Categories
Chart Patterns

Chart Patterns: Wedge Patterns

Wedge Patterns

I want to stress, again, that the frequency and positive expectancy of patterns in technical analysis will vary from market to market. Most of the literature is written for the stock market, which is an overwhelmingly long-biased market. So, bullish patterns perform much better than bearish patterns in the stock market. I don’t have any real statistics to reference other than my years of trading experience. It has been my experience that wedge patterns are one of the most profitable setups in the forex market.

Wedges look like (and in fact, are) extended triangles. Wedges are made of two trend lines that are drawn just like a triangle. The difference between wedge patterns and triangle patterns is simple: the trendlines in a wedge pattern point in the same direction. Ascending triangles have flat tops and a rising bottom. Descending triangles have flat bottoms with declining tops. Symmetrical triangles have a downtrend line and an uptrend line. Wedges are different. Rising wedges have a trendline both above and below price sloping up. Falling wedges have a trendline both above and below, but sloping down. Depending on the technical analysis material you read, you will see wedges that may look like channels, and that is fine – many do.

Wedge patterns should tell you one thing: the end is coming. Because wedges have two trendlines that point in the same direction, the slope of the move is often extreme and is indicative of a climax move. These are incredibly profitable and favorable patterns when you spot them – and they are horrible to trade against if you are trading inside of them. If you read Bulkowski’s work, you’ll know that he recommends at the trendlines in a wedge should be touched at least five times in order for the wedge pattern to authentic. This is true in the stock market as well as in the forex market.

 

Rising Wedge

Rising Wedge
Rising Wedge

You might think that a rising wedge pattern shows up at the top of a trend, and it often does. But you will also find the rising wedge appear at the bottom of a trend. When you see the rising wedge appear after a prolonged downtrend, be careful! The rising wedge that forms after a long bear move is often a continuation pattern. An easy way to think of the rising wedge is that it is an overwhelmingly bearish pattern. It doesn’t matter where it shows up in any trend – it is an extremely bearish pattern.

When I am trading the rising wedge, I generally take the initial breakout that moves below the second to last test of the bottom trendline. The example above shows that there is no immediate retest of the breakout lower. Retests do happen, but they are less frequent than what we see in the ascending, descending and symmetrical triangles.

 

Falling Wedge

Falling Wedge
Falling Wedge

The inverse of the rising wedge pattern is the falling wedge pattern. It can show up at either the end of an uptrend or a downtrend. If you see a falling wedge that occurs at the top of an uptrend, then you could we witnessing a false breakdown lower and see a resumption of the prior bull move. If you see the falling wedge at the end of a downtrend, then you can expect a swift reversal or deep throwback. Just like the rising wedge, the falling wedge is heavily biased towards one direction: overwhelmingly bullish.

On the image above, I’ve added an Impulse Wave to show how you can use Elliot Waves to help determine whether or not a wedge pattern is valid. Remember: Bulkowski said that that a wedge pattern is only confirmed when the trendlines have been tested at least five times. Another condition on the chart above that we didn’t see on the falling wedge is the attempted retest of the break. Again, retests are common in all patterns, but they are definitely less frequent with wedge patterns – that has been my experience with them in forex markets.

When trading the falling wedge, I like to enter when price moves above the second to last swing high. On the chart above, the entry would be above wave four.

 

Sources:

Kirkpatrick, C. D., & Dahlquist, J. R. (2016). Technical analysis: the complete resource for financial market technicians. Upper Saddle River: Financial Times/Prentice Hall.

Bulkowski, T. N. (2013). Visual guide to chart patterns. New York, NY: Bloomberg Press.

Bulkowski, T. N. (2008). Encyclopedia of candlestick charts. Hoboken, NJ: J. Wiley & Sons.

Bulkowski, T. N. (2002). Trading classic chart patterns. New York: Wiley.

Categories
Chart Patterns

Chart Patterns: Broadening Patterns

Chart Patterns – Broadening Pattern & The Diamond Pattern

Broadening Top
Broadening Top

This pattern is also called a funnel or a megaphone pattern. It’s an inverse symmetrical triangle. This pattern is definitely not that common, and it’s a tricky pattern to trade. The behavior of price in a broadening pattern is to increase swing ranges where new higher highs and new lower lows are made. In my opinion, it is best to ignore this pattern. The breakout and retest of the upper or lower trendlines are the prevailing trade strategies utilized for this pattern. Of all the patterns, to trade, this is one of the least profitable. However, I’ve learned that the breakouts are often false, due to the nature of the final swing in the pattern being mostly overbought or oversold. It is not uncommon to see megaphone patterns turn into a triangle pattern – which results in a rare but profitable pattern known as a Diamond.

 

Chart Patterns – Diamond Pattern

Diamond Top
Diamond Top

The diamond pattern is rare. It is also difficult to even notice if it exists. In fact, Thomas Bulkowsi writes on his site, ‘Let me clear about this. I don’t like diamonds. They are as tough to spot as nightcrawlers in the grass on a summer night.’ I believe that is a pretty accurate description. But, while diamond patterns are challenging to spot, they are a very powerful pattern that often results in fast and violent moves in the opposite direction – higher for diamond bottoms and lower for diamond tops. It is ok for the patterns to have one side that seems more slanted than the other and, in fact, they often do not appear as symmetrical as the example above. We trade a diamond pattern the same way we would any other triangle pattern.

 

Sources:

Kirkpatrick, C. D., & Dahlquist, J. R. (2016). Technical analysis: the complete resource for financial market technicians. Upper Saddle River: Financial Times/Prentice Hall.

Bulkowski, T. N. (2013). Visual guide to chart patterns. New York, NY: Bloomberg Press.

Bulkowski, T. N. (2008). Encyclopedia of candlestick charts. Hoboken, NJ: J. Wiley & Sons.

Bulkowski, T. N. (2002). Trading classic chart patterns. New York: Wiley.

Categories
Candlestick patterns Forex Candlesticks

Candlestick Reversal Patterns II: Let’s know The Engulfing Patterns

 

The engulfing pattern is a major reversal figure, and it is composed of two inverted candlesticks, as in the case of the Piercing pattern and the Dark Cloud Cover figure. Typically, this figure appears at the end of an upward or downward trend. It is common that the price pierces a significant resistance or support level, then making a gap up or down in the following session, to, suddenly, change its direction and end the day entirely covering the first candle.

The Bullish Engulfing

The bullish engulfing candle shows at the bottom of the trend. After several sessions with the price controlled by sellers, another black candle forms. The next session opens below the previous session close and closes above the last open, thus, completely covering the body of the black candle made on the previous session.

Criteria:

  1. The body of the second candlestick covers completely that of the black candle.
  2. There is evidence of a downward trend, even a short-term one.
  3. The body of the second candle is white and of the opposite color of the first candlestick. The exception is when the first candlestick is a doji or a tiny body. In this case, the color of the first candle is unimportant.
  4. The signal is enhanced if a large body engulfs a small body.
  5. a Large volume on the engulfing day also improves the signal.
  6. A body engulfing more than one previous candle shows the strength of the new direction.
  7. Engulfing also the shadows of the previous candle is also good news.
  8. In case of a gap, the larger the gap, the higher the likelihood of a significant reversal.

Market Sentiment:

After a downtrend, the next day, the price starts lower than the previous close but, after a short while, the buyers step in and move the price up. The late sellers start to worry, as they see their stops caught, adding more buying to the upward movement. As the price moves up, it finds a combination of profit-taking, stop-loss orders, and new buy orders. At the end of the day, this combination creates a strong rally that moves the price above the previous close.

 Fig 1- Bearish and Bullish engulfing patterns in the Bitcoin 4H  chart

The Bearish Engulfing

The Bearish engulfing pattern is the specular figure of a Bullish engulfing figure. And more so in the Forex market where assets are traded in pairs, making every move symmetrical.

The bearish engulfing forms after an upward trend. It is composed of two different-colored bodies, as in the above case. This time, though, the order is switched, and a bullish body is followed by a black candle. Also, the black body engulfs completely the body of the previous white candlestick. Sometimes that comes after the price piercing a key resistance, to then come back, creating a fake breakout.

Criteria:

  1. The uptrend is evident, even short-term.
  2. The body of the second day engulfs the body of the previous day.
  3. The body of the second candle is black, and the previous candle is a white candlestick, except for tiny bodies or dojis. In that case, the color of the first candlestick is unimportant.
  4. A large body engulfing a small body is an enhancement, as it confirms a change in the direction.
  5. A large volume on the engulfing day is also good for the efficacy of the signal.
  6. A body engulfing more than one previous candle shows the strength of the new direction.
  7. Engulfing also the shadows of the previous candle is also good news.
  8. In case of a gap, the larger the gap, the higher the likelihood of a substantial reversal.

Market sentiment:

After an uptrend, the price opens higher but, after a while, it reverses and moves below the previous open and below. Some stops trigger and add more fuel to the downside. The downward action accelerates on a combination of profit-taking, more stops hit, and new short orders. At the end of the day, the price closes below the open of the previous session, with the sellers in control. 

—- 

References:

The Candlestick Course: Steve Nison

Profitable candlestick Patterns, Stephen Bigalow

Categories
Candlestick patterns Forex Candlesticks

Candlestick Reversal Patterns I: Overview and The Piercing Pattern

Candlestick Reversal patterns: An Overview

Candlestick reversal figures are composed mainly of bu two or three candlesticks, which in combination harness the psychological power to shift the market sentiment. 

Depending on the importance of the severity of reversal, their names vary. Japanese are very visual regarding the names they gave to them. Therefore, we can almost visualize them just by its name.

In this article, we will learn the following content:

  • Overview of the reversal candlestick patterns
  • how to identify a Bullish Piercing pattern and its specular Dark Cloud Cover pattern
  •  How important engulfing patterns are and how to recognize them
  • Experience how counterattack figures lead to swift trend reversals.

The predicting power of two candle figures is sometimes astonishing. For a sample to be statistically significant, scientists need more than 20 samples for normally distributed phenomena, sometimes more. A reversal figure only shows eight data points. 2x (OHLC), and besides that traders most of the time, the reversal figure warns about a trend reversal or at least the end of the current trend.

The typical reversal pattern is a two candle figure that begins with a topping or bottoming candle followed by an opposite candle that erases partially or totally, the price action of the first one.

Piercing pattern and Dark Cloud Cover

The Piercing Pattern and the Dark Cloud Cover are specular patterns. The Piercing Pattern warns of a reversal of the bearish trend, whereas the Dark Cloud Cover heralds the end of a bullish trend.

 Candlesticks are not always good predictors, and the Piercing Pattern is a weak signal, especially if the trend has not moved too deep yet. Of course, the most oversold is the price, the better a Piercing Pattern predicts a reversal. The Dark Cloud Cover, though, is seen to show much more predicting power.

Timeframes

The Japanese used them mostly in daily and weekly timeframes. The use of these two patterns in intraday trading must be confirmed with other signals, as, for instance, the Piercing Pattern occurring after hitting a significant support or a Dark Cloud cover as a result of a strong resistance rejection. The use of short-term oscillators such as 10-period stochastics or Williams percent R in combination with these two signals will improve the likelihood of success while trading them.

Recognizing a Piercing Pattern

 

The bullish Piercing Pattern is composed of a large bearish body forming after a broad downtrend. The next candle begins below the low of the first black candle, and closes above the midway up, or even near the open if the preceding bearish candle. 

Criteria:
  1. The first candle shows a black body
  2. The second candle shows a white body
  3. The Downtrend is clear and for a long time
  4. The second day opens below the range of the previous day
  5. the second white candle closes beyond the 50% of the range of the last day.
  6. The longer the candles, the better their predicting power.
  7. If there is a gap down, the greater, the better
  8. The higher the white candle closes, the stronger the signal
  9. A large volume during these two candles is significant.

The Dark Cloud Cover

Apply the specular conditions to the Dark Cloud cover. We also should remember that trading forex pairs make both patterns fully symmetrical.

Criteria:
  1. The first candle shows a white body
  2. The second candle shows a black body
  3. The upward trend is clear and for a long time
  4. The second day opens above the range of the previous day
  5. the second black candle closes below the 50% of the range of the last day.
  6. The longer the candles, the better their predicting power.
  7. If there is a gap up, the greater, the better
  8. The lower the black candle closes, the stronger the signal
  9. A large volume during these two candles is significant.

 

Final words

lease note that the Forex and crypto markets rarely have gaps. Therefore, the condition that the second open being below the range of the first candle is almost impossible to satisfy. In this case, we rely solely on the relative size of both candlesticks and the closing above 50 percent of the range of the black candle. Of course, it is almost impossible to get gaps in intraday charts except for spikes due to sudden unexpected events.


 

References: 

The Candlestick Course: Steve Nison

Profitable candlestick Patterns, Stephen Bigalow

Categories
Chart Patterns

Chart Patterns: Flags and Pennants

Flags and Pennants

If you’ve ever traded a chart and you’ve seen what looks like a reversal in the trend, but as soon as you enter the trend seems to continue, odds are you were trading against a continuation pattern. Flags and pennants are titles given to patterns that show up as small countertrend moves that ultimately trap participants and then use their momentum to keep the price moving in the direction of the trend. Flags are represented as rectangular channels, and pennants are represented as triangles.

Before a flag or pennant can be identified, we first need a flag pole. A flag pole is any clear trending price action that, well, looks like a pole. See below:

Flags and Pennants
Flags and Pennants

 

The images above show examples of bearish flags and bearish pennants, as well as bullish flags and bullish pennants. If you are unfamiliar with how to trade triangles or rectangles, refer to the articles that discuss the various triangle patterns. But we can review the basics of entering these great continuation patterns.

Bearish Pennant
Bearish Pennant
Bear Flag
Bear Flag
Bullish Pennant
Bullish Pennant
Bull Flag
Bull Flag

 

Learning how to trade flags and pennants is one of the most useful and enjoyable things that you can learn – especially as a new trader. Flags and pennants help train your brain to get used to buying dips during bull runs and shorting rallies during bear moves. If you get to a point where you can profitably trade flags and pennants, then you have transitioned into a trader who is very near outperforming the vast majority of your peers. It may seem like an easy thing to do – but it is an entirely different thing to execute. Analyzing and identifying a flag or pennant is easy; trading it is difficult.

I can not stress enough how profitable these patterns can be – and how easily you can miss them even in plain sight. The problem resides with your brain – that ‘lizard’ part that kicks in when you are are fearful of your account. When you begin to feel the fear of your account losing money, that triggers a powerful part of your brain known as the limbic system. The limbic system controls fear and pleasure. And when your fear sense is triggered, it hyper focuses the synapsis across your brain. Things that you would passively identify like flags and pennants are tertiary in their importance when the limbic system is acting in your defense. You need to find ways to ‘pause’ the process with things like alerts. On the images above, you saw horizontal lines above prior swing highs and below prior swing lows. Placing alerts at those points may be enough to interrupt your primary fear response and allow you to make money on your emotions.

Because if you are feeling it, so is everyone else.

 

Sources:

Kirkpatrick, C. D., & Dahlquist, J. R. (2016). Technical analysis: the complete resource for financial market technicians. Upper Saddle River: Financial Times/Prentice Hall.

Bulkowski, T. N. (2013). Visual guide to chart patterns. New York, NY: Bloomberg Press.

Bulkowski, T. N. (2008). Encyclopedia of candlestick charts. Hoboken, NJ: J. Wiley & Sons.

Bulkowski, T. N. (2002). Trading classic chart patterns. New York: Wiley.

