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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 20 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Martin Luther King Day

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day at 97.61. The euro slid 0.4% to $1.1090. The British Pound dropped 0.5% to $1.3010, snapping a three-day rally. Official data showed that U.K. retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% on month in December (+0.6% estimated), fueling expectations of an interest-rate cut by the Bank of England.

The U.S. government bond prices declined further after the Treasury Department announced plans to sell 20-year government bonds later this year. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield advanced to 1.834% from 1.809% Thursday.

Economic Events to Watch Today

  

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.10893 after placing a high of 1.11425 and a low of 1.10862. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair remained strongly bearish that day.

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair was dropped near its January low amid the broad U.S. dollar strength after the upbeat macroeconomic data. 

The US-China phase-one trade deal was under whole focus week but failed to impress as it did not include the rolling back of tariffs in it, which was essential for boosting global growth. According to Trump, there would be rolling back of tariffs in Phase-two of a trade deal. The uncertainty from the trade front, as well as Brexit front, continued to weigh on the market.

On Thursday, the closely watched Retail Sales data from the United States exceeded the expectations and supported the U.S. dollar. The stronger U.S. dollar after December Retail Sales removed risk appetite from the market and dragged its rival currency Euro on Friday.

The upbeat data from the United States indicated that the economy was doing well then its significant counterparts and weighed on EUR/USD prices.

On Friday, from the European side, at 12:45 GMT, the French Government Budget Balance was announced for November, which showed a deficit of -113.9B. At 14:02 GMT, the Current Account Balance for the whole bloc was released, which also came in short of expectations as 33.9B against the forecasted 34.3B and weighed on Euro.

At 14:02 GMT, the Italian Trade Balance for November showed a decline of 4.87B against the expected 7.22B and weighed on single currency Euro. At 15:00 GMT, the Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year remained flat at 1.3%. The Final Core Consumer Price Index from Eurozone for the year also remained the same as expected at 1.3%. Weaker than expected Trade Balance from Eurozone weighed on EUR/USD and dragged its prices near its month lowest point.

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar was in strength already due to Retail Sales data from Thursday and got even stronger after the release of Housing Starts on Friday. At 18:30 GMT, the number of Houses that started its construction in December exceeded the expectations of 1.38M and came in as 1.61M and supported the U.S. dollar.

The stronger U.S. dollar dragged further the prices of EUR/USD pair and gave the pair a strong bearish candle at the ending day of the week.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1056
  • S2 1.1101
  • S1 1.1119
  • Pivot Point 1.1146
  • R1 1.1164
  • R2 1.1191
  • R3 1.1236

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1096, having formed a bullish engulfing pattern. The bullish engulfing pattern is suggesting the odds of a bullish trend in the EUR/USD. The EUR/USD can show bullish correction until 1.1106 and 1.1112 before showing further selling.


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.30094 after placing a high of 1.31187 and a low of 1.30076. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bearish that day. On Friday, the British Pound was lower against the U.S. dollar as the Retail Sales data from the U.K. came in short of expectations, and the U.S. dollar gained traction at the end of the week amid robust data.

The member of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, Gertjan Vlieghe, who previously was in favor of rate hike said earlier this week that he would vote for a rate cut in the next meeting if the data continuously show signs of weakness.

The chances for a rate cut by Bank of England increased on Friday after the release of Retail Sales from Great Britain. At 14:30 GMT, the Office for National Statistics from the United Kingdom published Retail Sales report for December, which showed that Retail Sales slumped to -0.6% from the expectations of 0.5% and weighed on single currency Pound.

The GBP/USD prices rose in the early trading session on Friday before the release of Retail Sales, which decreased the size of the decline in prices of GBP/USD after the publication of data. The pair GBP/USD fell to 1.30 level on the back of the 5th consecutive monthly decline in Retail Sales. 

It should also be noted that in December, there were general elections in the United Kingdom, which could be a cause for the decline in Retail Sales as the political uncertainty could have weighed on consumer minds for spending on Christmas presents.

The next monetary policy decision by Bank of England will take place on coming Thursday, January 30. Only major data to be released by then from the United Kingdom is Manufacturing & Services PMI, which will also be released next week.

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar remained firm on the back of strong Housing Starts figures. At 18:30 GMT, the number of buildings that started their construction in December came in as 1.61M against the expectations of 1.38M and supported the U.S. dollar.

The member of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, Harker, also gave comments in favor of the U.S. economy. He said that the economy was doing well, and data will be monitored to decide the further fate of monetary policy and interest rates.

His comments also supported the upward trend of the U.S. dollar on Friday and added in the fall of GBP/USD prices at the ending day of the week.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2946
  • S2 1.3004
  • S1 1.304
  • Pivot Point 1.3062
  • R1 1.3098
  • R2 1.312
  • R3 1.3178

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Monday, the GBP/USD pair continues to trade bearish as it tested and failed to violate the downward channel, which was formed on the 4-hour chart. At the moment, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.2078, and it seems to extend bearish bais until 1.2925. 

The GBP/USD pair may find support around 1.2925 area today. Whereas, the RSI and MACD support the bearish bias. Let’s look for selling trades below 1.2980.  


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY pair was closed at 110.161 after placing a high of 110.287 and a low of 110.046. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bullish that day.

At 9:30 GMT, the Tertiary Industry Activity for November from Japan exceeded the market expectations and supported the Japanese Yen when it came in as 1.3% against the forecasted 1.0%. 

At 2:00 GMT, the TIC Long-Term Purchases data from the United States for November was released by the U.S. Department of Treasury. The report showed a decline of 22.9B from the expected 34.5B and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

At 18:30, the Building Permits for December from the United States showed a decline to1.42M from the expected 1.47M and weighed on the U.S. dollar. However, the Housing Starts in December were increased to 1.61M from the expected 1.38M and supported the U.S. dollar.

At 19:15 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from the U.S. remained flat at 77.0%. But the Industrial Production for December dropped and came in negative as -0.3% from forecasted 0.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

At 20:00 GMT, the Prelim Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan came as 99.1, almost in line with the expectations of 99.3, and gave null effect to the U.S. dollar. However, the release of JOLTS Job Openings weighed on the U.S. dollar when it dropped to 6.80M against the expectations of 7.24M for November.

The Prelim Inflation Expectations from the University of Michigan increased in January to 2.5% from December’s 2.3%. The increased Housing Starts and Increased expectations of rising Inflation gave a boost to the U.S. dollar on Friday. The U.S. dollar was further supported by the comments of Patrick Harker, the President of Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.57
  • S2 109.83
  • S1 110
  • Pivot Point 110.1
  • R1 110.27
  • R2 110.36
  • R3 110.62

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Monday, the USD/JPY pair is trading with a bullish bias at 110.200 after consolidating in a narrow trading range of 109.800 – 110.150. Recently, the USD/JPY pair has formed Three While Soldiers pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, which typically suggests a bullish trend in the market. 

The USD/JPY is now supported above 110.100, and we may see further buying above this level until 110.490 today. The USD/JPY may find a resistance level of 110.570. Moreover, the RSI and MACD are still staying in the buying zone. Today, I will be looking for buying trades over 110.1 levels with a target of 110.570. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jan 17 – Russia making a national digital currency; Bitcoin fighting for $9,000

The cryptocurrency market went on a bull ride once again in the past 24 hours. Most cryptos ended up in the green, with altcoins usually performing better than Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s price went up 3.46% on the day. It is currently trading for $8,943. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 6.95% on the day, while XRP went up 4.42%.

The past 24 had quite a few gainers, but we will mention only the most prominent ones. Mona Coin and Ethereum Classic were the best-performing digital assets today, gaining 29.15% and 28.32%, respectively. On the other side, Swipe lost 10.65% on the day, which makes it the biggest daily loser.

Every cryptocurrency in the top10 by market cap performed better than Bitcoin (excluding USDT).

Bitcoin’s dominance lost more than half a percent in the past 24 hours. It is now at 65.84%, which represents an increase of 0.53% when compared to the value it had yesterday.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by quite a bit when compared to yesterday’s value. It is currently valued at $245.82 billion, which represents an increase of $10.88 billion compared to yesterday.

What happened in the past 24 hours

The new Prime Minister of the Russian Federation announced that the country will prioritize the development of the digital economy.

Mikhail Mishustin, who was confirmed for the Prime Minister position earlier today, said that Russia should improve and walk towards modern information technologies. One of the main things to develop, he said, was a national digital economy program.

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin had another explosive gain today. Even though its price rise is small in comparison to other cryptocurrencies, it still did move up with quite a good bull presence. Bitcoin bulls pushed the price to $9,000. The bull move is still in play, so this doesn’t have to be the biggest price we will see today. This move crushed all the upside levels, including $8,640, $8,815 and $8,905.


Bitcoin’s volume is quite high and stable. Its RSI level hit the overbought level on the 4-hour chart.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $9,115                                          1: $8,905

2: $9,250                                          2: $8,815

3: $9,580                                          3: $8,640


Ethereum

Ethereum moved up along with other cryptos. Its move was bigger than Bitcoin. Ethereum’s price breezed through the resistance level of $167.8 and is currently trading at around $171. This move outperformed Bitcoin’s as well as XRP’s, making Ethereum the biggest gainer out of the top3 cryptocurrencies.


Ethereum’s volume is quite high due to the bull presence. Its RSI level is currently in the overbought territory.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $178.5                                             1: $167.8

2: $185                                              2: $160

3: $193.5                                           3: $154.2


Ripple

XRP had a good day, as it too had quite an explosive gain. The price movement was quite linear and moved to the upside from $0.221 all the way to $0.237, which is XRP’s current price. There is still a place for XRP to move further up as the next resistance is quite far away.


XRP’s volume decently high and steady, while its RSI is touching the overbought territory at the moment. It has not, however, entered it yet.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $0.24545                                        1: $0.2332

2: $0.253                                           2: $0.227

3: $0.266                                           3: $0.221

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 17 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – UoM Consumer Sentiment Ahead! 

On Friday, China’s industrial production rose by 6.9% in December, against the forecast figures of 5.9% by a significant margin to register the fastest rate of growth since March. Moreover, Retail Sales increased by 8%, beating forecasts of 7.9% growth, but remained unchanged from November. 

Whereas, the 4th-quarter GDP came in at 6% as expected, while China reported the full-year growth at 6.1%, the slowest in 29 years. Let’s take a look at the trade setups worth trading today. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD is facing selling pressure and dropped to 1.1131 from the high of 1.1173 despite the better-than-expected China data. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1134 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1131 – 1.1143. The greenback is seen strong in the wake of better-than-expected U.S. Retail Sales Data, and this is the main reason behind the EUR/USD pair declines.

At the USD front, the greenback picked up the bids across the board. The DXY rose for the day, above 97.30, recovering from weekly lows. The U.S. yield is up as well, with the ten-year at 1.81%, offering support to the greenback.

The EUR currency pair hit the peak of 1.1160 yesterday, confirming an upside break of the descending channel from December 31 and January 6 highs.

At the China data front, the Industrial production rose by 6.9% in December, against the forecast figures of 5.9% by a significant margin to register the fastest rate of growth since March. Moreover, Retail Sales increased by 8%, beating forecasts of 7.9% growth, but remained unchanged from November. 

Whereas, the 4th-quarter GDP came in at 6% as expected, while China reported the full-year growth at 6.1%, the slowest in 29 years. 

It is worth to mention that the markets priced in China recession during 2019, and the economy have been struggling to shift in the recovery mode since the last few weeks in the wake of Sino-US trade truce. Moreover, the Industrial production data shows that the economy will likely regain some stability.

Looking forward, the EUR currency may take further steady declines if the Untied States Industrial Production ignore past expectation; by the way, the data is scheduled to release at 14:15 GMT. As well as, the Eurozone current account surplus and the final consumer price index figures for December are also scheduled to release in Europe.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1056
  • S2 1.1101
  • S1 1.1119
  • Pivot Point 1.1146
  • R1 1.1164
  • R2 1.1191
  • R3 1.1236

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The bullish setup of EUR/USD shifted dramatically into bearish setup on the release of U.S. Fundamentals. The retail sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing index surprised the market big times, beating the economist’s forecast. The EUR/USD drop from 1.1170 to 1.1130. 

Today, we don’t have any high impact economy which could rive such kind of movement again. Therefore the EUR/USD pair may continue treading in a bearish tone below 1.1145 resistance level. The immediate support can be found around the 1.1125 area. Below this, the next support can be found around 1.1100.


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair stopped its three-day recovery streak and dropped to 1.3065 from the above 1.3100 level, mainly due to broad-based greenback weakness and the European Union sturdy stand on the Brexit. The GBP/USD currency pair is trading at 1.3074 and consolidates in the range between the 1.3065 – 1.3080. The market traders await for the U.K.’s December month Retail Sales for the fresh move.

At the Brexit front, the European Union Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan was the newest man to join the regional diplomat’s voices who shook the Boris Johnson’s Brexit optimism. Moreover, the German minister struck a friendly tone while saying that the U.K. must get post-Brexit defense privileges.

At the USD front, the greenback got support from the upbeat data and over the news of Trump administration’s ability to strike the key trade deals with China, Mexico, and Canada.

Risk-sentiment is still inactive in the market despite China’s positive Industrial production data, and Retail Sales that crossed the forecast figures. The U.S. ten-year treasury yields rose by 1-basis-points to 1.82%. 

Looking forward, the U.K.’s December Retail Sales will be key to watch after the latest disappointment from inflation data, which increased the probabilities of the BOE’s rate cut. Economists are expecting an increase of 2.6% against 1.0% in the YoY figure, whereas the monthly growth might have reversed -0.6% prior growth to 0.7%. As a result, the U.S. housing figures, consumer sentiment, and industrial production will be closely observed for fresh direction.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2946
  • S2 1.3004
  • S1 1.304
  • Pivot Point 1.3062
  • R1 1.3098
  • R2 1.312
  • R3 1.3178

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair continues to trade bullish as it has already violated the downward channel, which was formed on the 4-hour chart. At the moment, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3077, and it seems to extend bullish rally until 1.3165. However, this heavily depends upon the British Retail Sales data, which is due later in the day. 

The GBP/USD pair may find support around 1.3030 area today, but the RSI and MACD support the bullish bias. Let’s look for buying trades above 1.3060.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair rose mainly due to the strong greenback, and upbeat Industrial data which came out from China. The USD/JPY hit the high level above 110.00 and recently crossed the Tuesday high level of 110.20. The USD/JPY currency pair is trading at 110.25, representing 0.10% gains on the day. The bullish U.S. stocks markets and the positive U.S. data boosted the pair.

At the USD front, the greenback was trading slightly bearish in previous sessions. Still, currently, but currently, the currency has shifted into the bullish territory, mainly due to the release of U.S. economic data. The U.S. dollar index erased losses and climbed to 97.35, rebounding from weekly lows. Moreover, the US Jan Philly Fed index at 17.0 also helped a bid in the U.S. dollar, beating expectations (est. 3.7, prior 2.4) to retest mid-2019 highs.

On the other hand, another positive factor behind the risk sentiment recovery is the U.S. Senate approved the USCMA trade agreement, which now awaits Canada to agree on it and for Trump’s imminent signing.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.57
  • S2 109.83
  • S1 110
  • Pivot Point 110.1
  • R1 110.27
  • R2 110.36
  • R3 110.62

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Friday, the USD/JPY pair is trading with a bullish bias at 110.200 after consolidating in a narrow trading range of 109.800 – 110.150. Recently, the USD/JPY pair has formed Three While Soldiers pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, which typically suggests a bullish trend in the market. 

The USD/JPY is now supported above 110.100, and we may see further buying above this level until 110.490 today. The USD/JPY may find a resistance level of 110.570. Moreover, the RSI and MACD are still staying in the buying zone. Today, I will be looking for buying trades over 110.1 level with a target of 110.570. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jan 16 – Malaysia considering IEO’s, markets consolidating

It looks like the cryptocurrency market stopped growing and started consolidating. The past 24 hours were not very turbulent. Bitcoin’s price went down 1.51% on the day. It is currently trading for $8,617. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost 2.78% on the day, while XRP went down 4.38%.

The past 24 did not have as many big gainers as the day before had. However, Augur made some incredible uptick, gaining 52.02%. On the other side, Bitcoin SV bounced back 19.13% on the day, which makes it the biggest daily loser.

Out of the top50 cryptocurrencies by market cap, only the aforementioned Augur managed to rise significantly. Bitcoin Diamond also made some gains today.

Bitcoin’s dominance stayed at virtually the same place in the past 24 hours. It is now at 66.37%, which represents an increase of 0.03% when compared to the value it had yesterday.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased slightly to yesterday’s value. It is currently valued at $234.94 billion, which represents a decrease of $3.88 billion compared to yesterday.

What happened in the past 24 hours

Following the US SEC’s alert to investors against Initial Exchange Offerings and their safety, Malaysia’s regulator published a regulatory guide that requires token offerings in the country to be attached to exchanges.

Malaysia’s Securities Commission report makes it clear that digital tokens are only supposed to be used for goods and services and within strict guidelines. These guidelines will take effect late 2020.

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Technical analysis

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Bitcoin

After a few days of explosive gains, Bitcoin bulls stopped pushing the price upwards and Bitcoin started consolidating today. The largest cryptocurrency could not break the $8,815 mark neither of two times, which made the price go slightly down. Bitcoin is now consolidating at around $8,600.


Bitcoin’s volume is still elevated, but it has reduced when compared to yesterday. Its RSI level dropped below overbought and is currently falling even further.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $8,640                                           1: $8,425

2: $8,815                                           2: $8,125

3: $8,905                                          3: $7995


Ethereum

Ethereum, after it could not reliably break its $167.8 resistance, started to consolidate. Its price is now hovering just above the $160 support level.


Ethereum’s volume drop, in conjunction with a descending value of the RSI indicator, may show that the consolidating will last a little while longer.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $167.8                                             1: $160

2: $178.5                                            2: $154.2

3: $185                                               3: $148.5


Ripple

XRP performed the worst out of the top3 cryptos on the day. It lost the most value as it managed to break a key support level of $0.227. Its price is currently right below this level, which could prove to be quite a resistance.


XRP’s volume is lower than yesterday and higher than its average, while its RSI is descending to the middle of the value range.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $0.227                                            1: $0.221

2: $0.2332                                          2: $0.211

3: $0.24545                                        3: $0.205

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 16 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Retail Sales In Highlights! 

On Thursday, the investors are watching strictly political events in the U.S. and Russia. The Democratic-led U.S. House of Representatives proposed on Wednesday to send impeachment charges against President Donald Trump to the Senate. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev published the compliance of his government after President Vladimir Putin proposed some constitutional changes.

The U.S. official data showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.1% on month in December, less than +0.2% expected. The Empire Manufacturing Index posted at 4.8 in December, better than 3.6 expected.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD prices closed at 1.11495 after placing a high of 1.11633 and a low of 1.11185. Overall the movement of EUR/USD remained bullish that day.

The EUR/USD pair climbed above 1.1162 level on Wednesday and posted a fresh weekly high. The general weakness of the U.S. dollar supported the move amid increased uncertainty after the release of details about the phase-one trade deal. 

The U.S. & China signed phase-one of the trade deal on Wednesday in which some tariffs on Chinese goods were retained, and this disappointed the traders. Hence, the U.S. dollar lost its demand, and the U.S. Dollar Index moved to weekly lows of 97.20.

The U.S. yields also fell and remained in negative territory on Wednesday and helped EUR/USD to move further in an upward direction. As for the data is concerned, the U.S. macroeconomic data came in mix, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) declined to 0.1% against the expected 0.2% weaker than expected PPI from the U.S. also helped EUR/USD prices to post weekly gains and rise above 1.116 level on Wednesday.

From the Europe side, at 12:45 GMT, the French Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December came in line with the expectations of 0.4%. AT 15:00 GMT, Industrial Production from the Eurozone in November showed a decline to 0.2% from expected 0.3% and weighed on single currency Euro.

The Trade Balance from the European Union whole bloc for November showed a deficit of 19.2B against the expectations of 22.3Band added in the pressure of single currency Euro. Though the economic data from Eurozone was against the Euro, it failed to drag the EUR/USD prices on Wednesday because of broad U.S. dollar weakness.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1045
  • S2 1.1086
  • S1 1.1107
  • Pivot Point 1.1126
  • R1 1.1147
  • R2 1.1166
  • R3 1.1206

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD pair continues to form a higher-high pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, which signifies bullish bias among traders. The pair has recently violated the resistance level of 1.1140, and now it is testing the double top level of 1.1160. It has become the current trading range of EUR/USD for now as the pair is being traded within a limited range. It looks like the market is calm as traders await the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and ECB President Lagarde’s speech. We may see EUR/USD trading bullish above 1.114. On the higher side, the violation of 1.1160 can extend buying until 1.1188 today.


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.30373 after placing a high of 1.30423 and a low of 1.29848. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bullish throughout that day.

The policymakers of Bank of England have pledged to vote in favor of rate cut and turned the stance of BoE dovish, which weighed on Pound. However, despite the weakness of Pound, the GBP/USD pair managed to post gains on Wednesday amid the U.S. dollar’s weakness.

The US-China trade deal finally got signed on Wednesday but failed to impress traders when the details revealed that most tariffs would remain in place. It weighed on the U.S. dollar and gave a boost to GBP/USD prices.

On the other hand, at 14:30 GMT, the Annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the month of December from the United Kingdom was declined to 1.3%from the expectations of 1.5% and weighed on British Pound. The Producer Price Index (PPI) Input in December from the United Kingdom also dropped to 0.1% against the forecasted 0.2%.

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year came in short of expectations and added in the pressure of Pound. It came as 1.4% against 1.7% forecasted. 

However, the House Price Index for the year from Britain increased to 2.2% from forecasted1.1% and supported Britain Pound. The PPI Output for December came in line with the expectations of 0.0%. 

The Retail Price Index (RPI) for December also dropped to 2.2% from expected 2.3% and weighed on British Pound.

Most data from Great Britain on Wednesday came against the expectations and weighed on Pound. This confirmed that policymakers would surely vote for a rate cut in the next meeting of Bank of England. GBP/USD was weighed a little after the release of economic data from the U.K. near the level of 1.298 but failed to post losses for the day.

The broad U.S. Dollar weakness gifted the gains posted by GBP/USD on Wednesday amid weaker than expected PPI data along with disappointed details from the US-China phase-one deal.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2845
  • S2 1.2924
  • S1 1.2972
  • Pivot Point 1.3002
  • R1 1.3051
  • R2 1.3081
  • R3 1.316

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Thursday, the GBP/USD is taking a bullish turn since the release of negative economic data from the United States. The GBP/USD has violated the strong resistance level of 1.3028, which was extended by the downward channel, and it seems to close candle outside this range. Continuation of bullish trends can lead to GBP/USD prices towards 1.3100 and 1.3156 soon. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 109.892 after placing a high of 110.008 and a low of 109.788. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained bearish throughout the day.

USD/JPY on Wednesday posted losses on the back of the broad weakness of the U.S. dollar amid the release of details of the Phase-one trade deal between the U.S. & China.

U.S. & China finally reached a deal on Wednesday and signed on it to reduce the global trade tensions. Also, the details of the US-China trade agreement were revealed on Wednesday, which is comprised of 86 pages.

Many aspects were included in the phase-one deal like China would increase its U.S. farm purchases in 2020-2021 by $200B from its 2017 purchases. China would provide better protection for intellectual property to U.S. China pledged not to force technology transfer in exchange for entering the Chinese market. 

Both countries agreed on providing a series of measures to open the financial services sector. Both countries agreed not to devalue their currencies to benefit their exports. However, the deal also mentioned that the U.S. would retain 25% tariffs on $250B worth of Chinese industrial goods, which were used by U.S. manufacturers. The tariffs were kept as a threat to China to fulfill its part of the deal.

However, traders got disappointed as tariffs were not removed, and uncertainty emerged in the market, which put pressure on USD/JPY prices.



Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.17
  • S2 109.51
  • S1 109.73
  • Pivot Point 109.84
  • R1 110.06
  • R2 110.17
  • R3 110.5

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Thursday, the USD/JPY pair is trading with a bullish bias at 110.017 after breaking above 109.600 triple top resistance level. Closing of Doji pattern followed by strong bullish candle seems to drive bearish bias for the pair, but it’s been trading with a bullish bias over faded demand for haven assets.

The USD/JPY may find a resistance level of 110.570. Moreover, the RSI and MACD are still staying in the buying zone. Today, I will be looking for buying trades over 109.84 level with a target of 110.570. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 15 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on PPI Figures! 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 97.39 on Tuesday. Media reported that the remaining U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods imports are likely to stay in place until after the American presidential election. The Chinese yuan eased against the greenback, as USD/CNH edged up 0.1% to 6.8895, snapping a five-day decline.

The U.S. Labor Department will release December PPI (+1.3% on-year expected). The New York Federal Reserve will publish January Empire Manufacturing Index (3.6 expected). Also, The Federal Reserve will post its economic report, the Beige Book.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair stopped its recovery rally and stuck in the bearish range mainly due to uncertainty surrounding the European Union and United States trade war. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1132 and consolidating in the narrow range between the 1.1125 – 1.1133. As we know, the currency pair hit a high level of 1.1135 during the U.S. trading hours and took a bid at a low near 1.11.

Moving ahead, the European Union’s (E.U.) new trade chief, Phil Hogan, is scheduled to meet the United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and other American officials during Jan. 14-16.

During his visit, Phil Hogan will try to stop the on-going conflict regarding France’s new digital services tax, European support for Boeing’s chief rival, Airbus, and other differences. Whereas some experts said that it might not prove to be peaceful for the Phil Hogan because administration and congress both are frustrated mainly due to European Unions’ unwillingness to negotiate with the United States about agriculture.

Meanwhile, the Houk Lee-Makiyama, director of the European Centre of International Political Economy in Brussels, said that traders would keep their eyes on EU-US matter until any underlying progress is made in resolving US-EU policy differences regarding trade. 

Looking forward, the EUR currency may not get significant gains during this week in the wake of EU-US uncertainty. However, the currency may get some support if the Eurozone Industrial Production data beats past expectations; by the way, the data is scheduled to release at 10:00 GMT.

At the Sino-US front, the United States decided that it will not remove tariffs on Chinese imports until the 2020 presidential elections complete. As a result, the uncertainty grew in the market concerning the signing ceremony of phase one of the trade deal between the U.S. and China, which is scheduled to happen today, while no details of the trade deal have been revealed before the ceremony.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1062
  • S2 1.1097
  • S1 1.1115
  • Pivot Point 1.1131
  • R1 1.115
  • R2 1.1166
  • R3 1.12

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has traded slightly higher as investors seem to price in weaker CPI sentiments ahead of the news release. The support becomes a resistance level of 1.1145 is holding the pair below this level. We may have a bullish or bearish breakout upon the release of U.S. CPI data during the U.S. session. 

A bullish breakout of 1.1145 can open further room for buying until 1.1208. Conversely, the closing of bearish candles below 1.1145 can drive the selling trend until 1.1100 support. The next support is likely to be found around 1.1075 today.


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair is flashing green and continuing to trade in bullish sentiment towards 1.3050, mainly due to broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and traders await for the United Kingdom’s CPI report. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3028 and is consolidating in the range between the 1.3014 – 1.3030. 

As for today, the GBP currency has recovered to 1.3034 from the 3-week low of 1.2954. However, market traders are cautious ahead of the United States and China phase-one trade deal’s retail release. As well as, the signing ceremony leaves pressure on the greenback because the United States decided that it will not remove tariffs on Chinese imports until the 2020 presidential election completed. 

Moreover, the GBP currency got little love from the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s fresh comments about refusing Scottish Prime Minister Sturgeon’s request to hold another Scottish independence referendum, because it gives further support to Hard-Brexit concerns. Besides this, the weak UK GDP data and increased the expectations that BOE’s could continue dovish.

On the other hand, the upbeat U.K. annualized inflation figures will likely strengthen the GBP/USD currency pair’s recovery. However, the greenback’s movement is mainly impacting able for the pair because of the United States and China phase-one trade deal signing ceremony, which is scheduled to happen today at 16:30 GMT.

Looking forward to the calendar, the CPI report is the key data to watch today. As well as, traders will now wait to hear from MPC member Saunders, a former hawk turned dovish, to speak in Northern Ireland today at 08:40GMT. Also, the trader will keep their eyes on the Sino-US phase-one details and signing ceremony.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2845
  • S2 1.292
  • S1 1.2955
  • Pivot Point 1.2996
  • R1 1.303
  • R2 1.3071
  • R3 1.3147

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD continues to trade with bearish bias around 1.2980 after violating the 1.3045 support level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair has formed a strong bearish candle which is supporting the bearish trend in GBP/USD. The pair is currently trading in a bearish channel, which is extending resistance around 1.3034 along with support around 1.2906. While the MACD is still staying in the selling zone. I will be looking to take sell trades below 1.3000 today to target 1.2925 and 1.2906. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the low of 109.81 from the high of 110.01, mainly due to the risk-off market sentiment in the wake of uncertainty surrounding the Sino-US phase-one trade deal. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is trading at 109.94 and is consolidating in the range between the 109.81 – 109.94.

Wall Street’s rally came to a sudden stop due to the statement that the United States decided that it will not remove tariffs on Chinese imports until the 2020 presidential elections completed. It raised the uncertainty surrounding the signing ceremony of phase one of the trade deal between the U.S. and China, which will happen today, while no details regarding the deal have been revealed before the ceremony.

Consequently, Asia equity markets have ticked lower after the similar negative bias with the ASX 200 (+0.2%), Nikkei 225 (-0.4%), KOSPI (-0.5%) at the time of writing. 

It should be noted that the market traders are cautious and await for any detail release regarding the Sino-US phase-one trade deal ceremony for taking new directions. Furthermore, the meeting is scheduled to happen today at the White House (reportedly 11:30 am N.Y. time but not confirmed).

Looking forward, the BoJ will maintain QQE with yield curve control for as long as needed to achieve a 2% inflation target. As well as, BoJ will continue to expand the monetary base until consumer inflation exceeds 2%. Moreover, it will not hesitate to take an additional rate cut if risks to achieve the price target grew.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.17
  • S2 109.51
  • S1 109.73
  • Pivot Point 109.84
  • R1 110.06
  • R2 110.17
  • R3 110.5

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY pair has traded in line with the previous forecast as it continues to trade bullish at 110.017 after breaking above 109.600 triple top resistance level. On the 4-hour timeframe, the candlestick pattern three while soldiers are likely to extend buying trend until the next resistance level of 110.570. Moreover, the RSI and MACD are still staying in the buying zone. Today, I will be looking for buying trades over 109.84 level with a target of 110.570. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jan 15 – Bitcoin SV skyrockets on fundamentals, Dash loved by Venezuela

It looks like the cryptocurrency market is booming as options on Bitcoin futures became available for trading at CME. The past 24 hours were very turbulent. While most cryptocurrencies are in the green, some moved just a bit while others skyrocketed. Bitcoin’s price went up 2.25% on the day. It is currently trading for $8,685. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained an astonishing 8.52% on the day, while XRP went up 5.8%.

