Tag: EUR-USD

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, June 30 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on U.S. News! 

On the news front, it’s going to be a busy day in the wake of U.S. Chicago PMI, C.B. Consumer Confidence, and Fed Chair Powell Testifies. The European session may exhibit muted trading, but the New York session is likely to bring sharp movements in the market, and we can expect breakouts.

On the news front, it’s going to be a busy day in the wake of U.S. Chicago PMI, C.B. Consumer Confidence, and Fed Chair Powell Testifies. The European session may exhibit muted trading, but the New York session is likely to bring sharp movements in the market, and we can expect breakouts.

On the news front, it’s going to be a busy day in the wake of U.S. Chicago PMI, C.B. Consumer Confidence, and Fed Chair Powell Testifies. The European session may exhibit muted trading, but the New York session is likely to bring sharp movements in the market, and we can expect breakouts.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.12423 after placing a high of 1.12876 and a low of 1.12149. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. During the Monday session, Euro broke higher and reached near 1.1300 level; however, U.S. dollar strength caped on any additional gains and took the prices away from that level. European Union has been praised for its handling of coronavirus crisis through its stimulus plans, and despite the increasing numbers of infected cases around the world, the E.U. has decided to open its gates for 15 countries.

European Union revealed a new list of countries that will be permitted to enter the E.U. from July 1 when external borders will be officially reopened. However, the U.S. was excluded from the permitted countries to enter the E.U. due to coronavirus developments. This raised Euro across the board on the hopes that tourism will aid in the fast E.U. economic recovery.

China was also excluded from the “safe list” of the European Union; however, if the Chinese government would offer a reciprocal travel deal for E.U. citizens, then the E.U. will add China to its “safe list.” E.U. has said that the safe list will be reviewed every two weeks and will be adjusted according to the coronavirus developments in each country.

Furthermore, Germany’s finance minister and lawmakers said on Monday that the European Central Bank (ECB) had met the principle of proportionality with its stimulus package that ended the legal conflict threatening to undermine central bank policy. The German Constitutional Court last month gave ECB 3 months to justify bond purchases under its stimulus plan –PSPP or lose German central bank as a participant. This raised Euro in the financial market and pushed EUR/USD pair higher on Monday.

On the data front, The German Prelim CPI for June surged to 0.6% from the expected 0.3% and supported Euro. At 12:00 GMT, the Spanish Flash CPI for the year was dropped by 0.3% against the expected drop by 0.9% and supported the single currency Euro.

The better than expected CPI data from Germany and Spain gave strength to Euro, which added in the gains of EUR/USD pair on Monday.

On the other hand, from the American side, the Pending Home Sales for May increased to 44.3% against 18.9%, which gave strength to the U.S. dollar that exerted downward pressure on EUR/USD at 19:00 GMT.

The U.S. Dollar was also intense because of its safe-haven status during increased US-China tensions and China-India conflict and rising number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. & many other countries. This dragged the rising EUR/USD and limited the gains of the pair on Monday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1241
  • R2 1.1235
  • R1 1.1229

Pivot Point 1.1223

  • S1 1.1217
  • S2 1.1211
  • S3 1.1205

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is holding below a strong resistance level of 1.1245 level, the closing of candles below this level is suggesting chances of selling bias until 1.1218 level. Continuation of selling trend below 1.1218 level can extend selling until 1.1195 level today. Conversely, a bullish breakout of the 1.1245 level can extend buying until 1.1289. The RSI and MACD are still in a bearish zone, while the 50 EMA also suggests selling bias. Therefore, we should look for selling trades below 1.1223levels.  

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.22980 after placing a high of 1.23893 and a low of 1.22513. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The Pound was already weak against the U.S. dollar, and the decline in Pound gained speed after the risk-off market sentiment gained traction and made the U.S. dollar stronger on Monday in the late trading session.

On Monday, face-to-face negotiations on the post-Brexit trade deal between the E.U. & U.K. began after both parties pledged to intensify talks. It would be the first time the U.K.’s chief negotiator David Frost will meet in person with his E.U. counterpart Michel Barnier since the talks began in March. Negotiations were continued through the pandemic but virtually not in person due to coronavirus pandemic.

Boris Johnson has said that a deal could be reached this month with new momentum. PM Johnson met E.U. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in a video conference this month and exclaimed that there were very good chances of getting a trade deal by Dec. The traders were cautious ahead of talks as to how they would go; so, British Pound came under pressure on Monday and dragged GBP/USD pair with itself.

Furthermore, Boris Johnson promised “an active approach to economy” while speaking at a school construction site. His comments came ahead of the launch of a task force to speed up the delivery of infrastructure projects. PM Boris Johnson said that “the cash is there” for long-term investment to help the U.K. recover from the coronavirus crisis and its impact on the economy. He announced that $1.23 B would be delivered to build the first 50 projects, including schools. The U.K. economy was contracted by 20.4% in April, the largest monthly fall on record due to the coronavirus crisis.

On the data front, The M4 Money Supply in May was released at 13:30 GMT, from the United Kingdom, which increased to 2.0% from the forecasted 1.6% and supported British Pound. The Mortgage Approvals from the U.K. in May were decreased to 9K against the forecasted 25K and weighed on British Pound. At 13:32 GMT, the Net Lending to Individuals for May decreased to -3.4B from the -4.0B and supported British Pound.

On the other hand, the Pending Home Sales from the United States for May came in as 44.3% against the expected 18.9%and supported the U.S. dollar. Better than expected data from the U.S. gave strength to the U.S. dollar, which added in the downward trend of GBP/USD on Monday.

The U.S. dollar was strong across the board due to its safe-haven status that was high due to the increased geopolitical tensions and intensified numbers of coronavirus cases around the world. Strong U.S. dollar weighed on GBP/USD pair on Monday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2381
  • R2 1.2367
  • R1 1.2354

Pivot Point 1.234

  • S1 1.2327
  • S2 1.2313
  • S3 1.23

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a bearish bias, primarily upon the release of worse than expected GDP figures. The cable is trading at 1.2275 level, and it’s finding immediate support at 1.2258 level. Closing of candles below 1.2258 level can open further room for selling until 1.2175 level while the resistance continues to hold at 1.2400 level. On the 4 hour chart, the GBP/USD has also formed a downward channel, which is extend selling bias, along with the 50 EMA, MACD, and RSI as all of the technical indicators are in support of selling. Let’s consider taking sell trades below 1.2345 level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.570 after placing a high of 107.882 and a low of 106.979. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY extended its gains and raised for the 4th consecutive day on Monday on the back of improving risk sentiment that made it difficult for safe-haven Japanese Yen to find demand.

On Monday, China said that it would impose visa restrictions on certain United States individuals in response to the same move by Washington on Chinese officials over the Hong Kong issue. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Zhao Lijian said that the visa restrictions would be imposed on confident Americans with egregious conduct relating to Hong Kong.

He added that national security law for Hong Kong was purely China’s internal affairs, and foreign countries had no right to interfere. He said that attempts from Washington to destruct China’s legislation for safeguarding national security in Hong Kong would never succeed. This increased the risk sentiment, and hence, the USD/JPY pair gained.

On the data front, the Retail Sales for the year from Japan was released at 4:50 GMT, which dropped by 12.3% against the forecasted decline by 11.6% and weighed on Japanese Yen that raised USD/JPY across the board. At 19:00 GMT, the Pending Home Sales from the United States on Monday for May increased to 44.3% against the forecasted 18.9% and supported the U.S. dollar, which helped USD/JPY to gain traction in the market. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index, which dropped to a daily low of 96.11, gained traction and reached 97.50 and helped the USD/JPY pair to surge further.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 107.39
  • R2 107.31
  • R1 107.27

Pivot Point 107.19

  • S1 107.14
  • S2 107.07
  • S3 107.02

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

Technically, the USD/JPY pair is trading with a bullish bias of around 107.660. On the three hourly charts, the USD/JPY is gaining bullish support by the regression channel. The upward channel has the potential to support the USD/JPY pair around 107.395 level. Closing of candles above this level can drive buying until 107.950, while below 107.390, the USD/JPY may drop until 106.835 level. The 50 EMA is supporting bullish bias; therefore, we should look for buying over 107.350 today. Good luck! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, June 26 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Potential Breakouts Everywhere!

The fundamental side is again muted with a limited number of economic events that don’t have the potential to drive major movement in the market today. Therefore, the focus will remain on the technical side of the market.

The fundamental side is again muted with a limited number of economic events that don’t have the potential to drive major movement in the market today. Therefore, the focus will remain on the technical side of the market.

The fundamental side is again muted with a limited number of economic events that don’t have the potential to drive major movement in the market today. Therefore, the focus will remain on the technical side of the market.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.12177 after placing a high of 1.12595 and a low of 1.11902. The EUR/USD pair posted losses on Thursday for the second consecutive day on the back of U.S. dollar strength amid risk-averse market sentiment. The worries over an increase in the number of coronavirus cases across the globe raised fears in the market. The number of death tolls in the U.S. topped to 120 thousand, and the number of rising cases reached 2.4M.

The S&P 500 declined to a 2-week lowest by 2.55% on Thursday. The U.S. Dollar Index rallied higher on the day but remained within a broader range near the starting point of the month. On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German GfK Consumer Climate for June supported Euro when it came in as -9.6 against the forecasted -11.7.

On Thursday, ECB released its last monetary policy meeting minutes, which revealed that ECB aimed to neutralize a German court ruling and to justify its bond purchasing scheme. ECB will also release confidential documents to curb the threat.

In May, Germany’s constitutional court threatened to block the central bank from participating in the stimulus plan unless ECB could prove that its government debt purchases exceeded the legal limits. German court provided a time period of 3 months to ECB to prove that. The critics argued that the bond purchases exceeded the ECB’s mandate, and the leading judge of the court said that ECB should not consider itself the ‘master of the universe.’

In monetary policy minutes, the ECB also underlined the delicate economic situation with millions of jobs at risk and inflation at weak levels. The forecast for Eurozone’s deep recession was also mentioned while stressing the efficiency of stimulus measures in helping to stimulate economic growth.

In short, the minutes send two messages: the ECB was ready to do more if needed, and the ECB efforts to end the conflicts with the German Constitutional court. Whereas, from the U.S., the Core durable goods orders for May increased by 4.0% against the forecasted 2.1% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Durable goods orders for May also increased by 15.8% against the expected 10.3% and supported the U.S. dollar, which weighed on EUR/USD pair on Thursday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1383
  • R2 1.1355
  • R1 1.1304

Pivot Point 1.1276

  • S1 1.1225
  • S2 1.1197
  • S3 1.1147

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading in a narrow range of 1.1243 – 1.1193 level, which limits the price action for now. On the lower side, the EUR/USD pair can drop towards 1.1145 level upon the bearish breakout of 1.1193 level, while the bullish breakout of 1.1243 level will allow us to go long. Simultaneously, the RSI and MACD are still in a bearish zone, while the 50 EMA also suggests selling bias. Therefore, we should look for selling trades below 1.1250 levels.  

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.24184 after placing a high of 1.24642 and a low of 1.23888. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair was flat throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair attempted to recover amid the hopes of Brexit breakthrough as the next round of face-to-face talks came. However, the fresh Brexit optimism was not expected to offset the disappointing U.S. coronavirus data giving strength to the greenback.

Britain’s chief negotiator David Frost warned Michel Barnier to ‘get real’ ahead of the face-to-face meeting in months. Both men will conduct an intensified round of talks at the Commission headquarters on Monday in a view to strike a breakthrough.

Frost said that he would go to Brussels in good faith to engage with the E.U.’s concerns, and this should be a real negotiation, and for that, E.U.’s unrealistic positions must have to change if they wanted the U.K. to move forward.

He added that U.K. sovereignty over its laws, its courts, and its fishing waters were not up for discussion. He also said that the U.K. did not seek anything that could undermine the E.U.’s single market. This raised the bars that the Brexit deal could be done when the face-to-face meeting will happen, but at the same time, the U.K.’s decision not to show any relaxation towards E.U.’s demands weighed on the positive expectations.

According to the European Social Survey (ESS), a pan-European poll carried out every two years, 56.8% of respondents in the U.K. showed a willingness to remain in Europe while 34.9% said that they would leave the bloc while 8.3% said that they would not vote at all. This survey also exerted pressure on GBP/USD on Thursday.

On the other hand, at the economic data front, the CBI Realized Sales from Great Britain remained flat with the expectations of -37 in June. While from the American side, the core durable goods order gave strength to the U.S. dollar when exceeded the expectations of 2.1% and came in as 4.0% and weighed on GBP/USD. The durable goods orders from the U.S. in May also exceeded 15.8% from the expected 10.3% and supported the U.S. dollar to weigh on GBP/USD pair. However, the Unemployment claims exceeded 1.480M from the expected 1.320M and weighed on the U.S. dollar, which supported the GBP/USD pair. Hence, the GBP/USD remained flat throughout the day.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2633
  • R2 1.2588
  • R1 1.2504

Pivot Point 1.2459

  • S1 1.2375
  • S2 1.233
  • S3 1.2245

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD extends trading with bearish momentum at 1.2406 level, having disrupted the 1.2460 support level. This mark is presently serving as resistance and can point the GBP/USD prices lower until 1.2380 level. On the downside, the Cable may find support around 1.2380 and 1.2336 levels. Acknowledging the fresh bearish crossover on the MACD and bearish bias extended by the RSI, the pair can show us a bearish trend. The 50 EMA is also proposing selling sentiment; hence, we should consider taking selling trades below 1.2459 level on Friday. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.050 after placing a high of 107.069 and a low of 106.382. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained bullish throughout the day. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield recently said that the number of actual confirmed cases is ten times bigger than reported cases. The Redfield indicated that approximately 92 to 95 % of the U.S. population is still in trouble by the fears of ever-increasing virus figures. There are 37,667 new cases with 692 deaths in America on June 25 as per the latest report, which initially weighs on the risk sentiment and contributed to the yellow-metal gains.

The risk-off market was further bolstered by the latest report that the United States recently announced to impose fresh sanctions on eight entities connected with Iran’s metal industry that supply revenue for the country’s Revolutionary Guard Corps. As per the U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweet, “Today, we are sanctioning nine entities for their connections to Iran’s metals sector. Iran’s leaders must stop squandering resources to support proxies abroad while Iranians suffer.” which adds strength to the risk-tone and weighs on the riskier assets.

It’s worth mentioning that the U.S. also imposed sanctions on a Chinese company known as the Global Industrial and Engineering Supply Ltd., for providing graphite — a vital material in Iran’s metal industry — to Tehran in 2019.

Moreover, the reason behind the risk-off market sentiment could also be associated with the report of a huge unconfirmed blast in Tehran and the trade wars between the U.S. and the rest of the major global economies. It should be noted that the police have started to look into an incident that happened over the last few hours in Tehran, where a bright light and loud sound in the eastern portion of Tehran were reported.

Besides the geopolitical tensions, the Federal Reserve recently banned 34 largest banks from share buybacks in the 3rd quarter (Q3). As well as, the Federal Reserve capped dividend payment to the second quarter (Q2) levels for these banks. While the U.S. central bank also released gloomy analyses, due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) economic impact, which exerted some downside press on the risk-tone. 

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 107.99
  • R2 107.54
  • R1 107.28

Pivot Point 106.83

  • S1 106.58
  • S2 106.12
  • S3 105.87

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is consolidating with bullish sentiment at 107.191 marks, but the closing of recent candles underneath 107.220 marks can encourage selling or retracement. Although the pair has violated the downward trendline resistance at 107 mark and technically, it should dispense selling the USD/JPY pair below 107.225. But we also require to recognize the double top resistance mark of 107.250. I will be glad to take a sell-trade if the USDJPY holds below 107.250 level to target 106.450 today. Good luck! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, June 25 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. GDP Under Spotlight!

As risk aversion emerged in the market, the U.S. dollar became strong, and equity prices in Wall Street started losing as the speed of the U.S. dollar rallied. On the news front, the eyes will be on the U.S. Final GDP, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Unemployment Claims figures due to come out during the New York Session. Overall the macroeconomic events are expected to be positive, and these may keep the U.S. dollar bullish today while keeping gold bearish.

As risk aversion emerged in the market, the U.S. dollar became strong, and equity prices in Wall Street started losing as the speed of the U.S. dollar rallied. On the news front, the eyes will be on the U.S. Final GDP, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Unemployment Claims figures due to come out during the New York Session. Overall the macroeconomic events are expected to be positive, and these may keep the U.S. dollar bullish today while keeping gold bearish.

As risk aversion emerged in the market, the U.S. dollar became strong, and equity prices in Wall Street started losing as the speed of the U.S. dollar rallied. On the news front, the eyes will be on the U.S. Final GDP, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Unemployment Claims figures due to come out during the New York Session. Overall the macroeconomic events are expected to be positive, and these may keep the U.S. dollar bullish today while keeping gold bearish.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.12499 after placing a high of 1.13257 and a low of 1.12481. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair in the risk-off market sentiment moved in a downward trend on Wednesday on the back of strong U.S. dollar and U.S. tariffs on E.U. & U.K.

On late Tuesday, a document from the United States Trade Representative office said that the U.S. was considering an additional list of products from France, Germany, Spain, and the U.K. to be placed with 100% duty. The products included olives, beer, chocolate, coffee, gin, some trucks, and machinery. The enforcement of the new tariffs will potentially take effect from July 26. The move was taken against the long-lasting dispute with E.U. over subsidies to large civil aircraft manufacturers.

In October, WTO ruled that Germany, France, Spain, and the U.K. granted illegal subsidies to plane-maker Airbus and allowed the U.S. to impose $7.5 billion in duties as part of the punishment. Furthermore, in December, WTO also said that the European Union did not end its illegal subsidies, which gave the U.S. further room to impose new tariffs on European products.

This weighed heavily on Euro and dragged the pair EUR/USD towards the negative side. EUR/USD pair was already under pressure due to risk-off market sentiment & U.S. dollar strength. However, the losses were limited as the better than expected macroeconomic data from Europe gave some strength to the Euro. At 13:00 GMT, the German Ifo Business Climate for June exceeded the expectations of 85.0 and came in as 86.2 and supported EUR/USD pair. On the other hand, the Belgian NBB Business Climate was expected as -25.1, which came in June as -22.9 and supported Euro.

As risk aversion emerged in the market, the U.S. dollar became strong, and equity prices in Wall Street started losing as the speed of the U.S. dollar rallied. The DXY was up 0.6 % and rose above 97.10 level on Wednesday. Dow Jones lost 2.40%, and Nasdaq lost 2.05%, the lower return in Wall Street Journal stocks was followed by the latest COVID-19 reports from the several U.S. States. The strength of the U.S. dollar remained a key driver for EUR/USD pair on Wednesday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1383
  • R2 1.1355
  • R1 1.1304

Pivot Point 1.1276

  • S1 1.1225
  • S2 1.1197
  • S3 1.1147

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair has violated the upward trendline support level of 1.1280, and now it’s finding support around 1.1240 level. The violation of the 1.1240 level can also extend sell-off until 1.1195. The MACD and RSI are holding in a selling zone, which is supporting the selling bias. On the lower side, recently, the formation of a bearish engulfing candle is also suggesting a strong selling bias. Today, we should look for taking a selling position below 1.1240 level to target 1.1195 level, but don’t forget to monitor the U.S. GDP, and Jobless claims data as these are the main ones to impact the market.   

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.24199 after placing a high of 1.25425 and a low of 1.24141. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The risk perceived, GBP/USD currency pair came under heavy pressure after the risk appetite from market faded h gave strength to the U.S. dollar. The GBP was one of the worst-performing currencies on Wednesday after AUD & NZD. Along with decreased risk appetite, Brexit uncertainties also weighed on British Pound. Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson also unveiled new easing measures across England from July 4. This indicted the reopening of pubs and restaurants and less social distancing.

On Brexit front, the E.U. chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, said that he was neither optimistic nor pessimistic about achieving a deal and also described himself as determined to break the deadlock. He also believed that the deal was still possible.

He showed concerns and said that a failure to reach a deal with the European Union would only damage the U.K.’s economy. He added that it was in particular interest of Britain to reach an agreement and avoid no-deal Brexit. He also added that the E.U. was willing to find a margin of flexibility on the sticking point of Britain’s fishing water, but he did not include the level playing field in this statement.

However, talks between E.U. & U.K. will start in the coming week, and the U.K. was an inch closer to the 1st July deadline for extending the transition period, which will end on December 31. On the data front, there was no macroeconomic data to be released from the U.K. so, the pair showed technical movement and followed the U.S. dollar on Wednesday. 

At 18:00 GMT, the House Price Index for April from the United States came in as 0.2% against the expected 0.3% and weighed on the U.S. dollar. But GBP/USD pair failed to give attention to the macroeconomic data from the U.S. and continued falling on the back of a key technical level, which was rejected.day.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2633
  • R2 1.2588
  • R1 1.2504

Pivot Point 1.2459

  • S1 1.2375
  • S2 1.233
  • S3 1.2245

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The Cable continues to trade with bearish momentum to trade at 1.2406 level, having violated the 1.2460 support level. This level is now working as resistance and can lead the GBP/USD prices until 1.2460 level. On the downside, the GBP/USD may gain support at 1.2380 level and 1.2336 level. Considering the recent bullish crossover on the MACD and bearish bias extended by the RSI, the pair is confusing traders about which way to move. The 50 periods EMA is still suggesting selling bias; therefore, we should consider taking selling trades below 1.2459 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.050 after placing a high of 107.069 and a low of 106.382. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair extended the rebound on Wednesday, which was started on Tuesday from the lowest level in seven weeks, near the 106.00 level. The surge in USD/JPY prices was due to the U.S. dollar’s strength across the board.

The Japanese Yen failed to benefit from the declines in the Wall Street Journal and lower U.S. yields. The Dow Jones fell almost 3% on the day, and the S&P 500 fell 2.70%. The U.S. Treasury yield of 10 Years fell to 0.679%. Usually, the risk-off market sentiment tends to give strength to Japanese Yen on Wednesday, the yen fell, and the U.S. dollar gained traction on the back of increasing concerns related to coronavirus contagion.

The President of Chicago Fed, Charles Evans, said on Wednesday that no one at the central bank was thinking about negative interest rates and if Fed moved there it would be a big surprise. He said that there was more space for monetary stimulus and expected the economy to rebound in the other half of the year.

On the other hand, The Bank of Japan offered 8.28 trillion yen (US$ 77.74billiom) in loans to financial organizations under a new lending program. The new fund was aimed at channeling funds to cash strapped firms hit by the coronavirus pandemic. BOJ also eased monetary policy in March & April by pledging to buy more assets, gobble up unlimited amounts of government’s debt and create lending facilities to channel more money to firms.

After BOJ decided to pay 0.1 % interest to financial institutions for taking up loans from the central bank, the number of participants surged to 180 from only 18 in March. The central bank announced that the three-month loans would be extended from Thursday through December 25. On the data front, the Services Producer Price Index (SPPI) from Japan for May came in line with the expectation. From the American side, the House Price Index for April came in as 0.2% against 0.3% expected and weighed on USD.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 107.99
  • R2 107.54
  • R1 107.28

Pivot Point 106.83

  • S1 106.58
  • S2 106.12
  • S3 105.87

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading with a bullish bias at 107.191 level, but the closing of recent candles below 107.220 level can drive selling or correction un the market. Although the pair has violated the downward trendline resistance at 107 level and technically, it should show us more buying in the USD/JPY pair. But we also need to consider the double top resistance level of 107.250. I will be happy to take a buy-trade if the USDJPY manages to break above 107.250 level to target 107.650 today. Good luck! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, June 24 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Focus on Technical Side!

On the news front, the market will be focusing on the German Business Climate figures along with Crude Oil Inventories. Overall the impact of these events is expected to be muted; therefore, our focus should be on the technical side of the market.

On the news front, the market will be focusing on the German Business Climate figures along with Crude Oil Inventories. Overall the impact of these events is expected to be muted; therefore, our focus should be on the technical side of the market.

On the news front, the market will be focusing on the German Business Climate figures along with Crude Oil Inventories. Overall the impact of these events is expected to be muted; therefore, our focus should be on the technical side of the market.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.13085 after placing a high of 1.13484 and a low of 1.12329. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair spiked above 1.13400 level, highest since June 16. The pair was up with 155 pips from the previous day’s low on the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six currencies, lost the gains of the previous five days in only two days and was down to 96.39 level, the lowest since June 11.

The U.S. dollar’s weakness came in after a new stimulus package from U.S. congress was announced by the U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin on Tuesday. Mnuchin also said that despite the rising number of coronavirus cases in some states of America, renewed lockdown would not be imposed.

Another reason behind the EUR/USD pair’s uptick was better than expected and robust macroeconomic data from the Eurozone about PMI.

 At 12:15 GMT, the French Flash Services PMI for June exceeded the expectations of 44.9 and came in as 50.3 and supported Euro. The French flash manufacturing PMI for June also surged to 52.1 against the expected 46.1 and supported Euro on Tuesday. At 12:30 GMT, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI increased to 44.6 from the forecasted 41.5 in June. The German Flash Services PMI exceeded expectations of 41.7 for June and came in as 45.8 and supported Euro.

At 13:00 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI for the whole Eurozone came in better than expected as 46.9 against 43.8. The Flash Services PMI for whole bloc also supported the Euro when it was reported as 47.3 against the forecast of 40.5 and supported single currency Euro. The PMI from the Manufacturing and Services sector boosted in Europe and provided strength to the single currency Euro, which added gains in the EUR/USD pair.

On the other hand, from the American side, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from the United States was released at 18:45 GMT, which showed that Manufacturing activity in the U.S. dropped in June, and index came in as 49.6 against the expected 50.0 and hence, weighed on U.S. dollar.

The weak U.S. dollar added further in the gains of EUR/USD on Tuesday and pushed the pair above the 1.3400 level.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1479
  • R2 1.1414
  • R1 1.1361

Pivot Point 1.1297

  • S1 1.1244
  • S2 1.118
  • S3 1.1127

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair is facing double top resistance at 1.1345 level, and below this, the EUR/USD has solid odds of staying bearish until 1.1266 level. Conversely, a bullish breakout of the 1.1345 level can extend buying until the next target level of 1.1415 level. While the bearish breakout of 1.12500 can lead EUR/USD prices towards 1.1230 and 1.1205. Besides, the leading indicators are mixed; for example, the RSI is suggesting a selling bias, while the MACD is indicating a bullish bias. Let us look for buying trades over the 1.1297 level today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.25209 after placing a high of 1.25317 and a low of 1.24317. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. GBP/USD pair rose above 1.2500 level and posted gains for 2nd consecutive day on Tuesday on the back of weak USD and strong British Pound after the release of PMI data. Another factor involved in the surge of GBP/USD pair was the plan set out by Britain on how it will regulate the city after Brexit.

On Tuesday, the finance minister of the U.K., Rishi Sunak, said that Britain’s government intends to regulate Europe’s biggest financial sector by making reforms to maintain the soundness of capital markets and managing future risks.

The U.K. left E.U. in January, and it will no longer be required to follow Europe’s financial rules after December when the transition period will end. Sunak said that Britain’s government would tailor the E.U. Capital rules for insurers known as Solvency II after Brexit. The U.K. lawmakers have long criticized the Solvency II rules as too inflexible, and the government intends to start to review it in autumn.

Besides tailoring the rules for the insurance sector, Britain will also make existing retail customer disclosure rules. Sunak showed concern and said that Britain would come under more pressure outside the E.U. to lee pots financial sector globally competitive. The EU is the biggest export customer of the U.K.’s financial services, and an enduring future relationship with the E.U. will help the U.K. maintain its role globally.

Furthermore, the negotiators of Britain and the E.U. have hit by a new obstacle to secure a trade deal after clashing over 70 billion euros worth of subsidies to E.U. farmers by Brussels. The E.U. negotiating team led by Michel Barnier was accused in the latest round of talks of trying to stop the U.K. government from defending British farmers from cut-price European imports.

On the data front, at 13:30 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from Great Britain for June came in as 50.1 against the expected 45.2 and supported British Pound. The Flash Services PMI for June from the U.K. also surged to 47.0 from the forecasted 39.1 and helped British Pound to gain traction.

The better than expected U.K. Preliminary Manufacturing & Services PMI data provided strength to British Pound on Tuesday, which lifted GBP/USD pair above 1.2500 level. On the other hand, from the U.S. Side, the Flash Manufacturing PMI for June was dropped to 49.6 from the expected 50.0 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The weak U.S. dollar added in the gains of GBP/USD on Tuesday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2378
  • R2 1.2369
  • R1 1.2357

Pivot Point 1.2348

  • S1 1.2337
  • S2 1.2327
  • S3 1.2316

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading bullish at a level of 1.2512, holding right above 50 periods of EMA, which is likely to extend support at a level of 1.2510. On the downside, the GBP/USD may find support around the value of around 1.2445, and the continuation of a selling trade can lead Sterling prices to be further lower until 1.2378 level. The MACD and RSI are expending a mixed bias, as the MACD is holding in a selling zone, while the RSI holds in a buy zone. The recent formation of neutral candles over 1.2510 support level is suggesting indecision among traders. Therefore, we should look for selling trades below 1.2470 and buying trades 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 106.534 after placing a high of 107.220 and a low of 106.071. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained bearish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair in early trading hours in Asian session surged above 107.200 level after White House advisor Peter Navarro clarified his statement that the phase one deal was over. Navarro issued a clarification stating that his comments had been taken widely out of context.

On Monday, Navarro said that the trade deal was over, and markets went on a roller coaster after this statement; however, right afterward, he issued a clarified statement which was then backed by the U.S. President himself. U.S. President also provided further assurance after his clarification that the phase-one deal was still intact to avoid any confusion.

U.S. dollar gained after that clarification but failed to post gains in the European session after the strong PMI data from Europe, which made the U.S. dollar weak. U.S. dollar came under pressure, and the pair USD/JPY starting to move in a downward trend. The U.S. Dollar Index was down 0.45% near 96.56 level on Tuesday, which exerted more pressure on the U.S. dollar. Greenback seemed to face high selling pressure after the release of U.S. economic data.

At 5:30 GMT, the Flash Manufacturing PMI from Japan for June dropped to 37.8 against the forecasted 39.5 and weighed on Japanese Yen. However, at 10:00 GMT, the Bank of Japan Core CPI for the year came in as 0.0% against the expected -0.1% and supported the Japanese Yen.

On the U.S. side, at 18:45 GMT, the Flash manufacturing PMI for June came in as 49.6 against the expected 50.0 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Flash Services PMI came in line with the expectations of 46.7.

At 18:59 GMT, the Richmond Manufacturing Index for June was up to 0 from expectations of -3 and supported the U.S. dollar. At 19:00 GMT, the New Home Sales in May were recorded as 676K against the expected 637K and supported the U.S. dollar.

The poor than expected PMI data, even after the reopening of economies from all states of America, gave a high selling pressure on the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. dollar’s selling bias was further supported by the latest comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, who said on Tuesday that U.S. Congress would issue more stimulus in July to overcome the pandemic crisis. This depicted the U.S. economy’s weakness, and hence, the U.S. dollar suffered and dragged the USD/JPY pair with itself below 106.100 level on Tuesday.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 107.13
  • R2 107.05
  • R1 106.94

Pivot Point 106.85

  • S1 106.74
  • S2 106.65
  • S3 106.54

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY traded bearishly to break out of the descending triangle pattern, supporting the pair around 106.800 level. On the lower side, the support level can be seen at 106.400, and violation of this could trigger sell-off until 106 level. The breach of the descending triangle pattern suggests selling bias, but before this, we can expect upward movement in the market until 106.800. Let’s consider taking sell trades below 106.800 level today. 

Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/USD Bullish Bias Continues – Upward Trendline Support!

The EUR/USD currency pair extended its previous day winning streak and took bids around the 1.1311 level, mainly due to the fresh risk-on market sentiment, which undermined the broad-based US dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. The reason for the upticks in the currency pair could also be attributed to the report that the Spanish government officials are considering pledging as much as EUR50 billion in additional loan guarantee, which underpinned the shared currency and provided support to the major. 

The EUR/USD currency pair extended its previous day winning streak and took bids around the 1.1311 level, mainly due to the fresh risk-on market sentiment, which undermined the broad-based US dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. The reason for the upticks in the currency pair could also be attributed to the report that the Spanish government officials are considering pledging as much as EUR50 billion in additional loan guarantee, which underpinned the shared currency and provided support to the major. 

The EUR/USD currency pair extended its previous day winning streak and took bids around the 1.1311 level, mainly due to the fresh risk-on market sentiment, which undermined the broad-based US dollar and contributed to the currency pair gains. The reason for the upticks in the currency pair could also be attributed to the report that the Spanish government officials are considering pledging as much as EUR50 billion in additional loan guarantee, which underpinned the shared currency and provided support to the major. 

Introducing Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), this data released by the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing industry controls a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is considered as an essential indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the Euro Zone. Usually, a result above 50 signals is seen as bullish for the shared currency. Likewise, a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

As per the current condition, the Eurozone PMIs came out to be robust as easier lockdown restrictions bolstering business activity. Moving on, the big beat on expectations could boost the gains in the shared currency. From the technical perspective, the falling wedge breakout seen on the pair’s hourly chart suggests a rise above the psychological resistance of 1.13. 

At the coronavirus front, the number of reported coronavirus cases increased to 190,862, with a total of 8,895 deaths. As well as, the cases increased by 503 in Germany on Tuesday against Monday’s +537. On Tuesday, the death count rose by ten as per the German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI).

At the USD front, the broad-based US dollar failed to maintain its early day bullish moves and edged lower at least for now, mainly due to the fresh risk-on wave in the market sentiment after Navarro clarified that his comments were taken wrongly by the market and the phase-one pact was on track which gave a boost to the risk market and contributed to the greenback’s decline. However, the reductions in the US dollar kept the currency higher. Whereas, the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was largely flat at 96.993, having climbed as high as 97.207 earlier in the session. 

The market traders will keep their eyes on the flash manufacturing PMI for Germany, which is scheduled to be released at 0730 GM. The USD price dynamics will also be essential to watch for some short-term trading impetus ahead.


On the technical side, the EUR/USD is trading sharply bullish in our favor as our forex signal makes around 30 pips. The idea is to move SL at the breakeven level and enjoy the bullish run, but I suspect the EUR/USD will take a bearish recovery below 1.1345 level. Here’s a quick update on the trade signal. 

Entry Price – Buy 1.12914    

Stop Loss – 1.12514    

Take Profit – 1.13314

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400 / +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$400/ +$40

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, June 18 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – BOE Rate Decision In Focus!

Let’s keep an eye on the U.K. Monitory Policy meeting, especially on the MPC members voting for the Asset Purchase facility. Overall, the bank isn’t expected to change it’s interest rate today. Besides, the U.S. Jobless Claims and Manufacturing Index will remain in focus.

Let’s keep an eye on the U.K. Monitory Policy meeting, especially on the MPC members voting for the Asset Purchase facility. Overall, the bank isn’t expected to change it’s interest rate today. Besides, the U.S. Jobless Claims and Manufacturing Index will remain in focus.

Let’s keep an eye on the U.K. Monitory Policy meeting, especially on the MPC members voting for the Asset Purchase facility. Overall, the bank isn’t expected to change it’s interest rate today. Besides, the U.S. Jobless Claims and Manufacturing Index will remain in focus.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD prices were closed at 1.12425 after placing a high of 1.12938 and a low of 1.12068. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair extended its losses for the second consecutive day on Wednesday on the back of the risk-off market sentiment.

The escalating geopolitical tensions in the disputed border between India & China and North Korea and South Kore weighed on the risk-on market sentiment on Wednesday. The risk-off market sentiment was then bolstered by the fears of a fresh second wave of coronavirus after an increased number of infection cases from Beijing and some states of the United States.

To stop the virus from further spread and second wave to emerge, China ordered to impose strict restrictions in 29 communities of Beijing on Wednesday, and hence, risk sentiment dropped. Riskier currency Euro suffered and moved in a downward direction.

Meanwhile, the European Commission presented a “European Strategy” to accelerate the development, manufacturing, and deployment of vaccines against COVID-19. According to the European Commission, the pandemic’s permanent solution was an effective and safe vaccine development.

The announced European Strategy proposed a joint E.U. approach and was built on the mandate received from E.U. health ministers. The latest strategy gave some support to the falling Euro currency and kept a lid on any additional losses.

On the other hand, the chief of Eurogroup meeting, Mario Centeno on Wednesday, said that his decision to step down from his post had no specific political reason but was simply the end of the cycle. He claimed that his tenure was due to the period, and he just did not apply for a second chance. E.U. leaders are due to meet later this week to discuss the trillion-euro fund that will finance the European coronavirus recovery plan.

On the data front, the Consumer price index (CPI) for the year remained in line with the expectations of 0.1%, and the Final Core CPI from the Eurozone also came as expected 0.9% and had a null effect on Euro currency.

On the U.S. front, the Building permits remained flat with the expectations of 1.22M however, the Housing Starts in May were recorded as 0.97 M against the expected 1.1M and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

In his second testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, he stressed that Fed would use all of its tools to curb the damage caused by coronavirus pandemic. He also showed that no hike in interest rate was any near in the future. This decision helped the U.S. dollar to find demand in the market, and hence, the EUR/USD pair suffered more on the day.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1462
  • R2 1.1408
  • R1 1.1336

Pivot Point 1.1282

  • S1 1.1211
  • S2 1.1156
  • S3 1.1085

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair is testing the double bottom support level at 1.1210 level in the 4-hour timeframe, and now it’s bouncing off towards 1.12730 level. Continuation of a bullish trend can extend bullish bias until the next resistance level of 1.1340. Elsewhere, a bearish breakout of 1.1210 can trigger selling until 1.1170. Let’s look for selling below 1.1298 and buying above the same level today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at1.25548 after placing a high of 1.25885 and a low of 1.25106. Overall the movement of GBP/USD remained bearish throughout the day. The pair GBP/USD posted losses for the second consecutive day on Wednesday amid the sudden pick up in the U.S. dollar demand.

The greenback’s relative safe-haven status was continuously benefitted by the growing fears of the second wave of coronavirus and geopolitical tensions in Asia. However, the bearish trend for the GBP/USD pair remained under stress due to the latest optimism related to the Brexit progress.

The market expectations of no-deal Brexit have faded away after the U.K. & E.U. agreed to intensify post –Brexit talks. Besides, UK PM Boris Johnson said that the end of July could reach an outline of a deal. This helped to limit the additional losses in the GBP/USD pair.

