Tag: Gold

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 18 – Major Trade Setups – Risk Appetite Rises Amid Brexit Deal! 

On Friday, the U.S. dollar trades bearish after the U.S. dollar slid to a nearly eight-week low in the prior session, keeping gold prices underpinned. 

European Union leaders collectively supported

On Friday, the U.S. dollar trades bearish after the U.S. dollar slid to a nearly eight-week low in the prior session, keeping gold prices underpinned. 

European Union leaders collectively supported

On Friday, the U.S. dollar trades bearish after the U.S. dollar slid to a nearly eight-week low in the prior session, keeping gold prices underpinned. 

European Union leaders collectively supported a new Brexit agreement with Britain on Thursday. The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is facing a battle to ensure the U.K. parliament’s support for the deal if he is to get Britain outside of Europe on October 31.

The risk sentiment improved yesterday due to the announcement of the United Kingdom and the European Union that they looked the Brexit deal. Still, the Brexit deal concerns continued to increase because the markets are worrying about the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s probabilities of getting the approval for the Brexit deal by the U.K. parliament.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

XAU/USD– Daily Analysis

The safe-haven-metal prices dropped despite the weak China GDP data, and the drop came at the prices due to the markets were digesting headlines regarding Brexit and the US-China trade war.

U.S. Gold Futures for December delivery dropped 0.2% to $1,494.95 per ounce by 1:05 AM ET (05:05 GMT).

The risk sentiment improved yesterday due to the announcement of the United Kingdom and the European Union that they looked the Brexit deal. Still, the Brexit deal concerns continued to increase because the markets are worrying about the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s probabilities of getting the approval for the Brexit deal by the U.K. parliament.

Moreover, China’s 3rd-quarter GDP rose slower than expected. Chinese stocks dropped after the release of the data, but the safe-haven gold didn’t get any benefit from this.

Continuing trade tussle with the U.S. will keep under the eyes. Therefore, China said on Thursday that it believed to be in the last phase of the trade agreement with the United States. At the same time, China gave a warning that the United States has to cancel new tariffs for a full trade deal.

China’s Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng also said that we expect that both nations can continue to work together to more progress in discussions. As soon as possible, we will reach on a phased deal as well and make new progress with the help of canceling tariffs.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1462.89

S2 1476.9

S1 1484.38

Pivot Point 1490.91

R1 1498.39

R2 1504.92

R3 1518.93

XAU/USD– Trading Tips

Gold prices continue to trade in the same range of 1,496 – 1,488 as investors focus mostly stay on the Brexit deal and Sterling pairs. Technically, the precious metal gold has formed an ascending triangle on the 4-hour timeframe, which is extending substantial resistance at 1,495. Thus, consider staying bearish below 1,496 level to target 1,488 and 1,484. 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair found below the 100-day Moving Average of 1.1137, and the pair hit the high of 1.1140 on Thursday due to the headline that the United Kingdom and European Union officials teams (E.U.) have reached a Brexit departure deal.

The upward rally suddenly stopped near the 100-day Moving Average in the overnight session, possibly due to the concerns that the United Kingdom Parliament may reject the deal.

Looking forward, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will face a strongly divided parliament on Saturday, because all the opposition will try to delay the agreement in parliament and another election. Moreover, Boris Johnson Brexit deal already rejected once by the Northern Irish ally, the Democratic Unioost Party.

According to the entire situation, we can say that the chances of the United Kingdom parliament approving the Brexit deal by Boris Johnson are too low. The E.U. currency may remain below the 100-day Moving Average due to uncertainty surrounding the Brexit deal.

On the other hand, the equities could remain under pressure in the wake of sluggish China data; as of data, the final data released in the Asin session which was showed Chinas economy improved 6.0% from a year ago in the 3rd quarter, the weakest data sine 27.5 years.

The E.U. and Pound, both of the currencies, will take a buying trend if the Domcarative Unionist Party gives a softening statement about the Brexit deal on Saturday. In such a case, the EUR/USD currency pair could close above the 100-day Moving Average for the 1st time since July 18.


Daily Support and Resistance  

S3 1.0961

S2 1.1036

S1 1.1082

Pivot Point 1.1111

R1 1.1157

R2 1.1186

R3 1.1261

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has come out of the sideways range of 1.1020 – 1.1070. The pair is now holding above 1.1070 level, which is currently working as a support.

The bullish engulfing candle above 1.1100 level is suggesting the chances of further buying in the major currency pair. The RSI and MACD are indicating a buying trend, but the pair may show some correction until 1100 before showing a further bullish trend.

Consider staying bullish above 1.1100 level today to target 1.1160 on the upper side.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the bearish track, representing a 0.30% declines on the day, mainly due to the fears that Prime Minister Boris Johnson could fail to approve the new Brexit deal in the United Kingdom parliament on coming Saturday.

As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair currently trading around the 1.2850, having hit a high of 1.2990 on Thursday. By the way, it was the highest level since May 13.

Moreover, the GBP currency took a strong buying trend during the European trading hours due to the report that the United Kingdom and the European Union have reached a Brexit departure deal.

The GBP/USD rose to 5-months highs, but it was short-timed because the optimism decreased on the realization that the United Kingdom parliament could deny the deal.

In an amazing Saturday meeting, the first since 1982, the parliament will vote on approving the new Brexit deal.

Looking forward, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will face a strongly divided parliament on Saturday, because all the opposition will try to delay the agreement in parliament and another election. Moreover, Boris Johnson Brexit deal already rejected once by the Northern Irish ally, the Democratic Unioost Party.


Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1.2396

S2 1.2636

S1 1.2764

Pivot Point 1.2877

R1 1.3004

R2 1.3117

R3 1.3357

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is trading within a bullish channel, which is extending support around 1.2850 level. The GBP/USD has from inside up bar pattern on the 4-hour chart, which is suggesting a bullish trend in the Cable.

The immediate support prevails at 1.2800, and resistance is likely to stay at 1.2900 today. Consider staying bullish above 1.2800, where the violation of 1.2870 can also lead the GBP/USD towards 1.2910. 

All the best!  

 

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Forex Market

What Should You Know About Trading Metals?

Introduction
We have discussed metal commodities briefly in the previous article. In this article, let’s understand trading metals in detail. Trading precious metals were only possible by wealthy investors in

Introduction
We have discussed metal commodities briefly in the previous article. In this article, let’s understand trading metals in detail. Trading precious metals were only possible by wealthy investors in

Introduction

We have discussed metal commodities briefly in the previous article. In this article, let’s understand trading metals in detail. Trading precious metals were only possible by wealthy investors in earlier days. But now, every retail forex trader gets to trade these metals with the advent of CFD trading. Hence, a lot of investors hold metals in their portfolios by investing a significant chunk of their money in metals. Metals create a balanced portfolio as they are considered a hedge against inflation. Metals such as gold and silver can be treated as safe-haven bets since their scarcity provides support to their value.

Gold – The highly traded metal

Among all the metals, Gold is the most actively traded metal. This metal possesses intrinsic properties such as durability, malleability, and conductivity. These properties offered by gold account for its superiority. They also find their primary use in jewelry making. As with other commodities, forces of demand and supply determine prices of gold. The gold market is also influenced by risk parameters, market sentiment, and inflation trends. Investors turn to gold and invest heavily when there are signs of a global economic slowdown. The slowdown could be due to reasons like recession, political crisis, or government debt.

Because of these reasons, Gold is mostly traded by long term investors. They only look for signs of gold entering a bull or bear market. The trend can be determined with the help of equity indices. A strengthening economy means weaker demand for gold.

Silver

Silver is seen as the best metal trading option right after gold. It has its own merits. This metal is used in various industries, making it more sensitive to business conditions and trading activities. Hence, the prices of silver are more volatile than that of gold. So we can say that silver is ideal for short term traders.

Platinum

Platinum is also seen to gain value during times of economic and financial crisis. However, because of scarcity in the availability of platinum, the price is much higher compared to gold. Therefore it is less frequently traded. It still is a robust and safe-haven alternative, especially when the Gold is overbought in the market. The industrial use of Platinum is kind of similar to that of silver, making it price-sensitive to business conditions. In recent times, the demand for platinum in industrial usage is reduced by the increased use of catalytic converters.

You can trade metals with Forex brokers too

One of the important advantages of trading metals is that they give protection against inflation, which is not offered by any other financial instrument. Taking this into consideration, a lot of Forex brokers offer above mentioned precious metal trading against major currencies such as the US dollar, Japanese yen, Euro, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and British pound. You will also find metals such as Copper and Palladium on their platform. Some of the metal currency pairs include XAU/USD (Gold), XAG/USD (Silver) and XPT/USD (Platinum).

Conclusion

Even if it obvious, we must tell you that buying and selling precious metals do not mean the actual delivery of these commodities. We trade these metals over the counter (OTC). In this type of trading, there is high risk involved. So make sure you have a risk management plan in place, else there is a possibility of you losing all the money you have in your trading account. Some vital risk management tools include stop-loss and order cancellation. They will always protect the balance of your account.

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 17 – Major Trade Setups – Philly Fed Index In Focus!

The I.C.E. U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 98.31. Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest economic report, the Beige Book.

The British Pound resumed

The I.C.E. U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 98.31. Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest economic report, the Beige Book.

The British Pound resumed

The I.C.E. U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 98.31. Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest economic report, the Beige Book.

The British Pound resumed its rally amid growing Brexit deal optimism, surging 1.2% to $1.2760, the highest level since May 16. It was reported that the U.K. and European Union negotiators would present a draft Brexit deal to national delegations later today. On the other hand, official data showed that U.K.’s jobless rate rose to 3.9% in the three months to August (3.8% expected). September C.P.I. will be reported later today (+1.8% on-year expected).

The Euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1034. The Z.E.W. German Current Situation Index dropped to -25.3 in October (-23.6 expected, -19.9 in September), the lowest level since April 2010. USD/JPY climbed 0.4% to 108.81.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

XAU/USD– Daily Analysis

the safe-haven metal prices dropped despite the U.S.S. weak retail sales data and hinted the higher possibility of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

Data showed retail sales in the United States dropped by 0.3% during September, their highest decline since last November.