The big gainer among the top cryptos, the controversial Bitcoin SV, managed to gain over 100% before starting to fall. At this moment, it retained 65% of its gains.

The past 24 hours had many big gainers. Bitcoin Gold and Bitcoin SV went up the most, gaining 72.48% and 65.23% on the day, respectively. On the other side, MaidSafeCoin lost 22.82% of its value when compared to yesterday, making it the biggest daily loser.

Worth mentioning is Dash, the private cryptocurrency which got lost in the news of Bitcoin SV. Dash went up 45.28%. Many attributed Dash’s rising price to its popularity in Venezuela. Burger King announced that they would accept Dash in forty of the country’s restaurants. This fact could have sparked up speculative investing.

Bitcoin’s dominance had a major drop over the past 24 hours. It is now at 66.34%, which represents a decrease of 1.62% when compared to the value it had yesterday.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization increased significantly to yesterday’s value. It is currently valued at $238.82 billion, which represents an increase of $15.92 billion compared to yesterday.

What happened in the past 24 hours

The big talk of the market in the past 24 hours definitely seems to be the price gain of Bitcoin SV. This parabolic move happened as the rumor has it that Craig Wright, the man behind Bitcoin SV and the person that claims he is Satoshi Nakamoto, announced that he received the other part of the Tullip Trust keys. If this is true, Wright could unlock the 1.1 million Bitcoin held in the trust.

On Jan 14, Craig Wright, filed a notice of compliance with the U.S. District Court of Southern Florida that states that he recieved the private keys that can, in conjunction with the ones he currently have, unlock 1.1 million Bitcoin.

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Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Even though Bitcoin made gains yet again today, its moves lagged behind some other top cryptocurrencies. Its price went up and above $8,900 atfirst, but then died down and slowly reduced to its current state of around $8,650. This happened as bulls could not pass through the $8,810 resistance leve. However, they did pass the $8,640 support.


Bitcoin’s volume increased dramatically over the past 24 hours. Its RSI instantly went up to the overbought territory on the 4-hour chart, but has now gone below and is hovering near it.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $8,815                                           1: $8,640

2: $8,905                                           2: $8,165

3: $9,120                                           3: $8,000


Ethereum

Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum did make some great gains. Its price skyrocketed past its immediate resistance of $148.5. However, it did not stop there. It also went above the $154.2 and $160 resistances and managed to reach $171.25 before cooling off and consolidating at the ~$160 mark. Its current pivot point is the $164 level. Ethereum is currently fighting on whether its price will consolidate above or below it.


Ethereum’s volume is disproportionally huge when compared to the previous days, while its RSI is in the overbought territory for some time now.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $167.8                                             1: $160

2: $178.5                                            2: $154.2

3: $185                                               3: $148.5


Ripple

XRP is also making some great daily gains. Its price went from $0.211 to $0.245 in less than a day. However, the $0.24545 resistance was too strong, and XRP bulls could not get past it. Its price started settling below the $0.235 level, where it currently is. Still, this bull move managed to break two resistances, namely $0.221, $0.227, and resistance levels. Its price is currently fighting with the $0.235 resistance level, which is the current pivot point.


XRP’s volume spiked significantly during the uptick, while its RSI is on the edge of the overbought zone, often going in and then out of it.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $0.24545                                        1: $0.2332

2: $0.266                                           2: $0.227

3: $0.285                                           3: $0.221

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 14 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on U.S. Inflation!

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range on Monday, closing flat on the day at 97.38. The U.S. government reversed its decision to brand China a currency manipulator. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said: “China has made enforceable commitments to refrain from competitive devaluation while promoting transparency and accountability.” China offshore yuan strengthened to the strongest level in six months, with USD/CNH dipping 0.5% to 6.8822.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1135. Dismissals from the 1.1100-15 are aiming at higher marks. The initial point is 1.1152, supported by 1.1167. On Monday, the Euro has traded slightly bullish during the trading session but hasn’t been overly convincing. It seems as if we are yet striving to decide out where the pair is likely to go. 

An unexpectedly weaker figure will likely leave a bearish impact on the greenback, and supporting the EUR/USD pair may cross the range of 1.1150. The U.S. dollar was weak on Friday after the release of the negative wage growth figures for December.

Looking forward, the speeches by FOMC’s E.Rosengren (Boston Fed) and R.Bostic (Atlanta Fed) should keep the attention on the buck later in the N.A. session. Moreover, the traders will closely observe the critical event in the upcoming days, which includes the German GDP and the ECB Accounts on Wednesday and Thursday, as well.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1062
  • S2 1.1097
  • S1 1.1115
  • Pivot Point 1.1131
  • R1 1.115
  • R2 1.1166
  • R3 1.12

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has traded slightly higher as investors seem to price in weaker CPI sentiments ahead of the news release. The support becomes a resistance level of 1.1145 is holding the pair below this level. We may have a bullish or bearish breakout upon the release of U.S. CPI data during the U.S. session. 

A bullish breakout of 1.1145 can open further room for buying until 1.1208. Conversely, the closing of bearish candles below 1.1145 can drive the selling trend until 1.1100 support. The next support is likely to be found around 1.1075 today.


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The British pound lost 0.4% to $1.2987. Official data showed that U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrank 0.3% on month in November (flat estimated), and industrial production slid 1.2% (flat expected).

At the GBP front, despite the significant recovery from the 3-week low of 1.2691, the GBP currency trader remained cautious from the bearish risk-sentiment due to increased sentiments of Bank of England’s rate cut as early as this September.

The Bank Of England Governor Carney said last week that there are the chances to deliver a rate cut by 250 basis points. Besides this, the BOE policymaker Vlieghe said during the weekend that if the improvement does not come in the economic data, he will back for a reduction.

Moreover, a series of depressing U.K. key data, including the monthly GDP reduction and a significant drop in the industrial and manufacturing production data, supports the case for the dovish BOE monetary policy stance.

Looking forward, the focus now will shift towards the U.S. inflation data, which is scheduled to release later in the N.A. session at 1330 GMT. Due to the lack of any critical data from U.K. docket traders will keep their eyes on U.S. inflation data and the Sino-US phase-one trade deal.   

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2845
  • S2 1.292
  • S1 1.2955
  • Pivot Point 1.2996
  • R1 1.303
  • R2 1.3071
  • R3 1.3147

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD continues to trade with bearish bias around 1.2980 after violating the 1.3045 support level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair has formed a strong bearish candle which is supporting the bearish trend in GBP/USD. The pair is currently trading in a bearish channel, which is extending resistance around 1.3034 along with support around 1.2906. While the MACD is still staying in the selling zone. I will be looking to take sell trades below 1.3000 today to target 1.2925 and 1.2906. 

 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY climbed 0.4% to 110.01, the highest level since May 22. The USD/JPY currency pair hit the bullish level above the110 handles for the first time since May, mainly due to the fresh optimism surrounding the United States and China trade deal. 

As in result, the traders are selling the safe-have Japanese Yen in the wake of risk-on sentiment in the market. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency is currently trading at 110.08, having hit the high of 110.20. 

During the night, the USD/JPY currency pair strengthened its Asian session gains to a high of 109.94, a high since May 2019, in line with positive risk appetite. 

Meanwhile, the report came that the United States trade representative removed the currency manipulator tag for China, which also helped in increasing the risk-on market sentiment and also boosted the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. two-year Treasury yields increased to 1.585% (from 1.57% and a mild curve steepening allowed ten-year yields to test 1.85% from 1.82%. Fed funds futures indicated a modest (1bp) increase in implied yields across the curve, with the implied terminal rates up to 1.33% in early 2021.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.02
  • S2 109.28
  • S1 109.38
  • Pivot Point 109.54
  • R1 109.64
  • R2 109.8
  • R3 110.06

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair has traded in line with the previous forecast as it continues to trade bullish at 110.017 after breaking above 109.600 triple top resistance level.  

On the 4-hour timeframe, the candlestick pattern three while soldiers are likely to extend buying trend until the next resistance level of 110.570. Moreover, the RSI and MACD are still staying in the buying zone. Today, I will be looking for buying trades over 109.84 level with a target of 110.570. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Jan 14 – Travala now accepts USDT, Crypto market spiking up yet again

The cryptocurrency market scored even more gains today. The past 24 hours passed with a slight upward movement from all cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin’s price went up 3.45% on the day. It is currently trading for $8,413. Meanwhile, Ethereum gained 1.9%, while XRP went up 1.81% on the day. The big gainer among the top cryptos is Bitcoin SV which has made another 26% leap and is approaching its historical maximum valuation.

DxChain Token gained 32.51% on the day, making it the most prominent daily gainer yet again. On the other side, Energi lost 7.19% of its value when compared to yesterday, making it the biggest daily loser. Worth mentioning is POL(+36.4%), which moved from cents to over $100 in a couple of days, as blockchain voting solutions is gaining momentum.

Bitcoin’s dominance increased slightly over the past 24 hours. It is now at 67.99%, which represents an increase of 0.19% when compared to the value it had yesterday.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by when compared to where it was yesterday. It is currently valued at $222.9 billion, which represents an increase of $5.9 billion compared to yesterday.

What happened in the past 24 hours

Hotel booking company Travala announced that they now accept payment from Tether (USDT). Travala announced that Tether (USDT) could be used as a form of payment for its two million linked properties.

In addition to Tether, Travala accepts other cryptocurrency payments such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, XRP,  Bitcoin Cash, Binance Coin,  Cardano, Stellar, and  as well as its native coin, AVA.

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Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin made gains yet again today. After a great weekend, not many people expected a sudden increase in price. However, Bitcoin went above its upside resistance level of $8,165 and went as high as $8,500. However, its price is now stabilizing below this level. Its next upside target is $8,630, but the target seems unlikely to break in the short-term.


Bitcoin’s volume was descending steadily but had a major spike during the uptick. Its RSI instantly went up to the overbought territory on the 4-hour chart.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $8,630                                           1: $8,165

2: $8,820                                           2: $8,000

3: $9,100                                           3: $7,780


Ethereum

Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum did not break any resistance levels. It did, however, follow Bitcoin in the upward-facing price movement. Its price gained momentum as the volume increased, but that was not enough to break the $148.5 resistance. Its price is now trading in the higher levels of the range.


Ethereum’s RSI is currently in the upper part of the value range. Its volume was descending until the price started moving up. It is currently slightly elevated.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $148.5                                             1: $141.15

2: $154.2                                            2: $130

3: $160                                              3: 128.1


Ripple

XRP is also following the industry trend of moving up. XRP managed to bring its price above $0.211 over the weekend, but couldn’t move past the next resistance level this time. Its price went up rapidly as the volume spiked. However, the price reached $0.2177 and could not move above it. It is now consolidating right below that level.


XRP’s volume spiked during the uptick, while its RSI is moving upwards towards the overbought zone.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $0.221                                           1: $0.211

2: $0.227                                           2: $0.205

3: $0.2332                                         3: 0.1978

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 13 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Stronger Dollar In Play! 

On the forex front, the U.S. dollar eased against other major currencies on Friday, as growth in December nonfarm payrolls missed expectations. The Dollar Index slipped 0.1% on the day to 97.36. The euro gained 0.1% to $1.1122.

The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3061. Gertjan Vlieghe, a Bank of England policymaker, said in a Financial Times interview that he would vote for an interest-rate cut this month in case no signs of economic improvement show up after the general election. Later today, U.K. monthly GDP and industrial production for November will be reported (both flat on month expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair took an active bid mainly due to the greenback weakness on the back of weak jobs data and wage growth figures, which were released on Friday. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1130 and representing 0.10% gains on the day. The pair is consolidating in the range between the 1.1113 – 1.1131. 

The Nonfarm Payrolls data confirmed the economy added 145K jobs in December and disappointed the forecasted figure of 164K additions by a big margin. 

Especially, the average hourly earnings increased by 2.9% year-on-year in December compared to the 3.1% projection. That was the first under 3% figure since July 2018. The weak wage growth almost renewed disinflation concerns, and as a result, the U.S. ten-year treasury yield dropped by 7-basis points to 1.81% on Friday, which continued to add losses on the day and supported EUR/USD currency pair further.

The EUR currency will be likely to continue its recovery rally because of the United States and China trade optimism. The United States Treasury Secretary Steve Munchin told the markets that there would be negotiations regarding phase-two of the US-China trade deal when the Chinese representatives arrive on January 15.

Looking forward, the German Wholesale Price Index for November is scheduled to release at 07:00 GMT. However, the data rarely leave an impact on the markets. Generally, the EUR/USD pair is at the mercy of the action in the treasury yield for now.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1023
  • S2 1.1068
  • S1 1.1094
  • Pivot Point 1.1112
  • R1 1.1138
  • R2 1.1156
  • R3 1.12

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading sideways as investors didn’t find any solid reason to determine the trend. The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1120, below a strong resistance level of 1.1140. The closing of Doji candle below 1.1140 is supporting the bearish bias. 

On the lower side, the EUR/USD has the opportunity to drop until 1.1070. Below this, the next support stays around 1.1040. The MACD is trying to cross below 0 to support the bearish bias, but there’s still no strong bearish fundamental which can push the pair lower. Consider staying bearish below 1.1125 today.


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair is flashing red and continuing its 4-day losing streak mainly due to dovish tone from the Bank of England, and the European Union-Irish uncertainty surrounding the Brexit. Whereas, the pair is still trading bearish despite the greenback’s weakness. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3026 and consolidates in the range between the 1.3026 – 1.3045.

At the Brexit front, the Irish Deputy Prime Minister Simon indicated uncertainty on the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s deadline of December 31, 2020, for Brexit, which was also supported by the European Union chief Brexit negotiator and European Council President.

On the other hand, a survey led by the Confederation of British Industries (CBI) and the Price Water Cooper (PwC) showed that the business moral amongst the U.K.’s financial firms jumped for the first time in 4-years.

At the USD front, the greenback’s weakness could be attributed to weak employment figures released on Friday as well as the recent decrease in the U.S. Dollar’s demand. Notably, the rising optimism surrounding the United States & China trade front and decreased chances of the United States & Iran war are the reasons behind the risk-on sentiment in the market. 

Apart from this, the stocks in Asia and the S&P 500 Futures are still flashing green while the U.S. ten-year treasury yields show no signs of movement due to the Japanese holiday. It should also be mentioned that Iran recently arrested the United Kingdom’s ambassador to Tehran, and the global leaders do not like it.

Looking forward, the traders will keep their eyes on the U.K.’s November month Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, monthly GDP and Trade Balance figures. There, a possible contraction in the production numbers to -0.3%, a fall in trade numbers, and no change in the GDP figure of 0.0% is expected, which would keep the pair’s movement under check. 

On the flip side, the Sino-US and Iran-US headlines will remain under the focus because no critical data and events are scheduled from the United States.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2958
  • S2 1.3013
  • S1 1.3038
  • Pivot Point 1.3068
  • R1 1.3093
  • R2 1.3122
  • R3 1.3177

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD continues to trade with bearish bias around 1.2980 after violating the 1.3045 support level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair has formed a strong bearish candle which is supporting the bearish trend in GBP/USD. In addition to this, the UK GDP and Manufacturing figures have also disappointed the market.

The pair is currently trading in a bearish channel, which is extending resistance around 1.3034 along with support around 1.2906. While the MACD is still staying in the selling zone. I will be looking to take sell trades below 1.3000 today to target 1.2925 and 1.2906. 

 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the bullish track and is trading just above the 100-week average, mainly due to the safe-haven Japanese yen lost ground in the wake of the Sino-US and Iran-US optimism. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.64 and representing 0.17% gains on the day, as well as the pair consolidates in the range between the 109.50 – 109.65.

As we already mentioned, the anti-risk Japanese yen is losing ground in Asian trading hours due to risk-on sentiment in the market and pushing USD/JPY higher on the back of positive trade-related news flow. 

At the Sino-US front, the United States and China trade tensions continue to ease. Both countries are ready to sign an official trade deal this week. As well as, the White House Economic Advisor, Larry Kudlow, has said during the weekend that everything depends on the China trade deal. In contrast, the U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin told markets that there would be talks on the phase-two of the US-China trade deal when the Chinese delegates arrive on January 15.

Notably, the USD/JPY currency pair has failed many times to secure a weekly close above the key average since the last week of November. Moreover, the pair may face a hard time to beat a breakout because markets are likely to offer greenback on disinflation concerns. 

At the data front, the data released on Friday showed the average hourly earnings increased by just 2.9% year-on-year in December compared to the 3.1% projection. That was the first below-3% reading since July 2018. 

While the Nonfarm payrolls showed, the economy added 145K jobs in December, missing the expected print of 164K additions by a big margin.

Looking forward, the Sino-US and Iran-US headlines will remain under the focus because of no major data and events scheduled from the United States.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.02
  • S2 109.28
  • S1 109.38
  • Pivot Point 109.54
  • R1 109.64
  • R2 109.8
  • R3 110.06

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair is trading bullish around 109.820 after breaking above a resistance level of 109.550. The way USD/JPY has closed three while soldiers on the 4-hour timeframe, which is likely to extend buying trend until the next resistance level of 110.570.  

Leading indicators are massively overbought, and USD/JPY is looking for a reason to trigger bearish retracement. Let’s keep an eye on 110.570 level to capture a sell positon below level. All the best! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 10 – Top Trade Setups In Forex -NFP Figures in Highlights! 

The U.S. dollar strengthened for a third straight session on Thursday, ahead of the release of December nonfarm payrolls report due later today. The ICE Dollar Index gained 0.1% on the day to 97.42.

The euro was broadly flat at $1.1109. Official data showed that the eurozone’s jobless rate was steady at 7.5% in November as expected, while German industrial production grew 1.1% on the month (+0.8% estimated).

The British pound slipped 0.2% to $1.3069, posting a three-day decline. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney indicated that an interest rate cut may still be possible, saying, “there is a debate at the MPC (monetary policy committee) over the relative merits of near term stimulus to reinforce the expected recovery in U.K. growth and inflation.”

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flat near the 1.11 and traders stay on the waiting mode ahead of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report for December, which is scheduled to release at 13:30 GMT. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1109 and consolidates in the narrow range between the 1.1102 – 1.1111.

The currency pair charted a Doji candle Thursday because it marked two-way business and closed on a flat note. The Doji candle represents a lack of clear directional bias or indecision in the market place. 

Moving ahead, the pair may hit the bearish track if the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls ignore expectations. Moreover, the United States economy expected to have added 164,000 new jobs in December, after increasing 226,000 positions during November. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 305%, along with the participation rate is projected at 63.2%.

Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings are rising by 0.3% month-on-month and by 3.1% year-on-year, almost unchanged from the previous month.

According to the forecast, the positive report will likely support the dollar to gain across the board. In that case, EUR/USD will hit the bearish close below 1.1093. Although, in the case of a below-forecast NFP and wage growth figures, the shared currency may find bids, pushing the EUR/USD above 1.1120.

At the USD front, the greenback currency found on the bullish track because the markets await ahead of the NFP report. The U.S. Index is higher for the 3rd-consecutive day, trading back 97.50.

At the Sino-US front, the United States and China will possibly sign a phase one trade deal on January 15. However, any fresh is not coming yet regarding the Sino-US trade deal, but the trader keeps their eyes on January 15 for new impulse.

Looking forward, the Non-Farm Employment Change report is the trader radar, which is due to release at 13:30 GMT. Traders will also keep their focus on the Unemployment rate and Average Hourly Earnings, which are scheduled to release at the same time.



Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1014
  • S2 1.1067
  • S1 1.1086
  • Pivot Point 1.1121
  • R1 1.114
  • R2 1.1174
  • R3 1.1227

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading in a bearish mode below a crucial trading level of 1.1130, testing the support next level of 1.1100. This level worked as a support during the previous days, but this time it seems to get violated as the EUR/USD has formed a strong bearish candle. The MACD is trading below 0 levels, which is suggesting odds of the bearish trend continuation for the EUR/USD. 

On the 4 hour chart, the pair had formed a bullish channel that has now been violated at 1.1130 level, and now this can lead the EUR/USD prices towards 1.1077 level. 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD closed at 1.30659 after placing a high of 1.31234 and a low of 1.30130. Overall the movement of GBP/USD remained bearish throughout the day.

The GBP/USD came under pressure after the Bank of England’s governor gave hints for an interest rate cut, and the pair GBP/USD dropped near 1.30 level.

On Thursday, the Governor of Bank of England, Mark Carney, dropped hints that interest rates could be cut soon to boost the British economy. He also warned that the BoE was running low on ways to fight the recession.

He said that the British economy had been sluggish recently, and the inflation was below the bank’s target of 2%. He added that if the weakness in the economy persisted the same, then the central bank could cut interest rates.

His comments put pressure on Britain Pound and sent it near 2-week lowest point against the U.S. dollar on Thursday. Mark Carney, in the previous monetary policy meeting of Bank of England, backed himself from cutting interest rates while 2 of nine policymakers were in favor of cutting rates to 0.5% from 0.75%.

He also said that there were tentative signs of stabilization in the global economy after a slowdown for almost 18 months, while the chances for Britain’s economy to drop still remain because of uncertainty after Boris Johnson’s election victory.

Regarding inflation, he said that the level of interest rates required to keep inflation steady would need to remain low for a prolonged period of time.

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar remained strong on Thursday amid positive job data from the U.S. labor department, which showed that jobless claims during the previous week decreased to 214K from expected 221K and supported U.S. dollar. The strong U.S. dollar added to the downward movement of GBP/USD.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 1.3296
  • R2: 1.3206
  • R1: 1.3151
  • Pivot Point 1.3116
  • S1: 1.3061
  • S2: 1.3026
  • S3: 1.2936

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD continues to trade with bearish bias after violating the 1.3045 support level. On the 4 hour chart, the pair has closed a bearish engulfing candle under 1.3045 support level, which is a proof of bearish breakout. Below 1.3045, the GBP/USD has the potential to trade lower until 1.3000 level and even towards 1.2910 support zone. 

The leading indicators, such as RSI and MACD, are also supporting the bearish bias among traders. I will consider taking selling positions below 1.3058 to target 1.3000 today. 

 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 109.514 after placing a high of 109.580 and a low of 109.010. Overall the movement of USD/JPY remained bullish throughout the day. The safe-haven Yen falls to 2-week lowest point against the U.S. dollar on Thursday amid the de-escalation of tensions between the U.S. & Iran after the targeted killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani by U.S. military.

On Wednesday, Iran, in retaliation against its general murder, dropped missiles on Iraqi airbases where U.S. troops were hosted. However, there were no American casualties that led to U.S. President Donald Trump to stop further military action against Iran. 

Instead, Trump announced economic & financial sanctions on Iran in response to Iranian airstrikes. Furthermore, the Iran officials also said that their missile attacks were to conclude the retaliation, and no more attacks will be made from them. Both parties backed from any escalation of military actions, and this gave pressure to safe-haven currencies like Yen.

Weaker Japanese Yen caused the USD/JPY to move in the reverse direction, and the pair moved to its 2-week highest level above 109.5.

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar remained strong across the board on the back of strong economic data and supportive comments from Federal Reserve officials.

At 1:00 GMT, the Consumer Credit from the U.S. Federal Reserve for November was released, which showed a decline to 12.5B from the expected 15.5B and weighed on the U.S. dollar. However, at 18:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from the U.S. Department of Labor dropped to 214K from forecasted 221K and supported the U.S. dollar.

   

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 106.93
  • S2 107.9
  • S1 108.49
  • Pivot Point 108.87
  • R1 109.46
  • R2 109.84
  • R3 110.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair is trading bullish around 109.420 after breaking above a resistance level of 108.950. The way USD/JPY is forming bullish candles shows a strong buying bias among investors. We may see USD/JPY targeting the triple top resistance level around 109.700. 

Leading indicators are massively overbought, and USD/JPY is looking for a reason to trigger bearish retracement. 109.750 can offer this reason today. Let’s keep an eye on this level to capture a sell positon below this today. All the best! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 9 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Stronger Dollar In Play! 

The U.S. dollar rebounded for a second straight session on Wednesday, lifted by a stronger-than-expected ADP jobs report. The Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day to 97.31.

Safe-haven assets and currencies lost bids as the U.S.-Iran tensions showed no signs of escalation. USD/JPY marked a day-low of 107.64 before bouncing back to close at 109.04, up 0.6%.

The euro slid 0.4% to $1.1113. Official data showed that German factory orders declined 1.3% on month in November (+0.2% expected). Later today, the eurozone’s jobless rate for November will be released (steady at 7.5% expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

 


 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair rose slightly and representing 0.10% gain, mainly due to the greenback weakness despite the upbeat U.S. macro news and de-escalated tensions between the United States and Iran. The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1117 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1103 – 1.1119.

Despite the recent gain in the EUR/USD, the pair remains prone to further bearish risks amid bearish technical set up. Notably, the market is still cautious that the currency pair could show less reaction on the Industrial Production data after the EUR currency ignored the unexpected declines in the German Factory order, which is released on Wednesday.

At the data front, the eurozone’s manufacturing powerhouse Germany is set to publish Industrial Production, Current Account and Trade Balance data for November at 07:00 GMT. 

The industrial data is anticipated to show the factory activity increased at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.7% month-on-month in November, having dropped by 1.7% in the previous month. The annualized number is forecasted to print at -3.8% vs. September’s -5.3%. 

Whereas, Germany’s Current Account data for November is expected to arrive at EUR 16.9B vs. EUR 22.7B last. The Trade Balance figure is seen at EUR 20B as against EUR 20.6B booked in October. Imports are seen rising while Exports are expected to drop in the reported month.

On the other hand, the Industrial Production is hardly likely to see any positive surprise in November, as suggested by the lead indicators. 

The Industrial Production released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures outputs of the German factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are broadly understood as a significant sign of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high figure is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low number is considered as negative (or bearish).

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1015
  • S2 1.1068
  • S1 1.1088
  • Pivot Point 1.1122
  • R1 1.1141
  • R2 1.1175
  • R3 1.1228

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading in a bearish mode below a crucial trading level of 1.1130, testing the support next level of 1.1100. This level worked as a support during the previous days, but this time it seems to get violated as the EUR/USD has formed a strong bearish candle. The MACD is trading below 0 levels, which is suggesting odds of the bearish trend continuation for the EUR/USD. 

On the 4 hour chart, the pair had formed a bullish channel which has now been violated at 1.1130 level, and now this can lead the EUR/USD prices towards 1.1077 level. 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair is steady near the 200-weekly Moving Average with a slight bearish flow ahead of Brexit negotiations. The Cable is currently trading at 1.3108 and consolidates in the range between 1.3097 – 1.3115.

The GBP/USD currency pair has been confused due to the crossfire of risk-off and risk-on market sentiment after the missile attack and tensions in the Middle East. At this moment, the United States President Donald Trump de-escalated tension by not given any immediate reaction to an Iranian attack that help global trade deals to come back on the front.

Therefore, global trade deals are the key driver to watch. First of all, traders will keep their eyes on the United States and China phase-1 trade deal. As we know, both nations are ready to sign the agreement on January 15. The market focus will also be on the Brexit deal because the Europan Parliament also gives the green indicator, and the United Kingdom officially leaves the Europan Union on January 31 with a departure deal. After completing the departure deal, the United Kingdom will enter the transition period until December 31, 2020.

Looking forward, the global trade deal will be the key to watch, and traders will carefully follow any fresh news regarding the Brexit and Sino-US trade deal. The US-Iran fresh progress will be essential to watch. Apart from the headlines, the BOE Gov Carney will deliver the speech today. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 1.3296
  • R2: 1.3206
  • R1: 1.3151
  • Pivot Point 1.3116
  • S1: 1.3061
  • S2: 1.3026
  • S3: 1.2936

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD continues to trade with bearish bias after violating the 1.3045 support level. On the 4 hour chart, the pair has closed a bearish engulfing candle under 1.3045 support level, which is a proof of bearish breakout. Below 1.3045, the GBP/USD has a potential to trade lower until 1.3000 level and even towards 1.2910 support zone. 

The leading indicators, such as RSI and MACD, are also supporting the bearish bias among traders. I will consider taking selling positions below 1.3058 to target 1.3000 today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing green and representing 0.15% gains in the Asian trading hours mainly due to the greenback recovery in the wake of de-escalated tensions between the United States and Iran war after the Trumps sluggish speech overnight. The USD/JPY is currently trading at 109.33 and consolidates in the range between the 109.02 – 109.33.

As for the previous sessions, the USD/JPY currency pair hit the bullish track from the low of 107.65, mainly due to Iran’s missile attack but later returned to 108.45 by the London morning, having hit the high of 109.20 during the U.S. session. Ahead of the U.S. President Donald Trump’s speech, there were already signs rising from Iran for a de-escalation. As of consequence, markets turned into risk-on sentiment and thought that the U.S. would not take any revenge.

No damage was found in the missile attacks from Iran. This is why, rather than taking any military action, Trump said that he was imposing more restrictions on Iran. As of result, the risk recovered and yields rallied, ass well as greenback got the support.

At the data front, the ten-year yields recovered from 1.70% to 1.87% (was 1.79% at the Sydney close). There was a small drop back in the Sydney morning though on headlines reporting rockets being fired at the U.S. “green zone” in Baghdad, While markets are pricing a near-zero chance of rate cut at the next Fed meeting on January 29 but a terminal rate of 1.25% (vs Fed’s mid-rate at 1.63% currently).

As for U.S. data, the US Dec ADP private payroll is beat estimates with a job gain of 202k (est. 160k), and Nov was revised higher to 124k (from 67k), bringing it closer to the official data.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 106.93
  • S2 107.9
  • S1 108.49
  • Pivot Point 108.87
  • R1 109.46
  • R2 109.84
  • R3 110.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair is trading bullish around 109.420 after breaking above a resistance level of 108.950. The way USD/JPY is forming bullish candles shows a strong buying bias among investors. We may see USD/JPY targeting the triple top resistance level around 109.700. 

Leading indicators are massively overbought, and USD/JPY is looking for a reason to trigger bearish retracement. 109.750 can offer this reason today. Let’s keep an eye on this level to capture a sell positon below this today. All the best! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 7 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Risk-off Sentiment Dominates! 

The U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.3% on the day to 96.62 on Monday, as better-than-expected economic data lifted the euro and the pound.

The euro gained 0.3% to $1.1195. Official data showed that German retails sales grew 2.1% on month in November (+1.0% expected). The eurozone’s Sentix Investor Confidence Index climbed to 7.6 in January (2.6 expected) from 0.7 in December. 

The December Market Services PMI (final reading) was reported at 52.9 for Germany (52.0 expected) and 52.8 for the eurozone (52.4 expected)

Economic Events to Watch Today


 


 EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair remains on the bullish track, having hit the bullish mode in the previous two trading days, mainly becasue of upbeat macroeconomic data releases from Germany. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1193 and consolidates in the range between 1.1188 – 1.1198. The currency pair climbed 0.34% on Monday due to the EUR currency, which soared in the wake of upbeat Germany services PMI.

