Tag: GBPUSD

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, March 13 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Market Tosses in Profits & Losses Amid Coronavirus! 

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar gained traction on Thursday, with the ICE Dollar Index climbing 1.0% on the day to 97.50. The U.S. official data showed that producer prices declined 0.6% on month in February (-0.1% expected), and initial jobless claims fell to 211,000 in the week ended March 7 (220,000 expected).

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar gained traction on Thursday, with the ICE Dollar Index climbing 1.0% on the day to 97.50. The U.S. official data showed that producer prices declined 0.6% on month in February (-0.1% expected), and initial jobless claims fell to 211,000 in the week ended March 7 (220,000 expected).

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar gained traction on Thursday, with the ICE Dollar Index climbing 1.0% on the day to 97.50. The U.S. official data showed that producer prices declined 0.6% on month in February (-0.1% expected), and initial jobless claims fell to 211,000 in the week ended March 7 (220,000 expected).

Later today, March University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary reading, 95.0 expected) will be reported.

U.S. official data showed that producer prices declined 0.6% on month in February (-0.1% expected), and initial jobless claims fell to 211,000 in the week ended March 7 (220,000 expected).

Later today, March University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary reading, 95.0 expected) will be reported.

Economic Events to Watch Today    

 

Economic Calendar by TradingView

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD lost 0.8% to 1.1181. The European Central Bank expanded its asset purchase program by EUR120 billion while keeping its key interest rates unchanged. ECB President Christine Lagarde said, “the spread of the coronavirus Covid-19 has been a major shock to the growth prospects of the global economy and the euro areas economy, and it has heightened market volatility”.

The central bank kept rates unchanged on Thursday and raised its asset purchase program by EUR120B. They introduced a new program of cheap loans that would necessarily pay banks up to 0.75% to give to small businesses. However, the EUR traders were not impressed, as indicated by the long-tail (seller exhaustion) attached to Thursday’s candle. 

It should be noted that the 3-month euro-dollar and dollar-yen swap spreads had widened to levels last seen in 2017 on Thursday. Notably, spreads widened by nearly 40 basis points, the most significant single-day increase since December 2008, highlighting stress in the dollar funding markets. Whereas, the Federal Reserve injected liquidity by $1.5 billion. As a result, the credit markets could normalize ahead of the weekend.

The German Federal Statistical Office will report final readings of February CPI (+1.7% on-year expected). France’s INSEE will post final readings of February CPI (+1.4% on-year expected).



Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0654
  • S2 1.0918
  • S3 1.1045

Pivot Point 1.1182

  • R1 1.1309
  • R2 1.1447
  • R3 1.1711

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has traded mostly lower to test the double bottom support level of 1.1095 level. The EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1195, and it’s forming a lower-lows pattern on the 4-hour chart, which mostly drives a continuation of a selling trend. On the lower side, a continuation of a bearish bias can extend sell-off until 1.1100 and 1.1095. While the bullish breakout of 1.1350 can drive more buying until 1.1454 area. Consider staying bullish over 1.1182 and bearish below the same level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD plunged 1.9% to 1.2576, the lowest level since last October. Sterling fell against the U.S. dollar despite weaker than expected U.S. economic events. The U.S. official data showed that producer prices declined 0.6% on month in February (-0.1% expected), and initial jobless claims fell to 211,000 in the week ended March 7 (220,000 expected).

At the U.K. front, there are fewer chances that the British PM Johnson will announce any significant stimulus after the BOE joined the budgetary push to defeat the virus the previous day. However, Traders should wait for the final announcement because we all know that the Tory leader is famous for providing surprises.

Apart from the coronavirus headlines, traders will likely pay a little attention to the U.S. data. However, the Bank Of England minutes could offer a robust near-term direction after the central bank marked a surprise cut during the week. “Minutes are released at noon GMT from MPC’s “special” March 10 meeting, where they decided to coordinate the inter-meeting easing package announced Wednesday.

Later in the day, the U.S. Labor Department will release the February import price index (-1.0% expected). The University of Michigan will publish its Consumer Sentiment Index for March (95.0 expected).



Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2523
  • S2 1.2695
  • S3 1.2758

Pivot Point 1.2867

  • R1 1.293
  • R2 1.3039
  • R3 1.3211

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the GBP/USD continues to trade in a bearish mode due to the BOE rate cut decision. The GBP/USD has dropped further after violating the immediate support level of 1.2750, which is now working as a resistance. The sell-off in the GBP/USD was so solid that it’s pricing fell down to 1.2506 level which is now working as a support. 

Recently, the GBP/USD has closed a bullish candle that can drive buying in the GBP/USD, and it may lead its prices higher towards 1.2685 level. The MACD is consistently forming bearish histograms below zero, supporting the selling trend in the GBP/USD pair, which is why we should consider selling below 1.2825 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

During the early Asian session, the USD/JPY currency pair flashing green but dropped from the session highs, because the Japanese yen is finding bids, mainly due to the sharp decline in the U.S. stock futures. At the press time, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 105.41 and consolidates in the range between the 104.51 – 106.03. However, the pair dropped from 105.20 to 104.68 in the 60 minutes to 01:30 UTC and was last seen trading around 104.89. 

The futures Wall Street’s benchmark equity index S&P 500 are currently down 1.64 percent, having started the Asian session on a relatively less risk-off note. 

Whereas, the global equities and the U.S. stock markets are expected to trade red on Friday. In the time being, the Asian equities are flashing red with Japan’s Nikkei reporting a 9% drop. 

The BOJ offered a liquidity injection of 500 billion yen early Friday, but so far, but that has failed to improve the risk sentiment and weaken the Japanese yen.



Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 99.41
  • S2 102.11
  • S3 103.7

Pivot Point 104.81

  • R1 106.4
  • R2 107.51
  • R3 110.21

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 105.800 and has already bounced off a double bottom support level of 104.100. Closing of 4-hour candle above this level has confirmed the chances of further buying in the pair. The recent candles on the 4-hour chart are three white soldiers who are bullish nature and typically drive buying in the market. 

The immediate resistance that USD/JPY can face is around 106.150 level, and violation of this can extend more buying until 107.450 marks. On the lower side, support stays around 104. All the best for today!  

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, March 12 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for ECB Interest Rate Decision! 

The U.S. dollar strengthened versus its major peers for a second straight session, with the ICE Dollar Index bouncing 0.2% on the day to 96.60. The European Central Bank will announce its key policy rates (deposit facility rate at -0.5% expected). The European Commission will report January industrial production (+1.5% on month expected). During the U.S. session, the U.S. Labor Department will release February PPI (+1.8% on-year expected), and initial jobless claims in the week ended March 7 (220,000 expected).

The U.S. dollar strengthened versus its major peers for a second straight session, with the ICE Dollar Index bouncing 0.2% on the day to 96.60. The European Central Bank will announce its key policy rates (deposit facility rate at -0.5% expected). The European Commission will report January industrial production (+1.5% on month expected). During the U.S. session, the U.S. Labor Department will release February PPI (+1.8% on-year expected), and initial jobless claims in the week ended March 7 (220,000 expected).

The U.S. dollar strengthened versus its major peers for a second straight session, with the ICE Dollar Index bouncing 0.2% on the day to 96.60. The European Central Bank will announce its key policy rates (deposit facility rate at -0.5% expected). The European Commission will report January industrial production (+1.5% on month expected). During the U.S. session, the U.S. Labor Department will release February PPI (+1.8% on-year expected), and initial jobless claims in the week ended March 7 (220,000 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today   

  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD fell 0.2% to 1.1263. It is reported that the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told European Union leaders that Europe is facing a major economic shock, and that ECB is looking at all of its tools for the monetary policy meeting due later today.

There are so high chances of a slowdown in the Eurozone, especially in Germany, in the wake of dangerous coronavirus. So, possibly the European Central Bank will go with another stimulus measure on Thursday to soften the economic fallout, which may hurt the shared currency very well. 

The European Central Bank will announce its key policy rates (deposit facility rate at -0.5% expected). The European Commission will report January industrial production (+1.5% on month expected).

Considering the slowdown in the economy, the markets are expecting a cut in the deposit rate, which currently stands at -0.5%. Therefore, the EUR could see a sharp rise if the central bank keeps rates unchanged. The traders are keenly awaiting the ECB rate decision to take new directions. The Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production m/m, Italian 10-y Bond Auction also will be key to watch.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.106
  • S2 1.1176
  • S3 1.1218

Pivot Point 1.1293

  • R1 1.1335
  • R2 1.1409
  • R3 1.1526

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with a mixed bias around 1.1305 on Thursday as it seems to extend the bearish trend even after completing the 38.2%% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels around 1.1350 and 1.1275.  

The EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1305, and it’s forming lowers low pattern on the 4-hour chart, which mostly drives a continuation of a selling trend. On the lower side, a continuation of a selling bias can extend sell-off until 1.1200 and 1.1095. While the bullish breakout of 1.1350 can drive more buying until 1.1454 area. Consider staying bullish over 1.1275 and bearish below the same level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD dropped 0.7% to 1.2817. The Bank of England slashed its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 0.25% after a special meeting, citing economic shock from the coronavirus. On the other hand, official data showed that the U.K.’s GDP growth was flat on month in January (+0.2% estimated), and industrial production declined 0.1% in February (+0.3% expected).

Whereas, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields failed to continue the previous day’s run-up, current down by 8-basis points (bps) to 0.67%.

The U.K. Office for National Statistics will report January monthly GDP (+0.2% on month expected), industrial production (+0.3% on month expected), manufacturing production (+0.2% on month expected) and trade balance (356 million pounds deficit projected). 

At the U.K. front, there are fewer chances that the British PM Johnson will announce any major stimulus after the BOE joined the budgetary push to defeat the virus the previous day. However, Traders should wait for the final announcement because we all know that the Tory leader is famous for providing surprises.

Looking forward, the US PPI and Jobless Claims will likely entertain the momentum traders. The overall PPI was likely lower due to the weakening in energy prices, similar to the pattern in the CPI (TD -0.2%). The core measures were probably moderately weak as well after the above-trend readings in January.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2523
  • S2 1.2695
  • S3 1.2758

Pivot Point 1.2867

  • R1 1.293
  • R2 1.3039
  • R3 1.3211

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Thursday, the GBP/USD continues to trade in a bearish mode due to the BOE rate cut decision. The GBP/USD has dropped further after violating the immediate support level of 1.2850, which is now working as a resistance. 

Continuation of a selling trend can lead the GBP/USD prices towards 1.2740 and 1.2720. On the higher side, the GBP/USD is likely to trade bullish until 1.2840 level, and bullish breakout of which may drive further buying until 1.2910 level. The MACD is consistently forming bearish histograms below zero, supporting the selling trend in the GBP/USD pair, which is why we should consider selling below 1.2825 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the bearish track and dropped below the 104.00, mainly due to a sharp decline in the equity market. U.S. President Donald Trump failed to ease the fears about intensifying coronavirus slowdown in the global economy, which later boosted the safe-haven Japanese yen and sent the USD/JPY pair lower near the 103.30. As of writing, the safe haven pair is trading at 107.30 and consolidates in the range between the 103.09 – 104.81.

Trump said during his speech that the U.S. would ban all flights from Europe to the U.S. for the next 30 days effective Friday at midnight. While also says that travel bans will not apply to the U.K., He said that the U.S. would take emergency action to provide financial relief for workers who are ill, hospitalized, or caring for others due to coronavirus. Whereas also says that we will provide capital and liquidity to the small firms which are affected by the coronavirus, provide low-interest loans as well. Trump promised to provide $200 billion in additional liquidity in the fight against coronavirus. 

As we already mentioned that the investors were expecting a more potent stimulus and sold risk after Trump’s speech. The S&P 500 futures, which traded 0.5% lower ahead of President’s address, are now reporting a 2.4% decline. Meanwhile, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury registering losses by 5-basis points at 0.76%. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 99.41
  • S2 102.11
  • S3 103.7

Pivot Point 104.81

  • R1 106.4
  • R2 107.51
  • R3 110.21

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 103.800 and has already violated the double bottom support level of 104.100. Closing of 4-hour candle below this level confirms the chances of further selling in the pair. The recent candle on the 4-hour chart is bearish engulfing in nature as it’s covering the full body of the precious candle, and it signifies the chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. 

Below 104.250, the selling trend continuation can lead the USD/JPY prices towards 101.670, whereas, further buying over 104.250 can lead the USD/JPY to 106.250 area.

All the best for today!  

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, March 11 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Who’s Up for U.S. Inflation Rate? 

On the forex front, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index rebounded 1.7% on the day to 96.45, snapping a three-day losing streak, as investors anticipated that fiscal stimulus from the U.S. government would limit the scope for interest rates cut. The U.S. Labor Department will report February CPI (+2.2% expected). The Treasury will post the February monthly budget statement (236.8 billion dollars deficit expected). Here’s an update on the technical side of the market. 

On the forex front, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index rebounded 1.7% on the day to 96.45, snapping a three-day losing streak, as investors anticipated that fiscal stimulus from the U.S. government would limit the scope for interest rates cut. The U.S. Labor Department will report February CPI (+2.2% expected). The Treasury will post the February monthly budget statement (236.8 billion dollars deficit expected). Here’s an update on the technical side of the market. 

On the forex front, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index rebounded 1.7% on the day to 96.45, snapping a three-day losing streak, as investors anticipated that fiscal stimulus from the U.S. government would limit the scope for interest rates cut. The U.S. Labor Department will report February CPI (+2.2% expected). The Treasury will post the February monthly budget statement (236.8 billion dollars deficit expected). Here’s an update on the technical side of the market. 

Economic Events to Watch Today   

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD retreated 1.2% to 1.1312. Most of the movement in the EUR/USD is triggered in the wake of low impact economic events. Regarding the U.S. economic data, the Small Business Optimism Index by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) rose to 104.5 in February (102.8 expected).

Euro also slipped in the wake of the bearish stock market. The European stocks were broadly lower, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index declining 1.1%. Germany’s DAX slid 1.4%, France’s CAC lost 1.5%, and the U.K.’s U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down 0.1%.

Overall, the level of uncertainty rose in Italy, where 16 million people in Lombardy and different sections of the north are presently below quarantine, there were 133 life losses announced on Sunday, drawing the sum to 366. More than 7,000 people in the country have been verified to have the disease. 

There are so high chances of a slowdown in the Eurozone, especially in Germany, in the wake of dangerous coronavirus. So, possibly the European Central Bank will go with another stimulus measure on Thursday in order to soften the economic fallout, which may hurt the shared currency very well. 

Looking forward, the traders will keep their eyes on the incoming virus updates and its impact on the risk sentiment and dollar trades ahead of the US CPI data, which is scheduled to release later today at 1230 GMT.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.107
  • S2 1.1197
  • S3 1.1245

Pivot Point 1.1323

  • R1 1.1371
  • R2 1.145
  • R3 1.1576

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD is trading with a mixed bias around 1.1315. The EUR/USD seems to extend the bearish trend in the wake of completing the 38.2%% and 50% Fibonacci extension level, out of which 38.2% has already been achieved until 1.1280. 

At the moment, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1315, and a bullish breakout of 1.1350 resistance level can extend buying until 1.1458 level. On the lower side, the EUR/USD may find support around 1.1280, and bearish breakout of 1.1280 can extend sell-off until 1.1238. The RSI and MACD are in the buying zone as the MACD’s histograms are over zero, the bullish zone. Consider taking buy trades above 1.1280.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD fell 1.7% at 1.2907. Later today, the U.K.’s U.K.’s January GDP data (+0.2% on month expected) and February industrial production (+0.3% on month estimated) will be released. The U.S. official data revealed that the economy added 273,000 non-farm payrolls in February (+175,000 expected), and the jobless rate dropped to 3.5% (3.6% expected). Average hourly earnings were up 0.3% on the month (as expected). 

January trade deficit was posted at US$45.3 billion (US$46.2 billion expected), and wholesale inventories (final reading) fell 0.4% on the month (-0.2% expected). Despite mixed economic events, the U.S. dollar is getting weaker and driving the GBP/USD pair higher. 

Whereas, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields failed to continue the previous day’s run-up, current down by 8-basis points (bps) to 0.67%.

The U.K. Office for National Statistics will report January monthly GDP (+0.2% on month expected), industrial production (+0.3% on month expected), manufacturing production (+0.2% on month expected) and trade balance (356 million pounds deficit expected).

Whereas, Chancellor Rishi Sunak is scheduled to announce a significant relief to the U.K. business houses and will try his hands to keep entrepreneurs attached to Britain after the actual Brexit (which may lose the London’s powerhouse status). 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.252
  • S2 1.2733
  • S3 1.281

Pivot Point 1.2945

  • R1 1.3023
  • R2 1.3158
  • R3 1.337

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has triggered a dramatic sell-off in the wake of stronger dollar and weakness in Sterling as the pair slipped to test 1.2850. Continuation of a selling trend can lead the GBP/USD prices towards 1.2740, but the way Cable has closed a Doji candle above 1.2850, it seems to trigger a bullish reversal. 

On the higher side, the GBP/USD is likely to trade bullish until 1.3020 level, and breakout of which may drive further buying until 1.3100 level. The MACD is consistently forming bearish histograms below zero, supporting the selling trend in the GBP/USD pair. Let’s consider buying over 1.2925. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and dropped below the 105.00 level, mainly due to equity markets, which turned lower. At the press time, the USD/JPY is trading at 104.90 and consolidates in the range between the 104.11 – 105.67.

The hopes of fiscal stimulus by the Trump administration boosted investors’ appetite for riskier assets on Tuesday, which allowed the U.S. Treasury bond yields to recover sharply from historic lows and helped revive the USD demand. But as of now, the delay in the incentive package offered by U.S. President Donald Trump to diminish the economic influence of the coronavirus epidemic, which he had promised on Tuesday also weighing on the greenback and risk-tone.

The safe-haven flows were further strengthened by a fresh drop in the U.S. equity futures and the U.S. bond yields, which kept the USD bulls on the defensive and turned out to be one of the key factors exerting some pressure on the pair.

Whereas the bearish bias remained cushioned for now, because investors now seemed unwilling to place any aggressive bets, instead preferred to wait on the sidelines ahead of the latest U.S. inflation figures and the U.S. budget for fiscal 2021.

The U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will testify on the Proposed the Fiscal Year 2021 Budget, which might provide fresh details about the administration’s new policies.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 99.41
  • S2 102.11
  • S3 103.7

Pivot Point 104.81

  • R1 106.4
  • R2 107.51
  • R3 110.21

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 104.800, testing the bearish trendline resistance level at 105.600. The increased reduced demand for safe-haven assets is driving strong bullish correction in the USD/JPY currency pairs. The USD/JPY has closed two consecutive selling candles, which are followed by the bullish engulfing candle on the 4-hour timeframe, and these are suggesting odds of selling in the USD/JPY currency pair. Below 104.250, the selling trend continuation can lead the USD/JPY prices towards 101.670, whereas, further buying over 104.250 can lead the USD/JPY to 106.250 area.

All the best for today!  

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, March 10 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Choppy Trading In Play! 

The U.S. Dollar Index sank 0.9% on the day to 95.07, down for a third straight session. Investors were speculating a steep cut in U.S. interest rates, though the expectations retreated as President Donald Trump announced that he would announce “very dramatic” actions to support the economy. The Dollar Index rebounded to 95.33. The European Commission will post final readings of 4Q GDP (+0.9% on-year expected).

The U.S. Dollar Index sank 0.9% on the day to 95.07, down for a third straight session. Investors were speculating a steep cut in U.S. interest rates, though the expectations retreated as President Donald Trump announced that he would announce “very dramatic” actions to support the economy. The Dollar Index rebounded to 95.33. The European Commission will post final readings of 4Q GDP (+0.9% on-year expected).

The U.S. Dollar Index sank 0.9% on the day to 95.07, down for a third straight session. Investors were speculating a steep cut in U.S. interest rates, though the expectations retreated as President Donald Trump announced that he would announce “very dramatic” actions to support the economy. The Dollar Index rebounded to 95.33. The European Commission will post final readings of 4Q GDP (+0.9% on-year expected).

France’s INSEE will report January industrial production (+1.8% on month expected) and manufacturing production (+1.7% on month expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD rose 1.1% to 1.1410. Official data showed that German industrial production grew 3.0% on month in January (+1.7% expected). The coronavirus breaks in China and South Korea seem to be lagging, as countries outside in the world embrace drastic steps to try and stamp out the virus. 

In Italy, where 16 million people in Lombardy and different sections of the north are presently below quarantine, there were 133 life losses announced on Sunday, drawing the sum to 366. More than 7,000 people in the country have been verified to have the disease. 

In Iran, there were 49 new deaths. Some 194 people have now expired from COVID-19 there. Although the latest numbers from China and South Korea suggest, the virus seems to be diminishing in northeast Asia.

The ECB is expecting to deliver a rate cut to control the economic fallout from the deadly coronavirus outbreak. Moreover, an unexpectedly bigger decline in the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence for March, a lead indicator, also continues to burdening the EUR currency.

Looking forward, the trader’s eyes remain on the Eurozone final GDP while the general market bias and USD dynamics will proceed to play a pivotal role.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.1196
  • S2 1.1315
  • S3 1.1384

Pivot Point 1.1434

  • R1 1.1503
  • R2 1.1553
  • R3 1.1672

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias around 1.1445. The EUR/USD seems to extend the bullish trend in the wake of completing the 161.8% and 261.8% Fibonacci extension level, out of which 161.8% has already been achieved until 1.1258. 

At the moment, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1458, and bullish breakout of this level can extend buying until 1.1610 level. On the lower side, the EUR/USD may find support around 1.1400 and 1.1296. The RSI and MACD are in the buying zone as the MACD’s histograms are over zero, the bullish zone. Consider taking buy trades above 1.1380.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD gained 0.3% at 1.3083.to hit its highest mark in a week to the greenback. This came after the forecasts waned for an urgent Bank of England rate cut to follow this week’s emergency movement from the U.S. Federal Reserve to accommodate coronavirus damage. 

The U.S. official data revealed that the economy added 273,000 non-farm payrolls in February (+175,000 expected), and the jobless rate dropped to 3.5% (3.6% expected). Average hourly earnings were up 0.3% on the month (as expected). 

January trade deficit was posted at US$45.3 billion (US$46.2 billion expected), and wholesale inventories (final reading) fell 0.4% on the month (-0.2% expected). Despite mixed economic events, the U.S. dollar is getting weaker and driving the GBP/USD pair higher. 

The GBP/USD currency pair buyers are still hopeful because the BBC reports a bumper £5billion boost for British exports by the first post-Brexit budget, which is scheduled to release on Wednesday. Chancellor Rishi Sunak will also announce supportive news for salaried employees in his first budget.

Looking ahead, due to the few economic data/events on the economic calendar, all traders keep their eyes on COVID-19/Brexit headlines for taking fresh directions.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.278
  • S2 1.2946
  • S3 1.3023

Pivot Point 1.3111

  • R1 1.3188
  • R2 1.3277
  • R3 1.3443

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is showing some severe bullish moves in the wake of a weaker dollar and strong Sterling. The GBP/USD soars to trade around 1.3060 and continuation of a bullish trend can extend buying until 1.3160 and even higher. The GBP/USD has formed a solid green candle on the 4-hour timeframe, which may help drive further buying in the Sterling. 

The MACD is consistently forming bullish histograms over zero points, supporting the buying trend in the GBP/USD pair. Let’s consider buying over 1.3025. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair stops its bearish rally and hit the high of 105.00 mainly due to risk sentiment improved in the wake of U.S. stimulus expectations. The hopes of the U.S. stimulus put a bid on the U.S. equity futures, treasury yields. 

At the press time, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 104.78 and consolidates in the range between the 102.02 – 105.05. The U.S. Vice President Mike Pence took U-turn from his Friday’s comments and signaling a lack of enough testing kits in the labs.

The USD/JPY currency pair recovered from the lowest since late-2016 mainly because U.S. President Donald Trump’s suggested to ‘major’ economic measures in order to control coronavirus (COVID-19) triggered the risk-on.

Looking forward, traders are now keeping their eyes on the U.S. President Trump’s real means to tame the adverse implications of the virus. However, the significant risk recovery could only occur if there is news of any cures.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 98.73
  • S2 100.42
  • S3 101.35

Pivot Point 102.12

  • R1 103.05
  • R2 103.81
  • R3 105.5

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 104.200, testing the bearish channel, which supported the Japanese yen at 104.400. The increased reduced demand for safe-haven assets is driving strong bullish correction in the USD/JPY currency pairs. 

The USD/JPY has closed two consecutive bullish candles, which are followed by the bearish breakout setup and suggesting odds of further bullish bias until 104.650. 

Below 104.550, the selling trend continuation can lead the USD/JPY prices towards 101.670 whereas, further buying over 104.550 can lead the USD/JPY to 106.250 area

All the best for today!  

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, March 06 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Who’s Up for the U.S. Nonfarm Payroll? 

On the forex front, the U.S. dollars weakened further against its major peers on Thursday, with the ICE Dollar Index dropping 0.8% on the day to a two-month low of 96.60. The German Federal Statistical Office will report January factory orders (+1.3% on month expected). France’s INSEE will post the January trade balance (4.8 billion euros deficit expected).

On the forex front, the U.S. dollars weakened further against its major peers on Thursday, with the ICE Dollar Index dropping 0.8% on the day to a two-month low of 96.60. The German Federal Statistical Office will report January factory orders (+1.3% on month expected). France’s INSEE will post the January trade balance (4.8 billion euros deficit expected).

On the forex front, the U.S. dollars weakened further against its major peers on Thursday, with the ICE Dollar Index dropping 0.8% on the day to a two-month low of 96.60. The German Federal Statistical Office will report January factory orders (+1.3% on month expected). France’s INSEE will post the January trade balance (4.8 billion euros deficit expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD jumped 0.8% to 1.1227. Later today, German factory orders for January will be released (+1.3% on month expected). The European Commission warned that France and Italy could fall into a technical recession, two-quarters of economic contraction, amid coronavirus impacts. On the other hand, official data showed that the eurozone’s retail sales grew 0.6% on month in January, and German retail sales were up 0.9%, both as expected.

If the risk-on sentiment continues to boost, the selling interest around the EUR could increase. If the OPEC meeting strengthens an oil price bounce, the risk sentiment will likely increase, pushing the EUR currency and other safe-haven currencies lower. The pair is currently sidelined just below 1.1140.

Besides this, the currency pair will likely take cues from the German Federal Statistical Office will report January factory orders (+1.3% on month expected). France’s INSEE will post the January trade balance (4.8 billion euros deficit expected). The doors remain open for EUR/USD to extend gains toward the next significant resistance near 1.1282 (July 19, 2019 high). 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0949
  • S2 1.1075
  • S3 1.1156

Pivot Point 1.12

  • R1 1.1281
  • R2 1.1326
  • R3 1.1451

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Friday, the EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias around 1.1245. The EUR/USD may drop to complete the bearish retracement. On the lower side, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is likely to support the EUR/USD at 1.1180, and violation of this level can drive more selling until 1.1155 which marks the 61.8% Fibonacci level. On the higher side, the bullish breakout 1.1245 can lead EUR/USD prices further higher towards 1.1300 and 1.1335. The RSI and MACD are in the buying zone as the MACD’s histograms are over zero, the bullish zone. Consider taking buy trades above 1.1230.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD climbed 0.6% at 1.2951 to hit its highest mark in a week to the greenback. This came after the forecasts waned for an urgent Bank of England rate cut to follow this week’s emergency movement from the U.S. Federal Reserve to accommodate coronavirus damage. 

The GBP/USD currency pair may come under pressure in Europe if the pair do not cross the key hurdle. On the data front, the focus will be on the U.K. Halifax House Prices and the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report. 

At the Brexit front, the EU-UK Brexit negotiators complete their first round of trade talks. However, no conclusion has been received so far, while fisheries and the E.U. jurisdiction continue to remain as the key hurdles.

At the coronavirus front, the deadly virus continues to spread outside China, with California recently declaring a state of emergency. However, the global policymakers struggle to control the same, and it seems to have helped the risk-tone sentiment. As in result, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields remain positive above 1%, whereas stocks in Asia are also positive by the press time.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2631
  • S2 1.2734
  • S3 1.28

Pivot Point 1.2837

  • R1 1.2903
  • R2 1.294
  • R3 1.3043

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the GBP/USD is trading with bullish bias after having violated the horizontal resistance level of 1.2885, and it’s heading towards the next target level of 1.3000, which is also a psychological resistance level for GBP/USD. 

The GBP/USD’s immediate support is likely to be found around 1.2917, and below this level, the GBP/USD may aim for the 1.2860 area. The MACD and RSI are in the buying zone, supporting the bullish bias for the GBP/USD. Let’s look for long positions above 1.2937 today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and trading below the 106.00 level mainly due to the on-going risk-off market sentiment in the wake of Coronavirus intensifying fears. As well as, the currency pair hit the 6-months lows level. For now, the currency pair is currently trading at 105.94 and consolidates in the range between the 105.75 – 106.34.

Moreover, the U.S. yields have recovered slightly from the lows seen after the U.S. Fed’s rate cut. The 2-year yield is currently trading at 0.68%, representing a seven basis point gain on the overnight low of 0.61%, and the 10-year yield has recovered to 0.98% from $0.91%. 

The currency pair continued to its recent heavy losses and still trading under some heavy selling pressure for the 2nd-consecutive session on Friday.  

The reason behind all negative factors could be the market’s fear of coronavirus-led economic pessimism. Whereas, the latest numbers from the U.S., China, and South Korea suggested that the deadly virus continues to spread despite the governments’ struggles.

