The eyes will remain on the German Prelim CPI and Spanish CPI figures during the European session on the news front. At the same time, the C.B. Consumer Confidence and series of FOMC member’s speeches are likely to remain in the highlights today. Economists are expecting C.B. Consumer Confidence to perform better than before. Therefore the U.S. dollar can trade with a bullish bias today.
Economic Events to Watch Today
EUR/USD – Daily Analysis
The EUR/USD closed at 1.16696 after placing a high of 1.16798 and a low of 1.16149. Euro to U.S. Dollar exchange rate saw fresh buying on Monday amid the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. dollar’s safe-haven rally was ended last week; however, the EUR/USD currency pair’s recovery was still limited on Monday.
Last week, the EUR/USD pair touched its lowest since 2-months at 1.1613 due to U.S. dollar strength gathered by safe-haven status. The U.S. stimulus package and coronavirus developments, and the coronavirus pandemic helped the U.S. dollar gain strength.
However, the U.S. dollar came under fresh pressure on Monday ahead of the U.S. Presidential debates will begin from Tuesday. The U.S. President Donald Trump and Joe Biden will face each other and debate over various topics, including the coronavirus pandemic, the U.S. economy, the latest race, and the protest issue, and the election integrity.
The local currency faced heavy pressure before the debate and helped the EUR/USD pair to regain its strength in the market. The risk sentiment in the market was also emerging in the market with the developments made in a nasal spray for coronavirus infection. Researchers have revealed that promising results from nasal spray have been seen in ferrets; however, there was still a lot of work needed.
This news raised the EUR/USD prices as it is a riskier asset and tends to gain during times of depressed risk-averse sentiment. Meanwhile, the rising equities also helped the EUR/USD pair to post gains on Monday after the release of encouraging data from China. The rising equities also helped the rising EUR/USD pair on Monday.
However, the EUR/USD pair’s gains were limited after the speech of European Central Bank’s President, Christine Lagarde. She made fresh comments on the coronavirus pandemic threat and said that despite the rebounded economic activity in Eurozone, the recovery remains incomplete, uncertain, and uneven.
She added that consumer spending has resumed, but they are still cautious about their jobs and income prospects, so the spending is behind its margin. Similarly, the business investment has picked up, but the weak demand and pertaining uncertainty have weighed on the investment plans. She also warned that Eurozone deflation would continue to persist in the coming months. She exclaimed that PEPP was very helpful and efficient in handling the coronavirus situation and confirmed that ECB would continue to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments in need. These concerning statements from Lagarde capped further gains in EUR/USD pair on Monday.
Daily Technical Levels
Pivot point: 1.1662
EUR/USD– Trading Tip
The EUR/USD is trading at 1.1684 level, facing immediate resistance at 1.1685 level that marks a triple top pattern for the EUR/USD. The bullish crossover of 1.1685 level can open further room for buying until the 1.1715 area, while the bearish trend continuation below 1.1685 level may lead the EUR/USD price towards 1.1654 and 1.1627 level today.
GBP/USD – Daily Analysis
Today in the Asian trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair continues to flash green and taking bids around above 1.2860 level, mainly due to the Brexit-positive headlines triggered after the E.U. stepped back from warnings to leave the trade and security talks. Meanwhile. They also showed a willingness to prepare a joint legal agreement, which keeps buyers hopeful and extended support to the currency pair. Apart from this, the currency pair got an additional boost after the Bank of England (BoE) policymaker eased the chance of negative interest rates in the short-term, which eventually underpinned the Brtish Pound and contributed to the currency pair gans.
Across the pond, the broad-based U.S. dollar bearish tone ahead of the presidential debate also boosted the GBP/USD currency pair’s strong intraday positive move. The GBP/USD is trading at 1.2847 and consolidating in the range between 1.2832 – 1.2880. Moving on, the currency pair traders seem cautious to place any strong position ahead of crucial departure talks in the E.U.