Categories
Chart Patterns

Chart Patterns: Symmetrical Triangles

Symmetrical Triangles

Out of all the triangle patterns, symmetrical triangles are perhaps the most common and the most common and the most subjective. Symmetrical triangles have a standard neutral bias; however, symmetrical triangles most often form after a prior trend, because they most commonly form after a prior move. The preference of their trading direction is determined by the direction from the previous move. If the preceding move was bullish, then the symmetrical triangle is viewed as a bullish continuation pattern. Like all triangle patterns that form after a trending move, they are known as pennants.

The construction of a symmetrical triangle is like any other triangle: it requires to trendlines that intersect: one upward sloping angle and one downwards sloping angle. Price action should touch both the upper and lower trendlines at least twice – but ideally three times. A lack of open space within the triangle is ideal. Breakouts often occur in the final 1/3rd of the triangle. Volume typically falls before the breakout.

I believe that understanding the psychology of how this pattern forms is essential. The symmetrical triangle is the result of a condition that is very common in any traded market: consolidation. It’s not just common; it’s normal. Consolidation is representative of two things: equilibrium on the part of buyers and sellers and indecision by active speculators. The psychology of price action inside a symmetrical triangle is different than what occurs in an ascending or descending triangle, which both have a marked bias during the construction. Symmetrical triangles are the epitome of indecision, and traders can very quickly fall victim to whipsaws.

Symmetrical triangles, while the most common, are also the most confusing. Take the image below:

Symmetrical Triangle

The symmetrical triangle on the daily chart for the AUDJPY is a bearish pennant – a bearish continuation pattern. While any triangle that forms after an established trending move has a high probability of pushing the price in the direction of the trend, it doesn’t always happen that way. As I wrote above, symmetrical patterns are inherently neutral – so it is important to watch them. We can see that this symmetrical triangle did not cause a continuation move south – it reversed. Regardless of the direction of the breakout, some rules should be applied when entering a trade based on a breakout of a symmetrical triangle.

Symmetrical Triangle - Long Entry
Symmetrical Triangle – Long Entry

First, unlike the ascending and descending triangles, we don’t enter on the break. We want to enter when price breaks the prior high (or low). For the chart above, we would enter long above the previous swing high that touched the downtrend line.

Symmetrical Triangle - Short Entry
Symmetrical Triangle – Short Entry

The short entry from a breakout below a symmetrical triangle is the inverse of the bullish entry. On the chart above, the short entry is when price moves below the prior swing low that tagged the uptrend line – not on the initial breakout.

Pullbacks and throwbacks occur 59% of the time. Symmetrical triangles are notorious for many false breakouts, so look for frequent wicks/shadows to pierce the trendlines. Dahlquist and Kirkpatrick wrote that volume that increases on the breakout increases the performance of the pattern, but it is otherwise below average in its performance.

 

Sources:

Kirkpatrick, C. D., & Dahlquist, J. R. (2016). Technical analysis: the complete resource for financial market technicians. Upper Saddle River: Financial Times/Prentice Hall.

Bulkowski, T. N. (2013). Visual guide to chart patterns. New York, NY: Bloomberg Press.

Bulkowski, T. N. (2008). Encyclopedia of candlestick charts. Hoboken, NJ: J. Wiley & Sons.

Bulkowski, T. N. (2002). Trading classic chart patterns. New York: Wiley.

Categories
Forex Harmonic

The 5-0 Harmonic Pattern

Harmonic Pattern Example: Bearish 5-0 Harmonic Pattern

The 5-0 Harmonic Pattern

Like the Shark Pattern, the 5-0 pattern is a relatively new pattern discovered by the great Scott Carney. Carney revealed this pattern in his second book in his harmonic series, Harmonic Trading: Volume Two.

The 5-0 pattern is easily one of the wonkiest looking patterns. Depending on where you are at with your knowledge of harmonic patterns, the 5-0 will look foreign. And this is primarily because the 5-0 Pattern starts a 0. If you are used to seeing XABCD,  then 0XABCD will undoubtedly look odd.

5-0 Elements

  1. The pattern begins (begins with 0) at the beginning of an extended price move (direct quote from Carney’s work).
  2. After 0 has been established, an impulse reversal at X, A, and B must possess a 113 – 161.8% extension.
  3. The projection off of AB has a 161.8% extension requirement to C. C can move beyond the 161.8% extension but not beyond 224%.
  4. D is the 50% retracement of BC and is equal to AB (a Reciprocal AB=CD Pattern).
  5. The reciprocal AB=CD is required.

One of the best ways to interpret this pattern is to view it from an exasperated trader’s point of view. If we take the Bullish 5-0 Pattern as an example, then we can see why. The AB leg ends with B below X, creating a lower low. We then get an extended move in time where the BC leg is the most prolonged move with C ending above A. The movement from B to C may take on the appearance of a bear flag or bearish pennant. C to D shows intense shorting pressure and a belief among bears that new lows are going to be found. Instead, we get to D – the 50% retracement of BC. Instead of new lower lows, we get a confirmation swing creating a higher low. That move will more than likely generate a brand new trend reversal or significant corrective move.

 

Sources: Carney, S. M. (2010). Harmonic trading. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Financial Times/Prentice Hall.  Gilmore, B. T. (2000). Geometry of markets. Greenville, SC: Traders Press.  Pesavento, L., & Jouflas, L. (2008). Trade what you see: how to profit from pattern recognition. Hoboken: Wiley.

Categories
Forex Harmonic

The Shark Pattern

Harmonic Pattern Example: Bearish Shark

The Shark Pattern

The Shark Pattern is the newest harmonic pattern from Carney’s work (2016). He revealed this pattern in his third book in his Harmonic Trading series, Harmonic Trading: Volume Three.

To gain a further understanding of the terminology used in this article, I would strongly encourage everyone to pick up all three of Carney’s books.

The Shark Pattern shares some of the more peculiar conditions that exist on some of the most extreme patterns. For example, both the 5-0 and the Shark Pattern are not typical M-shaped or W-shaped patterns. The Shark Pattern shows up before the 5-0 Pattern. It also shares a specific and precise Fibonacci level that the Deep Crab shares: The 88.6% retracement.

One behavior that might sound abnormal to all other harmonic patterns is that the reaction to the completion of this pattern is very short-lived. I think this is one of the most potent harmonic setups in Carney’s entire work because I am an intraday trader, and this pattern is very much for active traders.

Shark Pattern Elements

  1. AB extension of 0X must be at least 113% but not exceed 161.8%.
  2. BC extends beyond 0 by 113% of X0.
  3. BC extension of AX must be at least 161.8% but not exceed 224%.
  4. Because the Shark precedes the 5-0 Pattern, the profit target should be limited to the critical 5-0 Fibonacci level of 50%.

 

Sources: Carney, S. M. (2010). Harmonic trading. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Financial Times/Prentice Hall.  Gilmore, B. T. (2000). Geometry of markets. Greenville, SC: Traders Press.  Pesavento, L., & Jouflas, L. (2008). Trade what you see: how to profit from pattern recognition. Hoboken: Wiley.

Categories
Forex Harmonic

The Cypher Pattern

The Cypher Pattern

The Cypher Pattern is another type of Harmonic Pattern – except it isn’t – but it is. This is one of the few patterns not identified by Scott Carney. Darren Oglesbee discovered this particular pattern.

This pattern is very similar to the Butterfly in both it’s construction and where it typically will occur (near the end of trends). However, the Cypher Pattern is a rare pattern and not one that shows up with a high amount of frequency. Don’t confuse rarity with being more powerful or profitable. I do not know enough about this pattern, nor have I had the opportunity to trade it enough to gauge it’s ‘power’ versus its peers. All I do know is that in the times I have traded it, its positive expectancy rate is high, no different than a Bat or Alternative Bat in my experience. The same goes for the Crab and Deep Crab, for that matter. Just like all of the other Harmonic Patterns that you will have learned about, the Cypher has specific rules and conditions that must be met for it to be a specified Cypher pattern.

Cypher Confirmation Conditions

  1. B must retrace to an expansive range between 38.2% and 61.8% of XA. At least 38.2% but not exceeding 61.8%
  2. C is an extension leg and moves beyond A – but must move to at least 127.2%, but it is normal for it to go as far as the 113% – 141.4%. It is considered invalid if it moves beyond the 141.4%
  3. CD leg should break the 78.6% level of XC.
  4. The PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) of D is a wide range where the price must get to. Price can move anywhere between 38.2% to 61.8%.

I’ve created a simplified approach to how to ‘see’ this pattern.

Simplified Approach (Bullish Cypher)

  1. C must be higher than A.
  2. D must be less than B but greater than X.
  3. We should see a higher high (C > A) and a higher low (D > X).

Simplified Approach (Bearish Cypher)

  1. C must be less than A.
  2. D must be more than B but less than X.
  3. The same approach as above, reverse: lower high (D < X) and a lower low (C < A).

This pattern can be confusing (all harmonic patterns can be complicated), but in a nutshell, what we see happening with the Cypher pattern is the first pullback/throwback of a trend (B). After B, the small pullback/throwback of B occurs with the C leg. From a bullish perspective, when we see prices making lower highs and lower lows, but there is no follow-through shorting pressure, we should be on the lookout for some powerful and influential moves to occur in a very short period of time. It is not uncommon to see a bullish candle engulf several days of consolidation with this pattern.

 

Sources: Carney, S. M. (2010). Harmonic trading. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Financial Times/Prentice Hall.  Gilmore, B. T. (2000). Geometry of markets. Greenville, SC: Traders Press.  Pesavento, L., & Jouflas, L. (2008). Trade what you see: how to profit from pattern recognition. Hoboken: Wiley.

Categories
Forex Harmonic

The Alternate Bat Pattern

Harmonic Pattern Example: Alternate Bat Bullish

The Alternate Bat Pattern

The Alternate Bat Pattern is another pattern by Scott M. Carney. This pattern comes from his second Volume Two in his Harmonic Trading series of books. He discovered this pattern roughly two years after (2003) his discovery of the Bat Pattern (2001). Carney wrote that ‘the origin of the alternate Bat pattern resulted from many frustrated and failed trades of the standard framework. The standard Bat pattern is defined by the B point that is less than a 0.618 retracement of the XA Leg.’ Essentially, with the Alternate Bat Pattern we observe an extension beyond the 88.6% level at D, where D moves slightly below X (in a bullish Bat) or above X (in a bearish Bat). I view Alternate Bats as classic and powerful bear traps and bull traps. And they are just plain nasty if you find yourself thinking that a new low means further downside movement and a continuation lower – but instead to you get whipsawed by a massive reversal.

 

Alternate Bat Elements

  • Whereas the 88.6% retracement is nearly singular to the Bat Pattern, the Alternate Bat Pattern utilizes the 113% retracement of XA to determine the endpoint.
  • B must be a 38.2% or less retracement of XA.
  • Minimum projection of 200%
  • The AB=CD pattern must be an extended AB=CD and often is a 161.8% level.
  • The pattern is potent when using a form of divergence detection, such as the Composite Index, to confirm the pattern.

 

Sources: Carney, S. M. (2010). Harmonic trading. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Financial Times/Prentice Hall.  Gilmore, B. T. (2000). Geometry of markets. Greenville, SC: Traders Press.  Pesavento, L., & Jouflas, L. (2008). Trade what you see: how to profit from pattern recognition. Hoboken: Wiley.

Categories
Forex Harmonic

The Gartley Pattern

Harmonic Pattern: Bearish Gartley

The Gartley is probably the most well-known pattern in Gartley Harmonics. Gartley himself said that this pattern represents one of the best trading opportunities. Its profitability remains exceptionally resilient. This is especially true when we consider how old the pattern is and how it has remained profitable in these contemporary trading environments. Pesavento reported (at least I think he was the one who wrote this statistic) that it is profitable seven out of ten times and has remained that way for over 80 years. It is important to remember that all harmonic patterns have stringent ruleset. There is no room for interpretation in the construction of any pattern, and the Gartley pattern is no different.

Rules

  1. D cannot exceed X.
  2. C cannot exceed A.
  3. B cannot exceed X.

Characteristics

  1. X is the high or low of a swing.
  2. It is impossible to project or determine A.
  3. Main Fibonacci levels are 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 78.6%.
  4. Precise 61.7% retracement XA for B.
  5. BC projections have two specific Fibs: 127% or 161.8%.
  6. The BC projection must not exceed 161.8%.
  7. Symmetrical AB=CD patterns are frequent.
  8. C retracement has a wide range between 38.2% and 88.6%.
  9. An exact D retracement is 78.6% of the XA move.

Sources: Carney, S. M. (2010). Harmonic trading. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Financial Times/Prentice Hall Gartley, H. M. (2008). Profits in the stock market. Pomeroy, WA: Lambert-Gann Pesavento, L., & Jouflas, L. (2008). Trade what you see: how to profit from pattern recognition. Hoboken: Wiley

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Forex Courses on Demand

Candlestick Formations – The Complete Guide

Hello and Welcome to this latest installment of on-demand courses by Forex.Academy. In this particular course, we’ll be unveiling the mysteries behind Candlestick Formations, outlining how they can be used to supplement the training decisions of technical traders. Just before we begin, please do take a quick moment to read through the disclaimer and note the financial risks which are involved in trading the financial markets. Please do feel free to pause this recording so that you are familiar with our disclaimer, and we shall proceed to go through exactly what is involved in this particular course. Hopefully, you’ve had an opportunity to go through this.

Right, let’s look now at the course outline. What we do is we pride ourselves on blending theory with practice. What we look at is the display of price information in itself. We’ll introduce you to what’s called Japanese candlesticks. We’ll look at the history of those candlesticks and the origins. We don’t need to break down into quite considerable detail in terms of the anatomy of a Japanese candlestick, we’ll look at how different time frames can impact the information that we as traders use. We’ll look at the different types of Candlestick Formations. And there are many, many different types. They vary from bullish candlesticks to bearish and also neutral candlestick formations as well. Then we’ll look at the link to charting patterns. Obviously, technical trading is identifying patterns of price movement and the purpose of this particular course is to identify the use of Japanese candlesticks within their overall charting picture. It’s important we do link the two. Then we’ll look at some tools that can be used to assist with decision making on a MetaTrader 4 platform. And we’ll finish the theoretical side of this course by looking at the impact that an understanding of Japanese candlesticks can have on your ability to manage risk and therefore protect your capital. We’ll finish as we always do with a session on the practical application of candlestick formations. We do hope you will enjoy that at the end of this course.

Okay. Let’s begin with the display of price information. Price can be displayed in a variety of different ways. Now, some of those ways include originally more of a ticker-tape type of display of price information. For example, there we’ve got the gold. This happens to be the price information of the gold market, and you can see the price is quoted there on the left-hand side, $1333.72, in this case, because it’s backed by the US dollar. And what we can see for the duration of this is that we’re currently on a daily basis, we’re seeing an increase in the price of $15.32. This is an increase of 1.16% in this particular market. That’s just useful information that we, as traders, can look at that information and we can identify right well currently prices moving to the upside, and we can therefore potentially be able to make decisions off the back of that information. Now in addition to the ticker tape, there’s also things like bar charts which gives you very, very simplistic information. Just an example currently up on the screen now, which will, broadly speaking, give you a very basic understanding of entry prices, exit prices, highs, and lows, or should I say open and closed prices along with high and low prices, as well. It’s just a basic form of what we’ll go on to look at in more detail very shortly, which is candlestick formations. In addition to bar charts, we’ve also got line charts. A lot of these different displays of price action can actually effectively give you similar information. But it’s displayed in very, very different ways. And of course, Renko charts as well. There’s pros and cons associated with each of these forms of price information.