According to forecasting, investors are now expecting an 88.7% probability of a 25 basis-points rate cut at the Federal Reserve policy meeting at the end of the month.

Brexit progress still under the eyes. The report came from B.B.C. official that the United Kingdom and the European Union will not declare the deal on Brexit today. News from other sources said that the deal could still be announced at the end of this week.

Fresh U.S.-China tensions due to Hong Kong received some attention this week but failed to boost gold prices today.



Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1457.17

S2 1471.83

S1 1481.27

Pivot Point 1486.49

R1 1495.93

R2 1501.15

R3 1515.81

XAU/USD– Trading Tips

The precious metal gold hasn’t improved much in the past several days since it succeeded in holding under 1,497 handle. Neutral sentiment appears sturdy enough to hold gold within 1,492 – 1,477 range. 

Traders may retain selling trades under 1,494 area today. In the case of a bullish violation of 1,492, the market may witness gold flying towards 1,497 area.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair failed to cross the critical resistance level and still hold below the 1.1085/90 level, despite benefiting from the sluggish U.S. data and change in European Central Bank policy maker’s bias. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1077.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index took further disappointment, in terms of September month Retail sales, that sent the pair down to fresh 7-week low on Wednesday.

On the other hand, the policymakers of the European Union continue to struggling to declare a final Brexit deal with the United Kingdom and extended the discussions to Thursday before holding the 2-day European Union summit. The British policymakers didn’t get the support of the Democratic Unionist Party (D.U.P.) so far in the wake of the deal that could be agreed with the European Union.

Risk sentiment in the market is downbeat due to the difficulties between the United States and China trade deal and Brexit uncertainty with the stocks and bonds in Asia.

Whereas the Brexit is the leading cause for the pair movement and the market right now, moreover, the 2nd data from the United States and Federal reserve coming talks will likely entertaining traders.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0934

S2 1.0998

S1 1.1036

Pivot Point 1.1061

R1 1.11

R2 1.1124

R3 1.1188

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The EUR/USD continues trading in the sideways range of 1.1020 – 1.1070. Lately, the pair violated the horizontal resistance level of 1.1050, which is likely to push the EUR/USD pair towards 1.1100 today. 

Taking a look at the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD is rising in an upward channel. The bullish channel is extending support at 1.100, but before this, the previously violated figure of 1.1050 can extend bullish rally until 1.1100. Consider staying bullish above 1.1061 today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The cable pair consolidating in the narrow range below five-months highs The GBP/USD currency pair hit the highest level of 1.2800 since May from the intraday declines of the 1.2655 area on Wednesday, mainly due to positive Brexit headlines. 

The British Pound was additionally depressed by the report in which said that the technical Brexit discussions have stuck in the obstacle, and the Brexit deal seems impossible until the United Kingdom moves. Meanwhile, the Wednesday disappointment from the new consumer numbers left a little impact on the pair intraday two-way price swings.

On the final notes, the statement came from the French President Macron, that Brexit deal was on the last track, provided substantial relief to the GBP buyers. Moreover, the German Chancellor Angela Market also said that the Brexit discussions are now at the end of the story and gave further support to the GBP.


Daily Support and Resistance

 S3 1.2341

S2 1.2563

S1 1.2691

Pivot Point 1.2785

R1 1.2913

R2 1.3006

R3 1.3228

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

The GBP/USD currency pair raised a little from the daily highs and now looks like that the pair entered in the phase of consolidation. That is seemingly caused by the investors avoiding from putting any further bullish bets due to the crucial European Council Summit, starting from today, which will finally decide the United Kingdom will leave the European Union with a deal or not on October 31.

The GBP/USD is testing the firm resistance market of 1.285 and also have formed bearish candles followed by a strong bullish trend. This can drive bearish movement in the market. Therefore, consider the trend bearish below1.2860 mark, and the GBP/USD can stay bearish until 1.2754 and 1.2736 areas.

All the best!  

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 16 – Major Trade Setups – Brace for Price Action CPI & Retail Sales!

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 98.31. Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest economic report, the Beige Book.

The British pound resumed

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 98.31. Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest economic report, the Beige Book.

The British pound resumed

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 98.31. Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest economic report, the Beige Book.

The British pound resumed its rally amid growing Brexit deal optimism, surging 1.2% to $1.2760, the highest level since May 16. It was reported that the U.K. and European Union negotiators would present a draft Brexit deal to national delegations later today. On the other hand, official data showed that U.K.’s jobless rate rose to 3.9% in the three months to August (3.8% expected). September CPI will be reported later today (+1.8% on-year expected).

The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1034. The ZEW German Current Situation Index dropped to -25.3 in October (-23.6 expected, -19.9 in September), the lowest level since April 2010. USD/JPY climbed 0.4% to 108.81.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

XAU/USD– Daily Analysis

The safe-haven metal prices flashing green as traders priced in the latest news regarding Brexit and Sino-US trade worries. The Sino-U.S. trade tensions once again escalated, as China now wants the United States to reduce tariff before singing the purchase of $50 billion of American agriculture products under the round one trade deal touted by the U.S. President Donald Trump.

Brexit negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union are reaching a decisive stage. Reports came that a deal between the two sides may be near, but it was still unclear if London could avoid delaying its departure, which is due on October 31.

The United States will not go ahead with the hike in tariffs on nearly $250 billion of Chinese products from 25% to 30%, which is often indicative. Trump and Xi are due to meet in the interests of the APEC conference next November. The mid-December tariff on approximately $160 billion of Chinese products, is what is presently a crucial decision for both nations. 


Daily Support and Resistance

    S3 1443.07

S2 1464.37

S1 1472.78

Pivot Point 1485.67

R1 1494.08

R2 1506.97

R3 1528.27

XAU/USD– Trading Tips

Gold continues to exhibit choppy trading in a small area of 1,487 – 1,477. A bullish breakout of 1,487 can extend buying until 1,494 level whereas, the bearish breakout of 1,477 level is likely to continue selling until 1,464 level. 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair trading above the 50-day moving average for the 3rd consecutive day and failed to hit the critical level resistance level of 1.1075 despite Brexit optimism.

As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading near 1.1030, found on the bearish track on the day in the wake of U.S. monthly retail sales data. By the way, the 50-day Moving Average is now located at 1.1038.

The shared currency rose from 1.0991 on Tuesday, strengthening the bullish breakout. The bullish bias was hinted by Friday’s bullish breakout, a trendline connecting June 25 and August 13 highs. However, the pair took a buying trend, possibly due to the news of the United Kingdom, and the European Union is closing on a Brexit deal.

At the Brexit front, the Brititan Prime Minister Boris Johnson needs the excellent support of Democratic Unionist Parties to pass the Brexit agreement in Parliament.

However, the Democratic Unionist Party is playing rough. The party’s leader has dismissed the statement that it has agreed to support such agreement wherein Northern Ireland will stay in the United Kingdom customs area but adhere to the Europan Union customs rules on tariffs.

The United States retail sales data is scheduled to release at12:30 GMT, is expected to show the retail sales growth slowed to 0.3% in September from August’s reading of 0.4%. Sluggish data will support the dovish Federal Reserve expectations and probably will start the selling trend in the greenback.



Daily Support and Resistance

    S3 1.091

S2 1.0972

S1 1.1005

Pivot Point 1.1034

R1 1.1067

R2 1.1096

R3 1.1158

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The EUR/USD trade in the restricted range of 1.1020 – 1.1060. The Euro has violated descending trend line resistance, making it weaker against the greenback since late June. That’s suggesting a correction higher is forthcoming.  

On the 4-hour chart above, the EUR/USD is mounting in a bullish channel, which is supporting the pair above 1.1000 level. The daily resistance stays at 1.1050. Consider staying bullish above 1.1030 level to target 1.1050 and 1.1070. On the flip side, the pair can remain bearish below 1.1030 until 1.0976 and 1.0856. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair has crossed the level above its 200-day Moving Average resistance for the first time since May 13. Probably, the pair will further increase if Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson gets the support of the Democratic Unionist Party for the approval of the Brexit agreement in the Parliament.

Whereas the Europan Union (E.U.) and the United Kingdom are closing on Brexit agreement, the Democratic Unionist Party is still aggressive. Nevertheless, the Democratic Unionist Party is playing rough. The party’s leader Arlene Foster has dismissed the statement that it has agreed to support such agreement wherein Northern Ireland will stay in the United Kingdom customs area but adhere to the Europan Union customs rules on tariffs.

We all want to make this deal, but it must be a deal in which you have to consider the economic and legal integrity of the British, and that means the whole United Kingdom, included Northern Ireland.

It should also be noted that the Democratic Unionist Party ten lawmakers will play a key role in deciding that the Prime Minster Boris Johnson can pass any agreement in Parliament or not.

The GBP could come under pressure if Boris Johnson does not succeed in getting support from the Democratic Unionist Party. In consequence, the GBP/USD currency pair may drop to the level below the 200-day Moving Average, presently trading at 1.2710.

On the other hand, the cable pair may also take fresh hints from the United Kingdom Consumer Price Index, which is scheduled to release at 08:30 GMT.


Daily Support and Resistance

   

S3 1.199

S2 1.2289

S1 1.2469

Pivot Point 1.2588

R1 1.2768

R2 1.2887

R3 1.3185

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

Technically, the GBP/USD extends to trade upward on the back of a more solid Sterling. The pair have achieved a 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.2692 and now trading over this level, scanning for a substantial fundamental reason to define the next movement.  

On the upper side, the GBP/USD is expected to meet resistance around 1.2800. Breakout 1.2800 can trigger more buying until 1.12849. Let’s keep an eye on 1.2695 now to take quick trade opportunities.

All the best!  

Categories
Forex Market Analysis Forex Signals

Gold Steady Below 50 EMA – Brace for a Breakout! 

