Tag: Daily Breif

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, May 05 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Buckle Up for Seris of U.S. Events! 

On the forex front, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index marked a day-low of 98.64 Friday before paring losses to close flat at 99.08. Research firm Markit will publish final readings of April Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone (33.6 expected), Germany (34.4 expected), France (31.5 expected). The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index for May will be released (-28.0 expected). The Commerce Department will report March factory orders (-9.4% on month expected) and final readings of durable goods orders (-14.4% on month expected).

Economic Events to Watch Today

Economic Calendar by TradingView

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

Today in the early Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair struggling to break a bearish channel around 1.09 after the registered biggest daily drop by 0.67% to 1.0899 level in over a month on Monday due to broad-based U.S. dollar strength.

The GDP of the Eurozone dropped 3.8% in this quarter from the previous 14.4%. The ECB expects a 5% – 12% contraction in Eurozone’s economy this year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecasted the same Eurozone’s economic contraction as 5%, which was in line with the ECB’s projection. The ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said in April that he expected a worse recession to be faced by the European economy than the rest of the world.

At 13:30, the Sentix Investor confidence showed a massive decline in the economic conditions of Europe by -41.8 against the expected -25.9. It showed that investors and traders had lost confidence in the European economy, and it weighed heavily on EUR/USD pair on Monday.

On the other hand, the economic data from the United States came in worse than expected. 

The Factory Orders dropped to a record of 10.3% during the month of March against the forecasted 9.7% decline. However, in contrast to the economic data, the U.S. Dollar Index remained strong during Monday when it gained about 0.4% and it to 99.59 level, which is the highest since Thursday. The key factor will be the NFP data on Friday this week, and investors will be looking forward to it.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.0927
  • R2 1.0921
  • R1 1.0912
  • Pivot Point 1.0906
  • S1 1.0896
  • S2 1.0891
  • S3 1.0881

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Thursday, the EUR/USD price trading sharply bearish falling 1.0880 level after violating the ascending trendline on the 4-hour timeframe. On the 4 hour chart, the EUR/USD has formed a strong bearish engulfing candle, which is suggesting selling bias among traders. Typically such a pattern shows that buyers are exhausted, and sellers may dominate the market. On the lower side, the EUR/USD may find next support around 1.0835 level and violation of which can open further room for selling until 1.07600 level. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair stopped its 2-day bearish rally and took modest bids near the 1.2465 while representing 0.15% gains on the day, having hit the intraday high of 1.2471 mainly due to recovery in the risk sentiment in the financial market. The U.S. dollar is losing its bullish traction, which eventually keeps the currency pair supportive.

Currently, the GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.2468 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2431 – 1.2471. However, the traders are cautious about placing any position due to nervous sentiment ahead of the UK-US trade talks and the final reading of British Services PMI for April.

Moreover, the outlook for GBP looks more pessimistic, given the extent of the loss faced by the coronavirus pandemic by the city. Another reason included in the pessimistic view for GBP outlook included the U.K. government’s attitude towards the extension of the Brexit negotiation period as well as the potential of Britain for a cautious reversal of economy after lockdown.

The drop of GBP/USD pair in the absence of any macroeconomic data and news from Great Britain was caused by the strength of the U.S. dollar across the board. Despite the poor Factory Orders data from the U.S. on Monday, the U.S. Dollar Index rose about 0.4% and remained strong against its rival currencies.

The strength of the U.S. dollar, along with the pessimistic outlook of GBP, dragged down the GBP/USD pair towards 1.240 level on Monday. The next key factor for pair would be NFP data from the U.S. on the coming Friday.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2597
  • R2 1.255
  • R1 1.2497
  • Pivot Point 1.2451
  • S1 1.2398
  • S2 1.2352
  • S3 1.2299

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBPUSD pair is trading sideways around 1.2435, testing a double top pattern around 1.2425. The recent Doji pattern on GBP/USD pair is suggesting chances of bullish correction over 1.2425 support level. This may lead the GBP/USD prices towards 1.2515 level. On the lower side, the violation of 1.2420 support can lead the Sterling prices towards the next target level of 1.2316. Overall, the trading bias of GBP/USD remains bullish, considering the 50 EMA as it’s keeping the Cable bullish above 1.2420 today.  

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY was closed at 106.718 after placing a high of 107.067 and a low of 106.633. Overall the pair USD/JPY moved sideways during Monday and remained flat. The risk-off sentiment in the market emerged on Monday after the U.S. administration started an investigation into the origin of the virus. The U.S. administration has decided to prove that China deliberately withheld the information from the world, which led to the global spread of coronavirus. However, WHO confirmed that it had not received any evidence from U.S. administration about the speculations about the origin of the virus that is Wuhan’s laboratory.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that China should be held responsible for the global coronavirus spread. According to him, China should have informed about the hand-to-hand transmission of the virus earlier as well as it should have stopped the virus from spreading across the globe and in order to punish China for its mishandling of the situation, the U.S. has announced to come up with a retaliatory measure against China.

