Thank you for visiting the Forex Academy FX Options market combined volume expiries section. Each day, where available, we will bring you notable maturities in FX Options of amounts of $100 million-plus, and where these large combined maturities at specified currency exchange rates often have a magnetic effect on price action, especially in the hours leading to their maturities, which happens daily at 10.00 AM Eastern time. This is because the big institutional players hedge their positions accordingly. Each option expiry should be considered ‘in-play’ with a good chance of a strike if labelled in red, still in play and a possible strike if labelled in orange and ‘out of play’ and an unlikely strike if labelled in blue, with regard to the likelihood of price action meeting the strike price at maturity.
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FX option expiries for May 29 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.
– EUR/USD: EUR amounts
- 1.1050 547m
The EURUSD pair is overbought on the one hour chart and there is a good chance of a pullback due to profit-taking as price begins to fade. Eurozone and US data out later.
– GBP/USD: GBP amounts
- 1.2200 259m
- 1.2225 463m
- 1.2300 475m
- 1.2355 257m
- 1.2375 225m
- 1.2450 349m
Cable has run into an area of resistance at 1.2350 and is currently overbought on our one hour chart. Likely to find support at 1.23. US data up during the US session and an important announcement from Pres. Trump regarding China. This will likely cause market turmoil.
– USD/JPY: USD amounts
- 107.50 361m
- 108.25 526m
- 108.50 520m
USDJPY pair is oversold on our one hour chart. Yesterday we pointed out that price action had previously stalled at the 5 areas we marked. Indeed that happened again yesterday. Expect some upside where the 107.50 maturity looks to be in play.
– AUD/USD: AUD amounts
- 0.6600 1.1bn
- 0.6650 666m
- 0.6700 1.5bn
AUDUSD is in a bull retracement having found support at 0.6600. Currently looking to break out of a wedge formation. The upside looks as if it still has more room on our one hour chart which is overbought. The pair is likely to conform with the US$ so watch out for news and data due out later.
– EUR/GBP: EUR amounts
- 0.8900 455m
The EURGBP pair is well bid with Euro’s getting bought across the board. This option at 0.8900 is out of play.
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As you can see on the charts we have also plotted the expiration levels at the various exchange rate maturities and we have also labelled in red, orange and blue. Therefore, if you see option expiry exchange rates labelled in red these should be considered in-play, because we believe there is a greater chance of the expiry maturing at these levels based on technical analysis at the time of writing. There is still a lesser possibility of a strike if they are in orange and so these are ‘in-play’ too. However, if we have labelled them in blue, they should be considered ‘not in-play’ and therefore price action would be unlikely to reach these levels, which are often referred to as Strikes, at the time of the 10 AM New York cut.
Our technical analysis is based on exchange rates which may be several hours earlier in the day and may not reflect price action at the time of the maturities. Also, we have not factored in economic data releases or keynote speeches by policymakers, or potential market volatility leading up to the cut.
Although we have added some technical analysis we suggest you take the levels and plot them onto your own trading charts and incorporate the information into your own trading methodology in order to use the information to your advantage.
Remember the higher the amount, the larger the gravitational pull towards the exchange rate maturity at 10:00 AM Eastern time.
If you want to learn how forex option expiries affect price action in the spot FX market see our educational article by clicking here: https://bit.ly/2VR2Nji
DISCLAIMER: Please note that this information is for educational purposes. Also, the maturities will look more or less likely to become a strike at 10 AM NY time due to exchange rate fluctuations resulting in a different perspective with regard to technical analysis, and also due to upcoming economic data releases for the associated pairs.