Gold prices trade sideways in a narrow trading range of 1,495 – 1,490 as expectations of improvement in U.S-China trade discussions were moderated and ahead of a summit

Gold prices trade sideways in a narrow trading range of 1,495 – 1,490 as expectations of improvement in U.S-China trade discussions were moderated and ahead of a summit

Gold prices trade sideways in a narrow trading range of 1,495 – 1,490 as expectations of improvement in U.S-China trade discussions were moderated and ahead of a summit that will decide how Britain departs the European Union.

Technically, the precious metal gold is facing stiff resistance at 1,495. The 50 periods EMA and double top pattern are keeping the XAU/USD bearish below this level.



The formation of a series of Doji and Spinning Top candles is suggesting a weaker number of bulls in the market. Typically such pattern drives the bearish trends in the market.

The MACD and Stochastics are tossing in red and green territory, suggesting neutral bias among traders. Continuation of a bearish trend can trigger sell-off until 1,485.

Trade Setup 

Entry – Sell below 1,495

Take Profit – 1,484

Stop Loss – 1,498

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 15 – Major Trade Setups – Investors Back from Holiday! 

The U.S. dollar stabilized on Monday, with the ICE Dollar Index edging up 0.1% on the day to 98.46.

The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1027, halting a three-day rally. Official

The U.S. dollar stabilized on Monday, with the ICE Dollar Index edging up 0.1% on the day to 98.46.

The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1027, halting a three-day rally. Official

The U.S. dollar stabilized on Monday, with the ICE Dollar Index edging up 0.1% on the day to 98.46.

The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1027, halting a three-day rally. Official data showed that the eurozone industrial production grew 0.4% on month in August (+0.3% expected). Later today, the ZEW German Current Situation Index for October will be reported (-23.6 expected, -19.9 in September).

The British Pound retreated 0.3% to $1.2609, following a surge of more than 3.0% in the prior two sessions. Finnish Prime Minister Antti Rinne told reporters that he does not think it would be possible for the European Union and the U.K. to agree on the terms of a Brexit deal in time for the summit of leaders starting Thursday. Meanwhile, U.K.’s jobless rate for the three-month to August will be released later today (steady at 3.8% expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

 

XAU/USD– Daily Analysis

The safe-haven metal prices rose but still below the key level of $1500 due to fresh uncertainty between the United States and China trade talks. The U.S. gold futures for December delivery inched up 0.2% to $1,499.02 during the Asian session before taking a bearish turn ahead of the European session.

The gold prices recovered as China now wants to do more trade discussions before signing the critical phase one trade deal. The Chinese attitude appeared to contradict the U.S. President’s contention on Friday that both nations were very close to making a deal.

Besides, China wants Trump to finish the scheduled tariff hike in December. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced CNBC in an interview that he anticipates that both nations couldn’t reach on the deal due to the December hike.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1430.45

S2 1459.63

S1 1474.37

Pivot Point 1488.82

R1 1503.56

R2 1518

R3 1547.19

XAU/USD– Trading Tips

Gold has also exhibited choppy trading in a narrow range of 1,497 – 1,489. A bullish breakout of 1,496 can extend buying until 1,502 level whereas, the bearish breakout of 1,489 level is likely to continue selling until 1,481 level and 1,474. Today 1,494 is a crucial level to focus, as gold can stay bearish below this and bullish above this level.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair found on the Doji candlestick pattern which indicates traders’ indecision. The EUR/USD currency pair hit a high and low of 1.1043 and 1.1013, and the trading area remained the same as it was on Friday. The EUR/USD continues to maintain a sideways range of 1.1063 and 1.1001. 

At the German Zew Survey front, Economic Sentiment (Oct), which is scheduled to release at 09:00 GMT, is anticipated to print at -27.3 against-22.5 in September. Whereas, the current is expected to come in at -26, marking a deterioration from September’s -19.9 reading. 

Upbeat expectations may get a strong buying trend in the shared currency. However, a bullish daily close could remain elusive If the markets turn risk-averse due to the negative China producer price index data, which was released in the Asian trading hours.


Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1.091

S2 1.0972

S1 1.1005

Pivot Point 1.1034

R1 1.1067

R2 1.1096

R3 1.1158

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The EUR/USD currency pair trading sideways in tight trading limits of 1.1043 and 1.1001. A close above 1.1043 would suggest a resumption of the rally from fresh lows around 1.0879. Conversely, a close below Monday’s low of 1.1043 would mean an end of the recovery rally.

An upward channel of the EUR/USD is still intact, and the major currency pair continues to trade within this range of 1.1043 and 1.1001. Consider taking buying positions over 1.100 level to target 1.1050 and 1.1070. On the flip side, bearish bias can be seen under 1.1000 until 1.0976 and 1.0856. 

 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair got to the highest level since January 2018. The investors are expecting Brexit breakthrough and continuing bets to position for a rally in Pound.

As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2618, found on the highest track on the day. 

One-month risk reversals (GBP1MRR), a gauge of calls to puts on the GBP, increased above zero on Friday and currently stands at 0.25, the highest level in 21 months.

The possibilities of Britain securing an orderly departure from the Europan Union have lost during this week due to the comments by the Finlands Prime Minister that time has finished.

However, the GBP currency could continue its bullish momentum as there are some renewed sentiments regarding anther Brexit summit, most probably at the end of this month.

Additionally, the British Pound may get buyings if the United Average Earnings (Aug) releases against past expectations. The data is scheduled to release at 08:30 GMT.

On the negative note, if the data release against the expectation and if any negative news comes concerning Brexit, then the GBP/USD currency pair could hit the bearish track sharply. 


Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1.199

S2 1.2289

S1 1.2469

Pivot Point 1.2588

R1 1.2768

R2 1.2887

R3 1.3185

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

Technically, the GBP/USD continues to trade bullish in the wake of a stronger Sterling. The pair has completed 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.2592 and now holding above this level, looking for a solid fundamental reason to determine the next movement.  

On the upper side, the GBP/USD is likely to face strong double top resistance around 1.2700. Breakout 1.2700 can trigger further buying until 1.12759. Let’s keep an eye on 1.2588 now to take quick trade opportunities.

All the best!  

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Gold’s Safe Haven Demand Fades – Partial Trade War Plays! 

On Monday, the safe-haven metal prices rose but remain below the level of $1500 as the United States and China completed one round of trade meetings, and the United States

On Monday, the safe-haven metal prices rose but remain below the level of $1500 as the United States and China completed one round of trade meetings, and the United States

On Monday, the safe-haven metal prices rose but remain below the level of $1500 as the United States and China completed one round of trade meetings, and the United States planned to delay tariff on Chinese goods this week. Gold contract slipped 0.2% to trade at $1,491.35.

The U.S. President Donald Trump sketched the first round of a deal to settle the protracted Sino-U.S. trade war and halted a vulnerable tariff hike, the most significant step by the two nations in 15 months.

In return for the U.S. decision to delay tariff, China agreed to buy $40 billion and $50 billion in U.S. agricultural goods. More steps will be reached in the second phase, the president said.

The safe-haven metal prices swiftly dropped after the report came that the investors adopted the risky assets and dropped the safe-havens.

Technically, the Fibonacci retracement levels are playing a significant role. As you can see on the 2-hour chart above, the XAU/USD is trading right below the 38.2% retracement. This level used to work as resistance last week, but now, the same level is working as a resistance.

The closing of a 2-hour candle below 1,496 is suggesting bearish bias among traders. On the lower side, gold may find support at 1,486 and 1,480 level today.

Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1430.45

S2 1459.63

S1 1474.37

Pivot Point 1488.82

R1 1503.56

R2 1518

R3 1547.19

Consider staying bearish below 1,494 areas to target 1,487 and 1,482 today. On the flip side, buying can be seen in over 1,496 areas.

All the best!

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Forex Market Analysis

Gold Slips to 61.8% Retracement – Safe Have Demand Fades! 

On Friday, gold prices reversed from a one-week high after a rumor hinted that China needs to reach an agreement with the U.S. to avoid further acceleration of an open-ended

On Friday, gold prices reversed from a one-week high after a rumor hinted that China needs to reach an agreement with the U.S. to avoid further acceleration of an open-ended

On Friday, gold prices reversed from a one-week high after a rumor hinted that China needs to reach an agreement with the U.S. to avoid further acceleration of an open-ended trade. The safe-haven-metal prices slipped due to positive headlines cames regarding the US-China trade war and Brexit.

The stock market traded bullish due to the positive trade news that the United States and China could reach on the positive outcome this week. As a result, the safe-haven gold prices came under pressure. The United States and China may announce a limited trade agreement during this week, avoiding a new increase in trade tension.

The White House stated that the trade talks going unexpectedly well. However, the future positive headlines regarding trade increased the chances of a currency deal this week.

The market is now trading with Risk-off sentiment, shifting all the investment from gold to stock market. Technically, the precious metal gold has dropped from 1499 area to 1479 points amid faded safely have demand.

Earlier gold faced triple top resistance at 1,513 area, which pushed gold prices lower towards 1,479 that marks 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1459.04

S2 1480.2

S1 1492.88

Pivot Point 1501.36

R1 1514.04

R2 1522.52

R3 1543.68

What’s Next?

Gold prices can stay bullish above 1,479 area, and closing of 4-hour candles bove this level could drive buying in gold. 

The RSI and MACD have already entered the oversold zone, suggesting bulls are looming around the corner. 

Gold may find an immediate resistance at 1,487, along with support around 1,479. Violation of 1,479 can lead to gold prices to 1,470 later in the U.S. session. 

All the best! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Gold’s Ascending Triangle Set to Break Lower – Eyes On 1,492!

 On Thursday, the precious metal gold prices climbed one-week highs, staying mostly over above $1,500 during the European session. But the scenario seems to change now as the

 On Thursday, the precious metal gold prices climbed one-week highs, staying mostly over above $1,500 during the European session. But the scenario seems to change now as the

 On Thursday, the precious metal gold prices climbed one-week highs, staying mostly over above $1,500 during the European session. But the scenario seems to change now as the U.S. investors seem to do profit takings in the overbought gold. 

The market sentiment is being driven by two things lately: 

There’s a potential rate cut in the next policy decision by the Federal Reserve. 