Trump on Monday also announced to cancel the phase-one deal that was signed between China & the U.S. if China will fail to fulfill its promise of buying $200 worth of U.S. goods. Coronavirus has hit the economies of all countries by lockdown, and it is unclear whether the Chinese economy is able to fulfill its promise or not.

Furthermore, the fact that the U.S. is blaming China over the global pandemic of coronavirus has raised fears of a new trade war between China & the U.S. This rising tension has created the risk-off sentiment in the markets and supporting U.S. dollar. 

The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.4% on Monday and reached a level of 99, which is highest since Thursday. The pair USD/JPY was also supported by the strength of the U.S. dollar on Monday. In the absence of Japanese traders due to Japan’s Bank holiday, the movement of USD/JPY was solely dependent on USD on Monday. The pair showed very slow progress almost remained flat throughout the day.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 107.46
  • R2 107.27
  • R1 107.01
  • Pivot Point 106.82
  • S1 106.56
  • S2 106.37
  • S3 106.11

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The technical side of USD/JPY is mostly unchanged as the pair continues to consolidate around 106.700. As we can see in the 4-hour chart above, the USD/JPY pair is struggling to cross over the downward trendline, which is extending resistance around 106.950. As of now, the USD/JPY pair has also formed a symmetric triangle pattern, which is currently supporting the pair around 106.440. The 50 EMA is also keeping pressure on the pair around the same level of 107.050. Below this level, we may see a selling trend in the USD/JPY pair until the next target levels of 106.44 and 106. 

All the best for today! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, May 21 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Services & Manufacturing PMI! 

On the news front, the EUR, GBP, and USD remain in the highlight due to manufacturing and services. The PMI figures are expected to improve all of the economies, perhaps due to smart lockdown strategy, which may have driven some business activity during the last month.

On the news front, the EUR, GBP, and USD remain in the highlight due to manufacturing and services. The PMI figures are expected to improve all of the economies, perhaps due to smart lockdown strategy, which may have driven some business activity during the last month.

On the news front, the EUR, GBP, and USD remain in the highlight due to manufacturing and services. The PMI figures are expected to improve all of the economies, perhaps due to smart lockdown strategy, which may have driven some business activity during the last month.

 

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD prices were closed at 1.09777 after placing a high of 1.09988 and a low of 1.09185. Overall the movement of EUR/USD remained bullish throughout the day. The EUR/USD pair remained near 1.1000 after the release of FOMC meeting minutes. The surge in the EUR/USD pair suggested that the pair might break its 7-week range and move further to earn more gains.

The FOMC minutes failed to impress the market as there was no surprise element in Powell’s presentation and was ignored by market participants. It was widely expected that the coronavirus outbreak would continue to weigh on the economy, and the economic outlook would remain somewhat pessimistic. Greenback holds onto its losses as there was no room for surprises in the minutes of the meeting. 

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell about 0.25% on the day to post the lowest close since May. Powell said that Fed might need to introduce more stimulus measures if the economic lockdown remains there for a long time. He also added that banks should prepare themselves for the bankruptcies of nonfinancial companies.

On the data front, at 13:00 GMT, the Current Account Balance from the Eurozone showed a balance of 27.4B during March against 37.8B of February. At 14:00 GMT, the Final CPI from Eurozone for the year declined to 0.3% against the expectations of 0.4% and weighed on EUR. The Final Core CPI for the year came in line with the hopes of 0.9%. 

At 19:00 GMT, the Consumer Confidence on the Eurozone economic condition showed a decline to 19 forms the forecasted decline of 23 and supported EUR. The market participants ignored the poor than expected CPI from Eurozone, and EUR got its support after the release of consumer confidence, which showed less decline than expected.

Furthermore, the latest Franco-German proposal for a 500 euros fund to fight coronavirus crisis helped EUR pair to gain traction in the market and remain stronger than other currencies; this ultimately supported the upward trend of EUR/USD pair.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.1097
  • R2 1.1048
  • R1 1.1014

Pivot Point 1.0966

  • S1 1.0932
  • S2 1.0884
  • S3 1.0849

EUR/USD– Trading Tip

The EUR/USD prices are facing strong resistance around 1.0993, which marks the triple top resistance level and can trigger selling in the pair. Conversely, the EUR/USD pair may find support around 1.09512, and below this, the next support is likely to be seen around 1.0910. The bearish bias remains strong today. On the downside, the EUR/USD has odds of bouncing off above 1.0933. 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.22375 after placing a high of 1.22875 and a low of 1.22212. Overall the movement of GBP/USD pair remained bearish throughout the day. The GBP/USD pair remained in a consolidation phase on Wednesday and showed a slight bearish movement amid poor than expected economic data from Great Britain. The CPI, RPI & PPI data showed a decline in the month of April and provided a weak economic outlook and weighed on GBP, which ultimately dragged the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday.

At 11:00 GMT, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year from the United Kingdom fell short of expected 0.9% ad came in as 0.8% and weighed on GBP. The PPI Input in the month of April showed a decline of 5.1% against the expected decline of 4.2% and weighed on Pound. The PPI output of April also declined by 0.7% from the forecasted decline of 0.5% and weighed on GBP.

