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Forex FX Pro

Session 4.1 -Macroeconomics

Macroeconomy is a broad subject, thus in this session we tackle those aspects that have or are expected to have a considerable impact of financial markets, specially on the Forex one. This video will explain you what market equilibrium and the efficient market hypothesis are; we also cover behavioral economics, asymmetric information and some bits on Game Theory

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Forex FX Pro

Session 4.2 -Macroeconomics

We discuss the business cycle, productive sectors and their forces, the impact of central banks and politicial developments, brexit, etc.

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Forex FX Pro

Session 5.1 -Market Forces of Supply and Demand

As complex as financial markets actually are, they still bind to conventional forces known as supply and demand. Although such forces cannot fully account for what moves those price you trade, they are cornerstone to external drivers that cause disruptions, such as speculation, manipulation, greed and fear (sentiment), etc.

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Forex FX Pro

Session 5.2 -Market Forces of Supply and Demand

We go deeper into the interaction of the supply and demand forces, how they determine price under “perfect markets conditions”, resources allocation, etc.

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Forex FX Pro

Session 6.1 -Sector Analysis

Assessing the performance of economic sector of an economy and trading on such research is where fundamental trading really comes to life. Most industrial well-developed economies rely heavily on manufacturing production. Study of MPNI services data provides traders with a good indication to this performance. If we believe an economy to be particularly sensitive to changes in manufacturing sentiment, then these monthly figures provide unique trading opportunities for us to speculate. Learn about this and much more in this session!

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Forex FX Pro

Session 6.2 -Sector Analysis

Using sector analysis to profit in the financial markets is all about defining a current level of exposure. Each and every economy is exposed one way or another to government policy change, scarcity, currency devaluation, etc. The sectors widely represented are airlines, telecoms, chemicals, materials, electronics, computer software, defence, supermarkets, media, oil and gas, personal products and much more. We put into context everything learned so far in this session by analysing a real case study: Switzerland

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Forex FX Pro

Session 7.1 -Capital & Trade Flows

Another delivery on Fundamental Analysis. In this session you will learn everything regarding capital and trade flow from a macroeconomic perspective; which will allow you to digest key economic data such as trade balance, public and private debt, capital imbalances and deficit, GDP, etc., like a professional trader!

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Forex FX Pro

Session 7.2 -Capital & Trade Flows

In the second part of this session we cover the dynamics of international capital flows, i.e., investment, reallocation, etc.; as well as its connection to economic sectors and markets such as commodities!

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Forex FX Pro

Session 8.1 -Economic Data Analysis

Economic data is so important that most traders erroneously regard it as equivalent to fundamentals (analysis). In this session, you will be introduced to its limited impact; as well as to some commonly known types (i.e., price, employement, consumption, growth, business sector).

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Forex FX Pro

Session 8.2 -Economic Data Analysis

We move on to the analysis of other types of economic releases such as manufacturing, industrial & Services output (i.e., PMI), durable goods, confidence, credit, retail sales, etc. We also elaborate further on the limited impact of economic data, and the conditioning variables that play a role in the analysis!

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Forex FX Pro

Session 9.1 -Technical Analysis Features

In the first of six videos exclusively dedicated to technical analysis, we cover the assumptions upon which this methodology is built; and explain you how these assumptions are related to price action.

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Forex FX Pro

Session 9.2 -Technical Analysis Features

Here we elaborate further into the relation between technical analysis and price action through a series of real case studies. This session will show you the degree of predictability of financial markets; while proving you that you can also make a solid trading career!

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Forex FX Pro

Session 10.1 -Into the Hardcore of Technical Analysis

We start by exposing the prospects and limitation of the technical analysis methodology, as well as common tools-related errors that you should avoid. We then move on to the essential factors you must consider when developing your own technical analysis method. You will also learn about objectivized tools to assess a critical feature of price action: momentum!

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Forex FX Pro

Session 10.2 -Into the Hardcore of Technical Analysis

We dedicate the second part of this session to convergences and divergences, price exhaustion, oscillation, and fibonacci; all of which is covered through a rather empirical approach!