Investors are keenly awaiting the update from Bank of England, which will hold its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Although the moves from BoE in upcoming monetary policy meeting are highly anticipated, market participants still await the monetary policy update.

On the data front, the CPI from the U.K. at 11:00 GMT was released, which showed that during May, CPI remained as expected to be 0.5%. The Core CPI from the U.K. dropped to 1.2% from the expected 1.3% and weighed n GBP.

The P.I. Input for May also dropped to 0.3% against the expected 4.1% and weighed on British Pound. The PPI Output for May reached -0.3% from the anticipated 0.0% and weighed on British Pound. At 11:02 GMT, the RPI for the year in May decreased to 1.0%from the forecasted 1.2% and weighed on GBP. Poor than expected economic data dragged the pair near 1.2500 level on Wednesday. In the meantime, risk-off market sentiment also weighed on GBP/USD risky currency pair.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2794
  • R2 1.2741
  • R1 1.2659

Pivot Point 1.2606

  • S1 1.2524
  • S2 1.2471
  • S3 1.2388

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Thursday, the GBP/USD is trading at a level of 1.2580, holding right above a next support level of 1.2550. Continuation of a bullish trend requires the cable to break above 1.2585 level first. The 50 periods EMA is weighting on Sterlin gat 1.2585 level while the RSI and MACD are holding in the bearish zone. Although they are very close to crossover into the bullish zone, so we should wait for a bullish breakout before taking a buy trades. By the way, a bullish breakout of 1.2585 level can extend to buying until the next target level of the level of 1.2685, while bearish breakout of 1.2545 level can lead Sterling to be lower towards 1.2475. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.004 after placing a high of 107.439 and a low of 106.950. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bearish throughout the day. After moving in a consolidation phase for the previous two days, the USD/JPY pair finally found a trend to follow on Wednesday and dropped below 107.06 level. The bearish trend of USD/JPY was because of the risk-off market sentiment.

At 4:50 GMT, the Trade Balance of Japan for May showed a deficit of 0.6T against the expected 0.68T and supported the Japanese Yen. The strength of the Japanese Yen dragged the pair USD/JPY lower on Wednesday.

The downward trend was then supported by the U.S. economic docket, which released negative or flat results. At 17:30 GMT, the Building permits for May from the U.S. came flat with the expectations of 1.22M. The Housing Starts in May dropped to 0.97Mfrom the expected 1.10M and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

The decreased housing starts weighed on the U.S. dollar and dragged the USD/JPY prices further. In his second round of testimony to Congress, the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, told the lawmakers that the U.S. economy was beginning to recover from the worst of coronavirus crisis. He added that to provide support to 25M jobless Americans with ongoing pandemic will need more help.

He said that with interest rates remain near zero for an extended period, the U.S. central bank would have to continue to buy bonds to make the longer-term borrowing cost lower. Powell also said for Congress to extend in some form the extra $600 weekly payments to the unemployed people that were the part of the relief package which was passed in March and will expire in July.

Congress has already allocated 3T USD for coronavirus related economic aid, and the U.S. central bank has also pumped trillions of dollars of credit into the economy to support the economy through the pandemic crisis.

On the other hand, the rising geopolitical tensions in Asia between India and China over their disputed border. The site left 20 Indian soldiers dead in a fistfight and an unspecific number of Chinese casualties.

Meanwhile, the tensions between North Kore and South Korea also escalated after North Korea blew up the de facto embassy of South Korea near both nation’s highly armed border on Tuesday and threatened to send troops. These geopolitical tensions faded away from the market’s risk sentiment, which weighed on USD/JPY, and the pair posted losses on Wednesday.

The risk-off market sentiment was further bolstered by the recent lockdown measures imposed in 29 communities of Beijing to control the increasing number of virus cases. Meanwhile, the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell presented a gloomy outlook for a road to recovery of the U.S. economy and faded away from the optimism of V-shaped global economic recovery, which also weighed on USD/JPY pair.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108
  • R2 107.82
  • R1 107.57

Pivot Point 107.39

  • S1 107.14
  • S2 106.96
  • S3 106.71

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair is trading at 106.914 level as it continues trading sideways in a wide trading range of 107.620 – 106.630. It failed to break above an immediate resistance level of 107.580. This level is working as resistance for USD/JPY, and the 50 periods EMA is also prolonging strong resistance at 107.580 zones while immediate support lingers nearby 106.600. The USDJPY bearish trend can trigger a sell-off unto the next support level of the 106.017 level today. Let’s wait for the USD/JPY to test the 107.650 level before entering a sell in the USD/JPY. 

Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Signals

EUR/USD Breaks Above Downward Channel – Who’s Up for Buy Signal? 

During the European session, the EUR/USD pair flashed red and dropped to 1.1230 before bouncing off towards the 1.1270 level. The broad-based U.S. dollar just started to erase its early-day losses and gained some bullish traction due to the risk-off market sentiment, which also exerted some downside pressure on the currency pair. 

During the European session, the EUR/USD pair flashed red and dropped to 1.1230 before bouncing off towards the 1.1270 level. The broad-based U.S. dollar just started to erase its early-day losses and gained some bullish traction due to the risk-off market sentiment, which also exerted some downside pressure on the currency pair. 

During the European session, the EUR/USD pair flashed red and dropped to 1.1230 before bouncing off towards the 1.1270 level. The broad-based U.S. dollar just started to erase its early-day losses and gained some bullish traction due to the risk-off market sentiment, which also exerted some downside pressure on the currency pair. 

The Tokyo reported numbers of COVID-19 cases rose by 47, the highest level since May 05. In the meantime, the Dragon Nation has closed markets once again due to the increase in the virus cases around the Xinfadi food market in the Southern Fengtai district. Almost 20 above U.S. states reported a rise in new cases, which eventually exerted downside pressure on the risk sentiment.

The reason for the risk-off market sentiment could also be attributed to the possibility of renewed lockdowns to curb the spread, which eventually undermined the prospects for a sharp V-shaped economic recovery. The risk-off market sentiment finally pushed the U.S. dollar higher, at least for now, and became a key factor that kept the lid on any gains in EUR/USD pair. 

The trader did not give any significant attention to the report that the Eurozone’s economic powerhouse expected to see its contribution to the European Union’s (E.U.) budget rise by 42%, or EUR13 billion (11.7 billion pounds) annually, over the coming years as per Reuters.

It’s worth recalling that currency pair dropped by 0.64% on Thursday, mainly after the Fed-induced reality check undermined hopes of a V-shaped economic recovery and weighed heavily on the global stock markets, which means it’s probably a time traders may start doing profit-taking in the pair. 


Technically, the EUR/USD pair is trading in the oversold zone, which is one of the strongest reasons investors have to trigger profit-taking in their sell trades and enter a buy trade. The EUR/USD pair has violated the downward channel at 1.1270 level and, at the same time, forming a bullish engulfing candle on the 4-hour timeframe. The leading indicator MACD is also showing a bullish crossover, which suggests more buying in the pair. Let’s consider taking a buy trade as per the below trade plan.

Entry Price – Buy 1.12783    

Stop Loss – 1.12383    

Take Profit – 1.13183    

Risk to Reward – 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = -$400/ +$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = -$40/ +$40

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, June 12 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Ahead! 

On the news front, eyes will remain on the UK GDP figures, which are expected to perform worse than the previous month’s data. Alongside the U.S. Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment figures will be in play to drive price action in gold and dollar related pairs today.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the UK GDP figures, which are expected to perform worse than the previous month’s data. Alongside the U.S. Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment figures will be in play to drive price action in gold and dollar related pairs today.

On the news front, eyes will remain on the UK GDP figures, which are expected to perform worse than the previous month’s data. Alongside the U.S. Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment figures will be in play to drive price action in gold and dollar related pairs today.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.12974 after placing a high of 1.14035 and a low of 1.12886. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair gained traction in the early session and rose to a daily high of 1.1403 on Thursday. However, the pair EUR/USD lost its traction on the back of the risk-averse market sentiment, which boosted the demand for safe-haven U.S. dollar.

In the early trading session, the EUR/USD pair followed its previous day’s movement and rose above 1.140 level but failed to remain there in the wake of a strong U.S. dollar against Euro. Dollar Index (DXY) stayed relatively calm near 96.00 level in the first half of the day.

After the release of economic data from both sides, the EUR/USD pair started to lose its daily gains and turned the gains into losses.

On the data front, at 10:30 GMT, the French Final Private Payrolls for the quarter came in as -2.5% against the forecasted -2.3%and weighed on Euro. At 13:00 GMT, the Italian Industrial Production in April was dropped by 19.1% against the expected fall of 24.0%.

At 17:30 GMT, the Core PPI from the U.S. for May came as -0.1% the same as expected and PPI as 0.4% against the expectations of 0.1% and supported the U.S. dollar. The jobless claims for the week also dropped to 1.542M against forecasted 1.550M and supported the U.S. dollar.

Furthermore, the Eurogroup meeting was held on Thursday to discuss the distribution of 750 billion euros to member states to deal with the economic shock from the crisis. Five hundred billion euros were planned to disburse as grants and 250 billion as loans.

 Meanwhile, the finance minister of the Eurozone approved the distribution of 748 million to Greece from profits of European Central Bank that purchased Greek sovereign bonds.

Moreover, the 19 finance ministers of the euro area were looking for a new president and at the time when the region was facing tough negotiations over 750 billion euros fiscal plans to help it recover from the coronavirus.

The Eurogroup current president, Mario Centeno, resigned from the Portuguese government served as a finance minister since October 2015. However, the three names for potential candidates are Spain’s finance minister Nadia Calvino, Luxembourg’s finance Chief Pierre Gramegna and from Ireland, Paschal Donohoe.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1522
  • R2 1.1473
  • R1 1.1422

Pivot Point 1.1372

  • S1 1.1321
  • S2 1.1271
  • S3 1.122

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1296 level, having entered into the oversold zone. Today, we can expect bullish correction until 1.1309 and 1.1340 levels, which mark 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels. Below these levels, the EUR/USD pair can show selling bias again as the 50 EMA can pressure the pair for selling.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.26016 after placing a high of 1.27541 and a low of 1.25863. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair dropped on Thursday after posting gains for ten previous days on the back of strong intraday U.S. dollar buying, which dragged the pair further below towards 1.2500 level.

The risk-off market sentiment emerged after the comments of Federal Reserve on Thursday and the news that some American states were showing some signs of coronavirus cases again.

The Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the U.S. economy was set to contract by 6.5% this year, and the unemployment rate was expected to reach 9.3%. The U.K. will release its latest GDP growth figures on Friday, which was previously estimated to show a contraction in April by 18%, followed by a 5.8% decline in March.

On Brexit front, the negotiations between the U.K. & E.U. will now intensify with weekly talks throughout July into August and in the hope of a breakthrough. The U.K. is facing a very difficult time from relatively increased COVID-19 cases and negotiations at that time are weighing even more on British Pound. The hopes of any breakthrough for post Brexit deal rely on the talks between UK PM Boris Johnson and E.C. President von der Leyden, which will hold after the E.U. Summit.

Meanwhile, some fresh bearish pressure for GBP/USD came after the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development warned that U.K.’s economy was set to be the hardest hit amongst the world’s developed countries from coronavirus pandemic.

At the data front, the RICS House Price Balance for May from the U.K. was released at 4:01 GMT, which showed a decline of 32% against the expected decline by 24% and weighed on British Pound and dragged the GBP/USD pair.

From the American side, the Unemployment Claims for last week were reported as 1.542M against the expected 1.550M and supported the U.S. dollar, which ultimately dragged the pair GBP/USD further toward downside on Thursday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2912
  • R2 1.2863
  • R1 1.2804

Pivot Point 1.2755

  • S1 1.2696
  • S2 1.2647
  • S3 1.2588

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair is trading with a bearish bias at 1.2570 level ever since it has violated an upward trendline support level of 1.2650. On the 4 hour timeframe, the Cable has entered the oversold zone as we can see the RSI and MACD both were holding below 20 and below 0 levels, respectively. On the lower side, the Cable may find initial support at a level of 1.2550, and below this, the next support may be found around 1.2503 level today while the bullish breakout of 38.2% Fibonacci resistance level can lead the GBP/USD pair towards 1.2650 level, which marks 61.8% Fibo level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

 The USD/JPY was closed at 106.859 after placing a high of 107.232 and a low of 106.569. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bearish throughout the day. The USD/JPY currency pair dropped for the 4th consecutive day on Thursday despite strong demand for the U.S. dollar due to the risk-off market sentiment after the Fed’s gloomy outlook on the U.S. economy presented in its latest monetary policy meeting.

The increasing fears of a second wave of coronavirus after the increased number of appearing cases of infected people due to easing of lockdown restrictions added in the risk-off market sentiment and currency pair’s declines on Thursday.

FOMC turned down the odds of negative interest rates and held its rates near zero at 0-0.25% on Wednesday but suggested that the recovery road would be longer for the U.S. economy as the impact of coronavirus crisis was deeper than expectations. Fed said that it would use all its tools to overcome the damage caused by a coronavirus.

The risk-off market sentiment caused the USD/JPY pair to move in a downward direction on Thursday towards the lowest level of 106.569.

On the data front, at 4:50 GMT, the BSI Manufacturing Index dropped by 52.3 against the forecasted decline by 20.5 and weighed on Japanese Yen. At 17:30 GMT, the Core PPI for May came in line with the expectations of -0.1%. The PPI for May increased to 0.4% from the expected 0.1% and supported the U.S. dollar. The Unemployment Claims from last week were reported 1.542M against the expected 1.550M and gave strength to the U.S. dollar. Despite the strength of the U.S. dollar, the USD/JPY pair moved in a downward direction and posted losses for 4th consecutive day on Thursday.

Furthermore, Moderna told Bloomberg on Thursday that the final-stage trial of its vaccine for COVID-19 will start July. Moderna was the first company to start human clinical trials of its vaccine in the U.S.

The last stage of the trial will be completed with the partnership of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). The study will include 30,000 people and will provide definite clinical proof that vaccines actually prevent people from developing COVID-19.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108.58
  • R2 108.23
  • R1 107.67

Pivot Point 107.33

  • S1 106.77
  • S2 106.43
  • S3 105.87

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair fell sharply after violating the upward channel, which supported the pair around 107.500. For now, this level is working as resistance for USD/JPY. The 50 periods EMA is also extending strong resistance at 107.650 area while immediate support stays around 106.600. The bearish trend in the USD/JPY pair can trigger a sell-off until the next support level of the 106.017 level today. Let’s wait for the market to test the 107.650 level before entering a sell in the USD/JPY today. 

Good luck! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, June 3 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for Advance NFP Figures! 

On Wednesday, the market is likely to exhibit sharp price actions in the wake of series of high impact economic events such as Final Services PMI, G7 Meeting, ADP Non-farm payroll, and Canadian monetary policy meetings. Most of the price action is expected to be driven by Advance Non-farm payroll figures, which are expected to perform slightly better than the previous month. It can drive buying in the U.S. dollar.

On Wednesday, the market is likely to exhibit sharp price actions in the wake of series of high impact economic events such as Final Services PMI, G7 Meeting, ADP Non-farm payroll, and Canadian monetary policy meetings. Most of the price action is expected to be driven by Advance Non-farm payroll figures, which are expected to perform slightly better than the previous month. It can drive buying in the U.S. dollar.

On Wednesday, the market is likely to exhibit sharp price actions in the wake of series of high impact economic events such as Final Services PMI, G7 Meeting, ADP Non-farm payroll, and Canadian monetary policy meetings. Most of the price action is expected to be driven by Advance Non-farm payroll figures, which are expected to perform slightly better than the previous month. It can drive buying in the U.S. dollar.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.11687 after placing a high of 1.11958 and a low of 1.11149. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair extended its bullish rally for the 7th straight day on Tuesday due to risk-on market sentiment and made the risk-sensitive Euro to outperform the U.S. dollar. The pair rose to its highest since mid-march near 1.1196.

At 11:45 GMT, the Budget Balance from the French government was issued, which showed a deficit of 92.1B. AT 12:00 GMT, the Spanish Unemployment Change was decreased to 26.6K from the expected 230.3K and supported Euro, which ultimately raised EUR/USD prices on Tuesday.

The U.S. dollar weakened against its rivals, and the U.S. Dollar Index dropped to its lowest level in12 weeks at 97.43. The weakened U.S. dollar also gave support to EUR/USD gains on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, for Euro traders, the unemployment data will be looked upon for fresh impetus. While on Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce its monetary policy decision, which will be under close watch by the investors. 

It is widely expected that ECB would extend the PEPP program to a total of 1 Trillion euros. If that happens, it would further add in the EUR/USD gains. Furthermore, on Tuesday, the European Commission started a process that could lead to reforms of drug manufacturing pharmaceuticals to limit shortages of vaccines and antibiotics and the availability of medicine more easily.

The move came in after the E.U. faced many difficulties in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic related to the healthcare shortcomings due to dependency of the bloc on foreign supplies of essential drugs and chemicals from India and China.

According to the European Commission, there was a need to build a holistic patient-centered pharmaceutical Strategy that could cover the whole life cycle of pharmaceutical products i,e from its scientific discovery to authorization and patients access.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.129
  • R2 1.1243
  • R1 1.1208

Pivot Point 1.1161

  • S1 1.1125
  • S2 1.1079
  • S3 1.1043

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The bullish bias of the EUR/USD pair continues to drive an upward trend in the market, as it leads to EUR/USD prices to 1.1204. The pair is likely to find immediate support around 1.1150 level, while resistance holds around 1.1236 level. The overall trend is bullish, but we can expect a slight retracement until 1.1180 level before seeing additional buying.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD was closed at 1.25514 after placing a high of 1.25758 and a low of 1.24782. Overall the movement of GBP/USD remained bullish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair continued its bullish track and rose for the 4th consecutive day on Tuesday and crossed a level of 1.25700 on the back of broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. Another factor in the upward rally of GBP/USD, along with the U.S. dollar weakness, was Pound’s strength due to renewed optimism in Brexit developments.

According to Brussels sources reported in The Times, U.K. was expected to signal compromises on fisheries and some trade rules if the E.U. agreed to back down from its demand for regulatory alignment and fishing access.

After this statement came into the market, the demand for British Pound increased, which raised the bars for GBP/USD pair across the board. However, the rally was on its way to posting remarkable gains but was dragged down after U.K.’s Prime Minister dismissed the report for compromising on key sticking points that have paused the progress in the post-Brexit deal.

The U.K. rather expressed its desire to take control over access to its waters and fish after the transition period ends. U.K. showed disagreement to stick with the E.U.’s Common Fisheries Policy in which fishing quotas for E.U. member states are fixed.

The official spokesman of Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the reports suggesting that the U.K. was ready to compromise on fishing and its waters were only “wishful thinking by E.U.” The remarks added to the growing concerns over the lack of progress on negotiations. The final round of detailed negotiations took effect from today, and results will be under close observation by British Pound traders. It should be noted that if both parties failed to secure a deal or agree on a point, it would demand an extension in the transition period. But Johnson has promised not to extend this period, which will lead to no-deal Brexit.

Boris Johnson has suggested the country would accept a no-deal Brexit if London and Brussels failed to agree on new trade rules by December 31.

On the economic data front, at 11; 00 GMT, the Nationwide HPI dropped to -1.7% against the expected drop by-1.0%. 

At 13:30 GMT, the Mortgage Approvals from the U.K. came in as 16K against the expected 34K and weighed on Pound. The Net Lending to Individuals came in negative as -6.9B against the expected 1.7B. A sharp fall in U.K. Mortgage approvals in April and House price suffering kept a lid on additional gains of GBP/USD.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2691
  • R2 1.2634
  • R1 1.2592

Pivot Point 1.2535

  • S1 1.2493
  • S2 1.2436
  • S3 1.2395

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD continues trading bullish as it has violated the double top resistance area around 1.2545 level, and now it’s testing the upward channel, which extends resistance around 1.2603. Bullish crossover of 1.2603 level is now likely to extend the buying trend until 1.2690. While the support level stays at 1.2550 today. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA is suggesting bullish bias, and now the MACD is suggesting buying trend in the GBP/USD pair as the histograms are forming above zero levels. Consider taking buying trades over 1.2605 and selling below the same level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 108.675 after placing a high of 108.770 and a low of 107.512. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained bullish throughout the day. The pair USD/JPY moved beyond 108.00 level and extended its gains to the fresh seven weeks high of 108.77. The increased risk appetite caused the upbeat movement of USD/JPY after the easing of lockdown measures from across the globe, which raised optimism about the quick economic recovery.

Despite the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, the pair USD/JPY took its pace on the upside due to underpinned demand for safe-haven Japanese Yen in the risk-on market sentiment. On the other hand, the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six currencies, fell 0.30% around 97.5 level on Tuesday.

President Donald Trump vowed to use military action against the increasing protests near the White House, which raised fears for even more disruptive economy of the United States. The protests were against the killing of an unarmed black man George Floyd in police custody two weeks ago. Other than that, China halted the purchases of U.S. Soybeans and pork on Tuesday against U.S. decision to revoke the special status of Hong Kong, which increased the ongoing tensions between the world’s two largest economies. China’s move could also lead towards the cancellation of phase one trade deal, which both parties signed in January.

On the data front, there was no economic report released by the United States on Tuesday, which left the pair at the mercy of market risk sentiment, which eventually drove the pair to 7 weeks’ highest level.

However, on Japan front, at 4:50 GMT, the Monetary Base for the year from Japan was increased to 3.9% from the forecasted 2.6% and supported the Japanese Yen. Traders will be waiting for the U.S. response against the move by China to halting the purchases of U.S. agricultural goods.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108.33
  • R2 108.1
  • R1 107.84

Pivot Point 107.61

  • S1 107.36
  • S2 107.12
  • S3 106.87

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY bullish bias violated the series of resistance levels to lead the USD/JPY currency pair towards 108.770 level. The closings of bullish engulfing and three white soldiers candlestick patterns are likely to drive further buying until 109.125 level today. On the 4 hour timeframe, the USD/JPY pair has crossed over 50 EMA and has closed a few candles above resistance become support area of 108.350, which is supporting bullish bias among traders. The USD/JPY pair may find support at 108.350 and resistance at 109.125 level while the breakout of this range will determine the next trend in the pair. Today let’s consider buying over 108.35. All the best for today! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, June 2 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Risk Sentiment Remains Mixed!

The U.S. dollar after this lost demand in the market and Wall Street’s main indexes started to move in positive territory. The U.S. Dollar Index dropped below 98, which further pushed the rising prices of EUR/USD pair on Monday.

The U.S. dollar after this lost demand in the market and Wall Street’s main indexes started to move in positive territory. The U.S. Dollar Index dropped below 98, which further pushed the rising prices of EUR/USD pair on Monday.

The U.S. dollar after this lost demand in the market and Wall Street’s main indexes started to move in positive territory. The U.S. Dollar Index dropped below 98, which further pushed the rising prices of EUR/USD pair on Monday.

On the news side, the economic calendar isn’t likely to have any high impact on economic events. Therefore, the market will wait for ADP figures tomorrow and NFP figures by the end of the week.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.11337 after placing a high of 1.11539 and a low of 1.11003. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. On Monday, the EUR/USD pair rose for the 6th consecutive day, extended its previous day gains, and moved above 1.11500 level, which was highest since March 17.

Most major European markets were closed due to Whit Monday, which limited the trading activity for a large part of the day. Data from the United States showed that ISM Manufacturing PMI in May came in worse than expectations and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The ISM Manufacturing PMI was expected to rise by 43.6pints, but instead, it came as 43.1.

The U.S. dollar after this lost demand in the market and Wall Street’s main indexes started to move in positive territory. The U.S. Dollar Index dropped below 98, which further pushed the rising prices of EUR/USD pair on Monday.

The European Commission has approved Latvia’s support program to support tourism operators worth 800,000 euros. The tourism operators cover travelers’ repatriation costs in the context of the coronavirus outbreak. The Latvia support program was approved on March 19 and was amended on April 3 and May 8.

Furthermore, the European Commission also launched a dialogue initiative with the financial sector. The first roundtable meeting between the European Commission and the European financial sector, including business and consumer representatives, has launched. This meeting was conducted to find out the best practices to support E.U. citizens & businesses.

At the data front, at 12:15 GMT, the Spanish Manufacturing PMI came in line with the expectations of 38.3. The Italian Manufacturing PMI at 12:45 GMT exceeded the expectations of 35.5 and came in as 45.4.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.122
  • R2 1.1187
  • R1 1.1161

Pivot Point 1.1128

  • S1 1.1101
  • S2 1.1069
  • S3 1.1042

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The bullish bias of the EUR/USD continues to prevail in the market as the EUR/USD is heading north towards the next target level of 1.1150 level. A bullish breakout of 1.1150 level may lead the pair towards 1.1220 level today while support holds around 1.1080 level. Bullish bias seems dominant today. Consider taking buying trades over 1.1140 level to target 1.1199. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD was closed at 1.24884 after placing a high of 1.25064 and a low of 1.23236. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The British Pound rose to near one month high against the U.S. dollar on Monday, ahead of Brexit talks, which are scheduled on Tuesday. Market participants are cautious and fear that the U.K. and E.U. might fail to make progress on upcoming trade talks. Sterling rose above 1.2500 level, which is its highest since May 5.

The chances for any real progress in negotiations between the E.U. and U.K. are very low, and that is why GBP/USD was raised on Monday on the back of increased risk sentiment. Time for agreeing to extend the transition period by June 30 deadline is running out when the U.K. had already denied extending the transition period, the risk for no-deal Brexit increased and made investors cautious.

Market participants are buying Sterling with hope for failure in the next round of talks and catching big moves on Tuesday, and this large buying on Monday gave a push to GBP/USD pair. No-deal Brexit would further harm the already disturbed economy of Great Britain due to the coronavirus crisis, and it would make the recovery even more difficult.

Some market participants think that the increased economic growth concerns have made Britain’s bargaining power a little less, and they are waiting to place any big move. 

On the data front, at 13:30 GMT, The Final Manufacturing PMI from Britain in the month of May came in line with the expectations of 40.7. The U.S. dollar was weak across the board due to the poor-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI release, which came in short of expected 43.5 as 43.1 and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The weak U.S. dollar further added in the upward trend of GBP/USD on Monday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2744
  • R2 1.2626
  • R1 1.256

Pivot Point 1.2441

  • S1 1.2375
  • S2 1.2256
  • S3 1.219

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD continues trading bullish as it has violated the double top resistance area around 1.2545 level. Bullish crossover of this level is now likely to extend the buying trend until 1.2600, but on the way, the upward channel’s upward trendline is expected to provide resistance around 1.2560, while the support level stays at 1.2480 today. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA is suggesting bullish bias, and now the MACD is suggesting buying trend in the GBP/USD pair as the histograms are forming above zero levels. Consider taking buying trades over 1.2510 and selling below the same level today.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY was closed at 107.587 after placing a high of 107.855 and a low of 107.376. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained bearish throughout the day. The pair USD/JPY started its week on the back foot as the U.S. dollar faced pressure due to increased protests across the U.S. The U.S. Dollar Index extended its losses and moved below the handle of 98.

Thousands of protesters came out to the streets of cities around the U.S. despite curfew orders on Monday. The protests were against the killing of George Floyd, a black man in police custody. Angry protests continued nationwide a week after George Floyd’s death. Reports of looting, destruction, and firing came in from across the cities. On Monday, police used tear gas to clear a path for Donald Trump to visit a damaged church. Thousands of arrests have been made, and five deaths and millions of dollars in property damage were reported, which made investors sell the U.S. dollar, and hence, the U.S. dollar became weak across the board.

On the US-China front, the news conference of Donald Trump failed to entertain the hopes of new sanctions on China on Friday. Trump refrained from imposing new sanctions on China against the new security law on Hong Kong rather than announced to halt the U.S. relationship with WHO.

The threats of revoking phase-one trade deal, which was signed in January, are increasing day by day with the increasing tensions between China & the United States.

On the data front, at 4:50 GMT, the Capital Spending for the quarter from Japan was increased by 4.3% against the declined forecast of 5.1% and gave strength to JPY. At 5:30 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI for May came in line with the expectations of 38.4 from Japan. The stronger than expected data from Japan gave strength to the Japanese Yen and added in the downward pressure of the USD/JPY pair.

At 18:45 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI for May came in line with the expectations of 39.8. At 19:00 GMT, the closely watched ISM Manufacturing PMI fell short of expected 43.5 and released as 43.1 and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

The Construction Spending for the month fell less than expected -6.5% as -2.9% and supported the U.S. dollar. The ISM Manufacturing Prices rose to 40.8against the 40.0 of expectations and supported the U.S. dollar.

The closely watched and long-awaited ISM Manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations and weighed on the U.S. dollar resulted in a downward trend of USD/JPY at the starting day of the week.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108.33
  • R2 108.1
  • R1 107.84

Pivot Point 107.61

  • S1 107.36
  • S2 107.12
  • S3 106.87

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair continues to trade sideways, maintaining the same trading range of 107.950 – 107.400. On the 4 hour timeframe, the USD/JPY pair has crossed below 50 EMA and has also formed a bearish engulfing candle supporting bullish bias among traders. The USD/JPY pair may find support at 107.425 and resistance at 107.900 level while the breakout of this range will determine the next trend in the pair. Today let’s consider buying over 107.400 and resistance around 107.900. All the best for today! 

 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, May 26 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – CB Consumer Confidence Ahead

The U.S. dollar, which behaves like a safe-haven asset during political uncertainty & market turmoil, rose to a one-week high against the basket of 6 currencies, but it started to erase its daily gains in late London Session. Tensions between U.S. &China have increased since the coronavirus outbreak, over which both countries have exchanged accusations of cover-ups and lack of transparency with the world. The signs for easing tensions between the two biggest economies of the world are decreasing day by day and have created an uncertain environment in the market weighing on the market.

The U.S. dollar, which behaves like a safe-haven asset during political uncertainty & market turmoil, rose to a one-week high against the basket of 6 currencies, but it started to erase its daily gains in late London Session. Tensions between U.S. &China have increased since the coronavirus outbreak, over which both countries have exchanged accusations of cover-ups and lack of transparency with the world. The signs for easing tensions between the two biggest economies of the world are decreasing day by day and have created an uncertain environment in the market weighing on the market.

The U.S. dollar, which behaves like a safe-haven asset during political uncertainty & market turmoil, rose to a one-week high against the basket of 6 currencies, but it started to erase its daily gains in late London Session. Tensions between U.S. &China have increased since the coronavirus outbreak, over which both countries have exchanged accusations of cover-ups and lack of transparency with the world. The signs for easing tensions between the two biggest economies of the world are decreasing day by day and have created an uncertain environment in the market weighing on the market.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

   

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.08964 after placing a high of 1.09144 and a low of 1.08702. Overall, the EUR/USD pair showed a null movement on Monday as the open and closed levels were almost the same.

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair moved in a tight range between 1.087 to 1.089 while managed to cut earlier losses and touched 1.091 level. The upbeat movement in the previous trading session on Monday for the pair was due to the German IFO Business Climate, which came in favor of EUR for May. 

At 11:00 GMT, the German Final GDP for the quarter came in line with the expectations of -2.2% and had null-effect on the currency pair. However, at 13:00 GMT, the German IFO Business Climate, which measures the business conditions and expectations from Eurozone, was released as 79.5 against the expectations of 78.3 and April’s 74.2. The Index rebounded from the expectations and recovered from its worst decline in April on the reopening of Europe’s largest economy, which boosted corporate hopes.

At 17:56 GMT, the Belgian NBB Business Climate was dropped by 34.4 points against the expected decline of 29.7 and April’s 36.1. The more than expected decline in Belgian Business Climate weighed on EUR currency and dragged down the pair EUR/USD in late sessions.

In the meantime, the pair kept looking at U.S. dynamics for near term directions with the latest US-China & Hong Kong conflict which has reduced the importance of coronavirus development as the primary driver of global price action.

In this time, when investors are cautious about adding to their equity holdings because of the uncertain conditions of the post-lockdown world, Germany’s IFO institute survey for May granted some relief to them.

The lockdown measures introduced in mid-March have put the global economy on track for a recession this year. In recent weeks, the world’s market has only been held up due to the stimulus measures taken by central banks. 

EUR remained steady on Monday near 1.09 level and recovered from earlier losses, as the focus of market participants shifted to the proposal the European Commission will release on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, the European Central Bank’s president Christine Lagarde will speak, and traders will be looking at it for fresh bids along with the EMU’s Consumer Confidence & Advanced Inflation data from Eurozone. On Tuesday, Consumer Confidence by the Conference Board is due to release. The Claims & Durable Goods Orders will be published on Thursday later this week.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.0965
  • R2 1.094
  • R1 1.092

Pivot Point 1.0895

  • S1 1.0875
  • S2 1.085
  • S3 1.0829

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD pair is on a bullish run, trading over 1.0914 level, having violated the horizontal resistance level of 1.0914 level. Above 1.0914, we may see the EUR/USD prices heading further higher towards the next resistance area of 1.0590. The EUR/USD pair had completed 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0885 and has bounced off over this level. For now, the pair is holding over 50 EMA, which is also suggesting the chances of a bullish trend continuation. We should consider taking buying positions over 1.0894 today while selling should be preferred only below this level. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.21752 after placing a high of 1.22034 and a low of 1.21637. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained flat throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair remained flat and moved on a consolidating range on Monday as investors were cautious about the relaxation of lockdown measures, which gave a push to equities while ding the U.S. dollar demand.

On Monday, the Prime Minister of the U.K. instructed officials to draw up plans to reduce the involvement of Huawei Technologies Co in the U.K.’s fifth-generation mobile networks in the wake of the COVID 19 outbreak.

Johnson gave his officials instructions to draw up plans for reducing China’s involvement in the 5G infrastructure of the U.K. to a scale of zero by 2023. It looks like China’s pandemic handling has triggered calls from U.K.’s PM to rethink having closer ties with China.

In January, the U.K.’s government decided to give Huawei a limited role in 5G wireless networks and fiber. PM Johnson has amicable ties with U.S. President Donald Trump, and it looks like Johnson has taken this step to improve his relationship with the U.S.

Furthermore, on Brexit front, the trade negotiations between E.U. & U.K. have been negative for Sterling throughout the session and will likely remain the same in the coming days. The chances for hard-Brexit have increased as the UK-EU transition period is coming closer day by day, and there are no signs of any deal happening sooner. However, calls to extend the transition period have made due to pandemic; this decision will have to be made by June 30. But PM Johnson and negotiating team from the U.K. has so far been unequivocal that no extension would be made.

Johnson had articulated the Brexit deal with a clear timeline and has promised not to make any changes or compromise or bow to pressure for an extension. The deadline to call for an extension is coming up next month, and this has exerted downside pressure on GBP.

In the absence of any macroeconomic data from the U.K. and U.S. side due to bank holiday, the pair GBP/USD remained flat on Monday and continued its previous moves.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.225
  • R2 1.2227
  • R1 1.2209

Pivot Point 1.2186

  • S1 1.2167
  • S2 1.2145
  • S3 1.2126

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD prices continue to trade in line with our previous forecast as the sideways trading range remains intact. The overall trading range remains 1.2170 – 1.2270. In the 4 hour timeframe, we can see a symmetric triangle pattern, which is exhibiting indecision among traders. On the downside, the GBP may gain support against the U.S. dollar around 1.2170 level, and violation of this level may extend selling until the next support area of 1.2080. Consider taking buying trades over 1.2186 and selling below the same level today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.704 after placing a high of 107.780 and a low of 107.556. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. The USD/JPY pair fluctuated in a tight range of 15 pips because of the absence of American traders for Memorial Day.

On Monday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe lifted the coronavirus state of emergency in Tokyo and other areas. The nationwide end of restrictions and reopening of businesses were to take effect as of Monday.

The Japanese PM also introduced a new plan for a new stimulus package to support the businesses and Japan’s economy hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Abe said that Japan has managed to bring the epidemic under control, and the exit from it was in sight. However, this announcement from Abe had little to no impact on JPY’s movement against its rival currencies.

Meanwhile, on the US-China relation front, China’s move to impose a new security law on Hong Kong has escalated concerns about the stability of the city and global trade prospects, which upset the United States and thus, US-Sino relation worsen even more.

The U.S. dollar, which behaves like a safe-haven asset during political uncertainty & market turmoil, rose to a one-week high against the six currencies. Still, it started to erase its daily gains in the late London Session. Tensions between U.S. &China have increased since the coronavirus outbreak, over which both countries have exchanged accusations of cover-ups and lack of transparency with the world. The signs for easing tensions between the two biggest economies of the world are decreasing day by day and have created an uncertain environment in the market weighing on the market.

Furthermore, the USD/JPY pair moved very little on Monday amid thin trading conditions. At the same time, the U.S. dollar Index remained flat near 99.80 level throughout the day as investors showed no interest in the greenback. Moreover, the market participants will be looking at the release of the Corporate Service Price Index and All Industry Activity Index from Japan on Tuesday. From the American side, the Fed National Activity Index and New Homme Sales & C.B. Consumer Confidence data will be under consideration.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108.03
  • R2 107.91
  • R1 107.8

Pivot Point 107.68

  • S1 107.57
  • S2 107.45
  • S3 107.35

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY continues following the same technical setups that we spoke about on a previous day. The pair is still trading choppy, but it’s peaking out of tight trading range of 107.630 – 107.350. Above 107.650 level, we may see USD/JPY prices heading towards the next resistance level of 108.130. The ascending triangle pattern was already violated, and the upward trendline is expected to keep the USD/JPY supported around 107.350. Breakout of USD/JPY support area of 107.35 can lead the USD/JPY prices towards 106.850. So let’s consider taking buying trades over 107.68 today. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, May 19 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Buckle Up for Fed Chair Powell Testimony!  

On Tuesday, eyes will be on the U.K. Jobless claims data, which are coming out shortly. COVID could badly impact the news release, and it may drive selling bias in the Sterling pairs. Besides, the G7 meeting and Fed Chair Powell testimony will also remain in the highlights today.

On Tuesday, eyes will be on the U.K. Jobless claims data, which are coming out shortly. COVID could badly impact the news release, and it may drive selling bias in the Sterling pairs. Besides, the G7 meeting and Fed Chair Powell testimony will also remain in the highlights today.