I guess the question you need to ask yourself it is which should you choose? In reality, it doesn’t really matter. It is often a personal decision in terms of how you like the information presented to yourself. Now, they all do have pluses and negatives. I won’t necessarily go into the positives and negatives of each particular type. But what is of vital importance is that you can clearly identify the price movements of a chart in line with your own trading strategy. That’s really the important part to take away from this. However, by far, the most commonly used display of price used by traders globally is, without doubt, the Japanese candlestick price chart. That’s the essence of this particular course.

To give you an introduction to Japanese candlestick formations, I’d like to draw your attention to this chart which we’re just going to put up on the screen. Within the nature of this chart, and I just want to just draw your attention to the fact that this is a dollar related daily timeframe as you can see up the top left-hand corner there, and along the x-axis you will find the relevant date associated with the price information currently up on the screen. And, along the y-axis you will find the price movement. What we’re looking at is the price movement over a particular period of time. Now that gives us some fantastic opportunities for technical traders. We can see that the price is, at this particular time frame, is effectively towards the top left of this particular chart. And, we can see what the price is currently at this particular time frame and we can see therefore what is happening to price between those two timeframes. And that this is why technical charting is really useful. Because we can use a number of techniques necessary to get a feeling and understanding for what’s happening to this market.

To just give you a very quick overview, what is clear to see is this market is moving to the downside. We’re in what’s called a bear market. However, this is where our understanding of Japanese candlestick formations can come into its own. Because at every stage within this particular price movement to the downside, the information that’s displayed through price, and as a result, Japanese candlestick formations, can give traders real significant edge in terms of making their trading ideas and executing their trading plan. And that’s really some of the profound benefits that an understanding of Japanese candlestick formations can have. I just want to draw your attention to a specific part of this particular chart. I’ll just bring that up on the screen. Just looking at this particular price action we can see what price action has occurred prior to this point. It’s just largely, I hope you would agree, it’s definitely on the bearish side. Meaning prices are moving to the downside. That’s effectively what we’re seeing. Now, even within this small sample of this price action, we can make certain assessments of what’s going on with this price. We clearly see that as the market moves lower, it then moves into a period of sideways moving consolidation. And we can actually physically see that play out because of our understanding of Japanese candlesticks, where this market really struggles to break above or to break below these levels. And that’s because we’ve got a comprehensive understanding of Japanese candlesticks. But then something really important and significant occurs. I just want to draw your attention to this particular candlestick here where we get a continuation to the downside. And we can see that with volume and momentum pushing prices lower. And it’s price action like that that can give us as traders a real advantage and a real edge in understanding firstly a broader understanding of price movements on a technical price chart. But it’s the use of Japanese candlestick formations that can really give you a significant edge in terms of making decisions when you’re trading these markets. So that’s just a very brief introduction to Japanese candlestick formations, just the basic principle about how they exist within technical charting.

Let’s now just take a couple of steps back and we’ll have a look at the history of Japanese candlesticks. Let’s start at the very beginning. In the early 15th century, the last feudal Japanese military government, which were referred to as the Shogun Tokugawa, unified Japan by pacifying and peacifiying the 60 different ruling Daimyo Feudal Lords. Now, this uniform unification was quite important. What it did was enabled more freedom to be able to trade between the provinces of Japan. To just sort of give you a bit of an image, you know, these this would be a typical image of a Shogun now. That led to some significant developments. What we then saw in the early 16th century was records actually showed that charts were used for the very first time in Japan. And the use of those charts was to record the price movements of the Japanese rice exchanges. Rice was not only the primary dietary staple of the Japanese people, but it was also essential to the Japanese economy because it was used as a unit of exchange also.

It all effectively started with rice. At that particular time, there was as many as 1,300 rice traders working in the Dojima Rice Exchange in Osaka, Japan. And as trade started to develop and volume started to increase, receipts from rice warehouses were accepted as a form of payment, at which particular point the first futures contracts were effectively traded. And that’s quite significant because from this particular era came a very brilliant rice merchant and his name was called Sokyu Honma, or Munehisa Homma for many in India in the West. Munehisa Homma was widely acknowledged as being, and is broadly known as being, the godfather of candlestick charting. Homma himself became such a successful trader that he developed a series of rules which were called the Sakata Constitution.

Now to just touch upon that. When trading the Sakata Constitution, which many, many traders followed, and its Five Methods, traders could now analyse price movements and be able to identify patterns which exist in the financial markets, or in the market of the rice exchange. This would then help them to identify very, very simple trends in the market and therefore increase the chances for increased profits. This is the beauty about technical charting and our understanding of Japanese candlesticks. That is effectively what it allows us to do. Just to conclude this particular session action, you know, the birth of Japanese candlesticks effectively gave traders the ability to extract some very, very useful information which they could then use to make more informed decisions when trading. And it all started with the beautiful rice, as you can see up on screen. That’s just hopefully giving you a comprehensive understanding of the origins of Japanese candlesticks.

Taking that on just a step, I think it’s useful that we do cover the anatomy of a Japanese candlestick. What I’m going to do is just start with what’s called bullish Japanese candlestick. And this simply means that when we see this on a price chart it means that what we’re experiencing is price moving higher, or, price moving to the upside. To isolate one of these Japanese candlesticks, just to show you what it looks like, it would look something similar to what you’re seeing up on-screen on the left-hand side. Now, it has some very, very important characteristics which I do want to elaborate on. The first one, if we just refer to this particular price point down here, and we’re just talking about the bottom edge of this quite large rectangle, the price that’s quoted when we look at Japanese candlesticks, if it’s green in color is actually the open price. And that is really, really significant. All of these candlesticks open and closes at various different times depending on the timeframe that you’re looking at. It’s important to note that each and every candlestick that’s green in color means that prices are moving higher. And it will effectively mean that the open price is at the bottom edge of the rectangle. Let’s just say for argument’s sake, the price at this level is $185. Now let’s also look at another very, very important part of the anatomy of a Japanese candlestick, and this is referred to as the closed price. What we’re talking about is the top edge of a particular Japanese candlestick, and the fact that it’s green in color means it’s bullish. And it’s very important to note that each and every candlestick has what’s called an open price, but also closing price. Whatever time frame you’re looking at, whatever time that particular market closes, it’ll print a particular price. That closing price is quite significant. Let’s just say for argument’s sake we’ve had an increase in price over the course of the day from $185 to $195. We’ve seen a nice explosive move to the upside. 

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However, there’s two more aspects to a Japanese candlestick, each and every candlestick, that you need to be aware of. And that simply means the first one is that each candlestick will have a high price. Let’s say for example, over the course of this candlestick the price peaked at $200 before pulling back a little bit and then closing at the $195 level. So, it records the high price. And then the final piece of this jigsaw is that each and every candlestick, especially a bullish Japanese candlestick, will have a low price. This is the lowest price that this market will have achieved over the course of this time period. Let’s say the market opened at $185. We had a bit of a pullback initially where prices pulled back to $180 before a nice explosive move to the upside, making a high, and then pulling back to close. That’s effectively, the information that this can give traders is quite profound. It’s very, very useful if we see a candlestick that looks something similar to this, then we would expect a continuation to the upside. That’s the information that it can give us. And the size of this green body is quite significant, and it will determine how much momentum exists in a market at any particular time period, and point in time. So, the size of this does have an important role to play. Now, this is a bullish Japanese candlestick. In addition, we also have bearish Japanese candlesticks. And this effectively means that prices are moving lower. What we will see now very shortly is the same for price points, however in reverse. We’re going to start as we always do with an open price. This particular market, having broken to the upside, and closing at $195, now looks like it’s beginning to reverse. Because the open price is, once you get a close price on one particular candle, the next candlestick will open with that same price. However, what we’re seeing with this next candlestick is actually the opposite. We’re seeing the prices close much, much lower to the downside. In this case, we’re actually getting a complete reversal of price action. Where prices are opening at 195 and over the course of this candlestick it actually closes much, much lower at a $185. Now in the meantime, it does also print a high price in this market. Let’s say that’s the $200 level once more, before making a nice extended move lower, creating a low price in this market, $180, before we get that same pullback before this market actually closes. What we can clearly see with this price action is we’re seeing a really nice explosive move to the upside in a bullish candlestick pattern and a really nice explosive move to the downside on a bearish candlestick. These are the important things to note and just identify as well. On a bullish Japanese candlestick, you’ll see the open prices at the bottom edge. Whereas on a bearish candlestick you will see the open prices at the top edge of the rectangle. It’s just the opposite applies. And the same for the closing prices. The closing prices can be located on a bullish candlestick at the top edge. And the closing prices can be identified at the bottom edge of the rectangle if this is a bearish Japanese candlestick. Hopefully, that makes sense.

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What we will do now is we’ll have a look at the importance of the real body. As we’ve alluded to, the difference between the open price and the closing price of the corresponding markets, you know, is represented as the real body of any particular Japanese candlestick. Whether it’s a bullish candlestick where the open is at the bottom and the close is at the top, the difference between the open and the close and this bullish candlestick, is the real body. And the same for a price action to the downside. The open price is much higher, the lower price is lower, and the difference between those two is the real body in this situation. Okay, moving on then. The closing is often the most important piece of information. The close of a particular candlestick is very, very important for us. It concludes the trading session. Whatever that time period happens to be – whether the timeframe of the candlestick is an hour, whether it’s a 4-hour, whether it’s a daily, weekly, or monthly timeframe – the close gives traders some very, very useful information as it gives an insight into market sentiment.

It’s also worth noting that most technical indicators use the closing prices as the basis for their calculations. That’s very, very important to bear in mind as well, and you’ll see that when it comes to using technical indicators. They’re often based on the closing price. It is of significant importance not just to technical traders who read charts, but also to technical indicators as well. Now the size and the color of the real body can provide useful clues regarding potential price moves. If we’re seeing a series of green candlesticks it means we can expect continuation to the upside. If we get a green candlestick followed by a red candlestick it can mean that potentially we might experience a correction in this market. Or, perhaps even, a reversal depending on the information that we get. That is just touching upon the real body of a particular Japanese candlestick, or, in Japanese is referred to as Jittai. That is effectively the real body of any given candlestick.

In addition to the real body we also, as you can see, we can have a shadow. The reason why they’re called Japanese candlesticks is they can often look like candlesticks. However, we often can get a wick to the upside or to the downside, or, as it’s referred to, as an upper shadow. Which is, in Japanese, is Uwakage. And to the downside we would be looking for the lower shadow or wick, and excuse me if my pronunciation is a little bit off, but, Shitakage. It’s a word that I’ve always struggled with. However, there’s no need for you to actually know that at all. It’s just we emphasize the origins of these candlesticks which is Japanese in nature. What we need to do and identify as traders is, the information that we can glean from upper and lower shadows could be quite significant. They are important. The upper shadow represents the area above the real body, and the lower shadow represents the area below the real body. That’s really what you need to take away. It’s the length of the upper and/or the lower shadow which can give traders valuable information regarding potential price moves. For example, we can certainly see a small wick like this on a lovely green candlestick would signify continuation to the upside. Whereas if this closed, so we open at this price here, if the market pulled right back and we saw a close at this market, more around this level down here just for example. If this market closed at that level down there, then the wick would actually be excessive and that could potentially mean that what we’re likely to get next is a bit of a reversal in this market to the downside.

The information that can be gleaned from our knowledge and understanding of Japanese candlesticks can be really, really important. It can give you as a trader some real significant edge trading these markets. So that’s just a bit of an overview in terms of the anatomy of a Japanese candlestick. In terms of the four price points – the highs, the lows, the open, and the close prices. And also, the real body, and of course the shadow to the upside and the shadow to the downside as well.

Bearing that information in mind, we shall now look at some of the different types of candlestick formations. It’s important to note that Japanese candlestick formations come in all shapes and sizes, however each and every one of them can give a trader valuable information with regards to future price moves. There are three categories of candlestick formations for you to embrace.

The first one is Bullish Candlestick Formation. These can be broken down into three different categories we could have Single Bullish Candlestick Formations. We can also have Two Candle Bullish Candlestick Formations. And of course, Three Plus Candlestick Formations. And that just refers to the number of candlesticks that are involved in that piece of analysis. Without confusing you too much, we also have the same when it comes to Bearish Candlestick Formations. We’ve got Single, Two Candle, and Three Plus Candlestick Formations to consider if we’re looking for what would be regarded by traders, as being those that are proficient in technical analysis and understanding price charts, as being Bearish Candlestick Formations. In addition to price action moving to the upside and price action potentially moving to the downside, we also have neutral candlestick formations. Now these can be interpreted as giving neutral price information. But they can gain also significance when these form part of other candlestick formations. In their own right, they can remain somewhat neutral. However, when we start seeing that the price action, which has come before it, and after that particular neutral candlestick formation, then it can then give us some very, very useful information. Often when we see these, we as traders, we look to pause and to just consider what might occur next and allow the market to determine that decision-making process. All we need to do as traders is be prepared for all eventual outcomes and we can do that in a very consistent way.

We have bullish candlesticks, bearish, and neutral candlestick formations to consider. We’re actually going to go through each form one at a time. I thought that, we thought it’d be quite useful for you to see the variations of Single Candlestick Formations. And all of these have implications for bullish price action. Meaning, when we see these sorts of setups, we can look to stack the odds in our favor in terms of having an understanding, in terms of what might happen next, which is all what’s very, very important for us as traders.

We’ll start with the Hammer on the left-hand side and we’ll work across the screen. The candle that is of real interest to us, and don’t forget these are Single Candlestick Formations. Meaning we’re getting price action clearly moving to the downside one period at a time. And then lo and behold the candle gives us, it prints this particular candlestick. It means we see the low price. We can see the high price in this market. It just so happens to be the open as well. And we can see the close of this market. There’s quite an extended gap between the low and the close, and that gives us some real valuable information as a trader. When we see price action like this, traders consider this fairly bullish in a downtrend. Meaning, we’re very likely to get a little bit of price action as a result back to the upside in a market like this. That’s what we can expect from a hammer. You know, it is important to know the names of these different candlesticks. But there’s so many of them, and all we’re discussing in the next few slides is the major candlesticks. There’s many, many more, however. Probably there’s too many variations. Some, you know, a lot, of these major candlesticks can have real profound impacts on the markets. And there’s others which would just probably confuse traders to some degree as well. We’ve just highlighted some of them, the most commonly used candlestick formations, and we’ll explain the anatomy of the actual Single Candlestick Formation itself and what traders can glean from that information.

When we see a Hammer and it also there’s it’s commonly known that you know this sort of single candlestick formation can hammer out a bottom of a market. So, you’re getting that quite explosive move lower. The market puts in this candlestick and this gives fantastic opportunities for traders to start pushing this price higher. Therein lies the potential for us as traders to see this kind of price action and then act accordingly. If you decided to buy above the high of this, it has the potential to give you a significant risk reward potential to the upside if you see this kind of price action.

Moving along then to an Inverted Hammer. This time, as you can see, we’re going to focus very very carefully on the anatomy of this particular candlestick just in here. It’s just middle one that we’re really focusing on. What we’re seeing is that again that price move consistently, make new lows. We can clearly see that price action is moving lower and what we see then is an Inverted Hammer. It’s the same as the Hammer, it’s just the actual hammer end is at the bottom of the shadow rather than at the top. But for all intents and purposes when we see this price action it’s referred to as an Inverted Hammer. And what the signal that that sends to traders when they trade is that is potentially considered bullish in a particular downtrend. Again, we are prone to this kind of price action and there’s no guarantees that this market will behave like that. But you are stacking the odds in your favour if you can identify this price action and perhaps you… we’re going to look at the approach to risk management very shortly. But what you’ll often see is a reversal in prior action. And it’s not guaranteed every single time. It’s just you’re probably stacking the odds in your favor more by utilizing your understanding in this way.