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Forex FX Pro

Session 11.1 -Advanced Learning on Technical Analysis

In the final session on our Technical Analysis saga we enter into the advanced territories of confluence, position neglection and validation, reaction to favorable and adverse incoming scenarios, etc. You will also learn how to develop alternative setups within the context of a price cycle.

 

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Forex FX Pro

Session 11.2 -Advanced Learning on Technical Analysis

We finish this series on Technical Analysis by explaining you the 6 tenets of Dow Theory which you definately should incorporate into your own trading method. In addition, this video will provide you with solid foundations on Elliot Wave Theory. At this stage, you can regard yourself as a price action expert, and an efficient chartist!

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Forex FX Pro

Session 12.1 -Advanced Aspects of Fundamental Analysis

We cover important components of fundamental analysis that most traders seem to ignore such as “carry trade”. You will also learn about the fundamental specificities of countries and economic areas behind the current strenght or weakness of the respective currencies; which will give you an panoramic edge when assessing the impact of economic data releases!

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Forex FX Pro

Session 12.2 -Advanced Aspects of Fundamental Analysis

In the second part of this session on Advanced fundamentals we focus on the US Dollar, the Federal Reserve, interest rate differential and expectations; before highlighting some foundational aspects of oil and commodity currency trading. Additionally, you will learn about the dynamic role played by some currencies as risk proxies. At this stage, you should be able to understand econmic data like a real professional trader!

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Forex FX Pro

Session 13.1 -Market Correlations

You are now ready to incorporate one of the most useful tools available into your own trading method: market (price) correlation! In this session we explain what correlation is; its connection to technicals and fundamentals; the different types of correlations that exist; their pros and cons; as well as the relation between the forex and bond markets.

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Forex FX Pro

Session 13.2 -Market Correlations

You will learn about the correlation between the forex and equity markets, and all about “statistical inference”. We finish this session by putting correlation into context as to how it can help you develop profit opportunities!

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Forex FX Pro

Session 14.1 -Risk Management & Analysis

In this session we make a final incursion into the risk management landscape; this time from an advanced viewstand. We approach risk as for how it should be accounted in your own trading methodology; thus we explain you about risk profile, risk premia v. risk aversion, etc.

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Forex FX Pro

Session 14.2 -Risk Management & Analysis

You will learn what practical risk aversion is while considering both your own trading preferences, and market selection. We then move forward to the tools that will help you mitigate risk; before covering the asymmetric realities to risk. At this stage you can regard yourself as a professional risk analyst!

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Forex FX Pro

Session 15.1 -Portfolio Diversification

In this session we approach portfolio diversification from a much broader perspective, well beyond its conventional use as a risk management tool. We also elaborate deeper into the rationale for portfolio selection, including timing in our analysis. In order words, we make a real case for diversification!

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Forex FX Pro

Session 15.2 -Portfolio Diversification

In the second part of this session you will learn about the dynamic relavance of portfolio diversification depending on the time horizon; as well as to how to add this valuable tool into your own trading plan while accounting for your own risk orientation!

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Forex FX Pro

Session 16.1 -Developing a Profitable and Consistent Trading Methodology

In this and the next sessions we lay down the foundations of what you, as any other professional trade must do: build your own trading methodology that reflects a diversity of tools and techniques but that also, and most importantly, account for your own preferences regarding risk, time, capital, targets, experience, emotions, etc. You will also learn about the importance of consistency , discipline, mind balance and efficiency!

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Forex FX Pro

Session 16.2 -Developing a Profitable and Consistent Trading Methodology

You will learn the three pillars you should NEVER forget when developing and executing your own trading methodology: think in pips and not in money; always consider percentages, specially when you risk to book a loss; and scale for the short and long-run!

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Forex FX Pro

Session 17.1 -Quantitative Robustness of Back Testing

In the second delivery on methodology builder we tackle the ongoing myths behind backtesting! In the first part of this session we cover the famous Van K. Tharp Approach, including mathematical expectations and performance forecast; as well as mean and standard deviation of distribution.