On Tuesday, eyes will be on the U.K. Jobless claims data, which are coming out shortly. COVID could badly impact the news release, and it may drive selling bias in the Sterling pairs. Besides, the G7 meeting and Fed Chair Powell testimony will also remain in the highlights today.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD prices were closed at 1.09141 after placing a high of 1.09268 and a low of 1.07966. Overall the EUR/USD pair remained strongly bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair surged to its highest since May 5 on the back of a proposal, which was announced by France & Germany on Monday. Both countries joined to provide $543 in recovery fund, which would offer grants to regions of the bloc, which were highly affected by coronavirus pandemic. 

They also proposed to allow the European Commission to borrow more money on markets to finance the fund. The president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, has been urging more fiscal measures and welcomed and targeted the Franco-German proposal. She said that monetary policy transmission was as important as the policy, and there was no risk to the euro currency, which was irreversible.

Single currency euro gained on Monday due to the jointly raised debt from France & Germany. The pair EUR/USD rose above 1.0900 level and gave a robust bullish move on that day. The U.S. dollar, on the other hand, remained weaker due to increased risk appetite in the market after the hopes for a possible COVID019 vaccine increased in the market. The optimism raised after the first trial of the vaccine gave early reports positively and increased the demand for riskier assets like EUR/USD pair.

The markets were fueled by the increased hopes for a vaccine and the rising risk-appetite in the market along with the announcement of a recovery fund worth 500 billion euros by German Chancellor Merkel and French President Macron. The fund was introduced to reduce the effect of coronavirus pandemic on the region’s economy.

Across Europe, many measures have been taken to reduce the coronavirus impact on the economy, including PEPP bond purchases by ECB, the 55billio package from Italy government, and the extension of job retention scheme from the U.K.’s Chancellor. Apart from the measures mentioned above to recover the eurozone’s economy, more measures might include more asset purchases in June.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1089
  • R2 1.1008
  • R1 1.0961

Pivot Point 1.088

  • S1 1.0833
  • S2 1.0752
  • S3 1.0705

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.0817, trading below 50 periods EMA resistance at 1.0838 level. Last week, the pair bounced off over the double bottom support level of 1.07756. The direct currency pair is consolidating in a sideways range of 1.09070 – 1.09250, and violation of this will determine further trends in the market. On the higher side, the EUR/USD pair may head upward until the next target level of 1.0956 level while support holds at 1.08850 today.

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.21952 after placing a high of 1.22272 and a low of 1.20752. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout the day. The pair GBP/USD spiked to fresh daily gains around 1.2200 level during early American sessions on the back of broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and increased risk appetite.

GBP was dropping continuously in previous sessions on the back of delayed Brexit talks, which could result in no-deal Brexit. Still, on Monday, it showed a recovery after the renewed U.S. dollar selling bias. The Sterling was supported by the weak U.S. dollar on Monday and was forced to move upward.

In recent months, the trade talks between the U.K. & E.U. has shown no progress due to increased frustrations over each other’s ideological approach and lack of understanding. Diplomats & officials had forecasted that before the deadline of June 30, the questions would be raised in the market for companies about future trade between U.K. & E.U. Before coronavirus, the total amount of trade between the world’s fifth-biggest economy and its biggest trading bloc accounted for 650 billion pounds.

The negotiation between U.K. & E.U. has been affected due to video-conferencing; officials suggested that if they had to conduct meeting in a face-to-face environment, then results would have been different. 

Britain left the European Union on January 31, and both sides now run under a tight schedule to sign a deal before 2021, when on 31st December U.K. will leave E.U. with or without a deal. U.K. wanted a free trade agreement with E.U. just like Canada has with E.U. or Japan while E.U. has been arguing for a wider agreement, including Britain’s proximity to the bloc.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2411
  • R2 1.2319
  • R1 1.2257

Pivot Point 1.2166

  • S1 1.2104
  • S2 1.2013
  • S3 1.195

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD traded sharply bullish to trade at 1.2245 level despite the release of worse than expected Labor market reports from the U.K. At the moment, the cable is facing resistance around 50 EMA level, which holds at 1.2255 level. The closing of candles below 1.2260 can drive selling. Still, considering the recent bullish engulfing and long histograms of GBP/USD pair, we may see a continuation of a bullish trend in the Sterling. On the upper side, the violation of 1.2246 level may lead Sterling towards 1.2318 today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY was closed at 107.327 after placing a high of 107.503 and a low of 107.058. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish that day. Despite U.S. dollar weakness, USD/JPY pair rose on Monday to touch a fresh daily high above 107.500 level and posted gains of 0.32% on that day.

The risk-on market sentiment on that day weighed on safe-haven Japanese Yen after the hopes about quick global economic recovery re-emerged in the market. A coronavirus vaccine trial gave hopes to the possible cure for the virus and revived optimism in the market to raise stock indexes.

A company named Moderna has announced that its first human trials for its coronavirus vaccine reported more or similar blood levels, which include virus-fighting antibodies in participants than the recovered patients of COVID-19. It reported that the vaccine could help improve the immune system.

According to the New York Times, A phase 1 study by Moderna has developed the vaccine in collaboration with the National Institute of Allergy, and Infectious Diseases has gone very well. Phase 2 of the study has been granted an expected enroll of 600 volunteers half older than 55 to provide additional immunogenicity data. Phase 3 will begin in July, which will aim at proving that vaccines could actually prevent the viral disease.

Meanwhile, the risk-sensitive currencies like EUR and GBP gained a lot of traction in the market against the U.S. dollar, which weighed on the U.S. dollar and decreased its demand on Monday. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against the basket of six currencies, lost more than 0.5% on Monday and fell near 99.80 level.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108.04
  • R2 107.78
  • R1 107.56

Pivot Point 107.3

  • S1 107.09
  • S2 106.82
  • S3 106.61

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The technical side of the USD/JPY mostly remains the same as the pair continues to exhibit choppy sessions in between 107.480 – 107.029 level. Overall, the pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern, and it’s been trading within the same triangle pattern. Bullish crossover of 107.485 level may extend buying until the next resistance level of 107.650, and violation of this could determine the actual trend in the pair. So far, the traders seem confused over the market sentiments. On the lower side, the pair is facing support by the upward trendline, which holds around 107 mark. Let’s trade choppy until the violation occurs. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, May 15 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Retail Sales in Highlights!

On the news front, the economic calendar remains busy on Friday. Today’s releases may trigger some price action in the Euro and U.S. related pairs, especially on the release of German GDP, Eurozone Flash GDP, and U.S. core retail sales figures, which are due to come out during European and U.S. session respectively.

On the news front, the economic calendar remains busy on Friday. Today’s releases may trigger some price action in the Euro and U.S. related pairs, especially on the release of German GDP, Eurozone Flash GDP, and U.S. core retail sales figures, which are due to come out during European and U.S. session respectively.

On the news front, the economic calendar remains busy on Friday. Today’s releases may trigger some price action in the Euro and U.S. related pairs, especially on the release of German GDP, Eurozone Flash GDP, and U.S. core retail sales figures, which are due to come out during European and U.S. session respectively.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

During the early Asain trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair flashing green, but remains trading in the confined range around above the 1.0800 level ahead of Germany’s preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter. The broad-based U.S. dollar modest weakness helping the currency pair to stay positive and kept a lid on any additional losses, at least for now. For example, the currency pair is looking directionless as the S&P 500 is sidelined, and the Asian stocks are adding in a mixed performance. 

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.0806 and consolidates in the range between the 1.0798 – 1.0809. However, the traders are keenly awaiting Germany’s preliminary gross domestic product ahead of a strong position.

At the data front, Germany’s preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter, which is scheduled to publish at 06:00 GMT, is anticipated to show the old continent’s biggest economy declined by 2.2%, having increased by 0.4% in the final 3-months of 2019. It should be noted that the GDP prints of -2.2% or lower would be considered the worst reading since the ist-quarter of 2009. 

Germany had declared a secure national lockdown on March 22, which meant the economic activity came to a stop only in the last 8 or 9 of the 1st-quarter. In contrast, Germany is dependent on the dragon nation, which had already faced a sharp recession in the activity in the first two months of the year, mainly due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Therefore, there are many chances that Germany reporting a bigger-than-expected recession in the first quarter will not be rejected. As we already mentioned, the economists are expecting a 2.2% decrease, as per Germany’s DIW economic institute, the economy expected declined by 2% in the first quarter. Alternatively, the DIW expects a 10% decline in the GDP in the second quarter. 

Moving on, the EUR/USD currency pair may not pay any significant attention if the GDP prints in line with estimates as the market already priced in the worst condition of significant economies during the March and more so in April caused by coronavirus outbreak.

The currency pair could be able to take bids only if prints would be a surprise beat on expectations, but the gains would be temporary or short-lived if the risk sentiment turns heavy. Looking forward, market participants now look forward to Germany’s preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter, which is scheduled to publish at 06:00 GMT. The trade/virus updates could also entertain market traders.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0673
  • S2 1.0758
  • S3 1.079
  • Pivot Point 1.0843
  • R1 1.0874
  • R2 1.0928
  • R3 1.1013

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0807, bouncing off over the double bottom support level of 1.07756. On the 4 hour chart, the EUR/USD is closing bullish candles above upward channel trendline, but at the same time, the 50 EMA and horizontal resistance seem to drive bearish sentiment for the EUR/USD pair. Extension of selling below 1.0843 level may lead the EUR/USD prices towards 1.07782 level, and below this, the next support is likely to be found around 1.0730. Consider staying bullish above and bearish below 1.0770 level today. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair failed to stop its 5-day losing streak and dropped below the 1.2210 level while representing 0.15% losses on the day mainly due to the Brexit worries and coronavirus crisis. The broad-based U.S. dollar over-all bullish sentiment also weighed on the currency pair and kept the pair down. The GBP/USD is trading at 1.2208 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2203 – 1.2237. However, the traders are cautious about placing any strong position as they are keenly awaiting today’s U.S. consumer-centric data.

At the Brexit front, the European Union (E.U.) and the United Kingdom moderators are still pushing to cancel Brexit talk, which decided to happen through video conferences. At the same time, the European Commission’s (E.C.) took legal action against the U.K., which made talks tougher to happen. The European Commission initiated legal proceedings against the U.K. on Thursday, while accusing the U.K. about failing to comply with E.U. law on free movement which eventually keeps the cable currency under pressure and contributes to the pair’s declines.

On the flip side, the UK PM Boris Johnson keeps its preference high toward border checks at the Northern Ireland (N.I.) while the N.I. Secretary Brandon Lewis has repeatedly said there shall not be a border down the Irish Sea.

At the coronavirus front, the infected cases by coronavirus reached around 233 thousand overall in England, including 25 thousand in London,

as per the latest research by the Public Health England (PHE) and Cambridge University. In the meantime, the United Kingdom is talking with Swiss drugmaker Roche Holding AG about to buy an accurate COVID-19 antibody test after getting preliminary approval by the European Union and the United States.

Apart from this, the Bank Of England governor Andrew Bailey showed a willingness to take further action but denied rate cuts. The reason for the pairs bearish moves could also be attributed to the statement of the British central bank’s citizen panel in which they expect COVID-19 to have a large and enduring influence on the economy and society more broadly.

At the USD front, the broad-based U.S. dollar bolsters by the receding expectations of negative Fed rate and the increased probabilities of further stimulus from the government. While the Dollar Index (DXY), a gauge of the greenback versus significant currencies, remains mildly bid around 100.30 by the press time.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2577
  • R2 1.2508
  • R1 1.2422

Pivot Point 1.2353

  • S1 1.2268
  • S2 1.2198
  • S3 1.2113

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On the last trading day of the week, the GBP/USD is trading sideways at 1.2200 after breaking below the narrow trading range of 1.2320 – 1.2245. The Cable has formed a new range of 1.2245 – 1.2186, however it’s still holding below 50 EMA, which is extending resistance around 1.2260 level today. On the 4 hour chart, the GBP/USD is gaining support at 1.2180 level while the 50 EMA and horizontal resistance stay at a level of 1.2245. 

The violation of the sideways trading range of 1.2245 – 1.2180, and the release of U.S. retail sales may help drive breakout in the GBP/USD pair. 

The GBP/USD pair may lead its prices towards an immediate support level of 1.2190 and 1.2150 in case of positive date; elsewhere, the GBP/USD pair may soar towards 1.2240 and 1.2310. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 107.224 after placing a high of 107.363 and a low of 106.773. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish throughout the day. After dropping below 107 level on Thursday, the USD/JPY pair regained its strength and posted gains for the day on the back of the improved market sentiment. The increased claims for jobless benefits from the United States during the last week failed to weigh on the U.S. dollar. A total of 2.9M Americans applied for unemployment benefits in the previous week against the expected 2.5M.

At 17:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims for last week exceeded the expectations of 2500K and came in as 2981K and weighed on the U.S. dollar. The Import Prices for April were declined by 2.6% against the forecasted decline by 3.1% and supported the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. Dollar Index ignored the job data from the United States and moved above 100.40 level on Thursday, which helped USD/JPY pair to stretch its gains. Another factor adding in the upward trend of the USD/JPY pair was the comments from Donald Trump in support of the dollar. He said that a strong dollar was a great thing that could help in fast economic recovery after the coronavirus, this triggered the U.S. dollar buying wave and extended USD/JPY pair’s gains.

From the Japan side, at 4:50 GMT, The M2 Money Stock for the year from Japan was recorded as 3.7% against the forecast of 3.4% and supported Japanese Yen. At 10:59 GMT, the Prelim Machine Tool Orders for the year showed a decline of -48.3% in comparison to the previous -40.7%. 

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 109.37
  • R2 108.57
  • R1 108.12

Pivot Point 107.33

  • S1 106.88
  • S2 106.09
  • S3 105.64

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The safe-haven Japanese yen continues to trade in line with our previous forecasts. On Friday, the USD/JPY traded bearishly to trade below the support level of 107, which marked the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The USD/JPY is holding at 107.05, where the 50 EMA is supporting the pair, and it may drop further below the 107 level. At the moment, the 4-hour candle appears to close below 107 support become resistant, and this may drive more selling in the USD/JPY pair. The pair may extend selling until 106.600 level, whereas the closing of buying candles above 107 can trigger bullish bias until 107.50. By the way, bearish bias seems solid today. All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, April 28 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Get Ready for C.B. Consumer Confidence

On Tuesday, the eyes will be on the U.S. Commerce Department, which will release March wholesale inventories (-0.5% on month expected) and advance goods trade balance (55.0 billion dollars deficit expected). The Conference Board will publish April Consumer Confidence Index (87.9 expected)S.P.SP/Case-Shiller will report 20-City Composite Home Price Index for February (+0.4% on month expected). Let’s look at today’s trade setups.

On Tuesday, the eyes will be on the U.S. Commerce Department, which will release March wholesale inventories (-0.5% on month expected) and advance goods trade balance (55.0 billion dollars deficit expected). The Conference Board will publish April Consumer Confidence Index (87.9 expected)S.P.SP/Case-Shiller will report 20-City Composite Home Price Index for February (+0.4% on month expected). Let’s look at today’s trade setups.

On Tuesday, the eyes will be on the U.S. Commerce Department, which will release March wholesale inventories (-0.5% on month expected) and advance goods trade balance (55.0 billion dollars deficit expected). The Conference Board will publish April Consumer Confidence Index (87.9 expected)S.P.SP/Case-Shiller will report 20-City Composite Home Price Index for February (+0.4% on month expected). Let’s look at today’s trade setups.

Economic Events to Watch Today     

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

Today in the early Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair is flashing red, and, having faced rejection at 1.0860, it pulled back mainly because the European leaders failed to reach on the agreement and left the ECB alone for the fight against coronavirus recession. That keeps the shared currency under pressure.

The broad-baseU.S.S. dollar latest recovery sentiment also pushes the currency pair lower. However, the pair’s sentiment will remain neutral while the pair is confined within the trading range of 1.0727-1.0860. A breakout could pave the way for at least a 100-pip rally, while a range breakdown would show the 2020 low of 1.0636. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.0820 and consolidates in the range between the 1.0817 – 1.0837.

The direction in the currency pair would depend on Fed & ECB actions. It remains to see what the Federal Reserve and the European Central Banks Deliver during this week. Although, there is an option of increased bond purchases for both Central Banks but having eased aggressively between meetings.

The United States is struggling over the past two months in the fight against the coronavirus and having used multiple ways to tame this outbreak. So, as in result, the Federal Reserve can be quiet and measure the situation about the virus front, and the impact of the multiple easing measures announced over the past two months. 

In the meantime, the European leaders did not succeed in reaching an agreement on spending last week, left the European Central Bank alone during its tough time in a fight against the coronavirus-induced recession. Most of the observers think the ECB could hint that it will be ready to provide additional easing during the month of June. As a result, EUR/USD is more likely to suffer a range breakdown. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0748
  • S2 1.0792
  • S3 1.0811

Pivot Point 1.0836

  • R1 1.0855
  • R2 1.0879
  • R3 1.0923

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD is trading sideways around 1.0828, despite the stronger Spanish Spanish Unemployment Rate from the Eurozone. The overall trading bias continues to be bearish as the EUR/USD prices are holding below 50 EMA, which is extending resistance around 1.0837 level. On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD may find resistance around 1.0837 level, and bullish breakout of this level can continue buying until 1.0889 level. Conversely, the bearish breakout of 1.0765 level can drive selling until 1.0649 level today, let’s look for selling trades below 1.0770 level today.  

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

During Tuesday’s early Asian session, the GBP/USD currency pair failed to extend its four-day winning streak and dropped from the weekly high to 1.2415 while representing 0.13% losses on the day, as the broad-baseU.S.S. dollar regains the bids on optimism about reopening thU.S.S. economy. In the meantime, the intensifying fears and uncertainty abouU.K.K. lockdowns extension in the wake of coronavirus (COVID-19) also keeps the currency pair under pressure. The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.2442 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2407 – 1.2450.

News oU.K.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson returning back to the office helped the currency pair to register a 3-day winning streak on Monday after the Tory leader gave a cautious statement regarding the pandemic fears and showed some willingness to ease the lockdown despite coming coronavirus cases.

As per the latest report, the virus figures from thU.K.K. registered further 360 people died due to the virus in hospitals, reaching the total number of deaths to 21,092. Whereas, the death toll fell to the lowest in a month as compared to previous months.

Apart from this, the on-going criticism on Tory government’s about the handling of coronavirus crisis, and shortage of medical supplies also keeps the UK PM worried about lifting the lockdowns restrictions.

On the other hand, the Tory government’s struggles for further tests in order to achieve 100,000 a day target as well as calling for public questions to be discussed in the daily briefings also showing the UK PM Johnson and Tory party’s interest for the country while the chancellor’s struggles to keep small companies comfortable are also favorable for Tory’s despite recent criticism about the cracks in the mechanism.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2315
  • S2 1.2371
  • S3 1.24

Pivot Point 1.2427

  • R1 1.2456
  • R2 1.2483
  • R3 1.2539

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is exhibiting bullish bias as it’s trading at 1.2459 area, having violated the sideways trading range of 1.2450 – 1.2396. Closing of candles outside this range will determine further trends in the market. The Cable has closed candles above 50 EMA, which are extending support to the GBP/USD pair. 

On the upper side, the GBP/USD may find resistance around 1.2523, and violation of this can lead Sterling further higher until 1.2626 area. While immediate support holds around 1.2396 level, let’s look for buying trades above 1.2399 and bearish trades below 1.2520 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY lost 0.2% to 107.28. The Bank of Japan announced that it would purchase the required amount of Japanese government bonds with no border, compared with a previous target of Y80 trillion, while keeping its benchmark rate at -0.1% unchanged. This morning, official data showed that Japan’s jobless rate edged up to 2.5% in March (as expected) from 2.4% in February.

ThU.S.S. Dollar Index, which dropped below the 100 marks earlier in the day, is up 0.12% on the day at 100.47 and stays on track to close the 4th-straight day in the positive area. The latest pullback of the U.S. dollar kept a lid on bullish moves in the pair. Currently, the USD/JPY is trading at 107.27 and consolidates in the range between the 106.98 – 107.86. However, investors are cautious and waiting for a fresh catalyst before placing any position.

Looking forward, the virus headlines will be the key catalyst, while thU.S.S. data about the Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed Manufacturing could offer intermediate moves. ThU.S.S. Commerce Department will release March wholesale inventories (-0.5% on month expected) and advance goods trade balance (55.0 billion dollars deficit expected). 

The Conference Board will publish April Consumer Confidence Index (87.9 expected). S.P./Case-Shiller will report the 20-City Composite Home Price Index for February (+0.4% on month expected).

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108.25
  • R2 107.94
  • R1 107.59

Pivot Point 107.29

  • S1 106.94
  • S2 106.64
  • S3 106.29

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading with a bearish bias on Tuesday, as its prices are holding above the triple bottom support level of 107. Since Japanese yen is gaining bullish momentum, driving USD/JPY down, the violation of the 107 level can lead the pair towards the next support area of 106.550. The resistance today stays around 107.400, and above this, the next resistance may be found around 107.640. 

The 50 EMA is left around 107.570, which is far away around from current market prices of 107.045. While the MACD is suggesting selling bias among USD/JPY traders, so let’s keep an eye on the 107 level as we may see selling below this, and buying above this level today. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, April 23 – Top Trade Setups In Forex -U.S. Unemployment Figures Ahead! 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index surged 0.1% on the day to 100.35, surging for a third consistent session. The U.K. Office for National Statistics will release March public sector net borrowing, excluding banking groups (1.8 billion pounds expected).

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index surged 0.1% on the day to 100.35, surging for a third consistent session. The U.K. Office for National Statistics will release March public sector net borrowing, excluding banking groups (1.8 billion pounds expected).

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index surged 0.1% on the day to 100.35, surging for a third consistent session. The U.K. Office for National Statistics will release March public sector net borrowing, excluding banking groups (1.8 billion pounds expected).

The U.S. Labor Department will release initial jobless claims in the week ended April 18 (4.5 million expected). The Commerce Department will report March new home sales (640,000 units expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today     

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD fell to trade below 1.0800, the lowest level in nearly two weeks. The official figures revealed that the eurozone’s Consumer Confidence Index slips to -22.7 in April (-20.0 expected) from -11.6 in March. At the coronavirus front, as per the latest report, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases grew to 145,694, with 4,879 deaths reported in Germany so far. As the incidents increased by 2,237 in Germany, a 1.6% rise picking-up pace from Tuesday’s 1.3% increment, the death toll moved sharply up by 281 vs. 194 a day before.

There remains some uncertainty that Europe is still not ready to deepen fiscal integration, and the finance ministers will likely be unable to give an appropriate fiscal stimulus. As in result, the peripheral bond spreads may widen, which may booster further losses in the EUR/USD currency pair.

The eurozone economy experienced the sheerest declines in business activity and employment ever registered during April as a consequence of actions taken to restrain the coronavirus break, according to provisional PMI survey figures. 

The flash IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI plunged to an all-time low of 13.5 in the month of April, falling from a previous historic low of 29.7 in March. It registers by far the most significant monthly breakdown in production recorded in over two decades of survey data collection.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0673
  • S2 1.0755
  • S3 1.0789
  • Pivot Point 1.0837
  • R1 1.0871
  • R2 1.0919
  • R3 1.1001

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading bearish at 1.0793, as traders are selling euro on the back of weaker than anticipated manufacturing and services PMI figures. The overall bias prevails bearish as the EUR/USD prices are holding below 50 EMA, which is extending resistance around 1.0837 level. Continuation of a selling trend below 1.0837 level may lead EUR/USD pair until the next support area of 1.0772, whereas below this, the next support prevails around 1.0652 level. The pair may find an immediate resistance level of around 1.0837, while the bullish breakout of this level can extend buying until the next resistance level of 1.0922. Conversely, we should look for selling trades below 1.0830 level today.  

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD surged 0.3% to 1.2325. Government economic figures reported that U.K. CPI soared 1.5% on year in March (as expected). On the other hand, the Markit U.K. Manufacturing PMI (42.0 estimated) and Services PMI (27.8 expected) for April will be published later today.

The latest and modest recovery in the U.S. dollar keeps the currency pair under pressure. The GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2363 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2313 – 1.2369. However, the traders are keenly waiting for the key UK PMI, and U.S. Jobless Claims data. They are cautious about placing any strong bids.

The members of the cabinet got the chance for the first time to criticize Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Company’s poor performance about managing the coronavirus crisis in the U.K. However, the members did not only criticized for the lack of medical supplies, but they also indicated the shortage of nurses.

In return, the deputized PM indicated the nearness to the peak of the outbreak. The Health Secretary Matt Hancock is suggesting the start of the human trials over 300,000 people in a year.

On the positive side, the report came that the Prime Minister johnson will attend his conversation with the Queen through telephone after this week, although his deputy Dominic Raab is officially leading the country due to his absence.

On the other hand, the United States President Donald Trump continues to push for the economic re-start, whereas giving worse warnings to Iran. He indicated a decrease in the further coronavirus outbreak. The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and dropped to 1.2325 while representing 0.07% losses on the day, possibly due to the Tory government getting criticism about the mishandling coronavirus crisis.  

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.1974
  • S2 1.2148
  • S3 1.2223

Pivot Point 1.2322

  • R1 1.2397
  • R2 1.2496
  • R3 1.2671

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD showed a slight bullish reversal after testing the target level of 1.2254 area. At the moment, the Cable is trading at 1.2347 area, which is also a resistance level extended by the downward channel. The 50 periods EMA also extend resistance at the same level 1.2368. 

A bullish breakout of 1.2368 level can extend the buying trend until 1.2420 level today. Elsewhere, the support continues to hold around 1.2258 level. The 50 EMA and MACD are both are suggesting selling bias in the Cable. So let’s look for selling trades below 1.2399 and bullish above 1.2420 level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

During the Thursday’s European session, the USD/JPY currency pair flashing green but remained confined between the range between 108.00 Handles mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment keeps the safe-haven Japanse lower and providing support to the currency pair. 

The latest pullback of the U.S. dollar kept a lid on bullish moves in the pair. Currently, the USD/JPY is trading at 107.67 and consolidates in the range between the 107.66 – 107.86. However, investors are cautious and waiting for a fresh catalyst before placing any position.

Whereas, the multiple diverging factors failed to provide any meaningful direction or assist the pair in breaking through a narrow trading band held since the beginning of this week. The reason behind the risk-on market sentiment is the report regarding the passage of another $484 billion U.S. economic support package by the U.S. Senate. While the latest modest recovery in crude oil prices also keeps the market sentiment calm. 

The U.S. dollar drew offer and erased its previous session gains and turned out to be one of the key factors that kept a lid on any additional gains in the pair, at least for now. At the same time, the risk recovery in the global risk sentiment weakens the Japanese yen’s safe-haven demand and collaborates in the pairs gains. The risk-on sentiment was bolstered by a modest rise in the U.S. Treasury bond yields, which extend some support to the U.S. Dollar.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • S1 105.92
  • S2 106.84
  • S3 107.44

Pivot Point 107.76

  • R1 108.36
  • R2 108.69
  • R3 109.61

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Thursday, the USD/JPY is trading mostly sideways within a narrow trading range of 108.020 – 107.300 zones. At the moment, it’s holding at 107.597, having formed a descending triangle pattern on the 4-hour timeframe. The triangle pattern is extending resistance around 107.850, along with support around 106.980. If USD/JPY manages to violate the descending triangle pattern, we may see pair dropping towards 106.200. While on the upper side, a bullish breakout of 108 can lead USD/JPY prices towards 109.100. The leading indicator, such as MACD and 50 EMA, are supporting bearish bias in the market today. Let’s wait for a breakout before taking more trades today.

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, April 16 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Jobless Claims Under Spotlight! 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index recouped losses seen in the prior session, rising 0.7% on the day the to 99.57. Later today, the European Commission will report February industrial production (-0.1% on month expected). The German Federal Statistical Office will report final readings of March CPI (+1.4% on-year expected). 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index recouped losses seen in the prior session, rising 0.7% on the day the to 99.57. Later today, the European Commission will report February industrial production (-0.1% on month expected). The German Federal Statistical Office will report final readings of March CPI (+1.4% on-year expected). 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index recouped losses seen in the prior session, rising 0.7% on the day the to 99.57. Later today, the European Commission will report February industrial production (-0.1% on month expected). The German Federal Statistical Office will report final readings of March CPI (+1.4% on-year expected). 

Economic Events to Watch Today     

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD dipped 0.7% to 1.0905. Later today, the Euro zone’s industrial production for February will be reported (-0.1% on month expected).

Lately, the European stocks were broadly lower, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index sinking 3.3%. Germany’s DAX shed 3.9%, France’s CAC dropped 3.8%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down 3.3%. A sell-off in the stock market seems to weight on the EUR/USD currency pair. 

The official data which is scheduled to release at 09:00 GMT is expected to show that Eurozone’s industrial production decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in February. Markets are now concerned about extended lockdowns indicating a deeper economic recession than previously forecasted. The U.S. Labor Department will release initial jobless claims in the week ended April 11 (5.5 million expected). 

The Commerce Department will report March housing starts (1.3 million units expected) and building permits (1.3 million units expected). The Philadelphia Federal Reserve will post its Business Outlook Index for April (-32.0 expected).

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.067
  • S2 1.0792
  • S3 1.0851

Pivot Point 1.0915

  • R1 1.0973
  • R2 1.1037
  • R3 1.116

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading bearish at 1.0885, exhibiting a bearish crossover below 50 EMA, which is now extending resistance around 1.0923 level. Continuation of a selling trend below 1.09230 level can extend selling until the next support area of 1.0772. The EUR/USD is likely to find support around 1.0850, but below this, the next support prevails around 1.0772 level.

At this moment, the EUR/USD is holding at 1.08820, having an immediate resistance level of around 1.09230, where the bullish breakout of this level can extend buying until the next resistance level of 1.1036. Conversely, we should look for selling trades below 1.09230 today.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

GBP/USD dropped 0.8% to 1.2523 and consolidated in the range between the 1.2604 – 1.2450. However, the currency pair traders did not give any major attention to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis at home because the cases are comparatively more significant in the U.S. 

At the U.K. Crisis front, the United Kingdoms’ coronavirus death toll rose above 11,000, but the buyers are ignoring this probably because the death toll is comparatively larger in the U.S. almost 20,000 deaths have been registered so far.

The Brexit talks, which will be video conferencing between the European Union and the United Kingdom, are expected to happen and will likely entertain the cable traders as both sides have been stuck on the deadlines while the U.K. recently gave warning the bloc to change tactics or face serious ‘problems.

The market’s risk-tone remains heavy with shares in Asia and the U.S. stocks registering losses on the day. At the USD front, the greenback continues to gain support as a safe-haven asset. Although, the deadly virus recession fears are forcing investors to save cash, preferably in the form of the greenback. 

Looking forward, the U.S. Jobless Claims, housing market data, and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, as well as the BOE’s first quarter (Q1) Credit Conditions Survey, will be key to watch. Moreover, the traders are keenly awaited for the speech by the BOE policymaker Silvana Tenreyro for taking fresh clues.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2181
  • S2 1.2353
  • S3 1.244

Pivot Point 1.2525

  • R1 1.2612
  • R2 1.2697
  • R3 1.2869

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a bearish bias over 1.2450 support areas to trade around 1.2486. The GBP/USD pair is likely to find support around 1.2450, which is extended by the triple top level, which got violated on April 10. On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD has formed a small bullish channel, which is likely to extend bullish bias for the pair. 

The 50 periods EMA is also keeping the GBP/USD pair supported around 1.2450. Thus, the bounce off above this level can lead the GBP/USD pair towards the next resistance level of 1.2657. While bearish breakout of 1.2460 can open up further room for selling until the next support area of 1.2220. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

Today in the early Asian session, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to maintain its early uptick above 108.00 level and has now reversed almost 30 pips from the daily high. Although, the currency pair continues to taking bids as the U.S. dollar is getting strong and catch a safe-haven bid mainly due to on-going fears of global recession from the coronavirus outbreak. Currently, the USD/JPY pair is trading at 107.78 and consolidates in the range between the 107.36 – 108.08. 

At the greenback front, the U.S. dollar continues to gain support from its safe-haven status as continuing worries over the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic is keeping the global financial markets on their knees. The continued strong movement of the U.S. dollar lifted the pair to fresh high over the 108.00 level from the sub-107.00 level, while the bullish trend remains intact for the second consecutive session on Thursday.

At the coronavirus front, the U.K.’s death losses have recently decreased by 761 against 778 the previous day. On the other hand, the highest single-day rise by 2,371 to 30,817 in the death toll in the United States keeps the risk-off sentiment in the market.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • S1 105.75
  • S2 106.52
  • S3 106.84

Pivot Point 107.3

  • R1 107.62
  • R2 108.08
  • R3 108.85

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading with a bullish bias, and it is pretty much likely to find support around the triple bottom area of 107.039. A downward breakout of this level can extend selling until 105.300, while the resistance holds around 108.640. The MACD and 50 periods of EMA are suggesting bearish bias, while the fundamentals side is also in favor of selling. Since we the U.S. Jobless Claims, which are due during the U.S. session, traders will focus on the news to drive the next movement in the market. Hence, we should look for selling trades below 107 to target 106.630, and buying can be seen above the same 107.360 level today.  

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, April 14 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on G7 Meeting via Satellite! 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 99.49 amid thin holiday trading. The economic calendar is a bit muted, but the only focus today will be on the U.S. Labor Department will release the March import price index (-3.2% on month expected). 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 99.49 amid thin holiday trading. The economic calendar is a bit muted, but the only focus today will be on the U.S. Labor Department will release the March import price index (-3.2% on month expected). 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 99.49 amid thin holiday trading. The economic calendar is a bit muted, but the only focus today will be on the U.S. Labor Department will release the March import price index (-3.2% on month expected). 

Economic Events to Watch Today     

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD found bids and crossed above 1.09 level while representing 0.37% gains, mainly due to the recent broad-based U.S. dollar weakness after risk recovery in the market sentiment in the wake of fresh measured optimism about coronavirus outbreak. 

The fresh uptick in the oil prices and above-forecast China trade data also helping restore the risk-sentiment. At the moment, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0941 and consolidates in the range between the 1.0893 – 1.0967.

At the coronavirus front, Australia has shown very sharp declines in the virus cases as compared to other countries and also registered declines in the death toll as per the latest report. Meanwhile, India’s flow is starting to drop, as the growth rate of new cases has consecutively declined after April 6. Moreover, the discussion of easing restrictions on activity is taking attention in the U.S. and other parts of the world. 

On the other hand, the above-forecast China trade data, especially imports, which registered a growth of 2.4%, contradicting expectations for a 2.4% decline, and the uptick in the crude oil prices, is helping improve the risk sentiment. 

The EUR currency got supported by multiple factors, the figures of newly infected peoples and death toll showing a sign slowing down across the hotspots in Europe and boosted the sentient around the shared currency. The Eurogroup has reached a half a trillion euros virus rescue package gave further support to the common currency bulls.

Looking forward, the USD moves and virus updates will continue to play an important role. Traders will keep their eyes on the G7 meeting for the fresh trading sentiment.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0772
  • S2 1.0847
  • S3 1.0877
  • Pivot Point 1.0923
  • R1 1.0953
  • R2 1.0998
  • R3 1.1073

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

Last week, the EUR/USD violated the asymmetric triangle pattern, which has lead the EUR/USD prices further higher towards the next resistance level of 1.09299 area. The long-held trading range of 1.0922 – 1.0765 as it’s been already violated, and now the pair is holding above this level. 

At this moment, the EUR/USD is holding at 1.09320, having an immediate support level of around 1.09060, where the bearish breakout of this level can extend selling until the next support level of 1.0846 and 1.07990. Conversely, the resistance stays at 1.0970 and 1.1035. The MACD is tossing above and below 0, converting the bearish sentiment into bullish and vice versa. Let’s consider staying bullish over 1.0960 today. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

Today in the Asian trading hours, the GBP/USD currency pair found bids and hit the monthly high near above 1.2550, mainly due to fresh declines in the broad-based U.S. dollar in the wake of risk-on market sentiment. As well as, the latest statement that the UK PM Boris Johnson has discharged from the hospital and still recovering from coronavirus, this news also helped the pairs quote. The GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2568 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2504 – 1.2574. However, the currency pair traders did not give any major attention to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis at home because the cases are comparatively larger in the U.S.

At the U.K. Crisis front, the United Kingdoms’ coronavirus death toll rose above 11,000, but the buyers are ignoring this probably because the death toll is comparatively larger in the U.S. almost 20,000 deaths have been registered so far.

On the other hand, the reason behind the pair’s bullish moves could also be the UK PM Boris Johnson’s health recovery as Johnson left the hospital. Though, The Guardian relied on his spokesman to say that He is “focusing on recovery.”

On the negative side, there are many chances to extend the U.K. lockdown for another month. Sir Patrick Vallance, Government Chief Scientific Adviser, said that the deaths toll from coronavirus could continue to rise this week or that could last for up to 3-weeks. It is worth mentioning that Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS (National Health Services) Providers, indicates the lack of medical supplies.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • S1 1.2366
  • S2 1.2436
  • S3 1.2474
  • Pivot Point 1.2505
  • R1 1.2544
  • R2 1.2575
  • R3 1.2645

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a bullish bias over 1.2500 to trade around 1.2496 but still holds within a sideways channel. The GBP/USD sideways channel has already been violated as the GBP/USD is holding around 1.2520 and along with resistance around 1.2770. Considering the weakness in the U.S. dollar, the chances of selling remains low, but the bullish bias remains solid over 1.2500 level. 

Since the resistance level of 1.2500 has already been violated, we may see GBP/USD prices going towards the next resistance level of 1.2720. The MACD and 50 EMA are also supporting the bullish bias, so let’s consider taking buying trades over 1.2432 with a target of 1.2500 first and then buying over 1.2500 to target 1.2610. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

 the USD/JPY currency pair failed to continue its winning moves and dropped to 2-weeks low near the 107.53, mainly due to the fresh losses in the broad-based U.S. dollar in the wake of risk-on market sentiment. On the flip side, the risk-on market sentiment also weakened the Japanese yen and helped limit the downside in the currency pair, at least for the time being. 

The USD/JPY is trading at 107.69 and consolidates in the range between the 107.53 – 107.81. The reason behind the global risk-on market sentiment could also be better-than-expected Chinse trade data, which keeps the U.S. dollar U.S.wer and provided the goodish boost to the riskier currencies.