Looking forward, the EUR/USD currency pair will likely hit the five-month high above 1.1239 if the U.S. data shows deceleration or contraction in the coming non-manufacturing activity. However, the pullback from the recent high of 1.1239 has likely expired, and the rally from the November 29 low of 1.0981 has resumed.

Therefore, the currency pair may hit the level of 1.1239 and will likely break higher if the US ISM non-manufacturing data for December, which is scheduled to release at 15:00 GMT, release below the November figures of 53.9, signaling deceleration in the activity. A reading below 50 would imply contraction. By the way, the market is expecting a print of 54.5.

On the other hand, the big beat on expectations will confirm the Federal Reserves’ decision regarding pause in a rate cut, sending the greenback higher across the board.

Looking forward, the EUR/USD currency pair will likely take hints from the Eurozone retail sales data for November, which is scheduled to release at 10:00 GMT. At press time, EUR/USD is trading mostly unchanged on the day at 1.1193.

As of today, the Eurostat will release the inflation report and the Retail Sales figures. Traders expect the core Consumer Price Index to remain stable at 1.3% yearly in December. In the later part, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. will be looked upon for fresh direction.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1186
  • S2 1.1189
  • S1 1.1191
  • Pivot Point 1.1193
  • R1 1.1194
  • R2 1.1196
  • R3 1.1199

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On the 2 hour chart, the EUR/USD has tested the support level of 1.1130, which was being extended by the old triangle pattern. The U.S. Iran war sentiments are making EUR/USD weaker and are very likely to drive bullish bias until 1.1200 and 1.1245 level today. 

Speaking about the leading indicators, the RSI and MACD are holding in the buying zone, demonstrating the bullish trend in the EUR/USD pair today. Consider staying bullish until 1.1240 today.

 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair still flashing green and continued its recovery rally near 1.3172, mainly due to the high expectations that the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan will likely be passed in voting on the day. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.3171. The currency pair established notable gains yesterday in the wake of greenback weakness and unexpectedly better figures of the U.K. Serves PMI. 

Traders will keep their eyes on the British political news for fresh direction due to a lack of significant data and events on the calendar. On the other hand, the US-Middle East tension still on the fire without any major outcome, while the U.S. data, which is due today, will likely entertain the traders.

The United Kingdom Government will not argue on the Brexit deal anymore. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said they will negotiate a post-Brexit free trade deal with the United States and European Union.

The trader will keep their eyes on Brexit headlines due to a lack of significant data and events in the United Kingdom calendar. On the flip side, the lack of any result regarding the on-going US-Iran war increases the risk in the market, whereas the Sino-US trade headlines are again intensifying. Investors will carefully observe the Us data and political news for the fresh direction.

At the data front, the U.S. data calendar is worth watching, with the highlight of the non-manufacturing ISM survey for Dec. The consensus is for improvement from 53.9 in Nov to 54.5, with further interest in the employment sub-index for guidance on Friday’s non-farm payrolls data. 

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2914
  • S2 1.3025
  • S1 1.3097
  • Pivot Point 1.3137
  • R1 1.3209
  • R2 1.3248
  • R3 1.3359

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is also trading bullish around 1.3185 due to weakness in the U.S. dollar. The recent bullish engulfing candle is suggesting odds of bullish trend continuation in the GBP/USD pair. 

On the higher side, the GBP/USD may find resistance near 1.3185 level today while the support still stays at 1.3060. A bullish breakout of 1.3185 level can extend the bullish trend until 1.3285. Let’s stay bullish above 1.3125 today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is looking flat and consolidating in the narrow range between the 108.32 and 108.44, mainly due to the lack of any key scheduled data. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 108.41. However, the Japanese yen has been weak overnight. The USD/JPY currency pair hit the level of 108.45 from the 107.80 despite the United States and Iran threat.

The Europan nations also requested for peace and de-escalation of the current situation between the Us-Iran. Iran said that the United States need to worry regarding the retaliation, war is not on their agenda, and nor is it on the USA’s. In this regard, the U.S. stocks market continues to survive higher closes recovering from an initial risk-off plunge.

Eventually, the U.S. two-year Treasury yields rose from 1.51% to 1.56% the high, whereas the ten-year yields from 1.76% to 1.80%. Of course, the greenback is usually favored at times of war as well. 

It should be noted that the markets are pricing no change at the next Federal Reserve meeting on January 29 but a terminal rate of 1.26% (vs. Fed’s mid-rate at 1.63% currently).

On the other hand, the risk recovered after the comment came from the United States Defense Secretary Esper that the U.S. troops are not planning on pulling out of Iraq and that America would not target Iranian cultural sites if further hostilities break out.

At the USD front, the U.S. Dollar traded broadly bearish that hold the EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pair bullish, whereas the Japanese Yen lost ground due to recovery found in the Asian equities and Treasury yields.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 107.11
  • S2 107.69
  • S1 108.03
  • Pivot Point 108.27
  • R1 108.61
  • R2 108.85
  • R3 109.43

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading in a bearish channel, which is keeping it support near 107.750 for now. At the same time, the resistance is likely to be found around 108.250. The RSI and MACD are staying above 50 and 0, suggesting a bullish trend in the USD/JPY.

In the larger view, USD/JPY is staying in the long term descending channel that began at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Recovery from 104.45 also disappointed to support above 55 weeks EMA (presently at 109.02). The overall forecast prevails bearish and falls from 118.65 is in favor of extending through 104.45 low. Technically the pair has the potential to drop further until 107.800 level, and violation of this could continue selling until 107.600. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 6 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Iran Shakes The Market! 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 96.84 on Friday. Being regarded as a haven-asset, the Japanese yen strengthened against the greenback as geopolitical risks increased. USD/JPY dropped 0.5% to 108.09, the lowest level since mid-October.

The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1160. Official data showed that German’s jobless rate was steady at 5.0% in December as expected, while CPI grew 1.5% on year (+1.4% expected). 

Besides, Iran vowed “severe revenge” on the U.S., while President Donald Trump threatened major retaliation on Iran if they do anything.

Economic Events to Watch Today


 EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair hit the bullish track mainly due to U.S. Treasury yields, which dropped in the wake of risk-off sentiment. Besides, the greenback is also struggling to gain the ground. The EUR/USD pair is consolidating at 1.1164, consolidating in the range between the 1.1156 – 1.1172. 

The on-going tension between the United States and Iran further intensified during the weekend after Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s statement that Iran would take revenge for the U.S. killing of Iranian general Soleimani. The country also announced that it would not follow any restrictions imposed by the 2015 nuclear deal.

On the other hand, the United States President Donald Trump also gave warning regarding retaliation if the Iran attacks on United States personnel or assets.

The yield on the United States ten-year Treasury note dropped to a one-month low of 1.757% in Asia and is currently seen at 1.777% – down ten basis points on the day.

At the data front, the German retail sale for November and final PMI indices for December are scheduled for release. However, these data will likely avoid in the wake of geopolitical development.



Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1082
  • S2 1.1133
  • S1 1.1153
  • Pivot Point 1.1183
  • R1 1.1203
  • R2 1.1234
  • R3 1.1284

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On the 2 hour chart, the EUR/USD has tested the support level of 1.1130, which was being extended by the old triangle pattern. The U.S. Iran war sentiments are making EUR/USD weaker and are very likely to drive bullish bias until 1.1200 and 1.1245 level today. 

Speaking about the leading indicators, the RSI and MACD are holding in the buying zone, demonstrating the bullish trend in the EUR/USD pair today. Consider staying bullish until 1.1240 today.

 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair shifted to bullish track from the two-day losing streak, mainly due to broad-based greenback weakness. As of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.3160.

Just like the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD is also being influenced by the geopolitical tensions. On-going tension between the United States and Iran further intensified during the weekend after Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s statement that Iran would take revenge for the U.S. killing of Iranian general Soleimani. The country also announced that it will not follow any restrictions imposed by the 2015 nuclear deal. As a result, the U.S. dollar is getting weaker.

At the Brexit front, the United Kingdoms’ opposition Labour Party will decide the schedule for the election to choose the next leader on Monday. Moreover, it seems like the contender Keir Starmer already accepted the Brexit while Jess Phillips says if Brexit fails, she will likely to rejoin the European Union.

The United Kingdom Prime Minister will meet the Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President on Wednesday, and will likely discuss the Brexit process ahead. However, the daily mail hints that the senior Tory leaders are supporting Boris Johnson to kick off parallel post-Brexit trade talks with the U.S. to put pressure on the E.U. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2932
  • S2 1.3047
  • S1 1.3094
  • Pivot Point 1.3163
  • R1 1.321
  • R2 1.3278
  • R3 1.3393

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is also trading bullish around 1.3185 due to weakness in the U.S. dollar. The recent bullish engulfing candle is suggesting odds of bullish trend continuation in the GBP/USD pair. 

On the higher side, the GBP/USD may find resistance near 1.3185 level today while the support still stays at 1.3060. A bullish breakout of 1.3185 level can extend the bullish trend until 1.3285. Let’s stay bullish above 1.3125 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair found on the bearish track due to the risk-off sentiment in the market and a greenback’s weakness. The USD/JPY pair is trading at 108.00 and consolidates in the range between the 107.77 – 108.12.

On the front of main headlines, the on-going tension between the United States and Iran further intensified during the weekend after Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s statement that Iran would take revenge for the U.S. killing of Iranian general Soleimani. As a consequence, the markets have turned into risk-off sentiment, boosting demand for safe-haven assets like U.S. treasury, gold, and Japanese yen.

On the other hand, the United States President Donald Trump also gave warning regarding retaliation if Iran attacks the United States personnel or assets. Notably, we can expect further conflicting updates.

The United States’ two-year Treasury yields declined from 1.57% to 1.51%, the lowest since early Nov, ten-year yields from 1.88% to 1.79%. Markets are pricing a near-zero chance of rate cut at the next Fed meeting on January 29 but a terminal rate of 1.28%.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 107.24
  • S2 107.9
  • S1 108.23
  • Pivot Point 108.55
  • R1 108.89
  • R2 109.2
  • R3 109.86

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading in a bearish channel, which is keeping it support near 107.750 for now. At the same time, the resistance is likely to be found around 108.250. The RSI and MACD are staying above 50 and 0, suggesting a bullish trend in the USD/JPY.

Technically the pair has the potential to drop further until 107.800 level, and violation of this could extend selling until 107.600. All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 3 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – FOMC Meeting Minutes Ahead! 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded from its six-month low, gaining 0.4% on the day to 96.80. The investor will focus on the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy meeting minutes due later in the day. In Asian trading hours, safe-haven demand surged as the U.S. Defense Department confirmed that the U.S. military, “at the direction of the president,” killed Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in an airstrike in Iraq.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The Euro dropped 0.4% to $1.1171. Later today, German’s December jobless rate (steady at 5.0% expected) and CPI data (+1.4% on-year expected) will be reported. The contracted manufacturing PMI from Germany at the end of 2019 weighed on single currency Euro and dragged the pair EUR/USD below 1.120 on Thursday. 

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar rose today after a week on the release of U.S. initial jobless claims for December. The jobless claims for the previous week were in line with the expectations and supported the U.S. dollar.

The labor market of the United States showed signs of improvement, and American markets reacted positively to renewed hopes of growth in consumer spending. This could mean that the U.S. economy would grow with a moderate rate in 2020.

Meanwhile, the US-China trade deal developments had given some ease to the ongoing global economic slowdown when it was confirmed that the phase-one deal between the world’s two largest economies would be signed in mid –January. The strong U.S. dollar and weak Euro dragged the EUR/USD pair at the start of the New Year.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 1.1284
  • R2: 1.1234
  • R1: 1.1203
  • Pivot Point 1.1183
  • S1: 1.1153
  • S2: 1.1133
  • S3: 1.1082

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

Technically, the pair is trading at 1.1135, which is very closer to the bearish trendline support area of 1.1125. On the lower side, the EUR/USD is likely to find support around 1.1100 areas, which previously worked as a resistance for the EUR/USD. On the higher side, the EUR/USD may find resistance near 1.1150 and 1.1185 today.  

The RSI and MACD are holding in the bearish zone, suggesting chances of the bearish trend in the EUR/USD pair. Let’s stay bearish below 1.1180 and bullish above 1.1110 today. 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The British pound sank 0.8% to $1.3147, halting a six-day rally. Research firm Markit will release U.K. Construction PMI for December (45.9 expected). However, Boris Johnson has pledged that U.K. would leave E.U. on January 31 and has announced to make his Brexit deal as a law in case no transaction was secured by the end of 2020 with E.U. in terms of trade.

PM Johnson insisted that 11 months period was enough to reach a trade deal with E.U., but critics have argued that the timetable was too tight and could lead to a no-deal Brexit. This has been weighing on British Pound, and hence, GBP/USD started to fell at the start of the New Year.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar gained traction in the market after the losses of 6 consecutive days on Thursday. 

The trader’s comeback after the holidays gave strength to the U.S. dollar when they re-entered in the market, and the volume of trades increased. Strong U.S. dollar added in the pressure of GBP/USD and caused the pair to lose its gains from the previous day.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 1.3393
  • R2: 1.3278
  • R1: 1.321
  • Pivot Point 1.3163
  • S1: 1.3094
  • S2: 1.3047
  • S3: 1.2932

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

Just like the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD pair has also completed a bearish retracement until 1.3045, which marks 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement area. Three black crows on the 2-hour chart are signifying bearish bias among traders. At the moment, the Cable is trading around 1.3050 level, and it may surge a bit above the 1.3045 area to target 1.3150 today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 108.566 after placing a high of 108.864 and a low of 108.210. Overall the trend for USD/JPY remained bearish that day.

At 5:30 GMT, the Annual Challenger Job Cuts form the United States came in as-25.2% in comparison to the previous -16.0%. At 6:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims for the last week from the United States came in line with the expected 222K. AT 7:45 GMT, the Final Manufacturing PMI for December forms the United States was dropped to 52.4 from the expectations of 52.5 and weighed on the U.S. dollar.

The decline in the Manufacturing activity in the United States at the end of 2019 gave pressure to the U.S. dollar and dragged USD/JPY for 4th consecutive day on Thursday to the level of 108.2.

The US-China trade deal optimism gave strength to the U.S. dollar when it failed to grow the economy of China. In response to what, on Wednesday, the Chinese Central Bank announced that it was diminishing the quantity of cash that all banks need to hold as reserves around $15B. This move from China’s Central Bank was taken to improve the economic condition of the country.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 109.86
  • R2: 109.2
  • R1: 108.89
  • Pivot Point 108.55
  • S1: 108.23
  • S2: 107.9
  • S3: 107.24

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY was facing triple bottom support around108.400 level, which has now been violated after the USD/JPY completed 23.6% retracement at 108.700. The USD/JPY pair is trading in a bearish channel, which is likely to keep this pair bearish below 107.900. 

At the moment, the pair may find immediate support near 107.900, and violation of this could extend sell-off until 107.500. While resistance holds around 108.250 today, consider taking sell trades below 108.200 today.

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 2 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Trading Back to Normal! 

The U.S. dollar weakened against its major pairs on Tuesday. The ICE Dollar Index dropped 0.2% on the day to 96.53. U.S. President Donald Trump announced he would approve the phase one trade deal with China at the White House on January 15. Meanwhile, China’s central bank announced that it would lower the required reserve ratio for commercial banks by 50 basis points from January 6, releasing 800 billion yuan of liquidity into the financial system.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair hit the biggest-quarter high since the third quarter of 2017, possibly due to the optimism surrounding the United States and China trade deal. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair increased by 2.8% in the 4th quarter and currently trading at 1.1213. 

The pair remains above critical Fibonacci level, i.e., 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of June-October declines, at 1.1210 now. Eventually, the currency pair has started 2020 with the bullish sentiment.

The continued optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal and signs of stability in the Eurozone economy support further gains in the EUR currency. 

On the flip side, the latest report from the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) regarding stimulating growth is also supportive news for the EUR currency as China is Eurozone’s biggest trading partner. 

People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced 50 basis points into the Reserve Ratio Requirement (RRR) cut, which is scheduled to deliver on January 5. Besides this, commercial bankers will hold a reserve of 12.5% of their assets from now, while 10.5% for smaller institutions. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1196
  • S2 1.1205
  • S1 1.1209
  • Pivot Point 1.1213
  • R1 1.1218
  • R2 1.1222
  • R3 1.123

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On the technical side, the long upper wick attached to Tuesday’s candle is a tell-tale sign of buyer exhaustion. Meanwhile, the 4-hour chart is reporting a bearish divergence of the relative strength index and the MACD histogram. 

 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and dropped to 1.3210, mainly due to the fears of hard Brexit and thin trading conditions. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.3221 and consolidates in the range between the 1.3202 – 1.3266. The Cable recently turned into bearish mode from the two-weeks high.

The market’s risk sentiment has recovered due to increasing optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal. However, the greenback recovers at the start of 2020. As a result, the U.S. ten-year treasury yields and stocks are moderately positive.

Whereas the holidays in Japan and New Zealand will keep the market’s sentiment light, all traders will keep their eyes on the trade/Brexit. December’s manufacturing PMI data from the U.S. and the U.K. will also be the key to watch.

If no significant change comes from the UK/US data, a downbeat figure against 47.4 prior and 47.6 expected will likely increase the chances of further rate cuts from the Bank of England (BOE).


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3217
  • S2 1.3235
  • S1 1.3244
  • Pivot Point 1.3253
  • R1 1.3262
  • R2 1.3271
  • R3 1.3289

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On the technical side, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its December 12-23 fall, to around 1.3285, restricts the pair’s immediate upside, which in turn increases the chances of a pullback to 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels of 1.3210 and 1.3135 respectively.

The GBP/USD has broken the support mark of 1.3060, and currently, this level is expected to serve as a resistance for the GBP/USD. On the downside, the GBP/USD can exhibit further selling until the next target level of 1.2940.


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair stuck between the range of 108.60 – 108.75 and took some gain due to risk-on sentiment in the wake of the Chinese central bank’s rate cut. Moreover, the optimism surrounding the United States and China trade deal relations also play their role. 

The tensions of the Middle East and holidays in Asia’s major parts continue to limit the market’s reaction because traders are cautious ahead of the key data from China.

It is worth to mention that China’s People’s Bank of China (PBOC) gave an announcement regarding 50 basis points into the Reserve Ratio Requirement (RRR) cut, which is scheduled to deliver on January 5. As well as, major banks will hold a reserve of 12.5% of their assets from now, while 10.5% for smaller institutions. 

Moreover, the announcement came from the PBOC that financial institutions should stop doing the 1-year lending rate as its reference rate while start with the Loan Prime Rate as the base rate beginning January 1.

At the Sino-US front, the United States President Donald Trump’s tweeted about the confirmation of phase-one singing in a ceremony on January 15. Meanwhile, the Republican leader also said that he would later go to China to discuss the phase-2 of the deal. Eventually, the White House Advisor, Peter Navarro, also said that more positive deals with China are coming this 2020.

On the other hand, the market holidays in Japan and New Zealand limit the latest news reaction because the trader waits for the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI data for December. Apart from this, there is another reason behind the lack of smiling welcome to 2020 is the political war between the United States and the Middle East after the Pentagon’s defensive strikes into Iraq and Syria.

At the data front, the data becomes even more critical due to the latest official figures confirms the continued manufacturing recovery. Forecasts suggest 51.7 values against 51.8. Looking forward, the traders will closely follow the U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI for fresh direction.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.48
  • S2 108.61
  • S1 108.69
  • Pivot Point 108.74
  • R1 108.81
  • R2 108.86
  • R3 108.99

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY was facing triple bottom support near 108.400 level, which has pushed the USD/JPY higher towards a 23.6% retracement level of 108.700. Above this, the pair has the potential to go for 38.2% Fibo levels, which marks 108.900 resistance. 

Below the 108.900 level, we can expect a slight bearish reversal in the USD/JPY currency pairs until 108.600.  

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 30 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Market Expects Correction!

The U.S. dollar weakened against its major pairs on Friday, with the ICE Dollar Index sliding 0.6% on the day to 96.92. A Federal Reserve study pointed out that retaliatory tariffs issued in 2018 and 2019 have led to job losses and an increase in costs for the U.S. manufacturing industry.

Later today, economists expect wholesale inventories to rise by 0.2% on month in November. The Market News International Chicago PMI is expected to climb to 48 in December from 46.3 in November.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The Euro jumped 0.7% to a two-week high of $1.1181, and the British pound advanced 0.6% to $1.3077. The Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) has pointed a moderate recovery in the growth of manufacturing production. On the other hand, the growth of services output was also somewhat modest.

According to the European Central Bank, the economic conditions have started to calm down even though the inflationary pressure remains generally muted. ECB said that inflation in Eurozone had stabilized as well though it has not softened in recent months but has shown signs of improvement slightly.

EUR/USD advanced to 10 days the highest level of 1.11882 and showed a sharp rise in its prices on Friday on the back of positive comments from ECB. The increase in prices of pair EUR/USD was also caused by the weakened U.S. Dollar that day.

The EUR/USD pair has sensitive nature towards the global growth rate, and with the emerging trade optimism around the globe from the world’s two largest economies, the trend of Euro started to follow the dynamics and moved in an upward direction on Friday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0974
  • S2 1.1031
  • S1 1.1053

Pivot Point 1.1089

  • R1 1.1111
  • R2 1.1146
  • R3   1.1203

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with the bullish sentiment, testing the resistance level of around 1.1215 on the 4-hour chart. The bearish breakout of this level can trigger further selling until 1.1175. Conversely, the bullish bias can lead the EUR/USD to 1.1125. Let’s wait for selling trade below 1.1215 today.  

 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The British pound advanced 0.6% to $1.3077. There was no specific news related to Brexit, but GBP/USD pair before year-end raised its bars in the financial market on the back of the weakened U.S. dollar. Sterling increased 0.9% to $1.3117 on Friday, giving a bullish trend to the pair for 3rd consecutive day.

On the other hand, the New European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen said in an interview on Friday that Brexit transition may not be possible by the end of next year.

This statement from the Europe side was not surprising at all. E.U. has remained doubtful that a proper trade deal can be made, but UK PM Boris Johnson has continuously insisted that the time period of 11 months was enough to get to the finish line. However, the future of the U.K. & E.U.’s relationship after Brexit has no clarity until M.P.s return to work after holidays. 

U.K. Prime Minister has a majority in U.K. Parliament now and has a smooth track for Britain’s exit from the European Union, but E.U. has argued that period for setting trade deal was not enough, and it has raised concerns in the eyes of traders.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2757
  • S2 1.2901
  • S1 1.2955

Pivot Point 1.3044

  • R1 1.3099
  • R2 1.3188
  • R3 1.3331

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has broken the support mark of 1.3060, and currently, this level is expected to serve as a resistance for the GBP/USD. On the downside, the GBP/USD can exhibit further selling until the next target level of 1.2940.

The RSI and MACD have now crossed over 50 and 0 zone, suggesting chances of a bearish reversal in the GBP/USD pair. Consider staying bullish above 1.2995 and bearish below 1.3100 today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY lost 0.2% to 109.42. Adding in the downfall of USD/JPY that day was the weakened U.S. dollar. U.S. dollar index fell almost 0.6% to the level of 96.951 on Friday.

The increased risk factor caused the weakness of the U.S. dollar in the market after the positive sentiment around the globe related to US-China trade relations came in. The trade optimism gave investors concerns about the risk involved with it, and hence, the U.S. dollar loses its demand against other currencies before year-end.

Sine-US trade war has been weighing on the global economy for 18 months, and any positive trade news has massive effects on foreign exchange because of their direct link with international trade. 

Ahead of holidays, USD/JPY dropped amid thin volume trades in the market and less demand for the U.S. dollar.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.56
  • S2 108.97
  • S1 109.17

Pivot Point 109.38

  • R1 109.58
  • R2 109.8
  • R3 110.21

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has already completed the 50% Fibonacci retracement around 109.050 level. Now, this level is supporting the safe-haven pair along with an immediate resistance around 109.450. The RSI and MACD are suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. The couple may trade bearish below 109.450 to target 108.800. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 27 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Weaker Dollar In-Play

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 97.65 in thin holiday trading. The Euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1101, and the British pound gained 0.3% to $1.3001. The USD/JPY climbed 0.2% to 109.54.

The U.S. Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims fell to 222,000 in the week ended December 21 (220k expected) from 235,000 in the prior week. Today, the focus is going to be on the technical side of the market as the economic calendar remains muted. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

  


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD edged up 0.1% to $1.1101, and the British pound gained 0.3% to $1.3001. The U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping would have a ceremony to sign the phase-one of the trade deal reached earlier this month. 

Mr. Lowe also added that the E.U. was failing, so they rammed the Euro in. He said that Euro was destined to fail and would have collapsed by now if it was not for massive quantitative easing by ECB.

On the other hand, the macroeconomic calendar remained empty on Thursday except for the U.S. jobless claims for the previous week. The U.S. unemployment claims during last week were recorded as 222K, which came in line with the expectations. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0974
  • S2 1.1031
  • S1 1.1053

Pivot Point 1.1089

  • R1 1.1111
  • R2 1.1146
  • R3   1.1203

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with the slightly bearish sentiment, and it’s very likely to test the next support area around 1.1110 on the 4-hour chart. The bearish breakout of this level can trigger further selling until 1.1085. Conversely, the bullish bias can lead the EUR/USD to 1.1125 and 1.1160 resistance levels. Let’s wait for the buy trade above 1.1110 today.  

 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD gained 0.3% to $1.3001. Boris Johnson has announced to make his Brexit deal as law, and in case of not reaching a trade deal with E.U. by the end of next year, then U.K. will leave E.U. without any agreement. However, it was highly unlikely because PM Johnson now holds the majority of the U.K. Parliament. 

The Parliament has already approved his deal for leaving E.U., and there are fewer chances that E.U. & U.K. will not reach a trade deal. Furthermore, PM Johnson has also said that he would make sure the departure of the U.K. from the European Union on January 31.

The British economy has been showing weaknesses for some time, and it is possible that Bank of England would start easing its monetary policy soon, which will drag the GBP/USD pair back from 1.30 level.

In the U.K., the British Banker’s Association will report November finance loans for housing (41.2 billion pounds expected).

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2757
  • S2 1.2901
  • S1 1.2955

Pivot Point 1.3044

  • R1 1.3099
  • R2 1.3188
  • R3 1.3331

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has broken the support mark of 1.3060, and currently, this level is expected to serve as a resistance for the GBP/USD. On the downside, the GBP/USD can exhibit further selling until the next target level of 1.2940.

The RSI and MACD have now crossed over 50 and 0 zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal in the GBP/USD pair. Consider staying bullish above 1.2995 and bearish below 1.3100 today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY fell to 109.48. This morning, official data showed that Japan’s jobless rate dropped to 2.2% in November (2.4% expected and in October), while industrial production slid 0.9% on the month (-1.0% expected). Also, retail sales grew 4.5% (+5.0% expected).

The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Thursday that the central bank would ease its monetary policy further without hesitation if the momentum toward its 2% inflation goal came under threat.

He also offered a brighter view of the global economic outlook and said that the Bank of Japan would not rush to change its current policy for now. After a week after Central bank kept its short term rates target at -0.1% and long-term at 0%, Kuroda said that the trend of Japan’s economy was at moderate growth.

However, the easing of global trade tensions has reduced the chances that the central bank would ease its monetary policy further. Reduction in uncertainties over the US-China trade war has played an essential role in facilitating global economic conditions.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.56
  • S2 108.97
  • S1 109.17

Pivot Point 109.38

  • R1 109.58
  • R2 109.8
  • R3 110.21

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has already completed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 109.200 level. Now, this level is supporting the safe-haven pair along with an immediate resistance around 109.350. 

The RSI and MACD are suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. The pair may trade bearish below 109.50 to target 109.200 and even below to 108.950 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 23 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. Durable Goods Ahead! 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 97.68. The euro slipped 0.4% to $1.1079. The German GfK Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 9.6 for January (9.8 expected) from 9.7 in December.

The British pound was little changed at $1.3004. U.K. House of Commons voted 358 to 234 in support of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal. 

Regarding U.S. economic data, third-quarter GDP growth was confirmed at an annualized rate of 2.1% on the quarter (as expected). Meanwhile, personal income rose 0.5% on month in November (+0.3% expected) and personal spending grew 0.4% (as expected). Later today, economists expect durable goods orders to rise 1.5% on month in November, while new home sales are anticipated to fall to 730,000 units.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing red and dropped to 1.1080 and failed to extend Friday’s declines from 100- Day Moving Average. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1078 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1073 – 1.1083.

At the yearly front, the EUR/USD currency pair has lost a significant part of the gains during the January 2017 – February 2018 period and trading bearish while ending 2019. As of now, the pair is trading near the 1.1082, representing a 3.17% decline on a year-to-date basis. Notably, the pair dropped by 14.14% during 2018.

The greenback strength held ground against the EUR currency over intensifying trade tensions, which pushed Germany to the recession. Besides this, the European Central Bank further delivered the rate cut into the negative territory during September and declared a fresh bond-buying program.

The market is expecting that the EUR/USD currency pair may pick up the strong bullish buying in 2020. Whereas, the continued gains could remain difficult if the Eurozone economic data do not show any substantial progress.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0974
  • S2 1.1031
  • S1 1.1053

Pivot Point 1.1089

  • R1 1.1111
  • R2 1.1146
  • R3    1.1203

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with the slightly bearish sentiment, and it’s very likely to test the next support area around 1.1110 on the 4-hour chart. The bearish breakout of this level can trigger further selling until 1.1085. Conversely, the bullish bias can lead the EUR/USD to 1.1125 and 1.1160 resistance levels. Let’s wait for the sell trade below 1.1110 today. 

 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair failed to extend its bearish weekly streak despite the United Kingdom’s political uncertainty. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3013 and consolidates in the bearish range between the 1.2990 – 1.3017. Moreover, the cables traders seem to avoid declining political optimism in the United Kingdom.

The British pound was little changed at $1.3004. U.K. House of Commons voted 358 to 234 for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal.

The United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson succeeded in getting his European Union Withdrawal agreement bill passed from the new Parliament. Whereas, the House of Common has not passed the bill so far, but will have lesser stops considering the Tories majority.

The U.S. Commerce Department will release November durable goods orders (+1.5% on month expected) and new home sales (730,000 units expected). The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago will post November National Activity Index (-0.31 expected).


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2757
  • S2 1.2901
  • S1 1.2955

Pivot Point 1.3044

  • R1 1.3099
  • R2 1.3188
  • R3 1.3331

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has broken the support mark of 1.3060, and currently, this level is expected to serve as a resistance for the GBP/USD. On the downside, the GBP/USD can exhibit further selling until the next target level of 1.2940.