The United States and China trade war is damaging the United States economy as well.

The Federal Reserve has already delivered two rates back to back rate cuts so far this year, in the wake of protecting the United States economy record decade-long growth.

Following an FOMC meeting minutes and the Fed Chair speech, the market is focusing on the Jerome Powell announcement that the market participants are possibly expecting another rate cut, and this may not be on the cards this year. So basically, it’s a hawkish statement that drives the bearish trend in the gold prices. 

On the other hand, the traders want more transparency and certainty in the matter of the United States and China trade war. The market is still careful due to conflicting hints from both sides, as trades discussions continued this week.

Gold – Technical Outlook

Recalling our earlier update on gold, the XAU/USD had formed an ascending triangle pattern, which was keeping gold steady below 1,512 resistance level, and it was also extending support at 1,500 level.


Just an hour ago, the XAU/USD violated the ascending triangle pattern on the lower side. Gold may drop further towards a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1,492. Whereas the violation of 1,492 could lead to gold prices deeper towards 1,485. 

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1480.69

S2 1493.37

S1 1499.52

Pivot Point 1506.06

R1 1512.2

R2 1518.74

R3 1531.43

Consider taking a sell position below the 1,500 level to target 1,494 and 1,486.

All the best!

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Forex Market Analysis

Gold Trades Ascending Triangle – Brace for a Breakout!

On Wednesday, the precious metal gold prices trade sideways in a narrow trading range of 1,512 – 1500 in the wake of mixed economic events. Moreover, the uncertainties encompassing

On Wednesday, the precious metal gold prices trade sideways in a narrow trading range of 1,512 – 1500 in the wake of mixed economic events. Moreover, the uncertainties encompassing

On Wednesday, the precious metal gold prices trade sideways in a narrow trading range of 1,512 – 1500 in the wake of mixed economic events. Moreover, the uncertainties encompassing the United States and China trade war and dark Brexit headlines depressed investors’ sentiment. The gold futures for December delivery gained 0.5% to $1,511.83 at the start of the European session.

A report came from South China that China stepped back from the high-level trade talks between the United States and China. The report said the Chinese delegation might enter in Washington a day earlier than scheduled.

China also gave warning that they would hit back after the United States blacklisted a list of Chinese tech companies in the wake of China treatment with Muslim minorities, which ultimately threats increased incoming talks between the United States and China.

On the Brexit front, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Boris Johnson, U.K.’s Prime Minister, that Northern Ireland has to continue being part of the customs union in any deal, which Johnson said has paved the way for a no-deal Brexit.

Gold – Technical Outlook

Technically, the XAU/USD has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which is keeping gold steady below 1,512 resistance level. The ascending triangle pattern is extending support at 1,500 level.
Typically, these ascending triangle patterns break out on the upper side and may extend bullish rally up to 1,534 in a medium run.

Daily Support and Resistance
S3 1459.04
S2 1480.2
S1 1492.88
Pivot Point 1501.36
R1 1514.04
R2 1522.52
R3 1543.68

Consider taking a buying position on the bullish breakout of 1,513 to target 1,525 and 1,530.

All the best!

Categories
Forex Signals

Gold Surge Amid Boosted Haven Appeal – Trade War In Focus!

 Today in the early European session, the safe-haven metal prices slipped due to less expectation of the rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Earlier today, the U.S. Gold was

 Today in the early European session, the safe-haven metal prices slipped due to less expectation of the rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Earlier today, the U.S. Gold was

 Today in the early European session, the safe-haven metal prices slipped due to less expectation of the rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Earlier today, the U.S. Gold was down by 0.6% at $1,495.85 as Fed Rate Monitor Tool showed a high chance for a quarter-point rate cut when the Federal Reserve meets Oct. 28-29 at 69.5 percent, versus 72.7 percent on Monday and 78 percent on Friday. The lowered chances of easing by the Federal Reserve continued to hurt gold in post-settlement trade, sending it under the critical $1500 level.

As of writing this, the precious metal gold prices are surging in the wake of boosted safe-haven appeal amid the uncertainty. China-U.S. trade talks are expected to affect gold’s movement late this week when high-level negotiations between the two sides resume this Thursday.

Trade discussions are expected to manage the gold prices movement during this week when both high-level officials will do talks between the two sides’ resumes on Thursday.

At the Hong Kong front, the government of Hong Kong invoked a colonial-era emergency law to stop protesters wearing face masks. Due to this decision, further made the worst environment, which damage China’s banking facilities and retail outlets in the entire city.

Gold – Technical Analysis 

On the technical front, gold has for Doji pattern at 1,497 area, which has to extend support to gold since the morning while the RSI and MACD are shifting in the buy zone.  

   


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1456.57

S2 1476.39

S1 1484.55

Pivot Point 1496.21

R1 1504.37

R2 1516.03

R3 1535.85

Three bullish candles on the 4-hour chart are signaling chances of a further bullish trend. Today, gold may find an immediate resistance level at 1,513 and support at 1,487 level. Consider staying bearish below the triple top level of 1,513 zones. 

All the best

Categories
Forex Market Analysis Forex Signals

Choppy Sessions in Gold – Brace for a Quick Breakout!

The safe-haven metal gold prices consolidate in the narrow range of $1,508.60 and $1,497 at the start of this week. The lack of volatility in the market was

The safe-haven metal gold prices consolidate in the narrow range of $1,508.60 and $1,497 at the start of this week. The lack of volatility in the market was

The safe-haven metal gold prices consolidate in the narrow range of $1,508.60 and $1,497 at the start of this week. The lack of volatility in the market was mostly due to the national holidays in China.  

However, the precious metal gold prices slipped later during the European session as the dollar rallied after a report stated China was unwilling to consent to a broad trade deal with Washington. The bullion traded in a tight range as investors adopted a wait-and-see strategy before U.S.-China discussions this week.

As we know, it was all about the United States employment data, which is disappointing, and jobless rate prints a low of 3.5% during September, from 3.7% in August. The United States and Chinese trades are ready to start again this week. However, the Sentiment regarding trade war negotiations is not right.

Looking ahead into the fundamentals, some other key events are under the spotlight, including Federal Reserve chairman Powell’s speech, the FOMC minutes, and the United States Consumer Prices Index.

On the technical side, the gold prices started a day with a Doji candlestick on the charts and having the prices ending above the $1500 psychological level again. 

The technical side of the market seems pretty clear as investor’s are consistently testing 1,497 support area. The violation of this level could extend the bearish trend until 1,492 and 1,487. 

At the same level, we got the 50 periods EMA, which is also extending support at 1,497 zones. 

The leading indicator, such as MACD and RSI, are holding staying in the neutral zone, suggesting indecision among traders today. 


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1465.24

S2 1485.38

S1 1495.05

Pivot Point 1505.52

R1 1515.19

R2 1525.66

R3 1545.8

I would rather stay out of the market until we have clear direction about the market and clear path means either the bearish breakout of 1,497 or bullish candles closing above the same level.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis Forex Signals

Bullish Gold Heads for 61.8% Retracement – Weaker Dollar In Play! 

On Wednesday, the precious metal gold expanded after softer-than-expected U.S. economic figures which hiked concerns about global economic growth. Alongside this, it also raised chances of additional interest rate reductions

On Wednesday, the precious metal gold expanded after softer-than-expected U.S. economic figures which hiked concerns about global economic growth. Alongside this, it also raised chances of additional interest rate reductions

On Wednesday, the precious metal gold expanded after softer-than-expected U.S. economic figures which hiked concerns about global economic growth. Alongside this, it also raised chances of additional interest rate reductions, pushing traders towards the safe-haven metal.

The precious metal gold is still trading bullish adding 0.3% to trade at $1,483.6. Yesterday, gold slipped dramatically to place two months low at $1,458.50. However, the losses in gold were short-lived as it surged markedly as much as 1% during the late U.S. session.

The U.S. manufacturing activity dropped to a more than a decade low in September as imminent trade tautness pressures on exports. The vulnerable economic report raised global growth anxieties, leading global stock markets to a one-month low and boosting forecasts for further monetary policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Gold – Technical Outlook

On the technical front, gold has formed a bullish engulfing candle at 1,480 area, which is suggesting strong bullish bias among traders. On the upper side, gold is likely to meet the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1,492, but that’s only possible if it manages to crossover the 50% Fibo level of 1,487. 



Gold – Daily Technical Levels

Support    Resistance 

1,463.06    1,491.28

1,446.99    1,503.43

1,418.77    1,531.65

Pivot Point 1,475.21

Gold traders can consider trading bullish above 1,475 level today as the immediate target is likely to be 1,488 and 1,495. Selling can be seen below 1,498 level today. 

All the best!  

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis Forex Signals

Gold Loses Safe Haven, Can Triple Bottom Underpins? 

What’s happening on Gold?
On Monday, the yellow metal gold prices were headed distinctly lower, slipping beneath a psychologically vital level at $1,500 on the last trading day of

What’s happening on Gold?
On Monday, the yellow metal gold prices were headed distinctly lower, slipping beneath a psychologically vital level at $1,500 on the last trading day of

What’s happening on Gold?

On Monday, the yellow metal gold prices were headed distinctly lower, slipping beneath a psychologically vital level at $1,500 on the last trading day of a month as well as a quarter. 

Most of the bearish trend in gold is triggered by a more robust dollar and slight buying in the U.S. stocks and yields, pulling demand away from bullion market.

The U.S. President Donald Trump’s government is weighing delisting Chinese businesses from U.S. stock exchanges. Three specialists advised on the matter stated on Friday, in what would be a drastic intensification of U.S.-China trade tensions. 

This was supposed to drive a sharp buying in gold, but the subsequent news that the United States does not currently intend to prevent Chinese companies from entering on U.S. exchanges drove the risk-on sentiment in the market. 

Gold – Technical Outlook 

On the technical side, gold is trading at the triple bottom level of 1485, which is extending pretty solid support. The new candle has closed as a sort of hammer which may help drive bullish retracement in the gold. 