At the data front, the data showed China’s exports improved in March and fell 6-6% YoY as compared to a 17.2% slide in the previous month. Moreover, imports reversed the previous month’s decline and rose 2.4% during the reported month.

While the futures on the S&P 500 are representing a 1.27% gain at press time and the U.S. dollar U.S.ntinues to lose its momentum across the board. The dollar index, which measures the worth of the greenback against majors, is reporting a 0.30% drop. 

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • S1 106.59
  • S2 107.18
  • S3 107.46
  • Pivot Point 107.77
  • R1 108.05
  • R2 108.36
  • R3 108.95

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading with a bearish bias, and it is pretty much likely to find support around the triple bottom area of 107.039. A bearish breakout of this level can extend selling until 105.300. While the resistance holds around 108.640. The MACD and 50 periods of EMA are suggesting bearish bias, while the fundamentals side is also in favor of selling. Since we don’t have any major fundamental coming out shortly, traders will focus on the technical side and levels. Hence, we should look for selling trades below 108 to target 107.030 today.  

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, March 31 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Consumer Confidence Under Spotlight! 

On Tuesday, the market is mostly focusing on the major and medium impact economic events due to come out from the Eurozone and the United States. In the U.S., the Conference Board will publish March Consumer Confidence Index (110.0 expected). The Market News International will release March Chicago PMI (40.0 expected). S.P./Case-Shiller will report the 20-City Composite Home Price Index for January (+0.4% on month expected). 

On Tuesday, the market is mostly focusing on the major and medium impact economic events due to come out from the Eurozone and the United States. In the U.S., the Conference Board will publish March Consumer Confidence Index (110.0 expected). The Market News International will release March Chicago PMI (40.0 expected). S.P./Case-Shiller will report the 20-City Composite Home Price Index for January (+0.4% on month expected). 

On Tuesday, the market is mostly focusing on the major and medium impact economic events due to come out from the Eurozone and the United States. In the U.S., the Conference Board will publish March Consumer Confidence Index (110.0 expected). The Market News International will release March Chicago PMI (40.0 expected). S.P./Case-Shiller will report the 20-City Composite Home Price Index for January (+0.4% on month expected). 

Economic Events to Watch Today     

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD retreated 1.0% to 1.1029, snapping a five-day rally. Official data revealed that the eurozone’s Economic Confidence Index slid to 94.5 in March (91.6 expected) from 103.4 in February. 

Later today, the eurozone’s March CPI (+0.6% on-year estimated) and German jobless rate (5.1% expected, 5.0% in February) will be reported. The global equities recovered last week, as in result, the greenback weakened its bid tone and helped EUR/USD rise from 1.0636 to 1.1148. 

That was mainly due to the U.S. Federal Reserve declaring an open-ended asset purchase program, and the U.S. Senate passed a special $2 trillion fiscal relief package. 

Italy marked as the second-highest country of confirmed cases in the world after the United States (105,470). Total cases are 92,472 confirmed, marking up the highest death rate in the world. 

The eyes will be on the risk market sentiment, which could turn pro-risk, as the China data released in Asia showed the manufacturing activity recovered sharply to above-50 levels or expansion territory.

The risk-on rally could weaken the safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar and send EUR/USD higher. On the data front, the German Import Price Index for February and the Unemployment Rate is scheduled to release with the preliminary Eurozone Consumer Price Index for March. Besides this, the U.S. Consumer Confidence and the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index are also scheduled to release.

Daily Support and Resistance   

  • S1 1.0862
  • S2 1.0958
  • S3 1.1002

Pivot Point 1.1054

  • R1 1.1099
  • R2 1.1151
  • R3 1.1247

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

Technically, the EUR/USD is trading slightly bearish at 1.099, having an immediate support level of around 1.0947. The major currency pair has formed a bullish channel which is supporting the EUR/USD pair around 1.1060, and below this, the next support is likely to be found around 1.1000. 

On the higher side, the EUR/USD pair is facing resistance at 1.1150 area. Bullish crossover of 1.1060 area can open further room for buying until 1.1185 level. Whereas, the chances of a bearish bias will remain strong if the pair continues to hold below 1.1060 level today. On the lower side, the target is likely to stay at 1.0947 and 1.0885. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD dropped 0.7% to 1.2364. We haven’t seen much movement in the GBP/USD as the United Kingdom continues to struggle efforts and seems very close to open the world’s biggest hospital, which built-in 10-days. They are also ordering approximately 15,000 ventilators more while saying that it needs to cope with the coronavirus outbreak.

The global news agency, Guardian, indicates the risk for the European Union citizens who have made their houses in the U.K. illegally. Whereas, Dr. Jenny Harries, deputy chief medical officer for England, said during his daily press conference on Sunday that the current limitations and lockdowns in the U.K. could continue for six months.

At the USA front, U.S. President Donald Trump did not suggest the overall lockdown in the country and said no to nationwide stay-at-home order while helping to continue the previous day’s risk-on tone. As in result, the U.S. ten-year treasury yields and most Asian stocks flashing green and mark moderate gains by the press time.

Looking forward, the final figures of the U.K.’s fourth quarter (Q4) GDP, expected to march 0.0% initial forecast, will likely offer fresh direction ahead of the U.S. data. However, news regarding the Brexit and the virus updates will be kay to watch.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2131
  • S2 1.2256
  • S3 1.2319

Pivot Point 1.238

  • R1 1.2444
  • R2 1.2505
  • R3 1.263

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

Technically, the GBP/USD is trading sideways around within a narrow trading range of 1.2275 – 1.2425. Since the Sterling has already crossed over 1.2275 resistance area, this is now going to work as a support. The MACD is still heading into the bullish zone, suggesting strong chances of buying the GBP/USD pair.

On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair is pretty much likely to find resistance around 1.2520, along with support around 1.2278. In the case of market breaks bellow 1.2278, we may see GBP/USD prices heading into the selling zone until 1.2100 and 1.2005. Whereas, the chances of buying remains solid over 1.2275 until 1.2520.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair found on the bullish track and rose to 108.72, mainly because the risk sentiment remains positive. The slight recovery in the greenback also keeps the pair higher. Elsewhere, the traders gave a little attention to Japan’s data-dump. 

Right now, the USD/JPY is currently tradings at 108.52 and consolidates in the range between the 107.78 – 108.72. However, the currency pair also took from the U.S. policymaker’s statement.

At the data front, Japan’s February month data dump, including Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Unemployment Rate, overall flashed upbeat signals. Whereas the Retail Sales (YoY) surprised markets by crossing -1.2% forecast to 1.7%, the preliminary figures of Industrial Production (MoM) also increased above 0.1% expected to 0.4%. While the Unemployment Rate remained stable at 2.4% with Job/Applicants Ratio returning below 1.47 forecast to 1.45.

At the U.S. economic front, U.S. President Donald Trump did not suggest the total lockdown in the country and suggested no to nationwide stay-at-home order while helped to continue the previous day’s risk-on tone. As in result, the U.S. ten-year treasury yields gain 5-basis points (bps) to 0.72%, and most Asian stocks flashing green and mark moderate gains by the press time. Consequently, the USD/JPY pair is exhibiting bullish and bearish biases both. Let’s look at the technical side. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 105.89
  • S2 106.85
  • S3 107.35

Pivot Point 107.82

  • R1 108.31
  • R2 108.79
  • R3 109.76

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

Technically, the USD/JPY is trading at 108.270, heading north to examine the resistance level of around 108.615. At the moment, the USD/JPY pair is consolidating within a narrow range, where the upper limit is 108.500, and the lower limit stays at 107.150. 

The USD/JPY may face a bullish pressure in the wake of the bullish engulfing candle, which has been formed on the 4-hour chart around 108.500 area. Such a pattern represents the dominance of bulls in the market. Consequently, the bullish breakout of 108.650 resistance level can lead the USD/JPY prices higher towards 109.750 level. Until then, we should look for doing choppy trading by selling below 108.600 and buying over 107.250. All the best for today!  

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, March 30 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – German Inflation Figures Ahead! 

The U.S. Dollar Index slid 0.9% on the day to 98.36 on Friday, wiping out most of its gains made in the prior week. During the day ahead, eyes will be on the European Commission will report the Eurozone’s March Economic Confidence Index (93.1 expected) and final readings of the Consumer Confidence Index (-11.6 previously).

The U.S. Dollar Index slid 0.9% on the day to 98.36 on Friday, wiping out most of its gains made in the prior week. During the day ahead, eyes will be on the European Commission will report the Eurozone’s March Economic Confidence Index (93.1 expected) and final readings of the Consumer Confidence Index (-11.6 previously).

The U.S. Dollar Index slid 0.9% on the day to 98.36 on Friday, wiping out most of its gains made in the prior week. During the day ahead, eyes will be on the European Commission will report the Eurozone’s March Economic Confidence Index (93.1 expected) and final readings of the Consumer Confidence Index (-11.6 previously).

The German Federal Statistical Office will post March CPI (+1.4% on-year expected). The Bank of England will release the number of mortgage approvals in February (68,200 expected) and the M4 money supply.

Economic Events to Watch Today    

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD jumped 1.0% to 1.1142, posted a five-day rally. Later today, the eurozone’s March Economic Confidence Index (93.1 expected) and German CPI (+1.4% on-year estimated) will be reported.

A series of economic fundamentals drove the pair, and even today market is likely to move on news. In particular, the U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to have risen to 1,000K from the preceding week’s 281K figure in the week ended March 20. The European Union’s upcoming emergency meeting to discuss further steps to combat the virus will be essential to watch. 

Global equities recovered last week, as in result, the greenback weakened its bid tone and helped EUR/USD rise from 1.0636 to 1.1148. That was mainly due to the US Federal Reserve declaring an open-ended asset purchase program, and the US Senate passed a special $2 trillion fiscal relief package. 

At the coronavirus front, Italy marked as the second-highest country of confirmed cases in the world after the United States (105,470). Total cases are 92,472 confirmed, marking up the highest death rate in the world. 

Looking forward, the traders will keep their eyes on the Eurozone consumer and business sentiment indices, which are scheduled to release along with the preliminary German Consumer Price index for March. Apart from this, the eyes will be on the Pending Home Sales and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for taking near-term directions.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0673
  • S2 1.0835
  • S3 1.0935

Pivot Point 1.0997

  • R1 1.1097
  • R2 1.1159
  • R3 1.1321

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Monday, the direct currency pair EUR/USD is trading slightly bearish at 1.1025, having an immediate support level of around 1.0947. The major currency pair has formed a bullish channel which is supporting the EUR/USD pair around 1.1060, and below this, the next support is likely to be found around 1.1000. 

On the higher side, the EUR/USD pair is facing resistance at 1.1150 area. Bullish crossover of 1.1150 area can open further room for buying until 1.1195 level. Whereas, the chances of a bearish bias will remain strong if the pair continues to break below 1.1060 level today. On the lower side, the target is likely to stay at 1.0947 and 1.0885. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD surged 2.1% to a two-week high of 1.2457. The Bank of England (BOE) failed to offer any fireworks due to a lack of resources while disappointing U.K. Retail Sales, to 0.0% from 0.8% YoY forecast, also couldn’t recall the bears.

Guardian indicates the risk for the European Union citizens who have made their houses in the UK illegally. Whereas, Dr. Jenny Harries, deputy chief medical officer for England, said during his daily press conference on Sunday that the current limitations and lockdowns in the UK could continue for six months.

On the other hand, the United States President Donald Trump expects the virus figures to grow sharply in the next 2-weeks if they do not take lockdown seriously. As in result, the market’s risk-tone continues to flash red, with the US 10-year treasury yields declining below 0.70% and most Asian stocks marking losses by the press time.

Looking forward, the U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing and Pending Home Sales will be a key watch. Besides, the traders will also keep eyes on the virus headlines.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.1678
  • S2 1.2019
  • S3 1.2234

Pivot Point 1.236

  • R1 1.2576
  • R2 1.2701
  • R3 1.3042

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

Technically, the GBP/USD is trading sideways around within a narrow trading range of 1.2275 – 1.2425. Since the Sterling has already crossed over 1.2275 resistance area, this is now going to work as a support. The MACD is still heading into the bullish zone, suggesting strong chances of buying the GBP/USD pair.

On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair is pretty much likely to find resistance around 1.2520, along with support around 1.2278. In the case of market breaks bellow 1.2278, we may see GBP/USD prices heading into the selling zone until 1.2100 and 1.2005. Whereas, the chances of buying remains solid over 1.2275 until 1.2520.

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair just started to flashing green and rose above 108.00 level at the press time, mainly due to the broad-based greenback recovery. However, China’s rate cut by 20 basis points on early Monday and infusion of $7 billion liquidity into the banking system started to giving some support to the equity market and turns the market risk-off tone into risk-on. 

The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 108.08 and consolidates in the range between the 107.14 – 108.20. The USD/JPY pair was recently trading near 107.25 and was representing a 0.60% loss on the day, having hit a session low of 107.12 a few minutes before press time, but now the pair got boost after slight recovery came in the equity market.

The People’s Bank of China cut the seven-day reverse repo rate to 2.2% from 2.4% and injected $7 billion or 50 billion Japanese yuan into the banking system, which recently gave some support to the equity market.

Before some time, the action by China had failed to put a bid under the risky assets. The futures on the S&P 500 were keeping losses and was reporting a 1% decline on the day. Stocks in Asia were also feeling the pull of gravity with Japan’s Nikkei index was dropping 3.4%. As a result, the safe-haven Japanese yen was getting bid as safe-haven demand.

Looking forward, the currency pair may drop to their lowest level in the future, mainly due to the fears about the Japanese government may declare a state of emergency due to intensifying coronavirus fears. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 106.51
  • S2 108.16
  • S3 108.75

Pivot Point 109.8

  • R1 110.4
  • R2 111.45
  • R3 113.09

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 107.570, heading towards testing double bottom support around 107.615. For now, the pair is stuck in a narrow range, where the upper limit is 108.500, and the lower limit stays at 107.050. The USD/JPY is facing a bearish pressure in the wake of an increased number of coronavirus cases around the globe which are driving safe-haven appeal in the market.  

Consequently, the bearish breakout of 108.150 support level can lead the USD/JPY prices lower towards 105.950 level. Until then, we should look for doing choppy trading by selling below 108.400 and buying over 108.250. All the best for today!  

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, March 26 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.K. Monetary Policy In Focus! 

The greenback weakened against its major rivals, with the U.S. Dollar Index dropping 0.7% on the day to 100.94, down for a fourth straight session. For now, the focus shifts to the major economic events which will be releasing through the day. 

The greenback weakened against its major rivals, with the U.S. Dollar Index dropping 0.7% on the day to 100.94, down for a fourth straight session. For now, the focus shifts to the major economic events which will be releasing through the day. 

The greenback weakened against its major rivals, with the U.S. Dollar Index dropping 0.7% on the day to 100.94, down for a fourth straight session. For now, the focus shifts to the major economic events which will be releasing through the day. 

The Bank of England (BOE) will hold its monetary policy meeting, after a rate cut and additional bonds purchase announced last Thursday (March 19). The European Central Bank will publish the Eurozone’s M3 money supply in February (+5.2% on-year expected).

Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence Index for April will be released (7.5 expected). France’s INSEE will release March indicators on business confidence (97 expected) and manufacturing confidence (93 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today    

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD jumped 0.9% to 1.0888, posting a three-day rebound. Most of the moment, the pair was driven by a series of economic fundamentals, and even today market is likely to move on news. In particular, the U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to have risen to 1,000K from the preceding week’s 281K figure in the week ended March 20. 

If jobless claims fall in the 2 to 3 million range, which seems fairly possible, we will likely see a notable sell-off in the greenback. In that case, the EUR/USD currency pair could find a bid over the 50-day moving average at 1.10. On the other hand, the EUR/USD currency pair will also take cues from the Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity index for March. 

Meanwhile, the European Union’s upcoming emergency meeting to discuss further steps to combat the virus will be essential to watch. Markets are assuming that the Eurozone is going for a deep slowdown, and they need aggressive stimulus to stop the fallout from the virus outbreak.

Looking forward, the European Central Bank will release its monthly Economic Bulletin while the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Goods Trade Balance, and Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the U.S. will be key to watch.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0531
  • S2 1.0673
  • S3 1.0742

Pivot Point 1.0815

  • R1 1.0885
  • R2 1.0957
  • R3 1.11

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Thursday, the EUR/USD is trading bullish at 1.0935, having an immediate support level of around 1.0890. The bullish channel that you can see in the chart above is also supporting the bullish bias in the EUR/USD pair, and it’s supporting the direct currency pair at 1.0890. 

Closing of the bullish engulfing candle and three bearish two-hourly candles above 1.0890 support is signifying a bullish breakout, which can lead the pair towards 1.0959 resistance level. While the bearish breakout of 1.0890 can lead the EUR/USD prices towards 1.0780. Let’s consider staying bullish above 1.0890 today with an initial target of 1.0950. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD climbed 0.6% to 1.1833. Official data showed that U.K. CPI grew 1.7% on year in February as expected, compared with a 1.8% growth in January. Later today, the Bank of England will hold its monetary policy meeting, after a rate cut and additional bonds purchase announced last Thursday. Also, U.K. retail sales data for February will be released (+0.2% on month estimated).

The policymakers could be called with the 24-hour prior notice to vote on the coronavirus support package on Friday. On the U.S. front, the coronavirus fears in the U.S. also increased with the death losses crossed 1,000 figures and an increase of 12,000 cases recorded in the single day on Wednesday.

Later in the day, the Bank of England will hold its monetary policy meeting, after a rate cut and additional bonds purchase announced last Thursday (March 19). While the U.K. Retail Sales are expected to remain unchanged at 0.80% YoY but any major chances likely offer a new direction to the GBP/USD prices. The U.K. Office for National Statistics will report February retail sales (+0.2% on month expected).

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.1339
  • S2 1.1535
  • S3 1.1662

Pivot Point 1.1731

  • R1 1.1858
  • R2 1.1927
  • R3 1.2122

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has violated a broad trading range of 1.1400 – 1.1885, and the pair now trades around 1.1930, the level which is marked as a triple top. The Bank of England’s rate decision today will play a major role in determining it’s a trend. Today, the bullish breakout of the 1.1930 level can open the buying trend until the next resistance level of 1.2185 (38.2% Fibo level) and 1.2300 level, which accounts for a 50% retracement. On the lower side, the Cable can find support around 1.1665 and 1.1445. Let’s look for buying trades over the 1.1945 resistance level and selling below the same today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

During Thursday’s early Asian session, the USD/JPY dropped to a session low of 110.45 from the high of 111.30 after the market sentiment shifts, mainly due to the United States Congress, which failed to come together and agree on relief package plan after facing recent hurdles. While the broad-based USD weakness also undermines the currency pair. 

At the moment, the USD/JPY is trading at 110.52 and consolidates in the range between the 110.38 – 111.31. However, the safe-haven Japanese yen is continuing its bullish move, which seen in early Asia sessions due to fresh losses in the U.S. stock futures.

The risk-off market sentiment strengthened, pushing the futures tied to the S&P 500 futures lower. At press time, the index futures are reporting a 1% decline. On the other hand, the coronavirus outbreak is not showing any sign of slowing down in the U.S., Japan, and European countries. 

There was a sharp rise in cases in Tokyo and gave a warning about the lockdown, which eventually strengthing the risk-off market sentiment and boosting the safe-haven Japanese yen.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • S1 107.85
  • S2 109.43
  • S3 110.32

Pivot Point 111.02

  • R1 111.91
  • R2 112.6
  • R3 114.19

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The intensified safe-haven demand has started driving the bearish trend in the USD/JPY currency pair as it trades at 110.350, down from 111 level. On the 4 hour chart, the USD/JPY was trading in a bullish channel, which supported the USD/JPY prices around 110.650. Since this level has already been violated, now it’s going to work as a resistance for the USD/JPY. 

 

As forecasted earlier, a bearish breakout of 110.600 can lead its prices toward 109.600 level, and that’s what the market is trying to do now. The USD/JPY prices are heading towards the next support level of 109.850, and around this level, we can expect USD/JPY to bounce off a bit. However, in case of a bearish breakout of 109.850 level, the pair may drop further until 108.450. 

All the best for today!  

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

EUR/USD on a Bullish Run – Is It Going After 1.085?

The EUR/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias, bouncing off above 1.0640 level to trade at 1.0770 on the daily timeframe. Technically, the EUR/USD pair seems ready to show a bullish correction until 1.0990, but we can’t take the risk of holding swing trade considering the volatile nature of the market these days. 

The EUR/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias, bouncing off above 1.0640 level to trade at 1.0770 on the daily timeframe. Technically, the EUR/USD pair seems ready to show a bullish correction until 1.0990, but we can’t take the risk of holding swing trade considering the volatile nature of the market these days. 

The EUR/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias, bouncing off above 1.0640 level to trade at 1.0770 on the daily timeframe. Technically, the EUR/USD pair seems ready to show a bullish correction until 1.0990, but we can’t take the risk of holding swing trade considering the volatile nature of the market these days. 

So it’s better to open quick forex trading signals for 40/50 pips and then take profit to enter the next trade. Well, with that being said, I have opened a buying trade in the EUR/USD at 1.07839 with a stop loss of 1.07439 and a take profit of 1.08239. 


EUR/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.0615     1.0809

1.0529     1.0917

1.0335     1.1111

Pivot Point 1.0723

On the daily chart, the EUR/USD’s MACD is holding in the oversold zone, suggesting strong bullish correction chances. Alongside this, the EUR/USD pair has also formed a Doji candle around 1.0700, which is followed by a strong bearish trend. 

Such a pattern shows indecision among traders and typically drives bullish reversals in the market. The EUR/USD may find support around 1.0700, while resistance is likely to be found around 1.0900 and 1.099 today.

EUR/USD Trading Signal

Entry Price:  1.07839

Stop Loss: 1.07439

Take Profit 1.08239

R/R Ratio 1:1

Good luck! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, March 09 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Risk Sentiment Keeps the Market in Action! 

The U.S. Dollar Index plunged 0.9% on the day to 95.95 on Friday, as treasury yields slumped amid sinking investors’ risk appetite. The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index for March will be released (-11.4 expected). The German Federal Statistical Office will announce January industrial production (+1.6% on month expected) and trade balance (15.3 billion euros surplus expected).

The U.S. Dollar Index plunged 0.9% on the day to 95.95 on Friday, as treasury yields slumped amid sinking investors’ risk appetite. The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index for March will be released (-11.4 expected). The German Federal Statistical Office will announce January industrial production (+1.6% on month expected) and trade balance (15.3 billion euros surplus expected).

The U.S. Dollar Index plunged 0.9% on the day to 95.95 on Friday, as treasury yields slumped amid sinking investors’ risk appetite. The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index for March will be released (-11.4 expected). The German Federal Statistical Office will announce January industrial production (+1.6% on month expected) and trade balance (15.3 billion euros surplus expected).

The Bank of France will post February Industry Sentiment Indicator (95 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD climbed 0.4% to 1.1286. Official data showed that German factory orders grew 5.5% on month in January (+1.3% expected). The coronavirus breaks in China and South Korea seem to be lagging, as countries outside in the world embrace drastic steps to try and stamp out the virus. 

In Italy, where 16 million people in Lombardy and different sections of the north are presently below quarantine, there were 133 life losses announced on Sunday, drawing the sum to 366. More than 7,000 people in the country have been verified to have the disease. 

In Iran, there were 49 new deaths. Some 194 people have now expired from COVID-19 there. Although the latest numbers from China and South Korea suggest, the virus seems to be diminishing in northeast Asia.

At the data front, the German Industrial Production and the Current Account data are scheduled to release at 07:00 GMT, followed by the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence at 09:30 GMT. The German Federal Statistical Office will report January industrial production (+1.6% on month expected) and trade balance (15.3 billion euros surplus expected).

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.1016
  • S2 1.1152
  • S3 1.1221

Pivot Point 1.1288

  • R1 1.1356
  • R2 1.1424
  • R3 1.1559

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with a bullish bias around 1.1445. The EUR/USD seems to extend the bullish trend in the wake of completing the 161.8% and 261.8% Fibonacci extension level, out of which 161.8% has already been achieved until 1.1258. At the moment, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1458, and bullish breakout of this level can extend buying until 1.1610 level. On the lower side, the EUR/USD may find support around 1.1400 and 1.1296. The RSI and MACD are in the buying zone as the MACD’s histograms are over zero, the bullish zone. Consider taking buy trades above 1.1380.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD climbed 0.6% at 1.2951 to hit its highest mark in a week to the greenback. This came after the forecasts waned for an urgent Bank of England rate cut to follow this week’s emergency movement from the U.S. Federal Reserve to accommodate coronavirus damage. 

The U.S. official data showed that the economy added 273,000 non-farm payrolls in February (+175,000 expected), and the jobless rate dropped to 3.5% (3.6% expected). Average hourly earnings were up 0.3% on the month (as expected). 

January trade deficit was posted at US$45.3 billion (US$46.2 billion expected), and wholesale inventories (final reading) fell 0.4% on the month (-0.2% expected). Despite mixed economic events, the U.S. dollar is getting weaker and driving the GBP/USD pair higher. 

On Monday, the Sterling languished to a five-month low against the Euro, amidst a fresh market panic about the coronavirus outbreak that has prompted significant falls in stocks and oil.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • S1 1.281
  • S2 1.2913
  • S3 1.2981

Pivot Point 1.3017

  • R1 1.3084
  • R2 1.312
  • R3 1.3224

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Monday, the GBP/USD is showing some severe bullish moves in the wake of a weaker dollar and strong Sterling. The GBP/USD soars to trade around 1.3180 and continuation of a bullish trend can extend buying until 1.3200 and even higher. 

During the start of the day, the GBP/USD opened with a dramatic gap, but it soon recovered to fill the gap around 1.3032. Right now, the GBP/USD has formed a solid green candle on the 240 minutes timeframe, which may help drive further buying in the Sterling. The MACD is consistently forming bullish histograms over zero points, supporting the buying trend in the GBP/USD pair. Let’s consider buying over 1.3145. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and dropped to multi-year lows mainly due to the early-Asian risk-off market sentiment in the wake of coronavirus fears and fall in oil prices. However, the pair is struggled to gain its recovery of over 100 pips from the 3-year lows after downbeat GDP data and trading above mid-102.00s. The USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 102.64 and consolidates in the range between the 101.59 – 104.58 on the day.

Moreover, the U.S. yields have recovered slightly from the lows seen after the U.S. Fed’s rate cut. The 2-year yield is currently trading at 0.68%, representing a seven basis point gain on the overnight low of 0.61%, and the 10-year yield has recovered to 0.98% from $0.91%. The currency pair continued to its recent heavy losses and still trading under some heavy selling pressure for the 2nd-consecutive session on Friday.  

On the fundamental side, the headlines growth figure confirms the -1.7% market consensus versus -1.6% initial forecast. The GDP data confirms further challenges to the Asian economy due to coronavirus (COVID-19) fears that have been pushing to the quote downwards.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 109.46
  • R2: 107.99
  • R1: 107.08

Pivot Point 106.52

  • S1: 105.61
  • S2: 105.06
  • S3: 103.59

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 102.200, breaking below the bearish channel, which supports the Japanese yen at 104.400. The increased demand for safe-haven assets is driving strong bearish trends in the USD/JPY currency pairs. Recently, the USD/JPY has closed two consecutive selling candles, which are followed by the bearish breakout setup and suggesting odds of further bearish bias until 101.650. 

Selling trend continuation can lead the USD/JPY prices towards 101.670 whereas, further selling can lead the USD/JPY to 100.450 area

All the best for today!  

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, March 05 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Traders Braces for Choppy Sessions! 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded 0.2% on the day to 97.37, snapping a four-day decline, supported by better-than-expected U.S. economic data. The Research firm Markit will publish February German Construction PMI.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded 0.2% on the day to 97.37, snapping a four-day decline, supported by better-than-expected U.S. economic data. The Research firm Markit will publish February German Construction PMI.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded 0.2% on the day to 97.37, snapping a four-day decline, supported by better-than-expected U.S. economic data. The Research firm Markit will publish February German Construction PMI.

The U.S. Commerce Department will post January factory orders (-0.1% on month expected) and final readings of durable goods orders (-0.2% on month expected). The Labor Department will report initial jobless claims in the week ended February 29 (215,000 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD retreated 0.3% to 1.1138, halting a four-day rally. The European Commission warned that France and Italy could fall into a technical recession, two-quarters of economic contraction, amid coronavirus impacts. On the other hand, official data showed that the eurozone’s retail sales grew 0.6% on month in January, and German retail sales were up 0.9%, both as expected.

If the risk-on sentiment continues to boost, the selling interest around the EUR could increase. At press time, major Asian indices like Japan’s Nikkei, South Korea’s Kospi, Hong Kong’s Hang, and the Shanghai Composite index are reporting notable gains. The S&P 500 futures, however, are shedding 0.90%.

If the OPEC meeting strengthens an oil price bounce, the risk sentiment will likely increase, pushing the EUR currency and other safe-haven currencies lower. The pair is currently sidelined just below 1.1140.

Besides this, the currency pair will likely take cues from the U.S. weekly unemployment claims, Challenger Job Cuts data for February, and the 4th-quarter Unit Labor Costs figure scheduled for release during the North American trading hours. The European data docket is thin.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0955
  • S2 1.1047
  • S3 1.109

Pivot Point 1.1139

  • R1 1.1182
  • R2 1.1231
  • R3 1.1323

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD is trading sideways around 1.1179. The EUR/USD may drop to complete the bearish retracement. On the lower side, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is likely to support the EUR/USD at 1.1109, and violation of this level can drive more selling until 1.1085 which marks the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The RSI and MACD are in the buying zone but seems to take a bearish. The MACD’s histograms are becoming smaller on the buying side, which suggests the odds of selling in the EUR/USD. Consider taking buy trades above 1.1119.  

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD rose 0.5% at 1.2873. The officials from the European Union and the United Kingdom continue to oppose each other in every phase of post-Brexit trade deal talks. The Fisheries matter is the key factor for the British negotiators, and they have given a warning to the deploy Navy to safeguard the waters from the bloc’s ships if no deal is agreed by June.

It is worth to mention that the Sky News spots former business secretary Andrea Leadsom while saying that the government’s previous willingness for a possible no-deal Brexit. Which

Att he coronavirus front, the deadly virus continues to spread outside China with California recently declaring a state of emergency. However, the global policymakers struggle to control the same, and it seems to have helped the risk-tone sentiment. As in result, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields remain positive above 1%, whereas stocks in Asia are also positive by the press time.

The BOE Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak at University College London and will be key to watch for the U.K. central bank’s actions to control COVID-19 implications. However, the incoming Governor Andrew Bailey has already said that the BOE should wait for more clarity about the economic slowdown from the coronavirus outbreak before making any decision to cut interest rates ahead.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2631
  • S2 1.2734
  • S3 1.28

Pivot Point 1.2837

  • R1 1.2903
  • R2 1.294
  • R3 1.3043

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with bullish bias after having violated the horizontal resistance level of 1.2885. As suggested earlier, the GBP/USD overall trading bias remains bullish, and it’s pretty much likely to go after the next resistance level of 1.3019.

The GBP/USD’s immediate support is likely to be found around 1.2870, and below this level, the GBP/USD may aim for the 1.2760 area. The MACD and RSI are in the buying zone, supporting the bullish bias for the GBP/USD. Let’s look for long positions above 1.2837 today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair failed to maintain its overnight bullish trend and reached the fresh lower end of its daily trading range near the 107.30 level because of the greenback weakness. The USD/JPY currency pair 107.34 and consolidates in the interval between 107.0 – 107.73.

As we already mentioned that the pair failed to maintain on the previous day’s recovery move from 5-month lows and faced some fresh supply near the 107.75 regions on Thursday in the wake of subdued U.S. dollar price action.

Moreover, the U.S. yields have recovered slightly from the lows seen after the U.S. Fed’s rate cut. The 2-year yield is currently trading at 0.68%, representing a seven basis point gain on the overnight low of 0.61%, and the 10-year yield has recovered to 0.98% from $0.91%. 

As in result, the safe-haven demand for the yen has weakened in Asia. As we already mentioned that the USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 107.27, representing a 0.17% gain on the day, having hit a high of 107.52 a few minutes before press time. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 105.75
  • S2 106.93
  • S3 107.63

Pivot Point 108.1

  • R1 108.8
  • R2 109.28
  • R3 110.46

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 107.250, staying mostly outside the tight trading range of 108.400 – 107.400. It’s mostly due to the weakness in the U.S. dollar and a slight safe-haven appeal, which is triggered in the wake of Coronavirus. The pair has recovered a bit to complete retracement until 107.650. 

For now, the USD/JPY has formed a bearish series of Doji pattern over 107.013, which could trigger further selling if the 107.013 level gets violated. We need to pay attention to the USD/JPY as the closing of candlesticks below 107.013 level can provide us selling trade with a take profit of around 106.500 and 105.860.  

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, March 04 – Top Trade Setups In Forex!

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar weakened against other major currencies, dragged by the Fed’s emergency rate cut. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.2% on the day to 97.14. Most of this came in response to the U.S. Fed fund rate cut on Tuesday

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar weakened against other major currencies, dragged by the Fed’s emergency rate cut. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.2% on the day to 97.14. Most of this came in response to the U.S. Fed fund rate cut on Tuesday

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar weakened against other major currencies, dragged by the Fed’s emergency rate cut. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.2% on the day to 97.14. Most of this came in response to the U.S. Fed fund rate cut on Tuesday

Later today, February Automatic Data Processing (ADP) jobs report (+170,000 private jobs expected) and the Fed’s Beige Book economic report will be released.

February Markit U.S. Service PMI (final reading, 49.4 expected) and Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Non-Manufacturing PMI (54.9 expected) will also be reported.

Economic Events to Watch Today  

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD rose 0.4% to 1.1179, posting a four-day rally. Official economic figures revealed that the eurozone’s jobless rate was steady at 7.4% in January, and CPI grew 1.2% on year in February, both as expected.

The EUR currency performed as a safe-haven currency during the recent periods of Coronavirus. This is evident from EUR/USD’s near 90-degree surge from 1.0788 to 1.12 seen in the last 8- trading days. Therefore, the EUR currency will likely decrease further if the risk sentiment improves, allowing a big decline in EUR/USD. As in result, the futures on the S&P 500 are reporting a 1.2% gain. 

Looking forward, German and Eurozone retail sales and final German and Eurozone PMI readings will be key to watch by traders. The US ISM non-manufacturing (Feb) will take center stage. The research firm Markit will report data of February Services PMI for the eurozone (52.8 expected), Germany (53.3 expected), France (52.6 expected), the U.K. (53.3 expected), and the U.S. (49.4 expected).

The European Commission will post January retail sales (+0.6% on month expected). The German Federal Statistical Office will report January retail sales (+0.9% on month expected).

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0826
  • S2 1.0972
  • S3 1.1053

Pivot Point 1.1119

  • R1 1.1199
  • R2 1.1265
  • R3 1.1412

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading upward near 1.1179, as the pair seems to trade in the overbought zone. Bulls seem to get exhausted, and sooner or later, the EUR/USD may drop to complete the bearish retracement. On the lower side, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is likely to support the EUR/USD at 1.1109, and violation of this level can drive more selling until 1.1085 which marks the 61.8% Fibonacci level. 

The RSI and MACD are in the buying zone but seems to take a bearish. The MACD’s histograms are becoming smaller on the buying side, which suggests the odds of selling in the EUR/USD. Consider taking buy trades above 1.1119.  

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD rebounded 0.6% at 1.2823, snapping a four-day losing streak. The Markit U.K. Construction PMI climbed to 52.4 in February (49.0 expected) from 48.4 in January.

The Asian markets got supported by the decisions of the nation of fiscal measures that their Western counterparts, like the Federal Reserve, which recently delivered the rate cut. While portraying the risk-recovery, the MSCI’s gauge of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan registers 0.80% gains with Japan’s NIKKEI marking 0.40% profits by the time of writing.

Moving on, the investors will now keep their eyes on the coronavirus headlines as well as the related actions from the global policymakers for fresh impulse. 

On the economic front, final readings of the U.K. Services PMI for February, expected 53.3, followed by the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, forecast 54.9 against 55.5 prior, will be key to watch.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2559
  • S2 1.267
  • S3 1.2712

Pivot Point 1.2781

  • R1 1.2823
  • R2 1.2892
  • R3 1.3003

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is rangebound, mostly trading in between 1.2850 – 1.2750 area. However, the GBP/USD overall trading bias remains primarily bearish. So far, the pair is forming neutral candles within this range, as it seems like investors are waiting for a solid reason to determine the next trends.

The GBP/USD’s immediate support is likely to be found around 1.2755, and below this level, the GBP/USD may aim for the 1.2660 area. The MACD and RSI are in the selling zone, supporting the bearish bias for the GBP/USD. Let’s look for short-trades below 1.2781 and bull trades above the same level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing green and hit the bullish track from the 5-month lows mainly due to the uptick in the Asian equities, although, the bullish trend has been capped nearby 107.50 recently. But for now, the currency pair is currently trading at 107.59 and consolidates in the range between the 106.86 – 107.69.

At the equities front, the Major Asian indices, except Australia’s S&P/ASX 200, are reporting modest gains at press time. Asian investors seem to have taken heart from the decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates by 50 basis points, the single biggest cut in over a decade. 

Currently, Japan’s Nikkei is scoring 0.37%, and South Korea’s Kospi is up 1.4%. The Shanghai Composite index is also adding 0.14% along with a 0.80% gain in the S&P 500 futures. 

Moreover, the U.S. yields have recovered slightly from the lows seen after the U.S. Fed’s rate cut. The 2-year yield is currently trading at 0.68%, representing a seven basis point gain on the overnight low of 0.61%, and the 10-year yield has recovered to 0.98% from $0.91%. 

As in result, the safe-haven demand for the yen has weakened in Asia. As we already mentioned that the USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 107.27, representing a 0.17% gain on the day, having hit a high of 107.52 a few minutes before press time. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 105.75
  • S2 106.93
  • S3 107.63

Pivot Point 108.1

  • R1 108.8
  • R2 109.28
  • R3 110.46

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the safe-haven currency pair USD/JPY is trading at 107.550, having violated a narrow trading range of 108.400 – 107.400 due to the weakness in the U.S. dollar. However, the pair has recovered a bit to complete retracement until 107.650. The USD/JPY pair is still trading with a mixed bias around 107.555, and it has a high probability of moving towards the next support level of 107 and 1o6.65p.

