The roadmap of what the next 36 videos will teach you!
Video Transcription
Hello good evening and welcome to the become a pro quos. Course here out for a start Academy presented you here by your host of course Robert Blackwell. Just before we continue please have a look at the following disclaimer there is risk inherent when trading in these financial markets and of course as always just a few pieces of housekeeping before we begin the lesson. So of course it is an interactive webinar as we go through from webinar 1 the whole way through to webinar sixteen of the become a pro course you make use of the interactive webinar. Feel free to ask questions there with the chat box located on the right hand side of your screen of course. You can ask questions throughout the webinar or if you prefer to keep your questions to the end. I’ll be able to address your questions towards the end as well. The live webinar is being recorded and will be placed into your members area once the webinar has concluded. So if you could just give us a one hour grace period so that we can process the video and upload it for a visual purposes into your member’s Logan area and of course as always we’ll have a CUNY session at the end of the live Webinar so we can deal with any questions as we go through each individual lesson. We’ll take some time just to refresh and do some study just over the course so become a pro course. Really what’s it all about. Let’s go through the course over here and that will be particularly the full context of today’s lesson. It is of course in very high detail this course where we aim to take those fully fledged retail traders and move them on to the next step to actually develop them on to a developing professional trading strategy. So the course will take the approach of today’s lesson. Then we’ll discuss the approach to professional trading while moving on to effective market analysis. So there are different types of traders in the markets and some prefer fundamental trading some prefer technical analysis. Some obviously prefer a hybrid of both. So that is a question for each individual trader to really discover as you get more experience in the markets you may have a preference for one or the other there of course will go on to the understanding of the macro economy and that leads to really developing forces of supply and demand. How these markets move in terms of their price structure in accordance to the buyers and sellers and how prices are dictated then on a more economical scale will move into a sector analysis capital trade flows. We’ll be looking at the economic data to see how that affects markets both in the medium short and long term.
We’ll be then jumping onto technical analysis which will take the construct of quite a few lessons not only discussing components of technical trading but really building our own ideas about technical trade and strategy and finding out what works best for you as a technical trader what more susceptible are you find to be the most I suppose foreseeable strategy strategy that you may like to implement then we’ll discuss currency trading and really the fundamental focus behind forex pairs.
Obviously we know they’re focused on strength and weakness but there is a lot of context to the forex parents and we’ll give you a real competitive edge over forex trading. Well then look at market correlations both in the forex markets and of course deliberating over a different asset classes we’ll discuss risk and risk aversion as well. So this all feeds into the factor of protecting your capital. Knowing when to actually take trades as well as to avoid them. And what sort of risk you should assume. Associate a particular trade idea with and then we’ll look to actually diversify those risks through what’s known as portfolio diversification so you know we have the trading platform there now with with the birth of I suppose financial derivatives such as the CFTC we can actually trade a wide range of asset classes so there there are natural ways to mitigate risks through holding medium terms with a selection of different markets that allow you to spread risk across asset allocation and then we’ll be finishing off the lesson there with less than 16.