The leading indicator MACD is still forming bearish histograms, and its value stays at -14, suggesting a substantial bearish bias among traders.


The RSI and moving averages are still signaling bearish bias for gold, but may not see further selling until 1,485 gets violated. On the upperside, gold is likely to face resistance at 1,492 and 1,499. 

Gold – Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1,486.94    1,507.06

1,476.88    1,517.12

1,456.76    1,537.24

Pivot Point 1,497

Let’s seep an eye on 1497 to stay bearish and 1484 to remain bullish in gold today. All the best! Let’s

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Sep 24 – 28: EUR/USD, USD/JPY & Gold – Week Ahead

 

EUR/USD – ECB Mario Draghi Speech Remains In Focus

The US declared new taxes on China on $200 billion value of products, as exacted. Markets appeared to take it with a pace. Nevertheless, the greenback had the rise in 10-year yields. ECB President Mario Draghi did not rock the boat. August’s inflation numbers were confirmed at 2% on the headline and 1% on the core, just before September’s preliminary numbers.

Fundamentally, the Eurozone banks agreed to repay 3.6 billion euros ($4.2 billion) of ultra-cheap funding to the European Central Bank, returning only a fraction of their borrowings two years ahead of schedule.

 

EUR/USD – Technical Analysis 

Euro/dollar climbed up but was slightly stuck when testing the 1.1720 level. It then rose to 1.1800, the steepest since July before settling a bit lower.

  • 1.1915 was the lowest level in January and remains relevant. 1.1850 was the peak on June 14th, before Draghi sent the euro down. 1.1800 capped the pair in mid-September.
  • 1.1750 held the pair no less than four times in July and remains a powerful level.
  • 1.1720 is a veteran line that worked in both directions and it capped the pair in mid-September. 1.1650 was a swing low in late August and is very closely followed by 1.1630 which held the price down in mid-August.
  • 1.1580 worked as support in late August. 1.1530 supported the pair twice in August, making it an important line. 1.1435 held the EUR/USD down when it was trading around the yearly lows.
  • 1.1300 is a round number that held the pair in mid-August and also held the pair down in June 2017.

USD/JPY – Bank of Japan Leaves The Rate Unchanged

USD/JPY advanced nicely as trade wars took a step back, US yields climbed and the Fed remained hawkish. But not everything is going in favor of the pair.

The deadline came and went and the US did not impose new tariffs on China. On one hand, Trump threatened to add additional ones. On the other hand, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin initiated talks with China. Does he have the backing of Trump? Probably not, but Trump is busy with Florence, the hurricane pounding the Eastern seaboard.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

  • 113.15 is the high point seen in July. 112.45 was a stepping stone for the pair when it traded on such high ground. 112.15 was a swing high early in the month.
  • 111.80 was a peak in the dying days of August and serves as resistance. Close by, 111.50 capped the pair beforehand and is another barrier.
  • 110.60 was a swing low in late July and then again in late August. 109.70 was a swing low in late August and provides extra support below the round 110 level.
  • Close by, 109.35 was a cushion in mid-July. 108.70 was a cushion early in the summer and 108.10 a swing low in late May.
  • Lower, we find 107.50 capped the pair in early April and is a strong line.

Gold – Breakouts Out of Ascending Triangle Pattern Ahead of FOMC

On Friday, Gold prices sank more than 1 percent as the dollar firmed upon the British Pound and the Euro after British Prime Minister Theresa May said the European Union must supply an alternative Brexit proposal.

China’s progress to expand domestic consumption also helped support the dollar rally prompted by investor risks that the latest U.S.-China trade war was unlikely to dent global growth.

The dollar’s status as the chief reserve currency makes it the prime beneficiary of U.S.-China trade conflict, with the United States seen as having less to lose.

Gold – Technical Analysis

The gold bear trend is on hold for the fifth week in a row as the market is grinding higher. The 50, 100 and 200-period simple moving averages are coiled together while Gold is in consolidation mode. The RSI, MACD, and Stochastics indicators are bullish as buyers consider the consolidation phase as a bull flag while the market holds above 1,189.49 (September 4 low). Nothing indicates that the bullish momentum should abate anytime soon. Bulls target might be located near 1,225.90 (July 17 low). A break below 1,189.49 (September 4 low) should invalidate the bullish bias.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Sept 20 – Daily Briefing- Forex & Commodities In Focus

EUR/USD – Ascending Triangle Pattern In Play

The U.S. dollar trimmed lower against the euro and declined to the lowest in almost three weeks. As for the European Affairs Minister, Italy proposed the public debt within the Eurozone nations to be taken below 60% of the gross domestic product, via a long-term restructuring approved by the European Central Bank. The thoughts of reduction in debt extended support to the EUR/USD.

EUR/USD – Technical Levels
R3: 1.1828
R2: 1.1748
R1: 1.1717
Key Trading Level: 1.1667
S1: 1.1636
S2: 1.1587
S3: 1.1506

Trend continuation of EUR/USD is likely to be resolved by how investors react to the 1.1666 level which coincides with an ascending trendline. Therefore, a buying momentum above is needed if we want to see this pair reaching the 1.1900 final target. It is worth noticing that 1.1725 represents a heavy hurdle. On the contrary, the failure of the 1.1666 area would bring bears (i.e., sellers) back into the play field. Near-term downside targets are 1.1602, 1.15 and 1.10.

GBP/USD – UK Inflation Figures Underpins Sterling

After yesterday upbeating inflation figures, today´s docket brought us Retail Consumer data. Overall, retail sales numbers were worse than in the previous term but a bit better than expected, i.e., the (YoY) in August came at 3.3% v. 2.3% expected and 3.8% previous. By the time of writing this report, the Pound is reached yesterday´s High at 1.3200, the highest since July.

We still believe that everything for the Sterling is about Brexit and its negotiation ongoings. We could well witness a similar price action as yesterday, as we observe that sentiment is shifting to the downside. How long this will take is still uncertain.

GBP/USD – Technical Levels
R3: 1.3319
R2: 1.3225
R1: 1.3191
Key Trading Level: 1.3132
S1: 1.3098
S2: 1.3039
S3: 1.2945

The GBP/USD remains bullish at this point as long as it holds the 1.3135 support level. Rebound from 1.3135 could extend the Cable higher to 1.3190. However, the bearish breakout of 1.3135 can cause a drop up to 1.3100.

 

USD/JPY – Ascending Triangle Pattern

The USD/JPY remain mostly unchanged as the Bank of Japan interest rates were left unchanged at -0.1%, which was in line with traders forecasts. The Central Bank is also keeping its promise to keep 10-year government bond yields at 0% over the mid-term.

While leaving policy stable, inflation remains the biggest fear of both the government and BoJ. However, confidence towards the economy was pondered in the monetary policy statement regardless of growing tensions around global trade war. The Japanese Yen advanced from ¥112.324 to ¥112.349 against the Dollar, upon an announcement of the statement.

USD/JPY – Technical Levels
R3: 112.61
R2: 112.26
R1: 112.06
Key Trading Level: 111.91
S1: 111.7
S2: 111.56
S3: 111.21

For the moment, the immediate support level is likely to be 112.150. In the 4 hours chart, the pair extends moving away from it’s 100 and 200 SMA, with the smallest gaining upward traction, currently at about 111.45.

In the cited chart, the Relative Strength Index is crossing above 50, signifying the bullish bias of traders. As a result, the pair is heading north towards the potential target levels of 113.100, 114.150 and 115.300.

Gold – Ascending Triangle Pattern In Focus

The precious metal gold bounced as the dollar declined, symbolizing investors are starting to bother about the impact of the U.S.-China trade war on the U.S. economy, attracting some buyers back into gold investments. Gold prices have decreased by nearly 12% since April, damaged by the intensifying conflict and on growing U.S. interest rates with investors buying the dollar in the hope the United States has limited to lose from the conflict.

Gold – Technical Levels
R3: 1214.88
R2: 1207.08
R1: 1202.72
Key Trading Level: 1199.27
S1: 1194.92
S2: 1191.47
S3: 1183.66

For the moment, gold has formed an ascending triangle pattern which is signaling the bullish bias of traders. The precious metal is trading at 1203 with an immediate support near 1197 and a resistance at 1209.

 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily Briefing- Forex & Commodities In Focus

EUR/USD – Bounces Off After Inflation Report

The demand for the European currency continues firm at the inception of the week, raising EUR/USD to new daily highs in the 1.1690 zone. The index proceeds to gain from Friday’s pullback, climbing up after reaching solid contention in the 1.1620 areas.

 

Fundamentally, the downside risk from concerns regarding Italian fiscal sustainability now appears much more near term. However, the investors still believe the relative-rate support for the USD versus the EUR concurrently with the lingering trade war can cause a bearish pressure on the EUR/USD currency pair.

 

EUR/USD – Technical Levels
R3: 1.1858
R2: 1.1756
R1: 1.169
Key Trading Level: 1.1655
S1: 1.1588
S2: 1.1554
S3: 1.1452

GBP/USD – Goes For a Bullish Ride

Fundamentally, the European Union and Britain yet have a task to do to resolve a range of matters in Brexit negotiations including bypassing a “hard” border in Ireland, the EU stated before its negotiator Michel Barnier briefs ministers from member states.

The GBP/USD remains bullish at this point as long as it holds the 1.3135 support level. Rebound from 1.3135 could extend the Cable higher to 1.3190. However, the bearish breakout of 1.3135 can cause a drop up to 1.3100.

GBP/USD – Technical Levels
R3: 1.3266
R2: 1.3178
R1: 1.3124
Key Trading Level: 1.309
S1: 1.3036
S2: 1.3002
S3: 1.2915

 

USD/JPY – Ascending Triangle Pattern

The USD/JPY is pointing little change in the Monday session. At the moment, the pair is trading at 111.97, depressed 0.08% on the day. In economic headlines, it’s a modest inception to the week. The U.S Empire State Manufacturing Index sank piercingly from 25.6 to 19.0 points. This missed the forecast of 23.2 and was the weakest figure in five months.