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Forex FX Pro

Session 17.2 -Quantitative Robustness of Back Testing

In this video we explain you the method of system evaluation, the “profitability rules”, and the objectives of both position sizing and risk calibration. By the end of this session you will be in a much better position to decide upon the resources you are willing to apply for back testing your trading methodology efficiently!

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Forex FX Pro

Session 18.1 -Review of Some Popular Ways of Trading

In the last session of the Forex Academy´s Professional Trading Course, we review some of the most popular trading styles. In the first part we cover day trading, scalping and swing trading.

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Forex FX Pro

Session 18.2 -Review of Some Popular Ways of Trading

In the last delivery of our PTC, you will learn about trending v ranging trading, position investment, and trading with technical indicators. Congratulations, if you have carefully watched all Forex Academy´s educational saga, from the Trading Course for Beginners to the Professional Trading Course, all you will need is to put everything learned into practice, gain experience and restrain your emotions to become a truly professional trader and market analyst!

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Forex for Beginners

Session 8.2 -Workshop II

After watching the second part of this workshop session, you will be ready for the next big step of your educational journey: our exclusive Technical Analysis Course!

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Forex for Beginners

Session 8.1 -Workshop II

Final workshop of the Trading Course for Beginner series where we put everything into context, and apply everything learned so far on a chart

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Forex for Beginners

Session 7.2 -Becoming an Active Trader

You will learn more about trade management, how to enter the market while keeping your exposure low, and many more advices!

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Forex for Beginners

Session 7.1 -Becoming an Active Trader

In the final theoretical lecture of this foundational course we cover the different types of placeable orders, trading requirements, market executions and lots of tips!

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Forex for Beginners

Session 6.2 -Capital Protection & Risk Management

We elaborate further on risk management, stops and trailing, and percentage trading. We close with a good introduction to a very important aspect of trading: psychology!

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Forex for Beginners

Session 6.1 -Capital Protection & Risk Management

Stacking the odds; trading conviction; risk definition; trading exposure and much more awaits for you!

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Forex for Beginners

Session 5.2 -Foundations of Technical Analysis

In the second part of this session we explain you all on ascending & descending triangles, structural failure, the importance of applying different time frames, etc.

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Forex for Beginners

Session 5.1 -Foundations of Technical Analysis

It is time to start learning about the very popular analytical methodology that does not require a 5 years career on economics, i.e., technical analysis or charting! Here we cover support, resistance & other key levels, price cycles, channels, etc.

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Forex for Beginners

Session 4.2 -Workshop I

By the end of the second part of our first workshop session you will ready to move forward with more advanced learning.

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Forex for Beginners

Session 4.1 -Workshop I

As we do with other workshop sessions, here we recap everything learned so far and put it into context on an empiral basis

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Forex for Beginners

Session 3.2 -Essential Knowledge

In this last part of your first educational step we explain you other foundational aspects of trading such as pips, spread, lot calculation, margin and risk.

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Forex for Beginners

Session 3.1 -Essential Knowledge

In this session we cover essential aspects of the markets such as liquidity, volatility, leverage, trading rational, etc.

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Forex for Beginners

Session 2.2-What is all the fuss about?

We take you deeper into the understanding of the mechanics of price action, the dynamic drivers behind it including momentum, sentiment, liquidity, and rationality. We also introduce you to the types of analytical approaches that exist.

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Forex for Beginners

Session 2.1-What is all the fuss about?

We cover the foundations of the financial industry, explain you how price really works, the main features of the markets, and the basics of how to start building your own trading methodology.

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Forex for Beginners

Session 1.2 -Objectives of Financial Markets

In the second part of this session we take you deeper into the types of market players and their agendas, as well as the existing markets, their pros and cons, etc.

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Forex for Beginners

Session 1.1 -Objectives of Financial Markets

In this very step of your educational journey, we introduce you to the basics of financial markets, i.e., types of markets, market players, structures, sorts of methodologies, foundations of your future approach, etc.