At 11:02 GMT, the Core CPI for the year from the United Kingdom came in line with the expectations of 1.4%. The RPI for the year from Britain also declined to 1.5% from 1.6% of expectations and weighed on GBP. At 13:30 GMT, the HPI for the year from Great Britain exceeded the expectations of 1.5% and came in as 2.1% and supported Pound.

Apart from economic data, news about considering negative rates as an option by BoE added in the pressure on GBP on Wednesday. According to Governor Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England studied how low U.K. interest rates can be cut even more to cope with the coronavirus crisis and did not exclude the idea of lowering borrowing costs below zero.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • R3 1.2346
  • R2 1.2317
  • R1 1.2279

Pivot Point 1.225

  • S1 1.2211
  • S2 1.2183
  • S3 1.2144

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

After exhibiting sharp bullish trends, the GBP/USD faced resistance around 1.2269 level. As we can see on the 4-hour chart, the pair has closed doji and bearish engulfing candles below 1.2269 zones, which has driven a bearish retracement in the Cable. On the lower side, the Sterling may find support against the U.S. dollar around 1.2170 level. The MACD and 50 EMA are supporting selling bias in the pair. Today, the release of UK PMI figures may help drive further movement in the market. Therefore, the bullish breakout of 1.2270 level can lead the Sterling prices towards 1.2360. While breakout of the support level of 1.2169 may lead the Sterling pair towards the 1.2080 support zone. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY was closed at 107.535 after placing a high of 107.982 and a low of 107.335. Overall the movement of the USD/JPY pair remained bearish throughout the day. After posting gains for the previous two sessions, the USD/JPY pair starting to lose on Wednesday amid broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and renewed safe-haven demand. 

The U.S. dollar remained weak on Wednesday after Federal Reserve failed to provide any surprising element in its April meeting minutes. The Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that risk remained on the downside and held the interest rates on the same level.

Powell said that the second wave of coronavirus would impact on U.S. economy with more intensity, and the lockdown in that time would be stricter and for the longer time period, which would cause massive destruction of U.S. economy.

Powell showed his concerns about the impact of the second wave of coronavirus, which was still onboard due to no improvement in vaccine trials. Powell said that the lower-income households would suffer more due to another wave of the virus if it happened. 

However, adding in the U.S. dollar weakness, the uncertainty about the potential coronavirus vaccine emerged in the market. After the trails of the Moderna vaccine in 6 monkeys, it was reported that all six monkeys out of which 3 received the vaccine were tested positive for COVID-19. The virus was found in the noses on all monkeys who participated in animal trials for that vaccine. This report decreased the risk sentiment in the market and added uncertainty.

Daily Support and Resistance    

  • R3 108.57
  • R2 108.28
  • R1 107.91

Pivot Point 107.62

  • S1 107.25
  • S2 106.96
  • S3 106.59

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY mostly remains mostly bearish following a bullish breakout of the choppy trading range of 107.480 – 107.029 level. For now, the pair is holding at 107.630, having immediate support around 107.500. Above this level, we may see USD/JPY prices heading towards the next resistance level of 108.130. The ascending triangle pattern has already been violated, and it’s expected to kee the USD/JPY supported around 107.500. So let’s consider taking buying trades over 107.500 today. 

All the best for today! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, February 18 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Economic Events Disappoints 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was broadly flat at 99.15 amid thin holiday trading. In the U.S., the New York Federal Reserve will publish February’s Empire Manufacturing Index (5.0 expected). The National Association of Home Builders will deliver January Housing Market Index (75 expected). Let’s take a look at trade plans.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was broadly flat at 99.15 amid thin holiday trading. In the U.S., the New York Federal Reserve will publish February’s Empire Manufacturing Index (5.0 expected). The National Association of Home Builders will deliver January Housing Market Index (75 expected). Let’s take a look at trade plans.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was broadly flat at 99.15 amid thin holiday trading. In the U.S., the New York Federal Reserve will publish February’s Empire Manufacturing Index (5.0 expected). The National Association of Home Builders will deliver January Housing Market Index (75 expected). Let’s take a look at trade plans.

Economic Events to Watch Today 

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD traded mostly around the 1.0830 price zone, a few pips above 1.0826, the multi-year low pasted last Friday. Market participants are struggling to find a catalyst, as the European macroeconomic calendar was empty yesterday due to the U.S. Presidents’ Day holiday. 

The single currency’s vulnerability has prompted by moderate or negative growth in Germany during the last year. Moreover, data from this Monday imply that the market has not yet attained its bottom, as the Bundesbank stated in its monthly statement that there are no indications the currency position is set to improve in the opening quarter of the year, while coronavirus’ risk scores a new course of risk.

The traders eagerly anticipated the German ZEW economic sentiment, which was expected to worsen to 21.5 in February against. 26.7 reported in January. As per the recent release, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany decreased sharply in February, dropping 18.0 points to a distinct reading of 8.7 points. 

The fundamental event is thus lightly beneath its December 2019 mark. The evaluation of the economic situation in Germany has also worsened when we compare it with the previous month.