The RSI and MACD have now crossed over 50 and 0 zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal in the GBP/USD pair. Consider staying bullish above 1.2995 and bearish below 1.3100 today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY was broadly flat at 109.44. The USD/JPY currency pair flashing green and picked up the bids to 109.50, mainly due to the United States President Donald Trump Weeknd’s positive comments. The pair also got support from the United States upbeat data, which turned the market risk-on. 

On the Weekend holidays, the United States President Donald Trump said: “We have just achieved progress on the trade deal, and we will be signing it very soon. The same motivates the risk-takers to start the holiday-shortened week on a positive side.

It is worth to mention that the Fridays strong United States GDP hit down the talks of the slowdown. Moreover, the reason behind the greenback strength was the upbeat data from the U.S., including Personal Consumption Expenditure and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Looking forward, the market traders will take note of the November month U.S. Durable Goods Orders, up for publishing on Monday, to verify the fresh, positive data from the U.S. The report of Durable Goods Orders is anticipated to increase by 1.9% from downwardly revised 0.5% previous.

Besides this, the November month Chicago Fed National Activity Index, as well as New Home Sales, will also entertain traders before spreading the holiday mood. Whereas the activity gauge is anticipated to recover to -0.09 against -0.71 earlier, the housing data could soften to 0.728M against 0.733M prior.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.56
  • S2 108.97
  • S1 109.17

Pivot Point 109.38

  • R1 109.58
  • R2 109.8
  • R3 110.21

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has already completed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 109.200 level. Now, this level is supporting the safe-haven pair along with an immediate resistance around 109.350. 

The RSI and MACD are suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. The pair may trade bearish below 109.50 to target 109.200 and even below to 108.950 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 20 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – GDP Figures in Highlights! 

On the forex front, the British pound slid 0.5% to a two-week low of $1.3017, posting a three-day decline. Official data showed that U.K. retail sales dropped 0.6% on month in November (+0.2% estimated), falling for a fourth straight month–the worst run since 1996. On the other hand, the Bank of England held its benchmark rate at 0.75% unchanged as expected.

The European Commission will release the eurozone’s December Consumer Confidence Index (-7.0 expected). In Germany, the GfK Consumer Confidence Index for January will be published (9.8 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair exhibit bearish bias to hit the low level of 1.1117 from the Tuesday high of 1.1175 ahead of United States data release. At the moment, the EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1116 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1114 – 1.1126. The pair has dropped but still staying inside the one-week-old symmetrical triangle.

The EUR/USD currency pair’s weekly candle now has a long upper shadow, which is a significant clue of bulls losing steam above the resistance of the trendline dropping from September 2018 and June 2019 highs.

The currency pairs trendline resistance is currently seen at 1.1148. The pair had increased to a high of 1.1175 previously but dropped again below 1.1148 on the next day. As a result, the consecutive failure of buyers to beat the convincing break above the trendlines has supported the negative risks, which may increase if the United States data ignore past expectations. The data is scheduled to release today.

If the personal spending and Core PCE release unexpectedly come out better, they will validate the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to pause the rate cuts and push the greenback higher.

On the other hand, a big miss may fuel the greenback sell-off. Looking forward, the EUR/USD currency pair will turn bullish mainly if the pair beats the weekly close above the trendline hurdle at 1.1148.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1108
  • S2 1.1112
  • S1 1.1114

Pivot Point 1.1116

  • R1 1.1118
  • R2 1.112
  • R3 1.1124

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Friday, the EUR/USD continues to trade mostly sideways, while investors await the U.S. GDP figures. The EUR/USD is trading with slightly bearish sentiment, and it’s very likely to test the next support area around 1.1110 on the 4-hour chart

The bearish breakout of this level can trigger further selling until 1.1085. Conversely, the bullish bias can lead the EUR/USD to 1.1125 and 1.1160 resistance levels. Let’s wait for the sell trade below 1.1110 today. 

 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the bullish track and recovered to 1.3020, mainly due to optimism surrounding the Brexit due to the voting on the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s WAB. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3022. The GBP/USD traders seem confident ahead of the House of Commons voting on the UK PM’s Brexit bill.

The European Union Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) will allow the United Kingdom to leave the European Union on January 31 while it’s also arranging the stage for no transition period beyond December 2020. The bill will also allow more British judges to leave from the previous rulings of the European Union’s top court.

The U.K. Office for National Statistics will release final readings of third-quarter GDP (+1.0% on-year expected), current account (15.5 billion pounds deficit expected), and November public sector net borrowing excluding banking groups (6.1 billion pounds expected).

The voting result will be released at 15:00 GMT on Friday. Traders will likely watch the final figures of the United Kingdoms’ 3rd-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for new directions. According to the forecast, there will no change in the GDP figures on QoQ and YoY basis that are 0.3% and 1.0%, respectively.

Daily Support and Resistance

 

  • S3 1.2757
  • S2 1.29
  • S1 1.2955

Pivot Point 1.3044

  • R1 1.3098
  • R2 1.3188
  • R3 1.3331

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has broken the support mark of 1.3060, and currently, this level is expected to serve as a resistance for the GBP/USD. On the downside, the GBP/USD can exhibit further selling until the next target level of 1.2940.

The RSI and MACD have now crossed over 50 and 0 zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal in the GBP/USD pair. Consider staying bullish above 1.2995 and bearish below 1.3100 today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 109.366 after placing a high of 109.685 and a low of 109.180. Overall the trend for USD/JPY on Thursday remained bearish after the Bank of Japan kept its rates unchanged on Thursday at minus -0.1% the pair USD/JPY dipped in the financial market. 

The BOJ voted 7 to 2 to keep its short-term interest rates at -0.1% and the long-term rates at 0%. According to the Central Bank of Japan, the economy was likely to continue on a moderate expanding trend. The impact of the global economic slowdown on domestic demand was expected to be limited in the future. Although the fears of global economic slowdown still prevail in the market.

Recently, the government of Japan implemented a $122B fiscal stimulus package to aid economic growth. Japanese debt levels highly criticized this idea, but it was a wise decision as the government implemented a consumer tax hike after that.

The global economic outlook was raised after the phase-one deal between the U.S. & China and the victory of Johnson in Britain elections. Bank of Japan revised its GDP forecast for next year to 1.4% from the previous prediction of 1.2%.

The positive gestures and statements in Bank of Japan’s monetary policy statement on Thursday weighed on USD/JPY prices.

Adding in the downward trend of pair USD/JPY was the U.S. economic data that day. At 18:30 GMT, the Current Account Balance for the 3rd Quarter of the U.S. declined to -124B from -122B expectations. The Unemployment claims from last week surged to 234K from expected 225K. The C.B. Leading Index also fell to 0.0%, and the Existing Home Sales dropped to 5.35M from 5.44M of expectations.

On the other hand, the U.S. House of Representatives voted in favor of passing the impeachment of Donald Trump and made him third U.S. president to be impeached. However, the U.S. Senate of Republicans is still to vote on this, and it is expected that they will not vote against Trump.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • S3 108.56
  • S2 108.97
  • S1 109.17

Pivot Point 109.38

  • R1 109.58
  • R2 109.79
  • R3 110.21

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY has already completed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 109.200 level. Now, this level is supporting the safe-haven pair along with an immediate resistance around 109.350. 

The RSI and MACD are suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. The pair may trade bearish below 109.50 to target 109.200 and even below to 108.950 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 19 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for BOE Interest Rate

The U.S. Dollar Index was up for a second day, rising 0.2% to 97.40. The British pound lost 0.3% to $1.3085. Official data showed that U.K. core CPI grew 1.7% on year in November (as expected). On the other hand, the Bank of England is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 0.75% unchanged later today. Also, November retail sales will be reported (+0.2% on month estimated).

The euro dropped 0.3% to $1.1115. The German Ifo Business Climate Index climbed to 96.3 in December (95.5 expected) from 95.1 in November.

Later today, the U.S. Labor Department will report initial jobless claims for the week ending December 14 (225,000 expected, 252,000 in the prior week). Existing home sales are expected to slightly decrease to an annualized rate of 5.44 million units in November (5.46 million units in October).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing green and hit the bullish track from the average support and picked up some buying mainly due to greenback weakness. Although, the currency pair did not beat the 200-day Moving Average so far. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1126 and representing 0.14% gains. By the way, the pair is now consolidating in the range between the 1.1113 – 1.1133.

President Donald Trump was accused by the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday night for the abuse of power. The House also approved a 2nd-charge that Trump obstructed a Congress investigation. The greenback came under pressure after the impeachment news hit the wires. 

It should be noted that the declines in the greenback were modest and will likely be reversed during Europe as the Senate, which is controlled by Trump’s Republican Party, possibly absolve to him of all charges. Moreover, the chances of Donald Trump vacating office are low. Looking forward, the Senate trial will likely start in January. 

With the German economy showing indications of bottoming out and heading into New Year with more confidence, there seem fewer chances that EUR traders will pick up the selling trend.

From a technical perspective, the currency pair is currently trading in no man’s land. A close above the 200-day average at 1.1151 is needed to revive the short-term bullish setup. On the flip side, a break below Wednesday’s low of 1.1115 would imply a short-term bearish reversal. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1117
  • S2 1.1121
  • S1 1.1124

Pivot Point 1.1126

  • R1 1.1128
  • R2 1.113
  • R3 1.1134

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

Technically, the EUR/USD traded mostly sideways ahead of CPI, and German Business Climate figures. The EUR/USD is trading with a slightly bearish bias, and it’s very likely to test the bullish trendline on the 4-hour chart. The bullish trendline is expected to support the EUR/USD above 1.1125. Continuation of a bullish bias over 1.1125 can hold EUR/USD bullish unto 1.1160 and 1.1185. The EUR/USD’s next support lingers around 1.1095 today,

 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair still found under pressure and hit the weekly lows despite the greenback weakness and waiting for fresh clues from the United Kingdom data/events which are scheduled to be released. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3081 and consolidates in the range between 1.3072 – 1.3091.

At the USD front, the greenback showed a broad-based weakness mainly due to the House Representatives, which voted to impeach President Trump. The House also approved a 2nd-charge that Trump obstructed a Congress investigation. Moreover, the ball will meet the Senate someday during early January for the opposition Democrats to make Donald Trump as the 3rd in the history to get impeached.

The GBP currency traders will keep their eyes on the November month Retail Sales ahead of the monetary policy meeting of the Bank of England and the British Queens speech setting out the Conservative government’s agenda for the coming year. The trader will also carefully observe the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, Existing Home Sales, and Weekly Jobless Claims.

For now, BOE is likely to keep the rate unchanged at 0.75%. However, the markets are pricing a 65% probability of a rate cut by May 2020. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.295
  • S2 1.3019
  • S1 1.3049

Pivot Point 1.3089

  • R1 1.3118
  • R2 1.3159
  • R3 1.3229

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading with a slightly bullish bias now above 1.3178 as the pair has violated the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3240. Below the same mark, the 50 periods EMA is likely to provide resistance to the GBP/USD. 

The RSI and MACD are holding in the oversold zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal upon completion above the double bottom support level of 1.3095. Today, consider taking buying trades above 1.3100 and bearish trades below 1.3178. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair dropped from the weekly high after the United States House of Representatives voted to impeach President Donald Trump. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair s currently trading at 109.60 even after the status quo BOJ and remains stuck in the same range between the 109.56 – 109.59.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained the short-term interest rate at -0.1 and kept the 10-year yield target unchanged around 0%, as expected. The risk-off sentiment is expected to remain ahead. The United States’ ten-year treasury yields fell to 1.90%, whereas the S&P 500 Futures also decreases.

Looking forward, traders will keep their eyes on the monetary policy decision by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Ahead of the releases, analysts at T.D. Securities said, “The Bank Of Japan will continue its last meeting of the year. This should move with little fanfare because the BOJ has made the necessary changes in October.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.07
  • S2 109.3
  • S1 109.43

Pivot Point 109.53

  • R1 109.66
  • R2 109.76
  • R3 109.99

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

From the technical perspective, a breakout, if confirmed, would imply a resumption of the rally from the December low of 108.46 and may yield a rally to 110.00. On the flip side, range breakdown will likely allow a re-test of support at 109.20-109.00. 

On the technical side, the USD/JPY consolidates below 109.700 resistance level.

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is supporting the USD/JPY pair around 109.200 level. While the RSI and MACD are suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. The pair may trade bearish below 109.53 to target 109.200 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 19 – Bitcoin above $7,000 while the market is in the green

Bulls have retaken the crypto market after quite a few red days. Most cryptocurrencies gained some value on the day, with some growing in value exponentially. Bitcoin gained 6.37%, and it is trading for $7060 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, Ethereum increased its price by 1.88%, while XRP gained 1.65%.

Aidos Kuneen, on the other hand, gained 50.04% on the day, making it the biggest daily gainer. Out of the cryptos that ended up in the red, the biggest loser was Centrality, which lost 4.71% of its value on the day.

Bitcoin’s dominance increased yet again in the past 24 hours, as cryptocurrencies (on average) gained less value than it did. Its dominance in percentage is currently 67.95%, which represents an increase of 0.36% when compared to the value it had yesterday.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization rose in the past 24 hours as the individual cryptocurrencies gained. Its total market value is currently $187.39 billion. This value represents a decrease of $7.39 when compared to the value it had yesterday.

What happened in the past 24 hours

Recent statistics show that 14.4% of Americans own at least some cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency accounting firm Lukka announced its “do-it-yourself” cryptocurrency tax preparation software that is suited for retail investors. The product will come live just in time for the 2019 tax season.

Lukka’s main focus was providing institutional-grade solutions to crypto funds in the past. However, the company decided to expand to the retail investor market.

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

After almost a week of its price continously falling, Bitcoin finally had a decent green day. In fact, the past 24 hours were amazing for Bitcoin price-wise. Its price went from $6,400 all the way to $7,500 before settling at around $7,050 for now. Many analysts show that Bitcoin is now bullish in the short-term.


Bitcoin’s volume has currently increased, while its RSI was dangerously approaching overbought territory. However, that quickly ended, and its RSI is now approaching the middle of the value range.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $7,260                                           1: $6,940

2: $7,415                                           2: $6,410

3: $7,525


Ethereum

Ethereum has had a great day as well, though not as good in terms of the price increase as Bitcoin. Ethereum spent the past couple of days repeating the same price pattern over and over. Its price dropped severely during a short period, following by it trying to consolidate just above its lows for the day. Similar to yesterday and the day before, Ethereum started losing value extremely quickly.  However, the $117 line held up quite well, and Ethereum bounced off of it to $135. However, Ethereum’s direction is still unknown as the price fell back down to $128 at the time of writing.


If Ethereum falls under $117, new support levels will have to form naturally as Ethereum does not have any “prepared” ones yet.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $120.35                                            1: $117

2: $128.1

3: $130


Ripple

XRP did not have a bad day, either. Its price gained some value today, too, while the gains were quite marginal compared to Bitcoin’s gains. XRP’s price found support in the $0.176 level, which propelled it to $0.2. However, that was just a short-term gain as XRP started going down almost as quickly as it went up. With the current price of $0.1865, XRP has not broken any resistance lines since the price started rising.


Unlike Bitcoin, which had its RSI almost reach overbought levels during the price spike, XRP has its RSI still walking on the edge of being oversold.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $0.19                                              1: $0.176

2: $0.198                                            2: $0.16

3: $0.2045

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 18 – Bears hitting the Crypto Market yet Again

Bears seem to have taken over the crypto market yet again this week. Cryptocurrencies keep falling further and further down each day. Bitcoin held up better than most of them, while the majority of the market lost over 5% on the day. Bitcoin fell by 3.49% in the past 24 hours, and it is trading for $6.652 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, Ethereum dropped by 7.26%, while XRP fell 6.92%.

Silverway, on the other hand, was the crypto that gained some value today. Its price increased by 21.96%, making it the biggest daily gainer. Out of the cryptos that ended up in the red, the biggest loser was Kyber Network, which lost 18.61% of its value on the day.

Bitcoin’s dominance increased yet again in the past 24 hours, as cryptocurrencies lost far more value than it did. This time, however, the increase was marginal. Its dominance in percentage is currently 67.58%, which represents an increase of 0.35% when compared to the value it had yesterday.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization lost quite a bit of value yet again. Its total market value is currently $180 billion. This value represents a decrease of $6.45 when compared to the value it had yesterday.

What happened in the past 24 hours

Cryptocurrency regulation is coming to Europe as well. The Fifth Anti-Money Laundering Directive (or 5AMLD for short) is a piece of legislation that intends to bring regulation to fiat-to-crypto exchanges as well as custodial wallets that operate in the European Union. All exchanges must comply with the legislative rules by January 10, 2020.

David Carlisle, the former US Treasury Anti-Money Laundering (AML) specialist, acknowledged that regulation might hurt crypto companies in the short term. However, he thinks that, in the medium and long term, regulation will enable and improve adoption and success for the companies who choose to embrace it.

On the other hand, Russian legislators are still struggling to define the legal status of cryptocurrencies. That has been the case since at least 2017, which is when the first bill was getting drafted. There has been no regulatory action announced by the Russian government so far.

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Another red day for Bitcoin , another broken support level . Bears have taken over the market for now and the price has definitely shown that. Bitcoin broke the $6,640 key support level which put it in a very vulnerable spot. Its price is now hovering right below this level, trying to return and stabilize above it.


Bitcoin’s volume is incredibly high when compared to its average last week’s daily volume. Its RSI is in the oversold territory for quite some time now, but it seems like it will manage to reach non-oversold values soon.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $6,640                                           1: $6,505

2: $7,000                                           2: $5,940

3: $7,314


Ethereum

Ethereum is repeating the price pattern it had yesterday, almost to a tee. Its price dropped severely and, then, tried to consolidate just above its lows for the day. Similar to yesterday, Ethereum lost close to 8% of its value.  The current price of ETH/USD is currently $123, which is quite problematic as the cryptocurrency broke all of its current support levels. It will have to find some significant support as soon as possible, or its price will dwindle down.


Ethereum’s volume extremely high at the moment, while its RSI value is deep in the oversold territory.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $128.1                                             1: $120.35

2: $130                                              2: $117

3: $133.5


Ripple

XRP did not lose as much price-wise as yesterday, but it is still lost quite a bit (over 6%). Its price drop continues as it broke all of the known key support levels. It is still unknown where XRP might find its support levels, as the $0.19 level was broken as well.


XRP’s volume skyrocketed in the past 24 hours as bears “played” with its price. As with Bitcoin and Ethereum, its RSI values are deep in the oversold territory.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $0.19                                              1: $0.1785

2: $0.2025                                          2: $0.1634

3: $0.207

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 18 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes On UK CPI!

On the forex front, the British pound plunged 1.6% to $1.3122, wiping out its gains since the election day last Thursday. Media reported that U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson might amend the withdrawal agreement bill to block any further extension of Brexit. Hence the prospect of a no-deal Brexit is still on the table.

Also, the U.K.’s official data showed that the jobless rate for the three months to October was steady at 3.8% (3.9% expected). Later today, investors will focus on U.K. consumer inflation data for November (CPI +1.4% on year expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair remains in the red territory and hits the strong bearish track after got repeated rejection to cross the 200-day Moving Average resistance. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1133, representing a 0.14% declines on the day and consolidates in the range between 1.1131 – 1.1155.

The EUR/USD pair hit the high level of 1.1155 but failed to beat the 200-day Moving Average resistance. Looking forward, the currency pair will likely pick up further selling trend if the German data disappoints expectations, whereas if the German data beats expectations figures, the currency pair can beat the 200-day Moving average.

It should also be noted that the buyers failed to secure a daily close above the long-term average for the 4th-straight day on Tuesday because the range between the United States and German ten-year bond yields increased nearly 5-basis points to 218 basis points.

Looking ahead, the German IFO survey, scheduled to release at 09:00 GMT, is expected to show the expectations index increased to 93.0 in December from 92.1, according to the latest survey of analysts. 

As we recently mentioned that an above-forecast figure is needed to confirm last week’s ZEW survey, which showed the German economy has bottomed out and draws bids for the EUR currency. Moreover, an upbeat on expectations will likely yield a move above the 200-day MA at 1.1151.

The European Central Bank’s President, Lagarde, is scheduled to speak at 08:30 GMT. Lagarde is unlikely to sound dovish and will likely repeat the need for fiscal stimulus. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1062
  • S2 1.1107
  • S1 1.113

Pivot Point 1.1153

  • R1 1.1176
  • R2 1.1198
  • R3 1.1243

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

Technically, the EUR/USD traded mostly sideways ahead of CPI, and German Business Climate figures. The EUR/USD is trading with a slightly bearish bias, and it’s very likely to test the bullish trendline on the 4-hour chart. The bullish trendline is likely to support the EUR/USD above 1.1125. Continuation of a bullish bias over 1.1125 can hold EUR/USD bullish unto 1.1160 and 1.1185. The EUR/USD’s next support lingers around 1.1095 today,

 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and hit the four-day lows of 1.309 down -0.30% on the day. The currency pair continues its bearish streak and still under pressure. That is mainly due to hard Brexit fears intensified after UK PM Johnson’s confirmed to the parliament that his office planned to ensure by law that the U.K.’s post-Brexit departure period will end in Dec 2020. 

As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading 1.3102 and consolidates in the range between the 1.3072 – 1.3135.

It should be noted that the departure uncertainty regarding Brexit was always considered as the risk faced by the GBP currency, but it was priced in sooner than anticipated. As a result, the soft Brexit premium is currently being priced out of GBP, and buyers have been sent back from the buying track.

At the greenback front, the U.S. Dollar (USD) benefited from the upbeat industrial production and housing market numbers along with the welcome comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. The greenback also got the support of trade-related positive statements from the Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.

Looking forward, the GBP buyers will closely observe the November month inflation data, whereas the Fed speak will likely offer additional hints. In this regard, T.D. Securities said, “We look for CPI to edge a touch lower to 1.4% y/y in November (market 1.5%). Underlying this, we expect core CPI to hold unchanged at 1.7% y/y (market 1.6%) for the 3rd-month in a row. 


Daily Support and Resistance 

  • S3 1.2774
  • S2 1.2976
  • S1 1.3054

Pivot Point 1.3178

  • R1 1.3256
  • R2 1.338
  • R3 1.3581

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is trading bearish below 1.3178 as the pair has violated the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3240. Below the same mark, the 50 periods EMA is likely to provide resistance to the GBP/USD. 

The RSI and MACD are holding in the oversold zone, suggesting odds of a bullish reversal upon completion above the double bottom support level of 1.3095. Today, consider taking buying trades above 1.3100 and bearish trades below 1.3178. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 109.472 after placing a high of 109.632 and a low of 109.441. Overall the trend for USD/JPY pair remained bearish that day.

On the data side, at 2:00 GMT, the U.S. Department of the Treasury published the TIC Long-Term Purchases for October, and it showed a decline to 32.5B from expected 52.2B and weighed on U.S. dollar.

The Building Permits from the United States showed growth in November when released at 18:30 GMT. In the previous month, it was expected that 1.41M building permits would be issued. Still, according to the reports, the number of actual building permits in November exceeded the expectations and came in as 1.48M to support the U.S. dollar.

The number of U.S. residential buildings that began construction during November also exceeded the expectations and supported the U.S. dollar on Tuesday. It was expected that 1.34M house buildings would start its construction, but in actual 1.37M, housing starts.

At 19:15 GMT, the Capacity Utilization Rate from Federal Reserve was published, which showed that 77.3% of available resources were being utilized during November. The expected figure was almost the same 77.4% and did not affect the U.S. dollar. However, Industrial Production from the United States for November also increased to 1.1% from expected 0.8% and supported the U.S. dollar.

At 20:00 GMT, the JOLTS Job Openings for October showed growth to 7.27M from the expected 7.01M and supported the U.S. dollar. And at 20:01 GMT, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism for the month of December was surged to 57.0 from forecasted 54.2 and supported U.S. dollar on Tuesday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.14
  • S2 109.34
  • S1 109.42

Pivot Point 109.53

  • R1 109.62
  • R2 109.72
  • R3 109.92

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the technical side, the USD/JPY consolidates below 109.700 resistance level. The same level marks a triple top pattern has the USD/JPY faced a hard time violating it back on Dec 1, 13, and 16. 

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is supporting the USD/JPY pair around 109.200 level. While the RSI and MACD are suggesting chances of further selling in the USD/JPY pair. The pair may trade bearish below 109.53 to target 109.200 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 17 – Bitcoin below $7,000, investors buying the dip

Bitcoin, as well as the majority of the cryptocurrency market, had a significant price drop in the past 24 hours. The psychological resistance of $7,000 has been broken to the downside. Most cryptos stabilized for now, but no one knows where this price action will lead us. Bitcoin fell by 2.87% in the past 24 hours, and it is trading for $6.881 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, Ethereum lost a staggering 8.13%, while XRP fell 9.01%.

There were, however, cryptocurrencies that gained some value in the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency that gained the most was Waves, which increased in price by 23.97%. On the other hand, the biggest loser of the day was EDUCare, which lost 16.92% of its value on the day.

Bitcoin’s dominance skyrocketed in the past 24 hours, as cryptocurrencies lost far more value than it did. Its dominance in percentage is currently 67.23%, which represents an increase of 1.14% when compared to the value it had yesterday.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization plunged due to the price drop of almost every single large cryptocurrency. Its total market value is currently $186.45 billion. This value represents a decrease of $7.09 when compared to the value it had yesterday.

What happened in the past 24 hours

The price drop that occurred was not a surprise for most people, though many expected it to be a bit less sudden and explosive. However, not everything is terrible.

Traders and long-term investors are buying into this dip, which suggests that they view the price drop as an opportunity to open their long positions or accumulate more Bitcoin.

Further proof of this can be found in the seemingly unaffected level of Bitfinex BTC/USD longs. The number of long positions that opened skyrocketed after the drop has happened, and it is still on the increase. On top of that, the significant rise in long positions started near the end of November.


_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin broke yet another key support as its price plunged below $7,000. The price is currrently trying to stabilize at around $6,850. It’s currently bound by the $7,000 line which now turned resistence, as well as the $6,640 support line.


Bitcoin’s volume soared during the price drop but quickly dwindled to its regular levels. RSI finally went into the oversold territory after hovering around it for many days. The key level of $7,000 moves to the “upside” key levels.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $7,000                                           1: $6,640

2: $7,314                                           2: $6,505

3: $7,415


Ethereum

Ethereum also had a major price drop. However, this one was far bigger than the one Bitcoin had. Ethereum fell under another key support line. The pressure on the downside was so strong that the price fell over 8% in just 24 hours. However, it quickly found support after dropping below the key level. It is now stabilizing just above $130.


Ethereum’s volume is slightly below average when compared to the past couple of days if we take away the significant volume spike that occurred during the price drop. Its RSI value is deep into the oversold territory.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $133.5                                             1: $130

2: $144.1                                           2: $128.1

3: $150.5


Ripple

The biggest loser out of the top3 cryptocurrencies by market cap was XRP. Not only it lost most of its value (over 9% on the day), but it also broke all of the known key support levels. Its price movement to the downside, as well as the support levels it may form, are an enigma for now. There certainly have been some levels that had some traction, but these possible support levels are from over two years ago, and it is still unknown if they are valid. All we know is that, for now, XRP stabilized and created an immediate support level at $0.19.


Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $0.2025                                          1: $0.19

2: $0.207

3: $0.2117

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 13 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Borish Johnson’s Takes a Lead! 

Welcome to the last trading day of a week. The British Pound surged 2.1% to a six-month high of $1.3474. U.K. exit polls predicted that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative party would win a majority in the House of Commons.

The euro advanced 0.5% to $1.1184. While the European Central Bank kept its monetary policy unchanged as expected, President Christine Lagarde said there are some indications of stabilization in the slowdown in the Eurozone’s growth and downside risks are less pronounced.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.


AUD/USD – Daily Analysis

The AUD/USD currency pair flashing green and hit the fresh one-month highs closer to the 0.690 levels. The AUD/USD currency pair is trading at 0.6909 and consolidates n the range between 0.6867 – 0.6910. The AUD/USD did not take any effect from the greenback strength and had continued its bullish rally.

The buying tone surrounding the China-proxy Aussie seemed rather unaffected by persistent risk regarding a phase one trade deal ahead of the December 15 deadline for the new U.S. tariffs on around $156 billion worth of Chinese imports.

At the Sino-US front, the U.S. President Donald Trump is yet to decide on the December 15 tariffs, though optimism continues on the back of news that negotiators were laying the groundwork for a preliminary deal to end the trade war.

Looking forward, Thursday’s U.S. economic docket, featuring the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), will likely influence the USD price dynamics and produce some short-term trading opportunities during the early North-American session.

Daily Support and Resistance 

  • R3 0.7038
  • R2 0.6977
  • R1 0.6953

Pivot Point 0.6915

  • S1 0.6891
  • S2 0.6854
  • S3 0.6793

AUD/USD– Trading Tips

The AUD/USD pair is hanging around 0.6900, trading mostly bullish despite staying in the overbought zone. The traded higher further above the 0.6865 mark, the 61.8% Fibo retracement level of its November slide. In the 4-hour chart, the 20 SMA has hastened north over the bigger ones, all of them under the current mark. In contrast, the technical indicators lead to the north in overbought territory, without indications of bullish exhaustion. The rally is set to remain on a break over 0.6930, the next resistance.


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The British Pound surged 2.1% to a six-month high of $1.3474. U.K. exit polls predicted that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative party would win a majority in the House of Commons.

The British Pound advanced piercingly overnight following the Conservative Party of Boris Johnson, who won a substantial majority in the General Election, and while the GBP has found a temporary resistance. Fundamentally, I do see the potential for further gains after sterling completes the bearish retracement. 

Besides this, the focus is on trade wars whereby an official announcement is expected to come from U.S. President Donald Trump. Bloomberg reported in recent trade that Trump would meet with his trade advisers at 19:30 GMT. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, White House economic adviser Kudlow and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are expected to attend the meeting.

The latest reports are that the United States has considered offering a 50% reduction on $360 billion worth of Chinese imports, which raised market spirits, fulling higher benchmarks and gave an increase in U.S. Treasury bond yields. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2969
  • S2 1.3071
  • S1 1.3133

Pivot Point 1.3173

  • R1 1.3235
  • R2 1.3276
  • R3 1.3378

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD is presently consolidating around at1.3457, placing around 19-month high to 1.3515 during the U.S. session yesterday. The U.K. election exit polls foretelling a big win for the incumbent Prime Minister Boris Johnson. 

The GBP/USD pair’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is now floating around 80.47. I must say it’s the highest mark since January 2018. An above 70-reading shows overbought situations. Consider capturing retracement below 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair was flashing green and climber from 108.60 to 109.30, hit the highest level for one-week mainly due to the latest trade headlines in which U.S. President Trump suggests an imminent deal with China. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.36 and consolidates in the range between 108.45 – 109.44.

Fresh expectations regarding a deal between the United States and China on tariffs before the December 15 deadline supported equity markets. The Dow Jones reached new record highs and now is up 0.35%, off highs as the optimism eased. 