We see on the 4-hour chart, the USD/JPY has created a bearish engulfing pattern under 108.350, which could trigger further selling until 107.338. We need to pay attention to the USD/JPY as the closing of candlesticks above 108.338 level can provide us with a secure buy trade with a take profit of around 109.650.  

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, March 03 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Monetary Policy Report & G7 Meeting Under Spotlight! 

The Asian session was all about the Reserve Bank of Australia, and it’s a policy decision. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate settlement at 0330 GMT was closely followed as it is the critical policy meeting since last week’s exciting change in money market pricing. The RBA has cut the interest rate by the 25-basis-point cut is all but inevitable, devising the Australian dollar exposed to a bearish bias.

The Asian session was all about the Reserve Bank of Australia, and it’s a policy decision. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate settlement at 0330 GMT was closely followed as it is the critical policy meeting since last week’s exciting change in money market pricing. The RBA has cut the interest rate by the 25-basis-point cut is all but inevitable, devising the Australian dollar exposed to a bearish bias.

The Asian session was all about the Reserve Bank of Australia, and it’s a policy decision. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate settlement at 0330 GMT was closely followed as it is the critical policy meeting since last week’s exciting change in money market pricing. The RBA has cut the interest rate by the 25-basis-point cut is all but inevitable, devising the Australian dollar exposed to a bearish bias.

The research firm Markit will publish February U.K. Construction PMI (49.0 expected). The European Commission will report February CPI (+1.2% on-year expected), January PPI (-0.4% on year expected), and jobless rate (steady at 7.4% expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD jumped 1.1% to 1.1146, the highest level since mid-January. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that ECB stands ready to “take appropriate and targeted measures,” amid risks to the economic outlook from the coronavirus epidemic.  

Later today, the eurozone’s January jobless rate (steady at 7.4% expected) and February CPI (+1.2% on-year estimated) will be reported.

Overall the risk sentiment remains mixed as the European stocks stabilized, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index edging up 0.1%. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 1.1%, and France’s CAC was up 0.4%, while Germany’s DAX dropped 0.3%.

Investor’s focus will remain on the research firm Markit which will publish February U.K. Construction PMI (49.0 expected). The European Commission will report February CPI (+1.2% on-year expected), January PPI (-0.4% on year expected), and jobless rate (steady at 7.4% expected).

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 1.1412
  • R2: 1.1265
  • R1: 1.1199

Pivot Point 1.1119

  • S1: 1.1053
  • S2: 1.0972
  • S3: 1.0826

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading upward near 1.1109, as the pair seems to trade in the overbought zone. Bulls seem to get exhausted, and sooner or later, the EUR/USD may drop to complete the bearish retracement. On the lower side, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is likely to support the EUR/USD at 1.1095, and violation of this level can drive more selling until 1.1035 which marks the 61.8% Fibonacci level. 

The RSI and MACD are in the buying zone but seems to take a bearish. The MACD’s histograms are becoming smaller on the buying side, which suggests odds of selling in the EUR/USD. Consider taking sell trades below 1.1150. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD dropped 0.4% at 1.2804, down for a fourth straight session. Bank of England governor Mark Carney said BOE is working with the government and international authorities to “ensure all necessary steps are taken to protect financial and monetary stability”. The fury of the Coronavirus has led some investors to believe central banks will be expected to go behind dovish monetary policy to underpin the economy against the potential threat of a coronavirus. 

The Sterling continues trading with a bearish bias as the interest rate cut sentiment from 0.75% to 0.50% remains pretty stable. The Sterling also places a four-and-a-half-month low during the previous week versus the greenback as concerns of the economic collapse from the extensive Coronavirus provoked a dramatic selling in with worldwide markets.

The Bank of England announced it was serving with Britain’s finance ministry and international allies to ensure “all necessary measures are exercised” to preserve the banking system and the larger economy.

The GBP/USD also faced a bearish pressure as the global influence of the Coronavirus is beginning to show on a post-election improvement in U.K’s manufacturing, which came out on Monday. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 1.3209
  • R2: 1.3015
  • R1: 1.2916

Pivot Point 1.2821

  • S1: 1.2722
  • S2: 1.2627
  • S3: 1.2432

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is consolidating in a sideways range, where the overall bias remains mostly bearish. The GBP/USD has already violated the previous narrow trading range of 1.2980 – 1.2880. On the 4-hour chart, the Cable has violated the descending triangle pattern, which is still keeping the pair under 1.2880. 

Below this level, the GBP/USD may aim for the 1.2660 area. The MACD and RSI are in the selling zone, supporting the bearish bias for the GBP/USD. Let’s look for short-trades below 1.2966 and bull trades above the same level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY rebounded 0.2% to 108.29. The safe-haven Japanese yen soared versus the greenback on Tuesday, as the traders curbed expectations for global monetary policy easing with concerns about its balance and effectiveness in fighting the economic collapse from the coronavirus break.

On Tuesday, the G7 finance diplomats and central bank directors carry a conference call later to consider steps to dispense with the outbreak and its widening economic radioactivity.

The call, which French and Italian experts, is scheduled at 1200 GMT, and with this, the traders are already betting on the sentiment that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin a series of global monetary easing.

The dollar dropped 0.5% to 107.80 yen and trimmed lower on the Swiss franc to 0.9576 francs following a report that the G7 officials are meeting to decide no fresh fiscal or monetary pledges. In the U.S., the coronavirus-related death toll has grown to six. South Korea reported a total of 4,335 cases (28 deaths), Italy 2,036 cases (52 deaths), and Iran 1,501 cases (66 deaths).

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 113.5
  • R2: 112.2
  • R1: 111.46

Pivot Point 110.9

  • S1: 110.16
  • S2: 109.6
  • S3: 108.29

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY consolidates in a narrow trading range of 108.400 – 107.400 as the weakness in the U.S. dollar and stronger Japanese yen keeps the pair tossed. The USD/JPY pair recovered slightly in the wake of a bullish correction, but more selling pressure seems to come soon. The pair is trading bearish at 107.775, and it has high probability of moving towards the next support level of 107.338.

We can see on the 4-hour chart above, the USD/JPY has formed a bearish engulfing pattern below 108.350, which may trigger further selling until 107.338. We need to keep an eye in the USD/JPY as the closing of candles above 108.338 level can help us secure a buy trade with a take profit of around 109.650.  

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 28 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for U.S. Economic Events!

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.6% on the day to a three-week low of 98.39, as the European Central Bank played down the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. Meanwhile, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said the Fed “must be prepared to rely on unconventional tools” in the event of a recession.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.6% on the day to a three-week low of 98.39, as the European Central Bank played down the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. Meanwhile, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said the Fed “must be prepared to rely on unconventional tools” in the event of a recession.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.6% on the day to a three-week low of 98.39, as the European Central Bank played down the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. Meanwhile, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said the Fed “must be prepared to rely on unconventional tools” in the event of a recession.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD surged 1.1% to 1.1001. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the Coronavirus was not yet at the stage where monetary policy response is required. On the other hand, official data showed that the Eurozone’s Economic Confidence Index climbed to 103.5 in February (102.8 expected) from 102.6 in January.

The dollar has traded near a three-month high against the Euro as worries over the outbreak of Coronavirus has driven sharp volatility in the market, mostly driving dollar prices higher. 

The Euro has tried to rally higher during the Asian trading session on Thursday but continues to encounter resistance above. We are in a strong downtrend, and the EUR/USD is exhibiting correction of that downtrend as it could lead the EUR/USD prices towards the next target level of 10925. 

The German Federal Statistical Office will report February jobless rate (steady at 5.0% expected) and CPI (+1.7% on-year expected). France’s INSEE will post final readings of 4Q GDP (+0.8% on-year expected) and February CPI (+1.5% on-year expected).

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.092
  • S2 1.0842
  • S3 1.0799

Pivot Point 1.0963

  • R1 1.1041
  • R2 1.1084
  • R3 1.1162

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is consolidating near 1.1016, as the pair seems to go further higher after violating the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0970. Chances of further buying in the EUR/USD remains pretty high until 1.1020 and 1.1065. The pair may find immediate support around 1.09540, which is mostly extended horizontal support level. The MACD and RSI still remain on the bullish side and are signaling odds of more buying in the pair. The EUR/USD may find resistance around 1.1020 and 1.1065, so let’s look for bullish trends above 1.0963.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD erased early gains to close down 0.1% at 1.2888. The British government said it might start planning for a no-deal Brexit if a trade deal with the European Union is not apparent by June.

The U.K. government is expected to publish a negotiating mandate for the future relationship with the European Union. James Slack, the Prime Minister’s spokesman, told reporters: “At the end of this year we will regain in full our political and economic independence.” On the other hand, it is reported that the government might delay its budget decision, which is scheduled for March 11, amid uncertainty over the economic outlook.

The outbreak of the Coronavirus has directed some traders to think central banks will be required to go after dovish monetary policy to support the economy against the potential threat of a coronavirus. The Sterling is still trading with a bearish bias as the interest rate cut sentiment from 0.75% to 0.50% remains pretty solid. 

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Tories succeeded December’s election, extending his hold on parliament and pushing some Brexit risk, the Sterling was trading near 83 pence per Euro, and it also gained some support against the U.S. dollar.

In the U.K., the Nationwide Building Society will publish its house price index for February (+0.4% on month expected).

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2850
  • S2 1.2812
  • S3 1.2764

Pivot Point 1.2898

  • R1 1.2936
  • R2 1.2984
  • R3 1.3022

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the GBP/USD continues trading with a mixed bias, following a narrow trading range of 1.2980 – 1.2880. As we can see on the 4-hour chart above, the Cable has formed a descending triangle pattern which is supporting the Sterling around 1.2880. It’s one of the most crucial trading levels as a violation of this can open further room for selling until 1.2795 area. Alternatively, the GBP/USD has the potential to go after 1.3070 if it manages to trade above 1.2960 support. The MACD and RSI are holding in the selling zone, supporting bearish bias for the GBP/USD pair. Let’s look for selling trades below 1.2966 and bullish above the same level today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY extended its decline to 109.30. This morning, government data showed that Japan’s jobless rate rose to 2.4% in January (steady at 2.2% expected), while industrial production grew 0.8% on month in January (+0.2% expected) and retail sales climbed 0.6% (-0.1% expected).

The Coronavirus is growing in the Middle East, Europe, and another area of the world, as Brazil verified its initial case in Latin America, while other regions of China found to lower their emergency response level as the number of new cases recorded there proceeds to reduce.

The Greenback is now trading with a slightly bearish bias amid forecasts that the U.S. Federal Reserve may lower the interest rates this year to control downside influence on the economy produced by China’s coronavirus outbreak.

The U.S. official data showed that the fourth-quarter GDP (second reading) grew 2.1% on the quarter (as expected). Durable goods orders (preliminary reading) declined 0.2% on month in January (-1.4% expected). The number of initial jobless claims rose to 219,000 in the week ended February 22 (212,000 expected). Consequently, the USD/JPY is trying to gain support in the wake of positive economic data. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 113.5
  • R2: 112.2
  • R1: 111.46

Pivot Point 110.9

  • S1: 110.16
  • S2: 109.6
  • S3: 108.29

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY continues with its bearish momentum on Friday in the wake of weakness in the U.S. dollar and stronger Japanese yen. The USD/JPY pair is holding trading dramatically bearish at 108.875, and it has high odds of going towards the next support level of 108.338. We can see on the 4-hour chart above, the USD/JPY has formed a bearish engulfing pattern below 109.650, which may trigger further selling until 108.338. We need to keep an eye in the USD/JPY as the closing of candles above 108.338 level can help us secure a buy trade with a take profit of around 109.650.  

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 21 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.K. Retail Sales In Highlights! 

On the forex front, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index advanced 0.2% on the day to 99.88, the strongest level in nearly three years, supported by broadly positive U.S. economic data. Official data revealed that the eurozone’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to -6.6 in February (-8.2 expected) from -8.1 in January, while the German GfK Consumer Confidence Index for March slipped to 9.8 (as expected) from 9.9 in February. Later today, research firm Markit will release eurozone’s February Manufacturing PMI (47.4 estimated) and Services PMI (52.3 expected).

On the forex front, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index advanced 0.2% on the day to 99.88, the strongest level in nearly three years, supported by broadly positive U.S. economic data. Official data revealed that the eurozone’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to -6.6 in February (-8.2 expected) from -8.1 in January, while the German GfK Consumer Confidence Index for March slipped to 9.8 (as expected) from 9.9 in February. Later today, research firm Markit will release eurozone’s February Manufacturing PMI (47.4 estimated) and Services PMI (52.3 expected).

On the forex front, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index advanced 0.2% on the day to 99.88, the strongest level in nearly three years, supported by broadly positive U.S. economic data. Official data revealed that the eurozone’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to -6.6 in February (-8.2 expected) from -8.1 in January, while the German GfK Consumer Confidence Index for March slipped to 9.8 (as expected) from 9.9 in February. Later today, research firm Markit will release eurozone’s February Manufacturing PMI (47.4 estimated) and Services PMI (52.3 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair continues to bearish and found near the 1.0783 ahead of the German flash service PMIs. The EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.0791 and consolidates in the range between the 1.0783 – 1.0795. Traders are cautious about placing any position ahead of the German PMIs data.

At the data front, Germany’s flash manufacturing PMI for February, scheduled to release at 0830 GMT, is seen arriving at 44.8, down from January’s final print of 45.3, whereas the index for the services sector is seen declining to 53.8 this month against 54.2 last.

The forecast for the Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI (due at 0900 GMT) shows 47.5 for February against 47.9 seen in the previous month. The Eurozone services sector PMI is seen printing a tad weaker at 52.2 in February compared to January’s 52.5 reading. Whereas, the actual figure has been mixed as, but the Flash Services PMI soared to 52.8 while economists expected a figure of 47.4.

Germany’s export-oriented sector growth has decreased sharply, mainly due to the coronavirus outbreak, a recently published Zew survey of the financial market specialists showed.

However, the slowdown fears will grow if the German data prints below expectations. As in result, the shared currency could drop further and send the EUR/USD currency pair down to 1.0750.

On the flip side, the EUR currency may get support if the German PMI betters estimates by a significant margin, while the immediate technical bias of the pair will continue to bearish as far as the pair is holding at the declining 10-day average.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0708
  • S2 1.0751
  • S3 1.0768

Pivot Point 1.0795

  • R1 1.0811
  • R2 1.0838
  • R3 1.0881

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD pair is mostly trading the same technical levels, as mentioned in the previous report. The EUR/USD pair appears to have formed neutral candles as the investors still didn’t find any solid reason to trigger bearish breakout at 1.0825 level. Today’s candle is slightly bearish, but it’s still no violating the previously placed low of 1.0775. It is pretty much likely to drive upward correction. Today, if the EUR/USD pair manages to drop below 1.0840, we may see EUR/USD prices going towards 1.0760. Let’s look for buying trade today above 1.0806. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing green and registered 1st daily close under the 100-day moving average since October. The GBP/USD currently trading at 1.2896 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2878 – 1.2899. The currency pair representing modest gains on the day, having hit the 3-month low of 1.849 on Thursday.

The preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb) is expected to print at 49.7, indicating a contraction in the activity after January’s neutral reading of 50.00. The selling interest around the GBP currency may increase if the PMI number prints below estimates. The actual results have come out and are supporting the GBP/USD pair. The U.K. manufacturing and services PMI performed slightly better than before. The Manufacturing PMI surged surprisingly to 51.3, crossing the 49.7 forecasts.

The GBP/USD pair slipped lower to test the next support level of 1.2880 and has formed bearish engulfing candle around, which is confirming the bearish breakout of 1.2974 support. Now his level is working as resistance, and it may keep the GBP/USD pair bearish. 

The GBP/USD has formed a descending triangle pattern that typically breaks on the lower side. Currently, this pattern is extending support at 1.2885, but the breakout of this level can extend selling until 1.2785 and even below this level. Therefore, 1.2885 is going to be one of the crucial trading levels. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2719
  • S2 1.2835
  • S3 1.2879

Pivot Point 1.2951

  • R1 1.2995
  • R2 1.3067
  • R3 1.3183

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On the technical side, a daily closing beyond 100-day SMA level of 1.2955 can recall 1.3000 marks to the charts whereas February 13 top surrounding 1.3070 and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3206 can entertain the buyers during further upside. 

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.2906, below the 1.2975 resistance level. Closings of candles below this level may help secure a sell trade around 1.2875, whereas, a bullish breakout of 1.2975 can lead the Cable towards 1.3070. The MACD and RSI are holding in the buying zone, supporting bullish bias for the GBP/USD pair. Let’s look for selling trades below 1.2951 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and dropped to 111.69 after the 2-days of bullish trend mainly due to the renewed risk-off market sentiment supporting the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 111.75 and consolidates in the range between the 111.69 – 112.19. However, the Japanese Yen recently boosted to the highest since April 2019 after the broad-based U.S. Dollar rally and weak Japanese data.

The global risk sentiment increased further on Friday after the World Health Organization (WHO) officials gave warning that the new coronavirus may break out globally at any time. After 2-days of heavy selling, the Japanese yen found some support from the renewed risk-off tone.

As the latest data front, Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) (YoY) for January matched 0.7% forecast, whereas National CPI ex-Food, Energy (YoY) dropped below 0.9% forecast and before 0.8%. Further, the preliminary reading of Japan’s February month Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI dropped below 49.00 estimates and 48.8 before 47.6.

The USD/JPY currency pair has now dropped below the 112.00 round-figure marks. However, the bearish trend is likely to remain warm, due to the backdrop of the recent weakness in the Japanese macro data and increasing concerns of deepening economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. Traders will now await All Industry Activity Index (MoM) data for December, prior 0.9%, for further direction.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 110.12
  • S2 111
  • S3 111.55

Pivot Point 111.89

  • R1 112.44
  • R2 112.77
  • R3 113.66

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Friday, the bullish trend of the USD/JPY continues to hit the market as the pair has surged dramatically to trade at 111.800 level. Most of the bullish trend came after the USD/JPY violated the upward channel on the daily chart. This channel was extending resistance around 111 level, and now this is going to extend support to the USD/JPY currency pair. On the upper side, the pair has the potential to go after the next resistance level of 112.300. The MACD has also started forming histogram lines above 0, signaling bullish bias for the USD/JPY pair. Let’s consider staying bearish below 112.150 today to target 111.500. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 20 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.K. Retail Sales In Highlights! 

On the forex front, U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.2% on the day to 99.59, as the Fed’s FOMC minutes confirmed that officials “viewed the current stance of policy as likely to remain appropriate for a time.”

On the forex front, U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.2% on the day to 99.59, as the Fed’s FOMC minutes confirmed that officials “viewed the current stance of policy as likely to remain appropriate for a time.”

On the forex front, U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.2% on the day to 99.59, as the Fed’s FOMC minutes confirmed that officials “viewed the current stance of policy as likely to remain appropriate for a time.”

The European Commission will release the eurozone’s January Consumer Confidence Index (-8.2 expected). The German Federal Statistical Office will report January PPI (-0.4% on year expected). The GfK Consumer Confidence Index for March will be released (9.8 expected). 

France’s INSEE will post final readings of January CPI (+1.5% on-year expected). The U.K. Office for National Statistics will report January retail sales (+0.7% on month expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair still found on the bearish track below the 1.08 handles ahead of the German data, having hit the high of 1.0815 in Asian trading hours. The EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.0798 and consolidates in the range between the 1.0792 – 1.0816. However, the traders are still struggling to keep the gains above the key hurdle ahead of the forward-looking German data. 

The currency pair got another failure to keep the pair above the 50-hour moving average located near 1.0810 during the Asian session. 

On the fundamental side, the German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey, which is scheduled to release at 07:00 GMT, is expected to show a slight decline in the consumer sentiment in March. The index is anticipated to edge lower to 9.8 from February’s 9.9 figures. 

It should be noted that the euro may take further losses and drop towards the psychological support at 1.0750 if the German GFK Consumer Confidence Survey data disappoint expectations. 

On the other hand, the currency pair may hit the corrective bounce above the 50-hour M.A., currently placed at 1.0805 if the German data cheer expectations. Moreover, Germany will also report the Producer Price Index for January at 07:00 GMT. However, that data isn’t a big market mover. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.074
  • S2 1.077
  • S3 1.0788

Pivot Point 1.08

  • R1 1.0818
  • R2 1.083
  • R3 1.0859

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD pair is mostly trading the same technical levels, as mentioned in the previous report. The EUR/USD pair appears to have formed neutral candles as the investors still didn’t find any solid reason to trigger bearish breakout at 1.0825 level. 

Today’s candle is slightly bearish, but it’s still no violating the previously placed low of 1.0775. It is pretty much likely to drive upward correction. Today, if the EUR/USD pair manages to drop below 1.0840, we may see EUR/USD prices going towards 1.0760. Let’s look for buying trade today above 1.0806. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the 7-days low and dropped to 1.2910 ahead of the Retail Sales data. The GBP/USD is trading at 1.2912 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2901 – 1.2929. However, the European Union and the United Kingdom trade war, as well as the broad-based greenback strength, is keeping the pair under pressure and sent below the 7-day low.

Whereas the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier refused the U.K.’s signal for the Canada-style trade deal with the region. He is already aware that the Toris will stand ready to criticize this move. Moreover, the U.K.’s diplomats challenged the E.U. diplomat’s demand to return the Elgin Marbles under the post-Brexit trade deal. 

On the other hand, the opposition is using all the way to reject Home Secretary Priti Patel’s latest immigration plan, whereas the European Union stuck in the budget’s tension before the 1st E.U. summit post-Brexit.

Apart from U.K. politics, the greenbacks still flashing green and keep its gains higher because not only the risk-sentiment but the upbeat data is also sending the greenback higher. According to the latest update, the coronavirus numbers again shocked markets by using the re-revised methodology. Although, this doesn’t stop negative comments from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and rating giant S&P. Eventually, these are keeping the risk sentiment off. 

It is worth to mention that the fresh easing from the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) and Australian employment data also gave support to the greenback, Moreover, the U.S. ten-year treasury yields, and Asian stocks again flashing red after rising the previous day.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2719
  • S2 1.2835
  • S3 1.2879

Pivot Point 1.2951

  • R1 1.2995
  • R2 1.3067
  • R3 1.3183

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair slipped lower to test the next support level of 1.2880 and has formed bearish engulfing candle around, which is confirming the bearish breakout of 1.2974 support. Now his level is working as resistance, and it may keep the GBP/USD pair bearish. 

Zooming out on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD has formed a descending triangle pattern that typically breaks on the lower side. Currently, this pattern is extending support at 1.2885, but the breakout of this level can extend selling until 1.2785 and even below this level. Therefore, 1.2885 is going to be one of the crucial trading levels. 

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.3036, below the 1.3065 resistance level. Closings of candles below this level may help secure a sell trade around 1.3065, whereas, a bullish breakout of 1.3065 can lead the Cable towards 1.3200. The MACD and RSI are holding in the buying zone, supporting bullish bias for the GBP/USD pair. Let’s look for bullish trades above 1.3018 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY is flashing green, but the recovery from the session lows might be temporary because the U.S. equity index futures are now flashing red. The USD/JPY is trading at 111.70 and consolidates in the range between the 111.11 – 111.72. However, the currency pair hit the 9-months high of 111.59 during the previous sessions.

The pair’s buyers are struggling to lift the pair back to 111.80, possibly due to the uptick in the U.S. equity index futures. The S&P 500 traded bullish by around 0.25% in early Asia. 

The bid tone around the currency pair was declined in the past few minutes despite China passing an interest rate cut as anticipated. During press conference time, the futures are shedding 0.25%. Moreover, the U.S. 10-year yield is also reporting a two basis point drop at 1.55%. 

It’s worth mention that the Shanghai Composite index is soaring by 0.4%. Thus, the positive action in the Chinese stocks can also help support the U.S. index futures, and therefore the USD/JPY pair may hit fresh multi-month highs even above 112. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 107.85
  • S2 109.42
  • S3 110.4

Pivot Point 111

  • R1 111.97
  • R2 112.57
  • R3 114.14

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The bullish trend of the USD/JPY continues to hit the market as the pair has surged dramatically to trade at 111.800 level. Most of the bullish trend came after the USD/JPY violated the upward channel on the daily chart. This channel was extending resistance around 111 level, and now this is going to extend support to the USD/JPY currency pair. 

On the higher side, the pair has the potential to go after the next resistance level of 112.300. The MACD has also started forming histograms above 0, signaling bullish bias for the USD/JPY pair. Let’s consider staying bullish above 111.450 today to target 112.200. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 19 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – UK CPI Surprises! 

The U.S. Empire Manufacturing Index rose to 12.9 in February (5.0 expected). Later today, January reports on housing starts (an annualized rate of 1,425,000 units expected), and producer price index (+0.1% on month expected) will be released.

The U.S. Empire Manufacturing Index rose to 12.9 in February (5.0 expected). Later today, January reports on housing starts (an annualized rate of 1,425,000 units expected), and producer price index (+0.1% on month expected) will be released.

The U.S. Empire Manufacturing Index rose to 12.9 in February (5.0 expected). Later today, January reports on housing starts (an annualized rate of 1,425,000 units expected), and producer price index (+0.1% on month expected) will be released.

European stocks were broadly lower, as the Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.4%. Germany’s DAX fell 0.8%, France’s CAC lost 0.5%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down 0.7%.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD dropped 0.4% to 1.0796, the lowest level since April 2017. The German ZEW Current Situation Index declined to -15.7 in February (-10.0 expected) from -9.5 in January. The research institute said economic development is rather fragile at the moment, and the outlook for export-intensive sectors has deteriorated particularly sharply, citing impacts of the coronavirus outbreak.

The single currency’s vulnerability has prompted by moderate or negative growth in Germany during the last year. Moreover, data from this Monday imply that the market has not yet attained its bottom, as the Bundesbank stated in its monthly statement that there are no indications the currency position is set to improve in the opening quarter of the year, while coronavirus’ risk scores a new course of risk.

The traders eagerly anticipated the German ZEW economic sentiment, which was expected to worsen to 21.5 in February against. 26.7 reported in January. As per the recent release, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany decreased sharply in February, dropping 18.0 points to a distinct reading of 8.7 points. 

The fundamental event is thus lightly beneath its December 2019 mark. The evaluation of the economic situation in Germany has also worsened when we compare it with the previous month.

Moreover, EUR/USD currency pair near-term technical outlook also shows a bearish picture, with a test of the psychological support at 1.0800 on the cards. The traders will have their sights on the coronavirus headlines for taking fresh clues.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0702
  • S2 1.0754
  • S3 1.0774

Pivot Point 1.0806

  • R1 1.0826
  • R2 1.0858
  • R3 1.091

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The pair appears to have formed neutral candles as the investors still didn’t find any solid reason to trigger bearish breakout at 1.0825 level. Today’s candle is also neutral, and it is pretty much likely to drive upward correction. Today, if the EUR/USD pair manages to drop below 1.0840, we may see EUR/USD prices going towards 1.0760. Let’s look for buying trade today above 1.0806. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD slipped 0.1% to 1.3002. Official data showed that the U.K. jobless rate was steady at 3.8% in the three months to December as expected. Earlier today, the Sterling declined during but concerns about whether the current Chancellor of Exchequer will be ready to pass the budget on time. 

A report from U.K. Prime Minister Johnson’s spokesman confirmed that the U.K. is not asking anything distinct from the E.U. in trade discussions and that they are available to negotiate. 

Besides, the market risk-tone getting worse day-by-day mainly due to the coronavirus fears, which provides support to the greenback as a safe-haven currency. Despite lowering the pace of the death toll and infected peoples in China, the uncertainty and fears still surrounding the market.

On the forecasted views, the Bank of England’s last MPR looks for the unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 3.8% for the next 3-4 months, we look for an increase to 3.9% in December (mkt 3.8%), with the potential for another pop higher in January. 

As we already mentioned that many countries had banned travelers from China, and major airlines have delayed flights, something that China’s representative to the E.U. warned was fuelling panic and threatening attempts to resume business.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.285
  • S2 1.2928
  • S3 1.2964

Pivot Point 1.3007

  • R1 1.3043
  • R2 1.3085
  • R3 1.3164

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair slipped lower to test the next support level of 1.2960 and has formed a Doji candle around this corner before taking a sharp bullish reversal. 

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.3036, below the 1.3065 resistance level. Closings of candles below this level may help secure a sell trade around 1.3065, whereas, a bullish breakout of 1.3065 can lead the Cable towards 1.3200. The MACD and RSI are holding in the buying zone, supporting bullish bias for the GBP/USD pair. Let’s look for bullish trades above 1.3018 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing green and rose to 110.08, mainly due to the uptick in the Asian stocks. As well as the sluggish data from Japan sent the pairs higher. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 110.06 and consolidates in the range between the 109.86 – 110.09. However, the risk-reset based on catalysts from China.

Stocks in China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, and Japan are printing moderate gains ranging between 0.20% and 0.60% after the latest improvement in risk-tone. Also representing the risk reset is the U.S. 10-year treasury yields that rise one basis point to 1.563% by the press time.

The fundamental reason behind the pair’s bullish moves is the release of Japan’s Machinery Order and Merchandise Trade Balance Reports. As well as the positive comments from China’s President Xi Jinping and the World Health Organization (WHO) that we have to stay relaxed. Whereas, the opposing statement from Moody’s Investors Service has been ignored.

Whereas Caixin Media Company Ltd. increased uncertainties regarding the reducing coronavirus infected people on Tuesday, the latest figures from Hubei showed a confused picture. According to the report, there are 1,693 new cases on February 18 against 1,807 of February 17. This report also suggests 132 new deaths compared to 93 recorded the previous day.

Moving ahead, China-related headlines will be the key to watch, the U.S. housing market numbers and the Producer Price Index data will also be essential to watch.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 109.26
  • S2 109.54
  • S3 109.7

Pivot Point 109.83

  • R1 109.99
  • R2 110.11
  • R3 110.4

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair has violated the sideways trading range of 110.025 – 109.500 in the wake of a stronger dollar. The couple is heading north towards the next resistance level of 110.800. On the way, the pair may find 161.8% Fibo extension resistance at 110.450. 

The RSI and MACD are crossing on the higher side, suggesting chances of further bullish bias in the USD/JPY currency pair. Alternatively, the USD/JPY can drop after testing 110.850 resistance. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 18 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Economic Events Disappoints 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was broadly flat at 99.15 amid thin holiday trading. In the U.S., the New York Federal Reserve will publish February’s Empire Manufacturing Index (5.0 expected). The National Association of Home Builders will deliver January Housing Market Index (75 expected). Let’s take a look at trade plans.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was broadly flat at 99.15 amid thin holiday trading. In the U.S., the New York Federal Reserve will publish February’s Empire Manufacturing Index (5.0 expected). The National Association of Home Builders will deliver January Housing Market Index (75 expected). Let’s take a look at trade plans.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was broadly flat at 99.15 amid thin holiday trading. In the U.S., the New York Federal Reserve will publish February’s Empire Manufacturing Index (5.0 expected). The National Association of Home Builders will deliver January Housing Market Index (75 expected). Let’s take a look at trade plans.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD traded mostly around the 1.0830 price zone, a few pips above 1.0826, the multi-year low pasted last Friday. Market participants are struggling to find a catalyst, as the European macroeconomic calendar was empty yesterday due to the U.S. Presidents’ Day holiday. 

The single currency’s vulnerability has prompted by moderate or negative growth in Germany during the last year. Moreover, data from this Monday imply that the market has not yet attained its bottom, as the Bundesbank stated in its monthly statement that there are no indications the currency position is set to improve in the opening quarter of the year, while coronavirus’ risk scores a new course of risk.

The traders eagerly anticipated the German ZEW economic sentiment, which was expected to worsen to 21.5 in February against. 26.7 reported in January. As per the recent release, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany decreased sharply in February, dropping 18.0 points to a distinct reading of 8.7 points. 

The fundamental event is thus lightly beneath its December 2019 mark. The evaluation of the economic situation in Germany has also worsened when we compare it with the previous month.

Moreover, EUR/USD currency pair near-term technical outlook also shows a bearish picture, with a test of the psychological support at 1.0800 on the cards. The traders will have their sights on the coronavirus headlines for taking fresh clues.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0795
  • S2 1.0817
  • S3 1.0826

Pivot Point 1.0839

  • R1 1.0848
  • R2 1.0861
  • R3 1.0883

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD trades near 1.0825 support level despite weaker than expected German ZEW economic sentiment data. At the moment, the pair appears to have formed neutral candles as the investors still didn’t find any solid reason to trigger bearish breakout at 1.0825 level. Today’s candle is also neutral, and it is pretty much likely to drive upward correction. Today, if the EUR/USD pair manages to drop below 1.0840, we may see EUR/USD prices going towards 1.0760. Let’s look for buying trade today above 1.0840. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD is trading sideways on Tuesday, but modest losses near the 1.3000 figure. Earlier today, the Sterling declined during but concerns about whether the current Chancellor of Exchequer will be ready to pass the budget on time. A report from U.K. Prime Minister Johnson’s spokesman confirmed that the U.K. is not asking anything distinct from the E.U. in trade discussions and that they are available to negotiate. 

Besides, the market risk-tone getting worse day-by-day mainly due to the coronavirus fears, which provides support to the greenback as a safe-haven currency. Despite lowering the pace of the death toll and infected peoples in China, the uncertainty and fears still surrounding the market.

On the forecasted views, the Bank of England’s last MPR looks for the unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 3.8% for the next 3-4 months, we look for an increase to 3.9% in December (mkt 3.8%), with the potential for another pop higher in January. As wage growth, we look for the recent pattern of deceleration to continue, with headline wage growth slowing to 3.0% y/y (mkt 3.0%), and private sector regular pay to 3.3% y/y (mkt: 3.3%). 

As the latter measure, the short-term trend growth rate has more than halved from a peak of 5.0% on a 3m/3m annualized basis in July to 2.2% as of November.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2912
  • S2 1.2965
  • S3 1.2985

Pivot Point 1.3018

  • R1 1.3038
  • R2 1.3072
  • R3 1.3125

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair slipped lower to test the next support level of 1.2960 and has formed a Doji candle around this corner before taking a sharp bullish reversal. The bullish reversal is mostly caused by robust unemployment claims data, which is in support of the Sterling. 

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.3036, below the 1.3065 resistance level. Closings of candles below this level may help secure a sell trade around 1.3065, whereas, a bullish breakout of 1.3065 can lead the Cable towards 

The MACD and RSI are holding in the buying zone, supporting bullish bias for the GBP/USD pair. Let’s look for bullish trades above 1.3018 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red dropped to 109.70 from the 109.90, mainly due to safe-haven Japanese Yen strength in the wake of intensifying coronavirus fears. The USD/JPY is currently trading at 109.75 and consolidates in the range between the 109.66 – 109.90. However, the equity market again turned in red and sending Japanese yen higher.

The futures on the S&P 500 are currently reporting a 30% drop on the day. Meanwhile, stocks in South Korea and Hong Kong are presently dropping more than 1%. Major indices like Japan’s Nikkei and China’s Shanghai Composite are reporting a 1.2% and 0.30% drop, respectively. 

Whereas, the yield on the U.S. ten-year Treasury dropped nearly 3-basis points at 1.559%. The equity market flashing red and the uptick in the anti-risk Japanese yen could be the reason for on-going concerns on the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China. 

The number of new virus cases in region China dropped below 2,000 on Tuesday for the first time since January; experts say it is too quick to say the outbreak has risen. 

On the other hand, China’s growth rate is expected to drop sharply in the 1st-quarter, while the officials seem not in favor of significant monetary stimulus. According to the MNI News, the officials have asked for a careful monetary policy action that will target only affected areas and avoid changing the current overall neutral stance. 

Looking forward, the risk-tone of the equity market may get worse, as tech giant Apple said on Monday that it would not reach its target income for the first quarter, largely because of to weaker iPhone production and softer market in China in the wake of coronavirus.


Daily Support and Resistance  

  • S1 109.6
  • S2 109.74
  • S3 109.81

Pivot Point 109.89

  • R1 109.96
  • R2 110.03
  • R3 110.18

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair is trading 110.025 – 109.500 as the demand for safe-haven assets remains in check. At the moment, the USD/JPY pair is holding below 110 resistance as it failed to violate the horizontal resistance level of 110.025. In case, the USD/JPY manages to break above 110.025 level; we may see USD/JPY prices going towards 110.350 at first and then towards 110.850. Alternatively, the USD/JPY can drop to 109.300 in case of failure to break above 110.025. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 14 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for U.S. Retail Sales!  

On Friday, the market awaits U.S. economic events, which are expected to drive some price action during the U.S. session today. The U.S. Commerce Department will report January retail sales (+0.3% on month expected) and December business inventories (+0.1% expected). 

On Friday, the market awaits U.S. economic events, which are expected to drive some price action during the U.S. session today. The U.S. Commerce Department will report January retail sales (+0.3% on month expected) and December business inventories (+0.1% expected). 

On Friday, the market awaits U.S. economic events, which are expected to drive some price action during the U.S. session today. The U.S. Commerce Department will report January retail sales (+0.3% on month expected) and December business inventories (+0.1% expected). 

The Labor Department will post the January import price index (-0.2% expected). The Federal Reserve will release January industrial production (-0.2% expected) and capacity utilization (76.8% expected). The University of Michigan will report its Consumer Sentiment Index for February (99.4 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD dropped 0.3% to 1.0842, the lowest level since April 2017. Later today, the eurozone’s fourth-quarter GDP growth will be reported (+1.0% on-year expected)

The money markets are currently pricing approximately 6-basis points of a rate cut by the end of 2020, against a zero probability seen a month earlier. On the other hand, the EUR/USD currency pair may find some bids if the German data prints better-than-expectations. Whereas, the technical bias will remain bearish until the pair does not reach above the 10-day Moving average at 1.0940.

Traders are currently waiting for the German data to take new positions. The market will also keep their eyes on Italian Trade Balance and Flash Employment Change for taking fresh cues.

