The EURUSD pair advances in an unfinished impulsive formation that raised the common currency from 1.06359 till 1.20114. The price action started to develop a corrective sequence, still progressing, corresponding to its fourth wave of Minor degree. Explore with us what should be the target of the fifth impulsive wave.
Market Sentiment
The long-term market sentiment of the EURUSD pair based on the 52-week high and low range unveils the price moving in the extreme bullish zone.
The following daily chart illustrates the common currency moving above the 60-day linear weighted moving average, confirming the extreme short-term upward bias prevalent in the current price action.
Likewise, the consolidation formation bounded between 1.16121 and 1.18566, appearing after the rally from mid-May to early September, leads us to anticipate the take-profit activity of big market participants. In other words, the price could begin a new movement toward the 52-week high zone, creating a euphoric sentiment for the euro before developing a corrective move.
Elliott Wave Overview
EURUSD pair’s long-term outlook under the Elliott Wave perspective reveals the upward advancement of the common currency in an unfinished impulsive wave, which currently progresses in its fourth wave of Minor degree, suggesting further highs.
The following daily chart exposes de uptrend developed by the EURUSD since the March 23rd low located at 1.06359, where the price found fresh buyers, who remain in control of the long-term uptrend.
The Elliott Wave point of view illustrates the EURUSD pair developed and completed a third extended wave of Minor degree labeled in green when the price reached 1.20114 on past September 01st. Once the common currency found resistance at 1.20114, the EURUSD started to develop its fourth wave of Minor degree identified in green.
Considering that the second corrective wave was simple in terms of price and time, by the alternation principle of the Elliott Wave theory, the fourth wave should be a complex correction. In this regard, the complexity could be in terms of price, time, or both.
If the correction were complex in price, the formation could be a flat pattern like an irregular flat. If the complexity were in terms of time, the corrective pattern could be a triangle formation. Finally, if the correction develops a combination of price and time complexity, the structural series could be a double three or a triple three pattern.
Short-term Elliott Wave Outlook
Once the fourth wave ends, the common currency should advance in its fifth wave, shown in green in the following chart. Considering that the third wave is the extended wave, two potential scenarios exist for the fifth wave target.
The first scenario considers the advance slightly higher than the top of the third wave, which could reach the area between 1.2065 and 1.2257.
The second scenario may arise if the fifth wave’s bullish pressure fails and finds resistance in the supply zone, which is located between 1.19361 and 1.20114.
To conclude, the invalidation level corresponding to this bullish scenario is a close below 1.11639.