Moving on to a Dragonfly Doji now, so what we’re seeing in this market again is this market continued to move to the downside and on this occasion, we make a low in this market. But as you can see, we get a bit of a reversal on price action and what this is telling us is the open and the close of this market is exactly the same however, and the high should I say. There’s a lot going on here with this candlestick. The market opens, it moves to the downside. There’s a complete reversal, and a rejection of these lows, and we get buying pressure coming into this market to such an extent that the open, the close, and the high of the market is exactly the same price, or very, very close to being the same price. Again, what you’re likely to experience is that the longer the lower shadow signals are, the more potential for upside movement. When this appears at the bottom it is considered to be a fairly strong reversal signal. Looking for Dragonfly Dojis can give traders a real advantage and as a trader you can make that decision to look to drive that price back to the upside. So that’s Dragonfly Doji Single count Candlestick Formations.

We’ll just finish the fourth one, which is bullish spinning top. This one I want to draw your attention to this middle candlestick just in there, and we’re getting some bullish price action now on this particular situation and we get to see a brand new high in this market. However, the market at some point sort of reverses to make a considerable low and it struggles to get back up to those previous highs. That effectively, is referred to as a Spinning Top and it’s a Bullish Spinning Top just because it’s got a significant bullish, it’s green in color, so it has a bullish connotation to when we see this on a price chart. So, the size of the shadows can vary and are probably less important unless they’re quite extreme. And if we see this kind of price action, and certainly if we get a break above the high price, then we’re very likely to see continuation and is viewed by traders as being quite bullish in an uptrend. It’s important that we do see the bullish price action prior to this candlestick and if we get a break above the high, we’re very likely to see a continuation to the upside. And this is how traders utilize these formations to understand exactly what’s going on with price, and what is the likeliest next in these markets. That’s just an overview of four of the main Single Candlestick Formations.

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What we also have is Two Candlestick Formations, as well. Again, we shall go through these one at a time. We’ll start on the left-hand side and we’ll look for Bullish Kicker Candlestick formations. Now we’re effectively looking for two candlesticks. It’s not a single candlestick that can give us the information, it’s actually what’s going on in the relationship between two different candlesticks. What we mean by that is we’re seeing in this example we’re seeing price move lower and then we see this candlestick printed. This is candlestick 1 for us, and we’re also looking at this one just above. And what information does this kind of price action give us? What I’ll do is I’ll just place this 2 just above this particular candlestick just so that you are comfortable in terms of which two candlesticks we’re referring to. We can see on this fourth bearish candlestick that price is closed lower it’s very, very bearish in this particular market. But on the very next period or the next day, if this is a daily timeframe, what we can see with the next candlestick is that we close down here, however we open significantly higher. In fact, we open above the previous candlestick. If this is the open of the previous day, we can see the open is just above it, however the closed price is quite significantly lower than that particular level. We see the close of this candlestick, we see the open. But we also, most importantly, see the open of the new candlestick. And in a situation like this it’s regarded as being very, very bullish indeed. It’s considered bullish when the next green candlestick gaps to the upside. So, there’s a gap in there and it just means that a lot of the sellers have been blown out of the water. Those that look to buy markets like this will look to aggressively push higher. Again, not every single case. But certainly, the odds would be stacked in your favour if that is the case more often than not.

Moving on then to a personal favourite of mine which would be Bullish Engulfing. Here what we can see is again we can see quite consistently a series of markets. These don’t necessarily have to move in a linear fashion, these could be a little bit erratic. But what’s important to take away of this is the previous candlestick. I’m looking at Candlestick 1, and also the very next Candlestick 2. And it’s these two candlesticks which interest us. What we can see is this market open lower and we can see that the close of this price is significantly higher. And what it does is it completely engulfs all of these candlesticks. They’re completely engulfed by one day of price action, if this happens to be daily timeframes. Whatever this period is, it doesn’t necessarily matter. When you see a print of a candlestick like this, it effectively blows all these candlesticks out of the water and we get to see some real dominance in this market. What this means is quite bullish if we see a bullish engulfing two candlestick formation which exists. We need to engulf the previous candlestick and if that occurs to multiple candlesticks, that’s even better, and it adds more credibility to the trader and certainly more confidence in that market. It’s considered a major bullish signal in a downtrend if this market is moving lower, we get a Bullish Engulfing, and we can often see some really nice explosive price action to the upside. And I’ll show you some practical examples of this very shortly.

Moving on then to Bullish Harami. In this situation we’re getting some quite considerable selling pressure. You can see its kind of an inverted Bullish Engulfing. But we’re seeing a complete dominance to the downside until we get this. Again, in this situation we’re looking at Candlestick 1 and we’re looking at the very next, Candlestick 2, and we can see that that price opens, closes, high and low is all contained within the price action of the previous candlestick. What this does, as far as sellers is concerned, is put a question mark in their mind. Would they expect to see further continuation to the downside once we get a bit of a Bullish Harami in this situation where we’re actually getting a close much lower and we’re getting the open much higher within that candlestick? That creates a bit of doubt in the minds of sellers. And it gives bullies a fantastic opportunity to look to capitalise on this price action, look to get into this market, and look to drive this price higher. This is stacking the odds in your favour again to the upside if you identify a Bullish Harami in this way. It’s considered a bullish signal in a downtrend.

That’s the Bullish Harami and we’ll just finish the Two Candlestick Formations by just reviewing what’s called a Piercing Line. What we’re seeing in this particular candlestick, and again, I would like to I would like you to draw your attention to these two candlesticks in here, one bearish, one bullish. I just put those numbers just above these candlesticks, and what we’re seeing is price action move consistently lower. And the fourth candlestick here is what is of interest to us. We’re actually seeing the next candlestick open much lower, and the price action actually pushes lower. We’re clearly operating in a price action that would be conducive to sellers until price starts to reverse, and we start getting this little bit of buying pressure coming in. And what’s often identified is 50% of the previous candlestick is really what’s quite important. What we’re seeing is we’re actually getting a close of this market above. We’re seeing before our very eyes a bit of a rejection of the previous price action having made new lows. A lot of this starts to stack up in the minds of a trader, certainly those that are looking to buy this market and they’re seeing the rejection to the downside. They’re seeing the market open lower, which is quite bearish, and we’re seeing a reversal of that bearish price action. And we’re actually seeing the market close above 50% of the previous candlestick.

 

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With all this in mind, and what this has great potential for, is some nice explosive price action to the upside, and start printing new highs from these levels. So, it’s considered a bullish reversal signal when it opens lower but closes back above halfway of the preceding candlestick. These are just metrics, it’s roughly 50%, but you know you don’t have to be too precise with that. But you just got to be open to the fact that it’s a clearly defined reversal signal and we’re very likely to get some bullish price action off the back of a piercing line. Those really are your two candlestick formations to the upside where you’re likely to get some bullish price action off the back of them.

Let’s finish the Bullish Candlestick Formations and we’ll look at Three Plus Candlestick Formations. Now, you know we’ve identified four main Three Plus Candlestick Formations. there are more out there. But these will certainly give you a very comprehensive understanding in terms of what is going on in these markets if you’re able to identify these candlestick formations. We’ll start again on the left-hand side by looking at the Morning Star. What we’re seeing in this kind of price action is price consistently moving lower. The reason why we’re looking at a Three Plus is that it can contain three or more candlesticks, effectively. Now, we’re looking at this first candlestick, this second one just in here, and we’re also now looking at the third candlestick for us to get the information that we need to really act and to utilize this information. What we’re seeing is three days of bearish price action, if this was a daily timeframe. And the fourth candlestick actually gaps down lower. But it doesn’t continue lower. As you can see, we have a green body which is actually bullish in nature. What we’re seeing is effectively a reversal signal even though this market is gapped lower. We’re clearly seeing the close of this market and the open considerably lower. This is effectively the gap in this market. that is not to be ignored.

When we see these gaps, you know, what price action do we see next? And we see the fact that, in fact the open of this market is even lower than that. This is the gap which is quite considerable and what we see price action do next is make a new low, and then all of a sudden, it actually becomes quite bullish where we actually close higher. And then that extended that is extended in the third candlestick and then you’re very likely to see that for subsequent candlesticks. It’s just being a little bit patient, you’re seeing this price action. It might be more prudent for you to get into a Morning Star after the third candlestick which is actually closed. And that can give you the very important information to be able take this market higher. Now there’s all sorts of variations with this third candlestick. It can close much, much lower and that might mitigate the potential for such a strong reversal signal. So, we need to see some bullish price action off the back of the gap, lower. This price action is considered a major reversal signal in a downtrend. The market has to be moving to the downside and if we see this price action with two and three, we’re very likely to see continuation to the upside, in this example.

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Moving on to Bullish Abandoned Baby. Again, just to identify that this market is moving lower and the three mark, the three candlesticks, we’re really interested in are these three, as you can see. When we go to the first candlestick we can see, we see a normal sort of consistent move lower. We are in a downtrend and what we see is an Abandoned Baby. All of these names are weird and wonderful. You know you don’t necessarily need to memorize all of these different types of candlestick formations. But what you do need to understand and comprehend is that you know when you see price action like this it can look and it can become very, very bullish. What we’re seeing is a considerable gap lower where this market again gaps down quite considerably. We’re seeing a really significant gap in this particular example; however, it doesn’t continue lower. We get a little bit of a reversal pushing to the upside and then the very next day, if this is a daily timeframe, the market actually gaps again to the upside. Without confusing you too much, we get two gaps in this market and this is very, very bullish indeed if we get this kind of price action. We’re getting two gaps in this market and then we need to literally wait and see what happens to the third candlestick. And if the conditions are right, then you’re very likely to experience a considerable reversal in this market. It’s considered a major bullish signal in a downtrend. That is a Bullish Abandoned Baby.

Moving on then to Three Soldiers. What we’re seeing now in this particular situation is continuation to the downside, as you can see. And the three candlesticks we’re looking at in particular would be… this market continued to move lower, and it’s these three candlesticks that get to offset a lot of the bearish price action in the action in the candlesticks which came before it. What we’re looking for here is three long green candle sticks with consecutively higher closes in a downtrend. And this is considered a very, very, not a significant, reversal signal in this market. We’re getting really quite significant price moves to the downside. But then this particular market fails to make a new low and we actually start printing three consecutively higher you know long green candlesticks. In this situation it’s the size of the candlestick which is quite important and as you can see these are three significant bullish candlesticks which means that if we can mitigate most of the previous price action then it’s looking considerably, significantly, bullish to the upside in this situation. So that’s Three Soldiers in a downtrend.

The the final Three Plus Candlestick Formation is Three Line Strike. This is, as you can see, sort of fairly similar to a Bullish Engulfing if you see this in a downtrend. What we’re needing to see is we’re kind of looking at, and this is why it’s Three Plus, we’re kind of looking at these three bearish candlesticks and then we’re seeing the fourth candlestick which completely blows these three previous candlesticks out of the water. It’s considered a major bullish reversal signal when in a downtrend. You can clearly see that opportunities to buy perhaps above the high would constitute continuation to the upside in price action like this.

Okay, so that concludes an overview of the different types of Bullish Candlestick Formations. I’ll take off those scribbles and we’ll move on with the presentation. We’ll look into this time Bearish Candlestick Formations. Again, as you can see, a lot of these names are very different, there’s aspects which are similar. A lot of these are very similar to the Bullish Candlestick Formations, just they’re actually more bearish than bullish. When you identify opportunities like this in the market, you should be looking for opportunities for these markets to be moving lower, in this case. And we’ll start again with the Hanging Man, and again this is a Single Candlestick Formation. Again, what we can see is a little bit of a reversal in this situation. It’s kind of the opposite of a Hammer. What we’re seeing now is price action squeeze higher and we’re seeing this one candlestick, just in here, which opens above and then starts to push much, much lower, create a low in this market, pullback, and is still looking a little bit on the bearish side. And if we get continuation the following day then what we’re likely to see is a nice a nice move lower. The lower shadow should be at least twice as big as the body. And that’s an important aspect of this market. If we’re saying the body of a Hanging Man, it would need to be at least one third of the overall range of this market. Meaning you want to see a long lower shadow, at least twice as long as the body, otherwise it means something slightly different.

It’s whether a market conforms to this type of price action which will determine what your steps are, what potential trade ideas you could look to execute. As you can see we’re getting a little bit of a reversal price action off the back of a Hanging Man. It’s just called a Hanging Man just because it gives the appearance on a chart, you know if this is a man’s head, then he it gives the appearance that it looks like he’s hanging there. Okay so it’s a bit morbid, but it is referred to as a Hanging Man.

So, in addition, moving on to a Shooting Star. We’re seeing quite bullish price action as you can see. We make a brand-new high which is obviously great at the time, however we start to reverse this price action and actually we open at this level and we close much lower. That is significantly bearish and what it means is, this is now a Shooting Star and it’s considered a significant bearish bit of price action in an uptrend. What we’re needing to see this time is market looking like it’s just about to roll and it could give you fantastic opportunities to take this market lower if you see price action like that.

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Moving on then to Gravestone Doji. We’re seeing this market push higher on this occasion. And on this occasion, we’re looking at this candlestick in here. Again, this middle one just in there. That’s what we would be looking at. And again, the Gravestone Doji candlestick means that this market pushes higher. But as you can see it rejects the high, starts pushing to the downside, and this time it’s a very similar bit of price action to the Dragonfly Doji which is quite bullish. Now, the Gravestone Doji is actually quite bearish. I’m going to just remove this here, hide, so it doesn’t confuse you. We’re actually now seeing the low-priced the open and the close all at the same level and this is very, very bearish and can give traders fantastic opportunities to actually look to take this trade actually to the downside. When this bit of price action appears at market tops it is considered to be a reversal signal and quite a significant one at that.

So, moving on then to Bearish Spinning Top. We’re seeing this market continue. It’s the opposite of a Bullish Spinning Top where we get a bit of indecision in this market you know; this is the candlestick we’re looking at. We get a bit of indecision in this market; it has the potential to reverse. A break above these highs could potentially mean that we could be reversing to the upside. However, what we actually see is the market continued pushing lower. That is actually quite important where we can see continued sort of bearish price action. What should be taken note of is the previous price action which has been quite bearish, and also the size of the shadow itself to the upside or the downside can vary somewhat. And you’re really needing to see the continuation of prices pushing lower. And under the circumstances like this, this is quite a Bearish Spinning Top. You’re likely to see prices move to the downside.

Okay, those are the Bearish Single Candlestick Formations. Moving on then to the Two Candlestick Formations and we’ll start with the Bearish Kicker. Which is the opposite of a Bullish Kicker. We’ll start with this one first. We’re getting we’re seeing consistent price action to the upside. The candlestick we are looking at is this candlestick in here, and also this second candlestick here. And what we’re actually seeing is the market close so much higher, and it actually gaps lower. We actually open considerably lower than the close of the previous candle and it actually gaps lower. It actually opens beneath the open of the previous candlestick. That is quite significant and quite bearish in its own right. And off the back of that you’re very likely to see continuation of prices pushing lower. it’s considered bearish when the next red candlestick gaps to the downside. It’s the fact that we’re experiencing a gap and the nature of this second candlestick is red in color and quite bearish. Meaning we’re very likely to see price action squeezing lower.

