Categories
Forex Education

Setting up a Trading Strategy using Candlesticks

Introduction

Candlestick Analysis is likely the most popular analysis method to read the market and allow the market analyst to understand the traders’ sentiment over time.

In this educational article, we will review some candlestick patterns, which could be used as technical formations to spot market turn, recognize and enter early in the new trend.

Candlesticks Basics

Candlesticks use the same information that OHLC bars; however, candlestick charts show the market information differently. The components of candlesticks are the open price, high, low, and close in a specific range of time, such as weekly, daily, and intraday. The following figure represents the structure of a candlestick in a bullish and bearish context.

In the previous figure, we observe that the range between the open and close prices of the candlestick forms the body of the candle. If the close of the session is higher than the open, then the candle is bullish (white). If the close price level is lower than the open price level, then the candle will be bearish (Black).

The range of the prices that moves above and below the body of the candle is called the shadow or wick, whose length can be from very short to quite long. The span between the high and low of the candle reveals how volatile it has been the trading session or intraday period.

Candlesticks Formations to Trade

Candlesticks formations provide a variety of information concerning the market movements. For instance, it can reveal when the price is in a slowdown, in trend, or soon to reverse in the next trading sessions. The understanding of these formations is essential to chart analysis because candlesticks charts can be analyzed without lag.

Hammer and Hanging Man

A Hammer is a candlestick pattern that shows a small body and a long shadow, with its close is near the high of the day. When the Hammer is located at the end of a bearish trend, the Hammer is considered a bullish reversal signal.

The Hanging Man is similar to the Hammer, but it appears at the end of an uptrend; this pattern reveals the possibility of a reversion of the uptrend.

Both Hammer and Hanging Man should have a large shadow compared to its body. The shadow extension will be indicative of the volatility of a trading session where the price plummeted and then recovered to close the session at the top of the trading range.

Belt-Hold Pattern

The Bullish Belt-Hold pattern is a formation in which the opening price is at the low of the session. Prices start to rally and close near the top of the session’s range with higher momentum. The opposite occurs on the bearish pattern, where the price opens at the high of the range and closes near the low.

If the next open is higher than the close of the bearish belt-hold candle, then it is likely that the price will continue moving higher. If the price opens below the bullish belt-hold close, then it is likely the market will continue moving bearish.

Engulfing Pattern

The engulfing pattern is a formation that requires a pair of candlesticks to complete the formation. The bullish engulfing pattern is a formation that suggests the reversion of the downtrend and surges at the end of a bearish trend. The opposite case occurs when the market moves in an uptrend. An engulfing pattern is one of the most powerful of the candlestick reversal signals.

The formation is completed once that large bullish candlestick body completely covers the body of a smaller candle of the previous trading session. The larger is the timeframe where the engulfing pattern appears, the more significative will be the reversal. The following figure represents the bullish and bearish engulfing pattern.

Harami Pattern & Harami Cross

The harami pattern, also known as an inside bar, requires two candlesticks to complete the formation—however, the harami pattern, or inside bar, the weakest of the reversal patterns.

The harami pattern is a formation with a small body that fits entirely into a large body candle. This pattern is indicative of the reversion of the trend, and its importance grows if the formation appears after a prolonged trend. The harami cross is a particular case of the harami pattern; the pattern consists of almost identical opening and closing levels.

The Doji Pattern

The doji pattern appears when the trend moves in an exhaustion stage. This pattern is characterized by a vanishing body, where the session’s open and close prices are almost identical.

The importance of a doji grows after an extended uptrend or downtrend. If following a doji, it appears an engulfing pattern, the possibility of a potential reversal move will increase.

Piercing Pattern and Dark-Cloud Cover

The piercing formation has similarities with the bullish engulfing pattern and is characterized by its appearance at the bottom of a downtrend. The main difference from the bullish engulfing pattern is that the bullish candle on the Piercing Pattern does not fully cover the previous candlestick. Instead, it closes above the 50% level.

The dark cloud cover is a bearish reversal formation. In this case, the bearish candle is a big body candlestick that covers at least 50% of the previous trading session’s candle. The strength of the reversal signal will be stronger, as more extension is covered.

Morning Star and Evening Star

The star candlestick pattern is a formation where a price gap separates a small body candle from the body of the previous candlestick. The star could be a doji or a narrow range candle. This formation warns the market analyst of an imminent reversion of the trend.

A Morning Star pattern is a bullish reversal formation that appears in the bottom of a downtrend and requires three candlesticks. The first candle is a powerful bearish candle with a body of wide range. The second candle corresponds to the star, and it is a candlestick of a narrow range, separated by a gap with the previous candle. The third candle is a bullish candle with upward momentum. The body of this candle should surpass 50% of the first candlestick.

The Evening Star pattern is a bearish reversal formation that appears at the end of a bullish trend. similarly to a morning star pattern, the range of the third candle will be indicative of the strength of the reversal movement

Conclusions

In this educational article, we reviewed seven candlesticks patterns that show trend reversals in a specific range of time. One of the pros of these candlestick patterns is that it is not a lagging indicator, and its analysis could provide the information the market sentiment without delay.

However, although the candlestick analysis could provide an entry setup, they can not provide a target level by itself. This type of study should be accompanied by complementary techniques to improve the odds of success and determine potential profit targets.

In the following article, we will review the use of chart patterns to determine the trend.

Suggested Readings

  • Fischer, R., Fischer J.; Candlesticks, Fibonacci, and Chart Patterns Trading Tools; John Wiley & Sons; 1st Edition (2003).
Categories
Forex Signals

EURAUD Advances in a Potential Inverted H&S Pattern

Description

The EURAUD cross in its hourly timeframe illustrates an advance in a corrective structure that looks like a potential inverted H&S pattern.

The price action reveals sideways bias, bounded in the lower side by the June 03rd low at 1.6033, in where the cross found buyers at 1.6033. On the upper side, the price topped at 1.6586 on June 12th, from where the price started to develop a downward sequence. 

From the EURAUD hourly chart, we observe that the corrective move retraced to the zone of 1.6221, which coincides with the previous swing of June 10th. This movement warns us about a potential institutional activity of buy-side incorporations.

On the other hand, the price action reveals the advance in a formation that looks like an inverted head & shoulder pattern, which suggests the likely scenario of an upward movement. This pattern will activate if the cross jumps over level 1.6401, which coincides with the neckline. The technical target of this chartist pattern locates at 1.6616. Our invalidation level is placed below the low of the right shoulder at 1.6299. 

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Trading Plan Summary

Categories
Forex Signals

AUDUSD Develops a Descending Channel

Description

The AUDUSD pair in its 2-hour chart exposes a corrective descending structure, which began once the Aussie topped at 0.7064 on June 18th. 

The Aussie Dollar started a rally on May 15th when the price found fresh buyers at 0.6402. The accelerated movement experienced by the pair looks like an extended wave. Once the price action topped at 0.7064, the AUDUSD pair started to move mostly downward, breaking below the accelerated trendline and fell until the mid-term trendline. After this decline, the recovery realized a lower high, which carries us to project a descending trendline. 

On the other hand, the RSI oscillator reflects a drop until level 22.18, corresponding to the breakdown that the Aussie developed once topped at 0.7064. The RSI reading leads us to observe that the price should be entering on a bearish cycle.

For the following trading sessions, we expect further declines, which could visit the area of 0.6682, corresponding to the next swing high developed by the AUDUSD pair. The invalidation level of our bearish scenario locates at 0.6927.

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Trading Plan Summary

Categories
Forex Daily Topic Forex Trading Strategies

Principles of Trading Strategies

Introduction

A trading strategy is a systematic methodology of investment that can be applied in any financial market, for example, bonds, stocks, futures, commodities, forex, and so on. In this context, a profitable trading strategy is more than a system that provides an entry signal on the long or short side with a stop-loss and a profit target.

Big traders make money to take their investment decisions systematically, reducing their risk with the diversification of the assets that make up their portfolio.

In this educational article, we’ll present a set of elements that can be part of a trading strategy.

The Elements of a Trading Strategy

A systematic trading strategy should be tested and validated with historical data, and its execution in the real-market should be done with the same accuracy as when using paper money.

The strategy should provide a setups series that allow us to recognize where to locate the market entry and in which direction. Finally, the trading strategy should allow market positioning in the long and short sides. This positioning should require identifiable stop-loss and profit target levels.

In particular, in this article, we’ll present the use of Fibonacci, candlesticks formations, chart patterns, trend lines, and trend channels.

Fibonacci Analysis

Likely, Fibonacci retracements and extensions are the most used tools in the world of retail and institutional trading. The Fibonacci series has its origin from the mathematical problem of the rabbits’ population solved by Leonardo da Pisa “Fibonacci” in his work “Liber Abaci” published in 1202.

The sequence discovered by Fibonacci not only can be applied in the rabbits’ population growth, but this series also solves other growth problems in nature and also on the financial markets.

Fibonacci and Corrections

One application of the Fibonacci tools in financial markets is the measurement of a retracement size that an impulsive wave may experience in its corrective move.

The rationale of this strategy considers that when the initial impulsive movement ends and following the subsequent corrective move, the market will develop a second impulsive move in the same direction of the first move.

The selection of the asset is linked to the timeframe under analysis; for example, the structure developed in a weekly chart will require more time than an hourly chart formation.

The following figure illustrates two potential entry setups using the Fibonacci retracement tool. The first scenario considers a retracement of 38.2% of the first move. The second scenario will occur when the price experiences a retracement of 61.8% from the top of the first impulse. 

The stop-loss will be placed at the origin of the previous impulsive movement.

Setting Targets with Fibonacci Extensions

Prices extensions are movements that resume the progress of a previous trend. Generally, the extensions occur in the third wave, and the correction corresponding to the second wave does not move beyond the origin of the first impulsive movement. The next figure exposes the extension of a regular three-wave pattern. Consider that the wave identification does not correspond to an Elliott wave labeling.

The analytic process follows the next steps:

  1. After an impulsive move, the price action must develop a minimum retracement of the first move.
  2. The size of the swing must be multiplied by the Fibonacci ratio of 1.618.
  3. The resulting level will correspond to the price target of the third wave.

The analysis in a five-wave pattern is similar to the three-wave case. The difference in this pattern is the seek the length of an additional impulsive move.

The five-wave pattern includes three impulsive movements and two corrective moves. The following figure illustrates the Fibonacci measures of this formation.

The Phi-Ellipse

The Phi-Ellipse is a countertrend trading method based on the oscillation of price with time. Its goal is to reduce the noise of falses breakouts and increase the stability of the investment strategy. The drawing process of a Phi-Ellipse requires to identify three points, as shown in the next figure.

After identifying the points A, B, and C, in a regular three-wave pattern, there should place the Phi-Ellipse in these points. We should expect a new impulsive move as the first impulse. There are three ways to trade against the trend at the end of the Phi-Ellipse, which are:

  1. Enter in a position when the price breaks outside the perimeter of the Phi-Ellipse.
  2. Entry based on a chart pattern at the end of the Phi-Ellipse.
  3. Place an order when the price action when the price moves outside a parallel line to the median line of the Phi-Ellipse.
  4. A buy position is recommended at the end of the Phi-Ellipse when it has a descending slope, and a sell position is recommended when the Phi-Ellipse has an upward slope.

Conclusions

In this educational article, we discussed the elements that should contain a trading strategy. The application of a systematic trading strategy or a combination with a strategy across time in a diversified portfolio could help the investor reduce the risk in its investment decisions.

On the other hand, the strategy’s analysis methodology should provide entry-setups for both long and short-side positions. In this context, in this article, we presented the use of Fibonacci retracements and extensions to offer entry setups inlcuding its stop loss and profit target level. Finally, we introduced the Phi-Ellipse method, which allows the investor to reduce the risk of falses breakouts in its investment portfolio.

In the next educational article, we will review the use of candlesticks formations, chart patterns, trend lines, and trend channels.

Suggested Readings

– Fischer, R., Fischer J.; Candlesticks, Fibonacci, and Chart Patterns Trading Tools; John Wiley & Sons; 1st Edition (2003).

Categories
Forex Signals

GBPAUD Moves in an Expanding Triangle

Description

The GBPAUD price in its hourly chart exposes the progress in an ascending expanding triangle, which began on the low of June 05th at 1.8060 when the cross found fresh buyers.

The overlapped upward sequence boosted until 1.8452 reached on June 12th when the cross found resistance at the zone of previous June 02nd high reacting mostly bearish starting a corrective movement in a three-wave sequence.

The end of the three-wave corrective sequence found support on June 16th at 1.8148 from where the price action revealed the bullish incorporation of institutional participants, which on Wednesday trading session dragged the price to the zone of 1.8176 in where the price started to show bullish incorporations.

Considering the Elliott wave theory’s alternation principle, we expect a rally that should boost the price to fresh higher highs in the following trading sessions.

A buy-side position will activate at 1.8200 as psychological support; our short-term target locates at 1.8380, this level coincides with the previous high of June 16th, representing an intraday resistance. If the bullish momentum surpasses this resistance, we will expect further raises. The invalidation level of the scenario locates at 1.8110.