The United States bonds fell, pushing the yen lower across the board. The United States’ ten-year yield raised by more than 5% as it soared to 1.90% from 1.80% just in a few minutes. Other save haven assets like gold, also dropped significantly. 

More headlines related to trade may continue to flow, giving an impact on market sentiment. The rally of the USD/JPY was also supported by technical factors. The pair climbed above the 109.00 area, breaking a 7-day trading range. It also rose back above the 20-day moving average that stands at 108.80, level that could be seen now as the immediate support. The next support is the lower limit of the mentioned range around 108.40.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 107.94
  • S2 108.28
  • S1 108.42

Pivot Point 108.61

  • R1 108.75
  • R2 108.94
  • R3 109.27

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY rose 0.8% to 109.40 as investors’ risk appetite grew. The pair is heading towards the double top resistance level of around 109.700. Below this, the USD/JPY is likely to show a bearish correction of up to 38.2% level, which stays at 109.200. 

On the higher side, the bullish breakout of USD/JPY can lead the Japanese pair towards 110.300. The MACD and RSI are in support of the bullish trend. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 11 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for FOMC & Fed Rate!

The forex market extends trading sessions mostly with the mixed sentiments as the trader’s eye remains on the Fed Policy decision and CPI rate today. The FOMC will publish its policy statement, and Chairman Powell will be giving his comments on the policy standpoint. Ahead of this event, the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.22% at 97.45 on Tuesday, supporting the pair stay relaxed above the 0.6800 handles. 

Today, the trader’s focus will stay on the U.S. Monetary Policy and CPI rate from the U.S. Let’s brace for it. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals. 


AUD/USD – Daily Analysis

The AUD/UD currency pair flashing green and rose to 0.6835, mainly due to the upbeat data from Australia and unexpectedly higher inflation figures from China. As of writing, the AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6814 and consolidates in the range between the 0.6800 – 0.6837.

The currency pair struggled to maintain its recovery rally due to a lack of progress surrounding the United States and China trade war and fell to a fresh weekly low of 0.6800 before recovering modesty.

The National Australia Bank’s Business Conditions Index remained unchanged at 4 in November, but it beat the expectations of 2. On the other, the annual House Price Index for the third quarter came in at -3.7%, after a second quarter’s figure of -7.4%, which supported the Australian Dollar.

In the second half of the day, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the U.S. and China’s trade negotiators are working toward delaying the December 15 tariff hike. That gave a boost to the market sentiment and trade-sensitive AUD.

During the Asian session on Wednesday, Westpac Consumer Confidence Index from Australia, which is expected to drop to -0.7% in December from 4.5% in November, will be keeping under the eyes. 

Following in the day, the FOMC will release its policy statement, and Chairman Powell will be delivering his remarks on the policy outlook. Ahead of this event, the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.22% at 97.45 on Tuesday, supporting the pair stay relaxed above the 0.6800 handles.

While reviewing Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, “after three cuts in a series, we expect the Fed to remain on hold (target range 1.50-1.75%) when it meets next week,” said Danske Bank analysts. “FOMC members have made it clear that they think the ‘current stance of monetary policy is appropriate’ and that they now want to wait some time and see how everything plays out before acting again.”


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 0.6795
  • S2 0.6811
  • S1 0.6817

Pivot Point 0.6826

  • R1 0.6833
  • R2 0.6842
  • R3 0.6858

AUD/USD– Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the AUD/USD is consolidating mostly bearish after falling below 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6820. It has also completed 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6795. The AUD/USD pair is now trading around 0.6808, in between the upper limit of 0.6820 and a lower limit of 0.6795. 

 A bearish breakout of 0.6795 level can extend selling until 0.6775. The MACD is holding below 0, suggesting the chances of a bearish trend continuation in Aussie. Let’s look for buying above 0.6775 and selling below 0.6820level. 

 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing green and hit the seven-months high from the bearish level of 1.3132 to 1.3189 while heading toward the United Kingdom elections on Thursday, and the result of elections will be released early Friday morning. As of writing, the currency is currently trading at 1.3188 and consolidates in the range between the 1..3132 to 1.3197.

According to the current situation, the Tories are ready to win the U.K. election, which may put the Brexit deal to bed. Today, the United Kingdom’s economic data don’t take a front seat due to the election hype, despite flat figures for Gross Domestic Produce for October. 

The GDP figures have followed 2-consecutive monthly contractions, which means we have now seen 3-consecutive months of negative/zero m/m growth for the 1st-time since 2009.

It should be noted that after this week’s snap December election, the next difficulty for the United Kingdom markets is next week’s Bank of England decision. However, the United Kingdom data continues to fall at a moderate rate since the last BoE meeting, which drives the dovish sentiment regarding the next rate decision. 

Looking forward, the markets will keep their focus on the Federal Open Market Committee and the Federal Reserve after the interest rate decision. Rates are expected to remain stable at 1.50-1.75%, while patience rhetoric will follow previous Federal Reserve speeches and statements furnished with preconditions before rate cut again in the future. 

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3056
  • S2 1.3104
  • S1 1.3124

Pivot Point 1.3153

  • R1 1.3173
  • R2 1.3202
  • R3 1.325

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The cable pair holds a bullish tone, but it is showing some short-term bearish signals after being unable to stay on top of 1.3160. Nevertheless, the trend in the pair points clearly to the upside, and consolidation of the GBP/USD above 1.3180 would expose the pair towards 1.3200. The prices need to cross May month high near 1.3180 to target 1.3200 and 1.3270 figures to the north, declining to do so highlights Wednesday’s top surrounding 1.3120 as immediate support. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the bullish track and reached 108.75, mainly due to the Wall Street Journal reported that the United States and China trade talks are working toward delaying the tariff hike. After fastening to a fresh daily bullish of 108.75, the pair USD/JPY currency pair reversed slightly and was last seen trading at 108.62, where it was up 0.05% on a daily chart.

The U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are planning for a delay of a fresh round of tariffs set to impose on December 15, according to officials on both sides. The market reaction to this headline also provided the ten-year United States Treasury bond yield to cancel its daily losses and helped the S&P 500 futures to move into the positive territory, pointing out to a positive shift in the market sentiment.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index remains to move sideways a little above the 97.50 marks to allow the risk perception to continue to drive the pair’s action.

At the starting of today, the NFIB Business Optimism Index in the U.S. increased to 104.7 during November from 102.4, but the Unit Labor Costs rose 2.5% in the 3rd-quarter to drop short of the market expectation for an increase of 3.3%. But, these readings were largely ignored by the market members ahead of the FOMC’s monetary policy announcements on Wednesday. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.06
  • S2 108.31
  • S1 108.43

Pivot Point 108.56

  • R1 108.68
  • R2 108.8
  • R3 109.05

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY is likely to trade sideways until the release of FOMC and U.S. inflation rates. The pair is trading above 108.550, which is working as a double bottom support level. A bearish breakout of this level can trigger selling until 108.250. The USD/JPY has already completed 81% retracement on three hourly charts, and this level can give some support to USD/JPY. Above this, the pair may find resistance around 108.900. Let’s wait for FOMC to determine the further trend of USD/JPY. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 10 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on British GDP Figures! 

The market continues to trade mixed risk sentiment due to diminishing expectations of no interest rate cuts by the Fed and delay in the trade deal. The top White House Economic Adviser, Larry Kudlow, confirmed on Friday that the December 15 deadline to impose new tariffs on around $156 billion worth Chinese products remains in place.  

At the same time, he also said that the U.S. President Donald Trump is satisfied with the recent progress in trade discussions. Yet he is not looking to go with the current phase one trade deal. 

Today, the trader’s focus will stay on the British GDP and further events from the Eurozone. Let’s brace for it. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair continues its bullish moves mainly due to the greenback’s bearish reversal across the board and weaker United States Treasury yields. As of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.1064 and consolidates in the narrow range between the 1.1053 – 1.1078.

Besides, the currency pair picked up the fresh buying during the last hour, in the wake of the revived trade war between the United States and China. The dismal of China trade data also depressed the market mood.

The lowered demand for higher-yielding assets such as the Treasury yields pushed the U.S. dollar broadly lower. The USD index corrects Friday’s positive U.S. payrolls led upsurge to 97.84, now trading at session lows of 97.63, -0.15% on the day.

Even after the recent bullish moves, the currency pair still in the red zone because the greenback may remain supported by the stronger United States employment data that diminished the 2020 rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve.

At the ECB front, the European Central Bank (ECB) President Largerde will deliver her first speech as a president regarding monetary policy during this Thursday. She will likely provide a hint about the ECB’s commitment to the recent stimulus package that included a rate cut and the restarting of the quantitative rate cut(Q.E.) program.

Meanwhile, the markets now await the Eurozone Sentix Investor Sentiment data, which is de during the European session today. Better-than-expected German Trade and Current Account data also collaborate with the positive tone around the shared currency.

Furthermore, the investor’s confidence in the Eurozone increased sharply in December, despite rising US-China trade tensions and the German slowdown, the latest data published by the Sentix research group showed on Monday.

The quote climbed to +0.7 in December from -4.5 in November and against a figure of -4.9 expected. The investors’ confidence hit the highest since March 2018.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.093
  • S2 1.1
  • S1 1.1031

Pivot Point 1.107

  • R1 1.1101
  • R2 1.1141
  • R3 1.1211

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has disappointed in its first test of the 5-month downtrend at 1.1113. The EUR/USD is trending lower but has not gained any support until now. The EUR/USD has next support near 61.8% Fibonacci support level of 1.1040.  

While the resistance stays around 1.1070, and the 1.1075 horizontal resistance mark strictly follows it. Considering the recent crossover on MACD, the pair may trade bearish below the 1.1070 level today. 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and representing declines to 1.3135 from the highest level since early April of 1.3180 after the release of a new poll ahead of the snap December elections in the United Kingdom. The Cable experienced a slight bearish reversal on Monday and mostly traded at 1.3155/60, up 20 pips for the day. 

The GBP/USD currency pair was seen on the bullish track on Monday, but it remains under 1.3200. The GBP continues to be supported by the polls showing a top position of the Conservatives Party. Just minutes ago, the fresh opinion poll by ICM revealed that the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johson’s Conservative Party remain unchanged at 42%. In contrast, support for the party rose by 1 point to 36%. The Tory slightly pushed lower the GBP in advance.

The reversal in the GBP/USD currency pair was limited as the volatility remain low, and the U.S. dollar continued to show slight bearish bias. 

Looking forward, the critical event in the U.S. will be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Analysts and traders are also focusing on trade progress as the December 15 deadline for hiking tariffs on Chinese goods remains in highlights. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3004
  • S2 1.3069
  • S1 1.3103

Pivot Point 1.3134

  • R1 1.3168
  • R2 1.32
  • R3 1.3265

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On the technical side, the cable pair holds a bullish tone, but it is showing some short-term bearish signals after being unable to stay on top of 1.3160. Nevertheless, the trend in the pair points clearly to the upside, and consolidation of the GBP/USD above 1.3180 would expose the pair towards 1.3200. 

The prices need to cross May month high near 1.3180 to target 1.3200 and 1.3270 figures to the north, declining to do so highlights Wednesday’s top surrounding 1.3120 as immediate support.

In the daily timeframe, the GBP/USD has an upward crossover on MACD. Lastly, the three white candles on the daily timeframe are suggesting bullish bias among traders. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the five-days low below the 108.50 ahead of important macroeconomic events. The pair struggle to stage a recovery on Monday and was last seen trading at 108.49, a few pips above the 5-day low that it set at 108.43 in the last hour.

The economic figures showed that the business sentiment grew slightly during November with the Eco Watchers Survey’s Outlook and the Current indexes both coming out better than their October figures.

Looking forward, the trader will keep their eyes on the fresh progress surrounding the United States and China trade talks. If both sides could make a deal and sign the phase-one of the trade deal ahead of the United States tariff hike on Chinese imports on December 15, a relief rally will likely cause the Japanese Yen to lose interest as a safe-haven and support the pair gain bullish moves.

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be publishing its monetary policy decisions on Wednesday. In contrast, the FOMC is not expected to make any changes to its policy rate. It will be interesting to see how the Fed estimates the positive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. 

Last week on Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 266,000 during November to cross the market expectation of 180,000 and provided a boost to the U.S. Dollar Index. Consequently, the USD/JPY pair got bullish support. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 futures are virtually unchanged on the day, hinting that Wall Street is likely to open flat to reiterate the neutral market sentiment.


Daily Support and Resistance   

  • S3 107.85
  • S2 108.26
  • S1 108.44

Pivot Point 108.68

  • R1 108.85
  • R2 109.1
  • R3 109.51

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the demand for haven assets and weaker U.S. dollar has driven sharp selling in the USD/JPY currency pair this week. For now, the pair is trading above 108.550, which is working as a double bottom support level.

A bearish breakout of this level can trigger selling until 108.250. The USD/JPY has already completed 81% retracement on three hourly charts, and this level can give some support to USD/JPY. Above this, the pair may find resistance around 108.900. Let’s wait for NFP to determine the further trend of USD/JPY. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 09 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Mixed Risk Sentiment In Play!

The U.S. dollar rebounded against other major currencies, as the ICE U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 97.68, halting a six-session losing streak. EUR/USD lost 0.4% to close at 1.1060. Germany’s industrial production declined 1.7% on month in October (+0.1% expected).

The U.S. Labor Department reported that the economy added 266,000 nonfarm payrolls in November (+180,000 expected, +156,000 in October). The jobless rate dropped to 3.5% from 3.6%, the lowest level since 1969. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan Sentiment Index (preliminary reading) rose to 99.2 in December (97.0 expected) from 96.8 in November.

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

Economic Events to Watch Today


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair is flashing red and representing marginal declines on the day, mainly due to the tension of the intensified trade war between the United States and China. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1055 and consolidates in the narrow range between 1.1053 – 1.1061.

As we know, the pair had closed above 1.1097 during the Thursday, canceling the lower highs setup on the daily chart and confirming the bullish reversal. The breakout was short-lived because the currency pair fell from 1.1110 to 1.1040 during the U.S. trading session in the wake of the Nonfarm Payrolls figure.

At the fed front, the traders priced out chances of 25-basis-points rate cut by the Federal Reserve rate cut in 2020 after the release of the upbeat United States employment report. While on the U.S. dollar front, the greenback may remain in buying mainly due to upbeat payrolls data and trade tensions.

The data released during the weekend showed China’s exports to the U.S. dropped by 23% in November, the most significant monthly decline since February. 

The depressing figures may convince the United States President Donald Trump that his trade war is creating desired results, and he will likely move forward with a tariff spike on $160 billion of Chinese goods.

At the Sino-US front, the tensions regarding the United States and China intensified trade war will likely keep the shared currency under pressure. Ultimately, the trade fears have pushed Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.093
  • S2 1.1
  • S1 1.1031

Pivot Point 1.107

  • R1 1.1101
  • R2 1.1141
  • R3 1.1211

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has disappointed in its first test of the 5-month downtrend at 1.1113. The EUR/USD is trending lower but has not gained any support until now. The EUR/USD has next support near 61.8% Fibonacci support level of 1.1040.  

While the resistance stays around 1.1070, and it’s strictly followed by the 1.1075 horizontal resistance mark. Considering the recent crossover on MACD, the pair may trade bearish below the 1.1070 level today. 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

 The GBP/USD currency pair is flashing green and representing 0.10% gains on the day in the wake of weekend polls. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3146 and consolidates in the range of 1.3133 – 1.3151. 

The market traders seem very careful to continue the recent bullish streak beyond the 7-month high ahead of the snap December election in the United Kingdom.

Moreover, the weekend survey indicates that the ruling Conservative Party continues to maintain top position across all major surveys. However, the opposition Labour Party seems to cut the lead as far as data from ComRes and Deltapoll are concerned. 

The fresh news from the U.K. politics shows that the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson agrees that there will be insignificant checks between the U.K. and Northern Ireland. The United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johson has been criticized many times for not coming in the General debates. Still, the recent one on Channel 4 looks to be suitable for the Tories. 

At the Sino-US front, the United States (U.S.) did not reduce the scope of fresh tariffs on Chinese goods that are up for December 15. The same thing keeps market players under pressure because phase-one talks are yet to provide any strong development.

The traders will keep their eyes on Thursday’s election, as well as monthly figures of Manufacturing Production, Industrial Production, and Gross Domestic Product will likely offer fresh direction to the cable pair.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3004
  • S2 1.3069
  • S1 1.3103

Pivot Point 1.3134

  • R1 1.3168
  • R2 1.32
  • R3 1.3265

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On the technical side, the prices need to cross May month high near 1.3180 to target 1.3200 and 1.3270 figures to the north, declining to do so highlights Wednesday’s top surrounding 1.3120 as immediate support.

In the daily timeframe, the GBP/USD has an upward crossover on MACD. Lastly, the three white candles on the daily timeframe are suggesting bullish bias among traders. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and found near the 108.58, in short, the pair stays moderately changed to Friday range despite the upbeat growth data from Japan. As of writing, the USD/JPY Currency Pair currently trading at 108.58 and consolidates in the narrow range between the 108.55 – 108.67.

The final figures of Japan’s 3rd-quarter (Q3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased past-0.2% forecast and 0.1% preliminary expectations to +0.4% on QoQ basis. Though the annually figures matched no change expectations of 0.6%. Moreover, Japan’s Trade Balance on Balance of Payment (BOP) Basis for October crossed ¥1.1 B before a whooping ¥254 B.

Markets risk sentiment didn’t succeed in extending the previous gains because the traders look careful ahead of the critical week that includes the crucial central bank meeting and the general election in the United Kingdom. Moreover, recent polls of the British December snap election seem to keep the ruling Conservative Party at the top and decrease fears of the united kingdom political trauma.

At the Sino-US front, the United States tariffs of China are ready to happen on December 15, and the Trump administration wants a phase-one to turn the tariff’s switch off. However, China seems not in a mood to respect the U.S. and trade deal, even after supporting agricultural demand. Looking forward, traders may look for trade/political headlines for fresh impulse.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 107.85
  • S2 108.26
  • S1 108.44

Pivot Point 108.68

  • R1 108.85
  • R2 109.1
  • R3 109.51

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The boosted demand for haven assets and weaker U.S. dollar has driven sharp selling in the USD/JPY currency pair this week. For now, the pair is trading above 108.550, which is working as a double bottom support level.

A bearish breakout of this level can trigger selling until 108.250. The USD/JPY has already completed 81% retracement on three hourly charts, and this level can give some support to USD/JPY. Above this, the pair may find resistance around 108.900. Let’s wait for NFP to determine the further trend of USD/JPY. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 06 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for Nonfarm Payroll! 

The British pound extended its gains on expectations that Brexit uncertainty could be cleared when the ruling Conservative Party wins a majority in the December 12 general election. GBP/USD charged 0.4% higher to 1.3157, a fresh 7-month high. EUR/GBP declined 0.2% to 0.8438, which was last seen in May 2017.

The U.K. Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders reported that new car registrations declined 1.3% on year in Nov. (-6.7% in Oct.).

The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1104. The eurozone’s third-quarter GDP growth (final reading) posted at 0.2% on quarter (as expected) and 1.2% on year (as expected). Also, the eurozone’s retail sales declined 0.6% on month in Oct. (-0.5% expected) but rose 1.4% on year (+2.2% expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

  

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing green and found above the November 21 high of 1.1107 despite the depressed German Factory Orders data. As of writing, the currency pair consolidates in the range of 1.1102 – 1.1110. The 14-day relative strength index is also representing bullish sentiment with an above-50 print.

The EUR/USD currency pair will be unlikely to take the significant declines even if the industrial production figures release below expectations. On the other hand, the positive data from the United States (NFP) may stop supporting the bullish technical setup. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a primary indicator of strength in the manufacturing industry.

Looking forward, the Eurozone’s manufacturing hub Germany release Industrial Production figures for October at 07:00 GMT. The data was expected to show the factory activity increased at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.1% month-on-month in October, but the actual data fell to -1.7%. Evidently, the EUR/USD is trading under pressure since it’s release. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.104
  • S2 1.1068
  • S1 1.1086

Pivot Point 1.1097

  • R1 1.1115
  • R2 1.1126
  • R3 1.1155

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Friday, the traders are waiting for the U.S. Non-farm Payroll and Employment change figures to drive the next movement in the market. 

The EUR/USD has next support is near mid-1.1050 and is strictly followed by the 1.1075 horizontal support mark. Considering the recent crossover on MACD, the pair may trade bullish above the 1.1070 level today. On the upper side, resistance stays around 1.1140 and 1.1170. 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the seven-month high and found near the 1.3160 ahead of the United States nonfarm payroll. As of writing, the currency pair consolidates in the range of 1.3153-1.3163. 

The recent polls of the United Kingdom December election maintain the ruling Conservative Party on the top place, Prime Minister Boris Johson seems to be stuck recently as the Tory leaders again reject to take part in ITV and BBC debates.

On the other hand, optimism surrounding the trade deal by the UK Chancellor Sajid Javid and ex-Brexit Party members’ who seem to push to vote Tories seem to play their roles. Moreover, the pairs’ bullish sentiment could also be attributed to the greenback weakness. 

Markets seem inactive and cautious because all eyes stay on the Novembers’ employment data from the United States. As a result, the United States’ ten-year treasury yields, and most of the Asian stocks stay modestly changed. 

Ahead of the U.S. jobs report, U.K. Halifax House Prices will likely entertain the traders. Notably, we expect payrolls to increase by a solid 200k in November, which is higher than the previous month’s 128k release. If this happens, the GBP/USD may face headwind to target the next resistance level of 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.3021
  • S2 1.3082
  • S1 1.312

Pivot Point 1.3143

  • R1 1.3181
  • R2 1.3204
  • R3 1.3265

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On the technical side, the prices need to cross May month high near 1.3180 to target 1.3200 and 1.3270 figures to the north, declining to do so highlights Wednesday’s top surrounding 1.3120 as immediate support.

In the daily timeframe, the GBP/USD has an upward crossover on MACD. Lastly, the three white candles on the daily timeframe are suggesting bullish bias among traders. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and dropped from the 108.97 to 108.66 overnight, mainly due to the positive headlines which came from the United States and China trade. This helped the United States stocks to survive further gains. 

As of writing, the currency pair is trading near the 108.70 and consolidates in the range of 108.66-108.78. Recently the risk appetite was healthy, and investors were trading based upon the set of positive news during this week from the United States. Although, without any positive response from China, markets were afraid to take any action ahead.

Before the headlines, there were upbeat tones from the United States President Donald Trump, who said that the United States is having meetings and trade talks with China. Something may happen regarding the December 15 tariff, but we are not discussing currently.

As for U.S. yields, the two-year Treasury yields increased slightly from 1.56% to 1.60%, ten-year yields rose from 1.76 to 1.82%. “Markets are pricing a near to zero chance of rate cut at the Fed’s December 11 meeting but a terminal rate of 1.25%.

Looking forward, the trader will keep their eyes on the coming Nonfarm Payrolls. Nov Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise 185k and report that the unemployment rate is likely to stay at 3.6%. Average hourly earnings are expected to hold at 3.0%, still down from the 3.2% beforehand.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.12
  • S2 108.46
  • S1 108.61

Pivot Point 108.81

  • R1 108.95
  • R2 109.15
  • R3 109.49

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The boosted demand for haven assets and weaker U.S. dollar has driven sharp selling in the USD/JPY currency pair this week. For now, the pair is trading above 108.550, which is working as a double bottom support level.

A bearish breakout of this level can trigger selling until 108.250. The USD/JPY has already completed 81% retracement on three hourly charts, and this level can give some support to USD/JPY. Above this, the pair may find resistance around 108.900. Let’s wait for NFP to determine the further trend of USD/JPY. 

All the best!

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 5 – France and Virgin Islands developing digital currencies, cryptos in the green

We can see a mix of green and red in the crypto market in the past 24 hours. Bulls rallied and attempted a price surge with Bitcoin, which most cryptocurrencies followed. However, bears prevailed, and cryptos stayed in the same place they were a day ago. If we take a look at the past 24 hours, Bitcoin went up 1.83% and is now trading at the price of $7,334. Ethereum managed to gain 0.03% of its value on the day. XRP gained 1.06%.

Of the top100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, the biggest gainer is Enjin Coin, which managed to gain 30.79% on the day. The biggest loser of the day was MINDOL, which lost 33.29% of its value.

Bitcoin’s dominance has increased slightly, as its price increase was that occurred in the market was bigger for Bitcoin. On top of that, Bitcoin kept more of the move than the other cryptos did. Its dominance is currently 66.74%, which represents an increase of 0.31% from yesterday’s value.

The cryptocurrency market managed to increase in total market capitalization due to the overall slight price increase. Its market cap is sitting at $197.92 billion at the moment of writing. This value represents an increase of around $2.9 billion when compared to the value it had yesterday.

What happened in the past 24 hours

More and more countries are getting officially interested in cryptocurrency and the concept of digitalization. Even though most of them are talking about digital currencies rather than cryptocurrencies (and the distinction should be made), this is a good sign of crypto acceptance.

A blockchain startup called LIFELabs, along with the British Virgin Islands, is developing a cryptocurrency that will act as a digital currency that will be sovereignly used on the island territory. This digital currency will be a stablecoin that is pegged to the value of the US dollar on a 1:1 ratio.

On top of that, The central bank of France will pilot a central bank digital currency for its financial institutions. This digital Euro pilot would happen in 2020. This news was announced by the governor of the Bank of France.

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin had bulls rallying and attempting to break its immediate resistance whole day. At one point, its price moved past the $7,415 resistance and reached $7,780. However, that move did not last long as the bull pressure wasn’t as strong. Bitcoin’s price remains under the key resistance level for the time being. There were a couple of other attempts of breaking the line, but they were far weaker and far less significant.


Bitcoin’s volume increased significantly during the big spike, which brought Bitcoin to $7,780. However, even though we can say that the volume is elevated when compared with yesterday’s volume, it is still on the decline when we look at it in the past 24 hours.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $7,415                                           1: $7,240

2: $8,000                                           2: $7,120

3: $8,425                                           3: $6,620


Ethereum

Ethereum suffers the same fate as Bitcoin does. It managed to fall below its $147 zone, but this bull rally wanted to put the price above it. The price shot to $155 at one point, but could not hold up. This move ended quickly, and Ethereum moved back below the key resistance. Its price is now at the very $147 line, and bulls seem to be quite strong, so we might see another solid attempt of moving upward.


Ethereum’s price is currently in limbo, and its short-term support lines are unknown, but this information might not be as important as the bulls are currently in play.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $167.8                                             1: $144.5

2: $178.6                                            2: $127

3: $185


Ripple

XRP spent the day rallying its bulls, which resulted in a major attempt to the upside. XRP’s price reached $0.227 but, as with most cryptocurrencies today, fell as the bull pressure wasn’t as strong as it needed to be. Some of the value was preserved, and XRP is currently trading in a range between the 50% and 61.8% Fib retracement green line.


XRP’s volume is elevated when compared to the previous days. Its RSI is slowly gaining momentum to the upside.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $0.2185                                          1: $0.214

2: $0.222                                            2: 0.209

3: $0.2267                                          3: $0.202

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 05 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Get Ready for European GDP! 

On the forex front, the British pound bounced 0.9% to $1.3103, the highest close since May. Polls suggested a majority-win by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party in the general election to be held next week, which could clear political uncertainty over Brexit. Meanwhile, the Markit UK Services PMI for November (final reading) was released at 49.3 (48.6 expected).

The euro closed a few pips lower at $1.1077. The Markit Eurozone Services PMI for November (final reading) posted 51.9 (51.5 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

  


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair hit the multi-week highs just above the 1.1100 level, mainly due to the poor ADP data result. As of writing, the currency pair currently trading near the 1.1090 and consolidates in the range between 1.1067 – 1.1115.

The ADP showed the US US private sector added ‘just’ 67K jobs during last month, coming in well below estimates whereas the November’s print was also changed a tad lower to 121K (from 125K).

Looking forward, all eyes will be on I.S.M. Manufacturing for November, which is due to come out later in the NA session.

Eventually, the pair has stuck above the critical barrier at 1.1100 due to the continuous weak sentiment in the greenback and the intensified Sino-US trade war. 

IHS Markit reported that today’s data signals 0.1% GDP growth in the last quarter of the year, with manufacturing creating a notable resistance. While today’s figures steadied a bit from the previous reading, the numbers are at the lower end of what’s been reported over the last five years.

On the technical side, the EUR/USD pair is increasing 0.19% at 1.1102 and faces the next hurdle at 1.1161 (200-day SMA), followed by 1.1179 (monthly high Oct.21) and finally 1.1186 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally). On the other hand, a breakdown of 1.1040 (55-day SMA) would target 1.0989 (low monthly Nov.14) en route to 1.0925 (low Sep.3).

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • S3 1.0883
  • S2 1.097
  • S1 1.1025

Pivot Point 1.1057

  • R1 1.1112
  • R2 1.1145
  • R3 1.1232

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The European traders are waiting for the GDP and Retail Sales data, which is due in a couple of hours. With an improved level of uncertainty, the greenback is getting weaker, which is why the EUR/USD is trading steadily in a narrow range

The EUR/USD has immediate support is near mid-1.1050 and is closely followed by the 1.1075 horizontal support mark. Considering the recent crossover on MACD, the pau may trade bullish above the 1.1070 level today. 

.


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair remains to flash green and hit the seven-months highs near the 1.3100 in the last trading hour. That happens after the incoming polls have hit a majority for the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnsons ruling Conservatives Party at the upcoming snap election, which is listed to occur on December 12.

It should be noted that the bullish sentiment in the pair did not take any effect by the weakness in the greenback, supported by a sharp intraday upward movement in the US Treasury bond yields and some positive trade-related headlines. Moreover, the report came that the United States and China are moving closer to a deal before the December 15 tariff due data.

The GBP/USD currency pair will likely be trying to improve the 1.3100 round-figure marks, although slightly overbought sentiments on intraday charts warrant some attention before initiating any new bullish positions. Market traders now look forward to the US economic docket, highlighting the release of ADP report and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, for some short-term impetus.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • S3 1.2823
  • S2 1.2876
  • S1 1.2908

Pivot Point 1.2929

  • R1 1.2961
  • R2 1.2982
  • R3 1.3035

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD’s bullish trend continues to dominate the market, and the pair is consistently heading north to test the initial resistance level of 1.3195. A bullish breakout of this mark can drive buying until 1.3335, the double top resistance level. 

In the daily timeframe, the GBP/USD has an upward crossover on MACD. Lastly, the three white candles on the daily timeframe are suggesting bullish bias among traders. 


AUD/USD– Daily Analysis

The AUD/USD pair flashing red and currently trading near the bearish range of 0.6853, mainly due to the intensified trade tension between the United States and China.

As of writing, the currency pair failed to continue its recent bullish streak and unfortunately came under pressure, as we know the pair registering 2-consecutive days of bullish streak in the wake of softer Austrian macro data.

Apart from this, Australia’s GDP growth slowed to 0.4% during the 3-months to September as compared to the previous quarter’s upwardly revised figures of 0.6% and worse than 0.5% expected.

