour. However, the combination of factors helped the currency pair to gain positive traction for the 2nd-consecutive session on the day. The broad-based US dollar strength (supported by the US data’s upbeat release showed that the manufacturing sector activity boosted to a 2-year high in August) could be considered the key factor in supporting the currency pair. 

Today in the early European trading session, the USD/CHF currency pair successfully stopped its previous day bearish moves and hit the 1-1/2-week high level around the 0.9135 level in the last hour. However, the combination of factors helped the currency pair to gain positive traction for the 2nd-consecutive session on the day. The broad-based US dollar strength (supported by the US data’s upbeat release showed that the manufacturing sector activity boosted to a 2-year high in August) could be considered the key factor in supporting the currency pair. 

Today in the early European trading session, the USD/CHF currency pair successfully stopped its previous day bearish moves and hit the 1-1/2-week high level around the 0.9135 level in the last hour. However, the combination of factors helped the currency pair to gain positive traction for the 2nd-consecutive session on the day. The broad-based US dollar strength (supported by the US data’s upbeat release showed that the manufacturing sector activity boosted to a 2-year high in August) could be considered the key factor in supporting the currency pair. 

On the other hand, the prevalent risk-on market mood, backed by the multiple factors, undermined the safe-haven Swiss franc and contributed to the USD/CHF currency pair gains. On the contrary, the US aid package’s uncertainty keeps challenging the risk-on tone, which could drag the currency pair down by underpinning the safe-haven demand in the market. Currently, the USD/CHF currency pair is currently trading at 0.9103 and consolidating in the range between 0.9089 – 0.9137.

The upbeat data from key countries like the US, China, and Japan, have remained supportive of its positive tone. The US upbeat data rekindled hopes of the US economic recovery, which lead to a goodish pick up in the US Treasury bond yields. In turn, this underpinned the US dollar and remained supportive of the bid tone surrounding the USD/CHF currency pair.

At the data front, the August’s ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) increased to 56, against July’s reading of 54.2 and the 54.5 forecasts. A surge in new orders recorded the index climb to its multi-year high. At China’s front, the Caixin manufacturing PMI for August increased to 53.1 from 52.8 in July. Likewise, Japan’s manufacturing PMI rose to 47.2 in August from 45.2.

The broad-based US dollar at the USD front managed to keep its gains throughout the Asian session as the traders still cheering the Upbeat US data. However, the US dollar gains seem rather unaffected by the upbeat market tone and held its gaining streak, at least for now. Thus, the US dollar’s modest gains could be considered the major factor that kept the currency pair higher. Whereas, the dollar index (=USD) rose by 0.16% at 92.390, having hit its lowest since April 2018 of 91.737. However, probabilities that the Fed would keep interest rates lower for longer periods could cap the further gains in the US dollar by holding the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets.

Apart from this, the upbeat market sentiment was being supported by the hopes of the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine. The pharmaceutical companies worldwide are going to start their final tests with one of the top candidates developed by AstraZeneca beginning its trials starting from today. This, in turn, boosted the market trading sentiment and extended support to the currency pair.

On the negative side, the on-going conflict between the world’s two largest economies still does not show any sign of slowing down as both nations do not refrain from delivering an aggressive statement. However, the latest US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s latest comments further heated the relation, which could be considered the key factor that capped further upside momentum in the currency pair.

The traders will also keep their eyes on the US ADP Employment Change for August, which is expected 950K against 167K prior. Across the pond, the major comments from BoJ’s Wakatabe will be key to watch.


The USD/CAD is trading at 0.9118, holding right below an immediate resistance at 0.9136 level. On the lower side, the USD/CAD may drop further to complete 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.9080 and even further lower until 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.9060 level. 

Entry Price – Sell 0.91063
Stop Loss – 0.91463
Take Profit – 0.90663
Risk to Reward – 1:1
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, September 02 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on ADP Non-Farm Employment! 

On the news front, the eyes will be on the U.S. ADP Non-farm payroll figures, which may drive price action during the New York session today. Besides, the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories will remain in highlights as economists expect a slight draw in U.S. oil stocks that may drive buying in WTI crude oil.

On the news front, the eyes will be on the U.S. ADP Non-farm payroll figures, which may drive price action during the New York session today. Besides, the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories will remain in highlights as economists expect a slight draw in U.S. oil stocks that may drive buying in WTI crude oil.

On the news front, the eyes will be on the U.S. ADP Non-farm payroll figures, which may drive price action during the New York session today. Besides, the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories will remain in highlights as economists expect a slight draw in U.S. oil stocks that may drive buying in WTI crude oil.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.19117 after placing a high of 1.20113 and a low of 1.19010. On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rose above 1.2000 level in earlier trading session but failed to keep the level and dropped in the late session to post losses. The gains in the first half of the day were associated with the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness; however, in the late session, the losses were associated with the dollar strength triggered by better than expected ISM Manufacturing PMI.

The upward momentum that took the pair above 1.200 level on Tuesday was derived from the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness followed by the new policy shift from Federal Reserve. The improved risk sentiment due to vaccine hopes also helped the pair reach its highest since May 2018. However, the gains were limited as the pair started to fell in the second half of the day.

The losses in the EUR/USD pair were also encouraged by the fading market risk sentiment due to increased coronavirus cases worldwide. On Wednesday, the number of cases reached 6 million in the U.S., while India reported the biggest single-day jump of 78,761 in coronavirus cases over the weekend, whereas the daily case count reached 8000 in Spain. Meanwhile, after the U.S., Brazil, and India, now Russia also became the fourth country to exceed 1 million cases of COVID-19.

Furthermore, to prevent the second wave of coronavirus, the Scottish government announced new restrictions on travelers from Greece to Scotland; quarantine restrictions will be imposed on people traveling from Greece to Scotland due to emerging coronavirus cases. These tensions weighed on market risk sentiment and added in the further losses of EUR/USD on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1870 1.1941 1.1981
1.1829 1.2053
1.1758 1.2093

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair fell to trade at 1.1901 level, having immediate support at 1.1891 level, which is extended by double bottom level. Violation of 1.1891 level may extend selling until 1.1845 support. On the higher side, the resistance stays at 1.1935 and 1.1978 level for EUR/USD. Price action will highly depend upon the U.S. Advance NFP figures today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.33830 after placing a high of 1.34820 and a low of 1.33561. Overall the movement of GBP/USD remained flat yet bullish throughout the day. In the first half of the day, the pair rose and extended its gains to reach its highest since December 2019, near 1.3500 level on the back of selling bias surrounding the U.S. dollar. However, most of its early gains were lost in the second half of the day after the release of ISM Manufacturing PMI data on Tuesday.

In the early trading session, the equity markets moved in a higher direction after releasing China’s manufacturing PMI data from Caixin that showed an expansion in the industry by 53.1 against the estimated 52.6. It showed that the world’s second-largest economy was improving and raised the chances for quick economic recovery.

The improvement in China’s economy when the U.S. is suffering against the coronavirus pandemic increased the risk sentiment and weighed on the U.S. dollar that pushed the risk-sensitive currency pair GBP/USD higher on board. However, USD and risk appetite’s selling bias did not remain in the market for long and started to fade in the late session as the macroeconomic data from both the U.K. & U.S. came in against GBP/USD pair on Tuesday.

At 13:30 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI from the U.K. in August dropped to 55.2 from the forecasted 55.3 and weighed on GBP. The M4 Money Supply in July from Britain also dropped to 0.9% from the expected 1.2% and weighed on the Sterling. The Mortgage Approvals, however, rose to 66K against the estimated 55K and supported GBP. The Net Lending to Individuals remained flat with the expectations of 3.9B. Most data from Great Britain was against British Pound, and hence, the GBP/USD pair suffered and lost some of its gains on the day.

On the other hand, from the U.S. side, the highly awaited ISM Manufacturing PMI was released at 19:00 GMT, which exceeded the expectations of 54.6 and came in as 56.0 and supported the U.S. dollar. The strong U.S. dollar added weight on the GBP/USD pair that lost most of its daily gains but still ended its day with a slightly bullish trend.

Apart from macroeconomic data, the progress towards Brexit deal also drove the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday when PM Boris Johnson’s spokesman said that Britain wanted to agree simpler parts of the future relationship with the E.U. first to create momentum in the negotiations. While the E.U. has been insisting on reaching a consensus on difficult areas in talks such as E.U. state aid before any other negotiation area, even legal texts.

However, the next round of talks is scheduled for next week, but before that, another meeting was scheduled for Tuesday ahead of formal negotiation resumption next Monday. Michel Barnier went to London for informal talks with his U.K. counterpart, David Frost, as the transition period is near to end. It is yet to see how the informal talks went between both parties and discussed in the next round of formal meetings. Traders are cautiously waiting for some direction towards Brexit-deal.

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.6400 105.9000 106.2100
105.3300 106.4700
105.0700 106.7800

 GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading bearish at 1.3358 level, set to test the support level of 1.3358 level. The Cable has already violated an upward trendline at 1.3375 level, which is already violated. On the lower side, the GBP/USD pair may drop further below 1.3358 until the 1.3263 level. The MACD is also supporting selling bias; therefore, we will be looking for selling trades below the 1.3355 level. Lets brace for ADP NFP figures for better price action. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.955 after placing a high of 106.150 and a low of 105.589. The USD/JPY pair moved sideways on Tuesday but ended its day with posting gains as the selling pressure against the U.S. dollar was faded away after the release of ISM Manufacturing data and some fresh comments from Fed Governor. 

However, the fading risk sentiment kept the gains in the USD/JPY pair checked after the coronavirus cases started to rise globally. The worldwide toll of cases reached 25 million with the United States on top with 6 million cases on Wednesday. India reported its biggest single-day surge in coronavirus cases of 78,761 on the weekend, while Spain reported a daily toll of more than 8000. After the U.S., Brazil, and India, now Russia has also entered the country with more than 1 million coronavirus cases. Besides, the Scottish government announced restrictions on people traveling from Greece to Scotland due to developing coronavirus cases.

The increasing number of COVID-19 cases decreased the risk appetite and helped safe-haven Japanese Yen to gain traction that weighed on the USD/JPY pair and limit the additional gains in the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday. Moreover, the renewed US-China tensions after Beijing’s new law to impose restrictions on tech export. China forced a ban on the export of tech companies that will require government approval, which will take 30 days approx. The move came in against the order of Donald Trump in which he gave 90 days to the TikTok app for sale or transfer of its rights to the U.S. The tensions also supported the Japanese Yen and capped further upside in the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3330 1.3407 1.3459
1.3279 1.3535
1.3202 1.3587

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY currency pair is trading at 106.077with an immediate resistance level of 106.085 level. Bullish crossover of 106.085 level may drive further buying until the next resistance level of 106.570. On the lower side, the USD/JPY pair may find support at 105.800 and 105.500 levels. Let’s consider buying over 106.100 level as the MACD and RSI also suggest the same. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Daily Topic Forex Price Action

A Classic Example of Trading on a Double Top

Last week, in one of our lessons, we showed an example of how the price gets bullish based on the double bottom and flipped support. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of a double top and flipped resistance. a Double Top is the opposite of a Double Bottom, so it drives the price towards the South. It is one of the strongest bearish reversal patterns. Traders love to go short when a chart produces a double top in the Forex market. Let us now proceed and find out how it usually works.

Last week, in one of our lessons, we showed an example of how the price gets bullish based on the double bottom and flipped support. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of a double top and flipped resistance. a Double Top is the opposite of a Double Bottom, so it drives the price towards the South. It is one of the strongest bearish reversal patterns. Traders love to go short when a chart produces a double top in the Forex market. Let us now proceed and find out how it usually works.

Last week, in one of our lessons, we showed an example of how the price gets bullish based on the double bottom and flipped support. In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of a double top and flipped resistance. a Double Top is the opposite of a Double Bottom, so it drives the price towards the South. It is one of the strongest bearish reversal patterns. Traders love to go short when a chart produces a double top in the Forex market. Let us now proceed and find out how it usually works.

The chart shows that the price heads towards the North and finds its resistance. It produces a bearish engulfing candle. Sellers on the minor chart may look to go short in the chart. However, the sellers in this chart may wait for either the price consolidates and makes a bearish breakout or to produce a double top.

The price finds its support and heads towards the level of resistance again. It consolidates around the level of resistance. A bearish reversal candle followed by a breakout at the last support may attract the sellers to go short in the pair since the chart would produce a double top, and the breakout would be a neckline breakout.

Here it goes. The price heads towards the South with good bearish momentum. It makes a breakout at the neckline and produces one more bearish candle. The sellers are going to wait to go short in the pair below the lowest low. However, it is best to wait for the price to consolidate around the breakout level and produce a bearish reversal candle to get a better risk-reward.

The price consolidates around the breakout level and produces a bearish engulfing candle at the breakout level. The sellers may go short below consolidation’s support by setting stop-loss above consolidation’s resistance and by setting a take-profit target with 1R at least. Please note, a double bottom/double top and consolidation around the neckline breakout level usually offers more than 1R. Let us find out how the trade goes.

The price heads towards the downside with extreme bearish momentum. It produces an inverted hammer. The price may make a bullish correction from here. Count the length that the price has traveled so far. It has traveled a long way offering about 6R to the sellers. One trade like this in a week may make a trader fulfilled. Thus, keep your eyes on patterns such as the Double Top/Double Bottom. Remember the procedure; wait for the price to consolidate and produce a reversal candle at the breakout level; trigger an entry below consolidation support/resistance, and manage your trade accordingly.

Categories
Forex Signals

Bullish EUR/JPY Setup Reverses – Quick Update on Manually Closed Signal! 

The EUR/JPY is trading at 126.700 level, reversing below an immediate resistance level of 127.073. The closing of candles below 127 level is likely to drop until 126.450 level. The single currency Euro could be the reports that suggested that Germany avoided a sub-zero inflation print in August despite the negative base effect from low energy prices and VAT cut, which eventually gave support to the shared currency. 

The EUR/JPY is trading at 126.700 level, reversing below an immediate resistance level of 127.073. The closing of candles below 127 level is likely to drop until 126.450 level. The single currency Euro could be the reports that suggested that Germany avoided a sub-zero inflation print in August despite the negative base effect from low energy prices and VAT cut, which eventually gave support to the shared currency. 

The EUR/JPY is trading at 126.700 level, reversing below an immediate resistance level of 127.073. The closing of candles below 127 level is likely to drop until 126.450 level. The single currency Euro could be the reports that suggested that Germany avoided a sub-zero inflation print in August despite the negative base effect from low energy prices and VAT cut, which eventually gave support to the shared currency. 

In the meantime, the Spanish Economy Minister Nadia Calvino’s positive comments about the Spanish economy also underpinned the single currency and contributed to the currency pair gains. As per the keywords, “The economy is expanding currently at a pace of more than 10% in the 3rd-quarter”. He further added, “Spanish banking sector is solvent.” However, the single currency cheered the Spanish economy’s upbeat outlook, as the EUR/USD pair set to beak 1.20 level.

On the contrary, the number of coronavirus cases increased to 242,381, while the total number of deaths reached 9,298. Whereas, the cases rose by 610 in Germany yesterday as per the German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI) report. The coronavirus fears could be considered the key factor that cap further upside momentum for the currency pair.

Across the ocean, the on-going Japanese political uncertainty failed to give any major support to the currency, at least for now. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) General Council Chairman Shunichi Suzuki stated that leadership would be conducted in a simplified rather than full-scale format respecting the urgency. This looming uncertainty initially weighed on the Japanese yen currency and gave some support to the major, but the support was short-lived as the US dollar continues losing its ground and becomes the major factor that keeps the currency pair down.


We opened a buy trade in the EUR/JPY currency pair at 126.94 with a stop loss of 127.34 and take a profit of 126.54. But the recent Doji candles below 127 level may cause a bearish reversal. Therefore, we decided to close the trade a bit early before it reverses the other way. Anyways, we can look for buying trade again around 126.250 level. Stay tuned, good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, September 01 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Dollar Weakens Amid NFP Forecast! 

On the news front, the eyes will be on the series of economic events like Manufacturing PMI data from Europe, the U.K., and the U.S. Economy. Overall, almost all of the events are expected to report neutral results. Therefore, any surprisingly bad or good data may drive some price action in the market today.