Sorry the course with less than 16 developing trading strategy. That’s when we start to combine what we’ve learned whether it’s in the real economical discussions of fundamental analysis or a preferred strategy towards your technical techniques will start to develop our own personal trading strategies towards the end of the course so what is the aim of this course to become a pro. Course of course it’s it’s really to focus on yourself as a trader. You know that at this stage we are taking this seriously as as much more than a trivial pursuit. We’re looking to profit in the markets over the long term. Well the common pro course focuses on the study of the financial markets and the macro environment. OK. So there is you know these markets operate and they move according to what’s happening in the global economy. They don’t simply move because some buyers new buyers come into the market and decide to push the market one way or another or adversely sellers come into the market and simply push the market to the downside. There is a reason for this of course there’s much more reason across asset classes like commodities how they move like they do equity markets how they move in terms of the Association of risk and we need to gain a real understanding how to effectively analyze these markets with consistent results. Our mind with an in-depth understanding of financial markets in the full context of the economy both complex fundamental and technical analysis is discussed with the sole aim of developing a personalized professional trading methodology that is hopefully the aim of each individual student. Honorable common of course here we are looking to move forward to take a step forward to actually aim to develop a consistent trading strategy so that we can apply it so that we can actually apply to all these asset classes to trade profitably over the long run. So the course that is designed to turn what we would call avid retail traders fully insightful retail traders into fully fledged experts in trading the financial markets by building on the early technical principles the theoretical study of the macro economy is then subjected to analysis so as to derive a complete and comprehensive understanding of business operations and how asset prices move as a result. And that is where we focus our expertise in obviously trying to forecast future price movement whether we have a real deep understanding of the market and question that we prefer to trade. We have hopefully developed a trading edge within these markets so this is the course timetable and I can just discuss this in lighthearted detail as we enter the come approved course webinar 1. We have the course over the next month has over the next four weeks with and one lesson at the same time each Monday Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday. This is the first lesson I like to take this opportunity to welcome everyone on board and hopefully will enjoy this experience together throughout the course of the month. So moving on to our course overview we will begin today with a common pro or reduce the context of this course is really to give you a basis of what you’re going to look forward to over the next month to really build out a structure for you so that over the next four weeks you can sit down you know exactly what you’re going to be studying. You know how it’s going to relate both as us as a student of the markets not just only in terms of trading the markets but in terms of the insight into the economy and your relation to price in certain asset classes. So that will start with today’s lesson. Moving forward to the two discussed the four lessons this week we have an approach to professional trading and it is very important to define at this stage now that we have. And I would assume all the retail traders have got some experience under their belt of course before delving into this become a pro advanced lesson. It is very important to assess you know what style of trader you are what your expectations are what your approach is going to be over the long run. So that’s what deal with in terms of defining a professional trading approach. There are certain principles we all follow here. Disciples of the market over the past 15 years you know different practices we like to follow and how we look to actually use the knowledge to disseminate properly disseminate the information that is available. Effective market analysis then will take the main structure of Lesson number three there. We’ll look at the different methods of analysis. The objectives of financial analysts as well you know they have a completely different objective to actually look into simply speculate and make money but we can take a few lessons from their book knowing your market and understanding the context of your market or trading in and then decision making of course. Very important indeed. In terms of underpinning the type of analysts you would like to be and then webinar for will discuss the macro economic environment as quite a heavy lesson in terms of the theory involved. But my hope is obviously that we start to embrace the theory of macro economic activity because it will serve in terms of understanding every single economic data figure that will come out and how it relates to inflation perhaps how that inflation relates to interest rates perhaps how the interest rate will relate to the currency or trading everything is intrinsically linked and that’s where we’ll start to develop on that theory then we’ll of the financial thing with the business cycle on trade and economic developments we’ll look to see how these certain forecasts and news flows enter the markets and how market participants begin to react as a result. So let’s deal with some of these issues straight straight from the get go. Why I suppose the main question I would like to ask just hypothetically totally hypothetically is why do we trade the financial markets so why do we trade the financial markets. It may come across a little obvious to ask such a question but there are more reasons why you know certain market participants look to enter the markets and in actually understanding that that will help us over the long run. One is to search for a better rate of return on capital. That doesn’t mean simply to make 300 euros per day or a fixed amount. It may be because you need to understand it within the context of the investment community. So one example I’ll pick here is in relation to global bank interest rates. So pretty I suppose the financial crisis we had interest rates there. I do remember receiving an interest rate from the capital I had in my bank account. And obviously because of the level of recovery and the changes made on a monetary policy level those have affected us gravely. So all of us who have deposit accounts across Europe effectively aren’t seeing much interest rate in leaving the money in a bank.
So something like financial trading is of course appealing given the I suppose how lucrative the environment is and can be what we need to search for a better return and understand how to trade and beat the market in in relation to return to trade asset classes that were once restricted to Wall Street so that’s a very primitive but albeit a well-deserved example.