Moreover, EUR/USD currency pair near-term technical outlook also shows a bearish picture, with a test of the psychological support at 1.0800 on the cards. The traders will have their sights on the coronavirus headlines for taking fresh clues.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.0795
  • S2 1.0817
  • S3 1.0826

Pivot Point 1.0839

  • R1 1.0848
  • R2 1.0861
  • R3 1.0883

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD trades near 1.0825 support level despite weaker than expected German ZEW economic sentiment data. At the moment, the pair appears to have formed neutral candles as the investors still didn’t find any solid reason to trigger bearish breakout at 1.0825 level. Today’s candle is also neutral, and it is pretty much likely to drive upward correction. Today, if the EUR/USD pair manages to drop below 1.0840, we may see EUR/USD prices going towards 1.0760. Let’s look for buying trade today above 1.0840. 

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD is trading sideways on Tuesday, but modest losses near the 1.3000 figure. Earlier today, the Sterling declined during but concerns about whether the current Chancellor of Exchequer will be ready to pass the budget on time. A report from U.K. Prime Minister Johnson’s spokesman confirmed that the U.K. is not asking anything distinct from the E.U. in trade discussions and that they are available to negotiate. 

Besides, the market risk-tone getting worse day-by-day mainly due to the coronavirus fears, which provides support to the greenback as a safe-haven currency. Despite lowering the pace of the death toll and infected peoples in China, the uncertainty and fears still surrounding the market.

On the forecasted views, the Bank of England’s last MPR looks for the unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 3.8% for the next 3-4 months, we look for an increase to 3.9% in December (mkt 3.8%), with the potential for another pop higher in January. As wage growth, we look for the recent pattern of deceleration to continue, with headline wage growth slowing to 3.0% y/y (mkt 3.0%), and private sector regular pay to 3.3% y/y (mkt: 3.3%). 

As the latter measure, the short-term trend growth rate has more than halved from a peak of 5.0% on a 3m/3m annualized basis in July to 2.2% as of November.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S1 1.2912
  • S2 1.2965
  • S3 1.2985

Pivot Point 1.3018

  • R1 1.3038
  • R2 1.3072
  • R3 1.3125

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD pair slipped lower to test the next support level of 1.2960 and has formed a Doji candle around this corner before taking a sharp bullish reversal. The bullish reversal is mostly caused by robust unemployment claims data, which is in support of the Sterling. 

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.3036, below the 1.3065 resistance level. Closings of candles below this level may help secure a sell trade around 1.3065, whereas, a bullish breakout of 1.3065 can lead the Cable towards 

The MACD and RSI are holding in the buying zone, supporting bullish bias for the GBP/USD pair. Let’s look for bullish trades above 1.3018 today. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair flashing red dropped to 109.70 from the 109.90, mainly due to safe-haven Japanese Yen strength in the wake of intensifying coronavirus fears. The USD/JPY is currently trading at 109.75 and consolidates in the range between the 109.66 – 109.90. However, the equity market again turned in red and sending Japanese yen higher.

The futures on the S&P 500 are currently reporting a 30% drop on the day. Meanwhile, stocks in South Korea and Hong Kong are presently dropping more than 1%. Major indices like Japan’s Nikkei and China’s Shanghai Composite are reporting a 1.2% and 0.30% drop, respectively. 

Whereas, the yield on the U.S. ten-year Treasury dropped nearly 3-basis points at 1.559%. The equity market flashing red and the uptick in the anti-risk Japanese yen could be the reason for on-going concerns on the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China. 

The number of new virus cases in region China dropped below 2,000 on Tuesday for the first time since January; experts say it is too quick to say the outbreak has risen. 

On the other hand, China’s growth rate is expected to drop sharply in the 1st-quarter, while the officials seem not in favor of significant monetary stimulus. According to the MNI News, the officials have asked for a careful monetary policy action that will target only affected areas and avoid changing the current overall neutral stance. 

Looking forward, the risk-tone of the equity market may get worse, as tech giant Apple said on Monday that it would not reach its target income for the first quarter, largely because of to weaker iPhone production and softer market in China in the wake of coronavirus.


Daily Support and Resistance  

  • S1 109.6
  • S2 109.74
  • S3 109.81

Pivot Point 109.89

  • R1 109.96
  • R2 110.03
  • R3 110.18

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY pair is trading 110.025 – 109.500 as the demand for safe-haven assets remains in check. At the moment, the USD/JPY pair is holding below 110 resistance as it failed to violate the horizontal resistance level of 110.025. In case, the USD/JPY manages to break above 110.025 level; we may see USD/JPY prices going towards 110.350 at first and then towards 110.850. Alternatively, the USD/JPY can drop to 109.300 in case of failure to break above 110.025. 

All the best for today! 

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Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 21 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Risk-off Sentiment in Play! 

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD edged up to 1.1098, and GBP/USD climbed to 1.3011. The USD/JPY slid to 109.97. This morning, the Bank of Japan, as widely expected, kept its policy rate at -0.10% and a 10-year yield target at 0% unchanged. The central bank raised its 2020 Japan’s GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 0.7% previously. Spot gold marked a day-high of $1,568.6 an ounce before easing to $1,566.0 an ounce.