On the news front, the eyes will be on the series of economic events like Manufacturing PMI data from Europe, the U.K., and the U.S. Economy. Overall, almost all of the events are expected to report neutral results. Therefore, any surprisingly bad or good data may drive some price action in the market today.

On the news front, the eyes will be on the series of economic events like Manufacturing PMI data from Europe, the U.K., and the U.S. Economy. Overall, almost all of the events are expected to report neutral results. Therefore, any surprisingly bad or good data may drive some price action in the market today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.19359 after placing a high of 1.19659 and a low of 1.18841. The EUR/USD pair continued its bullish trend for the second day and rose to its highest since August 18 on Monday amid broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. Every month, the currency pair EUR/USD rose for the 4th consecutive month in August. The improved risk sentiment followed the positive momentum in the EUR/USD pair in the market amid a rise in the U.S. stock futures.

 On Monday, the U.S. stock futures opened the day with modest gains as the market was on track to rack up their best August in more than 30 years. The upward momentum in stocks came after the S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at an all-time high on Friday, with the former looking set to record its most robust August performance in 34 years.

The rally in the stock market was backed by the improved risk sentiment powered by massive monetary and fiscal stimulus in recent months that offset the concerns over the outlook of economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. Besides, the optimism around the vaccine development and treatments for COVID-19 and the robust demand for tech stocks also boosted the risk sentiment.

During the previous week, the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell shifted the policy to average inflation targeting that allowed inflation to surpass the 2% target. This shift raised concerns that interest rates were locked near-zero for as much as five years and weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar. The weak U.S. dollar helped EUR/USD to post gains on Monday.

Meanwhile, the German Prelim CPI in August dropped to -0.1% from the anticipated 0.0% and weighed on Euro on the data front. The Spanish Flash CPI fell in August to -0.5% from the July’s -0.6%. The Italian Prelim CPI in August came in line with the expectations of 0.3%. Most data from the European side came against Euro and limited the additional gains in EUR/USD pair on Monday.

While from the U.S. side, the Fed Vice Chair, Richard Clarida said on Monday that Federal Reserve would turn to discuss the next possible steps in the U.S. central bank’s fight against coronavirus induced economic fallout as a new policy framework has been set in place. The possible steps include linking interest rates directly with a return to full employment and possible expansion in monthly asset purchases to aid the economy through the COVID-19 crisis further.

Furthermore, the risk sentiment was also boosted by the news that the highly awaited Oxford vaccine will begin its phase-3 trials in the United States on Tuesday. This also helped EUR/USD pair to post gains on Monday.

Whereas, the World Health Organization pointed out encouraging signs that countries in Europe could deal with the coronavirus outbreak, despite the increase in cases since lockdown measures were lifted. According to a Senior Advisor to the Director-General at WHO, Bruce Aylward said that Europe has learned how to identify, isolate, and quarantine. It also helped raise the local currency Euro and added further in EUR/USD pair gains.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1891 1.1929 1.1975
1.1846 1.2012
1.1808 1.2058

 EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading sharply bullish amid the weaker dollar, leading EUR/USD pair towards 1.1993 level. The EUR/USD pair has violated the resistance level of 1.1960 level, which is now working as a support for Eur. On the upper side, the pair may find resistance at 1.2025 and 1.2065 levels today. The bullish bias remains dominant.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.33651 after placing a high of 1.33956 and a low of 1.3309. Overall the movement of the GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair extended its previous day’s bullish streak on Monday and posted gains for the third consecutive month on August amid broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and improved risk-on market sentiment.

The risk-sensitive British Pound gained on Monday due to many factors, including the dovish policy shift from the U.S. Federal Reserve, development in vaccine & treatments of COVID-19. At the same time, some lingering tensions in US-China kept the pair’s gains limited.

On Friday, the U.S. Federal Reserve shifted to a dovish policy that allowed inflation to pass over the 2% target, which means continued low-interest rates for almost five years. This weighed on the U.S. dollar and helped GBP/USD to post gains on Monday.

Meanwhile, the market sentiment was also powered by the positive headlines from the vaccine front as a possible virus vaccine made by Oxford has announced to start its phase-3 trials from Tuesday. Moreover, the US-listed Chinese tech companies were heading to Hong Kong exchange from New York Exchange amid increased US-China dispute. This weighed on market sentiment and kept a check on additional gains in GBP/USD pair.

Whereas, on the Brexit front, the U.K. Government has said that the European Union was making Brexit talks unnecessarily difficult after France accused the U.K. of deliberately stalling in negotiations.

In last week, U.K. and E.U. ended their latest round of negotiation with very little progress due to warnings of no-deal Brexit if issues did not settle within a few weeks. Only four months have left until the transition period ends, and both sides have failed to resolve their issues and are still stuck on various points, including fisheries and state aid policy.

Recently French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian has blamed the U.K. for the deadlock and said that the failure in progress in talks was because of the United Kingdom’s intransigent and unrealistic attitude. Whereas, the U.K. has said that it has been clear from the outset about the U.K. approach’s principles. A spokeswoman said that the U.K. seeks a relationship that respects their sovereignty and has a free trade agreement the E.U. has with like-minded countries.

E.U. still insists not only that the U.K. must accept continuity with E.U. state aid and fisheries policy but also that the U.K. must agree before any further work can be done un any other area of negotiation. This also includes the legal texts that make in unnecessarily difficult to make progress. Next week, another round of talks will occur, and investors are looking forward to it for fresh clues.

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3314 1.3355 1.3409
1.3260 1.3450
1.3219 1.3504

 GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a neutral bias below an immediate resistance level of 1.3425 level. Closing of candles below 1.3420 level is likely to drive selling until the 38.2% Fibonacci support level of 1.3350 and 61.8% Fibonacci support level of 1.3305 level. The MACD has also crossed below 0, supporting selling bias in the GBP/USD pair. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of 1.3420 level can lead the Cable towards 1.3511 level. Let’s consider taking buying trades over 1.3350 level today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.901 after placing a high of 106.094 and a low of 105.208. The USD/JPY pair moved in an upward direction on Monday despite the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The pair, which posted a loss of more than100 pips on Friday amid the resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, recovered about half of the previous losses on Monday.

The risk-on market sentiment made it difficult for the safe-haven Japanese Yen to find demand on Monday and helped pair USD/JPY moved higher on board. The heightened optimism for an effective coronavirus treatment and the U.S. Food & Drug Administration’s decision to fast-track vaccine approval added in the risk-sentiment. Besides, the news that the Oxford vaccine will also start its phase-3 trials on the next day also powered the risk sentiment and weighed on JPY that pushed the USD/JPY pair even higher at the start of the week. 

However, with the lingering tensions between the U.S. & China, the US-listed Chinese tech companies were preferring the Hong Kong Exchange with Alibaba affiliate Ant Group, one of the most highly predicted initial public offerings ready for a dual listing in Shanghai and Hong Kong. This kept the additional gains in USD/JPY limited on Monday.

The U.S. dollar was under heavy selling pressure on Monday amid U.S. Dollar Index slumped to more than two years, the lowest level at 91.99.

The pressure surrounding the greenback was increased in the absence of any significant fundamentals on Monday, and the market kept following the strategy of a policy shift from the Federal Reserve on Friday.

Meanwhile, on Monday, Vice Chairman Richard Clarida explained that as Federal Reserve has shifted from its previous policy and has set a new policy framework, the central bank’s focus will now shift towards the next promises made by it to fight against the coronavirus induced economic slump.

Fed made promises to link interest rates to the direct return of full employment and increase the monthly assets purchases to boost the economy through the economic crisis followed by the coronavirus pandemic.

On the other hand, at 04:50 GMT, the Prelim Industrial Production in July increased to 8.0% from the expected 5.0% and supported the Japanese Yen. The Retail Sales for the year from Japan dropped to -2.8% from the forecasted -1.7% and weighed on the Japanese Yen that pushed the pair USD/JPY even higher on board.

At 10:00 GMT, the Consumer Confidence from Japan in August increased to 29.3 against the expected 28.7 and supported the Japanese Yen. At 10:02 GMT, the Housing Starts came in as -11.4% against the anticipated -12.0% and supported the Japanese Yen but failed to reverse the USD/JPY pair’s bullish movement.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.4200 105.7600 106.2300
104.9500 106.5700
104.6200 107.0300

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading within a sideways range of 105.866 to 105.200 range. The pair entered into the oversold zone previously, but now it has completed 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, and above this, the next target is likely to be found around 105.870. The MACD has crossed over 0 and has entered into the buying zone. Bullish bias seems dominant in the market today. Therefore, we may see USD/JPY prices soaring towards 38.2% Fibo levels of 105.870. Buying can be seen at over 105.200 level today. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/JPY Heads for 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement 

During Monday’s European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair extended its previous session gains. They remained closer to 106.00 level due to the risk-on market tone, backed by the enthusiasm over a potential vaccine and medicine for the extremely contagious coronavirus disease. As well as, the better-than-expected Chinese Manufacturing and Services PMI data also played its positive role in underpinning the market tone, which eventually weakened the demand for the safe-haven Japanese yen. The receding worries over the Japanese political scenario could also be another factor involved in currency pair losses. 

During Monday’s European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair extended its previous session gains. They remained closer to 106.00 level due to the risk-on market tone, backed by the enthusiasm over a potential vaccine and medicine for the extremely contagious coronavirus disease. As well as, the better-than-expected Chinese Manufacturing and Services PMI data also played its positive role in underpinning the market tone, which eventually weakened the demand for the safe-haven Japanese yen. The receding worries over the Japanese political scenario could also be another factor involved in currency pair losses. 

During Monday’s European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair extended its previous session gains. They remained closer to 106.00 level due to the risk-on market tone, backed by the enthusiasm over a potential vaccine and medicine for the extremely contagious coronavirus disease. As well as, the better-than-expected Chinese Manufacturing and Services PMI data also played its positive role in underpinning the market tone, which eventually weakened the demand for the safe-haven Japanese yen. The receding worries over the Japanese political scenario could also be another factor involved in currency pair losses. 

On the contrary, the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the risk-on market sentiment and downbeat prints of America’s Core PCE data, became the key factor that capped further upside momentum for the currency pair. In the meantime, the mixed Japan data was largely ignored by the currency pair bulls. At this moment, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 105.92 and consolidating in the range between 105.30 – 105.97.

At the data front, the preliminary Industrial Production climbed significantly past-1.2% forecast and 1.9% before print the 8.0% mark on MoM. Meanwhile, the annual figures were downbeat as 16.1% contraction against -15.7% expected. Moreover, Retail Sales fell 3.3% on MoM and 2.8% on YoY against 8.0% and 2.4% respective forecasts.

Apart from this, the reason for the upbeat market sentiment could be associated with the release of better-than-expected Chinese Manufacturing and Services PMI prints, which eventually raised hopes about the global recovery from the pandemic. However, the risk sentiment was further bolstered by the headlines that suggested a rush towards a vaccine. Besides this, the U.S. stimulus package’s probabilities also boosted the risk sentiment, which tends to weaken the safe-haven Japanese yen. The opposition Democratic Party voted in the favor to take a $1.3 trillion offer, which kept the market traders satisfied. On the contrary, the market trading sentiment relatively unaffected by the long-lasting US-China tussle. 

Also supporting the market risk-tone was Powell’s new monetary policy framework, which fueled expectations of an extended period of low-interest rates and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

As a result of the upbeat market sentiment, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction on the day. The losses could also be associated with the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish signals at the Jackson Hole Symposium. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar became the key factor that kept the currency pair’s gain limited. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies dropped by 0.09% to 92.293 on the day.

 

Looking ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on the speech by Federal Reserve Governor Richard Clarida. Japan’s Final Manufacturing PMI will also be key to watch. In the meantime, the updates surrounding the fresh Sino-US tussle, this time over the South China Sea and the coronavirus (COVID-19) updates, could not lose their importance.


The USD/JPY is trading with a bullish bias at 106; it’s expected to trade higher until 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 106.100 and 106.300 levels. The MACD is also a signaling buying trend in the USD/JPY pair. We have already closed the buying signal in green pips as the market is lacking volatility. Let’s brace to buy again over 105.740 level today. Good luck! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 31 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Trading Choppy Sessions!   

On the news side, the eyes will be on European Spanish and German CPI data, which are expected to report a mixed figure. Later the Italian Prelim CPI is expected to report slightly positive data that may support EUR. Let’s take a look at the trade setups.

On the news side, the eyes will be on European Spanish and German CPI data, which are expected to report a mixed figure. Later the Italian Prelim CPI is expected to report slightly positive data that may support EUR. Let’s take a look at the trade setups.

On the news side, the eyes will be on European Spanish and German CPI data, which are expected to report a mixed figure. Later the Italian Prelim CPI is expected to report slightly positive data that may support EUR. Let’s take a look at the trade setups.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 


 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.19054 after placing a high of 1.19196 and a low of 1.18108. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. After moving sidelines and under pressure for two days, EUR/USD pair surged on Friday and posted gains on the back of broad-based U.S. dollar weakness from the dovish comments from the highly awaited Jerome Powell’s speech. However, the gains remain limited due to rising coronavirus cases and fears of the second wave in Europe.

The Government of Europe has re-imposed restrictions on citizens and renewed quarantine measures for some travelers. In response to these renewed restrictions, thousands of people took to the streets of Berlin against it. Police in Berlin arrested 300 demonstrators during the protests against Germany’s coronavirus restrictions.

On Friday, France made a larges jump since May 16 and reported 7462 new coronavirus cases. Germany reported around 1737 cases and three deaths. Italy reported 146 cases on Friday, the largest since April 1, and Spain announced 9779 cases on August 28. The resurgence of coronavirus in Europe came near when every European country was planning to start schooling from next week. Now, fears for a renewed spike in cases exacerbate as the schools’ time has come near. These lingering fears have kept the market sentiment under pressure and gains in EUR/USD limited on Friday.

Meanwhile, on the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German GfK Consumer Climate in August declined to -1.8 from the projected 1.0 and weighed on single currency Euro. At 11:03 GMT, the German Import Prices for July rose to 0.3% from the expected 0.2% and supported Euro added in the currency pair’s gains.

At 11:45 GMT, the French Consumer Spending in July fell to 0.5% from the anticipated 1.2% and weighed on Euro. For August, the French Prelim CPI came in as -0.1% against the expected -0.2% and supported Euro and added in the gains of EUR/USD. The French Prelim GDP for the second quarter came in line with the expectations of -13.8%.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1902 1.1904 1.1908
1.1898 1.1910
1.1895 1.1914

 EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading slightly bullish at 1.1900 level, having an immediate resistance at 1.1918 level and support at 1.1896 level. On the higher side, a bullish breakout of the 1.1920 level can trigger buying until 1.1955 level. Conversely, a bearish breakout of 1.1896 level can drive selling until 1.1835 support. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.33505 after placing a high of 1.33564 and a low of 1.31861. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. After moving sideways on Thursday, GBP/USD pair posted strong gains on the back of supportive comments from Governor of Bank of England at Jackson Hole Symposium and broad-based U.S. dollar weakness.

On Friday, the GovernorBank of England Governor said that the central bank was not out of power to support the economy. This statement was followed by the dramatic shock caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

In a speech to Jackson Hole symposium, Andrew Bailey told that the bank has more ammunition left to support the economy. He also said that the major bond-buying drives had been proved more effective in the major economic crisis caused by the pandemic.

He informed that the central bank appreciated the need to keep enough headroom to deal with future shocks. He said that the bank still has a range of fiscal tools, including the negative interest rates, and there was no need to tighten monetary policy.

In March, the Governor took over the bank and almost immediately oversaw a 300 billion pounds bond-buying program and a cut in interest rate to a record low of 0.1%. After these comments from the Governor of Bank of England, the GBP/USD pair surged to the highest level since December 15, 2019.

The gains in GBP/USD pair were also supported by the weakness in the U.S. dollar that was derived from the dovish comments from the Chairman of Federal Reserve Jerome Powell on Thursday. According to Powell, the inflation will remain at 2% average for some time that increased hopes for a entended period of loose monetary policy by the central bank and weighed on local currency.