As in result, the safe-haven demand for the yen has weakened in Asia. As we already mentioned that the USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 107.27, representing a 0.17% gain on the day, having hit a high of 107.52 a few minutes before press time. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 109.46
  • R2: 107.99
  • R1: 107.08

Pivot Point 106.52

  • S1: 105.61
  • S2: 105.06
  • S3: 103.59

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 105.900, breaking below the sideways trading range of 108.500 to 107.100 in the wake of safe-haven appeal. The pair is now in the oversold zone, but the market isn’t moving much as investors seem to wait for the NFP figures, which are coming out during the U.S. session.  

The USD/JPY has formed a Doji pattern near 105.613, and the violation of this could trigger further selling off until 104.300. We need to pay attention to the USD/JPY as the closing of candlesticks above 105.613 level can provide us with buying trade with a take profit of around 107. 

All the best for today! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, March 02– Top Trade Setups In Forex – Buckle up for Series of Manufacturing PMI 

Earlier today, during the Asian trading hours, EUR/USD extended its rally to 1.1056, and GBP/USD edged up to 1.2826 as traders seem to do profit-taking in the Greenback.

Earlier today, during the Asian trading hours, EUR/USD extended its rally to 1.1056, and GBP/USD edged up to 1.2826 as traders seem to do profit-taking in the Greenback.

Earlier today, during the Asian trading hours, EUR/USD extended its rally to 1.1056, and GBP/USD edged up to 1.2826 as traders seem to do profit-taking in the Greenback.

The eyes now will remain on the research firm Markit will publish final readings of February Manufacturing PMI for the eurozone (49.1 expected), Germany (47.8 expected), France (49.6 expected), the U.K. (51.9 expected) and the U.S. (50.8 expected). The Bank of England will release the number of mortgage approvals in January (68,000 expected) and the M4 money supply.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD rose 0.2% to 1.1026. Official data showed that Germany’s jobless rate was steady at 5.0% in January, and CPI grew 1.7% on year in February, both as expected.

The dollar has traded near a three-month high against the Euro as worries over the outbreak of Coronavirus has driven sharp volatility in the market, mostly driving dollar prices higher. The Euro has tried to rally higher during the Asian trading session on Monday but continues to encounter resistance above. 

The European stocks were also deep in the red, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index falling a further 3.5%. Germany’s DAX dropped 3.9%, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 lost 3.2%, and France’s CAC was down 3.4%.

The eyes will remain on the final readings of February Manufacturing PMI for the eurozone (49.1 expected), Germany (47.8 expected), France (49.6 expected), the U.K. (51.9 expected), and the U.S. (50.8 expected). The U.S. Commerce Department will report construction spending in January (+0.6% on month expected). The Institute for Supply Management will post its manufacturing index for February (50.5 expected).

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.092
  • S2 1.0842
  • S3 1.0799

Pivot Point 1.0963

  • R1 1.1041
  • R2 1.1084
  • R3 1.1162

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading bullish near 1.1116, as the pair seems to go further higher after violating double top resistance at 1.1097. Chances of further buying in the EUR/USD remains pretty high until 1.1140 and 1.1185. The pair may find immediate support around 1.1095, which is mostly extended horizontal support level. The MACD and RSI still stay on the bullish side and are signaling odds of more buying in the pair. The EUR/USD may find resistance around 1.1140 and 1.1185, so let’s look for bullish trends above 1.1085.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD dropped 0.5% at 1.2821, the lowest level since mid-October last year. The U.K. government is expected to publish a negotiating mandate for the future relationship with the European Union. 

The outbreak of the Coronavirus has directed some traders to think central banks will be required to go after dovish monetary policy to support the economy against the potential threat of a coronavirus. The Sterling is still trading with a bearish bias as the interest rate cut sentiment from 0.75% to 0.50% remains pretty solid. 

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Tories succeeded December’s election, extending his hold on parliament and pushing some Brexit risk, the Sterling was trading near 83 pence per Euro, and it also gained some support against the U.S. dollar.

The Bank of England will release the number of mortgage approvals in January (68,000 expected) and the M4 money supply.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 1.3209
  • R2: 1.3015
  • R1: 1.2916
  • Pivot Point 1.2821
  • S1: 1.2722
  • S2: 1.2627
  • S3: 1.2432

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD continues trading with a bearish bias, breaking out of a narrow trading range of 1.2980 – 1.2880. On the 4-hour chart, the Cable has formed violated the descending triangle pattern, which was supporting the Sterling around 1.2880. 

It’s was one of the most crucial trading levels, and violation of this has further open room for selling until 1.2755 area. Below this level, the GBP/USD has the potential to go after the 1.2660 area. The MACD and RSI are holding in the selling zone, supporting bearish bias for the GBP/USD pair. Let’s look for selling trades below 1.2966 and bullish above the same level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY rebounded to 109.30. This morning, government data showed that Japan’s fourth-quarter capital spending declined 3.5% on year (-2.6% expected). The USD/JPY extended its decline to 109.30. This morning, government data showed that Japan’s jobless rate rose to 2.4% in January (steady at 2.2% expected), while industrial production grew 0.8% on month in January (+0.2% expected) and retail sales climbed 0.6% (-0.1% expected).

The Coronavirus is growing in the Middle East, Europe, and another area of the world, as Brazil verified its initial case in Latin America, while other regions of China found to lower their emergency response level as the number of new cases recorded there proceeds to reduce.

The Greenback is now trading with a slightly bearish bias amid forecasts that the U.S. Federal Reserve may lower the interest rates this year to control downside influence on the economy produced by China’s coronavirus outbreak.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 113.5
  • R2: 112.2
  • R1: 111.46

Pivot Point 110.9

  • S1: 110.16
  • S2: 109.6
  • S3: 108.29

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues with its bearish momentum on Monday in the wake of weakness in the U.S. dollar and stronger Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair is recovered a bit in the wake of a bullish correction, but more selling seems to come soon. The USD/JPY is trading bearish at 107.775, and it has high odds of going towards the next support level of 107.338.

We can see on the 4-hour chart above, the USD/JPY has formed a bearish engulfing pattern below 108.350, which may trigger further selling until 107.338. We need to keep an eye in the USD/JPY as the closing of candles above 108.338 level can help us secure a buy trade with a take profit of around 109.650.  

All the best for today! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 27 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for U.S. Economic Events!

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar stabilized on Wednesday, with the ICE U.S. Dollar Index gaining 0.2% on the day to 99.14. The European Central Bank will report the Eurozone’s M3 money supply in January (+5.3% on-year expected), February Economic Confidence Index (102.8 expected), and final readings of Consumer Confidence Index (-6.6 previously). Let’s take a look at trade ideas…

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar stabilized on Wednesday, with the ICE U.S. Dollar Index gaining 0.2% on the day to 99.14. The European Central Bank will report the Eurozone’s M3 money supply in January (+5.3% on-year expected), February Economic Confidence Index (102.8 expected), and final readings of Consumer Confidence Index (-6.6 previously). Let’s take a look at trade ideas…

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar stabilized on Wednesday, with the ICE U.S. Dollar Index gaining 0.2% on the day to 99.14. The European Central Bank will report the Eurozone’s M3 money supply in January (+5.3% on-year expected), February Economic Confidence Index (102.8 expected), and final readings of Consumer Confidence Index (-6.6 previously). Let’s take a look at trade ideas…

Economic Events to Watch Today 

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair managed to cross the high level of 1.0890 as the U.S. yields continue to flash red in the wake of coronavirus fears. Whereas, the 10-year Treasury note is currently trading at 1.37%, representing a five basis point profit on the record low of 1.32%. 

Overall, the Greenback has traded near a three-month high against the Euro as worries over the outbreak of Coronavirus has driven sharp volatility in the market, mostly driving dollar prices higher. 

The Euro has tried to rally higher during the Asian trading session on Thursday but continues to encounter resistance above. We are in a strong downtrend, and the EUR/USD is exhibiting correction of that downtrend as it could lead the EUR/USD prices towards the next target level of 10925. 

On Thursday, there won’t be any meaningful macroeconomic data releases from the Eurozone. Still, the markets will remain focused on coronavirus headlines and the U.S. economic figures, especially the Prelim GDP q/q and Durable Goods Orders m/m.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0747
  • S2 1.0807
  • S3 1.0844

Pivot Point 1.0867

  • R1 1.0905
  • R2 1.0928
  • R3 1.0988

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is consolidating near 1.0916, as the pair seems to go for completing 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0930. The pair appears to have initiate correction as it has previously achieved 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.08930. The MACD is crossing above 0 level, which suggests.

Chances of further buying in the EUR/USD. The pair may find immediate support around 1.08540, which is mostly extended by the 50 EMA and a bullish trendline. On the higher side, the EUR/USD may find resistance around 1.0930 and 1.0980. Consider taking bullish trades above 1.0900 today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

On Thursday, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.2935, falling below the 1.2965 resistance to become a support level. The GBP dropped a day before as forecasts of the Bank of England (BOE) rate cut fueled over-optimism that expansionary fiscal policy would support the U.K. economy.

The outbreak of the Coronavirus has directed some traders to think central banks will be required to go after dovish monetary policy to support the economy against the potential threat of a coronavirus. The Sterling is still trading with a bearish bias as the interest rate cut sentiment from 0.75% to 0.50% remains pretty solid. 

The council approved a decision to allow the opening of the Brexit talks for a new partnership with the U.K. The Commission has also formally nominated the Commission as an E.U. negotiator. Besides, the council has also selected negotiating directives, which constitute a mandate to the Commission for the negotiations.

By comparison, when Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Tories succeeded December’s election, extending his hold on parliament and pushing some Brexit risk, the Sterling was trading near 83 pence per Euro, and it also gained some support against the U.S. dollar.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2802
  • S2 1.2893
  • S3 1.2949

Pivot Point 1.2937

  • R1 1.304
  • R2 1.3074
  • R3 1.3165

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Thursday, the GBP/USD continues trading with a mixed bias, following a narrow trading range of 1.2980 – 1.2880. As we can see on the 4-hour chart above, the Cable has formed a descending triangle pattern which is supporting the Sterling around 1.2880. It’s one of the most crucial trading levels as a violation of this can open further room for selling until 1.2795 area. 

On the other hand, the GBP/USD has the potential to go after 1.3070 if it manages to trade above 1.2960 support. The MACD and RSI are holding in the selling zone, supporting bearish bias for the GBP/USD pair. Let’s look for selling trades below 1.2966 and bullish above the same level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is flashing red, falling below the 110.350 resistance. The USD/JPY is holding at 110.14 and consolidates in the range between the 110 – 110.58. However, a stable market tends to weaken the Japanese yen’s safe-haven demand.

The Coronavirus is growing in the Middle East, Europe, and another area of the world, as Brazil verified its initial case in Latin America, while other regions of China found to lower their emergency response level as the number of fresh cases recorded there proceeds to reduce.

The Greenback is now trading with a slightly bearish bias amid forecasts that the U.S. Federal Reserve may lower the interest rates this year to control downside influence on the economy produced by China’s coronavirus outbreak.

The dollar initially traded bullish as the virus outbreak further around the globe, with traders eyeing all U.S. assets as safe-haven investments. Nevertheless, money managers now assume the Fed would be more prone to dovish monetary policy and cut rates, considering the ongoing uncertainties of Coronavirus. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 113.5
  • R2: 112.2
  • R1: 111.46

Pivot Point 110.9

  • S1: 110.16
  • S2: 109.6
  • S3: 108.29

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has traded mostly in line with the previous forecast and stayed below the horizontal resistance level of 110.350. On the 4 hour timeframe, an upward trendline is extending resistance at 110.350, as the USD/JPY pair failed to break above this mark yesterday. 

For now, the USD/JPY has formed a bearish engulfing pattern below 110.350, which may trigger further selling until 109.50. We need to keep an eye in the USD/JPY as the closing of candles below 110.350 level can help us secure a selling trade with a take profit of around 109.650.  

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 26 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Mixed Sentiment Dominates! 

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar fell against its major peers, with the ICE Dollar Index declining 0.4% on the day to 99.00. France’s INSEE will release the February Consumer Confidence Index (103 expected).

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar fell against its major peers, with the ICE Dollar Index declining 0.4% on the day to 99.00. France’s INSEE will release the February Consumer Confidence Index (103 expected).

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar fell against its major peers, with the ICE Dollar Index declining 0.4% on the day to 99.00. France’s INSEE will release the February Consumer Confidence Index (103 expected).

The U.S. Commerce Department will report January’s new home sales (717,000 units expected). That’s all we have on the economic docket, so let’s take a look at the technical setups for today.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD fell back towards $1.08, and the Australian dollar dropped to an 11-year low amid the extension of the coronavirus outside China prompted concerns of a pandemic and led traders to take safe-haven shelter in the Greenback.

What’s more surprising is that the safe-haven Japanese yen and the Swiss franc has also gained bullish momentum, but not by much as the U.S. dollar. It seems like the investors are giving more weightage to Greenback, which is keeping the EUR/USD bearish. 

The EUR/USD pair seems to cross the high level of 1.0890 if the U.S. yields continue to flash red in the wake of coronavirus fears. Whereas, the 10-year Treasury note is currently trading at 1.37%, representing a five basis point gain on the record low of 1.32%. 

Looking forward, there won’t be any meaningful macroeconomic data releases on Wednesday, and markets will remain focused on coronavirus headlines.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0747
  • S2 1.0807
  • S3 1.0844
  • Pivot Point 1.0867
  • R1 1.0905
  • R2 1.0928
  • R3 1.0988

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD pair is trading sideways due to the lack of major economic events. The EUR/USD is consolidating near 1.0850, as investors seem to do profit taking due to lack of volatility. The pair appears to have initiate correction as it has previously achieved 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.08530. 

On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair seems to form a bearish flag that has the potential to drive further selling in the EUR/USD pair. The pair may find immediate support around 1.08540, which is mostly extended by the 50 EMA and a bullish trendline. Above this, the direct currency pair can bounce off until 1.0890, while bearish breakout can lead the pair towards the next support area of 1.0820.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.2975, above the 1.2965 resistance become a support level. Closings of candles above this level may help secure a buy trade around 1.2975 with a target of 1.3070. Whereas, a bearish breakout of 1.2965 can lead the Cable towards 1.2930

The stronger dollar has capped the gains for the GBP/USD pair. On Wednesday, the dollar has expanded by 0.2% versus a basket of currencies to 99.62. Even though the U.S. economic figures during the previous week came in under economists’ expectations. Money markets are presently pricing in a Federal Reserve interest rate reduction sentiment as Fed is expected to cut rate by 25 basis points in June. A stronger dollar in the wake of coronavirus can hurt the exports from the United States, and Trump may put more pressure on the Fed Chair Powell to introduce the dovish policy in the future. 

On the Brexit front, the council approved a decision to allow the opening of the Brexit talks for a fresh partnership with the U.K. The Commission has also formally nominated the Commission as an E.U. negotiator. Apart from this, the council selected negotiating directives, which constitute a mandate to the Commission for the negotiations.

On the fundamental side, the Sajid Javid’s abrupt departure as Chancellor of the Exchequer recently helped the GBP currency because markets started to price in the possibilities of a significant fiscal expansion in the U.K., repealing the Bank of England rate cut trade. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2802
  • S2 1.2893
  • S3 1.2949
  • Pivot Point 1.2984
  • R1 1.304
  • R2 1.3074
  • R3 1.3165

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

Technically, the GBP/USD is trading with a mixed bias, following a narrow trading range of 1.2960 – 1.3010. At the moment, the Cable seems to head south to retest the resistance become support level of 1.2965, and closing of doji or reversal candles above this level may help support the GBP/USD pair. 

The GBP/USD has the potential to go after 1.3070 level only if it manages to trade above 1.2960 support. Bearish violation of this level can extend selling until 1.2900 level. The MACD and RSI are holding in the buying zone, supporting bullish bias for the GBP/USD pair. Let’s look for selling trades below 1.2984 and bullish above the same level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing green rose above the 110.00 handles, the pair continued its recent recovery rally and reached above the 110.00 level mainly due to market stability. The USD/JPY is holding 110.36 and consolidates in the range between the 110.14 – 110.58. However, a stable market tends to weaken the Japanese yen’s safe-haven demand.

The modest recovery in the global risk sentiment allowed the U.S. Treasury bond yields to stage a goodish bounce from all-time lows. This ultimately continued some support to the U.S. dollar and remained supportive of the early uptick.

The renewed strength could be the cause of the uptick in the S&P 500 futures, which are now reporting a 0.70% gain on the day. The state of confusion between the traders is mainly due to the global outbreak of the deadly coronavirus, which is driving traders towards placing bullish bets on gold and the U.S. dollar instead of Japanese yen. Therefore, it will be a good idea to wait for putting some secure follow-through buying after confirming that the recent sharp corrective slide from multi-month tops has already ended.

Looking forward, there isn’t any major market-moving economic data scheduled to release on Wednesday. So, any fresh developments about the coronavirus will play a key role in producing some meaningful trading opportunities.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 113.5
  • R2: 112.2
  • R1: 111.46

Pivot Point 110.9

  • S1: 110.16
  • S2: 109.6
  • S3: 108.29

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has dropped from 112.160 level to 110.135 level just in two trading days. Earlier, we expected it to reverse after completing the 61.8% Fibonacci support level of 110.350, but this level has now been violated. 

On the 4 hour timeframe, an upward trendline was also extending support at 110.350, but the pair failed to hold above this mark, perhaps due to profit-taking in the Greenback. For now, the safe-haven pair is showing a slight bullish correction to retest the support become a resistance area of 110.350. Closing of candles below this level can help us secure a selling trade with a take profit of around 109.650.  

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 25 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Coronovirus Dominates Market Sentiment! 

Later today, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for February is expected to increase to 132.1. The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in South Korea has jumped to 833 with eight fatalities. Japan has recorded 850 cases (4 deaths), Italy announced there were 229 incidents (7 deaths). Singapore has also addressed 90 instances.

Later today, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for February is expected to increase to 132.1. The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in South Korea has jumped to 833 with eight fatalities. Japan has recorded 850 cases (4 deaths), Italy announced there were 229 incidents (7 deaths). Singapore has also addressed 90 instances.

Later today, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for February is expected to increase to 132.1. The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in South Korea has jumped to 833 with eight fatalities. Japan has recorded 850 cases (4 deaths), Italy announced there were 229 incidents (7 deaths). Singapore has also addressed 90 instances.

Save-haven assets, like U.S. government bonds and gold, kept receiving bids. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slid from 1.470% Friday to 1.377%, the lowest level since July 2016. And the 30-year yield shed 6.8 basis points to 1.849%.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD remains lightly positive, +0.08%, while taking steps to 1.0860. The dollar slid on Tuesday following a recent bullish momentum amid heightened expectations that the expected hit to economic extension from the spread of the coronavirus will urge the U.S. Federal Reserve to decrease interest rates.

Expectations for the Federal Reserve interest rate cut have grown in the last few days to price in a 50-50 probability. Today is likely to be a quiet day ahead on the economic docket. Key economic figures will include Germany’s 2nd estimate GDP figures for the 4th quarter.

Lack of major deviation from 1st forecast is not likely to have too much of an influence on the EUR. Any drop in the U.S consumer confidence figure and risk sentiment could help capture a movement in the EUR/USD currency pair later during the U.S.s session today. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 1.0977
  • R2: 1.091
  • R1: 1.0882

Pivot Point 1.0844

  • S1: 1.0815
  • S2: 1.0777
  • S3: 1.071

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair soars higher to trade around 1.0865, making a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart. This pattern suggests the odds of bullish trend continuation. The 50 periods EMA is also likely to extend support at 1.0815, and we may see a bounce off above this level. The same level also marks the 50% Fibonacci retracement, while 61.8% Fibo support prevails at 1.0815. On the higher side, resistance can be seen around 1.0845.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/SD currency pair failed to continue its recent gains and dropped to 1.2940, representing 0.20% declines on the day mainly due to uncertainty and worries regarding the Brexit deal. The broad-based greenback strength also keeps the pair under pressure. At this moment, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading at 1.2978 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2934 – 1.3000.

The United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson will likely push for the U.S. trade deal by March 02, according to the Telegraph. The U.S. gave warning to the Tory government to avoid the greed checks on the good in the Irish Sea to secure the US-UK trade deal.

Besides, the on-going bearish pressure on the Cable is a reason for Greenback’s broad-based strength. The USD is getting gains due to the broad risk-off market sentiment in the wake of deadly coronavirus intensifying fears. As in result, the traders prefer the safe-haven assets like gold and dollar.

Yesterday, the British pound sank along with most currencies as traders blended out of assets considered riskier for the Greenback. Most of the economic analysts see the U.S. economy as nearly well-shielded should the coronavirus damage global economic growth heavily. Eyes will remain on the UK CBI Realized Sales for more trends in the GBP/USD pair.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2749
  • S2 1.2845
  • S3 1.2902

Pivot Point 1.2942

  • R1 1.2998
  • R2 1.3038
  • R3 1.3134

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.2975, above the 1.2965 resistance become a support level. Closings of candles above this level may help secure a buy trade around 1.2975 with a target of 1.3070. Whereas, a bearish breakout of 1.2965 can lead the Cable towards 1.2930

. 

On the technical side, a daily closing beyond 100-day SMA level of 1.2955 can recall 1.3000 marks to the charts whereas February 13 top surrounding 1.3070 and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3206 can entertain the buyers during further upside. The MACD and RSI are holding in the buying zone, supporting bullish bias for the GBP/USD pair. Let’s look for selling trades below 1.2965 and bullish above the same level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY sank 0.7% to 110.81 on increasing safe-haven demand. The USD/JPY pair failed to maintain its bullish momentum as investors started taking profit in the U.S. dollar, which leads the USD/JPY prices lower. The Japanese yen has now dropped back to the lower end against Greenback, and the pair now continues to trade around the 110.65-60 region.

Investors prefer safe-haven assets, mainly due to a rise in the number of coronavirus cases outside China, especially in South Korea and Italy. As per the latest report, the number of coronavirus cases in Italy’s Lombardy region rose from 54 on Sunday to 89, leaving the country with 150 confirmed infection, the highest in Europe, and around 5-times that of Germany whereas the news came as the total number of virus cases rose past 77,000 in China.

The USD/JPY currency pair may drop to levels below 111.30 if the German IFO data, which is scheduled to release at 09:00 GMT, prints below estimates, increasing recession fears and growing demand for the anti-risk Japanese yen.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 113.5
  • R2: 112.2
  • R1: 111.46

Pivot Point 110.9

  • S1: 110.16
  • S2: 109.6
  • S3: 108.29

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY prices are trading with a bearish bias above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 110.450. Closing of the candle above this level can extend buying until 110.850. Earlier, most of the bearish trend came after the USD/JPY violated the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on the 4-hour chart. On the lower side, the pair has the potential to go after the next support level of 109.650 in case of a bearish breakout of 110.250 support. Let’s consider staying bullish above 110.2 today to target 110.860. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 24 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Risk-off Sentiment In Play! 

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar retreated from the strongest level in nearly three years, as the ICE Dollar Index lost 0.6% on the day to 99.26. Germany’s IFO Institute reported its indexes for February (business climate at 95.0, current assessment at 98.4 and expectations at 91.6 expected). However, the actual figure surprised the market with a 96.1 gain.

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar retreated from the strongest level in nearly three years, as the ICE Dollar Index lost 0.6% on the day to 99.26. Germany’s IFO Institute reported its indexes for February (business climate at 95.0, current assessment at 98.4 and expectations at 91.6 expected). However, the actual figure surprised the market with a 96.1 gain.

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar retreated from the strongest level in nearly three years, as the ICE Dollar Index lost 0.6% on the day to 99.26. Germany’s IFO Institute reported its indexes for February (business climate at 95.0, current assessment at 98.4 and expectations at 91.6 expected). However, the actual figure surprised the market with a 96.1 gain.

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago will post January National Activity Index (-0.16 expected). The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas will release its Manufacturing Activity Index for February (0 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today 

  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD rose 0.6% to 1.0845. Research firm Markit reported that the eurozone’s manufacturing PMI bounced to 49.1 in February (47.4 estimated) from 47.9 in January and Services PMI climbed to 52.8 (52.3 expected) from 52.5. Later today, the German IFO Business Climate Index will be released (95.0 expected).

The Euro is getting badly hit in the wake of coronavirus. At the virus front, the number of coronavirus cases in Italy’s Lombardy region rose from 54 on Sunday to 89, leaving the country with 150 confirmed infection, the highest in Europe and around 5-times that of Germany whereas the news came as the total number of virus cases rose past 77,000 in China.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0686
  • S2 1.076
  • S3 1.0804

Pivot Point 1.0834

  • R1 1.0878
  • R2 1.0908
  • R3 1.0982

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD pair soars higher to trade around 1.0865, making a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart. This pattern suggests the odds of bullish trend continuation. 

The 50 periods EMA is also likely to extend support at 1.0815, and we may see a bounce off above this level. The same level also marks the 50% Fibonacci retracement, while 61.8% Fibo support prevails at 1.0815. On the higher side, resistance can be seen around 1.0845.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/SD currency pair failed to continue its recent gains and dropped to 1.2940, representing 0.20% declines on the day mainly due to uncertainty and worries regarding the Brexit deal. The broad-based greenback strength also keeps the pair under pressure. At this moment, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading at 1.2938 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2934 – 1.2955.

The United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson will likely push for the U.S. trade deal by March 02, according to the Telegraph. The U.S. gave warning to the Tory government to avoid the greed checks on the good in the Irish Sea to secure the US-UK trade deal.

Besides, the on-going bearish pressure on the Cable is a reason for Greenback’s broad-based strength. The USD is getting gains due to the broad risk-off market sentiment in the wake of deadly coronavirus intensifying fears. As in result, the traders prefer the safe-haven assets like gold and dollar.

Looking forward, the traders will keep their eyes on the Brexit headlines because the British ministers are to approve the initial offer by Tuesday. On the other hand, the 2nd-tier project numbers from the US Dallas Fed and the US Chicago Fed will be the keys to watch.



Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2749
  • S2 1.2845
  • S3 1.2902

Pivot Point 1.2942

  • R1 1.2998
  • R2 1.3038
  • R3 1.3134

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.2898, below the 1.2965 resistance level. Closings of candles below this level may help secure a sell trade around 1.2875, whereas, a bullish breakout of 1.2975 can lead the Cable towards 1.3070. 

On the technical side, a daily closing beyond 100-day SMA level of 1.2955 can recall 1.3000 marks to the charts whereas February 13 top surrounding 1.3070 and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3206 can entertain the buyers during further upside. The MACD and RSI are holding in the buying zone, supporting bullish bias for the GBP/USD pair. Let’s look for selling trades below 1.2951 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and dropped from the session high mainly due to the risk-off market in the wake of escalating coronavirus fears. At press time, the USD/JPY pair is trading right now at 111.52 and consolidates in the range between the 111.34 – 111.69. However, the USD/JPY is struggling to keep the recent gans above the 111.50.

Investors prefer safe-haven assets, mainly due to a rise in the number of coronavirus cases outside China, especially in South Korea and Italy. As per the latest report, the number of coronavirus cases in Italy’s Lombardy region rose from 54 on Sunday to 89, leaving the country with 150 confirmed infection, the highest in Europe, and around 5-times that of Germany whereas the news came as the total number of virus cases rose past 77,000 in China.

The USD/JPY currency pair may drop to levels below 111.30 if the German IFO data, which is scheduled to release at 09:00 GMT, prints below estimates, increasing recession fears and growing demand for the anti-risk Japanese yen.

It should be noted that China is declining some limitations in the Wuhan province and may allow non-local citizens to leave the city at the center of the outbreak. Whereas Guangdong province in China, which has the most infected sectors by virus after the Hubei region, decreased its coronavirus emergency response level from its highest this morning.



Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 110.57
  • S2 111.13
  • S3 111.35

Pivot Point 111.69

  • R1 111.91
  • R2 112.25
  • R3 112.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Monday, the USD/JPY prices are trading with a bearish bias above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 111.280. Closing of candle below this level can extend selling until 110.850. Earlier, most of the bullish trend came after the USD/JPY violated the upward channel on the daily chart. 

This channel extended resistance around 111.01 level, and now this is going to extend support to the USD/JPY currency pair. On the upper side, the pair has the potential to go after the next resistance level of 112. Let’s consider staying bearish below 111.69 today to target 110.860. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 17 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Presidents Day! 

The current week is anticipated to display a slow start with U.S. banks on holiday and light economic data. U.K. jobs data will be reported on Tuesday, and the Fed will publish minutes from their last conference on Wednesday.

The current week is anticipated to display a slow start with U.S. banks on holiday and light economic data. U.K. jobs data will be reported on Tuesday, and the Fed will publish minutes from their last conference on Wednesday.

The current week is anticipated to display a slow start with U.S. banks on holiday and light economic data. U.K. jobs data will be reported on Tuesday, and the Fed will publish minutes from their last conference on Wednesday.

The market awaits U.S. economic events, which are expected to drive some price action during the U.S. session today. The U.S. Commerce Department will report January retail sales (+0.3% on month expected) and December business inventories (+0.1% expected). 

The Labor Department will post the January import price index (-0.2% expected). The Federal Reserve will release January industrial production (-0.2% expected) and capacity utilization (76.8% expected). The University of Michigan will report its Consumer Sentiment Index for February (99.4 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD placed a second consecutive weekly loss and dropped to levels not witnessed since April 2017 during the previous week. The euro was the most vulnerable amongst the majors, and deviation is seen in the dollar index (DXY).