For now, the monthly Bank of Japan rate meeting is awaited which is coming out on Tuesday. But it’s not expected to cause any major move in the market. As policymakers are foreseen to keep the short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and a promise to guide long-term rates near 0%.

 

USD/JPY – Technical Levels
R3: 112.83
R2: 112.41
R1: 112.24
Key Trading Level: 112
S1: 111.82
S2: 111.58
S3: 111.16

Gold Jumps above $1200 – Weaker Dollar In Play

Gold has begun the week with heavy gains. In Monday’s North American business, the spot rate for one ounce of gold is $1202.93, up 0.74% on the day. In the U.S, a key manufacturing report failed to surprise the market. The Empire State Manufacturing Index fell sharply, dropping from 25.6 to 19.0 points, causing a weakness in the dollar and bringing bulls for the gold.

Is the US-China trade war about to open a new stage? The world’s two biggest economies have now exchanged tariffs, and President Trump has frightened to piercingly up the ante and force tariffs of some $200 billion on China which is also causing a sort of haven appeal in the market. The greenback remains under pressure in the absence of economic catalysts. That’s why we are seeing a bullish trend in gold.

 

For the moment, the precious metal is heading north towards the major resistance level of 1208. On the 2 – hour chart, you can see it’s a triple top pattern and historically pattern is known for the bearish reversals.

 

Gold  – Technical Levels
R3: 1230.09
R2: 1214.21
R1: 1203.9
Key Trading Level: 1198.33
S1: 1188.02
S2: 1182.45
S3: 1166.57

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily Review: Gold, EUR/USD, GBP/USD Technical & Fundamental Outlook!

EUR/USD – ECB Strengthens the Single Currency

The ECB persists constructive. Today, it left monetary policy stable, proving its expectation that net asset purchases will stop in December and policy rates will persist at their prevailing levels at least through the summer of 2019. The ECB also broadly affirmed its forecast for GDP and CPI as well as the risks to an extension, with the latter still seen as widely balanced amid rebounding domestic demand. The only concession to the doves was the acknowledgment that uncertainty relating to protectionism, emerging markets and financial market volatility “gained more prominence recently”.

EUR/USD rose 0.45% to $1.1678 following the European Central Bank’s widely expected unchanged rate decision and signs the central bank is committed to ending its bond-buying program. The EUR/USD has come out of the sideways channel and can head to 1.1718. While the support prevails at 1.1665.

GBP/USD Soars On Hawkish BOE

GBP/USD rose 0.50% to $1.3107 $1.3108 as the Bank of England held rates steady but expressed optimism over the U.K. economy, citing both stronger-than-expected second-quarter economic and wage growth. The GBP/USD is facing a strong resistance near 1.3135 and support at 1.3080. The ascending triangle patterns usually violate on the bullish side and that’s exactly what we can expect from the Cable today. The bullish breakout can lead the pair towards 1.3165

 

Gold Jumps on Weaker Dollar

Gold prices slid on Thursday as investors purchased riskier assets instead of seeking a safe haven in gold, amid hopes for a new round of U.S.-China trade talks. The dollar index declined against a basket of major currencies after data showed U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in August, paring traders’ outlook that domestic inflation is accelerating.

On the hourly chart, gold has crossed above the significant resistance level of 1198. The immediate resistance can be found at 1209 levels. The leading indicators like RSI crossed above 50, signifying the bullish sentiment of traders. At the moment, 1197 is likely to work as a support.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily Review: Gold, EUR/USD, GBP/USD In Focus!

EUR/USD

 

Fundamental Analysis

The EUR/USD has trimmed lower in the London session and the pair is trading at 1.1576, down 0.20% on the day. Speaking about fundamentals, the Eurozone industrial production faded 0.8%, dropping the estimate of -0.5%. What’s next?

 

Well, we got the PPI and Core PPI figures from the United States. Both are anticipated to grow to 0.2%  and can support the dollar today. Let’s see how the actual outcome impacts the market.

Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD is trading in a sideways channel which is providing it a nice support at 1.1570 and resistance at 1.1605. The EUR/USD is likely to target 1.1645 upon the bullish breakout, while, the bearish breakout is likely to open further room for selling until 1.1530.

 

GBP/USD

 

Fundamental Analysis

The GBP/USD pair fought for a firm course but remained stuck in between tepid gains/minor losses, within a broader trading range through the early European session.  While the pair is relatively range bound as the investors seem to save their shots ahead of the Bank of England’s rate decisions. In today’s market, the intra-day lows hit by the pair could be seen as the impact of investors interests over global trade tensions which supported the safe-haven appeal for the greenback.

 

Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD has formed an ascending triangle pattern which is providing it a strong resistance near 1.3035 and support at 1.2980. The ascending triangle patterns usually violate on the bullish side and that’s exactly what we can expect from the Cable today. The bullish breakout can lead the pair towards 1.3075.

Gold – XAU/USD

 

Fundamental Analysis

Earlier today, the gold remained stuck in a narrow trading range as investors worry about a heated trade war between the United States and China. The trade dispute between Washington and Beijing has urged investors to buy the U.S. dollar in the hope that the United States has fewer to lose from the conflict. Overall, the Gold has been stabbed in a $20 price limit over the prior two weeks, with traders seeing for technical breakouts for evidence on further movements.

Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart, gold has crossed above the significant resistance level of 1198. The immediate resistance can be found at 1203 and 1206 levels. The leading indicators like RSI and CMF have crossed above 50, signifying the bullish sentiment of traders. For now, 1197 is likely to work as a support. The U.S. inflation will be in focus tomorrow for further clues on gold’s movement.

 

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Forex Market Analysis

July 2 – Daily Update on S&P500 & Gold – NFP Week Begins

On the first day of the 3rd quarter, the financial markets remained heavily volatile in the wake of trade war sentiments. For instance, gold slid more than 1% to its

On the first day of the 3rd quarter, the financial markets remained heavily volatile in the wake of trade war sentiments. For instance, gold slid more than 1% to its

On the first day of the 3rd quarter, the financial markets remained heavily volatile in the wake of trade war sentiments. For instance, gold slid more than 1% to its lowest ahead of the U.S. holiday, as the dollar recovered. Whereas, the indices inducing SPX, DAX and Nikkei plunged due to ongoing U.S.-European Union trade war. In addition to this, the July 6 trade war tensions have helped the risk sentiment to stay off.  

 

Later this week, we have another series of high impact economic events coming out of the market. Let’s take a quick look.

 

Top Economic Events to Trade

AUD – Building Approvals m/m – 1:30 (GMT)

AUD – RBA Rate Statement – 4:30 (GMT)

AUD – Cash Rate – 4:30 (GMT)

GBP – Construction PMI – 8:30 (GMT)

 

Gold – XAU/USD – Daily Outlook

The precious metal gold is trading at 1242, down 11.60 points and 0.92% on Monday. One of the main reasons behind the bearish trend is the stronger dollar.

 

The greenback continued its ascent as traders boosted their bets that the U.S. administration would prove better in a trade war as compared to some of its trading rivals. The U.S. tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese imported goods are due for July 6.


 

Support     Resistance 

1240.83    1247.17

1238.87    1249.13

1235.7    1252.3

Key Trading Level:    1244

         

SPX  – S&P500-  Technical Outlook

SPX is trading bullish at 2727, up 5.75 points and 0.21%. On the 4- hour chart, the bullish trendline is extending a support near 2679. While the resistance predominates at 2732 and 2745 today. The main trend is up as per the daily swing chart. But, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 2679.25 will convert the main trend (bullish) into the bearish bias.

 

Overall, the main trading range of SPX is 2595 to 2796. The index is currently testing the upper or 50% level of this range at 2795.75.



 

Support     Resistance 

2705.72    2719.32

2701.52    2723.52

2694.72    2730.32

Key Trading Level:    2712.52
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Forex Market Analysis

June 29 – Technical Update on S&P500 & Gold – U.S. GDP Disappoints

The financial markets remained heavily volatile due to a series of market-moving economic events like the German CPI and U.S. Final GDP.  Well, the game isn’t over yet. We have

The financial markets remained heavily volatile due to a series of market-moving economic events like the German CPI and U.S. Final GDP.  Well, the game isn’t over yet. We have

The financial markets remained heavily volatile due to a series of market-moving economic events like the German CPI and U.S. Final GDP.  Well, the game isn’t over yet. We have another series of high impact economic events coming out of the market on Friday. Let’s take a quick look.

 

Top Economic Events to Trade

  • EUR – German Retail Sales m/m – 6:00 (GMT)
  • GBP – Current Account – 8:30 (GMT)
  • GBP – Final GDP q/q – 8:30 (GMT)
  • EUR – CPI Flash Estimate y/y – 9:00 (GMT)    
  • CAD – GDP m/m – 12:30 (GMT)
  • USD –  Chicago PMI – 13:45 (GMT)

 

Although there are lot more economic events due to be released, these are the most important ones and may help you capture a nice amount of pips.     

 

Gold – XAU/USD – Daily Outlook

On Thursday, gold plunged to its weakest level in six months to trade at $1,247. Most of the selling came in response to escalating pressure from the trade war and the sentiments of higher U.S. interest rates which continues to weigh on gold. Nevertheless, we can expect a modest reversal in the near term. Price action is expected to retrace the decays back to 1263, the same level which earlier served as support.



 

Support     Resistance 

1252.5    1259.76

1250.26    1262

1246.63    1265.63

Key Trading Level:    1256.13

              

 

SPX – S&P 500 – Technical Outlook

SPX is trading bullish near 2718 after gaining support above 2694. On the 4- hour chart, the upward trendline is also extending support near 2679. While the resistance prevails at 2732 and 2745 today, the main trend is up as per the daily swing chart, but, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 2679.25 will convert the main trend (bullish) into the bearish bias.



 

Overall, the main trading range of SPX is 2595 to 2796. The index is currently testing the upper or 50% level of this range at 2795.75.