The U.S. dollar weakness helped GBP/USD pair to post extra gains, and hence, the pair reached the highest of more than eight months. There was no macroeconomic release from the U.K. side on the data front, but from the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Core PCE Price Index fell to 0.3% in July from the anticipated 0.5% and weighed on U.S. dollar. The Personal Spending rose to 1.9% in July from the projected 1.5% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 18:05 GMT, the Chicago PMI came in line with the anticipations of 51.0 in August. At 19:00 GMT, the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment rose to 74.1 from the projected 72.8 and supported the U.S. dollar.

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.3400 105.5700 105.7800
105.1300 106.0100
104.8900 106.2300

 GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The AUD/USD pair is trading with a neutral bias below an immediate resistance level of 1.3365 level. Closing of candles below 1.3365 level is likely to drive selling until 38.2% Fibonacci support level of 1.3280 and 61.8% Fibonacci support level of 1.3250 level. The MACD has also crossed below 0, supporting selling bias in the GBP/USD pair. Let’s consider taking selling trades below 1.3365 level today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.351 after placing a high of 106.945 and a low of 105.200. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bearish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair rose to near ten days the highest level on Friday near 107.00 level but failed to cross the resistance level and dropped on the back of broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and posted strong losses day. The pair posted the biggest daily decline on Friday and dropped to 105.2 level at the week’s ending day.

In the early trading session, the USD/JPY pair faced rejection near the 107.00 level and witnessed a dramatic turnaround on the latest news that Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was stepping down due to ill health.

The 65-year-old Japan’s PM Shinzo Abe said that he did not want his illness to get in the decision-making way. He apologized to the Japanese people for failing to complete his term in office. He has had ulcerative colitis, inflammatory bowel disease, and he said that his condition had worsened recently.

Abe’s current period began in 2012, and last year he became Japan’s longest-serving prime minister. Until a successor is chosen, he will remain in his post and continue his duty. This political development gave strength to Japanese Yen that dragged the pair back closer to the 106 level on Friday.

Meanwhile, in later sessions, the pair was further dragged down due to the U.S. dollar’s broad-based weakness. The greenback was under pressure due to the dovish comments from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium on the previous day.

On Thursday, Powell announced a significant policy shift and said that Fed was willing to run the inflation hotter than usual and support the labor market, also suggested keeping interest rates lower for longer. This also weighed on market sentiment and added further in the USD/JPY pair losses that dragged the pair towards 105.00 level.

On the data front, at 04:30 GMT, the Tokyo Core CPI for the year in August was declined to -0.3% from the anticipated 0.3% and weighed on Japanese Yen. From the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Core PCE Price Index was dropped to 0.3% from the anticipated 0.5% in July and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added in the losses of currency pair. The Personal Spending rose to 1.9% against the expected 1.5% in July and supported the U.S. dollar.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3339 1.3349 1.3364
1.3325 1.3373
1.3315 1.3388

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading within a sideways range of 105.866 to 105.200 range. The pair entered into the oversold zone previously, but now it has completed 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, and above this, the next target is likely to be found around 105.870. The MACD has crossed over 0 and has entered into the buying zone. Bullish bias seems dominant in the market today. Therefore, we may see USD/JPY prices soaring towards 38.2% Fibo levels of 105.870. Buying can be seen at over 105.200 level today. Good luck! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 28 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speaks! 

On the news front, the economic calendar is due to a report series of CPI and GDP figures from the European economy. These events are expected to be overshadowed by the U.S. Personal Pending, Chicago PMI, and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, which are expected to slightly worse than beforehand. This may add further bearish bias for the U.S. dollar today.

On the news front, the economic calendar is due to a report series of CPI and GDP figures from the European economy. These events are expected to be overshadowed by the U.S. Personal Pending, Chicago PMI, and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, which are expected to slightly worse than beforehand. This may add further bearish bias for the U.S. dollar today.

On the news front, the economic calendar is due to a report series of CPI and GDP figures from the European economy. These events are expected to be overshadowed by the U.S. Personal Pending, Chicago PMI, and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, which are expected to slightly worse than beforehand. This may add further bearish bias for the U.S. dollar today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

During the Thursday’s Asian trading hours, the EUR/USD currency pair managed to extend its previous session gaining streak and still flashing green while taking round near 1.1830/40 level mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar selling bias, in the wake of cautious sentiment around the market ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. On the contrary, the buying interest around the shared currency is declining on the day amid the intensifying virus fugues in Europe, which eventually becomes the key factor that has been capped further upside in the currency pair. 

At the moment, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1835 and consolidating in the range between the 1.1817 – 1.1850. However, the traders are cautious about placing any strong position ahead of week’s Jackson Hole conferences where Federal Reserve’s (Fed) President Jerome Powell will speak about the central bank’s long-awaited monetary policy framework review, which will focus on inflation. 

Despite the upbeat U.S. and China data, the equity market has been declining since the day started amid the renewed concerns over the US-China relation. At the US-China front, the Trump administration sanctioned those companies who are helping China to mark its existence in the South China Sea. In contrast, China fired missiles in a military drill near the South China Sea. 

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction on the day. However, the losses could be associated with the doubts about the U.S. economic recovery ahead of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at Thursday’s Jackson Hole symposium themed. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar became the key factor that kept the currency pair’s higher. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies dropped by 0.12% to 92.882 by 11:59 PM ET (4:59 AM GMT).

At the coronavirus front, the coronavirus cases grew to 236,429, with a total of 9,280 deaths toll, according to the German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI) report. In the meantime, the cases rose by 1,576 in Germany yesterday against Monday’s +1278. Whereas the death toll also grew by 3. It is worth mentioning that Germany recorded its highest number of new COVID-19 cases during the weekend in almost 4-months. As a result, they undermined the bullish sentiment around shared currency and held the currency pair between the thin range.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1754 1.1828 1.1894
1.1689 1.1967
1.1615 1.2033

 EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading slightly bullish at 1.1851, crossing over the resistance level of 1.1849 level. On the lower side, the EUR/USD may find support at 1.1830, while a bearish breakout of 1.1830 level can trigger selling until 1.1800 level. In case of a bullish breakout, the EUR/USD pair may begin further buying trends until 1.1880 and 1.1945 levels.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD stimulates the daily high to 1.3242, up 0.29%, while directing into the European session open. Like major pairs, the Cable restored the yearly high on Thursday ere dipping to 1.3161, which caught the two-day winning streak. After remarks from Fed Chair, the broad U.S. dollar rally pulled the quote descending the prior day. 

The greenback’s latest drops support the pair bulls before BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s address at the Jackson Hole Symposium. While running the third bullish day in the previous four, the GBP/USD prices also spend tiny heed to the Brexit distress indicated by The Times.

The final scheduled round of post-Brexit trade negotiations between the E.U. and the U.K. have already been abandoned, but ministers are expected to appear next week. Additionally, Germany’s expulsion of Brexit discussions as agenda from next week’s critical talks amongst the E.U. representatives.

Subsequently, the uproar girdling insect repellent ingredient defending against the coronavirus (COVID-19) and 21-day immunity plan represented a mild enthusiasm at home. The sentiment overlooks the biggest daily COVID-19 problems while producing 1,522 numbers for Thursday.

On the other hand, U.S. President Donald Trump addressed to end dependence on China “once and for all.” Besides, the mystic concepts of Fed Chair Powell, involving Average Inflation Targeting (AIT), appear to decrease the allure as markets start reading between the words and spot economic worries.

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3145 1.3215 1.3268
1.3092 1.3338
1.3022 1.3391

 GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has distributed the trading range of 1.3240 – 1.3180, and a bullish breakout of Cable is anticipated to lead it higher unto 1.3275 mark. On the higher side, the GBP/USD faces the next resistance at 1.3275 mark and over this level, the pair may find 1.3323 resistance. Speaking about the technical side of the market, 50 periods of EMA, RSI, and MACD suggest bullish bias in the GBP/USD pair. Today, let’s look for buying trades above 1.3275 level.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

During Thursday’s early European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair managed to stop its early-day losing streak and took modest bids near above 106.00 level mainly after the (BOJ) board member Hitoshi Suzuki expressing his take on the monetary policy outlook, which eventually undermined the Japanese yen and extended some support to the currency pair. 

 Meanwhile, the risk-off market sentiment, driven by the renewed US-China tussle and intensifying virus cases in Europe and Asia, tends to underpin the safe-haven Japanese yen and kept the currency pair sidelined. At this moment, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 106.02 and consolidating in the range between 105.81 – 106.08.

It is worth reporting that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Hitoshi Suzuki expressed his part on the monetary policy outlook while saying that “Will ease monetary policy further without hesitation with an eye on the pandemic impact on the economy. “He also added that “If BOJ were to ease more, it could use a special program for combating pandemic, cut short-, long-term interest rates or ramp up risky asset buying.” However, these statements recently weakened the Japanese yen and provided little support to the currency pair. 

Apart from this, the Takatoshi Ito, a famous economist who was once a preferred nominee to become Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor, stated that the Japanese economy could see a quicker recovery by 2022 if a vaccine becomes available. However, the currency pair failed to give any major attention to the above headlines, as it remains flat around 106.00 due to the cautious risk tone and weaker greenback ahead of the Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.

Across the pond, the failure of the American lawmakers to offer any hint on the big coronavirus (COVID-19) relief package or the highest COVID-19 new cases in Italy since May, not to forget the fresh US-China tussle over the South China Sea, all factors are weighing on the market trading sentiment, which could be considered as the main factors for the currency pair limited moves. 

At the US-China front, the Trump administration plans sanctions on those companies who are helping China to mark its existence in the South China Sea. At the same time, China fired missiles in a military drill near the South China Sea. The U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo criticized China for “coercive bullying tactics against our friends in the United Kingdom.” This also exerted a burden on the market trading sentiment. This, in turn, underpinned the safe-haven Japanese yen demand and capped upside momentum in the pair.

Despite the risk-off market sentiment, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction on the day, as well as the losses could be associated with the doubts about the U.S. economic recovery ahead of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at Thursday’s Jackson Hole symposium themed. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar became the key factor that kept the currency pair’s gain limited. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies dropped by 0.12% to 92.882 by 11:59 PM ET (4:59 AM GMT).

Looking forward, the market traders await the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech in the Jackson Hole Symposium. As well as, America’s preliminary readings of the second quarter (Q2) GDP, which is expected -32.5% versus -32.9% will be key to watch. In the meantime, the updates surrounding the fresh Sino-US tussle, this time over the South China Sea, as well as the coronavirus (COVID-19) updates, could not lose their significance.


Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.8700 106.2900 106.9700
105.1800 107.4000
104.7600 108.0800

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading bearish at 106.082 level, holding above a support level of 106, which is extended by upward channel. On the higher side, the USD/JPY expected to gain an immediate resistance around 106.566 and 107.078. Looking at the 2-hour timeframe, the 50 periods EMA is extending resistance at 106.350. Likewise, the MACD and RSI are staying in a bearish zone, beneath 50 and 0, sequentially. The USD/JPY may trade bearish below 106.350 to target 106 and 105.800. Good luck! 

 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 27 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speaks! 

On the fundamental side, the eyes will remain on the U.S. Prelim GDP, Unemployment rate, and Fed Chair Powell Speaks, which is due during the U.S. session. U.S. economy is once again expected to report a massive dip in the U.S. GDP data. At the same time, the Jobless Claims may improve a bit. Overall, the Fed Chair Powell Speaks will be the main highlight of the day as it may determine further sentiment about the U.S. dollar depending upon the dovish or hawkish tone of Powell.

On the fundamental side, the eyes will remain on the U.S. Prelim GDP, Unemployment rate, and Fed Chair Powell Speaks, which is due during the U.S. session. U.S. economy is once again expected to report a massive dip in the U.S. GDP data. At the same time, the Jobless Claims may improve a bit. Overall, the Fed Chair Powell Speaks will be the main highlight of the day as it may determine further sentiment about the U.S. dollar depending upon the dovish or hawkish tone of Powell.

On the fundamental side, the eyes will remain on the U.S. Prelim GDP, Unemployment rate, and Fed Chair Powell Speaks, which is due during the U.S. session. U.S. economy is once again expected to report a massive dip in the U.S. GDP data. At the same time, the Jobless Claims may improve a bit. Overall, the Fed Chair Powell Speaks will be the main highlight of the day as it may determine further sentiment about the U.S. dollar depending upon the dovish or hawkish tone of Powell.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

Economic Calendar by TradingView


  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.18300 after placing a high of 1.18391 and a low of 1.17720. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained flat yet slightly bearish throughout the day. The Euro to U.S. Dollar exchange rate remained flat throughout the day and dropped in late Wednesday. The EUR/USD pair lost some of its previous daily gains earned on the back of stronger than expected German GDP data for the second quarter of this year.

The President at IFO Institute, Clemens Fuest, said that the German economy was on track to recovery as the German companies assessed their current business situation markedly more positively than last month. He said that the manufacturing sector’s business climate had improved considerably; however, many manufacturers still consider their current business to be poor.

Whereas, the resurgence of coronavirus pandemic in Europe increased the concerns for another wave of the Eurozone outbreak. Spain has recorded 80,000 new coronavirus cases over the last two weeks; the rate was by far the most in Western Europe. Germany reported 1576 new cases on Wednesday and increased the total count to 236,429.

The travel warning for countries outside Europe has been extended to September 14, as announced by the German Foreign Ministry on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Health Minister Jens Spahn has said that coronavirus testing’s capacity was limited in the country. In France, the Government warned that a second wave could hit the country as early as November. Furthermore, the E.U. trade commissioner Phil Hogan resigned after the Irish Government accused him of breaching COVID-19 guidelines. He attended a golf dinner with more than 80 people in a County Galway on August 19 and was criticized for not complying with quarantine rules while traveling.

Mr. Hogan denied breaking any law and said that he should have been more rigorous concerning the COVID-19 guidelines. These virus-related concerns kept weighing on the local currency Euro and kept the pair EUR/USD under pressure throughout the day.

On the U.S. front, the U.S. dollar was low on the day ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech scheduled for Thursday. The speech is expected to be dovish and provide fresh clues about the delayed U.S. next stimulus package and is weighing on the market sentiment.

However, the U.S. macroeconomic data remained supportive of the U.S. dollar as the Core Durable Goods Orders rose to 2.4% in July from the projected 1.9% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Durable Goods Orders also raised to 11.2% from the anticipated 4.4% and supported the U.S. dollar. The U.S. data added further pressure on EUR/USD pair, and the pair moved in a downward direction in the late American session after moving sideways throughout the day.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1787 1.1814 1.1856
1.1744 1.1884
1.1717 1.1926

 EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading sideways, holding below a double top resistance area of 1.1849 level. On the downside, the EUR/USD is likely to find support at 1.1804, while a bearish breakout of 1.1804 level can trigger selling until 1.1775 level. In case of a bullish breakout, the EUR/USD pair may trigger further buying trends until 1.1879 and 1.1945 levels.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair managed to gain some positive traction and drew some modest bids near above 1.3200 level on the day mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the cautious sentiment ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. Apart from this, the lack of progress over the much-awaited U.S. fiscal stimulus also weighed on the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains.

On the contrary, the downbeat report from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) and negative remarks by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also exerted some downside pressure o the currency pair. On the other hand, the cancelation of the negotiations over the U.K. and the European Union’s post-Brexit relationship also becomes the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gain in the currency pair. At this particular time, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3207 and consolidating in the range between 1.3195 – 1.3223.

As per the CBI report, the companies reliant on spending by consumers – many of which only opened in recent weeks after the lockdown – cut jobs faster on record. However, these comments initially weighed on the currency pair. In the meantime, the OECD noted the British economy’s record quarterly fall as worrisome. In turn, this undermined the sentiment around the British Pound and contributed to the currency pair modest losses.

Also weighed on the quote was the reports that the E.U. representatives have dropped the discussions over the U.K. and the European Union’s post-Brexit relationship as a subject for the next week’s meeting. However, these gloomy headlines overshadowed the previous day’s positive comments from the Irish leader Michael Martin.