Typically, the greenback and the EUR/USD shares a sharp inverse relationship. Last week, though, the greenback held beneath highs posted in September while the currency pair split to a notable low, which could be indicating a slowing of momentum in the greenback dollar. 

On Monday, the U.S. banks observance a holiday in the wake of President’sPresident’s day, and the economic calendar also remains light, which is why the current week is expected to have a quiet start. Volatility is expected to soar later in the week as the Fed publishes minutes from their latest meeting on Wednesday. On Friday, the PMI figures from Europe will be released and will help drive the movement in the market. 

Coronavirus concerns in the markets have sunk a great deal, and the S&P 500 placed a second back-to-back weekly gain to settle at a fresh record high. The German DAX supported the bullish momentum in the global stock markets and closed at a record high for the first time in 2 years.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0767
  • S2 1.0828
  • S3 1.0851

Pivot Point 1.0888

  • R1 1.0911
  • R2 1.0949
  • R3 1.1009

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD dropped to trade around 1.0841 support level, and it appears to form a Doji candle today, perhaps due to a lack of trading volume and liquidity. Today’s candle is slightly bullish, and it is pretty much likely to form a bullish engulfing pattern or a tweezers top pattern to drive bullish reversal in the pair.

Today, if the EUR/USD pair manages to drop below 1.0840, we may see EUR/USD prices going towards 1.0760. Let’sLet’s look for buying trade today above 1.0840. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD traded slightly bullish last week after examining its 100-day moving average. The GBP/USD pair has made a remarkable recovery, although the bearish momentum from earlier in the month reaches to prevent further bullish bias.

The greenback, while posting a second back-to-back weekly rise, has exhibited signs of instability. During the previous week, the dollar weakened against the Sterling, which might be contributing an early sign for a pullback.

The current week is anticipated to display a slow start with U.S. banks on holiday and light economic data. U.K. jobs data will be reported on Tuesday, and the Fed will publish minutes from their last conference on Wednesday. Besides, the inflation figures coming from Britain will be posted on Wednesday. The CPI is anticipated to climb by 1.7% in the year to January versus growth of 1.3% in the previous reading.

The risk-tone stays sluggish with stocks in China contradicting those of India and Japan due to hopes of further monetary/fiscal measures to counter coronavirus risk. Looking forward, the U.S. markets are closed due to the President’sPresident’s Day Holiday, and therefore, fewer moves are expected to take place during the day ahead. However, the traders will keep thor eyes on the coronavirus/Brexit headlines.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2888
  • S2 1.2928
  • S3 1.2944

Pivot Point 1.2968

  • R1 1.2984
  • R2 1.3008
  • R3 1.3047

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Monday, the GBP/USD continues to trade sideways, holding below 1.3065 resistance market. The GBP/USD pair holds above 1.3000, which is the most crucial level, and the violation of this level can lead to GBP prices further lower towards 1.2965 and 1.2925. The MACD and RSI are holding in the buying zone, supporting bullish bias for the GBP/USD pair. Let’s look for bullish trades above 1.3000 and bearish below the same level today as the President Day holiday is likely to keep the market less volatile.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and dropped to 109.75 despite the release of downbeat Japan’ Japan’ preliminary 4th-quarter (Q4) GDP data earlier today. The USD/JPY is currently trading at 109.81 and consolidates in the range between the 109.72 – 109.86. The traders are keeping their focus on qualitative catalysts.

On the forecasted view, Japan’s economic growth decreased and came out well below 0.9% figure to 1.6%, whereas the annual figures also disappoint with -6.3% against -3.7% expected.

The 1st economic recession after the 4th-consecutive quarter of growth pushes the policymakers of the Bank of Japan to take steps and understand how to secure the economy ahead. Whereas, the recent data regarding spending and activity figures were soft, while the traders should not ignore the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) suggestion for taking fresh directions.

The Bank of Japan struggles to decrease the strength of the Japanese Yen, the safe-haven currency getting benefits from the risk-off market sentiment in the wake of China’s coronavirus, and Brexit fears. These two factors are the biggest reason behind the pair bearish sentiment.

At the coronavirus front, the Chinese officials have struggled too much to improve the risk-sentiment, which is severely disturbed by the fears of the coronavirus. The market showed a slight improvement in the risk-tone. However, the broad sentiment and the numbers have unchanged so far, so, the USD/JPY currency pair still trading on the bearish track.

Daily Support and Resistance  

  • S1 109.42
  • S2 109.6
  • S3 109.69

Pivot Point 109.79

  • R1 109.87
  • R2 109.97
  • R3 110.15

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair is trading 110.025 – 109.500 due to a lack of economic events as the U.S. banks are closed in the observance of Presidents Day. At the moment, the USD/JPY pair is holding below 110 resistance as it failed to violate the horizontal resistance level of 110.025.

In case, the USD/JPY manages to break above 110.025 level; we may see USD/JPY prices going towards 110.350 at first and then towards 110.850. Alternatively, the USD/JPY can drop to 109.300 in case of failure to break above 110.025. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 14 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for U.S. Retail Sales!  

On Friday, the market awaits U.S. economic events, which are expected to drive some price action during the U.S. session today. The U.S. Commerce Department will report January retail sales (+0.3% on month expected) and December business inventories (+0.1% expected). 

On Friday, the market awaits U.S. economic events, which are expected to drive some price action during the U.S. session today. The U.S. Commerce Department will report January retail sales (+0.3% on month expected) and December business inventories (+0.1% expected). 

On Friday, the market awaits U.S. economic events, which are expected to drive some price action during the U.S. session today. The U.S. Commerce Department will report January retail sales (+0.3% on month expected) and December business inventories (+0.1% expected). 

The Labor Department will post the January import price index (-0.2% expected). The Federal Reserve will release January industrial production (-0.2% expected) and capacity utilization (76.8% expected). The University of Michigan will report its Consumer Sentiment Index for February (99.4 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD dropped 0.3% to 1.0842, the lowest level since April 2017. Later today, the eurozone’s fourth-quarter GDP growth will be reported (+1.0% on-year expected)

The money markets are currently pricing approximately 6-basis points of a rate cut by the end of 2020, against a zero probability seen a month earlier. On the other hand, the EUR/USD currency pair may find some bids if the German data prints better-than-expectations. Whereas, the technical bias will remain bearish until the pair does not reach above the 10-day Moving average at 1.0940.

Traders are currently waiting for the German data to take new positions. The market will also keep their eyes on Italian Trade Balance and Flash Employment Change for taking fresh cues.

Later today, official reports on January retail sales (+0.3% on month expected), industrial production (-0.2% on month expected), and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (February preliminary reading, 99.4 expected) will be released.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0767
  • S2 1.0828
  • S3 1.0851

Pivot Point 1.0888

  • R1 1.0911
  • R2 1.0949
  • R3 1.1009

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD fell dramatically to trade around 1.0841 support level, and it seems to form a Doji candle today, perhaps due to a lack of trading volume and liquidity. If this happens, we may see the bullish trend in the EUR/USD pair in the week ahead. At the same time, if the EUR/USD pair manages to drop below 1.0840, we may see EUR/USD prices going towards 1.0760. Let’s look for buying trade today above 1.0840. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD rose 0.7% on the day to 1.3046. U.K. Chancellor Sajid Javid has resigned from his position, and his deputy Rishi Sunak will succeed him. Investors speculated that this might pave the way for more fiscal stimulus.

On the other hand, the fears of coronavirus are decreasing and supporting the risk recovery. As a result, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields stay modestly down to 1.61% while stocks in Asia are marking a recovery from Thursday’s declines.

Looking forward, the lack of U.K. data will push the cable traders to keep eyes on political/Brexit headlines, as well as coronavirus update. However, the U.S. Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will entertain the momentum traders during the later part of the day.

The GBP/USD broke above 1.2950 resistance level, which is now looking to test the next resistance around 1.3045. The following support level is likely to be found around 1.2950 for now. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2888
  • S2 1.2928
  • S3 1.2944

Pivot Point 1.2968

  • R1 1.2984
  • R2 1.3008
  • R3 1.3047

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On the 4 hour timeframe, 1.3000 is the most crucial level for the GBP/USD as a violation of this level can lead Sterling prices further higher towards 1.3045 and 1.3065 in the coming week. 

The MACD and RSI are holding in the buying zone, supporting bullish bias for the GBP/USD pair. Let’s look for bullish trades above 1.3000 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY slid 0.3% to 109.75. The USD/JPY is struggling to keep their gains ahead of key U.S. data and looking toward fresh developments in the coronavirus. The USD/JPY trades around at 109.78 and consolidates in the narrow range between the 109.76 – 109.87.

According to the news from China Health Commission, the epicenter Hubei province reports 4,823 new cases on the second day of using the new diagnosing method. The number of people is in severe and critical condition, and the number rose to 9,638 from the prior figures of 7,084.

It should be noted that China’s President Xi Jinping told on Thursday that the government’s struggles are starting to have positive effects on the Chinese economy.

It is worth to mention:

1: Reports 116 new deaths.

2: Total confirmed cases rise to 51,986.

3: Number of people in serious and critical condition 9,638, from 7,084 yesterday.

4:Around the globe, a total of 65,236 cases, 1,487 deaths.

As in result, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yields initially extended the reaction to the coronavirus news to 1.39% before rebounding to 1.44%, which is where they were pre-news. 10-year yields similarly fell to 1.57% before recovering to 1.62%. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 110.63
  • R2: 110.33
  • R1: 110.21

Pivot Point 110.02

  • S1: 109.9
  • S2: 109.71
  • S3: 109.4

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Friday, the USD/JPY pair hasn’t changed much as it continues to trade with in the same trading 110.025 – 109.500. Apparently, it is due to a lack of economic events, but we may see movement during the U.S. session on the release of U.S. Retail Sales data. At the moment, the USD/JPY pair is holding below 110 resistance as it failed to violate the horizontal resistance level of 110.025.

In case, the USD/JPY manages to break above 110.025 level; we may see USD/JPY prices going towards 110.350 at first and then towards 110.850. Alternatively, the USD/JPY can drop to 109.300 in case of failure to break above 110.025. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 13 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Inflation In Highlights! 

The U.S. government reported a budget deficit of 32.6 billion dollars for January, significantly above the expected deficit of 10.0 billion dollars.

The U.S. government reported a budget deficit of 32.6 billion dollars for January, significantly above the expected deficit of 10.0 billion dollars.

The U.S. government reported a budget deficit of 32.6 billion dollars for January, significantly above the expected deficit of 10.0 billion dollars.

Later today, the Labor Department will post Consumer Price Index for January (+0.2% on month expected), and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended February 8 (210,000 expected). European stocks were broadly higher, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rising 0.6%. Germany’s DAX gained 0.9%, France’s CAC rose 0.8%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.5%.

The U.S. government bond prices eased for a second session, as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield settled higher at 1.629%.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD slid 0.4% to 1.0874, the lowest level since May 2017. Official data revealed that the Euro zone’s industrial production contracted 2.1% on month in December (-2.0% expected), the most significant decline in nearly four years.

The EUR/USD pair is prolonging the losses, and today, we are on the weakest levels since May 2017. On the news front, that is a blend of dovish ECB and concerns about retardation in the Eurozone, especially in Germany. 

In addition to this, the U.S. Fed Chair Powell kept his stand in testimonies to Congress, verifying that the Fed does not see to cut rates any time shortly. Nonetheless, the money markets proceed to price in another interest rate cut in the second half of the year.

The EUR currency will likely continue to flash red, having found acceptance under the critical support at 1.0879. Whereas, the bearish common currency could find bids if the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, which is listed to deliver at 13:30 GMT, exceeds the expectations by a significant margin. As better than expected CPI data will enable markets to price out probabilities of an additional interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 1.1009
  • R2: 1.0949
  • R1: 1.0911

Pivot Point 1.0888

  • S1: 1.0851
  • S2: 1.0828
  • S3: 1.0767

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is consolidating in a bearish zone around 1.0912 in the wake of a stronger dollar and weaker Euro. Presently, the pair is very near to the strong support mark of 1.0879, and the EUR/USD has also concluded a daily candle over this level. The pair has also formed a Doji candle accompanied by a robust bearish trend, which implies the odds of a downward reversal unto 1.0945 and 1.0980. Alternatively, the violation of 1.0925 can push buying in Euro; elsewhere, it may extend trading bearish unto 1.0880.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD marked a day-high of 1.2991 before retreating to close at 1.2955, relatively flat on the day. At the USD front, the greenback getting support as a safe-haven flows from the coronavirus fears. Moreover, the United States economy is performing almost strong, as shown last week’s nonfarm payroll report.

As in result, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields decreased nearly 3-basis points to 1.60%, whereas most of the Asian shares are also in negative territories.

Looking forward, the Brexit and political updates from the U.K., and the U.S. Consumer Price Index data for January will be the keys to watch whereas; the traders also keep their eyes on the coronavirus headlines.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 1.3047
  • R2: 1.3008
  • R1: 1.2984
    Pivot Point 1.2968
  • S1: 1.2944
  • S2: 1.2928
  • S3: 1.2888

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD broke above 1.2950 resistance level, which is now looking to test the next resistance around 1.3045. The following support level is likely to be found around 1.2950 for now. On the 4 hour timeframe, 1.3000 is the most crucial level for the GBP/USD as a violation of this level can lead Sterling prices further higher towards 1.3045 and 1.3065 in the coming week. The MACD and RSI are holding in the buying zone, supporting bullish bias for the GBP/USD pair. Let’s look for bullish trades above 1.3000 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The safe-haven-metal prices got support and representing 0.30% gains on the day mainly due to risk-off market sentiment in the wake of coronavirus intensified fears. The yellow metal is currently trading at $1,570 per Oz, representing a 0.30% gain on the day.

The coronavirus is back in action, as the latest report in coronavirus infected and dead people from Hubei registered a sharp rise due to the change in the updated diagnostic standard. The numbers mention 14,840 new coronavirus cases, with the death toll rising by 242 to 1,310 at the end of February 12, 2020.

However, the renewed coronavirus fears could be the reason behind the risk-off sentiment, caused by the big jump seen in the coronavirus cases in China. As in result, the futures on the S&P 500 are currently down 0.30%, and so is the price of WTI oil. Japan’s Nikkei is also representing a 0.10% drop. 

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is attracting bids against commodity dollars, AUD, NZD, and CAD currencies. The markets might review the historical data with the new methodology. If the trend is found to be slowing, the risk sentiment could improve, and ultimately decreasing the bid tone around the gold. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 110.63
  • R2: 110.33
  • R1: 110.21
    Pivot Point 110.02
  • S1: 109.9
  • S2: 109.71
  • S3: 109.4

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair is trading in a narrow range of 110.025 – 109.600 due to a lack of economic events during the Asian session, but we may see movement during the U.S. session on the release of CPI data. At the moment, the USD/JPY pair is looking to cross above the horizontal resistance level of 110.025. 

In case, the USDJPY manages to break above 110.025 level; we may see USD/JPY prices going towards 110.350 at first and then towards 110.850. Alternatively, the USD/JPY can drop to 109.600 in case of failure to break above 110.025. 

All the best for today! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 12 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Fed Chair Powell Testimony Ahead! 

The U.S. National Federation of Independent Business’s Small Business Optimism Index posted at 104.3 for January, better than 103.5 expected.

The U.S. National Federation of Independent Business’s Small Business Optimism Index posted at 104.3 for January, better than 103.5 expected.

The U.S. National Federation of Independent Business’s Small Business Optimism Index posted at 104.3 for January, better than 103.5 expected.

Later today, the U.S. government is expected to post a monthly budget deficit of 10.0 billion dollars for January. The European stocks ended in positive territory, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rising 0.9%. Germany’s DAX advanced 1%, and both France’s CAC and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 were up 0.7%.

The Safe-haven assets were broadly lower in price. U.S. government bond prices eased, lifting the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to 1.589% from 1.574% Monday.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD rebounded 0.1% to 1.0919, halting a six-day decline. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde hinted that ECB might not ease monetary policy further, saying: “Monetary policy cannot, and should not, be the only game in town.” Later today, the Eurozone’s December industrial production will be reported (-2.0% on month expected).

The support to Euro came after the dovish remarks by the ECB President Lagarde, iterating that the slowing growth momentum in the Eurozone also decreased pressure on prices, which further helped the pair’s slide beneath the 1.0900 level for the first time after early October.

Looking forward, the shared currency will likely stay on the bullish track, mainly if the equities market continues to flash green in the wake of coronavirus development. Moreover, the riskier currencies like the NZD and the Aussie are also flashing green an picked up a strong bid at the press time.

In case the Eurozone industrial production disappoints expectations, the single currency may drop and revisit support at 1.0879 (October 1 low). Besides, the traders will keep their eyes on the German 10-y Bond Auction for taking fresh clues.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0826
  • S2 1.0876
  • S3 1.0893

Pivot Point 1.0925

  • R1 1.0943
  • R2 1.0975
  • R3 1.1025

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is consolidating in a bearish zone around 1.0912 in the wake of a stronger dollar and weaker Euro. Presently, the pair is very near to the strong support mark of 1.0879, and the EUR/USD has also concluded a daily candle over this level. The pair has also formed a Doji candle accompanied by a robust bearish trend, which implies the odds of a downward reversal unto 1.0945 and 1.0980. Alternatively, the violation of 1.0925 can push buying in Euro; elsewhere, it may extend trading bearish unto 1.0880.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD rose 0.3% to 1.2954. Official data showed that the U.K. fourth-quarter GDP grew 1.1% on year (+0.8% expected, +1.1% in the third quarter).

The GBP/USD rate is growing higher this week as the moving average extends support alongside the weakness in the U.S. dollar. The GBP/USD was last seen around the 1.3000 resistance after placing a low around 1.2870 in the early week.

The GDP figures from the United Kingdom published on Tuesday had little influence on the GBP/USD price as economic growth was not surprising in the fourth quarter, which was widely anticipated. A recovery yesterday was held lower by a major technical mark at 1.2960, although the pair is seen climbing over it in early trading today.

Daily Support and Resistance   

  • S1 1.2762
  • S2 1.2837
  • S3 1.2876

Pivot Point 1.2911

  • R1 1.295
  • R2 1.2985
  • R3 1.306

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD broke above 1.2950 resistance level, which is now looking to test the next resistance around 1.3045. The following support level is likely to be found around 1.2950 for now. On the 4 hour timeframe, 1.3000 is the most crucial level for the GBP/USD as a violation of this level can lead Sterling prices further higher towards 1.3045 and 1.3065 in the coming week. The MACD and RSI are holding in the buying zone, supporting bullish bias for the GBP/USD pair. Let’s look for bullish trades above 1.3000 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is flashing green and struggling to cross the 1.10 level, mainly due to the Japanese yen weakness in the wake of risk-on market sentiment. Currently, the USD/JPY is currently trading at 109.89 and consolidates in the narrow trading range between the 109.77 – 109.90. 

In the market, traders are found on the waiting mode for economic data and a carefully optimistic Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell who resumes his semi-annual congressional testimony, performing before the Senate Banking Committee later today in New York.

At the coronavirus front, the latest numbers China’s Health Commission gave showed 1,638 new cases of coronavirus contaminated people from Hubei. Compared to the prior day’s 2,097 incidents, the disease appears to decrease gradually. Moreover, the World Health Organization (WHO) has already said that the vaccine could be ready in 18 months, giving a boost to the risk-on.

As a result, it increased from 1.40% to 1.42%, ten-year yields from 1.57% to 1.59%, boosting the U.S. dollar and sending the yen and risk asset classes like gold lower. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each posting a record finish, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was virtually unchanged.

So, this news has also improved risk sentiment and sentiment in global financial and commodity markets (copper +0.97%, CRB index +0.44% time of writing) as it is showing that the Chinese are making progress in fighting and controlling the virus. The Federal Reserve’s Chair, Jerome Powell, sounded dovish but had a cautious tone in his semi-annual testimony to Congress.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 109.33
  • S2 109.54
  • S3 109.66

Pivot Point 109.76

  • R1 109.87
  • R2 109.97
  • R3 110.18

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY pair is trading in a narrow range of 110.025 – 109.600 due to a lack of economic events. At the moment, the USD/JPY pair is looking to cross above the horizontal resistance level of 110.025. 

In case, the USDJPY manages to break above 110.025 level; we may see USD/JPY prices going towards 110.350 at first and then towards 110.850. Alternatively, the USD/JPY can drop to 109.600 in case of failure to break above 110.025. 

All the best for today! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 6 – Top Trade Setups In Forex -Risk-On Sentiment In Play! 

The U.S. trade deficit grew to 48.9 billion dollars in December (48.2 billion dollars deficit expected).

The U.S. trade deficit grew to 48.9 billion dollars in December (48.2 billion dollars deficit expected).

The U.S. trade deficit grew to 48.9 billion dollars in December (48.2 billion dollars deficit expected).

Later today, the Labor Department will report initial jobless claims for the week ended February 1 (a drop to 215,000 expected).

On China’s coronavirus outbreak, the number of confirmed cases has surged across 27,000, and the related death toll has topped 560. Hong Kong’s government announced plans to impose a mandatory 14-day quarantine on all people entering the city from mainland China

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD lost 0.4% to 1.0999. Official data revealed that the eurozone’s retail sales declined 1.6% on month in December (-1.1% expected). Later today, German December factory orders will be reported (+0.7% on month expected).

Its worth to mention that the Factory Orders may have recovered in December, as expected by economists. 

Therefore, the pair is currently flashing red and found near the 1.0995 and could hit the lowest level of October 8 at 1.0941 if the German data disappoints upbeat expectations. On the other side, the EUR currency put a strong bid if the German data release better-than-expected by a significant margin.

Looking forward, traders will keep their eyes on the German Factory Orders. Our focus will also point to the European Central Bank President, Lagarde, who is set to deliver her speech at 1:00 pm on the day. The traders will closely listen to Lagarde’s statement for clues about the fresh direction on the ECB policies.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0905
  • S2 1.0959
  • S3 1.0979

Pivot Point 1.1014

  • R1 1.1033
  • R2 1.1068
  • R3 1.1122

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Thursday, the EUR/USD continues to trade with a bearish bias bear 1.1000 psychological level. The bearish channel that we spoke about is still there, and it’s keeping the pair in a selling mode. 

At the moment, the EUR/USD pair is likely to face immediate support around 1.1020 level, and violation of this can lead the EUR/USD prices towards 1.0925. The EUR/USD pair as already retrace back 1.1098, and it has the potential to show further selling bias. On the lower side, a breakout of the support level of 1.0990 can lead EUR/USD prices towards the 1.0945 area. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pared its gains in the prior session, retreating 0.3% to 1.2997. The currency pair did not get any support from the better-than-expected U.K. services PMI. Likewise, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and ADP Employment Change sent the U.S. dollar higher.

On the flip side, the market risk-sentiment is improving gradually despite the coronavirus cases increased time by time, mainly due to the equities of China, which gained support on better than expected economic events. 

Today, the U.K. economic calendar looking empty due to the lack of activities. Therefore, traders will keep their eyes on the Nonfarm Productivity and Average Labor Costs to determine the next movement in the market. 

Besides, the U.S. Jobless Claims and comments from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan will be a pivotal event to watch today. The headlines regarding coronavirus and U.K. politics will keep the driver seats.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2782
  • S2 1.2896
  • S3 1.2949

Pivot Point 1.301

  • R1 1.3063
  • R2 1.3123
  • R3 1.3237

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD broke below 1.3050 support is to test the next support level of 1.2965. It’s the most crucial level for the GBP/USD as a violation of this level can lead Sterling prices further down towards 1.2900 and 1.2830 in the coming week.  

At the moment, the GBP/USD has formed three black crows candles above 1.2960 support level, which is suggesting a bearish trend in the GBP/USD. The MACD and RSI are holding in the bearish zone, supporting selling bias for the GBP/USD pair. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY gained 0.2% to 109.79, posting a three-day rally. The USD/JPY flashing green but still trading below the 110 level because traders await the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data at the end of the week for more evidence of a hotter economic performance. 

The USD/JPY is trading at 109.96, representing 0.16% gains on the day and consolidates in the range between the 109.72 – 109.97. The pair rose to 109.80 from the 109.30, mainly due to the report that Chinese researchers have produced a medicine that will use in treating the coronavirus.

It is worth to mention that the pair’s buyers continue to struggle to cross the 110 level. On the other hand, the U.S. bond yields rose during the trading day despite the recovery in the U.S. on Wall street. 

Whereas, the U.S. 10-year yields led global bonds, putting on +6bps to test 1.66% (1.58% to 1.64% after the news came that Chinese researchers had developed a drug that was useful in treating the coronavirus).

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 108.57
  • S2 109.12
  • S3 109.47

Pivot Point 109.66

  • R1 110.02
  • R2 110.2
  • R3 110.75

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Thursday, the USD/JPY pair is trading with a bullish bias in the wake of weakening Japanese yen. The pair has crossed over 109.300 resistance level, and it seems to head towards 109.850. On Wednesday, the USD/JPY is likely to find resistance around 110.300 after violating 109.850. While support remains at 109.250.  

The RSI and MACD have crossed over in the buying zone and are supporting the bullish bias. Let’s look for buying trades above 109.26 today.

All the best for today! 

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Forex Assets

Everything You Should Know To Trade The GBP/USD Forex Pair

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Currency pairs are classified as major, minor, exotic, etc. Major currencies pairs are those pairs that involve the US dollar as one of the currencies. These currencies typically have high liquidity and volatility. GBPUSD is one such example. It is the currency pair where Great Britain Pound is traded against the US dollar.

In this article, we shall be covering all the basic fundamentals which are essential to know before trading this pair. And before getting into the specifications of this pair, let us first understand what actually the price of GBPUSD signifies.

In GBPUSD, GBP is the base currency, and USD is the quote currency. The value (price) of the pair determines the units of USD required to purchase one unit of GBP. For example, if the current value of GBPUSD is 1.3100, then the trader must possess the US $1.3100 to buy 1 Pound.

GBP/USD Specification

Spread

Spread is simply the difference between the bid price and the ask price. The spread depends on the type of account.

Spread on ECN: 0.7

Spread on STP: 1.3

Fees

Again, the fee depends on the type of account. Typically, there is no fee charged by STP accounts. There is a trading fee on ECN account, which depends from broker to broker.

Slippage

Forex is very liquid and volatile. Hence, this causes slippage. Slippage is the difference between the price requested by the trader and the actual price the trader received. And this depends on the broker’s execution speed and volatility of the market. The slippage in major currency pairs is usually within 0.5 and 5 pips.

Trading Range in GBPUSD

As a trader, it is vital to know the number of pips a currency pair moves in a period of time. This is basically the volatility in the currency pair. And volatility is one of the factors which are helpful in risk management.

The volatility is measured in terms of percentage or pips. For example, if the volatility on the 1H timeframe of GBPUSD is 15 pips, then one can expect to gain or lose $150 (15 pip x $10 per pip) within a time period of few fours.

Below is a table that depicts the minimum, average, and maximum volatility (pip movement) on different timeframes.

EUR/USD PIP RANGES

Procedure to assess Pip Ranges

  1. Add the ATR indicator to your chart
  2. Set the period to 1
  3. Add a 200-period SMA to this indicator
  4. Shrink the chart so you can assess a large time period
  5. Select your desired timeframe
  6. Measure the floor level and set this value as the min
  7. Measure the level of the 200-period SMA and set this as the average
  8. Measure the peak levels and set this as Max.

(originally posted in our article here)

GBPUSD Cost as a Percent of the Trading Range

A Forex broker usually levies three type of charges for each trade. They are:

  • Slippage
  • Spread
  • Trading Fee

The sum of all the three costs will generate the total trading cost for one trade.

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee

Note: All costs are in terms of pips.

To bring up an application to the above volatility table, we bind these values with the total cost and find the cost variations (in terms of percentages) on different timeframes. And these percentages prove to be helpful in choosing the right timeframe with minimal costs.

ECN Model Account

Spread = 0.7 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 1

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 0.7 + 1

Total cost = 3.7

STP Model Account

Spread = 1.3 | Slippage = 2 | Trading fee = 0

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading Fee = 2 + 1.3 + 0

Total cost = 3.3

The Ideal Timeframe to Trade GBPUSD

Above are tables that illustrate the cost ranges in terms of percentage. Let us now comprehend the tables and figure out the ideal timeframe to trade this currency pair. From the above table, it is evident that the cost is highest (74% and 66%) in the 1H timeframe when the volatility is low. Hence, it is not ideal to pick the 1H timeframe when the volatility is around 5 pips (minimum).

On the flip side of things, the cost percentages are minimal on the 1M timeframe. Traders with a long term perspective on the market can invest with minimum costs.

Intraday traders, on the other hand, can pick the 1H, 2H, 4H, or the 1D timeframe when the volatility of the market is above average.

Another point to consider is that slippage eats up the costs significantly. So, it is recommended to plan strategies that involve placing of limit orders and not market orders.

As proof, below is a table that clearly shows the reduction in the cost percentages when the slippage is made NIL.

Total cost = Slippage + Spread + Trading fee = 0 + 0.7 + 1

Total cost = 1.7

Comparing these values to the table with slippage=2, it can be ascertained that the cost percentage has reduced by a considerable amount. Hence, all in all, it is ideal to trade by placing limit orders rather than executing at the market price.

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX. Analysis, December 17 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on UK Labor Market Figures! 

On Tuesday, the market trades with a risk-off sentiment as investors are still waiting for clarity about Brexit and Trade deal between the U.S. and China. The U.S. dollar was steady against other major currencies, with the ICE Dollar Index closing flat on the day at 97.15.