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Forex Educational Library

AUDUSD – Cycle Analysis and Forecast

AUDUSD – Cycle Analysis and Forecast

The AUDUSD pair in daily chart is moving bearish as an A-B-C pattern, from the highest level reached on January 25 (0.81358 level). The segment BC developed a bullish divergence, which alerts us to the exhaustion of the bearish movement, this divergence is not a reversal signal. On the last sequence of the wave C, the price tested two times the 0.73179 level (FE 141.4 level).



In the 4-hour chart, the wave between B and C has fallen in five waves from 0.79163 to 0.73105 on July 02. From this level, the Aussie started an internal bullish move which reached the 0.74838 level, surpassing the previous high 0.74438 in time and shape. Currently, the price is moving in a range which could be the start of a new bullish cycle.



For the coming sessions, we foresee new upsides which could be activated as long as the price bounce from the area between 0.73562 and 0.73265, with a potential profit target area between 0.75382 and 0.75956. The invalidation level of this scenario is 0.73105.



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Forex Educational Library

Forex.Academy 2018-2019 Outlook – CAD Group


Summary


Forex Daily News: In this post, we analyse the Canadian Dollar group against their main currencies. As a summary, the second half of the year and 2019, we foresee a corrective movement in the Canadian currency, which could come supported for a correction in oil prices to, then, give way to a new rally. After this correction, our central vision for the Canadian Dollar is a new appreciation scenario.

Additionally, we observe that it is likely that GBP and EUR would show the best performance against the CAD; on the opposite side, the Japanese currency and the Swiss Franc could have the worst performance against the Canadian Dollar.


USDCAD

The USDCAD is developing a complex corrective structure of a second bullish impulsive wave. The corrective structure has a bearish bias, which could find support in the area between 1.29607 to 1.28371. The key level to watch out is 1.2884, this level should convert on a critical pivot level (HHL).


EURCAD

EURCAD cross in the short-term has a bearish bias, probably could see new lows in 1.50 zone. In the mid-term, the cross moves sideways as a complex corrective. In the long-term, we foresee that the EURCAD could find fresh lows in the area between 1.47822 to 1.45662, from where the cross could start a new rally as a fifth bullish wave. Invalidation level is at 1.4442.


GBPCAD

Probably the GBPCAD cross shows the clearest movement of the CAD Group. The price is moving in a bearish A-B-C sequence, which could find support at 1.6410 level, from where the price could create a new connector and then initiate a rally. The new bullish sequence has a target the area between 1.8533 and 1.9266. Invalidation level is at 1.5837.


CADJPY

The CADJPY cross has been commented in a previous analysis, and we maintain the main idea which consists in to seek only long positions with a long-term profit target in the area between 94.69 and 95.30. Is probably that the cross makes a retrace to the area between 85.45 to 83.73 from where we could find new opportunities to incorporate us into the trend. Invalidation level is located at 82.17.


CADCHF

In the CADCHF cross, the lemma is “Buy the Dips” or “Watch the Breakout.” CADCHF is running sideways in an upper degree consolidation structure. The key level to control is 0.7636, after the breakout of this level, we expect more upsides to the zone between 0.7992 and 0.8245. In case that the price makes a false breakdown to the area between 0.7394 and 0.7289, it could be an attractive opportunity to look for the long side. Invalidation level is at 0.7124.


NZDCAD

In the long-term, NZDCAD is running sideways and making lower highs. The long-term pivot level is at 0.8640. For this cross, we expect only short positions; if the price makes a bullish move, the potential movement is limited to the area between 0.9253 to 0.9461. The long-term target area is between 0.8401 to 0.8098.


AUDCAD

Probably the AUDCAD cross is the less attractive to trade. As we can see in the weekly chart, it is running sideways since the second half of 2013. The price is moving inside a bearish cycle, which could find support in the “long-term pivot level” at 0.8919, from where AUDCAD could start to bounce. The invalidation level for the bearish cycle is at 1.0397.



Forex Daily News: Finally, as a technical note, considering that the AUDCAD is mostly bearish, by correlation, the CAD should perform better than the AUD for the period foreseen.