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Trading Plan Summary

Categories
Forex Signals

USDCHF Intraday Upward Breakout

Description

The USDCHF pair in its 2-hour chart shows an intraday upward breakout, which leads us to expect a short-term rally.

The price action unveils a bullish reaction from the June 11th low at 0.9376, from where the price fueled raising until 0.9553 in three internal moves. 

The breakout observed in the Tuesday 16th trading session, and confirmed by the RSI oscillator carries us to expect a new upward leg as a wave (c) developed in five internal segments. This potential ascending move could boost to USDCHF until 0.9603 in where the pair could complete its third leg.

The invalidation level of this upward scenario locates at 0.9437.

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Trading Plan Summary

Categories
Forex Signals

EURNZD Moves in a Short-Term Ascending Channel

Description

The EURNZD cross in its hourly chart exposes a short-term ascending channel that looks following the price action since the June 09th low at 1.71896, from where the cross started to develop a higher high and lower high sequence.

The June 11th high at 1.76530, which surpassed the previous swing high at 1.75890 from June 04th, the short-term picture changed the bias from bearish to bullish.

The RSI oscillator, which supports the change in our market sentiment, found support in the zone of level 40, which lead us to weight the bullish bias for the potential next move.

A bullish position will activate if the price soars above the last intraday swing at 1.7520, from where we expect an upside until the round level at 1.7605. However, we don’t foresee a rally over the upper long-term descending trendline in brown.

Our bullish scenario will be invalid if the price drops below 1.7475

Chart

Trading Plan Summary

Categories
Forex Daily Topic Forex Education Forex Psychology

Guidelines for Successful Trading

Introduction

To achieve a successful trading profession is more than a couple of good trades, and a fancy template in the trading platform, nor a social media trader’s fashioned lifestyle.

In this educational article, we’ll present a set of guidelines to aid in building a successful trading plan.

The Right Trading Mindset

Trading in financial markets must be understood as a decision process, which, when developed systematically, tends to provide consistent results.

Robert and Jens Fischer, in their work “Candlesticks, Fibonacci, and Chart Pattern Trading,” define a list of rules or guidelines that can aid investors in its decision-making process. These guidelines are as follows:

Self-knowledge 

If the investor feels uncomfortable when it is in the market, this could be indicative of an incorrect positioning in terms of position size or market side.

Ego by a winning streak

An increasing ego encouraged by a winning streak, especially in the first trades, could drag the investor toward huge losses.

Hopping when things go wrong 

Many traders tend to let run the losses expecting a market reversal to the trade direction, and they usually close a winning trade too soon, with a small profit (fearing a loss), which is a recipe for disaster. To solve this issue, traders must plan every trade in advance,  with a pre.defined stop-loss and profit target before opening any trade.

Losses are part of the business 

Investors must be aware that it is impossible to have 100% of winning trades

Avoid Martingale position sizing

The increasing the size of the position when the market and the trade moves against you is the path to bankruptcy.

Trading systems could fail

There is no trading system that could provide 100% of winner trades. However, losses will increase when the investor jumps from one system to another. Each strategy has its advantages and disadvantages. The profitability of any trading system will depend on the market conditions, and the investor must learn to live with the potential risk of his trading system.

Diversify the risk

Independent of the profitability associated with a trading product, the systematic diversification of risk could give the investor a smoother equity curve growth than when considering only a single trading asset.

Making Money by trading is a long road 

The consistent and profitable trading in financial markets is the result of a systematic work taking months or years where results obtained can confirm the rentability of each trading system.

The importance of a trading plan

Successful trading is not to make money quickly; it is related to the capability to make profits consistently long term, independently of changing market conditions.

A comfortable trading strategy

The trading strategy must provide the investor with similar results in real-time than on paper-money or in the back-test mode. If the approach does not offer the same results in real-time, the methodology must be revised.

The importance of discipline

The most important characteristic of successful traders is discipline because they limit their decisions to their established trading methodology.

The Importance of Number Three

In the financial markets, there exist a vast number of ways to analyze it technically, for example, chartist formations, Elliott wave, or candlesticks patterns. However, those ways to analyze the market have in common, and it is number three.

  • In Elliott wave analysis, when the price moves in a trend, this develops three movements in the primary trend’s direction. 
  • The most popular chartist pattern known as Head and Shoulders has three tops (or valleys) and two valleys (or tops.) When the price reaches its third valley, the price action tends to break below the previous two valleys and continue a downward (or upward) sequence.
  • An ascending triangle corresponds to a continuation pattern, in the bullish case, three valleys, and two tops. When the price action touches by the third time the top, the price surpasses the previous two highs and continues its earlier move and continues its primary trend.

In the following figure, we observe a set of patterns that follows the characteristics of “three.”

 

Conclusions

In this educational article, we presented a set of guidelines to develop a trading mindset that can support a profitable trading methodology along time.
We also exposed a group of chart patterns that correspond to a simplification of three moves, which could support the analysis and generation of trading opportunities in the real market.
In the following article, we will present the basic principles of a trading strategy.

Suggested Readings

– Fischer, R., Fischer J.; Candlesticks, Fibonacci, and Chart Patterns Trading Tools; John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (2003).

Categories
Forex Forex Indicators Forex Market Analysis Forex Price Action Forex Signals

EURAUD Reveals Strength Signals (UPDATE)

In our previous market analysis corresponding to EURAUD cross (read here,) we commented that the price action revealed potential raises, supported by the price action and confirmed by the RSI oscillator.

Trade Update

In the current update, we distinguish that the EURAUD cross soared until 1.64 level, from where the price found resistance in the dynamic resistance corresponding to the upper line of the ascending channel. Likewise, the RSI oscillator moves over level 70, which warns us about the intraday overbought.

With the advance over 120 pips in our previous setup, this situation carries us to consider the risk reduction or partially close the long position placed previously.

What’s Next?

For the next path, EURAUD could retrace until the blue box in the area of 1.6357, which could act as a pivot zone from where the price could find fresh buyers expecting to incorporate additional positions in the long side. If the price action does not experience the retracement forecasted, this is signal strong bullish sentiment in the EURAUD cross.

Categories
Forex Signals

EURAUD Reveals Strength Signals

Description

The EURAUD cross exposes in its 2-hour chart a short-term ascending move, developing a sequence of lower highs from the June 03rd low at 1.6033. 

During this trading week, we observe the last upward movement that EURAUD realized from the trading session corresponding to recent Monday 08th low at 1.6065 until Tuesday 09th high at 1.63495, which was elapsed in a small portion of time that the descending sequence from the previous week high at 1.63659. This context convinces us that institutional market participants could be interested in moving the price to the bull-side.

On the other hand, the bounce over level 40 observed in the SI oscillator leads us to conclude that the EURAUD cross is turning its bias from bearish to bullish.

Our outlook foresees a buy-side positioning from the current zone (1.6261) with a potential bullish target at 1.6532. This zone corresponds to the last pivot zone from where the EURAUD found support and then penetrated, creating a new lower low that carried down the price until the June 03rd low at 1.60332.

The invalidation level of our bullish scenario locates at 1.6139.

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Trading Plan Summary

Categories
Forex Market Analysis

Allianz Rejection to Signal a new Bearish Wave

Allianz (XETRA:ALV), a German-based financial company, sinks near 3% in the current week after having completed a zigzag pattern (5-3-5) when the price reached the level of €194.76 per share.

ALV exposes in its 2-hour chart the rejection in the zone of the upper line of the ascending channel that converges with the pause zone of the first downward sequence started on February 21ts when the price topped at €232.60 per share.

In the previous chart, we observe that ALV completed its first bearish three-wave sequence corresponding to wave A of Minor degree labeled in green. In this first leg, we distinguish that Allianz, in its last move, developed a terminal Elliott wave pattern corresponding to an ending diagonal that was completed on March 19th when the stock price found fresh buyers at €117.10.

Once the price jumped in a three-wave sequence, ALV raised until €163.74 per share, completing the wave (i) of the Minuette degree labeled in blue. This movement reveals an overlapped structural series that corresponds to a leading diagonal.

According to the Elliott wave principle, a leading diagonal tend to appear in waves 1 or A. Its internal structure follows a subdivision as 3-3-3-3-3. In the figure, we observe that the leading diagonal pattern ended at €177.40 per share, where the price found fresh sellers and completed its wave ((a)) of Minute degree labeled in black.

The breakdown of the intraday trendline that advances with wave (v) of ((a)) validated the end of wave ((a)) and the start of a new movement corresponding to wave ((b)). This new corrective move carried down to ALV to find support at €139.78 per share on May 14th, where the German financial company found the incorporation of fresh buyers, who moved the market in an upward five-wave sequence corresponding to wave ((c)) of Minuette degree in blue.

The third movement corresponding to wave ((c)) of Minute degree, which belongs to the corrective structure of upper-degree, developed its rally in a five-wave sequence until the level €194.76. This move shows its fifth internal wave as an extended move.

Following the Elliot Wave Theory, we can observe that the retracement that Allianz is starting to develop could drag to the stock price until the zone of the beginning of wave (v) in blue, where the price should find support.

In conclusion, our preferred positioning remains on the bearish side until the zone that marks the beginning of wave (v) of the Minuette degree.

Categories
Elliott Wave Guide Forex Elliott Wave

Advanced Level Elliott Wave Analysis Guide

We have ended the section that covers the Advanced Level of the Elliott Wave Analysis based on the work developed by Glenn Neely, “Mastering Elliott Wave.” These concepts are described and includes the following aspects:

  • Complex Corrective Waves. This section, subdivided into two parts, describes the two basic groups of complex corrections.
    • Part 1. Explains the fundamental concept of a complex corrective structure, which splits into standard and non-standard complex correction.
    • Part 2. Describes the concept of wave x and expands its conditions with its combinations.
  • Complexity in Wave Analysis. This article discusses how complexity increases as impulsive or corrective movements end. 
  • Alternation and Extensions. The first part of this section reviews the alternation principle and its different configurations. The second part covers the extensions and their conditions.
  • Counting. This educational article subdivided into three parts expose how to count waves.
    • Part 1. The first summarizes the aspects covered, then it shows the importance of wave identification and ends expanding the concept of the degree in wave analysis.
    • Part 2. The second part covers the use of retracements to define the possible type of sequence in progress. It also describes the different sequences of the patterns defined by R.N. Elliott as the first and the recount.
    • Part 3. In this part, we apply the counting process in the NZDUSD and EURGBP crosses.
  • Additional Rules. In this supplementary article, we cover a set of rules defined by Glenn Neely, as points of tangency in guidelines and the rule of time.
  • Additional Observations. This article develops the observations described by Neely, concerning the potential next movement considering the type of Elliott wave pattern in progress.
  • Advanced Applications in Wave Analysis. In this four-part series, we expand the observations described by Neely about each wave’s characteristics according to the type of Elliott wave formation in the course.
    • Part 1. The first part covers the motive waves subdivided into trending and terminal impulsive waves.
    • Part 2. This part exposes the variations of the flat and zigzag patterns.
    • Part 3. In this part, we present the characteristics of the contracting triangle pattern, particularly in its restrictive subgroup.
    • Part 4. This educational article that ends our cycle dedicated to the Elliott wave analysis covers the characteristics of the non-restrictive contracting triangles and presents the expanding restrictive and non-restrictive triangle pattern.

 

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave

Advanced Applications in Wave Analysis – Part 4 of 4

Introduction

In the previous educational article, we presented the contracting triangles and the restricting group. In this last part of our four-part series, we’ll show the non-restrictive contracting triangles and the expanding triangles with its variations. 

Non-Restrictive Triangles

This sub-group of triangles is characterized by locates in any other part of the wave cycle, not exclusively in waves 4 or B. The knowledge of this type of triangles could be useful to the wave analyst in the study of complex corrective patterns. This type of triangles tends to be produced at the end of complex corrections. Frequently, non-restrictive triangles tend to be more simple to identify than restrictive triangles.

  • Wave A. This segment tends to be the most volatile in terms of price at the time of the triangle. According to the alternation principle, if wave A is violent and takes a small portion of its completion, wave B will be slower and complex than wave A.
  • Wave E. In this scenario, the last segment of a non-restrictive contracting triangle, tends to develop a non-restrictive triangle. In other words, wave E could make a triangle inside a triangle of the upper degree. From the different types of non-restrictive triangles, the horizontal triangle tends to be the most common in the real market. The following list exposes the parts where the non-restrictive triangle.
    • Wave E in a horizontal triangle.
    • Last movement of a complex correction as a double or triple corrective pattern.
    • The fifth wave of an impulsive terminal structure.
    • The wave X of a complex correction.

Expanding Triangles

The expanding triangle tends to cheat the wave analyst more than the contracting triangle. This situation occurs because when the price moves in a volatile session, it tends to create a false breakout and quickly resuming its original trend.

The main characteristics of an expanding triangle are:

  • Wave A or wave B will be the shortest wave of the triangle.
  • Wave E tends to develop an explosive movement, higher in terms of price and time than the other waves.
  • In the same way that in contracting triangles, a contracting triangle can produce in wave E, in an expanding triangle, it can construct an expanding triangle.
  • The next movement of the triangle, which could correspond to wave C or 5, should not retrace the advance of wave E entirely.
  • The expanding triangle usually does not follow any Fibonacci relationship.
  • Expanding triangles normally occurs after a powerful movement such as an extended wave or an extended wave C. 