At the Sino-US front, the overall sentiment on the AUD/USD currency pair affected mainly by the United States and China trade deal uncertainty. It should be recalled that the United States President Donald Trump said that the trade deal with China would likely not happen in 2020. As well as, the US US Congress on Tuesday overwhelmingly approved a bill condemning China’s mass detention of ethnic Muslims and called for sanctions against some officials responsible.

The AUD/USD currency pair left its recent bullish moves, and bearish sentiment remained strong so far, despite the weak greenback. Because investors continue to digest the latest trade developments, the greenback buyers remained on the defensive track, avoid a modest uptick in the US US Treasury bond yields.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • S3 0.6699
  • S2 0.6752
  • S1 0.6785

Pivot Point 0.6806

  • R1 0.6839
  • R2 0.6859
  • R3 0.6913

AUD/USD– Trading Tips

The AUD/USD is trading slightly bearish to achieve 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6820. Over this, the Aussie has produced a series of bearish candles that are suggesting chances of a sell-off in Aussie. 

The AUD/USD may trade with a bullish bias above 0.6820 to aim 0.6850 and 0.6868 while the next support prevails around 0.6800. 

All the best!

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Dec 4 – Binance adds support for Tezos Staking, $1.5 million in crypto siezed in a WA drug bust

Most cryptocurrencies continue trading sideways or in the slight red, including Bitcoin which has not been able to find the strength to push for higher prices in the past few days. The majority of the moves were insignificant but bears prevailed in the past few hours, reducing the overall market cap of the crypto industry. If we take a look at the past 24 hours, Bitcoin went down 1.58% and is now trading at the price of $7,164. Ethereum managed to lose 2.4% of its value on the day. XRP lost 3.23%.

Of the top100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, the biggest gainer is Dx Chain Token, which managed to gain 19.24% on the day. The biggest loser of the day was MINDOL, which lost 25.19% of its value.

Bitcoin’s dominance has increased slightly, as its drop in price was smaller than the drop of the industry itself. Its dominance is currently 66.43%, which represents an increase of 0.44% from yesterday’s value.

The cryptocurrency market managed to lose value in terms of market capitalization. Its market cap is currently sitting at $195.1 billion. This value represents a decrease of around $3.5 billion when compared to the value it had yesterday.

What happened in the past 24 hours

Binance has announced that they will support Tezos (XTZ) staking starting Dec 4. Binance’s users will be able to trade with Tezos and receive XTZ rewards which will be calculated daily based on live snapshots. The rewards will be then distributed monthly.

The users must hold at least 1 XTZ in order to qualify for staking rewards. Tezos’s current price is $1.30.

On a less bright side, more than 1.5 million AUD in cryptocurrency has been seized during a drug bust in Western Australia. Western Australian police has charged two people with the attempted import of MDMA. As part of the search, the polica also found $1,524,102 of cryptocurrency on an electronic device.

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin did not move much relative to the market as a whole in the past 24 hours, though he did lose some of its value. It did end up being in the red when it comes to daily price movement, as it traded sideways and then suddenly dropped around $150. It is still trading below the $7,415 line, but as it cannot pass it, Bitcoin decided to step away from it and consolidate at a lower price.


Bitcoin’s volume is currently lower than when compared to its values from yesterday. The RSI value seems to be slowly falling towards oversold levels again.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside                            1: $7,415                                           1: $6,620

2: $8,000

3: $8,425


Ethereum

Ethereum had a pretty bad day. It fell under the support zone’s lower line of 147 and is now trading right below it. As its price is no longer contained within the support zone, Ethereum has no immediate support and its next big support level is all the way down to $127.


Ethereum’s price is currently in limbo and its short-term direction is unknown, and so are its immediate key support levels.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $167.8                                            1: $127

2: $178.6

3: $185


Ripple

XRP spent the day losing quite a bit of its value. It could not hold its gains from the last bull move and started bleeding out during the past 24 hours. Its price breezed through the 50% Fib retracement line and continued downwards, stopping at around $0.211 and then changing direction and stabilizing around the 61.8% Fib retracement. While the support and resistance lines marked green on the chart are not as strong as to be considered key levels, we can see that Ripple’s price did respond quite well to almost every level of the green Fib retracement.


Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $0.235                                            1: $0.202

2: $0.245

3: $0.266

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 03 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Dollar Weakens Over ISM Manufacturing PMI 

The global financial markets are trading the weaker dollar sentiment in the wake of worse than expected ISM manufacturing PMI data. On the news, the Euro gained 0.5% to $1.1079, the largest percentage gain since September 17. The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (final reading) for November was released at 46.9 (46.6 expected). Similar PMIs for Germany and France were posted at 44.1 (43.8 expected) and at 51.7 (51.6 expected), respectively. While the Markit U.S. 

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) posted a final reading of 52.6 (52.2 expected and in preliminary reading), the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.1 (49.2 expected) from 48.3 in October. Construction spending declined 0.8% on month in October (+0.4% expected, -0.3% in September).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.


 


 EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair climbed 0.58% very sharply during the Monday, representing its most significant single-day upward movement since September 17. As of now, the currency pair is currently trading near the 1.1076. Notably, the outlook will likely shift to the bullish track if the currency pair crosses the November 21 figures high of 1.1097. That would confirm a double bottom breakout on the daily chart and create an opportunity for 1.12.

The breakout could be possible if we look at the dismal of the United States data, which was released on Monday. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index dropped to 48.1% in November from October’s 48.3%, confirming the 4th-straight month of contraction.

At the greenback front, as we know that the U.S. Dollar already shows losses in the wake of the weak data, and the focus will likely shift to the on-going trade tensions; in that case, the breakout will likely remain elusive.

The United States President Donald Trump administration said late Monday it is planning to impose tariffs up to 100% on around $2.4 billion of French goods in return to take revenge on France’s decision to impose a tax on digital services.

Looking forward, the Eurozone producer price index is scheduled to release at 10:00 GMT, and the US ISM-NY Business Conditions Index (Nov) will hit the wires at 14:45 GMT. These data sets rarely have a big impact on the currency markets. Although, the EUR may take hints from a speech by European Central Bank’s (ECB) member Benoir Coeure scheduled at 17:30 GMT.

On the bearish side, the November 29 low of 1.0981 is the level to beat for sellers. At press time, the pair is trading at 1.1075, representing little change on the day.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0883

S2 1.097

S1 1.1025

Pivot Point 1.1057

R1 1.1112

R2 1.1145

R3 1.1232

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD pair concluded the day over 1.1065, the 38.2% retracement level on 4-hour chart. Weaker ISM manufacturing data from the U.S. economy is driving bearish bias for the EUR/USD pair ahead of NFP data, which is due on Friday. 

The EUR/USD has reached the triple top resistance area of 1.1085, which is keeping the Euro on hold below this area. Although the closing of candles below this level is suggesting chances of a bearish bias, the RSI and MACD value is still in the bullish zone. These may drive more buying in the EUR/USD currency pair. In the case of a bullish breakout of 1.1085, the EUR/USD may lead towards a 1.1120 trading level. 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and shifted from the recovery track to bearish track mainly due to greenback recovery. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.2940. Moreover. The reason behind the cable pairs pullback could also the recent changes in the United Kingdom politics and careful trading ahead of the United States President Trumps London visit for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit.

Tory leader has recently been fired by the opposition or the media, which in turn might have reduced the scope of the Conservatives holding the British rule after the December election.

At the greenback front, the U.S. Dollar was found on the strong bearish track on Monday because the United States President Donald Trump announced a measure that shows the world’s largest economy’s preference for trade protection. Apart from this, the United States and China trade war regarding Hong Kong also leaving pressure on the greenback. Freshly, China announced sanctions over the US Non-Government Organization (NGO).

Looking forward, the United States President Donald Trump will visit London tomorrow for the NATV summit. By the way, traders are not expecting something from this meeting, but the United Kingdoms opposition parties will keep their eyes on the meeting between the United States and United Kingdom leaders to increase their earlier claims that the United Kingdom Prime Minister has plans to sell National Healthcare System to the United States.

On the economic calendar, the final figures of November month U.K. Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will be watched for fresh directions.

Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1.2823

S2 1.2876

S1 1.2908

Pivot Point 1.2929

R1 1.2961

R2 1.2982

R3 1.3035

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The British pound was up for a second session as it edged up 0.1% to $1.2939. The Markit U.K. Manufacturing PMI (final reading) for November came in at 48.9 (48.3 expected). On Tuesday, the GBP/USD is trading with a strong bullish trend as it already has violated the symmetric triangle pattern at $1.2935. 

The symmetric triangle pattern typically breakout on either direction, but the weaker dollar causes a bullish trend in the GBP/USD. For now, the GBP/USD pair may find next resistance around 1.3015 along with immediate support around 1.2970 and 1.2930.  

On the 4-hour timeframe, the RSI and MACD are holding are still signaling bullish bias. Thus, let’s consider taking buying trades above 1.2950 to target 1.3010 today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The currency figures marked the highest losses on Monday, mainly due to headlines from the United States flashed challenges to the global trade system. As well as, another reason behind the pairs bearish trend was downbeat data from the United States.

The United States and China phase-1 deal or steel tariff on South American economies, not to forget possible trade negative measures against the European Union, the United States ran the trade show during the Monday.

Moreover, the US ISM manufacturing numbers stayed in the contraction region for the 4th-consecutive month and increased uncertainties on the strength of the world’s largest economy.

At the data front, the market’s risk aversion hit Wall Street on the 1st-trading day of the month while the United States’ ten-year Treasury yields increased by 4-basis points to 1.82%. However, the latest figures seem to change with the S&P 500 Futures be quietly on the positive side with the U.S. government bonds on the waiting mood for fresh directions.

The United States President Donal Trump continues his hate factor for the Federal Reserve monetary policy, as Trump said that the Federal Reserve should lower rate and loosen, making us competitive with other countries, and manufacturing will SOAR. The greenback is very strong as compared to others. Whereas the Federal Reserve policymakers are on the blackout session, negative data from the United States keep decreasing the chances of any monetary policy stabilization due to conflicting comments from the United States President Donald Trump.

Additionally, a repeat of the November news that the Japan government is considering 25 Trillion Japanese yen (JPY) economic stimulus package, as per the NHK, recently crossed the wires while supporting the pair.

Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 107.65

S2 108.42

S1 108.7

Pivot Point 109.2

R1 109.48

R2 109.98

R3 110.76

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing green and hit the bullish level of 109.19 from the 5-day low despite the broad risk-off sentiment. As of writing, the pair is consolidating in the range between the 108.95 – 109.20.

On the technical front, the USD/JPY has shown a dramatic dip until 108.950, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. As we can see in the chart above, the pair has violated the bullish channel, which was supporting the safe-haven pair around 109.350. 

At the moment, the USD/JPY is trading with a strong bearish bias, and we may see a bullish reversal in USD/JPY somewhere around 108.800 level today. Below this, the pair can go after 108.500 level.

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, December 02 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – ISM Manufacturing PMI In Focus! 

The U.S. Dollar Index rose edged down to 98.27 from 98.33 during the previous week. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1015. Official data showed that November consumer prices in the eurozone increased 1.0% on year in November (+0.9% expected), and October jobless rate was at 7.5% (as expected, 7.6% in September). 

The U.S. stocks closed lower while ending November with the most significant monthly gain since June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 112 points (-0.4%) to 28051, the S&P 500 lost 12 points (-0.4%) to 3140, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 39 points (-0.5%) to 8665.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair hit the bearish track and continue to flashing red despite the positive China manufacturing data. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair currently trading near the 1.1018, representing slight declines on the day and consolidates in the range of 1.1015-1.1028.

The Caixin PMI, which surveys the small and medium-sized export-oriented units, increased to 51.8 in November from October’s 51.7 to record the fastest expansion in 3-3-years. While the official PMI released on Saturday also printed well above 50 to mark the first expansion in 13 months.

As in result, the risky assets getting bids due to data. For example, Japan’s Nikkei surged by1% in Asia, and the NZD/USD pair rose to a one-month high. Even so, the EUR currency is struggling.

Looking ahead, the EUR/USD currency pair may take bids if the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s pushes European leaders to boost spending, indirectly hinting low chances of more monetary stimulus in the foreseeable future. Notably, the Lagarde’s testimony is scheduled to happen at 14:00 GMT.

The market’s focus will shift to the U.S. data on the North American session. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov), due at 15:00 GMT, is forecasted to print at 49.4 against 48.3 in October. An above-50 print may put pressure on EUR/USD.

The final German and Eurozone PMI numbers scheduled to release in Europe may not have a big impact, unless they carry a significant upward or downward revisions to the preliminary figures released on November 22.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0915
  • S2 1.0962
  • S1 1.099

Pivot Point 1.1009

  • R1 1.1037
  • R2 1.1056
  • R3 1.1103

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

Traders are strengthening the downside bias amid positive NFP forecast, which is due to release later this week. The EUR/USD disrupted the tight trading range of 1.1016 – 1.0992 to trade near the 1.1020 trading level. 

At the moment, the EUR/USD’s now consolidating in a narrow trading range of 1.1030 – 1.1015. A bullish breakout of 1.1030 can lead the EUR/USD prices towards 1.1055, and on the lower side, 1.0985 endures the final support.


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and representing 0.10% losses. As of writing, the cable pair is currently trading at 1.2915 and consolidates in the narrow range between 1.29107 and 1.2918 at the start of the week, mainly due to series of United Kingdom election polls which doing limited to affect a leading Tory sentiment.

The GBP currency was seen stronger in the recent times in the wake of Brexit Party promising not to stand against the Tories in voters where there is a sitting Tory MP, underpinning the probability of a Tory majority after the quick threat of no-deal Brexit.

The investors are now keeping their eyes on the election outcomes. Still, the market will likely hold the risks of talks between the United Kingdom and the European Union, which may cover any quick bullish move in the GBP on a Tory victory.

At the Sino-US front, doubts over the phase-one deal between the United States (U.S.) and China are weighing on the greenback, whereas recently, actual activity data from China adds strength to the risk sentiment.

Looking forward, the market will keep their eyes on the U.S. main event in the U.S. nonfarm payroll jobs report. We expect employees to increase by 200k in November, after the above-consensus 128k October print.

All traders will keep their eyes on the trade and political headlines November month Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from the U.S., and the U.K. will likely offer intermediate moves. Including, U.K. Manufacturing PMI, anticipated 48.3, will be the first to observe ahead of the U.S. Markit and ISM activity indices. 

Estimates suggest the Markit PMI remain unchanged at 52.2, but ISM Manufacturing PMI may rise to 49.9 from 45.5.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2784
  • S2 1.285
  • S1 1.2889

Pivot Point 1.2917

  • R1 1.2955
  • R2 1.2984
  • R3 1.3051

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The cable pair is currently trading at 1.2915 and consolidates in the narrow range between 1.29107 and 1.2918 at the origin of the week, mainly due to series of United Kingdom election polls which doing limited to affect a leading Tory sentiment.

On Friday, the GBP/USD continues to above the suggested support level of 1.2880. The pair has formed neutral candles above this level as traders are waiting for a fundamental reason to get in the market. 

On the 2-hour timeframe, the RSI and MACD are holding near 50 and 0, suggesting neutral bias among investors. Therefore, we may see a slightly bearish trend in the GBP/USD below 1.29400 area until a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2900. Consider staying bullish above 1.2900 today to target 1.2945/65. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the 6-months high 109.70; this is the highest level since May 30, by the way, the safe-haven currency Japanese Yen came under pressure after the upbeat China manufacturing data and uptick in the United States equity index futures.

As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.70, the highest level since May 30, and the S&P 500 futures are reporting a 0.30% rise.

As we all well aware that President Donald Trump signed the Hong Kong Democracy Bill. China criticized the move because interference into its internal matters regarding Hong Kong, China warned to take revenge.

However, China did not take any revenge so far, and that may support the risk assets. Moreover, the data released over the weekend showed China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly increased in November. The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for China’s manufacturing sector inched up to 50.2 in November from 49.3 in October. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

At the greenback front, the U.S. dollar stayed little changed on Monday in Asia after the release of reliable economic data in the U.S. the previous week. The U.S. Dollar Index traded marginally higher early in the day, up 0.03% to 98.20 by 8:41 PM ET (01:40 GMT).

Looking forward, the initial indications of a turnaround in the world’s 2nd-largest economy support further upside in the risk assets and the USD/JPY pair. The Caixin China manufacturing PMI, which focuses on the small and medium-sized export-oriented units, printed above the estimate of 51.5 soon before press time.

Meanwhile, the bullish movement will likely weaken if the focus shifts to the negative news regarding the United States and China trade talks because the report came earlier today that the optimism between the United States and China decreased about the phase-one deal.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.98
  • S2 109.25
  • S1 109.38

Pivot Point 109.53

  • R1 109.65
  • R2 109.8
  • R3 110.07

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is consolidating at 109.425, and it has just begun to trade in the overbought zone as the RSI and MACD are stuck in the overbought territory. On the 4 hour graph, the USD/JPY has created a Doji and Spinning top, which typically implies chances neutral bias in the USD/JPY. On the downside, the USD/JPY may drop towards 38.2% Fibonacci retracement until 109.150. Besides Fibonacci, the bullish channel is also supporting the USD/JPY at the same level. So look for taking a sell trade below 109.700 today to target 109.200 and buying above 109.300 to target 109.700. 

All the best!

Categories
Crypto Market Analysis

Daily Crypto Review, Nov 29 –

The cryptocurrency market spent the past 24 hours in consolidation. Most cryptocurrencies did end up slightly in the red, but there were no significant moves that could be noticed. If we take a look at today’s prices, Bitcoin went down 0.46%, and it is now trading at $7,488. Ethereum lost 0.83%, while XRP went up 0.02%.

 

Of the top100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, the biggest gainer is Algorand, with a gain of 22.92% on the day. The biggest losers of the day were Silverway and Bytecoin, which lost 9.95% and 8.99% of their value, respectively.

Bitcoin’s dominance has pretty much stayed on yesterday’s level as the whole market consolidated. Its dominance is currently 66.32%, which represents a decrease of 0.2% when compared to the value it had 24 hours ago.

The cryptocurrency market as a whole now has a market capitalization of $204.14 billion, which is pretty much in the same place when compared to the value it had yesterday.

What happened in the past 24 hours

The federal parliament of Germany made a bill draft that would allow banks to deal with cryptocurrency. The banks would be able to become custodians and merchants of crypto in 2020 if this bill passes.

This move could represent a grand milestone when it comes to cryptocurrency adoption. When we look at it from a theoretical perspective, this would make cryptocurrency as liquid as cash in Germany.

_______________________________________________________________________

Technical analysis

_______________________________________________________________________

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has entered another consolidation phase after the move up it had the day before. After the bulls pushed Bitcoin above $7,415, it pretty much stayed at the price level.


Bitcoin’s volume dropped when compared to yesterday’s values, while RSI stayed on the same level.

Key levels to the upside                   Key levels to the downside

1:  $8,000                                          1: $7,415

2: $8,425                                           2: $6,620

3: $8,640                                


Ethereum

Ethereum’s struggle to declare its price to be above or below the support top-line continues.  Ethereum held almost all of its gains from the price increase but did not manage to form any stable immediate support level as Bitcoin did. That being said, Ethereum has many key levels, so there will be no problems for it to form a support level when the time comes.


Ethereum’s RSI is now approaching overbought territory, while its volume has decreased heavily after the move has ended. Today’s volume is almost at the same levels it was yesterday.

Key levels to the upside                    Key levels to the downside

1: $167.8                                            1: $127

2: $178.6

3: $185


XRP

XRP spent the past 24 hours slowly approaching its immediate resistance line in attempts to pass it and form a support line there. As there are no clear, immediate support levels below $0.235, XRP seems to be reaching above this key level so it could form support around it.


XRP’s RSI is slowly increasing while its volume is declining slightly.

Key levels to the upside                   Key levels to the downside

1: $0.235                                           1:  $0.202

2: $0.245

3: $0.266

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 29 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Brace for European Inflation Report! 

The U.S. dollar steadied against most major currencies on Thanksgiving day, with the ICE Dollar Index closing relatively unchanged on the day at 98.32. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1012. Official data showed that the eurozone’s Economic Confidence Index rose to 101.3 in November (101.0 expected) from 100.8 in October. Later today, November CPI (+0.9% on-year expected) and October jobless rate (steady at 7.5% expected) will be reported.

The German Federal Statistical Office will release November jobless rate (steady at 5.0% expected) and October retail sales (+0.2% on month expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair found on the bearish track and representing 1.27 decline on the monthly opening rate of 1.1151. As of writing, the currency pair is trading near 1.10.

The EUR/USD currency pair is moving bearish at the end of November, having surged 2.33% during October. So, that was the most significant monthly increase since January 2018. However, the currency pair has come under pressure, pouring cold water over the optimism generated by October’s 2.3% gain.

On the other hand, Consumer spending, as represented by retail sales, is anticipated to have increased at an annualized rate of 1.1% in October, having increased by 3.4% in the previous month. The retail sales data is scheduled to release at 07:00 GMT.

Meanwhile, the data due at 08:55 GMT is expected to show the economy added 5,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate continued steady at 5%. The Post-German data, the focus would shift to the Eurozone consumer price index and the jobless rate, scheduled for release at 10:00 GMT. 

The EUR currency may come under the selling pressure and hit the bearish track if the German jobs data disappoint expectation. As we know, Germany is already facing bearish pressure from the external sector. If the labor market cools sharply, the consumers will likely shift on the purse saving mood, leading to a deeper economic recession.

On the other side, the EUR/USD currency pair will likely find love if the key data crosses the forecast figures. Notably, the gains could be short-lived due to the United States and China trade tensions. As we all well aware that President Donald Trump signed the Hong Kong Democracy Bill earlier this week, irritating China. That could hurt the trade matters.

Daily Support and Resistance

    

  • S3 1.0958
  • S2 1.098
  • S1 1.099

Pivot Point 1.1002

  • R1 1.1012
  • R2 1.1024
  • R3 1.1046

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR currency outlined a sideways trading pattern, which is signifying neutral bias among traders, and that’s mostly due to the limited volatility ahead of the weekend. However, traders are strengthening the downside bias put forward by the lower high at 1.1097 established on November 21.  

The 14-day relative strength index is proposing bullish bias, but it’s directing lower now as it’s valued may cross below 50. Let’s look for bearish trades below 1.1020 level today to target 1.1099 and 1.0960.


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair is consolidating in the narrow range of 1.2910-1.2917. The pair got support from the polls showing continued fame of the ruling Conservative Party. Moreover, probably the reason behind the lack of more strength is the stepping back of the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnsons from certain debates.

After the YouGov’s poll of a clear lead of the ruling Tory Party over the opposition Labour Party, accusations on the United Kingdom Prime Minster raised as he stepped back from the debate on channel4 and is yet to confirm an interview with BBC’s Andrew Neil, as per the Independent. Whereas the opposition leaders have started using rude words and media support the reaction, probably due to this, they will lose their fame ere the December snap election.

The Conservative’s boss was recently criticized by the opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn regarding selling the National Healthcare Systems (NHS) to the United States, citing leaked government papers. The decreasing chances of another strong poll supporting the Troy leadership and the greenback recovery are the major catalyst to drive trading volume in the GBP/USD pair.

So far, the market risk sentiment is still directionless, with the United States’ ten-year Treasury yields taking rounds to 1.77% with Asian equities flashing mixed signals.

Looking ahead, the half-day trading session in the U.S. and shortage of data and events will likely keep the market unactive. However, political and trade headlines will entertain the traders.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2698
  • S2 1.2794
  • S1 1.2857

Pivot Point 1.2891

  • R1 1.2954
  • R2 1.2987
  • R3 1.3083

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

On Friday, the GBP/USD continues to above the suggested support level of 1.2880. The pair has formed neutral candles above this level as traders are waiting for a fundamental reason to get in the market. 

On the 2-hour timeframe, the RSI and MACD are holding near 50 and 0, suggesting neutral bias among investors. Therefore, we may see a slightly bearish trend in the GBP/USD below 1.29400 area until a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2900. Consider staying bullish above 1.2900 today to target 1.2945/65. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

 The USD/JPY currency pair is flashing red and hit the session low near the 109.46, having hit the high of 109.60 three hours ago. As of writing, the currency pair is consolidating in the day’s range of 109.47-109.59.

The USD/JPY currency pair is stepping back, possibly following the slow descent of the S&P 50 futures. The index futures were down 0.10% in early Asia and are currently reporting a 0.26 decline. Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) Governor Kuroda was out on the wires a few minutes before press time asking for structural changes. Kuroda told Parliament that structural reforms must accompany fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to heighten the economy’s long-term growth potential and added that the central bank’s ultra-loose policy is aimed at boosting inflation to 2% and not monetize debt. 

Governor Kuroda’s comments are not surprising because the central bank has little capacity to stimulate, having run an expansionary monetary policy for more than 6-years. 

Looking forward, the Japanese Yen will likely continue to gain ground, because equities may trade risk-averse in the wake of the decision by President Trump to sign the Hong Kong Democracy Bill. 


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 108.42
  • S2 108.92
  • S1 109.24

Pivot Point 109.42

  • R1 109.74
  • R2 109.93
  • R3 110.43

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is consolidating at 109.425, and it has just begun to trade in the overbought zone as the RSI and MACD are stuck in the overbought territory. On the 4 hour graph, the USD/JPY has created a Doji and Spinning top, which typically implies chances neutral bias in the USD/JPY.  

On the downside, the USD/JPY may drop towards 38.2% Fibonacci retracement until 109.150. Besides Fibonacci, the bullish channel is also supporting the USD/JPY at the same level. So look for taking a sell trade below 109.700 today to target 109.200 and buying above 109.300 to target 109.700. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 28 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Happy Thanksgiving! 

The U.S. dollar kept trading within a tight range on Wednesday, amid thin trading before the Thanksgiving holiday. The ICE Dollar Index closed broadly flat on the day at 98.31.

The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.2930. A U.K. election poll showed that the Conservative would retain a majority of seats in the parliament. The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1005, while USD/JPY gained 0.3% to 109.38. 

The Federal Reserve released the Beige Book, which stated that economic activity expanded modestly, the outlook remains positive, and growth is expected to continue into next year. Besides, theU.S. economic data, third-quarter GDP growth was revised to 2.1% (1.9% expected and previously estimated), and durable goods orders increased 0.6% on month in October (-0.9% estimated).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair consolidates on the uncertain track and may face a hard time defending crucial support until the German inflation data blows past predictions, weakening dovish ECB expectations. Today, the German inflation data is scheduled to release at 13:00 GMT.

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair seems set for a possible break below 1.0994, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 1.0879 to 1.1179.

At the USD front, the greenback got the support mainly due to the 3rd-quarter gross domestic product was updated higher to 2.1% from 1.9%, in the wake of positive consumer spending data. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, soared higher to 2.1% from 1.9% in the 2nd-quarter. The inflation gauge exceeded an expectation of 1.7%.

It must be noted that the upbeat data of the U.S. may push the greenback further high on the day. Traders will be likely to sell dollars over increases uncertainty as President Trump’s decision to sign the Hong Kong Democratic Bill has irritated the Dragon Nation, and fears have increased regarding side effects on the trade deal. This is evident from the 0.25% drop in the S&P 500 futures seen at press time.

Looking forward, the breakdown will likely remain elusive manly if the preliminary German consumer price index for November crosses expectations by a considerable range, creating the opportunity for the European Central Bank head Christine Lagarde to maintain her neutral-to-hawkish stance for some time.

On the flip side, the CPI is anticipated to drop 0.6% month-on-month in November, having increased by 0.1% in October. The EUR/USD currency pair may plan a notable bounce from $1.10 if the inflation figure crosses estimates by a significant margin.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0958
  • S2 1.098
  • S1 1.099

Pivot Point 1.1002

  • R1 1.1012
  • R2 1.1024
  • R3 1.1046

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On the technical side, the EUR currency charted a bearish engulfing candle yesterday, strengthening the downside bias put forward by the lower high at 1.1097 established on November 21. On the technical side, indicating the route of least resistance is to the bearish. The 14-day relative strength index is suggesting selling conditions with as the RSI value holds below 50, and the daily MACD histogram is again printing deeper bars below the zero line, a sign of strengthening bearish momentum. Let’s look for staying bullish above or bearish below 1.1000 level today to target 1.1055 on the upper side and 1.0985 on the lower side. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair flashing green and hit the 4-day high to 1.2920, mainly due to the ruling Tory party, which will keep the helm of the United Kingdom with a vast majority. The YouGov Poll on the MRP model is highly appreciated for its forecasts regarding the United Kingdom’s result since they forecasted a suspended parliament in 2017. 

The poll suggests Conservatives gain 359 seats against the opposition Labour Party’s 211 seat estimate. Apart from this, It also shows that 43% of vote share will be allocated to the ruling Tories against Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour Party’s 32% expected share, which in turn indicates an 11-point lead of the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson led Conservatives over the Labour Party.

On the other hand, the GBP/USD currency pair is found under pressure during the Asian session today. The GBP currency has initially fallen mainly due to expectations that the Tory announcement might leave a negative impact on the ruling party popularity ahead of the December Snap election. But now the GBP/USD is likely to find enough support below at the 1.2900 regions to bounce yet again. 

A report came from the Guardian’s journalist Owen Jones that the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservatives have a significant majority over the Labour Party in the YouGov’s MRP poll.

Looking forward, the traders will just have limited data to trade as the United States enjoys thanksgiving holiday. Therefore, trade and political headlines will keep the market active.


Daily Support and Resistance

    

  • S3 1.2698
  • S2 1.2794
  • S1 1.2857

Pivot Point 1.2891

  • R1 1.2954
  • R2 1.2987
  • R3 1.3083

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

On Thursday, the GBP/USD has hit our previously suggested target level of 1.2880; in fact, it soared further to trade around 1.2940 level. Currently, the pair has entered the overbought zone, as we can see on the 2-hour timeframe, the RSI and MACD are holding near 70 suggesting chances of a bearish correction.

Therefore, we may see a slightly bearish trend in the GBP/USD below 1.29400 area until a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2900. Consider staying bullish above 1.2900 today to target 1.2945/65. 

 USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red and dropped by 0.13% to 109.38, mainly due to fears regarding United States President Donald Trump’s decision to sign the Hong Kong bill. It may irritate China and could drop a negative impact on the trade talks. 

As a result, the safe-haven currency Japanese Yen has picked up buying. The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 109.38, representing a 0.13% drop on the day. The pair has dropped more than 20 pips in the last 90 minutes or so. 

The U.S. President Trump signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act in early Asia, reaffirming support for Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests after the majority of the City’s districts turned in favor of pro-democracy candidates with record voter turnout this week.

It must be noted that China has repeatedly warned the U.S. administration not to interfere in their internal affairs. Therefore, President Trump’s move will likely hurt the relationship with China at a time when both sides are trying to reach a “phase one” trade deal.

Looking forward, deeper declines could be in the offing if the Asian and European equities turn risk-averse concerning the latest political developments. 