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD edged up to 1.1098, and GBP/USD climbed to 1.3011. The USD/JPY slid to 109.97. This morning, the Bank of Japan, as widely expected, kept its policy rate at -0.10% and a 10-year yield target at 0% unchanged. The central bank raised its 2020 Japan’s GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 0.7% previously. Spot gold marked a day-high of $1,568.6 an ounce before easing to $1,566.0 an ounce.

In Asian trading hours, EUR/USD edged up to 1.1098, and GBP/USD climbed to 1.3011. The USD/JPY slid to 109.97. This morning, the Bank of Japan, as widely expected, kept its policy rate at -0.10% and a 10-year yield target at 0% unchanged. The central bank raised its 2020 Japan’s GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 0.7% previously. Spot gold marked a day-high of $1,568.6 an ounce before easing to $1,566.0 an ounce.

The ZEW Financial Market Survey is an aggregation of the sentiments of almost 350 economists and analysts on the economic future of Germany is scheduled to release today. Germany, which is considered as the Eurozone’s manufacturing powerhouse, suffered a marked slowdown in 2019, in the wake of the Sino-US trade tensions.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair was flashing green, and it crossed the 50-day Moving Average at 1.1094 ahead of the German ZEW Survey for January. The EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1098 and is consolidating in the range between the 1.1088 – 1.1099.

As we know, the currency pair hit the 3.5 week low of 1.1077 yesterday. As of now, the EUR currency is likely to get a strong buying trend if the German ZEW survey data comes positive. On the flip side, if the data disappoints the expectations and comes negative, then the EUR/USD currency pair could touch the Monday’s low of 1.1077 and may drop further below 100-day Moving Average at 1.1066.

The German ZEW survey for January, which is scheduled to release at 10:00 GMT, is expected to show improvement, with the Economic Sentiment index rising to 15.0 from 10.7 in December while the Current Situation index is seen improving to -13.8 from -19.9.

On the technical side, a close above 1.1173 (January 16 high) is required to cancel the lower moves and confirm a bullish reversal.

On the other hand, the expectations to cut interest rates by the European Central Bank are developed while keeping in mind the weakness of EUR. These expectations are continuously weighing on EUR/USD prices ahead of ECB monetary policy meeting. 

Whereas, U.S. President Trump and his Administration are strongly trying to limit the greenback’s upside through giving warnings and pressurizing the Fed for further cuts.



Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.0996
  • S2 1.1051
  • S1 1.107
  • Pivot Point 1.1106
  • R1 1.1125
  • R2 1.1161
  • R3 1.1216

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

On the 4 hour timeframe, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1096, having formed a bullish engulfing pattern. The bullish engulfing pattern is suggesting the odds of a bullish trend in the EUR/USD. The EUR/USD can show bullish correction until 1.1106 and 1.1112 before showing further selling.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair continues to flash green and extends its previous day’s recovery rally despite the ruling Tory party’s defeat in the parliamentary voting over the Brexit bill. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3017 and is consolidating in the range between the 1.2996 – 1.3021. As of now, market traders are keeping their eyes on the U.K.’s employment data for fresh clues of Bank of England’s next step.

On the front of the main news, the House of Lords rejected 3-votes from the United Kingdom Prime minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit departure agreement Bill. It is worth to mention that this was the 1st parliamentary defeat for the ruling Conservative Party after the general election. Notably, the one amendment among three was telling to providing a physical document to the European Union as evidence to live in the United Kingdom after Brexit. Whereas, the other bills were relating to the powers of ministers to set aside judgments by the E.U. Court of Justice.

As we know the GBP/USD pair extended its recovery rally despite the defeat of the Conservative Party. So, the reason behind the pair’s bullish sentiment could be the trader’s expectation on these laws that these laws will provide help during the United Kingdom and European Union talks.

On the other hand, the American traders will come back on to take their positions after the long weekend and will observe U.S. President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial.

Looking forward, the British employment data got more importance in the wake of recent downbeat economics from the U.K. as well as the BOE Governor’s dovish tone in the latest public figure. On the forecast view, we’re in line with consensus in looking for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.8% in November, because it continues to bounce around near-multi decade lows. We also look for wage growth to ease a tenth lower, with headline wages at 3.1% y/y, and ex-bonus wages at 3.4%. While wage growth had been very strong during the middle of the year, it seems to be decreasing slightly at the end of 2019.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2812
  • S2 1.2928
  • S1 1.2969
  • Pivot Point 1.3044
  • R1 1.3085
  • R2 1.316
  • R3 1.3276

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

The GBP/USD has taken a bullish turn following a release of better than expected U.K. labor market figures. The Cable seems to go and test the downward channel, which is still intact on the 4-hour chart. At the moment, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3040, and it seems to extend bullish bais until 1.3090.

The GBP/USD pair may find support around the 1.3044 area today. Whereas, the RSI and MACD support the bullish bias. Let’s look for selling trades below 1.3080 and bullish trades above 1.3010. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair continued to flash red and extended its losses streak despite the BOJ’s decision to hold its monetary policy and interest rates unchanged. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 109.94 and is consolidating in the range between 109.90 and 110.22.

