Forex Market Analysis

Daily Market Update: New Zealand Retail Sales


News Commentary




The Reserve bank of New Zealand has put rate hikes on hold and appears to be in no rush to raise interest rates until next year.

New Zealand Retail Sales fell to 0.1% after expectations of 1.0% and a previous reading of 1.8%.

In Australia, the RBA minutes indicated that it would keep rates stable for a while as inflation and wage growth remained soft. The Wage Price Index went to 0.5%, less than the 0.6% forecast. The Employment Change report showed the economy added 22.5K jobs in April, crossing the 19.8K estimate. However, the Unemployment Rate moved slightly from 5.5% to 5.6%.

This week, investors have the opportunity to watch over the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday to get any notes about the next hike with testing the sentiment.

The Fed should announce no surprises especially after the hawkish comments from several Fed officials last week.



Chart Analysis




On the daily chart, the price had a false break beneath the support zone of 0.75-0.7535. That enhances the harmonic pattern AB=CD. The pair had made a price action (pin bar) in this false break to boost the bullish bias. The pair is moving into the support zone now. Along with divergence in RSI and breaking the lower trend line as shown, the price is ready for the next move up to 0.7635 then 0.7715.



On the daily chart, the price had made its way into the resistance zone of 1.2925-1.3, with an approach from the descending trend line starting from the high of 2015. The price reversed from these levels, breaking beneath the key 1.28 support level and then returning to it. If the daily candle closes under this level again, it will prompt the price to be bearish to the support zone 1.252-1.243.




On the daily chart, the pair had broken the upward trend line from the low of 2009, but then the price had made its way up to retest the trend, with oversold on RSI.

We can also notice that there’s a descending channel that the price is about to break. So, the pair is at a crucial level. If it reversed down from the broken up trend, it will have its way through 0.6815, but if the price continues the bullish movement, it will again reach the resistance zone of 0.697-0.702





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