At the USD front, the greenback found on the buying track during the United States trading hours on Wednesday, mainly due to official data, which showed the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.1% in the 3rd-quarter, driven by strong consumer spending. Notably, the pair hit a 6-month high of 109.61 before dropping on Trump’s decision to sign Hong Kong Democracy bill. 

Daily Support and Resistance

    

  • S3 108.42
  • S2 108.92
  • S1 109.24

Pivot Point 109.42

  • R1 109.74
  • R2 109.93
  • R3 110.43

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 109.425, and it has just entered the overbought zone as the RSI and MACD are stuck in the overbought territory. On the 4 hour chart, the USD/JPY has formed a tweezers top, which typically suggests chances of a bearish bias trend in the USD/JPY. 

On the downside, the USD/JPY may drop towards 38.2% Fibonacci retracement until 109.150. Besides Fibonacci, the bullish channel is also supporting the USD/JPY at the same level. So consider taking a sell trade below 109.500 today to target 109.200. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, November 27 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – U.S. GDP In Play! 

The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed on Tuesday, closing relatively flat on the day at 98.25. The euro gained 0.1% to $1.1022. The German GfK Consumer Confidence Index edged up to 9.7 in December (9.6 expected and in November).

On the fundamental’s front, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 125.5 in November (127.0 expected) from 126.1 in October. Wholesale inventories rose 0.2% on month in October (as expected), while new home sales fell to an annualized rate of 733,000 units (705,000 units estimated) from 738,000 units in September. Let’s took at today’s trade setups

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing red and hit the record lows to trade below the seven months lows. At the moment, the currency pair is currently trading at 1.1015.

The reason behind decreased uncertainty could be the recent progress in the United States and China trade deal, which is likely to resolve issues. 

For now, the focus is likely to be on the U.S. data Q3 GDP, Personal Spending (Oct), Durable Goods Orders (Oct), Weekly Jobless Claims. The 3rd-quarter annualized GDP is forecasted to be unchanged at 1.9%. The economy increased by 2% and 3.1% in the 2nd and the 1st quarter as well.

With that being said, a prolonged period of low volatility often paves the way for a big move on either side. The level of uncertainty will drop if both nations reach a trade agreement. This ultimately can drive a significant drop in the common currency against the U.S. dollar. 

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0959
  • S2 1.0988
  • S1 1.1001
  • Pivot Point 1.1017
  • R1 1.103
  • R2 1.1045
  • R3 1.1074

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On the technical side, indicating the route of least resistance is to the bearish. The 14-day relative strength index is suggesting selling conditions with as the RSI value holds below 50, and the daily MACD histogram is again printing deeper bars below the zero line, a sign of strengthening bearish momentum. The double bottom pattern on the 4-hour chart is extending support to the direct currency pair. Let’s look for staying bullish above or bearish below 1.1000 level today to target 1.1055 on the upper side and 1.0985 on the lower side. 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair found on the bearish track and still on the backfoot while dropping 1.2850, mainly due to showing depreciation in the ruling Conservative Party lead. The greenback strength leaves a negative impact on the GBP/USD currency pair.

The Tory announcement is already under criticism for its lack of defense, failure to mention promises on the National Healthcare System (NHS), and Brexit’s deadline is keeping the political depression for the ruling party. The Independent says that former senior judge blames the United Kingdom’s (U.K.) ‘s current Prime Minister for his reckless private life.

On the other hand, the United States President Donald Trump continues its hopes of a phase-one deal with China even after the media releases from Beijing that blamed the U.S. for unfair behavior. The greenback stays on the bullish track across the board because investors still trust the U.S. dollar during the risk-on sentiment.

For now, there is no significant data and event is scheduled to release from the United Kingdom, the United States economic calendar is full of critical figures ranging from the 2nd-version on 3rd-quarter (Q3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to October month Durable Goods Orders. The markets will keep their eyes on the U.S. Personnel Income and Spending, coupled with the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index.

Ahead of the data, T.D. Securities anticipates the Core PCE to stay around 0.7% YoY whereas also expecting Durable Goods Orders to recover to -1.0%.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2748
  • S2 1.2818
  • S1 1.2859
  • Pivot Point 1.2887
  • R1 1.2928
  • R2 1.2956
  • R3 1.3025

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD is now heading lower to test the triple bottom support area of 1.2820. The cable seems to close a tweezers bottom pattern on the 2-hour chart, which is famous for driving a bullish trend in the market. So here we can expect GBP/USD to trade bullish above 1.2820 to target 1.2880 later today. 

 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair found on the bullish track, extending its recent recovery rally. As of writing, the currency pair currently trading at 109.15. The USD/JPY pair hit the two-weeks high during the Asian session mainly due to the positive headlines which came out from the United States and China regarding trade deal.

The pair closed beyond 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since early November because the market’s risk sentiment further improved. Traders, the primary reason behind such a drop in uncertainty is increasing expectations that the United States (U.S.) and China will soon sign an initial, or phase-one, trade deal.

Elsewhere, the new trade headlines came from the United States President Donald Trump that we are very close to making a deal with China. The South China Morning Post’s (SCMP) story highlights the Commerce Secretary’s order to protect telecommunication networks and their supply chains from national security warnings. Though, the same fails to get much of the attention.

At the Fed front, the positive comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell and Governor Lael Brainard also supported the USD/JPY currency pair. Notably, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell praised the current economic status and the present monetary policy, whereas Governor Brainard said that the economic risk outlook still weak, but the sentiment seems to be improving. 

Traders did not give much focus on the comment from the President of the Federal Reserve bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, that the United States economy has a good opportunity to grow by 25 in the coming year. Still, unfortunately, the growth in the 4th-quarter is going to be weak.

The 2nd version of the 3rd-quarter US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and October month Durable Goods Orders will be closely observed in the U.S. economic calendar as well as the comments from the Bank of Joana board member Makoto Sakurai, and trade headlines can be kept for intermediate direction.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3: 109.38
  • R2: 109
  • R1: 108.77
  • Pivot Point 108.61
  • S1: 108.39
  • S2: 108.23
  • S3: 107.84

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 109.100, and it has just violated the horizontal resistance area of 109. The closings of bullish candles above 109 mark are suggesting further buying until 109.300 and 109.450. Besides, the MACD and RSI are still holding in the bullish zone. Consider taking buying trades over 109 to target 109.35 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 26 – Major Trade Setups – Stronger Dollar Rules the Market

The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day to 98.27, lifted by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. The euro slid 0.3% to $1.1024. The Markit eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted 46.6 in November (46.4 expected, 45.9 in October), while Services PMI declined to 51.5 (52.4 expected) from 52.2.

The sentiment was lifted after Chinese President Xi Jinping called for Beijing and Washington to strengthen communications.

Regarding U.S. economic data, the Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (preliminary reading) posted 52.2 in November (51.4 expected, 51.3 in October). The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (final reading) came in at 96.8 (95.7 expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair looking flat and consolidates in the narrow range of 1.1012 / 1.1016. Looking forward, this pair will likely hit the 4-day winning rally mainly due to the hints came regarding a rate cut from the Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell on Monday that interest rates are unlikely to increase anytime soon.

Notably, Powell’s comments indicate the Federal Reserve is likely to hold rates steady for some time until the inflation spikes well above 2 percent.

Therefore, the markets will likely offer the greenback and supporting the EUR/USD currency pairs to hit the bullish level for the first time after November 19. As we know, the currency pair found oo the bearish track yesterday to confirm the 4th-consecutive daily decline.

While Powell’s comments may weigh over the U.S. dollar, the upside in the common currency looks limited, courtesy of weaker Eurozone and German PMIs released last Friday.

Whereas on the other hand, the Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell’s comments could leave the pressure on the greenback, the bullish move in the EUR currency looks limited in the wake of weaker Eurozone and the German PMIs released last Friday.

At the Sino-US front, the report came that the United States and China have reached on the solving trade deal and reduced the risk appetite sentiment in the market. That is visible from the flat action in the Chinese Yuan and the Australian dollar currency. Whereas, the futures on the S&P 500 are also trading in a sideways manner. 

    

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1036

S2 1.1056

S1 1.1067

Pivot Point 1.1076

R1 1.1087

R2 1.1095

R3 1.1115

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD traded as we forecast to drop to 1.1010 level after forming a bearish hammer candle during the previous week. For the moment, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1020 level and has developed a bullish engulfing pattern on the 2-hour chart. It’s suggesting strong chances of a bullish reversal until 1.1040 and 1.1060 the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci resistance areas. Let’s consider staying bullish above 1.1015 level today to target 1.1060. 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair sidelined and consolidates in the narrow range near the 1.2900 mainly due to traders takes clues from the trade news and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell diverting markets attention off from the United Kingdoms matters.

At the Sino-US front, the report came that the official from the United States and China discussed the multiple ways to resolve the trade deal matter over the phone call raised the chances of the phase-1 deal between the world’s biggest nations. Traders are ignoring the rising uncertainty regarding the 2nd-phase deal.

Moreover, the United States Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell crossed wires while delivering the speech at the Providence Chamber of Commerce Annual Meeting in Rhode Island. The Fed avoided giving any fresh hints regarding future monetary policy. By the way, his positive preference for household spending ruled out the negative comments regarding global trade and jobs increase.

As well as, the greenback increases its recent rally, whereas the risk sentiment stays almost positive due to the United States’ 10-year treasury yields and major stock indices.

In the United Kingdom (U.K.), the ruling Conservatives and the opposition parties are at each other after the Tory leader, Boris Johnson, released the party’s announcement during the weekend. Whereas the Labour Party is struggling to detect mistakes in the Tory promises, ordering from National Healthcare System (NHS) to Defence, the Liberal Democrats (LibDems) doubts the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson led to party’s ability to offer smooth Brexit before the Christmas.

There is no significant data and event for decorating the economic calendar, so the traders will keep their eyes on the U.S. catalysts to plan near-term trading bias. Moreover, the 2nd-tier housing and manufacturing data will join Consumer Confidence and speech from the Fed Governor Lael Brainard.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2651

S2 1.2756

S1 1.2794

Pivot Point 1.2862

R1 1.29

R2 1.2967

R3 1.3073

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD has opened higher to 1.2865 following a massive fall to 1.2822 on Friday, which would yield consolidation ahead of another bearish wave from 1.2985 extends to 1.2775. Lets us reckon Nov’s low of 1.2769 as it supports the GBP/USD around the same level if 1.2825 level gets violated. Consider staying bearish below 1.2875 level today to target 1.2825 

 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY closed at 108.917 after placing a high of 108.975 and a low of 108.596. Overall the movement for USD/JPY remained Bullish that day.

China said on Sunday that it would seek to improve protections for intellectual property rights, including raising the upper limits for compensation for rights violations. 

China rolled out plans to strengthen its rules on copyrights, patents, and trademarks. This subject has been one core sticking point in more than a year of trade negotiations with the United States.

It was reported that by 2022, China would be making progress in issues that have affected intellectual property rights enforcement, such as low compensation, high costs, and the difficulty of proof. And that a better system of protection should be placed by 2025.

The rules around Intellectual property rights have been a major complaint against China and have been boosting the dispute between the most significant economies from the year. It was reported by US International trade Administration in 2018 that the estimated Intellectual Property theft has cost American businesses up to $600 billion a year.

The unauthorized access to a wide range of commercially valuable business information, technical data, trade secrets, and proprietary internal communications by the Chinese Government has been a burden on US commerce. In response to this, the need to address intellectual property rules came out against China by Trump administration, which led to increased tariffs on thousands of products and cast uncertainty on business activity across the globe.


Daily Support and Resistance

R3: 109.38

R2: 109

R1: 108.77

Pivot Point 108.61

S1: 108.39

S2: 108.23

S3: 107.84

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.700, and it has just violated the triple top resistance area of 108.600. The closings of bullish candles above 108.600 level are extending support to the safe-haven currency USD/JPY. With this, the market opens further room for buying until 109.090 for the USD/JPY pair. Besides, the MACD and RSI are still holding in the bullish zone. Consider taking buying trades over 108.650 to target 109 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 25 – Major Trade Setups – Stronger Dollar In Play! 

The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% on the day to 98.27, lifted by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. The euro slid 0.3% to $1.1024. The Markit eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted 46.6 in November (46.4 expected, 45.9 in October), while Services PMI declined to 51.5 (52.4 expected) from 52.2.

The sentiment was lifted after Chinese President Xi Jinping called for Beijing and Washington to strengthen communications.

Regarding U.S. economic data, the Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (preliminary reading) posted 52.2 in November (51.4 expected, 51.3 in October). The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (final reading) came in at 96.8 (95.7 expected).

  

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing red and will likely hit the bearish level below 1.10 on the day if the German IFO data ignore expectations. 

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair dropped from 1.1058 to 1.1014. At the end of the week, the EUR/USD was seen trading as a bearish at 1.1097, in the wake of mixed German PMIs and the dismal Eurozone PMIs. It should be noted that European Central Banks President Christianne Lagarde said the global economic uncertainty is high and asked for a fiscal boost, as required.

The recent bearish high setup will likely retest of 1.10. The pairs bearish sentiment is likely to be stronger due to the fading United States and China’s optimism. Whereas the United States and China phase-one trade deal seems not to happen soon, by the way, both nations struggling to reach on a positive outcome. Notably, the German economy has paid a heavy price for the year-long trade tensions.

The greenback found on the bullish track in the wake of unexpectedly better U.S. Markit PMIs and a bullish revision to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment.

According to the situation, there are very low reasons for the shared currency traders to take a buying under the single currency on the day, and the support at 1.10 will be likely to be failed if the German IFOs miss expectations, which is scheduled to release 09:00 GMT.

That German economy is suffering recession risk is generally accepted by now. So, the forward-looking IFO – Expectations (Nov) index will take priority over the Business Climate and the Current Assessment number. The Expectation index is seen reading at 92.5 against 91.5 in October.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0894

S2 1.0967

S1 1.0993

Pivot Point 1.104

R1 1.1066

R2 1.1113

R3 1.1187

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD traded as we forecast to drop to 1.1010 level after forming a bearish hammer candle during the previous week. For the moment, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1020 level and has developed a bullish engulfing pattern on the 2-hour chart. It’s suggesting strong chances of a bullish reversal until 1.1040 and 1.1060 the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci resistance areas. Let’s consider staying bullish above 1.1015 level today to target 1.1050. 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair found on the bearish track and currently trading at 1.2850. The Cable pair got the support from the polls showing a hike in Tory support for the December snap election before losing ground due to doubts arising from the ruling party’s latest announcement.

During the weekend, the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson released the ruling Conservative Party’s announcement that offers many austerity measures apart from smooth Brexit. Notably, the party’s commitments regarding a National Healthcare System (NHS) budget by £33.9 billion by 2023-24, an offer of 50,000 nurses and not to increase rates of income tax, national insurance or VAT till the next five years took significant attention.

However, the latest series of polls keep the Conservatives at the front seat with more than 10% points of a lead over other parties.

The GBP/USD currency pair was found on the strong bearish track on Friday, mainly due to preliminary figures of activity number keep portraying the markets Brexit fears. On the other side,

the same conflicts with the United States statistic that kept the U.S. dollar.

At the greenback front, the strong buying in the greenback came mainly due to optimism surrounding the United States and China trade deal after the United States President Donald Trump said that the trade deal with China is very close. Although the confidence remains under check with the Donald Trump administration’s willingness to take a good look at the Hong Kong bill, which in turn could resume the conflict between the U.S. and China, whereas also negatively affecting the trade negotiations.

The United Kingdom CBI Distributive Trade Survey and the United States Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index, as well as the US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, will keep under the spotlight. Moreover, the market will keep their eyes on the trade and political headlines for fresh impulse.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2651

S2 1.2756

S1 1.2794

Pivot Point 1.2862

R1 1.29

R2 1.2967

R3 1.3073

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

On Monday, the GBP/USD has opened higher to 1.2865 following a massive fall to 1.2822 on Friday, which would yield consolidation ahead of another bearish wave from 1.2985 extends to 1.2775. 

Lets us reckon Nov’s low of 1.2769 as it supports the GBP/USD around the same level if 1.2825 level gets violated. Consider staying bearish below 1.2895 level today. 

 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is flashing green and found on the bullish track despite few headlines during the weekend regarding geopolitical themes that have kept markets on alert. At of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 108.66 and consolidates in the narrow range of 108.63 and 108.69.

The market’s focus, as described in this week’s Asia open. Recap of latest progress as risk-on tones appear with trade wars and Brexit. The fresh news is slightly more favorable for risk appetite, possibly reducing the Japanese yen’s progress for the time being with USD/JPY moving between 108.48 and 108.76 on Friday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is bid on its right after dome promising data from Friday. U.S. November flash Markit PMIs contrasted with the European and U.K.’s releases, beating expectations manufacturing climbed to 51.6 (vs. est. 51.0, prior 50.6), and services rose to 52.5 (est. 51.4, prior 51.3).

For the U.S. calendar, we have the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index data, which analysts at T.D. Securities said suggest core PCE inflation could remain steady at 1.7% YoY in October, even after a notable MoM increase in healthcare prices. On the other hand, headline PCE likely rose a tenth to 1.4% YoY. Separately, we expect personal spending to advance 0.2% MoM for a 3rd-consecutive month in October, with a firm increase in services spending leading the upside.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.11

S2 108.37

S1 108.51

Pivot Point 108.62

R1 108.77

R2 108.88

R3 109.13

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.700, and it has just violated the triple top resistance area of 108.600. The closings of bullish candles above 108.600 level are extending support to the safe-haven currency USD/JPY. With this, the market opens further room for buying until 109.090 for the USD/JPY pair. Besides, the MACD and RSI are still holding in the bullish zone. 

Consider taking buying trades over 108.650 to target 109 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 22 – Major Trade Setups – Who’s Up for ECB and PMI Data?

The U.S. Dollar Index edged up 0.1% on the day to 97.96, as investors remained prudent over the prospects of a U.S.-China trade deal. The U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned that China is not stepping up in trade negotiations, while the Wall Street Journal reported that China’s chief trade negotiator Liu He had invited his U.S. counterparts for more talks.

The U.S. Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims amounted to 227,000 for the week ended November 16 (218,000 expected, 227,000 in the prior week). Existing home sales grew to an annualized rate of 5.46 million units in October (5.49 million units expected, 5.36 million units in September).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair flashing green and will likely hit the bearish track if the new European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde sounds dovish in her first policy speech. So, let’s see what will happen.

As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair currently trading near 1.1063, showing a 0.12% increase in the trading hours, by the way, the pair hit the high of 1.1097 yesterday. The new European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will be giving her first big policy speech at a banking conference in Frankfurt. She avoided talking regarding the monetary policy during her last November 4 speech in Berlin.

It should be noted that the dovish comments may send the EUR/USD currency pair near the bearish level of 1.10. The EUR currency will likely cancel the next bearish move if the Lagarde sounds hawkish regarding the policy and calls for more effort on the fiscal front.

On the other hand, the recent report came that many board members held against the previous President Draghi’s decision to add further stimulus in September. So, Lagarde has limited opportunities to raise expectations for more stimulus. Moreover, Germany avoided recession in the 3rd-quarter.

According to the forecast, the chance of Lagarde sounding neutral-to-hawkish is high. However, the resulting increases in the EUR will likely to be canceled if the preliminary Eurozone and German PMI, scheduled for release after Lagarde’s speech, disappoint expectations. The final figures for Germany’s 3rd-quarter GDP, recorded at 07:00 GMT.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0981

S2 1.1026

S1 1.1044

Pivot Point 1.107

R1 1.1089

R2 1.1115

R3 1.116

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The currency pair created a bearish hammer candle on Wednesday, indicating the bullish move from its recent lows below 1.10 has run out of steam and sign of an aggressive bearish move. However, a bearish reversal will be confirmed if the EUR/USD pair closes below the candle’s low of 1.1053 (a hammer) on Thursday. Also, a close above 1.1081 would negate the bearish hammer and signal a resumption of the recovery rally.


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair found on the bullish track the first time after the starting of the week due to a variation in the market trade sentiment. While the pair is currently taking bids to the 1.2920.

The recent recovery could partially be attributed to the silence before taking a decisive turn in the US-China trade tussle. As per the Reuters, the United States (U.S.) may delay December 15 tariff hikes while the CNBC’s news of China still having U.S. trade negotiators on their invitation list triggered risk recovery. Even so, the U.S. Navy’s claim of “Freedom of Navigation” in the South China Sea was harshly criticized by Beijing.

We may say that the recent recovery in the GBP/USD currency pair inspired by the silence before happening any positive activity in the United States and China trade deal. Moreover, the chances that the United States will likely delay the increased tariff on Chinese goods. In contrast, China invited the United States negotiators, recently trying to restore the sentiment of the market. 

However, uncertainties still surrounding the United States and China trade deal because China now awaits the United States President Donald Trumps to proceed with the Hong Kong bill after congress passed the much-criticized bill.

On the economic calendar, Markit is scheduled to release preliminary readings of the U.K.’s Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) figures, whereas the US PMIs and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also enhance the line.

On the other hand, the month brings the first flash PMIs for the U.K. For the manufacturing PMI, we look for a bit of a pullback to 49.3 (market: 48.8), as election uncertainty weighs on sentiment. Notably, the Chances for Sino-US trade deal and hard possibilities of hard Brexit should support the PMI above its lows from the summer.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.277

S2 1.2847

S1 1.2878

Pivot Point 1.2924

R1 1.2955

R2 1.3001

R3 1.3078

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

On the technical side, bears look for a daily closing below 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 1.2880 to try for monthly low surrounding 1.2770, until then 1.3000 and 1.3015 will stay on buyers’ radars. 

On a shorter timeframe, the GBP/USD is trading with a bullish bias at 1.2930. The bullish trend is mostly triggered due to the Three White Soldiers pattern, which is suggesting a strong buying trend in the GBP/USD pair. On the upper side, the immediate target is likely to be 1.2960. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair is sideways near the 108.60 and consolidates in the narrow range of 408.46 and 108.70 because markets want more transparency on the trade deal between the United States and China. 

At the Sino-US front, the chances that the United States will likely delay the increased tariff on the Chinese goods. In contrast, China invited to the United States negotiators, as delivered by the South orning Post and the Wall Street Journal, recently trying to retore the sentiment of the market. However, uncertainties still surrounding the United States and China trade deal because China now awaits the United States President Donald Trumps to proceed with the Hong Kong bill after congress passed the much-criticized bill.

Finally, the greenback drifted a little higher, whereas the United States’ two-year Treasury yields bounced off 1.55% to 1.60%. The ten-year yields rose from 1.71% to 1.78%. Markets are pricing a terminal funds rate of 1.20% (vs. 1.63% currently).

U.S. stocks closed modestly lower with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, DJIA, losing 54.8 points, or 0.2%, to 27,766.29 while the S&P 500 dropped back 4.92 points, or 0.2%, to 3,103.54. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 20.52 points, or 0.2%, to 8,506.21, having closed at its highest levels at the start of the week.

At the Japan front, the Japan October Consumer Price Index was expected to tick up fractionally, to 0.3% YoY overall, 0.6% YoY ex-fresh food & energy. 

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.11

S2 108.35

S1 108.48

Pivot Point 108.59

R1 108.72

R2 108.83

R3 109.07

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.500, just below the bearish trendline, which is extending resistance at 108.700 area. The closing od Doji candle below 108.700 level saying a lot about investors’ sentiment. On the other hand, the MACD and RSI are still holding in the bullish zone. 

Due to different sentiments, we should keep a close eye on 108.550 level today as the USD/JPY can trade bearish below and bullish above this level. On the lower side, the target remains 108.250, while 109 remains the bullish target. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 21 – Major Trade Setups – ECB Ready to Shake the Market

The U.S. Dollar Index kept trading within a tight range, closing flat at 97.83. The euro and the British pound were little changed at $1.1079 and $1.2929, respectively. The USD/JPY slipped 0.1% to 108.46. The USD/CAD advanced 0.3% to 1.3307. Official data showed that Canada’s consumer prices grew 1.9% on year in October (as expected). 

Later today, existing home sales are expected to post a growth of 2.0% on month to a yearly rate of 5.49 million units in October. The Leading Index is likely to slip by 0.2%. Besides, the U.S. unemployment claims for the week ended November 16 is anticipated to fall to 218,000 from 225,000 in the prior week.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is found on the bearish territory and created a bearish hammer candle ahead of Europan Central Bank minutes. That might anticipate that members stand divided on which course to take, in short, there could be seen the opposite sentiment as compared to earlier.

It should be noted that the market turned into the risk-off in Aisa, in the wake of political and trade uncertainty. The report came that the fair trade deal between the United States and China will likely shift into next year. Moreover, traders are also worried that resumed political tensions between the United States and China will likely damage the global economy and could complicate matters on the trade front.

On the other hand, Beijing warned the United States to do not interfere in this matter. The risk-tone also weighs down amid on-going protests in Hong Kong and Israel. 

At the ECB front, the EUR currency will likely take a buying if the ECB meeting minutes exhibits growing resistance to the massive easing package announced by the former President Draghi in September.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1012

S2 1.1041

S1 1.1057

Pivot Point 1.1069

R1 1.1085

R2 1.1097

R3 1.1126

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The currency pair created a bearish hammer candle on Wednesday, indicating the bullish move from its recent lows below 1.10 has run out of steam and sign of an aggressive bearish move. However, a bearish reversal will be confirmed if the EUR/USD pair closes below the candle’s low of 1.1053 (a hammer) on Thursday. Also, a close above 1.1081 would negate the bearish hammer and signal a resumption of the recovery rally.


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair turned to green and taking round near the 1.2930, mainly due challenges to Tories recede. After the ITV debate between the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and the opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn immediate votes challenges to Tories. The latest surveys from the Savanta Comres says that about one in five Labour voters is considering backing the Tories. 

The market has recently stayed under pressure because the United States and China trade dispute escalated, whereas the House of Representatives passed the Hong Kong bill. Risk-tone stays slow with the United States ten-year treasury yield and the Asian stocks both flashing red signals.

Whereas a shortage of significant data/events will likely keep trade/political headlines concerning the U.S. and China in the light, news from the U.K. and 2nd-tier Housing and manufacturing data from the U.S. could offer intermediate progress. 

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.283

S2 1.2872

S1 1.2897

Pivot Point 1.2913

R1 1.2939

R2 1.2955

R3 1.2997

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

On the technical side, bears look for a daily closing below 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 1.2880 to try for monthly low surrounding 1.2770, until then 1.3000 and 1.3015 will stay on buyers’ radars. 

On a shorter timeframe, the GBP/USD is trading with a bullish bias at 1.2930. The bullish trend is mostly triggered due to the Three White Soldiers pattern, which is suggesting a strong buying trend in the GBP/USD pair. On the upper side, the immediate target is likely to be 1.2960. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair increased its moderate recovery from the 50-day Moving Average support manly due to the China Vice Premier and trade negotiator Liu He stated that he is hopeful about reaching a phase-1 trade deal. 

As of now, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 108.49, representing a 0.13% decline on the day, having bounced from the 50-day moving average support of 108.28 in the last one hour.

It must be noted that Liu He is showing optimism on trade, but few traders seem to avoid going long on the JPY trades, helping the pair to show a slight recovery. However, the futures on the S&P 500, are still reporting a 0.22% decline. Moreover, the Asian equities are down with Japan’s Nikkei reporting a 1% drop.

Whereas, the United States’ ten-year treasury yield is also showing no sign of life. The Treasury yield is currently trading at two-week lows near 1.73%.

Basically, the equity and bond market are not looking so impressed by the Premier Liu He’s comments and continue to worry about declining the trade certainty due to intensifying political tension.

Therefore the USD/JPY currency pair will likely fall back to the 50-day average at 108.28. However, if the equities recover, the pair will probably move into the positive region above 108.60.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.78

S2 108.17

S1 108.39

Pivot Point 108.57

R1 108.78

R2 108.96

R3 109.35

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.500, just below the bearish trendline, which is extending resistance at 108.700 area. The closing od Doji candle below 108.700 level saying a lot about investors’ sentiment. On the other hand, the MACD and RSI are still holding in the bullish zone. 

Due to different sentiments, we should keep a close eye on 108.550 level today as the USD/JPY can trade bearish below and bullish above this level. On the lower side, the target remains 108.250, while 109 remains the bullish target. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 20 – Major Trade Setups – Eyes on U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes! 

The U.S. dollar was steady ahead of the release of the latest Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting due later today. The Dollar Index closed broadly flat at 97.82. While media reported that the U.S. and China are discussing the size of tariff rollbacks, President Donald Trump cautioned to force higher tariffs in case a deal is not reached.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD is flashing red and will likely slip from its recovery rally, and today’s close will decide the next direction. As of writing, the currency pair fluctuating in the bearish range of 1.1084-1.1063 and representing declines on the day within yesterday’s bullish and bearish range of 1.1090 and 1.1048. 

On the technical side, the EUR/USD pair created an inside bar candlesticks pattern today. Moreover, a close above the inside bar’s high of 1.1084 is needed to improve the recovery rally from 1.0989. While a close below the inside bar’s low of 1.1063 would suggest a bearish reversal.

On the other hand, the United States ten-year yields hit the two-week low of 1.763% and have dropped almost 20-basis-points since the topping out at 1.972% on November 7. Apart from Yields, the United States and China trade concerns are sending the risk assets danger.

It should be noted that the market flow may stand in favor of sellers if the FOMC’s 29-30 October meeting sounds hawkish. The meeting is scheduled to happen at 29-30 October19:00 GMT.

However, the hawkish tone has to be strong because, as we know, the financial markets have confirmed that the rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will not deliver until June of 2020.

According to Germany’s influential BDI industry association’s Managing Director Joachim Lang, manufacturing production in Europe’s economic powerhouse is anticipated to decrease by 4% this year.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1036

S2 1.1056

S1 1.1067

Pivot Point 1.1076

R1 1.1087

R2 1.1095

R3 1.1115

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD displayed bearish behavior after testing the resistance mark of 1.1090. Today, the EUR/USD pair has violated the upward channel, which supported the pair around 1.1080 level, and it’s now extending it towards 1.1050 level. Consider taking sell positions below 1.1075 today with the aim of 1.1040. 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair hit the bearish track for the second consecutive day and representing 0.19% declines on the day, mainly due to uncertainties surrounding the Tory leader’s public favor after the ITV debate. By the way, the cable pair is currently trading at 1.2915.

At the broadside, the ITV debate, which happened between the Tory and the opposition Labor leaders, seemed peaceful as both parties showed a relaxed attitude during holding to part and of Brexit and 2nd referendum, respectively. At the end of the debate, the survey surprise the GBP/USD pairs traders because the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johson got only 51% votes in his favor whereas, on the other hand, the opposition party leader Jeremy Corbyn got 49% votes. 

In addition to the recent polls of the ITV’s debate, the uncertainties over the UK PM’s refrain from publishing the news of Russian interference into the Brexit referendum and delaying the corporate tax forms also simulate challenges to the Tory administration.