The fresh challenges to the US-China relations exerted further downside pressure on the market trading sentiment across the pond. It is worth reporting that the Trump administration considers imposing sanctions on those companies helping China mark its presence in the South China Sea. This happens after the dragon nation fired missiles in the drills around the debatable region.

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar was down on Thursday morning in Asia ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium later. Whereas, the losses in the U.S. dollar become the key factor that kept the GBP/USD currency pair higher. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies dropped by 0.12% to 92.882 by 11:59 PM ET (4:59 AM GMT).

Looking forward, the market traders await the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech in the Jackson Hole Symposium. As well as, America’s preliminary readings of the second quarter (Q2) GDP, which is expected -32.5% versus -32.9% will be key to watch. In the meantime, the updates surrounding the fresh Sino-US tussle, this time over the South China Sea, and the coronavirus (COVID-19) updates, could not lose their importance.

  

 

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3144 1.3182 1.3247
1.3079 1.3285
1.3040 1.3351

 GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has distrub[ted the narrow trading range of 1.3140 – 1.3056, and upward breakout of GBP/USD is expected to lead the Cable prices further higher until 1.3262 mark. On the upper side, the GBP/USD pair may face the next resistance around 1.3262 mark and above this 1.3295. Technically, 50 periods of EMA, RSI, and MACD all are suggesting a bullish trends in the GBP/USD pair. Let’s look for buying trades above 1.3146 level.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY was closed at 105.985 after placing a high of 106.554 and a low of 105.954. After posting gains for three consecutive days, USD/JPY pair declined on Wednesday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday.

The traders were selling USD/JPY pair over the rising hopes that a next stimulus package was on its way. As in result, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell by 0.1% against its rival currencies and weighed further on the U.S. dollar that dragged the currency pair on the low side.

The Chairman of Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will deliver a speech via video conference at Jackson Hole Symposium on the next day and provide an annual central bank’s monetary policy framework review.

Investors believe that the speech will make a strong case about the monetary stimulus, so they are awaiting it to find fresh clues about how the Fed will support the economy further through the coronavirus pandemic crisis.

Another reason behind waiting for the Fed’s Chair Powell’s speech is to determine whether Fed will favor shifting from a long-run inflation target of 2% to an average level of inflation as it will raise inflation and will make the U.S. dollar weak before raised interest rates.

The U.S. dollar was lower on the day ahead of the next stimulus measure as Powell’s dovish expectations increased. If Powell’s speech provided the expected clues, then the U.S. dollar will fell even more and weighed on USD/JPY to move it below 104 level.

Whereas, on the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the SPPI for the year from Japan rose to 1.2% from the expected 0.8% and supported Japanese Yen and added losses in currency pair. From the U.S. side, the Core Durable Orders for July rose to 2.4% from the expected 1.9% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Durable Goods Orders for July also rose to 11.2% from the estimated 4.4% and supported the U.S. dollar. The strong U.S. dollar capped additional losses in the USD/JPY on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the additional losses in currency pair were supported by the rising tensions between the U.S. & China. On Wednesday, 24 Chinese companies were penalized by the Trump Administration due to their contribution to China’s controversial island-building campaign.

The U.S. banned Chinese companies from buying the U.S. products citing their role in helping the Chinese military construct artificial islands in the disputed South China Sea. The U.S. had already penalized dozens of Chinese companies over national security concerns and violations of human rights, and now China’s encroachment in the South China Sea has also added in it. Now it is remained to see the response of China over this penalty by the U.S. The ongoing tensions between the U.S. & China added strength in Japanese Yen that further supported the USD/JPY pair’s bearish trend on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the risk sentiment that took its pace yesterday on the back of renewed hopes on the vaccine was faded away after the latest warning from the top U.S. virus expert Dr. Anthony Fauci. He said that before the vaccine’s approval for safety and efficiency, the usage of vaccines could be harmful. He warned that it could affect the development of other vaccines.

President Donald Trump had considered plans to put out a vaccine before it was tested and approved to increase his re-election chances in upcoming November’s presidential elections. Democrats have blamed Trump for endangering American lives for political gain. It has also weighed on risk sentiment and added in the currency pairs losses on Wednesday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.7600 106.1600 106.3700
105.5500 106.7700
105.1500 106.9800

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is consolidating in an upward channel, which is supporting the pair at 105.820. On the upper side, the USD/JPY is likely to gain an immediate resistance around 106.566 as well as 107.078. Looking at

the 2-hour chart, the 50 periods EMA is extending resistance at 106.069. Simultaneously, the MACD and RSI are holding in a selling zone, below 50 and 0, respectively. The USD/JPY may trade bullish over 105.850 to target 107.084 and selling below 105.829. Good luck! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 26 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Durable Goods Orders In Highlights! 

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the U.S. fundamentals, especially the Durable Goods Orders m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, which are expected to report negative data and may drive selling bias for the U.S. .dollar.

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the U.S. fundamentals, especially the Durable Goods Orders m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, which are expected to report negative data and may drive selling bias for the U.S. .dollar.

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the U.S. fundamentals, especially the Durable Goods Orders m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, which are expected to report negative data and may drive selling bias for the U.S. .dollar.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.18336 after placing a high of 1.18435 and a low of 1.17840. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair gained traction and raised on Tuesday after falling for two consecutive days. The rise in the EUR/USD pair was due to improved risk appetite in the market after the U.S. & China both held the trade talks and confirmed their commitment to trade deal.

Meanwhile, the potential vaccine for coronavirus and the distribution of vaccine doses to worldwide raised optimism and helped risk sentiment that also added further in the gains of riskier asset EUR/USD pair.

The U.S. & China said they were making progress in trade talks despite other tensions, which added further in the optimism. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that a constructive dialogue between both sides had pushed the trade deal forward.

As in result, the U.S. Treasury yields rose but failed to raise the U.S. dollar as the disappointing release of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence depressed the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the highlighted C.B. Consumer Confidence data fell in August to 84.8 from the anticipated 93.0 and weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar that added gains in the EUR/USD pair.

On the other hand, from the European side, the German Final GDP for the second quarter contracted less than it was expected and supported Euro currency. The forecasted GDP was -10.1% but, in actuality, came in as -9.7% and supported the single currency. The German Ifo Business Climate Index in August exceeded the expectations of 92.2 and came in as 92.6 and supported Euro currency that further added gains in the EUR/USD pair.

Furthermore, the risk sentiment was also supported by the positive news regarding the vaccine and its distribution from the World Health Organization. Investors cheered the COVAX facility initiative that would allow the worldwide equal distribution of vaccine doses in collaboration with the vaccine manufacturers.

WHO said that 172 countries were engaged in talks to participate in the COVAX facility, and nine vaccine candidates have already joined it while nine were under evaluation. It also added that significant producers were under discussion to join the facility. The worldwide equal and fair distribution of vaccines will help recover the economy and bounce back from the pandemic. This raised risk sentiment and pushed the EUR/USD riskier asset in the upward direction on Tuesday. Apart from this, the investors will be watching the speech of Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday at Jackson Hole Symposium to find fresh clues about the U.S. dollar.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1795 1.1820 1.1857
1.1758 1.1882
1.1733 1.1919

 EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias amid stronger U.S. dollar at 1.1810, holding right above the triple bottom support area of 1.1804 level. Closing of candles above this level can drive bullish correction until 1.1840, while the violation of the 1.1804 level can trigger selling unto 1.1785 level. On the 2 hour chart, the EUR/USD pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which also extends resistance at 1.1847. Let’s wait for a bullish or a bearish breakout before placing any major trade in the EUR/USD. 

  

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

 The GBP/USD closed at 1.31505 after placing a high of 1.31703 and a low of 1.30539. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. After falling for two consecutive days, GBP/USD pair surged and posted gains and recovered almost more than half of the previous two day’s losses on Tuesday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness.

The U.S. dollar was weak as the Consumer Confidence from August declined, and the safe-haven status of greenback suffered because of risk-on market sentiment. The risk appetite increased after the U.S. & China confirmed their commitment towards the phase-one trade deal on Tuesday. Despite ongoing tensions, both sides assured to comply with their promises made in the phase-one trade deal agreement and released some tension from the market.

This raised risk appetite and the risk-sensitive GBP/USD pair gained from this situation. Meanwhile, the potential vaccine development and its distribution in the whole world to fight the pandemic also raised risk sentiment and added in the pair gains.

Whereas on Brexit front, the top Tory and former Brexit Secretary David Davis warned that it was a critical endgame, and the U.K. will soon have to be preparing for talks to collapse. As both sides have earmarked October as a deadline, and the last three weeks will matter more than the first three years of talks.

He added that if Europe continued to follow Barnier’s strategy, then we could end up with a no-deal scenario, and the Europeans will lose a large and very profitable marketplace, namely the United Kingdom. They will lose the most efficient financial market; they will lose access to British fisheries and funding that was agreed under the Withdrawal Agreement. The funding was agreed on the presumption that both sides would get a trade deal, a political promise that the E.U. has failed to keep.

The U.K.’s negotiator David Frost had provided a draft text last week to speed up the talks, but E.U. negotiator Micheal Barnier dismissed it as unrealistic and urged E.U. states to stay cold-blooded. Barnier said that U.K.’s strategy would be to trade fishing access for freedom from E.U. rules at the last minute.

Meanwhile, at an informal meeting, the colleague of Mr. Barnier, Eurasia Group analyst, Mujtaba Rahman, said that the trade-off concerning state aid and fishing rights as possible, but it will take time. He claimed that the prospect of no-deal with the risk of delay at the border and food shortages would be a huge concern for Boris Johnson and his government, pushing him to compromise.

Both sides are reluctant to lose their demands and the time is falling short, it is now unclear whether they would reach an agreement. However, investors are cheering the other risk-related news and ignoring the Brexit progress as it has stalled.

On the data front, at 15:00 GMT, the CBI Realized Sales from Britain declined to -6 from the expected 7 in August and weighed heavily on the local currency that kept the currency pair gains limited. From the U.S., the Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board was declined to 84.8 from the projected 93.0 and the previous 91.7 and weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar as this report was highlighted on Tuesday. The weak U.S. dollar added further in the GBP/USD pair’s gains.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3079 1.3125 1.3196
1.3008 1.3242
1.2962 1.3313

 GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has violated the sideways trading range of 1.3120 – 1.3056 level, and bullish breakout of GBP/USD pair is likely to lead the Sterling prices towards the next target 1.3262 level. On the higher side, the next resistance is likely to be found around 1.3262 level. The 50 EMA and the technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, and 50 periods of EMA suggest a bullish bias in the Cable. Let’s consider taking buying trades above 1.3120 level.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 106.387 after placing a high of 106.575 and a low of 105.870. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair climbed to a fresh weekly high on Tuesday at 106.57 despite the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The rise in currency pair could be attributed to the risk-on market sentiment that weighed on safe-haven Japanese Yen and contributed to the currency pair’s gains.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was down on Tuesday by 0.33% on 92.98 level, but it could not stop USD/JPY pair to post gains on the day as the risk-on market environment made it difficult for safe-haven Japanese Yen to find demand in the market.

On the data front, at 10:00 GMT, the core Consumer Price Index for the year from Bank of Japan dropped to 0.0% in August from the anticipated 0.1% and weighed on Japanese Yen and added further in USD/JPY pair’s gains.

On the U.S. side, the Housing Price Index rose to 0.9% in June from the anticipated o.3% and supported the U.S. dollar. At 18:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index also rose to 18 points from 10 in the forecast and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the C.B. Consumer Confidence declined to 84.8 from the projected 93.0 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The New Home Sales increased to 901K from the expected 787K and supported the U.S. dollar.

Most of the economic data from the U.S. came in favor of the U.S. dollar on Tuesday and helped USD/JPY gain traction. Meanwhile, the improving market risk sentiment played an important role in increasing the USD/JPY currency pair prices. The risk appetite was raised in the market after the WHO released an initiative of equal and fair distribution of vaccine to countries worldwide along with the positive statement from both the U.S. & China about the trade deal.

According to the World Health Organization, 172 countries and multiple candidate vaccines were involved in talks to make the global access of vaccines easy and fair by participating in the COVAX facility. COVAX facility is an initiative to provide safe & effective vaccines after getting license and approval to countries around the world by working with vaccine manufacturers. For now, nine candidate vaccines have entered the initiative, and further nine are under evaluation while the major producers are under conversation to join the COVAX facility.

This raised hopes for the equal and easy distribution of vaccine doses not only in a few major countries but to each country worldwide. The fact that it will help recovery boosts the equity market, and hence, safe-haven Japanese Yen came under heavy selling pressure and raised USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the video conference that was canceled by President Donald Trump on August 15 was held on Tuesday between U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment toward the phase-one trade deal even China has been lagging of the target of purchasing U.S. farm goods.

However, in the lingering US-china tensions, a positive statement from both sides gave a heavy selling pressure on safe-haven appeal and raised the risk sentiment helping USD/JPY pair to extend its daily gains.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.9500 106.2700 106.6800
105.5500 106.9900
105.2300 107.4000

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading within an upward channel, which is supporting the pair at 106.230. On the higher side, the USD/JPY may find an immediate resistance at 106.566 and 107.078. On the 2 hour chart, the 50 periods EMA is extending the buying trend in the USD/JPY pair. At the same time, the MACD and RSI are contradicting as the MACD suggests selling while the RSI is holding in a buying zone. The USD/JPY may trade bullish over 106.200 to target 107.084. Good luck! 

 

Categories
Forex Signals

Hard luck with GBP/USD Signal – Sudden Spike Hit Stop Loss! 

The GBP/USD managed to extend its early-day gains and drew some bids on the day essentially due to the broad-based U.S. dollar instability, triggered by the market upbeat trading sentiment. Besides this, the long-lasting deadlock surrounding the much-awaited U.S. fiscal stimulus also weighed on the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. On the contrary, the long-term Brexit woes became the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. Also, the Brexit fears overshadowed British business houses’ optimism, as shown by the government data. At this particular time, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3085 and consolidating in the range between 1.3054 – 1.3115.

The GBP/USD managed to extend its early-day gains and drew some bids on the day essentially due to the broad-based U.S. dollar instability, triggered by the market upbeat trading sentiment. Besides this, the long-lasting deadlock surrounding the much-awaited U.S. fiscal stimulus also weighed on the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. On the contrary, the long-term Brexit woes became the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. Also, the Brexit fears overshadowed British business houses’ optimism, as shown by the government data. At this particular time, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3085 and consolidating in the range between 1.3054 – 1.3115.

The GBP/USD managed to extend its early-day gains and drew some bids on the day essentially due to the broad-based U.S. dollar instability, triggered by the market upbeat trading sentiment. Besides this, the long-lasting deadlock surrounding the much-awaited U.S. fiscal stimulus also weighed on the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. On the contrary, the long-term Brexit woes became the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. Also, the Brexit fears overshadowed British business houses’ optimism, as shown by the government data. At this particular time, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3085 and consolidating in the range between 1.3054 – 1.3115.

The coronavirus vaccine hopes were supporting the market trading sentiment. The U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA) authorized the use of blood plasma from recovered patients as a treatment option, which eventually overshadowed the fears of rising coronavirus cases in Asia and Europe. Apart from this, the Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) ‘s press release on Monday, saying that the Cambridge, MA-based company is in “advanced exploratory discussions with the E.U. Commission to supply 80 million doses of mRNA-1273, Moderna’s vaccine candidate against COVID-19, as part of the European Commission’s goal to ensure early access to safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines for Europe.” 

At the US-China front, the latest remarks between the U.S. and Chinese trade representatives refreshing optimism surrounding the phase one trade deal. The Dragon Nation recently confirmed that the trade deal between the US-China remains intact. He further added that China and the U.S. had a constructive conversation on the trade agreement. As per the keywords, “China says both sides agreed to continue pushing forward implementation of phase 1 trade deal.” This, in turn, underpinned the market sentiment and sent the U.S. dollar down. Also, supporting the market trading sentiment could be the news that the virus cases in Florida and the U.K. are receding off-late.

On the other hand, the market did not give any major attention to the American health official’s warning to Trump administration’s rush for coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine. It s worth reporting that Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told yesterday that rushing out vaccines could undermine trials of other promising candidates.