Later today, official reports on January retail sales (+0.3% on month expected), industrial production (-0.2% on month expected), and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (February preliminary reading, 99.4 expected) will be released.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0767
  • S2 1.0828
  • S3 1.0851

Pivot Point 1.0888

  • R1 1.0911
  • R2 1.0949
  • R3 1.1009

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD fell dramatically to trade around 1.0841 support level, and it seems to form a Doji candle today, perhaps due to a lack of trading volume and liquidity. If this happens, we may see the bullish trend in the EUR/USD pair in the week ahead. At the same time, if the EUR/USD pair manages to drop below 1.0840, we may see EUR/USD prices going towards 1.0760. Let’s look for buying trade today above 1.0840. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD rose 0.7% on the day to 1.3046. U.K. Chancellor Sajid Javid has resigned from his position, and his deputy Rishi Sunak will succeed him. Investors speculated that this might pave the way for more fiscal stimulus.

On the other hand, the fears of coronavirus are decreasing and supporting the risk recovery. As a result, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields stay modestly down to 1.61% while stocks in Asia are marking a recovery from Thursday’s declines.

Looking forward, the lack of U.K. data will push the cable traders to keep eyes on political/Brexit headlines, as well as coronavirus update. However, the U.S. Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will entertain the momentum traders during the later part of the day.

The GBP/USD broke above 1.2950 resistance level, which is now looking to test the next resistance around 1.3045. The following support level is likely to be found around 1.2950 for now. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2888
  • S2 1.2928
  • S3 1.2944

Pivot Point 1.2968

  • R1 1.2984
  • R2 1.3008
  • R3 1.3047

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On the 4 hour timeframe, 1.3000 is the most crucial level for the GBP/USD as a violation of this level can lead Sterling prices further higher towards 1.3045 and 1.3065 in the coming week. 

The MACD and RSI are holding in the buying zone, supporting bullish bias for the GBP/USD pair. Let’s look for bullish trades above 1.3000 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY slid 0.3% to 109.75. The USD/JPY is struggling to keep their gains ahead of key U.S. data and looking toward fresh developments in the coronavirus. The USD/JPY trades around at 109.78 and consolidates in the narrow range between the 109.76 – 109.87.

According to the news from China Health Commission, the epicenter Hubei province reports 4,823 new cases on the second day of using the new diagnosing method. The number of people is in severe and critical condition, and the number rose to 9,638 from the prior figures of 7,084.

It should be noted that China’s President Xi Jinping told on Thursday that the government’s struggles are starting to have positive effects on the Chinese economy.

It is worth to mention:

1: Reports 116 new deaths.

2: Total confirmed cases rise to 51,986.

3: Number of people in serious and critical condition 9,638, from 7,084 yesterday.

4:Around the globe, a total of 65,236 cases, 1,487 deaths.

As in result, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yields initially extended the reaction to the coronavirus news to 1.39% before rebounding to 1.44%, which is where they were pre-news. 10-year yields similarly fell to 1.57% before recovering to 1.62%. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 110.63
  • R2: 110.33
  • R1: 110.21

Pivot Point 110.02

  • S1: 109.9
  • S2: 109.71
  • S3: 109.4

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Friday, the USD/JPY pair hasn’t changed much as it continues to trade with in the same trading 110.025 – 109.500. Apparently, it is due to a lack of economic events, but we may see movement during the U.S. session on the release of U.S. Retail Sales data. At the moment, the USD/JPY pair is holding below 110 resistance as it failed to violate the horizontal resistance level of 110.025.

In case, the USD/JPY manages to break above 110.025 level; we may see USD/JPY prices going towards 110.350 at first and then towards 110.850. Alternatively, the USD/JPY can drop to 109.300 in case of failure to break above 110.025. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 13 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Inflation In Highlights! 

The U.S. government reported a budget deficit of 32.6 billion dollars for January, significantly above the expected deficit of 10.0 billion dollars.

The U.S. government reported a budget deficit of 32.6 billion dollars for January, significantly above the expected deficit of 10.0 billion dollars.

The U.S. government reported a budget deficit of 32.6 billion dollars for January, significantly above the expected deficit of 10.0 billion dollars.

Later today, the Labor Department will post Consumer Price Index for January (+0.2% on month expected), and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended February 8 (210,000 expected). European stocks were broadly higher, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rising 0.6%. Germany’s DAX gained 0.9%, France’s CAC rose 0.8%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.5%.

The U.S. government bond prices eased for a second session, as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield settled higher at 1.629%.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD slid 0.4% to 1.0874, the lowest level since May 2017. Official data revealed that the Euro zone’s industrial production contracted 2.1% on month in December (-2.0% expected), the most significant decline in nearly four years.

The EUR/USD pair is prolonging the losses, and today, we are on the weakest levels since May 2017. On the news front, that is a blend of dovish ECB and concerns about retardation in the Eurozone, especially in Germany. 

In addition to this, the U.S. Fed Chair Powell kept his stand in testimonies to Congress, verifying that the Fed does not see to cut rates any time shortly. Nonetheless, the money markets proceed to price in another interest rate cut in the second half of the year.

The EUR currency will likely continue to flash red, having found acceptance under the critical support at 1.0879. Whereas, the bearish common currency could find bids if the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, which is listed to deliver at 13:30 GMT, exceeds the expectations by a significant margin. As better than expected CPI data will enable markets to price out probabilities of an additional interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 1.1009
  • R2: 1.0949
  • R1: 1.0911

Pivot Point 1.0888

  • S1: 1.0851
  • S2: 1.0828
  • S3: 1.0767

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is consolidating in a bearish zone around 1.0912 in the wake of a stronger dollar and weaker Euro. Presently, the pair is very near to the strong support mark of 1.0879, and the EUR/USD has also concluded a daily candle over this level. The pair has also formed a Doji candle accompanied by a robust bearish trend, which implies the odds of a downward reversal unto 1.0945 and 1.0980. Alternatively, the violation of 1.0925 can push buying in Euro; elsewhere, it may extend trading bearish unto 1.0880.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD marked a day-high of 1.2991 before retreating to close at 1.2955, relatively flat on the day. At the USD front, the greenback getting support as a safe-haven flows from the coronavirus fears. Moreover, the United States economy is performing almost strong, as shown last week’s nonfarm payroll report.

As in result, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields decreased nearly 3-basis points to 1.60%, whereas most of the Asian shares are also in negative territories.

Looking forward, the Brexit and political updates from the U.K., and the U.S. Consumer Price Index data for January will be the keys to watch whereas; the traders also keep their eyes on the coronavirus headlines.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 1.3047
  • R2: 1.3008
  • R1: 1.2984
    Pivot Point 1.2968
  • S1: 1.2944
  • S2: 1.2928
  • S3: 1.2888

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD broke above 1.2950 resistance level, which is now looking to test the next resistance around 1.3045. The following support level is likely to be found around 1.2950 for now. On the 4 hour timeframe, 1.3000 is the most crucial level for the GBP/USD as a violation of this level can lead Sterling prices further higher towards 1.3045 and 1.3065 in the coming week. The MACD and RSI are holding in the buying zone, supporting bullish bias for the GBP/USD pair. Let’s look for bullish trades above 1.3000 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The safe-haven-metal prices got support and representing 0.30% gains on the day mainly due to risk-off market sentiment in the wake of coronavirus intensified fears. The yellow metal is currently trading at $1,570 per Oz, representing a 0.30% gain on the day.

The coronavirus is back in action, as the latest report in coronavirus infected and dead people from Hubei registered a sharp rise due to the change in the updated diagnostic standard. The numbers mention 14,840 new coronavirus cases, with the death toll rising by 242 to 1,310 at the end of February 12, 2020.

However, the renewed coronavirus fears could be the reason behind the risk-off sentiment, caused by the big jump seen in the coronavirus cases in China. As in result, the futures on the S&P 500 are currently down 0.30%, and so is the price of WTI oil. Japan’s Nikkei is also representing a 0.10% drop. 

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is attracting bids against commodity dollars, AUD, NZD, and CAD currencies. The markets might review the historical data with the new methodology. If the trend is found to be slowing, the risk sentiment could improve, and ultimately decreasing the bid tone around the gold. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 110.63
  • R2: 110.33
  • R1: 110.21
    Pivot Point 110.02
  • S1: 109.9
  • S2: 109.71
  • S3: 109.4

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair is trading in a narrow range of 110.025 – 109.600 due to a lack of economic events during the Asian session, but we may see movement during the U.S. session on the release of CPI data. At the moment, the USD/JPY pair is looking to cross above the horizontal resistance level of 110.025. 

In case, the USDJPY manages to break above 110.025 level; we may see USD/JPY prices going towards 110.350 at first and then towards 110.850. Alternatively, the USD/JPY can drop to 109.600 in case of failure to break above 110.025. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 11 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Central Bank Speeches Ahead! 

On Tuesday, the U.S. Labor Department will post JOLTS job openings for December (6.85M expected). The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) will release January Small Business Optimism Index (103.3 expected).

On Tuesday, the U.S. Labor Department will post JOLTS job openings for December (6.85M expected). The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) will release January Small Business Optimism Index (103.3 expected).

On Tuesday, the U.S. Labor Department will post JOLTS job openings for December (6.85M expected). The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) will release January Small Business Optimism Index (103.3 expected).

The U.S. government bond prices were steady as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 1.574% from 1.578% last Friday.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD lost 0.4% to 1.0911. The eurozone’s Sentix Investor Confidence Index fell to 5.7 in February (5.9 expected) from 7.6 in January.

If Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ignores the impact of coronavirus, then the greenback may put strong bids mainly due to fewer chances of the rate cut. As in result, the EUR/USD currency pair drop further below the 1.079. 

The U.S. dollar continued its fresh rally versus the European counterpart and moved the EUR/USD pair to new 2020 lows on the first day of a new trading week. Despite a positive sentiment encompassing equity markets, concerns about the spread of the fatal coronavirus continued helping the greenback’s perceived safe-haven status and continued exerting pressure on the major.

Besides this, the currency pair will likely take clues from the Europan Central Bank head Christine Lagarde’s presentation at the European Parliament in Strasbourg at 2 pm. 

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0874
  • S2 1.0916
  • S3 1.0931

Pivot Point 1.0957

  • R1 1.0972
  • R2 1.0998
  • R3 1.104

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD collapsed beneath the horizontal support level of 1.0995, which is now working as a support level for the EUR/USD pair. Closing of candles below this 1.099 is confirming a breakout and demonstrates that this level is currently working as a resistance. It may keep the Euro bearish until 1.09374. 

On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair’s MACD is closing histograms under 0, demonstrating chances of further selling in the pair while the bearish channel is also likely to get violated until and unless Nonfarm payroll comes out better than expected. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD rebounded 0.2% to 1.2915, snapping a three-day losing streak. Later today, U.K. fourth-quarter GDP growth will be released (+0.8% on-year expected).

The U.K.’s data dump for December, including Trade Balance, Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production, will be the key to watch respecting the latest upbeat British data pushing BOE off from its bearish bias. However, the key will be the preliminary prints of the 4th-quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP). 

The growth measure is expected to decrease to 0.8% YoY from 1.1% earlier, while the QoQ GDP will shrink to 0.0% from 0.4% earlier. Moreover, the BOE’s Governor Mark Carney will also speak at the U.K. parliament and might reiterate his dislike for the Brexit. At Powell’s speech front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) chief Jay Powell will testify before Congress on Tuesday (15:00 GMT) and Wednesday. 

Whereas, the market’s traders are expecting dovish tone from the Powell mainly due to global economic slowdown in the wake of coronavirus outbreak. On the other hand, if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ignores the impact of coronavirus, then the greenback may put strong bids mainly due to fewer chances of the rate cut.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2753
  • S2 1.2831
  • S3 1.2858

Pivot Point 1.2909

  • R1 1.2936
  • R2 1.2987
  • R3 1.3065

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD broke below 1.2950 support is to test the next support level of 1.2925. It’s the most crucial level for the GBP/USD as a violation of this level can lead Sterling prices further down towards 1.2870 and 1.2830 in the coming week.  

At the moment, the GBP/USD has neutral candles below 1.2920 support level, which is suggesting a bearish trend in the GBP/USD. The MACD and RSI are holding in the bearish zone, supporting selling bias for the GBP/USD pair. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is flashing green but still below the 110 handles; the currency pair is still struggling to hit the 110 level ahead of major events. The USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.90 and consolidates in the range between 109.74 – 109.95. 

The currency pair is getting support from the improving risk-tone after China’s liquidity support and the positive report of coronavirus vaccination. Besides, the fresh developments of the virus, the focus also shifts on the U.S. yields and the Federal Reserve this week. The U.S. 2-year treasury yields fell from 1.41% to 1.38%, while the 10-year yields moved from 1.59% to 1.55%. 

The markets have been pricing in a 10% chance of a rate cut at the next Fed decision on March 18, and a terminal rate of 1.12% (vs. Fed’s mid-rate at 1.63% currently). While stock markets remain solid, with the U.S. benchmarks rising to new highs, there is an underbelly of dissatisfaction in the bond markets, which may be a warning that investors are still complacent.

Although, the risk-tone recovers mainly due to China’s liquidity support and the report came that the experts in Shanghai recently have isolated strains of the novel coronavirus, which will raise the development of vaccine and medicine against the virus. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 108.57
  • S2 109.11
  • S3 109.47

Pivot Point 109.66

  • R1 110.01
  • R2 110.2
  • R3 110.75

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair is consolidating with a bullish bias in the wake of weakening Japanese yen. The pair has crossed over 109.300 resistance level, and it seems to head towards 109.850. On Wednesday, the USD/JPY is likely to find resistance around 110.300 after violating 109.850. While support remains at 109.250. The RSI and MACD have crossed over in the buying zone and are supporting the bullish bias. Let’s look for buying trades above 109.26 today.

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 7 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for U.S. NFP Figures Today! 

On Friday, the investor’s major focus stays on the U.S. NFP data. Previously, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) jobs report showed an addition of 291,000 private jobs in January, exceeding expectations of +157,000. The Markit U.S. Services Purchasing Managers Index (final reading) expanded to 53.4 in January (53.2 expected). The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index rose to 55.5 (55.1 expected).

On Friday, the investor’s major focus stays on the U.S. NFP data. Previously, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) jobs report showed an addition of 291,000 private jobs in January, exceeding expectations of +157,000. The Markit U.S. Services Purchasing Managers Index (final reading) expanded to 53.4 in January (53.2 expected). The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index rose to 55.5 (55.1 expected).

On Friday, the investor’s major focus stays on the U.S. NFP data. Previously, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) jobs report showed an addition of 291,000 private jobs in January, exceeding expectations of +157,000. The Markit U.S. Services Purchasing Managers Index (final reading) expanded to 53.4 in January (53.2 expected). The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index rose to 55.5 (55.1 expected).

The U.S. trade deficit grew to 48.9 billion dollars in December (48.2 billion dollars deficit expected). Later today, the Labor Department will report initial jobless claims for the week ended February 1 (a drop to 215,000 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD lost 0.4% to 1.0999. Official data showed that the eurozone’s retail sales declined 1.6% on month in December (-1.1% expected). Later today, German December factory orders will be reported (+0.7% on month expected). Whereas, the Markit’s German Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing dropped to 43.7 in December from November’s 5-month high of 44.1, indicating a deeper contraction. 

Therefore, there are very few chances that Industrial Production data release on the positive track. On the other hand, the European stocks charged higher, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index gaining 1.2%. Germany’s DAX closed 1.5% higher, France’s CAC rose 0.9%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.6%.

The U.S. government bond prices sank further, as the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 1.649% from 1.603% Tuesday. The EUR/USD currency pair will also take hints from the German Trade Balance data, which is scheduled to release at 07:00 GMT. During the North American session, the focus will be on the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report for January.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0905
  • S2 1.0959
  • S3 1.0979

Pivot Point 1.1014

  • R1 1.1033
  • R2 1.1068
  • R3 1.1122

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Friday, the EUR/USD broke below the horizontal support level of 1.0995, which is now working as a support level for the EUR/USD pair. Closing of candles below this 1.099 is confirming a breakout and demonstrates that this level is currently working as a resistance. It may keep the Euro bearish until 1.09374. 

On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair’s MACD is closing histograms under 0, demonstrating chances of further selling in the pair while the bearish channel is also likely to get violated until and unless Nonfarm payroll comes out better than expected. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair its gains in the prior session, retreating 0.3% to 1.2997. The pound to dollar market rate opened lower at the open this week and has been following constant selling bias within the week. 

A minor recovery mid-week after the U.K. services PMI figures were short-lived and a dash under major support yesterday, and it confers the pair is trading at its weakest level since late December. The markets are witnessing the pre-NFP dull trading session. 

Risk-tone bears the burden of fresh fears that the coronavirus will have a longer-lasting impact on the global economies than earlier expected. With this, the U.S. 10-year treasury yields snap the previous two-day winning streak while Asian stocks also weaken.

Meanwhile, the traders are cautious about placing any position ahead of the pre-NFP trading session. In contrast, the risk-tone is still surrounding the market due to long-lasting coronavirus impact on the global economies. With this, the U.S. ten-year treasury yields close the previous two-day winning streak while Asian stocks also decline.

Looking forward, traders will keep their eyes on the Brexit headlines. However, the January month’s employment data from the U.S. will be key to watch. Whereas, the pre-NFP will remain under the trader’s radar.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2782
  • S2 1.2896
  • S3 1.2949

Pivot Point 1.301

  • R1 1.3063
  • R2 1.3123
  • R3 1.3237

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

A day before, the GBP/USD broke below 1.2950 support is to test the next support level of 1.2925. It’s the most crucial level for the GBP/USD as a violation of this level can lead Sterling prices further down towards 1.2870 and 1.2830 in the coming week.  

At the moment, the GBP/USD has neutral candles below 1.2920 support level, which is suggesting a bearish trend in the GBP/USD. The MACD and RSI are holding in the bearish zone, supporting selling bias for the GBP/USD pair. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY is flashing red and dropped below the 110 level, mainly due to greenback, which is losing its bullish momentum ahead of the pre-NFP data. The USD/JPY is currently trading at 109.97 and consolidates in the range between the 109.81 – 110.03. The currency pair registered a fresh high at 110.03 during early Asia but failed to maintain and dropped again.

We have seen a strong run in the U.S. equities despite the renewed threat of the coronavirus while the Japanese yen felt the stampede nonetheless. 

At the coronavirus front, China declared the latest update that there were an additional 73 deaths losses and 3,143 new cases of the coronavirus in China as of the end of February 6, the National Health Commission said in its daily update on Friday. This brings the total number of deaths in China to 636 and the total number of confirmed cases to 31,161.

Meanwhile, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yields consolidate in the narrow range between 1.43% and 1.47%, and 10-year yields moved between 1.63% and 1.68%. Moreover, the markets are pricing a 10% chance of a rate cut at the next Fed decision on March 18, and a terminal rate of 1.18% (vs. Fed’s mid-rate at 1.63% currently).

Looking forward, the trader’s focus will be on January nonfarm payroll and hourly earning for taking fresh direction.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 108.57
  • S2 109.11
  • S3 109.47

Pivot Point 109.66

  • R1 110.01
  • R2 110.2
  • R3 110.75

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair is trading with a bullish bias in the wake of weakening Japanese yen. The pair has crossed over 109.300 resistance level, and it seems to head towards 109.850. On Wednesday, the USD/JPY is likely to find resistance around 110.300 after violating 109.850. While support remains at 109.250. The RSI and MACD have crossed over in the buying zone and are supporting the bullish bias. Let’s look for buying trades above 109.26 today.

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 05 – Top Trade Setups In Forex -Brace for Advance NFP Figures! 

On Wednesday, January Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change (+158,000 private jobs expected), Markit U.S. Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI, final reading, 53.2 expected), Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index (55.1 expected), and December trade balance (deficit of 48.2 billion dollars expected) will be reported.

On Wednesday, January Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change (+158,000 private jobs expected), Markit U.S. Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI, final reading, 53.2 expected), Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index (55.1 expected), and December trade balance (deficit of 48.2 billion dollars expected) will be reported.

On Wednesday, January Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change (+158,000 private jobs expected), Markit U.S. Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI, final reading, 53.2 expected), Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index (55.1 expected), and December trade balance (deficit of 48.2 billion dollars expected) will be reported.

The number of verified coronavirus patients in China has exceeded 20,000, with the related death toll marking 425. Hong Kong reported that a 39-year-old man died of the coronavirus, the first confirmed fatality in the city. And Macau ordered casinos to shut their doors for 15 days.

Meanwhile, it is reported that U.S. biopharmaceutical firm Gilead’s coronavirus drug trials could begin next week.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD slipped 0.1% to 1.1044. Later today, the Eurozone’s December retail sales will be reported (-1.1% on month expected). The EUR/USD strived to rally in initial European trading sessions on Wednesday despite economic figures, which showed growth in the Eurozone economy.

The PMI numbers are out of the Eurozone, and these led to a growth in the marketplace with the industrial sector supporting while the services sector has held firmly extended. The final services PMI number arrived in at 52.5, beating the analyst forecast of 52.2, while the composite index climbed to highs not observed since August.

Furthermore, European retail sales figures will be published next. Later in the North American session, US Non-manufacturing and services PMI data will be published.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.091
  • S2 1.099
  • S1 1.1043

Pivot Point 1.107

  • R1 1.1123
  • R2 1.115
  • R3 1.123

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with a bearish bias as it is consolidating in a narrow trading range of 1.1100 – 1.1020 area. The bearish channel that we spoke about is still there, and it’s keeping the pair in a selling mode. At the moment, the EUR/USD pair is likely to face immediate support around 1.1020 level, and violation of this can lead the EUR/USD prices towards 1.0925. 

The EUR/USD pair as already retrace back 1.1098, and it has the potential to show further selling bias. On the lower side, a breakout of the support level of 1.0990 can lead EUR/USD prices towards the 1.0945 area. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD bounced 0.3% to 1.3031. The Markit Construction PMI climbed to 48.4 in January (47.1 expected) from 44.4 in December.

In the U.S., the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will report January private jobs report (+158,000 jobs expected). The Commerce Department will release the November trade balance (48.2 billion dollars deficit expected). The Institute for Supply Management will post its Non-manufacturing Index for January (55.1 expected).

Looking forward, all traders will keep their eyes on the final figures of the U.K. Services PMI for January. The Key activity gauge is expected to remain unchanged at 52.9. However, any surprise upside may convert the early-day losses into recovery.

The U.S. economic calendar also has some critical data like employment, activity, and trade that are likely to justify the greenback’s strength. In this regard, We forecast the ISM non-manufacturing index to increase slightly to 55.3 in Jan after an already-strong 54.9 print in Dec, because the Phase One deal should give a marginal boost to sentiment. On the other hand, we anticipate a strong surge in ADP employment for Jan at 230k, up from 202k.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2795
  • S2 1.2901
  • S1 1.2966

Pivot Point 1.3006

  • R1 1.3071
  • R2 1.3112
  • R3 1.3218

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD bounced off to trade at 1.3050 after testing the lower limit of a trading range, which is 1.2980. As you can see in the chart, the GBP/USD pair is still maintaining a narrow trading range of 1.3220 to 1.2980. 

At the moment, the GBP/USD has formed a bullish engulfing candle above 1.2980 support level, which is suggesting a bullish trend in the GBP/USD until 1.3100. On the lower side, a bearish breakout of 1.2980 level can extend selling until 1.2945 today. Let’s look for sell trades only below 1.3100 level and buying above the same today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY was flashing green and rose to 108.60 overnight, mainly due to the risk sentiment improved in the global markets as coronavirus priced in. The greenback strength is also sending the pair higher. The USD/JPY is moving around 109.41 and consolidates in the range between the 109.37 – 109.59.

The commodity complex was firmer despite a bullish U.S. dollar, which rose around 0.2% on the day. Looking to Dr. Copper, ongoing liquidity operations from the PBoC is supporting to improve risk sentiment, and prices here were above $5,680 at some stage, +2.3% (Copper prices are a common benchmark for assessing the global market’s risk profile, usually strong when risk-on, weak when risk-off).

The market risk sentiment will likely be disturbed again due to coronavirus intensifying fears. At least 490 people in China died from the coronavirus infection, officials said on Wednesday. Also, the number of confirmed cases of infection rose to 24,324, up from 425 deaths and 20,438 confirmed cases the day before. 

There are still plenty to be concerned for, and the price of oil is compelling, sliding further overnight to a low of $49.41bbls. Chinese oil demand is already dropped by 20% because of dwindling air travel, road transportation, and manufacturing.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 107.62
  • S2 108.44
  • S1 108.98

Pivot Point 109.26

  • R1 109.81
  • R2 110.09
  • R3 110.91

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

Since the safe-haven appeal is diminishing, the USD/JPY pair is trading with a bullish bias in the wake of weakening Japanese yen. The pair has crossed over 109.300 resistance level, and it seems to head towards 109.850. On Wednesday, the USD/JPY is likely to find resistance around 110.300 after violating 109.850. While support remains at 109.250.  

The RSI and MACD have crossed over in the buying zone and are supporting the bullish bias. Let’s look for buying trades above 109.26 today.

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 04 – Top Trade Setups In Forex -U.S. Factory Orders! 

Hong Kong, the government has closed more border checkpoints connected to China, while the city’s medical workers continued a strike demanding the closing of all such checkpoints.

Hong Kong, the government has closed more border checkpoints connected to China, while the city’s medical workers continued a strike demanding the closing of all such checkpoints.

Hong Kong, the government has closed more border checkpoints connected to China, while the city’s medical workers continued a strike demanding the closing of all such checkpoints.

Regarding U.S. economic data, the Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (final reading) rose to 51.9 in January, above 51.7 expected. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.9 in January, beating 48.5 expected. Monthly construction spending fell 0.2% on month in December, missing expectations of +0.5%.

Later today, the U.S. Commerce Department will report December factory orders (+1.2% on month expected), and durable goods orders (final reading, +2.4% expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD climbed higher late last week but has grappled with continuing the skyward trend in the early week. The revival in the EUR/USD that took place lately may have been the effect of trades squaring before the month-end.

The single currency euro is sensitive to changes in risk sentiment as it is usually employed as a funding currency. Nevertheless, it is less sensitive when we compare it with the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, which are generally known as safe-haven currencies.

Considering the idea of risk appetite, both the RBA (Reserve bank of Australia) and the BOJ (Bank of Japan) kept the rates steady today. Some traders may have assumed a little more of a dovish stance from policymakers after the increase in the Coronavirus break during the previous week.

Regarding U.S. economic data, the Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (final reading) rose to 51.9 in January, above 51.7 expected. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.9 in January, beating 48.5 expected. Monthly construction spending fell 0.2% on month in December, missing expectations of +0.5%.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.091
  • S2 1.099
  • S1 1.1043

Pivot Point 1.107

  • R1 1.1123
  • R2 1.115
  • R3 1.123

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading in a narrow trading range of 1.1100 – 1.1040 area, as it continues to maintain the downward channel. Right now, the pair is likely to face immediate support around 1.1040 level, and violation of this can lead the EUR/USD prices towards 1.0925. 

The EUR/USD pair as already retrace back 1.1098, and it has the potential to show further selling bias. On the lower side, a breakout of the support level of 1.0990 can lead EUR/USD prices towards the 1.0945 area. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD plunged from 1.5% to 1.2997. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson rejected Europe Union chief negotiator Michel Barnier’s demand to respecting the bloc’s regulations under a trade deal. On the other hand, the Markit Construction PMI for January will be released later today (47.1 expected).

The latest risk recovery came possibly due to the Chinese officials’ that struggle to satisfy the traders and halt short-selling in the stock market. While Asian equities and the U.S. 10-year treasury yield recovers from Monday’s fall. Nevertheless, the increasing losses of coronavirus contagion keep the risk on the cards.

The total death losses have increased to 425, and the number of confirmed cases has risen to more than 20,000 due to coronavirus.

Looking forward, the final figures of the U.K. Construction PMI, which is expected to be 46.6 against 44.4, will be the key economic figure to watch on Tuesday. While markets are expecting no significant surprises in data, risk catalysts may lead to near-term GBP/USD pair movements.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2679
  • S2 1.2864
  • S1 1.293

Pivot Point 1.3049

  • R1 1.3114
  • R2 1.3234
  • R3 1.3418

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is consolidating in a narrow trading range of 1.3220 to 1.2980. Earlier today, the GBP/USD pair tried to break below 1.2985 support level, but it failed to continue its bearish momentum. 

Right now, 1.3220 is supporting the pair, and it’s very much likely to drive the bullish trend in the GBP/USD until the breakout occurs. Whereas, the bearish breakout of this level can extend selling until 1.2945 today. 

Let’s look for sell trades only below 1.2980 level and buying above the same today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair found on the bullish track and rose to 108.78, mainly due to an uptick in the Asian stocks, but the pair is still trading below the 100-day Moving Average. The USD/JPY currency pair is currently consolidating at 108.75 and consolidates in the range between the 108.55 – 108.78. Notably, the pair has hit a low level of 108.55 an hour ago.

The reason behind the bullish sentiment in the pair could be the uptick in the S&P 500 futures and the Asian equity markets. China’s Shanghai Composite Index is scoring 0.65% at press time. 

On the front of the latest reports, the total death losses have increased to 425, and the number of confirmed cases has risen to more than 20,000 due to coronavirus.

It is worth to mention that Moody’s Investors Service responded on the increasing risks to chinas credit rating in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. Whereas, the global rating giant announced expected drops in the consumption and its credit implications as the main catalysts.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 107.87
  • S2 108.25
  • S1 108.47

Pivot Point 108.64

  • R1 108.85
  • R2 109.02
  • R3 109.4

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair is trading with slightly bullish bias after testing the support level around 108.500. The USD/JPY is maintaining the upward channel, which is keeping the safe-haven currency bullish. 

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY is likely to find resistance around 109.250, which is the same level that provided support to the USD/JPY earlier. We can see selling below this level until 108.520. 

Furthermore, the RSI and MACD have crossed over in the buying zone and are supporting the bullish bias. Let’s look for buying trades above 108.950 today.

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 03 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – ISM Manufacturing PMI In Focus! 

Regarding U.S. economic data, personal income grew 0.2% on month in December, below expectations of +0.3%, personal spending declined 0.3% in December (as expected).

Regarding U.S. economic data, personal income grew 0.2% on month in December, below expectations of +0.3%, personal spending declined 0.3% in December (as expected).

Regarding U.S. economic data, personal income grew 0.2% on month in December, below expectations of +0.3%, personal spending declined 0.3% in December (as expected).

The Market News International Chicago Business Barometer dropped to 42.9 in January, lower than 49.0 forecasts, and marking the lowest number since December 2015. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (final reading) rose to 99.8 in January, exceeding 99.1 expected.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD advanced 0.6% to 1.1094. The official data revealed that the eurozone’s 4th-quarter GDP grew 1.0% on year (+1.1% estimated), while core CPI rose 1.1% in January (+1.2% expected). Research firm Markit will post final readings of January Manufacturing PMI for the eurozone (47.8 expected), Germany (45.2 expected), France (51.0 expected), the U.K. (49.8 expected), and the U.S. (51.7 expected).

Looking forward, the breakout will likely be severe if the US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) releases better-than-expected by a significant margin. By the way, the data is scheduled to release at 14:45 GMT. The currency pair may also take directions from the final German and Eurozone PMI numbers for January and speech by ECB’s De Guindos and German Bundesbank’s Weidmann. 

Besides, the U.S. Commerce Department will report construction spending in December (+0.5% on month expected). The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) will release its manufacturing index for January (48.4 expected). The WARD’s Automotive Group will report vehicle sales in the U.S. (16.8 million units expected).

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.091
  • S2 1.099
  • S1 1.1043

Pivot Point 1.107

  • R1 1.1123
  • R2 1.115
  • R3 1.123

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Monday, the EUR/USD hasn’t changed much than before as it continues to trade at 1.1020 area, testing the downward channel around 1.0990. It also marks a triple bottom level of around 1.0990. 

The EUR/USD pair may retrace back a bit until 1.1045 and 1.1065 before showing further selling bias. The EUR/USD can show bullish correction until 1.1060 and 1.1075 if it manages to stay above 1.0990. On the lower side, a breakout of the support level of 1.0990 can lead EUR/USD prices towards the 1.0945 area. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD jumped 0.8% to 1.3201, the highest level since January 01. Sterling accelerated distinctly higher late last week following the Bank of England unchanged interest rates decisions. Nevertheless, the pair is seen under pressure in the early day to wipe out Friday’s gain.

The final figures of January month British Manufacturing PMI, as well as the U.S. market Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI, will be key to watch. 

As per the British PMI, the activity gauge is expected to confirm the initial 49.8 marks but will likely boost the GBP currency pair if it manages to cross 50.00. Besides this, U.S. numbers may provide better results and could strengthen the greenback.

Manufacturing figures out of both Europe and the U.K. gave indications of stabilizing and potential for additional recovery. Markit described the purchasing managers’ index in the U.K. for the manufacturing area to rise to 50, taking it out of a recession. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2937
  • S2 1.3054
  • S1 1.313

Pivot Point 1.3171

  • R1 1.3247
  • R2 1.3288
  • R3 1.3405

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is peaking out of the symmetric triangle pattern, which was keeping the pair supported above 1.2961 along with resistance at 1.3050. For now, the pair may find resistance around the double top pattern around the 1.3155 area. The pair is very likely to trade with in the same range due to a lack of related economic events. However, a bullish breakout of 1.3150 level can cause a bullish trend in the GBP/USD prices until 1.3256. 

On the lower side, the support prevails at 1.2961 and 1.2900. Taking a look at the MACD and RSI, both are holding in the selling zone, and are supporting the concept of selling. Keeping this in mind, we can go for selling trade below 1.306 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair continues to flash red and hit the lowest level of 108.30 since early January, mainly due to the risk-off market sentiment in the wake of intensified fears of coronavirus outbreak. As d writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 108.50 and consolidates in the range between the 108.31 – 108.58.

On the news front, the Fears of coronavirus outbreak have increased stronger during the weekend because the numbers of affected peoples crossed 14,300, whereas the death losses rose above 300. Apart from the coronavirus, there is another virus that occurred in Hunan that name is H5N1 bird flu virus.

It should be noted that China’s market opened again for trading for the first time since January 23, which was closed due to the extended Lunar New Year holidays, but now its time to end the holidays. As we all well aware that during the holidays there have many changes came in the wake of coronavirus. Moreover, the coronavirus has pressurized the investors. 

However, the disease caused more than 300 lives in China and has affected 14,380, according to a report from China’s state broadcaster CCTV on Sunday. Whereas, the virus crossed SARS that threatened markets in 2002/03, while another reason behind the intensifying tension is an outbreak of the deadly H5N1 bird flu in a field in the Shuangqing area of Shaoyang City.

The Chinese government has wasted the New Year celebrations to save the peoples from the virus. However, Vice Governor of Hubei Province, where the infection started, conveyed his worries and poured cold water on the government’s efforts.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 107
  • S2 107.8
  • S1 108.07

Pivot Point 108.59

  • R1 108.87
  • R2 109.38
  • R3 110.18

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair continues to maintain the sideways trading range of 109.250 – 108.850. The pair is still holding within the upward channel, which is keeping the trading sentiment bullish. The USD/JPY may find resistance around 109.250, which is the same level that provided support to the USD/JPY earlier. We can see selling below this level until 108.520. Moreover, the RSI and MACD have crossed over in the selling zone and are supporting the selling bias. Let’s look for selling trades below 109.150 today.

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 31 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on Canadian GDP!

The U.S. stocks erased early losses to close higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 124 points higher (+0.4%) at 28859, the S&P 500 added 10 points (+0.3%) to 3283 and the Nasdaq Composite was up 23 points (+0.3%) to 9298.

The U.S. stocks erased early losses to close higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 124 points higher (+0.4%) at 28859, the S&P 500 added 10 points (+0.3%) to 3283 and the Nasdaq Composite was up 23 points (+0.3%) to 9298.

The U.S. stocks erased early losses to close higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 124 points higher (+0.4%) at 28859, the S&P 500 added 10 points (+0.3%) to 3283 and the Nasdaq Composite was up 23 points (+0.3%) to 9298.

The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remained subdued as it drifted lower to 1.545% from 1.593% Wednesday. Let’s take a look at trade ideas for today.

 

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD gained 0.2% to 1.1028. Official data showed that the German jobless rate was steady at 5.0% in January (as 5.0% expected). On the other hand, the eurozone’s fourth-quarter GDP growth will be released (+1.2% on-year estimated).

On the flip side, if the Retail Sales Data release disappoints expectations, then bears could try to cross the convincing break below 1.10. The U.S. Commerce Department reported that fourth-quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.1% on quarter, in line with expectations. Initial jobless claims declined to 216,000 in the week ended January 25, slightly higher than expected.

Looking forward, the trader’s eyes will be on the Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 4th-quarter and the U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income numbers as well. Whereas, the German Retail Sales is key to watch.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0961
  • S2 1.0993
  • S1 1.1013
  • Pivot Point 1.1026
  • R1 1.1045
  • R2 1.1059
  • R3 1.1091

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Friday, the EUR/USD hasn’t changed much than before as it continues to trade at 1.1020 area, testing the downward channel around 1.0990. It also marks a triple bottom level of around 1.0990. 

The EUR/USD pair may retrace back a bit until 1.1045 and 1.1065 before showing further selling bias. The EUR/USD can show bullish correction until 1.1060 and 1.1075 if it manages to stay above 1.0990. On the lower side, a breakout of the support level of 1.0990 can lead EUR/USD prices towards the 1.0945 area. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD rebounded 0.5% to 1.3086, snapping a five-day decline. The Bank of England held its benchmark rate at 0.75% unchanged as expected, while the number of officials who supported a rate-cut remained at two. 

It should be noted that the United Kingdom Prime Minster wants a deal with the European Union like Canada-style, but nothing has confirmed yet. The risk has seen again in the market in the wake of mixed headlines regarding China’s coronavirus. The World Health Organization finally had released a notification for a global emergency but later gave some hope that coronavirus will likely be controlled soon.

Looking forward, there will be many celebrations and sad farewell gatherings during the day ahead; the Tory leader’s speech, which is scheduled to happen during the day, will gain significant attention because all traders considerably wait for this. If the U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson says anything about future trade relations with the European Union, a surprise hint will be taken seriously. 

On the other hand, the U.S. economic calendar has many data, including Chicago PMI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which will entertain the traders during the day.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2795
  • S2 1.2928
  • S1 1.3011

Pivot Point 1.306

  • R1 1.3143
  • R2 1.3193
  • R3 1.3326

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is peaking out of the symmetric triangle pattern, which was keeping the pair supported above 1.2961 along with resistance at 1.3050. For now, the pair may find resistance around the double top pattern around the 1.3155 area. The pair is very likely to trade with in the same range due to a lack of related economic events. However, a bullish breakout of 1.3150 level can cause a bullish trend in the GBP/USD prices until 1.3256. 