Restrictive Expanding Triangles

The restrictive expanding triangle tends to be placed in waves 4 and B. If the expanding triangle locates in wave B, the triangle belongs to a flat pattern. The rules applied to this group of expanding triangles are as follows:

  1. Waves A and E will be related through a 161.8%, being the wave E the largest segment.
  2. Wave A or B must be the shortest segment of the triangle.
  3. Only wave B or D can fail to try to surpass the previous wave.

Horizontal Expanding Triangle. The characteristics of this pattern are as follows:

  1. Wave A is the shortest segment of the triangle.
  2. Each leg after wave A will be larger than the previous segment.
  3. Wave E should be the most volatile, complex, and longer terms of time than the other waves.
  4. Wave E tends to be 161.8% of wave A.

Irregular Expanding Triangle. This variation of the expanding triangle is the most common to find in the real market. The main characteristic of this variation is that every time that wave B try to surpass to wave A fails in its advance. Wave E and A are show a 161.8% relationship, being wave E the longest segment.

Continuous Expanding Triangle. This type of restrictive expanding triangle is the second most common pattern to find in the real market. The continuous triangle characterizes by failing when this tries to surpass the end of wave C. If wave D fails, the pattern could show a slight bullish or bearish bias. Finally, waves A and E will be related in a 261.8%, being wave E the longest segment.

Non-Restrictive Expanding Triangles

The non-restrictive expanding triangle pattern follows the same conditions as restrictive expanding triangles. Its main characteristics are as follows:

  • Usually, they don’t have any Fibonacci relationship in their internal segments. The only relationship could be found on waves A and E, where wave E length could be 261.8% of wave A length.
  • The apex of the expanding triangle occurs before the triangle. If the apex occurs between 20% and the start of the expanding triangle, the formation should be non-restrictive.

Conclusions

In this educational article, corresponding to the last part of our four-part series covering the triangle pattern, we presented in the first section, the Non-Restrictive Contracting triangle. This group of contracting triangles tends to appear at the end of complex corrections, or the end of an impulsive terminal structure.

The second section corresponds to the expanding triangles, which are characterized by tricking the different market participants, who tend to think that the market has reversed and, after its last volatile movement corresponding to wave E, they discovered that the market in fact is resuming its previous trend.

Suggested Readings

  • Neely, G.; Mastering Elliott Wave: Presenting the Neely Method; Windsor Books; 2nd Edition (1990).

 

Categories
Forex Signals

EURAUD – Expecting Fresh Bullish Incorporations

Description

The EURAUD cross in its hourly chart exposes an intraday upward sequence, which began at 1.60334, in where the price reacted mostly bullish, developing five internal moves that violated the descending trendline prevailing from the past week.

For the following trading sessions, we expect a limited retrace between levels 1.6177 and 1.6145, from where the price could find fresh buyers waiting to place their limit long positions. 

Our bullish scenario considers the potential retrace until 1.6177 from where the price could find fresh buyers, which could allow us to incorporate in a new rally with a potential bullish target at 1.6394.

The bullish scenario will be invalid if the price plummets and closes below 1.6077.

Chart

Trading Plan Summary

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave

Advanced Applications in Wave Analysis – Part 3 of 4

Introduction

The triangle pattern is the third basic model of the corrective structures defined by R.N. Elliott. The triangle contains five internal segments and tends to appear in waves 4 and B. 

Glenn Neely, in his work “Mastering Elliott Wave,” expands the definitions of contracting and expanding triangle introduced by Elliott proposing two subcategories identified as non-restricting and restricting. 

In this educational article, corresponding to the third of four parts, we’ll present the triangle pattern variations and its implications in the wave analysis. In particular, we’ll discuss the contracting triangle pattern and its restrictive subcategory.

Contracting Triangles

This type of triangle is the most frequently identified in the real market. In this group, there are two types of triangles, restrictive and non-restrictive contracting triangles.

Restrictive Contracting Triangle

All contracting triangles have a similar shape in its construction. The main characteristic is that wave E ends before the apex of the triangle. The apex tends to occur in a range of 20% to 40% of the total triangle time extension. 

Concerning the thrust, in restrictive contracting triangles, it is limited by the most extended segment of the triangle (25% approx.) This type of triangles corresponds to the formations described by Elliott in his Treatise. Moreover, these patterns tend to appear in waves 4 and B.

  • Horizontal Contracting Triangle. Each segment must measure at least 38.2% of the previous segment, except for wave E. Wave B can’t be more than 261.8% of A, wave C can’t extend more than 161.8% of B. Wave D must be shorter than wave C, and wave E must be shorter than wave D.
    1. Wave A. This wave will not necessarily be the largest in terms of the price of the triangle. Likewise, it will not be the shortest wave of the pattern.
    2. Wave B. In this case, if wave B is shorter than wave A, then the rest will be shorter. If the wave is longer than wave A, there are a few possibilities that wave C will be longer than wave B, and the triangle formation corresponds to a contracting triangle. If wave C is longer than wave B, then the structure corresponds to an expanding triangle
    3. Wave C. Under a few circumstances, wave C could get longer than wave B. If this scenario occurs, then the base-line should be traced connecting waves C and E.
    4. Wave D. This wave must be shorter than wave C, although it could last longer than wave C.
    5. Wave E. This one must be the shortest wave of the triangle pattern.
  • Irregular Contracting Triangle. This variation is characterized by wave B being the most extended of the structure.
    1. Wave A. In this case, wave A will tend to be shorter in terms of time than wave B. The extension of wave B should be longer than 161.8 of wave A. Wave A could be any corrective pattern except for a triple zigzag or an extended flat.
    2. Wave B. This wave should be the largest wave of the entire formation, extending until 161.8% of wave A, but never beyond 261.8%. Wave B tends to be a zigzag or a double zigzag.
    3. Wave C. This wave will be shorter than wave B and should retrace at least 38.2% of wave B. Wave C could be a zigzag, flat, or an extended flat.
    4. Wave D. This wave will be shorter than wave C and should retrace at least 38.3% of wave C. Wave D could be any corrective pattern that alternates with wave C.
    5. Wave E. This wave will be the shortest wave of the triangle pattern in terms of price. Generally, wave E will tend to be a triangle pattern.
  • Continuous Contracting Triangle. This pattern is detected through the advance of waves B and D. Wave B will be larger than wave A, and simultaneously, wave D will be larger than wave C. The thrust of this pattern would be at least 161.8% respect to the largest segment of the triangle.
    1. Wave A. This wave should not be lower than 38.2% of wave B. Wave A could be a flat or a zigzag, but never a triangle or a double or triple zigzag. Most of the time, wave A will be a flat pattern.
    2. Wave B. This wave must be the largest segment of the complete formation. Its formation could correspond to a zigzag, double zigzag, or rarely a triple zigzag.
    3. Wave C. This segment must be shorter than wave B, and can’t be more complex than wave B.
    4. Wave D. This segment must be larger than wave C in terms of price and could be any type of corrective pattern except a triple zigzag.
    5. Wave E. This segment must be the shortest wave of the triangle. If the continuous triangle moves in wave B, this wave will frequently end at 61.8% or 38.2% of the entire movement.

Conclusions

In this educational article, corresponding to the third part of the four-part series, we presented the contracting triangle pattern under the restrictive subcategory.

The contracting triangle tends to be the most common corrective pattern in waves 4 and B. As said by R.N. Elliott in his Treatise, the knowledge of the corrective formations and its implications provides to wave analyst an advantage of the potential next move of the market.

In the next article, we’ll end this four-part present the non-restrictive contracting triangles and the expanding triangles.

Suggested Readings

  • Neely, G.; Mastering Elliott Wave: Presenting the Neely Method; Windsor Books; 2nd Edition (1990).

 

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave

Advanced Applications in Wave Analysis – Part 2 of 4

Introduction

As we commented in previous articles that cover the corrective structures, R.N. Elliott considers its study as a key to understand the current market situation and what to expect for the next path.

In this educational article, we expand the observations of the flat and the zigzag pattern.

Corrective Patterns in Action

In the first part of this four-part series, we commented that impulsive waves create trends. Corrective waves correct or retrace the progression of the trending movement developed by the motive waves. A corrective structure will never appear in a wave 1, 3, 5, in a wave A and C of a zigzag, and wave C of a flat pattern.

The Flat Pattern

The flat pattern develops different variations depending on the strength of the trend or the level of complexity of the correction in progress. In its fundamental nature, the flat follows an internal sequence as 3-3-5.

On the other hand, variations in the flat pattern surge in the extensions of its waves B and C. In brief words, as wave B extends more than the 100% of wave A, wave C will tend to be short. And the lesser the retrace of wave A by wave B, the larger wave C will be.

  1. Failure in B. This case represents the scenario when wave B retrace between 61.8% and 81% the progress of wave A. If wave B extends beyond 81%, it means that the market is temporarily weak. Wave B will fail when the wave A be a double zigzag or a double combination. Wave C will tend to retrace the advance of wave B entirely. This variation could appear in waves 2, 4, A, B, or inside a horizontal triangle in its legs C, D, or E.
  2. Failure in C. This type of failure tends to occur when wave A experiences a complete or almost complete retracement made by wave B. When the price movement fails in wave C, the market shows a signal against the dominant trend. In this context, this pattern will appear in a terminal sequence. Wave C duration will be shorter than wave B and will show a similar duration than wave A. This variation could arise in waves 2, 4, A, B, or the wave 5 of a terminal impulsive wave.
  3. Regular. This formation is the typical flat pattern. Wave B retraces at least 81% of wave A, and wave C will advance wave B entirely. Also, this wave could extend between 10% and 20% beyond the end of wave A. In this variation, wave B will tend to be a complex structure, and its extension in time will be longer than waves A and C. The regular flat could rise in waves 2, 4, A, B, or in waves C, D, or E in a terminal impulsive wave.
  4. Double Failure. This scenario is infrequent; however, the double failure occurs when wave B to retrace beyond 81% of wave A, and wave C doesn’t extend beyond 100% of wave A. The double failure variation will look like a contracting triangle. Finally, this scenario will tend to appear in waves 2, 4, in wave A inside of a triangle or an irregular flat. When it happens in a wave B, it could belong to a zigzag, a regular on in an extended flat.
  5. Extended. This configuration occurs when wave C advance reaches between 138.2% or beyond 161.8% of wave B. Waves A and B must be similar in terms of price and time. This variation should tend to appear in waves 1, 3, or 5 as an impulsive terminal wave. In waves A, B, C, or D in a horizontal triangle, or wave E of an expanding triangle.
  6. Irregular. This is the most straightforward variation of the flat pattern. At the same time, it isn’t easy to find it in the real market. This pattern is indicative of the strength of the previous move. Wave B must be higher than wave A in price. Generally, wave C will be equal to wave A in price and time relation. This variation tends to appear in waves 2, 4, in wave B before the extended wave C of a flat, or as the wave B in a zigzag when wave C moves beyond 161.8% of wave A.
  7. Continuous. This correction is the most powerful variation of the flat pattern. This type of formation tends to imply volatile movements of the same degree. The continuous flat pattern tends to emerge in the second wave after an extended third wave. When it appears in the fourth wave, this variation could occur before a fifth extended wave. In a wave B, it surges before an extended wave C; in a triangle pattern, it could happen in the a-b-c series, or in a wave B of a zigzag that forms a triangle structure.

The following figure represents the seven flat pattern variations.

The Zigzag Pattern

The main difference between zigzag and flat pattern is that zigzag does not have a wide variety. The central aspect to take in consideration with the zigzag pattern is the extension of wave C compared with wave A, and the subdivisions number of wave C compared with wave A.

  1. Wave A. This wave must have an impulsive structure; this means that its internal structure must contain five segments. The A wave of a zigzag formation shouldn’t experience a retrace beyond 61.8% by wave B. If the wave B retraces beyond 61.8%, this could be indicative that the market is developing a complex correction as a double zigzag or a double combination.
  2. Wave B. This wave must show a corrective structure with three segments in its construction. As stated earlier, its progression should not go beyond 61.8% of wave A. This wave never will present a continuous correction. If this situation occurs, then the zigzag moves inside a triangle pattern. In this case, the zigzag will be the second wave of an impulsive sequence. Consequently, if this scenario occurs, then the wave B could not be a complex corrective structure as a double or triple zigzag, nor any other type of combination of corrective structures.
  3. Wave C. This part of the zigzag pattern contains five internal segments. Its extension could be from 61.8% to 161.8% of wave A.

Conclusions

In this educational article, we presented the variations of the flat pattern and the zigzag. These variations can provide a significative clue to the wave analyst respecting to the market situation and what to expect for the following sessions.

In the next educational article, corresponding to the third part of the advanced applications in wave analysis, we will present the variations in the triangle pattern.