On Tuesday, the market trades with a risk-off sentiment as investors are still waiting for clarity about Brexit and Trade deal between the U.S. and China. The U.S. dollar was steady against other major currencies, with the ICE Dollar Index closing flat on the day at 97.15.

On Tuesday, the market trades with a risk-off sentiment as investors are still waiting for clarity about Brexit and Trade deal between the U.S. and China. The U.S. dollar was steady against other major currencies, with the ICE Dollar Index closing flat on the day at 97.15.

China’s official data showed that industrial production rose 6.2% on year in November (+5.0% expected), and retail sales grew 8.0% (+7.6% expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

Economic Calendar by TradingView

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

Today in the early Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair flashing green and trading on the bullish track but failed to cross the 200-day moving average despite the fresh trade truce between the United States and China. The EUR/USD is presently trading at 1.1147, having faced rejection at the 200-day Moving Average at 1.1152. 

However, the EUR currency has repeatedly failed to close above the 200-day MA. For example, the Euro currency picked up a strong buying on Friday and climbed to a high of 1.12 only to end the day with moderate losses at 1.1118. 

Regarding U.S. economic data, the Empire Manufacturing Index posted 3.5 for December (below the 4.0 expected, up from 2.9 in November). The Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (preliminary reading) declined slightly to 52.5 in December (below 52.6 expected) from 52.6 in November.

The monthly United States Housing Starts and Building Permits are scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT on Tuesday. The Eurozone Trade Balance (Oct), scheduled for release at 10:00 GMT, is unlikely to move markets. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1079
  • S2 1.1111
  • S1 1.1127

Pivot Point 1.1143

  • R1 1.1159
  • R2 1.1175
  • R3 1.1207

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

Just like the rest of the forex pairs, the EUR/USD hasn’t made much progress on Monday despite a mixture of PMI data. The EUR/USD is trading with a slightly bullish above the bullish trendline, which is supporting the EUR/USD above 1.1125. Extension of a bullish bias above 1.1125 can keep EUR/USD optimistic until 1.1160 and 1.1185. The EUR/USD’s next support prevails around 1.1095 today,

 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and representing more than 60 pips decline to 1.3265, having hit the low of 1.3236 during the Asian trading hours. The bearish bias came mainly due to hard Brexit fears. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3295 and consolidates in the range between the 1.3236 – 1.3339. Looking ahead, the GBP/USD pair could come under pressure due to fresh Brexit concerns.

It should be noted that the victory of conservatives will help the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson to pass the Bill to rule out European Union transition beyond 2020. The Departure Agreement Bill (WAB) is widely expected to be put for a 2nd reading in the House of Commons on this Friday.

Whereas, the Conservatives leader Boris Jonhson will not hesitate to repeat his promise regarding leave the region with deal or without a deal before 2020 ends. Despite that, the United Kingdom Prime Minster has repeatedly promoted the idea of the Canda-style free trade agreement, and UK PM will likely push for the same after the Bill gets the Parliaments’ approval.

Comments came from Robert Peterson that the PM Boris Johnson is committed to passing the Tory manifesto commitment to end the transition in just over a year from now. 

Looking forward, investors will seek more hints of the recent declines in the GBP from the political headlines. However, the traders will keep their eyes on the releases of the UK employment figures. A busy week of the UK calendar is worth watching ahead of the Bank of England policy meeting on Thursday. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to tick up to 3.9%, whereas wages growth eases a little to 3.4% YoY,” says Westpac ahead of the data release.

Daily Support and Resistance 

  • R3: 1.3722
  • R2: 1.3548
  • R1: 1.3441

Pivot Point 1.3374

  • S1: 1.3267
  • S2: 1.32
  • S3: 1.3025

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading bearish below 1.3362 as the pair seems to go for a retracement until 1.3240, which marks a 61.8% Fibonacci level. At the same mark, the 50 periods EMA is likely to support the GBP/USD. 

The RSI and MACD are holding in the buying zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal upon completion of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Today, consider taking buying trades above 1.3190 and bearish trades below 1.3274. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is struggling to extend its recovery rally because the markets want more clarity about the fresh optimism surrounding the phase-one trade deal and Brexit concerns. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.56 and consolidates in the range between 109.50 – 109.63. 

Even after the fresh trade truce of the Sino-US Phase-one deal, the United States and China trade relationships are still being termed as noisy ceasefire by the South China morning post.

On the other hand, ITV’s Robert Peterson thinks the risk of hard Brexit because the United Kingdom’s (UK) Prime Minister (PM) will soon forward the Bill that supports no transition delay beyond 2020.

Moreover, the risk tone gets heavier because the United States’ ten-year treasury yields decline to 1.87%, whereas the S&P 500 Futures losses 0.14% to 3,193 by the press time.

Apart from the trade/Brexit headlines, monetary policy meetings by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and headline inflation will also entertain momentum traders during this week. Whereas the BOJ is not expected to change the current monetary policy, appreciation of the latest fiscal measures will likely support the Japanese yen (JPY) to strengthen further on Thursday. Moreover, Friday’s inflation data will probably keep exerting downside pressure on the Japanese currency.

The currency pair ignored the sluggish activity data from the United States during the Monday as risk-on sentiment increased due to optimism surrounding the United States and China trade deal. Looking forward, today’s United States Industrial Production, Fed speak, and housing market data can offer immediate direction to the pair movement.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.91
  • S2 109.22
  • S1 109.39

Pivot Point 109.53

  • R1 109.7
  • R2 109.84
  • R3 110.15

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the technical side, the buyers await a clear break of the monthly high surrounding 109.75 to target 110.00 and May month high near 110.70. Meanwhile, 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 109.00 holds the key to fresh declines towards the 108.45/40 support area.

The pair is heading towards the double top resistance level of around 109.700. Below this, the USD/JPY is likely to show a bearish correction of up to 38.2% level, which stays at 109.200. On the higher side, the bullish breakout of USD/JPY can lead the Japanese pair towards 110.300. The MACD and RSI are in support of the bullish trend. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX. Analysis, December 16 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eurozone’s PMI Figure Drives! 

The US Dollar Index was broadly flat at 97.17. The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1121. Later today, research firm Markit will post December eurozone Manufacturing PMI (47.3 expected) and Services PMI (52.0 expected). The USD/JPY edged up 0.1% to 109.38.

The US Dollar Index was broadly flat at 97.17. The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1121. Later today, research firm Markit will post December eurozone Manufacturing PMI (47.3 expected) and Services PMI (52.0 expected). The USD/JPY edged up 0.1% to 109.38.

The US Dollar Index was broadly flat at 97.17. The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1121. Later today, research firm Markit will post December eurozone Manufacturing PMI (47.3 expected) and Services PMI (52.0 expected). The USD/JPY edged up 0.1% to 109.38.

Regarding U.S. economic data, retail sales rose 0.2% on month in November (below the +0.5% expected, +0.4% in October). Import prices increased 0.2% on month (as expected, -0.5% in October).

Later today, the Empire Manufacturing Index for December (5.0 expected) and the Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (52.6 expected) will be reported.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

AUD/USD – Daily Analysis

The AUD/USD currency pair seen unchanged and consolidates in the narrow trading range between the 0.6875 – 0.6878. The currency pair remains depressed despite the fresh optimism over the Sino-US trade deal. As of writing, the Aussie currency pair is currently trading at 0.6875.

The AUD/USD currency pair picked up a buying near 0.6775 following the consumer spending data, which represented a rise in retail sales by 8% year-on-year during November, crossing the forecasted growth of 7.6% by a big range.

Industrial production rose 6.2% compared to an expected rise of 5%, marking an improvement from October’s 4.7%. Moreover, the People’s Bank of China has injected 300 billion Yuan into the system via a one-year medium-term lending facility. 

The AUD/USD currency pair did not succeed to gain on its early positive move and saw a dramatic intraday turnaround on Friday. Moreover, the uncertainty regarding the US President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel the December 15 tariff-hike on Chinese imports weighed heavily on the China-proxy Australian dollar, causing a drop in AUD/USD pair around 75 pips from an intraday high level of 0.6938 the highest since July 26.

The bullish sentiment remains weak, possibly due to the reports that Beijing is planning to lower its 2020 gross domestic product target to 6% from the current year’s 6.5%. 

Looking forward, the worries of a deeper recession in China in 2020 will likely continue to overshadow the phase one US-China trade deal and send the AUD lower.

Daily Support and Resistance  

  • S3 0.6759
  • S2 0.6824
  • S1 0.685

Pivot Point 0.6889

  • R1 0.6915
  • R2 0.6954
  • R3 0.7019

AUD/USD– Trading Tips

The AUD/USD pair is hanging around 0.6900, trading mostly bullish despite staying in the overbought zone. The traded higher further above the 0.6865 mark, the 61.8% Fibo retracement level of its November slide. In the 4-hour chart, the 20 SMA has hastened north over the bigger ones, all of them under the current mark. In contrast, the technical indicators lead to the north in overbought territory, without indications of bullish exhaustion. The rally is set to remain on a break over 0.6930, the next resistance.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair still found on the bullish track and remain supportive mainly due to the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson win who promised to leave the European Union (EU) swiftly before January 31, 2020. 

The GBP/USD currency pair traded bullish at 1.3388 and representing sizeable gains of +0.50%, having hit the high of 1.3398. By the way, the pair consolidates in the range between 1.3337 – 1.3398.

Prime Minister Johnson will welcome 109 new Conservative lawmakers to parliament and will repeat his promise to increase funding to the state health service on the day.

Moreover, the GBP/USD currency pair is also supported by the increased expectations of an improvement in the UK’s manufacturing sector activity, as the Markit Preliminary Manufacturing PMI for December is seen arriving at 49.4 against. 48.9 previous. The country’s Services PMI is expected to reach at 49.6 against. 49.3 last.

At the greenback front, markets still unexcited despite the details of the US-China Phase One trade deal. The US dollar index now tests the 97 handles, retreating from Friday’s highs of 97.24.

The GBP currency buyers will keep up the buying because the UK looks to clear the Brexit departure Agreement in the parliament before Christmas. In contrast, the Bank of England (BOE) may signal a willingness to change course on the monetary policy, with the United Kingdom election out of the way.             

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3025
  • S2 1.32
  • S1 1.3267

Pivot Point 1.3374

  • R1 1.3441
  • R2 1.3548
  • R3 1.3722

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is presently consolidating around at1.3457, placing around 19-month high to 1.3515 during the US session yesterday. The UK election exit polls foretelling a big win for the incumbent Prime Minister Boris Johnson. 

The GBP/USD pair’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is now floating around 80.47. I must say it’s the highest mark since January 2018. An above 70-reading shows overbought situations. Consider capturing retracement below 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the bullish track and representing some moderate gains mainly due to fresh trade optimism between the United States and China. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 109.38 and consolidates in the range of 109.31 – 109.44.

Notably, the currency pair had some good 2-way price moves on Friday and was impressed by the full market risk-on sentiment, which turned out to be one of the major reasons that affected the Japanese yen’s as a perceived safe-haven status. 

However, the USD/JPY pair quickly reversed an early decline to sub-109.00 levels and recovered to multi-month highs in the wake of optimism of UK Parliamentary elections.

However, the bullish momentum failed near the 109.70 regions after the disappointing release of the United States’ monthly retail sales data, which kept the greenback buyers on the defensive.]The uncertainty regarding the United States President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel the December 15 tariff-hike on Chinese imports further helped to the pair’s intraday pullback of around 35-40 pips.

It should be noted that the USD/JPY currency pair finally closed unchanged for the day but succeeded in recovering some positive traction. That might have been due to the United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer’s comments on Sunday, saying that the phase-one Sino-US trade deal is done. Under the agreement, China said it would increase agricultural purchases due to the US’ decision not to attempt a new round of tariffs.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.42
  • S2 108.92
  • S1 109.13

Pivot Point 109.42

  • R1 109.63
  • R2 109.92
  • R3 110.42

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY rose 0.8% to 109.40 as investors’ risk appetite grew. The pair is heading towards the double top resistance level of around 109.700. Below this, the USD/JPY is likely to show a bearish correction of up to 38.2% level, which stays at 109.200. 

On the higher side, the bullish breakout of USD/JPY can lead the Japanese pair towards 110.300. The MACD and RSI are in support of the bullish trend. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 27 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. GDP In Play! 

The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed on Tuesday, closing relatively flat on the day at 98.25. The euro gained 0.1% to $1.1022. The German GfK Consumer Confidence Index edged

The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed on Tuesday, closing relatively flat on the day at 98.25. The euro gained 0.1% to $1.1022. The German GfK Consumer Confidence Index edged

The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed on Tuesday, closing relatively flat on the day at 98.25. The euro gained 0.1% to $1.1022. The German GfK Consumer Confidence Index edged up to 9.7 in December (9.6 expected and in November).

On the fundamental’s front, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 125.5 in November (127.0 expected) from 126.1 in October. Wholesale inventories rose 0.2% on month in October (as expected), while new home sales fell to an annualized rate of 733,000 units (705,000 units estimated) from 738,000 units in September. Let’s took at today’s trade setups. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing red and hit the record lows to trade below the seven months lows. At the moment, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1015.

The reason behind decreased uncertainty could be the recent progress in the United States and China trade deal, which is likely to resolve issues. 

For now, the focus is likely to be on the U.S. data Q3 GDP, Personal Spending (Oct), Durable Goods Orders (Oct), Weekly Jobless Claims. The 3rd-quarter annualized GDP is forecasted to be unchanged at 1.9%. The economy increased by 2% and 3.1% in the 2nd and the 1st quarter as well.

With that being said, a prolonged period of low volatility often paves the way for a big move on either side. The level of uncertainty will drop if both nations reach a trade agreement. This ultimately can drive a significant drop in the common currency against the U.S. dollar. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0959
  • S2 1.0988
  • S1 1.1001
  • Pivot Point 1.1017
  • R1 1.103
  • R2 1.1045
  • R3 1.1074

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On the technical side, indicating the route of least resistance is to the bearish. The 14-day relative strength index is suggesting selling conditions with as the RSI value holds below 50, and the daily MACD histogram is again printing deeper bars below the zero line, a sign of strengthening bearish momentum. The double bottom pattern on the 4-hour chart is extending support to the direct currency pair. Let’s look for staying bullish above or bearish below 1.1000 level today to target 1.1055 on the upper side and 1.0985 on the lower side. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair found on the bearish track and still on the backfoot while dropping 1.2850, mainly due to showing depreciation in the ruling Conservative Party lead. The greenback strength leaves a negative impact on the GBP/USD currency pair.

The Tory announcement is already under criticism for its lack of defense, failure to mention promises on the National Healthcare System (NHS), and Brexit’s deadline is keeping the political depression for the ruling party. The Independent says that former senior judge blames the United Kingdom’s (U.K.) ‘s current Prime Minister for his reckless private life.

On the other hand, the United States President Donald Trump continues its hopes of a phase-one deal with China even after the media releases from Beijing that blamed the U.S. for unfair behavior. The greenback stays on the bullish track across the board because investors still trust the U.S. dollar during the risk-on sentiment.

For now, there is no significant data and event is scheduled to release from the United Kingdom, the United States economic calendar is full of critical figures ranging from the 2nd-version on 3rd-quarter (Q3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to October month Durable Goods Orders. The markets will keep their eyes on the U.S. Personnel Income and Spending, coupled with the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index.

Ahead of the data, T.D. Securities anticipates the Core PCE to stay around 0.7% YoY whereas also expecting Durable Goods Orders to recover to -1.0%.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2748
  • S2 1.2818
  • S1 1.2859
  • Pivot Point 1.2887
  • R1 1.2928
  • R2 1.2956
  • R3 1.3025

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD is now heading lower to test the triple bottom support area of 1.2820. The cable seems to close a tweezers bottom pattern on the 2-hour chart, which is famous for driving a bullish trend in the market. So here we can expect GBP/USD to trade bullish above 1.2820 to target 1.2880 later today. 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair found on the bullish track, extending its recent recovery rally. As of writing, the currency pair currently trading at 109.15. The USD/JPY pair hit the two-weeks high during the Asian session mainly due to the positive headlines which came out from the United States and China regarding trade deal.

The pair closed beyond 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since early November because the market’s risk sentiment further improved. Traders, the primary reason behind such a drop in uncertainty is increasing expectations that the United States (U.S.) and China will soon sign an initial, or phase-one, trade deal.

Elsewhere, the new trade headlines came from the United States President Donald Trump that we are very close to making a deal with China. The South China Morning Post’s (SCMP) story highlights the Commerce Secretary’s order to protect telecommunication networks and their supply chains from national security warnings. Though, the same fails to get much of the attention.

At the Fed front, the positive comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell and Governor Lael Brainard also supported the USD/JPY currency pair. Notably, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell praised the current economic status and the present monetary policy, whereas Governor Brainard said that the economic risk outlook still weak, but the sentiment seems to be improving. 

Traders did not give much focus on the comment from the President of the Federal Reserve bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, that the United States economy has a good opportunity to grow by 25 in the coming year. Still, unfortunately, the growth in the 4th-quarter is going to be weak.

The 2nd version of the 3rd-quarter US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and October month Durable Goods Orders will be closely observed in the U.S. economic calendar as well as the comments from the Bank of Joana board member Makoto Sakurai, and trade headlines can be kept for intermediate direction.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 109.38
  • R2: 109
  • R1: 108.77
  • Pivot Point 108.61
  • S1: 108.39
  • S2: 108.23
  • S3: 107.84

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 109.100, and it has just violated the horizontal resistance area of 109. The closings of bullish candles above 109 mark are suggesting further buying until 109.300 and 109.450. Besides, the MACD and RSI are still holding in the bullish zone. Consider taking buying trades over 109 to target 109.35 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 25 – Major Trade Setups – Stronger Dollar In Play! 

The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day to 98.27, lifted by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. The euro slid 0.3% to $1.1024. The Markit eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted 46.6

The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day to 98.27, lifted by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. The euro slid 0.3% to $1.1024. The Markit eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted 46.6

The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day to 98.27, lifted by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. The euro slid 0.3% to $1.1024. The Markit eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted 46.6 in November (46.4 expected, 45.9 in October), while Services PMI declined to 51.5 (52.4 expected) from 52.2.

The sentiment was lifted after Chinese President Xi Jinping called for Beijing and Washington to strengthen communications.

Regarding U.S. economic data, the Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (preliminary reading) posted 52.2 in November (51.4 expected, 51.3 in October). The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (final reading) came in at 96.8 (95.7 expected).

  

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing red and will likely hit the bearish level below 1.10 on the day if the German IFO data ignore expectations. 

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair dropped from 1.1058 to 1.1014. At the end of the week, the EUR/USD was seen trading as a bearish at 1.1097, in the wake of mixed German PMIs and the dismal Eurozone PMIs. It should be noted that European Central Banks President Christianne Lagarde said the global economic uncertainty is high and asked for a fiscal boost, as required.

The recent bearish high setup will likely retest of 1.10. The pairs bearish sentiment is likely to be stronger due to the fading United States and China’s optimism. Whereas the United States and China phase-one trade deal seems not to happen soon, by the way, both nations struggling to reach on a positive outcome. Notably, the German economy has paid a heavy price for the year-long trade tensions.

The greenback found on the bullish track in the wake of unexpectedly better U.S. Markit PMIs and a bullish revision to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment.

According to the situation, there are very low reasons for the shared currency traders to take a buying under the single currency on the day, and the support at 1.10 will be likely to be failed if the German IFOs miss expectations, which is scheduled to release 09:00 GMT.

That German economy is suffering recession risk is generally accepted by now. So, the forward-looking IFO – Expectations (Nov) index will take priority over the Business Climate and the Current Assessment number. The Expectation index is seen reading at 92.5 against 91.5 in October.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0894

S2 1.0967

S1 1.0993

Pivot Point 1.104

R1 1.1066

R2 1.1113

R3 1.1187

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD traded as we forecast to drop to 1.1010 level after forming a bearish hammer candle during the previous week. For the moment, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1020 level and has developed a bullish engulfing pattern on the 2-hour chart. It’s suggesting strong chances of a bullish reversal until 1.1040 and 1.1060 the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci resistance areas. Let’s consider staying bullish above 1.1015 level today to target 1.1050. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair found on the bearish track and currently trading at 1.2850. The Cable pair got the support from the polls showing a hike in Tory support for the December snap election before losing ground due to doubts arising from the ruling party’s latest announcement.

During the weekend, the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson released the ruling Conservative Party’s announcement that offers many austerity measures apart from smooth Brexit. Notably, the party’s commitments regarding a National Healthcare System (NHS) budget by £33.9 billion by 2023-24, an offer of 50,000 nurses and not to increase rates of income tax, national insurance or VAT till the next five years took significant attention.

However, the latest series of polls keep the Conservatives at the front seat with more than 10% points of a lead over other parties.

The GBP/USD currency pair was found on the strong bearish track on Friday, mainly due to preliminary figures of activity number keep portraying the markets Brexit fears. On the other side,

the same conflicts with the United States statistic that kept the U.S. dollar.

At the greenback front, the strong buying in the greenback came mainly due to optimism surrounding the United States and China trade deal after the United States President Donald Trump said that the trade deal with China is very close. Although the confidence remains under check with the Donald Trump administration’s willingness to take a good look at the Hong Kong bill, which in turn could resume the conflict between the U.S. and China, whereas also negatively affecting the trade negotiations.

The United Kingdom CBI Distributive Trade Survey and the United States Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index, as well as the US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, will keep under the spotlight. Moreover, the market will keep their eyes on the trade and political headlines for fresh impulse.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2651

S2 1.2756

S1 1.2794

Pivot Point 1.2862

R1 1.29

R2 1.2967

R3 1.3073

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

On Monday, the GBP/USD has opened higher to 1.2865 following a massive fall to 1.2822 on Friday, which would yield consolidation ahead of another bearish wave from 1.2985 extends to 1.2775. 

Lets us reckon Nov’s low of 1.2769 as it supports the GBP/USD around the same level if 1.2825 level gets violated. Consider staying bearish below 1.2895 level today. 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is flashing green and found on the bullish track despite few headlines during the weekend regarding geopolitical themes that have kept markets on alert. At of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 108.66 and consolidates in the narrow range of 108.63 and 108.69.

The market’s focus, as described in this week’s Asia open. Recap of latest progress as risk-on tones appear with trade wars and Brexit. The fresh news is slightly more favorable for risk appetite, possibly reducing the Japanese yen’s progress for the time being with USD/JPY moving between 108.48 and 108.76 on Friday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is bid on its right after dome promising data from Friday. U.S. November flash Markit PMIs contrasted with the European and U.K.’s releases, beating expectations manufacturing climbed to 51.6 (vs. est. 51.0, prior 50.6), and services rose to 52.5 (est. 51.4, prior 51.3).

For the U.S. calendar, we have the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index data, which analysts at T.D. Securities said suggest core PCE inflation could remain steady at 1.7% YoY in October, even after a notable MoM increase in healthcare prices. On the other hand, headline PCE likely rose a tenth to 1.4% YoY. Separately, we expect personal spending to advance 0.2% MoM for a 3rd-consecutive month in October, with a firm increase in services spending leading the upside.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.11

S2 108.37

S1 108.51

Pivot Point 108.62

R1 108.77

R2 108.88

R3 109.13

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.700, and it has just violated the triple top resistance area of 108.600. The closings of bullish candles above 108.600 level are extending support to the safe-haven currency USD/JPY. With this, the market opens further room for buying until 109.090 for the USD/JPY pair. Besides, the MACD and RSI are still holding in the bullish zone. 

Consider taking buying trades over 108.650 to target 109 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 14 – Major Trade Setups – German Prelim GDP In Focus! 

On Thursday, the safe-haven demand remains high as the trader’s eyes stay on the United States and China trade news to observe the impact on the riks sentiment, which continues

On Thursday, the safe-haven demand remains high as the trader’s eyes stay on the United States and China trade news to observe the impact on the riks sentiment, which continues

On Thursday, the safe-haven demand remains high as the trader’s eyes stay on the United States and China trade news to observe the impact on the riks sentiment, which continues to play an impactable role in the USD/JPY currency par prices. The market will closely be observing the US producer Prices Index an Unemployment Claims data, which is scheduled to release ahead of day 2 of Powell’s testimony.

At the Hong Kong front, the Hong Kong civil unrest and violence take the worst turn for the 4th-straight day on Thursday, after the police reported that a man dressed in black and aged in his 30s died.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

   

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair currently trading near the level of 1.1006 on the day. Even after the pair spot staying below 200-bar Simple Moving Average, the EUR/USD currency pair bounces off 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its October month upward. 

However, the buyers will likely wait for a bullish break of 200-bar moving Average at 1.1058 now, followed by 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and late-October lows surrounding 1.1065/75, to target 1.1100 marks.

On the positive side, if the GDP positive release, the pair may attempt recovery of 1.1040 and 1.156, the confluence zone of the 50 and 10-DMA. Buyers will likely try for the test of the 100-day Moving Average at 1.1100 on a continues break above the last. 

On the technical side, the pairs Techincal st up continues to favor the buyers because the EUR/USD pair still on the track to test the immediate support of mid-October lows near the 1.0991. While the break bellow will likely escalate selling pressure, because of the buyer’s eyes 1.0950 as the next support, the more bearish trend in pairs could hit the multi-year lows of 1.0879 over again.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0958

S2 1.0983

S1 1.0996

Pivot Point 1.1008

R1 1.1021

R2 1.1033

R3 1.1058

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD continues to trade lower, maintaining a bearish bias after violating the support level of 1.1000. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has inside down candlestick pattern, which is signaling chances of further sell-off in the market. 

For the moment, the EUR/USD is holding below a crucial trading level of 1.1000 as below this; the pair can continue falling until 1.0960. So consider staying bearish below 1.1000 level today.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair sideways and taking round to 12840 mainly due to optimism surrounding the United Kingdom political plays face the greenback strength ahead of the United Kingdom Retail Sales Data for October.

Brexit party leader Nigel Farage’s denial of the Conservative’s request of standing down more than 317 candidates, earlier promised, will likely negatively affect the British Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s popularity. The United Kingdom’s (UK) PM Boris Johnson was recently hackled during a speech to the flood-affected area. Whereas, surveys regarding the December election keep showing Tories holding power.

Looking forward to October, UK Retail Sales could boost the GBP/USD demand if it hit the upbeat predictions. However, the market’s rush to risk-safety can increase the USD gains if the Fed Chair support upside momentum during his Testimony 2.0.

Overview of UK Retail Sales, the UK retail sales, scheduled to be released later this session at 0930 GMT, is forecasted to come in at 0.2% MoM in October, after no increase seen in September. Total retail sales are seen coming at 3.7% over the year in the reported month, up from 3.1% booked previously.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2767

S2 1.2806

S1 1.2829

Pivot Point 1.2845

R1 1.2868

R2 1.2884

R3 1.2923

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is consolidating in the broad trading range of 1.2970 – 1.2780, while if we narrow it down, it becomes 1.2870 – 1.2785. The MACD and RSI have passed above 0 and 50, sequentially, indicating the probabilities of a downward movement in the GBP/USD. 

At the moment, the GBP/USD trades at 1.2835 level, and it may find support around 1.2785. I will consider taking buying positions above 1.2845 and selling below the same level today. 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair failed to hit the recovery track from thee 6-days lows of 108.65 and still stands near the range of 108.80 area, mainly due to on-going trade uncertainty between the United States and China. On the other hand, the pairs didn’t get any impact by the Japans Q3 GDP because of the renewed Sino-US trade war.

The Japanese Preliminary Q3 GDP rate slightly increased even less-than-expected across the time limit. However, the Japanese yen currency gave little attention to the sluggish figure releases. The Japanese yen continued getting support from the risk-off sentiment in Wall Street’s futures and global equities mainly after the United States and China trade tension again escalated during the overnight trading hours.

Trader’s eyes stay on the United States and China trade news to observe the impact on the riks sentiment, which continues to play an impactable role in the USD/JPY currency par prices. The market will closely be observing the US producer Prices Index an Unemployment Claims data, which is scheduled to release ahead of day 2 of Powell’s testimony.

At the Hong Kong front, the Hong Kong civil unrest and violence take the worst turn for the 4th-straight day on Thursday, after the police reported that a man dressed in black and aged in his 30s died.

Despite the Hong Kong confusion and renewed US-China trade tensions, the market mood looks to be developing over the last, with S&P 500 futures having flashed green as well as the Japanese stocks. This has helped put a minor buying under USD/JPY that is now trading in session highs near the 108.85 regions.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.87

S2 108.37

S1 108.57

Pivot Point 108.86

R1 109.06

R2 109.36

R3 109.85

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.70, right above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This level also marks double bottom support and may keep the USD/JPY pair supported today.

The violation of the 108.700 level can extend selling until 108.500, the 61.8% Fibo level today. The MACD and RSI are also supporting the bearish trend in the USD/JPY pair. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily November 08– Major Trade Setups – Risk on Sentiment Dominates 

The United States and China trade deal optimism supported the risk-on markets and came to a massive increase in the US Treasury yields, sent the greenback higher.

A report came

The United States and China trade deal optimism supported the risk-on markets and came to a massive increase in the US Treasury yields, sent the greenback higher.

A report came

The United States and China trade deal optimism supported the risk-on markets and came to a massive increase in the US Treasury yields, sent the greenback higher.

A report came that both countries decided to cancel some existing tariff if the round-1 trade deal happened on a positive outcome. It should be noted that the United States’ ten-year yields increased from 1.80% to 1.97%. This is the highest level since August 1.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair remains to flash red and dropped for the 4th-consecutive day but didn’t hit below the 50-day average level. Moreover, the bullish trend could be seen in the pair because the Treasury yields are increasing in the wake of mild losses in the US dollar index futures.