At the Brexit front, the fears of the no-deal Brexit were further fueled after the failure of the 7th round to reach any agreements by the European Union (E.U.) and the U.K.’s policymaker. Whereas, both parties EU-UK are alleged to each other for the failure. Thus these fears become the key factor that capped further upside in the currency pair. 

The losses in the U.S. dollar could also be attributed to the uptick in the U.S. stock futures. Whereas, the U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies dropped by 0.11% to 93.207 by 9:48 PM ET (2:48 AM GM


Moving ahead, the market traders will keep their eyes on the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, which is scheduled to open on Thursday. The U.S. August consumer confidence is due later in the day and will be key to watch. In the meantime, the USD moves and coronavirus headlines will also closely followed as they could play a key role in the gold run-up.

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3138, holding right below a double top resistance level of 1.3144. We decided to take a selling trade below 1.3144 level, but unfortunately, the pair spiked sharply to test a high of 1.3170 level, which hit our stop loss. But right after hitting our stop loss, the Cable again reversed to trade below 1.3144. The GBP/USD is still holding below 1.3144, but the pair is forming bullish candles so that we may have a bullish trend continuation in the market. Let’s wait for a proper setup. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 25 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Consumer Confidence in Focus! 

On the news front, the economic calendar is a bit busy today, and it may offer a medium impact on economic events from the U.S. and Eurozone. During the European session, the focus will remain on the German Final GDP q/q and German Ifo Business Climate data, while the U.S. C.B. Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales from the U.S. will be released during the New York session today. The dollar can gain straighten on positive forecasts.

On the news front, the economic calendar is a bit busy today, and it may offer a medium impact on economic events from the U.S. and Eurozone. During the European session, the focus will remain on the German Final GDP q/q and German Ifo Business Climate data, while the U.S. C.B. Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales from the U.S. will be released during the New York session today. The dollar can gain straighten on positive forecasts.

On the news front, the economic calendar is a bit busy today, and it may offer a medium impact on economic events from the U.S. and Eurozone. During the European session, the focus will remain on the German Final GDP q/q and German Ifo Business Climate data, while the U.S. C.B. Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales from the U.S. will be released during the New York session today. The dollar can gain straighten on positive forecasts.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.17953 after placing a high of 1.18828 and a low of 1.17539. Overall the movement of EUR/USD remained bearish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair dropped on Friday and bottomed at 1.1753; it’s lowest since August 12. A stronger U.S. dollar and the poor economic data from Europe weighed on EUR/USD pair.

At 12:15 GMT, the French Flash Services PMI for August fell to 51.9 from the expected 56.3, and the previous 57.3, weighed on Euro. The French Flash Manufacturing PMI also declined to 49.0 against the estimated 53.0 and previous 52.4 and added pressure on single currency Euro.

At 12:30 GMT, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.0 from the anticipated 52.2 and supported Euro; however, the German Flash Services PMI came in as 50.8 against the expected 55.3 and weighed on Euro on Friday.

At 13:00, the Flash Manufacturing PMI for the whole Eurozone declined to 51.7 in August from the projected 52.7 and previous 51.8. The Flash Services PMI for the whole bloc also fell to 50.1 against the forecasted 54.6 and added pressure on EUR.

Apart from German Manufacturing PMI, all the PMI from the whole bloc, including biggest economies, came in against EUR, and hence, EUR/USD pair suffered. The data showed that only German manufacturing activity was expanded in August. At the same time, other countries, along with whole euro bloc’s manufacturing & services activities, were contracted in August. Meanwhile, the greenback was the top performer on Friday with DXY up by 0.5% on 93.5 level, the highest since Monday. The U.S. Dollar was already supported by the release of Fed Meeting minutes on Wednesday, and on Friday, the support was extended after the release of positive PMI and Home Sales data.

At 18:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI and the Flash Services PMI were released from the U.S. The Manufacturing PMI surged to 53.6 against the expected 51.9, and the Services PMI was surged to 54.u from the 50.9 forecasted. The expansion in the Manufacturing & Services sector of the U.S. gave strength to the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the Existing Home Sales in July exceeded the expectations of 5.40M and came in as 5.86Mand supported the U.S. dollar.

The strong U.S. dollar exerted more pressure on EUR.USD prices and dragged them down at the ending day of the week. Meanwhile, the Euro currency was also under pressure because of the resurgence of coronavirus cases in Europe. In recent days France, Germany, and Italy have experienced their highest daily case counts since the spring, and Spain has found itself amid a major outbreak.

Over the past two weeks, Spain has seen Europe’s fastest rising caseload with 142 positive cases per 100,000 people. The number had risen more than 3,000 by the time the state of emergency ended on June 21.

The EUR/USD pair was also under pressure on Friday because of the possible entry of a new phase of the pandemic in Europe. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1787 1.1797 1.1807
1.1777 1.1817
1.1767 1.1827

 EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair fell sharply from 1.1954 level to 1.1790 level. For now, the pair is likely to find an immediate resistance at 1.1806 level, and a bullish breakout of 1.1806 level can lead EUR/USD prices towards 1.1886 level. On the lower side, the violation of the 1.1751 level can extend the selling trend until 1.1706.

  

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

 The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.30627 after placing a high of 1.31488 and a low of 1.30534. Overall, the movement of the GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair extended its previous day losses and fell further on Monday to a low of 1.3053 level. In the absence of significant macroeconomic data from the U.K. or U.S., the greenback’s market valuation remained the sole driver of GBP/USD pair on the day.

The U.S. Dollar Index dropped below 93 levels during the first half of the day because of upbeat market sentiment. The risk sentiment was fueled after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced on Sunday that it had approved the blood-plasma treatment for coronavirus patients in case of emergency.

The blood plasma from the recovered patients of the virus could increase the health and decrease the morality, and it was approved to use for severe or emergency cases of coronavirus in America. This method has been used in many countries, and the USA has approved it now. U.S. President Donald Trump urged the recovered patients of coronavirus to donate their blood plasma so that fight against coronavirus pandemic could take its pace and recovery chances could increase.

The risk perceived GBP/USD pair gained from this news and rose in the early session on Monday; however, in late American sessions, the rising U.S. Treasury bond yields helped the U.S. dollar to gain traction and lifted the U.S. dollar Index. The DXY moved to a high of 93.30 and was up by 0.06% whereas, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield was up by more than 2% on Monday.

The strong U.S. dollar in late session exerted pressure on GBP/USD pair that pulled its prices towards the downward track and hence paired posted losses.

Meanwhile, an internal British government document was leaked on the U.K. tabloid “The Sun” that allegedly outlined the country’s plans in a reasonable worst-case scenario. The second wave of coronavirus, along with the severe flooding and the flu with a no-deal Brexit, could cause a systematic economic crisis. According to that document, the major impact will be on unemployment, disposable incomes, business activity, international trade, and market stability.

The document said that social distancing & mask-wearing would be continued until 2021. The government document also revealed that the navy would be deployed to prevent illegal European fishing boats from clashing with British vessels. The document was dated as of July 2020, and also said that if the U.K. and E.U. failed to reach a post-Brexit trade deal, then hard borders and tariffs will come into effect on January 1, 2021.

Trade talks between both parties have stalled with no breakthrough in sight and the chief Brexit negotiator of European Union, Micheal Barnier has said that the talks were going even backward instead of moving forward. At the same time, the U.K. negotiator, David Frost, said that a little progress had been made. Both sides provide mixed views and raise the confusion amongst investors that have been weighing on GBP/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3082 1.3092 1.3103
1.3071 1.3113
1.3062 1.3124

 GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading sideways above a strong support level if 1.3072. The support here is extended by 1.3074 level, where the bearish breakout of 1.3074 level can extend selling unto 1.3007 level. On the higher side, the next resistance is likely to be found around 1.3155 level. The 50 EMA and the technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, and 50 periods of EMA suggest a selling bias in the Cable. Let’s consider taking selling trades below 1.3075 level, while buying can be seen if the GBP/USD pair continues to close candles over 1.3075 level. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.979 after placing a high of 105.995 and a low of 105.687. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair posted small gains on Monday amid the risk-on market sentiment after the FDA approved of coronavirus treatment. However, the lingering US-China tensions and the fact that the U.S. Congress was far from giving any news about the next stimulus kept the market risk sentiment limited.

The U.S. Dollar Index was up on Monday to 93.2 level, and the USD/JPY pair also rose because of improved demand for the U.S. dollar.

However, the main reason for the upward trend was a possible coronavirus treatment that was already being used in different countries. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved the use of blood plasma from recovered patients to treat severely ill coronavirus patients.

The FDA approved this treatment only in case of an emergency and to recover the most severe cases. Whereas, President Donald Trump appealed to the Americans who have recovered from viruses to donate plasma.

This raised the market risk sentiment and weighed on safe-haven Japanese Yen that ultimately pushed the USD/JPY pair on high.

Japanese Yen remained on the back foot on Monday with global equity indexes posting gains at the start of the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up by 0.8%, and the S&P 500 was up by 0.7% on Monday amid improved risk appetite.

Meanwhile, the next stimulus package was still not announced by the U.S. Congress as both Republicans & Democrats were having differences in the size of the package. On the US-China front, the United States and China have already signed the phase one trade deal earlier this year, and China has trouble living up to it. Beijing is supposed to increase the purchase of U.S. exports by 200 Billion U.S. dollars by the end of 2021 in exchange for tariff cuts on Chinese goods by the U.S.

Last week, both parties were scheduled to hold a video conference meeting to discuss the implementations of the phase-one trade deal and issue a review of its progress. But the meeting was canceled by the U.S. President Donald Trump in anger over Beijing for the pandemic outbreak.

The Trump administration has also denied rescheduling the meeting, and it is expected that the review will not be issued. This also raised the uncertainty and kept the risk sentiment under pressure that limited the gains in the USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.7700 105.8500 105.9500
105.6700 106.0300
105.6000 106.1300

 

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY is trading sideways in a broad trading range of 106.300 to 105.240. At the movement, the USD/JPY is tossing above and below 50 periods EMA, while the RSI and MACD are in support of a neutral trend. The recent series of Doji and Shooting start candles are suggesting indecision among traders. Sooner or later, we may see USD/JPY prices break out of the range. Once it happens, the USD/JPY may trade bullish over 106.300 to target 107.084. On the lower side, violation of 105.240 level can drive selling unto 104.300. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

GBP/USD Trading Bullish – Fibonacci Retracement in Play! 

Today in the early European trading hours, the GBP/USD currency pair managed to stop its early-day losing streak and drew some modest bids on the day mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the market upbeat trading sentiment. The long-lasting deadlock surrounding the much-awaited U.S. fiscal stimulus also weighed on the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

Today in the early European trading hours, the GBP/USD currency pair managed to stop its early-day losing streak and drew some modest bids on the day mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the market upbeat trading sentiment. The long-lasting deadlock surrounding the much-awaited U.S. fiscal stimulus also weighed on the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

Today in the early European trading hours, the GBP/USD currency pair managed to stop its early-day losing streak and drew some modest bids on the day mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the market upbeat trading sentiment. The long-lasting deadlock surrounding the much-awaited U.S. fiscal stimulus also weighed on the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

On the other hand, the bullish sentiment around the currency pair was further bolstered by the reports that the U.K. was looking forward to record-breaking economic growth in the 3rd-quarter, as per the study by the City of London economists. On the contrary, the long-lasting Brexit woes became the key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the currency pair. At this particular time, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3108 and consolidating in the range between 1.3083 – 1.3115.

The coronavirus vaccine hopes have been supporting the market trading sentiment on the day. As per the latest report, the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA) authorized the use of blood plasma from recovered patients as a treatment option. Also supporting the market trading sentiment could be the reports that the Trump Administration was considering by-passing normal U.S. regulatory standards to fast-track an innovative coronavirus vaccine from the U.K. This, in turn, undermined the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributed to the pair gains.

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar could not maintain its positive sentiment and edged lower on the day as doubts over the U.S. economic recovery exceeded amid on-going failure over the much-awaited aid package. The losses in the U.S. dollar could also be attributed to the uptick in the U.S. stock futures. The losses in the U.S. dollar kept the currency pair higher. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the USD against a bucket of other currencies was down to 93.102.

At the Brexit front, the fears of the no-deal Brexit were further fueled after Friday’s failure to reach any agreements by the European Union (E.U.) and the U.K.’s policymaker. Whereas, both parties EU-UK blaming each other for the failure of reaching a deal. Thus these fears capped further upside in the currency pair. 

On the positive side, the currency pair gains could also be associated with the reports that the U.K. is set for record-breaking economic growth in the third quarter as per the study by the City of London economists. It should be noted that the Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) gain optimism, though slowly, with the latest score of 95 at the start of the 3rd-quarter. Moreover, the Financial Times (F.T.) also shared that the U.K. seems to be on track to enjoy a record-breaking economic recovery in the 3rd-quarter, backed by consumers who are spending again after easing lockdowns restrictions and a planned reopening of schools.

Apart from this, the fears of coronavirus also decreased in the U.K. after seen the low pace in cases. According to the latest report, 1,041 new cases, down from 1,288 on Saturday, as per Reuters. In the absence of the significant data/events on the day, the market traders will focus on the upcoming speech of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium on Thursday. As well as, the USD moves and coronavirus headlines will also closely followed ahead as they could play a key role.


The GBP/USD pair is trading sideways above a strong support level if 1.3072. The support here is extended by 1.3074 level, where the bearish breakout of 1.3074 level can extend selling unto 1.3007 level. On the higher side, the next resistance is likely to be found around 1.3155 level. The 50 EMA and the technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, and 50 periods of EMA suggest a selling bias in the Cable. Let’s consider taking selling trades below 1.3075 level, while buying can be seen if the GBP/USD pair continues to close candles over 1.3075 level. 

Entry Price – Buy 1.31144
Stop Loss – 1.30744
Take Profit – 1.31544
Risk to Reward – 1:1
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

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Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 24 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Choppy Sessions In Play! 

On the news front, the market isn’t expected to offer any major economic event today; therefore, most of the market movement is likely to be based upon technical levels. Choppy sessions are expected today.

On the news front, the market isn’t expected to offer any major economic event today; therefore, most of the market movement is likely to be based upon technical levels. Choppy sessions are expected today.

On the news front, the market isn’t expected to offer any major economic event today; therefore, most of the market movement is likely to be based upon technical levels. Choppy sessions are expected today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD closed at 1.17953 after placing a high of 1.18828 and a low of 1.17539. Overall the movement of EUR/USD remained bearish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair dropped on Friday and bottomed at 1.1753; it’s lowest since August 12. A stronger U.S. dollar and the poor economic data from Europe weighed on EUR/USD pair.

At 12:15 GMT, the French Flash Services PMI for August fell to 51.9 from the expected 56.3, and the previous 57.3, weighed on Euro. The French Flash Manufacturing PMI also declined to 49.0 against the estimated 53.0 and previous 52.4 and added pressure on single currency Euro.

At 12:30 GMT, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.0 from the anticipated 52.2 and supported Euro; however, the German Flash Services PMI came in as 50.8 against the expected 55.3 and weighed on Euro on Friday.

At 13:00, the Flash Manufacturing PMI for the whole Eurozone declined to 51.7 in August from the projected 52.7 and previous 51.8. The Flash Services PMI for the whole bloc also fell to 50.1 against the forecasted 54.6 and added pressure on EUR.

Apart from German Manufacturing PMI, all the PMI from the whole bloc, including biggest economies, came in against EUR, and hence, EUR/USD pair suffered. The data showed that only German manufacturing activity was expanded in August. At the same time, other countries, along with whole euro bloc’s manufacturing & services activities, were contracted in August. Meanwhile, the greenback was the top performer on Friday with DXY up by 0.5% on 93.5 level, the highest since Monday.

The U.S. Dollar was already supported by the release of Fed Meeting minutes on Wednesday, and on Friday, the support was extended after the release of positive PMI and Home Sales data.

At 18:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI and the Flash Services PMI were released from the U.S. The Manufacturing PMI surged to 53.6 against the expected 51.9, and the Services PMI was surged to 54.u from the 50.9 forecasted. The expansion in the Manufacturing & Services sector of the U.S. gave strength to the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the Existing Home Sales in July exceeded the expectations of 5.40M and came in as 5.86Mand supported the U.S. dollar.