The buying sentiment came in the safe-haven Japanese yen before the press time and sent the USD/JPY pair to a session low of 109.91 from 110.21, mainly after the losses in the U.S. equity index futures.

On the other hand, the details of the fourth quarter (Q4) economic outlook was also released. The Japanese central bank upwardly revised the GDP growth for fiscal 2019/20 and 2020/21.

Whereas, the futures on the S&P 500 are currently reporting a 0.30% drop on the day. The index futures and the Asian stocks came under pressure reportedly due to the explosion of the coronavirus.

As we know, the currency pair earlier dropped mainly due to the headlines regarding the China virus took market attention. As four people have already died of the same in China, an Australian man has also been recently tested for the human transmitted disease. As a result, Wuhan has created a Wuhan Pneumonia control center to stop further spread of the disease. Meanwhile, he has ordered strong supervision of markets and public transportation stations in order to stop further spread of this virus.

Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year treasury yields drop four basis points to 1.79%, whereas the S&P 500 Futures decline 0.40% to 3,311. Moreover, Japan’s NIKKEI also lost 1.0% to 23,850 by press time.

Looking forward, traders will now keep their eyes on BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s press conference, which is scheduled to happen at 06:00 GMT, for taking fresh direction. After that, the United States trader will come back on their positions after the long weekend and will observe U.S. President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial and fresh headlines.       



Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.73
  • S2 109.94
  • S1 110.04
  • Pivot Point 110.15
  • R1 110.25
  • R2 110.35
  • R3 110.56

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

Technically, the USD/JPY pair is trading with a bullish bias at 110.200 after consolidating in a narrow trading range of 109.800 – 110.150. Recently, the USD/JPY pair has formed Three While Soldiers pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, which typically suggests a bullish trend in the market. The USD/JPY is now supported above 110.100, and we may see further buying above this level until 110.490 today. The USD/JPY may find a resistance level of 110.570. Moreover, the RSI and MACD are still staying in the buying zone. Today, I will be looking for buying trades over 110.1 levels with a target of 110.570. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily F.X. Analysis, January 15 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – Eyes on PPI Figures! 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 97.39 on Tuesday. Media reported that the remaining U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods imports are likely to stay in place until after the American presidential election. The Chinese yuan eased against the greenback, as USD/CNH edged up 0.1% to 6.8895, snapping a five-day decline.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 97.39 on Tuesday. Media reported that the remaining U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods imports are likely to stay in place until after the American presidential election. The Chinese yuan eased against the greenback, as USD/CNH edged up 0.1% to 6.8895, snapping a five-day decline.

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 97.39 on Tuesday. Media reported that the remaining U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods imports are likely to stay in place until after the American presidential election. The Chinese yuan eased against the greenback, as USD/CNH edged up 0.1% to 6.8895, snapping a five-day decline.

The U.S. Labor Department will release December PPI (+1.3% on-year expected). The New York Federal Reserve will publish January Empire Manufacturing Index (3.6 expected). Also, The Federal Reserve will post its economic report, the Beige Book.

Economic Events to Watch Today

 

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair stopped its recovery rally and stuck in the bearish range mainly due to uncertainty surrounding the European Union and United States trade war. As of writing, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.1132 and consolidating in the narrow range between the 1.1125 – 1.1133. As we know, the currency pair hit a high level of 1.1135 during the U.S. trading hours and took a bid at a low near 1.11.

Moving ahead, the European Union’s (E.U.) new trade chief, Phil Hogan, is scheduled to meet the United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and other American officials during Jan. 14-16.

During his visit, Phil Hogan will try to stop the on-going conflict regarding France’s new digital services tax, European support for Boeing’s chief rival, Airbus, and other differences. Whereas some experts said that it might not prove to be peaceful for the Phil Hogan because administration and congress both are frustrated mainly due to European Unions’ unwillingness to negotiate with the United States about agriculture.

Meanwhile, the Houk Lee-Makiyama, director of the European Centre of International Political Economy in Brussels, said that traders would keep their eyes on EU-US matter until any underlying progress is made in resolving US-EU policy differences regarding trade. 

Looking forward, the EUR currency may not get significant gains during this week in the wake of EU-US uncertainty. However, the currency may get some support if the Eurozone Industrial Production data beats past expectations; by the way, the data is scheduled to release at 10:00 GMT.

At the Sino-US front, the United States decided that it will not remove tariffs on Chinese imports until the 2020 presidential elections complete. As a result, the uncertainty grew in the market concerning the signing ceremony of phase one of the trade deal between the U.S. and China, which is scheduled to happen today, while no details of the trade deal have been revealed before the ceremony.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.1062
  • S2 1.1097
  • S1 1.1115
  • Pivot Point 1.1131
  • R1 1.115
  • R2 1.1166
  • R3 1.12

EUR/USD– Trading Tips

The EUR/USD has traded slightly higher as investors seem to price in weaker CPI sentiments ahead of the news release. The support becomes a resistance level of 1.1145 is holding the pair below this level. We may have a bullish or bearish breakout upon the release of U.S. CPI data during the U.S. session. 