Suggested Readings

      • Neely, G.; Mastering Elliott Wave: Presenting the Neely Method; Windsor Books; 2nd Edition (1990).
Categories
Forex Signals

AUDJPY Advances in an Ascending Wedge

Description

The AUDJPY cross, in its 8-hour chart, shows the price action advancing in an ascending wedge pattern, which suggests the bearish continuation of the previous bearish trend.

Until now, the Oceanic cross completed four waves of Subminuette degree identified in green. For the following trading sessions, we expect a limited upside, which could develop a thrust as a false breakout completing the ascending wedge pattern.

Our conservative scenario considers a sell-side position if the price breaks and closes below the last low at 69.941. The potential bearish target locates at the end of wave iv in green at 67.680.

The bearish scenario will be invalid if the price soars and closes above 71.460.

Chart

Trading Plan Summary

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave

Advanced Applications in Wave Analysis – Part 1 of 4

Introduction

The Elliott wave theory applied in financial markets allows the wave analyst to support its forecasting process and make a decision in the investment stage.

This educational article corresponds to the first of four parts, which aim to help understand the current market position. In particular, we’ll present the impulsive waves and its variations.

Impulsive Waves in Action

The impulsive movements appear only in advance positions. In consequence, waves 2, 4, b, d, or x, will never be part of a motive wave. The wave analyst can find motive waves in only two market stages, in a trend structural series or when the markets develop a terminal sequence.

Trending Impulsive Waves

  1. First Extended Wave. When the market progress in a first extended wave, the second wave shouldn’t retrace beyond 38.2% of the first wave and should take more time in its formation than the fourth wave. The fifth wave will be the shortest motive wave. 
  2. First Non-Extended Wave. When the first wave is not the extended wave, the second wave can retrace it until 99%. If the first wave surges after a noticeable decline, the third wave will be the extended wave.
  3. Second Wave. If the first motive wave is (or probably will be) the extended wave, the second wave should not retrace beyond 38.2%. If the first wave is not the extended wave of the impulsive sequence, the second wave could retrace it until 99%. If in the second wave, its wave A retraces beyond 61.8%, thus the second wave should fail in its wave C.
  4. Third Extended Wave. This sequence has more chances to occur in the real market. In general, the fourth wave tends to take more time in its completion than the second wave. When the third wave is the extended move, the fifth wave tends to fail.
  5. Third Non-Extended Wave. When the third wave is not the extended wave, then the first or fifth wave will be the extended wave. However, the third wave will never be the shortest.
  6. Fourth Wave. If the fifth wave is the extended wave, then the fourth wave will be the complex correction of the complete five-wave sequence. If the first wave is the extended move, then the fourth wave will be a simple correction, and the second wave the complex correction. Generally, when the fifth wave is the extended move, the third wave will experience a retrace between 50% and 60%. If the third wave is the extended wave, the fourth wave will be the complex and retrace the third wave between 38.2% and 61.8%.
  7. Fifth Extended Wave. When the fifth wave is the extended move, its length in terms of price will be at least the length between the first and the end of the third wave. In general, this extended wave should not experience a complete retrace.
  8. Fifth Non-Extended Wave. In this case, the fifth wave should experience a retracement near to 100%. If the fifth wave belongs to the third wave of upper degree, then the fifth wave will experience a retrace until the fourth wave zone.
  9. Failure in Fifth Wave. This case is possible when the third wave is the extended wave.

Terminal Impulsive Waves.

In his work “The Wave Principle,” R.N. Elliott defined this kind of pattern as “triangle diagonal.” However, Glenn Neely to avoid confusion re-calls to this pattern as “terminal impulsive wave,” providing an intuitive and it-self definition. 

  1. First Extended Wave. In this case, the terminal impulsive wave tends to appear. The second wave shouldn’t retrace beyond 61.8% of the first wave. The third wave should extend near to 61.8% of the first wave, but it should never be less than 38.2%. The fourth wave will tend to be 61.8% of the second wave, and the guideline that connects the ends of waves 2 and 4, should be clear in its identification.
  2. First Non-Extended Wave. When this scenario occurs, the terminal structure will be the wave C of a corrective formation and not the end of an impulsive sequence.
  3. Second Wave. As we said previously, if the first wave is the extended wave, the second wave should retrace until 61.8% of the first wave. If the first wave is not an extended wave, thus the second wave could retrace until 99% the first wave.
  4. Third Extended Wave. When the third wave is the extended wave, rarely the market will develop a terminal impulsive wave. The likely context in its appearance could occur in a wave C, not in a motive wave.
  5. Third Non-Extended Wave. If this scenario occurs, the first wave will likely be the extended wave, and the fifth wave will be the terminal impulsive wave.
  6. Fourth Wave. The third wave should not experience a retrace beyond 61.8% by the fourth wave.
  7. Fifth Extended Wave. This scenario can happen if the structure advances inside of the fifth wave of upper degree or when the terminal impulsive sequence is the wave C of a corrective pattern, except in a horizontal triangle.
  8. Fifth Non-Extended Wave. In this scenario, the fifth wave shouldn’t be higher than 61.8% of the third wave, and the fifth wave shouldn’t be more complex than the other two impulsive waves. The fourth wave should take less time and price than the second wave.

Conclusions

In this educational article, we reviewed the context of each case of extended, non-extended, and corrective waves, which advances in a motive sequence.

In particular, the wave analyst must maintain in consideration that in an impulsive sequence must have only one extended wave, in this context, a complex correction should appear before or after an extended wave.

In our next article, that corresponds to the second part, we’ll present the observations in corrective waves, in particular, we’ll discuss the flat and zigzag patterns.

Suggested Readings

  • Neely, G.; Mastering Elliott Wave: Presenting the Neely Method; Windsor Books; 2nd Edition (1990).
  • Prechter, R.; The Major Works of R. N. Elliott; New Classics Library; 2nd Edition (1990).
Categories
Forex Elliott Wave

Additional Observations in Wave Analysis – Advanced Level

Introduction

R.N. Elliott, in his treatise “The Wave Principle,” emphasizes the importance of the corrective patterns knowledge. Elliott adds that its comprehension can provide to wave analyst an advantage in the forecasting process.

Glenn Neely, in his work “Mastering Elliott Wave,” not only expands this information defining a set of observations about the different corrective patterns and its potential implication for the next path. He also extends these observations to impulsive structures.

Corrective Patterns

The significative movements occur after a correction; in this sense, the knowledge of the potential extension of the next move provides a valuable edge to wave analyst.

The following list shows the corrective formations according to their strength level.

  1. Triple zigzag. This complex corrective pattern is the strongest of the corrections group. The triple zigzag rarely appears in the real market; however, its appearance is indicative of its strength (or weakness) level. When it surges, it will raise on a terminal structure, or in a triangle pattern. Once the triple zigzag ends, the next move will not experience a complete retracement.
  2. Triple Combination. This type of complex correction can be formed by a combination of flat, zigzag, and triangle. Usually, it will end with a triangle pattern. Once the triple three formation ends, the next path would tend to retrace the entire movement even in an upper degree. If this pattern surges as a terminal structure, the next move should entirely retrace the formation triple three.
  3. Triple Flat. This complex formation corresponds to the combination of three flat patterns. In this case, the next path should not retrace its advance completely, except when the Elliott wave structure surges as a terminal structural series in the fifth wave.
  4. Double Zigzag. This complex corrective pattern should not experience a complete retracement by the next movement.
  5. Double Combination. The double combination is a complex corrective pattern that generally could contain a zigzag or a flat formation with a triangle. In the same way, this structure tends to end with a failure in wave c. This pattern tends to be entirely retraced by the next path.
  6. Double Flat. This complex combination surges in rare cases. However, when it rises, generally, the next move will not retrace the complex structure fully.
  7. Extended Zigzag. This variation of the zigzag pattern generally appears in triangle formations or at the end of a terminal structure. The next path of an extended zigzag generally will never be entirely retraced.
  8. Extended Flat. This variation tends to emerge in triangle patterns. In the same way that the extended zigzag, the next move should not retrace it completely.
  9. Zigzag. This standard corrective pattern can be found in the real market. In general, the next path could retrace wholly and partially the extension of the zigzag pattern.
  10. Flat. Although this pattern and its variations are typical, the retracement of the next movement tends to be unclear.
  11. Double Three. In general, the extension of this complex corrective pattern tends to warn about the potential next movement. In short, while most extended being the double three pattern, the next move will be stronger.

Triangles

Glenn Neely, in his work, considers that triangle patterns require a different treatment. 

  1. Contracting Triangle. The thrust developed in a contracting triangle is a movement with a higher level of momentum. This move will be bigger or smaller, in terms of time, depending on its nature. If the contracting triangle is horizontal, the next path will be equal to the largest segment of the triangle. In the irregular contracting triangle case, the next movement will reach the 161.8% respecting to the largest leg of the triangle. Finally, in the continuous contracting triangle, the thrust can reach the 261.8% of the broadest segment of the triangle. 
  2. Expanding Triangle. In this kind of triangle, the thrust differs from the case of the contracting triangles. The thrust of an expanding triangle tends to be minor than the most extended segment of the triangle.

Impulses

The advantage of the next movement of an impulsive wave is the knowledge of the potential correction. In this context, it is tough to determine what kind of correction will occur before the corrective sequence begins. 

  1. Trend. After the motive wave completion, the impulsive movement should not experience a retracement beyond the origin of its first segment, except if the impulsive wave corresponds to a fifth wave. In general, waves A, 1, or 3, should not experience a retrace greater than 61.8% by the next move.
  2. First Extended Wave. When the extended wave is the first move, the motive wave should experience a retracement until the end of wave 4. 
  3. Third Extended Wave. In this case, once the impulsive wave is completed, the motive structure should experience a retrace between the high and low of the fourth wave.
  4. Fifth Extended Wave. The next corrective structure of a fifth extended wave should retrace more than 61.8% to the impulsive move.
  5. Terminal Structure. The movement after a terminal structure should retrace the progression of the terminal structure completely. The time elapsed in the evolution of the corrective move should be shorter than 50% of the time elapsed in the making of the terminal structure.

Conclusions

In this educational article, we discussed the observations described by Glenn Neely in his work “Mastering Elliott Wave” concerning the potential next movement, depending on the pattern in progress.

In this context, Neely, following the steps of R.N. Elliott, provides an ample proportion of time to describe what to expect after a corrective structure. This knowledge could provide the wave analyst an advantage in its comprehension about the market situation and what should be the potential next move.

In our following article, we will present the advanced applications in the wave analysis in a four-part series.

Suggested Readings

– Neely, G.; Mastering Elliott Wave: Presenting the Neely Method; Windsor Books; 2nd Edition (1990).

Categories
Forex Signals

GBPAUD Advances in an Ending Diagonal Pattern

Description

The GBPAUD cross, in its hourly chart, advances in a downward structure that follows the Elliott wave sequence as an ending diagonal pattern, which suggests a potential scenario of upside.

According to the textbook, the ending diagonal pattern is a structure that reflects the exhaustion of the trend, and its reversion would be imminent.

Currently, the price action advances below the lower guideline of the diagonal pattern, which warns us about the potential bearish failure continuation.

Our bullish scenario considers the long-side entry in the current area, looking for the upward move until the previous consolidation area at 1.8998. Our upward outlook considers the invalidation level at 1.87187

Chart

Trading Plan Summary

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave

Additional Basic Rules in Wave Analysis – Advanced Level

Introduction

In our previous educational article, we learned to recognize and count waves finishing the essential topics in the wave analysis process.
From now, we will start to present additional concepts and rules described by Glenn Neely in his work “Mastering Elliott Wave,” which would support the wave study.

Points of Tangency in the Guidelines

The tangency rule will help wave analysts in the process of identification between impulsive and corrective waves. This rule establishes that in a five segments pattern, only four internal movements will be touched simultaneously. This rule can be applied in impulsive and triangular formations.

The following figure illustrates a different set of Elliott wave structures where the wave analyst can apply this rule.

From the figure, the guidelines of both the first and second patterns converge each other. In the third figure, the guideline is parallel. The wave analyst must consider that the different segments that conform to the Elliott wave structure under analysis must have the same degree.

The following figure illustrates the tangency rule application in complex corrections.

From the figure, we distinguish that once touched the fourth point, corresponding to wave C completion, the price reacts against the direction of wave C. This reaction corresponds to a wave X. Its finalization will give the start of a new corrective structure from where the wave analyst could apply the tangency rule.

Rule of Time

Time is an essential element when the wave analyst makes its market study. According to the Elliott wave theory, in an impulsive structure, the two non-extended waves tend to be similar in price, time, or both. In corrective waves, a zigzag pattern its waves A and C tends to be identical in terms of time.

In short, the rule of time establishes that there can not be three adjacent waves of the same degree, which be equivalent or similar in time in a simultaneous way. 

The next picture illustrates the rule of time applied in impulsive structures.

From the figure, we observe that:

  1. If the two first segments of a pattern are equal or similar, the third segment will be different in terms of time, price, or both. The theory says that the third move will elapse the sum of the first and the second part.
  2. If the second segment lapses more than the first move, the third segment will be related in 61.8% or 161.8% of the first movement.
  3. If no one of the waves matches in terms of time, these could be adjusted in a Fibonacci ratio.