Okay, moving on now to a Bearish Engulfing. This is considered a major bearish signal in an uptrend. Again, you know these are personal favorites. I do like to see price action squeeze higher. So, this is Candlestick 1, and this is Candlestick 2 that we are interested in. And actually, this engulfs this bearish candlestick. It engulfs the previous price action of all three candlesticks. But the previous one is a starting point, and if it engulfs more candlesticks than that, then it can just add more conviction to the trades that you’re looking to take. And as you can see, the open and the close blow these bullish candle sticks out of the water. And we’re going to we’re very likely to see continuation of prices moving to the downside. When you see a Bullish or a Bearish Engulfing Candlestick you should sit up and take note of that price action because you’re very likely to see some significant opportunities off the back of it. It is considered a major bear signal in an uptrend. You’re getting prices moving higher, you’re getting reversal signal, and you’re very likely to see prices push lower.

Okay, moving on to Bearish Harami now. These candlesticks, like we saw in the Bullish Harami, in this occasion is pushing higher and we see price action contained within the previous candlestick. This is kind of stick one that we’re looking at this is candlestick – we can see that the price action is contained comfortably within the range of the previous number one candlestick which is quite bullish, and the nature of the Harami is bearishness in this situation. And what you’re likely to see in a situation like that is continuation of price action actually to the downside. It’s considered a bearish signal in an uptrend. That’s something for you to consider. A Bearish Harami.

We’ll just finish the Two Candlestick Formations by looking at a Dark Cloud Cover. This is an interesting bit a bit of price action. What we’re seeing in a situation like this is that this is very much considered a bearish reversal signal when it opens higher but closes back below halfway of the preceding candlestick. That is significantly important. What we’re seeing is price action look quite bullish where we’re getting this this little move to the upside. It’s quite similar to the Piercing Line. But what we see is prices open higher, which is bullish at that particular point. And what we are looking at is Candlestick 1, and also Candlestick 2. What we need to see is prices push higher and then a bit of a reversal of that particular price action. However, it’s important that approximately the market reverses quite considerably so that we break below the roughly the 50% level on Candlestick 1. And that’s really structurally quite important because what you’re likely to see when you see setups like this is a continuation to the downside. It is considered a very bearish reversal signal when it opens higher but closes back below halfway of the preceding candlestick. And you’re very likely to be able to capitalize on a bit of a price move to the downside in this market if you’re trading a Dark Cloud Cover. Okay, so that covers some of the major Two Candlestick Formations.

We will finish the Bearish Candlestick Formation action with looking at Three Plus Candlestick formations. We’ll start as we always do on the left-hand side looking at an Evening Star Formation. What we’re looking at here is some bullish price action or what we should be looking for is some bullish price action. The three candlesticks we’re very interested in is one, this little candlestick up here, and then the third one in play there. And potentially subsequent candlesticks as well. But we work with these three for the time being where we get a close of the candlestick number one. We get a considerable gap higher in this market and that’s quite important because that’s referred to as an Evening Star. And what we’re seeing is in fact I’ve kind of done it again. But what we’ll do is we’ll work with the level at which this market opens, which is that high of the rectangle on a bearish candlestick. We’re getting a considerable gap in in this market. It’s important to consider that prices have gapped to the upside. But we’re getting a bit of a reversal price action. We’re looking like we’re going to close this particular gap. And potentially, if it breaks lower then we’re likely to get continuation to the downside. When we see an Evening Star it’s considered a major reversal signal in an uptrend. We’re very likely to see that bit of price action look to squeeze lower in a market like this.

Moving on this time to a Bearish Abandoned Baby rather than a Bullish Abandoned Baby. We’re seeing the market look quite bullish which is making new highs, the market gaps up. The gap is quite interesting. I’ll put G for gap. But the market fails to make considerable highs and actually starts to reverse. The close of Candlestick 2. I’ll put 2 in here, and then number 3 down at the bottom. The close of Candlestick 2 is quite significant because if we get a smaller gap it doesn’t matter the size of the gap necessarily. But in this example, we’re getting a smaller gap. But we’re getting continuation with Candlestick 3. And that’s the important part of a Bearish Abandoned Baby is that you’re seeing this abandoned baby here at the top. But now you’re getting some quite, these are quite good, bearish signals for us as traders to try and take advantage of. And it’s considered a major bearish signal in an uptrend. Okay, that’s the Bearish Abandoned Baby.

Moving along, let’s have a look at the Three Black Crows. This is similar to the Three Soldiers in a Bullish Candlestick Formation. What we’re getting this time is some initial bullish price action. What’s interesting for us to look at in this situation like this, is a bit of an unraveling of those of previous bullish price action with three very, very bearish candlesticks. What we’re looking for here is three long red candle sticks with consecutively lower closes in a downtrend. This is considered a significant reversal signal when you see price action like this. You’re very likely to see continuation to the downside if you see Three Black Crows. They mitigate against a lot of the work by the bulls in this market, where price action is pushing higher. Now, these three back-to-back Black Crows are very likely to give extended opportunities to the downside and become quite bearish.

And just the last one, an Evening Doji star. This is what we’re currently seeing up on screen now. Again, the three candlesticks that we’re looking at is Candlestick 1, Candlestick 2, and also Candlestick 3. And what we’re seeing is some bullish price action pushing prices higher. We can see that the close of candlestick number one is quite significant and certainly pushing higher and the open absolutely gaps to the upside on Candlestick 2. There is a bit of a gap to the upside, which you may think looks quite bullish, but what we see is we get actually a bit of indecision in this market. We can’t push higher; we can’t push lower. The open and the close price of Candlestick 2 is actually the same. What it, it puts it some indecision in the minds of those buyers because now they’re there, they’re looking at this price action, and they’re actually anticipating opportunities for sellers to enter this market and to drive prices lower. At which case, if we see Candlestick 3 start to move to the downside, then that, for all intents and purposes, signifies a significant reversal signal in what was an uptrend. It is considered a very very major bearish reversal signal. When we identify it in an uptrend prices have to be moving to the upside, we need to see the Evening Doji Star and then we need to see price action look to reverse. Then that can give us some fantastic opportunities to the downside. Okay, so that’s an overview of Bearish Candlestick Formations.

There’s one set of candlestick formations that we need to look at, and that is those candlestick formations which are Neutral in nature. These candlesticks are very much neutral by nature but can gain significance when they form part of other candlestick formations. It’s actually what often precedes it and then comes after these candlesticks is what can give us some very very useful information. We’ll start by a very popular candlestick which is called a Doji Candlestick. Now, for all intents and purposes, when we see these candlesticks on a price chart it creates some indecision. Meaning it’s largely neutral. We don’t know whether buyers or sellers are in control of this particular market. It’s very, very neutral in nature. But what we’re seeing technically is the market open. It doesn’t matter whether it’s moved higher or move lower. Let’s say for example it’s moved higher. We’ve made a new high in this market. We’ve also pushed lower and made a new low and price comes back to close at the same level as the open. This is the anatomy of a Doji Candlestick in this situation. These largely Neutral Candlesticks have long shadows but very smaller or non-existent bodies. The size of the shadow can vary greatly. We can have normal Dojis and we can have a long-legged Doji Candlesticks as well and that just sort of tends to give the impression of some considerable extended indecision in markets, depending on the size or the difference between the highs and the lows in markets like these. The size of the shadows can vary and can vary quite dramatically. But they really do gain importance when they form part of other formations. And what we mean by that is if the next candlestick starts to push to the upside, then that lends itself to some continuation in prices looking to push higher. The same to the downside if we start breaking the daily lows, then you’re very likely to see a price action move lower. That’s effectively what can happen with these price moves, you can have prices moving higher or you can also have potentially prices moving lower off the back of what is a Doji Candlestick. So that hopefully gives you a bit of an idea. But you know traders do understand these candlesticks as more like indecision candlesticks rather than neutral. I do bear that in mind as well.

Moving on then to Spinning Top Candlesticks. These are quite similar to Doji Candlesticks however the main difference is the real body, which you can see from a bullish perspective and also from a bearish specific perspective. These largely Neutral Candlesticks have long shadows. But very, very small bodies, as you can see. Now the size of the shadow can vary again quite considerably. These can be quite extended, or they can be quite short, and they gain as well importance as a part of other formations. The same thing applies. If we get price action breaking above the high, we’re likely to see continuation to the upside and a break beneath the low we’re likely to see price action move lower. And the same for a Spinning Top which has a bearish viewpoint to it we’re likely to see prices squeezed lower and we are also potentially likely to see prices move higher. It actually depends on what comes next. And we also want to take note of what comes before it you know if we’re seeing some bullish price action, we might get continuation, or we might get reversal. It’s really identifying what comes before and then making decisions in terms of what we’re likely to see next. Those are Spinning Top Candlesticks.

Moving on then to Marubozu Candlestick Formations. As you can see, as opposed to a Doji Candlestick, where the high and the low, and the open and the close, should I say are exactly the same, the opposite of that would be a Marubozu Candlestick. Where the open and the low price, the open and low, and the close and the high. That’s what we’re seeing in a bullish Marubozu and it’s the opposite way around. Now we’re seeing the open plus the high price and the close plus the low. That’s what we’d want to bear in mind when we’re talking about Marubozu close is that we’re getting the highs in the close and the opens and the lows which is virtually the same price. A normal or long candlestick with no shadow meaning the high price and the low price represent the opening and closing prices of the respective Japanese candlesticks. That’s just an explanation of what we’re seeing. We’re just seeing an accumulation of prices stacking up. And these are always quite interesting because again we’d be interested to see whether from the close whether this market starts to move lower or whether we start getting extension pushing higher. We can actually it can actually work both ways off a candlestick like this either to the upside we’re likely to see prices push higher off that level or also potentially push lower. That’s the situation regarding Marubozu Candlestick Formations. And again, in their nature, all of these three are relatively neutral or create indecision let’s say for technical traders. But it all can contribute to a coherent approach to trading these markets.

Let’s move on then and we’ll look at you know different time frames and the different information that can be gleaned from looking at different time frames. Now, it is very important to note that you can view candlestick formations in different time frames. The larger the time frame normally, the more important the signal can become. And to show you this I’d like to bring up a price chart. Let’s review a live chart to explain this in more detail, excuse me, let me take that back and let me get up the price chart here for you. What we’re currently seeing on chart right now and if we do our technical analysis, we can see there’s effectively a double bottom here. There’s potentially a little bit of the potential for this market to eventually maybe squeeze higher. We’d be looking at these levels in here to see if we get a bit of a push higher. Now we’ve just had a pullback off these levels. That’s quite interesting, so you know this market could very easily you know look to squeeze higher or could look to squeeze further lower as well. We want to bear that in mind. We can quite clearly see over the course of this time frame, and a this is an hourly candlestick, each one of these candlesticks that you’re currently seeing up on screen represents various different information on an hourly basis. We can see our Doji candlesticks and we can see the price action of this hour. We can see nice big extended continuation candlesticks. We can also see you know Bearish Engulfing and there’s a whole myriad of different types of candlestick formations that we can use.

Now to just sort of highlight and show you, and this is a live chart currently, we can do our analysis on this time frame. I want to go through the time frames and look at higher time frames and see how the picture starts to change. You can see that we’re kind of getting a bottoming out of this market. We’ve kind of created a double low on an hourly timeframe. Let’s look at it on a on a four-hourly chart. You can see this this convergence down here at the bottom of this price. We’re struggling to break beneath this level here above the 131 level. And this is the EURJPY. Now, each of these candlesticks represent four hours of price action. You can get your Marubozu Candlestick on a 4-hour chart which is the open and the high is exactly the same as the close and the low, which you would expect continuation, which we see we get a little bit of a pullback and then we get continuation to the downside. And you get your Bearish Engulfing in there as well and you get this sort of grinding price action, you know squeezing prices lower. We’re currently struggling to break beneath the 131 roughly down at this bottom right hand corner. We might see some continuation pushing higher. But generally, prices moving from top left to bottom right.

The timeframe that you look at is of significant importance to us as traders because our impression can change slightly depending on the timeframe that we look at. We take this information on to a daily timeframe and now we can actually see, we can conduct a little bit of technical analysis. We can see that this level is quite important. We can see our Bearish Spinning Top Candlestick and we can also see our Hanging Man which is not quite made the low. But you can see this Hanging Man which is actually today’s candlestick. Let’s see what happens what we’re seeing is a bit of bearish price action which precedes it. Really, we would be looking to see, what happens next would give us some really interesting information. We can give that some very, very interesting very easy and straightforward candlestick fashion candlestick analysis and technical analysis to this chart, to give us a little bit more information. But you can see we’re on the back end of a quite considerable move lower and we’re getting a bit of a rejection of prices moving lower in this situation. You can therefore make decisions based on different time frames. Based upon the different opportunities that may exist. You might find some buying opportunities on an hourly chart, whereas if you can move up the time frames, you can see sort of a little bit more clearly.

You can see that we’re actually now looking at a weekly time frame. We’re in a significant bull run basically since 2016. Prices are moving higher over this particular time frame and we’re seeing a bit of consolidation around these levels which just coincides with our very briefly drawn level of support around the 130-147 level and we’re getting just prices just gathering around this level. When you go through the different time frames, you can then see again we’ve got a Bearish Spinning Top, and it all depends on what happens next. And if what happens next puts a bit of indecision in a trader’s mind, then it can give opportunities for traders to actually look to take this price even higher. It can very much, when you go through the time frames and you look at Japanese candlesticks, it can very much give you a different impression in terms of the information that you need. Now again, you go even higher than that. And without the need to confuse you to any great extent, you can see that we’ve got a Bearish Engulfing. On a monthly timeframe if you if you happen to be trading really, really long timeframes, you would expect continuation to the downside. We’ve got highs, we’ve got lows, we’ve got swing highs again. This could be a high of this market on the top left-hand corner. We have a lower high, and now we have another lower high once more. And when you mix that with your understanding of Japanese candlesticks and perhaps Bearish Engulfing, and we’re seeing the same again, we’re just likely to get some continuation in this market pushing prices lower. That’s how you can use different timeframes and your understanding of Japanese candlesticks and if we get a break beneath the monthly low, then we would expect and anticipate, on a monthly timeframe, for this market to move lower.

Of course, your approach to risk may deviate somewhat and I shall explain that very, very shortly. But that’s hopefully just explained to you that how different timeframes can impact the decisions that we take as traders.

Okay, and just to link and I’ve kind of just alluded to it, but it’s also important to note that candlestick formations do not necessarily need to stand alone when it comes to decision making as a trader. They can form part of a much, much bigger picture. For example, you can often, you can often see a situation on a price chart where you identify a candlestick formation. But it forms part of a bigger charting pattern. As a result, the idea is for you to use the information a price chart can give you to formulate trade ideas. It’s effectively looking to put all these things together. I just want to share this chart with you, it’s a static chart. We’re getting some price action pushing higher, we can see that we get a bit of a pullback in this market, and then we push considerably higher withso.me considerable momentum. When we look at a price chart like this, we can see that we’ve had some rejections here to the upside and it’s a very, very poorly constructed Bearish Spinning Top which has the potential to see these prices move lower. However, it would certainly look to create a bit of indecision. We’re not necessarily suggesting that you need to trade all of these decisions or you can even make money on all of them you may do for a particular period of time.