A bullish breakout of 1.1145 can open further room for buying until 1.1208. Conversely, the closing of bearish candles below 1.1145 can drive the selling trend until 1.1100 support. The next support is likely to be found around 1.1075 today.

GBP/USD– Daily Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair is flashing green and continuing to trade in bullish sentiment towards 1.3050, mainly due to broad-based U.S. dollar weakness and traders await for the United Kingdom’s CPI report. As of writing, the GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at 1.3028 and is consolidating in the range between the 1.3014 – 1.3030. 

As for today, the GBP currency has recovered to 1.3034 from the 3-week low of 1.2954. However, market traders are cautious ahead of the United States and China phase-one trade deal’s retail release. As well as, the signing ceremony leaves pressure on the greenback because the United States decided that it will not remove tariffs on Chinese imports until the 2020 presidential election completed. 

Moreover, the GBP currency got little love from the United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s fresh comments about refusing Scottish Prime Minister Sturgeon’s request to hold another Scottish independence referendum, because it gives further support to Hard-Brexit concerns. Besides this, the weak UK GDP data and increased the expectations that BOE’s could continue dovish.

On the other hand, the upbeat U.K. annualized inflation figures will likely strengthen the GBP/USD currency pair’s recovery. However, the greenback’s movement is mainly impacting able for the pair because of the United States and China phase-one trade deal signing ceremony, which is scheduled to happen today at 16:30 GMT.

Looking forward to the calendar, the CPI report is the key data to watch today. As well as, traders will now wait to hear from MPC member Saunders, a former hawk turned dovish, to speak in Northern Ireland today at 08:40GMT. Also, the trader will keep their eyes on the Sino-US phase-one details and signing ceremony.


Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 1.2845
  • S2 1.292
  • S1 1.2955
  • Pivot Point 1.2996
  • R1 1.303
  • R2 1.3071
  • R3 1.3147

GBP/USD– Trading Tip

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD continues to trade with bearish bias around 1.2980 after violating the 1.3045 support level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the pair has formed a strong bearish candle which is supporting the bearish trend in GBP/USD. The pair is currently trading in a bearish channel, which is extending resistance around 1.3034 along with support around 1.2906. While the MACD is still staying in the selling zone. I will be looking to take sell trades below 1.3000 today to target 1.2925 and 1.2906. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

The USD/JPY currency pair hit the low of 109.81 from the high of 110.01, mainly due to the risk-off market sentiment in the wake of uncertainty surrounding the Sino-US phase-one trade deal. As of writing, the USD/JPY currency pair is trading at 109.94 and is consolidating in the range between the 109.81 – 109.94.

Wall Street’s rally came to a sudden stop due to the statement that the United States decided that it will not remove tariffs on Chinese imports until the 2020 presidential elections completed. It raised the uncertainty surrounding the signing ceremony of phase one of the trade deal between the U.S. and China, which will happen today, while no details regarding the deal have been revealed before the ceremony.

Consequently, Asia equity markets have ticked lower after the similar negative bias with the ASX 200 (+0.2%), Nikkei 225 (-0.4%), KOSPI (-0.5%) at the time of writing. 

It should be noted that the market traders are cautious and await for any detail release regarding the Sino-US phase-one trade deal ceremony for taking new directions. Furthermore, the meeting is scheduled to happen today at the White House (reportedly 11:30 am N.Y. time but not confirmed).

Looking forward, the BoJ will maintain QQE with yield curve control for as long as needed to achieve a 2% inflation target. As well as, BoJ will continue to expand the monetary base until consumer inflation exceeds 2%. Moreover, it will not hesitate to take an additional rate cut if risks to achieve the price target grew.

Daily Support and Resistance

  • S3 109.17
  • S2 109.51
  • S1 109.73
  • Pivot Point 109.84
  • R1 110.06
  • R2 110.17
  • R3 110.5

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY pair has traded in line with the previous forecast as it continues to trade bullish at 110.017 after breaking above 109.600 triple top resistance level. On the 4-hour timeframe, the candlestick pattern three while soldiers are likely to extend buying trend until the next resistance level of 110.570. Moreover, the RSI and MACD are still staying in the buying zone. Today, I will be looking for buying trades over 109.84 level with a target of 110.570. 

All the best for today! 

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Daily FX Brief, October 02 – Major Trade Setups – Weaker Dollar Sentiment Prevails!

The Greenback retreated 0.2% from a two-year high to 99.15 on Tuesday, as data suggested that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at the quickest pace in a decade. The euro gained

The Greenback retreated 0.2% from a two-year high to 99.15 on Tuesday, as data suggested that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at the quickest pace in a decade. The euro gained

The Greenback retreated 0.2% from a two-year high to 99.15 on Tuesday, as data suggested that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at the quickest pace in a decade. The euro gained 0.3% to $1.0934, while USD/JPY slid 0.3% to 107.75.