The strong U.S. dollar exerted more pressure on EUR.USD prices and dragged them down at the ending day of the week. Meanwhile, the Euro currency was also under pressure because of the resurgence of coronavirus cases in Europe. In recent days France, Germany, and Italy have experienced their highest daily case counts since the spring, and Spain has found itself amid a major outbreak.

Over the past two weeks, Spain has seen Europe’s fastest rising caseload with 142 positive cases per 100,000 people. The number had risen more than 3,000 by the time the state of emergency ended on June 21.

The EUR/USD pair was also under pressure on Friday because of the possible entry of a new phase of the pandemic in Europe. 

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1787 1.1797 1.1807
1.1777 1.1817
1.1767 1.1827

 EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair fell sharply from 1.1954 level to 1.1790 level. For now, the pair is likely to find an immediate resistance at 1.1806 level, and a bullish breakout of 1.1806 level can lead EUR/USD prices towards 1.1886 level. On the lower side, the violation of the 1.1751 level can extend the selling trend until 1.1706.

  

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

 The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.30884 after placing a high of 1.32550 and a low of 1.30588. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. At 04:01 GMT, the GfK Consumer Confidence in August declined to -27 against the forecasted -25 and weighed on British Pound and added in the losses of GBP/USD pair. At 11:00 GMT, the Public Sector Net Borrowing increased to 25.9B from the expected 28.3B and supported British Pound. The Retail Sales for July also increased to 3.6% from the forecasted 2.0% and supported British Pound.

At 13:30 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing MI from Britain exceeded the expectations of 54.0 and came in as 55.3 and supported GBP. The Flash Services PMI also rose to 60.1 against the estimated 57.0 and supported GBP. At 15:00 GMT, the CBI Industrial Order Expectation in August was declined to -44 from the anticipated -34 and weighed on GBP/USD pair and added in its losses on Friday.

On the other hand, at 18:45 GTM, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. surged to 53.6 from the anticipated 51.9 and supported the U.S. dollar that weighed on currency pair. The Flash Services PMI also surged to 54.8 against the anticipated 50.9 and supported the U.S. dollar. The Existing Home Sales exceeded the estimate of 5.40M and came in as 5.86M and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately weighed on GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, on Brexit front, On Friday, the British and European Union negotiator made slight progress towards the post-Brexit trade deal in talks this week. Both sides were concerned that time to reach an agreement was running out before an end-year deadline.

The E.U. Chief negotiator, Micheal Barnier, said that those who were hoping for negotiations to move swiftly forward this week would be disappointed. However, his British counterpart, David Frost, said that a deal on post-Brexit relations was still possible and was still London’s goal, but it would not be easy to achieve.

Frost said that several significant areas remain to be resolved, and even when there was a broad understanding between negotiators, there was still much work to do as a time for both sides was short.

Britain shifted to be the leading country to ever leave the European Union on January 31 after 46 years of membership. Both sides are now negotiating a new partnership to be effective from 2021 on everything from trade and transport to energy and security. If both sides failed to reach an agreement, Britain would follow the World Trade Organization’s rules.

The attest round of talks between the U.K. & E.U. was also not fruitful, and it has decreased hopes for a post-Brexit deal. It means the hopes about the no-Brexit deal returned in the market and weighed on GBP/USD pair that caused a sudden fall in its prices on Friday.

The U.K. economy is also under pressure as the furlough scheme that has protected millions of jobs is scheduled to end in October. This would hit the labor market and increase unemployment, making it difficult to recover from the record 20% slump in the second quarter of this year.

These fears have also weighed on single currency Pound and kept the pair GBP/USD under pressure.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3082 1.3092 1.3103
1.3071 1.3113
1.3062 1.3124

 GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Monday, the GBP/USD pair is trading sideways above a strong support level if 1.3072. The support here is extended by 1.3074 level, where the bearish breakout of 1.3074 level can extend selling unto 1.3007 level. On the higher side, the next resistance is likely to be found around 1.3155 level. The 50 EMA and the technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, and 50 periods of EMA suggest a selling bias in the Cable. Let’s consider taking selling trades below 1.3075 level, while buying can be seen if the GBP/USD pair continues to close candles over 1.3075 level. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.789 after placing a high of 106.070 and a low of 105.439. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained almost flat yet slightly bullish. On Friday, the USD/JPY pair dropped in the first half of the day after the release of Japanese Manufacturing PMI and the persisting uncertainty due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, in the second half of the day, the USD/JPY pair recovered its early daily losses and rose to post slight gains amid better than expected U.S. economic data.

AT 04:30 GMT, the National Core CPI for the year declined to 0.0% from the estimated 0.1% and weighed on Japanese Yen. At 05:30 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from Japan in August rose to 46.6 against the estimated 45.0 and came in favor of Japanese Yen. The improvement in the manufacturing sector in Japan gave a push to Japanese Yen and dragged the pair USD/JPY to the lower level near 105.400.

However, after the release of positive macroeconomic data from the U.S., the USD/JPY pair started to rise and converted its daily losses in gains. At 18:45 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI in August rose to 53.6 against the projected 51.9, and the Flash Services PMI rose to 54.8 against the anticipated 50.9.

The expansion in the U.S. manufacturing and services sector gave strength to the U.S. dollar that was more supported by the release of U.S. Existing Home Sales data. The Existing Home Sales in the U.S. for July rose to 5.86M from the anticipated 5.40M and gave a push to the U.S. dollar that added strength in USD/JPY pair.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that measures the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six major currencies rose by0.5% on Friday towards 93.5 level. It also helped USD/JPY pair to recover some of its daily losses on Friday.

Meanwhile, the ongoing geopolitical tensions between U.S. & China, along with the U.S. & Iran tensions, also kept the pair USD/JPY under pressure at the ending day of the week. On the US-China front, the US Trump administration denied acknowledging the plans to meet China over the discussion of implementations of the phase-one trade deal. The U.S. Commerce ministry spokesman Gao Feng said that in the coming days, the U.S. & China would hold meetings to discuss phase one trade deal.

However, the denial of any such meeting by Trump Administration added uncertainty in the market and kept the pair USD/JPY under pressure.

N the other hand, the U.S. called all U.N. sanctions to be restored on Iran after a violation of the 2015 nuclear deal. However, 13 out of 15 U.N. council members wrote against the U.S.’s request to impose sanctions on Iran as in 2018; the U.S. ended its legal terms with the 2015 nuclear deal by calling it the worst deal ever.

Meanwhile, the Chairman of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, Guo Shuqing said that the U.S. had placed domestic laws above international laws, which will affect the Chinese people and affect the whole world people including Americans. Shuqing also mentions that these sanctions by the U.S. on Hong Kong lacked legality and violated the market economy’s principles. The ongoing geopolitical tensions increased the uncertainty, which supported the Japanese Yen safe0haven status and contributed to the flat movement of the USD/JPY pair on Friday.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.7700 105.8500 105.9500
105.6700 106.0300
105.6000 106.1300

 

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading sideways in a broad trading range of 106.300 to 105.240. At the movement, the USD/JPY is tossing above and below 50 periods EMA, while the RSI and MACD are in support of a neutral trend. The recent series of Doji and Shooting start candles are suggesting indecision among traders. Sooner or later, we may see USD/JPY prices break out of the range. Once it happens, the USD/JPY may trade bullish over 106.300 to target 107.084. On the lower side, violation of 105.240 level can drive selling unto 104.300. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

GBP/JPY Supports Over Upward Trendline – 138.600 Level Eyed! 

During the Friday’s European trading session, the GBP/JPY extended its previous session losing streak and dropped below the 138.600 marks mainly due to the risk-off market sentiment, triggered by the multiple worsening headlines like dismal U.S. jobs data and US-Iran tussle. This eventually underpinned the safe-haven Japanese yen currency and contributed to the pair declines. 

During the Friday’s European trading session, the GBP/JPY extended its previous session losing streak and dropped below the 138.600 marks mainly due to the risk-off market sentiment, triggered by the multiple worsening headlines like dismal U.S. jobs data and US-Iran tussle. This eventually underpinned the safe-haven Japanese yen currency and contributed to the pair declines. 

During the Friday’s European trading session, the GBP/JPY extended its previous session losing streak and dropped below the 138.600 marks mainly due to the risk-off market sentiment, triggered by the multiple worsening headlines like dismal U.S. jobs data and US-Iran tussle. This eventually underpinned the safe-haven Japanese yen currency and contributed to the pair declines. 

At this moment, the GBP/JPY is trading at 138.600 and consolidating in the range between 138 – 139.90. The U.S. stock futures failed to maintain its early-day gains and turned negative, possibly due to the on-going political impasse over the shape and size of the next U.S. fiscal recovery package. The disappointing U.S. labor market data also exerted downside pressure on the market by fueling the worries over the U.S. economic recovery. At the data front, the U.S. showed that 1.106 million Americans declared unemployment benefits during the previous week, exceeding the anticipated 925,000 claims as well as last Thursday’s 971,000 figure. 

The U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stepped back from her previous positive remarks over the COVID-19 relief bill while saying that the “Timing is not right for a smaller coronavirus relief bill.” This, in turn, undermined the risk-tone in the market. Also weighed on the market trading sentiment was the US-Iran tussle. Trump administration remains tough and adds worries for Iran after showing the intention to restore almost all United Nations (U.N.) sanctions. As per the latest report, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that we will strongly push arms embargo and do everything to enforce them. These gloomy headlines weighed on the market sentiment and contributed to the currency pair losses by underpinning the safe-haven Japanese yen.

Apart from this, the fears of rising COVID-19 cases in the U.S., and some of the notable Asian nations like India constantly fueling fears that the economic recovery could be halt, which also underpinned demand for the Japanese yen and kept the currency pair down. However, these fears were further boosted by the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday’s comments that the path to economic recovery from COVID-19 remains highly uncertain. 

The reason for the risk-off market sentiment could also be attributed to the latest U.S. rump administration statement against the Chinese commerce department’s comments that trade talks will happen soon. The Trump administration did not goes with the comments made by the Chinese Commerce Dept. spokesman Mr. Gao Feng that trade talks will resume in the coming days. However, the reason could be the long-lasting tension between both parties, leading the U.S. president to be angry with China. 


During the early U.S. session, we opened a forex trading signal on the GBP/JPY currency pair at 138.900 level with a stop loss at 138.550 level. But soon, we realized that the pair isn’t likely to reverse over 138.800 support. Therefore, we decided to close the signal at a minimum loss of 9 pips. Let’s wait a bit before taking another p[osition in the GBP/JPY currency pair. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 21 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes in PMI Figures! 

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, U.K., and the United States. Almost all economic figures are expected to perform better than previous months, perhaps due to the lift of lockdown. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, U.K., and the United States. Almost all economic figures are expected to perform better than previous months, perhaps due to the lift of lockdown. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI figures from the Eurozone, U.K., and the United States. Almost all economic figures are expected to perform better than previous months, perhaps due to the lift of lockdown. Price action will depend upon any surprise changes in the PMI figures.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

Today in the Asian trading hours, the EUR/USD currency pair has succeeded in stopping its Thursday’s losing streak and continues to gain positive traction just closer to 1.1900 level, mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the dismal U.S. Jobless Claims data. The upbeat market sentiment and on-going uncertainty surrounding the much-awaited U.S. fiscal stimulus also weighed on the safe-haven U.S. dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. 

Across the pond, the shared currency continues to gaining bullish traction as most of the investors believe that the European Union (E.U.) will reach an agreement on a coronavirus recovery package for its members in late July. This, in turn, the currency pair has been flashing green since the week start. On the contrary, the rising coronavirus cases in Germany and France turned out to be a major factor that kept the lid on any further gains in the currency pair. 

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1882 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1856 – 1.1883. However, traders are cautious about placing any strong position ahead of German PMI. Moving on, the currency pair will likely put further bids if the preliminary German and Eurozone Markit manufacturing, services and composite PMI data for August blow past expectations on the day, this, in turn, bolstering hopes for faster economic recovery. On the contrary, the said, EUR/USD’ currency pair may face losses and revisit Thursday’s low of 1.18 if the German and Eurozone data prints below estimates. 

However, this data is scheduled to release at 07:30 GMT, and it is anticipated that German Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.5 from July’s 51. But, the progress pace in the activity is expected to have increased in August. Likewise, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is anticipated to increase to 52.9 from 51.8. Thus, the above-forecast data will fuel recovery hopes and decrease the case for further monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank. 

On the flip side, the data published by the U.S. showed that 1.106 million Americans declared unemployment benefits during the previous week, exceeding the anticipated 925,000 claims and last Thursday’s 971,000 figure. As a result, the U.S. dollar failed to maintain its previous Fed-gains and edged lower. 

In the meantime, the U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stated, This time seems not right for a smaller coronavirus relief bill.” The Democrat earlier showed a willingness to cut the aid package amount demand in half to renew hopes of America’s much-awaited stimulus. But as of now, the uncertainty remains on the cards amid the policymaker’s differences.

As in result, the broad-based U.S. dollar reported losses on the day as the possibility of the U.S. Congress agreeing to a fiscal stimulus bill this month has weakened amid political differences, which eventually destroyed hopes for a quick U.S. economic recovery. As well as, the doubts over the U.S. economy recover further fueled after the dismal US Jobs data. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar helped the currency pair to stay higher. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the USD against a bucket of other currencies was down, inching down 0.09% to 92.692 by 10:13 PM ET (3:13 AM GMT).

At the coronavirus front, the figures of coronavirus cases increasing day by day. Whereas, the total number of cases crossed more than 231,284 figures so far, as per the report of German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI). Although, these fears have been playing a negative role to cap further gains in the currency pair.

The market traders will keep their eyes on the German and Eurozone Markit manufacturing, services, and composite PMI Data. As well as, the headlines concerning the US COVID-19 aid package, virus figures, and Sino-American trade can also impact the pair’s movement.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1817 1.1843 1.1884
1.1775 1.1911
1.1749 1.1952

 EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair has violated the sideways range of 1.1853 to 1.1830, and now it’s heading higher towards the next technical resistance level of 1.1915 level. On the lower side, the EUR/USD is likely to gain support at the 1.1860 level. Below 1.1860, the next support is likely to be found around the 1.1832 level. The bullish bias remains dominant today.

  

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.32135 after placing a high of 1.32246 and a low of 1.30642. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The Pound continued its strength against the U.S. dollar on Thursday amid increased hopes that the U.K. and E.U. will find a breakthrough in the latest round of post-Brexit talks that will conclude on Friday.

Few investors were betting that both sides will be able to find common ground on the key sticking issues, including access to British fishing waters and the level playing field rules, as the latest round of talks is set to end on Friday. The level playing field rules consist of a set of standard rules to ensure firms in the U.K. and E.U. compete on an equal footing, and Britain has been arguing against it.

The rise in GBP/USD pair on Thursday was followed by the increased optimism around the Brexit talks and the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness amid poor than expected U.S. jobless claims.

Investor’s focus has now shifted more towards the final round of Brexit talks in September, to see whether a deal could be reached. E.U. Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has said that an agreement should be agreed by October to allow the E.U. to ratify the deal.

It has already clear that if no deal was agreed between U.K. and E.U., then U.K. will follow the WTO terms, which will be harsh than the current trade agreement that will lapse at the end of Brexit transition period on December 31.

However, earlier Prime Minister Boris Johnson decided against extending the transition period beyond the end of 2020 and signaled optimism that a deal could be reached by the fall, it triggered bullish momentum in the GBP/USD pair.

On the U.S. front, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index declined to 17.2 from the expected 21.0 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Unemployment Claims from last week also rose to 1106K from the expected 930K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The weak U.S. dollar added gains in the GBP/USD pair and closed the day with a strong bullish candle.

On Friday, the Retail Sales and Public Net Borrowings from Britain, along with the Consumer Confidence and Manufacturing & Services PMI data, will release that will impact on GBP/USD pair. The more important release will be the result of the latest Brexit talks with E.U. that will strongly impact the GBP/USD pair. From the U.S. side, the Flash manufacturing & Services PMI data will remain under focus by investors.