At the greenback front, another reason behind the GBP/USD pairs weakness is that the U.S. Dollar extended its gains and offer more weakness to the GBP/USD pairs mainly due to the favorable housing market data from the United States. It also helped the US Dollar strength the United States Federal Reserve policymaker John C. Wiliams continued support for the current monetary policy also supported the U.D. buyers.

At the Sino-US front, the greenback extended its recovery streak on the day due to the risk-off arisen by the United States and China trade war regarding the Hong Kong bill. The risk-tone also weighs down amid on-going protests in Hong Kong and Israel. As a consequence, the U.S. 10-year treasury yields drop to 1.75%.

Looking forward, all the market’s eyes will be on the Feral Open Market Commmetiiees latest monetary policy meeting, which is scheduled to happen on 29-30 October, whereas the trade and political headlines will likely keep the trader entertaining.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2816

S2 1.2876

S1 1.2901

Pivot Point 1.2935

R1 1.296

R2 1.2995

R3 1.3055

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is consolidating in a sideways range of 1.2970 – 1.2890 as bearish bias dominates despite weakness in the U.S. dollar. The GBP/USD pair may face double top resistance at 1.2975 on the 4-hour chart. While support stays at 1.2890 level today. Below this, the GBP/USD may head towards 1.2855. 

The leading indicators such as a MACD and RSI, are holding in the selling zone, suggesting chances of more selling. Consider staying bearish below 1.2935 today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair representing marginal declines and having hit the low of 108.36, the pair is currently trading at 108.50. As of writing, the pair is fluctuating in the range of 108.38/57, mainly due to weakness in the Treasury yields and lack of fresh impulse in the trade war and Brexit.

On the green side, the USD/JPY currency pair has recovered from session lows but remains on the defensive below 109.07 despite the weakness in the Treasury yields.

At the Sino-US front, the greenback extended its recovery streak on the day due to the risk-off arisen by the United States and China trade war regarding the Hong Kong bill, and Beijing warned the United States to do not interfere in this matter. The risk-tone also weighs down amid on-going protests in Hong Kong and Israel. As in consequence, the U.S. 10-year treasury yields drop to 1.75%.

At the Brexit front, the ITV debate, which is happened between the Tory and the opposition Labor leaders, seemed peaceful because both parties showed a relaxed attitude during holding to part and of Brexit and 2nd referendum, respectively. However, at the end of the debate, the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johson got only 51% votes in his favor, whereas, on the other hand, the opposition party leader Jeremy Corbyn got 49% votes. 

Meanwhile, the Fedspeak came with New York Federal Reserve president Williams announced that the economy is in a “good place.” The U.S. 2-year Treasury yields roundtripped between 1.59% to 1.62%, while the 10-years initially rose from 1.80% to 1.83% but was then sent back to 1.78%. 

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.84

S2 108.23

S1 108.39

Pivot Point 108.61

R1 108.77

R2 109

R3 109.38

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.40, as the bearish engulfing candle on the 2-hour chart is suggesting a strong bearish bias for the pair. Closing of another bearish candle will confirm bearish setup and the safe-haven currency pair USD/JPY may drop towards 108.200 today.  

On the higher side, resistance stays at 108.600 level. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 19 – Major Trade Setups – U.S. China Trade War Plays! 

The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.1% on the day to 97.82, extending its decline to a third session. The euro gained 0.2% to $1.1072, and the British pound advanced 0.3% to $1.2947. The USD/JPY slipped 0.1% to 108.67.

After Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell met with President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to discuss the economy, the Fed released a statement saying Powell’s comments were consistent with his remarks at his congressional hearings last week.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair overall flashing green and consolidates in the narrow range of 1.1063 – 1.1076 due to renewed trade tensions leaving the selling pressure on the greenback. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair rose by 0.10% at 1.1060 and hit a high level of 1.1076.

As we all well aware that the pair extended its bullish trend for the 3rd session in a row, extending its recovery trend from the recent 5-weeks lows of 1.0990/85 range, mainly due to the selling pressure in the greenback and some fresh trade tensions.

At the Sino-US trade front, the Chinese legislators showed some attention during the earlier session regarding the singing of the Phase one deal after the United States President Donald Trump announced to ruled out the rollover of some tariffs. In the consequences, due to these concerns, the U.S. Treasury yields turned into lower and some resurgence cities in the safe-havens, weakening further the greenback sentiment.

According to the schedule, the ECBs C.Lagarde is scheduled to deliver the speech in Frankurt later in the week, whereas the investors should keep their eyes on the ECB minutes and the preliminary figures of November PMIs in core Euroland as well.

It should b noted that the pair is increasing the recovery from the last week lows in sub-1.10 range, mainly due to the renewed weakness of U.S. Dollar and hopes of the United States a China fair trade deal. 

On the other hand, the outlook in the Euroland continues weak and does nothing but justify the failure for the more extended monetary policy by the European Central Bank and the bearish outlook on the single currency in the medium term, at least. So, from this point of view, all eyes will be on the publication of flash PMIs figures for the current month later in the week.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.1

S2 1.1036

S1 1.1054

Pivot Point 1.1072

R1 1.109

R2 1.1108

R3 1.1144

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD displayed bullish behavior to examine the resistance mark of 1.1090. Today extension of buying biases can direct the EUR/USD prices towards 1.1125 areas. While support lingers around the 1.1065 area.


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair trading on the bullish track and takes buying to 1.2950 in the wake of fresh hints of political stability, and the successful Brexit keeps the cable pairs strong. As of writing, the pairs consolidate in the range of 1.2944 – 1.2967 dring the Asian session.

The GBP/USD currency pairs recently got the support from the Brexit party decrease of candidates, whereas also avoiding the Bank of England’s dovish bias.

Apart from the continued support for the tory leadership during the December election, as defined by the major surveys, the recent decision regarding the ban of liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party form the T.V.’s cross-party political discussion also speaks louder for the Conservative’s position in the United Kingdom.

Challenges are surrounding Prime Minister Boris Johnson avoid to release documents regarding Russian interference in the Brexit election stop to cuts the British locals, including Tories, highly criticize corporate tax. Moreover, the European Union stable on the decision does not change the Brexit deal gains less of market attention.

Whereas, the trade and political headlines regarding the United States and China and ITVs debate will likely keep the entertaining investors of markets, as well as, all eyes will be on the November month CBI Industrial Trends Survey data from the U.K., the U.S. Building Permits, Housing Starts and speech from the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John C. Williams.

Markets are looking for CBI industrial orders to increase from October’s multi-year low of -37 to -30 during November. We think that risks lie toward a more significant gain because the October survey hopefully didn’t capture the improvement in sentiment because Brexit success chances were increased.

The market expects housing starts to have rebounded to 1,320k in October, reflecting a firm 5.1% m/m jump. This would follow a notable -9.4% tumble in September, which was primarily driven by a sharp -28.2% m/m contraction in the volatile multifamily segment,” says T.D. Securities.

Daily Support and Resistance

    

S3 1.2826

S2 1.289

S1 1.2922

Pivot Point 1.2954

R1 1.2986

R2 1.3018

R3 1.3081

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is consolidating with a bullish bias, and it surged to test resistance mark around 1.2970 level. The GBP/USD pair is now facing a double top resistance level at 1.2975 on the 4-hour chart. Typically, the pair becomes bearish below the double top. Therefore, the GBP/USD may exhibit bearish retracement unto 1.2925 ere driving the bullish trend to 1.2975. 

The MACD and RSI are staying in the bearish zone, suggesting chances of bearish trading in the GBP/USD trading today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidates in the narrow range between the 108.60 and 108.70 so far. As of writing, the currency pair is currently trading near the 108.60.

The USD/JPY currency pair has been capped due to markets presuming a soft dollar policy from the United States administration, whereas trade discussions between the United States and China are on the close track, but the tension still surrounding the market.

The USD/JPY currency pair dropped from 109.05 in early N.Y. to just above 108.50. As for United States treasury yields, the United States’ two-year yields have been on the buying from 1.60% to 1.63% before dropping back to 1.59% due to the US-China trade doubt. The 10-year yields also dropped from 1.85% to 1.80%. 

On the technical side, the USD/JPY pair now tries to re-test 50% Fibonacci retracement of April-August drops at 108.40. However, a confluence of 50 and 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 108.30/25 will be the key to limit the pair’s further bearish sentiment. The Japanese Trade Minister was on the wires last minutes, also telling the need for an extra budget of around JPY 10 trillion.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.63

S2 108.19

S1 108.44

Pivot Point 108.75

R1 109

R2 109.32

R3 109.88

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.60, completing 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 108.550. For now, this level also works a double bottom support level as the USD/JPY prices are pushing higher. 

On the uppers side, the USD/JPY may find resistance at 108.700, and bullish breakout of this level can extend buying until 108.900 level today. Consider taking sell positions below 108.900 to target 108.500 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 18 – Major Trade Setups – Risk-on Sentiment In Play

On Monday, the market trades with a risk-on sentiment over the faded safe-haven appeal. Significant forex pairs indicated time on Monday as traders observed to whether Washington and Beijing can promptly approve an agreement to end a trade war that has been a drag on word’s economic growth.

  EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair hit the bullish track and currently trading at 1.1061, As of writing, the pair consolidates between the range of 1.1048 – 1.1065 on the day and hit the weekly highs at 1.1065 mainly due to greenback weakness against the bucket of currencies. The buyers join the latest bullish trend, awaiting fresh trading clues and keep their eyes on ECB-speak.

On the EUR-side of the equation, the Eurozone October inflation came in as expected, up by 0.7% YoY and core CPI up by 1.1%, which supported the continuing bullish drive in the common currency.

Looking forward, the buyers target the 100-DMA now located at 1.1093 should the recovery momentum continue. On the other side, the 50-DMA at 1.1042 could defend the downside if the ECB speakers support dovish expectations. However, the United States and China’s trade progress will keep under the spotlight for getting the fresh impulse.

    


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0957

S2 1.0999

S1 1.1026

Pivot Point 1.1042

R1 1.1069

R2 1.1084

R3 1.1126

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD proceeds to trade higher, violating the resistance level of 1.1000, which now is working as a support. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has three white soldiers candlestick pattern, which is signaling chances of further buying in the EUR/USD. At the moment, the EUR/USD is holding at the resistance level of 1.1065 as above this; the pair can continue to soar until 1.1080. So consider staying bullish above 1.1065 and bearish below the same level today.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair consolidates in the range of 12909 – 1.2933, representing 0.20% gains on the day. As of writing, the pair is currently trading at 1.2925 and faced a month old falling trend line resistance due to the increasing expectations of Tory leadership after the December elections. As well as the hardship for the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson, limit the further pair’s upside.

The market’s trade sentiment still slows with the United States’ ten-year treasury yields taking rounds to 1.82%, whereas most Asian shares are flashing mixed signals.

Looking forward, traders will now keep their eyes on British prime minister Boris Johnson’s speech at Confederation of British Industry’s annual conference for getting a new direction to move ahead. At the economic calendar front, the US NAHB Housing Market Index figures for November, expected to remain at 71, will keep the thin line of statistics. However, trade and political headlines will keep under the spotlight.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2793

S2 1.2845

S1 1.2874

Pivot Point 1.2897

R1 1.2926

R2 1.2949

R3 1.3001

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD continues to trend upward to test our previously suggested upper corner of a wide trading range of 1.2970 – 1.2780. 

The MACD and RSI are lingering in overbought territory as their values linger at 0 and 50, respectively. Besides this, the chances of bullish correction are becoming very strong. 

At the time, the GBP/USD trades at 1.2940 level, and it may find support immediate support around 1.2920. I will consider taking buying positions above 1.2920 and bearish positions if this level breaks on the lower side. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidates in the narrow range between the 108.75 and 109.00, mainly due to intensifying tensions in Hong Kong and lack of trade war hopes.

So, the risk-off sentiment raises so far, with S&P 500 futures down -0.15%, Treasury yields falling almost 0.50%, whereas the Asian equity markets trade with moderate losses. The Japanese Yen currency still on the supported track and keeping a break above the 109 range.

If talking about the greenback, the U.S. Dollar still on the bearish track due to the losses in the Treasury yields. As in result, this situation sending lower the USD/JPY currency pair. Moreover, the investors are on the waiting mood and await some transparency regarding the United States and China trade deal and FOMC minutes for fresh trading direction, because the United States economic calendar seem light during this week.

As of writing, the U.S. Dollar Index traded 0.1% lower to 97.810. The Federal Reserve will announce the minutes of it’s October meeting on Wednesday, and several Federal Reserve policymakers are scheduled to speak before the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday.


Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.96

S2 108.33

S1 108.55

Pivot Point 108.7

R1 108.93

R2 109.08

R3 109.45

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.90, crossing over 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This level also marks a double bottom resistance level, but that has now been violated and may keep the USD/JPY pair supported today.

The violation of the 108.90 level can extend buying until 109.200. The MACD and RSI are also supporting the bullish trend in the USD/JPY pair. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 14 – Major Trade Setups – German Prelim GDP In Focus! 

On Thursday, the safe-haven demand remains high as the trader’s eyes stay on the United States and China trade news to observe the impact on the riks sentiment, which continues to play an impactable role in the USD/JPY currency par prices. The market will closely be observing the US producer Prices Index an Unemployment Claims data, which is scheduled to release ahead of day 2 of Powell’s testimony.

At the Hong Kong front, the Hong Kong civil unrest and violence take the worst turn for the 4th-straight day on Thursday, after the police reported that a man dressed in black and aged in his 30s died.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

   


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair currently trading near the level of 1.1006 on the day. Even after the pair spot staying below 200-bar Simple Moving Average, the EUR/USD currency pair bounces off 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its October month upward. 

However, the buyers will likely wait for a bullish break of 200-bar moving Average at 1.1058 now, followed by 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and late-October lows surrounding 1.1065/75, to target 1.1100 marks.

On the positive side, if the GDP positive release, the pair may attempt recovery of 1.1040 and 1.156, the confluence zone of the 50 and 10-DMA. Buyers will likely try for the test of the 100-day Moving Average at 1.1100 on a continues break above the last. 

On the technical side, the pairs Techincal st up continues to favor the buyers because the EUR/USD pair still on the track to test the immediate support of mid-October lows near the 1.0991. While the break bellow will likely escalate selling pressure, because of the buyer’s eyes 1.0950 as the next support, the more bearish trend in pairs could hit the multi-year lows of 1.0879 over again.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0958

S2 1.0983

S1 1.0996

Pivot Point 1.1008

R1 1.1021

R2 1.1033

R3 1.1058

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD continues to trade lower, maintaining a bearish bias after violating the support level of 1.1000. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has inside down candlestick pattern, which is signaling chances of further sell-off in the market. 

For the moment, the EUR/USD is holding below a crucial trading level of 1.1000 as below this; the pair can continue falling until 1.0960. So consider staying bearish below 1.1000 level today.


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair sideways and taking round to 12840 mainly due to optimism surrounding the United Kingdom political plays face the greenback strength ahead of the United Kingdom Retail Sales Data for October.

Brexit party leader Nigel Farage’s denial of the Conservative’s request of standing down more than 317 candidates, earlier promised, will likely negatively affect the British Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s popularity. The United Kingdom’s (UK) PM Boris Johnson was recently hackled during a speech to the flood-affected area. Whereas, surveys regarding the December election keep showing Tories holding power.

Looking forward to October, UK Retail Sales could boost the GBP/USD demand if it hit the upbeat predictions. However, the market’s rush to risk-safety can increase the USD gains if the Fed Chair support upside momentum during his Testimony 2.0.

Overview of UK Retail Sales, the UK retail sales, scheduled to be released later this session at 0930 GMT, is forecasted to come in at 0.2% MoM in October, after no increase seen in September. Total retail sales are seen coming at 3.7% over the year in the reported month, up from 3.1% booked previously.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2767

S2 1.2806

S1 1.2829

Pivot Point 1.2845

R1 1.2868

R2 1.2884

R3 1.2923

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD is consolidating in the broad trading range of 1.2970 – 1.2780, while if we narrow it down, it becomes 1.2870 – 1.2785. The MACD and RSI have passed above 0 and 50, sequentially, indicating the probabilities of a downward movement in the GBP/USD. 

At the moment, the GBP/USD trades at 1.2835 level, and it may find support around 1.2785. I will consider taking buying positions above 1.2845 and selling below the same level today. 

 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair failed to hit the recovery track from thee 6-days lows of 108.65 and still stands near the range of 108.80 area, mainly due to on-going trade uncertainty between the United States and China. On the other hand, the pairs didn’t get any impact by the Japans Q3 GDP because of the renewed Sino-US trade war.

The Japanese Preliminary Q3 GDP rate slightly increased even less-than-expected across the time limit. However, the Japanese yen currency gave little attention to the sluggish figure releases. The Japanese yen continued getting support from the risk-off sentiment in Wall Street’s futures and global equities mainly after the United States and China trade tension again escalated during the overnight trading hours.

Trader’s eyes stay on the United States and China trade news to observe the impact on the riks sentiment, which continues to play an impactable role in the USD/JPY currency par prices. The market will closely be observing the US producer Prices Index an Unemployment Claims data, which is scheduled to release ahead of day 2 of Powell’s testimony.

At the Hong Kong front, the Hong Kong civil unrest and violence take the worst turn for the 4th-straight day on Thursday, after the police reported that a man dressed in black and aged in his 30s died.

Despite the Hong Kong confusion and renewed US-China trade tensions, the market mood looks to be developing over the last, with S&P 500 futures having flashed green as well as the Japanese stocks. This has helped put a minor buying under USD/JPY that is now trading in session highs near the 108.85 regions.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.87

S2 108.37

S1 108.57

Pivot Point 108.86

R1 109.06

R2 109.36

R3 109.85

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is trading at 108.70, right above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This level also marks double bottom support and may keep the USD/JPY pair supported today.

The violation of the 108.700 level can extend selling until 108.500, the 61.8% Fibo level today. The MACD and RSI are also supporting the bearish trend in the USD/JPY pair. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 13 – Major Trade Setups – Fed Chair Speech In Focus! 

On Wednesday, the global financial markets await the Fed Chair speech along with the CPI (Consumer Price Index) data from the U.K and the U.S. The United States and China trade front, the trade concerns between the United States and China are getting severe, with the Trump administration warned to increase the tariff but not until the deal gets confirmation.

We look for CPI to decline from 1.8% y/y in September to 1.5% in October (mkt 1.6%), in line with the BoE’s forecast from November. Let’s take a more in-depth look at the technical side of the market. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

  


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair found on the high range of 1.10 handle, as of now, the pair consolidate in the narrow range around the 1.10 handle because tye buyers await for the key inflation report and Federal Reserve Chair Powells statement for the next move.

As of writing, the currency pair is found slightly supported from the pause in the greenback strength after the United States President Trump’s latest comments failed to offer any detail on the United States and China trade agreement and due to this partial trade deal’s uncertainty increased. The U.S. Dollar index trades flat near the 98.30, consolidating the increase to a 4-week high of 98.42.

On the technical side, the 5-Moving Average barrier at 1.1025 is could to reduce the recovery attempts, whereas the bearish sees the next support around the 1.0950 level. The sub-1.1000 levels could be tested on a likely increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is scheduled to release at 1330 GMT.

Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1.0944

S2 1.0981

S1 1.0995

Pivot Point 1.1017

R1 1.1031

R2 1.1053

R3 1.1089

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with a slightly bullish bias since it violated the resistance level of 1.1025. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has formed a bullish engulfing candle, which is signaling chances of further buying in the market. 

For the moment, the EUR/USD is concentrating on a critical trading level of 1.1060, which is probable to hold the EUR/USD bearish below this mark. Below this level, the EUR/USD may gain support at 1.1025 and 1.1000 level today. 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair found near the 1.2850, notably the lack of significant impetus from the United Kingdom, has recently limited the cable pairs movement, as well as the market traders on the waiting track ahead of the critical data and events. 

After the mixed figures of the British employment details, the GBP/USD currency pair saw another pressure on the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Jonhson to release a report regarding the Russian interference in the 2016 Brexit referendum. 

On the United States and China trade front, the trade concerns between the United States and China are getting severe, with the Trump administration warned to increase the tariff but not until the deal gets confirmation.

We look for CPI to decline from 1.8% y/y in September to 1.5% in October (mkt 1.6%), in line with the BoE’s forecast from November MPR. The complete deceleration in inflation is due to energy prices; household energy prices will be affected by the OFGEM cap, while fuel prices may decline a bit on a y/y basis. Stripping out the volatility, we’re looking for core CPI to hold steady at 1.7% y/y (Mkt 1.7%).

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2728

S2 1.2787

S1 1.2816

Pivot Point 1.2845

R1 1.2875

R2 1.2904

R3 1.2962

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD appears to have broken the bearish trendline resistance of 1.2825 upon the release of optimistic GDP figures. The MACD and RSI have crossed above 0 and 50, respectively, implying the odds of a bullish bias in the GBP/USD. The Cable may find immediate support at 1.2845 level. But the closing of candles above 1.2845 area suggests a strong chance of buying trend continuation. 

Consider taking buying positions above 1.2845 and selling below the same level today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair still consolidates in the bearish range of 109 handles, and traders are found on the waiting track even after the latest updates regarding Hong Kong protests and the United States and China trade deal.

Whereas the intensifying uncertainty between the United States and China trade deal as well as the protest unrest in Hong Kong, keep leaving bearish pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair, the overall hawkish sentiment at the Federal Reserve limits the bearish off-late.

Officials from the United States, including President Donald Trump and White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow, just show a willingness to raise the tariff on the Chinese goods if the round-1 talks fail. Moreover, the political also did clear that the existing tariff could reduce but not until the deal gets confirmation.

Market traders are now planning for the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powells statement in front of the Joint Economic Committee, and traders will closely follow Fed speak, whereas the market is also waiting for the October month Consumer Prices Index.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.33

S2 108.7

S1 108.86

Pivot Point 109.07

R1 109.23

R2 109.44

R3 109.81

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair is forming higher’s high and higher’s low pattern on the 4-hour chart, which suggesting bullish bias among traders. The USD/JPY has immediate support at 108.900 and resistance at 109.400. 

The MACD is forming histograms in the bearish zone, but the recent histogram is likely to develop above 0, and it may drive more buying until 109.450 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 12 – Major Trade Setups – Trump’s Speech Ahead! 

The buck slipped along with the global stock, which plunged on Monday following the U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments during the weekend tore investor confidence that Washington and Beijing would immediately reach an agreement to settle their debilitating trade war.

At the Sino-US trade front, the United States and China trade tension flashing continuously, whereas the United States interference in the Hong Kong protests awaits China’s response fro fresh risk-off. The market’s risk-tone continues slowly, with the United States ten-year treasury yields being around 1.92%, with most Asian stocks flashing mixed signals. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range of 1.1030 and 1.1050 due to the greenback continues its recovery rally. As of writing, the pair mostly trades near the 1.10 range during on the day, because of USD strength. As we all well aware, the uncertainty surrounding the United States and China trade deal and Hong Kong’s civil protest worries resurged the demand for safety, so that’s why the market was favoring the U.S. currency.

Whereas, on the EUR-side of the equation, the uncertain result of the Spanish general election combined with Eurozone economic growth worries continues to remain a bearish impact on the common currency.

Markets now traders keenly await the German macro news and some new transparency on the US-China trade front for fresh trading impulse, whereas Trump’s speech scheduled today at 1700 GMT will likely also direct the next moves in the spot.

Daily Support and Resistance  

S3 1.0953

S2 1.0992

S1 1.1006

Pivot Point 1.1031

R1 1.1045

R2 1.107

R3 1.1108

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is trading with a slightly bullish bias since it violated the resistance level of 1.1025. On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has formed a bullish engulfing candle, which is signaling chances of further buying in the market. 

For the moment, the EUR/USD is concentrating on a critical trading level of 1.1060, which is probable to hold the EUR/USD bearish below this mark. Below this level, the EUR/USD may gain support at 1.1025 and 1.1000 level today. 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair got limited benefits from the United Kingdoms’ optimism because the pairs await fresh hints from the monthly employment figures whereas taking the buying to 1.2865. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair currently trading at 1.2865.

At the Sino-US trade front, the United States and China trade tension flashing continuously, whereas the United States interference in the Hong Kong protests awaits China’s response fro fresh risk-off. The market’s risk-tone continues slowly, with the United States ten-year treasury yields being around 1.92%, with most Asian stocks flashing mixed signals. 

There will likely be a moderate weakness in Claimant Count estimates amid no change in Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. After the data, the speech from the United States President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve speech will be closely followed to decide the future of the United States and China trade relations and the U.S. Federal Reserve futures moves, respectively.

Daily Support and Resistance   

S3 1.2676

S2 1.2732

S1 1.2754

Pivot Point 1.2789

R1 1.281

R2 1.2845

R3 1.2901

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD appears to have broken the bearish trendline resistance of 1.2825 upon the release of optimistic GDP figures. The MACD and RSI have crossed above 0 and 50, respectively, implying the odds of a bullish bias in the GBP/USD. 

On the lower side, the GBP/USD may find immediate support at 1.2845 level. But the closing of candles above 1.2845 area suggests strong chance of buying trend continuation. 

Consider taking buying positions above 1.2845 and selling below the same level today. 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair found on the bullish track and taking buying near the 109.20 on the day, despite the trade tension between the United States and China, and protest in Hong Kong. The greenback strength could be the reason behind the pair’s bullish trend. Notably, the recovery of U.S. bond trading, greenback sent higher.

However, investors broadly avoided the United States’ expectations regarding the tariff roll back from the European Union automobiles and positive comments from the Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura as well.

Whereas the traders will keep their eyes on trade and Hong Kong worries, as well as the United States President Donald Trump comments from the Economic Club of New York, lunch will also keep under the eyes. The United States President is broadly expected to clarify the much needed United States and China trade relations and the U.S. tariff policy.

Looking forward, Focus will be on Trump’s speech and speeches by the Federal Reserve officials, which is scheduled to speak later on Friday, in the absence of relevant macro data out of the U.S. President is scheduled to speak at the Economic Club of New York around 1700 GMT.

Daily Support and Resistance   

S3 108.48

S2 108.88

S1 109.08

Pivot Point 109.28

R1 109.47

R2 109.68

R3 110.07

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the 4 hour chart, the USD/JPY pair is forming higher’s high and higher’s low pattern, which suggesting bullish bias among traders. The USD/JPY has immediate support at 108.900 and resistance at 109.400. 

The MACD is forming histograms in the bearish zone, but the recent histogram is likely to develop above 0, and it may drive more buying until 109.450 today. 

All the best!

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, November 11 – Major Trade Setups – U.S. China Trade War In Play!

The U.S. dollar was marginally softer against the single currency euro and safe-haven currency Japanese yen, following some traders caution that the agreement could still unravel. The dollar index traded at $1.1020 versus the shared currency euro and 109.23 against the Japanese yen

Whereas the Chinese yuan was marginally lower in the offshore business, but still on the strong opponent of 7-per-dollar at 6.9892 in foreign trade. 

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals.

 


EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair stops its further declining streak after a 5-day losing trend. As of writing, the pair is currently trading above the 1.1000, having hit the 3-weeks low of 1.1017 last Friday. Notably, the EUR/USD pair remains cautious, mainly due to the greenback strength.

As of now, the pair is fluctuating up and down between a 10-pips narrow range during the Monday. The markets await fresh clues regarding the United States and China trade relations for a new direction, as well as the big economic releases from both sides of Atlantic the week ahead for the next direction. The United States docket discusses the releases of the CPI data and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s testimony, whereas the EUR calendar headlines the Eurozone growth figures.

Looking ahead, the pair could keep its range trade steady mainly due to the holiday in the United States, the markets of the United States closed in the wake of Veterans Day. However, the greenback will continue its progress due to fresh trade-related development.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.0953

S2 1.0992

S1 1.1006

Pivot Point 1.1031

R1 1.1045

R2 1.107

R3 1.1108

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD is consolidating with a bearish bias since it broke the bullish trendline support around the 1.1025 area. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair has formed strong bearish channels, which are signaling chances of further selling in the market. 

At the moment, the EUR/USD is focusing on a crucial trading level of 1.1060 level, which is likely to keep the EUR/USD bearish under this. Below this level, the EUR/USD may gain support at 1.1025 and 1.1000 level today. 


GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair hit the 3-week low mainly due to Moodys cut the United Kingdom outlook unfavorable. By the way, the pair stop its further bearish movement because of UK GDP. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair currently trading around 1.2793.

The U.S. Dollar continues its recovery rally due to the global investors try safety and cautious in the wake of intensifying uncertainty surrounding the United States and China trade deal and protests in Honk Kong. Moreover, the reason behind the greenback safe-haven demand could be the geopolitical tension in the Middle East.

On the other hand, Chancellor’s defeat to justify the criticism of the opposition Labour party’s spending plan increased the uncertainties regarding the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Jonson’s lead during the snap elections, which is scheduled to happen in December.

As of data, the UK GDP is expected to increase to +0.3% from -0.2% on QoQ; the YoY figures might decrease to 1.1% from 1.3%. Moreover, Manufacturing Production could shrink -0.2% against -0.7% prior, whereas Industrial Production could increase to -0.1% from -0.6%.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.2676

S2 1.2732

S1 1.2754

Pivot Point 1.2789

R1 1.281

R2 1.2845

R3 1.2901

GBP/USD– Trading Tips

The GBP/USD seems to have violated the sideways channel following the Bank of England policy decision. The MACD and RSI have crossed below 0 and 50, respectively, suggesting the chances of a bearish trend in the GBP/USD. On the downside, the GBP/USD has closed one of the candles below 1.2785 area, which suggests strong chances of a bearish trend continuation. 

Next support prevails around 1.2750, and the violation of this level can extend sell-off until 1.2685. 

 


USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair remained on the bullish track and got the additional boost and reached near the multi-month high mainly due to Japan Machinery Orders declined below the expected figures. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair currently trading at 109.20 on the day.

Japan’s September month Machinery Orders against market forecasts on MoM and YoY basis. Whereas the monthly numbers dropped below +0.9% expected and -2.4% before -2.9%, yearly numbers seem a bit less negative with +5.1% growth figures against 7.9% consensus and -14.5% earlier readouts.

While looking at the lack of the United States traders from markets, mainly due to the Veterans Day holiday, along with the recent data, US investors have no key event and statistics for publishing on the economic calendar.

Notably, the lowest inflation figures from the United States and the Federal Chairs’ testimony may also force the traders to keep away from the big position before the event.

    

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 108.48

S2 108.88

S1 109.08

Pivot Point 109.28

R1 109.47

R2 109.68

R3 110.07

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On the technical side, the USD/JPY currency pair had shown the wrong direction to the buyers of the market during the last 48 hours as you know the pair dropped in 48 hours against the buyer’s expectations. The pair closed above the 200-day M.A. on Monday to fall back below the long-term M.A. in the overnight trade. Consider staying bearish below

109.100 today to target 108.850 and 108.700. 

All the best!