So you know more and more of these asset classes are becoming available. Twenty years ago we perhaps could not trade the price of oil. It was restricted for some of those hedge funds or top financial institutions on Wall Street. Now of course each and every one of us have the opportunity to do that. And now we’re seeing more asset classes being added to the table such as crypto currencies. These guys are are allowing us real speculation they’re allowing this opportunity for that return. If we trade properly so that’s to me that’s very exciting and the ability to look for these profit opportunities in the markets. To profit from price swings in financial markets is of course a main objective. And more I suppose I suppose more something that happens each and every day more commonly I suppose where if we look across the equity markets our forex markets are moving all the time and there are large institutions getting in and out of these markets making large sums of money that’s available to us as is assets simply move from high to low. We can get involved in these price swings. Smaller profits as well. So there is many different ways to make money in terms of defining your own opportunity and to invest in value opportunities that deliver long term income. Okay so the investment community again it’s not only relative to Wall Street or high net worth individuals it’s relative to all of the some of us perhaps like to keep our money and property and rent houses. If we have available disposable income others look towards the equity markets to invest in value opportunities. Perhaps a company in your local area that is performing well or perhaps on the global markets if you know if you see value in something like Google or Microsoft or Deutsche Telekom or tear schools any of these companies are fully available to us as investors to look for many different ways to not only profit from their price but to look for value in investing. So it’s very important you know when we go through these lessons we aim to deliver our approach to professional trading that is very much specific to how professionals do it. Now we all have different associations of risk. That’s not to say we should all trade similar but we should all develop. A keen approach to look at to take this seriously to looking to teach to teach ourselves the necessities to stay alive within these markets and to deliver a return on a consistent basis. So you must dedicate time and education to learning and that’s fantastic that you guys are on this course of COGS. That is certainly the case. You must accept winning and losing is part of the job. That’s part of our job as financial traders. There will be one day that will be very very hard to take in because you will potentially lose a lot of money but you need to control that. That is part of the game. There will be other days where you will of course outperform. And again you just take that with a pinch of salt. You must give yourself the time and focus to develop discipline and that is certainly what it needs. Discipline is not something you can learn overnight as you start to deliver consistent returns and very easily take more and more losers you’ll see that your discipline is simply a factor of your trading you must make consistency a top priority as your personal objective aims to create a long and fruitful trading career again. So it’s not necessarily our objective to enter the markets for one year and make a lot of money and leave high and dry. That would be great of course but that’s much more difficult to do. What we can do is take it seriously and focus on a professional approach hopefully look to trade the markets for 5 10 15 years. Developing personal income each and every month because it’s certainly available to us so effective market analysis will of course be constructed of less than three. And really we we define it as financial traders in three schools of thought. So we have fundamental analysis. It is the examination of the underlying forces that affect the well-being of an economy industry group or company. As with most. Excuse me. As with most analysis the goal is to derive a forecast and profit from future future price movements. That’s certainly the case for fundamental analysis it is much more involved there’s much more research in it but it can be very fruitful indeed. Technical analysis is simply a methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data primarily price and volume. So that is something that most of us are very very interested in because well it’s very difficult to develop fundamental research or a fundamental strong fundamental knowledge on every single market that you want to trade. It will take a lot of time perhaps some of that information isn’t available to you. Perhaps you don’t know how to properly disseminate that information so technical analysis if we believe all information available is embodied in the price structures of these common stocks and movements then we can simply look to trade and speculate and teach yourself the skills available to do so. And then finally sentimental analysis it focuses on identifying and measuring the overall psychological state of all participants in the market. It attempts to quantify exactly what percentage of market participants are bullish or bearish which basically buyers and sellers interact in the market shifting the market one way or another so we can look to choose you know as a personal preference. You know it doesn’t conflict with our own approach in terms of a professional approach and how serious we take it. However the skills necessary. It’s a plethora of these three here where some traders are essentially better at fundamental analysis. I like to use some technicalities or vice versa and include some sentimental analysis as well so that’s that’s a pursuit in itself for you over the next month. To answer that question to which you prefer and how you’d like to trade so it is at times difficult for traders to decide what side of trading they are better suited to. That’s absolutely true. Absolutely the case. The truth is that most professional traders expand their knowledge so that they are able to develop a hybrid approach to developing trading strategy one that involves all three fundamental technical unsentimental analysis and that is certainly the case even on less than one year to become a pro course. Many of our students may believe well I think I have a knack for technical analysis and