The following figure exposes the rule of time applied in corrective waves, in particular, the case of a flat pattern.

In some cases, the time elapsed by the wave C will be the sum of the time-lapsed by waves A and B. However, in the real market, the typical situation that could occur is that waves A and C will tend to match in terms of time, and wave B will be longer.

Conclusions

In this educational article, we started to present two basic rules for the wave analysis process. The first one corresponds to an extension of the canalization process, which its use allows the wave analyst to visualize with an objective method to define what kind of structure could be developing the price action.

The second one will bring the wave analyst a tool that would make a forecast of what could be the next path the market could take.

In the next educational article, we will present the advanced rules defined by Glenn Neely in his work “Mastering Elliott Wave.”

Suggested Readings

– Neely, G.; Mastering Elliott Wave: Presenting the Neely Method; Windsor Books; 2nd Edition (1990).

 

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Signals

CADJPY Moves in an Elliott Wave Triangle

Description

The CADJPY cross, in its 4-hour chart, shows a triangle pattern that should continue the upward movement of the previous impulsive move in the following trading sessions.

The Elliott wave perspective of CADJPY reveals the price action is running in a descending triangle, which could be ended its wave (e) of the Minuette degree labeled in blue. At the same time, CADJPY should be ending its wave ((ii)) of Minute degree in black.

The upward movement developed in the Thursday trading session, warns us that CADJPY could resume its advances in a wave ((iii)) of Minor degree.

Our bullish scenario considers an upside entry from the current zone at 76.373. In a conservative outlook, we expect a potential profit target at 77.973.3

Finally, the upward scenario will be invalid if the price action declines below 75.573.

Chart

Trading Plan Summary

  • Entry Level: 76.373
  • Protective Stop: 75.573
  • Profit Target: 77.973
  • Risk/Reward Ratio: 2 
  • Position Size: 0.01 lot per $1,000 in trading account.
Categories
Forex Signals

EURAUD Advances in a Potential Double Bottom Pattern

Description

The EURAUD cross in its 2-hour chart exposes the price action reacting bullish after the re-test of the short-term support at 1.65390.

The second bearish leg and its subsequent bearish failure make us foresee the EURAUD cross an upside that could boost the price until previous highs.

On the other hand, the RSI oscillator shows an upward breakout, which supports our bullish scenario.

A buy-side position could be placed from the current zone at 1.67166. Our conservative scenario foresees a potential profit target at 1.68166.

Finally, the upward scenario will be invalid if the price drops and closes below 1.66166.

Chart

Trading Plan Summary

  • Entry Level: 1.67166
  • Protective Stop: 1.66166
  • Profit Target: 1.67166
  • Risk/Reward Ratio: 1
  • Position Size: 0.01 lot per $1,000 in trading account.
Categories
Forex Elliott Wave

How to Count Using the Elliott Wave Principle Part 3 of 3 – Advanced Level

Introduction

Previously, we presented in a theoric way several criteria to realize wave counting, which could allow the wave analyst to foresee the likelihood next path of the market. In this educational article, we’ll analyze some examples in the real market.

Case 1 – NZDUSD Advances in a Corrective Sequence

The NZDUSD price in its hourly chart shows the progress in two consecutive corrective patterns. Our intraday analysis begins at the intraday high at 0.61305 reached on April 14th.

The price market reveals a decline in five internal segments of Subminuette degree identified in green. Once completed this move, the kiwi reacted bullishly, moving upward in three waves. This move ended a wave (b) of the Minuette degree labeled in blue. 

Observe how the price action completed the wave (c) of Subimiuette degree, developing an ending diagonal pattern, as commented on the previous article. The breakdown of this Elliott wave formation suggests the beginning of a bearish sequence that will correspond to a wave (c) of the Minuette degree.

The bearish sequence corresponding to wave (c) ended at 0.59104 on April 23rd reveals us that NZDUSD completed a zigzag pattern of Minuette degree.

The next move, developed by the NZDUSD cross, reflected the advance as a flat pattern and ended at 0.61758 on April 30th, when the kiwi developed an ending diagonal in the same way that the wave (b) of the previous zigzag pattern.

On the other hand, from the two patterns analyzed, we note the alternation principle in the corrective sequence, while the first correction is a zigzag, the second one is a flat pattern

Finally, the two consecutive corrective patterns, lead us to observe that NZDUSD completed a 3-3 sequence. In this context, the study of previous waves will reveal what should be the likely structure in progress and what could be the potential next move.

Case 2 – EURGBP Begins a Five-Wave Sequence from a Different Low

The second case considers the scenario when the market starts a five-wave sequence from a higher low. 

The EURGBP cross in its hourly chart shows the aggressive sell-off developed on December 12th, when the price plummeted to 0.82758. After this decline, the price consolidated and reached a slightly higher low at 0.82767 from where the cross began an impulsive movement identified as wave (i) of Minuette degree labeled in blue. 

Once the second wave ended, EURGP realized a third extended wave, which boosted the cross until 0.85917 reached on December 23rd. 

In this case, we observe the alternation principle in action. As the second wave is a simple correction. In consequence, the fourth wave must be a complex correction. In fact, from the chart, we observe that EURGBP developed a triangle pattern, which retraced beyond 38.2% of the third wave of Minuette degree. This context leads us to conclude that the cross should not reach a new higher high.

In this sense, the price action realized a limited higher high, which topped at 0.85959 last January 14th, from where it started to decline.

Conclusions

In this educational article, we showed a group of examples. In the first one, corresponding to the NZDUSD cross, we learned how the price action tends to end in ending diagonal patterns. 

In the same way, we observed the alternation principle applied in corrective waves, while the first corrective structure corresponded to a zigzag, the second formation built a flat pattern.

In the second chart, we observed that an impulsive sequence not necessarily will begin in the lowest (or highest) level of the price chart. This context makes us remember that an Elliott wave structure could finish developing a failure in the wave 5 or C.

On the other hand, the retracement experienced by the third extended wave beyond the 38.2% warned us about the exhaustion of the bullish momentum. This context provides us a signal of the limited potential next move corresponding to the fifth wave.

 

 

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave

How to Count Using the Elliott Wave Principle Part 2 of 3 – Advanced Level

Introduction

In our previous educational article, we discussed the basic concepts of the Wave Principle developed by R.N. Elliott and the wave counting process.

Glenn Neely, in his work “Mastering Elliott Wave,” describes a series of rules that will allow the wave analyst to objectively identify what kind of structural sequence is developing the price action.

In this educational article, we present a summary of the basic rules described by Neely and their impact on the wave analysis and counting process.

Use of Retracements in Wave Analysis.

When the wave analyst faces his first real-time market analysis, it may seem confusing to define what kind of wave the market is developing.

To solve this problem, Neely defined a set of rules that will allow the wave analyst to determine what kind of sequence the market develops.

These rules are described as follows.

Our reader can examine with more detail these rules and the Fibonacci retracements use in wave analysis here.

Types of Structural Series

R.N. Elliott, in his work “The Wave Principle,” defined some specific patterns that tend to repeat across the time. These patterns are built by different structural series that the wave analyst should know before to start the counting process. These Elliott wave structures are formed as follows.

Impulsive waves (:5)

  • Impulse – 5-3-5-3-5
  • Leading or Ending Diagonal – 3-3-3-3-3

Corrective waves (:3)

  • Zigzag – 5-3-5
  • Flat – 3-3-5
  • Triangle: – 3-3-3-3
  • Double Three – 3-3-3
  • Triple Three – 3-3-3-3-3

Remember that double and triple three are combined patterns.

The First Count and the Recount

As the level of complexity increases, wave sequences tend to create new waves of a higher degree, which can lead to confusing the wave analyst to identify where each wave begins and ends. For this, we use the validation channels and rules we have seen in previous articles.

Usually, the first analysis tends to be the one that presents the greatest challenge, because it tends to consider the highest level, or the lowest, to start the wave count. However, not necessarily the lowest, or highest level will be the beginning of an impulsive structure. This situation occurs because most methods of analysis consider the highest and lowest level as the starting point for analysis.

In terms of wave theory, a structural sequence will not end at the highest (or lowest) point due to the loss of momentum of price action. This situation will be reflected in one of the following four ways:

  1. An impulsive sequence containing a failure in the fifth wave.
  2. A flat pattern will end with a C-wave failure.
  3. A complex formation will end with a non-restrictive contractive triangle.
  4. An impulsive structure ends with a terminal pattern.

The following figure shows each of the four scenarios where the sequence will not end at the lowest level.

When a potential impulsive pattern experiences a reversal higher than its beginning, then the recount must consider that the origin of the previous movement is not the origin of an impulsive structural series, but can be part of a complex corrective structure.

Conclusions

In this educational article, we review different criteria described by Glenn Neely in his work “Mastering Elliott Wave,” which allow the wave analyst to identify what kind of structure the market could be developing.

Later, we reviewed the different patterns that R.N. Elliott described in his work “The Wave Principle” and his internal sequences. Currently, the patterns described by Elliott in the 1930s still can be recognized in the real market.

Finally, we discussed the cases where the market does not finish or start a new impulsive or corrective sequence from the lowest or highest point but will depend on how the previous structural series ends. 

In the next educational article, corresponding to the third and last part of the wave counting process, we will see a series of examples of wave counting and identification.

Suggested Readings

  • Neely, G.; Mastering Elliott Wave: Presenting the Neely Method; Windsor Books; 2nd Edition (1990).
  • Prechter, R.; The Major Works of R. N. Elliott; New Classics Library; 2nd Edition (1990).
Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Signals

Gold Could Develop a Bearish Wave C

Description

Gold, in its 2-hour chart, illustrates a decreasing advance that could correspond to a corrective structure in progress, which could result in further declines.

The Elliott wave sequence suggests the possibility of an incomplete wave ((c)) that could be developing its internal wave (ii) of the Minuette degree identified in blue.

On the other hand, the yellow metal retraced until 50% of the last bullish sequence. This retrace makes us foresee that the upward cycle could be in an exhaustion stage, and Gold couldn’t realize a new higher high that surpass the April high at $1,747.74 per ounce.

Our bearish scenario foresees a decline from the current area at $1,696 per ounce, with a potential bearish target located at level $1,676. 

The scenario forecasted will be invalid if the price surpasses and closes above $1,711 per ounce.

Chart

Trading Plan Summary

  • Entry Level: $1,696.62
  • Protective Stop: $1,711.62
  • Profit Target: $1,676.62
  • Risk/Reward Ratio: 1.33
  • Position Size: 0.01 lot per $1,000 in trading account.
Categories
Crypto Market Analysis Forex Elliott Wave Forex Signals

Bitcoin Cash Prepares for a New Rally

The price of Bitcoin Cash (BCH/USD) is preparing to develop a new rally that could take it to beat the previous highs of March, located in the area of 352.96.

BCH/USD, in its 4-hour chart, shows the advance of a potential upward impulsive sequence that began when the price found its bottom at level 133.67 last March 13th.

From the previous chart, we observe the price action advancing in its wave ((iv)) of Minute degree labeled in black. At the same time, this ongoing structural series is forming the internal segment corresponding to wave (c) of the Minuette degree identified in blue.

The wave (c) in progress began at the top of April 30th, located at level 275.95, when Bitcoin Cash completed its wave (b).

The internal structure of the wave (c) shows the intraday downward trendline joining the sequence of lower highs, which leads us to conclude that the short-term sentiment maintains on the bearish side.

On the other hand, according to the Elliott wave theory, for the long-term structural series to be a valid impulsive sequence, the wave ((iv)) must not penetrate the area of wave ((i)).

In this context, the corrective downward movement currently being developed by BCH/USD should not fall below the 200 level, which corresponds to the top of the wave ((i)).

On the other hand, one of the aspects that consider both the alternation principle and the construction of the extended wave indicates that an extended wave will be preceded or followed by a complex corrective structure.

Considering this Elliott wave concept, from the 4-hour chart, we observe that the current corrective sequence shows a level of complexity higher than the complexity level developed by wave ((ii)). Consequently, once the structural series of wave ((iv)) will complete, BCH/USD should perform a new upward impulsive movement that should present the characteristic of an extended wave, which could surpass the level 352.

In conclusion, as long as the wave ((iv)) of Minute degree does not finish, our preferred positioning will remain neutral, waiting for confirmation to enter on the bullish side that allows incorporation to the wave ((v)).

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave Forex Signals

EOS Consolidates on the Leading Diagonal Pattern

The EOS prices develop a bullish sequence following the Elliott wave structure of a leading diagonal pattern, which began on the March low at 1.4200.

The price action developed by EOS and reflected in its 4-hour chart, shows the cryptocurrency testing the baseline of the leading diagonal pattern, which links the end of the waves ((ii)) and ((iv)) of Minute degree labeled in black.

According to the textbook, a leading diagonal pattern is an impulsive structure having five internal segments, which are subdivided into an internal sequence 3-3-3-3-3. This pattern tends to appear on the first wave of an impulsive series.

So far, EOS completed a five-wave bullish sequence of Minute degree. This impulsive wave began in the March low at 1.4200. At the same time, this structural series gave rise to a higher-grade impulsive wave corresponding to the wave 1 of Minor degree labeled in green.