But you need to take into account you know a lot more information perhaps previous price action and seeing how things develop and unfold. But you’re getting quite a number of very sort of bearish price action in markets like this. You’re getting a triple top which is important, and another sort of charting pattern that we can see would be a kind of a Head & Shoulders. You can see the symmetry moving across this price action. If I just draw sort of fairly simple lines you can see that we have our shoulders here and you could see that this could formulate a fairly easy to identify head, followed by another shoulder. And it’s the symmetry of price action like that which can give us really, really useful information. If we’re coming to the price action like this where we’re getting a bit of a Spinning Top, and a bit of price action which is looking kind of like a Shooting Star, slightly bigger Shooting Star, then you know all of these price actions don’t necessarily need to conform to any great extent. They need to be variations of candlestick formations that you identify followed by a Bearish Spinning Top. And then, that’s just very likely to see continuation of prices moving lower before you get your major Bearish Engulfing Candlestick which is quite bearish looking to take this market lower.

But from a from a technical perspective we can look to put information together in a very coherent manner to decide what we should do with these markets. We can have charting patterns, we can have our Head & Shoulders price action, and if we blend that nicely with our understanding of these candlesticks, we can look for really, really prime opportunities to get into this market with the view to look to sell it and look to capitalize. And then when other charting patterns start to materialize, you can formulate an extended trade plan on that basis. That’s just hopefully linking our understanding of Japanese candlesticks which can be standalone decisions that traders can make. And if you can blend them in with charting patterns, because the you know Head & Shoulders, in this example, is quite bearish in its own right. You can put your understanding of Japanese candlesticks, and your understanding of charting patterns as well, you can put those together and formulate a really useful approach to trading.

Let’s have a look at some technical tools now that can be used to assist with decision making. Let’s take a look at some of the technical tools that you can use on a live price chart. I’ll bring up our live price chart again and we will move this along a chart. We can see this price chart up on screen, and some of the tools that we can use, we can certainly label certain bits of price action in here. What I’m going to do first is just identify this price action on this chart. And I’m going to identify, or isolate should I say, these three bits of price action. When we identify, and what we’re looking for, is almost big-picture moves. We’re looking to see you know what occurs in these levels. Is there anything that I can identify from this that can give me useful information? The answer to that question is sometimes it might do, sometimes it might not, you know. This is where skill and experience starts to come in. We’re looking for these major highs and major lows, and identify, can any decisions be made off the back of this can we see rejection on numerous candlesticks and can we see potentially some bullish price action entering this market.

 I’m going to look at these three in turn and then as this market sort of clearly breaks to the downside, can we see anything that we that we can suggest that might be significant to us when we trade. This is the principle and the approach that traders are going to take with regards to formulating trade ideas. And this is where our understanding of Japanese candlesticks can come in quite nicely. Just to identify, we’ll have Candlestick 1, Candlestick 2, and we should also look at Candlestick 3. What you can do when you identify these interesting situations on a chart, we can sort of utilize some of these tools up here. You can put a little text box in here and Candlestick 1 for us and would be a Shooting Star. Put that in there. What I’ll do as well, I’ll just change the format. You can change the color, you know, it’s a Shooting Star, it’s bearish in nature. And maybe just reduce the size down a little bit. We could put that in here. You can identify that particular chart, we’ll have a look at chart number two. We put another label onto that. This is a Bearish Spinning Top, if you can see that chart in there now. What we can do is we can slide this, sorry, I just move the chart ever so slightly. So there we go. So that can be charting pattern number two, and we can look at Candlestick 3 there and we can place that in there. And we can look and assess the characteristics of that particular candlestick, and it’s actually, what we see, there’s a couple of sort of bearish candlesticks in there. You have a Bearish Engulfing and also a Gravestone. All of these are as you can see, let me just move this across. Just these two candlesticks in here, Bearish Engulfing, I’ll just bring it down the bottom there you can see it. Candlestick 1 for us or Candlestick 3 is the Bearish Engulfing followed by the Gravestone Doji candlestick or it’s very, very close to it.

All of these three different candlestick formations intimate price movement to the downside. Now as you can see, we do get smaller moves before we get the actual bigger move in this market lower. You get your again, another Bearish Engulfing, and you’re just likely to get prices moving to the downside. Now we’ll discuss rich risk management very, very shortly.

But that’s just their an overview of different tools that can be used to just assist you with in this process what we can also use are what called genuine levels of support resistance. We can identify the highs, we can see the triple top, we can also now identify these lows and see the rejections here. Now we can begin to formulate a bit of a trade plan and identify that this is actually a Head & Shoulders, a bit of price action with some significant bearish candlestick formations. And what it just extends is to the potential trade idea for this market to move lower. Knowing what direction the market moves in is very important for technical traders and that’s some of these technical tools that can be used. There’s still there’s also arrows to the upside or arrows to the downside. You can post those accordingly if you’re identifying you know a nice confirmed break to the upside, you can place arrows into your charts. And this is obviously all on a MetaTrader 4 platform. You can you can identify little breakouts to the upside, you can place arrows. And do use these when you are starting out to just give you some you know awareness and understanding, and certainly you can retain some of these features as well so when you log back into your trading platform you can access all of that information accordingly.

Okay, so continuing with the presentation then, that will lead us nicely into our understanding or impact on risk management. A comprehensive understanding of Candlestick Formations can really assist with your approach to risk. It can help you to clearly identify a price point in the market where you will not want to commit any more capital if price moves against you. That should be just a general basic overview in terms of a trader’s approach. You know, we’re advocates of trading with stop losses and being aware of the risks involved in trade and financial markets at all times.

So again, let’s take a look at an example on a live trading platform. I’ll bring this back upstairs and back up on screen. I just want to draw your attention to this Bearish Spinning Top up here. What I’ll do is I’ll zoom in a little bit more for you. We’re just going to look at this particular, I’m going to just delete this one, until, and I shall also delete this one here. I just want you to draw your attention to this candlestick in here. What we’re actually seeing is in fact, this is actually a Shooting Star, this was your Bearish Spinning Top. I’ll just edit that briefly. This is our Shooting Star just in here. This is the candlestick that we’re interested in. When we trade these financial markets what you want to do is obviously be able to assess your approach to risk. What we could very, very easily do is identify the highs and the lows of this particular market, and identify the high of the 1.2092, and I’m just looking at the data window in the bottom left hand corner and looking at the high price of this market. If you know that this if we’re in an uptrend and we’re identifying a shooting star which is effectively what we’ve what we’ve identified, you need to see the uptrend, and we can see it consistently. We’re absolutely fine with the fact that this market is moving to the upside. This can become a significantly bearish bit of price action when we see a Shooting Star in an uptrend. For us as traders, if we’re trading this independently and we can certainly identify the lower of this market followed by the high, it would be a bit of a straight forward situation for you as a trader to basically place your stop-loss above the high of this market, with the expectation being a Shooting Star which has a bearish connotation to look to send this market lower to the downside. And as you can see, markets don’t move in a linear fashion so you get the inevitable pullback.

A trade like this which is quite simple to see and to identify can become very, very bearish very quickly. Therein lies your potential to see significant risk reward, positive risk rewards, on a trade like this. You could be looking at four or five to one on a positive risk reward nature to the downside. This is how sort of our understanding of Japanese candlesticks can actually assist you with regards to being precise and accurate, with regards to your risk management, and calculate that risk accordingly in line with your Japanese candlesticks, and look to mitigate risk as quickly as possible. To just come back to this, if we get a bit of a reversal and we get prices moving higher, then this is not a market that you would look to be selling. You can you continue you can make sure you draw a line in the sand, work with the highs or just above the highs, and if you get a reversal then this is a market that you no longer want to be selling. However, if you stack the odds in your favour and you can conduct some fairly basic support resistance and some other technical analysis to this market, you could identify a fantastic opportunity to take this market to the downside. Okay, so that’s just the impact that Japanese candlesticks can have on risk and our ability to protect our own capital at all times.

Okay so now we are just moving on to the Practical Application, and we have been looking at practical live charts on over an extended period. Let’s now put you to the test as a trader. Shortly I shall reveal a live price chart and will then give you approximately 60 seconds to see if you can identify as many major candlestick formations as possible within that 60 seconds. It is not necessarily necessary for you to know the name of the candlestick formations. But we would be interested to see if you can, it’s a useful skill for you to develop to be able to identify its locations and the potential price moves thereafter. We will put you to the test and afterwards we will review the main candlestick formations and we will see how many you get right. We wish you the best of luck. To just give you a tip, what we’ve done is, what you can look at when I show you this chart, you could look for swing highs and swing lows which are significant areas for us as technical traders to look at and to be able to identify and see what’s going on. Just so that you know, we’ve identified four major bullish and four major bearish candlestick patterns in this chart. What I’d like to do is to put this chart up on screen and just give you 60 seconds to see if you can identify as many as you possibly can. There’s eight in total. There is many more on this chart, but and we’re looking for the more significant or the more major candlestick formations on this chart.

I’ll put this chart up now. Your 60 seconds can begin. In the meantime, there is actually four Bearish Candlestick Formations and as I’ve alluded to four Bullish Candlestick Formations on this chart. And to just give you a tip you know do look for the swing highs and swing lows and see if you can identify the specific candlesticks within that. I’m just going to give you a few more seconds to see if you can identify them. And as we’ve alluded to, just identifying the locations is often of crucial importance. The name of the actual Japanese candlesticks is actually less important. But just see if you can identify the potential for price action to perform based on what is for many of you your first introduction perhaps to technical analysis and your understanding of Japanese candlestick formations. I’ll give you just a few more seconds to just see if you can identify any more.

We’ve identified eight major levels on this chart. Hopefully you’ve had an opportunity to at least identify a few of them. And these are areas on a chart that would allow us to formulate a particular, perhaps biased to a particular, market and of course it can then give you as a trader some potential opportunities to make some consistent returns. Let’s start with and we’ll look at some Bearish Candlestick Formations to begin with. This is the first one, and if you’ve guessed it correctly then very, very well done. This is a Shooting Star. As you can see, we’re getting that price action pushing higher, we get our Shooting Star and we get a little bit of a pullback in this market. That’s the first one. The second one is this this area up here. This happens to be an Evening Star. What we’re doing is we get a nice bullish candlestick, we’re getting a gap to the upside, and we’re getting a little bit of a rejection actually in price action, and we’re getting some price action squeezing lower in this particular market. That’s our second Bearish Candlestick Formation.

Moving on we shall share with you our third, and there is a few more that which exist. You know you could argue if you identify this Doji Candlestick up here, that could constitute an opportunity to sell this market. But, we’d like to focus on a little more bigger moves and swing moves as well in a market like this to just formulate an approach or a directional bias to this market and this is a Bearish Kicker. As you can see, we’re in a bull trend. This market in the previous bit of price action is pushing higher, we have sort of a large Spinning Top here, but with a bullish biasness. And we are seeing the market close at this price up here and you can see it open considerably lower. This is what’s called a Bearish Kicker and when you see that, you’re very likely to get continuation to the downside in a market like this. Just one more sort of major bit of price action, and I do agree there is a few others, you could have a little bit of a bearish engulfing going on here which would have given you a fantastic opportunity to take this market lower. But in this bit of price action here, and we’re talking about a bit of a swing high, this is referred to as a Doji Candlestick and a bit of a bullish a slightly bullish Spinning Top. But for all intents and purposes, all that does for us as traders is create a little bit of indecision. We’ve got quite a lot of bearish price action pushing prices lower. You’d be more likely to look for opportunities to sell beneath this low point and you might be able to capture an interesting trade to the downside.

Okay, very well done. If you’re able to get some of those correct, what we will do now is to just review a few Bullish Candlestick Formations. The first one is this one currently up on screen, and I’m sure you’ve probably guessed it, what we get is a clear-cut Doji Candlestick. The reason why that’s a Neutral Candlestick is that it creates a bit of indecision in our mind, and what happens next is all very, very important. Prices are pushing lower. We’ve created a low and the next bit of price action is pushing higher. It could give you an opportunity to look to buy above the daily high and you would have got a profitable trade in this instance. Now you don’t have to be profitable with all of these trades you know. Some of them are not profitable. We can clearly see there’s another major, and again, there’s other bits of price action in here, like your Bullish Engulfing, which is very, very bullish. There’s lots of additional levels. But what we get clearly here in a swing low is a Hammer. That just simply means that prices have opened, they’ve squeezed lower, as you would expect it looking at the price action which has come before it. But then reversed, and has closed very, very close to its open price. And again that extends itself to being quite bullish, and as you can see you do get a little bit of a bullish move and before we get the bearish kicker and prices actually start reversing to the downside.

Hopefully all of this information can start to come together. This is why not necessarily it’s not always possible for you to make consistent returns on each and every trade. You know, we can see a Bullish Engulfing in here at this level where the prices do push higher ever so briefly before they start rolling over to the downside. Now, we’re also seeing a Bullish Engulfing at these lows. You can do some additional technical analysis at these lows that suggest that there is potentially a Triple Top. you put this together with your charting patterns and your understanding of Japanese candlesticks and you can see that yes, this has the characteristics of a Bullish Engulfing which could give us a nice opportunity to start pushing prices higher off this what is effectively, a Triple Bottom, if you know your charting patterns.

That’s just an overview, just a bit of a session, on just practical application about what we’ve covered over the course of this webinar. To just give you a sort of a brief overview in terms of what we’ve covered – we’ve looked at different forms of displays of price action, we’ve given you an introduction to Japanese candlesticks, we looked at the history of those Japanese candlesticks, we looked at the anatomy all the various different types of candlestick formations, whether they’re bullish, bearish, or neutral. We also sort of built-in the link between candlestick formations and also broader charting patterns. We looked at a few sort of basic tools that you can apply to a MetaTrader 4 platform which can help you and assist you with decision making. We’ve looked at the impact that it can have on risk management in your approach to risk. And we just had a practical application session just then.

So that brings us to the end of this course. We do hope you’ve enjoyed it. We thank you very much for joining us and we do hope to see you next time. From everyone here, bye for now.

 

 

Categories
Forex Educational Library

Trading Is An Adult Game (II): Mysterious & Engaging

Introduction

“If you wish to know the road, inquire of those who have traveled it” – old Japanese saying

(Quote from Steve Nison’s first book on Candlesticks)

On the first part of this series, we introduced technical analysis and the basics of charting. In this section, we’ll study candlestick patterns and look at ways to profit from them.

Reversal patterns

One of the most determinant skills a professional trader should have has to do with the ability to identify trend reversals as quickly and accurately as possible. In fact, reversal patterns do provide for the profitable trading setups by most candlestick masters.

Although reversal patterns do not always result in deep trend corrections, or in clear changes in market sentiment, they usually become a warning that a given trend is running out of steam (due to several reasons). Thus we as traders should start considering to either close our existing positions, to deleverage them or to tighten up risk (i.e. stop loss). Perhaps the most appreciated feature of reversal patterns is that they spot price areas for efficient entries, i.e., with an optimised risk-reward ration. However, we should not lose insight by forgetting the most inherent probabilistic nature of trading; put in differently, reversal patterns do increase our chances of determining successful entries, but we must add other factors to the equation such as risk-reward ratio, market sentiment, seasonality adjustments, etc.  Due to their relevance in nowadays trading literature, we shall carefully analyze trend reversal patterns.

We must be cautious to take positions against a prevailing trend if there is one. A rapid train isn’t going to reverse its direction easily. So, before strong trending markets, we should take only those signals matching the trend. Of course, on markets moving within a channel a pattern near the top or bottom of the channel is an ideal place for exit and reverse our position, provided the channel is broad enough to have a proper reward for our risk.

Before engaging in the study of the candlestick reversal patterns, let’s carry out a short discussion about a couple of indicators which may be used as confirmation of the main pattern.