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3108 1.3167 1.3271
1.3005 1.3329
1.2946 1.3433

 GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3250 level, and the pair was trading in between an ascending triangle pattern that has now been violated. The triangle pattern was extending resistance at 1.3125 level, and above this, the next resistance is likely to be found around 1.3267 level. At the same time, the support stays at 1.3186 and 1.3137 level. Bullish bias seems dominant today.

  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 106.111 after placing a high of 106.150 and 105.101. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. After falling for three consecutive days, the USD/JPY pair rose sharply and reached above 106.00 level on Wednesday amid broad-based U.S. dollar strength. 

The FOMC minutes of the July meeting revealed that policymakers supported cap bond yields and made it unlikely for the Fed to introduce yield curve control in September. In response to Fed minutes, the U.S. Dollar Index rose above 93 levels, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose about 0.9% and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately gave strength to USD/JPY pair on Wednesday.

The sharp rally in USD/JPY was also supported by the comments of a senior Trump administration official who said that a new stimulus relief bill of small amount than $1 trillion or $3 trillion could be agreed upon and provide strength to the economy. He proposed a new bill of $500 billion as the previously expected stimulus bills proposed by Republicans & Democrats was failed to reach a consensus. This new bill also raised hopes and supported the U.S. dollar that pushed USD/JPY prices further on the upside.

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the Core Machinery Orders in June from Japan declined to -7.6% from the previous 1.7% and fell short of the expected 2.1% and weighed on Japanese Yen that added strength to the advancing USDJPY pair. Whereas, the Trade Balance from Japan showed a deficit of -0.03T against the forecasted -0.44T and the previous -0.41T and supported Japanese Yen.

On the other hand, the US-China relations were further dented after Donald Trump revealed the main reason behind the delay in review meetings between U.S. & Chinese officials on August 15 on Wednesday. According to Trump, he was furious over Beijing’s handling of coronavirus situations and disturbing the global economy, and that was the reason he canceled the review meeting. He said that he did not want to meet China for now.

The negative statement a day after blacklisting the Chinese telecom Huawei group in America escalated the tensions further and weighed on risk sentiment. This helped the U.S. dollar gain strength against its safe-haven status and raised the USD/JPY pair in the market.

Mark Meadows, the White House Chief of Staff, informed on Wednesday that no new high-level talks were rescheduled between the U.S. & China as two sides were already in touch regarding the implementation of the phase-one trade deal. This raised the risk sentiment and weighed on Japanese Yen that ultimately added gains in USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.6200 105.9200 106.1000
105.4300 106.4100
105.1300 106.5900

 

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has violated the upward trendline support level of 106.345, as it fell sharply in the wake of increased safe-haven appeal in the market. At the movement, the USD/JPY pair is holding below 50 periods EMA, while the RSI and MACD are in support of bearish trend. The recent candle is closing above 105.344 level, suggesting strong odds of bullish correction until 106. However, the violation of 106 can lead to USD/JPY prices towards the 104.600 support level. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Price Action

Strong Reversal Pattern in the Daily Chart? Make Full Use of It

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of a daily chart, which ends up offering an H4 entry by producing a Morning Star in the daily chart. The Morning Star is one of the strongest bullish reversal patterns. The combination traders may make full use of it too. This is what we are going to demonstrate in today’s lesson. Let us get started.

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of a daily chart, which ends up offering an H4 entry by producing a Morning Star in the daily chart. The Morning Star is one of the strongest bullish reversal patterns. The combination traders may make full use of it too. This is what we are going to demonstrate in today’s lesson. Let us get started.

In today’s lesson, we are going to demonstrate an example of a daily chart, which ends up offering an H4 entry by producing a Morning Star in the daily chart. The Morning Star is one of the strongest bullish reversal patterns. The combination traders may make full use of it too. This is what we are going to demonstrate in today’s lesson. Let us get started.

It is a daily chart. The chart shows that the price makes a bearish move. The last candle closes within a level, where the price had a bounce earlier. The buyers may keep their eyes on the chart to get a bullish reversal to go long in the pair. Let us proceed to the next chart to find out what happens next.

The chart produces a Doji candle. It means neither the buyers nor the sellers are confident. The next candle is going to be very crucial. A bearish candle may drive the price towards the South. On the other hand, a bullish reversal candle may push the price towards the North.

The candle comes out as a bullish engulfing candle closing well above the Doji candle’s upper wick. It is a sign that the buyers may take over. Do not forget that the chart produces a Morning Star. It is one of the strongest bullish reversal patterns. The buyers on the daily chart may keep their eyes on the pair to go long with their different strategies. What do the daily-H4 combination traders do? They are to flip over to the H4 chart to find out long entry. Let us flip over to the H4 chart.

The H4 chart shows that the price heads towards the North with good bullish momentum. The price has not produced any bearish candles yet. The combination traders are to wait for the price to consolidate and produce a bullish reversal candle to go long in the pair.

The chart produces a bearish candle. The candle length suggests that the bull may show its strength in the next candle. If that happens, the buyers may find the opportunity to trigger a long entry.

The chart produces a bullish engulfing candle closing well above consolidation resistance. The buyers may trigger a long entry right after the last candle closes. Let us proceed to the next chart to find out how the entry goes.

The price heads towards the North further. Do not forget to notice the upper wick’s length. It means buyers on the minor charts have had a feast here. Most probably, it is because of the Morning Star in the daily chart. When a daily chart produces a Morning Star, it usually attracts buyers in the minor charts and vice versa. Thus, keep your eyes on the daily chart and make full use of it when it produces such a strong reversal pattern.

Categories
Forex Signals

AUD/USD Breaks Below Upward Channel – Quick Update On Signal! 

The AUD/USD pair closed at 0.72426 after, a high of 0.72643 and a low of 0.72086. Overall, the movement of the AUD/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The AUD/USD pair extended its gains, rising for the third consecutive day on Tuesday, as Australia’s central bank does not see any need to ease the policy further.

The AUD/USD pair closed at 0.72426 after, a high of 0.72643 and a low of 0.72086. Overall, the movement of the AUD/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The AUD/USD pair extended its gains, rising for the third consecutive day on Tuesday, as Australia’s central bank does not see any need to ease the policy further.

The AUD/USD pair closed at 0.72426 after, a high of 0.72643 and a low of 0.72086. Overall, the movement of the AUD/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The AUD/USD pair extended its gains, rising for the third consecutive day on Tuesday, as Australia’s central bank does not see any need to ease the policy further.

The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rates at a record low of 0.25% in August, after cutting them in March. In its August policy meeting, the bank said that the existing measures were operating broadly, as anticipated, with an economic recovery underway in most of the country.

The minutes of the August policy meeting, held on August 4, revealed that the recovery was slower than earlier projections expected, because of the coronavirus outbreak in the state of Victoria, as this had a major impact on the economy.

Meanwhile, the Governor of the RBA, Philip Lowe, said that there was a need for greater fiscal spending, to revive Australia’s ailing economy, as there were limits to what monetary policy could do. Members of the RBA considered fiscal and monetary support necessary, to support the labor market, as the unemployment rate was at a 22-year high, and wage growth was at an all-time low.

The minutes revealed that almost 30% of Australia’s working-age population was relying on the government’s COVID-19-related welfare payments.

The RBA said that the net positive fiscal impact from the expected change in Australian government finances was equivalent to around 4% of the GDP in 2019-20, and 5% in 2020-21. The AUD/USD pair continued to post gains, after the release of the minutes, reaching a level of above 0.72500.

Furthermore, the weakness of the broad-based US dollar also added to the gains of the AUD/USD pair, as the delay in the next US stimulus aid package was weighing on the local currency. The US Dollar Index fell to a 2-year low, close to 92.2, and the US Treasury yields also slumped, weighing heavily on the US dollar.

The weak US dollar then added strength to the AUD/USD pair, supporting the bullish movement on Tuesday. However, in the late American session, the pair lost some of its early gains of the day, because of the positive US data.

The Building Permits from the US in July rose to 1.50M, compared to the expected 1.33M, lending support to the US dollar. The Housing Starts also rose to 1.50M, in contrast to the anticipated 1.23M, pushing the US dollar higher, and weighing on the AUD/USD pair, which lost some of its early gains of the day as a result.


The AUD/USD pair continues to trade sideways, within a narrow trading range of 0.7257 – 0.7230. The buying and selling opportunities can be seen within this range, but when the minutes of the FOMC meeting are released, the AUD/USD could exhibit either a bearish or a bullish breakout. On the higher side, the next resistance could be found at around 0.7280, while support holds at 0.7210. 

Entry Price – Sell 0.7168
Stop Loss – 0.7208
Take Profit – 0.7128
Risk to Reward – 1:1
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Fellas, now you can check out forex trading signals via Forex Academy mobile app. Follow the links below.

iPhone Users: https://apps.apple.com/es/app/fasignals/id1521281368

Andriod Users: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=academy.forex.thesignal&hl=en_US

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 20 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Jobless Claims In Focus! 

The news site of the market is likely to offer high impact events from the U.S. while the major focus will remain on the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims. U.S. dollar may exhibit mixed bias until the release of these events as Philly fed manufacturing is expected to perform badly, and the Jobless claims are likely to perform well.

The news site of the market is likely to offer high impact events from the U.S. while the major focus will remain on the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims. U.S. dollar may exhibit mixed bias until the release of these events as Philly fed manufacturing is expected to perform badly, and the Jobless claims are likely to perform well.

The news site of the market is likely to offer high impact events from the U.S. while the major focus will remain on the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims. U.S. dollar may exhibit mixed bias until the release of these events as Philly fed manufacturing is expected to perform badly, and the Jobless claims are likely to perform well.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair has stopped its previous day bearish streak and recovered from the 27-month lows amid speculative interests and strong bond auction. However, the recent declines in the currency pair from near two-year highs of 1.1956 were mainly directed by a broad-based U.S. dollar recovery. As of now, the broad-based Us dollar has erased some of its gains but still hovering on the bullish track. This, in turn, the currency pair became able to put some modest bids and stop its previous losing streak. 

On the EUR side, the ongoing rise in new coronavirus cases in Spain, Germany, France, and Italy has been fueling the fears over the second-wave of the virus across Europe, which might put the shared currency under pressure and become the key factor that will cap any upside in the currency pair. At the moment, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1843 and consolidating in the range between the 1.1831 – 1.1857. Moving on, the traders seem cautious to place any strong bids ahead of U.S. Jobless Claims and ECB minutes.

The broad-based U.S. dollar has many things to cheer on the day. Be it the weaker pace of surge in the COVID-19 cases from New York and Florida or hopes of the U.S. stimulus package, not to forget the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which showed that the officials lacked support for the yield curve control, as one of the policy options. However, the broad-based U.S. dollar was being supported by all these things.

However, the ongoing worries about the growing coronavirus case in most places and worsened US-China relations also helped the U.S. dollar put the safe-haven bids. Despite the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) and Sino-American tensions, the U.S. President Donald Trump gave the latest warning during the daily press conference that the U.S. is going to announce punitive measures Iran. As per the keywords, “U.S. intends to restore nearly all U.N. sanctions on Iran.” In the meantime, the American Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also warned the Dragon Nation and Russia not to interfere in this matter to save Tehran as they did in the recent past. However, these lingering tension kept the market trading sentiment under pressure and provided support to the U.S. dollar as safe-haven status.

It is worth mentioning that the minutes from the July Fed meeting released Yesterday pushed back against additional measures like the yield curve control, under which the central bank targets a specific yield level at the short or long end of the curve. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve indicated that it would think about changing its monetary policy to stick to dynamic monetary policy for far extended than previously expected. 

Across the pond, the intensifying coronavirus virus cases in Germany and France fueled the fears of fresh lockdowns in Europe’s biggest economies, which might weigh on the shared currency. As per the latest report, the reported coronavirus cases increased to 226,914, with a total of 9,243 deaths on Wednesday. Whereas, the cases raised by 1,510 in Germany on Wednesday against Tuesday +1,390. The death toll rose by 7, as per the German disease and epidemic control center report, Robert Koch Institute (RKI).

Looking forward, the market traders will keep their eyes on the U.S. Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, and the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting minutes, which is scheduled to release later today. The headlines concerning the US COVID-19 aid package, virus figures, and Sino-American trade will not lose its importance.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1792 1.1873 1.1916
1.1749 1.1997
1.1668 1.2041

 EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair is trading in a sideways range of 1.1853 to 1.1830, and violation of this range can determine further trends in the market. On the higher side, the EUR/USD can trade bullish until 1.1885 level on the breakout of 1.1850. On the lower side, a breakout of the 1.1830 level can lead EUR/USD until the 1.1792 level.

  

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.30986 after placing a high of 1.32670 and a low of 1.30934. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair lost all of its previous day gins and declined on Wednesday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar strength after the FOMC meeting minutes were released.

In the early daily session, the GBP/USD pair rose to its highest since last week of December 2019 on the back of better than expected macroeconomic data from the United Kingdom but failed to maintain gains and dropped below 1.310 level. The decline was backed by the sudden strength in the U.S. dollar after the Trump administration proposed another stimulus relief bill.

In the early trading session, the Consumer Price Index from Great Britain was released at 11:00 GMT that rose to 1% from the expected 0.6% and supported GBP. The year’s Core CPI also rose to 1.8% against the estimated 1.3% and the previous 1.4% and supported GBP. The Sterling was again supported after the release of PPI Input for July that surged to 1.8% from the forecasted 1.1%. In July, the PPI Output also rose from the expected 0.2% but remained flat with the previous 0.3%. The Raw-Material Price Index for the year from the U.K. increased to 1.6% from the previous 1.1% and exceeded the expectations of 1.2%. AT 13:30 GMT, the Housing Price Index for the year came in as 2.6%.

The positive and better than expected macroeconomic data from the U.K. gave strength to Pound that took the currency pair GBP/USD to its 8th month highest level at 1.32670. However, in the late trading session after the release of FOMC meeting minutes, the GBP/USD pair started to decline and lost all of its gains from Tuesday.

The minutes revealed that the FOMC was worried about the economic recovery, while some members of the committee suggested that to promote the economic recovery and achieve the 2% inflation target, additional accommodation was necessary.

Furthermore, as opposed to the $1 trillion or $3 trillion stimulus package, a new stimulus relief bill was proposed by the Trump administration on Wednesday of worth $500 Billion. It came in as the consensus on previously recommended bills by Democrats and Republicans has not been achieved yet. This raised hopes and U.S. dollar bars in the market and added additional losses in the GBP/USD currency pair.

Meanwhile, the Brexit talks have been resumed, and outlook of talks still suggested differences as several media reports suggested that U.K. wanted British truckers to be able to pick up and drop off goods both inside E.U. countries and between them. But Brussels has denied as they consider the proposal fundamentally unbalanced, this also weighed on GBP/USD pair on Wednesday.

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3037 1.3153 1.3212
1.2978 1.3328
1.2862 1.3388

 GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3250 level, and the pair was trading in between an ascending triangle pattern that has now been violated. The triangle pattern was extending resistance at 1.3125 level, and above this, the next resistance is pretty much likely to be found around 1.3267 level. At the same time, the support stays at 1.3186 and 1.3137 level. Bullish bias seems dominant today.

  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 106.111 after placing a high of 106.150 and 105.101. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. After falling for three consecutive days, the USD/JPY pair rose sharply and reached above 106.00 level on Wednesday amid broad-based U.S. dollar strength. 

The FOMC minutes of the July meeting revealed that policymakers supported to cap bond yields and made it unlikely for the Fed to introduce yield curve control in September. In response to Fed minutes, the U.S. Dollar Index rose above 93 levels, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose about 0.9% and supported the U.S. dollar that ultimately gave strength to USD/JPY pair on Wednesday.

The sharp rally in USD/JPY was also supported by the comments of a senior Trump administration official who said that a new stimulus relief bill of small amount than $1 trillion or $3 trillion could be agreed upon and provide strength to the economy. He proposed a new bill of $500 billion as the previously expected stimulus bills proposed by Republicans & Democrats was failed to reach a consensus. This new bill also raised hopes and supported the U.S. dollar that pushed USD/JPY prices further on the upside.