Following the wave theory described by R.N. Elliott, since EOS completed an impulsive movement, the market must perform a corrective sequence of the same degree and in the opposite direction to the previous move.

From the previous chart, we observe the price action developing a corrective downward movement. Within its internal structure, we recognize that the sequence in progress could correspond to a wave ((b)) of Minute degree identified in black.

This movement, which is composed of a three-wave internal structure, is moving on the baseline of the leading diagonal pattern. A bearish breakdown would activate the wave ((c)) in black.

Once EOS completes this three-wave sequence, it will end the wave 2 of Minor degree, and consequently, the price action will give way to a third upward wave.

According to the alternation principle between the impulsive waves, considering that the first wave has a lower momentum, the third wave could have a higher momentum than the first one.

In conclusion, in the short term, our preferred positioning remains on the bullish side, which will be confirmed once the Minor degree wave-2 is finished.

Categories
Forex Signals

CADJPY – Contracting Triangle Suggests Fresh Upsides

Description

The CADJPY cross, in its 4-hour chart, exposes a contracting triangle pattern that belongs to the second wave of Minute degree identified in black.

According to the alternation principle and the extensions of the Elliott wave theory, this complex structure should precede the extended impulsive wave.

On the other hand, the last rally developed by the Oil group could support the bullish sentiment in favor of the Canadian currency.

A buy-side position will activate if the CADJPY cross soars above 76.08. In our conservative scenario, we foresee a rally at least until the level 78.16; however, we don’t discard an upside till level 80. 

The bullish scenario will be invalid if the price drops below the level 74.63.

Chart

Trading Plan Summary

Categories
Forex Signals

EURUSD Could Visit the 1.10 Level Again

Description

EURUSD, in its 2-hour chart, illustrates an expanding triangle in progress that began in early April and could develop a limited decline before rallies. 

The current bearish leg in progress shows an aggressive decline supported by an extreme oversold revealed on the RSI oscillator. However, the price action remains its bearish momentum.

For the coming trading sessions, we foresee a consolidation structure, which should move up the RSI oscillator. After this move, the EURUSD should decline modestly, creating a bullish divergence, for then unveiling a bullish divergence.

Likely the NFP data release on Friday could provide the necessary volatility to activate the upward scenario as the result of a false decline.

The buy-side position will activate if the common currency touches and closes above level 1.0782. Our conservative scenario foresees an upside to 1.10 as a psychological level

The bullish scenario will be invalid if EURUSD violates the 1.0636, which corresponds to March 22nd low.

Chart

Trading Plan Summary

 

Categories
Forex Signals

Litecoin Shows Two Potential Scenarios

Litecoin is progressing slightly upward within a complex structural series, which leads to foresee two possible scenarios.

The cryptocurrency Litecoin against the US Dollar (LTC/USD), in its 8-hour chart, shows the plummet that led it to lose more than 70% of its value since February 13th when the price topped at level 84.193. 

Once Litecoin hit the top at 84.193, the price made a three-wave bearish sequence, which ended on March 13th when the price found fresh buyers at level 24.850. In the previous chart, we distinguish this structural series identified in the waves ((a)-((b))-((c)) of Minute degree in black.

After LTC/USD completed the wave ((c)), the price action began to advance in a complex structural series with its internal movements composed of three waves. This sideways movement with a slightly upward bias leads us to foresee two potential scenarios for currency crypto.

Scenario 1 – Triangle Pattern in Progress

The first scenario considers the possibility that Litecoin advances in a triangular formation belonging to a wave B of Minor degree labeled in green.

According to the Elliott wave theory, a triangle pattern is composed of a series of five internal segments, which is subdivided into three waves following the 3-3-3-3 structure. Likewise, within a price cycle, this pattern tends to appear in waves 4 and B.

Scenario 2 – Developing a Leading Diagonal

The second scenario presents the option that the price action develops an ending diagonal pattern.

This type of pattern is composed of five internal waves overlapped one each other and follows a 3-3-3-3-3 sequence.

If the price action develops this scenario, the next movement should correspond to a wave 2 of Minor degree, and it should be composed of a three-wave structural series.

The main consequence of this scenario would be that, once the wave 2 completion, Litecoin should perform a bullish wave 3.

At the same time, considering the alternation principle of the wave theory, this third wave should have greater upward momentum than that momentum observed in the current wave in progress.

In conclusion, our short term preferred positioning is on the neutral side until the completion of the current formation.

Categories
Forex Signals

USDJPY Shows an Incomplete Bearish Sequence

Description

The USDJPY pair, in its 2-hour chart, exposes an incomplete bearish Elliott wave formation as an ending diagonal pattern, which suggests the possibility of further declines for the coming trading sessions.

Currently, USDJPY develops a bearish corrective sequence that began on March 24th, when the price topped at 111.715. 

The internal structure of the three-wave sequence shows an incomplete ending diagonal pattern in the wave (c) of Minuette degree labeled in blue, from where the price should develop its fifth wave of Subminuette degree in green.

The intraday chart shows a consolidation structure in progress, which could provide an opportunity to place us on the sell-side. Our potential profit target locates at 105.812, which coincides with the lower line of the downward diagonal. 

Our bearish scenario will be invalid if the price breaks and closes above 107.512, or surpass the upper line of the diagonal pattern.

Chart

Trading Plan Summary

  • Entry Level: 106.812
  • Protective Stop: 107.512
  • Profit Target: 105.
  • Risk/Reward Ratio: 1.43
  • Position Size: 0.01 lot per $1,000 in account.
Categories
Forex Elliott Wave

How to Count Using the Elliott Wave Principle Part 1 of 3 – Advanced Level

Introduction

Wave counting is a systematic process by which the wave analyst identifies in a logical and standardized order the movement developed by the action of the market.

R.N. Elliott, in his work “The Wave Principle,” comments out that counting is not the most relevant part of the study of wave theory; however, this process empathizes that it is useful when studying the market progress across time.

Elliott, the Wave Principle, and Financial Markets

The Wave Principle, defined by R.N. Elliott, is part of the law of nature, which, when known, can make predictions without knowing the underlying causes that originated this phenomenon.

In this context, financial markets are the result of a socio-economic interaction, which reflects the psychological feeling of the participants interacting in the negotiation process.

Despite the interests of each market participant, the outcome of the trading process is reflected in a price chart.

Elliott, in his work “The Wave Principle,” detected that price tends to make repeated movements over time. 

On the one hand, there are movements that, over time, create trends. Elliott defined these movements as impulsive and are characterized by being composed of five segments.

On the other hand, Elliott described movements that oppose to impulsive moves as corrections and are composed of three internal segments.

Once the price action completes an impulsive sequence and a corrective movement, the market completes a cycle and starts a new one of similar dimension or degree

The following figure shows the complete structure of a cycle.

What We Have Studied So Far

Until now, our study of wave analysis has included the following aspects:

  • Identification of directional and non-directional movement.
  • Impulsive and corrective structure.
  • Types of corrective waves.
  • Extensions.
  • Canalization.
  • The alternation principle.
  • Validation of impulsive and corrective waves.
  • Complex corrective structures.
  • Identification and wave degrees.

The process of analyzing and identifying waves will be an integration of all these concepts, which will allow the wave analyst to make a high probability forecast for the next market movement.

The Degrees Importance

R.N. Elliott defined a set of degrees that do not obey a specific timeframe, for example, hourly chart, or 2-day temporality. But allow the wave analyst to evaluate a structural sequence that maintains a proportionality in terms of price and similar time.

Also, the use of the degrees allows us to identify, and in turn, to predict what will be the next movement that should act for the price in a given time horizon.

The following table shows the different degrees described by Elliott and the contributions incorporated by Prechter & Frost in his work “Elliott Wave Principle.”

In general, our analyses will start from the Subminuette degree.

Conclusions

In this first section, we have seen the basis of the Wave Principle developed by R.N. Elliott. Likewise, we review the structure that makes up a complete cycle and concludes with the description of the different degrees that Elliott defined to maintain a systematic order in the process of analysis.

In the next educational article, we will review the different regression rules that will allow us to systematize the counting process in the first wave count.

Suggested Readings

  • Neely, G.; Mastering Elliott Wave: Presenting the Neely Method; Windsor Books; 2nd Edition (1990).
  • Prechter, R.; The Major Works of R. N. Elliott; New Classics Library; 2nd Edition (1990).
  • Prechter, R., Frost.A.J.; Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior; New Classic Library; 10th Edition (2005).
Categories
Forex Signals

Gold Setting for Further Declines

Description

Gold, in its 2-hour chart, exposes the violation of the ascending trendline that links the latest lower highs. 

The last pause structure that looks like a flag pattern suggests the possibility of bearish continuation of the previous downward movement.

On the other hand, the lower speed observed in the price action, and considering the alternation principle, we expect an aggressive sell-off, which could be supported by the strength of the US Dollar.

In the same way, the RSI oscillator rejected the last upside below level 60, which provide us an additional clue for the bearish sentiment.

We consider a bearish scenario from the current levels expecting a decline until $1,631 per ounce. 

Our bearish outlook will be invalid if the price soars and closes above $1,731 per ounce.

 Chart

Trading Plan Summary

Categories
Forex Signals

GBPJPY – Bull Traders May Be Taking Back Control

Description

The GBPJPY cross in its hourly chart shows an intraday upward reaction leaving an engulfing candle. This movement suggests the possibility of a bullish sequence, which could continue in the trading sessions ahead. 

On the other hand, the RSI oscillator exposes a bullish breakout of the descending trendline corresponding to the last decline developed by the cross.

Our bullish scenario considers the possibility of a retrace of price action until the area of the previous pivot candle at level 132.62. This retracement could allow the incorporation of fresh bull traders supporting the movement left by the engulfing candle.

In our conservative scenario, we expect an upside above the previous highs at level 133.76. The level that invalidates our upward setup locates at 131.67.

Chart

Trading Plan Summary

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave

Alternation and Extensions in the Wave Analysis – Advanced Level

Introduction

In previous articles, we discussed the concepts of alternation and extensions and their importance in wave analysis.

R.N. Elliott, in his work “The Wave Principle,” described alternation as a principle of nature. Likewise, since financial markets are the result of human activity, and consequently part of nature, they are governed by the “law of nature.”

Elliott also identified the existence of extensions as part of impulsive movements. In particular, in his Treatise, Elliott points out that extensions should appear only on one of the three motive waves and never on more than one.

In this educational article, we will review and expand on the concepts of Alternation and Extensions applied in wave analysis.

Alternation

As we have seen in previous articles, alternation can be recognized in different forms, which are detailed as follows:

  1. Price, which corresponds to vertical advance, either increasing or decreasing.
  2. Time, which corresponds to the time taken by the construction of each wave.
  3. Severity, which is the ratio of the wave to the impulsive pattern, this aspect applies only to corrective waves 2 and 4.
  4. Complexity, which refers to the number of subdivisions that the Elliott pattern has in development.
  5. Construction, an Elliott wave pattern, can be a flat, zigzag, triangle, etc.

So far, we have studied the characteristics of alternation in the first three aspects. 

In impulsive structures, they can alternate in terms of time and price. However, in corrective structures, alternation in terms of price is usually not relevant. 

However, on alternation in time, in particular, one must verify the time taken by each phase of the corrective pattern, which in general will be very different from each other. Likewise, in terms of severity, if a corrective wave produces a deep retrace to the previous impulsive wave, likely, the next corrective wave will not show a deep retrace and vice versa.

The next aspect that corresponds to the alternation principle is complexity or intricacy, which refers to the number of internal subdivisions that have an Elliott wave pattern, compared to the number of subdivisions that have the adjacent structure.

In practical terms, it will be useful for the analysis of poly-waves and multi-waves. In this way, it will be helpful for one wave to be subdivided and the other not. 

The following figure shows cases for impulsive and corrective structures.

The alternation in terms of construction corresponds to the patterns that compose an impulsive or corrective structure. 

For example, in a corrective sequence in which the first movement is composed of a zigzag pattern, the next corrective move can be any structure, minus a zigzag. 

In this context, in the real market, a typical sequence is first the appearance of a zigzag and then a movement corresponding to a flat pattern, as shown in the following figure. Likewise, if the price action develops an impulsive structure, the next movement will correspond to a corrective structure of the same degree.

 

Extensions

Usually, in wave analysis, the extension and subdivision concepts tend to be used interchangeably. However, Glenn Neely, in his work “Mastering Elliott Wave,” shows that both terms are independent.

On the one hand, the extension corresponds to the wave with the longest movement in favor of the trend. As we have seen in previous articles, the extended wave appears in a single wave, and this may be in the first, third, or fifth wave, but it will never be present in more than one simultaneously.

On the other hand, the term subdivision applies to the number of segments constituting a wave, which can be impulsive or corrective.

Thus, the extended wave will not necessarily be the one with the most subdivisions. Likewise, as the complexity of the wave under study increases, the level of subdivisions that constitute it will also increase.

Finally, as indicated by R.N. Elliott in his Treatise, the extended wave is a relevant factor in terms of the behavior of an impulsive wave, either by what the most complex corrective wave will be. It can also lead the wave analyst to avoid losses and obtain gains from its knowledge.