On the lower side, the support prevails at 1.2961 and 1.2900. Taking a look at the MACD and RSI, both are holding in the selling zone, and are supporting the concept of selling. Keeping this in mind, we can go for selling trade below 1.306 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing green and crossed the 109.00 level mainly due to the slight risk recovery in the wake of upbeat Chinese services sector data. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.11 and consolidates in the range between the 108.88 – 109.14 day’s range.

However, the data was an improvement and a pleasant surprise. Whereas, the Chinese State Bureau said this was taken before some of the recent heightened coronaviruses headlines. The PMI survey was taken before January 20; it means that the result of the coronavirus is not fully shown.

Meanwhile, U.S. stocks closed in the green territory but were still down for the week so far. Positive earnings were a factor. However, USD/JPY will likely continue to flash green in the wake of risk-on sentiment, and U.S. yields continue to print lower lows. U.S. 2-year Treasury yields dropped from 1.41% to 1.37% but then back to 1.40% whereas UST ten-year yields dropped from 1.58% to 1.53% (a fresh four-month low), but then bounced to 1.57%.

Markets are expecting a slight chance of a rate cut at the next Fed decision on March 18, but a terminal rate of 1.10% (vs. Fed’s mid-rate at 1.63% currently). This comes after a slightly dovish tilt from, Jerome Powell, FED’s governor, who is stating his concerns over the persistently low inflation below the target of 2%. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 107.99
  • S2 108.42
  • S1 108.69

Pivot Point 108.85

  • R1 109.12
  • R2 109.28
  • R3 109.71

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Friday, the USD/JPY pair continues to maintain the sideways trading range of 109.250 – 108.850. The pair is still holding within the upward channel, which is keeping the trading sentiment bullish. The USD/JPY may find resistance around 109.250, which is the same level that provided support to the USD/JPY earlier. We can see selling below this level until 108.520. Moreover, the RSI and MACD have crossed over in the selling zone and are supporting the selling bias. Let’s look for selling trades below 109.150 today.

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 30 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for BOE Policy!

The U.S. stock indexes pared most of the early gains to close little changed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared higher 11 points to 28734, the S&P 500 declined 2 points to 3273, and the Nasdaq Composite added 5 points to 9275. 

The U.S. stock indexes pared most of the early gains to close little changed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared higher 11 points to 28734, the S&P 500 declined 2 points to 3273, and the Nasdaq Composite added 5 points to 9275. 

The U.S. stock indexes pared most of the early gains to close little changed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared higher 11 points to 28734, the S&P 500 declined 2 points to 3273, and the Nasdaq Composite added 5 points to 9275. 

The Bank of England will declare its interest rates decision (hold at 0.75% expected). The European Central Bank will post the January Economic Confidence Index (101.8 expected) and final readings of the Consumer Confidence Index (-8.1 previously).

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD was broadly flat at 1.1015. The GfK Consumer Confidence Index for February rose to 9.9 (9.6 expected) from 9.7 in January.

The data is listed to deliver at 08:55 GMT is expected to show the German economy added 5K jobs in December after November’s 8K raises. Meantime, the Unemployment Rate is anticipated to have remained stable at 5%. 

During the North American session ahead, the attention will shift to the US Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q4) PREL, scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT. 

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates stable as anticipated on Wednesday. Chair Powell brought up concerns regarding inflation, which suggests another rate cut can’t be fully controlled out at this time. 

Powell further informed about the potential for an improvement in the global market following the current development in the US-China trade war but revealed anxieties over the Coronavirus outbreak. Powell noted that if China’s economy deteriorates as a result of the virus, the U.S. economy will also be affected, although not at the same level as some of China’s bordering countries.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0963
  • S2 1.0989
  • S1 1.1006

Pivot Point 1.1015

  • R1 1.1031
  • R2 1.104
  • R3 1.1066

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.1001 area, having formed a bearish engulfing candle around 1.0991 support level, particularly on the 4-hour timeframe. The bearish engulfing pattern is suggesting the probabilities of a bearish trend in the EUR/USD.

The EUR/USD can show bullish correction until 1.1060 and 1.1075 if it manages to stay above 1.0990. On the lower side, a breakout of the support level of 1.0990 can lead EUR/USD prices towards the 1.0945 area. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD slipped 0.1% to 1.3022, posting a five-day losing streak. The BOE is anticipated to keep its rate at 0.75% unchanged, while investors will watch closely whether there would be more officials to vote for an interest-rate cut (2 out of 9 members supported a rate cut previously).

Looking forward, there are 50-50 chances of announcing a rate cut by the Bank of England. Whereas the central bank is expected to keep the rate unchanged, meanwhile one MPC is anticipated to vote in support of a rate cut. However, Governor Carney’s speech will be closely watched afterward. 

After that, the preliminary reading of U.S. Q4 GDP will be in the trader’s eyes. The growth rate of the world’s largest economy is likely to stabilize around 2.1%. However, the latest Fed meeting indicated downside risk and hinted to stay ready for surprises. The Bank of England will publish its interest rates decision (hold at 0.75% expected).

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2853
  • S2 1.2937
  • S1 1.2982

Pivot Point 1.3021

  • R1 1.3066
  • R2 1.3105
  • R3 1.3189

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is stuck in a symmetric triangle pattern, which is keeping the pair supported above 1.2961 along with resistance at 1.3050. Since all eyes remain in the Fed rate decision, it will be nice to wait for the outcome to have a better idea about the trend. 

The bearish breakout of 1.2961 support can lead the GBP/USD prices towards 1.2900. Taking a look at the MACD and RSI, both are holding in the selling zone, and are supporting the concept of selling. Keeping this in mind, we can go for selling trade below 1.3021 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and hit the 5-day low, representing 0.12 drops on the day mainly due to risk-off sentiment in the wake of persistent Coronavirus-led. As well as, the Japanese yen got support from the risk-off market sentiment as a safe-haven currency. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 108.93 and consolidates in the range between the 108.84 – 109.06.

As in result, the Asian stocks are again flashing red with Japan’s Nikkei leading the way with a 400 point or 2% decline. Stocks in Australia, South Korea, and Hong Kong are also reporting losses alongside the 0.5% drop in the futures on the S&P 500. 

At the dealy virus front, the market attention shifted again to China’s coronavirus because the death losses rose to 170, and forecasts spread that China will refresh 20-year low due to the disease. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary was said a few minutes before press time, that 6 Japanese people, who recently come back from Wuhan China, have infected by the coronavirus. 

Apart from this, another reason behind the market’s risk-off sentiment could the US-China trade tension because the White House has recently refused to help China regarding tariffs even if coronavirus weighs on its GDP.

Because the risk-off sentiment showing no signs of decreasing, the pair risks increasing the losses toward the 50-day average support at 108.72 more so, as traders have hoped for the Fed rate cut by November’s meeting. The U.S. FED kept rates constant on Wednesday but gave expectation for delivering further rate cut in the wake of higher inflation.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.14
  • S2 108.59
  • S1 108.87

Pivot Point 109.03

  • R1 109.31
  • R2 109.48
  • R3 109.93

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

A couple of days ago, the safe-haven pair USD/JPY violated long-held horizontal support level has already been violated at 109.250 level, and now, the USD/JPY is holding below this level. At the same level, the USD/JPY is also getting supported by the bullish channel, which can be seen in the chart above. 

The USD/JPY may find resistance around 109.250, which is the same level that provided support to the USD/JPY earlier. We can see selling below this level until 108.520. Moreover, the RSI and MACD have crossed over in the selling zone and are supporting the selling bias. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 29 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on Federal Reserve Rate Decision! 

The forex traders are keeping their eyes on the Fed Fund Rate and Monetary Policy decisions, which are likely to drive some major price action in the market.  

The forex traders are keeping their eyes on the Fed Fund Rate and Monetary Policy decisions, which are likely to drive some major price action in the market.  

The forex traders are keeping their eyes on the Fed Fund Rate and Monetary Policy decisions, which are likely to drive some major price action in the market.  

The U.S. Commerce Department reported that durable goods orders (preliminary reading) increased 2.4% on month in December, much better than +0.4% expected. The C.B. Consumer Confidence Index surged to 131.6 in January (128.0 expected) from 128.2 in December.

Economic Events to Watch Today

  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD was flat at 1.1018. Later today, the GfK Consumer Confidence Index for February will be released (9.6 expected). Although, the currency pair could hit the below level of 1.10 in the European session if the forward-looking German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Feb) release below the estimate of 9.6. 

By the way, the data is scheduled for release at 07:00 GMT. As well as, the German Import Price Index will also hit the wires at 7:00 GMT. In Germany, the GfK Consumer Confidence Index for February will be released (9.6 expected). France’s INSEE will release January Consumer Confidence Index (102 expected).

As we all well aware that the EUR currency was poorly beaten last week, possibly due to the European Centra Bank’s President Christine Lagarde spoke unexpectedly dovish.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0963
  • S2 1.0989
  • S1 1.1006

Pivot Point 1.1015

  • R1 1.1031
  • R2 1.104
  • R3 1.1066

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.1001 area, having formed a bearish engulfing candle around 1.0991 support level, particularly on the 4-hour timeframe. The bearish engulfing pattern is suggesting the probabilities of a bearish trend in the EUR/USD. The Fed rate decision will be helping us determine further trends in the EUR/USD. 

The EUR/USD can show bullish correction until 1.1060 and 1.1075 if it manages to stay above 1.0990. On the lower side, a breakout of the support level of 1.0990 can lead EUR/USD prices towards the 1.0945 area. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD lost 0.2% to 1.3035, sliding for a fourth straight session.

At the Brexit side, the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s immigration efforts are continuing to getting mixed responses with the ‘Australian-style’ immigration vision getting hit by the independent Migration Advisory Committee (MAC).

The U.S. Commerce Department will report December goods trade balance (65 billion dollars deficit expected) and wholesale inventories (+0.1% on month expected). The National Association of Realtors will issue pending home sales in December (+0.5% on month expected).

Looking forward, chances of the Bank of England’s (BOE) next move are standing on the confusing track due to recently mixed data and Brexit concerns, as well as Governor Carney’s dovish tone. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 1.3189
  • R2: 1.3105
  • R1: 1.3066

Pivot Point 1.3021

  • S1: 1.2982
  • S2: 1.2937
  • S3: 1.2853

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is stuck in a symmetric triangle pattern, which is keeping the pair supported above 1.2961 along with resistance at 1.3050. Since all eyes remain in the Fed rate decision, it will be nice to wait for the outcome to have a better idea about the trend. 

The bearish breakout of 1.2961 support can lead the GBP/USD prices towards 1.2900. Taking a look at the MACD and RSI, both are holding in the selling zone, and are supporting the concept of selling. Keeping this in mind, we can go for selling trade below 1.3021 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY found on the bullish track mainly due to the mixed headlines from China. By the way, the par having hit the high of 109.30 and currently dropped to 109.12. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.13 and consolidates in the range between the 109.00 – 109.30. Although traders are also preparing for today’s Federal Open Market Committee.

At the BOJ front, the Bank of Japan said that it should maintain low rate policy bias because it must be careful to risk Japan’s economy may lose momentum for hitting inflation. The statement also said to coordinate with govt’s fiscal policy, structural measures.

Whereas China’s promised to kill the coronavirus soon triggered the recent risk recovery, increasing the rate of death cases and newly infected cases keep risk-off sentiment in the market. 

As in result, the U.S. ten-year treasury yields remain mostly directionless around 1.65%, after bouncing off the early October lows on Tuesday, whereas S&P 500 Futures lose 0.1% to 3,275 by the press time.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • S3 108.14
  • S2 108.59
  • S1 108.87

Pivot Point 109.04

  • R1 109.31
  • R2 109.48
  • R3 109.93

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

A couple of days ago, the safe-haven pair USD/JPY violated long-held horizontal support level has already been violated at 109.250 level, and now, the USD/JPY is holding below this level. At the same level, the USD/JPY is also getting supported by the bullish channel, which can be seen in the chart above. 

The USD/JPY may find resistance around 109.250, which is the same level that provided support to the USD/JPY earlier. We can see selling below this level until 108.520. Moreover, the RSI and MACD have crossed over in the selling zone and are supporting the selling bias. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 28 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for U.S. C.B. Consumer Confidence! 

A day before, the U.S. stock indexes slid over 1% as the coronavirus outbreak in China intensified. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 453 points (-1.6%) to 28535, the S&P 500 dropped 51 points (-1.6%) to 3243, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 175 points (-1.9%) to 9139.

A day before, the U.S. stock indexes slid over 1% as the coronavirus outbreak in China intensified. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 453 points (-1.6%) to 28535, the S&P 500 dropped 51 points (-1.6%) to 3243, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 175 points (-1.9%) to 9139.

A day before, the U.S. stock indexes slid over 1% as the coronavirus outbreak in China intensified. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 453 points (-1.6%) to 28535, the S&P 500 dropped 51 points (-1.6%) to 3243, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 175 points (-1.9%) to 9139.

Shares in Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-3.91%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (-2.83%) and Energy (-2.76%) sectors lost the most.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

EUR/USD slipped 0.1% to 1.1018. The German IFO Business Climate Index unexpectedly fell to 95.9 in January (97.0 estimated) from 96.3 in December, and the Expectations Index dropped to 92.9 (94.8 expected) from 93.9. The EUR currency was beaten badly last week, possibly due to the European Centra Bank’s President Christine Lagarde spoke unexpectedly dovish.

Looking forward, the shared currency will likely continue its bearish bias during the week ahead because the safe-haven U.S. treasuries are putting the bids in the wake of Coronavirus fears. The buying sentiment around the greenback may increase further if the United States Durable Goods release better-than-expected, by the way, this data is scheduled to release at 13:30 GMT on Tuesday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.095
  • S2 1.0993
  • S1 1.1009

Pivot Point 1.1035

  • R1 1.1051
  • R2 1.1078
  • R3 1.112

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.1026 area, having formed a Doji candle above 1.1015 support level, particularly on the 4-hour timeframe. The bullish Doji pattern is suggesting the probabilities of a bullish and bearish trend both in the EUR/USD. The German Ifo Business Climate reported worse than expected figures falling below economists’ expectations of 96.3. 

The EUR/USD can show bullish correction until 1.1060 and 1.1075. On the lower side, a breakout of the support level of 1.1015 can lead EUR/USD prices towards the 1.0945 area. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD fell 0.2% to 1.3058, posting a three-day decline. The GBP/USD pair touched a daily high of 1.3105 but withdrew from that level later to conclude the day in a bearish mode, just a few pips above its intraday low of 1.3039. 

The GBP/USD has placed a little drop for another day, as the GBP/USD sees itself jus over the crucial 1.30 mark, which has psychological importance. Presently, the GBP/USD is holding at 1.3027, soaring 0.23% on the day. There are no significant GBP related economic events on the calendar.

 The Bank of England is holding it’s monetary policy conference this Thursday, and there are 50-50 possibilities of a rate decrease. Several MPC members have indicated that they would propose a rate cut, and there’s solid speculation that Governor Carney may want to drop the rate before giving his seat. Also, Brexit will finally happen this Friday, after over three years of back and forth.

At the Brexit front, another reason behind the risk-off market sentiment could be the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit trade talks between the United Kingdom and the Europan Union. Moreover, the Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said that the European Union would have the leading authority in Brexit talks that may miss the deadline. In contrast, the U.K. politicians also not interested in respecting their old neighbors after got public support in the latest general election.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2937
  • S2 1.3002
  • S1 1.303

Pivot Point 1.3067

  • R1 1.3095
  • R2 1.3133
  • R3 1.3198

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has violated the symmetric triangle pattern, which is now keeping the pair support around the 1.3065 area. Closing of Doji candle above this level is likely to keep the GBP/USD bullish until 1.3170. Above 1.3170, the GBP/USD may go after the next resistance level of 1.3160. Whereas, a bearish breakout of 1.3065 can lead the GBP/USD prices towards 1.2975. The RSI and MACD support a mixed bias. Let’s look for selling trades below 1.3102 and bullish trades above 1.3044. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the three-week lows and registered the 8-day losing streak, mainly due to the fears of China coronavirus, which has recently destroyed trade market sentiment. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.06 and having dropped to 108.90 at the starting of the Asian session. By the way, the pair consolidates in the range between the 108.83 – 109.06.

The United States data came in mixed, whereas tensions in the Middle East also weighed on the market’s performance. At the Coronovirus front, the statement came from China’s health officials that the Coronavirus could be much more dangerous than earlier thought. As we know, this perilous virus has killed almost 100 lives, and more than 30,000 are infected so far in China. Meanwhile, the United States has advised all citizens not to travel to China.

On the other hand, diplomats in the U.S. and Iran ignore Iraq’s peace requests because Iran prepares for a satellite while the Trump administration joins side with France to make Irans’ act like a normal country.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.4
  • S2 108.89
  • S1 109.08

Pivot Point 109.37

  • R1 109.56
  • R2 109.85
  • R3 110.33

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair has violated long-held horizontal support level has already been violated at 109.250 level, and now, the USD/JPY is holding below this level. At the same level, the USD/JPY is also getting supported by the bullish channel, which can be seen in the chart above. 

Technically, the USD/JPY may find resistance around 109.250, which is the same level that provided support to the USD/JPY earlier. We can see selling below this level until 108.520. Moreover, the RSI and MACD have crossed over in the selling zone and are supporting the selling bias. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 27 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Safe Haven Appeal Soars! 

The Friday major U.S. stock indexes closed in negative territory as the coronavirus outbreak in China intensified. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 170 points (-0.6%) to 28989, the S&P 500 fell 30 points (-0.9%) to 3295, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 87 points (-0.9%) to 9314.

The Friday major U.S. stock indexes closed in negative territory as the coronavirus outbreak in China intensified. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 170 points (-0.6%) to 28989, the S&P 500 fell 30 points (-0.9%) to 3295, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 87 points (-0.9%) to 9314.

The Friday major U.S. stock indexes closed in negative territory as the coronavirus outbreak in China intensified. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 170 points (-0.6%) to 28989, the S&P 500 fell 30 points (-0.9%) to 3295, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 87 points (-0.9%) to 9314.

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD edged up to 1.1030, while GBP/USD fell to 1.3058. The coronavirus outbreak continues to dent market sentiment, with Canada and Australia confirming their first cases of the virus over the weekend.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its longest weekly losing trend since November 2018 ahead of German IFO data. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1029 and consolidating in the range between the 1.1021 – 1.1037.

As we know, the currency pair represented 0.26% losses last week as the EUR currency faced selling pressure on the same day. That was mainly due to the European Central bank was seen more dovish after President Lagarde said that the risks to the economy have turned to the downside.

After that, the German PMI figures were released better-than-expected but failed to give some bids to the EUR currency. However, the EUR/USD currency pair has been moving in a bearish trend since the last week of January. At the data front, expectations are on the peak that the German IFO reading for January will hit the highest level since June 2019. 

Whereas the headline German business climate index was expected to rise to 97.2 (mkt 97.0), its highest level since June, but it came as 95.9 and weighed on Euro currency.

The shared currency continued its downward movement after the release of weaker than expected German Ifo Business Climate, which indicated a slowdown in the German economy. The short-run technical bias is expected to remain bearish until or unless the prices trade below the ascending trend line. 

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • S3 1.095
  • S2 1.0993
  • S1 1.1009

Pivot Point 1.1035

  • R1 1.1051
  • R2 1.1078
  • R3 1.112

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.1026 area, having formed a Doji candle above 1.1015 support level, particularly on the 4-hour timeframe. The bullish Doji pattern is suggesting the probabilities of a bullish and bearish trend both in the EUR/USD. The German Ifo Business Climate reported worse than expected figures falling below economists’ expectations of 96.3. 

The EUR/USD can show bullish correction until 1.1060 and 1.1075. On the lower side, a breakout of the support level of 1.1015 can lead EUR/USD prices towards the 1.0945 area. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashed red and continued its 3-day losing rally mainly due to China’s coronavirus outbreak & hard Brexit fears. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3062 and is consolidating in the range between the 1.3052 – 1.3079. 

At the Brexit front, the representative of the European Union and the United Kingdom are trying to expand the indirect fears regarding hard Brexit. The Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay said that they would publish their objectives for the negotiations in due course after leaving E.U. on January 31. He also said that the U.K. would have control over its rules, and it would not diverge for the sake of diverging but would start from a position of alignment. 

On the other hand, British Home Secretary Priti Patel repeated this morning that Britain would diverge from Brussels after leaving E.U. despite warnings from European Union that they could rule out a free trade deal.

On the other hand, the European Union has already given a warning to the UK PM Boris Johnson that he will fail if he tries to use the support of a U.S. trade deal to strike better terms with Brussels.

At the China front, fears of China’s coronavirus explosion have threatened the global risk sentiment by crossing national boundaries and possibly affected more than 30,400 people within a few days.

As a result, the U.S. ten-year treasury yields fell to multi-week low while surrounding 1.63%, whereas most of the Asia-Pacific stocks also representing the risk-off sentiment in the wake of holidays in China and Australia.

Looking forward, traders will closely watch the 2nd-tier U.S. data on the economic calendar before Thursday’s monetary policy meeting by the Bank of England (BOE), which will show a final chance for rate change in the wake of mixed data. After that, the EU-UK will formally be departed at 21:00 GMT on January 31, 2020.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2865
  • S2 1.2984
  • S1 1.3028

Pivot Point 1.3102

  • R1 1.3146
  • R2 1.322
  • R3 1.3338

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has violated the symmetric triangle pattern, which is now keeping the pair support around the 1.3065 area. Closing of Doji candle above this level is likely to keep the GBP/USD bullish until 1.3170. 

Above 1.3170, the GBP/USD may go after the next resistance level of 1.3160. Whereas, a bearish breakout of 1.3065 can lead the GBP/USD prices towards 1.2975. The RSI and MACD support mixed bias. Let’s look for selling trades below 1.3102 and bullish trades above 1.3044. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair was found on the bearish track and dropped heavily on the day because the Japanese yen picked up a bid in the wake of bad news regarding the China coronavirus fears threatened the market risk sentiment. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.05 and is consolidating in the range between the 108.73 and 109.11.

At the China front, fears of China’s coronavirus have threatened the global risk sentiment by crossing national boundaries and possibly affecting more than 30,400 people within a few days.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled to happen during this week, and traders are keeping their eyes on the Federal Reserve rate decision. The agreement surrounding the Federal Reserve is of a neutral stance with much of the hard work done last year, and traders are expecting stability in the monetary policy for now.

As a result, the U.S. ten-year treasury yields fell to a multi-week low while surrounding near 1.63%. In contrast, most of the Asia-Pacific stocks are also representing the risk-off sentiment in the market on the back of holidays in China and Australia.

A report came in that Singapore has reported four cases of the coronavirus that has killed 80 people in China so far, and the numbers look to be increasing with the time. As in result, most currencies are under pressure due to risk-off market sentiment; on the other hand, the safe-haven currencies like Japanese yen are looking bullish.


Daily Support and Resistance    

  • S3 108.4
  • S2 108.89
  • S1 109.08

Pivot Point 109.37

  • R1 109.56
  • R2 109.85
  • R3 110.33

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair has violated long-held horizontal support level has already been violated at 109.250 level, and now, the USD/JPY is holding below this level. At the same level, the USD/JPY is also getting supported by the bullish channel, which can be seen in the chart above. 

Technically, the USD/JPY may find resistance around 109.250, which is the same level that provided support to the USD/JPY earlier. We can see selling below this level until 108.520. Moreover, the RSI and MACD have crossed over in the selling zone and are supporting the selling bias. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 24 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Busy Friday Ahead! 

The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.2% on the day to 97.69. The EUR/USD slid 0.4% to 1.1055, the lowest level since early December. The European Central Bank left its monetary policy steady (deposit facility rate at -0.50%). ECB President Christine Lagarde said there are signs of a moderate increase in underlying inflation, and the downside risks to the growth outlook are less pronounced. Later today, research firm Markit will release Eurozone January Manufacturing PMI (46.8 expected) and Services PMI (52.8 expected).

The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.2% on the day to 97.69. The EUR/USD slid 0.4% to 1.1055, the lowest level since early December. The European Central Bank left its monetary policy steady (deposit facility rate at -0.50%). ECB President Christine Lagarde said there are signs of a moderate increase in underlying inflation, and the downside risks to the growth outlook are less pronounced. Later today, research firm Markit will release Eurozone January Manufacturing PMI (46.8 expected) and Services PMI (52.8 expected).

The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.2% on the day to 97.69. The EUR/USD slid 0.4% to 1.1055, the lowest level since early December. The European Central Bank left its monetary policy steady (deposit facility rate at -0.50%). ECB President Christine Lagarde said there are signs of a moderate increase in underlying inflation, and the downside risks to the growth outlook are less pronounced. Later today, research firm Markit will release Eurozone January Manufacturing PMI (46.8 expected) and Services PMI (52.8 expected).

The U.S. Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims climbed to 211,000 in the week ended January 18, lower than 214,000 expected. The Conference Board Leading Index declined 0.3% on month in December (-0.2% expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair is moving on the bearish track, after hitting the 7-weeks low of 1.1036 yesterday after the European Central Bank President Lagarde told during her conference that the risk to the Eurozone growth was still on the negative side. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1050 and is consolidating in the range between the 1.1047 – 1.1058.

Looking forward, Germany’s Markit Manufacturing PMI for January is expected to increase by 44.5 in January from December’s 43.7, while Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI for January is expected to release as 46.9 against December’s 46.3.

It is worth to mention that the published Below-Forecast figures would confirm Lagarde’s concerns about downside risks to the Eurozone economy and increase the selling pressures on the EUR currency. As a result, the EUR/USD currency pair may test support at 1.0981 (November 29 low).

On the positive side, the common currency will likely to get bids if the PMI numbers exceed the estimation by a significant margin, although the bearish outlook would be canceled only if the pair succeeds to close above Thursday’s high of 1.1109.

As well as, the EUR/USD currency pair may also take directions from the ECB President Lagarde’s speech, which is scheduled to happen at 10:30 GMT and from the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, which is scheduled to publish at 14:45 GMT.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0922
  • S2 1.0994
  • S1 1.1025
  • Pivot Point 1.1067
  • R1 1.1097
  • R2 1.1139
  • R3 1.1212

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.1036 area, having formed a series of Doji candles pattern above 1.1030 support level, particularly on the 4-hour timeframe. The bullish Doji pattern is proposing the odds of a bullish and bearish trend both in the EUR/USD. The recent manufacturing and services PMI economic events have performed really well and these may help support the EUR/USD currency pair today. 

The EUR/USD can show bullish correction until 1.1060 and 1.1075. On the lower side, a breakout of the support level of 1.1037 can lead EUR/USD prices towards the 1.0945 area. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair stopped the Thursday losses and recovered slightly, possibly due to the positive trade headlines. But the traders are looking careful ahead of the preliminary readings of January month’s PMI for fresh impulse. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3123 and is consolidating in the range between the 1.3113 – 1.3128.

On the front of Brexit, the leading news was that the Queen’s Royal approval had been given to the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Departure Agreement Bill (WAB). Now the United Kingdom is trying to make a trade deal with the United States and Japan before leaving the European Union.

 However, the United Kingdom Chancellor Sajid Javid gave a positive statement to satisfy the industries after his previous comment about the fear of hard Brexit. He assured that the U.K. would use the power to diverge from E.U. rules only when it would be in the interest of British business.

 Even after, the fears of the United States tariff cannot be decreased because the Tories Party gave permission to China’s Huawei Company to take part in 5G, whereas the Trump administration has repeatedly given notices against such action.

Moreover, United States President Donald Trump earlier warned to impose tariffs on the United Kingdom if it fines the digital service tax to major search engines like Facebook and Google.

More importantly, the European Union (E.U.) leaders are keeping the head high before the EU-UK trade discussions. The situation will continue to weigh on the risk tone. On the other hand, China’s explosion of coronavirus already gave the major shock to the global risk sentiment.

Looking forward, preliminary readings of January month PMIs from the U.K. and the U.S. will be the key to watch, whereas the recent increase in the U.K.’s earnings and CBI data have decreased the chances of the BOE’s easing. So, traders will keep their eyes on the PMIs for fresh directions.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3023
  • S2 1.3073
  • S1 1.31
  • Pivot Point 1.3123
  • R1 1.315
  • R2 1.3174
  • R3 1.3224

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has traded sideways in the wake strong dollar and strong Sterling. The GBP gained bullish momentum on the release of better than expected manufacturing figures which hurt the BOE’s interest rate cut sentiment. 

At the moment, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3090 as it has violated the symmetric triangle pattern on 4 hourly charts. It seems to extend its bullish bias after retracing back to the 1.3080 level.

The GBP/USD pair may find support around the 1.3044 area today. Whereas, the RSI and MACD support the mixed bias. Let’s look for selling trades below 1.3123 and bullish trades above 1.3044. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashed green and recovered from the low of 109.27 to 109.58 because Japanese yen lost ground despite the upbeat Japanese inflation data. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.53 and is consolidating in the range between the 109.44 – 109.58.

At the data front, Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.7% in December from a year earlier after November’s 0.5% rise. The headline CPI rose 0.8%, bettering the forecast of 0.4% by a big margin.

The inflation data was published at 23:30 GMT but did not find a bid tone around the Japanese yen so far. Ultimately, inflation remained well away from the central bank’s elusive 2% target despite the acceleration from the previous month.

At the BOJ front, the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) December monetary policy meeting minutes were released a few minutes before press time and repeated the need for continued easing. As well as, most bank members agreed that it was right to continue easing consistently. The central bank has been operating an ultra-easy policy for almost above seven years, so its rate cut bias has been priced for long ago.

The Japanese yen could find bids tone if the equities remain risk-averse on coronavirus fear. As of January 23, there were 830 confirmed cases in China. Whereas, the futures on the S&P 500 are currently reporting marginal gains.

               

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.7
  • S2 109.09
  • S1 109.29
  • Pivot Point 109.47
  • R1 109.68
  • R2 109.86
  • R3 110.24

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair has finally violated the double bottom level of 109.850, which is now leading the currency pair towards the next support level of 109.185. Technically, the USD/JPY may find resistance around 109.850, which is the same level that provided support to the USD/JPY earlier. We can see selling below this level until 109.250. Moreover, the RSI and MACD have crossed over in the selling zone. Today, I will be looking for selling trades below 109.850 and selling above 109.250 level. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 23 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – ECB Interest Rate In Highlights! 

The European Central Bank will deliver its interest rates decision (deposit facility rate expected to be unchanged at -0.50%). The European Commission will release the eurozone’s December Consumer Confidence Index (-7.0 expected).

The European Central Bank will deliver its interest rates decision (deposit facility rate expected to be unchanged at -0.50%). The European Commission will release the eurozone’s December Consumer Confidence Index (-7.0 expected).

The European Central Bank will deliver its interest rates decision (deposit facility rate expected to be unchanged at -0.50%). The European Commission will release the eurozone’s December Consumer Confidence Index (-7.0 expected).

The U.S. Labor Department will post initial jobless claims in the week ended January 18 (215,000 expected). The Conference Board will release its December Leading Index (-0.2% on month expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair is moving flat and consolidating in the narrow range between the 1.1070 – 1.1120 ahead of the European Central Bank’s decision regarding rates. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1085. The pair have not attempted any move out of the range 1.1070 – 1.1120 since January 17.  

The European Central Bank is likely to keep interest rates and other essential policy tools unchanged. As we know, the ECB had delivered rate cut by ten basis points to -0.5% in September 2019. Moreover, the Bank also restarted bond purchases in October.

It is worth to mention that the purpose of Thursday’s meeting would be to announce the official strategy review, which would redefine its mission and tools. The Bank would also set the scope and parameters for the review, which could gain the attention of traders.

Moving ahead, the EUR currency will likely put strong bids if the speech of ECB President Lagarde decreases the chances of the possible change in the sense of the price stability and methods to achieve it.

On the other hand, the German economy is flashing green in the wake of optimism surrounding the United States and China trade deal. As we already mentioned that the EUR currency might pick up bid if Lagarde focuses on recent positive data, and confirm the need for more effort toward the economy.

On the negative side, the EUR currency could be subject to selling pressure if the Lagarde ignores the recent German/Eurozone economic recovery and focus more on the downside risks. Furthermore, any sign regarding Bank planning to adopt a higher inflation target in the future will likely push the EUR currency lower.


Daily Support and Resistance           

  • S3 1.1031
  • S2 1.1059
  • S1 1.1076
  • Pivot Point 1.1087
  • R1 1.1105
  • R2 1.1116
  • R3 1.1144

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Thursday, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1086 area, having formed a series of Doji candles pattern above 1.1070 support level, particularly on the 4-hour timeframe. The bullish Doji pattern is proposing the odds of a bullish and bearish trend both in the EUR/USD as it depends upon the ECB rate decision. 

The EUR/USD can show bullish correction until 1.1106. On the lower side, a breakout of the support level of 1.1077 can lead EUR/USD prices towards the 1.1045 area. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair was flashing red, and it failed to continue its three-day bullish rally despite the United Kingdom’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal victory regarding Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB). As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3015 and is consolidating in the range between the 1.3119 – 1.3152.

On the front of the leading news, despite seeing 5-amendments from the House of Lords, the Tory leader/UK PM Boris Johnson has passed his WAB Bill through the Parliament (without modification) in the wake of majority support. As of now, the bill will get the royal approval within 9-days to become law.

Whereas, the hard Brexit fears continue to surround the market. That is due to the European Union chief Von der Leyen saying that the United Kingdoms’ position would be weakened in the single market if it does not continue to sign up the European Union rules and regulations after Brexit withdrawal. The E.U. chief also said that the trade talks would start from February, after considering that there could be a further delay until March.

Moreover, the pair could weaken further in the wake of the U.S. threat to impose the sanctions if the United Kingdom moves forward in its punitive measures to impose digital service tax on search engines like Google and Facebook. Whereas France backed out after the warning from Washington and agreed with the U.S. to develop an international framework for digital taxation at the OECD level, but both disagree on ways to shape it.

At the China front, fears of a Chinese virus explosion and noises surrounding the US-China trade deal, as well as the U.S. President Donald Trump’s impeachment hearings, all are keeping the market under pressure.

As a result, the U.S. ten-year treasury yields remained under pressure around 1.75%, while the Asian stocks also gave mixed trade sentiment.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2879
  • S2 1.2994
  • S1 1.3067
  • Pivot Point 1.311
  • R1 1.3182
  • R2 1.3225
  • R3 1.3341

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD is testing the resistance level, which is extended by the bearish channel at 1.3060. At the moment, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3060, and it seems to extend its bullish bias until 1.3090.

The GBP/USD pair may find support around the 1.3044 area today. Whereas, the RSI and MACD support the bullish bias. Let’s look for selling trades below 1.3080 and bullish trades above 1.3010. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair failed to cross the 110.00 range and is still trading on the bearish track below the 110.00 level, mainly due to the risk-off market sentiment in the wake of global coronavirus spread. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.55 and is consolidating in the range between the 109.50 – 109.86.

As we already mentioned, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to break the 110 handles because of the lack of events to distract the market attention from the virus fears as well as Trump’s impeachment trial. Whereas the U.S. stock markets had mixed sentiment and without the full commitment from U.S. dollar traders, the prices finally dropped.

The virus has killed 17 people so far in China, and leaders have almost closed Wuhan and also keeping the focus on the other nation to understand the cause behind the virus. By the way, the virus is known to be humanly transmitted. As a result, market risk-tone has severely disturbed.

At the Sino-US trade font, the U.S. has decided to reduce some part of its tariffs on Chinese products on this Valentines’ Day, as agreed in the phase-one deal, which resulted in ease in the uncertainty about the impact of the US-China deal on global financial markets.

Although the trade and geopolitical fears have been pushing the markets off lately, the rising trade optimism has given a cool tone to the market. Despite that, the U.S. ten-year treasury yields remained weak, around 1.77%, whereas global equities have also shown mixed results.

Looking forward, the Investors will keep their eyes on Japan’s trade figures, All Industry Activity Index, and Leading Economic Index, as well as the news headlines, to further invest in the market. On the negative side, a possible recovery in Japanese Yen will likely keep the pair under pressure. And on the positive side, the BOJ Governor’s overall dovish outlook in the latest meeting, as well as the broad greenback strength, could keep the pair bullish.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.4
  • S2 109.65
  • S1 109.74
  • Pivot Point 109.9
  • R1 109.99
  • R2 110.15
  • R3 110.41

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair has finally violated the double bottom level of 109.850, which is now leading the currency pair towards the next support level of 109.185. Technically, the USD/JPY may find resistance around 109.850, which is the same level that provided support to the USD/JPY earlier. We can see selling below this level until 109.250. Moreover, the RSI and MACD have crossed over in the selling zone. Today, I will be looking for selling trades below 109.850 and selling above 109.250 level. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 22 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Weaker Dollar Sentiment In Play! 

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD edged up to 1.1098, and GBP/USD climbed to 1.3011. The USD/JPY slid to 109.97. This morning, the Bank of Japan, as widely expected, kept its policy rate at -0.10% and a 10-year yield target at 0% unchanged. The central bank raised its 2020 Japan’s GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 0.7% previously. Spot gold marked a day-high of $1,568.6 an ounce before easing to $1,566.0 an ounce.

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD edged up to 1.1098, and GBP/USD climbed to 1.3011. The USD/JPY slid to 109.97. This morning, the Bank of Japan, as widely expected, kept its policy rate at -0.10% and a 10-year yield target at 0% unchanged. The central bank raised its 2020 Japan’s GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 0.7% previously. Spot gold marked a day-high of $1,568.6 an ounce before easing to $1,566.0 an ounce.

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD edged up to 1.1098, and GBP/USD climbed to 1.3011. The USD/JPY slid to 109.97. This morning, the Bank of Japan, as widely expected, kept its policy rate at -0.10% and a 10-year yield target at 0% unchanged. The central bank raised its 2020 Japan’s GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 0.7% previously. Spot gold marked a day-high of $1,568.6 an ounce before easing to $1,566.0 an ounce.

The ZEW Financial Market Survey is an aggregation of the sentiments of almost 350 economists and analysts on the economic future of Germany is scheduled to release today. Germany, which is considered as the Eurozone’s manufacturing powerhouse, suffered a marked slowdown in 2019, in the wake of the Sino-US trade tensions.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD slipped 0.1% to 1.1085. The German ZEW Current Situation Index bounced to -9.5 in January (-13.5 expected) from -19.9 in December.  