I have a preference to actually pursue that. But as you go through this course you will understand more about the economy and how potential markets move in relation to economic moves within the environment and that knowledge or that increase in knowledge will expand your capabilities on the fundamental side whether you you believe it will or not of course. So to take everything on board it will always serve to heighten your your knowledge and expertise within these markets so then the next focused lesson will of course be delving into understanding the macro economy. This is really the larger economy. So we define the economy as if it’s a domestic economy what is happening within our economy as macro economy. If the overall economy perhaps of one nation or of the eurozone we will refer to it as the macro economy. What’s happening in the overall economic environment. So here we have the business cycle again as an example we have GDP gross domestic product there on the left. We can see the business cycles many different points of reflection where either obviously factors into how high risk is associated with all of these financial assets and markets that we trade and we need to understand exactly where we are in terms of sentiment and positioning with the business cycle in terms of how those markets refer to the current status quo. Okay. So that’s very important of course now we’re in a very Polish strong period so we see risk on is the theme that means you have a higher probability of off trading and riskier assets over the long run. Of course we’re trying to also look for volume between two. It’s very important to note and we’ll discuss it in a lot of detail throughout the macro economic lessons. So key questions that we’d like to focus on. Again I’m trying to get even from less than one guys. The focus is to think like a trader. So I want you guys to think as we go through all of these lessons like a financial trader already you’re not only looking to make some pips in a particular market you’re looking to understand why these markets are moving. Why the macro economy is reflecting perhaps an equity market within your local country or your local nation. So start to ask these questions for yourself. What is the current state of the global economy. OK so let’s say we’re about to take a long term position in the Euro stocks 50 there OK which is an equity index consisting of many different equities over over Europe. They’re mostly in Germany France Switzerland. We have some in the UK as well and many other firms in some countries. So we’re going to take a long trade perhaps with one of these equity indices the Euro stocks. What is the current state of the global economy. What is the current state of the local economy of that particular firm. What are the current uncertainties overshadowing local asset classes. So what are the risks involved locally of trading this asset and what is the best trading opportunity in this environment. So have I chosen what I think. After doing some macroeconomic analysis is this market that I prefer to trade now this perhaps I’m looking to buy some stock of a company there. Is it the best trade. Is it the best trade do in my analysis if that’s not the case I may see something much cheaper if it’s if it’s an equity investment or. An effort from it. Excuse me if I’m a technical trader it may be a better inflection point or provide a better technical setup. So a very important question to ask. So let’s think about how some of these news flows or economic data will look to effect and the macroeconomic level of a country here. So here we have Germany to choose one example the German zoo which is an economic figure of conference there. We have German industrial production. So what does that mean when it becomes I suppose supportive of some of the largest firms that produce and contribute to to German GDP. Inflation within Germany. What is the current inflation and what is the central bank going to do in terms of the expectations on raising inflation and also then what if the German CBA CPI figure is released to the market and it actually comes out much much less than expected. How does the market react to that. How do the forex markets react to the bond markets particularly in Germany where the European leader with within the bond or debt markets how do these markets react. ECB press conference obviously we have Mario Draghi there as the president how does his rhetoric move asset classes and of course they do. Every time he speaks there is a large amount of increased volatility across European asset classes. German unemployment of course a very intrinsic one in German politics. How does shifts in German politics affect and potential assets that you like to trade across Germany or perhaps the German equity indices as well. So the truth is that there is no right or wrong answer. But again I want everyone to sort of really reel in and start to think like a trader on and no one understand that evidently all of these things are intrinsically linked. When we look to trade the markets. So here we have yet yet again another example of overflow potential flow of income or our money. Different decisions through our different asset classes through different market participants. Let’s follow some some examples here to understanding the macro economy. Well we have a central bank of course it creates money so it’s increasing the money supply. It’s to buy bonds from finance institutions so perhaps it’s actually it’s actually increasing the money supply through purchasing financial bonds they’re from institutions so effectively swapping power that with good debt. So that’s creating I suppose healthier finance institutions within our systemic system. And then obviously this will reduce interest rates as these bonds are you know as private as there’s more demand for the bonds so there’s more of a demand for a higher rate of return which actually will reprice into the market reducing interest rates leaving businesses and people then borrow more because there is a shift in interest rates they boost spending and create jobs and as a result there is a hope then that there’s a sort of growth in the economy. So we’re seeing the effect of quantitative easing here within this economy.
It’s all certainly cyclical so you can see how these market participants are looking to really get involved in following this movement of one I suppose economic microeconomic shift within the domestic economy.