The British pound tested a day-low of $1.2207 before bouncing back to close flat on the day at $1.2292. Media reported that European Union leaders have considered offering the U.K. a concession on Brexit that could set an expiration date on the contentious Irish backstop. The Markit U.K. Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.3 in September (vs. 47.0 expected) from 47.4 in August. Whereas, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI figures fell dramatically, triggering a sharp sell-off in the U.S. dollar.

Economic Events to Watch Today

Let’s took at these fundamentals

 

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair consolidates in the narrow range and maintains 0.32% increases. Prominently, the pair may take bids on them today due to the increasing possibilities of the rate cut by the Feral Reserve and the intensified United States slowdown fears.

The United States Insitute of Supply Managements was closely-observed yesterday. The manufacturing index dropped to 47.8 during the month of September. Its the weakest range since the month of June 2009. Besides this, the gauge contracted for the 2nd-consecutive month, confirming the fact that the continuing trade war with the dragon nation is damaging the United States economy lower.

Yesterday’s economic data has propped the U.S. economic slowdown fears, forcing markets to price in the possibility of further rate cuts by Federal Reserve in October. 

Today, the Greenback may trade further lower if the United States ADP employment change which is due to release at 12:15 GMT, release against the estimated number. Consequently, the EUR/USD may hit a high level of 1.10, as suggested by the flag breakout on technical charts. 



Daily Support and Resistance

S3 1.079

S2 1.0854

S1 1.0893

Pivot Point 1.0918

R1 1.0957

R2 1.0982

R3 1.1046

EUR/USD – Trading Tips

On Wednesday, consider staying bearish below 1.0918 level as the EUR/USD has formed a tweezers top pattern on the 4-hour timeframe. 

On the lower side, one should look for a target of 1.0880 and 1.0820. 

USD/JPY – Daily Analysis

USD/JPY was opened on Tuesday at 108.070 and had shown a bearish trend. The U.S. Dollar on Tuesday fell because of drop-in ISM Manufacturing PMI to a 10-year low point.

The highlight release on Tuesday, ISM Manufacturing PMI came in lower than expected increased the fear of the U.S. falling into recession because of Prevailing US-China Trade war’s impact on the domestic economy.

After the weak economic results from the United States on Tuesday, Donald Trump blamed the Federal Reserve for a strong Dollar in his tweet that the Fed has no clue that they are their enemy.

The weak PMI indicated that economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector was reserved in September. The data showed that PMI dropped to a 10-Year low of 47.8 from the previous month’s 49.1.

From Japan Side, at 4:30 GMT, the Unemployment Rate came as 2.2% against 2.3% in favor of Japanese Yen. At 4:50 GMT, Tankan 

Manufacturing Index and Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index came as 5 and 21 against expected 1 and 20 respectively. They were also in favor of the Japanese Yen.

However, the Final Manufacturing PMI from Japan at 5:30 GMT came as 48.9 against 49.3 expectations. Like the U.S. and other countries, Japanese PMI also showed a drop in economic activities in September.

The USD/JPY showed a downward movement of 0.2% on Tuesday and placed a low of 107.625; it is currently moving at 107.761.

Daily Support and Resistance

S3 107.13

S2 107.56

S1 107.82

Pivot Point 108

R1 108.26

R2 108.44

R3 108.87

USD/JPY – Trading Tips

The USD/JPY is likely to trade mostly lower as the pair has violated the bullish channel at 108.200. On the lower side, the support stays at 107.300, which is why I will be looking to take sell positions below 108 level to target 107.400.  

 

GBP/USD – Daily Analysis

 The GBP/USD currency pair hit the bearish track and dropped by 0.2% to 1.2280, ahead of U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson who is ready to announce his last and final Brexit deal/offer to the European Union during this day. Meanwhile, he clearly said that Britain would not talk anymore if the agreement is not engaged and will leave on October 31.

It should be noted that the greenback overall weakness couldn’t send the GBP/USD sellers far away due to new headlines from the U.K. left bearish pressure on the cable pair. By the way, the currency pair is presently trading around 1.2290.

The United Kingdom PM Boris Johnson has a strong attitude about the Brexit final date October 31. Still, at the same time, the PM is hoping for additional effort to extend the British Parliament. 

Apart from this, the intensified fears and anxiety of the economic recession are likely to keep investor’s focus on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams’ speech for further clues about the Fed policy ahead. Whereas the September’s ADP Employment Change is expected 140,000 against 195,000 prior and it’s also one of the highlights today.



Daily Support and Resistance    

S3 1.2008

S2 1.2143

S1 1.2217

Pivot Point 1.2279

R1 1.2352

R2 1.2414

R3 1.2549

GBP/USD – Trading Tips

The GBP/USD pair is finishing the Asian session in a bearish mode, falling over from 1.2330 to 1.2250. The sideways trading range market is keeping the cable in between 1.2335 to 1.2235 zone. 

The MACD and RSI are mixed due to a series of mixed fundamentals. On one side, the GBP/USD is turning bullish over a weaker dollar, and on the other hand, bears are shorting GBP to avoid uncertainties coming from Brexit. 

Consider staying bearish below 1.2330 to target 1.2250. In the case of a bearish breakout, the GBP/USD pair can drop further towards 1.2185.

All the best!