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Forex Educational Library

The Trading Record

Introduction

Traders want to win. Nothing else matters to them; and they think and believe the most important question is timing the entry. Exits don’t matter at all, because if they time the entry, they could easily get out long before a retracement erases their profit. O so they believe.

That’s the reason there are thousands of books about Technical Analysis, Indicators, Elliott Wave Forecasting, and so on, and just a handful of books on psychology, statistical methods, and trading methodology.

The problem lies within us, not in the market. The truth is not out there. It is in here.

There are a lot of psychological problems that infest most of the traders. One of the most dangerous is the need to be right. They hate to lose, so they let their losses run hoping to cover at a market turn and cut their gains short, afraid to lose that small gain. This behavior, together with improper position sizing is the cause of failure in most of the traders.

The second one is the firm belief in the law of small numbers. This means the majority of unsuccessful traders infer long-term statistical properties based on very short-term data. When his trading system enters in a losing streak, they decide the system doesn’t work, so they look for another system which, again, is rejected when it enters in another losing sequence and so on.

There are two problems with this approach. The first one is that the trading account is constantly consumed because the trader is discarding the system when sits at its worst performance, adding negative bias to his performance every time he or she switches that way. The second one is that the wannabe trader cannot learn from the past nor he can improve it.

This article is a rough approach to the problem of establishing a trading methodology.

1.- Diversification

The first measure a trader should take is:

  1. A portfolio between 3-10 of uncorrelated and risk-adjusted assets; or
  2. A portfolio of 3 to 5 uncorrelated trading systems; or
  3. Both 1 and 2 working together.

What’s the advantage of a diversified portfolio:

The advantage of having a diversified portfolio of assets is that it smooths the equity curve and, and we get a substantial reduction in the total Drawdown. I’ve experienced myself the psychological advantage of having a large portfolio, especially if the volatility is high. Losing 10% on an asset is very hard, but if you have four winners at the same time, then that 10% is just a 2% loss in the overall account, that is compensated with, maybe, 4-6% profits on other securities. That, I can assure you, gave me the strength to follow my system!.

The advantage of three or more trading systems in tandem is twofold. It helps, also improving overall drawdown and smooth the equity curve, because we distribute the risk between the systems. It also helps to raise profits, since every system contributes to profits in good times, filling the hole the underperforming one is doing.

That doesn’t work all the time. There are days when all your assets tank, but overall a diversified portfolio together with a diversified catalog of strategies is a peacemaker for your soul.

2.- Trading Record

As we said, deciding that a Trading System has an edge isn’t a matter of evaluating the last five or ten trades. Even, evaluating the last 30 trades is not conclusive at all. And changing erratically from system to system is worse than random pick, for the reasons already discussed.

No system is perfect. At the same time, the market is dynamic. This week we may have a bull and low volatility market and next one, or next month, we are stuck in a high-volatility choppy market that threatens to deplet our account.

We, as traders need to adapt the system as much as is healthy. But we need to know what to adjust and by how much.

To gather information to make a proper analysis, we need to collect data. As much as possible. Thus, which kind of data do we need?

To answer this, we need to, first look at which kind of information do we really need. As traders, we would like to data about timing our entries, our exits, and our stop-loss levels. As for the entries we’d like to know if we are entering too early or too late. We’d like to know that also for the profit-taking. Finally, we’d like to optimize the distance between entry and stop loss.

To gather data to answer the timing questions and the stop loss optimum distance the data that we need to collect is:

  • Entry type (long or short)
  • Entry Date and time,
  • Entry Price
  • Planned Target price
  • Effective exit price
  • Exit date and time
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • Maximum Favourable Excursion(MFE)

All the above concepts are well known to most investors, except, maybe, the two bottom ones. So, let me focus this article a bit on them, since they are quite significant and useful, but not too well known.

MAE is the maximum adverse price movement against the direction of the trend before resuming a positive movement, excluding stops. I mean, We take stops out of this equation. We register the level at which a market turn to the side of our trade.

MFE is the maximum favourable price movement we get on a trade excluding targets. We register the maximum movement a trade delivers in our favour. We observe, also, that the red, losing trades don’t travel too much to the upside.