As we all well aware, the shared currency faced many selling pressure yesterday, as anticipated, and fell near the 50-day average range at 1.1038. The US Treasury yields increased, sent the US Dollar higher, due to the fresh United States and China trade optimism. 

A report came that both countries decided to cancel some existing tariff if the round-1 trade deal happened on a positive outcome. It should be noted that the United States’ ten-year yields increased from 1.80% to 1.97%. This is the highest level since August 1.

Currently, the futures on the S&P 500 are reporting a 0.18% decline, and the United States ten-year yield is seen at 1.91%, down 6-basis points from Thursday’s high.

On the flip side, the German trade balance and the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index are scheduled to release and will likely leave an impact on the EUR/USD pair. As well as, the China trade data fro October release during the Asian trading hours represented declines in the imports.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1018

S2 1.1047

S1 1.1056

Pivot Point 1.1075

R1 1.1084

R2 1.1103

R3 1.1131

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is consolidating with a bearish bias since it broke the bullish trendline support around 1.1125 area. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair has formed strong bearish channels, which are signaling chances of further selling in the market. 

At the moment, the EUR/USD is focusing on a crucial trading level of 1.1060 level, which is likely to determine the further direction of the pair. Below this level, the EUR/USD may gain support at 1.1040 and 1.1010 level today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency currently flashing green, but the overall sentiment remains bearish. As of writing the GBP/USD currency pair presently trading at 1.2822, having increased just more than ten pips a few minutes ago because the banks of England’s monetary policy decision has calm down now.

The main reason behind the GBP/USD currency pairs bearish sentiment is that the monetary policy decision by the bank of England. The rates hit the weakest level since September 24 at 1.2793 due to the Bank of England MPC maintained the interest rates, whereas two members of Bank of England voted for a rate cut.

The wary comments from the Bank of England Governor Carney also hurt the GBP. He warned during signaling the risk of a global economic downturn that there would be losses in jobs and business closure in the wake of no-deal Brexit.

On the other hand, the United States and China trade deal optimism supported the risk-on markets and came to a massive increase in the US Treasury yields, sent the greenback higher. So, the GBP/USD currency pair also was seen at the bearish track due to the rise in demand for the US dollar.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2758

S2 1.2812

S1 1.2832

Pivot Point 1.2865

R1 1.2886

R2 1.2918

R3 1.2971

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD hasn’t improved enough as it extends to trade sideways ahead of the Bank of England policy decision. The MACD and RSI have crossed below 0 and 50, respectively, suggesting the chances of a bearish trend in the GBP/USD. But the thing is, investors are staying out of the market ahead of BOE rate. On the downside, the GBP/USD may see next support around 1.2786, and the violation of this level can extend sell-off until 1.2690. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is flashing green even after the positive Japanese data and the risk-on sentiment in the equity markets. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.35 and consolidates in the narrow range. By the way, the pair hit the high of 109.49 during the overnight trade. Notably, the pair gained its15-pips in the last few minutes.

As of data, Japan’s Household Spending surged 9.5% year-on-year in September, crossed the expected rise of 7.8% by a big margin and up significantly from the preceding month’s 1% rise. Labor Cash Earnings also rose 0.8% in annualized terms, bettering the 0.4% estimate.

However, the Japanese yen is not supportive, mainly due to the fears that the buyers spent more ahead of the October tax hike. Notably, the spending had increased by 7.2% in March 2014, month ahead of the prior sales tax increase, only to fall sharply and stay negative for more than a year.

According to the forecasting view, the USD/JPY currency pair will likely keep its tracking the action in the primary equity markets and US Treasury yields. The ten-year yield increased to 1.97% in the overnight trade since 3-months highs. China’s trade data may also affect the demand for the Japanese yen.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.34

S2 108.66

S1 108.82

Pivot Point 108.98

R1 109.14

R2 109.3

R3 109.62

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the technical side, the USD/JPY currency pair had shown the wrong direction to the buyers of the market during the last 48 hours as you know the pair dropped in 48 hours against the buyer’s expectations. The pair closed above the 200-day MA on Tuesday to fall back below the long-term MA in the overnight trade. Consider staying bullish above 

108.700 today.

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 28 – Major Trade Setups – Risk-off Sentiment Plays! 

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index climbed 0.2% on the day to 97.83 on Friday. Over the weekend, the trade negotiators of the U.S. and China “agreed to resolve their core

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index climbed 0.2% on the day to 97.83 on Friday. Over the weekend, the trade negotiators of the U.S. and China “agreed to resolve their core

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index climbed 0.2% on the day to 97.83 on Friday. Over the weekend, the trade negotiators of the U.S. and China “agreed to resolve their core concerns properly and confirmed that the technical consultations of some of the text agreement were completed,” as per the given report released by China’s Ministry of Commerce.

The pound lost 0.2% to $1.2823. It is reported that French President Emmanuel Macron blocked the European Union’s attempt to delay Brexit for three months. On Sunday, the media reported that the E.U. hopes to agree on Monday to delay Britain’s departure to January 31 with an option to exit earlier.

The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1080. The German IFO Business Climate Index was flat on the month at 94.6 in October (94.5 expected).

 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

Economic Calendar by TradingView

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair got some benefits from the news that the European Union is ready to permit a 3-months Brexit delay to the United Kingdom. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair taking buying to 1.2825 in the Asian trading hours.

The Guadian news agency freshly covered a story through saying that the European Union (E.U.) is ready to sign a deal that will offer a three-month Brexit delay, to January 31, 2020, with an option for the United Kingdom (U.K.) to leave earlier if a deal is approved.

 

The news reports reduced the scope of any further negotiations to the agreed deal with an option for the United Kingdom (U.K.) to leave earlier if a deal is approved.

Moreover, it also said that the United Kingdom has the responsibility to choose a candidate for the European Commission. The Prime Minister has said earlier that he will not present the nominee.

With the European Union on its way to reduce the scope of no-deal Brexit, a formal announcement will be expected during Monday’s European Union and British session to trigger drama in the United Kingdom, where signs for snap elections will be sparkled.

 

Notably, the greenback mostly supported by the recent positive sentiment between the United States and China trade talks and has Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September, -0.37 expected against 0.10 previous, up for publishing on the economic calendar.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2714

S2 1.2773

S1 1.28

Pivot Point 1.2832

R1 1.2859

R2 1.289

R3 1.2949

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

Following a bullish channel breakout, the GBP/USD pair is bearish at 1.2835 area. Overall, the Cable is keeping a choppy series of 1.2950 – 1.2785. On the 4-hour chart, the bearish engulfing pattern is expected to keep the GBP/USD prices towards 1.2785 area today. 

The MACD and RSI indicators are suggesting in the selling zone, maintaining the bearish trend in the GBP/USD. Consider staying bullish above 1.2832 today. 

 

XAU/USD – Daily Analysis

The safe-haven metal prices hit the bullish track despite the tension eased between the United States and China and reduce trade concerns as well. The U.S. Gold Futures gained 0.2% to $1,506.6. 

The yellow-metal prices are high, almost 17% on the year due to the investors runs toward the safe-haven assets in the wake of currency devaluations, slowdown fears, and other tension, including China and Iran.

The bullish trend in the gold prices came today even after the tension easing between the United States and China. As well as U.S. President Donald Trump said that the discussions with China have reached on the progressed track and gave a hint that deal is come to an end, as China wants to get a contract very seriously.

On the other hand, the United States Federal Reserve policy decision is scheduled to deliver on Wednesday, whereas the central bank is broadly expected to deliver its 3rd-rate cut during this year.

 

Instead, traders will be excited to know if the rate cut this week would be the end of the easing cycle, or if more cuts are on the cards.

The Federal Reserve rate cut decision is scheduled to deliver just an hour after the report on the United States’ 3rd-quarter GDP, which is anticipated to show that the economy increased 1.7% during the -months to September, decreasing from 25 during the 2nd quarter.


Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1472.9

S2 1490.32

S1 1497.42

Pivot Point 1507.74

R1 1514.84

R2 1525.16

R3 1542.58

XAU/USD – Trading Tips

 

Gold is trading bearish below 1,514 trading level, which is the triple top level. The gold price soared sharply to place a high around 1,517, but the gains were in checked, and gold slid to close nearby 1,505 level. 

On the daily chart, gold’s ascending triangle pattern of gold is yet intact, and it may retain gold bearish under 1,514 and bullish over 1,496 till the breakout occurs.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair found on the 3-week bullish rally since January 2018. Whereas, the pair has closed its trading session at 1.1079 on Friday, confirming a bearish break of the trendline connecting October 11 and October 15 highs. However, the EUR/USD currency pair may take a strong buying in the Europan trading hours due to trade optimism headlines. 

During the Friday, the United States officials said that the discussions with China have reached on the progressed track and gave a hint that the deal has come to an end. Moreover, President Donald Trump asked for congress to pass the USCMA trade pact and said that China wants a trade agreement.

On the other hand, the bullish trend in the EUR/USD currency pair could be limited due to Brexit uncertainty. Additionally, the strong bullish moves couldn’t be seen due to the data calendar has been dull in the European session, and investors may remain cautious ahead of Federal Reserves rate decision, which is scheduled to release on October 30. The market is expecting the 25-basis-points rate cut, but the market focus will be on the hint by the meetings due to there is a divided opinion. It should be noted that the European Central Bank’s outgoing President Draghi is scheduled to speak at 15:00 GMT. The central bank head is likely to reiterate the dovish stance.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0992

S2 1.1042

S1 1.1061

Pivot Point 1.1092

R1 1.1111

R2 1.1142

R3 1.1192

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has broken the 1.1100 support point, and presently it’s trading right over the bullish trendline, which is increasing support at 1.1065 regions. At the same time, the 50 periods EMA is also increasing support at 1.1065 zone, which also marks 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The next resistance visits at 1.1092/1.1100. 

All the best!  

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 23 – Major Trade Setups – Stronger Dollar Plays

On Wednesday, the dollar rose versus its peer currencies as a risk spread ahead of the British parliament’s vote on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, which will reflect light on when

On Wednesday, the dollar rose versus its peer currencies as a risk spread ahead of the British parliament’s vote on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, which will reflect light on when

On Wednesday, the dollar rose versus its peer currencies as a risk spread ahead of the British parliament’s vote on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, which will reflect light on when and how Britain will exit the Eurozone.

The British Pound currency was found on the selling track, although Prime Minister Boris Johnsons Brexit bill gained the parliamentary support, the government timeline of just three-days discussion on the bill was rejected.

The European Union Consumer Confidence is scheduled to release at 14:00 GMT. Hence, the European Central Bank, Andrea Enria, is expected to deliver the speech at an event in Madrid at 08:45GMT.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair came under pressure, and the pair is currently trading below the 1.2850. As well as, the pair failed to hit the critical support range on Tuesday, mainly due to Brexit uncertainty and delay. The 50-hour and 100-hour Moving Averages are found at 1.2940 and 1.2905, respectively.

The British Pound currency was found on the selling track, although Prime Minister Boris Johnsons Brexit bill gained the parliamentary support, the government timeline of just three-days discussion on the bill was rejected.

The chances of Britain departing the European Union before the deadline date of October 31 has dropped sharply, mainly due to parliamentary failure.

On the other hand, the headline came from the Prime Minster Boris Johnson office said that if the European Union agree to a delay until January, then the only way to shift from Britain’s Brexit crisis is a new election.

Forecast view, the ongoing uncertainty regarding Brexit could continue to push the GBP lower. Moreover, the pair is trading well below the 100-hour Moving Average for the 1st time since October 11.

It should be noted that the greenback may gain some haven buying due to the risk-off sentiment in the equity markets and trade uncertainty.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.264

S2 1.278

S1 1.2839

Pivot Point 1.292

R1 1.2979

R2 1.306

R3 1.32

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD has violated the bullish channel, which was supporting the pair around 1.2945. The formation fo a bearish engulfing candle is suggesting chances of a bearish reversal in the GBP/USD pair. 

On the lower side, the Sterling may find support at 1.2785 level, which also marks a double bottom on the 4-hour chart. Besides, the resistance stays at 1.2945 level. Consider staying bearish below 1.2920 today. 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

During the early Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair hit the bearish track, having gained acceptance below the 100-day M.A. yesterday. The EUR currency came under selling pressure, mainly due to the decline in the GBP currency as the Brexit obstacle.

If talking about the past movement of EUR, Brexit certainty has sent the shared currency above the 100-day Moving Average on October 18. 

On the technical side, the EUR/USD currency pair found on the inverted hammer on Monday and ended well below the inverted hammers low of 1.1139 on Tuesday.

So, the EUR currency could drop further, notably if the German ten-year bond yields extend Tuesdays 4-basis-points decline to -0.38%. 

Moreover, the greenback may gain some haven buying, adding to the bearish pressures near the EUR/USD currency due to the risk-off sentiment in the equity markets.

On the other hand, the European Union Consumer Confidence is scheduled to release at 14:00 GMT. Hence, the European Central Bank, Andrea Enria, is expected to deliver the speech at an event in Madrid at 08:45GMT.


Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1.1056

S2 1.1096

S1 1.1113

Pivot Point 1.1135

R1 1.1153

R2 1.1175

R3 1.1214

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The EUR/USD currency was trading 1.1116 and 1.1157 yesterday, hit the lowest range. As for today, the EUR will likely to continue consolidating in the narrow range of 1.1110 – 1.1150.

The EUR/USD is also facing double bottom support at 1.1110 area, and above this, we can expect to buy a trend in the EUR/USD until 1.1150 and 1.1180. On the other hand, selling can be expected below 1.1110 until the 1.1065 area. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is flashing red and representing 0.16% declines on the day. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair currently trading at 108.30, as the time of writing, the pair traveled from a high range of 108.51 to a low range of 108.25.

The USD/JPY currency pair may end with a much higher daily loss, as the four-hour chart is showing a head-and-shoulders breakdown. 

Such as Prime Minister Boris Johnsons Brexit bill gained the parliamentary support, but the government timeline of just three-days discussion on the bill was rejected.

Notably, Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a plan to meet with European Union leaders once again to discuss the timeline, and the chances of an early election are increasingly, but Brexit delayed beyond the elections. 

At the data front, the Oct Richmond Fed manufacturing survey rose firmly to +8 (est. -7, prior -9). Increases were comprehensive, with noted raises in employment and new orders with expectations edging higher in addition to stronger current conditions. United Step Sep existing home sales slid -2.2%m/m (est. -0.7%m/m). However, at 5.38mn (est. 5.45mn), the annualized level continues close to post record highs, and NAR’s chief economist continues to cite a shortage of stock and supply.

The United States’ two-year Treasury yields were moving between 1.59% and 1.63, whereas the ten-year yield traveled between 1.76% and 1.80%. Markets are expecting 22-basis points of a rate cut at the October 30 meeting and a terminal rate of 1.24% against % currently.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.09

S2 108.31

S1 108.41

Pivot Point 108.53

R1 108.63

R2 108.75

R3 108.97

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

Recalling our previous update, the USD/JPY was trading in the bullish channel, which was extending support at 108.350. This bullish channel is now violated. As anticipated, the violation of 108.350 is extending bearish rally until the 108 level. 

The MACD and Stochastics are consistently pointing into the selling zone, signaling odds of a bearish bias.

The USD/JPY may attain a critical resistance at 108.57, along with support at 108.300. Today, the violation fo 108.270 can help us capture a quick sell position until 107.950. 

All the best!  

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 21 – Major Trade Setups – Brexit Deal Fails to Pass Parliament Vote! 

The U.S. Dollar Index slid 0.3% on the day to 97.28 on Friday. For the first time since December 2018, the index has been down for a third straight week.

The U.S. Dollar Index slid 0.3% on the day to 97.28 on Friday. For the first time since December 2018, the index has been down for a third straight week.

The U.S. Dollar Index slid 0.3% on the day to 97.28 on Friday. For the first time since December 2018, the index has been down for a third straight week.

The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.2973, posting a four-day rally. On Saturday, the British members of parliament voted to withhold approval of the Brexit deal. It is reported that the U.K. government has asked the European Union for a three-month delay to the Brexit deadline. This morning, the British pound retreated to $1.2919.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

 

  

XAU/USD– Daily Analysis

The safe-haven metal prices consolidating in the narrow range of $1,500 to $1,480 since last Monday, as of now the prices slightly dropped due to traders expected more transparency in the Brexit progress.

At the Brexit front, the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson attempted to have a meaningful vote on his Brexit deal on Saturday. Still, the U.K parliament declared an act withholding support until full legislation is passed. Therefore, Prime Minister Boris Johnson requested the European Union for a 3-months delay.

On the other hand, the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC changed the loan rate from 4.25% to 4.20%. The LPR is set based on the range above the medium-term Loan Facility rate every month. 

Gold may come under pressure if the yield ends consolidation with a bullish breakout above 1.80%. However, the yellow metal is showing resilience by ignoring losses. The gold mostly drops due to the Central Bank hawkish decisions.

The United States’ ten-year Treasury is currently unchanged around 1.75%. Interestingly, the benchmark yield is also lacking a clear directional bias since October 15. 

At the US-China trade war front, China’s Vice Premier Liu He stated that the China and United States are on the development track and that they completed the phase one agreement. 



Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1472.23

S2 1480.87

S1 1485.48

Pivot Point 1489.51

R1 1494.12

R2 1498.15

R3 1506.79

XAU/USD– Trading Tips

The precious metal gold prices remain to trade in the old range of 1,496 – 1,488. On the 4 hour chart, gold has formed an ascending triangle, which is extending substantial resistance at 1,495. Therefore, consider lingering bearish below 1,492 level to target 1,488 and 1,482. 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair hit the longest weekly rally since July 2018; the pair surged 1.22% last week. Having recovered by 0.54% and 0.33% in the previous two weeks. It should be noted that the reason behind last week’s bullish trends could be Brexit optimism headline and the resulting rally in the GBP.

At the Brexit front, the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson attempted to have a meaningful vote on his Brexit deal on Saturday. Still, the U.K parliament declared an act withholding support until full legislation is passed. So, Prime Minister Boris Johnson requested the European Union for a 3-months delay.

It should also be noted that the German Producer Price Index is scheduled to release at 06:00 GMT, and the Bundesbank’s monthly report is scheduled to release at 10:00 GMT. The EUR currency could face bearish pressure if the September PPI figures well below the forecast of -0.1% month-on-month, supporting slowdown fears. 

The shared currency may hit the bearish track if the European Union takes revenge in the return of the United States’ decision to impose tariffs on $7.5 billion worth of European imports.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1.1035

S2 1.1094

S1 1.1133

Pivot Point 1.1153

R1 1.1192

R2 1.1212

R3 1.1271

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The bullish engulfing candle above 1.1100 level leads the EUR/USD pair towards the 1.116 level. The RSI and MACD are still showing a buying trend, but the pair may dispense some retracement until 1.1140 before showing a further bullish trend. 

Consider staying bullish over 1.1153 level today to target 1.1160 on the higher side.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and representing 0.46% losses on the day, by the way, the GBP/USD currency pair currently trading at 1.2914. Additionally, the GBP currency could come under pressure further according to the forecasted by the options markets.

The GBP/USD currency pair options market is down on GBP currency since April. Moreover, the investors are adding bets for a decline in the Pound currency due to fading Brexit optimism.

One-month risk reversal (GBP1MRR), a gauge of calls to puts on the GBP fell by -1.70 on Friday, but it is currently found at -1.65. Friday’s figures were the weakest level in 6-months. On the positive note, the gauge had surged to a 21-month top of 0.125 on October 11.

The decline from October 11 high of 0.125 to October 17 low of -1.70 hints the investors were anticipating the United Kingdom parliament to put obstacles on Prime Minister Boris Johnson Brexit’s agreement.

As we know, the Super Saturday burned all the expectations due to the U.K parliament declared an act withholding support until full legislation is passed. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Boris Johnson requested the European Union for a 3-months delay.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2635

S2 1.2784

S1 1.2876

Pivot Point 1.2932

R1 1.3025

R2 1.3081

R3 1.3229

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is trading sharply bullish above but within a bullish channel. The bullish channel is giving support around 1.2900 level. The GBP/USD has formed a test bar pattern on the 4-hour chart, which is suggesting a bullish trend in the Cable.

The next support stays at 1.2900, and resistance is likely to remain at 1.3050 today. Consider staying bullish above 1.2932 today. 

All the best!  

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 16 – Major Trade Setups – Brace for Price Action CPI & Retail Sales!

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 98.31. Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest economic report, the Beige Book.

The British pound resumed

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 98.31. Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest economic report, the Beige Book.

The British pound resumed

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 98.31. Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest economic report, the Beige Book.

The British pound resumed its rally amid growing Brexit deal optimism, surging 1.2% to $1.2760, the highest level since May 16. It was reported that the U.K. and European Union negotiators would present a draft Brexit deal to national delegations later today. On the other hand, official data showed that U.K.’s jobless rate rose to 3.9% in the three months to August (3.8% expected). September CPI will be reported later today (+1.8% on-year expected).

The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1034. The ZEW German Current Situation Index dropped to -25.3 in October (-23.6 expected, -19.9 in September), the lowest level since April 2010. USD/JPY climbed 0.4% to 108.81.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

XAU/USD– Daily Analysis

The safe-haven metal prices flashing green as traders priced in the latest news regarding Brexit and Sino-US trade worries. The Sino-U.S. trade tensions once again escalated, as China now wants the United States to reduce tariff before singing the purchase of $50 billion of American agriculture products under the round one trade deal touted by the U.S. President Donald Trump.

Brexit negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union are reaching a decisive stage. Reports came that a deal between the two sides may be near, but it was still unclear if London could avoid delaying its departure, which is due on October 31.

The United States will not go ahead with the hike in tariffs on nearly $250 billion of Chinese products from 25% to 30%, which is often indicative. Trump and Xi are due to meet in the interests of the APEC conference next November. The mid-December tariff on approximately $160 billion of Chinese products, is what is presently a crucial decision for both nations. 


Daily Support and Resistance

    S3 1443.07

S2 1464.37

S1 1472.78

Pivot Point 1485.67

R1 1494.08

R2 1506.97

R3 1528.27

XAU/USD– Trading Tips

Gold continues to exhibit choppy trading in a small area of 1,487 – 1,477. A bullish breakout of 1,487 can extend buying until 1,494 level whereas, the bearish breakout of 1,477 level is likely to continue selling until 1,464 level. 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair trading above the 50-day moving average for the 3rd consecutive day and failed to hit the critical level resistance level of 1.1075 despite Brexit optimism.

As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading near 1.1030, found on the bearish track on the day in the wake of U.S. monthly retail sales data. By the way, the 50-day Moving Average is now located at 1.1038.

The shared currency rose from 1.0991 on Tuesday, strengthening the bullish breakout. The bullish bias was hinted by Friday’s bullish breakout, a trendline connecting June 25 and August 13 highs. However, the pair took a buying trend, possibly due to the news of the United Kingdom, and the European Union is closing on a Brexit deal.

At the Brexit front, the Brititan Prime Minister Boris Johnson needs the excellent support of Democratic Unionist Parties to pass the Brexit agreement in Parliament.

However, the Democratic Unionist Party is playing rough. The party’s leader has dismissed the statement that it has agreed to support such agreement wherein Northern Ireland will stay in the United Kingdom customs area but adhere to the Europan Union customs rules on tariffs.

The United States retail sales data is scheduled to release at12:30 GMT, is expected to show the retail sales growth slowed to 0.3% in September from August’s reading of 0.4%. Sluggish data will support the dovish Federal Reserve expectations and probably will start the selling trend in the greenback.



Daily Support and Resistance

    S3 1.091

S2 1.0972

S1 1.1005

Pivot Point 1.1034

R1 1.1067

R2 1.1096

R3 1.1158

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The EUR/USD trade in the restricted range of 1.1020 – 1.1060. The Euro has violated descending trend line resistance, making it weaker against the greenback since late June. That’s suggesting a correction higher is forthcoming.  

On the 4-hour chart above, the EUR/USD is mounting in a bullish channel, which is supporting the pair above 1.1000 level. The daily resistance stays at 1.1050. Consider staying bullish above 1.1030 level to target 1.1050 and 1.1070. On the flip side, the pair can remain bearish below 1.1030 until 1.0976 and 1.0856. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair has crossed the level above its 200-day Moving Average resistance for the first time since May 13. Probably, the pair will further increase if Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson gets the support of the Democratic Unionist Party for the approval of the Brexit agreement in the Parliament.

Whereas the Europan Union (E.U.) and the United Kingdom are closing on Brexit agreement, the Democratic Unionist Party is still aggressive. Nevertheless, the Democratic Unionist Party is playing rough. The party’s leader Arlene Foster has dismissed the statement that it has agreed to support such agreement wherein Northern Ireland will stay in the United Kingdom customs area but adhere to the Europan Union customs rules on tariffs.

We all want to make this deal, but it must be a deal in which you have to consider the economic and legal integrity of the British, and that means the whole United Kingdom, included Northern Ireland.

It should also be noted that the Democratic Unionist Party ten lawmakers will play a key role in deciding that the Prime Minster Boris Johnson can pass any agreement in Parliament or not.

The GBP could come under pressure if Boris Johnson does not succeed in getting support from the Democratic Unionist Party. In consequence, the GBP/USD currency pair may drop to the level below the 200-day Moving Average, presently trading at 1.2710.

On the other hand, the cable pair may also take fresh hints from the United Kingdom Consumer Price Index, which is scheduled to release at 08:30 GMT.


Daily Support and Resistance

   

S3 1.199

S2 1.2289

S1 1.2469

Pivot Point 1.2588

R1 1.2768

R2 1.2887

R3 1.3185

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

Technically, the GBP/USD extends to trade upward on the back of a more solid Sterling. The pair have achieved a 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.2692 and now trading over this level, scanning for a substantial fundamental reason to define the next movement.  

On the upper side, the GBP/USD is expected to meet resistance around 1.2800. Breakout 1.2800 can trigger more buying until 1.12849. Let’s keep an eye on 1.2695 now to take quick trade opportunities.

All the best!  

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 15 – Major Trade Setups – Investors Back from Holiday! 

The U.S. dollar stabilized on Monday, with the ICE Dollar Index edging up 0.1% on the day to 98.46.

The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1027, halting a three-day rally. Official

The U.S. dollar stabilized on Monday, with the ICE Dollar Index edging up 0.1% on the day to 98.46.

The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1027, halting a three-day rally. Official

The U.S. dollar stabilized on Monday, with the ICE Dollar Index edging up 0.1% on the day to 98.46.

The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1027, halting a three-day rally. Official data showed that the eurozone industrial production grew 0.4% on month in August (+0.3% expected). Later today, the ZEW German Current Situation Index for October will be reported (-23.6 expected, -19.9 in September).

The British Pound retreated 0.3% to $1.2609, following a surge of more than 3.0% in the prior two sessions. Finnish Prime Minister Antti Rinne told reporters that he does not think it would be possible for the European Union and the U.K. to agree on the terms of a Brexit deal in time for the summit of leaders starting Thursday. Meanwhile, U.K.’s jobless rate for the three-month to August will be released later today (steady at 3.8% expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

 

XAU/USD– Daily Analysis

The safe-haven metal prices rose but still below the key level of $1500 due to fresh uncertainty between the United States and China trade talks. The U.S. gold futures for December delivery inched up 0.2% to $1,499.02 during the Asian session before taking a bearish turn ahead of the European session.

The gold prices recovered as China now wants to do more trade discussions before signing the critical phase one trade deal. The Chinese attitude appeared to contradict the U.S. President’s contention on Friday that both nations were very close to making a deal.

Besides, China wants Trump to finish the scheduled tariff hike in December. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced CNBC in an interview that he anticipates that both nations couldn’t reach on the deal due to the December hike.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1430.45

S2 1459.63

S1 1474.37

Pivot Point 1488.82

R1 1503.56

R2 1518

R3 1547.19

XAU/USD– Trading Tips

Gold has also exhibited choppy trading in a narrow range of 1,497 – 1,489. A bullish breakout of 1,496 can extend buying until 1,502 level whereas, the bearish breakout of 1,489 level is likely to continue selling until 1,481 level and 1,474. Today 1,494 is a crucial level to focus, as gold can stay bearish below this and bullish above this level.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair found on the Doji candlestick pattern which indicates traders’ indecision. The EUR/USD currency pair hit a high and low of 1.1043 and 1.1013, and the trading area remained the same as it was on Friday. The EUR/USD continues to maintain a sideways range of 1.1063 and 1.1001. 

At the German Zew Survey front, Economic Sentiment (Oct), which is scheduled to release at 09:00 GMT, is anticipated to print at -27.3 against-22.5 in September. Whereas, the current is expected to come in at -26, marking a deterioration from September’s -19.9 reading. 

Upbeat expectations may get a strong buying trend in the shared currency. However, a bullish daily close could remain elusive If the markets turn risk-averse due to the negative China producer price index data, which was released in the Asian trading hours.


Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1.091

S2 1.0972

S1 1.1005

Pivot Point 1.1034

R1 1.1067

R2 1.1096

R3 1.1158

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The EUR/USD currency pair trading sideways in tight trading limits of 1.1043 and 1.1001. A close above 1.1043 would suggest a resumption of the rally from fresh lows around 1.0879. Conversely, a close below Monday’s low of 1.1043 would mean an end of the recovery rally.

An upward channel of the EUR/USD is still intact, and the major currency pair continues to trade within this range of 1.1043 and 1.1001. Consider taking buying positions over 1.100 level to target 1.1050 and 1.1070. On the flip side, bearish bias can be seen under 1.1000 until 1.0976 and 1.0856. 