Handy confirming indicators for its use together with candlestick patterns

I’ll be back… and back…and back…

Candlestick patterns are visually simple but sometimes variations of them appear in a lot of places, and not all of them should be taken into account as entry place. The accuracy of the candlestick patterns is highly enhanced when a confirmation signal is used with it. So in this section, we’ll present a couple of Indicators that may be useful as a companion because of its ability to show overbought or oversold places.

Handy confirming indicators

Stochastic Oscillator:

Two math for dummies, at $16.99 each: That’ll be $50.

The Stochastics Oscillator, developed by George Lane in 1950, came from the observation that closing prices tend to appear near the high of the range during uptrends and near the low of the range in downtrends.

This oscillator measures where the close is relative to the range of prices over a period of time. The %K line comes from a simple formula, which makes sure the signal is always between zero and 100:

There is a %D line, which is called slow stochastic and is computed by applying a three-day moving average to the %K line.

The usual way to be used when combined with a candlestick pattern is by taking action at %D and %K crossovers when this happens at an extreme.

Stochastic Oscillator:

Williams %R

Too much gear for this to be normal! Fuck that; we’re multitasking! (a Robin Williams liberal translation)

Williams Percent R is a momentum indicator developed by Larry Williams, which is very similar to the Stochastic indicator, but in this case, it shows the level of the Close in relation to the highest high of the period, instead of the lowest low, and it doesn’t depict a smoothed %D line.Williams %R

Therefore, this oscillator moves from -100 to 0. Values below -80 are oversold levels while from -20 to 0 are overbought.

Some charting packages shift these values to positive 0 to 100 by adding 100 to the formula. In this case, oversold levels are between 0 and 20, and overbought condition happens from 80 to 100.

%R is noisier than Stochastic %D, but with less lag, so together with the confirming candle pattern,  it allows for a better reward to risk ratio and tends to show more trade opportunities than Stochastic does.

 

We observe the excellent accuracy in sync of candlestick top and bottom patterns with the overbought and oversold levels pictured by the %R; and, also, the high reward to risk ratios that might have been achieved. Just one of the patterns (the piercing pattern, fourth from left to right) doesn’t present a good opportunity (therefore we won’t take the trade).

This type of good synch happens in horizontal channels mostly. When the trend is strong,  reliable signals only appear on pullbacks of the main trend.

Finally, the right chart is the continuation of the last signal from the left one. On the left, we had a good hammer, followed by a white candle, with %R in an oversold condition and rising. The left image shows the fate of this imaginary trade, which closes, rightly at the previous high, for a reward/risk of about Two. Then, another entry might have been taken reversing 100% of the last move with yet another 2:1 Reward to risk ratio.

That concludes our small digression about oscillators. The rest of the article will deal with Candlestick signals together with %R as my choice for companion oscillator.


Major candlestick signals

Japanese candlestick charts increase the level of information for the visually gifted trader. Each candle, in combination with its neighboring ones, reflects the psychological shifts in the investor’s sentiment.

  • Umbrella lines; hammer and Hanging man
  • The Doji Star
  • Engulfing patterns
  • Piercing patterns
  • Dark Cloud
  • Harami
  • Stars: Morning and Evening Stars
  • Kicker signal
  • Shooting star

Umbrella Lines

Give it to me, she yelled, I’m so fucking wet! …!

Umbrella lines are candles that show very long lower shadows and small bodies near the top of the trading range. This kind of candles is very interesting as it may be bullish or bearish, depending on price location. If it appears during a downtrend, it’s indicative of the end of it. In such places, the umbrella is tagged as a hammer. If it shows after a rally is called a hanging man.

Umbrella Lines

There are three differences between a hammer and a hanging man.

  • Trend: Hammers come after a downfall. A hanging man after a run-up.
  • Magnitude of the move: Hammers are valid even after a small drop. For a hanging man, the move should last longer.
  • Confirmation: A hanging man should be validated, while a hammer not.

A note to pairs and Forex Traders: Trading pairs makes umbrella candles kind of symmetrical. The stock asymmetry is tamed. A bull EUR/USD is a bear USD/EUR, so this confirmation stuff does not apply. We just need to realize that this kind signals work better when it goes with the prevailing trend, and need confirmation on the opposite direction.

Besides these patterns, we should always pay attention to the shadows of the candles. Shadows show the result of the fight between bulls and bears: If we see several consecutive candles with long upper shadows, although the trend is still up, those shadows are a sign that bears are starting to win.

Besides these patterns, we should always pay attention to the shadows of the candles. Shadows show the result of the fight between bulls and bears: If we see several consecutive candles with long upper shadows, although the trend is still up, those shadows are a sign that bears are starting to win.

On the other side, if there’s a downtrend, but long lower shadows with relatively small bodies start appearing, the continuation of the downtrend is under suspicion.

who is in command - forex academyUsually, by just paying attention to where the most longer shadows are drawn, we get the information of who’s in command, although not always this translates into a trend change, it just adds volatility. If we follow, as if it were our polar star, the proper reward to risk ratio and use the oversold/overbought indications set by %R, or Stochastics. we may survive those siren chants…

Hammer:

Honey, I’d really like to nail you…

An umbrella-like formation that’s present at support levels, signaling the end of a downward leg.

Pattern sentiment:

After a long time in a downtrend, the last bulls give up and sell. The latest bears take the byte and price go down on a climax of selling pressure; but then, there’s almost no one who hasn’t sold. Therefore bulls are the majority and prices start to climb back to the opening level. It may happen that short positions are being closed by traders realizing they were wrong, adding steam to the bull side. The longer the shadow, the weaker the position for the short side.

Sometimes, two or three consecutive hammers are drawing a double or triple bottom. Those are excellent signals of a trend change.

hammer - pattern sentiment

Criteria for trading hammers:

  1. The reward to risk must be higher than 2
  2. %R shows an oversold condition
  3. The lower shadow must be at least twice as long as its body
  4. The real body should be at the top of the range of the candle,  The color isn’t important, although a white body is more bullish.
  5. Almost no upper shadow.
  6. Large volume on the hammer bar.
  7. The entry on the next candle should be above the high of the hammer.
  8. A gap up is an enhancement, but not so much that spoils the reward to risk ratio below two.

Hanging Man:

Darling, suddenly, I feel quite vulnerable…

A hanging man has the same look as a hammer, but placed at the (hopefully) top of an ascending trend.

Criteria for trading Hanging Man:

  1. The reward be higher than 2x the risk
  2. % R is showing an overbought condition
  3. The lower shadow must be at least twice as long as its body
  4. The real body should be at the top of the range of the candle. The color isn’t important, although a black body is more bearish
  5. Almost no upper shadow.
  6. Large volume on the hammer bar.
  7. The entry point must be below the hanging man’s low.
  8. A gap up on that day and then a gap down is a strong signal
  9. Alternatively, a confirmation with a strong down day, or gap down, that goes below the hanging man’s low.
  10. Alternatively, wait for a failed test of the highs, forming a double top

Hanging Man

Hanging Man Pattern sentiment:

After a long uptrend, that day the price opens higher, but the bulls are hesitating and some traders take profits pushing on the bear side, so the price declines below the opening level. At the end of the session, the buyers start to move the price up again, to the opening level, or even higher.

This seems to demonstrate that the bulls are still in control, but it also shows that traders start taking profits, and even, short sellers are entering with more than reasonable reward to risk scenarios.

When the next candle moves below the previous low, bulls start to unload their positions at sell stops, adding fire to the downward pressure.

The Doji Star     

Stars can’t shine without darkness…
This pattern shows when the open and the close prices are the same, forming a horizontal line. That implies that bulls and bears are at an impasse. It’s an important alert when a trend has travelled
long.The Doji Star     

Perfect dojis hardly happen, and on intraday time frames, much less. Most of the cases are tiny hammers or small bodied candles, but when it happens, we should pay attention, and close a position at the violation of the low (or the high when shorts) of the doji candle.

Two special kinds of dojis justify being mentioned:

Gravestone Doji (Tohba)

The Gravestone is formed when open and close prices are the at low of the day. According to Stephen Bigalow, the Japanese analogy “it represents those who have died in the battle. The victories of the day are lost by the end of the day.”

It works better, according to sources, showing bottom reversals than tops. But it’s a significant indecision, with plenty psychological weight.

Gravestone Doji (Tohba)

Fig 8: Gravestone Doji

Dragonfly Doji (Tonbo)

Dragonfly dojis occur when the opening and closing prices happen, both, at the high of the day, and are hammers and hanging man variants.

Dragonfly Doji (Tonbo)

Fig 9: Dragonfly Doji

Engulfing patterns (Tsutsumi)

The issue isn’t penetration, but engulfing…(Amy Schumer)

The engulfing pattern is a major reversal pattern. Seen in a 2x timeframe
it may be pictured as an inverted hammer or doji.

The bullish engulfing candle opens lower than previous day’s close and closes higher than the previous open, engulfing the whole body of the previous one.bullish engulfing

The bearish engulfing is a mirror image of the first one.bearish engulfing

Fig 10a and 10.b: Engulfing patterns

Note: On intraday charts, the engulfing candle hardly opens lower/higher than the previous candle, but it must close higher/lower, engulfing the entire body of the previous candle.

Criteria to trade an engulfing formation:

  1. A reward two times the risk has been established
  2. The body of the bullish candle closes higher/lower than the open of the previous bear/bull candle.
  3. Prices have been in a trend and %R shows they are in oversold/overbought territory signal.
  4. The body of the engulfing candle is of opposite color, except when engulfing small bodied candles.
  5. A large body engulfing small bodies is a positive sign
  6. Large volume on the engulfing candle
  7. The body engulfs more than one body.
  8. An opening gap after the pattern (but not much of that 2:1 Reward is taken)

Pattern sentiment

After a decline of some proportion the price opens at or lower than the previous candle, but after testing or crossing the lows of the previous candle and taking all stops, the bulls take command and move the price up, and above last day’s open. That forces the bears to close positions, adding more fuel to the bull move. Now, the change in sentiment shifts and traders seek to test the highs of the previous bearish move.

Pattern sentiment

Piercing Patterns

Piercing is everything about holes… so you’re telling me you find them attractive!
Piercing pattern (bullish) and Dark cloud cover(bearish) are specular patterns between them, so for pairs trading, they are the same pattern, just on a reversed pair chart.

The piercing pattern is a two candle pattern. The first one is a bearish candle after a downtrend has traveled for some time. The second candle starts below the low of its neighbor, and it closes above the middle of it near or at the high of the range.Piercing Patterns

The condition that the open should be below the low of the previous bear candle hardly happens on intraday charts, therefore, with those, it’s enough that it starts at the previous open, closing above the middle of it, with a strong close.

Piercing Pattern sentiment:

Criteria to trade a Piercing Pattern

  1. A reward 2 times the risk has been evaluated
  2. %R shows oversold levels and moves up at the close of the white candle
  3. There had been a downward movement with a final long black candle
  4. the actual candle is white, crossed the middle of the black candle and closes at its highs
  5. A gap down on the white candle adds power to the signal
  6. The higher the close, the better
  7. A large volume is an enhancement.

Piercing Pattern sentiment:

After a continuous decline, the bearish sentiment is extreme. The last long candle shows a lot of selling activity. The next candle gaps down, continuing down for a while. Finally, everyone willing to sell has already sold and what’s left is traders thinking that this level might be a good price to buy. Short sellers start to close their positions, as well, so the price starts to go up. The end of the bar is strong, retracing half or more of the previous candle and closing at its highs. When the next candle continues the up-trend, late short positions losing money, start being closed and the move accelerates, therefore the downward move is questioned.

Criteria to trade a Dark Cloud Cover

Since Dark Cloud Cover is the specular image of a Piecing Pattern, just translate the piecing pattern criteria to its specular condition.

Harami

I’m never having babies. I hear they take nine months to download…(Liza Sabater 🇵🇷👸🏾 On Twitter: Retrieved from https://twitter.com/blogdiva/status/2753105115)

Steve Nison describes a Harami as a small real body that is contained within what the Japanese call “an unusual long black or white body”.

Harami is a Japanese word for “pregnant woman”. The large body, being the mother of the small one, the baby. It’s a sign of market lacking steam. As we see on the fig 14, haramis happen quite often during trends. Candles of profit taking, and testing. Short term trading has made this pattern almost unworthy.

Therefore a Harami, by itself, isn’t reason enough to take an opposite position to the main trend. More confirming evidence is required, such as a third candle taking the lows of the mother candle, depicting a kind of morning or evening star pattern.Harami

Morning/evening Stars.

I’m not bad, I just have a lousy publicist (Lucifer)

The Morning star is a bottom reversal signal. Looking at it in a longer time frame may be seen as a hammer, or, even, a Dragonfly Doji.  It’s composed of three elements. After a down leg, the last candle is a long, black, candle. Next candle is a gap down, and a small body is formed. The last day, there’s a gap up and a long white candle that closes near the open of the first long and black candle.Morning/evening Stars.

Note:  Intraday charts do not show gaps. Therefore, the second body may be the baby of a Harami or a small black body below the first black candle. It also may appear two or three small bodies and then the white candle. That is an indication that a bottom may have been reached. This rounded bottom is a nice place to enter after the long white candle crosses above their highs.

Criteria to trade a Morning Star.

  1. Morning Star patternThere had been a downtrend easily visible on the chart
  2. The %R is in oversold condition
  3. After a bottoming black candle, and one or more small bodies with lower tails, the last white candle closes near the opening of the black candle and in its top range
  4. A reward 2X the risk is spotted from the entry point to the last major top or resistance
  5. If we see higher volume than usual in the black and white candles, the better.
  6. If there is a long down tail in the small body the signal is stronger.

Market sentiment in a Morning Star pattern:

A strong correction has happened and long positions acquired during the down move started to think that they went wrong and close their positions. A selloff begins forming a long black body. Next day (or candle) there is a gap, but at those levels, due to supports being hit and that most of the selling ended, the price doesn’t move much. The third candle starts moving up, pushed by the bulls, that realize there is a huge reward to risk guaranteed by the previous small body. This up move forces bear traders to close their short positions, adding strength to the upward momentum.Morning Star trade

The Evening Star is an inverted Morning Star, so for forex, pairs traders, it’s exactly the same pattern on an inverted pair. For example, an evening star on the EUR/USD is a Morning Star on the fictitious USD/EUR.

Criteria to trade an Evening Star.

  1. There had been an uptrend easily visible on the chart
  2. The %R is in overbought condition
  3. After a long white candle and one or more small bodies with higher tails, the last black candle closes near the opening of the white candle and in its bottom range
  4. A reward 2X the risk is spotted from the entry point to the last major bottom or support
  5. If we see higher volume than usual in the black and white candles, the better.
  6. If there is a long upper tail in the small body the signal is stronger.

Market sentiment in an Evening Star pattern

The Evening Star is a signal that warns the top of an upward move has been reached. There is a first long white candle, showing buying exuberance, then a happy gap up that fails to go further; and, finally, a painful gap down and a long dark candle.  You may imagine the feelings of the trader who bought at that island body on the top watching a gap down and a large down-candle. That’s exactly the feeling the trader had when he traded short at the small body of the Morning Star and watched the gap up and a long white candle.  Thus, after that gap down, bulls give up their hope for the continuation of the trend and close their positions at a loss and increasing the selling pressure.

two profitable evening star trades

Kicker Signal (Keri Ashi)

I don’t need a kicker to win my super bowls… O God, please don’t kick me in the nuts!