 

Having registered all these information, we can get the statistical evidence about how accurate our entry timing is, by analysing the average distance our profitable trades has to move in the red before moving to profitability.

If we pull the trigger too early, we will observe an increase in the magnitude of that mean distance together with a drop in the percent of gainers. If we enter too late, we may experience a very tiny average MAE but we are hurting our average MFE. Therefore, a tiny average MAE together with a lousy average MFE shows we need to reconsider earlier entries.

We can, then, set the invalidation level that defines our stop loss at a statistically significant level instead of at a level that is visible for any smart market participant. We should remember that the market is an adaptive creature. Our actions change it. It’s a typical case of the scientist influencing the results of the experiment by the mere fact of taking measurements.

Let’s have a look at a MAE graph of the same system after setting a proper stop loss:

Now All losing trades are mostly cut at 1.2% loss about the level we set as the optimum in our previous graph (Fig 2).  When this happens, we suffer a slight drop in the percent of gainers, but it should be tiny because most of the trades beyond MAE are losers. In this case, we went from 37.9% winners down to 37.08% but the Reward risk ratio of the system went from results 1.7 to 1.83, and the average trade went from $12.01 to $16.5.

In the same way, we could do an optimization analysis of our targets:

We observed that most of the trades were within a 2% excursion before dropping, so we set that target level. The result overall result was rather tiny. The Reward-to-risk ratio went to 1.84, and the average trade to 16.7

These are a few observations that help us fine-tune our system using the statistical properties of our trades, together with a visual inspection of the latest entries and exits in comparison with the actual price action.

Other statistical data can be extracted from the tracking record to assess the quality of the system and evaluate possible actions to correct its behaviour and assess essential trading parameters. Such as Maximum Drawdown of the system, which is very important to optimize our position size, or the trade statistics over time, which shows of the profitability of the system shrinks, stays stable or grows with time.

This kind of graph can be easily made on a spreadsheet. This case shows 12 years of trading history as I took it from a MACD trading system study as an example.

Of course, we could use the track record to compute derived and valuable information, to estimate the behaviour of the system under several position sizes, and calculate its weekly or monthly results based in the estimation, along with the different drawdown profiles shaped. Then, the trader could decide, based upon his personal tolerance for drawdown, which combination of Returns/drawdown fit his or her style and psychological tastes.

The point is, to get the information we must collect data. And we need information, a lot of it, to avoid falling into the “law of small numbers” fallacy, and also to optimize the system and our risk management.

Note: All images were produced using Multicharts 11 Trading Platform’s backtesting capabilities.

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Forex Educational Library

Risk, Reward, and Profitability

The Nature of Risk and Opportunity

Trading literature is filled with vast amounts of information about market knowledge: fundamentals, Central Banks, events, economic developments and technical analysis. This information is believed necessary to provide the trader with the right information to improve their trading decisions.

On the other hand, the trader believes that success is linked to that knowledge and that a trade is good because the right piece of knowledge has been used, and a bad trade was wrong because the trader made a mistake or didn’t accurately analyse the trading set-up.

The focus in this kind of information leads most traders to think that entries are the most significant aspect of the trading profession, and they use most of their time to get “correct” entries. The other consequence is that novice traders prefer systems with high percent winners over other systems, without more in-depth analysis about other aspects.

The reality is that the market is characterized by its randomness; and that trading, as opposed to gambling, is not a closed game. Trading is open in its entry, length, and exit, which gives room for uncountable ways to define its rules. Therefore, the trader’s final equity is a combination of the probability of a positive outcome – frequency of success- and the outcome’s pay-off, or magnitude.

This latest variable, the reward-to-risk ratio of a system, technically called “the pay-off” but commonly called risk-reward ratio, is only marginally discussed in many trading books, but it deserves a closer in-depth study because it’s critical for the ultimate profitability of any trading system.

To help you see what I mean, Figure 1 shows a game with 10% percent winners that is highly profitable, because it holds a 20:1 risk-reward ratio.