 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair got to the highest level since January 2018. The investors are expecting Brexit breakthrough and continuing bets to position for a rally in Pound.

As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2618, found on the highest track on the day. 

One-month risk reversals (GBP1MRR), a gauge of calls to puts on the GBP, increased above zero on Friday and currently stands at 0.25, the highest level in 21 months.

The possibilities of Britain securing an orderly departure from the Europan Union have lost during this week due to the comments by the Finlands Prime Minister that time has finished.

However, the GBP currency could continue its bullish momentum as there are some renewed sentiments regarding anther Brexit summit, most probably at the end of this month.

Additionally, the British Pound may get buyings if the United Average Earnings (Aug) releases against past expectations. The data is scheduled to release at 08:30 GMT.

On the negative note, if the data release against the expectation and if any negative news comes concerning Brexit, then the GBP/USD currency pair could hit the bearish track sharply. 


Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1.199

S2 1.2289

S1 1.2469

Pivot Point 1.2588

R1 1.2768

R2 1.2887

R3 1.3185

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

Technically, the GBP/USD continues to trade bullish in the wake of a stronger Sterling. The pair has completed 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.2592 and now holding above this level, looking for a solid fundamental reason to determine the next movement.  

On the upper side, the GBP/USD is likely to face strong double top resistance around 1.2700. Breakout 1.2700 can trigger further buying until 1.12759. Let’s keep an eye on 1.2588 now to take quick trade opportunities.

All the best!  

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 14 – Major Trade Setups – U.S. China Partial Trade Settlement Plays! 

On Monday, the market sentiment remains risk-on as traders weight the U.S. – China partial trade settlement. Traders, the exports of China to the United States declined 10.7% in terms

On Monday, the market sentiment remains risk-on as traders weight the U.S. – China partial trade settlement. Traders, the exports of China to the United States declined 10.7% in terms

On Monday, the market sentiment remains risk-on as traders weight the U.S. – China partial trade settlement. Traders, the exports of China to the United States declined 10.7% in terms of the greenback. While the U.S. imports fell to 26.4% through that era, a Chinese customs spokesperson announced on Monday.

Trade disputes with the United States have begun to influence Chinese trade, although the latest Sino-U.S. trade discussions have produced positive outcomes in some fields. 

The recent development surrounding the trade deal between the United States and China indicate a hard way ahead for the United States and China trade officials as any actual agreement didn’t sign yet that could finish the trade war. However, the market is likely to trade risk-on sentiment to price in positive developments. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair is still trading below the fifty-day moving average and having faced rejection at the critical level of 1.1060, even after the positive news came regarding Sino-US trade truce.

The United States President Donald Trump announced a partial trade deal; due to this, the greenback currency slipped lower, and the risky assets gained bullish momentum.

Meantime, the United States decided to delay taxes increases on $250 billion in Chinese goods. In contrast, the dragon nation is ready to buy $40 to $50 billion in United States agriculture products.

Moreover, Goldman Sachs announced there is a 60% possibility that the 15% tariffs will impose, but not sooner, probably in early 2020.

According to forecast, the EUR/USD currency pair could hit again to 50-day Moving Average if the Eurozone Industrial Production for August, which is scheduled to release at 09:00 GMT, beats estimates figures by a big range. The markets may get hints from the speech by the Europan Central Banks, which is scheduled to deliver at 07:15 GMT.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.091

S2 1.0972

S1 1.1005

Pivot Point 1.1034

R1 1.1067

R2 1.1096

R3 1.1158

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The EUR/USD currency pair consolidating in the narrow range of 1.1030 and below the 50-day Moving Average at 1.1044, because prominent investment banks reported concerns regarding the reliability of the new trade deal.

The EUR/USD is trading in a bullish channel, which can be seen on the 4-hour chart above. The bullish channel is keeping the EUR/USD supported above 1.1000 level with resistance at 1.1050. Consider staying bullish above 1.100 level to target 1.1050 and 1.1070. Selling can be seen below 1.1000 until 1.0976 and 1.0856. 

 

AUD/USD– Daily Analysis

AUD/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range around 0.6780, mainly due to China’s mixed trade data. China’s trade figures in the Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms represented that Trade Surplus expanded to CNY 280 billion during September from 239.6 billion flashed in August. Additional details on the same format mention Exports declining -0.7% against +2.6% previous, whereas Imports are falling -6.2% against -2.6% earlier.

On the U.S. Dollar (USD) front, the headline Trade Balance figures increased by $39.65 billion against $33.30 billion estimates whereas Imports and Exports follow the suit of CNY figures. Imports plummet 8.5% YoY against -5.2% expected while Exports lag behind -3.0% market consensus to -3.2% on the year-on-year basis.

Therefore, the Australian dollar traders didn’t get a clear picture of the Chinese trade situation, whereas the overall sentiment remains bullish due to the United States and China trade truce.

The recent development surrounding the trade deal between the United States and China indicate a hard way ahead for the United States and China trade officials as any actual agreement didn’t sign yet that could finish the trade war. However, the market is likely to trade risk-on sentiment to price in positive developments. 

China recently rejected the U.S. ambassador visa, which could hyper the Trump administration toward China during the 2nd phase of talks. Eventually, all investors will keep their eyes on the fresh clue from the trade deal between the United States and China as the first phase is cleared.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 0.6712

S2 0.6752

S1 0.6773

Pivot Point 0.6792

R1 0.6812

R2 0.6831

R3 0.6871

AUD/USD– Trading Tips

The AUDUSD is trading bearish after testing the double top level of 06800. Below this level, the AUDUSD has formed a tweezers top pattern, which suggests bearish bias among traders. This could trigger a bearish trend in the AUD/USD below 0.6800 level. 

On the lower side, the AUD/USD may gain support at 0.6700, the 38.2% Fibo level, and 50% retracement at 0.6750. Let’s look for selling traders until these levels are met today. 

 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

GBP/USD currency pair hit the bearish track and representing 0.37% losses on the day, mainly due to declining certainty for the Brexit deal. By the way, the pair is presently trading around 1.26, having hit a high of 1.2645 in Asian trading hours.

The GBP currency still on the selling track, due to the comment by Britain and the European Union on Sunday that much work will be required to secure a deal on Britain’s departure from the bloc.

Therefore, the risks of the GBP selling sentiment in the Europan session is high. However, if the news flow will turn positive, then the contrary view in the Sterling could be reversed. Kathy Lien from B.K. Asset Management observes that the Pound is rising to levels above 1.28 ahead of the Brexit deadline of October 31.

On the other hand, the eyes remain on the trade talks between the U.S. and China. Such as both sides completed the one stage of the bigger trade deal on Friday. However, Chinese media told that China would not be more confident about future negotiations.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.199

S2 1.2289

S1 1.2469

Pivot Point 1.2588

R1 1.2768

R2 1.2887

R3 1.3185

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

Technically, the GBP/USD has disrupted the double top resistance mark of 1.2536, and this point can keep the Cable bullish over this point until 1.2760. 

At the moment, the GBP/USD is trading above 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.2592. Breakout of this market can trigger further retracement until 1.2525. Let’s keep an eye on 1.2585 today to capture quick trader opportunities.

All the best! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 11 – Major Trade Setups – Canadian Job Report On Radar!

The Dollar Index dropped 0.4% on the day to 98.68 on Thursday, as Brexit deal hopes boosted the Euro and the British pound. Meantime, U.S. President Donald Trump said journalists

The Dollar Index dropped 0.4% on the day to 98.68 on Thursday, as Brexit deal hopes boosted the Euro and the British pound. Meantime, U.S. President Donald Trump said journalists

The Dollar Index dropped 0.4% on the day to 98.68 on Thursday, as Brexit deal hopes boosted the Euro and the British pound. Meantime, U.S. President Donald Trump said journalists on Thursday: “We just completed an agreement with China, we are doing very fine, we are having another one tomorrow. I am reaching with the vice-premier over at the White House, and I think it is going well.”

Official data revealed that U.S. consumer prices were even on month in September (+0.1% anticipated and in August). The U.S. Labor Department announced that initial jobless claims amounted to 210K. Following today, U.S. import is predicted to be stable for September versus -0.5% in August. The University of Michigan Sentiment is supposed to get in at 92 for the October preliminary reading versus 93.2 in September.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair hit the bullish track and struggling to catch break above the crucial level of around 1.1000 due to trade optimism. Moreover, the EUR/USD currency pair could extend its gains if the European Central Bank meeting declares the statement unexpectedly less dovish. 

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair took 0.16% gains in the Asian hours as traders sold greenback on trade optimism and announce that the United States is planning to start the currency deal with China. On the other hand, the report came that President Donald Trump may issue a license that will permit a few companies of the United States to supply products to Chinas Huawei.

At the ECB front, the European Central Bank meeting regarding monetary policy is scheduled to happen at 11:30 GMT.

The Central Bank reduced its deposit rate by the 10-basis-points to -0.50% during September and also announced a new bond-buying plan that is scheduled to start from November.

Distinctly, the EUR currency may take a buying trend if the ECB meeting underscores the growing dissent within the Governing Council. Moreover, the EUR may come under pressure and hit the bearish bias if the meeting reports increased odds for more rate cut.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0904

S2 1.0938

S1 1.0956

Pivot Point 1.0973

R1 1.099

R2 1.1008

R3 1.1042

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The pair is currently trading at 1.0987, 21-day moving average. The technical line has been closing bullish move since October 3, and this level is considered as a support for the buyers. 

A close above the key Moving Average would open the doors for a stronger corrective bullish move, possibly to 1.1110 (September 13 high).

Today consider staying bullish 1.1025 as the EUR/USD may stay bearish below and bullish above this level. 

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the session high of 108.13 and increased more than 20 pips and presently trading at 108.04, due to President Donald Trump’s positive comments related to trade talks.

President Donald Trump’s comment that the trade talks with China are going well and that a deal could be reached on a positive outcome.

On the other hand, the demand or the anti-risk Japanese Yen declined due to the United States President Donald Trump’s positive comment related to trade talks.

The futures on the S&P 500 are presently showing 0.15% increases. The index increased by 0.64% on Thursday, due to trade talks continued, denying reports released in the Asian trading hours, which said Chinese officials could cut short their visit. 

Asian equities are flashing green at press time. Japan’s Nikkei is currently risen by 0.87%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is increased by 1.26%. 

We should also take note that the USD/JPY currency pair could continue its bullish trend if the trade talks finish on the positive outcome. President Trump will meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu later today. 

    



Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 105.83

S2 106.47

S1 106.77

Pivot Point 107.11

R1 107.41

R2 107.75

R3 108.39

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY may mark a critical resistance at 108, which is extended by the 78.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. On the lower side, the USD/JPY may get supported at 107.720. The bullish violation of 108 can drive USD/JPY towards 108.54. Consider taking sell positions below 108 and buying positions on the breach of 108 to target 108.450. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair now found on the bullish track and was seen while consolidating in the narrow range, just below mid-1.2400s in the Asian session. Moreover, the eyes will keep on the resumption of the European Union and the United Kingdom Brexit talks.

The GBP/USD currency pair took some aggressive buyings and printed its highest % gains since March amid repeated Brexit certainty. Moreover, the GBP is considered as the best performing major currency after the Irish PRimme Minister Leo Varadkar said that a Brexit agreement possibly would be closed by the end of October.

After a 3-hour meeting with United Kingdom Prime Minster Boris Johnson Regarding Brexit, Varadkar said that they have identified a possible way forward on the Irish border issue and how to avoid a hard border. 

Despite the positive trade headlines and an aggressive uptick in the United States Treasury bond yields, the U.S. Dollar failed to gain any rest. The currency is still depressed due to increasing chances of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its coming meeting, which is scheduled for 29-30 October.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2025

S2 1.2133

S1 1.2177

Pivot Point 1.224

R1 1.2285

R2 1.2348

R3 1.2455

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

The GBP/USD pair recovered almost 250 pips, taking along with some trading stops being located near the 1.2300 levels and the 1.2345 and 1.2350 supply zone, and got further support from the prevalent greenback selling bias. The GBP/USD trade at 1.2480 right below the strong double top resistance. The overall trend appears bullish as the GBP/USD can proceed to trade higher. 

Consider keeping an eye on 1.2490 level to take a sell position below this and buy position above the same standard to capturing 30/40 pips. 

All the best! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 10 – Major Trade Setups – Turkey Triggers Safe Haven Demand!

Earlier today, the financial markets experience extreme volatility after Turkey attacked Syrian rebels. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is lead by Kurds, said that civilian areas were targeted by

Earlier today, the financial markets experience extreme volatility after Turkey attacked Syrian rebels. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is lead by Kurds, said that civilian areas were targeted by

Earlier today, the financial markets experience extreme volatility after Turkey attacked Syrian rebels. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is lead by Kurds, said that civilian areas were targeted by Turkish warplanes and caused a massive panic in the region.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the operation named “Peace Spring” has launched with the collaboration of the Syrian National Army against the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) & Daesh Terrorists. He added that the operation was launched to create a “safe zone” to house Syrian refugees after clearing the area from Kurdish militias.

 

Overall, the focus stays on the GDP and CPI figures from the United Kingdom and the United States.  

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair hit the bullish track and struggling to catch break above the crucial level of around 1.1000 due to trade optimism. Moreover, the EUR/USD currency pair could extend its gains if the European Central Bank meeting declares the statement unexpectedly less dovish. 

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair took 0.16% gains in the Asian hours as traders sold greenback on trade optimism and announce that the United States is planning to start the currency deal with China. On the other hand, the report came that President Donald Trump may issue a license that will permit a few companies of the United States to supply products to Chinas Huawei.

The pair is currently trading at 1.0987, 21-day moving average. The technical line has been closing bullish move since October 3, and this level is considered as a support for the buyers. A close above the key Moving Average would open the doors for a stronger corrective bullish move, possibly to 1.1110 (September 13 high).

At the ECB front, as we know, the European Central Bank meeting regarding monetary policy is scheduled to happen at 11:30 GMT.

The Central Bank reduced its deposit rate by the 10-basis-points to -0.50% during September and also announced a fresh bond-buying plan that is scheduled to start from November.

Distinctly, the EUR currency may take a buying trend if the ECB meeting underscores the growing dissent within the Governing Council. Moreover, the EUR may come under pressure and hit the bearish bias if the meeting reports increased odds for more rate cut.

The Federal Reserve September meeting released on Wednesday and showed the rising attention between policymakers that markets continue to expecting more rate cuts than the U.S. Central Bank will deliver this year.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0904

S2 1.0938

S1 1.0956

Pivot Point 1.0973

R1 1.099

R2 1.1008

R3 1.1042

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The single currency Euro is taking a sharp bullish turn in the wake of a weaker dollar. The pair is facing support at 1.0975, along with resistance at 1.1025. The MACD and Stochastics are also supporting the bullish bias, especially after the EUR/USD has a bullish crossover of the 50-period EMA today. The bullish breakout of 1.1025 can extend buying until 1.1075 today.

 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

During the early Asian session, the USD/JPY currency pair hit the high level following a drop to the 107.00 level. Later, the USD/JPY prices recovered to the 1-weeks high in the last hour.

The USD/JPY currency pair is found on a weekly bullish track after placing a low of 106.560 during the last week. Most of the buying came on sentiments that China is still ready to make a deal with the United States despite the recent development.

The USD/JPY currency pair was marked on the bearish level earlier this Thursday in the nervousness due to the high-level United States and China trade negotiations. The sharp uptick in the pair came as the United States is planning to enter into a currency deal with China as a part of the partial trade deal, although the depressed greenback prices action kept a lid on any strong follow-through.

Despite the positive trade news and the less dovish Federal Reserve meeting minutes, the U.S. Dollar struggled to increase any traction and still on the sideways due to the weaker tone surrounding the United States Treasury bond yields.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 106.36

S2 106.88

S1 107.17

Pivot Point 107.4

R1 107.69

R2 107.92

R3 108.44

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

Consider the safe-haven appeal triggered by Turkish news, the USD/JPY is holding below the healthy resistance level of 107.700. There has been a sideways movement in the market, as traders are confused about whether to buy JPY on safe-haven or to sell it on U.S. – China trade deal sentiments. 

The USD/JPY may notice a critical resistance at 107.7500, which is extended by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. On the lower side, the USD/JPY may find support at 106.920. The bullish violation of 107.750 can drive USD/JPY towards 108.04 and 108.50. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair found on the recovery track after the bearish session, the pair currently fluctuating between the 1.2225 and 1.2230 area. Cable recovered to the 1.2300 in the wake of a report that the Europan Union is ready to allow a time-limit on the Irish backstop. 

Moreover, the Northen Irish Democratic Unionist party refused the European Union concession on Brexit, and the Europan Union official denied the report and in the consequences, sent the cable pair into the negative area.

On the other hand, the buyers still showing some resilience below the 1.2200 round-figure marks, and some repeated greenback weakness supported limit any further declines. Besides this, the Wednesday FOMC meeting doing little to depress the hopes for yet additional interest rate cut during October. The continued decline in the U.S. Treasury bond yields weakened demand for the U.S. Dollar and turned out to be one of the key factors giving insignificant support to the major.

Moreover, the United Kingdom economic docket could further influence the more extensive market sentiment surrounding the GBP and give some brief trading impetus

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2046

S2 1.2139

S1 1.2175

Pivot Point 1.2233

R1 1.2269

R2 1.2327

R3 1.2421

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

On Thursday, the GBP/USD trade at 1.2233 right above the strong double bottom support level of 1.2220. The overall trend appears sideways as the GBP/USD can proceed to trade within 1.2280 – 1.2108 area. Nevertheless, the bearish breach may prolong the GBP/USD selling until 1.2170 following slight retracements.

All the best! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 09 – Major Trade Setups – Fed Meeting Minutes on the Radar

The U.S. dollar traded slightly bearish ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes report today. The downward trend was escalated when Inflation data from American session came on board. 

The U.S.

The U.S. dollar traded slightly bearish ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes report today. The downward trend was escalated when Inflation data from American session came on board. 

The U.S.

The U.S. dollar traded slightly bearish ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes report today. The downward trend was escalated when Inflation data from American session came on board. 

The U.S. inflation data showed a drop in September to -0.3% at 17:30 GMT. This release made the fears of the U.S. recession to re-emerge in the market along with increased chances of further rate cuts by Federal Reserve in the next meeting. 

On Tuesday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, Geng Shuang, denied that the government abused human rights in that region and said that the United States should withdraw the relevant decision and stop interference in ‘sChina’s internal affairs. He also stressed that China would take forceful measures against actions that affect the security, national sovereignty, and development interests of the country.

The report about a possible ban on Visa of Chinese ‘communists’ officials linked to the abuses in Xinjiang from the United States gave a boost to the tensions caused by the blacklist report.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’sLet’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

EUR/USD currency pair hit the bullish level on the day and ahead of Federal Reserve minutes. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is presently trading at 1.0963.

Moreover, the buying tone around the Greenback declined, sent the EUR/USD pair from the 200-hour M.A. support at 1.00947, mainly due to comments by the Federal Reserves Chairman Powell that central Bank balance sheet, which was shrinking until August, but soon will grow again. The Federal Reserve chairman Powell also gave the surety for another rate cut during this month.

Today, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes from its September rate decision is scheduled to happen at 18:00 GMT. Recalling, the U.S. Central Bank cut the rate by 25-basis-points in September. Markets considered this rate cut as a hawkish policy because policymakers were expecting a further rate cut from the FED, and having just 0.25% rate cut was a bit disappointing. 

The Greenback may find a buying track due to a recent drop in the EUR/USD pair, which pushed the pair below recent lows near 1.0879. On the forecast side, the possibility of a rate cut by 25 basis points on October 30 marks above 80%. Moreover, nearly 87 basis points of rate cuts are expected by January 2021 according to forecast.

Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1.0854

S2 1.0909

S1 1.0932

Pivot Point 1.0964

R1 1.0988

R2 1.102

R3 1.1075

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

The EUR/USD currency pair may hit the resistance of the 21-day moving average at 1.0988 if the Federal Reserve meeting shows the consensus between the policymakers in the wake of the further rate cut. The EUR/USD has violated 1.0970 support, and the pair may head further lower towards 1.09200 and 1.0882 later today. Consider staying bearish below 1.0964 area today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is presently trading around 107.00, hit the bearish track, and faced rejection at 107.30 in overnight trading. By the way, the USD/JPY currency pair consolidate in the narrow range due to intensifying trade tension and risk aversion in the equity markets.

The U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday as tensions between the U.S. and China escalated ahead of the critical trade talk scheduled to happen at the end of the week. The U.S. threatened to blacklist the Chinese companies over human rights violations in Uighur province.

The United States stocks dropped on Tuesday due to tension between the United States, and China intensified in the wake of high-level trade talk scheduled to happen later this week. President Donald Trump’s decision to levy a visa restriction on Chinese officials, including the blacklisting of Chinese firms in the wake of china’s treatment with Muslim minorities. With this, the threats increased into coming talks between the United States and China.

China asked Washington to withdraw its decision and gave warning to retaliation. The United States said that the plan to blacklist the Chinese companies were unrelated to trade talks. As a consequence, the S&P 500 index dropped by 1.56%, pushing the traditional safe-haven assets higher.

At this moment, the futures on the S&P 500 are showing 0.21% gains, which could reduce some bullish pressures around the Japanese Yen and may push the USD/JPY pair higher.

Moreover, the yield on the United States ten-year treasury note is showing signs of life. At press time, the return is trading at 1.54%, indicating a 4-basis point increase on the low of 1.50%. Hence, the Greenback may find some support.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 105.83

S2 106.47

S1 106.77

Pivot Point 107.11

R1 107.41

R2 107.75

R3 108.39

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading slightly bullish ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes. The USD/JPY may find an immediate resistance at 107.500, along with support around 106.920. The bullish breakout of 107.450 can lead the USD/JPY prices towards 107.800. On the lower side, the support stays around 106.90. The MACD is hovering in the buying territory. Considering this, we should look for buying trades over 107.11. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD hit the bearish track, and the pair is found trading in the tight range just above 1-month lows of 1.2203 set in the previous session.

The recent downside pressure surrounding the GBP raised the activity on Tuesday. Most of the trading activity and sharp slum in GBP came after the report that Brexit talks between the UK and the E U were very close to separation.

While the German Chancellor Angela Merker told the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson through the phone call that the U.K. should keep the Northen Ireland in the Europan Union customs union. With this, the odds of the no-Brexit deal raises. 

The cable pair declined to 1.2200 levels; this is the lowest level since September 04. President Donald Trump’s decision to levy a visa restriction on Chinese officials, including blacklisting of Chinese firms in the wake of china treatment with Muslim minorities, threats increased incoming talks between the United States and China.

Eventually, the progress sparked a fresh flow of global risk-aversion trade, which supported the Greenback’s relative safe-haven status against its British counterpart.

Meanwhile, the greenback buyers were not successful in gaining on the positive move overnight amid moderately weaker tone around the United States Treasury bond yields.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2025

S2 1.2133

S1 1.2177

Pivot Point 1.224

R1 1.2285

R2 1.2348

R3 1.2455

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

The GBP/USD traded sharply bearish, falling from1.2281 to 1,2200 area amid odds of hard Brexit. The GBP/USD has broken the double bottom level at 1.2225 and has settled a range of candles beneath this level, which is validating the bearish breakout.

Today, traders should consider opening a sell position only below 1.224 and bullish positions above the same level to target 1.2276 on the upper side while bearish target stays at 1.2140. 

All the best! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 08 – Major Trade Setups – U.S. China Trade Talks In Focus! 

On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar trades to trade choppy to slightly bullish on the back of no significant economic figures. The range of light United States numbers during the past

On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar trades to trade choppy to slightly bullish on the back of no significant economic figures. The range of light United States numbers during the past

On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar trades to trade choppy to slightly bullish on the back of no significant economic figures. The range of light United States numbers during the past week increased uncertainties on the assumption that the United States economy will be further elastic as compared to the other economies and pushed investors to start pricing in another rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Powell Stressed that an Independent Central Bank could make decisions in the long-term best interests of the economy without regard to the political pressure. He also quoted that “the management of Central Bank must be free from the dangers of control by politics and by private interests, singly or combined.”

In previous days, President Trump has criticized the Federal Reserve for not Lowering its Interest Rates enough. In reply to that criticism, Jerome Powell’s statement about central bank independency has raised the possibility that the Fed might not cut its rate further in the next policy meeting.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair consolidating in a narrow range near 1.0975, as we know, the pair were representing 0.06% losses on Monday. It should be noted that the EUR/USD currency pair hit the rejection at the 21-day moving average for the 3rd straight day yesterday. Therefore the figures are presently found at 1.0992. 

On the economic data front, all eyes stay on the German industrial production data, which is scheduled to release at 06:00 GMT, and expectations are high that the German Industrial Production data dropped 0.3% month on month during August, having fallen 0.6% in the previous month. The final number is anticipated to release at -2.7% versus -4.2% in July.

German Factory Orders declined by 0.6% month-on-month in August – the 2nd-straight monthly decline, due to weaker demand from domestic consumers, the official data showed on Monday. 

Additionally, the headline IHS Markit and BME Germany Manufacturing PMI for February, a single-figure picture of the performance of the manufacturing economy, had marked well below 50, indicating contraction.

The statement came that the German recession is generally accepted at this time and price. Therefore, the EUR/USD currency pair will likely remain resilient if the Geman Industrial Production fell according to expectations. The pair may take hints from the United States Producer Price index and comments by the Feral Reserves President Powell.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0901

S2 1.0939

S1 1.0956

Pivot Point 1.0978

R1 1.0994

R2 1.1017

R3 1.1056

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

On the technical aspect, the EUR/USD may gain support at the critical trading point of 1.0960 level. The MACD and RSI are staying in the bullish territory, implying probabilities of a bullish reversal. 

A bearish breach of the 1.0967 level can spread selling until 1.0885. While buying can be seen above 1.0960 till 1.1035 levels. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair found on the recovery track and traded well in the striking distance of the overnight swing high.

After a bearish break opening at the begin of a new trading week, the USD/JPY currency pair has managed to recover positive traction and returned near 80-pips from an intraday low level of 106.65. Positive figures in the United States treasury bond yields propped the greenback demand and turned out to be one of the critical factors that started the initial support of the uptick.

The momentum gained another boost from some positive comments by the White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow, who said that the U.S. was available for China plans and proposals, but the Chinese companies were not there. Meanwhile, Kudlow noted further that the United States trade officials could make progress between the Sino-US trade war.

The USD/JPY currency pair is trading steady ahead of Fed Chair Speech and PPI figures today as investors seem hesitant to enter the market ahead of the news release. Besides, the highly-expected United States and China trade negotiations in Washington are also keeping the USD/JPY in check ahead of Top-level negotiations scheduled on Thursday.

Meanwhile, Tuesday’s U.S. economic docket, highlighting the release of Producer Price Index (PPI), is under focus, and all eyes will keep on it for fresh impetus. Moreover, the market risk-sentiment and the greenback prices progress could further produce some meaningful trading opportunities together.

Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 105.78

S2 106.47

S1 106.85

Pivot Point 107.16

R1 107.54

R2 107.85

R3 108.54

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Monday, the USD/JPY opened with a bearish gap, which is already covered by the end of the day. The USD/JPY pair soared to complete a 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 107.450.  

The USD/JPY is now trading above 50 periods EMA, which is placing a bullish pressure on the USD/JPY at 106.900. The MACD is looming in the buying zone. However, the live histogram is smaller than the previous one, which shows the odds of a bearish reversal. Consider trading bearish below 107.450 to target 106.900. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and still consolidating in the narrow range just below the 1,2300 handles due to renewed Brexit pessimism. 

The cable found exhibited some intraday bounce during the start of a week. In contrast, a shortage of any substantial progress leads the pair to quickly hit the fresh low level near the 1.2335 level, which is also marked as an important level by 200-period EMA on the 4-hourly chart. 

Considering that the bloc’s leaders observe the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johosn’s new Brexit plan is not enough, uncertainties related to Briaitan exits from the Europan Union, leaving some pressure on the GBP.

The modest pickup in the greenback demand, benefited by the positive rebound in the United States Treasury bond yields and positive trade-related headlines, further helped to the pairs downtick. While, the White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow, who said that the U.S. was available for China plans and proposals, but the Chinese companies were not there, drove some haven appeal in the market.


Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1.2205

S2 1.2253

S1 1.2271

Pivot Point 1.2302

R1 1.2319

R2 1.2351

R3 1.24

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the trading in GBP/USD has changed much as the cable continues to trade bearish. On the upper side, 1.2340 level is extending it a substantial resistance now. The 50 EMA is expected to maintain support at 1.2275, but the new bearish movement in the GBP/USD is likely to challenge the support zone. Consider opening a sell position only below 1.2275 level today. 

All the best! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 07 – Major Trade Setups – Fed Chair Powell Speak! 

On Monday, the U.S. dollar continues to trade sideways in the wake of mixed economic figures. The series of soft United States data last week increased uncertainties on the assumption

On Monday, the U.S. dollar continues to trade sideways in the wake of mixed economic figures. The series of soft United States data last week increased uncertainties on the assumption

On Monday, the U.S. dollar continues to trade sideways in the wake of mixed economic figures. The series of soft United States data last week increased uncertainties on the assumption that the United States economy will be more flexible as compared to the other economies and pushed investors to start pricing in another rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

At the Fed front, the dollar may trade slightly bearish over the strong market expectation that the Federal Reserve will deliver the rate cut again at its upcoming policy meeting on 29-30 October to support the economy.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair is flashing green and representing 10% gains on the day while the currency pair is currently trading around 1.0980, and the twenty-one-day moving average is found at 1.0996. The EUR/USD currency pair can hit the bullish level above the critical M.A. hurdle. Hence, there are some chances that the pair will continue its recovery trend if the German Factory Orders blow past expectations.