Keri Ashi is a powerful signal, although it almost never appears on intraday charts, and when it does, its cause is a surprise news creating huge instantaneous volatility, whose Reward to risk ratio is too poor to trade at once. Likewise, due to the 24/7 nature of the currency trading, almost never shows on daily charts, as well; although it may appear in the futures market of that pair.Kicker Signal (Keri Ashi)

A bullish Kicker signal is made of a long black candle and a long white candle whose open is above the body of the previous black one.  The bearish kicker is its reverse: A long white candle followed by a long black candle that opens below the open of the white one. It’s a radical shift in beliefs of traders about the value if one of the members of the pair that triggers an instantaneous thrust in price.

Besides its rarity in currencies trading, the reward to risk is quite poor, and almost always is a consequence from a news event, so its value is linked to the event’s value as trend changer. Therefore, Kickers are worth only to recognize a major trend shift.

Shooting stars (Nagare Boshi)

Hey, Arthur, check it out: A shooting star. That’s a sure sign of good luck, my friend! (Anonymous Dinosaur)

We already talked about the value of the shadows, wicks or tails to assess who’s controlling the candle: the bulls or the bears. Shooting stars are small bodied-candles with long Shooting stars (Nagare Boshi)upper tails.  The Japanese named that way by its similitude to a shooting star. It shows that the bears have controlled the candle. It may be produced by profit taking or fresh short position, but the bullish sentiment weakened. It’s body color isn’t important. As a reversal signal, it must come after a rally. At tops, it’s usually part of the Evening Star formation, so a shooting star is a very good warning signal to close our position if the next candle travels below the low of the star’s low.

When a shooting star happens at a bottom is called Inverted Hammer, and shows evidence that the bulls started to get in, although, finally bears won. Thus, the downtrend is in question. Under this circumstance, our stops should be tightened or profit must be taken.

A positive candle, after it will picture a kind of morning star signal and may be traded similarly. On fig 20 there’s one example of an inverted hammer at the bottom of the downward leg.


Summary:

Candlestick charts show information that’s hidden in bar charts. Candlestick patterns are visually more evident than in bar style, but, mainly, the information shown is very similar.

The main characteristic of a good reversal signal is that in one, two, three -or more- candles price undoes the road taken by a long initial candle of opposite color at the end of a trend of a certain length. Thus, a candlestick pattern looks similar to a small bodied-candle with long shadow or tail, if observed on a longer time frame.

A long tail, then, is always worth paying attention to. It shows who won the battle in that particular candle and is an early warning of a reversal, especially near supports or resistance levels.

The use of Stochastics or Williams %R as companion indicator enhances the value of the pattern information and its probability as a winning trade.

As a trading philosophy, we should always weight the potential reward for the risk we take. Therefore, we should qualify the pattern by the reward it shows in comparison to its risk.


 

References:

  • Profitable Candlestick Trading, Stephen Bigalow
  • Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, Steve Nison

All Images were taken using Multicharts 11 trading platform, and MetaTrader 4

 ©Forex.Academy
Categories
Forex Educational Library

Profitable Trading Chapter III: Chart patterns

Introduction

In the early days of technical analysis, charts were drawn by hand. Personal computers came much later. Traders and investors patiently drew their charts one day, hour or minute at a time. Indicators such as moving averages were calculated by hand. Sophisticated indicators- MACD, Bollinger bands- were mostly absent.

Under those conditions, traders focused on chart patterns for clues about market turns or continuations. Thus, patterns such as head and shoulders, triple bottoms, triangles, flags and so forth started being part of traders’ arsenal.

Actually, computer-oriented traders pay more attention to sophisticated indicators than to patterns, but there are many successful traders that sing praises to the good old method of pattern trading, because, they say, it’s faster than those lag-ish indicators.

One bar patterns

The easiest to recognize, of all chart patterns, is one bar patterns: Gaps, one bar reversal, spikes, inside and outside days.

Gaps and spikes

Gaps don’t occur in the 24/7 currency markets. Or do they? That depends on how we define a gap.

Gaps and spikes

And what is a gap: Technically it is a hole in the prices due to a price change that happened between the previous close and the open.

In order to make it extensive for its use in the currency markets lets define gap as a price shock. An extensive bar or a spike such as one that is caused by a news event.

Fig 1.a shows a gap on a daily chart of a stock. Fig 1.b shows the same gap on a weekly chart as an elongated candle. It would be an elongated candle on its daily chart, too, if its open were drawn near the previous close.

The important factor is the traders’ sentiment about the price shock, not the way we draw it on a chart.

Using our brand new definition, a gap in the currency markets is a spike, a huge candle, produced by a news event that might have been a hole if the market had been closed during that event.spike in the usd/gbp hourly chart

This pattern is the product of a large volatility jump, and it’s usually a local top or bottom. Thus, it’s often followed by a pullback, sometimes very large, as we may see in fig 1.d.

The majority of spikes show the direction of a future leg. It may be the same as the current leg or opposite to it. In any case, the gap is an indication of trend direction, at least mid-term. Although, the intelligent trader knew he must wait for a low-risk entry on a breakout or breakdown of the pullback leg.

Unexperienced traders must avoid trading events such as these. Money is made with method and discipline, not by greedy entries.spike with pullback fill

Reversal bars

 

Reversal barsA bullish reversal bar is a bar with its low making a new low but closing higher.  A bearish reversal is a bar where there’s a new high but with the closing lower. Those reversals aren’t significant unless in context with highly oversold or overbought situations.

 

A bullish key reversal is a bar with new lows and then making a high higher high, closing, also, higher than the previous bar’s
close. The bearish key reversal is its specular pattern.

bearish key reversal


Important reversal patterns

From lower to higher or vice versa.

The most important pattern for determining a trend reversal has already been dealt with. Since a trend reversal -for instance from bear to bull trend- is going from lower highs and lows to higher highs and lows, this is a pattern, and it’s one of most important for the detection of a trend change.

From lower to higher or vice versa

It’s possible that we may detect a failure to new lows, but we don’t start getting higher highs and lows. Thus, we have shifted from a downtrend to a sideways market, that may resume a downtrend or break up. We still don’t know. But the bear trend has stopped.

Head-and-Shoulders

It’s a top formation. The inverted Head-and-Shoulders is its specular counterpart as a bottom formation.

Head-and-Shoulders

Stages of a Head-and-Shoulders pattern

  1. A strong rally followed by a minor pullback forms the left shoulder.
  2. Another high-volume rally reaches a higher high and, then, pulls back to or near to the previous low
  3. A third rally that doesn’t make new highs with a downward leg that push prices below those two previous lows, to D
  4. Prices are below the neckline that acts as resistance. Prices go up a bit, touching the neckline but failing to hold and descending to fresh lows.

Breakout: The confirmatory stage is D, with prices below the neckline failing to go back up.

The importance of the volume:

The majority of the volume appears during A and B legs, the highest occurring during B rally, and greatly diminished volume during the formation of the right shoulder.

Fig.4.b shows an inverted head-and-shoulders bottom, where the neckline isn’t horizontal, and a typical volume pattern of stronger trading before B and lightening after it.

The importance of the volume

Broadening bottoms

Appearance:  Drawing trend lines at tops and bottoms of the formation it gives the impression of the silhouette of an ancient turntable’s horn.

Broadening bottoms

Identification:

Price Trend: declining.

Shape: Price seems an oscillating pattern with increasing amplitude.

Trend lines: The two trend lines across minor tops and bottoms diverge from each other. The upper trend line must be ascending or horizontal. The bottom one should be pointing down.

Touches: According to Thomas N. Bukowski’s book on patterns, a broadening bottom needs at least two minor highs and two minor lows to validate the pattern.

Volume: Volume follows price. When the price falls so does volume, and when price moves up volume increases, as well.

How to trade it: When the channel is wide enough, buy near the lower trend line and sell on weakness or when it touches the higher trend line. Also buy a pullback after the breakout or breakdown, if it fails.

Broadening tops

Appearance:  Similar to a widening bottom.

Broadening tops

Identification:

Price Trend: Ascending.

Shape: Price seems an oscillating pattern with increasing amplitude.

Trend lines: The two trend lines across minor tops and bottoms diverge from each other. The upper trend line must be ascending. The bottom line should be pointing down or horizontal.

Touches: According to Thomas N. Bukowski’s book on patterns, a broadening top needs at least two minor highs and two minor lows to validate the pattern.

Volume: Volume follows price. When the price falls so does the volume, and when price moves up volume increases, as well.

How to trade it: This formation may show a trend change, but sometimes is just a trend continuation. When the channel is wide enough, sell near the higher trend line and buy when it touches the lower trend line. Also, buy the breakdown from the lower trend line.

Broadening ascending wedges

Appearance: similar to a broadening top, but the lower trend line is, also, ascending.

Broadening ascending wedges

Identification:

Price Trend: ascending.

Trend lines: The top line is steeper but the lower one is also trending up.

Touches: It needs at least three distinct touches (or close to it) on each of the lines.

Breakdown: In the majority of times there is a breakdown.

How to trade it: As in the case of the other broadening tops, sell near the higher trend line. Also, sell if it fails to make a new high. Sell the breakdown, as well.

Broadening descending wedges:

Appearance: similar to a broadening bottom, but the higher trend line is, also, descending.

Broadening descending wedges

Identification:

Price Trend: It usually acts as consolidation of an upward trend.

Trend lines: Both head down, but the bottom line is steeper.

Touches: It needs at least two distinct touches on each line.

Breakout: In the majority of times there is a breakout.

How to trade it: As in the case of the other broadening bottoms, buy near the lower trend line. Also, buy if it fails to make a new low. Buy the breakout, as well.

Double bottoms

A double bottom is the first confirmation that the trend has stopped making new lower lows and lower highs. After a new low is made, the following bars draw a small rally to the recent highs.

Then, the price experiences a pull-down from that resistance level, to test the recent lows: The test resolves to the upside, breaking the recent resistance up to fresh highs, starting an upward trend.

Double bottoms

Identification:

Price Trend: downward.

Bottom shape: Both bottoms are at the same level or close to it. The shadow of the second low may be below the first low, but it closes above it or the next candle does it.

Confirmation: The double bottom is confirmed by a breakout of the resistance level of the formation.

How to trade it: Buy the breakout.

Double tops

Double topsA double top is the specular image of a double bottom. Price was on an uptrend and made a new local top. Then it pulled back to a local support level, and, after, it rallied again but failed to break the recent top and fell down, breaking down that local support to make fresh lows.

Price trend: upward.

Top Shape: both highs are at the same level or close to it.

Confirmation: The double top is confirmed when the support level is broken down.

How to trade it: Sell the breakdown.

Triple Bottoms

Triple bottoms are a form of oscillation. Not only present themselves after a long downward trend, but it’s usually three or more bottoms in sideways channels, or in reactive legs during an uptrend.

They are more reliable as a continuation pattern, on a bull trend than as counter-trend signal in bear markets.

Triple Bottoms

Price trend: Preferably upward

Bottoms: Three bottoms at similar levels. It helps that the second and third bottoms didn’t touch the first one.

Confirmation: Price breaks up the confirmation line.

How to trade: Wait for a pullback to support (confirmation line) and buy the second breakout.

Triple tops:

A Triple top is good trend continuation signal on a bear trend, after a pullback rally.

Triple tops

Appearance: Three distinct highs well separated. The peaks present sharp spikes.

Tops: The price variation between peaks is minor.

Confirmation: Prices must go below the lowest low in the formation.

How to trade: The breakdown risk is too high. Wait for a pullback to trade.

Rounding bottoms

Rounding bottoms and saucers are synonyms. This pattern, that’s supposedly trend reversal is so plagued by “surprise” failures that we hardly may call them “bottoms” at all. More usually, these formations appear during uptrends as a pullback, after which the trend resumes.

Rounding bottoms

Bottom Shape: The bodies on the downtrend candle get smaller, and then a bottom is formed (no fresh lows). Then a breakout happens with a tiny rally that holds the breaking level. Forming higher lows. A potential pattern of higher highs and higher lows emerges.

Confirmation: The second breakout to new highs, confirms the new leg.

How to trade it: Buy the first or the second breakout, after the small pullback. The second one is safer.

Rounding tops:

Yet another false pattern. Thomas Bulkowski writes about this pattern: “When is a top not a top? When it is a rounding top and prices break out upward 53% of the time. I like to refer to this pattern not as a rounding top, but as a rounding turn (RdT).

Rounding tops

Appearance: After a rally lost its steam, price moves on a pullback that erases most of it.  The last local bottom holds. A rally move proceeds up again.

Confirmation: Prices break the resistance of a confirmation line drawn at the high of the rounded formation.

How to trade it: To me, it’s a reactive leg in an uptrend, thus, if a new leg is confirmed by breaking a trend line drawn on the highs of the pullback segment, then a buy order may be entered at a breakout of recent highs. Taking the breakout of the confirmation line is too risky because we still don’t know if it will repeat the previous pullback by forming a sideways channel. Therefore, it’s better to wait for another pullback past the breakout of the confirmation line. See Fig. 13 for clarification.

Continuation patterns

Flags

A typical continuation pattern. After an impulsive leg a pause in the opposite direction. It’s usually a nice entry point after an impulsive leg.

Flags - Forex Academy

Appearance: Flags are fast oscillating symmetrical patterns with a downward slope in bull trends and upward one in downtrends. A typical corrective leg.

Volume: Volume fades, receding with the trend.

Confirmation: Breakout, during uptrends, or breakdown on downtrends.

How to trade it: Enter the breakout, following the previous trend. Do not enter if it’s in opposite direction to the trend, such as, in fig.14, the 4th ascending flag.

Pennants

Pennants are a flag variation, but with its trend lines converging.

Pennants

The fact that the volatility fades on a pennant, makes it an excellent spot for good reward to risk trades.

Appearance: Flags are fast oscillating converging patterns. The slope usually is contrary to the main trend, but it may be horizontal or in the same direction to the main trend.

Volume: Volume fades, receding with the trend.

Confirmation: Breakout, during uptrends, or breakdown on downtrends.

How to trade it: Enter the breakout, following the previous trend.

Triangles and Wedges:

Triangles and Wedges are like flags and pennants. The difference is the undulations are more noticeable and wide, so they take longer to develop. The difference between triangles and Wedges is a bit arbitrary: Triangles have lower highs and higher lows. Wedges may not because their tilt is higher, upward or downward.

They are reactive waves that, usually, end with the burst of another impulsive wave in the same direction as the previous one. Anyhow beware: All reactive waves, including wedges, are fights between bulls and bears, so its ending is uncertain.

There are upward and downward wedges. The fact that it usually breaks out in the opposite direction of its own is its reactive nature that opposes the main trend.

Wedge - Forex Academy

Appearance: Undulations with fading strength. Its upper and lower trend lines converge

Volume: Volume fades, receding with time.

Confirmation: Breakout, during uptrends, or breakdown on downtrends.

How to trade it: Enter the breakout, following the previous trend.

This covers all important chart patterns and formations available.

The main common feature is an ending with a breakout. To trade them we must evaluate carefully the reward-to-risk situation and, if not satisfactory, wait for the end of the first impulse and enter at the end of a continuation pattern – usually a flag or pennant.

There are plenty of variations of these patterns, and, sometimes, they’re very hard to spot. But if we keep our trendlines touching the local tops or highs on downward legs, and at the local lows during uptrends, we’ll be able to spot trend breakouts, judge where we are, and if it’s a good risk to reward, take appropriate actions. See fig 19.

Profitable Trading Chapter III: Chart patterns

Next chapter, well be dealing with computerized indicators, such as MACD, RSI, Stochastics, Williams %R, On balance Volume, Parabolic SAR a so on.

 


References:

Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd edition, Thomas N. Bulkowski

Trading systems and Methods 5th edition, Perry Kaufman

 

 ©Forex.Academy