The EUR/USD currency pair bullish level above 1.11 was not long-lived. The pair closed the day with 0.11% losses, creating an inverted hammer and confirming a head-and-shoulders breakdown on the daily chart. 

Looking forward, Italy’s Business Climate, Industrial Sales, and Industrial Orders for November are scheduled to release today. However, these data could not influence the market as well as the U.S. housing data is expected to release and will likely leave the impact on the U.S. Dollar.

The ECB is not supposed to appear on Thursday, although Bloomberg announced that 90% of analysts anticipate a change to the inflation strategy. It will be the first move in 17 years if President Lagarde rules to perform the adjustment.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0996
  • S2 1.1051
  • S1 1.107
  • Pivot Point 1.1106
  • R1 1.1125
  • R2 1.1161
  • R3 1.1216

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1086, having formed a Doji and bullish engulfing pattern above 1.1070 support level. The bullish engulfing pattern is proposing the odds of a bullish trend in the EUR/USD. The EUR/USD can show bullish correction until 1.1106. On the lower side, a breakout of the support level of 1.1077 can lead EUR/USD prices towards the 1.1045 area. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD rebounded 0.3% to 1.3046. Official data showed that the U.K. jobless rate for the three months to November remained steady at 3.8% (as expected), and average weekly earnings grew 3.2% on year (+3.1% estimated).

The U.K. Office for National Statistics will release December public sector net borrowing, excluding banking groups (5.3 billion pounds expected).

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago will post the December National Activity Index (0.15 expected). The National Association of Realtors will report December’s existing-home sales (5.43 million units expected). The FHFA will release November House Price Index (+0.3% on month expected).

The pound to dollar is striving to post a third continuous day of profits and is probing a vital resistance zone. GBP/USD set higher on Monday and spread gains yesterday following an upbeat U.K. jobs report.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2812
  • S2 1.2928
  • S1 1.2969
  • Pivot Point 1.3044
  • R1 1.3085
  • R2 1.316
  • R3 1.3276

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Wednesday, GBP/USD continues to trade bullish over a weaker dollar. On the 4 hour timeframe, the GBP/USD is testing the resistance level, which is extended by the bearish channel at 1.3060. At the moment, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3060, and it seems to extend bullish bias until 1.3090.

The GBP/USD pair may find support around the 1.3044 area today. Whereas, the RSI and MACD support the bullish bias. Let’s look for selling trades below 1.3080 and bullish trades above 1.3010. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 109.859 after placing a high of 110.220 and a low of 109.760. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained strongly bearish that day.

On Tuesday, USD/JPY dropped to its one-week lowest after the Bank of Japan revised its growth projections for 2020. The Bank of Japan raised its growth estimates for the fiscal year beginning in April to 0.9%, which it previously estimated as 0.7% in October.

According to reports, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy on hold. It raised its forecasts for economic growth in 2020 because of the stimulus package of government and the decreasing pessimism over the global outlook. 

The Bank of Japan signaled the rising optimism over the global outlook after the United States and China agreed on the Phase-one trade deal to resolve their trade conflicts. Bank said that the risks surrounding the global perspective have decreased to some extent, and this has provided the bank with the possibility to increase its forecast for the growth of Japan’s economy in 2020.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.73
  • S2 109.94
  • S1 110.04
  • Pivot Point 110.15
  • R1 110.25
  • R2 110.35
  • R3 110.56

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY pair continues to exhibit choppy trading sessions due to a lack of fundamentals. The USD/JPY has traded bearishly as it fell from 110.200 to trade at 109.950, but the pair continues to consolidate in a narrow trading range of 109.800 – 110.150.

Technically, the USD/JPY is supported above 109.850, and we can see buying above this level until 110.490. The USD/JPY may find a resistance level of 110.570. Moreover, the RSI and MACD have crossed over in the selling zone. Today, I will be looking for buying trades over 110.15 and selling below at the same level. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 21 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Risk-off Sentiment in Play! 

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD edged up to 1.1098, and GBP/USD climbed to 1.3011. The USD/JPY slid to 109.97. This morning, the Bank of Japan, as widely expected, kept its policy rate at -0.10% and a 10-year yield target at 0% unchanged. The central bank raised its 2020 Japan’s GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 0.7% previously. Spot gold marked a day-high of $1,568.6 an ounce before easing to $1,566.0 an ounce.

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD edged up to 1.1098, and GBP/USD climbed to 1.3011. The USD/JPY slid to 109.97. This morning, the Bank of Japan, as widely expected, kept its policy rate at -0.10% and a 10-year yield target at 0% unchanged. The central bank raised its 2020 Japan’s GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 0.7% previously. Spot gold marked a day-high of $1,568.6 an ounce before easing to $1,566.0 an ounce.

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD edged up to 1.1098, and GBP/USD climbed to 1.3011. The USD/JPY slid to 109.97. This morning, the Bank of Japan, as widely expected, kept its policy rate at -0.10% and a 10-year yield target at 0% unchanged. The central bank raised its 2020 Japan’s GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 0.7% previously. Spot gold marked a day-high of $1,568.6 an ounce before easing to $1,566.0 an ounce.

The ZEW Financial Market Survey is an aggregation of the sentiments of almost 350 economists and analysts on the economic future of Germany is scheduled to release today. Germany, which is considered as the Eurozone’s manufacturing powerhouse, suffered a marked slowdown in 2019, in the wake of the Sino-US trade tensions.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair was flashing green, and it crossed the 50-day Moving Average at 1.1094 ahead of the German ZEW Survey for January. The EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1098 and is consolidating in the range between the 1.1088 – 1.1099.

As we know, the currency pair hit the 3.5 week low of 1.1077 yesterday. As of now, the EUR currency is likely to get a strong buying trend if the German ZEW survey data comes positive. On the flip side, if the data disappoints the expectations and comes negative, then the EUR/USD currency pair could touch the Monday’s low of 1.1077 and may drop further below 100-day Moving Average at 1.1066.

The German ZEW survey for January, which is scheduled to release at 10:00 GMT, is expected to show improvement, with the Economic Sentiment index rising to 15.0 from 10.7 in December while the Current Situation index is seen improving to -13.8 from -19.9.

On the technical side, a close above 1.1173 (January 16 high) is required to cancel the lower moves and confirm a bullish reversal.

On the other hand, the expectations to cut interest rates by the European Central Bank are developed while keeping in mind the weakness of EUR. These expectations are continuously weighing on EUR/USD prices ahead of ECB monetary policy meeting. 

Whereas, U.S. President Trump and his Administration are strongly trying to limit the greenback’s upside through giving warnings and pressurizing the Fed for further cuts.



Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0996
  • S2 1.1051
  • S1 1.107
  • Pivot Point 1.1106
  • R1 1.1125
  • R2 1.1161
  • R3 1.1216

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1096, having formed a bullish engulfing pattern. The bullish engulfing pattern is suggesting the odds of a bullish trend in the EUR/USD. The EUR/USD can show bullish correction until 1.1106 and 1.1112 before showing further selling.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair continues to flash green and extends its previous day’s recovery rally despite the ruling Tory party’s defeat in the parliamentary voting over the Brexit bill. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3017 and is consolidating in the range between the 1.2996 – 1.3021. As of now, market traders are keeping their eyes on the U.K.’s employment data for fresh clues of Bank of England’s next step.

On the front of the main news, the House of Lords rejected 3-votes from the United Kingdom Prime minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit departure agreement Bill. It is worth to mention that this was the 1st parliamentary defeat for the ruling Conservative Party after the general election. Notably, the one amendment among three was telling to providing a physical document to the European Union as evidence to live in the United Kingdom after Brexit. Whereas, the other bills were relating to the powers of ministers to set aside judgments by the E.U. Court of Justice.

As we know the GBP/USD pair extended its recovery rally despite the defeat of the Conservative Party. So, the reason behind the pair’s bullish sentiment could be the trader’s expectation on these laws that these laws will provide help during the United Kingdom and European Union talks.

On the other hand, the American traders will come back on to take their positions after the long weekend and will observe U.S. President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial.

Looking forward, the British employment data got more importance in the wake of recent downbeat economics from the U.K. as well as the BOE Governor’s dovish tone in the latest public figure. On the forecast view, we’re in line with consensus in looking for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.8% in November, because it continues to bounce around near-multi decade lows. We also look for wage growth to ease a tenth lower, with headline wages at 3.1% y/y, and ex-bonus wages at 3.4%. While wage growth had been very strong during the middle of the year, it seems to be decreasing slightly at the end of 2019.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2812
  • S2 1.2928
  • S1 1.2969
  • Pivot Point 1.3044
  • R1 1.3085
  • R2 1.316
  • R3 1.3276

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has taken a bullish turn following a release of better than expected U.K. labor market figures. The Cable seems to go and test the downward channel, which is still intact on the 4-hour chart. At the moment, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3040, and it seems to extend bullish bais until 1.3090.

The GBP/USD pair may find support around the 1.3044 area today. Whereas, the RSI and MACD support the bullish bias. Let’s look for selling trades below 1.3080 and bullish trades above 1.3010. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair continued to flash red and extended its losses streak despite the BOJ’s decision to hold its monetary policy and interest rates unchanged. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.94 and is consolidating in the range between 109.90 and 110.22.

The buying sentiment came in the safe-haven Japanese yen before the press time and sent the USD/JPY pair to a session low of 109.91 from 110.21, mainly after the losses in the U.S. equity index futures.

On the other hand, the details of the fourth quarter (Q4) economic outlook was also released. The Japanese central bank upwardly revised the GDP growth for fiscal 2019/20 and 2020/21.

Whereas, the futures on the S&P 500 are currently reporting a 0.30% drop on the day. The index futures and the Asian stocks came under pressure reportedly due to the explosion of the coronavirus.

As we know, the currency pair earlier dropped mainly due to the headlines regarding the China virus took market attention. As four people have already died of the same in China, an Australian man has also been recently tested for the human transmitted disease. As a result, Wuhan has created a Wuhan Pneumonia control center to stop further spread of the disease. Meanwhile, he has ordered strong supervision of markets and public transportation stations in order to stop further spread of this virus.

Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year treasury yields drop four basis points to 1.79%, whereas the S&P 500 Futures decline 0.40% to 3,311. Moreover, Japan’s NIKKEI also lost 1.0% to 23,850 by press time.

Looking forward, traders will now keep their eyes on BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s press conference, which is scheduled to happen at 06:00 GMT, for taking fresh direction. After that, the United States trader will come back on their positions after the long weekend and will observe U.S. President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial and fresh headlines.       



Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.73
  • S2 109.94
  • S1 110.04
  • Pivot Point 110.15
  • R1 110.25
  • R2 110.35
  • R3 110.56

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

Technically, the USD/JPY pair is trading with a bullish bias at 110.200 after consolidating in a narrow trading range of 109.800 – 110.150. Recently, the USD/JPY pair has formed Three While Soldiers pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, which typically suggests a bullish trend in the market. The USD/JPY is now supported above 110.100, and we may see further buying above this level until 110.490 today. The USD/JPY may find a resistance level of 110.570. Moreover, the RSI and MACD are still staying in the buying zone. Today, I will be looking for buying trades over 110.1 levels with a target of 110.570. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 20 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Martin Luther King Day

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day at 97.61. The euro slid 0.4% to $1.1090. The British Pound dropped 0.5% to $1.3010, snapping a three-day rally. Official data showed that U.K. retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% on month in December (+0.6% estimated), fueling expectations of an interest-rate cut by the Bank of England.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day at 97.61. The euro slid 0.4% to $1.1090. The British Pound dropped 0.5% to $1.3010, snapping a three-day rally. Official data showed that U.K. retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% on month in December (+0.6% estimated), fueling expectations of an interest-rate cut by the Bank of England.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day at 97.61. The euro slid 0.4% to $1.1090. The British Pound dropped 0.5% to $1.3010, snapping a three-day rally. Official data showed that U.K. retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% on month in December (+0.6% estimated), fueling expectations of an interest-rate cut by the Bank of England.

The U.S. government bond prices declined further after the Treasury Department announced plans to sell 20-year government bonds later this year. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield advanced to 1.834% from 1.809% Thursday.

Economic Events to Watch Today

  

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.10893 after placing a high of 1.11425 and a low of 1.10862. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained strongly bearish that day.

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair was dropped near its January low amid the broad U.S. dollar strength after the upbeat macroeconomic data. 

The US-China phase-one trade deal was under whole focus week but failed to impress as it did not include the rolling back of tariffs in it, which was essential for boosting global growth. According to Trump, there would be rolling back of tariffs in Phase-two of a trade deal. The uncertainty from the trade front, as well as Brexit front, continued to weigh on the market.

On Thursday, the closely watched Retail Sales data from the United States exceeded the expectations and supported the U.S. dollar. The stronger U.S. dollar after December Retail Sales removed risk appetite from the market and dragged its rival currency Euro on Friday.

The upbeat data from the United States indicated that the economy was doing well then its significant counterparts and weighed on EUR/USD prices.

On Friday, from the European side, at 12:45 GMT, the French Government Budget Balance was announced for November, which showed a deficit of -113.9B. At 14:02 GMT, the Current Account Balance for the whole bloc was released, which also came in short of expectations as 33.9B against the forecasted 34.3B and weighed on Euro.

At 14:02 GMT, the Italian Trade Balance for November showed a decline of 4.87B against the expected 7.22B and weighed on single currency Euro. At 15:00 GMT, the Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year remained flat at 1.3%. The Final Core Consumer Price Index from Eurozone for the year also remained the same as expected at 1.3%. Weaker than expected Trade Balance from Eurozone weighed on EUR/USD and dragged its prices near its month lowest point.

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar was in strength already due to Retail Sales data from Thursday and got even stronger after the release of Housing Starts on Friday. At 18:30 GMT, the number of Houses that started its construction in December exceeded the expectations of 1.38M and came in as 1.61M and supported the U.S. dollar.

The stronger U.S. dollar dragged further the prices of EUR/USD pair and gave the pair a strong bearish candle at the ending day of the week.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1056
  • S2 1.1101
  • S1 1.1119
  • Pivot Point 1.1146
  • R1 1.1164
  • R2 1.1191
  • R3 1.1236

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1096, having formed a bullish engulfing pattern. The bullish engulfing pattern is suggesting the odds of a bullish trend in the EUR/USD. The EUR/USD can show bullish correction until 1.1106 and 1.1112 before showing further selling.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.30094 after placing a high of 1.31187 and a low of 1.30076. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bearish that day. On Friday, the British Pound was lower against the U.S. dollar as the Retail Sales data from the U.K. came in short of expectations, and the U.S. dollar gained traction at the end of the week amid robust data.

The member of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, Gertjan Vlieghe, who previously was in favor of rate hike said earlier this week that he would vote for a rate cut in the next meeting if the data continuously show signs of weakness.

The chances for a rate cut by Bank of England increased on Friday after the release of Retail Sales from Great Britain. At 14:30 GMT, the Office for National Statistics from the United Kingdom published Retail Sales report for December, which showed that Retail Sales slumped to -0.6% from the expectations of 0.5% and weighed on single currency Pound.

The GBP/USD prices rose in the early trading session on Friday before the release of Retail Sales, which decreased the size of the decline in prices of GBP/USD after the publication of data. The pair GBP/USD fell to 1.30 level on the back of the 5th consecutive monthly decline in Retail Sales. 

It should also be noted that in December, there were general elections in the United Kingdom, which could be a cause for the decline in Retail Sales as the political uncertainty could have weighed on consumer minds for spending on Christmas presents.

The next monetary policy decision by Bank of England will take place on coming Thursday, January 30. Only major data to be released by then from the United Kingdom is Manufacturing & Services PMI, which will also be released next week.

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar remained firm on the back of strong Housing Starts figures. At 18:30 GMT, the number of buildings that started their construction in December came in as 1.61M against the expectations of 1.38M and supported the U.S. dollar.

The member of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, Harker, also gave comments in favor of the U.S. economy. He said that the economy was doing well, and data will be monitored to decide the further fate of monetary policy and interest rates.

His comments also supported the upward trend of the U.S. dollar on Friday and added in the fall of GBP/USD prices at the ending day of the week.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2946
  • S2 1.3004
  • S1 1.304
  • Pivot Point 1.3062
  • R1 1.3098
  • R2 1.312
  • R3 1.3178

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Monday, the GBP/USD pair continues to trade bearish as it tested and failed to violate the downward channel, which was formed on the 4-hour chart. At the moment, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.2078, and it seems to extend bearish bais until 1.2925. 

The GBP/USD pair may find support around 1.2925 area today. Whereas, the RSI and MACD support the bearish bias. Let’s look for selling trades below 1.2980.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 110.161 after placing a high of 110.287 and a low of 110.046. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish that day.

At 9:30 GMT, the Tertiary Industry Activity for November from Japan exceeded the market expectations and supported the Japanese Yen when it came in as 1.3% against the forecasted 1.0%. 

At 2:00 GMT, the TIC Long-Term Purchases data from the United States for November was released by the U.S. Department of Treasury. The report showed a decline of 22.9B from the expected 34.5B and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

At 18:30, the Building Permits for December from the United States showed a decline to1.42M from the expected 1.47M and weighed on the U.S. dollar. However, the Housing Starts in December were increased to 1.61M from the expected 1.38M and supported the U.S. dollar.

At 19:15 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from the U.S. remained flat at 77.0%. But the Industrial Production for December dropped and came in negative as -0.3% from forecasted 0.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

At 20:00 GMT, the Prelim Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan came as 99.1, almost in line with the expectations of 99.3, and gave null effect to the U.S. dollar. However, the release of JOLTS Job Openings weighed on the U.S. dollar when it dropped to 6.80M against the expectations of 7.24M for November.

The Prelim Inflation Expectations from the University of Michigan increased in January to 2.5% from December’s 2.3%. The increased Housing Starts and Increased expectations of rising Inflation gave a boost to the U.S. dollar on Friday. The U.S. dollar was further supported by the comments of Patrick Harker, the President of Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.57
  • S2 109.83
  • S1 110
  • Pivot Point 110.1
  • R1 110.27
  • R2 110.36
  • R3 110.62

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Monday, the USD/JPY pair is trading with a bullish bias at 110.200 after consolidating in a narrow trading range of 109.800 – 110.150. Recently, the USD/JPY pair has formed Three While Soldiers pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, which typically suggests a bullish trend in the market. 

The USD/JPY is now supported above 110.100, and we may see further buying above this level until 110.490 today. The USD/JPY may find a resistance level of 110.570. Moreover, the RSI and MACD are still staying in the buying zone. Today, I will be looking for buying trades over 110.1 levels with a target of 110.570. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 17 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – UoM Consumer Sentiment Ahead! 

On Friday, China’s industrial production rose by 6.9% in December, against the forecast figures of 5.9% by a significant margin to register the fastest rate of growth since March. Moreover, Retail Sales increased by 8%, beating forecasts of 7.9% growth, but remained unchanged from November. 

On Friday, China’s industrial production rose by 6.9% in December, against the forecast figures of 5.9% by a significant margin to register the fastest rate of growth since March. Moreover, Retail Sales increased by 8%, beating forecasts of 7.9% growth, but remained unchanged from November. 

On Friday, China’s industrial production rose by 6.9% in December, against the forecast figures of 5.9% by a significant margin to register the fastest rate of growth since March. Moreover, Retail Sales increased by 8%, beating forecasts of 7.9% growth, but remained unchanged from November. 

Whereas, the 4th-quarter GDP came in at 6% as expected, while China reported the full-year growth at 6.1%, the slowest in 29 years. Let’s take a look at the trade setups worth trading today. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD is facing selling pressure and dropped to 1.1131 from the high of 1.1173 despite the better-than-expected China data. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1134 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1131 – 1.1143. The greenback is seen strong in the wake of better-than-expected U.S. Retail Sales Data, and this is the main reason behind the EUR/USD pair declines.

At the USD front, the greenback picked up the bids across the board. The DXY rose for the day, above 97.30, recovering from weekly lows. The U.S. yield is up as well, with the ten-year at 1.81%, offering support to the greenback.

The EUR currency pair hit the peak of 1.1160 yesterday, confirming an upside break of the descending channel from December 31 and January 6 highs.

At the China data front, the Industrial production rose by 6.9% in December, against the forecast figures of 5.9% by a significant margin to register the fastest rate of growth since March. Moreover, Retail Sales increased by 8%, beating forecasts of 7.9% growth, but remained unchanged from November. 

Whereas, the 4th-quarter GDP came in at 6% as expected, while China reported the full-year growth at 6.1%, the slowest in 29 years. 

It is worth to mention that the markets priced in China recession during 2019, and the economy have been struggling to shift in the recovery mode since the last few weeks in the wake of Sino-US trade truce. Moreover, the Industrial production data shows that the economy will likely regain some stability.

Looking forward, the EUR currency may take further steady declines if the Untied States Industrial Production ignore past expectation; by the way, the data is scheduled to release at 14:15 GMT. As well as, the Eurozone current account surplus and the final consumer price index figures for December are also scheduled to release in Europe.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1056
  • S2 1.1101
  • S1 1.1119
  • Pivot Point 1.1146
  • R1 1.1164
  • R2 1.1191
  • R3 1.1236

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The bullish setup of EUR/USD shifted dramatically into bearish setup on the release of U.S. Fundamentals. The retail sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing index surprised the market big times, beating the economist’s forecast. The EUR/USD drop from 1.1170 to 1.1130. 

Today, we don’t have any high impact economy which could rive such kind of movement again. Therefore the EUR/USD pair may continue treading in a bearish tone below 1.1145 resistance level. The immediate support can be found around the 1.1125 area. Below this, the next support can be found around 1.1100.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair stopped its three-day recovery streak and dropped to 1.3065 from the above 1.3100 level, mainly due to broad-based greenback weakness and the European Union sturdy stand on the Brexit. The GBP/USD currency pair is trading at 1.3074 and consolidates in the range between the 1.3065 – 1.3080. The market traders await for the U.K.’s December month Retail Sales for the fresh move.

At the Brexit front, the European Union Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan was the newest man to join the regional diplomat’s voices who shook the Boris Johnson’s Brexit optimism. Moreover, the German minister struck a friendly tone while saying that the U.K. must get post-Brexit defense privileges.

At the USD front, the greenback got support from the upbeat data and over the news of Trump administration’s ability to strike the key trade deals with China, Mexico, and Canada.

Risk-sentiment is still inactive in the market despite China’s positive Industrial production data, and Retail Sales that crossed the forecast figures. The U.S. ten-year treasury yields rose by 1-basis-points to 1.82%. 

Looking forward, the U.K.’s December Retail Sales will be key to watch after the latest disappointment from inflation data, which increased the probabilities of the BOE’s rate cut. Economists are expecting an increase of 2.6% against 1.0% in the YoY figure, whereas the monthly growth might have reversed -0.6% prior growth to 0.7%. As a result, the U.S. housing figures, consumer sentiment, and industrial production will be closely observed for fresh direction.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2946
  • S2 1.3004
  • S1 1.304
  • Pivot Point 1.3062
  • R1 1.3098
  • R2 1.312
  • R3 1.3178

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair continues to trade bullish as it has already violated the downward channel, which was formed on the 4-hour chart. At the moment, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3077, and it seems to extend bullish rally until 1.3165. However, this heavily depends upon the British Retail Sales data, which is due later in the day. 

The GBP/USD pair may find support around 1.3030 area today, but the RSI and MACD support the bullish bias. Let’s look for buying trades above 1.3060.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair rose mainly due to the strong greenback, and upbeat Industrial data which came out from China. The USD/JPY hit the high level above 110.00 and recently crossed the Tuesday high level of 110.20. The USD/JPY currency pair is trading at 110.25, representing 0.10% gains on the day. The bullish U.S. stocks markets and the positive U.S. data boosted the pair.

At the USD front, the greenback was trading slightly bearish in previous sessions. Still, currently, but currently, the currency has shifted into the bullish territory, mainly due to the release of U.S. economic data. The U.S. dollar index erased losses and climbed to 97.35, rebounding from weekly lows. Moreover, the US Jan Philly Fed index at 17.0 also helped a bid in the U.S. dollar, beating expectations (est. 3.7, prior 2.4) to retest mid-2019 highs.

On the other hand, another positive factor behind the risk sentiment recovery is the U.S. Senate approved the USCMA trade agreement, which now awaits Canada to agree on it and for Trump’s imminent signing.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.57
  • S2 109.83
  • S1 110
  • Pivot Point 110.1
  • R1 110.27
  • R2 110.36
  • R3 110.62

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Friday, the USD/JPY pair is trading with a bullish bias at 110.200 after consolidating in a narrow trading range of 109.800 – 110.150. Recently, the USD/JPY pair has formed Three While Soldiers pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, which typically suggests a bullish trend in the market. 

The USD/JPY is now supported above 110.100, and we may see further buying above this level until 110.490 today. The USD/JPY may find a resistance level of 110.570. Moreover, the RSI and MACD are still staying in the buying zone. Today, I will be looking for buying trades over 110.1 level with a target of 110.570. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 16 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Retail Sales In Highlights! 

On Thursday, the investors are watching strictly political events in the U.S. and Russia. The Democratic-led U.S. House of Representatives proposed on Wednesday to send impeachment charges against President Donald Trump to the Senate. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev published the compliance of his government after President Vladimir Putin proposed some constitutional changes.

On Thursday, the investors are watching strictly political events in the U.S. and Russia. The Democratic-led U.S. House of Representatives proposed on Wednesday to send impeachment charges against President Donald Trump to the Senate. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev published the compliance of his government after President Vladimir Putin proposed some constitutional changes.

On Thursday, the investors are watching strictly political events in the U.S. and Russia. The Democratic-led U.S. House of Representatives proposed on Wednesday to send impeachment charges against President Donald Trump to the Senate. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev published the compliance of his government after President Vladimir Putin proposed some constitutional changes.

The U.S. official data showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.1% on month in December, less than +0.2% expected. The Empire Manufacturing Index posted at 4.8 in December, better than 3.6 expected.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD prices closed at 1.11495 after placing a high of 1.11633 and a low of 1.11185. Overall the movement of EUR/USD remained bullish that day.

The EUR/USD pair climbed above 1.1162 level on Wednesday and posted a fresh weekly high. The general weakness of the U.S. dollar supported the move amid increased uncertainty after the release of details about the phase-one trade deal. 

The U.S. & China signed phase-one of the trade deal on Wednesday in which some tariffs on Chinese goods were retained, and this disappointed the traders. Hence, the U.S. dollar lost its demand, and the U.S. Dollar Index moved to weekly lows of 97.20.

The U.S. yields also fell and remained in negative territory on Wednesday and helped EUR/USD to move further in an upward direction. As for the data is concerned, the U.S. macroeconomic data came in mix, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) declined to 0.1% against the expected 0.2% weaker than expected PPI from the U.S. also helped EUR/USD prices to post weekly gains and rise above 1.116 level on Wednesday.

From the Europe side, at 12:45 GMT, the French Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December came in line with the expectations of 0.4%. AT 15:00 GMT, Industrial Production from the Eurozone in November showed a decline to 0.2% from expected 0.3% and weighed on single currency Euro.

The Trade Balance from the European Union whole bloc for November showed a deficit of 19.2B against the expectations of 22.3Band added in the pressure of single currency Euro. Though the economic data from Eurozone was against the Euro, it failed to drag the EUR/USD prices on Wednesday because of broad U.S. dollar weakness.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1045
  • S2 1.1086
  • S1 1.1107
  • Pivot Point 1.1126
  • R1 1.1147
  • R2 1.1166
  • R3 1.1206

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD pair continues to form a higher-high pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, which signifies bullish bias among traders. The pair has recently violated the resistance level of 1.1140, and now it is testing the double top level of 1.1160. It has become the current trading range of EUR/USD for now as the pair is being traded within a limited range. It looks like the market is calm as traders await the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and ECB President Lagarde’s speech. We may see EUR/USD trading bullish above 1.114. On the higher side, the violation of 1.1160 can extend buying until 1.1188 today.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.30373 after placing a high of 1.30423 and a low of 1.29848. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout that day.

The policymakers of Bank of England have pledged to vote in favor of rate cut and turned the stance of BoE dovish, which weighed on Pound. However, despite the weakness of Pound, the GBP/USD pair managed to post gains on Wednesday amid the U.S. dollar’s weakness.

The US-China trade deal finally got signed on Wednesday but failed to impress traders when the details revealed that most tariffs would remain in place. It weighed on the U.S. dollar and gave a boost to GBP/USD prices.

On the other hand, at 14:30 GMT, the Annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the month of December from the United Kingdom was declined to 1.3%from the expectations of 1.5% and weighed on British Pound. The Producer Price Index (PPI) Input in December from the United Kingdom also dropped to 0.1% against the forecasted 0.2%.

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year came in short of expectations and added in the pressure of Pound. It came as 1.4% against 1.7% forecasted. 

However, the House Price Index for the year from Britain increased to 2.2% from forecasted1.1% and supported Britain Pound. The PPI Output for December came in line with the expectations of 0.0%. 

The Retail Price Index (RPI) for December also dropped to 2.2% from expected 2.3% and weighed on British Pound.

Most data from Great Britain on Wednesday came against the expectations and weighed on Pound. This confirmed that policymakers would surely vote for a rate cut in the next meeting of Bank of England. GBP/USD was weighed a little after the release of economic data from the U.K. near the level of 1.298 but failed to post losses for the day.

The broad U.S. Dollar weakness gifted the gains posted by GBP/USD on Wednesday amid weaker than expected PPI data along with disappointed details from the US-China phase-one deal.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2845
  • S2 1.2924
  • S1 1.2972
  • Pivot Point 1.3002
  • R1 1.3051
  • R2 1.3081
  • R3 1.316

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Thursday, the GBP/USD is taking a bullish turn since the release of negative economic data from the United States. The GBP/USD has violated the strong resistance level of 1.3028, which was extended by the downward channel, and it seems to close candle outside this range. Continuation of bullish trends can lead to GBP/USD prices towards 1.3100 and 1.3156 soon. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 109.892 after placing a high of 110.008 and a low of 109.788. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained bearish throughout the day.

USD/JPY on Wednesday posted losses on the back of the broad weakness of the U.S. dollar amid the release of details of the Phase-one trade deal between the U.S. & China.

U.S. & China finally reached a deal on Wednesday and signed on it to reduce the global trade tensions. Also, the details of the US-China trade agreement were revealed on Wednesday, which is comprised of 86 pages.

Many aspects were included in the phase-one deal like China would increase its U.S. farm purchases in 2020-2021 by $200B from its 2017 purchases. China would provide better protection for intellectual property to U.S. China pledged not to force technology transfer in exchange for entering the Chinese market. 

Both countries agreed on providing a series of measures to open the financial services sector. Both countries agreed not to devalue their currencies to benefit their exports. However, the deal also mentioned that the U.S. would retain 25% tariffs on $250B worth of Chinese industrial goods, which were used by U.S. manufacturers. The tariffs were kept as a threat to China to fulfill its part of the deal.

However, traders got disappointed as tariffs were not removed, and uncertainty emerged in the market, which put pressure on USD/JPY prices.



Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.17
  • S2 109.51
  • S1 109.73
  • Pivot Point 109.84
  • R1 110.06
  • R2 110.17
  • R3 110.5

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Thursday, the USD/JPY pair is trading with a bullish bias at 110.017 after breaking above 109.600 triple top resistance level. Closing of Doji pattern followed by strong bullish candle seems to drive bearish bias for the pair, but it’s been trading with a bullish bias over faded demand for haven assets.

The USD/JPY may find a resistance level of 110.570. Moreover, the RSI and MACD are still staying in the buying zone. Today, I will be looking for buying trades over 109.84 level with a target of 110.570. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 15 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on PPI Figures! 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 97.39 on Tuesday. Media reported that the remaining U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods imports are likely to stay in place until after the American presidential election. The Chinese yuan eased against the greenback, as USD/CNH edged up 0.1% to 6.8895, snapping a five-day decline.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 97.39 on Tuesday. Media reported that the remaining U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods imports are likely to stay in place until after the American presidential election. The Chinese yuan eased against the greenback, as USD/CNH edged up 0.1% to 6.8895, snapping a five-day decline.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 97.39 on Tuesday. Media reported that the remaining U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods imports are likely to stay in place until after the American presidential election. The Chinese yuan eased against the greenback, as USD/CNH edged up 0.1% to 6.8895, snapping a five-day decline.

The U.S. Labor Department will release December PPI (+1.3% on-year expected). The New York Federal Reserve will publish January Empire Manufacturing Index (3.6 expected). Also, The Federal Reserve will post its economic report, the Beige Book.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair stopped its recovery rally and stuck in the bearish range mainly due to uncertainty surrounding the European Union and United States trade war. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1132 and consolidating in the narrow range between the 1.1125 – 1.1133. As we know, the currency pair hit a high level of 1.1135 during the U.S. trading hours and took a bid at a low near 1.11.

Moving ahead, the European Union’s (E.U.) new trade chief, Phil Hogan, is scheduled to meet the United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and other American officials during Jan. 14-16.

During his visit, Phil Hogan will try to stop the on-going conflict regarding France’s new digital services tax, European support for Boeing’s chief rival, Airbus, and other differences. Whereas some experts said that it might not prove to be peaceful for the Phil Hogan because administration and congress both are frustrated mainly due to European Unions’ unwillingness to negotiate with the United States about agriculture.

Meanwhile, the Houk Lee-Makiyama, director of the European Centre of International Political Economy in Brussels, said that traders would keep their eyes on EU-US matter until any underlying progress is made in resolving US-EU policy differences regarding trade. 

Looking forward, the EUR currency may not get significant gains during this week in the wake of EU-US uncertainty. However, the currency may get some support if the Eurozone Industrial Production data beats past expectations; by the way, the data is scheduled to release at 10:00 GMT.

At the Sino-US front, the United States decided that it will not remove tariffs on Chinese imports until the 2020 presidential elections complete. As a result, the uncertainty grew in the market concerning the signing ceremony of phase one of the trade deal between the U.S. and China, which is scheduled to happen today, while no details of the trade deal have been revealed before the ceremony.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1062
  • S2 1.1097
  • S1 1.1115
  • Pivot Point 1.1131
  • R1 1.115
  • R2 1.1166
  • R3 1.12

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has traded slightly higher as investors seem to price in weaker CPI sentiments ahead of the news release. The support becomes a resistance level of 1.1145 is holding the pair below this level. We may have a bullish or bearish breakout upon the release of U.S. CPI data during the U.S. session. 

A bullish breakout of 1.1145 can open further room for buying until 1.1208. Conversely, the closing of bearish candles below 1.1145 can drive the selling trend until 1.1100 support. The next support is likely to be found around 1.1075 today.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair is flashing green and continuing to trade in bullish sentiment towards 1.3050, mainly due to broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and traders await for the United Kingdom’s CPI report. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3028 and is consolidating in the range between the 1.3014 – 1.3030. 

As for today, the GBP currency has recovered to 1.3034 from the 3-week low of 1.2954. However, market traders are cautious ahead of the United States and China phase-one trade deal’s retail release. As well as, the signing ceremony leaves pressure on the greenback because the United States decided that it will not remove tariffs on Chinese imports until the 2020 presidential election completed. 

Moreover, the GBP currency got little love from the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s fresh comments about refusing Scottish Prime Minister Sturgeon’s request to hold another Scottish independence referendum, because it gives further support to Hard-Brexit concerns. Besides this, the weak UK GDP data and increased the expectations that BOE’s could continue dovish.

On the other hand, the upbeat U.K. annualized inflation figures will likely strengthen the GBP/USD currency pair’s recovery. However, the greenback’s movement is mainly impacting able for the pair because of the United States and China phase-one trade deal signing ceremony, which is scheduled to happen today at 16:30 GMT.

Looking forward to the calendar, the CPI report is the key data to watch today. As well as, traders will now wait to hear from MPC member Saunders, a former hawk turned dovish, to speak in Northern Ireland today at 08:40GMT. Also, the trader will keep their eyes on the Sino-US phase-one details and signing ceremony.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2845
  • S2 1.292
  • S1 1.2955
  • Pivot Point 1.2996
  • R1 1.303
  • R2 1.3071
  • R3 1.3147

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD continues to trade with bearish bias around 1.2980 after violating the 1.3045 support level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair has formed a strong bearish candle which is supporting the bearish trend in GBP/USD. The pair is currently trading in a bearish channel, which is extending resistance around 1.3034 along with support around 1.2906. While the MACD is still staying in the selling zone. I will be looking to take sell trades below 1.3000 today to target 1.2925 and 1.2906. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the low of 109.81 from the high of 110.01, mainly due to the risk-off market sentiment in the wake of uncertainty surrounding the Sino-US phase-one trade deal. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is trading at 109.94 and is consolidating in the range between the 109.81 – 109.94.

Wall Street’s rally came to a sudden stop due to the statement that the United States decided that it will not remove tariffs on Chinese imports until the 2020 presidential elections completed. It raised the uncertainty surrounding the signing ceremony of phase one of the trade deal between the U.S. and China, which will happen today, while no details regarding the deal have been revealed before the ceremony.

Consequently, Asia equity markets have ticked lower after the similar negative bias with the ASX 200 (+0.2%), Nikkei 225 (-0.4%), KOSPI (-0.5%) at the time of writing. 

It should be noted that the market traders are cautious and await for any detail release regarding the Sino-US phase-one trade deal ceremony for taking new directions. Furthermore, the meeting is scheduled to happen today at the White House (reportedly 11:30 am N.Y. time but not confirmed).

Looking forward, the BoJ will maintain QQE with yield curve control for as long as needed to achieve a 2% inflation target. As well as, BoJ will continue to expand the monetary base until consumer inflation exceeds 2%. Moreover, it will not hesitate to take an additional rate cut if risks to achieve the price target grew.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.17
  • S2 109.51
  • S1 109.73
  • Pivot Point 109.84
  • R1 110.06
  • R2 110.17
  • R3 110.5

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY pair has traded in line with the previous forecast as it continues to trade bullish at 110.017 after breaking above 109.600 triple top resistance level. On the 4-hour timeframe, the candlestick pattern three while soldiers are likely to extend buying trend until the next resistance level of 110.570. Moreover, the RSI and MACD are still staying in the buying zone. Today, I will be looking for buying trades over 109.84 level with a target of 110.570. 

All the best for today!