A losing game is also possible to achieve with 90% winners:

So, as we see, just the percentage winners tell us nothing about a trading strategy. We need to specify both parameters to assess the ultimate behaviour of a system.

The equation of profitability

Let’s call Rr the mean risk-reward of a system.  If we call W the average winning trade and L the average losing trade then Rr is computed as follows:

Rr = W/L

If we call minimum P the percent winners needed to achieve profitability, then the equation that defines if a system is profitable in relation to a determined reward-risk ratio Rr is:

P > 1 / (1 +Rr) (1)

Starting from equation (1) we can also get the equation that defines the reward-risk needed to achieve profitability if we define percent winners P:

Rr > (1-P) / P (2)

If we use one of these formulas on a spreadsheet we will get a table like this one:

When we look at this table, we can see that, if the reward is 0.5, a trader would need two out of three winning trades just to break-even, while they would require only one winner every three trades in the case of a 2:1 payoff, and just one winner every four trades if the mean reward is three times its risk.

The lessons learned from analysing these equations are:

Let’s call nxR the opportunity of a trade, where R is the risk and n is the multiplier of R that defines the opportunity. Then we can observe that:

  1. If you spot an nxR opportunity, you could fail, on average, n-1 times and still be profitable.
  2. A higher nxR protects your account against a drop in the percent of gainers
  3. You don’t need to predict the price to make money because you can be profitable with 10% winners or less.
  4. As a corollary to 3, the real money comes from exits, not entries.
  5. The search for higher R-multiples with decent winning chances is the primary goal when designing a trading system.

A high Rr ratio is a kind of protection against a potential decline in the percentage of winning trades. Therefore, we should make sure our strategies acquire this kind of protection. Finally, we must avoid Rr’s under 1.0, since it requires higher than 50% winners, and that’s not easy to attain when we combine the usual entries with stop-loss protection.

One key idea by Dr. Van K. Tharp is the concept of the low-risk idea. As in business, in trading, a low-risk idea is a good opportunity with moderate cost and high reward, with a reasonable probability to succeed. By using this concept, we get rid of one of the main troubles of a trader: the belief that we need to predict the market to be successful.

As we stated in point 3 of lessons learned: we don’t need to predict. You’ll be perfectly well served with 20% winners if your risk reward is high enough. We just need to use our time to find low-risk opportunities with the proper risk-reward.

We can find a low-risk opportunity, just by price location as in figure 3. Here we employ of a triple bottom, inferred by three dojis, as a fair chance of a possible price turn, and we define our entry above the high of the latest doji, to let the market confirm our trade.  Rr is 3.71 from entry to target, so we need just one out of four similar opportunities for our strategy to be profitable.

Finally, we should use Rr as a way to filter out the trades of a system that don’t meet our criteria of what a low-risk trade is.

If, for instance, you’re using a moving average crossover as your trading strategy, by just filtering out the low profitable trades you will stop trading when price enters choppy channels.

Conclusions:

  • Risk-reward is the parameter that allows the assessment of the opportunity value of a trade.
  • The higher the opportunity, the less the frequency of winners we need to be profitable.
  • Therefore, we can assess an opportunity just by its intrinsic value, regardless of other factors.
  • That frees us from seeking accurate entries and set the focus on trade setup and follow-up.
  • We just need to use the familiar market concepts, for instance, support and resistance, to design a robust trading system, by filtering out all trades that don’t comply with the risk-reward figure.
  • Trading becomes the search for low-risk opportunities, instead of trying to forecast the market.

Appendix:

Example of Rr Calculation:

As we observe in Fig 3, the risk is defined by the distance between the entry price and the stop loss level, and the reward is the distance between the projected target level defined by the distance from the Take profit level to the entry price:

Risk = Entry price– Stop loss

Reward = Take profit – Entry price.

Rr = Reward / Risk

In this case,

Entry price  = 1.19355

Stop loss = 1.19259

Take profit = 1.19712

Therefore,

Risk = 1.19355 -1.19259 = 0.00096

Reward = 1.19712 – 1.19355 = 0.00357

Rr = 0.00357 / 0.00096

Rr = 3.7187

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