When the first wave is extended, the structural sequence has a wedge shape. In this series of waves, the ends of waves 1 and 3 and waves 2 and 4 are joined. Usually, the fifth wave will end up under the higher guideline. The structure shall be complete when the price action violates the lower guideline joining waves 2 and 4.

When the third wave is the extended one, the fourth wave should not retrace beyond 38.2% of the third wave advance. If the retrace extends beyond 38.2%, this would be indicative of a weakness in impulsive movement, and consequently, the fifth wave should not reach a new high.

Finally, when the fifth wave is the most widespread, waves 1 and 3 may be similar, the third wave being slightly longer than the first and the fourth wave the most complex corrective wave compared to the second wave. The fifth wave will have the appearance of a false rupture of the directive that joins waves 1 and 3.

Conclusions

In this educational article, we have seen the importance of the principle of alternation in wave analysis, which can provide valuable information in the study of price action.

Also, knowledge of the alternation principle can help the wave analyst to identify which wave will be extended. In particular, when the analysts look to incorporate to the trend when it is in progress.

In the next educational article, we will study the process of wave counting and counting.

Suggested Readings

  • Neely, G.; Mastering Elliott Wave: Presenting the Neely Method; Windsor Books; 2nd Edition (1990).
  • Prechter, R.; The Major Works of R. N. Elliott; New Classics Library; 2nd Edition (1990).

 

Categories
Forex Signals

EURAUD – Breaking above the Falling Wedge

Description

The EURAUD cross, in its hourly chart, shows a falling wedge chartist pattern, which could be ending due to the price action soars above the upper line of the descending formation.

The falling wedge is a terminal formation that suggests the end of the trend, and in consequence, the possibility of the change of the market bias.

On the other hand, the oscillators RSI and MACD shows exhaustion signals of the bearish trend in progress. In the same way, RSI exposes a breakout signal, suggesting the probability of a new bullish movement.

If the price action confirms the bullish breakout, the EURAUD cross may soar until level 1.7019. The level that invalidates our bearish scenario locates at 1.6706.

Chart

Trading Plan Summary

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave

Understanding the Complexity in Wave Analysis – Advanced Level

Introduction

Financial markets are the result of human interactions where one party buys and the other sells. The results of these actions are reflected in a price chart. 

R.N. Elliott studied the interactions between these two forces that move the market. In his study, Elliott detected that specific patterns repeat themselves over time. He also identified that the price tended to move in impulsive and corrective movements.

Elliott recognized that as time progresses, the price develops movements that, in its basic unit, correspond to segments, those that have a low level of complexity. 

The complexity increases at an additional level as these segments complete a series of three or five movements, giving origin to the wave. 

Later, as a wave is completed, another movement emerges, giving course to a new wave. As this ordered sequence advances in time, the price forms structures that we could call as “poli-waves,” which Elliott defined in the form of patterns corresponding to a structure or wave of higher degree.

The interaction between different sequences of “poli-waves” or basic wave patterns, give origin to a more complex structure, which we can define as “multi-wave.” In turn, when a succession of 3 or 5 multi-waves completes, the price action creates a structure of a higher degree whose complexity level is higher. We can call this complex structure as “macro-wave.”

Multi-wave Construction

Multi-waves are complex structural series that is characterized by having at least one poly-wave in their internal structure. The type of waves can be impulsive or corrective.

Impulsive Multi-waves. They are structures in which one or several of their impulsive waves are poly-waves. Its training requirements are as follows:

  1. Of the three impulsive forward waves, only one must be a poly-wave; the other two can be simple movements.
  2. At least one of the two corrective waves can be a poly-wave, the other can be a poly-wave or a simple wave.
  3. The longer-lasting corrective wave 2 or 4 will occur just before or after the extended wave.

The following figure shows the different patterns of multi-waves of impulsive nature, being the second case, which corresponds to the third extended wave the most common.

Corrective Multi-wave. In the same way as multi-impulsive waves, the corrective multi-waves must contain specific requirements, which are described below.

  1. One or two of the waves that are divided into five waves in the longer pattern should be able to be subdivided as a poly-wave. If it has only one structure subdivided into five, it will be a Flat, while if it has two structures divided into five, it will be a zigzag pattern.
  2. The multi-wave B wave is likely a corrective poly-wave.

The following figure shows two types of corrective multi-waves.

 

Complex Multi-waves Construction

The complex multi-wave analysis does not differ from complex wave analysis composed of poly-waves. The difference is that complex multi-waves are composed of multi-wave groups and not poly-waves.

Macro-waves Construction

As the market develops, the structural series can be grouped as multi-waves and thus form a macro-wave

Impulsive Macro-waves. This type of structure is composed of a multi-wave in one of its three impulsive waves, while the other two will be a poly-wave. 

Corrective Macro-waves. Must contain at least one multi-wave, and another wave must be a poly-wave. If the structural series has two multi-wave, the complex structure will be a zigzag, and its formation has only one multi-wave, the corrective structure will be a flat pattern.

Conclusions

In this educational article, we have seen how, as time advances, the complexity of the waves also increases. 

However, the wave analysis whose level of complexity is higher, being it a multi-wave or macro-wave, must be realized in the same way to that studied in the wave analysis section corresponding to the intermediate level wave analysis. 

This situation leads us to conclude that the market behaves in a fractal way over time, and wave analysis does not change regardless of the proportion of time studied.

In the next educational article, we will expand on the concepts of alternation and extensions.

Suggested Readings

  • Neely, G.; Mastering Elliott Wave: Presenting the Neely Method; Windsor Books; 2nd Edition (1990).
Categories
Forex Elliott Wave

Complex Corrective Waves Analysis – Advanced Level – Part 2 of 2

Introduction

In the first part of the complex corrective wave analysis article, we presented two conditions that suggest the development of a wave x. 

The first condition considers whether the second compacted corrective wave retraces less than 61.8% from the first correction. The second condition occurs if the second corrective structure retraces more than 161.8% from the first correction.

Glenn Neely, in his work “Mastering Elliott Wave,” indicates that if the first condition occurs, then the market performs a complex correction with a small wave x. While for the second case, the price action develops a complex correction with a large wave X.

Condition 1 – Complex Correction with Small Wave x.

When the wave analyst identifies a non-standard wave, there is a high probability that the wave x is smaller than 61.8% of the previous corrective phase. This type of wave tends to take the form of an impulsive sequence. However, its internal details rule out this possibility.

The non-standard structural sequence or series may have various combinations, which are detailed below:

  1. Double zigzag (5-3-5-wave x-5-3-5)
  2. Double three (5-3-5-wave x-3-3-3-3-3)
  3. Double three (5-3-5-wave x-3-3-5)
  4. Double flat (3-3-5-wave x-3-3-5)
  5. Double three (3-3-5-wave x-3-3-3-3-3)
  6. Triple zigzag (5-3-5-wave x-5-3-5-wave x-5-3-5)
  7. Triple three (5-3-5-wave x-5-3-5-wave x-3-3-3-3-3)
  8. Triple three (5-3-5-wave x-3-3-5-wave x-3-3-3-3-3)

From the above list, the triangular formation likely corresponds to a contractive triangle. On the other hand, waves x can be other corrective waves without altering the entire structure. 

The wave analyst must take into account the application of the alternation principle. In particular, the x-wave will alternate with its preceding wave. For example, if the first compact wave corresponds to a zigzag, the x-wave will be a plane or a triangle.

The following figure shows two examples of complex corrective waves that accomplish thew first condition. In particular, the case corresponds to a double zigzag, and a double three consisting of a zigzag pattern and a triangle structure.

Condition 2 – Complex Correction with Large Wave X 

When the wave analyst detects a complex correction in which the wave X is larger than the previous correction in terms of price, the entire formation will be classified as double or triple three patterns.

This structural series can have various combinations, which are detailed below:

  1. Double three (3-3-5-wave X-3-3-3-3-3)
  2. Double three (3-3-5-wave X-3-3-5)
  3. Triple three (3-3-5-wave X-3-3-5-wave X-3-3-3-3-3)
  4. Triple three (3-3-5-wave X-3-3-5-wave X-3-3-5) 

In summary, the structural series of both conditions have been listed in the most likely order of occurrence.

As in the first condition, the following figure shows two cases of double three patterns.

Conclusions

So far, we have seen the different construction characteristics of complex corrective waves and how to differentiate each type of complex wave.

In particular, we saw the two main conditions that characterize complex corrective waves.

In the following educational article, we will present the conditions associated with each particular formation.

Suggested Readings

  • Neely, G.; Mastering Elliott Wave: Presenting the Neely Method; Windsor Books; 2nd Edition (1990).
Categories
Forex Signals

CADJPY Could Develop a New Bullish Leg

Description

The CADJPY cross, in its 4-hour chart, illustrates a consolidation structure after the price developed an impulsive bullish movement from the March 18th low at 73.803, which finished when the cross topped at 78.479 on March 25th.

The consolidation structure realized by CADJPY looks like a corrective formation in three-waves, which could bounce from the current zone that coincides with the 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement of the previous impulsive movement.

A buy-side position would trigger from the current area. In our conservative bullish scenario, we expect a bounce that could reach the previous high at 77.04 as a psychological resistance. 

The bullish scenario will be invalid if the price drops and closes below the level 74.75.

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Trading Plan Summary

Categories
Forex Signals

Gold Could Decline in its Firth Wave

Description

Gold, in its 2-hour chart, shows an intraday recovery after the bearish sequence started on April 14th when the price found sellers at $1,747.47 per ounce.

Once the price soared above the upper line of the ascending channel and sellers pulled-down the precious metal, Gold began to develop a downward movement. This sequence looks like the third wave of Subminuette degree identified in green.

If our intraday analysis is correct, the recovery observed on Monday’s session should reach the zone between 38.2% and 50% of the third wave.

On the other hand, the RSI oscillator bounced and didn’t surpass the level 60, which make us foresee further declines.

The sell-side position will activate at the psychological level at $1,700 per ounce. As a conservative scenario, we expect a re-test of the previous low at $1,670, which would correspond to the fifth wave of Subminuette degree in green.

Finally, our bearish setup will be invalid if the price soars and closes above $1,725 per ounce.

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Trading Plan Summary

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave

Complex Corrective Waves Analysis – Advanced Level – Part 1 of 2

Introduction

Complex corrective waves are groups of waves that do not have an internal structure subdivided into three or five waves. In general, complex corrections tend to appear in waves fourth or B. Moreover, these formations are divided into two categories standard and non-standard.

Standard Type

An impulsive or corrective Standard wave formation does not imply that it is formed by a series of three or five adjacent segments. Usually, one of its corrective waves will possess a greater number of internal subdivisions creating a more extensive structure in terms of time. This condition will create a context in which can verify the alternation principle.

If the standard complex wave is in an impulsive sequence, it may be in wave 2 or 4. Otherwise, if this complex wave appears in a corrective phase, it will be between waves A and B.

The following figure shows a simplification of standard complex waves in an impulsive sequence and a corrective structure.

Non-Standard Type

Complex corrections only occur if there are at least two corrective sequences compacted in their three-wave structure and separated by a corrective formation that acts as a connector between the two corrective patterns. This type of waves must be given under certain conditions; likewise, they must meet specific rules that occur only once the waves have been compacted.

Retracement Rules

If the wave analyst found a compact corrective pattern that confirms a retrace less than 61.8%, or greater than 161.8% by the next corrective wave, and then produces another corrective wave, then the wave analyst should analyze the corrective structure as says the specifications section.

If the grouping conditions commented previously don’t meet, then the corrective structure shall be standard. In this case, the wave analyst should work the corrective sequence in the same way as discussed in the section “Corrective wave analysis – Intermediate level.”

On the other hand, the extension or duration in the time of the corrective wave doesn’t affect its analysis. A complex corrective structure can last for days and even years without this changing its structure. In this context, the wave analyst must maintain order in the use of the labels of each formation.

Non-standard Complex Wave Specifications

The first principle of a complex corrective wave implies the existence of a wave X, which acts as a connector for two standard Elliott corrective wave formations. The wave analyst should keep in mind that this point is the key to understanding non-standard patterns.

There exist two conditions to recognize the behavior of waves x.

  1. The first condition indicating the development of a wave x occurs when two compact corrective waves of a higher degree are separated by an intermediate corrective wave, which may be standard or non-standard. The first corrective wave must experience a retrace of less than 61.8% from the intermediate wave. In general, the wave x (or intermediate wave) will have a lower level of complexity than the other two corrective structures.
  2. If the price action reveals three corrective waves compacted consecutively, so that the second correction is at least 161.8% higher than the first, then it is highly likely that the second corrective structure will be a wave x. In general, the three complex waves will have the same complexity level.

If the market develops one of the two conditions commented previously, the market has likely developed a non-standard corrective formation.

Conclusions

In this educational article, we discussed the fundamental principles of a complex corrective structure and the importance of wave compaction in identifying and analyzing wave structures. 

In previous chapters, we have seen how to recognize the principle of alternation in the analysis of both impulsive and corrective waves. In this sense, the wave analyst must take into account this concept, which will allow him to identify what will be the next most likely movement.