 

Support     Resistance 

2697.19    2732.87

2686.16    2743.9

2668.32    2761.74

Key Trading Level:    2715.03

 

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Forex Market Analysis

June 28 – Technical Update on S&P500 & Gold – Trade War Tension Eased

It was quite a busy day with series of economic events from global economies. The greenback advanced as trade-related tensions eased after the U.S. administration relaxed its approach to Chinese

It was quite a busy day with series of economic events from global economies. The greenback advanced as trade-related tensions eased after the U.S. administration relaxed its approach to Chinese

It was quite a busy day with series of economic events from global economies. The greenback advanced as trade-related tensions eased after the U.S. administration relaxed its approach to Chinese investment. Most of its buying came on the Euro and the Swiss Franc. Whereas, gold prices hovered on top of 6 months lows as traders continuing to shun the yellow-metal despite signs of a reversal in risk sentiment. The robust greenback continues to keep a lid on the precious metals bullish trend.

 

S&P 500 – Daily Outlook

The New York stock market index  SPX is trading at 2706, down -22.75 points and -0.82%. S&P500 is facing a strong support near 2700, a double bottom level. The violation of 2700 can lead SPX towards 2679. The moving averages are suggesting a bearish bias of investors. The RSI and Stochastics have entered the oversold zone. Let’s see if SPX gets a chance to pull back above 2700.



 

Support     Resistance 

2706        2735.56

2696.86     2744.7

2682.08     2759.48

Key Trading Level:    2720.78

 

Gold – XAU/USD – Daily Outlook

 

Gold traded in a tight range of 1252 – 1261, troubled to manoeuvre off session lows because the greenback remained supported despite a small reversal in intraday risk sentiment, helping safe-haven currencies trim their losses against the dollar.

 

Technical indicators signal gold will continue to drop. For instance, gold has already violated the 1252 support level which is likely to work as a resistance now. Moreover, the moving averages also suggest a bearish bias of traders.



Support     Resistance 

1256.9    1266.84

1253.84    1269.9

1248.87    1274.87

Key Trading Level:    1261.87

 

Investors are advised to monitor the U.S. Final GDP q/q in order to capture further movements in the dollar index, gold, and the U.S. stocks.

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Forex Market Analysis

June 25 – Quick Technical Update on S&P500 & Gold

The U.S. stocks sank during a broad sell-off on Monday, with the S&P 500 dropping over 1.5 %. In particular, the technology companies bearing the strength of an escalating

The U.S. stocks sank during a broad sell-off on Monday, with the S&P 500 dropping over 1.5 %. In particular, the technology companies bearing the strength of an escalating

The U.S. stocks sank during a broad sell-off on Monday, with the S&P 500 dropping over 1.5 %. In particular, the technology companies bearing the strength of an escalating trade dispute between the U.S.  and different leading economies.

 

The U.S. Treasury was drafting curbs that may block companies with a minimum of 25% Chinese possession from purchasing  U.S. technology companies. In response, the dollar plunged to a two-week low against the yen as a rise in the global trade worries depressed investor risk appetites and turned down U.S. yields.

 

S&P 500 – Daily Outlook

The U.S. stock market index SPX is trading at 2709.02, down 45.25 points and 1.67%. S&P500 is facing a strong support near 2700 after falling 1.59% today. We can expect a pullback above 2700, whereas the violation of this level will lead SPX -1.66% towards 2685.



S&P500- Intraday Support & Resistance Levels 

Support     Resistance 

2745.54      2769.84

2738.04      2777.34

2725.89      2789.49

Key Trading Level:    2757.69

 

Gold – XAU/USD – Daily Outlook

The precious metal gold is trading bearish at 1267.57, down -0.17% on Monday. Technically, Gold is trading sideways with a lower range of 1264 – 1271. The breakout of this range will define the further trend of gold. The breakout above 1271 can lead gold prices towards 1275 while a breakout below 1265 will open further room for buying until 1261.



Gold- Intraday Support & Resistance Levels 

Support     Resistance 

1271.5     1273.64

1270.84    1274.3

1269.77    1275.37

Key Trading Level:    1272.57

That’s pretty much it for now. Investors are advised to monitor the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence in order to capture further movements in the dollar index, gold, and the U.S. stocks.

 

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Forex Market Analysis

June 22 – Quick Update on Gold and SPX – Risk-Off Sentiment Plays

The global stock markets are facing an immense amount of selling pressure as risk-off sentiment continues to dominate the market. The European Union is anticipated to impose tariffs on approx

The global stock markets are facing an immense amount of selling pressure as risk-off sentiment continues to dominate the market. The European Union is anticipated to impose tariffs on approx

The global stock markets are facing an immense amount of selling pressure as risk-off sentiment continues to dominate the market. The European Union is anticipated to impose tariffs on approx $3.4 billion of U.S. imports on a weekday. The expected tariffs have added to tensions as investors worry about an outright world trade war between the U.S., the EU, and China.

Tensions between the U.S. and China have additionally continued because these 2 largest economies within the world, faced a tit-for-tat over trade tariffs. Earlier on, U.S. President Donald Trump decided to impose tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese merchandise.

 

Gold – XAUUSD – Daily Outlook

Gold prices alleviated from fresh lows for the year because the greenback turned negative on weaker U.S. economic figures. Gold futures for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $3.10 or 0.24%, to $1,271.10 an ounce, spiralling to a new 2018 low of $1,263.20.

A sharp retreat within the greenback – from its highest level since last summer – supported a recovery in gold, however, sentiment remained negative amid expectations of an aggressive Fed rate-hike cycle would still spur demand for the dollar.



 

Gold was down by 0.31%, and it has completed 61.8% retracement near 1270.67 and below this. We can expect a selling opportunity, whereas, the support prevails near 1264 and 1261.

Support    Resistance
1268.04    1272.02
1266.82    1273.24
1264.83    1275.23
Key Trading Level: 1270.03

 

S&P500 – SPX – Dialy Outlook

The S&P500 is trading bearish at 2,748.50, down 22.50 points and -0.78% for the day. That’s mostly because of risk-off sentiment. Investors are feeling uncertain regarding the U.S.- China trade war issues and thereby moving their investments towards safer assets such as Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and Gold.



 

Technically, SPX has already completed a 50% retracement at $2,745 on the 2-hour chart. The U.S. is likely to gain support on this level, whereas, the bearish breakout can lead it towards $2,735.

Support   Resistance
2764.52    2772.88
2761.93    2775.47
2757.75    2779.65
Key Trading Level: 2768.7

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Forex Market Analysis

XAUUSD Major Bear Move Ahead

The arc was holding as a strong support zone for gold, but we have ultimately seen it breakdown and out from that area. We have had an extended bear flag on this chart since the 21st of May and when combining Gann’s Market geometry with the Ichimoku system, we can see a clear and strong sell signal has been generated with both of these methods of analysis. I am targeting the 1282.68 zone as my first profit target area but we should and could see some support off of the 1×2 angle below us at the 1292.5 value area.

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Forex Market Analysis

XAUUSD Resting On A Key Area, Breakdown Imminent

 

 

XAUUSD

 

XAUUSD resting on capitulation zone

XAUUSD is resting on a very key area and trend line. It is already trading within an expansive trading range in a Square of 90 and if we are to follow the conditions of Gann’s Rule of Angles, the target area for XAUUSD to test is the 1238 value area. This temporary reprieve within this open zone is being held up by an uptrend line that started back in December of 2016. Also, we are approaching a perfect square in price and time within the Square of 90: the 50% level of time and 50% level of price intersect along with the major 45-degree angles on June 20th. Violent moves should be expected both before and after this date. Because the trend has thus far been up, this confluence zone should be treated as a resistance in time to the trend in force.

 

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Forex Market Analysis

Are The Global Indices Bouncing Back?

Global Indices

In the last week, we have seen some bullish momentum come into the US Equity indices. We have experienced a bullish week and for now, this appears likely to extend into next week. What is interesting to note from a technical perspective is that we have now seen over the last week is a major structural break to the upside, albeit at different times with the Nasdaq leading the way, followed by the SP500 and then the DJ30. Despite all of the concerns about the global equity space, we are very close to all-time highs once more, these are definitely markets to watch over the coming weeks. Elsewhere in the global equity space, the FTSE has been the star performer and is currently trading very close to its all-time high around the 7790 level as we observe a fairly straight linear move to the upside from the 6852 lows back in March.

EURUSD

This week has seen USD bulls give back some of the territory they conquered over the past few weeks. At this stage, it looks like the move lower in the USD is a correction and will likely provide better levels to consider longs from in the near term. When observing this pullback, we can identify two significant levels of key resistance in EURUSD, firstly, around the 1.2072 and then the more important level of 1.2155, if the price gets that far. It is also worth noting that the 1.2155 level marked the significant breakout point of consolidation a few weeks back.

USDJPY

In contrast, the USDJPY has not really behaved like many other of the major dollar pairs, meaning both the dollar and the yen are both weak.  Looking at the chart below, we can see the consolidation between 108.61 and 110.04. So, the next step for this market is to be patient and wait for the breakout of either the upside level of 110.04, which is the higher probability trade or a structural failure back below the 108.61, either way, it could prove a decent trading opportunity.  However, it would take a move above 110.04 to confirm a resumption of the uptrend in this market.

GBPUSD

Cable is also looking vulnerable and the recent consolidation has taken on the appearance of a bear flag which, if correct, signals an extension lower. Sterling is also likely to remain vulnerable near-term following the BOE decision last week not to hike rates. Furthermore, the recent double top confirmation further highlights the potential for a continuation of the bearish technical outlook.

USDCHF

It might also be worth keeping an eye on the USDCHF market as well, which has this week traded back above parity at the 1.0000 level. It is also interesting to note that the EURCHF continues to hover below 1.2000, a level which the Swiss National Bank defended resolutely for so long until they removed the 1.2000 peg at 9am on the 15th Jan 2015. A break of this level to the upside any time soon would be significant and further highlight the bearish CHF outlook across the board.

GOLD

Gold has pulled away from its range base around $1303 as USD bullish pressure eases. Price actions suggest that the range based on $1303 is somewhat exposed, meaning a confirmed break below $1303 would represent a significant technical break for the yellow metal. If alternatively, gold continues to push higher next week, then we would need to consider the possibility of a move towards the top of the range around the $1357 level instead, however, a bit of patience right now is probably the wisest option.