On the data front, at 04:50 GMT, the Core Machinery Orders in June from Japan declined to -7.6% from the previous 1.7% and fell short of the expected 2.1% and weighed on Japanese Yen that added strength to the advancing USDJPY pair. Whereas, the Trade Balance from Japan showed a deficit of -0.03T against the forecasted -0.44T and the previous -0.41T and supported Japanese Yen.

On the other hand, the US-China relations were further dented after Donald Trump revealed the main reason behind the delay in review meetings between U.S. & Chinese officials on August 15 on Wednesday. According to Trump, he was very angry over Beijing’s handling of coronavirus situations and disturbing the global economy, and that was the reason he canceled the review meeting. He said that he did not want to meet China for now.

The negative statement a day after blacklisting the Chinese telecom Huawei group in America escalated the tensions further and weighed on risk sentiment. This helped the U.S. dollar to gain strength against its safe-haven status and raised the USD/JPY pair in the market.

Mark Meadows, the White House Chief of Staff, informed on Wednesday that no new high-level talks were rescheduled between the U.S. & China as two sides were already in touch regarding the implementation of the phase-one trade deal. This raised the risk sentiment and weighed on Japanese Yen that ultimately added gains in USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.4100 105.7800 106.4600
104.7200 106.8400
104.3500 107.5200

 

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has violated the upward trendline support level of 106.345, as it fell sharply in the wake of increased safe-haven appeal in the market. At the movement, the USD/JPY pair is holding below 50 periods EMA, while the RSI and MACD are in support of bearish trend. The recent candle is closing above 105.344 level, suggesting strong odds of bullish correction until 106. However, the violation of 106 can lead to USD/JPY prices towards the 104.600 support level. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, August 19 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on FOMC Meeting Minutes! 

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which are not expected to show a rate change but will help us understand U.S. economic situation and policymakers’ stance on it. Besides, the Inflation reports from the U.K. and Eurozone are also likely to drive some price action during the European session today.

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which are not expected to show a rate change but will help us understand U.S. economic situation and policymakers’ stance on it. Besides, the Inflation reports from the U.K. and Eurozone are also likely to drive some price action during the European session today.

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which are not expected to show a rate change but will help us understand U.S. economic situation and policymakers’ stance on it. Besides, the Inflation reports from the U.K. and Eurozone are also likely to drive some price action during the European session today.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.19308 after placing a high of 1.19654 and a low of 1.1863. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair rose and extended its gains for the 6th consecutive day on Tuesday amid heavy selling pressure surrounding the greenback. The pair EUR/USD surged to its highest level since May 2018 amid broad-based U.S. dollar weakness as it followed the U.S. Treasury bond yields.

The U.S. Treasury bond yield on 10-year note lost more than 4% on the day, and the U.S. Dollar Index fell to its lowest daily close in more than two years at $92.30. Other than the persistent sell-off in the U.S. dollar, the single currency Euro found extra sustain in the solid appetite for riskier assets on the back of strong hopes over a moderate economic recovery in the region. It was increased by the news that a coronavirus vaccine could be out sooner than expected.

The risk sentiment was also supported by the investors’ confidence about the strength of the U.S. economic recovery, helped by strong earnings from retail giants Home Depot and Walmart.

The stocks were up on Tuesday as S&P 500 futures rose by 0.2%, the Dow futures contract rose by 0.4%, and while Nasdaq 100 futures moved up by 0.3%. According to a fund manager survey from Bank of America on Tuesday, showed that investors were at their most bullish trend on financial markets since February. The rise in the equity market helped increase risk appetite and EUR that is a riskier asset gained from such activity in the market.

On the data front, there was no macroeconomic data to be released from the Europe side; however, from the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Building Permits exceeded the expectations of 1.33M and came in as 1.50M in July in comparison of 1.26M of June and supported U.S. dollar. The Housing Starts also rose to 1.50M and exceeded the forecast of 1.23M and supported the U.S. dollar. Positive data from the U.S. side supported the dollar and limited the additional gains in EUR/USD pair on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, the Eurostat will release the inflation report for the Euro area. Markets expect the Core Consumer Price Inflation that excludes the volatile food and energy prices to remain flat at 1.2% on a yearly basis.

From the U.S. side, the FOMC meeting minutes will also be released to provide fresh clues about the movement of the EUR/USD pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.1873 1.1920 1.1975
1.1818 1.2022
1.1772 1.2077

 EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair has already violated the resistance level of 1.1912 level, which is now working as a support. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair is supported by an upward channel at 1.1915, while the resistance stays at 1.1962 level. Bullish bias seems dominant, and it may lead the EUR/USD prices towards the 1.1998 level today. The RSI, MACD, and 50 EMA are all in support of buying trends. 

  

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.32373 after placing a high of 1.32496 and a low of 1.30924. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained strongly bullish. The GBP/USD pair continued to extend gains and rose for 4th consecutive day on Tuesday on the back of a combination of factors. The uncertainty over the next round of U.S. stimulus aid to support the U.S. economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic has depressed the U.S. dollar. The falling U.S. Treasury bond yields further weighed on the already declining greenback and added gains in the GBP/USD pair.

The Sterling hit 8-months high on Tuesday as a new round of Brexit talks began, and the U.K. still believes that it can agree on a post-Brexit trade deal with the E.U. next month. On Tuesday ahead of the Brexit talks, a European Commission spokesman said that a deal would need to be agreed on by October. On the other hand, Mr. Barnier said that this date required an agreement to be ratified before the U.K.’s current post-Brexit transition period ends in December.

After the last round of negotiations in London, Barnier accused the U.K. of not showing willingness to break the deadlock over difficult issues. In response, David Frost replied that the E.U. had offered to break the deadlock but failed to honor the fundamental principles that the U.K. had repeatedly made clear.

On the data side, at 17:30 GMT, the Building Permits from the United States was increased to 1.50M from the forecasted 1.33M in July, and the Housing Starts also rose to 1.50 M from the expected 1.23M and supported U.S. dollar. The economic figures from the U.S. were mostly ignored by the investors as the focus was all shifted towards the new round of Brexit talks.

However, the U.S. dollar was weak across the board on Tuesday as the U.S. Dollar Index collapsed to its lowest level in more than two years at 92.28 and was having a tough time recovering. This added pressure on the greenback and added gains in the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday.

However, the losses in the U.S. dollar helped the currency pair to take bids on the day. 

 Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
1.3136 1.3193 1.3291
1.3037 1.3349
1.2980 1.3447

 GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3250 level, and the pair was trading in between an ascending triangle pattern that has now been violated. The triangle pattern was extending resistance at 1.3125 level, and above this, the next resistance is pretty much likely to be found around 1.3267 level. At the same time, the support stays at 1.3186 and 1.3137 level. Bullish bias seems dominant today.

  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 105.407 after placing a high of 106.050 and a low of 105.281. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bearish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair moved to a fresh 2-week lowest level around 105.20 regions after the U.S. dollar selling pressure picked up pace during the late session.

The currency pair witnessed some strong follow-through selling for the third consecutive session and extended its bearish slide from 107.00 level. The downfall in USD/JPY pair was exclusively sponsored by the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness under pressure due to impasse over the next round of U.S. fiscal stimulus measures.

The additional pressure on the U.S. dollar was exerted by the declining U.S. Treasury bond yields that undermined the already weak sentiment across the greenback. The U.S. Treasury bond yield on the 10-year note fell by 2.8% on Tuesday that weighed on the U.S. dollar.

Apart from the U.S. Treasury, the escalating tensions between the U.S. & China, drove some safe-haven flows towards the Japanese Yen that further added in the downward momentum of USD/JPY pair on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the positive opening in the U.S. equity markets failed to impress the bullish traders, and the pair USD/JPY continued moving in the downward direction and closed its day near the monthly low that was set on August 6.

On the data front, at 01:00 GMT, the TIC Long-Term Purchases for June exceeded the forecast of 108.0B and came in as 113.0B and supported the U.S. dollar. At 17:30 GMT, the Building Permits from the U.S. rose to 1.50M against the projected 1.33Mand the Housing starts rose to 1.50M from the projected 1.23Mand supported U.S. dollar that helped limit the additional losses in pair.

There was no news regarding the date of the review of the phase-one trade deal between both nations on the US-China front. It is expected that the review will be published after the targets of U.S. purchases by China will be met.

As per the deal, China has to increase its purchases of U.S. farm and manufactured products, energy, and services by $200 billion over the next two years. So far, China has made imports of products from the U.S. worth about $40.2 billion that is less than 50%. China still has far to go to meet the requirement as it was affected by the pandemic induced lockdowns; however, ever since the lockdown has been eased, China’s imports have increased. U.S. officials have said that they were satisfied with the trade deal progress so far.

On the negative side, the blacklisting of Huawei’s telecom group on Yesterday raised concerns regarding the escalated tensions between China & the U.S. and supported the bearish trend in the USD/JPY pair.

Daily Technical Levels

Support Pivot Resistance
105.1100 105.5900 105.9000
104.8000 106.3800
104.3100 106.6900

 

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has violated the upward trendline support level of 106.345, as it fell sharply in the wake of increased safe-haven appeal in the market. At the movement, the USD/JPY pair is holding below 50 periods EMA, while the RSI and MACD are in support of bearish trend. The recent candle is closing above 105.344 level, suggesting strong odds of bullish correction until 106. However, the violation of 106 can lead to USD/JPY prices towards the 104.600 support level. Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

USD/CHF Hit The Multi-Year Lows Near 0.9037 – Update on Signal! 

During Tuesday’s European trading session, the USD/CHF currency pair failed to stop its previous session bearish moves and dropped to fresh multi-years low just around the 0.9035, mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. That was triggered by the disappointing U.S. economic data and worries that the second wave of COVID-19 cases in the United States could ruin the recovery in the world’s biggest economy. 

During Tuesday’s European trading session, the USD/CHF currency pair failed to stop its previous session bearish moves and dropped to fresh multi-years low just around the 0.9035, mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. That was triggered by the disappointing U.S. economic data and worries that the second wave of COVID-19 cases in the United States could ruin the recovery in the world’s biggest economy. 

During Tuesday’s European trading session, the USD/CHF currency pair failed to stop its previous session bearish moves and dropped to fresh multi-years low just around the 0.9035, mainly due to the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. That was triggered by the disappointing U.S. economic data and worries that the second wave of COVID-19 cases in the United States could ruin the recovery in the world’s biggest economy. 

The on-going doubts over the U.S. Stimulus Package also weighed on the American currency and contributed to the pair losses. On the other hand, the concerns about strengthening the US-China tussle weighed on the market trading sentiment, which supported the safe-haven Swiss francs and contributed to the USD/CHF pair’s declines the lowest level since January 2015. At this particular time, the USD/CHF currency pair is currently trading at 0.9052 and consolidating in the range between 0.9037 – 0.9069.

Due to the pretending reduction in coronavirus cases by decreasing testing, the worries about the U.S. economic recovery still hover all over the market and keep the U.S. dollar bulls defensive. Apart from the U.S., the coronavirus cases in Europe also increasing day by day. As per the latest report, the reported number of coronavirus cases increased to 225,404 with a total of 9,236 deaths so far. Whereas, the cases increased by 1,390 in Germany on the day against the previous day +738. At the same time, the death losses rose by 4, according to the report of German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI). This, in turn, benefitted the Swiss franc’s safe-haven currency and contributed the pair losses.

Elsewhere, the risk-off market sentiment was further bolstered by the long-lasting disappointment over the lack of progress in the much-awaited fiscal package. As well as, the on-going tussle between the United States and China became sourer after the suspension in the bi-deal annual trade review with China. It is worth reporting that the Trump administration keeps increasing the hardships for China’s companies by imposing punitive measures on Chinese 38 facilities from Huawei, which exerted a very downside impact on the market and overshadowed optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly infectious coronavirus infections.

As a result, the broad-based U.S. dollar failed to gain any positive traction on the day and reported losses as the U.S. Congress’s inability to reach an agreement for the U.S. latest COVID-19 stimulus package kept the investors defensive. However, the losses in the U.S. dollar kept the USD/CHF currency pair bearish. Whereas, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies was down 0.22% to 92.642 by 12:21 AM ET (5:21 AM GMT).

The market players will closely follow the release of the Building Permits and Housing Starts. However, this data usually does not leave any major impact on the currency pair. At the important front, the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes will be key to watch.


The USD/CHF has violated the triple bottom support level of 0.9064 and the closing of candles below this is supporting the solid potential for further bearish bias. Therefore, we are looking to target 40 pips until 0.8990 to take a profit level.

Entry Price – Sell 0.9049
Stop Loss – 0.9099
Take Profit – 0.8999
Risk to Reward – 1:1
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

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Forex Signals

Gold Facing Over $2,000 Level – Is it Going After $2,038?

In the early European trading session, the yellow metal prices stopped its previous day losing streak and recovered from the $1950-52 region to above $2000 level on the day. However, the bullish sentiment around the bullion was being supported by the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. As well as, the multiple risk catalysts like US-China ongoing tussle, also triggered the precious metal’s rise on the day. In the meantime, the positive news over a potential COVID-19 vaccine becomes the key factor that capping the further upside for the gold.

In the early European trading session, the yellow metal prices stopped its previous day losing streak and recovered from the $1950-52 region to above $2000 level on the day. However, the bullish sentiment around the bullion was being supported by the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. As well as, the multiple risk catalysts like US-China ongoing tussle, also triggered the precious metal’s rise on the day. In the meantime, the positive news over a potential COVID-19 vaccine becomes the key factor that capping the further upside for the gold.

In the early European trading session, the yellow metal prices stopped its previous day losing streak and recovered from the $1950-52 region to above $2000 level on the day. However, the bullish sentiment around the bullion was being supported by the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. As well as, the multiple risk catalysts like US-China ongoing tussle, also triggered the precious metal’s rise on the day. In the meantime, the positive news over a potential COVID-19 vaccine becomes the key factor that capping the further upside for the gold.

At the moment, gold is trading at 2,005.25 and consolidating in the range between 1,980.88 – 2,010.09. Moving on, the traders seem cautious to place any strong bids ahead of the minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, which are scheduled to be released on Wednesday.

Be it the failure of the U.S. lawmakers to provide any latest announcement over the coronavirus (COVID-19) relief package or latest penalties on China from the U.S., not to forget the ongoing rise in coronavirus cases; the market traders prefer to invest their money into the safe-haven assets like gold. The US-China tussle turns sour further as Trump keeps increasing the difficulties for the companies of China. As a result of the delayed trade review meet, American diplomats announced punitive measures for Huawei in the latest attack on China.

Also weighed on the market risk sentiment was the failure of the Democrats and Republicans to offer any latest announcement on the coronavirus (COVID-19) relief package amid political differences. Apart from this, the coronavirus concerns also keep challenging the energy traders. The virus fears take the front seats as the global leaders struggle to find any medicine to the deadly virus. Whereas, the ongoing rise in the coronavirus cases in Europe fueling the worries about economic recovery. As per the latest report, the actual coronavirus cases increased to 225,404, with a total of 9,236 deaths so far.

Whereas, the cases increased by 1,390 in Germany on the day against the previous day +738. At the same time, the death losses rose by 4, according to the report of German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI). On the positive side, U.S. markets witnessed a heavenly session during the previous session, as the Nasdaq hit a record high yesterday and the S&P500 coming close to reaching its record high. But Asian stocks were mixed on the day, and the dollar was down as well. However, these positive signs turned out to b a major factor that capped further upside for the gold.

Considering the failure of agreeing on the coronavirus (COVID-19) relief package, the broad-based U.S. dollar was down on the day. However, market investors have stuck over uncertainty over the delayed package. Moreover, the weaker U.S. dollar could also be associated with the ongoing doubt about the U.S. economic recovery amid intensifying coronavirus cases.


The precious metal gold continues to bullish at a 2,008 level. We have already captured one positive and one negative signal in gold. But overall the pic count remains green, which is good for us. For now, gold may find an immediate resistance at 2,009 level, and above this, gold can go after 2,038 level. The RSI and MACD support buying trends while the 50 EMA also suggests bullish bias in the market. Let’s consider taking buy trade over 2,008 resistance level breakout during the U.S. session. Stay tuned to our forex trading signal page; we may enter trade if setup confirms buying. Good luck!