In particular, R.N. Elliott, in his work “The Wave Principle,” defines the alternation of corrective waves and their complexity as follows “if a corrective wave is simple, the following will be complex, and vice versa.” Within a complex corrective structure, the compacted corrective patterns that compose it will also alternate with each other.

In the next article, we will look at the construction of complex corrective waves according to each condition. 

Suggested Readings

  • Neely, G.; Mastering Elliott Wave: Presenting the Neely Method; Windsor Books; 2nd Edition (1990).
  • Prechter, R.; The Major Works of R. N. Elliott; New Classics Library; 2nd Edition (1990).
Categories
Forex Signals

EURJPY Advances in an Ending Diagonal Pattern

Description

EURJPY, in its 2-hour chart, shows the completion of second bearish move corresponding to a wave ((b)) of Minute degree identified in black.

The short-term Elliott wave structure calls for the completion of a wave (c) labeled in blue, which corresponds to an Ending Diagonal pattern. At the same time, its internal sequence shows that the EURJPY cross moves in its fifth inner segment.

On the other hand, the expected weakness in the Japanese currency could be accompanied by the current risk-on sentiment in the stock market.

The next path after the bearish sequence completion, the cross should begin an upward sequence corresponding to wave ((c)) in black, which in our conservative scenario could reach the end of the second wave of Subminuette degree in green at level 117.942. 

The level that invalidates our bullish scenario locates at 116.247.

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Trading Plan Summary

Categories
Forex Signals

NZDJPY Progress in a Potential Leading Diagonal Pattern

Description

The NZDJPY cross in its hourly chart illustrates the progress in a potential leading diagonal pattern. This Elliott wave formation calls for further upsides in the coming sessions.

According to Elliott wave theory, the leading diagonal is a five-wave formation subdivided in a 3-3-3-3-3 internal sequence, in where its five segments overlapped one each other tends to appear in a first wave.

Our bullish scenario considers the upside corresponding to its fifth wave of Minute degree identified in black, from the level 64.035, with a potential profit target at 65.830. The invalidation level locates at 63.184, which corresponds to the end of the second wave in black.

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Trading Plan Summary

  • Entry Level: 64.035
  • Protective Stop: 63.184
  • Profit Target: 65.83
  • Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.39
  • Position Size: 0.01 lot per $1,000 in account.
Categories
Forex Signals

Gold – Completed an Upward Sequence

Description

Gold, in its 2-hour chart, shows the completion of an upward five-wave sequence at $1,747.74 per ounce on Tuesday 14th.

The last bullish move corresponds to wave (v) of the Minuette degree labeled in blue. At the same time, we observe the thrust developed by the yellow metal as a false breakout. This movement warns us about the potential upward sequence completion.

On the other hand, we observe the bullish trendline in the fifth wave of Subminuette degree in green pierced. This bearish reaction gives us a second argument for the exhaustion of the bullish sequence.

In conclusion, we consider a sell-side position at $1,718 per ounce, with a potential bearish target at $1,673.64 per ounce. This level converges with the end of the third wave of Subminuette degree in green.

Our bearish scenario will be invalid if the yellow metal surges and closes above $1,753 per ounce.

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Trading Plan Summary

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Elliott Wave Guide Forex Elliott Wave

Intermediate Level Elliott Wave Analysis Guide

We have finished the section that covers the Intermediate Level of the Elliott Wave Analysis based on the work of Glenn Neely. These concepts are described and include the following aspects.

1.- Introduction to Intermediate Wave Analysis. In this section, we present the concept of grouping waves and how to apply them in the real market.
2.- Motive Waves Analysis. This section, divided into three parts covers the following aspects:
– The first part presents the extension concept and its application in the real market.
– The second part extends the concepts of Alternation, Equality, and Superposition, and we identified how the price action follows these rules.
– The third part presents the canalization process.
3.- Corrective Waves Analysis. This part unfolded in five parts, includes the following concepts:
– The first part reviews the rules of construction of corrective formations and the flat pattern, including its variations.
– The second part presents how to analyze the zigzag pattern and its variations.
– The third part exposes the characteristics and rules of the triangle pattern.
– The fourth part discusses the contracting triangle, including its variations, rules, and target zones.
– The fifth part dedicated to expanding triangles presents its variations and rules.
4.- Validation Rules. This two-part section exposes the next principles:
– In the first part, we learn how to validate impulsive waves.
– The second part shows how to validate corrective waves.
5.- Simplification of Wave Analysis. This last section illustrates how the compaction process can help the wave analyst to ease its analysis.

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave

How to Simplify Wave Analysis – Intermediate Level

Introduction

How to simplify wave analysis can seem a confusing task. However, if we consider the concepts we have previously studied, the process may be more straightforward. 

Until now, we have studied concepts and principles such as types of waves, internal characteristics of each kind of pattern, wave channeling rules, price and time alternation, and wave validation criteria, among other aspects.

In this section, we will see procedures in which we will transform the complexity into a basic market structure.

Waves Compaction

Compaction is the analysis process in which a sequence of adjacent segments that make up an impulse or correction structure (5 or 3) is grouped. Given the dynamic nature of price action, any Elliott wave pattern, once completed, can be labeled as impulsive or corrective. Therefore, this technique cannot be applied, while Elliott’s formation is in progress.

Once an Elliott wave pattern has been completed, the structure of the series can be compacted, which will make as a basic structure. Then, the formation we will use as a base in the following process for the analysis and compaction can be repeated.

Regrouping

Regrouping is the process you perform after compacting waves. At this stage, the wave analyst will use the compacted wave as the base structure of the following wave group and thus construct a series of larger waves, which may be standard or non-standard.

Integration

Integration is the process in which the wave analyst uses short-term compacted waves to form larger wave structures to be included in long-term charts. For example, once a short-term wave pattern is completed, this structure can be transferred with its labels to the long-term (or higher degree) chart. 

This process can be useful for information references when comparing short-term and long-term graphs to obtain a more logical and accurate idea of the next market movement.

The Principle of Complexity

This principle is useful for the classification of subdivisions of an Elliott pattern. Its usefulness lies in the possibility of combining large scale patterns and determining the relative name of the degree of each segment.

In other words, when a wave advances in the short term, it is straightforward to identify each segment and thus identify and label wave pattern. As time progresses, this wave increases its complexity, and the process of compacting waves is required. Once the wave is compacted, another wave is completed on a higher degree. 

Consequently, the complexity tends to grow as the waves increase, and they combine to give way to new waves.

The principle of complexity may not be relevant in the short-term analysis. However, as the horizon of analysis increases, the usefulness of this principle becomes essential. In this respect, the Elliott guidelines identified at the same consecutive level, have the same degree.

The Concept of Degree

Until now, we have used the term Degree superficially referring to an ambiguous time horizon as short, mid, or long term. 

In Elliott wave theory, the degree is not related to a specific timeframe, for example, 15 minutes, an hour, 5-day, etc. It is related to the order in which the different wave patterns are completed. 

R.N. Elliott, in his Treatise “The Wave Principle,” states that both labeling and degrees are not the ultimate purpose of wave analysis, but are an instrument that allows keeping an order to be maintained within the analysis process.

A wave degree is determined by the wave compacting process from the short to the long-term. Once the short term wave has been completed, it will be a segment in a higher time range or greater degree.

R.N. Elliott defined the following degrees to classify the order of market movements.

  • Subminuette
  • Minuette
  • Minute
  • Minor
  • Intermediate
  • Primary
  • Cycle
  • Supercycle
  • Grand Supercycle

The different degrees are represented in increasing order in terms of temporal magnitude. 

On the other hand, Prechter & Frost, in their work “Elliott Wave Principle,” incorporated six additional degrees, as shown in the following table.

In practical terms, to have a reference to the temporality to be used in the analysis process, when Elliott developed wave theory, the smallest data time range available corresponded to the hourly graph. Consequently, the wave analyst can begin by assigning the Subminuette degree to the wave structures that are completed in this temporality and thus advance successively from there.

Conclusions

In this article, we have seen how a systematic process can simplify the process of wave analysis.

The wave analyst can simplify the market analysis helped by the use of the compaction process, which should be realized once completed a wave pattern. Later, by using grades and labels, the wave analyst will be able to maintain a simplified order in the study and, in turn, make a forecast of the next most likely market movement.

In the following article, we’ll start the advanced level of the wave analysis with the study of complex corrective waves.

Suggested Readings

  • Neely, G.; Mastering Elliott Wave: Presenting the Neely Method; Windsor Books; 2nd Edition (1990).
  • Prechter, R.; The Major Works of R. N. Elliott; New Classics Library; 2nd Edition (1990).
  • Prechter, R., Frost.A.J.; Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior; New Classic Library; 10th Edition (2005).

 

Categories
Forex Elliott Wave

Validation Rules of Corrective Waves – Intermediate Level

Introduction

Contrary to the case of impulsive waves, corrections do not require a sequence of retracements. The confirmation of the corrective patterns depends on the lengths of waves A and B within the correction. 

The validation of a corrective structure is defined in two stages. If both stages are verified, then the wave analyst will be sure that the corrective formation is correct. It should be noted that there is the possibility that only one of the two stages is validated; this does not limit that the pattern being valid.

Flats and Zigzag Patterns

Case 1 – Wave A is Larger than Wave B

In this case, the wave analyst must draw a trendline linking the origin of waves A and the end of B.

The first stage will verify the authenticity of the corrective formation if the price action violates the trendline O-B within a period equal to or less than the interval of wave C formation.

In case the time-lapse is longer, then the price action could be developing a terminal structure, or wave 4 of wave C could be incomplete, or the corrective pattern analyzed is not correct.

If the analyzed pattern is correct, then the second stage must be revised. In this stage, the wave analyst must study time lapsed in the complete retracement of wave C, which must be in a time equal to or less than the time spent in the formation of the wave C.

Case 2 – Wave B is Larger than Wave A

In this case, the first stage would fulfill if the wave C undergoes a complete reversal in the same or shorter time when the time lapsed in the wave C construction. 

The second stage will fulfill if the price action exceeds the trendline O-B in a period less than or equal to the time that took the wave C formation.

Triangles

As we have seen in previous articles, there are two types of triangles, contracting and expanding. Unlike flat and zigzag patterns, where the first stage of validation consists of the violation of the trendline O-B, in the case of triangles, the trendline B-D violation is the one considered.

Contracting triangles are the easiest to validate after the violation of the trendline B-D. However, this does not happen in the same way in expanding triangles. 

In expanding triangles, validation comes determined through the “no confirmation.” That is, once the wave E finishes, the price action should not reverse the advance of wave E completely. 

Therefore, this retracement would discard out any possible violation of the guideline B-D, or it would take longer to reverse the advance of the wave E than the duration of the wave E.

Validation of a Contracting Triangle

As mentioned above, in the case of triangles, the guideline B-D is used instead of the line O-B. The first stage of validation of the contracting triangle pattern will occur if the price exceeds the line B-D for a period less than or equal to the time it took to construct the wave E.

The second stage is defined by the thrust that occurs after the wave E in a triangle, which should exceed the highest (or lowest) price achieved by the triangle. In turn, the thrust should finish within a time range that not exceeding 50% of the duration of the triangle.

Conclusions

In this educational article, we have seen that the criteria for validation of corrective waves differ from impulsive waves in terms of the conditions to consider for a valid pattern. 

Also, we reviewed the importance of validating each structure under analysis. That will help the wave analyst to verify if the pattern identified is correct or not. 

This knowledge will allow the analyst to facilitate the realization of forecasts on the potential next movement of the market.

In the next educational article, we will review some key concepts for the process of analyzing waves such as wave compaction, degrees, and introduce the concept of complexity in the wave analysis.

Suggested Readings

  • Neely, G.; Mastering Elliott Wave: Presenting the Neely Method; Windsor Books; 2nd Edition (1990).
Categories
Forex Signals

Gold – Watchout the Upward Cycle Completion

Description

Gold, in its 2-hour chart, shows the exhaustion signals of the upward sequence developed by the yellow metal in five waves.

The ascending move belongs to a wave ((c)) of Minute degree labeled in black, and its internal subdivision in five waves looks complete after the price topped at $1,6783.6 per ounce on Monday 06th.

Watching inside of the fifth wave of Minuette degree identified in blue, we observe the five-wave subdivision and the ascending channel in where the price soared above the upper-line. This thrust leads us to foresee the exhaustion of the upward sequence and the potential declines for the following trading sessions.

A bearish position will activate if the price closes below the $1,647.7 per ounce. Our conservative bearish target locates at the end of wave iv of Subminuette degree labeled in green at $1,599.70 per ounce. The invalidation level of our bearish scenario is located at $1,675.7.

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Trading Plan Summary

Categories
Forex Signals

GBPJPY – Bullish Continuation Setup

Description

The GBPJPY cross in its 2-hour chart shows the sideways movement, which and the test of the psychological support at level-134. 

The consolidation above this level, and the absence of a reversal pattern, suggests the possibility of an upward movement which could drive the cross until 136.75 level.  

The level that invalidates our bullish scenario locates at 132.7

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Trading Plan Summary