Crude Oil

Crude oil has extended trend gains this week aided by Donald Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Iran nuclear deal. For now, the ability for this market to hold prices above the $70 level provides an overall bullish technical signal.  We all know the current OPEC and Non-OPEC agreement till December 2018, is designed to restrict the supply of oil on a global basis in order to push the price of oil higher.  The Saudis, we believe are looking for prices to push to the $80-$85 level so don’t be surprised if we see these prices before the end of the year.

US 10 Year Note

To conclude, this weekly round-up, we should look at what is happening with the US 10-Y note, which has largely consolidated over the last couple of weeks. With yields in the US breaking above the 3% level, we are likely to see the price of the 10-year note push lower at least in the short term. The key bear trigger again is a move below the April low of 118.95, this is a market to watch over the coming weeks.

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Forex Market Analysis

XAUUSD long term short signal

Monthly and Weekly charts essential for determining an intraday bias. In order to identify a bias, a thorough analysis must be done using as little analysis as possible. Simple is better when it comes to a long-term forecast (forecasting over a series of weeks or months).

Monthly Chart

This is an extremely bearish candlestick on the daily chart, a firm inverted hammer with excellent selling conditions on the Composite Index.

Weekly Chart

The weekly chart also shows some significant bearish sentiment ahead. Price is very near a pivot in time (red vertical line). More importantly, the 1326.24 value area is a natural middle harmonic, and XAUUSD has failed to trade above it on the current weekly chart. Additionally, the wedge that XAUUSD has been trading is becoming weak: the current price level in relation to both the Composite Index and the Composite Index and the RSI indicates a very high probability of that bottom wedge line being breached.

Near-term target: 1282.68 value area.

Long-term target of a return to the 1239.13 value area.

©Forex.Academy

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily Market overview: Currency Devaluation Game

 

News Events

President Trump accused China and Russia of depreciating their currencies, breaking from his own administration’s view that no major trading partners are currency manipulators.

Trump took to Twitter on Monday to declare that China and Russia are playing what he called a “currency devaluation game” at a time when the U.S. Federal Reserve is raising interest rates. “Not acceptable!’’ Trump wrote.

The attack added fuel to the brewing trade dispute between the U.S. and China and drew swift criticism from Russia, which the White House recently imposed sanctions on and collided with over Syria. The Bloomberg Dollar Index moved down to its lowest level since March 26 after Trump’s tweet, while Treasuries fluctuated.

On the other side, the release of China’s GDP is 6.8 % after the forecast which was 6.8% too.

Eyes will be on US building permits on 12:30 GMT

 

EUR/USD

On the daily chart, as shown, there’s a consolidation area which narrows with time until presently reached 1.2395

With a breakout of the channel from the low of October 2017 which the price has rejected

So we overview a retest to this area that will be critical as it decides whether to fall back again or it was a false break

Also, the pair’s near the lower trend line from the high of 2008 and the resistance 1.2515

 

 

On 4H chart, the price is at a crucial point as it hit the broken up channel along with lower trend line (as shown)

If there’s any rebound from these level, bears will be ready to attack

 

USD/JPY

On the daily chart, the price has accomplished a correction to the 38.2% Fibonacci level which is located at the same resistance level 107.8

Last February, the pair had broken the upper trend line from the low of 2011, maybe it has not enough potential to retest it now

The price has formed a very decisive continuing pattern (flag), that maintain the bearish bias

On 1H frame, the price broke the lower trend line which is considered as wedge too (reversal pattern)

 GOLD

On the daily chart, Gold is struggling to break through the resistance level 1362.4

As we see, there are many tops that couldn’t make some bullish noise

As the price is walking through a rectangle, there is a possible correction waving ahead. 

On 1H frame, the price broke the trend line that connected the higher lows,  then broke up the rising channel  rebounding from the resistance 1348.9.

 

© Forex.Academy

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Forex Market Analysis

Tit-for-tat weighs heavy on the markets

A difficult week
It has been another difficult week in the markets, and this has been primarily down to the difficulty in assessing what the trade standoff between the US

A difficult week
It has been another difficult week in the markets, and this has been primarily down to the difficulty in assessing what the trade standoff between the US

A difficult week

It has been another difficult week in the markets, and this has been primarily down to the difficulty in assessing what the trade standoff between the US and China mean for the markets. The week started off with the market taking fright as additional tariff threats were voiced by the US, leading to a sharp sell-off in equity markets. However, much of that rhetoric was rowed back on leading to a significant bounce back actually making pre-fright highs before the SP500 started to sell off again.  This simply means that there is no overriding directional bias in either direction making this market very choppy and difficult to trade.

 

Gold

As a result, the Gold market responded by initially strengthening due to the fear related to the equity story but then reversed those initial gains and now trades right in the middle of significant support and resistance levels which can be clearly seen from the chart below, these significant levels are $1,357 and $1,310, so all eyes will be on these levels over the coming days and weeks to see what is next for the yellow metal.

Oil

The Crude-Oil market responded to these major global developments by initially selling off but then after seeing a bit of erratic price action we continued to see a continuation to the down side, closing the week below the $62 level.  However, from a technical perspective, the situation regarding the crude oil market is an interesting one.  We can see from the chart below that we have been in a consistent up trend since mid-June 2017, reaching a high of $66 towards the end of Jan 2018.  Since this time, this market has clearly struggled to break the $66, creating a double top end of March.  So over the last two weeks, this market has bounced back to its lower trend line.  The next few days will be interesting to see whether the support level holds and we see another attack at the $66 level or will this support level break, and we see prices pushing down to a potential structural failure below the $60 level which would put major pressure on this market to the downside.  At this crucial point, it’s hard to see whether buyers or sellers will win out.

 

So just to recap, over the course of the last 5 trading days, US officials made very strong statements about the need for trade tariffs to be introduced only for US officials to then row back on some of its rhetoric, as a result, market nerves were calmed, and Monday’s fear related move was subsequently reversed. The S&P rallied and then retraced, and the gold and crude oil markets came off.

US Dollar

The USD, however, has been impacted by recent events but to a lesser degree. As you can see, from the chart below, the dollar index has been in a period of consolidation since mid-Jan.  These, unfortunately, for the time being, are the market conditions in which we are trading the USD. The two major prices to keep an eye out for over the coming days and weeks is the 99.880 to the up side and 88.416 to the down side.  A move in either direction would be significant for this market.

 

EURUSD

EURUSD continues to trade within a range. Today’s weaker NFP numbers perhaps suggest that the pair might move higher next week given the fact too that from a technical perspective, the pair is trading closer to the lower end of its range as can be seen from the chart below.

 

USDJPY

USDJPY has been firmer this week, however, watch the key pivotal resistance area next week around 108.20. This was the breach that confirmed a bearish range breakout back in February.

 

 

The US Dollar paired earlier gains during Friday’s London session after data showed the US economy adding new jobs at less than half the pace economists had expected for the March month. The important Non-Farm Payrolls figure grew by just 103,000 during the recent month, which is down from 313,000 in February and far below the economist consensus for a reading of 188,000.

Separately, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% for the month when markets had been looking for a 10-basis point fall to 4.0%. Household incomes grew by 0.3% during the recent month, which is up from the 0.1% seen in February and in line with the consensus forecast of economists.

 

Price action largely noted limited volume in the week leading up the non-farm payroll figure but saw initial volatile swings before the USD began to weaken over the course of Friday afternoon and evening.

Trade of the week – Long GBP/USD

With the US caught up with trade issues with China causing confusion among other countries and added uncertainty across the US Dollar Forex Pairs, perhaps the best technical trade may look GBP support with better than forecast UK economic data.

With the GBP showing strength over the USD in April for the last 13 consecutive years running, speculators are now looking at this trend for the best potential buying opportunity. With good news for the pound with UK PMI slightly higher than expectations, Friday trading is seeing the pound trade up with a touch and bounce from the greater bullish trendline of 2017. The discussion now seems to favour the pound is seemingly defying the expectations of Brexit doom.

 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily Abstract – 8th February 2018

Hot Topics:

  • NZD – RBNZ monetary policy meeting maintains the interest rate at 1.75 percent.
  • USOIL – Plunges after inventories data release.
  • GOLD – Falls driven by the dollar appreciation.

 

Main currencies daily performance.

 

NZD – RBNZ monetary policy meeting maintains the interest rate at 1.75 percent.

The RBNZ Monetary Policy Decision has decided to maintain the interest rate at 1.75%. In their statement, they say: “Equity markets have been strong, although volatility has increased recently”. Concerning the accommodative policy, RBNZ adds “Monetary policy remains easy, but is gradually becoming less stimulatory”. The members see “The growth profile is weaker in the near term, but stronger in the medium term”. Inflation in December “was lower than expected at 1.6%, due to weakness in manufactured goods”. The RBNZ statement ends signalling that “Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period, but policy may need to adjust accordingly”.

Technically the Kiwi maintains the bearish bias, as has been our central vision. We still expect continuity in the falls to the area of 0.71064 and 0.70634, an area from where we could begin to be alerted to evaluate potential bullish positions. For the moment we stay out of this pair.

NZD-USD hourly Chart ( Click image to enlarge)

USOIL – Plunges after inventories data release.

After the publication of the crude oil inventory data (1.895M actual vs estimated 3.189M), crude oil began to accelerate the bearish movement that has been developing since last week where we see a pattern of bullish failure. This fall could be in 5 waves; our conservative objective is at $59.75.

OIL WTI hourly Chart ( Click image to enlarge)

GOLD – Falls driven by the dollar appreciation.

Given the strength of the dollar, we expect more falls in gold. The zone that we propose as a control zone is in the bullish guideline which could act as a dynamic support level at $1251.26. We will be observing the development of the price movements to evaluate long-term bullish incorporations.

– First key support $1301.27.

– Second key support $1285.98.

Gold Daily Chart ( Click image to enlarge)