On the other hand, if the German Factory Orders decline more than expected, the EUR/USD currency pair could hit the bearish level and will come under the selling pressure below 1.0950.

The German factory orders data is scheduled to release at 06:00 GMT, and expectations are high that the German factory data will show the pace of decline in August.

Factory Orders are anticipated to decline by 1.5% month-on-month in August, after July’s 2.7% decline. The annualized number is expected to print at -4.6%.

The headline IHS Markit and BME Germany Manufacturing PMI, a single-figure snapshot of the performance of the manufacturing economy, increased slightly to 43.5 during August, but remains well below 50, indicating contraction for an 8-month in a row.

It should also be noted that the possibilities of a twenty-basis-points rate cut by the Federal Reserve during October 30 have turned back higher to 83%. Therefore, the EUR/USD bearish trend could be limited.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0895

S2 1.0937

S1 1.0958

Pivot Point 1.0978

R1 1.1

R2 1.102

R3 1.1062

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

On the technical front, the EUR/USD may find support at the crucial trading level of 1.0960 level. The MACD and RSI are holding in the bullish zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal. 

A bearish breakout of the 1.0967 level can extend selling until 1.0885. While buying can be seen over 1.0960 until 1.1035 levels. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

USD/JPY currency pair still consolidating in the narrow range, although the pair has managed to hold its neck comfortably above around1-month lows.

After Friday’s price fluctuations, the USD/JPY currency pair started with a bearish break on Monday as the Chinese officials are hesitant to agree to a comprehensive trade deal extended by the United States President Donald Trump. The Japanese Yen’s relative safe-haven status is applying some bearish pressure on the major.

At the Fed front, the strong market expectation that the Federal Reserve will deliver the rate cut again at its upcoming policy meeting on 29-30 October in the wake to support the economy.

The series of soft United States data last week increased uncertainties on the assumption that the United States economy will be more flexible as compared to the other economies and pushed investors to start pricing in another rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

The weaker trend in the United States treasury bond yields was found pushing greenback lower, and at the same time, helped driving a slight bearish movement in the USD/JPY pair today. 


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 105.78

S2 106.33

S1 106.62

Pivot Point 106.88

R1 107.17

R2 107.43

R3 107.98

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair covered the bearish gap that we can see on the 4-hour timeframe. The USD/JPY pair is trading below 50 periods EMA, which is placing a bearish pressure on the EUR/USD at 106.850. 

The MACD was massively bearish, but know it’s trying to exhibit a bullish crossover. Histograms above 0 are signalings chances of a bullish reversal in the USD/JPY. The pair has immediate support at 106.400, along with resistance at 107.450. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

GBP/USD currency pair still consolidating in the narrow range and traded well on the bullish track held over the previous 1-week or so.

All factors failed to give any significant reason for the significant and led trading at the beginning of the recent week. The GBP currency is still flat due to Friday’s report that the European parliament president has denied the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s new Brexit proposal.

However, the bearish range remained warm so far, due to slightly weaker trend surrounding the greenback, pressurized by the strong market expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver the rate cut again at its upcoming meeting regarding monetary policy, the conference is scheduled to happen on 29-30 October.

On the flip side, the U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson still stands to take Britain out of the European Union on October 31, with deal or without, and caught investors from placing any aggressive bullish risk.

Due to serious of soft United States data, last week increased uncertainties on the assumption that the United States economy will be more flexible as compared to the other economies and pushed investors to start pricing in another rate cut by the Federal Reserve.



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2169

S2 1.2245

S1 1.2291

Pivot Point 1.2322

R1 1.2367

R2 1.2398

R3 1.2474

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is trading with a bearish bias, as the 1.2340 level is extending it a substantial resistance today. The 50 EMA is likely to continue support at 1.2275, but the recent bearish engulfing candle may keep the GBP/USD under heavy selling pressure. 

The trading bias remains mostly bearish, and you should consider staying bearish below 1.2275 level today. 

All the best! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 02 – Major Trade Setups – Weaker Dollar Sentiment Prevails!

The Greenback retreated 0.2% from a two-year high to 99.15 on Tuesday, as data suggested that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at the quickest pace in a decade. The euro gained

The Greenback retreated 0.2% from a two-year high to 99.15 on Tuesday, as data suggested that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at the quickest pace in a decade. The euro gained

The Greenback retreated 0.2% from a two-year high to 99.15 on Tuesday, as data suggested that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at the quickest pace in a decade. The euro gained 0.3% to $1.0934, while USD/JPY slid 0.3% to 107.75.

The British pound tested a day-low of $1.2207 before bouncing back to close flat on the day at $1.2292. Media reported that European Union leaders have considered offering the U.K. a concession on Brexit that could set an expiration date on the contentious Irish backstop. The Markit U.K. Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.3 in September (vs. 47.0 expected) from 47.4 in August. Whereas, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI figures fell dramatically, triggering a sharp sell-off in the U.S. dollar.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range and maintains 0.32% increases. Prominently, the pair may take bids on them today due to the increasing possibilities of the rate cut by the Feral Reserve and the intensified United States slowdown fears.

The United States Insitute of Supply Managements was closely-observed yesterday. The manufacturing index dropped to 47.8 during the month of September. Its the weakest range since the month of June 2009. Besides this, the gauge contracted for the 2nd-consecutive month, confirming the fact that the continuing trade war with the dragon nation is damaging the United States economy lower.

Yesterday’s economic data has propped the U.S. economic slowdown fears, forcing markets to price in the possibility of further rate cuts by Federal Reserve in October. 

Today, the Greenback may trade further lower if the United States ADP employment change which is due to release at 12:15 GMT, release against the estimated number. Consequently, the EUR/USD may hit a high level of 1.10, as suggested by the flag breakout on technical charts. 



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.079

S2 1.0854

S1 1.0893

Pivot Point 1.0918

R1 1.0957

R2 1.0982

R3 1.1046

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

On Wednesday, consider staying bearish below 1.0918 level as the EUR/USD has formed a tweezers top pattern on the 4-hour timeframe. 

On the lower side, one should look for a target of 1.0880 and 1.0820. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

USD/JPY was opened on Tuesday at 108.070 and had shown a bearish trend. The U.S. Dollar on Tuesday fell because of drop-in ISM Manufacturing PMI to a 10-year low point.

The highlight release on Tuesday, ISM Manufacturing PMI came in lower than expected increased the fear of the U.S. falling into recession because of Prevailing US-China Trade war’s impact on the domestic economy.

After the weak economic results from the United States on Tuesday, Donald Trump blamed the Federal Reserve for a strong Dollar in his tweet that the Fed has no clue that they are their enemy.

The weak PMI indicated that economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector was reserved in September. The data showed that PMI dropped to a 10-Year low of 47.8 from the previous month’s 49.1.

From Japan Side, at 4:30 GMT, the Unemployment Rate came as 2.2% against 2.3% in favor of Japanese Yen. At 4:50 GMT, Tankan 

Manufacturing Index and Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index came as 5 and 21 against expected 1 and 20 respectively. They were also in favor of the Japanese Yen.

However, the Final Manufacturing PMI from Japan at 5:30 GMT came as 48.9 against 49.3 expectations. Like the U.S. and other countries, Japanese PMI also showed a drop in economic activities in September.

The USD/JPY showed a downward movement of 0.2% on Tuesday and placed a low of 107.625; it is currently moving at 107.761.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.13

S2 107.56

S1 107.82

Pivot Point 108

R1 108.26

R2 108.44

R3 108.87

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is likely to trade mostly lower as the pair has violated the bullish channel at 108.200. On the lower side, the support stays at 107.300, which is why I will be looking to take sell positions below 108 level to target 107.400.  

 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

 The GBP/USD currency pair hit the bearish track and dropped by 0.2% to 1.2280, ahead of U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson who is ready to announce his last and final Brexit deal/offer to the European Union during this day. Meanwhile, he clearly said that Britain would not talk anymore if the agreement is not engaged and will leave on October 31.

It should be noted that the greenback overall weakness couldn’t send the GBP/USD sellers far away due to new headlines from the U.K. left bearish pressure on the cable pair. By the way, the currency pair is presently trading around 1.2290.

The United Kingdom PM Boris Johnson has a strong attitude about the Brexit final date October 31. Still, at the same time, the PM is hoping for additional effort to extend the British Parliament. 

Apart from this, the intensified fears and anxiety of the economic recession are likely to keep investor’s focus on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams’ speech for further clues about the Fed policy ahead. Whereas the September’s ADP Employment Change is expected 140,000 against 195,000 prior and it’s also one of the highlights today.



Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1.2008

S2 1.2143

S1 1.2217

Pivot Point 1.2279

R1 1.2352

R2 1.2414

R3 1.2549

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

The GBP/USD pair is finishing the Asian session in a bearish mode, falling over from 1.2330 to 1.2250. The sideways trading range market is keeping the cable in between 1.2335 to 1.2235 zone. 

The MACD and RSI are mixed due to a series of mixed fundamentals. On one side, the GBP/USD is turning bullish over a weaker dollar, and on the other hand, bears are shorting GBP to avoid uncertainties coming from Brexit. 

Consider staying bearish below 1.2330 to target 1.2250. In the case of a bearish breakout, the GBP/USD pair can drop further towards 1.2185.

All the best! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 01 – Major Trade Setups – Canadian GDP In Play! 

On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar surged to trade near its highest in around two weeks against the Japanese yen. The release of economic event that is forecast to dispense the

On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar surged to trade near its highest in around two weeks against the Japanese yen. The release of economic event that is forecast to dispense the

On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar surged to trade near its highest in around two weeks against the Japanese yen. The release of economic event that is forecast to dispense the U.S. manufacturing division turned to extension, which would ease concern about the influence of the continuing Sino-U.S. trade war.

The Reserve Bank of Newzealand has lowered the cash rate by 0.25% to a historic low of 0.75%. It’s the third cut this year; Governor Philip Lowe announced the economy was at a turning point, but the possibility of crawling jobs growth and moderate inflation convinced him of the call to act; The Aussie dollar dipped 0.4% to US67.22c; Some economists were predicting further rate cuts this year;

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

EUR/USD currency pair flashing red and dropped by 4% since the 2n d quarter of 2018, as of wiring the currency pair is closed at 1.0885 during the Monday.

The fresh drop in the EUR/USD currency pair came mainly due to tee German slowdown fears and the dovish European Central bank expectations. As we know, the central bank delivered the rate cut by the ten-basis-points to -0.50% last month and planned to restart bond purchase from November 01.

However, the Eurozone Consumer Prices Index data os scheduled to release at 09:00 GMT is anticipated to represent the cost of living in the currency bloc increase 1% yearly during the September.

On the other hand, WTI crude oil prices sharply increased during September as the drone attack on Saudi oil output. As a consequence, the CPI headline could hit forecasted figures in the future. The increase in inflation can be temporary, reflecting the sudden surge in crude oil prices, which is why the WTI crude oil price movement may not stop the European Central Bank from the fresh rate cut. Therefore, CPI data against forecast may not put a buying under the EUR currency. 

It should also be noted that the currency pair may also get hints from the final September Purchasing Managers Indices, which is scheduled to release across the Eurozone.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0784

S2 1.0847

S1 1.0873

Pivot Point 1.091

R1 1.0936

R2 1.0974

R3 1.1037

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD is likely to continue trading lower due to violation of 1.0908 level. Below this, the bearish target is expected to be 1.0835 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair is trading in the tight range and currently trading at 108.09, representing gains from 107.78 to 108.15 highs during the night session due to the United States stocks had closed the month in the green.

The market seems a bit calm, assuming that we will not see Chinese markets open due to its China’s National Day holidays that started on the day and will continue to October 07. Moreover, all eyes stay on the trade talk expectations and the United States key data which is scheduled to release yet, as well as Nonfarm Payrolls later in this week.

As of data, the United States’ two-year treasury yields and the 10-year yields were stronger overnight, supportive the DXY to fresh cycle highs while U.S. stocks gained and flashed the green. The United States’ two-year treasury yields increased from 1.62% to 1.65%, whereas the ten-year yield rose 1.68% to 1.71%. 

As for stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, DJIA, ended 96.58 points higher to finish at 26,916.83, while the S&P 500 index rose 14.95 points, or 0.5%, to end at 2,976.74. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended at 7,999.34, for an increase of 0.1%.

The stock market was supported on some back trading concerning trade talks coupled with Federal Reserve rate cut extractions. Markets are pricing eight basis points of a rate cut at the October 31 meeting and a terminal rate of 1.14%.    

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.13

S2 107.56

S1 107.82

Pivot Point 108

R1 108.26

R2 108.44

R3 108.87

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the hourly chart, the USD/JPY violated the horizontal resistance area of around 108, which is now likely to support the USD/JPY around 108. On the upper side, the resistance continues to stay at 108.460 area. 

The MACD and RSI are still holding in the buying zone, and suggesting chances of a bullish trend. We should consider staying bullish above 108 level today to target 108.460.  

AUD/USD – Daily Analysis

AUD/USD was closed at 0.67492 after placing a low of 0.67409. The overall trend remained bearish that day.

At 6:00 GMT, the MI Inflation Gauge came as 0.1% from Melbourne Institute and at 6:30 GMT. 

The Private Sector Credit from Reserve Bank of Australia came as 0.2% against 0.3% expected to weigh the Australian Dollar. Weak economic data from Australia caused a selling trend for AUD/USD on Monday.

However, Strong U.S. Dollar due to the rise of the U.S. Dollar Index to 99.46 also played its role in the downward movement of AUD/USD on Monday. 

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut its rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday. The further rate cut would create a selling trend for AUD/USD.


Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 0.6705

S2 0.6728

S1 0.6739

Pivot Point 0.6752

R1 0.6762

R2 0.6775

R3 0.6798

AUD/USD – Trading Tips

The Australian central bank has delivered a 0.25% rate cut on October 01 which has triggered a dramatic sell-off in the AUD/USD currency pair. The AUD/USD is trading at 0.6710 area, exhibiting strong bearish trend.

In fact, the AUD/USD has formed a bearish engulfing candle on the 4-hour timeframe, which is likely to drive further selling in the AUD/USD pair. Today, let’s consider staying bearish below 0.6752 to target 0.6675.

All the best for trading. 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, September 30 – Major Trade Setups – Traders Set to Trade Monday! 

Happy Monday, Folks! 

A stellar week for the U.S. dollar index had price halt just shy of YTD highs at 99.37. Up 0.67% and recording its second week in positive

Happy Monday, Folks! 

A stellar week for the U.S. dollar index had price halt just shy of YTD highs at 99.37. Up 0.67% and recording its second week in positive

Happy Monday, Folks! 

A stellar week for the U.S. dollar index had price halt just shy of YTD highs at 99.37. Up 0.67% and recording its second week in positive territory, the next port of call, aside from 99.37, sits at 99.62, a robust weekly resistance level that draws history as far back as March 2015.

The main highlight of the week was U.S. House Speaker Pelosi opening a formal Trump impeachment inquiry over a controversial phone call between himself and his Ukrainian counterpart. Data was largely ignored. 

Consumer confidence declined in September, following a small slump in August. The Index presently holds at 125.1, falling from 134.2. Headline U.S. durable goods orders rose +0.2% m/m in August, topping the consensus view at -1.1%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau on Friday. U.S. personal consumption expenditures, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, fell 0.1% m/m, unable to meet consensus at 0.3%.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

Europe’s shared currency ended the week down 0.70% vs. the U.S. dollar. The week booted off undergoing heavy losses, beaten by dark flash PMI numbers and later pulled by resurgent dollar demand. 

Technically, weekly price trades very south of support at 1.0873, while daily run meets with the buying pressure at 1.0851-1.0950. The 4 hourly flow re-entered a descending channel creation (1.1109/1.0993) and is poised to make way for the essential figure 1.10 this week possibly.

Concerning macroeconomic figures, headline U.S. durable goods orders grew +0.2% m/m in August, beating the forecast of -1.1%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau on Friday. U.S. personal consumption expenditures, as per the U.s.s Bureau of Economic Analysis, fell 0.1% m/m, unable to meet consensus at 0.3%.

Technically, the H4 candles left 1.09 unchallenged Friday, sporting several lower candlestick shadows before rotating back within the descending channel formation (1.1109/1.0993). Aided on the back of daily demand highlighted above at 1.0851-1.0950, the pair certainly has scope to shake hands with September’s opening level at 1.0989, closely followed by the key figure 1.10 and channel resistance, this week.

 


Daily Support and Resistance 

S3 1.0814

S2 1.0872

S1 1.0895

Pivot Point 1.0931

R1 1.0954

R2 1.099

R3 1.1049

 

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

Consider staying bearish below 1.0936 and bullish above the same to capture quick take profits of 50 pips on either side. The market may trade sideways over neutral German CPI. However, the sharp variation in number can bring changes in the market. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

Last week, the USD/JPY was closed at 107.929 after placing a high of 108.178. Overall the movement of this pair showed a Bullish trend Last week.

Geopolitical issues were also cooled down a bit due to Saudi ‘Arabia’s decision about a ceasefire in Yemen. Moreover, the impeachment inquiry of Trump was also a headline last week for political anxiety in Washington but had a lesser effect on the U.S. Dollar Index. U.S. Yields rose after a decrease in Global Political & Economic tensions and gave strength to U.S. Dollar against Japanese Yen last week.

On Friday, few reports showed that U.S. President Donald ‘ Trump’s administration was considering the option to delist Chinese companies from US Stock Exchange, and it was also planning to limit the U.S. investors’investors’ portfolio flows in Chinese companies. These reports cause a slowdown in the upward trend of USD/JPY.

On the other hand, the speech of BOJ governor, Kuroda last week, expressed the concerns of Bank of Japan over the escalating risks to the economy. 


Daily Support and Resistance 

R3: 108.98

R2: 108.45

R1: 108.19

Pivot Point 107.92

S1: 107.66

S2: 107.4

S3: 106.87

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY violated the bullish channel on the hourly chart, which was extending its support around 107.950 area. On the 4 hour timeframe, the 20 and 50 moving averages are reflecting the bearish trend in the USD/JPY. The Japanese yen may find support at 107.750 against the U.S. dollar along with resistance at 107.885. Consider staying bearish below 107.900 today as the pair is likely to stay bearish in the short term. 

AUD/USD – Daily Analysis

The Australian dollar wrapped up the week unmoved against the buck last week, unable to overthrow channel support taken from the low 0.7003. To the upside, resistance resides close by at 0.6828, with a break of the channel mentioned above possibly exposing 0.6677, the YTD low. As is painfully evident on the weekly chart, the long-term downtrend remains in full swing and has done since early 2018. 

Support at 0.6733 endures a significant fixture on the daily timeframe, as does resistance outlined at 0.6833. Likewise, the interest is the 200/50-day SMAs both fronting south. A breach of the said support can help target the market around 0.6687, followed by support at 0.6301 

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 0.6688

S2 0.6723

S1 0.6736

Pivot Point 0.6759

R1 0.6772

R2 0.6794

R3 0.6829

AUD/USD – Trading Tips

The Australian central bank is expected to deliver a 0.25% rate cut on October 01. However, the United States Durable goods Orders, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and Personal Consumption data might consider short-term investors during the following part of the day.

The AUD/USD is trading at 0.6750 area, maintaining a short trading range of 0.6800 – 0.6750 range on Monday. The 50 periods exponential moving average is neutral but mostly suggesting a bearish bias on the 4-hour timeframe. 

Whereas, the MACD is consolidating in a green and red zone, indicating a neutral bias among traders. Hence, let’s keep an eye on 0.6759 to stay bullish and bearish below this level. 

All the best for trading. 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Sept 20 – Daily Briefing- Forex & Commodities In Focus

EUR/USD – Ascending Triangle Pattern In Play

The U.S. dollar trimmed lower against the euro and declined to the lowest in almost three weeks. As for the European Affairs Minister, Italy proposed the public debt within the Eurozone nations to be taken below 60% of the gross domestic product, via a long-term restructuring approved by the European Central Bank. The thoughts of reduction in debt extended support to the EUR/USD.

EUR/USD – Technical Levels
R3: 1.1828
R2: 1.1748
R1: 1.1717
Key Trading Level: 1.1667
S1: 1.1636
S2: 1.1587
S3: 1.1506

Trend continuation of EUR/USD is likely to be resolved by how investors react to the 1.1666 level which coincides with an ascending trendline. Therefore, a buying momentum above is needed if we want to see this pair reaching the 1.1900 final target. It is worth noticing that 1.1725 represents a heavy hurdle. On the contrary, the failure of the 1.1666 area would bring bears (i.e., sellers) back into the play field. Near-term downside targets are 1.1602, 1.15 and 1.10.

GBP/USD – UK Inflation Figures Underpins Sterling

After yesterday upbeating inflation figures, today´s docket brought us Retail Consumer data. Overall, retail sales numbers were worse than in the previous term but a bit better than expected, i.e., the (YoY) in August came at 3.3% v. 2.3% expected and 3.8% previous. By the time of writing this report, the Pound is reached yesterday´s High at 1.3200, the highest since July.

We still believe that everything for the Sterling is about Brexit and its negotiation ongoings. We could well witness a similar price action as yesterday, as we observe that sentiment is shifting to the downside. How long this will take is still uncertain.

GBP/USD – Technical Levels
R3: 1.3319
R2: 1.3225
R1: 1.3191
Key Trading Level: 1.3132
S1: 1.3098
S2: 1.3039
S3: 1.2945

The GBP/USD remains bullish at this point as long as it holds the 1.3135 support level. Rebound from 1.3135 could extend the Cable higher to 1.3190. However, the bearish breakout of 1.3135 can cause a drop up to 1.3100.

 

USD/JPY – Ascending Triangle Pattern

The USD/JPY remain mostly unchanged as the Bank of Japan interest rates were left unchanged at -0.1%, which was in line with traders forecasts. The Central Bank is also keeping its promise to keep 10-year government bond yields at 0% over the mid-term.

While leaving policy stable, inflation remains the biggest fear of both the government and BoJ. However, confidence towards the economy was pondered in the monetary policy statement regardless of growing tensions around global trade war. The Japanese Yen advanced from ¥112.324 to ¥112.349 against the Dollar, upon an announcement of the statement.

USD/JPY – Technical Levels
R3: 112.61
R2: 112.26
R1: 112.06
Key Trading Level: 111.91
S1: 111.7
S2: 111.56
S3: 111.21

For the moment, the immediate support level is likely to be 112.150. In the 4 hours chart, the pair extends moving away from it’s 100 and 200 SMA, with the smallest gaining upward traction, currently at about 111.45.

In the cited chart, the Relative Strength Index is crossing above 50, signifying the bullish bias of traders. As a result, the pair is heading north towards the potential target levels of 113.100, 114.150 and 115.300.

Gold – Ascending Triangle Pattern In Focus

The precious metal gold bounced as the dollar declined, symbolizing investors are starting to bother about the impact of the U.S.-China trade war on the U.S. economy, attracting some buyers back into gold investments. Gold prices have decreased by nearly 12% since April, damaged by the intensifying conflict and on growing U.S. interest rates with investors buying the dollar in the hope the United States has limited to lose from the conflict.

Gold – Technical Levels
R3: 1214.88
R2: 1207.08
R1: 1202.72
Key Trading Level: 1199.27
S1: 1194.92
S2: 1191.47
S3: 1183.66

For the moment, gold has formed an ascending triangle pattern which is signaling the bullish bias of traders. The precious metal is trading at 1203 with an immediate support near 1197 and a resistance at 1209.

 

 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily Briefing- Forex & Commodities In Focus

EUR/USD – Bounces Off After Inflation Report

The demand for the European currency continues firm at the inception of the week, raising EUR/USD to new daily highs in the 1.1690 zone. The index proceeds to gain from Friday’s pullback, climbing up after reaching solid contention in the 1.1620 areas.

 

Fundamentally, the downside risk from concerns regarding Italian fiscal sustainability now appears much more near term. However, the investors still believe the relative-rate support for the USD versus the EUR concurrently with the lingering trade war can cause a bearish pressure on the EUR/USD currency pair.

 

EUR/USD – Technical Levels
R3: 1.1858
R2: 1.1756
R1: 1.169
Key Trading Level: 1.1655
S1: 1.1588
S2: 1.1554
S3: 1.1452

GBP/USD – Goes For a Bullish Ride

Fundamentally, the European Union and Britain yet have a task to do to resolve a range of matters in Brexit negotiations including bypassing a “hard” border in Ireland, the EU stated before its negotiator Michel Barnier briefs ministers from member states.

The GBP/USD remains bullish at this point as long as it holds the 1.3135 support level. Rebound from 1.3135 could extend the Cable higher to 1.3190. However, the bearish breakout of 1.3135 can cause a drop up to 1.3100.

GBP/USD – Technical Levels
R3: 1.3266
R2: 1.3178
R1: 1.3124
Key Trading Level: 1.309
S1: 1.3036
S2: 1.3002
S3: 1.2915

 

USD/JPY – Ascending Triangle Pattern

The USD/JPY is pointing little change in the Monday session. At the moment, the pair is trading at 111.97, depressed 0.08% on the day. In economic headlines, it’s a modest inception to the week. The U.S Empire State Manufacturing Index sank piercingly from 25.6 to 19.0 points. This missed the forecast of 23.2 and was the weakest figure in five months.

For now, the monthly Bank of Japan rate meeting is awaited which is coming out on Tuesday. But it’s not expected to cause any major move in the market. As policymakers are foreseen to keep the short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and a promise to guide long-term rates near 0%.

 

USD/JPY – Technical Levels
R3: 112.83
R2: 112.41
R1: 112.24
Key Trading Level: 112
S1: 111.82
S2: 111.58
S3: 111.16

Gold Jumps above $1200 – Weaker Dollar In Play

Gold has begun the week with heavy gains. In Monday’s North American business, the spot rate for one ounce of gold is $1202.93, up 0.74% on the day. In the U.S, a key manufacturing report failed to surprise the market. The Empire State Manufacturing Index fell sharply, dropping from 25.6 to 19.0 points, causing a weakness in the dollar and bringing bulls for the gold.

Is the US-China trade war about to open a new stage? The world’s two biggest economies have now exchanged tariffs, and President Trump has frightened to piercingly up the ante and force tariffs of some $200 billion on China which is also causing a sort of haven appeal in the market. The greenback remains under pressure in the absence of economic catalysts. That’s why we are seeing a bullish trend in gold.

 

For the moment, the precious metal is heading north towards the major resistance level of 1208. On the 2 – hour chart, you can see it’s a triple top pattern and historically pattern is known for the bearish reversals.

 

Gold  – Technical Levels
R3: 1230.09
R2: 1214.21
R1: 1203.9
Key Trading Level: 1198.33
S1: 1188.02
S2: 1182.45
S3: 1166.57

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily-Active Day for European Assets; Heaving Data Awaits!

NZD/USD

With this kind of clear ending diagonal on the last 5th wave and daily Doji candle confirmation, retrace up was highly anticipated, as you can see in our previous analysis we suggested buying NZD/USD at 0.6530, with the stop below the previous low and the target of at least 300 pips. On H1 chart the pair very precisely has drawn 5 legs up, and it retraced to Fibo 0.38% level, which is also very usual for the second wave retrace. The direction is UP, but alternatively, we could see some flat correction again to our entry point around 0.6835, which can bring us one more opportunity to add to the buying position. In any case, we do suggest to sit tight with this long position, stay patient, and wait for solid profit.



DAX

The index does not show a very clear picture. It is drawing more complex pattern a double tree, and it’s very tricky, but in any case, this recently retraces up, should come in at least 3 legs up. So we will track the scenario of an ABC pullback up like it is shown on the chart. Cautious required.



GBP/USD

Obviously, GBP/USD rebounding up. The only thing that we should calculate is our projection for this retrace ending. We do believe that current retrace could be labelled as wave 2, so we will expect to be done anywhere from 0,38% Fibonacci retracement. Our current projection, as it is shown on the chart is short-term long, and long-term short, so the pair brings opportunity for any tastes, wheater you are a long or short-term trader.



USD/JPY

Obviously, this is a weekly chart, and this is a long-term perspective. Currently, we are tracking the triangle, which is very usual for the 4th Elliott wave. Price action in this wave often tends to range, without a clear trend move. As you can see on the chart we have perfectly labelled a,b,c,d leg and we now expect pull back down for e leg, which will represent finish of the 4th wave, and we should expect resume of an uptrend for the wave 5 up.



EUR/USD

As we already highlighted we are tracking pullback leg 3 or C from the zigzag A-B-C pattern after 5 waves down were completed all the way down from the 24.January high in EUR/USD. The area around 50% Fibonacci retracement or 1.1930, is our targeted region for this long position. The reason behind it is that wave A and wave C tend towards equality in length, and that retracement for the pullback of the second wave usually comes to 0,50 to 0,618% Fibo levels. But, this pullback down, may not be done yet, and before we test our projected profit target of 1,1930, we may see pullback down below 1,1520.



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Forex Market Analysis

Daily Review: Gold, EUR/USD, GBP/USD Technical & Fundamental Outlook!

EUR/USD – ECB Strengthens the Single Currency

The ECB persists constructive. Today, it left monetary policy stable, proving its expectation that net asset purchases will stop in December and policy rates will persist at their prevailing levels at least through the summer of 2019. The ECB also broadly affirmed its forecast for GDP and CPI as well as the risks to an extension, with the latter still seen as widely balanced amid rebounding domestic demand. The only concession to the doves was the acknowledgment that uncertainty relating to protectionism, emerging markets and financial market volatility “gained more prominence recently”.