It is worth recalling that the U.K. and Brussels are ready to resume the 9th-round of Brexit talks on the day. Reports suggest that negotiators will start the process to finalize a deal by the end of this week to hammer out an accord in time for the next E.U. summit in mid-October. However, the hopes of a Brexit deal were further fueled after the E.U. steps back from warnings to leave trade and security talks, shows a willingness to prepare a joint legal agreement. Hence, this news also ignores the U.K. Cabinet Minister Michel Gove’s refusal to remove the Internal Market Bill (IMB) clauses that confront the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement (WAB). This, in turn, boosted the sentiment around the British Pound and extended further support to the currency pair.
Besides, the reason for the currency pair bullish bias could also be associated with the latest reports suggesting that the Bank of England (BoE) policymaker, Dave Ramsden, lessened the possibility of negative interest rates in the short-term, which tend to underpin the local currency. Ramsden declared that he still sees the effective lower bound in the bank rate at 0.10%.
Daily Technical Levels
Pivot point: 1.2740
GBP/USD– Trading Tip
On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias at 1.2875 level, having violated the sideways trading range of 1.2770 to 1.2725 level. Most of the buying trend was triggered amid stronger Sterling and weakness in the U.S. dollar. The Cable has formed an upward channel on the hourly chart that may support the pair at 1.2827 level along with a resistance level of 1.2909 level. Bullish crossover of 1.2900 level can open up further buying room until 1.2998 level today. Let’s consider taking buying trades over 1.2827 level today.
USD/JPY – Daily Analysis
The USD/JPY currency pair stopped its overnight declining streak and picked up some modest bids around above the mid-105.00 level, mainly due to the risk-on market. However, the positive tone around the equity market was being supported by the hopes of the U.S. stimulus package and optimism over the virus vaccine, which tend to undermine the safe-haven Japanese yen currency and contributed to the currency pair gains.
On the contrary, the broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, triggered by the political uncertainty in the run-up to the U.S. Presidential election in November, becomes the key factor that kept the lid on any further gains in the currency pair. Apart from this, the concerns of increasing COVID-19 cases in many countries keep challenging the market trading sentiment, which might cap further gains in the currency pair. Currently, the USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 105.63 and consolidating in the range between 105.34 – 105.64.
As we already mentioned that the market trading sentiment was being supported by optimism over a possible vaccine and treatment for the highly infectious coronavirus. These hopes fueled after the U.S. pharmaceutical giant Johnson and Johnson Inc COVID-19 vaccine experiment has shown a strong immune response to the coronavirus with a single dose in the early trial stages. Apart from this, the market trading sentiment was further bolstered by the Brexit-positive sentiment. These hopes came after the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde repeated that the Governing Council “continues to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments. This, in turn, boosted the market trading tone and undermined the safe-haven assets. Besides, the reason for the upbeat market sentiment could also be associated with the hints of further money flow from the U.S. and Europe. As per the U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the COVID-19 aid package deal is possible.
Looking ahead, the market traders will keep their focus on headlines concerning Brexit, pandemic, and the U.S. Presidential Election, which may offer important clues. It’s worth mentioning that the 1st-round of the U.S. President Election debate is expected to use American President Donald Trump’s tax payments as a fresh obstacle, which may push the U.S. dollar down.
Daily Technical Levels
Pivot point: 105.38
USD/JPY – Trading Tips
On Tuesday, the technical side of the safe-haven pair USD/JPY continues to be steady as it’s consolidating with a bullish bias to trade at 105.460 level, and the series for EMA is now extending at 105.750 level. On the lower side, the support holds at 105.300 level. The MACD also supports the bullish bias amid a stronger U.S. dollar and diminished safe-haven appeal. A bullish crossover of the 105.750 is likely to lead the USD/JPY price towards the next resistance level of 106.250. As we can see, the 50 periods EMA is also in support of buying; therefore, we should look for buying trades in the USD/JPY pair. However, bearish trend continuation and violation of the 105.300 level can open further room for selling until 104.900. Good luck!