EUR/USD rose 0.45% to $1.1678 following the European Central Bank’s widely expected unchanged rate decision and signs the central bank is committed to ending its bond-buying program. The EUR/USD has come out of the sideways channel and can head to 1.1718. While the support prevails at 1.1665.

GBP/USD Soars On Hawkish BOE

GBP/USD rose 0.50% to $1.3107 $1.3108 as the Bank of England held rates steady but expressed optimism over the U.K. economy, citing both stronger-than-expected second-quarter economic and wage growth. The GBP/USD is facing a strong resistance near 1.3135 and support at 1.3080. The ascending triangle patterns usually violate on the bullish side and that’s exactly what we can expect from the Cable today. The bullish breakout can lead the pair towards 1.3165

 

Gold Jumps on Weaker Dollar

Gold prices slid on Thursday as investors purchased riskier assets instead of seeking a safe haven in gold, amid hopes for a new round of U.S.-China trade talks. The dollar index declined against a basket of major currencies after data showed U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in August, paring traders’ outlook that domestic inflation is accelerating.

On the hourly chart, gold has crossed above the significant resistance level of 1198. The immediate resistance can be found at 1209 levels. The leading indicators like RSI crossed above 50, signifying the bullish sentiment of traders. At the moment, 1197 is likely to work as a support.

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily Review: Gold, EUR/USD, GBP/USD In Focus!

EUR/USD

 

Fundamental Analysis

The EUR/USD has trimmed lower in the London session and the pair is trading at 1.1576, down 0.20% on the day. Speaking about fundamentals, the Eurozone industrial production faded 0.8%, dropping the estimate of -0.5%. What’s next?

 

Well, we got the PPI and Core PPI figures from the United States. Both are anticipated to grow to 0.2%  and can support the dollar today. Let’s see how the actual outcome impacts the market.

Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD is trading in a sideways channel which is providing it a nice support at 1.1570 and resistance at 1.1605. The EUR/USD is likely to target 1.1645 upon the bullish breakout, while, the bearish breakout is likely to open further room for selling until 1.1530.

 

GBP/USD

 

Fundamental Analysis

The GBP/USD pair fought for a firm course but remained stuck in between tepid gains/minor losses, within a broader trading range through the early European session.  While the pair is relatively range bound as the investors seem to save their shots ahead of the Bank of England’s rate decisions. In today’s market, the intra-day lows hit by the pair could be seen as the impact of investors interests over global trade tensions which supported the safe-haven appeal for the greenback.

 

Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD has formed an ascending triangle pattern which is providing it a strong resistance near 1.3035 and support at 1.2980. The ascending triangle patterns usually violate on the bullish side and that’s exactly what we can expect from the Cable today. The bullish breakout can lead the pair towards 1.3075.

Gold – XAU/USD

 

Fundamental Analysis

Earlier today, the gold remained stuck in a narrow trading range as investors worry about a heated trade war between the United States and China. The trade dispute between Washington and Beijing has urged investors to buy the U.S. dollar in the hope that the United States has fewer to lose from the conflict. Overall, the Gold has been stabbed in a $20 price limit over the prior two weeks, with traders seeing for technical breakouts for evidence on further movements.

Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart, gold has crossed above the significant resistance level of 1198. The immediate resistance can be found at 1203 and 1206 levels. The leading indicators like RSI and CMF have crossed above 50, signifying the bullish sentiment of traders. For now, 1197 is likely to work as a support. The U.S. inflation will be in focus tomorrow for further clues on gold’s movement.

 

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Forex Market Analysis

Forex and Indices – Daily Update – 06.08.18

Fundamental Overview

The U.S. Dollar leads the market sentiment.

Monday’s trading session starts with the US Dollar Index gaining 0.21 per cent against the main currencies. The Aussie Dollar dips 0.19 per cent expecting for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision which will take place in the overnight session. The analysts’ consensus does not expect changes in the monetary policy decision which should remain at 1.5 per cent, this despite the inflation (YoY) reached the 2.1 per cent, beating the 2 per cent RBA’s target.

source: tradingeconomics.com

 

Technical Analysis

EURUSD

 

The EURUSD pair in the 1-hour chart is moving bearish, below the first daily support located at 1.1547 and the second daily support at 1.1528. For long positions, the price should close above the breakdown candle at 1.1566, with a potential profit target in the first daily resistance at 1.1597. In the short position case, the second daily support breakdown could drive to the confluence between the third daily support and the first weekly support at  1.15015. Consider that this level could act as a potential reversal level.


GBPUSD

The Cable is moving bearish and is the worst performer of the session falling more than 0.5 per cent. The GBPUSD pair is testing the first weekly support at 1.2924. The bearish movement continuation could send the price to the third daily support at 1.28999, consider this level as a potential reversal zone. For bullish positions, the price should break above the breakdown candle at 1.2968 level, with a potential profit target in the daily pivot level at 1.30055.


USDCHF

 

The Swiss currency, from the past week, has moved bullish in five clear moves, currently is testing the confluence zone between the first weekly resistance and the second daily resistance on the 0.9986 area. A breakout of this level could carry to the price to reach the third daily resistance located at 1.0007 level. In the opposite case, the reversal move from the current zone could drive to fall to the weekly pivot level situated at 0.99238.


EURCAD

After the Friday 03 breakdown candle, the EURCAD cross consolidates between the daily pivot at 1.50490 and near to the first daily support at 1.50113. A breakdown below 1.50113 as a bearish continuation, could pull the price to touch the second daily support located at 1.4967 level. For the contrary, the breakout and close above 1.50490, could lead to the EURCAD to re-test the previous high at 1.51009 level.


EURNZD

EURNZD cross is running slightly bullish inside of an upper degree sideways structure. The price is testing the zone between the weekly pivot and the daily pivot on the range between 1.7166 and 1.7170. For long positions, the price should break and close above 1.7170, with a potential target in the first weekly support at 1.7210. For short positions, the breakdown and close below 1.7133 should drag the price to the second weekly support at 1.70546 level.


FTSE 100

FTSE 100 in the first trading session of the week, is moving in a limited range between 7,635 and 7,679 pts., which could be characterised by the stational August lower volatility. For long positions the price should break above 7,679 pts., and could push to the British index to the HHL level at 7,740 pts. For the contrarian, the selling side should be valued if the price breaks under 7,635 pts., with a potential target in the first daily support located at 7,601 pts.


DAX 30

In the last four hours, DAX 30 is moving below the weekly pivot level, in a range between the 12,541 and 12,615 pts. After the DAX made the “V-Turn” in the first hours of the Monday session, testing the low of the Tuesday 02 session at 12,706 pts., we foresee that this level will be relevant short-term so we need to stalk it. Long positions should be considered as long as the price breaks and close above 12,615, with a potential target on the first weekly resistance at 12,653 pts. For short positions, the German index should breaks under the low of the day at 12,541, with a potential target on the first weekly support at 12,452 pts.


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Forex Market Analysis

Forex and Indices – Daily Update – 03.08.18

Fundamental Overview

The U.S. unemployment rate declined to 3.9 per cent in July.

During the Friday trading session, the US Labor Department issued the employment data for July. Non-farm payrolls reached 157,000 new jobs, being lesser than the 190,000 expected by analysts, and was worst than the 248,000 jobs created in June. The unemployment rate for its part fell to 3.9% in July from 4% reported in June by the Labor Department. Despite these data, it is still not possible to reach the level reached in May, which reached 3.8%. Finally, Average Hourly Earnings increased to 0.3% in July from the 0.1% registered in June. The following question is how much will impact the increase in average earnings in the consumer confidence and inflation rate?

source: tradingeconomics.com

Technical Analysis

EURUSD

EURUSD in the 1-hour chart is consolidating between the daily pivot level and the first daily support. For long positions, we need to wait for the close above 1.16, with a profit target in the first daily resistance at 1.1640. Short positions should be valued if the price breaks and close below 1.1580 with a potential profit target in the second weekly support at 1.1544.


GBPUSD

GBPUSD is testing as the support the lower HHL at 1.30103, a consolidation below this level could be a signal for more weakness. For short positions, the price should break and close below 1.30 level with a potential profit target in the lower low of July 19 at 1.2957. For long positions, the price must to break and consolidate above 1.3038 with a potential target in the weekly pivot level at 1.3130.


USDCHF

The USDCHF pair has moved bullish following the triangle pattern as a continuation structure. Currently, the pair is running between the first daily resistance and the daily pivot level. Long positions could be valued if the price breaks above 0.9960, with a potential profit target in the first weekly resistance at 0.9976. For short positions, the price must close under the daily pivot level at 0.9941, with a potential profit target in the confluence between the second daily support and the first weekly support at 0.99.


EURAUD

 

EURAUD is moving sideways between 1.5724 and 1.5782. Currently, the cross is testing the lower base of the range. A breakdown could drive to the EURAUD drop to the first weekly support at 1.5673. In the bullish scenario, the price could reach the second daily resistance at 1.5818.


GBPAUD

GBPAUD is moving sideways testing the base of the lateral channel in the same way that EURAUD. The breakdown could trigger more falls with a potential target in the second weekly support at 1.7572. For the bullish case, the breakout above 1.7690 could lead the price to the potential profit in the daily pivot level at 1.7720.


FTSE 100

The British index FTSE 100 is consolidating in the confluence zone between the second daily support and second weekly support. For short positions, the price should break below 7,551 pts., with a potential profit target in the third weekly support at 7,516 pts. For the reversal case, long positions should be valued if the price breaks above 7,590 pts, with a potential target in the next swing zone at 7,661 pts.


DAX 30

The DAX 30 is consolidating below the third daily support. In this case, it is highly probable that the price makes a reversal move, at least, to the first daily support located at 12,684 pts. For short positions, the price should close below 12,485 pts, with a potential target in the second weekly support at 12,348 pts.


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Forex Market Analysis

Forex and Indices – Daily Update 02.08.18

Fundamental Overview

In today’s session, market sentiment is led by the preference of risk protection assets facing the expectation for the US employment data, which will be announced on the Friday 03rd session. The US Dollar and Japanese Yen, which advanced 0.30% and 0.30% respectively. Within the commodity currencies group, the oceanic currencies are the hardest hit; the New Zealand Dollar is the worst performer which falls 0.49%, followed by the Australian dollar that drops 0.45% in the trading session.

Source: Forex Academy Collection

 

 

Technical Analysis

EURUSD

EURUSD in the 1-hour chart is moving bearish, below the weekly pivot level. For short positions, the price should break under the 1.1657 level with a profit target in the confluence zone between the first weekly support and the Lower HHL at 1.16061 level. For long positions (reversal case), the price should break above the breakdown candle at 1.1691, with a profit target between the confluence zone between the first weekly resistance and the Upper HHL at 1.1729.



GBPUSD

The pair GBPUSD is moving slightly bearish below the weekly pivot consolidating between 1.3090 and 1.3140. A breakdown below 1.309 could drive to the pound to the first weekly support at 1.3050. The bullish case, if the price breaks above 1.3140, the potential target is the first weekly resistance located at 1.3189.




USDCHF

USDCHF in the hourly chart is consolidating as a triangle pattern; this chart pattern suggests more upsides. For long positions, is essential that the price breaks above the weekly pivot level at 0.9937, with a profit target at the third daily resistance at 0.9974. Short positions should be valued if the price breaks under 0.9917, the potential target is the HHL at 0.9880.



EURGBP

The EURGBP cross is running bearish and is consolidating as a flag pattern. For bearish continuation, the price could drop to the confluence zone between the second daily support and the first weekly support at 0.8860. For long positions, the price should break above the weekly pivot level at 0.8897 with a potential move to the HHL at 0.8928.


GBPNZD

The GBPNZD cross is running sideways with a bullish bias in the last sequence which started from the first weekly support at 1.76318. For long positions, the price should break above the first daily resistance with a mid-term target placed on the confluence between the second weekly resistance and the third daily resistance at 1.7864. Short positions should be valued if the price closes below the daily pivot level at 1.77059, and the potential target is at the first weekly support at 1.76318.


DAX 30

DAX 30 is moving slightly neutral in the weekly pivot level at 12,746 pts. For short positions, the price should break below 12,707 with a potential target in the first weekly support at 12,604 pts. Long positions should be regarded if the German index closes above 12,800 pts, with a potential profit target at 12,920 pts.



FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 index shows bearish signals closing below the weekly pivot level at 7,687.9 pts. Continuation of the previous bearish move should be valued if the price breaks under the first weekly pivot at 7,635.2 pts., with a profit target in the confluence zone between the HHL and the third weekly support at 7,521 pts. Long positions could be valued if the price breaks above the weekly pivot level, with a potential target in the first weekly resistance at 7,754 pts. Additionally, note that if the price plunges to the third weekly support, it could be an interesting reversal level.


Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Forex and Indices – Daily Update 26.07.18

Fundamental Overview

Forex News: The market sentiment of the session was led by the US Dollar (DXY), which advanced against the main currencies group climbing 0.68 per cent. The Dollar boost was aided on the one hand, by the labour market data, in the Thursday session the Initial Jobless Claims data rose 217,000, which despite the increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised level, continue showing optimistic levels for the American economy. On the other hand, the ECB interest rate decision continues without changes for the common currency, contributing to the strength in the USD appreciation. The worst performer currency of the session was in the “commodities currencies group”; the Aussie (AUD) fell 1.04 per cent dragged by the dive in Copper price which retraced 1.59 per cent.

Forex News – Daily Performance

Forex News - Daily PerformanceSource: Forex.Academy Collection.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD

EURUSD made a false breakout which could not reach the first daily resistance, turning to the daily pivot and even falling below the weekly pivot point changing the market sentiment from bullish to bearish. For long positions, we need to see the breakout above the bearish breakdown candle at 1.1710, with a first potential profit target placed at the first daily resistance at 1.1756, the second potential target is the confluence level between the second daily resistance and the first weekly resistance at 1.1785. Short positions should be valued as a continuation of the breakdown, with a profit potential target at 1.1615. Pay attention to this area because the confluence with the third daily resistance at 1.16077 could be a potential buy zone.



GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair in the 30-minutes chart tested the first daily resistance of the intraday trading session at 1.3214, After this, the price made a re-test, from where the pound started to fall and found support in the weekly pivot point at 1.31257. For long positions, the price should break over the daily pivot level at 1.31739 with a potential profit target at 1.3215 (first intraday resistance). Short positions should be valued as the continuation of the previous movement when the price breaks under the weekly pivot level (1.31257) with a potential target in second daily support at 1.31065.



USDCHF

The Swiss currency in the 30-minutes chart continues moving sideways between the first daily support (0.99007) and below the first daily resistance (0.9942). For long positions, the USDCHF should break above the first daily resistance at 0.9942 level with a short-term target at 0.9960 (weekly pivot level); for bearish positions, we need to see that the price to close below the intraday range at 0.9910 with a potential profit target in 0.9877 (first weekly support.)



EURCAD

The EURCAD cross in the 30-minutes chart is moving bearish, testing the second weekly support located at 1.52488. For bullish positions, the price should break and consolidate above 1.5278 with a potential target is at the first weekly support at 1.5325. For bearish positions, as a continuation of the trend, the price could drop to the third weekly support at 1.51778.



GBPCAD

The GBPAUD cross is moving bearish nearly above the first weekly support at 1.71211. For long positions, the price should breakdown candle at 1.7185 with a potential target on the daily pivot level at 1.7232. If we are looking bearish continuation, the price could see the bottom at the 1.70067 level (confluence zone between the third daily support and second weekly support.)



FTSE 100

FTSE 100 in the 30-minutes chart is moving in a narrow range below the daily pivot level (7,669.8 pts) and above the weekly pivot level (7,649 pts.) For bullish positions, the price should break above 7,686 pts, with a potential target on the first weekly resistance at 7,735 pts, which is the convergence zone with the second daily resistance. Bearish positions should be considered if FTSE 100 index breaks below the weekly pivot level at 7,649 with a potential profit target at the first weekly support (7,593 pts.), the second profit target is the HHL at 7,521 pts.



DAX 30

The DAX index 30 in the 30-minutes chart soared to the third daily resistance (12,827 pts), from this zone we have two options. Long positions could extend to the second weekly resistance at 12,912 pts, only if the price breaks above the 12,827 pts. The second option is for short trades; it could be considered if the price breaks below 12,715 pts with a profit target located at 12,604 pts.



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Forex Market Analysis

Forex and Indices – Daily Update – 25.07.18

Fundamental Overview

President Trump will meet with Juncker.

US President Donald Trump will meet with the president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, in an attempt to overcome the difficulties in bilateral relations between the United States and the European Union, specifically facing the application of additional tariffs to European cars exported to the United States which Trump seeks to increase.

The European Union applies additional 10 per cent tariffs to automobiles imported from the United States, while the United States applies only 2.5 per cent to European cars. Finally, President Trump commented on his Twitter account that both the United States and the European Union should eliminate all tariffs, barriers and subsidies, making trade between them both more just.

 

Technical Analysis

Forex Trading Indicators

EURUSD

Forex Trading Indicators: EURUSD continue moving sideways but with an intraday bullish bias. The price continues bouncing from the daily pivot at 1.1684. For intraday positions, long positions should be considered if the price breaks above 1.1710, with a potential profit target placed at the second resistance at 1.1747 and the second potential target in the area between the third daily resistance (1.1777) and the first weekly resistance (1.1785). Short positions should be valued if the pair breaks down the weekly pivot level at 1.1680 with a profit potential target at 1.1615.

 


 

GBPUSD

Forex Trading Indicators: The GBPUSD pair, as seen on a 30-minutes chart, broke up and consolidated above the first daily resistance on Tuesday 24th’s trading session. In the current session, the price can not strike above the first intraday resistance (1.3178.) For long positions, the price should break over 1.3175 with a potential profit target at 1.3212 (second intraday resistance). Short positions could be valued when the price breaks under 1.3140 with a potential target in first daily support at 1.3090.

 


 

USDCHF

Forex Trading Indicators: The USDCHF pair in the 30-minutes chart is moving sideways between the daily pivot (0.9937) and slightly below the first intraday support (0.9915). For long positions, the Swiss currency should break above the daily pivot level with a short-term target at 0.9960 (weekly pivot level); for bearish continuation, we need to see a price close below the intraday range at 0.9914, the potential profit target is at 0.9887 (third daily support).

 


 

EURAUD

Forex Trading Indicators: The EURAUD cross in the 30-minutes chart is testing the confluence between the daily and weekly pivot point at 1.5778. For bullish positions, the price should break above 1.58, and the potential target is at the first intraday resistance (1.5829). Bearish positions should be considered if the cross breaks under 1.5717 with a profit target in the confluence zone between the first weekly support (1.56735) and the second daily support (1.56612).

 


 

GBPAUD

Forex Trading Indicators: The GBPAUD cross is running sideways between 1.7680 and 1.7794. For long positions, the price should break above 1.7778, and its potential target is slightly above the first weekly resistance at 1.7858. In the case of short positions, the price should break down 1.7680, with a potential target at 1.7589 level.

 


 

FTSE 100

Forex Trading Indicators: The FTSE 100 in the 30-minutes chart turned bearish moving from the daily pivot at 7,699 to the weekly pivot level (7,649.9). For bullish positions, the price should break above 7,700 pts, with a potential target at 7,791 pts, which is the convergence zone between the second weekly resistance level and the second daily resistance. Bearish positions should be valued if the British index breaks under the weekly pivot level at 7,649 with a potential profit at the first weekly support (7,593 pts.), the second profit target is the HHL at 7,521 pts.

 


 

DAX 30

Forex Trading Indicators: DAX 30 in the 30 minutes chart. After failing the test to the first weekly resistance (12,737.1 pts.), the German index moves bearish below the daily and weekly pivot level turning to bearish the market sentiment. For long positions, we need to see the breakout above 12,600 pts with a potential target in the re-test of the first weekly resistance at 12,737 pts. A short position is considered if the price breaks down 12,537, and its potential target is the second weekly support at 12,293 pts with extension in the HHL at 12,143 pts.

 


 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Forex and Indices – Daily Update – 24.07.18

Fundamental Overview

Mixed data of preliminary PMI in the Eurozone.

The Flash Purchase Managers Index (PMI) data in July show signs that this third quarter for the eurozone has begun to lose the buoyant momentum that registered during the first half of the year. Manufacturing PMI modestly reached 55.1 points, slightly higher than the 54.9 points reached in June. In the opposite side, Services PMI index fell to 54.4 points from the 55.2 points reported in June. The slowdown in growth momentum suggests that similar levels could be seen in August.


source: tradingeconomics.com

The main cause of this deceleration could be attributed to the fuels price increase of oil as well as the increase in tariffs on steel and aluminium.


source: tradingeconomics.com

Forex and Indices Technical Analysis

EURUSD

The EURUSD in 30-minutes chart continues consolidating. The price is moving above the weekly pivot suggesting a bullish pressure for the pair. Long positions should be considered if the price breaks above 1.1710, with a potential profit target placed at 1.1775. Short positions should be valued if the pair breaks down 1.1667 with a profit target at 1.1615


GBPUSD

The GBPUSD in the 30-minutes chart is consolidating the Friday 20th rally. For long positions, the price must break above 1.3137 with a potential profit target at 1.3208. Short positions should be considered if the price breaks under 1.3085 with a potential target at 1.3022.


USDCHF

The pair USDCHF in the 30-minutes chart is developing a bullish retrace of the previous sell-off. For bullish positions, the next resistance is 0.996; for bearish continuation, the critical support to break down is 0.9922, and the potential profit target is at 0.9887.


EURCHF

The EURCHF cross in the 30-minutes chart is testing resistance with the 200-period moving average which is converging with the first daily resistance. For long positions, we need to see the breakout of the 1.1629 level with a potential target at 1.165 (Weekly Pivot Zone). In the bearish side, the price should break under 1.1603 level, with a potential profit target at 1.1582.


GBPCHF

The GBPCHF cross is turning bullish after the 1.3049 level breakout. Long positions have the potential target at 1.3117, coinciding with the third daily resistance. On the short side, the price should break down 1.3001 level, with a potential target at 1.2965 level.


FTSE 100

FTSE 100 in the 30-minutes chart shows that the price is moving above 24 and 200 moving average. Also, the British index has bounced from the weekly pivot level, the next resistance es at 7,728. For bullish continuation, the next target is 7,786 pts, which is the convergence between the second weekly resistance level and the third daily resistance.


DAX 30

DAX 30 in the 30 minutes chart shows that the price has surpassed the third daily resistance without to make a reversal move to the daily pivot level, it suggests that the German index should continue with the bullish bias with a target placed at 12,855 pts (previous resistances confluence area.)


Check out Forex and Indices technical analysis for July 16, 2018.

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

European Union and Japan Sign a Trade Deal – Forex and Indices – Daily Update – 17.07.18

Fundamental Overview

European Union and Japan sign a trade deal
Financial Market Updates: Japan and the European Union signed a trade deal amid uncertainty generated by the protectionist policy

Fundamental Overview

European Union and Japan sign a trade deal
Financial Market Updates: Japan and the European Union signed a trade deal amid uncertainty generated by the protectionist policy

Fundamental Overview

European Union and Japan sign a trade deal

Financial Market Updates: Japan and the European Union signed a trade deal amid uncertainty generated by the protectionist policy led by the Trump Administration. The trade deal creates the largest open economic area. The agreement promises to eliminate 99 per cent of tariffs.

 

Technical Analysis

EURUSD

Today the EURUSD pair failed the bullish continuation, remaining in the consolidation range, it suggests that the pair should continue with the previous bearish cycle. In consequence, we update our bias from a bullish to a bearish move. The potential sell zone (PSZ) is between 1.1760 and 1.1807 with a bearish target placed at 1.1293. Invalidation level is 1.1852.

 


 

GBPUSD

As noticed in previous Daily Updates, the GBPUSD pair in a 2-hour chart is moving sideways, the short-term pivot level at 1.3275 has failed, in consequence, GBPUSD should make a new lower low. The Pound could fall to the area between 1.3024 and 1.2885, completing a major degree bearish cycle. Invalidation level is at 1.3472.

 


 

USDCHF

The complex corrective structure that is developing the USDCHF pair in the 2-hour chart shows a signal more for a bullish continuation than a downward reversal move. In the last session, the Swiss currency tested and bounced from the potential buy zone. We foresee USDCHF making a new higher high with the target placed in the area between 1.0112 and 1.0141. Invalidation level is at 0.9857.

 


 

EURJPY

The EURJPY cross in the 2-hour chart is moving bullish in an ascending wedge; the price tested the exhaustion zone between 132.01 and 133.05, from where we expect a bearish reversal move as a bull trap. We foresee drops to the area between 129.87 to 129.28. Consider that if the price makes a bull trap after this, it is highly likely that the price will make a bullish failure pattern.

 



 

GBPJPY

The GBPJPY cross in the 2-hour chart is making a consolidation pattern after a bullish impulsive move, which could make fresh highs to the area between 150 and 150.70. Our vision for the cross is that the price could make a limited low to the 146.2 level before it continues its previous bullish trend. Invalidation level is 143.799.

 



 

FTSE 100

As commented in previous Daily Update, FTSE 100 in the 2-hour chart continues consolidating between 7,720 pts and 7,550 pts. We maintain our bias as neutral in FTSE 100 index.

 



 

DAX 30

DAX 30 in the 2-hour chart soared above the 12,600 pts and is near to reaching the exhaustion zone at 12,695 pts. The next control level is 12,807 pts which could drive to 13,020 pts, completing an internal bullish cycle. Invalidation level of the bullish cycle is 12,104 pts.


Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Forex and Indices Daily Update – 16.07.18

Forex Fundamental Analysis

New Zealand CPI (YoY) increase 1.5 per cent in June.

The yearly inflation change in New Zealand increased by 1.5 per cent, below the 1.6 per cent foreseen by analysts and advance from the 1.1 per cent reported in April. Housing and household utilities advanced 3.1 per cent, followed by rentals which were up 2.5. The climb in oil prices, almost 10 per cent, boosted the transport sector to increase the CPI (YoY) 2.0 per cent.


source: tradingeconomics.com

 Technical Market Analysis

EURUSD

In the last session, EURUSD surpassed the Short-term Pivot Level at 1.1690. Now we expect a consolidation structure as a flag pattern before it continues increasing the bullish momentum to the target area at 1.19067. Invalidation level is 1.15080.



 

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair is still moving sideways in the 2-hour chart, testing the Short-term Pivot Level at 1.3275. The breakout of this level should activate the bullish continuation with a target placed in the 1.3475 zone. Invalidation level of the new bullish cycle is 1.30494.



 

USDCHF

The bearish move after the bull trap looks like a first bearish impulse. From now we should expect a retrace in three waves, probably to the 1.0009 area before it continues with another decline. In the long term, the USDCHF is bullish, in consequence, we will maintain neutral for this pair expecting opportunities to go long with the main trend.



 

EURNZD

The EURNZD cross in the 2-hour chart has broken down the ascending short-term trendline at 1.7248 with a bearish high momentum candle. We expect more drops with a target placed at the psychological level of 1.70. Invalidation level is at 1.73782.



 

GBPNZD

The GBPNZD cross in the 2-hour chart has broken down the ascending trendline as the same way that the EURNZD has. This suggests that we should see more strength in the NZD group against the other currencies. The first target is at 1.92393 from where we could see an exhaustion of the bearish cycle. Invalidation level is at 1.95802.



 

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 in the 2-hour chart continues to consolidate, developing a complex corrective structure. In terms of the traditional Technical Analysis, the structure could be a Diamond Pattern, if this is correct, we should see declines to the 7,400 area, if the falls extend, the next bearish target area could be 7,100 pts zone. We prefer to maintain neutral expecting for long positions.



 

DAX 30

DAX 30 in the 2-hour chart still is moving below the 12,600 pivot level. We can consider two scenarios: the first one is after the 12,600 level breakout to expect more climbs to the area between 12,695 to 12,742. The second one is if the price breaks down, the bearish target could be 12,040 pts. In the same way that in the FTSE, our position changes from bullish to neutral expecting long positions.



Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Weekly Technical Overview

US Dollar Index

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US Dollar Index is resuming its bullish trend. Nevertheless, even though

US Dollar Index

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US Dollar Index is resuming its bullish trend. Nevertheless, even though

US Dollar Index



 

US Dollar Index is resuming its bullish trend. Nevertheless, even though it has left behind many resistances now it is facing a horizontal resistance that will decide whether it creates a double top or breaks it and continues its run. For now, we wait to see its reaction the following week.

 

EURUSD



 

EURUSD has been moving sideways recently, mostly due to the uncertainty of the trade war between China and USA. However, in the upcoming days it should resume its bearish trend without any support ahead in the near term.

 

DAX



 

After weeks of moving sideways and without a clear direction, both fundamentals and technicals give positive reasons to be bullish at the indexes. Not only that the macroeconomic figures are forecasted to be strong but so are the quarterly results from both European and American corporations. Hence, we reopen a bullish position looking to profit the upcoming bull market.

 

GBPUSD 



 

GBPUSD is beginning the bearish trend we were waiting for. However, there is still a long way to go until it reaches the profit target. It can either resume the bearish trend or start moving sideways due to uncertainty. The next few weeks will be key to watch what happens both fundamentally and technically. For now, we remain bearish.

 

USDJPY



 

After weeks of waiting for the breakout, it is finally confirmed. Open positions have been opened waiting for the continuation of the bullish trend. It can either continue or do a retest which will eventually lead to a stronger confirmation of the breakout and the beginning of a bull run.

 

US Oil



 

Between resistances and supports there is not a clear path for oil prices apart from the many fundamental variables surrounding it. For now remain neutral awaiting a clear signal.